1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: The Super Bowl felt like an eternity ago, but now 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,280 Week one is back. This is bad on it. Let's 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:26,039 get into the Week one NFL slate. Kelly Stewart here 4 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:31,359 with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek guys. We've been 5 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,520 anticipating this moment for a really long time. These lines 6 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,359 have been out basically since May. I feel like we 7 00:00:37,399 --> 00:00:40,560 have talked about the NFL at nauseum here at wager 8 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,679 talk dot com, whether it's divisional previews, super Bowl previews, 9 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,679 regular season win totals. I'm ready for the season to 10 00:00:48,679 --> 00:00:52,320 get started, but I'm already sweating my survivor pick. We're 11 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:53,960 gonna get into some of those here in just a 12 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,960 little bit, but first we're gonna geto those primetime games. 13 00:00:57,079 --> 00:01:00,320 Thursday Night football. Dallas is an eight point under dog 14 00:01:00,359 --> 00:01:03,920 at Philadelphia forty seven and a half. Here is the 15 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,599 total VR break down this NFC East rivalry. 16 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,359 Speaker 2: Well, listen, gun to my head. You're going to force 17 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,599 me to take the points here with the Dallas Cowboy, 18 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,560 especially now that it's up over a touchdown. This was 19 00:01:15,599 --> 00:01:17,879 at six and a half at one point, got the seven, 20 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,239 seven and a half, now eight, You could even find 21 00:01:20,239 --> 00:01:22,239 eight and a half and who knows where it will 22 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,560 end once the teasers start rolling in, and the books 23 00:01:25,599 --> 00:01:29,359 have to protect themselves against the teaser. So the possibility 24 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,000 that gets up to that nine is a lot greater 25 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:35,000 than it getting back to seven, because if the betting 26 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,480 syndicates were going to get down on Dallas, they would 27 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,000 have done it already able to get eight. Eight and 28 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,920 a half's out there, So be cautious there. And if 29 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,159 you like Dallas, I think you should wait. If you 30 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,439 like the Eagles, you probably missed the boat because, like 31 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,400 I said, it should just continue to climb as the 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,879 teasers start rolling in. But look at the history of 33 00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:01,200 this series. Last year Eagles dominated. That's a rarity. If 34 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,000 you look over the last ten games, I don't even 35 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,879 have to look flip a coin. I bet they're close 36 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:07,760 to fifty to fifty. You look over the last twenty 37 00:02:07,959 --> 00:02:10,759 games between these two, don't have to look flip a coin. 38 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,840 Close to fifty to fifty. Whom away really doesn't matter. 39 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,199 Like they each team is probably one five or the 40 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,439 last ten straight up, the other team won five at 41 00:02:19,439 --> 00:02:21,919 the other five. One cover five, the other covered the 42 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,719 other five. Like that, they just split. They play tough 43 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,960 games regardless of the type of season. It's just that 44 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,159 kind of rivalry. And I think Dallas is I don't 45 00:02:32,199 --> 00:02:35,560 expect Dallas to have a great season. I bet to 46 00:02:35,719 --> 00:02:38,039 know that they will not make the playoffs. But this 47 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,919 is Week one. You've had time to prepare for one 48 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,759 team and one team only, and you know the super 49 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,479 Bowl champs are who you're playing. Not only a rival, 50 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,840 but they're now they're defending super Bowl champs. I think 51 00:02:51,039 --> 00:02:54,719 all the concern about Dallas is now defensive line. I 52 00:02:54,719 --> 00:02:58,400 don't think that's going to be a problem. They were 53 00:02:58,439 --> 00:03:01,680 loaded before that. I think they're going to give the 54 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,879 Eagles some pressure there because that's what the Eagles are 55 00:03:03,879 --> 00:03:06,960 gonna have to do. Protect Hurts, get that running game going. 56 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,120 But let's not forget Barkley's coming off of two thousand 57 00:03:10,159 --> 00:03:13,479 yard season, you got to expect a regression. In fact, 58 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,199 you got to expect the regression from the entire Eagles 59 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:20,599 offense that had that kind of outlier season. Just look 60 00:03:20,599 --> 00:03:23,800 at the red zone efficiency. Finally talking about the red 61 00:03:23,879 --> 00:03:27,960 zone efficiency, if you look at the Eagles have one 62 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,199 of the top five home field advantages in the NFL 63 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,240 going into twenty twenty five season, With that said, for Dallas, 64 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,680 it really doesn't matter. In fact, they did better on 65 00:03:36,719 --> 00:03:39,879 the road last season, and that was one of their problems, 66 00:03:39,879 --> 00:03:42,919 that red zone efficiency. They were thirty first in the NFL. 67 00:03:43,479 --> 00:03:45,120 You got to be able to put points up on 68 00:03:45,159 --> 00:03:47,800 the board when you get into the red zone. That 69 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,919 has to do with a lot of luck, and luck 70 00:03:52,039 --> 00:03:55,639 tends to regress and progress towards the mean, like you 71 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,800 can't continue to get lucky or unlucky forever. And I 72 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,840 think Dallas had a lot of bad luck last year, 73 00:04:01,919 --> 00:04:04,520 especially if you look at turnover margin and all of that. 74 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,879 But like I said, with them doing better offensively in 75 00:04:07,919 --> 00:04:10,639 the red zone, book more so defensively in the red zone, 76 00:04:11,479 --> 00:04:15,120 regardless of playing home or away, it's almost been the same, 77 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,199 something better on the road at times. I got to 78 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,920 take the points here again, rivalry game. I haven't gotten 79 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,439 to the window yet. They may force me if it 80 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,399 continues to climb, But I like the dog here, dogger 81 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:27,040 pass for me. 82 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,399 Speaker 1: All right, Viera, let's kind of talk about some of 83 00:04:29,399 --> 00:04:31,120 those teasers. I know you and I break them down 84 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,399 on Last Call every single Sunday this year, it's gonna 85 00:04:34,399 --> 00:04:36,240 be hosted by Aaron Epstein, so I can have a 86 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,160 day off. That being said, I'll still be watching because 87 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,639 I want to know the most efficient markets, as we 88 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,160 know in the NFL, will be Sunday morning. So you 89 00:04:44,199 --> 00:04:47,399 always say wait to bet the teasers. Yeah, I do 90 00:04:47,439 --> 00:04:49,800 a show on Monday. It's called Opening Line Report, and 91 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:51,720 I don't want to see if you agree with Teddy Covers, 92 00:04:51,759 --> 00:04:54,800 he said he's not betting any Week one teasers and 93 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,759 there's so many available. Tell me why you don't think 94 00:04:58,759 --> 00:05:01,639 anybody should or should not be betting teasers this week 95 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,040 and including the Philadelphia Eagles in it. 96 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 2: No, I think you should. In fact, it's even better 97 00:05:08,199 --> 00:05:11,920 in Week one to use teasers in the NFL because 98 00:05:11,959 --> 00:05:16,279 the mean absolute error is closer, meaning the average NFL 99 00:05:16,399 --> 00:05:21,279 game okay, finishes ten point two points off the point 100 00:05:21,319 --> 00:05:24,279 spread on average. So even though we say that Vegas 101 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,920 is is so sharp, they're so on point the fact 102 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,519 that they're not trying to predict the outcome with a 103 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:35,720 point spread. This is a perfect reflection of that because 104 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,920 again on average, they are ten point two points off 105 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,800 of the point spread compared to the final score. In 106 00:05:43,879 --> 00:05:47,360 Week one that drops to nine point nine okay, so 107 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,560 even a little less when you're using the teaser, that's 108 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,680 what you want. You want the game to fall near 109 00:05:53,759 --> 00:05:56,600 the point spread. That's where it helps you. But what 110 00:05:56,639 --> 00:05:59,399 you have to remember with the teaser is this. Okay, 111 00:06:00,399 --> 00:06:04,959 the even money teasers are no longer available. Okay, if 112 00:06:04,959 --> 00:06:08,160 you could find minus one twenty on a six point teaser, 113 00:06:08,879 --> 00:06:13,240 your break even is seventy four point one percent. That's 114 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,720 what your break even is. Okay. If you're able to 115 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:22,279 go through the key numbers of three and seven, you 116 00:06:22,319 --> 00:06:25,879 will win about seventy six percent of those bets, so 117 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,959 your break even is seventy four. You'll win about seventy 118 00:06:29,079 --> 00:06:32,639 six so you'll have about a two percent edge over 119 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,519 the books. At minus one twenty, most can still even 120 00:06:36,519 --> 00:06:39,120 get minus one twenty. Most are in betting one twenty 121 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,720 five's even one thirties. You can't go above one thirty. 122 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,439 I say, don't even go above moneth twenty five if possible, 123 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,480 because again you're making your edge even smaller, maybe a 124 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,480 one percent edge, and you're gonna have a lot of 125 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,839 volatility that way, which is why we've changed it up. 126 00:06:56,879 --> 00:06:58,759 With how I do it, I like to look at 127 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,920 more closer to the closes the line because I want 128 00:07:00,959 --> 00:07:03,800 the market to be as efishing as possible. You don't 129 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:07,160 want an inefficient market with teasers, because you're only going 130 00:07:07,199 --> 00:07:10,800 to catch your teaser if the game lands near the number. 131 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:14,279 Keep that in mind. So again, going through three and six, 132 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,920 if you're able to lay one twenty or better, you'll 133 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,240 have about a two percent edge over the books laying 134 00:07:19,279 --> 00:07:24,199 one twenty five or worse. That edge lessons because again, 135 00:07:24,319 --> 00:07:29,160 you gotta win seventy four point one percent at getting 136 00:07:29,279 --> 00:07:32,240 six points on the teaser. That's your break even at 137 00:07:32,279 --> 00:07:34,519 minus one twenty at minus one twenty. 138 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: All right, I appreciate that look into some of the 139 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,600 teasers and your opinion on Week one teasers. There's just 140 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,040 so many. We'll get to some more of these games 141 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:44,959 that fall with in that, but first we got to 142 00:07:44,959 --> 00:07:48,800 go to Sunday night football. We've seen this one balance 143 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,879 all over the place. Buffalo minus one and a half 144 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,720 Baltimore pick them fifteen and a half is pretty much 145 00:07:53,759 --> 00:07:56,759 where the total has started to subside. I know some 146 00:07:56,959 --> 00:07:59,879 under money came in early. And here's how I have 147 00:07:59,879 --> 00:08:02,160 to look at this one. All right, These two teams 148 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,240 have played six times since twenty eighteen. I got three 149 00:08:05,279 --> 00:08:09,879 wins apiece Baltimore did have that nice home win last 150 00:08:09,959 --> 00:08:12,839 year during the regular season, but guess what the Bills 151 00:08:12,879 --> 00:08:16,000 got the one that mattered in the playoffs. That one 152 00:08:16,079 --> 00:08:19,000 was no fun for me and my Lamar Jackson and 153 00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:22,199 Baltimore ravens super Bowl future which would have cashed because 154 00:08:22,199 --> 00:08:24,519 it was parlayed with the Florida Gators. I don't want 155 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:26,839 to talk about it. I know why the under money's 156 00:08:26,879 --> 00:08:29,199 come in six one and one in the last eight 157 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,279 meetings between these two. Look, let's take out everything we 158 00:08:33,279 --> 00:08:36,240 saw in preseason. Let's take out everything we saw last year. 159 00:08:37,159 --> 00:08:40,320 Let's look at these two teams on Sunday night football. 160 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:41,960 I don't think there's a lot of value here. The 161 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,720 Bills don't lose games at home. Baltimore the rubber is 162 00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:49,759 meeting the road. I had the pleasure of recording the 163 00:08:49,799 --> 00:08:53,039 press yesterday and he said, Lamar Jackson is two in 164 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:57,240 consistent and I said, wait what, we are not blaming 165 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,080 Lamar for that playoff loss last year. I do think 166 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,960 that betting against Josh Allen is not fun. I also 167 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,240 think betting against Lamar is not fun. I do also 168 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,039 think you've got to take the better defense here, and 169 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,399 that is Baltimore, So give me the pick them, give 170 00:09:13,399 --> 00:09:15,759 me the plus one and a half, of course, because 171 00:09:15,759 --> 00:09:18,320 you should be shopping around on your odds logic screen. 172 00:09:18,919 --> 00:09:21,960 Marco DiAngelo, I'm kicking it to you. I know that 173 00:09:22,039 --> 00:09:24,600 wasn't a very definitive Ravens at a pick them because 174 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,240 I'm not going to get there with my hard earned money. 175 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,120 But something for our audience to look at, Will you 176 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,759 beginning to the window on Monday Night football with your 177 00:09:32,799 --> 00:09:35,440 hard earned money? Vikings minus one and a half Chicago 178 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,159 forty three and a half is the total? 179 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,039 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, you look at this one in We've seen 180 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,360 the line move in this one as well. Chicago opened 181 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,679 the favorite in this one minus one and a half, 182 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,159 and we've seen it do a complete flip to the 183 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:52,840 Vikings being one and a half point favorite, And to 184 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:54,679 be honest with you, they should have been the favorite 185 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:59,000 from the start. They are fundamentally the better team. While 186 00:09:59,039 --> 00:10:02,759 a public opinion and sees it differently, most people expect 187 00:10:02,759 --> 00:10:05,600 the Bears to be improved this year, especially with the 188 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:10,120 hiring of the Detroit Lion offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as 189 00:10:10,159 --> 00:10:13,039 the head coach. We all know how bad the head 190 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,960 coaching has been in Chicago the last few years, so 191 00:10:17,399 --> 00:10:23,039 definitely an upgrade there. Also, it's an automatic public opinion 192 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,799 that a rookie quarterback is going to have a better 193 00:10:26,879 --> 00:10:29,960 year in his second year. That's just, you know, the 194 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:35,399 way you think of progression. But don't be sold on that. 195 00:10:35,879 --> 00:10:38,480 A couple of reasons we've seen quarterbacks in the past. 196 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,639 The one that comes to mind most recently is CJ. 197 00:10:41,799 --> 00:10:45,799 Stroud had a fantastic rookie season and then took a 198 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,000 little bit of a step backwards in the year two. 199 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:53,320 We're going to see that the question be presented in 200 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:57,559 Washington this year. We saw Daniels have a great rookie season. 201 00:10:57,639 --> 00:11:01,320 Will he duplicate that this year year. Here's the thing 202 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,159 when a quarterback of rookies in there, you don't know 203 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,840 what their tendencies are. You don't know what their strengths 204 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:11,080 and weaknesses are. Yet you've got gain film from college. Okay, 205 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,200 you don't know properly how to gain plan them when 206 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,919 you've had a full year of them in the NFL. 207 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:22,600 Defensive coordinators are going to prepare differently now to make 208 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:26,559 matters worse. But it could be plus as well for Chicago. 209 00:11:26,639 --> 00:11:29,879 Depends which way you look at it. Caleb Williams is 210 00:11:29,879 --> 00:11:32,399 going to have to learn a new offense this year, Okay, 211 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,639 And I go back to Cleveland and Baker Mayfield and 212 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,440 remember how many offensive coordinators and head coaches he went 213 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,840 through early on his career, and I think it really 214 00:11:42,919 --> 00:11:46,559 hurt him because he had no consistency early on. We've 215 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,799 seen he's played much better since he's had stability at Tampa. 216 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,840 Caleb Williams, this could be a breakout season for him 217 00:11:53,919 --> 00:11:57,399 under Ben Johnson, but there's gonna be a learning curve. Okay. 218 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,480 They didn't get a lot of playing time in pre season, 219 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,320 and again, what do you learn in preseason going against 220 00:12:03,399 --> 00:12:06,960 vanilla defenses. He is going against one of the best 221 00:12:07,159 --> 00:12:11,120 defenses in the NFL. And the question mark with Minnesota 222 00:12:11,159 --> 00:12:14,000 this year is JJ McCarthy. What's he going to be 223 00:12:14,039 --> 00:12:17,399 at quarterback? We know what the Vikings did last year. 224 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:22,159 Sam Donald had a career year, led them to the 225 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,159 playoffs and it fell apart in the end there, but 226 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:29,440 they had a fantastic season. If you remember, before Sam 227 00:12:29,519 --> 00:12:32,440 Donald took over, the only reason he took over was 228 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:36,440 JJ McCarthy got hurt in preseason. This was supposed to 229 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:40,440 be McCarthy's team. So that great success last year that 230 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,159 Minnesota had, was it Donald or was it the system. 231 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,600 I'm gonna go with the system and Kevin O'Connell. I 232 00:12:47,639 --> 00:12:50,759 think he's a great offensive mind, and I think Minnesota 233 00:12:50,799 --> 00:12:53,200 is going to be just fine. I think heading into 234 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,480 week one, going on the road on a Monday night 235 00:12:56,559 --> 00:13:00,600 football's not ideal. The crowd will be crazy night home 236 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:06,799 field slight home dog. But I've got the better team, 237 00:13:07,039 --> 00:13:10,639 I think roster wise with Minnesota, I think they are 238 00:13:10,759 --> 00:13:13,759 better set to start the season. It's just gonna be 239 00:13:13,759 --> 00:13:16,799 plug and play with McCarthy and I'm gonna go with 240 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,360 the better defense here and we're gonna take Minnesota. Should 241 00:13:20,399 --> 00:13:23,840 be a fun game on Monday night football. Don't expect 242 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,080 to shootout, but I'm gonna take the Vikings on Monday 243 00:13:27,159 --> 00:13:28,519 night to open up the season. 244 00:13:29,519 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 1: All right, Bear's another possible teaser spot there, but we're 245 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:37,120 gonna just digress and get right into the steam report. 246 00:13:37,159 --> 00:13:43,000 Get those odds Logic screens, open oddslogic dot com, backslash 247 00:13:43,039 --> 00:13:48,279 ace Ace to get yourself a one week free trial VR. 248 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,480 That train is running down the tracks and I need 249 00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:53,879 to know these lines have been out for months. But 250 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,120 let's hear who's getting steamed here leading up to NFL 251 00:13:57,159 --> 00:13:57,600 Week one. 252 00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:02,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm gonna focus in on the moves that 253 00:14:02,879 --> 00:14:06,200 got multiple groups on top of them, and where I 254 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:10,240 haven't seen resistance. Start off Friday, Kansas City and the 255 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,320 Chargers over forty four over forty five is the public 256 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:17,480 that's also betting that game over that'll probably keep pushing 257 00:14:17,519 --> 00:14:21,440 that number. Go on to Sunday four fifty eight, Indianapolis 258 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,879 Colts at a pick them for sixty, Jacksonville minus two 259 00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:29,440 and a half and three for sixty four, Cleveland plus 260 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:33,440 the six and over forty five for six seven, Arizona 261 00:14:33,679 --> 00:14:36,080 for minus four and a half up to minus six, 262 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,679 Detroit and green Bay under forty nine and a half, 263 00:14:39,879 --> 00:14:43,879 forty nine and under forty eight, Houston and the Rams 264 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,720 under forty six four seventy nine, Baltimore plus two and 265 00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:53,039 the under fifty three and fifty two, and finally Minnesota 266 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:56,440 from plus one to minus one. So those are some 267 00:14:56,559 --> 00:14:59,799 of the NFL moves, But keep your eye on odds 268 00:14:59,799 --> 00:15:03,919 lit heading into the weekend, you'll start to see a 269 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:08,120 lot of movement. That's when they'll start taking advantage of 270 00:15:08,159 --> 00:15:11,639 a lot of the first quarter lines, first half lines 271 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:17,639 player props, especially as the public gets to the window 272 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,600 and starts forcing a lot of line moves, because again, 273 00:15:20,639 --> 00:15:23,039 even though the public doesn't get respect, they bet a 274 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,240 lot of money when it comes to the NFL, and 275 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,120 money moves lines. When the books have a ton of risk, 276 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,679 they're going to try to entice action the other way. 277 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,720 They got to write some tickets on the other side, 278 00:15:33,159 --> 00:15:34,799 and that's where you'll see a lot of bettings that 279 00:15:34,799 --> 00:15:37,559 gets getting involved on game day. So best of luck, 280 00:15:37,559 --> 00:15:39,440 whether you follow or a fade, hope you do some damage 281 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:40,000 with the info. 282 00:15:40,799 --> 00:15:44,679 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into those barking dogs, my favorite 283 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,879 segment of course of each show, because I want to 284 00:15:47,879 --> 00:15:50,960 know who's running out right. I'm addicted to that plus money. 285 00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:53,840 There's been a lot of overlap. I'll say, I do 286 00:15:53,879 --> 00:15:57,600 a script for us on Mondays, Marco's like, damn, and 287 00:15:57,639 --> 00:15:59,320 I wanted this game. And then I go to type 288 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,039 it in in VRS already on it, and I try 289 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,000 to give you guys a lot of a parody here, right, 290 00:16:06,039 --> 00:16:08,679 instead of overlapping. But this was a game that I 291 00:16:08,919 --> 00:16:12,879 wanted as well. Marco, you like the New York Giants, 292 00:16:12,919 --> 00:16:17,000 tell me why maybe the Commanders are not a good 293 00:16:17,639 --> 00:16:18,960 survivor pick this week. 294 00:16:19,799 --> 00:16:22,799 Speaker 3: All right, Kelly, Well, there's plenty of excitement in Washington. 295 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:26,039 I alluded to that in the last segment. You've got 296 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,720 a rookie quarterback that had a sensational season, they made 297 00:16:29,799 --> 00:16:32,279 the run to the playoffs, they won a playoff game, 298 00:16:32,639 --> 00:16:38,720 so obviously expectations are high in Washington. Well, you know what, 299 00:16:39,159 --> 00:16:43,480 when expectations are high, that also means the line's going 300 00:16:43,519 --> 00:16:47,799 to be inflated. And we look at this one. Washington 301 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,279 comes in here as a six point favorite. Last year 302 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,480 when they played in the first meeting in Washington, the 303 00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:59,240 Commanders were just a one point favorite. Now, Washington did 304 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,919 win both me last year against the Giants, but they 305 00:17:01,919 --> 00:17:04,839 only won them by three and five points. Are you 306 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,519 going to tell me, really that there's that much of 307 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:11,640 a difference, uh this year from last year to this 308 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,759 year and these two teams that there's justifies a five 309 00:17:14,799 --> 00:17:18,839 point move from what the line was last year. Washington, Yeah, 310 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,160 on paper, they should be better, and you would expect 311 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,839 Daniels to have a progression this year, but as we said, 312 00:17:26,079 --> 00:17:30,079 that's not always the case. And the Giants, a division rival, 313 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,640 that knows this team well. And I've got to look 314 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,519 at this giant roster from this year to last year. 315 00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:41,599 You know, last year they were coping with life without Barkley. Uh, 316 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,039 this is year two. I think they're gonna be better. 317 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,880 You know, the quarterback situation, whether you like it or not, 318 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,839 Russell Wilson is going to be a little more have 319 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,960 stability for them. I think they stay in this game 320 00:17:55,079 --> 00:17:58,799 right to the end. And Washington is a young team 321 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,039 that's just learning how to win again. I can't lay 322 00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:05,400 six points with them in this one. In the home opener, 323 00:18:06,079 --> 00:18:08,480 I'm gonna go ahead take the Giants. I think this 324 00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:11,720 game goes right down to the wire fueld goal either way. 325 00:18:12,599 --> 00:18:15,480 Let's go ahead and make Kelly happy and make it 326 00:18:16,319 --> 00:18:19,960 the Giants twenty three to twenty pulling out the upset. 327 00:18:20,039 --> 00:18:22,519 And just you know, remember the last couple of years, 328 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:26,799 there's been one of those favorites that's been a home 329 00:18:26,839 --> 00:18:29,799 favorite that on paper has not looked like they could 330 00:18:29,799 --> 00:18:33,240 lose out right. Remember last year when the Cincinnati Bengals 331 00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:36,279 took out I think about half of the survivor pool 332 00:18:37,759 --> 00:18:41,720 here in town. Who's gonna be that monstrosity this year? 333 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,799 Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, trust me. I've looked at Eagles on 334 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,039 Thursday night. I've looked at the Commanders. I don't want 335 00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:50,200 to play the divisional game. We're gonna get doing the 336 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,720 best bat segment because it worked for me last year, 337 00:18:53,559 --> 00:18:58,480 at least from a survivor standpoint. We are the Jets. 338 00:18:58,599 --> 00:19:00,279 If you guys look on the odds logics and you 339 00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:04,480 can maybe find yourself a three VR. Let's talk about 340 00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:07,200 the Jets why you like them on the money line 341 00:19:07,279 --> 00:19:09,920 and the difference between that two and a half and 342 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,079 of course that three j. 343 00:19:12,279 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 2: E Ts Jets, Jets, Jets baby. Yeah again the NFL three. 344 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,319 They're charging so much now, like you can't even get 345 00:19:21,319 --> 00:19:24,720 it for less than minus one thirty in most spots 346 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:26,960 taking off the two and a half, like to go 347 00:19:27,079 --> 00:19:29,799 from minus from plus two and a half to plus three. 348 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:34,359 Most are now charging over that one thirty price. And 349 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,160 if that's what you're paying, don't do it. You're not 350 00:19:37,279 --> 00:19:43,119 getting a better number. You're paying for it, and based 351 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:46,559 on the money line that you're being charged, you're overpaying. 352 00:19:47,759 --> 00:19:49,440 So I know it makes you feel a little better 353 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:51,519 because three being such a key number and you thinking 354 00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:54,240 if the game lands three at least, I'll push the 355 00:19:54,279 --> 00:19:58,680 probability of it happening isn't high enough based on the 356 00:19:58,759 --> 00:20:02,759 vig they're charging for that half a point, So unless 357 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,359 you're getting it below the minus one thirty price, I 358 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,640 would not be buying half a points on and off 359 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,039 of the three. Again, there was a long time you 360 00:20:12,079 --> 00:20:14,440 were able to take advantage of that before it was 361 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,920 so widespread of how key of a number three is 362 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,160 and you were able to buy half a pointed a discount. 363 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,839 That is no longer the case here with the Jets. 364 00:20:26,039 --> 00:20:28,599 We did take the three. I released that through my 365 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,200 subscribers as a premium play. I like it on the 366 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,519 money line as well. It's almost a fade of Pittsburgh 367 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,519 as much as a bet on the Jets. What's Pittsburgh 368 00:20:39,519 --> 00:20:43,039 gonna do? I mean, they're a huge transformations taking place 369 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,240 in Pittsburgh, and it needed to because the way they 370 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,319 just collapsed down the stretch last year. You gotta remember, 371 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,079 this team got so lucky and they were still bad, 372 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,960 meaning only one team did better than them in turnover ratio, 373 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,960 and that was the Buffalo Bills. Otherwise, Pittsburgh was number 374 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,720 two with the number three team like four, turnovers were 375 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:09,039 less than Pittsburgh got. So Pittsburgh got very lucky and 376 00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:12,519 they still couldn't win and cover football games. That doesn't 377 00:21:12,559 --> 00:21:16,079 bode well coming into the twenty twenty five season. Now 378 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,680 all the hype around Rogers, not only Rogers in Pittsburgh, 379 00:21:20,759 --> 00:21:26,880 but now Rogers returning to play against his old team, 380 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,960 which you know, I didn't play long for the Jets. 381 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,880 Too much hype around that and just not enough time 382 00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,440 for that offense. Which I get it. He got the 383 00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:41,440 names there with Metcalf and Rogers, but it's going to 384 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:45,599 take a while to see how this offense plays together cohesively. 385 00:21:46,079 --> 00:21:49,400 And I just think you're being charged for that already. 386 00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,920 You're being charged for potential over credentials, and that's never 387 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,759 a good idea, especially laying points on the road. If 388 00:21:56,799 --> 00:22:00,559 they could contain JJ Watt, I think this is the 389 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:05,119 Jets game to lose. I like them here at home. 390 00:22:05,599 --> 00:22:07,559 I like what I'm seeing out of their new coach, 391 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:12,759 defensive minded, defense, defense, defense, and against this Pittsburgh Steeler team, 392 00:22:13,039 --> 00:22:16,480 that's exactly what you need to do. Give me the Jets, 393 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,279 take the points, sprinkle that money line. Jets start off 394 00:22:20,319 --> 00:22:21,839 one and oh all. 395 00:22:21,839 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 1: Right, I'm gonna take a small little doggie here myself, 396 00:22:25,799 --> 00:22:28,119 because this is a tough week. We know there's gonna 397 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,000 be upsets. We just have to kind of sit back 398 00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:33,480 and relax. But here is a game that I think 399 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:38,279 is a winnable game for the LA Chargers. Sounds so 400 00:22:38,319 --> 00:22:41,319 weird not to call them San Diego all these years. Look, 401 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,559 Kansas City has one eight of the last ten meetings, 402 00:22:44,559 --> 00:22:49,200 So why am I calling for them to lose this game? Well, 403 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,240 the last three have been decided by a total of 404 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,559 ten points. The Chargers have a real opportunity to win 405 00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:57,480 this one on a neutral field, which we hope the 406 00:22:57,519 --> 00:23:01,640 conditions are better than the last time they played in Brazil. 407 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:06,400 Patrick Mahomes basically has an all new receiving corps, plus 408 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,480 Rashie Rice is suspended. They had a turnover, a couple 409 00:23:09,559 --> 00:23:13,680 turnovers on the offensive line. No Joe Sony, no DJ Humphrees. 410 00:23:14,519 --> 00:23:18,079 I expect the Chargers to take advantage here of the 411 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,400 team with the Super Bowl hangover. We all know how 412 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,240 bad it is for the team that loses the Super 413 00:23:23,279 --> 00:23:26,400 Bowl to come out in the next season and get 414 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,240 a win Week one. I get it. It's the Kansas 415 00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:32,519 City Chiefs. You guys think that me betting against this 416 00:23:32,599 --> 00:23:36,039 team is not the smartest thing I've ever done. Would 417 00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:37,839 I have liked to have gotten the three and a half, 418 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,880 of course, But I do think that moved from three 419 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,960 and a half down to three over the summer tells 420 00:23:44,039 --> 00:23:47,759 us exactly what we need to know. Hey, look, Andy Reid, 421 00:23:47,799 --> 00:23:51,880 Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnolo and the Chiefs four and ten 422 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,480 against the spread in the last fourteen games. Think you're 423 00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:00,160 paying a premium here once again for the Chiefs. It's 424 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,000 just not that necessary. Could be a twenty one twenty final, 425 00:24:04,039 --> 00:24:06,519 and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see 426 00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:10,039 the Chiefs win by a game winning field goal. But 427 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:13,359 give me the Chargers plus the three. Give me the 428 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,839 Chargers on the money line. All right, guys, let's get 429 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,079 into get your trap. The trap game of the week 430 00:24:21,279 --> 00:24:24,319 can't be the sandwich unless Marco's feeding me open face sandwiches. 431 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,880 And it's right around lunchtime, so of course I'm hungry Marco. 432 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,079 Let's hear it. Who is the biggest trap on the 433 00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:30,839 board this week? 434 00:24:31,279 --> 00:24:33,839 Speaker 3: Okay, I'm just gonna make note, Kelly, you gave me 435 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:35,839 a lot of grief last year about always having a 436 00:24:35,839 --> 00:24:38,680 small dog, but I had the biggest dog this week. 437 00:24:38,759 --> 00:24:41,039 Speaker 1: Just making notice that you did, and I'm very proud 438 00:24:41,079 --> 00:24:44,599 of you. Listen. I would love to say that this 439 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,559 team that is your trap game, This is who I 440 00:24:46,599 --> 00:24:48,160 was gonna put in as my dog, by the way, 441 00:24:48,319 --> 00:24:49,799 but you're gonna get them out of your trap game. 442 00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:51,519 And I was like, we can't run it back to. 443 00:24:51,559 --> 00:24:55,519 Speaker 3: Back, no problem. And Kelly, much like I did with 444 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,480 the college trap game in week one, what did I say? 445 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,799 I like to I like to listen to the noise, 446 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,920 hear all the noise, and then I'm gonna go against 447 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,839 the noise and the noise that we heard last week. 448 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,640 It worked out well for us with Auburn against Baylor 449 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,200 in this spot for the trap game. Now I'm gonna 450 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,799 do it here with going against Cincinnati. And I know 451 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,759 I'm high on Cincinnati coming into this season, but I'm 452 00:25:23,799 --> 00:25:26,480 not high on them in this first game because all 453 00:25:26,519 --> 00:25:30,200 we heard about all summer long is how they get 454 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,200 off the slow starts, and to take care of that, 455 00:25:35,039 --> 00:25:39,640 they played the starters in preseason. Joe Burrow, Zach head 456 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,079 coaches Zach Taylor said, we're gonna play players, We're gonna 457 00:25:43,079 --> 00:25:46,799 be ready. We're not having that slow start. And what 458 00:25:47,039 --> 00:25:49,839 have we seen? They put up big numbers in the preseason. 459 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,559 We know this offense can score a lot of points. 460 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,680 And then what's the noise we heard about Cleveland all 461 00:25:55,720 --> 00:26:01,079 summer long? The quarterback room. We've made so many jokes 462 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,519 about that quarterback room. They had four quarterbacks. You know 463 00:26:04,559 --> 00:26:07,759 what do you have when you have four quarterbacks? No quarterbacks? 464 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:13,039 When Joe Flacco is your starter, you know you're in trouble. Well, okay, 465 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:17,440 all jokes aside. Joe Flacco will be the starter and 466 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,400 he can move the football. Why because he's going against 467 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,960 the Cincinnati Bengals defense. That is the one Achilles Heel 468 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,079 to the Cincinnati Bengals defense to this team this year. Yeah, 469 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:33,799 they're gonna put up crazy numbers offensively, but defensively, they're 470 00:26:33,799 --> 00:26:35,759 gonna have trouble stopping teams and they're gonna have to 471 00:26:35,799 --> 00:26:38,240 outscore them. So you think, well, that shouldn't be a 472 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:43,559 problem because Cleveland, with that quarterback that they have, they're 473 00:26:43,559 --> 00:26:45,480 not gonna move the football this year. Yeah, they'll be 474 00:26:45,519 --> 00:26:48,079 able to move against this defense enough to stay in 475 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,200 this game. And I'm gonna bring out my Golden rule. 476 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,440 Give me the better defense getting points. This is a 477 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,279 home opener, and we've got an underdog, a division rival. 478 00:26:58,799 --> 00:27:02,359 Are you kidding me? Too much love for the Bengals here? 479 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,319 They should not be this type of favorite on the road. 480 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,599 We saw this number at six down to five and 481 00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:13,039 a half. I'm taking Cleveland and don't be surprised until 482 00:27:13,039 --> 00:27:15,680 they get that monkey off their back. Cincinnati with those 483 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:20,000 slow starts losing this game outright again, but I feel 484 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,400 very comfortable with Cleveland plus the five and a half. 485 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,200 I think it's going to come down to a field goal. 486 00:27:26,079 --> 00:27:29,240 Let's go ahead and take Cleveland winning it on a 487 00:27:29,279 --> 00:27:31,200 late field goal twenty three to twenty one. 488 00:27:31,799 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 1: This is Joe burrow sixth season in the NFL and 489 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,839 he has one and four. That's his first five starts, 490 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,920 one and four. B buyer beware if you are going 491 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,079 to use the Cincinnati Bengals again any Week one of 492 00:27:45,519 --> 00:27:48,839 survivor VR eure up first here because it is time 493 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,039 for best best. Please let everybody know what you've got 494 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,680 going on over at wager talk dot com and then 495 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:57,839 tell me why we need to be looking at the Giants. 496 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:04,759 Speaker 2: Plus six Sunday, NFL Week one packages up already premiums 497 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:07,960 in there, and we'll have the steam rooms Sunday leading 498 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:14,359 into kickoff. Also, NFL season packages up college football as well. 499 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,640 Currently sitting number one in college football. I expect the 500 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,640 same damage in the NFL set up nicely for a 501 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,359 good regular season, and playoffs have always been good to 502 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,119 us as well. So jump on board for the entire season. 503 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,240 That's way you get the weekly steam rooms, which will 504 00:28:31,279 --> 00:28:35,480 come with all that time sensitive information that we get 505 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,160 player props, first quarters, all that stuff leading up the kickoff. 506 00:28:39,319 --> 00:28:41,599 I don't know over towagestalk dot com. And don't overlook 507 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,240 the free picks page. I put free premiums every time 508 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,759 I put out a free pick. They're not just opinions. 509 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,559 It's a premium play off. The card best bet. I 510 00:28:51,599 --> 00:28:55,559 gotta fade the Washington Redskins. Few teams are expecting the 511 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,160 regress like Washington. You gotta remember this is a team 512 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,880 that won how many fot ball games in twenty twenty three, 513 00:29:02,279 --> 00:29:04,960 like four football games, and then came back and won 514 00:29:05,079 --> 00:29:08,920 twelve the very next season in twenty twenty four. Historically, 515 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,680 those teams always regress. We have the flip side for 516 00:29:12,759 --> 00:29:15,799 the Giants, where they won six games in twenty twenty three, 517 00:29:16,079 --> 00:29:18,480 then dropped the three games in twenty twenty four. Only 518 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,039 one place they could go is more or less up 519 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,759 from there. And I like what I see on the 520 00:29:22,759 --> 00:29:24,480 defensive side of the ball, and that's what you want 521 00:29:24,519 --> 00:29:26,599 for your dog. If you're gonna bet a dog, you 522 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,599 want two things in the NFL. One you want sixty 523 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,920 minutes of effort, and you've seen against Washington this is 524 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:39,400 more or less NFC East rivalry. The history shows split, 525 00:29:39,839 --> 00:29:41,119 at least recent history. 526 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 3: If you look over the. 527 00:29:41,839 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 2: Last ten, twelve, fifteen games, you'll see close to fifty 528 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,720 to fifty point spread and straight up with both of 529 00:29:48,759 --> 00:29:52,240 these teams. They played close games, even last year, which 530 00:29:52,279 --> 00:29:56,160 was an outlier, and Washington won both they played. Both 531 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,119 of those games were very close, and that's what you 532 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,720 want from your dog. You want them to give you 533 00:30:01,759 --> 00:30:04,519 sixty minutes of effort. That always leaves the back door open. 534 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,119 You know what I mean. You're down ten points, but 535 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,319 if a team's gonna got heart with two minutes left 536 00:30:10,319 --> 00:30:13,240 and get the ball, that back door touchdowns always open, 537 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,359 and you want them to have the ability to win 538 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,559 the game out right. That's key, especially in the NFL 539 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,119 where we see you know, even double digit dogs can 540 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,000 win out right, and this is one of those dogs 541 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,039 that I think really can win out right because it's 542 00:30:26,119 --> 00:30:27,920 such a big game for them in Week one that 543 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,400 the Giants can't allow what's happened to them in the past. 544 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,440 And they've been outscored in the first two the first 545 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,920 game of the season over the last two years sixty 546 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,279 eight to six, so they've they've they've played back to 547 00:30:40,359 --> 00:30:44,759 blowouts in game one. I think you have a lot 548 00:30:44,799 --> 00:30:49,319 of new pieces, new attitude coaching. I think you're gonna 549 00:30:49,319 --> 00:30:51,000 get a full effort from the New York Giants. I 550 00:30:51,039 --> 00:30:53,759 think you're gonna get a regression from the Washington Redskins. 551 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:58,319 You have almost the perfect storm overvalued versus undervalued. Give 552 00:30:58,359 --> 00:31:02,240 me the six points with the Giants rest ashore. Washington 553 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,359 will be one of the most heavily teased signs on Sunday. 554 00:31:07,039 --> 00:31:10,079 Be careful with that. Be careful. I sprinkled the little 555 00:31:10,079 --> 00:31:12,240 something on the Giants money line. I think it's a 556 00:31:12,359 --> 00:31:16,319 very winnable game for them. Ooh, I like to hear that. 557 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: From a survivor perspective. I know a lot of people 558 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,839 will be using the Commanders on Sunday, Marco D'Angelo, it's 559 00:31:23,839 --> 00:31:27,960 time for your best bet. I'm kindie, Connie, I'm kind 560 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,680 of curious to hear this one. Are we fading the 561 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,599 Green day packers noise? But before you get into it, 562 00:31:33,839 --> 00:31:36,799 let's hear what you've got going on this weekend overtwagertalk 563 00:31:36,839 --> 00:31:37,400 dot com. 564 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:42,599 Speaker 3: Well, Kelly, we're promoting the seven day package that's available sitewide. 565 00:31:42,839 --> 00:31:45,480 You can get seven days for seventy seven dollars, and 566 00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,920 remember that includes any five percent play. Those five percent 567 00:31:49,039 --> 00:31:53,279 plays sell for thirty five dollars by themselves. Good opening 568 00:31:53,319 --> 00:31:56,400 week for us, last week in college football for and 569 00:31:56,599 --> 00:32:00,319 oh for us. And remember last year we where the 570 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:06,279 number two combined college in NFL football in money one 571 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,920 at wager Talk. So great season last year, off to 572 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,079 a running start this year. Get on board and that 573 00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:16,000 will include also those seven days. You'll get my baseball 574 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:21,640 plays and the WNBA plays WNBA fifty three and twenty 575 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:26,519 five with our selections in the WNBA, so you will 576 00:32:26,519 --> 00:32:29,480 get everything. The playoffs are about to start, So seven days, 577 00:32:29,559 --> 00:32:33,319 seventy seven dollars. Head over to wager Talk for this one. 578 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,799 We're going to take a look at Detroit and green Bay. 579 00:32:36,039 --> 00:32:38,319 And you know what green Bay was getting a lot 580 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,160 of love during the offseason is people expect Detroit to 581 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,400 take a step backwards this year. They lost both their 582 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,920 offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator. Both got head coaching 583 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,839 jobs this year, and people expect Jordan Love, with another 584 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,240 year under his belt, as the starter to take that 585 00:32:57,359 --> 00:33:02,279 next step forward having that experience. Well, I can't totally 586 00:33:02,319 --> 00:33:06,640 disagree with that, But then you add what happened last 587 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:11,880 week Micah Parsons the trade from Dallas. Nobody saw this coming. 588 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,599 He's now a green Bay Packer and the expectations are 589 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,480 off the chart. Now with Green Bay, did he improve 590 00:33:20,559 --> 00:33:25,119 the Packer defense by being traded there? Absolutely? But how 591 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,079 much of an impact can he possibly make him one week? 592 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,759 You know, they say he's going to be available, but again, 593 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,720 you know, you don't know the system, you don't know 594 00:33:34,799 --> 00:33:38,599 playing with one another. There's gonna be growing pains at 595 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,880 the team, gelling to one another. People got to be 596 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,200 in the right positions. Will this defense be even better 597 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,680 than it was before? Yeah, but give it a couple 598 00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,160 of weeks. If this game was played a month from now, 599 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,640 I probably would have a totally different opinion, But right now, 600 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,599 I have to look at the facts, and the facts 601 00:33:55,599 --> 00:33:59,079 are Detroit has owned this series with the Packers. They've 602 00:33:59,119 --> 00:34:02,880 won six of the life seven. Last year when they 603 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,839 played here, green Bay was a two and a half 604 00:34:05,839 --> 00:34:10,480 point underdog and they lost by ten. Now they're a 605 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,360 two and a half point favorite. Are you seriously going 606 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,719 to tell me that the Packers have improved five points 607 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,440 from last year and made up that difference of the 608 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,559 ten points that they lost the game from I don't 609 00:34:23,599 --> 00:34:26,880 think so. Until you knock the king off his crown, 610 00:34:27,519 --> 00:34:29,960 he's still the king, and the Lions have owned this 611 00:34:30,079 --> 00:34:33,800 division the last few years. I don't see green Bay 612 00:34:34,559 --> 00:34:37,719 knocking them off just yet. Like I said, give me 613 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,239 a month and I might have a different opinion. But 614 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,119 for Week one, I think Detroit is better prepared to 615 00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:46,760 hit the ground running, and I'm gonna go ahead and 616 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:50,880 take Detroit plus the two and a half and yeah, 617 00:34:51,039 --> 00:34:55,039 I'll be looking at some teasers probably on Sunday as well, 618 00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:59,400 with Detroit, because even if they do lose this game, 619 00:34:59,559 --> 00:35:03,559 I don't see green Bay getting separation from the Lions 620 00:35:03,599 --> 00:35:07,480 with that offense. That will be a very juicy looking 621 00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:08,760 teaser for me. 622 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,760 Speaker 1: Kelly, Yeah, Green Bay's getting a lot of love in 623 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,800 the marketplace this year. I'm not sure. Maybe, as you mentioned, 624 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,039 we should tune out some of that noise until we 625 00:35:20,119 --> 00:35:23,719 see otherwise. Okay, guys, here's what I did last year 626 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,320 for my best bets. I gave them out on the 627 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,480 show because they were my survivor picks, and then they 628 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,519 subsequently didn't cover, but they didn't lose. So we're gonna 629 00:35:30,519 --> 00:35:34,159 go with it again now just for personal this is 630 00:35:34,199 --> 00:35:37,599 for my personal benefit only, all jokes aside. I saw 631 00:35:37,639 --> 00:35:39,840 a tweet this morning and I went back and forth 632 00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,920 on the Denver Broncos. As you can see, I grew 633 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,400 up a Denver Broncos fan. I have not been a 634 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,559 Denver Broncos fan since they won the Super Bowl. I 635 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,719 found great spots to bet on and against this team. 636 00:35:51,199 --> 00:35:53,079 I think this is the week to bet on this team. 637 00:35:53,679 --> 00:35:56,000 There have been twenty eight quarterbacks taking the number one 638 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,880 pick since the merger of nineteen seventy and their first start. 639 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:02,079 There are five twenty two to one straight up and 640 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:07,039 eight and twenty against the spread. Cam Ward making his 641 00:36:07,159 --> 00:36:11,440 debut in Denver this weekend. We've talked about rookie quarterbacks 642 00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:16,280 in their first start, especially on the road. Yeah, I know, 643 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,840 this Titans team went two and fifteen against the spread 644 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,920 the season, so we should be looking to see that reverse. 645 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:28,199 Maybe they also finished the season in minus sixteen turnover margin. 646 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,159 I pretty much wrote that team off Week one after 647 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:37,440 somehow losing that game to Chicago. Different quarterback, different scenario, 648 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,159 probably the same defense. Maybe they can take a step 649 00:36:42,199 --> 00:36:45,719 forward this year. We'll see Broncos head coach Sean Payton 650 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:50,400 in his third year. Bo Nicks great passing attack, but man, 651 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:53,639 that running game was very frustrating. The Broncos finished in 652 00:36:53,679 --> 00:36:56,239 the bottom half of the league in their rushing metrics. 653 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,519 So what they do. They brought in former charger JK. 654 00:36:58,639 --> 00:37:01,000 Dobbins and they drafted rookie RJ. 655 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 3: Harvey. 656 00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,880 Speaker 1: I expect the Broncos to run the ball here. I 657 00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,800 expect them to open up that passing game for bow Nicks, 658 00:37:08,039 --> 00:37:12,159 and I expect that Tennessee defense to get exploited once again. 659 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,000 We'll see cam Ward can't pull out some of that 660 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,119 magic there that he had in Miami last season, where 661 00:37:18,119 --> 00:37:21,880 they somehow won every single game, well at least the 662 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:25,760 first nine. I actually even rewatched that col game on 663 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:30,159 Saturday with Grandma, don't ask. It was not fun again. 664 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,159 We'll see what that defensive line is capable of. Can 665 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,639 they stop the run? I don't think so. I think 666 00:37:35,679 --> 00:37:39,159 this Titans team is a big time work in progress, 667 00:37:39,159 --> 00:37:40,280 and I know a lot of people are gonna be 668 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,400 wanting to bet against them and survivor. I think the 669 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:45,719 Broncos get the win, but I also think the Broncos 670 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,960 win convinsively. I'm gonna lay eight with the Broncos. I'm 671 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,320 gonna put him in a ton of teasers. I expect 672 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:55,159 Sean Payton to run back that double digit win season 673 00:37:55,440 --> 00:38:00,360 this season. Give me the Broncos minus the eight. Late 674 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:05,280 to the party, but not too late yet. Marco VR 675 00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,840 thank you guys always for your contributions here on bet 676 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,960 on It, the NFL edition, of course, the college football edition, 677 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,400 and if you guys missed the college football edition, you 678 00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:20,079 guys can go right here and absolutely watch that thirty 679 00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,360 seven thousand if you guys watched it last weekend and 680 00:38:22,599 --> 00:38:26,719 Marco and br had a great weekend, me not so much. 681 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:28,159 We're gonna try to run it back down, of course, 682 00:38:28,159 --> 00:38:30,800 if you guys are missing TNA, Ralph Michaels now has 683 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,840 his own standalone segment here on the wager Talk YouTube channel. 684 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,559 We're gonna have stock Watch with Teddy Covers up there, 685 00:38:37,599 --> 00:38:41,000 as well as the Prop Shop with Andy Lang. So 686 00:38:41,079 --> 00:38:43,920 your full show is still here, it's just a little 687 00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,400 bit more segmented. We wanted to bring back the old 688 00:38:46,519 --> 00:38:50,880 school VR and Marco's put up that recap graphic for 689 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,840 everybody who scrolled to the end. The least you guys 690 00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,639 can do is give us that thumbs up and of 691 00:38:55,639 --> 00:38:58,440 course hit that subscribe button so you never miss another 692 00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,800 episode of bet On It.