Speaker 1: All right, Welcome in everybody. It is Final four weekend.
I'm live from the Final Four. I'm in Indianapolis, right
over by Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Rob Bino. I was at
Hinkle Field House last night for the first time in
my life. What a place. Tremendous, bucket list arena. If
you're a college basketball fan, I suggest you get there
at some point and I'll be at the games we're
going to talk about tomorrow. I have weaseled my way in.
I may be watching from outer space, but I'll be
in the building. So looking forward to that. Two huge games.
We're going to talk about them both on this show. Arizona, Michigan,
you Kind Illinois. We're also going to talk about what
we now know to be the NIT championship game. Tulsa
will play Auburn on Sunday in Gamebridge Field House, and
we have a Crown Tournament still going on out in
Las Vegas. We did semi final one yesterday and we'll
talk about the other semi final as well as potential
final matchups today, Robino, Welcome in. Yesterday was a day
I wish I could have had back. It was one
of those days my five percent on Illinois State lost.
I'm not mad about that because the fate of Auburn
has been a money printer in the n so far,
so you know, I guess all good things come to
an end at some point. But I'm upset with myself
for leaving off Tulsa, leaving off West Virginia, although that
was a miracle win by the Mountaineers, and even leaving
off Creighton, which you and I both talked about on
the Wednesday show, kind of being thinking that it was
the right side, and sure enough it was. They won
and covered all numbers. So frustrating night for me and Hoops,
but hey, I got to go to Hinklefield House, so
I guess I guess I leave a winner. How did
your night go last night? Rob Vena, Kottlae, Hoop was good.
We had three and one yesterday and the loser. Obviously,
what we talked about here on the show with the
Tulsa New Mexico game over didn't happen. You and I
were just talking a little bit off air about the
way that Tulsa won that game, which was interesting.
Speaker 2: No doubt, I thought Boujan would be a huge factor
for the New Mexico offense, Tulsa took the interior away
for the most part. Like I said, when we were
talking off air, you had mentioned they were the more
physical team. It did look that way. You wouldn't expect
that out of Tulsa. When they needed a big three,
they got a big three. It wasn't their best shooting performance,
really not even average, you know, probably a little less
than average for Tulsa. So we'll see if they can
come back and play better offensively. In the championship game
against Auburn, also had the Creighton team total over huge
second half out of Creighton got them to eighty two points.
I think they scored fifty one in the second half,
which got that one home. The West Virginia games, you mentioned, wow,
two and a half left, looks like we're dead, but
West Virginia rallies gets home. And then the final one
was when we used here in the parlay on the
show the Auburn game over the total and I think
the assessment there was correct. Illinois State just couldn't handle
them offensively, and Illinois State was going to have to
score in order to try and win. They just couldn't
score enough. Auburn, unlike a couple of previous games in
this tournament, Adam, they created even further margin in the
second half. They didn't give it back, they opened it up.
So it was a nice three and one night for me.
And we'll see if we can keep that rolling here today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've got a lot to talk about. We're going
to start things off in I guess what we would
call the feature game. It'll be Semi Final number two.
But according to Ken Palm, it's like the game of
the century. So let's get to that one. That's gonna
be Michigan Arizona. Robbie, you know I will piss someone
off every year come Super Bowl time and come to
Final four when you know I get it. Listen, these
are awesome games to watch in awesome games to bet,
and every year I'll make the statement that like this
game when you're a sport's better. This game is no
different than Manhattan Canisius in the middle of December. It
just isn't like and that always gets people upset, Rob
because you know, listen, and I got to shout my
friends out at Basket Under Review. That's of course. Matt Winnick,
who you guys saw last week fill in for rob
the three man weave guys, and it's a whole bunch
of people over there. If you want that game ripped apart,
every possession dissected like that, is a great place to
go and find that. They do tremendous work as guys
that really like break down the nuts and bolts of
basketball from a betting standpoint. I've gone through this game
so many times this week. It's part of the reason
I didn't want to talk about it till today. I
really truly think you're splitting hairs if you are trying
to at the side in Michigan Arizona. I think I
could come on here and make a really good case
for Michigan, and I think there's someone out there that
could make equally as good of a case for Arizona.
It is just where we're at in the season. If
you want what my number is for this game, Michigan
minus zero point nine. I'm pretty sure it opened one
and I don't think it's moved a whole lot, so Robino,
I would be flipping a coin if I got this
game on the side. I'm not the totals guy you are,
So can we find a way into Michigan Arizona Final four.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's difficult. And like you say, Adam, if you
started to handicap this once the matchup was known, you
probably have going back and forth in your mind one
hundred times. Yeah, I think that adds up to Michigan.
Now wait a minute, this adds up to Arizona, et cetera.
They're basically they're mirror images. Accept for the fact that
Arizona does not use the three nearly as much. That's
been their mo all season long, right, they really haven't
used the three, but boy, when they use it, it's efficient.
They make their threes when they have to. The front
lines are the front lines. The matchups are the matchups
that maybe you could argue two of the best front lines,
the two best front lines in the country. I know
Florida would have something to say about that, but again,
arguably you could sit there and make the case for Michigan.
You could sit there and make the case for Arizona.
I have been amazed all season long that Arizona, with
the key contributions that they get from three freshmen, just
continue to roll on like these guys are not phased whatsoever.
And they're led by Jade Bradley, who have gone to
the rack four one hundred times on this show. One
of them. Maybe the most undervalued or underrated or under
the radar, however you want to call him. He just
doesn't a national recognition that other point guards get. But
yet he's the studying force to this team. You know, sidewise,
you're absolutely right at him. It's going to come down
to or at least on paper, it comes down to,
you know, this is it's so easy to say, but
it's so true. Who make shots, I mean in the end,
who make shots in this game? Or who turns it over?
More Neither team is prone to turning it over. Neither
team is especially prone to taking it away. You know,
if you want to go through the this saber metrics
or the analytics or whatever you want to call them,
a three is better than a two, then maybe you
like the Michigan side. I think total here at one
fifty seven and a half. And I have debated this
back and forth, because you're going to see the final
four is like a survival mode and unless unless this
thing hits over time, I think it's going to be
an under the defensive capabilities of both are very visible
when they want to be. Arizona especially, I think does
have somewhat of a defensive edge in this game. Not major,
but there is an edge there to the Arizona defense.
They've played that way all season long. Michigan has gone
in stretches where they play really solid defense and stretches
where they just you know, basically outscore people. The tournament
pat for both of these teams, I'll just end with
this has been I think it's, you know, opposition wise,
opposition power rating wise, it's in favor of Arizona. Arizona's
had the tougher road to get here dan Michigan has.
Michigan's played opponents that have been smaller, They've played opponents
that only know one style of play run. They played
the weaker set of opponents. So maybe, again, I don't
even know if if I can incorporate that into a handicap
at him, Because if Michigan had played Arizona's opponents, which
I'm saying were tougher, I think they were, Michigan could
have run right through those four as well. So what
are we saying here. I don't know that it really
comes into the handicap. I think my initial lean here today,
as we talk about is to play this game under
I think you're looking at something in the you know,
seventy eight, seventy five orch I think between one fifty
three or one and one fifty five is probably the
high point for this game. And you know, odds makers
do set it a little bit high because people love offense,
and they'll continue to bet over it's been bad up
from one fifty seven to one fifty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: My guy Colin in the chat is is he said,
fade at him. But that's a if you were watching
the Total Basis show Rob I someone in the chat
first of all, Collins, my guy, he watches all the shows,
and someone in the chat like said that last show.
So I got mad and gave out one of my
client plays. So that's like apparently you know that's I
got annoyed, and I was like, oh you want something
to fade? Here you go. This is what I bet today.
I long story short, I don't have I don't have
one to do that with here. If I gave listen,
if I gave Michigan out, go ahead, fade it. If
I gave Arizona out, feel free to fade that you're
I think you're. I don't think you have a better
or worse bet either way. As far as the way
I see the game going, Rob, you could be onto
something with the under just because you know, both teams
are really good at like not letting you beat them
down the floor in transition, and I know like both
of these teams like to do that, right, So, like Michigan,
they get a rebound, they're trying to find that early offense.
Can they get a transition bucket? Can they get down
and get a shot? Well, Arizona doesn't really let you
do that. On the other side, Arizona likes to do
the same thing. Michigan doesn't let you do that. Michigan's
gonna shoot more threes? Are they gonna make more? I
don't know. Maybe is Michigan gonna be able to keep
Arizona from getting the rim? Probably not? Right Like I
you know, good good, you know, great offense usually beats
great defense if it comes down to it, right, Elite offenses,
if you've got elite offense, elite rim offense. I don't
know that there's anything Michigan can do to just totally
keep Arizona from, you know, from getting to the rim
or getting a rebound and scoring that way. This is
maybe Ken Palm's right, maybe this is one of the
best games he's got. This as the highest rated game ever.
I think I saw he puts a thrill score on
the game. I think it's the highest rated game of
all time per his website. And you know what, Rob
from a I can't really argue with that. It is like,
I truly think this is the equivalent of like a
like just a great heavyweight fight. There's gonna be adjustments
that can be made in game. But again, how do
you even bet this end game? Really? Because I think
both of these coaching staffs and both of these key
teams are capable to adjust to what the other is doing.
So just for for really being at a loss here,
I'm gonna roll with you and say under makes more
sense because I think they could shut off the outlet
to transition. And if you can do that, if you
can eliminate transition, you would have to have an insanely
efficient shooting performance to get to get it over the total.
Speaker 2: Last thing, Adam, and you kind of hit on it,
and I unmuted myself to go ahead and see if
we could find anything anything between the coaching matchup Dusty
May Tommy Lloyd. Dusty May was here with Florida Atlantic
once already. Maybe he learned a little something. He had
an overmatch team at that point and coached them all
the way to the final four. Tommy Lloyd basically has
had talent before. I'm not gonna say he's had this
much talent, but it's been Arizona type talent, but failed
in most of the spots here. Dusty May versus Tommy
Lloyd in the edge, you like either coach better.
Speaker 1: Man? I don't, again, not enough to like. Come on
and say, matter of fact, we like I give this
team an edge. Maybe in our next game that we
talk about, I'll have more of an opinion on a
coaching edge, but this one not really. I mean I
like Dusty May personally. I'm I'm a Dusty May guy.
So there to just to answer your question, I guess
the slightest of edges.
Speaker 2: To him game of the century.
Speaker 1: He might be the game of the century. Let me
let me bring before we move on to the semi
final number two, well, semi final number one, technically, let
me bring Mansy in. He says he's on I'm on
the under in the Michigan game as well. Michigan had
the perfect setup for ninety plus points has had the
perfect setup for ninety plus points for game. I think
what he's referring to is, over the course of this tournament.
Uh yeah, listen, Arizona is gonna pose a much more difficult,
you know, threat defensively than anyone Michigan's has seen so
far this tournament. Can't can't, can't deny that Tennessee had
some size, but Tennessee was so far gone in that
game early that I think they just kind of, you know,
kind of gave up a little bit. So might not
be the best like barometer. I think Arizona's gonna be
a much tougher test than that. So yeah, they just
it's gonna be a phenomenal game, all right, Rob This game,
the second fought well, it was actually the first of
the two games. This one goes in the semi final
number one spot. I think there's more to I think
there's more to find a way in here in my
opinion to this game Illinois Yukon, and so I will
apply the question the question you just asked, do you
give one of these coaches an edge. I gotta give
the edge to Danny Hurley because and I've said this, well,
you know, I know Joey Cheese is in the chat
he thinks I hate Yukon. That is not true. Although
I do think Sianna matches up well with them. I've
said that right from the beginning. I think I think
my guys would have given you a game, just like
they gave Duke a game. Joey, I that was his
comment in the chat. But I do not hate Yukon.
And in fact, if you go back to our shows,
some of our very first shows, I've stated on a
number of occasions that I think Danny Hurley has the
best coaching staff in college basketball. I think he's arguably
the best coach in the sport. But I think he
has the best staff in the sport. And so if
there was ever a game where I think a coach
in the Final four could could out gain, like can
Danny Hurley out game plan Underwood and win this game
like that? I think he could. I don't know if
he will, but I think he could. I absolutely think
that Yukon there is a route where Hurley puts a
game plan together the Florida game from last year comes
to mind.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: That was a Florida team that won the NCAA tournament
last year, and he totally out game planned Todd Golden.
He was at arguably more of a disadvantage than he
is here, and if a couple of shots fall, Yukon
wins that game. So yeah, Yukon can absolutely win this game.
And if they do, it's gonna be because Danny Hurley
just put on another clinic. The question for you is
will that happen?
Speaker 2: Well? The one I guess extra thing we have with
this game is we have in early season matchup between
these two that we can use as somewhat of a
historical guide here for this season, way back around Thanksgiving
time in Madison Square Garden obviously more of a home
to Yukon than it would be Illinois, but you kind
of did win that game. Two healthy teams thirteen point
Connecticut win. Connecticut pretty much shut down the Illinois three
point shooting, which would be a key to this game.
Illinois was six for twenty nine in that contest. However,
I would somewhat preface that by saying that was prior
to Keaton Wogler becoming Keaton Woggler. You know, it was
when Boswell went down and all of a sudden, Woggler
was putting up thirty plus point games, forty plus point games,
and we got to see how good he really was.
It's a unique team. You don't get teams like this
with two I would say NBA point guards. Obviously, Woggler
is going to be a lot of repick. I think
Boswell could find his way into the league. He's a
defensive hound. He's Illinois's defensive head of the spear. So
to speak, a couple of things here. You have to
find a way I talked about it yesterday. You have
to find a way to try and limit Terris Reid underneath.
Illinois does have size, but I don't know Adam though,
the bulk that Reid has and the tear that he's
been on, I don't know that either of these Evasitch brothers.
It can contain Reid inside. On the other end, which
you'd like to do, because those guys can shoot threes.
Is you would like to draw Reed away from the
rim and you they're nowhere near the rebounding team without
him underneath that they are with him there. So maybe
you know Brad Underwood. Yeah, we give Danny Hurley a
coaching edge here, but we don't want to slight Brad
Underwood either. Very good head coach from his Steven F.
Austin days all the way through Oklahoma State, now Illinois,
he's been good. They have playmakers. Deluxe Stoyakovich, I think,
is an unheralded scorer, very very under control most of
the time, can score at all three levels. Ben Hummerkows
comes off the bench and can hit threes. I mean
Illinois is deep too, But I'll go back to what
I've been saying all season long about Yukon. Their quality
depth is really I'm trying to think of a team
off the top of my head that goes one through nine,
but the backup at every position, if you bring them in,
it doesn't really mean it's a significant downgrade. Yukon can go.
They can sustain or withstand foul trouble because the guys
behind the starters are would be starters other places in
the country. I think the only position I might not
say that at is Alex Caraban's position. They neat Alex
Caravan on the floor and obviously read down to Rebay
the freshman center. It's a downgrade, but Yukon's got quality
depth everywhere. I'll tell you what. Illinois is one of
those teams two thirds of the way through the season.
And I said this on our live action Sunday Selection
Show that two thirds of the way through the season,
I thought they could be in this place Final four.
They sort of slid, were forgotten about a little bit,
but now they're showing us again that they can be
that team. I would like Illinois if not for one thing.
They don't force turnovers. If there's one thing Connecticut does
is they're loose with the basketball. But Illinois is like
in the three hundreds in turnovers forced. And in that
game against Yukon earlier this season, they forced ten, but
it wasn't enough. They still lost by thirteen. So to me,
because Illinois can't take real advantage of the one solid
weakness that I think Yukon has, I would favor Yukon
in that game. Here. One thirty nine and a half
is a pretty good total in my estimation. You can
make the case. I think it's only half the case,
but you could make the case. They both play slow.
The tempo is going to be rock fight tempo. But
I would counter that with honestly, I don't care how
slow teams go. I really don't if they're as efficient
as these two are. Illinois is the number one offensive
efficiency team in the country, So who cares how slow
they go? If they're scoring every time down, it doesn't matter.
So I think at one thirty nine and a half,
that's a that's a tough total to bet into here
one way or the other. But I do think yu
Khon probably ends up being the right side here, just
in my estimation. Too many guys and Illinois doesn't have,
or at least they haven't shown all season long, the
ability to really get up on you, like I'll use
an example that you use all the time, if they
had like TCU guards that we're gonna get up on you.
I would like Illinois because you guys loose with the basketball,
but they don't, So I'll I'll lean Yukon here. In total,
I'm still working on I don't really have a good
good opinion there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I lean lean Yukon as well. Make I actually
make I make them a very slight favorite in this
game during the regular season. I don't know if it
would be enough of an edge for me to get involved,
but like, as far as Final four edges go, it's
probably as good as it's gonna get.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: Matt Winnick, who was our fill in host Rob while
you were out of town. First of all, I shared
all the you guys really liked him. I'm glad we
were able to get him on as a guest. I
saw him at Hinko last night and shared all the
the good feedback from his couple of appearances. I want
to read his tweet though, because I think this is
kind of what you were hitting on, Rob. This is
a tweet he posted the other day. He said the
Illinois Yukon first game, the game won from earlier this
season might be the biggest throwaway game of all time
in terms of like you should not be trying to
make a comparison to that game. Petrovic had played more
than Wagler. I think that's what you said. He played
more than Jake Davis. Eric Reid played more than Taris Reid,
and someone in the chat says Taris Reid is the
key to this game. I would agree with that. Tarris
Reid was was basically not going to play in that
first game. He was he was injured. I think he
was battling like maybe a back injury that kept him
out for a long period of time, and he's looked
really good in the tournament. Jalen Stewart played more than
Braylon Mullins. Well, Raylan Mullins makes Yukon a lot better
offensively in my opinion, and obviously Braylan Mullins is, you know,
just hit the shot of his life, So maybe some
carryover from that. My favorite part of this tweet though,
Illinois's current starting lineup played zero minutes together in that game.
Yukon's current starting lineup played one minute together in that game,
So you know, maybe maybe you throw that first game
out completely. I think that's what I kind of agree
with that, And then you know, maybe it just comes
down to and I'll pull up Cadean and the chat says,
you know, championship pedigree might come in here. Listen. I
was on Duke minus five on Sunday. I thought I
made a very good bet all things considered, until about
the final ten minutes of that game, when I realized
I was on the team that did not know how
to function in that In that moment, right with the
lead game, you know, championship is on the line, and
suddenly there was one team that was far more poised
than another team. In that team was the team that's
been there before, with the coaching staff that's been there before,
and Yukon was able to pull off that win. Now
you're not getting the five point cushion here, but you're
getting what two?
Speaker 2: Two?
Speaker 1: And are we at two?
Speaker 2: Still?
Speaker 1: Roub two and a half?
Speaker 2: I see two.
Speaker 1: I think it's two. Yeah, you're actually probably starting to
see some one and a half. Again, it's not something
i've bet yet, but if I was going to bet
either of the final four games I had, I'd have
to say it's it's probably gonna be Yukon plus the two.
It is the way I would look in this game.
And people are agreeing with me. They saying they make
Yukon the favorite. Yeah, I made them like a one
point a minus one point seven favorite on the neutral.
Joey Cheese thinks every venue is a home a home
venue for Yukon. He says, Store South. I think you
might have been referring to the Garden. I'll tell you
what though, before we move on, that's not going to
be a home venue for Yukon. There is tons of
Illinois people here. I think the I think the crowd
will be pro Illinois. Of any of the four schools.
I think you're gonna have far and away more Illinois
fans than anyone else. It's like a hop, skip and
a jump away from from Illinois.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point too. And Husky Nation travels
for sure a lot of the reason because if you
live in the state of Connecticut, you have the money
to travel, so they will travel.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 2: But I will say this to Joey Cheese, you know,
just being a Connecticut native and growing up there for
thirty two years and still having family there. If they
do win, from probably Norwalk, my hometown, all the way
to South windsor where my son resides now at near Massachusetts,
you'll hear a lot a lot of cheering in that
section here. Great game, Adam, you know, I know people
are referring to and we said it almost jokingly a
few times, but it could be true that Michigan Arizona
is being billed as the pseudo national championship game. Right,
whoever wins that is gonna win. But Illinois and Connecticut
is a great on a normal final four you might
be calling this the greater game, and the team that
wins wins the national title. These are four very very
evenly matched teams, and be interested to see what happens here.
But I do like a little bit of Yukon in
that game.
Speaker 1: Rob before we'll get it. We are doing our very
last show for the season for Full Court. We'll be
Monday morning, so will reserve championship game talk for Monday
morning ten am Eastern. But like, I don't I feel
like there's a big time Like the market just assumes
the winner of Michigan Arizona is gonna win the national championship,
and I'm curious to see how that permeates throughout. Like
like the odds makers setting a number for the for
the championship game, this might be a scenario where you
where the better spot ends up being on Monday night.
Not so much here, because I think you're gonna have
like a bit. I think everyone's gonna have that thought process.
I think everyone's just gonna assume the winner of Michigan
Arizona is gonna win the championship game. What do you
what are your thoughts on that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just trying to run numbers through my head.
I'm with you there. You're gonna pay a premium for
Michigan or Arizona come Monday, because the odds makers know
where the money's gonna come from. And I'm thinking in
my head, if it gets to a place where, you know,
they have to open this thing four and a half
or because they expect a flood of money, then that's
you know, getting too full possessions with Illinois or Connecticut
against either one of those. We'll see where they do open,
but I would think, just off the top of my head,
I would have to believe that it's going to be
at least four and a half five in favor of
Michigan or Arizona come Monday.
Speaker 1: All right, since we are not doing a college basketball
show this weekend, we are going to talk about the
weekend games the best we can. Some have spread, some don't.
The game I want to go to now, Rob is
the one that you you know, we were kind of
talking about at the top of the hour when we
came out of this show, and that is the NIT
Final Tomorrow. This is going to move to Gainbridge Field House,
home of the Indiana Pacers, where the Auburn Tigers will
take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane for an NIT championship.
You know what, I got to say, I bet there's
gonna be a lot of people at that game tomorrow.
I think they're gonna have no problem putting people in
the game Bridge Field House because everyone's just hanging around
with nothing to do between games. So it's like people
are just gonna be hanging around Saturday to Monday, and
it's like, hey, you can go check out an NBA
arena and see the NT Final. I gotta say, before
we get into this game, it was Hinkle is the
perfect place to do the NIT. But man, having the
NIT in the same city as the Final Four just
seems like such a genius move because you just have
people that are here to like enjoy basketball, that are
down to go to the games, and then you bring
in some of the people from the other fan bases.
I kind of hope they. I don't know, I'm torn
now because I think Hinkle's a perfect venue, but rob
I kind of wish. I hope the NIT follows the
Final Four next year to where where ever it's going.
Like it like it's made the perfect weekend and because
of that, I guess just to kick off the handicap
of this, I think you're actually gonna get a pretty
good crowd for the final at gamebridge Field House tomorrow night.
You talked about it at the top of the show.
Auburn was just too much for Illinois State the physicality
and size, athleticism, but rob they also hit every shot
they threw up. I mean they made Andy Lane couldn't
believe it. He's like, is this team ever going to
miss a shot? I go no, I said, we are
very much cooked on Illinois State. They are shooting seventy
percent right now, and I just didn't feel like they
were going to slow down. Tulsa struggles with physicality sometimes,
so do you think they struggle with Auburn in the
final here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of things. Kevin Overton hit a three
last night, and I immediately thought of what you said
on yesterday's show because it was one of those you know,
thirty five foot just pull up and fire from wherever.
He was five for five from three last night. Auburn
hit fifty seven percent of their threes. They hit sixty
three percent of their twos, almost average one point four
per possession. It was a great offensive game in Illinois State.
The difference in personnel showed up right, and I kind
of feel like Adam, what we expected last night out
of Tulsa, New Mexico is what we're gonna get on Sunday.
Let me just start by saying, you talked about genius
moves by the nit. I'll give you another genius move
by the nit. Here is to schedule this game for
eight o'clock at night. Sunday's Easter Sunday. Nobody's watching this
game in the middle of the day. People are gonna
be you know, families are together, Easter dinner, et cetera,
et cetera. But eight o'clock at night, after all it
dust is settled, you know, tune into the only game
on television, and it's a championship game. So all eyes
on Auburn, all eyes on Illin, all eyes on Tulsa.
We talked yesterday at length about Auburn's first three games
inside this tournament, where they didn't look interested. Last night,
they looked interested. They took an Illinois State team that
wanted to play slow and just dictated from the outset
how that game was going to be played. Illinois State
never really had a chance to play the style of
game that they wanted to play and chase mode the
entire game. Here, Tulsa's more equipped for that. In my estimation,
Tulsa's gonna surround that three point line with their shooters,
which Illinois State doesn't have. Illinois State is nowhere near
the three point capabilities of Tulsa we listed yesterday. They
have for four guys thirty nine and a half percent
or better, including David Green, and Tulsa didn't really get
or didn't really have a good shooting night last night.
As we mentioned top of the show, talking off air,
it turned into more of a physical game than either
one of us had expected. I think this one becomes
more of a freelance style game. Auburn wants to out
athlete you they can, But on Auburn's defensive end, I
think Tulsa's got answers. Auburn is not the best defensive
team as far as discipline is concerned. Steven Pearl and
the coaching staff can warn them, Listen, these guys have
great perimeterve shooters. We got to stick to the three
point line. But I don't know that Auburn's athletes necessarily
hear everything that's being said to them where defense is concerned.
So to me, Adam this this total is listed in
the exact same place as it was last night. I
think we can get back we didn't get last night,
and that Tulsa New Mexico game were over is concerned
these two teams, I'd expect it to be a little
bit of up and down. There'll be no give up
unless it's a twenty point, you know, contest with two
minutes left. There'll be no give up from the side
that's losing. It'll be just foul to the finish. Because
nobody wants to lose a championship game. She probably gets
some extension here. Auburn's listed as four and a half
bet up to five right now in a couple of spots.
I can understand it sec against American Conference, American athletic.
But again, I'll say that Tulsa is firmly equipped to
rattle the Auburn defense here with all of their shooters.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tulsa gets out of the
gate quickest in this particular game and Auburn starts to
have to chase. So for me, at this point in time,
I think it's going to be total over I don't
want it to raise up too much. I see sixty
one opener up to sixty one and a half in
sixty two, even at one of the more popular outlets.
So yeah, that's the way I see it. Adam, I
think we get a little get back for what we
didn't get last night.
Speaker 1: Robert, You seeing Tulsa spread?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Are they posted? Have they posted a number for the
side yet?
Speaker 2: Yeah? It opened four and a half, remains four and
a half in a couple of spots, but up to
five in a couple of spots.
Speaker 1: Auburn favored and oh and he goes, he goes, I
think they just made another three pointer. Well yeah, like
here here's the thing, Auburn, I don't I don't think
they I honestly don't think they cared more. I just
think that like they are going to just they're playing
so free and loose offensively, like not those A lot
of those threes were not great shots. It's like Overton
was hitting from thirty five feet. There was there was
two on two occasions. Keishawn Hall kind of just had
the ball. A couple of crossover dribbles didn't go anywhere
did like three crossover drib dribbles, pulled up and just
hit a three in someone's face. Like what I realized
as I was watching that was all right, the guards
from Illinois State don't have the the length to contest
that shot even if they really wanted to. Johnny Kinsinger
Scunberg like they're just they like they were just being
shot over essentially. And Auburn in that game twelve for
twenty one from three, so like it's not like they
were getting great looks at the rim. Now as they
started to wear Illinois State down, they did get a
couple second chance points, but the rebounding was still roughly
even where the points where the twenty two point margin
came from was. Auburn shot sixty percent from three, essentially
fifty seven point one percent, and Illinois State just started
turning the ball over because they got they got flustered
playing from behind, Like you could tell Illinois State came
out and played very good for like the first ten minutes,
like first fifteen minutes of the game, Like Illinois State
was shooting over sixty percent and they were still down eight,
Like you could almost tell Illinois State was like, wait
a minute, we're playing awesome right now, and we're almost
down like double digits. Like that almost doesn't seem fair.
And I think they just like there was a possession
where Kin Ginger threw tried to throw a pass into
three people, throws it away, and then like suddenly, a
six to eight point game that was actually being played
at a very high offensive level turned into a thirteen
point game based on a couple of turnovers. I what
I was impressed with with Tulsa last night, and the
reason I talked myself off of the Tulsa side against
New Mexico is I was worried that they were going
to be out physical by the Lobos because New Mexico
is a very good rin deepense and Tulsa kind of struggles.
If you can punch Tulsa in the mouth a little bit,
that's when they're going to struggle. Even with Auburn putting
up eighty eight points. I don't know that Auburn's just
like taking it to you. I still think they're settling
for tough outside shots. They can make them, They've proven
they can make them. But if Tulsa can bring that
sort of physicality that they brought last night against New Mexico.
They're gonna be right in this game because they're a
little longer on the perimeter and they also can shoot
the three. They didn't even have their greatest shooting night
against New Mexico. They still won the game and they
were getting good looks. Though, Rob, I think like there's
a there's a world where a couple more of those
threes fall and Tulsa wins that game by fifteen points.
Like I think they were more dominant than that final
score shows. And uh yeah, I I haven't really made
up my mind yet, but Tulsa plus the points is
might be the play of the weekend for me. All right,
let's uh, we are gonna so we are gonna lock
in a parlay like we do, you know every day
on this show. Now there's no game today, so you know,
you may have to wait until some of these odds
populate for for you, Like I think the I think
the odds are just popping out right now for the
n I T on most books and then the other
Crown semi finals. So Rob and I talked about Baylor
in Oklahoma yesterday on yesterday's show. You can find that
still up on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Rob. We
will circle back to that game if we have time,
but I want to focus more on the matchup that
we didn't know yesterday, which was West Virginia. Well we
now know it to be West Virginia and Creighton, the
two winners of yesterday's Crown quarterfinal games. So I'll let
you kick this one off. West Virginia Creighton. What did
you see last night? And who do you think has
the edge on Saturday in this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, over time or not, I still think
the edge goes to West Virginia Creighton. You know, Rutgers
just wasn't a great opponent. They hung in for a while,
but they just weren't a great opponent. Second half, their
defense caved, kind of like what we mentioned the day
prior to this game being played, that Rukers just a
good defensive team. We didn't care. I remember you saying
they're bringing everybody from New Brunswick. Everybody's coming to the game,
and you know, we jokingly said, it doesn't matter, bring everybody,
bring more. Your defense still stinks, and it showed up
in the second half. Creighton scored fifty one points without
Austin Schwartz in the game. He won't play tomorrow. Nick
Graves had an outstanding game last night. Justh Dix. The
team played well, but they played well against an inferior opponent.
And here, despite the fact that they had overtime last night,
they get a day of rest in between. I just
think West Virginia is the better side here. I think
West Virginia. You want to talk about a step up
in class defensively between Rutgers and West Virginia, Well, there
you go. It's a pretty steep step up for Creighton.
So I don't know that Nick Graves is going to
have the type of night that he had last night
against that defense. I don't know that Creighton will have
the type of second half shooting that they had. I
mentioned they scored fifty one in the second half. Probably
not going to happen here against West Virginia. And also
Creighton just doesn't have o Corey on their side. I mean,
we talked about you have to cut the head off
the snake and maybe Ross Hodgkin devise a game plan.
He couldn't. You know, Corey crushed him at thirty four
points whatever it was. You couldn't stop him. But the
rest of Stanford after the late game collapse in regulation
just wasn't enough to overcome West Virginia. So for me, Adam,
I see this number now, West Virginia opened one, been
bet up in a couple of places to one and
a half, but mostly one still available. Totalists come down
from one thirty five and a half to one thirty
four and a half. Don't know that I'll get involved there,
but I just think overall, West Virginia is better. West
Virginia shot the ball terribly from three point range last night.
You can't shoot any worse, so I would expect some
bit of an upgrade there in three point shooting. Also,
you know, I get that the that the quest to
win this tournament for head coach McDermott will probably still
exist and be motivational for Creighton. I don't even know
that that's enough. Honestly. I think Ross Hodge in his
first year is trying to lay some type of foundation,
and winning this tournament would be a great foundation for
WVU in his first year. So I just think personnel
wise they're better. Defensively, it's gonna be. Creighton wasn't even
a five hundred team this year. They weren't weren't that good.
Of a team, and so I'm gonna go West Virginia
here at this price. I don't know. I would expect
maybe Adam, I don't know. Maybe I have a better
feeling for this, always trying to gauge where lines may go.
There could be West Virginia money coming, I'm not sure,
but I'd rather play it now at one than wait
until it becomes too or two and a half if
impact the West Virginia bandwagon gets rolling here in this one.
Speaker 1: So to your point about McDermott, I kind of feel
like he had his moment last night. Doug mcder the
his kid showed up right, Doug McDermott came. I think
between NBA games, his family was there. I almost like
feel like that was the sendoff, less than like maybe
winning this turn. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure he wants
to win. I don't think anyone wants to, you know,
goes into a game and never wants to lose. But
I almost feel like he had his like moment after
that game. I got Creighton didn't look great in the
first half. They got out played for twenty minutes by Rutgers.
If you know, in my opinion, second half though, you
could just tell that, like Rutgers was was very much outclassed,
West Virginia is not gonna be You know, I watched
the majority of that West Virginia game on my phone.
Shout out to Hinkle for having great Wi Fi. By
the way, We'll take that all day. You never know,
you're in a building that was built in nineteen twenty eight.
You're always worried if the Wi Fi is gonna work,
but uh, or if you're gonna have service. But shout
out to Hinkle for great Wi Fi. So Andy Lang
and I were able to stream the end of that game,
and it was like kind of felt like West Virginia
went to sleep in the second half a little bit
and forgot that Corey could beat them by himself, and
they were sort of gifted the opportunity, but you know what,
took advantage of it, and once you got to overtime,
they took that game over. I do think ultimately the
right side kind of won in terms of, like I thought,
West Virginia was better for longer stretches in that game.
So who knows, maybe they got the scare and they're
able to sort of avoid that happening here. I'm with you.
I think West Virginia is the better team after watching
some of the play last night, though I don't know
if I'm gonna. I don't know if I'll I think
I'm more inclined to get in the other game then
I think I have a stronger opinion on the other game.
So let's go there for a second while we've got
a few minutes. So yesterday we started the conversation Baylor
Oklahoma like as the line was coming out, I said
it would probably be something like Oklahoma minus one. That's
exactly what it is. And I still I nothing has
changed for me yesterday to today. I still lean the Sooners.
I think they're the better team. And I think Baylor
maybe benefited from Minnesota almost being like a Rutgers to
a point where they they were just outclassed. They had
six guys they couldn't match the physicality of Baylor and
their ability to rebound the basketball. And I think Baylor
just got by with kind of like you're just playing
their game to a twenty point win. So I kind
of like the Sooners. Rob, I know you were on
that same page yesterday. Do you have anything else to
add sideer total Baylor Oklahoma.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like you, Adam. I remain stuck to my
initial opinion, which is this game will get over the number. Baylor.
Like you said, Minnesota was so inept offensively, sixty seven
forty eight was more like a walkthrough. Baylor was more
than happy to play it the way Minnesota likes to
play it. Low possession, slow, up the floor. Baylor was
better on the glass, Baylor was better everywhere. Oklahoma I
think got their bad shooting or their rustiness and shooting
out of the way over the course in the first
ten minutes of that game, and then picked it up
wound up with ninety, albeit in overtime. I think the
game gets up and down a little bit more here.
Baylor has scored I mean eighty plus in a lot
of games this year. I think I forget which team
it was you mentioned yesterday where you said that they
kind of play to the style of the opponent, and
I feel like that's Baylor. If you want to go slow,
they'll go slow. If it's an up and down track,
me it'll be an up and down track beat. And
I think that's what will happen here. Oklahoma can score
on Baylor. I think Baylor can score back one fifty
seven and a half hasn't been touched yet at all.
So I think it's a good spot to get in
in a game where I would probably figure for one
sixty plus. This is their second opportunity at these rims,
so the gym familiarity is there. I like Oklahoma Baylor
over and I do lean with you. I think Oklahoma
is the best team in the field.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and listen, I think you know, you go back
to that Oklahoma Colorado game. Almost feel like Oklahoma's being
penalized for not blowing them out because they didn't have
like three of their guys. When it's like you and
I talked about this, Tad Boyle accepted and at large
to come to this, like he he could have very
easily said no. And so I think, like, yeah, like
Colorado ended up without maybe a couple of their starters,
but I don't think it meant that they weren't like
coming to compete and that they had a good game
plan and just and played a good game. So for me,
I'm not gonna penalize Oklahoma for not winning by ten
to fifteen. And because of that, I think they're kind
of undervalued here because you know, like Slick Fix says,
the Sooners were struggling against backups. Well, I would say
maybe in the first half when they were like because
you also have to remember, like Oklahoma's playing their first
basketball in a couple of weeks. In the first half
of that game, so like everyone's first game in this tournament.
I mean, you look, Crayton had a bad half, Oklahoma
had a bad half. Even Baylor's first half against Minnesota
was not very good. It's just Minnesota is far worse.
I mean Baylor, I think I commented to you Rob,
I was like, man, we're really lucky to be up
five at halftime with Baylor against Minnesota, they played a
very disjointed first half. It's just Minnesota had six guys
couldn't make any shots. And then, of course, yesterday, I
admittedly watched very little of the Stanford West Virginia first
half because I was at the Butler game. But like,
now everyone's got a game under their belt. The four
teams that are still playing in this Crownd Tournament have
a win. I think that, Like again, I'm not worried
about that at all because I think Colorado just simply
came to play and gave them a good game, and
then Oklahoma figured it out and eventually won the game
in the second half. They were the better team in
the second half and they were able to get there
an ot. So I'm I think Oklahoma's being penalized by
the books for that though, I think they should be
a bigger favorite. So yeah, I'm gonna be on this side.
I think I'm gonna be on the Sooners. That's probably
the most likely of me making a bet in one
of these two games.
Speaker 2: It's more than reasonable Adam to use the combination of rustiness.
Remember how hot Oklahoma closed the season and then you
have to get delayed two weeks before you pick up
a basketball again in the live competition, and the over
look angle. I mean, here we go, We're gonna play
six freshmen out of eight guys. We can roll out
the balls and win. They didn't necessarily struggle with Colorado.
They struggled with Hargres. Hargers kind of was like the
o'cory for Stanford in that game at Hargers, he went
to the line sixteen times and hack he was fifteen
for fifteen and then missed that sixteenth to pre throw
in overtime, But he was very vocal about wanting to
be there because it's gonna be his team next year.
You know, Isaiah Johnson's out now it's gonna be his team,
and they had something to prove where I think Oklahoma
mentally focus wise, you know, Porter Moser probably has them
now that they've advanced. I think they're probably in the
right frame of mind here. And Baylor gets your attention
a little bit more X Big twelve competition, They get
your attention little more than four freshmen from Colorado or six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Rob Baylor, old Big twelve opponent for a Rahoma.
You know, they used to play all the time, Baylor
National champ twenty twenty one. It wasn't that long ago
when Baylor was playing for a national title and sort
of regularly in that conversation. So I agree with all
those points. We have gotten to the end of the show.
So this is about the time where we decide to
two teamer or three team or do we take one
final shot of the three teamer. We've got five games
to choose from, so we will we will choose from.
We've got two final four games, two Crown games, or
the n i T Final on Sunday. I will let
you go first. What is your parlay leg best bet
going to be?
Speaker 2: Well, let me start with this. Can we both agree
or do we both agree on West Virginia against Creighton.
If we do, we'll go three team and be common
If we don't, then I'm trying to find one that
we would have common ground on to build a three
A three team or week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can. I think I could get down with
West Virginia again or Oklahoma. You know, I would agree
on the Oklahoma side, But if you're going to use
the total in that game, then we can use West Virginia.
Speaker 2: It's up to you.
Speaker 1: I don't know where you're were leaning for that.
Speaker 2: All right, let's let's use Oklahoma as our common ground
play in the three teams. Okay, mine is the one
point because I can. I can certainly see that. And
then I'll use the Sunday night game Tulsa Auburn over
one sixty one as my end of this parlay. I
think Tulsa Auburn is certainly going to get there.
Speaker 1: Tulsa Auburn over one sixty one. Yeah, you know that
was the total for yesterday's game. And I that's one
thing I was very surprised with with with New Mexico
and Tulsa and the way those two teams play. I
thought I really thought there was going to be a
lot of offense. I thought Tulsa would have really struggled
with you know, New Mexico's ability to to you know,
P and R and get to and get to the rim.
You know, I've noted this at times throughout the season.
Tulsa is not the you know, not the best rim defense.
They're not the most physical team. They they're not a
bad defensive team, but it's just like that's not really
their m o. They want to play a little bit faster.
They're gonna they prefer to beat you, you know, eighty
five eighty two, then get into a lower scoring game.
And yet against New Mexico, they were the more they were,
the more physical team. They were the ones that that
threw New Mexico off held them the thirty five point
seven percent shooting from the field. So that was surprising
to me. But I do think against Auburn it reverts
back to Auburn taking a lot of shots, not running
a ton of shot clock. Tulsa's probably not gonna see
here's the other thing in this Tulsa Auburn game, I
think they're gonna be able to get some points at
the rim if they want it, because Auburn's paint defense
has been kind of not great in this tournament. I
think Chase Walker is just a little bit slow. I
think he was like they were able to just sort
of push him off and he wasn't able to do
what he does to Missouri Valley big men. To Auburn,
it was just they were just too big. But Tulsa
doesn't have that problem. You're not gonna You're not gonna
push David Green around. David green'snna run you over. So yeah, Rob,
I could see that this one being the one where
there's all the points and now you're getting the same
total as you were gonna get last game.
Speaker 2: And to your point from yesterday, because you just mentioned
over an interior defense, Keishawn Murphy left the team and
that's why the interior defense, as we talked about Jovich yesterday,
not being a guy that necessarily is gonna defend the rims.
So all right, we'll roll there and go ahead, give
us a third.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yo Yovich has been fine from an offensive standpoint,
but he's not the same type of defender. All right,
with what's left, I'll go Yukon. I'm gonna put Yukon
plus two in the parlance for my guy Joey Cheese,
I'm gonna put Yukon plus two. I make them a
very slight favorite. I want to put a final four
pick in uh By, No, you know it's it's by.
It's far from a lock. Okay, it is, it is,
But I do think that there is enough of it,
uh uh edge getting the two that it's reasonable to
put when you've got five games to choose. So I'm
gonna trying to make a three teamer. So I'll take
the bucket with Yukon. I want to pull up one
comment before we sign off, Aby Aby Cover, ab Cover
says triggered Veno just wanted to say thanks for all
your hard work over the season and dedication. We'll miss
the live Monday, so just wanted to tell you both
thank you for the best season yet. We very much
appreciate the feedback. That was the goal of this show.
In addition to uh, you know, entice you guys to
buy some picks from us, it was also to come
on here and do a long form show where we were.
We we kind of had the platform to like dig
deep into college houpe and talk about the smaller teams,
the lesser games. And I'll tell you what, we would
not be allowed to do that if you guys didn't
show up and comment and watch on a daily basis.
So we think we appreciate you guys. We thank you
because without you guys, with without the viewers in here
every day in the chat and the comments and the
likes and the subscribes and the subscriptions to our package,
which you know we did did awesome, So we got
to thank you guys for that as well, we would
not be on the airwaves. So that the you know,
it's the thought is mutual and I appreciate the kind
words right there. We will be on one final time.
Rob and I will be on on Monday morning, ten
am Eastern to break down the National Championship game and
wrap up the season, signing off the parlay one more time.
We have Oklahoma minus one, u Con plus two and
then god willing, we're live in the Sunday for Falter
Auburn over. I'll be at that game at Gainesbridge Field
House on Sunday night. So I'll be rooting us home
points in person.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: And again, if you're in Indy this weekend, hit me up,
shoot me a DM. I'm gonna be around. Met a
couple of people at Hincklefield House last night, which is great.
Love to meet you guys in person, so we will.
We'll see you Monday morning. Everyone enjoyed the Final four
this weekend and uh, have a great weekend. We'll see
you guys, See you guys soon.