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Speaker 1: We love.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Wager Talks. Last call Kelly Stewart here. You

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guys know me as Kelly in Vegas, VR is going

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to be up here first soon as he gets logged

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in Steve Merrill for some college football and hopefully some

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college basketball insight for everybody, and then Kyle Anthony is

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going to be here talking all things UFC. First of all,

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shout out to our insiders in the chat. There's quite

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a few of you guys that have just joined wt

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dot Buzz backslash insiders if you're looking to be a

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little extra special here with us at wager talking some

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early access to things like bet on It, Marco's Deli,

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of course, some premium access stuff like VR steam Room

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and so forth. So no ard to Caesar. The joke

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in my friends group chat is he's been on PTO

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for the last few weeks. I think these shows are

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catching up with him and he needs saturdays off at

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least to just work behind the counter there at the

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Westgates super Book. But he did send me a text message,

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so I'm going to pass some stuff along for you guys.

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Let me ask him, are we need your best bet

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because you guys are gonna ask in the chat. We

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know that's exactly what you guys are gonna do. I

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got some college basketball, of course, I've got the rest

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of these conference championships. The first game up, we've got

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BYU Texas Tech for the Big twelve Championship there in Arlington.

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That one starts in fifty nine minutes. Shocker. He says,

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we're gonna need BYU. I think I'm gonna play BYU

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as well, guys. I got that twelve to one ticket

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on Texas Tech sitting in my pocket. But I think

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this is a lot, a lot of points for a

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team that should be able to keep it a lot closer.

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We'll ask a VR when he gets in here about

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his thoughts. Miami, O of Ohio, Western Michigan. They have

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no decision on the MAC Championship game.

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Speaker 1: Ooh.

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Speaker 2: The SEC Championship game is gonna bebout four o'clock eastern here,

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and Uga is not gonna be a need. That is

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not good news for me. I like Georgia in this game.

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They said small, but they're gonna need Alabama as far

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as the ACC Championship goes. If you guys watched bet

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on it, I gave out Duke as my best bet.

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We saw the line go the other way and now

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it's starting to come back. If you've got your Odds

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Logic screen open, you can absolutely see the movement there.

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And make sure you guys do have that open or

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the wager talk for you live on screen, because when

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we can bring in VR here in a minute, he

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is going to be the guy that tells you to

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look at that screen and find the best of the number,

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so he said. The Sharps took two and a half

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with Uva, now three and a half. We even saw four.

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But in terms of needing something specific for this game,

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they don't. But they're gonna need Virginia big time for

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the futures book. So I'm guessing they're gonna book to

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get some Duke money and then need Virginia to win

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the game. Last, but not least, the Big Ten Championship,

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Sharps took six five and now down to four with Indiana,

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they're gonna need Ohio State. That one is gonna be

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an interesting one because me and everybody else I know

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liked Indiana early. I missed the best of the number.

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I said, I'm going to stay away. But Kirk Signetti

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as an underdog is rather enticing. And then I'm gonna

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give you guy some of this sharp college basketball as

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well as arts. Best bat here in a minute. But

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VR just popped on, so we're gonna see what he's

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got for us here. VR, We're gonna take you all

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the way until Steve Merrill gets here, whatever time that is.

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Steve kind of marches to the beat of his own drum,

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so sometimes he logs in early, some N logs in late.

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But I know we've got a ton of stuff because

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we've got college football today, We've got college basketball to day,

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and of course we have UFC.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the four and a halfs are all going

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to be taken out in the next ten minutes, right now,

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right now, as I was waiting, right now, in three

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different body accounts, Indiana plus four and a half, indianaplus

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four and a half, they're taking out all the four

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and a half. If you look the Odrolgic screen right now,

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Ohio State should be lighting up going to four even

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money yep, yeap ow Okay.

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Speaker 2: See, So I feel like this is like everyone And

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when I said I wasn't just meaning there the squares

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and the record everyone.

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Speaker 1: And they're even taking the later number. You remember the

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six was available, and you'll rarely see a betting syndic

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get do buy order like this a point and a

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half later on a Saturday morning, Like, unless there's injuries

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or something like that, it's very rare. I would I

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was worried that I was going to see Ohio State

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Steam today once it got down the four, but it's no.

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Instead they came in with it.

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Speaker 2: Do you think the Ohio State Steam is going to

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come from like.

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Speaker 1: And now forget it unless it gets the three and

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a half that's it. Yeah. Yeah, it's going to have

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to come off four for sure.

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Speaker 2: That makes sense. Uh. You know again, I wish I

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had Indiana plus six and pocket early in the week

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and maybe I was coming back on the other side.

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That one's gonna be an interesting one late night here

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on the East Coast. I'm excited to watch that one.

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Speaker 1: I took, Yeah, I took. I took the four and

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a half. I ended up taking the four and a

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half in that one. I'm with you in Alabama and Georgia.

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I took the three with Alabama. Bought the hook up

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when it was two and a half. Juice. I just

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thought this was a coin flip game at the very worst.

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I saw the Georgia's theme early, but as you can see,

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it's come back the other way now because I do,

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I think most think it is a coin flip type

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of game between these two teams.

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Speaker 2: V question real quick. So the joke is Kirby Smart

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can't beat Alabama right? Does not play into your handicap

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at all? Or is that just a narrative talking point

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on ESPN?

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Speaker 1: It's noise, but you have to consider it, do you

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know what I mean? Like, it's hard to quantify it.

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What is it worth to the betting line? But we'd

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be foolish not to try to factor it a little

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bit because there's just some teams, some coaches, some athletes

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that just have the other person's number for whatever reason,

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they just get the best of them. And you have

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to pay attention to it again, especially if you have

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a sample size that's repetitive and it's constantly happening, like

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you can't just ignore it. The difficulty becomes like am

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I now betting for it to continue or betting for

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it to stop? That's where the difficulty comes in that

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you could argue both. That's where it's tough and as handicappers. Again,

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that's what makes the market. One's gonna say it'll continue,

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and another ones's gonna say no, he should progress towards

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his mean or what you have you. But yeah, I

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factor it, but I try to eliminate as much noise

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as possible and stick strictly to numbers because they're the

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one thing that have no opinion. They don't care, they

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have no bias, they don't remember what happened last week

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like they they don't, they don't care at all. That's

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why I like to use power ratings and and data

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and stats because it's not an opinion where you know,

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within everybody could form their their own opinion and make

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it make sense to them. But with the with the like,

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it's hard to arguate. It's no longer an opinion. This

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is factual stuff, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, VR, let me know what you've got. Power Ratings wise,

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there's a video that I want to start doing. I

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think maybe we might have to make wait till next year.

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That way you guys have the entire season of it

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or VR and I go through Power Ratings every single

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week because I do think it is really great information

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to help you guys learn how to handicap these games yourself?

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VR kind of go through that top ten, who do

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you think should make the college football playoff? Obviously we've

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got to let the games play out today, but I'm

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genuinely curious because there's all of this noise. Right, I

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can sit here and I can argue that BYU should

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get in over a Notre Dame team and a Miami team,

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But I also know that Notre Dame would be favored

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over both of those teams, right, understanding that, but then

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we look at it from an eye test perspective. Who's

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playing for a conference championship, who doesn't play in a

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conference championship but or who's not even invited to theirs.

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So there's a lot of different factors that is going

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into the college waball plant. But I want to know

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from a pure numbers perspective, who your top twelve teams are.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, with zero bias at all, strictly offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency,

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strength of schedule, past guest friends future. They don't really

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have a future strength of schedule, But those are the

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data points that go into these power ratings. Points, score

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differential at home, point differential at road, like the things

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that actually matter, and here's my top twelve. All right,

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Ohio State's number one, Indiana's number two, they have that right.

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Number three is Notre Dame. The third top power rated team.

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Number four is Oregon. Number five is Alabama, Number six

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is Georgia, Number seven is Mississippi. Number eight is Texas Tech.

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Number nine is Penn State, Number ten is Utah, eleven Miami, Florida,

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and twelve Texas. And right behind Texas is Michigan, which

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dropped a couple in my power rais. Miami went up,

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Michigan went down in power ratings from last week. Notre

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Dame went up, Mississippi went down, Alabama went up a little.

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Those are the adjustments that he made. And the difference

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between Ohio State and Indiana is about four and a

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half points, is what he has the power ratings, and

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the difference between Ohio State and stay the number you

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know twelve team Texas is about thirteen points. So Ohio

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State's thirteen points better than almost two touchdowns better than

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the ten twelfth team today. Real quickly, BYU, I have

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in the top twenty. I have them at nineteen, and

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I have Texas Tech at sixteen. Miami, oh I have

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it eighty eight, and I have Western Michigan ninety five.

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So Western Michigan's the lower power ratings a year.

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Speaker 2: Can you go back to that real quick? Did you, mom?

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Texas A and M was your ninth team, not Texas Tech.

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Sorry because you just said Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: Texas Texas Tech. Okay, Texas A and M is is

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my seventeenth.

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Speaker 2: Seventeenth Sorry about that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that's done, is seventeenth. Oklahoma is in front of

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Texas A and M.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 1: Okay, just numbers wise, Just numbers wise. Michigan's in front

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of them, Miami's in front of them. Pence State would

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be a one and a half point favorite over A

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and M. It's just to know it is what it

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is like Again, it's not my opinion. It's just what

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the numbers produce. And it's produced profit like. It's different

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if it wasn't producing profit. But obviously his math makes

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sense because it's produced profit is again, it's not going

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to be one hundred percent. A lot of times the

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power ratings aren't going to play out that the lower

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power rated team wins plenty, but over the long term,

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over statistically significant sample size, the power ratings are going

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to play out more than they're not. That's exactly why

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again not the tout number one in college football the

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entire season, only three losing weeks out of four team

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using nothing but the power ratings. I try to keep

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my opinion away. Anytime I did that and started really

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trying to handicap it, I made it harder than it

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needs to be. When I simply used power ratings and

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looked at injury reports, that was it. It made it so

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much easier. The line that his numbers show compared to

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what Vegas has. When there's a difference, we fire, and

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so far it's been profitable in college football. And like

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I said today, there's a couple of those games that

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are power rated different than what the point spread is,

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and you should expect that. It's that time of the year.

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We're getting into the playoffs, into the bowls. The narratives

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we already have them, We've already drawn our conclusions on

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who's good who's not, and the markets saturated by recreational betters.

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So yeah, it's going to be mostly the eye tests

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based on the point spreads. So you get a lot

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of value times like this.

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Speaker 2: All right, perfect, Let's get into some of this other

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sharp stuff you've seen headed in to this college football

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and college basketball Saturday. Everybody get your pen and paper ready,

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because I'm.

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Speaker 1: Just gonna let them know. Here we go. All right,

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some of the college football stuff that's still relevant. Nothing

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really on the Texas Tech BYU game. Western Michigan Miami Ohio. Miami,

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Ohio got steamed at the opener. That's why it went

240
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,759
down from three down to two. Since then, the public's

241
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,720
driven it back up a little bit. That's public money

242
00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,759
on Western Michigan, not sharp money. Sharps are on Miami O. Georgia, Alabama.

243
00:12:31,879 --> 00:12:34,879
You know what happened their early money on Georgia when

244
00:12:34,879 --> 00:12:37,039
it got up the near three. That's where other sharps

245
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,919
liked Alabama. It's a coin flip game. There's no surprise

246
00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,159
you have a difference of opinion with that kind of

247
00:12:42,159 --> 00:12:48,080
tight line. Duke Virginia wise guys, public my cleaning lady.

248
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,639
They're all on Virginia. They all love the Cavaliers. Today

249
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,480
she got down at three and a half. I told

250
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,000
her she took a bad number. Could he got minus

251
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,759
three earlier? So she's hoping to be the product The

252
00:12:57,799 --> 00:13:00,879
good luck books are going to need to do big time,

253
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:05,399
big time, big time. That that's the most one sided

254
00:13:05,639 --> 00:13:09,360
actually that one. I know everybody saying Indiana Ohio state,

255
00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:12,039
but there's a lot of contrarians who heard that the

256
00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,360
whole world's on Indiana, that they're taking Ohio state. Rest

257
00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,600
is sure. The Ohio state money's gonna come in at

258
00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:20,320
four minus oh five. You'll get Ohio state money. That'll

259
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,279
be a little more balanced. When we get the kickoff

260
00:13:22,519 --> 00:13:25,000
right now, you may be hear and it's all Indiana

261
00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:26,879
like we hear the super Bowl after the first week,

262
00:13:26,919 --> 00:13:29,440
it's all on Team A of course, because they see

263
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:31,559
the line moving that way. Why would anyone take Ohio

264
00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:33,399
State when the line's going from six to five and

265
00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:34,960
a half to five to four and a half to four.

266
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,000
I'm gonna wait till it hits bottom. Then I'm gonna

267
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,320
bet the favorite. You're gonna get the favorite money today.

268
00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,720
Don't be surprised, added Games. I don't have anything except

269
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:47,120
that Montana, Montana in South Dakota State. Every wise, guy.

270
00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:51,480
Speaker 3: From h east of the Mississippi, west of the Mississippi,

271
00:13:51,639 --> 00:13:54,600
north of the Mississippi, south of the Mississippi has a

272
00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:57,759
Montana ticket in their pocket. They got Montana minus one,

273
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,360
Montana minus one and a half, Montana minus two, Montana

274
00:14:01,399 --> 00:14:03,240
on the money line, Montana.

275
00:14:02,799 --> 00:14:05,159
Speaker 1: Minus three, even money. Let's just say there's a lot

276
00:14:05,159 --> 00:14:09,240
of money on Montana today over South Dakota State. That's

277
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:12,000
that one added game that really matters, that sticks out

278
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,759
that FCS playoffs because those you know, if you look,

279
00:14:14,799 --> 00:14:17,480
there's not much line movements off the opener. The limits

280
00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,279
just aren't really high. They'll bet them off screen probably

281
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:24,000
today and mix it in with everything else, but that

282
00:14:24,039 --> 00:14:29,519
one got action immediately, real quickly. Some college basketball for you,

283
00:14:30,039 --> 00:14:32,519
I'll just read off a couple six fifty Lafayette plus

284
00:14:32,519 --> 00:14:35,879
thirteen and a half seven nineteen, Florida State plus seventeen,

285
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,200
seven thirty three, Oklahoma minus five six eighteen Butler minus

286
00:14:40,279 --> 00:14:42,399
four six po oh two, Michigan State plus one and

287
00:14:42,399 --> 00:14:44,639
a half, seven oh two, Brand Canyon plus three and

288
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,679
a half, six oh three, Iowa State plus six, six

289
00:14:47,799 --> 00:14:50,399
seventy three, Southeast Missouri State plus six and a half

290
00:14:50,799 --> 00:14:53,639
and seven eighteen North Dakota plus six and a half.

291
00:14:53,679 --> 00:14:56,559
So you got college basketball, you have college football. You're

292
00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:57,799
just ready to make money today.

293
00:14:58,399 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 2: We are ready to make money today. Let me get

294
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,399
give you guys some of that sharp college basketball from

295
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,600
Art as well. He said they the sharp sub Duke

296
00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,279
plus one and a half at Mesu plus seventeen and

297
00:15:07,279 --> 00:15:09,799
a half to Lane plus seven and a half, New

298
00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:12,960
Mexico plus two and a half, Michigan minus twenty three

299
00:15:13,159 --> 00:15:16,240
that Iowa say game you just mentioned plus six and

300
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,039
Wyoming minus fourteen. Art de Caesar says his best bet

301
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,600
is Dayton plus five and a half. Here on this

302
00:15:23,759 --> 00:15:26,679
beautiful college basketball satura. If you guys do have a

303
00:15:26,679 --> 00:15:29,279
college basketball question, Steve Merrel is gonna get it answered

304
00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:32,440
for you. But first VR anything you would like to

305
00:15:32,679 --> 00:15:33,759
leave our audience with.

306
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, UFC, don't overlook YOUFC three twenty three tonight. It's

307
00:15:38,639 --> 00:15:41,519
the last pay per view card of the year before

308
00:15:41,559 --> 00:15:43,960
swipping over to Paramount for the new year. No more

309
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:47,000
pay per views. They will be called numbered events moving forward.

310
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,840
You never have to pay pay per view again. Stack

311
00:15:49,919 --> 00:15:53,960
cord from top to bottom. Give you a small favorite,

312
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,519
small favorite, and may save you some money because I

313
00:15:56,559 --> 00:15:58,639
know there's a lot of money on Brandon Moraine, a

314
00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:00,879
lot of sharp money on Brandon Moren be careful with that.

315
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:03,879
His best minutes. I love the guy I made a

316
00:16:03,919 --> 00:16:05,360
lot of money with him, but his best minutes are

317
00:16:05,399 --> 00:16:07,519
behind him. At thirty two years old, this is going

318
00:16:07,559 --> 00:16:10,120
to be his nineteenth UFC fight, and over his last

319
00:16:10,159 --> 00:16:13,919
seven or eight, five of those went to bonuses, meaning

320
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,519
they were wars, and every one of those wars went

321
00:16:16,519 --> 00:16:19,000
to a decision, and all five of those decisions the

322
00:16:19,039 --> 00:16:21,360
results he went to two and one, which tells me

323
00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,120
even in those fights he lost and one wars, whether

324
00:16:25,159 --> 00:16:26,960
he won he got beat up, whether he lost he

325
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,399
got beat up. That takes a toll on you. Tiara

326
00:16:29,519 --> 00:16:32,480
twenty five years old, coming into his prime on a

327
00:16:32,559 --> 00:16:36,559
nice Hotstree has great grappling game. I think he's got

328
00:16:36,679 --> 00:16:41,480
enough to create enough problems for what's it called Moreno.

329
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,840
This line should be at least minus one fifty minus

330
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,240
one sixty because true odds he wins this fight two

331
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,120
out of three times should be closer to two hundred.

332
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,080
So if you get wins one fifty one sixty, it's

333
00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,919
a great bet you're able to get one twenty one

334
00:16:52,039 --> 00:16:54,360
thirty Because of the Moreno name, I think that's a

335
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,919
good bet. And also I think Macy Barber too much.

336
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,200
Negative about Macy Barber because of that would happen to

337
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,840
her in June. Was it a seizure? Was it a

338
00:17:02,879 --> 00:17:05,279
panic attack? Who gives a shit. Whatever happened happened. And

339
00:17:05,319 --> 00:17:07,640
now we're getting her at minus one seventy one eighty

340
00:17:07,799 --> 00:17:11,200
instead of minus two fifty because where's her mental state? Bro.

341
00:17:11,559 --> 00:17:13,400
As soon as she starts fighting, she could make it

342
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,839
to the octagon. She'll be fine. Can she get to

343
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,200
the octagon. That's what takes the most balls, getting walking

344
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,599
there in your underwear with twenty thousand people screaming. You're

345
00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:24,200
about to lock yourself in a cage with someone that

346
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,079
wants to hurt you. Not beat you on the scoreboard,

347
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,680
actually hurt you, kill you, put you in the hospital,

348
00:17:30,759 --> 00:17:34,240
named you. Fighting's very different. You don't play fighting like

349
00:17:34,279 --> 00:17:36,640
you play baseball. You play football, you don't play fighting.

350
00:17:36,759 --> 00:17:38,599
So it's a little bit different. Once she gets hit,

351
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,880
she'll turn into Macy Barber. Just so if she gets

352
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,720
to the octagon, you bet Macy Barber. So there's two

353
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:46,079
small favors for you.

354
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,079
Speaker 2: Awesome, VR, you are the best. Appreciate you hanging out

355
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,640
with us here every single Saturday on Last Call. You

356
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:54,920
guys can also catch VR on wager Talk today. He'll

357
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,440
be back tomorrow here on last call with Aaron Lefsin

358
00:17:57,559 --> 00:18:01,079
doing all of the NFL stuff. Steam Room will be

359
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,880
going live right after for his premium subscribers, and of

360
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,160
course we'll be back with bet on It here on Wednesday.

361
00:18:07,519 --> 00:18:10,720
Right now, guys, flex picks twenty five percent off with

362
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,039
code flex twenty five. You get to pick your experts

363
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,680
your way over at wager talk dot com, WT dot buzz,

364
00:18:17,759 --> 00:18:22,720
Backslash Flex full daily all access. You can switch cappers

365
00:18:22,759 --> 00:18:25,559
at any time, you can skip days, and yes, of

366
00:18:25,599 --> 00:18:30,200
course those coveted five percent best bets are included. VR

367
00:18:30,319 --> 00:18:32,839
is one of those handicappers you guys can flex pix with,

368
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,079
so we appreciate him. You can get him out of here.

369
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:36,759
I know he's got a lot of work to do. Yeah,

370
00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:39,799
eating up until kickoff. Thank you to VR at Greek

371
00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,640
Underscore Gamblers there on all your social channels. We're going

372
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,440
to bring in Steve Merrill. We're going to talk some

373
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:49,319
college football. We're going to talk some college basketball. Steve Merrill,

374
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,240
it's been a little while. Welcome in, Kelly.

375
00:18:54,279 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 4: I gotta sit down here. I'm sitting down now. There

376
00:18:56,759 --> 00:18:58,079
we are, all right. I was so excited. I was

377
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,720
standing up for a second, apparently good to see. I

378
00:19:00,759 --> 00:19:03,680
almost wore the gray hoodie and I was like, I'm

379
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,079
going to go formal because this is a special occasion,

380
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,559
and you wore black. You got to head black on

381
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,680
ey had black, so I should have crossed down and

382
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,200
wore the away uniform instead of the the home black here.

383
00:19:13,279 --> 00:19:15,960
But yeah, big Saturday, lots of sports going. We don't

384
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:18,920
have NFL yet, and I look next week, we don't

385
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,000
have Saturday NFL. We only have the Army Navy game,

386
00:19:21,039 --> 00:19:22,920
which is interesting, and then the following week we get

387
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,640
a couple Saturday NFL games. We can't say we have

388
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,720
four major sports going today, but we got three of

389
00:19:27,759 --> 00:19:28,799
them and then another one tomorrow.

390
00:19:28,839 --> 00:19:31,759
Speaker 2: Obviously, Yeah, we'll take it. That's going to be a

391
00:19:31,799 --> 00:19:34,559
really great day of college basketball. And that's why I

392
00:19:34,559 --> 00:19:36,480
wrote you earlier and said, Steve, are you ready for

393
00:19:36,559 --> 00:19:41,039
college basketball? Because me myself, I usually wait until around

394
00:19:41,079 --> 00:19:44,440
this time, starting next weekend to really dive into college basketball.

395
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,640
I know a lot of people are going to argue

396
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,599
that you're late, but college football and NFL are my

397
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,799
bread and butter, so college basketball is kind of that.

398
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,240
Third When did you start handicapping college basketball, and how

399
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:55,279
are you doing it in it so far?

400
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're definitely not late, and I think, if anything,

401
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:00,160
you need to be cautious more than ever with this

402
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:02,759
whole transfer portal and anybody that tells you they're dialed

403
00:20:02,759 --> 00:20:06,400
into college basketball November's line. It's that straightforward now, maybe

404
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,240
twenty years ago and you and I started, you could

405
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,279
be dialed in in November. But most of these head

406
00:20:11,319 --> 00:20:13,319
coaches don't even know what they have when the season

407
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,640
begins in November because their entire roster seventy percent of

408
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,920
it is new, and they don't have preseason games, they

409
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,519
don't have an NBA preseason. They play maybe a Division

410
00:20:22,599 --> 00:20:25,079
III or a travel team, and then they get into it.

411
00:20:25,079 --> 00:20:27,920
Everybody started November third, that Monday, there were no trickle

412
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,200
in games, so you definitely would to tread lightly. But

413
00:20:31,279 --> 00:20:33,720
I do think now that we're in December, we have six, seven,

414
00:20:33,759 --> 00:20:36,119
eight games under our belt with teams, we can start

415
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,720
to look at what teams are. We don't have to

416
00:20:37,759 --> 00:20:39,599
guess anymore. So yes, I think this is a great

417
00:20:39,599 --> 00:20:41,880
time to start getting into college hoops. And then, of

418
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:45,240
course I love conference action. In January and February I

419
00:20:45,279 --> 00:20:48,000
will have my weekly Top twenty five video for Saturday

420
00:20:48,039 --> 00:20:50,519
games in January and February. And by the way, I've

421
00:20:50,559 --> 00:20:52,920
had some free play videos this week. Gave you the

422
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,440
under in that Tennessee Syracuse game on Tuesday. Also talked

423
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,640
about a game on Monday's Wager Talk Today, I usually

424
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,680
talked about a game, including this up coming Monday. Real quick, Kelly,

425
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,160
I want to touch on a game that starts here

426
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,039
at noon Easter because you mentioned that Arthur Deceiser likes Dayton,

427
00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:08,440
and that caught my attention because we have a very

428
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:13,200
unique situation in this Dayton Virginia game at noon Eastern.

429
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,640
It's being played on a neutral court in Charlotte, exactly

430
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,400
where the UVA Cavaliers are playing the football game eight

431
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,559
hours later, so we'll see how neutral that court is.

432
00:21:22,559 --> 00:21:24,160
I think Virginia is going to have a semi home

433
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,440
game at the Spectrum Center. Not a game I'm using today,

434
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,720
but I actually would maybe disagree with Art based on

435
00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:34,039
the matchup. UVA likes is an excellent three point shooting team,

436
00:21:34,039 --> 00:21:36,160
and Dayton gives up a lot of threes. Out of

437
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,039
three hundred and sixty some teams, they give up three

438
00:21:39,079 --> 00:21:43,000
hundred and thirty three and twenty first percentage wise most

439
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,200
threes per game, and Uva also the second best off

440
00:21:46,319 --> 00:21:48,720
offensive rebounding team in the country. Dayton is only two

441
00:21:48,839 --> 00:21:51,680
hundred and seventy ninth. I think Uva has some edges

442
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,079
in this game. And once again, it's going to be

443
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,079
a semi home game. How big is that going to be?

444
00:21:55,079 --> 00:21:57,000
You go to the Uva game at noon and then

445
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,640
you go watch Uva football at eight o'clock Eastern in

446
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,480
charlot like, maybe win the ACC championship and make the

447
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:03,839
FOO football playoffs.

448
00:22:04,319 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: That will be an interesting one. I think the every

449
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,200
sportsbook on the planet's going to be cheering for Duke.

450
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,759
I got my buddies texting me right now. What do

451
00:22:10,839 --> 00:22:12,160
the needs? What are the needs? What are the needs?

452
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,359
And I do have a disclaimer because John Murray had

453
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,400
to remind somebody this morning that every single book is

454
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,519
going to possibly need something different. It depends on what

455
00:22:19,519 --> 00:22:21,880
they're booking for. It depends on what the futures market

456
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,240
looks like. Remember a lot of those futures bets are

457
00:22:24,279 --> 00:22:27,160
going to be cashing this weekend as well, so kind

458
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,799
of keep that with a little grain of salt. I

459
00:22:28,839 --> 00:22:31,519
am personally on Duke. You know what, Steve ball lady,

460
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:37,319
break down that game your local to UVA close enough,

461
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,160
and I'm curious as to your thoughts. They kind of

462
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,200
came out of nowhere except you thought that they had

463
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,960
a shot to win the ACC. I think you're the

464
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,440
only one that I remember hearing on wager Talk that

465
00:22:48,559 --> 00:22:50,160
was like, hey, you guys should be looking at this

466
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:51,400
Cavaliers team.

467
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, in my whole life, it's always been not my

468
00:22:53,799 --> 00:22:56,279
UVA Cavaliers and a big rival of Bim and Mary.

469
00:22:56,319 --> 00:22:58,599
But I do kind of have a soft spot form

470
00:22:58,599 --> 00:23:00,200
now be nice to see a state school get in.

471
00:23:00,279 --> 00:23:03,400
And by the way, let's remember if Duke does pull

472
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,000
the upset here and it's it's possible, I mean, they

473
00:23:06,039 --> 00:23:08,200
got about a forty five percent chance of winning this game.

474
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:09,720
They're only a three and a half point dog in

475
00:23:09,839 --> 00:23:11,480
it open two and a half. So if the opening

476
00:23:11,519 --> 00:23:14,559
line was correct, the odds are almost pick them. If

477
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,559
Uva is to fall in this game, the ACC is

478
00:23:17,599 --> 00:23:19,039
not going to get in that large. I think they've

479
00:23:19,039 --> 00:23:21,039
got Miami right now is about an eleven percent chance

480
00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:23,880
is still sneaking in because it's going to go to

481
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,000
the top five conference champions, which means James Madison. The

482
00:23:27,079 --> 00:23:29,400
Duke's not my James Madison Dukes. By the way, the

483
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,519
other two schools I applied and got into were UVA

484
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,480
and JMU. How ironic is that. I would love to

485
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,000
see JMU get in disrupt the system a little bit.

486
00:23:38,839 --> 00:23:42,599
And also North Texas about fifty percent to Lane forty percent.

487
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,720
You know, obviously Tulane winning that game last night changes

488
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,039
all the metrics there. This is before the games are played,

489
00:23:48,079 --> 00:23:50,920
so it's going to be either Tulane or James Madison

490
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,240
when the final rankings come out. If UVA falls, I'm

491
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,839
not using this game. But I do like UVA. And

492
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:58,680
the reason I'm not using the game is because I

493
00:23:58,759 --> 00:24:01,440
like UVA. If that makes city since because as you said, Kelly,

494
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,400
everybody is on the Cavaliers and this one, it's hard

495
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,119
for me to disagree. You know, you always hear that

496
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,160
analogy it's so hard to beat a team twice. Well,

497
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,599
they just played less than a month ago. I get

498
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,000
that UVA was a four and a half point road dog.

499
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,680
They won out right, and there was nothing misleading about it.

500
00:24:15,839 --> 00:24:19,440
They had almost a three hundred yard edge offensively. So

501
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,200
we'll see if Duke can make the adjustments. The Cavaliers

502
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,000
I don't think are any better offensively. In fact, I

503
00:24:24,079 --> 00:24:26,160
rate Duke is the better offensive team in this game.

504
00:24:26,559 --> 00:24:29,160
What the Cavaliers have is a huge defensive edge. Duke

505
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,799
is not a good defensive team this season, and the

506
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,160
fact that UVA still has a defensive edge and had

507
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,359
a three hundred yard offensive edge in the first meeting.

508
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,680
It'd be Virginia pass, but once again, wouldn't be surprised

509
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,880
and maybe see this game land on three. You know,

510
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,319
you and Janni both talked about how it's crossed over

511
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,720
that key number open two and a half now three

512
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,160
and a half really four. A lot of fours out there. Now.

513
00:24:49,839 --> 00:24:52,359
I don't disagree. I'd be on Virginia, but I'm passing

514
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,799
because I don't like being on a really public, one

515
00:24:54,839 --> 00:24:57,240
sided action, and that is definitely what the Cavaliers are tonight.

516
00:24:57,839 --> 00:24:59,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, We've got a few games like that that's going

517
00:24:59,839 --> 00:25:01,640
to be really interesting. If you guys have a question

518
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,240
for Steve, drop it in the chat. We're gonna pivot

519
00:25:04,279 --> 00:25:06,000
to college basketball just for a little bit because the

520
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,000
entire chat is going titan CT. One of our insiders

521
00:25:09,079 --> 00:25:10,559
is kind of going back and forth with Rob and

522
00:25:10,599 --> 00:25:13,839
they're talking about this Marquette game. What do you think

523
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,960
of about some of these teams that have started out

524
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:22,279
the season really, I won't say red hot, but pretty

525
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,720
on fire, right, Like you want to bet on teams

526
00:25:24,759 --> 00:25:27,119
and they stay hot, or you kind of the buck

527
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:28,839
the trend guy that's like, all right, we are now

528
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,480
paying too much of a premium for some of these teams.

529
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, you really have to look at who they've played.

530
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:35,559
First of all, you know I talked about we don't

531
00:25:35,559 --> 00:25:37,559
know who they're playing as far as their own players

532
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:39,960
until a few games in. But you also want to

533
00:25:40,039 --> 00:25:42,440
check out the schedule because keep in mind last week

534
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,640
late November, we get all those neutral core tournaments over

535
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,839
the Thanksgiving week in which teams play three games in

536
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,000
three days, and you got to be really careful using

537
00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:52,799
those results as well. You also got to throw out

538
00:25:52,799 --> 00:25:54,920
when they played these Division three teams. You know, when

539
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,880
they play teams they've beaten by fifty you can't use

540
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,599
those numbers either. So I always kind of look at

541
00:25:59,599 --> 00:26:02,680
the the schedule of work, who they've played, and Marquette

542
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,279
so far this year has started off just five and

543
00:26:05,319 --> 00:26:09,039
four straight up and that fifth win last Tuesday was

544
00:26:09,039 --> 00:26:13,839
in overtime against a very below average Valparaiso team. They

545
00:26:13,839 --> 00:26:15,839
did have a one point lost to Oklahoma, also an

546
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,319
overtime loss of the Dayton team we just talked about,

547
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,559
lost to Indiana and Maryland, so they've played some tough opponents.

548
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,680
And in this one though, I've got Wisconsin winning by

549
00:26:24,759 --> 00:26:28,000
double digits. So not ready to jump on Marquet quite yet.

550
00:26:28,039 --> 00:26:31,039
I think Wisconsin is the better team. And also as

551
00:26:31,079 --> 00:26:33,559
far as the matchup goes, the one thing that jumps

552
00:26:33,599 --> 00:26:36,000
out to me is Wisconsin does not play slow anymore.

553
00:26:36,039 --> 00:26:37,680
You know, We've talked about the tempo change in the

554
00:26:37,759 --> 00:26:40,359
last few years, and right now I've got them in

555
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,319
the top third in the country in tempo. Marquette usually

556
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,559
likes to play fast. With Shaka, they always played tough

557
00:26:45,599 --> 00:26:48,160
half court defense. They turned their team their opponents over.

558
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,559
Shaka Smart's done that ever since he was at a

559
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,799
VCU with that havoc defense that got them from the

560
00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:55,519
playing round to the final four over a decade ago.

561
00:26:55,519 --> 00:26:57,880
Wisconsin one of the best ball handling teams in the country.

562
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,599
They only have about a fourteen percent turnover ration. I

563
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:01,920
don't think this is a good matchup for.

564
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: Marquette all right, A lot of people think taking the

565
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,079
points there is the way to go. I kind of

566
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,720
agree with Steve here. I'm not ready to fade Wisconsin

567
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,039
just yet. I know eleven and a half looks really hey,

568
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,880
just kind of circling back for those tuning in late,

569
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,799
Art's best bet was Dayton. Steve broke that one down.

570
00:27:19,799 --> 00:27:22,680
If you want to scroll back about four minutes, you

571
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,960
can hear Steve's opinion on that one as well. A

572
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,759
lot of people agreeing Marquette has been kind of a disappointment.

573
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:32,119
I think Wisconsin is trending a little above where I

574
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,599
believe they should be steve to start the season. But

575
00:27:34,599 --> 00:27:36,119
I think this is a good spot for them here

576
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,039
as well. So let's get into some more of this

577
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,640
college football now. The questions are generating. They want to know,

578
00:27:40,799 --> 00:27:43,200
because it's kicking off here in thirty two minutes. What

579
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,480
are your feelings on BYU Texas Tech? Steve, I've got

580
00:27:47,519 --> 00:27:49,559
a Texas Tech ticket twelve to one in my pocket.

581
00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:51,839
I gave it out during bet on It when we

582
00:27:51,839 --> 00:27:54,440
did our college football previews. I said that the team

583
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,839
has spent so much money on anil I like Joey maguire.

584
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,680
I like what we've seen from this team and where

585
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,240
they're headed in the direction, So I feel really smart

586
00:28:02,319 --> 00:28:05,240
right now. But it is really tough to beat a

587
00:28:05,279 --> 00:28:07,759
team twice, and by you could not have played that

588
00:28:07,799 --> 00:28:11,160
first game any worse, correct, And.

589
00:28:11,279 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 4: One thing that jumps out to you is the low

590
00:28:12,759 --> 00:28:15,839
score from the first game, twenty nine to seven. And yes,

591
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,240
you did the math right, that was five field goals

592
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,559
two touchdowns for Texas Tech. In fact, it was a

593
00:28:20,599 --> 00:28:23,920
school record five field goals. Kicker never had five field

594
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,000
goals in a game in Red Raider history. So while

595
00:28:27,039 --> 00:28:28,680
they got to twenty ninety, I guess you can make

596
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,720
the argument by used defense held up pretty good. And

597
00:28:30,799 --> 00:28:34,599
obviously Texas Tech defense was extremely strong in that game,

598
00:28:35,039 --> 00:28:37,759
allowing just seven points. So we do have a rematch.

599
00:28:37,799 --> 00:28:39,440
And by the way, Kelly, we have a rematch in

600
00:28:39,559 --> 00:28:42,759
four of the five games today, which I do love.

601
00:28:42,839 --> 00:28:44,000
And how do you use the remain You know, we

602
00:28:44,039 --> 00:28:45,799
talked about it's tough to beat a team twice, while

603
00:28:45,839 --> 00:28:49,240
use an example from last night that Kenisaal Jacksonville State game.

604
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,680
And by the way, I've done free play videos. I

605
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,960
did the math on this, I did free play videos

606
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,680
for twenty of the twenty three college and pro football

607
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,640
games this week. I don't know what I'm doing. I'm

608
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,559
given two much away for free here on wager Talk TV.

609
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,680
But my point is I did all nine of these games.

610
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,359
I did a Friday video and then I did all

611
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,480
five Saturday games, So be sure to watch that after

612
00:29:08,519 --> 00:29:11,319
the show today for more deep dives into all these games.

613
00:29:11,319 --> 00:29:13,039
And one thing I pointed out on the Friday video

614
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,880
is I liked kennessas State as a small favorite because

615
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,480
they had lost that earlier meeting and it was misleading.

616
00:29:19,519 --> 00:29:21,880
They had a thirty two to nineteen first down edge.

617
00:29:22,119 --> 00:29:23,839
It was like five hundred and some yards, but I

618
00:29:23,839 --> 00:29:26,319
think it was like a three nothing turnover deficit. So

619
00:29:26,359 --> 00:29:28,079
you want to dig into the box scores, and it's

620
00:29:28,119 --> 00:29:30,119
not always well, it's tough to be the team twice.

621
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:31,960
You want to see if there was a misleading box score.

622
00:29:32,319 --> 00:29:34,720
And here again, turnovers are the first thing I look for.

623
00:29:35,039 --> 00:29:38,640
BYU had a three to nothing turnover disadvantage last month

624
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,599
of November eighth when they lost that game twenty nine

625
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,720
to seven. So I do think maybe this is a

626
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,160
spot where we sneak in take the Cougars. You know

627
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,160
I love Cougars BYU Cougars, and this is also a

628
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:50,839
spot where we getting little bit of line value at

629
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,519
thirteen or more because my power rating is my projection

630
00:29:53,599 --> 00:29:56,759
of actually my simulation ten thousand games simulation makes it

631
00:29:56,799 --> 00:29:58,799
twelve and a half a fair line. So at thirteen

632
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,759
or more, I think there's value with B. But as

633
00:30:00,799 --> 00:30:04,119
I checked the Odds Logic screen here minutes before kickoff,

634
00:30:04,119 --> 00:30:07,160
thirty minutes before kickoff, to be exact, it's dropping back

635
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,160
down to twelve and a half. One of the Sharp

636
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,960
Global books is now eleven. That's a buyback. And then

637
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,920
the over under, which was forty it was fifty and

638
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,519
a half forty nine and a half this week when

639
00:30:16,519 --> 00:30:18,880
I did the video, is now back up to fifty

640
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:23,039
and a half. Circa in Vegas, fifty one very key number,

641
00:30:23,079 --> 00:30:25,160
about a three to four percent chance games land on

642
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,960
fifty one. I mentioned in the video I leaned BYU,

643
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,440
and I lean under fifty one or more. I would

644
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,039
definitely start leaning under in this rematch, as I don't

645
00:30:33,079 --> 00:30:35,720
think the misleader. I don't think it was misleading that

646
00:30:35,759 --> 00:30:38,039
both defenses did well a few weeks ago.

647
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: Ooh, Steve, you're right, I'm looking right now, Christmas Tree. Yeah,

648
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,680
one twelve and a half left over here for me.

649
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,000
I took thirteen. I'm going to take some more twelve

650
00:30:50,039 --> 00:30:51,720
and a half. I like BYU in this spot, and again,

651
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,160
I've been high on Texas Tech all season long, regardless

652
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:57,640
of what Twitter thanks, I'm cheering for the Red Raiders

653
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:58,480
to get into the game.

654
00:30:58,599 --> 00:31:00,519
Speaker 4: Kelly, real quick on that. You know, I talk about

655
00:31:00,519 --> 00:31:03,440
my ten thousand games simulation. I also rank each offense

656
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,400
in the defensive unit out of all one hundred and

657
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,559
thirty six teams we're going to get to the Indiana

658
00:31:07,559 --> 00:31:09,440
Ohio State game. I've got them as my top two

659
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,599
teams in the country, my top two defenses, by the

660
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,079
way in the country. But to put in perspective, you know,

661
00:31:14,119 --> 00:31:16,599
it's weird to see Indiana that good. It is weird

662
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,400
to see Texas Tech that good. But this is where

663
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,640
they rank. I've got them as the number two offense,

664
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,599
the number four defense, and the number three team overall.

665
00:31:24,799 --> 00:31:27,559
But I've actually got BYU's the ninth best team overall,

666
00:31:27,839 --> 00:31:30,440
top twenty in both offense and defense. So here again,

667
00:31:30,759 --> 00:31:33,119
I'm not looking to fake Texas Tech, just like you're mentioning,

668
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,519
but I think BYU might be a little underrated and

669
00:31:35,599 --> 00:31:37,039
catching double digits as appealing.

670
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna be really upset when they lose this

671
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:41,720
game and they don't get in the college football playoffs.

672
00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:43,759
But that's kind of why I'm also cheering for Duke

673
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,440
because I'd love to see the ACC get zero teams.

674
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,839
Speaker 4: Like I said, I'd like to see James Madison get

675
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,440
in instead of UVA. Either way of state team's getting.

676
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,839
Speaker 2: In, Yeah, I would agree. I listen. I know a

677
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,720
lot of people like to argue about the game of

678
00:31:55,759 --> 00:31:59,119
five schools, but I do think it It kind of

679
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:00,920
gives you an idea, right, It's like, have you ever

680
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,039
heard of the adage of like during Olympics, it's like, oh,

681
00:32:03,079 --> 00:32:04,920
let's put a normal guy in there and see what

682
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,880
a normal guy does. Like, let's put in a game

683
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,000
of five school and let's see what they could do.

684
00:32:09,039 --> 00:32:11,200
You never know, it's a one game sample says they

685
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,160
could absolutely win a game in the college.

686
00:32:14,279 --> 00:32:16,599
Speaker 4: Well, the better analogy is a thing called the NCAA

687
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,559
Basketball Tournament. So that, well, thank you, yes, enough said

688
00:32:19,599 --> 00:32:22,039
right there, right, we know it works, and we also

689
00:32:22,079 --> 00:32:24,160
know they're getting away from it. There. The SEC got

690
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,279
what twelve of their fourteen teams in last year. And

691
00:32:27,319 --> 00:32:28,960
they've done this, by the way, for a decade, and

692
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,480
you and I have talked about it on shows. I've

693
00:32:30,519 --> 00:32:33,519
made it very public for the past decade. When they

694
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,359
you know St. Mary's of California and another mid major

695
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,640
gets in, they always play in the first round of

696
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,440
the seven to ten game, or they get that eight

697
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,039
to nine seed so they have to play the one

698
00:32:42,079 --> 00:32:44,519
seed the next round. They do all they can for

699
00:32:44,599 --> 00:32:46,720
decades now to keep those teams from even making the

700
00:32:46,759 --> 00:32:49,880
round of sixteen, and now it's become even more blatant.

701
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,480
So yeah, I'm pulling for the little guy in both

702
00:32:51,519 --> 00:32:53,880
college basketball and college football whenever possible.

703
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: Yes, we do love the idea of a Cinderella story.

704
00:32:57,279 --> 00:32:59,039
All right, let's kind of get into some more of

705
00:32:59,079 --> 00:33:02,000
these really quick. Anthony's waiting in the wings to talk

706
00:33:02,039 --> 00:33:04,000
to UFC. So if you guys do have a UFC question,

707
00:33:04,039 --> 00:33:05,720
gohingad and drop in the chat and we will try

708
00:33:05,759 --> 00:33:08,400
to get to it. Rob Christians, I wants to know, Steve,

709
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,960
do you have an opinion on the total in the

710
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:16,160
SEC game. I have a feeling that if I'm a

711
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,519
feeling there's a correlation. If you like Alabama, it's because

712
00:33:18,519 --> 00:33:21,480
Alabama's offense is going to put up points and Georgia's

713
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:23,480
defense isn't going to be able to stop them and

714
00:33:23,559 --> 00:33:26,359
it's going to turn into a pseudo shootout. Or if

715
00:33:26,359 --> 00:33:29,039
you like Georgia, you're gonna like George's defense and they're

716
00:33:29,039 --> 00:33:31,440
going to keep it in a low scoring game. Thought Steve.

717
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, So, as I mentioned, I did all five games

718
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,160
of the standalone video, including this one. I talked about

719
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,119
the total, but I even did a solo video for

720
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,279
this game and the Indiana Ohios taking they're so big,

721
00:33:40,279 --> 00:33:42,039
and I talked about the total there too. So I've

722
00:33:42,039 --> 00:33:43,799
been pretty open this week that I like the over

723
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,759
in this game. And it was around forty seven and

724
00:33:46,759 --> 00:33:48,119
a half when I was doing some of the videos

725
00:33:48,119 --> 00:33:50,279
a few days ago. And we have seen a little

726
00:33:50,279 --> 00:33:52,240
bit of money come in on the over. It's now

727
00:33:52,319 --> 00:33:55,359
up to forty eight. Forty eight is a semi key number.

728
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,720
I'd say two to three percent chance, So once you

729
00:33:57,759 --> 00:33:59,359
get to forty eight and a half, you're probably starting

730
00:33:59,359 --> 00:34:00,799
to lose a little bit of value at that point.

731
00:34:00,839 --> 00:34:02,799
Would have liked forty seven and a half forty eight better,

732
00:34:02,839 --> 00:34:05,960
but mostly forty eights available. It's a little counterintuitive because

733
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,360
here again we have a rematch, this one much earlier

734
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,880
in the season, back of course in September, and it

735
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:15,119
landed forty five, but last year fifty one. Several meetings

736
00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:18,480
before that sixty five sixty five. These two teams have

737
00:34:18,519 --> 00:34:20,920
a high scoring history, and if you look at how

738
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,280
that game played out back in early September, yes, it

739
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,639
landed only forty five points, felt like George's offense kind

740
00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:29,039
of struggled. I also feel like Georgia's offense is better

741
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,199
the past few months, and they are the better team

742
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,719
right now in my rankings. Also, as far as the

743
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,280
side in this game, though, I would lean towards Bama

744
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,079
at three or more. When I did the video it

745
00:34:39,119 --> 00:34:41,559
was two and a half. Those that followed me all

746
00:34:41,599 --> 00:34:43,840
season know this made. It was in my College Football

747
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,320
Top twenty five video way back in September, of course,

748
00:34:46,679 --> 00:34:49,519
and I did call for the Bama upset win based

749
00:34:49,559 --> 00:34:52,639
on my projections. Here again, my ten thousand game simulation

750
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,760
has this one a pick them. I think it's a

751
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,719
dead even toss up. Really no opinion at one and

752
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,320
a half, which is now the current line. When it

753
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:00,639
was two and a half, I said, hey, if you

754
00:35:00,639 --> 00:35:03,559
can get a plus three. Yanni mentioned this earlier. There

755
00:35:03,559 --> 00:35:05,639
were some threes floating around and the sharp scrabbed it.

756
00:35:05,679 --> 00:35:08,360
Not a surprise. Now it's down to one and a half.

757
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,719
I think it's pretty much where it should be. But yeah,

758
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,440
over forty eight would be my play on the total.

759
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Steve, I even have a that has minus one

760
00:35:16,159 --> 00:35:20,599
fifteen right now on the Georgia side of things. All right,

761
00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:22,920
let's kind of see what's going on over here in

762
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:24,679
the comments section. We'll get it into a couple more

763
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:30,559
questions regarding either college football or NFL. Both Ohio State

764
00:35:30,559 --> 00:35:32,280
and Indiana go to the playoffs. So how do you

765
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,559
handy cap this game? That's a really interesting Steve. I've

766
00:35:35,559 --> 00:35:37,559
been in my breakdown on bet on it, I said,

767
00:35:37,559 --> 00:35:43,639
here's the reality. Ohio State had to get that Michigan

768
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,239
like stink off them right, Like it wasn't a monkey

769
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:50,360
on their back. But Ryan Days really struggled with Michigan

770
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,679
as of late. They go in to ann Arbor, they

771
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,480
get a nice win, they get the cover. Well, Indiana

772
00:35:56,559 --> 00:36:00,679
got to play Perdue. I mean, let's be real, Kirk Signette.

773
00:36:00,679 --> 00:36:03,639
He's been preparing for this Big ten championship game for

774
00:36:03,679 --> 00:36:05,679
a couple of weeks. Now, do you think that has

775
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,039
anything to play in on it? Or do you think

776
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,400
I mean, regardless, both these teams are getting in correct.

777
00:36:12,679 --> 00:36:15,119
Speaker 4: Oh yes, yeah, I mean they're both one hundred percent locks.

778
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:17,360
So the only two undefeated teams left in the country

779
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,199
and they're one and two. It's kind of a shame

780
00:36:20,199 --> 00:36:21,920
in my opinion they're playing right now. This would have

781
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,960
been a you know, a fun national title game, perhaps

782
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,559
it undefeated. I'm not a big fan of these conference championships.

783
00:36:27,599 --> 00:36:29,400
I think they muddy things up, but I know that

784
00:36:29,639 --> 00:36:32,159
it's just like the college basketball conference tournaments. They won

785
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,920
them their moneymakers. I would prefer to just see the

786
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,000
regular season carry its own way, maybe even have an

787
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,760
extra game or something. But yeah, I do think it's

788
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,039
a legitimate concern. If you're a highest state, you know,

789
00:36:42,079 --> 00:36:44,639
you always say, well, which team is more focused to you?

790
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,599
There's no question in my mind it's Indiana for some

791
00:36:46,639 --> 00:36:49,280
of the reasons you just mentioned. Plus they're the underdog

792
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,400
in this game. And while I think they're just as good,

793
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,800
maybe better in a lot of metrics this year than

794
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,440
Ohio State, and by the way, I've got the numbers

795
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,400
to back that up. I gave those in deep detail

796
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,639
and both stand alone videos at standalone video and the

797
00:36:59,679 --> 00:37:02,280
top the Saturday five pack that I gave you here.

798
00:37:02,679 --> 00:37:04,280
I'll quickly touch on some of that if you just

799
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,800
look at some raw numbers. This season I mentioned, I've

800
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,920
got Indian Ohio State both top five offensess got them

801
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,679
as the two best defenses in the country, the two

802
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:15,400
best teams overall. Indiana has played a slightly tougher schedule,

803
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:18,039
and by playing a slightly tougher schedule, they have still

804
00:37:18,039 --> 00:37:21,760
outscored their opponents by about thirty three and a half points.

805
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,840
Ohio State's only outscored theirs by about twenty nine. Indiana's

806
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,599
outgained their opponents well. They've gained seven point two yards

807
00:37:28,599 --> 00:37:30,840
per play on offense Ohio State six point nine, and

808
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,440
once again, that's against a slightly tougher schedule, So I

809
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,280
actually think Indiana is the better offensive team where Ohio

810
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,119
State does have the edges. I ranked them as the

811
00:37:38,159 --> 00:37:40,440
better defensive team. They've given up just eight points a

812
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,559
game three point eight yards per play. But as I

813
00:37:43,559 --> 00:37:46,320
said earlier, I've marked Indiana's the second best defense eleven

814
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,519
points a game, four point five yards per play. So

815
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,119
these are two really good teams. And I gotta admit

816
00:37:51,199 --> 00:37:54,639
it's hard for me to picture or imagine Indiana beating

817
00:37:54,639 --> 00:37:57,480
Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. But then

818
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,159
you look at the fact Ohio State, as you said,

819
00:37:59,199 --> 00:38:02,880
is coming off the Ohio the Michigan game, they're defending

820
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:06,320
national champs. Seems like a bigger spot for Indiana. Here

821
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:09,840
my ten thousand game simulation does favor Ohio State. It's

822
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,519
got that defensive edge making the difference, but by just

823
00:38:12,519 --> 00:38:15,159
two and a half points as the simulated result. So

824
00:38:15,159 --> 00:38:17,519
at the current line of plus four four and a half,

825
00:38:17,559 --> 00:38:20,000
there is value with Indiana because we're getting those key

826
00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,800
numbers of three and four working in our favor. I'm

827
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,800
looking forward to watching this game. I hope both teams

828
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,239
bring their a game, but it is a little bit tricky,

829
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,440
you know. By the way, it's in Indianapolis, Indiana Lucas

830
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,159
Oil Stadium. Ohio State is going to travel well, but

831
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:34,480
this is technically a semi home game for Indiana as well.

832
00:38:34,519 --> 00:38:36,119
So there's a lot of reasons to like the Hoosiers.

833
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,840
And I'll leave it with this, So glad Signette's going

834
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,119
to be there for a while. He didn't pull the

835
00:38:40,199 --> 00:38:42,480
lane kiff, and I think it's a brilliant life choice.

836
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:44,679
He can do what he wants for the next decade.

837
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,400
And keep in mind he was the James Madison coach

838
00:38:47,519 --> 00:38:50,559
just two years ago when they got really good, and

839
00:38:50,639 --> 00:38:53,159
now James Madison is still really good. And obviously Indiana

840
00:38:53,199 --> 00:38:55,679
his first season makes the playoffs and now they're perhaps

841
00:38:55,679 --> 00:38:58,239
the best team in the country. Remarkable job what he's

842
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,639
done there in such a short time.

843
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 2: All right, Steve Merril, anything that you have to promote

844
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,280
over on wagertalk dot com before we let you get

845
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:06,719
out of here.

846
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a big day in basketball and football. Five

847
00:39:10,599 --> 00:39:14,159
best bets in college and prohoops and college football. Five

848
00:39:14,199 --> 00:39:17,400
football and basketball best bets right now on my page

849
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,440
at wager talk dot com. And I talked about the

850
00:39:20,519 --> 00:39:24,480
videos I gave you twenty of the twenty three college

851
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,360
and pro football games this week for free. Here you

852
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:27,920
might be a like, well I go to wager Talk,

853
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,800
then well, when I'm giving you twenty free football plays,

854
00:39:31,039 --> 00:39:33,639
most of those are light leans only their TV opinions,

855
00:39:33,639 --> 00:39:35,800
Hey treat them as one percent of bankroll. I give

856
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,440
you analysis for those of you doing your own handicapping.

857
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,960
But if you want my official best bets, the four

858
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,840
percent plays the games I'm actually using, then go to

859
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,519
my page Steve merrillwager Talk dot com. I've got five

860
00:39:46,599 --> 00:39:49,400
strong best bets, two in football, three in basketball, and

861
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,199
then some big NFL best bets tomorrow on Sunday. And

862
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,239
by the way, late last night recorded the NFL Fade

863
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,400
the Public video, which is sixty one and a half

864
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,039
percent for free this season. I've got six six of

865
00:40:01,079 --> 00:40:03,119
the thirteen Sunday games in that video for you. That'll

866
00:40:03,119 --> 00:40:05,800
be up later this afternoon. So check out wager Talk

867
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,199
TV and you don't have to wait, you don't have

868
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,840
to keep checking in. Just click subscribe and click that

869
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,039
bill for an instant alert when the Fade the Public

870
00:40:12,079 --> 00:40:14,480
video is posted. And also, don't forget about that free

871
00:40:14,519 --> 00:40:17,239
play every day on my page Daily free Play Steve

872
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,239
merrillwager Talk dot com. And hey, get there quicker, shortcut,

873
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,679
wt dot buzz, slash sm.

874
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: That's why Steve is the best. I can't wait to

875
00:40:25,039 --> 00:40:28,360
go check out that Fade the Public video because I

876
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,440
really don't like that much this week in the NFL.

877
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,360
Thank you to Steve. That's Steve Merrill there over on X.

878
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,880
You can catch all of his stuff at wt dot

879
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,239
buzzbackslash s in. Let's bring in Kyle Anthony. We have

880
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:44,079
a big UFC card for today. Kyle. We've got fifteen

881
00:40:44,119 --> 00:40:46,639
minutes a little bit longer than that before kickoffs. So

882
00:40:46,639 --> 00:40:53,440
we're gonna take all of your questions regarding Kyle's UFC picks. So, Kyle,

883
00:40:53,519 --> 00:40:55,840
you've got two that you like for yourself. Why let

884
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:01,000
some of these questions populate. Davin Shavili versus on is

885
00:41:01,039 --> 00:41:04,119
your first one? Go ahead and let me know why

886
00:41:04,199 --> 00:41:05,360
you like the big underdog here.

887
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 5: Yes, So in this fight here, we've got Morob de

888
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,000
Wallace Billy he's staying at I'm sorry, minus four fifty

889
00:41:13,039 --> 00:41:15,039
on the comeback. Here we've got Peter Yan he's plus

890
00:41:15,079 --> 00:41:17,880
three to fifty. Now, this is the fight that we've seen.

891
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,079
It was a rematch from the fight back in twenty

892
00:41:20,119 --> 00:41:22,119
twenty three, and it was all Morob.

893
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 6: Rob went out there, he.

894
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:26,119
Speaker 5: Dominated, he was able to outland him, he was able

895
00:41:26,159 --> 00:41:28,719
to get the takedowns, do what Morob normally does do,

896
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,320
and he outlanded him doubling the significant strikes one hundred

897
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,400
and forty seven to seventy five, had eleven takedowns. It

898
00:41:35,519 --> 00:41:37,920
just pretty much dominated the fight from start to finish,

899
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,320
one every single round in that five round contest. Now,

900
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,480
Morob really is just a nightmare matchup for everybody. It's

901
00:41:44,559 --> 00:41:46,719
just kind of what it is at this particular point.

902
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,239
And what he does is really reponizing Matt Cardio. He's

903
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,360
able to push forward with the mix of the wrestling

904
00:41:51,679 --> 00:41:53,679
and it's very tough for opponents to kind of get

905
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,119
into any type of rhythm here, and he is able

906
00:41:56,159 --> 00:41:58,519
to really kind of just keep you working. And even

907
00:41:58,559 --> 00:42:00,960
against Peter Jan the last ten they fought, he shot

908
00:42:01,079 --> 00:42:03,880
forty nine takedowns, which is a UFC record. No one's

909
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:05,840
ever shot that many takedowns in a five round fight.

910
00:42:06,079 --> 00:42:08,239
And the point is it's just he's not if any

911
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,480
if he doesn't get the takedown. He keeps you working,

912
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,119
keeps you draining your Cardio, keeps you being on the

913
00:42:13,119 --> 00:42:15,440
defensive side of it, keep pushing that type of pace,

914
00:42:15,559 --> 00:42:17,960
and he grinds out round after round. And Yan is

915
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,639
a you know, he's a strong, you know fighter overall,

916
00:42:20,679 --> 00:42:23,440
and he's got great counter striking ability and all these

917
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:24,920
great things that he can do on the feet. But

918
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,519
when you look at this contest now, it's you know,

919
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,199
what has changed? You know, that's really the big part

920
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,119
about this is really what has changed in this flight

921
00:42:32,159 --> 00:42:34,400
compared to the last time that they fought because Jan

922
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,360
got dominated and if you're trying to look for value

923
00:42:36,679 --> 00:42:39,639
at plus three point fifty, you know, maybe, you know,

924
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,119
maybe there is that there. But Jan's gonna be on

925
00:42:42,159 --> 00:42:45,159
the back foot this entire fight. He's gonna be able

926
00:42:45,199 --> 00:42:47,760
to try to, you know, get his defense, get his

927
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:48,400
offense going.

928
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 6: He's gonna try to do that. But Morab is.

929
00:42:50,679 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 5: Just the guy that's gonna come forward. He's gonna crash

930
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,960
the pocket. Yan is a slow starter consistently throughout his career,

931
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:58,480
and that's really where Morab, I think, is going to

932
00:42:58,519 --> 00:43:00,159
pick up the pace early. He's gonna be able to

933
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:02,800
really get his offense going. You know, when you're gonna

934
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,159
have Yan who's gonna really be, you know, kind of

935
00:43:05,199 --> 00:43:07,800
on the defensive not being able to get his offense going.

936
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:10,400
So this is a spot here where I think there's

937
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,519
going to be multiple times throughout this five rounds fight

938
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,679
that Morob can find a finish here, and you also

939
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,880
look at it as that you know, yes, Morob is

940
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,119
you know, he's definitely kind of played more towards the

941
00:43:21,559 --> 00:43:23,719
you know, winning by decision. You've got decision here sitting

942
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,599
at like minus two thirty minus to forty and some

943
00:43:26,679 --> 00:43:29,079
books there, and it's a high probability that's gonna happen.

944
00:43:29,079 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 6: He could just wet blanket him.

945
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,320
Speaker 5: For five rounds, but there is gonna be opportunities here

946
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:37,039
for him. Sitting at plus four forty from Morob inside

947
00:43:37,039 --> 00:43:40,360
the distance, I think is absolutely worth a sprinkle here.

948
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 6: I think there's value on that number.

949
00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:44,519
Speaker 5: Again, he's probably gonna wet blanket him for five rounds,

950
00:43:44,519 --> 00:43:47,320
but I think that Morob openly has said also.

951
00:43:47,079 --> 00:43:48,679
Speaker 6: In interviews, I want to get this finished.

952
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,280
Speaker 5: Not that we bet what interviews are being said, but

953
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,559
I think the path is there. So give me Rob

954
00:43:53,679 --> 00:43:56,039
inside the distance at plus four forty.

955
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 2: All right, Cale, We're gonna take a couple of questions

956
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,480
from the chat before we get into the second game

957
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:06,840
or second game. Second, let go over after everybody has

958
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,320
to remember it's Saturday morning and my brain is still

959
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,280
glued to football and college basketball. For the show, Kyle,

960
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:14,199
we have two questions we're gonna get answered, But first

961
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,119
I want you to talk about your hero Parlay. I

962
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,360
just happened to catch that before the show over on Twitter.

963
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,519
Speaker 5: Yes, so I do have it up right now. You

964
00:44:22,599 --> 00:44:24,119
got to check it out. I'm gonna post it on

965
00:44:24,159 --> 00:44:26,480
my page. We've got it up at wager talk dot

966
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:27,320
com already.

967
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:27,599
Speaker 1: Here.

968
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 6: One of them real quickly.

969
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 5: I do have is Peyton Talbot inside the distance over

970
00:44:34,159 --> 00:44:37,920
Henry Suhudo, and that's like plus two point fifty.

971
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 1: I like that.

972
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 5: Here you've got Henry coming in on his basically his

973
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,360
retire it is his retirement fight. He's coming in on

974
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,239
career worst shape. I think this is Peyton Talbot's time.

975
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:49,159
So I do like that spot to hit. I think

976
00:44:49,199 --> 00:44:50,519
it's a smash spot for him.

977
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 4: So I like that.

978
00:44:51,519 --> 00:44:53,199
Speaker 6: That's that's one like rest of them. Check him out

979
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:53,719
Wage of Talk.

980
00:44:54,599 --> 00:44:56,760
Speaker 2: Awesome. Let's get answered a couple of these questions before

981
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:58,840
we get into your second fight. The first one, Kyle,

982
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:02,440
what do you think about Tiara and Moreno? I had

983
00:45:02,519 --> 00:45:04,559
VR kind of touch on this one as well, and

984
00:45:04,679 --> 00:45:07,800
hit synopsis was interesting. I'm curious to see if you agree.

985
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:12,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, Tyra, is that next generation. Also, you know,

986
00:45:12,679 --> 00:45:13,840
it's twenty five years old.

987
00:45:14,119 --> 00:45:15,159
Speaker 6: He's fantastic.

988
00:45:15,159 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 5: We're talking about his grappling ability, his ability to kind

989
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:19,719
of push that pace, stay in your face. And you know,

990
00:45:20,039 --> 00:45:22,960
the issue here for me on Moreno side is that, yes,

991
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,840
he's on a two fight win streak, Yes he's a

992
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,480
recognizable name, Yes he's the former champion and all those things.

993
00:45:28,519 --> 00:45:32,199
But it's where and tear has really started to kind

994
00:45:32,199 --> 00:45:34,360
of appear for him here where you know he has

995
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,800
had and I think even VR touchdown a little bit

996
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:40,840
where it's just he's had just absolute wars and absolute battles.

997
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:42,679
He's come out on the end of them and sometimes

998
00:45:42,679 --> 00:45:45,119
he hasn't. But I think that the MMA Miles is

999
00:45:45,199 --> 00:45:47,079
really high here and this feels like one of those

1000
00:45:47,079 --> 00:45:49,199
things where it's kind of like changing of the guard

1001
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:50,800
a little bit here where you've got a guy that's

1002
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:52,960
kind of, you know, heading towards the end. Again, Moreno's

1003
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,719
only like thirty or thirty three wherever he is, but

1004
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:57,840
it's just a lot to take in. Plus, if this

1005
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,679
was a five round fight, I would definitely lean more

1006
00:46:00,679 --> 00:46:03,559
towards Moreno because Reno builds in fights as the fight's

1007
00:46:03,559 --> 00:46:03,920
going on.

1008
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,119
Speaker 6: He just is a dog out there. He's going to

1009
00:46:06,159 --> 00:46:07,920
push for He's going to continue to push forward.

1010
00:46:08,199 --> 00:46:10,800
Speaker 5: And we've seen even in a recent fight where Tyra

1011
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,480
can slow down later in the fourth round, the fifth round,

1012
00:46:13,559 --> 00:46:15,000
he can start to slow down. This is a three

1013
00:46:15,079 --> 00:46:17,840
round fight. I think it really plays the advantage for

1014
00:46:18,079 --> 00:46:20,639
Tyra here. So you know, minus one twenty minus one

1015
00:46:20,679 --> 00:46:22,360
twenty five, I think is a strong number and I

1016
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,599
think he could well outperform that in this spot here.

1017
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's take another question before we get to

1018
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:29,880
your last fight. What do you think about the Duncan

1019
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:34,360
fight line? Move Kyle clv trop the week goes to you.

1020
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,480
I'm guessing you bet this one a little bit earlier

1021
00:46:37,519 --> 00:46:38,599
than the rest of the market.

1022
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I definitely had McKinney in this spot here,

1023
00:46:42,519 --> 00:46:43,760
and you know that you have.

1024
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 6: I think Duncan was like minus one eighty.

1025
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,159
Speaker 5: Now he's down to like a pick em, and you know,

1026
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,320
it's it's I mean, I don't know if Duncan's coming

1027
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:54,239
in with one leg or something like that, but it's

1028
00:46:54,679 --> 00:46:57,800
an interesting situation here because I thought this line was

1029
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:59,920
crazy to begin with, you know, and I talked about

1030
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:02,480
it my podcast. It is it just seemed nuts. You know,

1031
00:47:02,519 --> 00:47:04,280
it seemed like this is a car crash. Both these

1032
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,079
guys are going to come forward. Both these guys are

1033
00:47:06,079 --> 00:47:09,239
gonna throw you know. You know you got Duncan who's

1034
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:11,679
kind of like a punching bag. He's willing to come forward.

1035
00:47:11,679 --> 00:47:14,159
He blocks punches with his face. McKinney is a very

1036
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,039
very hard hitter. And you look at it statistically, I meant,

1037
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:21,920
out of McKinney's seventeen victories, all of them come inside

1038
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:25,239
the distance. And even with duncan fourteen victories, ten come

1039
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,159
inside the distance. So I actually do like McKinnie here

1040
00:47:28,159 --> 00:47:30,199
to get the job done, but to even get a

1041
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,280
little bit more on top of it. Here, which I

1042
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:35,360
think is a great spot is McKinny by knockout inside

1043
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,280
the first two rounds. That's sitting around plus three ten,

1044
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:40,719
and I like that spot here. Again, I think these

1045
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,800
guys are going to trade. I don't think that mckinnie's

1046
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,920
gonna look for any type of takedowns because we've seen Duncan.

1047
00:47:46,079 --> 00:47:47,960
He's been able to you know, snatch up the neck,

1048
00:47:48,039 --> 00:47:50,239
find a submission. Here, I think it's going to play

1049
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:51,800
out on the feet. I think it plays to the

1050
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:54,719
advantage of McKinny, and I think the knockout the knoo

1051
00:47:54,760 --> 00:47:56,320
could come in that first round, which you could give

1052
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:57,800
you a little bit more here, but I'm willing to

1053
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,760
take the extra round there. And I think plus three

1054
00:48:01,119 --> 00:48:03,360
three ten is a strong, strong number here overall.

1055
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 2: All right, we got about twelve minutes until kickoff. We're

1056
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,400
going to take you guys here up in to it

1057
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:10,920
really quickly. I got to tell you guys about what

1058
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,760
we've got going on over at wager talk dot com.

1059
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,519
Of course, we've got those flex picks right now. You

1060
00:48:17,559 --> 00:48:19,360
guys are gonna get twenty five percent off Flex picks

1061
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,119
using coupon code flex twenty five. And of course you

1062
00:48:22,119 --> 00:48:25,199
can add Kyle to your rotation of handicappers that you want.

1063
00:48:25,519 --> 00:48:27,800
Say that you like Steve Merrill on a Friday and

1064
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,639
you want Kyle's UFC card on a Saturday. Guess one, guys,

1065
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:34,000
that is how it works. Pick your handicapper change at

1066
00:48:34,039 --> 00:48:35,039
any time.

1067
00:48:35,519 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 1: Kyle.

1068
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:39,079
Speaker 2: Let's get into this second fight that you want to

1069
00:48:39,119 --> 00:48:43,559
talk about here, Pantoha versus van Another. I feel like

1070
00:48:43,559 --> 00:48:45,079
you just always give me plus money on the show,

1071
00:48:45,079 --> 00:48:47,360
because you know that that is what I'm always looking for.

1072
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,239
Another little plus money bet right here for our audience.

1073
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,880
Speaker 5: Yes, we've got Pantosia here, he's at a minus two

1074
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,519
thirty five and the comeback here, we've got Joshua Van

1075
00:48:56,599 --> 00:49:00,000
he is plus one ninety and you've got Pantosia here.

1076
00:49:00,159 --> 00:49:02,679
He is one of the goats of the flyweight division.

1077
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:06,039
He's on an eight fight win streak, fourth fourth title

1078
00:49:06,039 --> 00:49:09,280
fight defenses. This will be his fifth title fight defense,

1079
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:12,400
and at thirty five. Normally at these weight classes, you know,

1080
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,360
the shelf life is smaller. You know, as you get

1081
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,119
into the larger weight classes, you definitely can laught a

1082
00:49:17,119 --> 00:49:17,920
little bit longer.

1083
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 6: But what Pantosia has done is he looked.

1084
00:49:20,519 --> 00:49:23,159
Speaker 5: Better and better, which is pretty scary for the guys

1085
00:49:23,159 --> 00:49:25,039
in the division at this point here where he's getting

1086
00:49:25,119 --> 00:49:27,280
I think his skill set's getting better. I think physically

1087
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,000
he's looking better, and he just has a lot of

1088
00:49:29,079 --> 00:49:31,840
advantages over opponents and a lot of times that you know,

1089
00:49:32,199 --> 00:49:34,039
we look at Pantosia, we say, hey, you know, he's

1090
00:49:34,039 --> 00:49:36,199
a grappler. He can submit you, and those are the

1091
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:37,840
things that he can do. But he is a very

1092
00:49:38,119 --> 00:49:41,800
very well well rounded fighter overall. He's got good striking

1093
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,079
he's got power in his hands. He can move forward

1094
00:49:44,119 --> 00:49:46,119
and he's going to look to craft a pocket, throw

1095
00:49:46,159 --> 00:49:48,920
big shots. And what he does really, really well is

1096
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:50,920
once you're comfortable on the feet, once you think you're

1097
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,119
starting to strike with him, he has very well time

1098
00:49:53,199 --> 00:49:56,039
takedowns behind these combinations and he's able to find you know,

1099
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,719
you know, security with that and then look for the submission.

1100
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,239
Keep you on the ground. Ain't the round, however, he

1101
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:03,519
does do that, and he just has a versatile attack.

1102
00:50:03,599 --> 00:50:05,239
And you know, if you've got Van, I am very

1103
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,280
high on Van. I think Van is a absolutely great fighter.

1104
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,519
He's twenty four years old in this spot, and you know,

1105
00:50:11,559 --> 00:50:14,840
he's got great boxing, he's got great you know, volume,

1106
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:16,880
good cardio, a lot of things you want to see.

1107
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,639
The issue for me here is the fact that you know,

1108
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:23,079
he's just young in the sport. And he has said openly,

1109
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,400
you know, in multiple interviews in the past that he

1110
00:50:25,519 --> 00:50:29,320
started doing you know, really training wrestling in twenty twenty three,

1111
00:50:29,679 --> 00:50:32,159
you know, and that's not many years that he's really

1112
00:50:32,159 --> 00:50:34,320
been able to really focus on that. Now you're heading

1113
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,199
against one of the you know, all time greats in

1114
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,960
the division in Alejandra Pantosia where he's going to look

1115
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,039
for those takedowns. He's gonna look to smother it. And

1116
00:50:41,079 --> 00:50:43,920
I just think that, you know, Van's just too raw.

1117
00:50:44,119 --> 00:50:46,400
I think it's too much too soon for him, you know,

1118
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:48,800
win or lose tonight. I think he still will get

1119
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:51,559
back to a title shot at some point because very

1120
00:50:51,599 --> 00:50:53,199
young has the skill set.

1121
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:54,760
Speaker 6: I just think he needs to build up a little

1122
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:55,119
bit more.

1123
00:50:55,159 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 5: But the issue for me here is the fact that

1124
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,719
you know, yes, Pantosia, you know is has got the

1125
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:02,119
strong I think Van definitely might have a little bit

1126
00:51:02,159 --> 00:51:06,119
of an advantage there, but lesser fighters have taken down

1127
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,039
Joshua Van and yes, Ban has won some of those fights,

1128
00:51:09,039 --> 00:51:10,000
but they've taken him down.

1129
00:51:10,039 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 6: And you know, Ray s Ruja took him.

1130
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 5: Down four times, Cody Durden twice, Philip Bunyez twice. I mean,

1131
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,159
if these guys are able to do it, I think

1132
00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:20,119
Pantosia can do it at a much higher clip and

1133
00:51:20,159 --> 00:51:21,679
be able to find that finish and you kind of

1134
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,800
stick to what he's doing here. And you know, Pantoja,

1135
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,320
out of his last five fights, twenty nine takedowns, so

1136
00:51:26,639 --> 00:51:28,840
he's been able to find that path and even his

1137
00:51:28,960 --> 00:51:31,519
most recent fight against kai Kara Franz, which is a

1138
00:51:31,519 --> 00:51:33,440
fight that a lot of people kind of thought, hey,

1139
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,440
this is a great, great style to beat Pantoja.

1140
00:51:36,519 --> 00:51:37,599
Speaker 6: Where you have kai Kara.

1141
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 5: Franz had an eighty three percent take down defense rate

1142
00:51:39,880 --> 00:51:42,000
and also has got great boxing. That's kind of what

1143
00:51:42,079 --> 00:51:45,280
we're talking about here against Joshua Van where has great

1144
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:47,880
takedown defense and has good boxing. And in that spot

1145
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:50,719
against KaiA Kara Franz, Pantoja had three takedowns, got a

1146
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,920
submission early, and that was that. So I kind of

1147
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,440
look at that as a very much similar situation here.

1148
00:51:55,639 --> 00:51:58,039
I do like Pantosa to get the job done inside

1149
00:51:58,039 --> 00:52:00,519
the distance here getting off the minus two thirty five number,

1150
00:52:00,639 --> 00:52:02,960
it's stinn around plus one twenty. I think that's a

1151
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:06,440
great spot for a five rounder. Pantosha goes forward, he

1152
00:52:06,559 --> 00:52:09,719
moves forward, he is ultra aggressive, and he's not someone

1153
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,800
like you know, Morav Obviously it's a little more positional here.

1154
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,960
He's gonna look for the finish show. I think Pantosha

1155
00:52:15,039 --> 00:52:17,679
gets a job, gets the job done, keeps the title,

1156
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,199
and plus one twenty I think is a solid number.

1157
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,199
Speaker 2: All Right, we've got two more questions in the chat

1158
00:52:22,199 --> 00:52:23,920
before we get out of here. If you guys haven't yet,

1159
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,199
there's almost four thousand to be watching live, please hit

1160
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:28,920
that like button. If you guys are not already subscribed

1161
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:30,760
to the Wager Talking YouTube channel, please do so now.

1162
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,679
And of course, if you're interested in becoming an insider

1163
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:36,480
and getting early access to all things wager Talk, wt Dot, Buzz,

1164
00:52:36,599 --> 00:52:43,360
Backslash insiders. All right, another hard one, barn yus.

1165
00:52:45,039 --> 00:52:45,760
Speaker 6: I wu verse.

1166
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:49,119
Speaker 5: It's ioua versus ibo, But I do I think I

1167
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:52,480
wu here, which you know, I do have him in

1168
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,119
something else, But I think he wins this fight here.

1169
00:52:55,159 --> 00:52:57,559
This is another fight that's gonna be an absolute car crash,

1170
00:52:57,599 --> 00:53:00,639
both guys coming forward. I think I will buy knockout

1171
00:53:01,119 --> 00:53:03,079
is a nice spot here. I think all of his

1172
00:53:03,159 --> 00:53:05,920
finishes I believe have been in the first round. And

1173
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,119
now he's going to make a spot here against a

1174
00:53:08,159 --> 00:53:10,599
guy who's willing to come forward and throw. I think

1175
00:53:10,639 --> 00:53:13,119
I will knock him out early. I like that first

1176
00:53:13,199 --> 00:53:14,079
round knockout there.

1177
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,760
Speaker 2: All right, Last question, does Kyle like Ferris Ziam tonight?

1178
00:53:20,639 --> 00:53:21,559
Speaker 1: I actually do.

1179
00:53:22,159 --> 00:53:24,079
Speaker 5: I think that he gets a job done here. This

1180
00:53:24,119 --> 00:53:26,119
is another one where the line movement moved. We bet

1181
00:53:26,199 --> 00:53:28,679
him at about minus one thirty, he's sitting around minus

1182
00:53:28,679 --> 00:53:31,239
one sixty five one seventy, And I think that this

1183
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:32,440
is a spot here where in the.

1184
00:53:32,519 --> 00:53:35,679
Speaker 6: Seam is he's a good fighter. I think he's got ability.

1185
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,679
Speaker 5: But every fight that he's basically won, he was losing

1186
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,800
outright and then came back and had some spectacular finish.

1187
00:53:42,079 --> 00:53:44,800
And I think that Ziem is just very clean in

1188
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:48,239
the pocket, far more technical, far more cleaner, and I

1189
00:53:48,280 --> 00:53:49,719
think he can he can kind of keep it at

1190
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,360
range or look for takedowns here.

1191
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 6: So I definitely think Zion gets a job done.

1192
00:53:54,679 --> 00:53:57,639
Speaker 2: All right, Kyle Anthony wager Talk dot com at Kyle

1193
00:53:57,679 --> 00:54:01,719
Anthony UFC there on social media, Kyle, anything you would

1194
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:03,440
like to add before we get out of here.

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00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:07,599
Speaker 5: No last thing is check out my page at waitretalk

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00:54:07,639 --> 00:54:08,199
dot com.

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00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 6: I have seven plays for this weekend. I normally do not.

1198
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,199
Speaker 5: I normally have got about four maybe five four in

1199
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,920
in that range, and this year I pretty much stuck

1200
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:19,840
to that. About two events ago I had a ton

1201
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,360
of plays that I did love. We cash fourteen units

1202
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,119
for clients that night. I feel the same vibes here.

1203
00:54:25,199 --> 00:54:27,360
I love a lot of spots here. Great from a

1204
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:31,639
entertainment perspective as well as a betting perspective, So check

1205
00:54:31,679 --> 00:54:34,079
it out waitrotalk dot com and let's get the job

1206
00:54:34,119 --> 00:54:36,480
done on the last pay per view of twenty twenty five.

1207
00:54:37,079 --> 00:54:39,760
Speaker 2: Love to see it, Kyle, Thank you for hanging out

1208
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:42,000
with us here and answering all the audiences questions again.

1209
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:45,360
Head over to Kyle's page wut dot buzz backslash Ka

1210
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:48,840
you guys can see his hero parlay over on x

1211
00:54:49,079 --> 00:54:51,760
as well. All right, guys, we're gonna get out of here.

1212
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,039
We got about five minutes until kickoff. Good luck on

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00:54:54,119 --> 00:54:58,079
your wagers today, Aerlepstin. I'll be back tomorrow with Yanni

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00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,400
the Greek Jesse Rule from wager talk dot com and

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00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,320
John Murray from the Westgate Superbook