Speaker 1: We love.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Wager Talks. Last call Kelly Stewart here. You
guys know me as Kelly in Vegas, VR is going
to be up here first soon as he gets logged
in Steve Merrill for some college football and hopefully some
college basketball insight for everybody, and then Kyle Anthony is
going to be here talking all things UFC. First of all,
shout out to our insiders in the chat. There's quite
a few of you guys that have just joined wt
dot Buzz backslash insiders if you're looking to be a
little extra special here with us at wager talking some
early access to things like bet on It, Marco's Deli,
of course, some premium access stuff like VR steam Room
and so forth. So no ard to Caesar. The joke
in my friends group chat is he's been on PTO
for the last few weeks. I think these shows are
catching up with him and he needs saturdays off at
least to just work behind the counter there at the
Westgates super Book. But he did send me a text message,
so I'm going to pass some stuff along for you guys.
Let me ask him, are we need your best bet
because you guys are gonna ask in the chat. We
know that's exactly what you guys are gonna do. I
got some college basketball, of course, I've got the rest
of these conference championships. The first game up, we've got
BYU Texas Tech for the Big twelve Championship there in Arlington.
That one starts in fifty nine minutes. Shocker. He says,
we're gonna need BYU. I think I'm gonna play BYU
as well, guys. I got that twelve to one ticket
on Texas Tech sitting in my pocket. But I think
this is a lot, a lot of points for a
team that should be able to keep it a lot closer.
We'll ask a VR when he gets in here about
his thoughts. Miami, O of Ohio, Western Michigan. They have
no decision on the MAC Championship game.
Speaker 1: Ooh.
Speaker 2: The SEC Championship game is gonna bebout four o'clock eastern here,
and Uga is not gonna be a need. That is
not good news for me. I like Georgia in this game.
They said small, but they're gonna need Alabama as far
as the ACC Championship goes. If you guys watched bet
on it, I gave out Duke as my best bet.
We saw the line go the other way and now
it's starting to come back. If you've got your Odds
Logic screen open, you can absolutely see the movement there.
And make sure you guys do have that open or
the wager talk for you live on screen, because when
we can bring in VR here in a minute, he
is going to be the guy that tells you to
look at that screen and find the best of the number,
so he said. The Sharps took two and a half
with Uva, now three and a half. We even saw four.
But in terms of needing something specific for this game,
they don't. But they're gonna need Virginia big time for
the futures book. So I'm guessing they're gonna book to
get some Duke money and then need Virginia to win
the game. Last, but not least, the Big Ten Championship,
Sharps took six five and now down to four with Indiana,
they're gonna need Ohio State. That one is gonna be
an interesting one because me and everybody else I know
liked Indiana early. I missed the best of the number.
I said, I'm going to stay away. But Kirk Signetti
as an underdog is rather enticing. And then I'm gonna
give you guy some of this sharp college basketball as
well as arts. Best bat here in a minute. But
VR just popped on, so we're gonna see what he's
got for us here. VR, We're gonna take you all
the way until Steve Merrill gets here, whatever time that is.
Steve kind of marches to the beat of his own drum,
so sometimes he logs in early, some N logs in late.
But I know we've got a ton of stuff because
we've got college football today, We've got college basketball to day,
and of course we have UFC.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the four and a halfs are all going
to be taken out in the next ten minutes, right now,
right now, as I was waiting, right now, in three
different body accounts, Indiana plus four and a half, indianaplus
four and a half, they're taking out all the four
and a half. If you look the Odrolgic screen right now,
Ohio State should be lighting up going to four even
money yep, yeap ow Okay.
Speaker 2: See, So I feel like this is like everyone And
when I said I wasn't just meaning there the squares
and the record everyone.
Speaker 1: And they're even taking the later number. You remember the
six was available, and you'll rarely see a betting syndic
get do buy order like this a point and a
half later on a Saturday morning, Like, unless there's injuries
or something like that, it's very rare. I would I
was worried that I was going to see Ohio State
Steam today once it got down the four, but it's no.
Instead they came in with it.
Speaker 2: Do you think the Ohio State Steam is going to
come from like.
Speaker 1: And now forget it unless it gets the three and
a half that's it. Yeah. Yeah, it's going to have
to come off four for sure.
Speaker 2: That makes sense. Uh. You know again, I wish I
had Indiana plus six and pocket early in the week
and maybe I was coming back on the other side.
That one's gonna be an interesting one late night here
on the East Coast. I'm excited to watch that one.
Speaker 1: I took, Yeah, I took. I took the four and
a half. I ended up taking the four and a
half in that one. I'm with you in Alabama and Georgia.
I took the three with Alabama. Bought the hook up
when it was two and a half. Juice. I just
thought this was a coin flip game at the very worst.
I saw the Georgia's theme early, but as you can see,
it's come back the other way now because I do,
I think most think it is a coin flip type
of game between these two teams.
Speaker 2: V question real quick. So the joke is Kirby Smart
can't beat Alabama right? Does not play into your handicap
at all? Or is that just a narrative talking point
on ESPN?
Speaker 1: It's noise, but you have to consider it, do you
know what I mean? Like, it's hard to quantify it.
What is it worth to the betting line? But we'd
be foolish not to try to factor it a little
bit because there's just some teams, some coaches, some athletes
that just have the other person's number for whatever reason,
they just get the best of them. And you have
to pay attention to it again, especially if you have
a sample size that's repetitive and it's constantly happening, like
you can't just ignore it. The difficulty becomes like am
I now betting for it to continue or betting for
it to stop? That's where the difficulty comes in that
you could argue both. That's where it's tough and as handicappers. Again,
that's what makes the market. One's gonna say it'll continue,
and another ones's gonna say no, he should progress towards
his mean or what you have you. But yeah, I
factor it, but I try to eliminate as much noise
as possible and stick strictly to numbers because they're the
one thing that have no opinion. They don't care, they
have no bias, they don't remember what happened last week
like they they don't, they don't care at all. That's
why I like to use power ratings and and data
and stats because it's not an opinion where you know,
within everybody could form their their own opinion and make
it make sense to them. But with the with the like,
it's hard to arguate. It's no longer an opinion. This
is factual stuff, all.
Speaker 2: Right, VR, let me know what you've got. Power Ratings wise,
there's a video that I want to start doing. I
think maybe we might have to make wait till next year.
That way you guys have the entire season of it
or VR and I go through Power Ratings every single
week because I do think it is really great information
to help you guys learn how to handicap these games yourself?
VR kind of go through that top ten, who do
you think should make the college football playoff? Obviously we've
got to let the games play out today, but I'm
genuinely curious because there's all of this noise. Right, I
can sit here and I can argue that BYU should
get in over a Notre Dame team and a Miami team,
But I also know that Notre Dame would be favored
over both of those teams, right, understanding that, but then
we look at it from an eye test perspective. Who's
playing for a conference championship, who doesn't play in a
conference championship but or who's not even invited to theirs.
So there's a lot of different factors that is going
into the college waball plant. But I want to know
from a pure numbers perspective, who your top twelve teams are.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with zero bias at all, strictly offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency,
strength of schedule, past guest friends future. They don't really
have a future strength of schedule, But those are the
data points that go into these power ratings. Points, score
differential at home, point differential at road, like the things
that actually matter, and here's my top twelve. All right,
Ohio State's number one, Indiana's number two, they have that right.
Number three is Notre Dame. The third top power rated team.
Number four is Oregon. Number five is Alabama, Number six
is Georgia, Number seven is Mississippi. Number eight is Texas Tech.
Number nine is Penn State, Number ten is Utah, eleven Miami, Florida,
and twelve Texas. And right behind Texas is Michigan, which
dropped a couple in my power rais. Miami went up,
Michigan went down in power ratings from last week. Notre
Dame went up, Mississippi went down, Alabama went up a little.
Those are the adjustments that he made. And the difference
between Ohio State and Indiana is about four and a
half points, is what he has the power ratings, and
the difference between Ohio State and stay the number you
know twelve team Texas is about thirteen points. So Ohio
State's thirteen points better than almost two touchdowns better than
the ten twelfth team today. Real quickly, BYU, I have
in the top twenty. I have them at nineteen, and
I have Texas Tech at sixteen. Miami, oh I have
it eighty eight, and I have Western Michigan ninety five.
So Western Michigan's the lower power ratings a year.
Speaker 2: Can you go back to that real quick? Did you, mom?
Texas A and M was your ninth team, not Texas Tech.
Sorry because you just said Texas Tech.
Speaker 1: Texas Texas Tech. Okay, Texas A and M is is
my seventeenth.
Speaker 2: Seventeenth Sorry about that.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's done, is seventeenth. Oklahoma is in front of
Texas A and M.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 1: Okay, just numbers wise, Just numbers wise. Michigan's in front
of them, Miami's in front of them. Pence State would
be a one and a half point favorite over A
and M. It's just to know it is what it
is like Again, it's not my opinion. It's just what
the numbers produce. And it's produced profit like. It's different
if it wasn't producing profit. But obviously his math makes
sense because it's produced profit is again, it's not going
to be one hundred percent. A lot of times the
power ratings aren't going to play out that the lower
power rated team wins plenty, but over the long term,
over statistically significant sample size, the power ratings are going
to play out more than they're not. That's exactly why
again not the tout number one in college football the
entire season, only three losing weeks out of four team
using nothing but the power ratings. I try to keep
my opinion away. Anytime I did that and started really
trying to handicap it, I made it harder than it
needs to be. When I simply used power ratings and
looked at injury reports, that was it. It made it so
much easier. The line that his numbers show compared to
what Vegas has. When there's a difference, we fire, and
so far it's been profitable in college football. And like
I said today, there's a couple of those games that
are power rated different than what the point spread is,
and you should expect that. It's that time of the year.
We're getting into the playoffs, into the bowls. The narratives
we already have them, We've already drawn our conclusions on
who's good who's not, and the markets saturated by recreational betters.
So yeah, it's going to be mostly the eye tests
based on the point spreads. So you get a lot
of value times like this.
Speaker 2: All right, perfect, Let's get into some of this other
sharp stuff you've seen headed in to this college football
and college basketball Saturday. Everybody get your pen and paper ready,
because I'm.
Speaker 1: Just gonna let them know. Here we go. All right,
some of the college football stuff that's still relevant. Nothing
really on the Texas Tech BYU game. Western Michigan Miami Ohio. Miami,
Ohio got steamed at the opener. That's why it went
down from three down to two. Since then, the public's
driven it back up a little bit. That's public money
on Western Michigan, not sharp money. Sharps are on Miami O. Georgia, Alabama.
You know what happened their early money on Georgia when
it got up the near three. That's where other sharps
liked Alabama. It's a coin flip game. There's no surprise
you have a difference of opinion with that kind of
tight line. Duke Virginia wise guys, public my cleaning lady.
They're all on Virginia. They all love the Cavaliers. Today
she got down at three and a half. I told
her she took a bad number. Could he got minus
three earlier? So she's hoping to be the product The
good luck books are going to need to do big time,
big time, big time. That that's the most one sided
actually that one. I know everybody saying Indiana Ohio state,
but there's a lot of contrarians who heard that the
whole world's on Indiana, that they're taking Ohio state. Rest
is sure. The Ohio state money's gonna come in at
four minus oh five. You'll get Ohio state money. That'll
be a little more balanced. When we get the kickoff
right now, you may be hear and it's all Indiana
like we hear the super Bowl after the first week,
it's all on Team A of course, because they see
the line moving that way. Why would anyone take Ohio
State when the line's going from six to five and
a half to five to four and a half to four.
I'm gonna wait till it hits bottom. Then I'm gonna
bet the favorite. You're gonna get the favorite money today.
Don't be surprised, added Games. I don't have anything except
that Montana, Montana in South Dakota State. Every wise, guy.
Speaker 3: From h east of the Mississippi, west of the Mississippi,
north of the Mississippi, south of the Mississippi has a
Montana ticket in their pocket. They got Montana minus one,
Montana minus one and a half, Montana minus two, Montana
on the money line, Montana.
Speaker 1: Minus three, even money. Let's just say there's a lot
of money on Montana today over South Dakota State. That's
that one added game that really matters, that sticks out
that FCS playoffs because those you know, if you look,
there's not much line movements off the opener. The limits
just aren't really high. They'll bet them off screen probably
today and mix it in with everything else, but that
one got action immediately, real quickly. Some college basketball for you,
I'll just read off a couple six fifty Lafayette plus
thirteen and a half seven nineteen, Florida State plus seventeen,
seven thirty three, Oklahoma minus five six eighteen Butler minus
four six po oh two, Michigan State plus one and
a half, seven oh two, Brand Canyon plus three and
a half, six oh three, Iowa State plus six, six
seventy three, Southeast Missouri State plus six and a half
and seven eighteen North Dakota plus six and a half.
So you got college basketball, you have college football. You're
just ready to make money today.
Speaker 2: We are ready to make money today. Let me get
give you guys some of that sharp college basketball from
Art as well. He said they the sharp sub Duke
plus one and a half at Mesu plus seventeen and
a half to Lane plus seven and a half, New
Mexico plus two and a half, Michigan minus twenty three
that Iowa say game you just mentioned plus six and
Wyoming minus fourteen. Art de Caesar says his best bet
is Dayton plus five and a half. Here on this
beautiful college basketball satura. If you guys do have a
college basketball question, Steve Merrel is gonna get it answered
for you. But first VR anything you would like to
leave our audience with.
Speaker 1: Yeah, UFC, don't overlook YOUFC three twenty three tonight. It's
the last pay per view card of the year before
swipping over to Paramount for the new year. No more
pay per views. They will be called numbered events moving forward.
You never have to pay pay per view again. Stack
cord from top to bottom. Give you a small favorite,
small favorite, and may save you some money because I
know there's a lot of money on Brandon Moraine, a
lot of sharp money on Brandon Moren be careful with that.
His best minutes. I love the guy I made a
lot of money with him, but his best minutes are
behind him. At thirty two years old, this is going
to be his nineteenth UFC fight, and over his last
seven or eight, five of those went to bonuses, meaning
they were wars, and every one of those wars went
to a decision, and all five of those decisions the
results he went to two and one, which tells me
even in those fights he lost and one wars, whether
he won he got beat up, whether he lost he
got beat up. That takes a toll on you. Tiara
twenty five years old, coming into his prime on a
nice Hotstree has great grappling game. I think he's got
enough to create enough problems for what's it called Moreno.
This line should be at least minus one fifty minus
one sixty because true odds he wins this fight two
out of three times should be closer to two hundred.
So if you get wins one fifty one sixty, it's
a great bet you're able to get one twenty one
thirty Because of the Moreno name, I think that's a
good bet. And also I think Macy Barber too much.
Negative about Macy Barber because of that would happen to
her in June. Was it a seizure? Was it a
panic attack? Who gives a shit. Whatever happened happened. And
now we're getting her at minus one seventy one eighty
instead of minus two fifty because where's her mental state? Bro.
As soon as she starts fighting, she could make it
to the octagon. She'll be fine. Can she get to
the octagon. That's what takes the most balls, getting walking
there in your underwear with twenty thousand people screaming. You're
about to lock yourself in a cage with someone that
wants to hurt you. Not beat you on the scoreboard,
actually hurt you, kill you, put you in the hospital,
named you. Fighting's very different. You don't play fighting like
you play baseball. You play football, you don't play fighting.
So it's a little bit different. Once she gets hit,
she'll turn into Macy Barber. Just so if she gets
to the octagon, you bet Macy Barber. So there's two
small favors for you.
Speaker 2: Awesome, VR, you are the best. Appreciate you hanging out
with us here every single Saturday on Last Call. You
guys can also catch VR on wager Talk today. He'll
be back tomorrow here on last call with Aaron Lefsin
doing all of the NFL stuff. Steam Room will be
going live right after for his premium subscribers, and of
course we'll be back with bet on It here on Wednesday.
Right now, guys, flex picks twenty five percent off with
code flex twenty five. You get to pick your experts
your way over at wager talk dot com, WT dot buzz,
Backslash Flex full daily all access. You can switch cappers
at any time, you can skip days, and yes, of
course those coveted five percent best bets are included. VR
is one of those handicappers you guys can flex pix with,
so we appreciate him. You can get him out of here.
I know he's got a lot of work to do. Yeah,
eating up until kickoff. Thank you to VR at Greek
Underscore Gamblers there on all your social channels. We're going
to bring in Steve Merrill. We're going to talk some
college football. We're going to talk some college basketball. Steve Merrill,
it's been a little while. Welcome in, Kelly.
Speaker 4: I gotta sit down here. I'm sitting down now. There
we are, all right. I was so excited. I was
standing up for a second, apparently good to see. I
almost wore the gray hoodie and I was like, I'm
going to go formal because this is a special occasion,
and you wore black. You got to head black on
ey had black, so I should have crossed down and
wore the away uniform instead of the the home black here.
But yeah, big Saturday, lots of sports going. We don't
have NFL yet, and I look next week, we don't
have Saturday NFL. We only have the Army Navy game,
which is interesting, and then the following week we get
a couple Saturday NFL games. We can't say we have
four major sports going today, but we got three of
them and then another one tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Obviously, Yeah, we'll take it. That's going to be a
really great day of college basketball. And that's why I
wrote you earlier and said, Steve, are you ready for
college basketball? Because me myself, I usually wait until around
this time, starting next weekend to really dive into college basketball.
I know a lot of people are going to argue
that you're late, but college football and NFL are my
bread and butter, so college basketball is kind of that.
Third When did you start handicapping college basketball, and how
are you doing it in it so far?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're definitely not late, and I think, if anything,
you need to be cautious more than ever with this
whole transfer portal and anybody that tells you they're dialed
into college basketball November's line. It's that straightforward now, maybe
twenty years ago and you and I started, you could
be dialed in in November. But most of these head
coaches don't even know what they have when the season
begins in November because their entire roster seventy percent of
it is new, and they don't have preseason games, they
don't have an NBA preseason. They play maybe a Division
III or a travel team, and then they get into it.
Everybody started November third, that Monday, there were no trickle
in games, so you definitely would to tread lightly. But
I do think now that we're in December, we have six, seven,
eight games under our belt with teams, we can start
to look at what teams are. We don't have to
guess anymore. So yes, I think this is a great
time to start getting into college hoops. And then, of
course I love conference action. In January and February I
will have my weekly Top twenty five video for Saturday
games in January and February. And by the way, I've
had some free play videos this week. Gave you the
under in that Tennessee Syracuse game on Tuesday. Also talked
about a game on Monday's Wager Talk Today, I usually
talked about a game, including this up coming Monday. Real quick, Kelly,
I want to touch on a game that starts here
at noon Easter because you mentioned that Arthur Deceiser likes Dayton,
and that caught my attention because we have a very
unique situation in this Dayton Virginia game at noon Eastern.
It's being played on a neutral court in Charlotte, exactly
where the UVA Cavaliers are playing the football game eight
hours later, so we'll see how neutral that court is.
I think Virginia is going to have a semi home
game at the Spectrum Center. Not a game I'm using today,
but I actually would maybe disagree with Art based on
the matchup. UVA likes is an excellent three point shooting team,
and Dayton gives up a lot of threes. Out of
three hundred and sixty some teams, they give up three
hundred and thirty three and twenty first percentage wise most
threes per game, and Uva also the second best off
offensive rebounding team in the country. Dayton is only two
hundred and seventy ninth. I think Uva has some edges
in this game. And once again, it's going to be
a semi home game. How big is that going to be?
You go to the Uva game at noon and then
you go watch Uva football at eight o'clock Eastern in
charlot like, maybe win the ACC championship and make the
FOO football playoffs.
Speaker 2: That will be an interesting one. I think the every
sportsbook on the planet's going to be cheering for Duke.
I got my buddies texting me right now. What do
the needs? What are the needs? What are the needs?
And I do have a disclaimer because John Murray had
to remind somebody this morning that every single book is
going to possibly need something different. It depends on what
they're booking for. It depends on what the futures market
looks like. Remember a lot of those futures bets are
going to be cashing this weekend as well, so kind
of keep that with a little grain of salt. I
am personally on Duke. You know what, Steve ball lady,
break down that game your local to UVA close enough,
and I'm curious as to your thoughts. They kind of
came out of nowhere except you thought that they had
a shot to win the ACC. I think you're the
only one that I remember hearing on wager Talk that
was like, hey, you guys should be looking at this
Cavaliers team.
Speaker 4: Yeah, in my whole life, it's always been not my
UVA Cavaliers and a big rival of Bim and Mary.
But I do kind of have a soft spot form
now be nice to see a state school get in.
And by the way, let's remember if Duke does pull
the upset here and it's it's possible, I mean, they
got about a forty five percent chance of winning this game.
They're only a three and a half point dog in
it open two and a half. So if the opening
line was correct, the odds are almost pick them. If
Uva is to fall in this game, the ACC is
not going to get in that large. I think they've
got Miami right now is about an eleven percent chance
is still sneaking in because it's going to go to
the top five conference champions, which means James Madison. The
Duke's not my James Madison Dukes. By the way, the
other two schools I applied and got into were UVA
and JMU. How ironic is that. I would love to
see JMU get in disrupt the system a little bit.
And also North Texas about fifty percent to Lane forty percent.
You know, obviously Tulane winning that game last night changes
all the metrics there. This is before the games are played,
so it's going to be either Tulane or James Madison
when the final rankings come out. If UVA falls, I'm
not using this game. But I do like UVA. And
the reason I'm not using the game is because I
like UVA. If that makes city since because as you said, Kelly,
everybody is on the Cavaliers and this one, it's hard
for me to disagree. You know, you always hear that
analogy it's so hard to beat a team twice. Well,
they just played less than a month ago. I get
that UVA was a four and a half point road dog.
They won out right, and there was nothing misleading about it.
They had almost a three hundred yard edge offensively. So
we'll see if Duke can make the adjustments. The Cavaliers
I don't think are any better offensively. In fact, I
rate Duke is the better offensive team in this game.
What the Cavaliers have is a huge defensive edge. Duke
is not a good defensive team this season, and the
fact that UVA still has a defensive edge and had
a three hundred yard offensive edge in the first meeting.
It'd be Virginia pass, but once again, wouldn't be surprised
and maybe see this game land on three. You know,
you and Janni both talked about how it's crossed over
that key number open two and a half now three
and a half really four. A lot of fours out there. Now.
I don't disagree. I'd be on Virginia, but I'm passing
because I don't like being on a really public, one
sided action, and that is definitely what the Cavaliers are tonight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, We've got a few games like that that's going
to be really interesting. If you guys have a question
for Steve, drop it in the chat. We're gonna pivot
to college basketball just for a little bit because the
entire chat is going titan CT. One of our insiders
is kind of going back and forth with Rob and
they're talking about this Marquette game. What do you think
of about some of these teams that have started out
the season really, I won't say red hot, but pretty
on fire, right, Like you want to bet on teams
and they stay hot, or you kind of the buck
the trend guy that's like, all right, we are now
paying too much of a premium for some of these teams.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you really have to look at who they've played.
First of all, you know I talked about we don't
know who they're playing as far as their own players
until a few games in. But you also want to
check out the schedule because keep in mind last week
late November, we get all those neutral core tournaments over
the Thanksgiving week in which teams play three games in
three days, and you got to be really careful using
those results as well. You also got to throw out
when they played these Division three teams. You know, when
they play teams they've beaten by fifty you can't use
those numbers either. So I always kind of look at
the the schedule of work, who they've played, and Marquette
so far this year has started off just five and
four straight up and that fifth win last Tuesday was
in overtime against a very below average Valparaiso team. They
did have a one point lost to Oklahoma, also an
overtime loss of the Dayton team we just talked about,
lost to Indiana and Maryland, so they've played some tough opponents.
And in this one though, I've got Wisconsin winning by
double digits. So not ready to jump on Marquet quite yet.
I think Wisconsin is the better team. And also as
far as the matchup goes, the one thing that jumps
out to me is Wisconsin does not play slow anymore.
You know, We've talked about the tempo change in the
last few years, and right now I've got them in
the top third in the country in tempo. Marquette usually
likes to play fast. With Shaka, they always played tough
half court defense. They turned their team their opponents over.
Shaka Smart's done that ever since he was at a
VCU with that havoc defense that got them from the
playing round to the final four over a decade ago.
Wisconsin one of the best ball handling teams in the country.
They only have about a fourteen percent turnover ration. I
don't think this is a good matchup for.
Speaker 2: Marquette all right, A lot of people think taking the
points there is the way to go. I kind of
agree with Steve here. I'm not ready to fade Wisconsin
just yet. I know eleven and a half looks really hey,
just kind of circling back for those tuning in late,
Art's best bet was Dayton. Steve broke that one down.
If you want to scroll back about four minutes, you
can hear Steve's opinion on that one as well. A
lot of people agreeing Marquette has been kind of a disappointment.
I think Wisconsin is trending a little above where I
believe they should be steve to start the season. But
I think this is a good spot for them here
as well. So let's get into some more of this
college football now. The questions are generating. They want to know,
because it's kicking off here in thirty two minutes. What
are your feelings on BYU Texas Tech? Steve, I've got
a Texas Tech ticket twelve to one in my pocket.
I gave it out during bet on It when we
did our college football previews. I said that the team
has spent so much money on anil I like Joey maguire.
I like what we've seen from this team and where
they're headed in the direction, So I feel really smart
right now. But it is really tough to beat a
team twice, and by you could not have played that
first game any worse, correct, And.
Speaker 4: One thing that jumps out to you is the low
score from the first game, twenty nine to seven. And yes,
you did the math right, that was five field goals
two touchdowns for Texas Tech. In fact, it was a
school record five field goals. Kicker never had five field
goals in a game in Red Raider history. So while
they got to twenty ninety, I guess you can make
the argument by used defense held up pretty good. And
obviously Texas Tech defense was extremely strong in that game,
allowing just seven points. So we do have a rematch.
And by the way, Kelly, we have a rematch in
four of the five games today, which I do love.
And how do you use the remain You know, we
talked about it's tough to beat a team twice, while
use an example from last night that Kenisaal Jacksonville State game.
And by the way, I've done free play videos. I
did the math on this, I did free play videos
for twenty of the twenty three college and pro football
games this week. I don't know what I'm doing. I'm
given two much away for free here on wager Talk TV.
But my point is I did all nine of these games.
I did a Friday video and then I did all
five Saturday games, So be sure to watch that after
the show today for more deep dives into all these games.
And one thing I pointed out on the Friday video
is I liked kennessas State as a small favorite because
they had lost that earlier meeting and it was misleading.
They had a thirty two to nineteen first down edge.
It was like five hundred and some yards, but I
think it was like a three nothing turnover deficit. So
you want to dig into the box scores, and it's
not always well, it's tough to be the team twice.
You want to see if there was a misleading box score.
And here again, turnovers are the first thing I look for.
BYU had a three to nothing turnover disadvantage last month
of November eighth when they lost that game twenty nine
to seven. So I do think maybe this is a
spot where we sneak in take the Cougars. You know
I love Cougars BYU Cougars, and this is also a
spot where we getting little bit of line value at
thirteen or more because my power rating is my projection
of actually my simulation ten thousand games simulation makes it
twelve and a half a fair line. So at thirteen
or more, I think there's value with B. But as
I checked the Odds Logic screen here minutes before kickoff,
thirty minutes before kickoff, to be exact, it's dropping back
down to twelve and a half. One of the Sharp
Global books is now eleven. That's a buyback. And then
the over under, which was forty it was fifty and
a half forty nine and a half this week when
I did the video, is now back up to fifty
and a half. Circa in Vegas, fifty one very key number,
about a three to four percent chance games land on
fifty one. I mentioned in the video I leaned BYU,
and I lean under fifty one or more. I would
definitely start leaning under in this rematch, as I don't
think the misleader. I don't think it was misleading that
both defenses did well a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2: Ooh, Steve, you're right, I'm looking right now, Christmas Tree. Yeah,
one twelve and a half left over here for me.
I took thirteen. I'm going to take some more twelve
and a half. I like BYU in this spot, and again,
I've been high on Texas Tech all season long, regardless
of what Twitter thanks, I'm cheering for the Red Raiders
to get into the game.
Speaker 4: Kelly, real quick on that. You know, I talk about
my ten thousand games simulation. I also rank each offense
in the defensive unit out of all one hundred and
thirty six teams we're going to get to the Indiana
Ohio State game. I've got them as my top two
teams in the country, my top two defenses, by the
way in the country. But to put in perspective, you know,
it's weird to see Indiana that good. It is weird
to see Texas Tech that good. But this is where
they rank. I've got them as the number two offense,
the number four defense, and the number three team overall.
But I've actually got BYU's the ninth best team overall,
top twenty in both offense and defense. So here again,
I'm not looking to fake Texas Tech, just like you're mentioning,
but I think BYU might be a little underrated and
catching double digits as appealing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna be really upset when they lose this
game and they don't get in the college football playoffs.
But that's kind of why I'm also cheering for Duke
because I'd love to see the ACC get zero teams.
Speaker 4: Like I said, I'd like to see James Madison get
in instead of UVA. Either way of state team's getting.
Speaker 2: In, Yeah, I would agree. I listen. I know a
lot of people like to argue about the game of
five schools, but I do think it It kind of
gives you an idea, right, It's like, have you ever
heard of the adage of like during Olympics, it's like, oh,
let's put a normal guy in there and see what
a normal guy does. Like, let's put in a game
of five school and let's see what they could do.
You never know, it's a one game sample says they
could absolutely win a game in the college.
Speaker 4: Well, the better analogy is a thing called the NCAA
Basketball Tournament. So that, well, thank you, yes, enough said
right there, right, we know it works, and we also
know they're getting away from it. There. The SEC got
what twelve of their fourteen teams in last year. And
they've done this, by the way, for a decade, and
you and I have talked about it on shows. I've
made it very public for the past decade. When they
you know St. Mary's of California and another mid major
gets in, they always play in the first round of
the seven to ten game, or they get that eight
to nine seed so they have to play the one
seed the next round. They do all they can for
decades now to keep those teams from even making the
round of sixteen, and now it's become even more blatant.
So yeah, I'm pulling for the little guy in both
college basketball and college football whenever possible.
Speaker 2: Yes, we do love the idea of a Cinderella story.
All right, let's kind of get into some more of
these really quick. Anthony's waiting in the wings to talk
to UFC. So if you guys do have a UFC question,
gohingad and drop in the chat and we will try
to get to it. Rob Christians, I wants to know, Steve,
do you have an opinion on the total in the
SEC game. I have a feeling that if I'm a
feeling there's a correlation. If you like Alabama, it's because
Alabama's offense is going to put up points and Georgia's
defense isn't going to be able to stop them and
it's going to turn into a pseudo shootout. Or if
you like Georgia, you're gonna like George's defense and they're
going to keep it in a low scoring game. Thought Steve.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So, as I mentioned, I did all five games
of the standalone video, including this one. I talked about
the total, but I even did a solo video for
this game and the Indiana Ohios taking they're so big,
and I talked about the total there too. So I've
been pretty open this week that I like the over
in this game. And it was around forty seven and
a half when I was doing some of the videos
a few days ago. And we have seen a little
bit of money come in on the over. It's now
up to forty eight. Forty eight is a semi key number.
I'd say two to three percent chance, So once you
get to forty eight and a half, you're probably starting
to lose a little bit of value at that point.
Would have liked forty seven and a half forty eight better,
but mostly forty eights available. It's a little counterintuitive because
here again we have a rematch, this one much earlier
in the season, back of course in September, and it
landed forty five, but last year fifty one. Several meetings
before that sixty five sixty five. These two teams have
a high scoring history, and if you look at how
that game played out back in early September, yes, it
landed only forty five points, felt like George's offense kind
of struggled. I also feel like Georgia's offense is better
the past few months, and they are the better team
right now in my rankings. Also, as far as the
side in this game, though, I would lean towards Bama
at three or more. When I did the video it
was two and a half. Those that followed me all
season know this made. It was in my College Football
Top twenty five video way back in September, of course,
and I did call for the Bama upset win based
on my projections. Here again, my ten thousand game simulation
has this one a pick them. I think it's a
dead even toss up. Really no opinion at one and
a half, which is now the current line. When it
was two and a half, I said, hey, if you
can get a plus three. Yanni mentioned this earlier. There
were some threes floating around and the sharp scrabbed it.
Not a surprise. Now it's down to one and a half.
I think it's pretty much where it should be. But yeah,
over forty eight would be my play on the total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Steve, I even have a that has minus one
fifteen right now on the Georgia side of things. All right,
let's kind of see what's going on over here in
the comments section. We'll get it into a couple more
questions regarding either college football or NFL. Both Ohio State
and Indiana go to the playoffs. So how do you
handy cap this game? That's a really interesting Steve. I've
been in my breakdown on bet on it, I said,
here's the reality. Ohio State had to get that Michigan
like stink off them right, Like it wasn't a monkey
on their back. But Ryan Days really struggled with Michigan
as of late. They go in to ann Arbor, they
get a nice win, they get the cover. Well, Indiana
got to play Perdue. I mean, let's be real, Kirk Signette.
He's been preparing for this Big ten championship game for
a couple of weeks. Now, do you think that has
anything to play in on it? Or do you think
I mean, regardless, both these teams are getting in correct.
Speaker 4: Oh yes, yeah, I mean they're both one hundred percent locks.
So the only two undefeated teams left in the country
and they're one and two. It's kind of a shame
in my opinion they're playing right now. This would have
been a you know, a fun national title game, perhaps
it undefeated. I'm not a big fan of these conference championships.
I think they muddy things up, but I know that
it's just like the college basketball conference tournaments. They won
them their moneymakers. I would prefer to just see the
regular season carry its own way, maybe even have an
extra game or something. But yeah, I do think it's
a legitimate concern. If you're a highest state, you know,
you always say, well, which team is more focused to you?
There's no question in my mind it's Indiana for some
of the reasons you just mentioned. Plus they're the underdog
in this game. And while I think they're just as good,
maybe better in a lot of metrics this year than
Ohio State, and by the way, I've got the numbers
to back that up. I gave those in deep detail
and both stand alone videos at standalone video and the
top the Saturday five pack that I gave you here.
I'll quickly touch on some of that if you just
look at some raw numbers. This season I mentioned, I've
got Indian Ohio State both top five offensess got them
as the two best defenses in the country, the two
best teams overall. Indiana has played a slightly tougher schedule,
and by playing a slightly tougher schedule, they have still
outscored their opponents by about thirty three and a half points.
Ohio State's only outscored theirs by about twenty nine. Indiana's
outgained their opponents well. They've gained seven point two yards
per play on offense Ohio State six point nine, and
once again, that's against a slightly tougher schedule, So I
actually think Indiana is the better offensive team where Ohio
State does have the edges. I ranked them as the
better defensive team. They've given up just eight points a
game three point eight yards per play. But as I
said earlier, I've marked Indiana's the second best defense eleven
points a game, four point five yards per play. So
these are two really good teams. And I gotta admit
it's hard for me to picture or imagine Indiana beating
Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. But then
you look at the fact Ohio State, as you said,
is coming off the Ohio the Michigan game, they're defending
national champs. Seems like a bigger spot for Indiana. Here
my ten thousand game simulation does favor Ohio State. It's
got that defensive edge making the difference, but by just
two and a half points as the simulated result. So
at the current line of plus four four and a half,
there is value with Indiana because we're getting those key
numbers of three and four working in our favor. I'm
looking forward to watching this game. I hope both teams
bring their a game, but it is a little bit tricky,
you know. By the way, it's in Indianapolis, Indiana Lucas
Oil Stadium. Ohio State is going to travel well, but
this is technically a semi home game for Indiana as well.
So there's a lot of reasons to like the Hoosiers.
And I'll leave it with this, So glad Signette's going
to be there for a while. He didn't pull the
lane kiff, and I think it's a brilliant life choice.
He can do what he wants for the next decade.
And keep in mind he was the James Madison coach
just two years ago when they got really good, and
now James Madison is still really good. And obviously Indiana
his first season makes the playoffs and now they're perhaps
the best team in the country. Remarkable job what he's
done there in such a short time.
Speaker 2: All right, Steve Merril, anything that you have to promote
over on wagertalk dot com before we let you get
out of here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a big day in basketball and football. Five
best bets in college and prohoops and college football. Five
football and basketball best bets right now on my page
at wager talk dot com. And I talked about the
videos I gave you twenty of the twenty three college
and pro football games this week for free. Here you
might be a like, well I go to wager Talk,
then well, when I'm giving you twenty free football plays,
most of those are light leans only their TV opinions,
Hey treat them as one percent of bankroll. I give
you analysis for those of you doing your own handicapping.
But if you want my official best bets, the four
percent plays the games I'm actually using, then go to
my page Steve merrillwager Talk dot com. I've got five
strong best bets, two in football, three in basketball, and
then some big NFL best bets tomorrow on Sunday. And
by the way, late last night recorded the NFL Fade
the Public video, which is sixty one and a half
percent for free this season. I've got six six of
the thirteen Sunday games in that video for you. That'll
be up later this afternoon. So check out wager Talk
TV and you don't have to wait, you don't have
to keep checking in. Just click subscribe and click that
bill for an instant alert when the Fade the Public
video is posted. And also, don't forget about that free
play every day on my page Daily free Play Steve
merrillwager Talk dot com. And hey, get there quicker, shortcut,
wt dot buzz, slash sm.
Speaker 2: That's why Steve is the best. I can't wait to
go check out that Fade the Public video because I
really don't like that much this week in the NFL.
Thank you to Steve. That's Steve Merrill there over on X.
You can catch all of his stuff at wt dot
buzzbackslash s in. Let's bring in Kyle Anthony. We have
a big UFC card for today. Kyle. We've got fifteen
minutes a little bit longer than that before kickoffs. So
we're gonna take all of your questions regarding Kyle's UFC picks. So, Kyle,
you've got two that you like for yourself. Why let
some of these questions populate. Davin Shavili versus on is
your first one? Go ahead and let me know why
you like the big underdog here.
Speaker 5: Yes, So in this fight here, we've got Morob de
Wallace Billy he's staying at I'm sorry, minus four fifty
on the comeback. Here we've got Peter Yan he's plus
three to fifty. Now, this is the fight that we've seen.
It was a rematch from the fight back in twenty
twenty three, and it was all Morob.
Speaker 6: Rob went out there, he.
Speaker 5: Dominated, he was able to outland him, he was able
to get the takedowns, do what Morob normally does do,
and he outlanded him doubling the significant strikes one hundred
and forty seven to seventy five, had eleven takedowns. It
just pretty much dominated the fight from start to finish,
one every single round in that five round contest. Now,
Morob really is just a nightmare matchup for everybody. It's
just kind of what it is at this particular point.
And what he does is really reponizing Matt Cardio. He's
able to push forward with the mix of the wrestling
and it's very tough for opponents to kind of get
into any type of rhythm here, and he is able
to really kind of just keep you working. And even
against Peter Jan the last ten they fought, he shot
forty nine takedowns, which is a UFC record. No one's
ever shot that many takedowns in a five round fight.
And the point is it's just he's not if any
if he doesn't get the takedown. He keeps you working,
keeps you draining your Cardio, keeps you being on the
defensive side of it, keep pushing that type of pace,
and he grinds out round after round. And Yan is
a you know, he's a strong, you know fighter overall,
and he's got great counter striking ability and all these
great things that he can do on the feet. But
when you look at this contest now, it's you know,
what has changed? You know, that's really the big part
about this is really what has changed in this flight
compared to the last time that they fought because Jan
got dominated and if you're trying to look for value
at plus three point fifty, you know, maybe, you know,
maybe there is that there. But Jan's gonna be on
the back foot this entire fight. He's gonna be able
to try to, you know, get his defense, get his
offense going.
Speaker 6: He's gonna try to do that. But Morab is.
Speaker 5: Just the guy that's gonna come forward. He's gonna crash
the pocket. Yan is a slow starter consistently throughout his career,
and that's really where Morab, I think, is going to
pick up the pace early. He's gonna be able to
really get his offense going. You know, when you're gonna
have Yan who's gonna really be, you know, kind of
on the defensive not being able to get his offense going.
So this is a spot here where I think there's
going to be multiple times throughout this five rounds fight
that Morob can find a finish here, and you also
look at it as that you know, yes, Morob is
you know, he's definitely kind of played more towards the
you know, winning by decision. You've got decision here sitting
at like minus two thirty minus to forty and some
books there, and it's a high probability that's gonna happen.
Speaker 6: He could just wet blanket him.
Speaker 5: For five rounds, but there is gonna be opportunities here
for him. Sitting at plus four forty from Morob inside
the distance, I think is absolutely worth a sprinkle here.
Speaker 6: I think there's value on that number.
Speaker 5: Again, he's probably gonna wet blanket him for five rounds,
but I think that Morob openly has said also.
Speaker 6: In interviews, I want to get this finished.
Speaker 5: Not that we bet what interviews are being said, but
I think the path is there. So give me Rob
inside the distance at plus four forty.
Speaker 2: All right, Cale, We're gonna take a couple of questions
from the chat before we get into the second game
or second game. Second, let go over after everybody has
to remember it's Saturday morning and my brain is still
glued to football and college basketball. For the show, Kyle,
we have two questions we're gonna get answered, But first
I want you to talk about your hero Parlay. I
just happened to catch that before the show over on Twitter.
Speaker 5: Yes, so I do have it up right now. You
got to check it out. I'm gonna post it on
my page. We've got it up at wager talk dot
com already.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 6: One of them real quickly.
Speaker 5: I do have is Peyton Talbot inside the distance over
Henry Suhudo, and that's like plus two point fifty.
Speaker 1: I like that.
Speaker 5: Here you've got Henry coming in on his basically his
retire it is his retirement fight. He's coming in on
career worst shape. I think this is Peyton Talbot's time.
So I do like that spot to hit. I think
it's a smash spot for him.
Speaker 4: So I like that.
Speaker 6: That's that's one like rest of them. Check him out
Wage of Talk.
Speaker 2: Awesome. Let's get answered a couple of these questions before
we get into your second fight. The first one, Kyle,
what do you think about Tiara and Moreno? I had
VR kind of touch on this one as well, and
hit synopsis was interesting. I'm curious to see if you agree.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, Tyra, is that next generation. Also, you know,
it's twenty five years old.
Speaker 6: He's fantastic.
Speaker 5: We're talking about his grappling ability, his ability to kind
of push that pace, stay in your face. And you know,
the issue here for me on Moreno side is that, yes,
he's on a two fight win streak, Yes he's a
recognizable name, Yes he's the former champion and all those things.
But it's where and tear has really started to kind
of appear for him here where you know he has
had and I think even VR touchdown a little bit
where it's just he's had just absolute wars and absolute battles.
He's come out on the end of them and sometimes
he hasn't. But I think that the MMA Miles is
really high here and this feels like one of those
things where it's kind of like changing of the guard
a little bit here where you've got a guy that's
kind of, you know, heading towards the end. Again, Moreno's
only like thirty or thirty three wherever he is, but
it's just a lot to take in. Plus, if this
was a five round fight, I would definitely lean more
towards Moreno because Reno builds in fights as the fight's
going on.
Speaker 6: He just is a dog out there. He's going to
push for He's going to continue to push forward.
Speaker 5: And we've seen even in a recent fight where Tyra
can slow down later in the fourth round, the fifth round,
he can start to slow down. This is a three
round fight. I think it really plays the advantage for
Tyra here. So you know, minus one twenty minus one
twenty five, I think is a strong number and I
think he could well outperform that in this spot here.
Speaker 2: All right, let's take another question before we get to
your last fight. What do you think about the Duncan
fight line? Move Kyle clv trop the week goes to you.
I'm guessing you bet this one a little bit earlier
than the rest of the market.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I definitely had McKinney in this spot here,
and you know that you have.
Speaker 6: I think Duncan was like minus one eighty.
Speaker 5: Now he's down to like a pick em, and you know,
it's it's I mean, I don't know if Duncan's coming
in with one leg or something like that, but it's
an interesting situation here because I thought this line was
crazy to begin with, you know, and I talked about
it my podcast. It is it just seemed nuts. You know,
it seemed like this is a car crash. Both these
guys are going to come forward. Both these guys are
gonna throw you know. You know you got Duncan who's
kind of like a punching bag. He's willing to come forward.
He blocks punches with his face. McKinney is a very
very hard hitter. And you look at it statistically, I meant,
out of McKinney's seventeen victories, all of them come inside
the distance. And even with duncan fourteen victories, ten come
inside the distance. So I actually do like McKinnie here
to get the job done, but to even get a
little bit more on top of it. Here, which I
think is a great spot is McKinny by knockout inside
the first two rounds. That's sitting around plus three ten,
and I like that spot here. Again, I think these
guys are going to trade. I don't think that mckinnie's
gonna look for any type of takedowns because we've seen Duncan.
He's been able to you know, snatch up the neck,
find a submission. Here, I think it's going to play
out on the feet. I think it plays to the
advantage of McKinny, and I think the knockout the knoo
could come in that first round, which you could give
you a little bit more here, but I'm willing to
take the extra round there. And I think plus three
three ten is a strong, strong number here overall.
Speaker 2: All right, we got about twelve minutes until kickoff. We're
going to take you guys here up in to it
really quickly. I got to tell you guys about what
we've got going on over at wager talk dot com.
Of course, we've got those flex picks right now. You
guys are gonna get twenty five percent off Flex picks
using coupon code flex twenty five. And of course you
can add Kyle to your rotation of handicappers that you want.
Say that you like Steve Merrill on a Friday and
you want Kyle's UFC card on a Saturday. Guess one, guys,
that is how it works. Pick your handicapper change at
any time.
Speaker 1: Kyle.
Speaker 2: Let's get into this second fight that you want to
talk about here, Pantoha versus van Another. I feel like
you just always give me plus money on the show,
because you know that that is what I'm always looking for.
Another little plus money bet right here for our audience.
Speaker 5: Yes, we've got Pantosia here, he's at a minus two
thirty five and the comeback here, we've got Joshua Van
he is plus one ninety and you've got Pantosia here.
He is one of the goats of the flyweight division.
He's on an eight fight win streak, fourth fourth title
fight defenses. This will be his fifth title fight defense,
and at thirty five. Normally at these weight classes, you know,
the shelf life is smaller. You know, as you get
into the larger weight classes, you definitely can laught a
little bit longer.
Speaker 6: But what Pantosia has done is he looked.
Speaker 5: Better and better, which is pretty scary for the guys
in the division at this point here where he's getting
I think his skill set's getting better. I think physically
he's looking better, and he just has a lot of
advantages over opponents and a lot of times that you know,
we look at Pantosia, we say, hey, you know, he's
a grappler. He can submit you, and those are the
things that he can do. But he is a very
very well well rounded fighter overall. He's got good striking
he's got power in his hands. He can move forward
and he's going to look to craft a pocket, throw
big shots. And what he does really, really well is
once you're comfortable on the feet, once you think you're
starting to strike with him, he has very well time
takedowns behind these combinations and he's able to find you know,
you know, security with that and then look for the submission.
Keep you on the ground. Ain't the round, however, he
does do that, and he just has a versatile attack.
And you know, if you've got Van, I am very
high on Van. I think Van is a absolutely great fighter.
He's twenty four years old in this spot, and you know,
he's got great boxing, he's got great you know, volume,
good cardio, a lot of things you want to see.
The issue for me here is the fact that you know,
he's just young in the sport. And he has said openly,
you know, in multiple interviews in the past that he
started doing you know, really training wrestling in twenty twenty three,
you know, and that's not many years that he's really
been able to really focus on that. Now you're heading
against one of the you know, all time greats in
the division in Alejandra Pantosia where he's going to look
for those takedowns. He's gonna look to smother it. And
I just think that, you know, Van's just too raw.
I think it's too much too soon for him, you know,
win or lose tonight. I think he still will get
back to a title shot at some point because very
young has the skill set.
Speaker 6: I just think he needs to build up a little
bit more.
Speaker 5: But the issue for me here is the fact that
you know, yes, Pantosia, you know is has got the
strong I think Van definitely might have a little bit
of an advantage there, but lesser fighters have taken down
Joshua Van and yes, Ban has won some of those fights,
but they've taken him down.
Speaker 6: And you know, Ray s Ruja took him.
Speaker 5: Down four times, Cody Durden twice, Philip Bunyez twice. I mean,
if these guys are able to do it, I think
Pantosia can do it at a much higher clip and
be able to find that finish and you kind of
stick to what he's doing here. And you know, Pantoja,
out of his last five fights, twenty nine takedowns, so
he's been able to find that path and even his
most recent fight against kai Kara Franz, which is a
fight that a lot of people kind of thought, hey,
this is a great, great style to beat Pantoja.
Speaker 6: Where you have kai Kara.
Speaker 5: Franz had an eighty three percent take down defense rate
and also has got great boxing. That's kind of what
we're talking about here against Joshua Van where has great
takedown defense and has good boxing. And in that spot
against KaiA Kara Franz, Pantoja had three takedowns, got a
submission early, and that was that. So I kind of
look at that as a very much similar situation here.
I do like Pantosa to get the job done inside
the distance here getting off the minus two thirty five number,
it's stinn around plus one twenty. I think that's a
great spot for a five rounder. Pantosha goes forward, he
moves forward, he is ultra aggressive, and he's not someone
like you know, Morav Obviously it's a little more positional here.
He's gonna look for the finish show. I think Pantosha
gets a job, gets the job done, keeps the title,
and plus one twenty I think is a solid number.
Speaker 2: All Right, we've got two more questions in the chat
before we get out of here. If you guys haven't yet,
there's almost four thousand to be watching live, please hit
that like button. If you guys are not already subscribed
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And of course, if you're interested in becoming an insider
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Backslash insiders. All right, another hard one, barn yus.
Speaker 6: I wu verse.
Speaker 5: It's ioua versus ibo, But I do I think I
wu here, which you know, I do have him in
something else, But I think he wins this fight here.
This is another fight that's gonna be an absolute car crash,
both guys coming forward. I think I will buy knockout
is a nice spot here. I think all of his
finishes I believe have been in the first round. And
now he's going to make a spot here against a
guy who's willing to come forward and throw. I think
I will knock him out early. I like that first
round knockout there.
Speaker 2: All right, Last question, does Kyle like Ferris Ziam tonight?
Speaker 1: I actually do.
Speaker 5: I think that he gets a job done here. This
is another one where the line movement moved. We bet
him at about minus one thirty, he's sitting around minus
one sixty five one seventy, And I think that this
is a spot here where in the.
Speaker 6: Seam is he's a good fighter. I think he's got ability.
Speaker 5: But every fight that he's basically won, he was losing
outright and then came back and had some spectacular finish.
And I think that Ziem is just very clean in
the pocket, far more technical, far more cleaner, and I
think he can he can kind of keep it at
range or look for takedowns here.
Speaker 6: So I definitely think Zion gets a job done.
Speaker 2: All right, Kyle Anthony wager Talk dot com at Kyle
Anthony UFC there on social media, Kyle, anything you would
like to add before we get out of here.
Speaker 5: No last thing is check out my page at waitretalk
dot com.
Speaker 6: I have seven plays for this weekend. I normally do not.
Speaker 5: I normally have got about four maybe five four in
in that range, and this year I pretty much stuck
to that. About two events ago I had a ton
of plays that I did love. We cash fourteen units
for clients that night. I feel the same vibes here.
I love a lot of spots here. Great from a
entertainment perspective as well as a betting perspective, So check
it out waitrotalk dot com and let's get the job
done on the last pay per view of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Love to see it, Kyle, Thank you for hanging out
with us here and answering all the audiences questions again.
Head over to Kyle's page wut dot buzz backslash Ka
you guys can see his hero parlay over on x
as well. All right, guys, we're gonna get out of here.
We got about five minutes until kickoff. Good luck on
your wagers today, Aerlepstin. I'll be back tomorrow with Yanni
the Greek Jesse Rule from wager talk dot com and
John Murray from the Westgate Superbook