Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody?
Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new,
we always start this show by being transparent. Yesterday, good day,
two and oh day much needed two and o day
aces team total under eighty two and a half or
eighty one and a half. Whatever you got was a winner.
And then I had the full game under one fifty
nine and a half.
Speaker 1: So love that.
Speaker 2: Try to keep that going here today, Raveno, how was
everything for you yesterday? How are you doing today?
Speaker 3: I'm good today, Ski. Yesterday was a nothing day for
me because I didn't play. I found out a little
too late that Tiffany Hayes was going to be in
the starting line up. Otherwise I would have played, and
I probably would have lost with plus five on Golden State.
But luckily for me, I didn't see it until late,
didn't get there. So we're gonna start tonight. We got
three games. See what we can do with these. I
kind of like a couple of these, so see if
we can get paid here.
Speaker 1: Let's do it three games. We'll go on rotation order.
We always do that.
Speaker 2: Means first up, it's six thirteen, six fourteen, Dream and
Sky opened up minus nine and a half for Atlanta
on the road. Now up, I'm seeing pretty much eleven's
a couple ten and a half total open one fifty
eight and a half, and it's its highest one sixty
one and a half depending where you shop, a lot
of different numbers out there for Atlanta. Ryan Howard out,
Grinder out, Maya Caldwell out.
Speaker 1: So there.
Speaker 2: I mean, it looks like more players than usual, and
I don't necessarily think Grinder is that big of a
deal anymore, but few players out for Atlanta. For Chicago,
no Angel Reese, but Aero Akins game time. I'm pretty
sure I saw her a shoot around or a tweet
that says she participated in shoot around. Hayley van Lytt
and Onion Wherry are probable. Atlanta has been playing really
will you know? I'll say this, If you think Atlanta's
gonna win, like majority of their wins, they've been hitting
eighty five points.
Speaker 1: I know that at least.
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure what the team total we're looking
at for today, but maybe that's an option if you
think they're going to score. But I'm curious, how are
you looking at this game today?
Speaker 3: Well, that's exactly how I looked at it. At first,
I looked at it as a full game over. The
game time decision on Ariel Atkins kind of pushed me
off a little bit. Then I did see the footage
of her at practice or at shoot around this morning,
So we're kind of in between here, depending upon what
you read. The team is going to be cautious with her.
Maybe the team does start her, not really sure. So
I thought the dependable thing here was the Atlanta offense.
The total team total is eighty five and a half
at this point in time. Like you say, they've been
scoring like crazy. I think it's eighty eight plus and
five of their last six, So you gotta like it
even without Maya called well, even without Britney Grinder. You know,
the one thing about grinder Ski which led me the
full game over at the beginning of this handicap is
that it's a little less shot blocking or rim protection there.
And perhaps Chicago with Cardozo, with Elizabeth Williams, they did
a good job last game against Washington, maybe could do
the same here and helped Chicago score points. But the
Chicago defense is something I like to fade at this
point in time. And the other day Atlanta got off
to a twelve point first quarter and wound up scoring
ninety nine. They scored eighty seven points in three quarters.
The offense has just been that good. It looks like
they'll probably go with pow Power in the starting lineup here, which,
like I said, it shortens them up and maybe makes
them a little weaker defensively, but certainly not offensively. So
where I stand on this game, as I played, the
Atlanta team total over eighty five and a half, and
I'm still I may go back in and play the
full game because if Fariol Atkins is in, it's a
it's probably a better than one sixty and a half
final score here.
Speaker 4: So that that's the way I'm looking at this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this one is.
Speaker 2: This one's a little tough for me. You know, the
sky before the previous game, they did fire the coach, right,
and we always talk about that, you know, every sport,
it doesn't even matter when the team fires the coach,
we or when the organization fires a coach. You see
the team and the players step up. I'm just curious
if they can keep that going here for another night,
if they can contribute. I'm not into lane in eleven
with Atlanta I'll tell you that, especially on the road.
So from a side perspective, I'm only trying to find
reasons to back Chicago. I'm not sure if that magic
will continue, but they're there. I think everybody will play
except for Angel Reese, and that's a little healthier than
they have been. We'll move it over to the next game.
How about that? That looks like in Mercury and I
have a little bit more opinions I think on this
game opened up minus six for Phoenix and it's come
down pretty much to three and a half everywhere total
open one seventy and a half and it looks like
it's up as high as one seventy.
Speaker 1: Three injury report. So we did have a trade.
Speaker 4: J C.
Speaker 2: Sheldon was traded from the Sun to the Mystics for
Eliah Edwards and I'm i mean Leah Ewards listed as Yeah,
I'm pretty sure she's not gonna play. She just got
traded there today. Bria Hartley was downgraded yesterday to questionable
with an illness, and she still listed as questionable right now.
As far as the I'm looking at the wrong game.
If you know, you just let me go on to
the wrong one.
Speaker 3: I'm just running.
Speaker 4: If we're starting to trend here with skipping.
Speaker 3: Games, because we did it the other day too, we
skipped ahead.
Speaker 1: You know what it is. It's a it's my bad.
Speaker 2: But usually this is in order as well, and this
one was not in order. So that's my baut on
that it's only Caitlin Clark out for this game. So
I'm gonna just pass it to you Rob, you know,
since I didn't even know what game we were talking about.
Speaker 3: We got Indiana still on the road ski at Phoenix here.
Phoenix did get that sixteen point win the other day
against Connecticut. You could treat it two different ways. I mean,
they did hold Connecticut the six points in the first quarter,
Phoenix did. They got out to the big start, a
huge lead, and some might say they took their foot
off the gas and just coasted the rest of the way.
But they did get out scored by the Sun the
final three quarters sixteen to fifty eight, and they barely
covered that number, right, I think they were laying fifteen.
They won by sixteen. I know they covered, but it
was really really close, and it probably shouldn't have been close.
Speaker 4: Too. Sobbily came back.
Speaker 3: And played a really good game looks like all things
have been mended there and no problem. And Alyssa Thomas
I believe had a triple double in that game, if
I'm not mistaken. So the front line was really really good.
It's a good matchup against Indiana here. Indiana's defense has
been shredded as of late, but their offense has been amazing,
to say the least. Of course, when you play La
you should look amazing. I think that had four turnovers
ski in that game. The Indiana Fever assists. The turnover
ratio was the best there's been in the WNBA this
year for a single game. I think it was like
five point two something assists to turnovers. So they're playing
really well offensively giving it up defensively. It just seems
like it should be an over in this contest. A
lot of money on the Fever. That was my initial
look because I don't like the Like I say, even
know Phoenix won by sixteen last game, I just don't
like the way they closed it out the final three quarters.
We'll see maybe they did just let off the gas
and they'll take this one a little more serious against Indiana.
But I feel like Indiana is probably a bit more
desperate as far as needing a win is concerned. Had
their five game win streak broken the other night, haven't
played it yet, I would probably look. I think the
value in Indiana's gone. Let me put it that way.
I don't think I want plus three and a half anymore.
If he got six, if you got five, he did
a good job. But I still could be talked into
playing over one seventy two and a half year because
Indiana's defense just hasn't really been good at all.
Speaker 1: And that's all they talked about.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, I've heard them say the same thing,
but after games like they they just had.
Speaker 1: I think it was Natasha Howard who was talking about it.
Speaker 2: She said, you know, the defense starts everything if they're
not getting the stops and they're not going to be
able to do the things that they do on offense,
pretty much saying everything starts on defense. And after you
give up one hundred points, you know, you don't got
to be a rocket science tist to know that should
be the focus in the next game. At least that's
how I think about it. For the Mercury, I mean,
let me go to their schedule really quick. They played
the fever, gave up one oh seven, even though they
scored one on one, they gave up one oh seven
and lost. Then they went the next game and gave
up ninety five to Atlanta and got blown out and lost.
And in that next game they played Chicago, which Chicago's
not the best, but it was the second half of
that game where they really ramped up the defense and
started to run away with it and play better. And
I remember it was the coach and it was a
list of Thomas talking about the defense for the Mercury
and how that's what you know flipped and that's where
they need to focus to get back on track. They
followed that up, holding Connecticut to sixty six points. I
see two teams from on defense. I don't agree with
the over in this game. I think it's more of
an undergame. Anything else you want to say before, I
want to talk about the side a little bit.
Speaker 1: But total wise, real.
Speaker 3: Quick, ski, I'm the total. Indiana's last eight games, the
closing line has been off by twelve points or more.
Either way over or under, the closing line has been
off by twelve points are more in seven.
Speaker 4: Of their last eight.
Speaker 3: Either with these recent numbers, either you're going to see
a game that's easily under or a game that gets
easily over, whichever way you like you should play. But
these Indiana totals have not come close. The eighth game,
the only one that hasn't had a total closing total
miss by at least twelve was a game against the
Dallas here where it missed by nine and a half,
almost double digits, in eighth straight. So totals have not
been close in Indiana games to the to the over
or to the It's an interesting it's an interesting thing
with Indiana. And I just want to get back real
quick to what you said about Wow. I mean, give
me one second, yere, because I'm just going back through
my data results here, and if you take Indiana games
back seven eight more, you're going to find that fourteen
of their last sixteen closing totals have missed the number
by at least ten and a half points. That's crazy
double digits. Their totals are never close. It's either over
or under by a wide margin. So keep that in mind.
Whichever way you like tonight, play it. That way you
probably get to get a good result. And real quick
back to what you were saying, about Natasha. How we're
talking about defense. Sophie Cunningham started that talk like about
a month ago. We need to be in better position,
we need to do this, we need to do that,
and they've just been so up and down like a
yo yo.
Speaker 4: So we'll see.
Speaker 3: I don't know. It's like when we talk about the
Aces and their defense, are we going to see it
or are we not going to see? Indiana's kind of
that team.
Speaker 1: And I'm thinking about it a little further.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess I could look right here and
it would help me just the head up record, but
standings wise, I mean, things are starting to get a
little bit closer, right. I mean, I'm looking at these
two teams eighteen and eleven verse seventeen and thirteen. Fever
did beat them last game. I mean, I think this
is a pretty important game. It's kind of what I'm
trying to get at, just like I thought the game
yesterday was a pretty important game.
Speaker 1: This is also for the Fever. What they're fourth straight
game on the road.
Speaker 2: Maybe a little bit of travel fatigue for them. All
right on that note, Yes, I think it's an under game,
but I think it's a spot that favorites the Mercury.
Like I said, Fever traveling four straight games, it's a
revenge game for the Mercury. They're coming off back to
back blowout wins. They're playing a little bit better. Granted,
you know they're against lesser teams, but they're getting back
into a rhythm and this is an important game at
the house. I feel like it's getting too close to
a pick them here, Rob. You know at this point
is a one way ticket as Phoenix or nothing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't disagree with that Ski at all. Like
you say, it is an important game and more. I
guess you could make a case for both sides of
the importance. Indiana's got the worst record, but Phoenix, as
you mentioned, wants to make sure that they win for
the season series end of it, so big game. Maybe
Phoenix was saving a little something those last three quarters
against Connecticut might have coasted looking forward to this. The
good news for them, like I said at the start
of this, is that Soaboly came back and played really well,
and Phoenix needs that. When that front line is playing
the way they did Sobbly and Thomas combined, they're pretty
tough to stop. They sometimes make three, sometimes don't, but
when they do, they're almost impossible to stop. So yeah,
fourth road game for Indiana, I could see Phoenix at
this point, I wonder. I guess most people just thought
six was too much for Phoenix to late to push
it down two and a half points, because it seems
like a really drastic move with no injury situation in
this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I uh, I think everybody just best the fever
all the time. Honestly, that's kind of just kind of
what I think. And you never really see the fever
plus six, you know, So I think people saw that
number and just jumped on it, really, But we'll see
how it shakes out. I'm thinking either Mercury or under
maybe both. Last game on a slate six seventeen six eighteen,
Connecticut and Los Angeles opened up eleven and a half
for LA down to nine and a half now total,
not that big of a move, but open one seventy
four and a half looking like one seventy five or
one seventy five and a half. Like I said, the
injury report, J C. Sheldon got traded away from Connecticut.
Lee Edwards probably not going to be playing there. That's
who they got back from the trade and Bria Hartley
yesterday was downgraded to questionable with an illness yesterday morning.
I think it was about around this time or a
little bit before we started the show. So we'll see
if she's gotten any better and she's able to play,
but we don't know just yet, Raveno. These teams have
played twice so far this season. One was a four
point win for LA that was a Connecticut cover and
the other one was a fifteen point win for the Sparks.
And I'm unsure if Connecticut covered that game or not, but.
Speaker 1: There was some.
Speaker 2: There was how do I call it? Remember the clip
I sent you, Ravino, a little bit.
Speaker 1: Of Oh, I guess Kia Jackson, Yes, yeah.
Speaker 2: But Bria she's questionable to so we don't know if
she's going to be out there. But I'm gonna just
start off and say her point prop was it was
eight and a half last hour. Looked when she plays,
I mean, she's hit that six of her last eight games.
I believe she's hitted both times versus Sparks. We know
how bad Sparks defense is. That's the first game that
comes to my mind, at least, how are you looking.
Speaker 1: At this game?
Speaker 3: Robno, I think if I just talked from side perspective,
for Ski, I was a little surprised. Maybe you shouldn't
be surprised because LA doesn't play enough defense to give
anybody eleven points. But after watching Golden State lose last night,
this game becomes huge for Los Angeles. If they win,
they're in a tie for that final playoff spot with
Golden State, and they have a game the very next
game after this one is against Golden State. So if
they could beat Connecticut tonight and then beat Golden State
next game, they're in. They're locked in and not locked in,
but they would be in the eighth position. It'd come
a long way to get into playoff position at this
point in time, or at least in a spot where
they have an opportunity to make the playoff. So I
think LA's gonna play because for me, at first, Glan Ski,
it was no brainer. They'll probably score ninety five points
against Connecticut.
Speaker 4: I saw J. C.
Speaker 3: Sheldon get traded. I'm like, well, it's even more of
a no brainer because their backcourt defense basically is J. C.
Sheldon Bria Hartley's hurt or excuse me, bea Hartley's sick,
possibly less backcourt defense, the way LA pushes the ball
up the floor like we saw against Indiana the other night,
gonna be a zillion opportunities. I think you said earlier
that they've played two overs already where full game is concerned.
Los Angeles scored over one hundred and one of those,
but they've scored one hundred points or more than three
of their last four. I just can't see Connecticut holding
this team under ninety three points tonight.
Speaker 4: The LA team total is ninety two and a half.
Speaker 3: If this was my only concern, if Los Angeles comes
out there and acts like an eleven and a half
point favorite, let's roll out the balls and next thing
you know, we're in trouble early third quarter, then I
probably lose my bet. But the Golden State loss last
night kind of has me thinking that. I mean, if
Lynn Roberts in that locker room doesn't hypeer team up,
telling them, hey, listen, we're going to be in the
eighth playoffs. But if we winness were tied for it,
if we win this game, beat Golden State tomorrow actually
are the eighth seed, it, she'd be crazy not to
say that. I think it's meaningful to LA. I think
they score Connecticut stops nobody I played over ninety two
and a half. For me, it was the first bet
I made, and I think the strongest bet I made.
Speaker 2: I mean, I understand that you are missing potentially Bria.
I mean you don't think of JC is that big
of an offensive deal. You just say you think of
her more of defense. The Sparks defense isn't good either.
Why would we want to exclude the Sparks defense? Miss equation,
That's what I'm thinking. I mean, one seventy five for
both teams seems like it's doable. You you must not
have enough. I must not have as much faith as me.
I guess that Connecticut has firepower to score tonight.
Speaker 3: Well it's funny, see because the other night I played
the Connecticut team total over against Phoenix, right, it was
seventy six.
Speaker 4: And a half and I scored sixty six. And so.
Speaker 3: But in my world, and you've talked to me enough
over the last four years, I'm always huge on bounce back,
and you would figure that after you're only scoring sixty
six and they played a good last three quarters, they
scored sixty again. When I started doing the math, in
my head, it's got to go like ninety four eighty
two to get there. The odds makers are kind of
pricing me out of some of these things. I shouldn't
be afraid. You shouldn't have been afraid the other night
because La Indiana wound up getting to one hundred and
ninety one.
Speaker 4: And as we've said a couple of.
Speaker 3: Times already, these two teams have played over one eighty
I think are close to close to one eighty, and
then over one eighty in two games already this season,
So no reason not to like it. But I have
a lot more faith in the Los Angeles offense against
that Connecticut defense.
Speaker 2: All Right, Well, I'm gonna throw a different curveball in here, Okay,
And I pretty much say this all the time, no
matter if it's WNBA, college basketball, NBA, But if we
can't trust you to get stops, how can we lay
expect you to win by a big margin?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: I mean, Sparks have been the worst defense all season long.
They've been a little bit better their second worst the
last five games, but they're still not good even when
they're winning these games. I mean, they're allowing their oppontments
to get their their portion Sparks as a favorite of
seven or more ohen four hs this season.
Speaker 1: That makes perfect sense to me.
Speaker 2: I think I think both teams score here, and I
don't think the Sparks will play enough defense to cover
the spread. I mean, if I put Connecticut and Over together,
then push me on Connecticut team total over the opposite
of which not the opposite of what you got, but
just the other side. So I'm thinking Connecticut and Over.
Any reason they talk to me off of either of those.
Speaker 3: It's logically no. Connecticut scored eighty six and eighty eight
in the two games against LA so far this season.
LA won by fifteen and one by four. LAS scored
ninety two and one oh one. They've both been huge
scoring games. And to your point, all you had to
do is watch any of these LA games last ten
and realize that they really don't give a blank about defense.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: They kind of remind me of of in nineteen ninety
Loyola Marymount, where all you care about is getting the
ball out of the hoop and getting it down the
floor as fast as you can and scoring and hopefully
grinding a team down.
Speaker 4: They did it to Indiana the other night. The game
was fast, fast, fast.
Speaker 3: Indiana was in it, in it until they weren't, and
then Indiana tried to make a run at the end.
Speaker 4: But the Los Angeles core starters, the four players, the
core four, are so good at scoring the basketball right
now that it's hard to play a full game under
with them. I wouldn't do it.
Speaker 3: And again, like I say, they just don't even care
about playing defense. It seems we've said it right. Their
identity is simple, We're gonna outscore you. That's what they
care about. It's what they do best. It's how they've
gotten back into the playoff race.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: So we're seeing a lot of the same things. Shout
out to Johnny Robinson said he's a new viewyer, loved
the show.
Speaker 1: Appreciate you.
Speaker 2: Mark A says he was on the other screen, that's all.
We missed him in the chat room. And there goes
JD tapping in and say good afternoon to everybody. So
I think we did a pretty good job today, three
games in about twenty three minutes. So on that note,
we will move it on over the best bets. And yeah,
no graphics today. No graphics, I guess this week, you know,
but I'll ask you like we usually do. If there's
anything you would like to promote, and if you have
a best bet for the show, we would love to
hear it.
Speaker 1: If you don't, that is all good.
Speaker 3: It might be better that you don't have the graphics
schime because the deal right now is flex picks, and
every time we talk about flat ourselves into trouble, so
again I'm going to try and describe it in a
way where I can't get in trouble. Go over the
wagetalk dot Com. Flexpicks basically means, I think it's a
three day package where you can change handicappers as you like.
If you think it's a football day and you like
a certain football handicapper, you can choose that handicapper that day.
It's a special price, reduced price, and again you're able
to maneuver however you want.
Speaker 4: With the sports, with the games with the handicappers.
Speaker 3: So go ahead and visit wager talk dot com for
the flexpick special. I'm gonna you know, we may parlay
here again.
Speaker 1: Ski.
Speaker 3: I mean, last two times we've been on the same
game and had different parts of a game. I don't
know where you're going, but if it is the la
Connecticut game, I'm gonna leave you with LA team total
over ninety.
Speaker 4: Two and a half.
Speaker 3: Like I say, the last couple of times that we've
had different angles on the same game, it's come through
both ways. So if you're on that one as well,
maybe we get it again. But for me, it's gonna
be LA Sparks team total over ninety two and a half.
Speaker 1: M LA Sparks team total ninety two and a half.
Speaker 4: Right, ninety two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they've been, they've been. They've been getting
damn near one hundred every game, so I'm not mad
at it.
Speaker 2: For myself, promo wise, I do have a five percent
best bet up for today. I like it quite a bit,
so if you want to roll with me, you can
see the link to my profile Ravino profiles down there
too on the bottom of this and my best bet
for the show.
Speaker 1: Now, I'm gonna change it up, Rob.
Speaker 2: You know, we have had success with that, but I
feel like I've been having success with the best bets
on here picking unders, so I don't I don't want
to stay in that same game for that. I'm gonna
go with Connecticut. I mean, I'm sorry, I'm gonna go
with Indiana and Phoenix trying to see what the best
number we can get here. I just think it's two teams.
Be'st number I can get is actually see a one
to seventy three out there, And I'm just you know,
usually I would open up my app on the show
and put it in there, but I'll do it right after.
But these are two teams who said their focus is defense.
Phoenix has held two straight opponents under seventy points. Indiana
coming off a game giving up one hundred points. I
think that, you know, like like Natasha Howard was saying,
they need to get back to playing some defense if
they want to have success. So in a game that's
pretty important to both of those teams, I like under
one seventy three my best bet for the show. You know,
I always enjoy breaking these games down with you. Thank
you for taking the time to do it.
Speaker 1: Chat Room. We appreciate and we love you as well.
Speaker 2: Like I always say, great people and great cappers and
we're all just trying to help each other and have
a good time. So you guys definitely help make the
show what it is. Shout out to everybody on Twitch,
x kick, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube shorts. Even that's on there, Ravino,
good old YouTube shorts. We appreciate all of you for
tuning in. We'll be back again tomorrow. We have one, two, three,
three games again, so best of luck on all your
action tonight and we will catch you then