WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>You're flat out and your to do list is growing

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<v Speaker 1>by the minute, but unfortunately, so is your headache. And

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<v Speaker 1>now you've gone from flat out to flattened. Luckily, Panadal

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<v Speaker 1>extra film coated tablets are boosted by caffeine and they

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<v Speaker 1>get to work in as little as ten minutes for

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<v Speaker 1>powerful relief. That's more than just paracetamol. That's one for

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<v Speaker 1>panadal speed based on absorption data contains paracetamol. Always read

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<v Speaker 1>the label or leaflet.

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<v Speaker 2>Oohways, your old uncle who's pretty dubious of that fat

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<v Speaker 2>free salad dressing ally ward back with another episode of ologies.

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<v Speaker 2>So before you think, wait, did I hear this one already?

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<v Speaker 2>Is this just a revisiting of lepidopterology with butterfly expert Filedrus,

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<v Speaker 2>who also professionally plays with baby dogs on his new

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<v Speaker 2>CW television show Ready Set Pet. Nope, it's a different episode,

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<v Speaker 2>different Filedrus. It's a different Filmorus.

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<v Speaker 1>Boy.

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<v Speaker 2>Howdy, you know in the sixty plus episodes that we

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<v Speaker 2>have journeyed through together, friends, we have gone face first

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<v Speaker 2>into death and tumors and misogyny, pet euthanasia, dabbled into

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<v Speaker 2>crow funerals. But I gotta say this one. Wow, this

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<v Speaker 2>one's gonna have you just staring into the mirror at

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<v Speaker 2>one am, asking the fuck ward. Maybe more than any

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<v Speaker 2>of them. This one is the apocalypse? Are you ready? No? Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna stall for one second before the existential upheople.

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<v Speaker 2>Just a quick thanks to everyone supporting via Patreon dot com,

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<v Speaker 2>slash ologies, anyone who has put merch on your bod

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<v Speaker 2>from ologiesmerch dot com, and all the folks who, for

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<v Speaker 2>zero dollars rate make the commitment to hit subscribe, who

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<v Speaker 2>leave a review which I creep with joy and I

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<v Speaker 2>highlight one each week this week, you know what I'm

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<v Speaker 2>gonna do too. Once quick shout out to Tara and Maine,

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<v Speaker 2>who is a self proclaimed former podcast hater and now

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<v Speaker 2>an ologite. Come be one with us, and also thank

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<v Speaker 2>you for the timely aes Hell review from Seattle Me

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<v Speaker 2>two two seven, who says I especially love the takes

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<v Speaker 2>on dark topics like death and fear so refreshing. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>an instant fan. Well, wow, Seattle Me two two seven,

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<v Speaker 2>buckle up, we're talking about doomsday. So Eschatology comes from

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<v Speaker 2>the Greek for last, meaning it's the study of the end,

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<v Speaker 2>the end of the world. So, as this ologist explains,

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<v Speaker 2>this term is no longer bound to just religious contexts,

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<v Speaker 2>but also scientific study. So he is a neuroscientist, philosophy scholar,

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<v Speaker 2>and author of three books, including The End, What Science

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<v Speaker 2>and Religion tell Us About the Apocalypse and his latest release,

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<v Speaker 2>Morality Foresight and Human Flourishing and Introduction to Existential Risks.

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<v Speaker 2>As you'll hear, the Apocalypse and this episode were both

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<v Speaker 2>a long time in the making, and I coerced this

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<v Speaker 2>ologist to drive a few hours and meet me in

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<v Speaker 2>an airport hotel in Philly, and he was so generous

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<v Speaker 2>with his time. He pretty much spent the evening being

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<v Speaker 2>lobbed questions, just barraged like asteroids, one after the other.

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<v Speaker 2>And you'll hear about his background that led him to

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<v Speaker 2>this branch of philosophy and where we're at on the

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<v Speaker 2>old doomsday clock, whether or not any of us should

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<v Speaker 2>have babies, if we should bother recycling, why voting matters,

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<v Speaker 2>looking at you, America and some pop cultural anti Christ's

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<v Speaker 2>artificial intelligence simulations, black mirror technology as friend or foe.

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<v Speaker 2>And now he's just a pretty chill guy anyway, So

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<v Speaker 2>pack up your bug out bag and put a down

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<v Speaker 2>payment on a bunker while you enjoy the brilliant brain

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<v Speaker 2>of eschatologist Phil torrest glasses.

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<v Speaker 3>It's just.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't even need an apocalypse. You're your own nightmare.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, this is yours. Okay, So let's start

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<v Speaker 2>off number one by saying that I have been twitter

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<v Speaker 2>stalking you for a year no response from you, and

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, wow, that felt tors guy. Pretty busy. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>pretty important guy, It's pretty important. So many times I

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<v Speaker 2>was like, hey, I'd love for you to be on them. No, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know who nails you. Also, no, I'm not

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<v Speaker 2>trying to put you on blast. I'm just saying that

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<v Speaker 2>you're this is a very big get for me. This

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<v Speaker 2>is of no fault of your own. I was just

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<v Speaker 2>very eagerly like, Hi, it's me again.

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<v Speaker 3>Well thank you. And when I finally saw the tweet

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<v Speaker 3>that I responded to, I responded to it very eagerly.

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, these apocalypse people are very aloof The

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<v Speaker 2>apocalypse scene is like the most aloof of all of them.

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<v Speaker 2>Little did I know, Oh, you are eager. And also

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<v Speaker 2>you are the second filters I've had on the podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>How often do you someone who studies theories about the

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<v Speaker 2>end of the world. Get confused with someone who studies

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<v Speaker 2>butterflies and has a show about puppies.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm more I feel kind of bad for the emails

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<v Speaker 3>that he might receive, you know, because he studies butterflies,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, that's pretty awesome and pretty fun, and

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<v Speaker 3>there's a lightheartedness to it, whereas there's a darkness and

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<v Speaker 3>a heaviness, oh God, to thinking about say, runaway climate

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<v Speaker 3>change or value misaligned superintelligence.

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<v Speaker 2>So, okay, let's dive into what your ology is. It's eschatology. Eschatology,

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<v Speaker 2>how do we say it.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a good question. There's actually a debate right now, Okay,

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<v Speaker 3>whether the idea of secular apocalyptic scenarios should constitute its

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<v Speaker 3>own yield, or or rather whether it to just be

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<v Speaker 3>a topic that is discussed by people experts in their

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<v Speaker 3>various uh uh, you know, areas of expertise. So that so,

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<v Speaker 3>in other words, the term the semiska, the term have

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<v Speaker 3>evolved over time, and at this point, like, yeah, there's

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<v Speaker 3>a sense in which it's kind of the topic that

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<v Speaker 3>I'm interested in is kind of scientific eschatology. Yeah, thinking

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<v Speaker 3>about the the end of the world from once again

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<v Speaker 3>like a in evidence based you know, uh, empirical perspective.

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<v Speaker 2>As opposed to a proof you did, which would be

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<v Speaker 2>more like being smoked by Zeus or something.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, okay, that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, which we in this in this way we are

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<v Speaker 2>our own angry God. Yeah kind of yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean there are you know, myths uh of uh,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, Greek myths of humans who gain too much

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<v Speaker 3>power and uh, you know it didn't turn out so well.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the central concept is that of existential risk,

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<v Speaker 3>and that is cheerfully defined as any event that would

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<v Speaker 3>either cause human extinction or result in irreversible decline of

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<v Speaker 3>our potential for desirable future development.

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<v Speaker 2>So in this case, the end of the planet as

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<v Speaker 2>we know it, or the end of our species the

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<v Speaker 2>Great Ruby. Also, this subject matter is so so dark

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<v Speaker 2>and surreal that I just could not stop laughing at

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<v Speaker 2>the absurd awfulness of it. I'm so sorry. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know why. This is so far the most hilarious episode.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just so terrible. It's like kind of funny.

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<v Speaker 3>I was at a conference a while back and with

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<v Speaker 3>a bunch of people who publish on this topic, and

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<v Speaker 3>we had a really good time. It was a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of fun. There was a lot of laughter and joyousness,

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<v Speaker 3>and at some point we sort of conjectured that there

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<v Speaker 3>must be self selection process, you know, if you're if

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<v Speaker 3>you are like lugubrious by disposition a certain amount.

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<v Speaker 2>Ps The word lugubrious means sad and mournful, and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not too proud to admit that I just had to

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<v Speaker 2>look it up.

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<v Speaker 3>Then you just don't end up, you know, living, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>in breathing these issues all the time.

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<v Speaker 2>We need balance, because how can we appreciate a butterfly

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<v Speaker 2>if we don't appreciate the fact that the butterfly could

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<v Speaker 2>maybe just combust spontaneously into fire, along with every one

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<v Speaker 2>that you love.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, I've sometimes mentioned, you know, a kind of

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<v Speaker 3>paradox of the field, which is that I think it

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<v Speaker 3>is among the most important topics that anybody could be

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<v Speaker 3>talking about or thinking about, researching, publishing on.

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<v Speaker 1>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the whole crux of what you do is

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<v Speaker 2>how can we appreciate our existence if we don't examine

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<v Speaker 2>the possibility of it ending? Right?

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<v Speaker 3>That is sort of that is an impla. Yeah, So

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<v Speaker 3>the stuff that I do in particular is mostly trying

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<v Speaker 3>to understand the nature of the biggest global scale kind

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<v Speaker 3>of disaster scenarios facing humanity this century for the express

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<v Speaker 3>purpose of identifying ways to mitigate those risks and make

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<v Speaker 3>sure that they never happen.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, let's go back in time to baby Philterrus. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>at what point did your family realize you were more contemplative,

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps than other children?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we're talking about me en. That's okay, Okay, got it.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's interesting. I mean my interest now I can

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<v Speaker 3>there's a kind of genealogy I can trace all the

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<v Speaker 3>way back to the childhood because I grew up in

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<v Speaker 3>a pretty religious household. Oh and what flavor Baptists to

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<v Speaker 3>use the more esoteric term the broader view was dispensationalist.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know what that means.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's when you hear about the rapture. Oh, you

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<v Speaker 3>can think spensatialism.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, that is the poof I'm gone. Are my clothes

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<v Speaker 2>and shoes still here, but my body and soul is gone.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the rapture. Yeah, okay, if.

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<v Speaker 3>You actually look carefully the chronology of the narrative, it's stunning,

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<v Speaker 3>like the rapture supposed to happen and your your soul

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<v Speaker 3>is separated from your body, and then there's a seven

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<v Speaker 3>year tribulation where the Anti Christ gains power in the

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<v Speaker 3>UN or EU or something like that, and then signs

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<v Speaker 3>of peace treaty initially begin a tribulation with Israel, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>and then halfway through invades Israel, and then God reigns

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<v Speaker 3>down all of this horrible punishment, and then there's the

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<v Speaker 3>Second Coming and that's when Armageddon happens, and then there's

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<v Speaker 3>there There, and then there are various other things that

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<v Speaker 3>continue to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>In the You grew up with these yes, sorry, I

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<v Speaker 2>did with these beliefs.

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<v Speaker 3>I did it. You know it. I have to say

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<v Speaker 3>it fueled some some pretty freaky termames never you know,

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<v Speaker 3>for an eight year old. And I do actually have

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<v Speaker 3>this vivid memory of being in the basement of my

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<v Speaker 3>house when Bill Clinton on election night, when Bill Clinton won,

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<v Speaker 3>and it was widely agreed upon in my community that

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<v Speaker 3>he was the Antichrist, and so I just remember being

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<v Speaker 3>overcome with terror, and you know, like, this is really happening,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know the.

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<v Speaker 2>I love that the Anti Christ plays a saxophone, like

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<v Speaker 2>because they're going to be smooth and they're gonna charm you.

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<v Speaker 3>Totally. It's part of the charm. Yeah, it's part of

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<v Speaker 3>the Yeah, the charisma and.

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<v Speaker 2>An early nineties sax solo and everyone's like, well, damn,

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<v Speaker 2>here he is. He has arrived. Is your family still

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<v Speaker 2>pretty religious?

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<v Speaker 3>Half of it is?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, half the thing is quite quite religious and the

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<v Speaker 3>other half isn't so much along with me. Is kind

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<v Speaker 3>of drifted away from, you know, the dogmatism and the

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<v Speaker 3>various belief commitments that half the family has. But I

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<v Speaker 3>do think it planted seeds of interest with respect to

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<v Speaker 3>Christian eschatology. There was a sense of like, well, what's

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<v Speaker 3>what's a grander topic then thinking about not just the

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<v Speaker 3>death of individuals but the species. And of course the

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<v Speaker 3>vast majority of species that have ever lived on the

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<v Speaker 3>planets have gone extinct.

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<v Speaker 2>And there's something like ninety nine point nine percent of

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<v Speaker 2>all species that have ever lived are extinct.

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<v Speaker 3>That's correct.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So like fate has our number.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, the odds are not favorable.

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<v Speaker 2>No, maybe odds be ever in your favor, Okay, but

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<v Speaker 2>can humans skirt extinction like perhaps some ferns and weird

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<v Speaker 2>birds and old timey dead salamanders and the other five

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<v Speaker 2>billion extinct species she couldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>We are unique in that, I mean, for obvious reasons.

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<v Speaker 3>We're we have a very high encephalization quotient, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>big brain, big brains, and have the capacity to to

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<v Speaker 3>modify our environment in various ways. You know. It's been

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<v Speaker 3>said that the dinosaurs died out because they didn't have

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<v Speaker 3>a space program, you know, And so we maybe can

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<v Speaker 3>use technology to actually significantly reduce the probability of all

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<v Speaker 3>sorts of catastrophes. But unfortunately, most of the risk these

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<v Speaker 3>days comes from technology itself and large scale human activity,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, and climate change and global biodiversity loss. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>technology is Janus faced, and you know, kind of a

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<v Speaker 3>double edged shorts. Who was Janus?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, first off, let's call him the Roman god formerly

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<v Speaker 2>pronounced Janus by me because I never knew it was Janus.

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<v Speaker 2>But anyway, he's the god of beginnings and transitions, and

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<v Speaker 2>he looks to both the past and the future at

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<v Speaker 2>the same time, hence January named after this bro. But

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<v Speaker 2>Janus faced means that you can have characteristics that contrast

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<v Speaker 2>or be deceitful. So it's like the scholarly way of

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<v Speaker 2>saying this, someone is a two face pitch. So phil

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<v Speaker 2>is saying technology is a two face bitch, Well, what

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<v Speaker 2>at what point did you have to decide upon this

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<v Speaker 2>as a major So this is a this is a

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<v Speaker 2>sect of theology and philosophy of sorts.

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<v Speaker 4>Correct, not correct, I would not say theology. Okay, yeah,

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<v Speaker 4>it's I mean it's naturalistic, you know. So that actually

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<v Speaker 4>gets at a really interesting point. For most of human history,

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<v Speaker 4>contemplations about the end of the world were deeply intertwined

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<v Speaker 4>with religious beliefs, and so there was there was a

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<v Speaker 4>sense in which people kind of thought took seriously sort

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<v Speaker 4>of the long term future of humanity. But that was

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<v Speaker 4>within the a theological framework according to which you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we have immortal souls, and.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, at the end of the world there's there's

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<v Speaker 3>to be a series of supernatural events. And only recently

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<v Speaker 3>have humans started to think about the end from a secular,

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<v Speaker 3>from a naturalistic perspective. The concept itself is really quite recent.

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<v Speaker 3>There just isn't much that was said about human extinction.

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<v Speaker 3>Even after the end of World War Two, which of course,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, coincided with the inauguration of the atomic age,

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<v Speaker 3>there's still I don't know, there wasn't that much thought

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<v Speaker 3>about you know what happens if our evolutionary lineage terminates,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe as a result of our own actions.

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<v Speaker 2>But like, we just invented soap, you know what I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>Like we just figured out how babies were made. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we're such idiots. I mean, God bless us. But like

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<v Speaker 2>the idea of being like and when shall the specure

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<v Speaker 2>be mortal? Is like we have so much else to

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<v Speaker 2>figure out, you know. Yeah, I mean honestly, contraception is

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<v Speaker 2>like thirty years old. It's crazy. Yeah, so we didn't

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<v Speaker 2>even begin curbing the population really until recently. So okay,

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<v Speaker 2>getting back to school, though, at what point are you saying, philters,

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<v Speaker 2>I am a philosophy major. This is my subset. Did

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<v Speaker 2>you find a mentor in it? Or how do you

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<v Speaker 2>do how do you become one of you? How do

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<v Speaker 2>you do your life?

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<v Speaker 3>If that's what you want?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes?

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<v Speaker 3>For some reason, well, yeah, philosophy was my main subject.

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<v Speaker 3>And then I got a master's in neuroscience, which is

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<v Speaker 3>somewhat related to there's some it's also baller.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, come on, masters in neuroscience.

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<v Speaker 3>It is it sounds way more impressive than it actually is.

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<v Speaker 3>I'll just to be candidate.

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<v Speaker 2>So Phil got his bachelor's in philosophy and his masters

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<v Speaker 2>in neuroscience, and at some point he encountered a paper

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<v Speaker 2>by Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom entitled Existential Risks Analyzing Human

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<v Speaker 2>Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards. Now, the term existential risk

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<v Speaker 2>means the apocalypse, just doomsday, the end. And I looked

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<v Speaker 2>up this paper just to have a little look sie,

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<v Speaker 2>just to do a little perusing, And I'm just going

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<v Speaker 2>to read you the first sentence quote, it's dangerous to

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<v Speaker 2>be alive and risks are everywhere. I was like, wow, man, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>straight out of the gate. Okay, I like that. But

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<v Speaker 2>the next sentence was a little cheerier, saying, luckily, not

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<v Speaker 2>all risks are equally serious. So I started skimming this

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<v Speaker 2>paper and I came to a header just titled bangs,

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<v Speaker 2>and I was like, oh, man, dude, I have cut bangs,

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<v Speaker 2>And yes, it did feel like the end of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>And then I realized that it was just one of

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<v Speaker 2>four categories of big death in various levels of suddenness

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<v Speaker 2>like bangs, crunches, shrieks, and whimpers. So this boss from

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<v Speaker 2>paper includes topics such as nuclear holocaust, asteroid impact killed

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<v Speaker 2>by extraterrestrial civilization, and a whole category titled quote, we're

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<v Speaker 2>living in a simulation and it gets shut down, so

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<v Speaker 2>just a casual bebop down hazard street, which wasn't in

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<v Speaker 2>op to Phil Taurus, because you know what, someone's got

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<v Speaker 2>to do these jobs, right, I.

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<v Speaker 3>Think it's in his original paper, Bostrom notes that the

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<v Speaker 3>number of papers published about dung beetles in scholarly journals

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<v Speaker 3>far exceeds the number about like human extinction or you know, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>so that's starting to change a little bit. Maybe this

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<v Speaker 3>this brings us right back to the two phil tours is.

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<v Speaker 2>I know, so speaking of like a double signed coin

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<v Speaker 2>bridging this entomology and eschatology divide. Though one published paper

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<v Speaker 2>titled the Role of dung Beetles in reducing greenhouse gas

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<v Speaker 2>emissions from cattle farming. So dung beetles, they're out there

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<v Speaker 2>making the most of an objectively shitty situation, and they're

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<v Speaker 2>helping us survive along the way.

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<v Speaker 3>Climate change is a phenomenon we've never encountered before, at

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<v Speaker 3>least not this type of you know, anthropogenic climate change,

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<v Speaker 3>which is very rapid. There's also global biodiverse loss, which

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<v Speaker 3>is truly extraordinary. It's widely considered that we're in this

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<v Speaker 3>early stage of the six mass extinction event right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh good, And just to give listeners a sense of

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<v Speaker 3>how dire the situation is with respect to the global

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<v Speaker 3>global ecosystems and the biosphere more generally, there was a

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<v Speaker 3>report from twenty fourteen called the Living Planet Report, and

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<v Speaker 3>they found that between I don't know, I'm chuckling, but

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<v Speaker 3>it's just, oh god, I don't know what is between

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen seventy and twenty twelve, the global population of wild

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<v Speaker 3>vertebrates declined by fifty eight percent.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh that's a lot.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a huge amount.

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<v Speaker 2>It's what.

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<v Speaker 3>It's deeply unsettling. I mean, it's not difficult to extrapolate

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<v Speaker 3>that into the future. Right, So this is happening, it's urgent.

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<v Speaker 2>This is like the part and a party where shit

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<v Speaker 2>starts going wrong, like someone barfs, someone breaks the coffee table,

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<v Speaker 2>it's get late, the neighbors call the police, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>just like, oh, this party is done, this party is done.

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<v Speaker 2>You got we got to get out of here. Have

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<v Speaker 2>you considered writing a book just called We're All Fucked?

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<v Speaker 2>You would move so many copies just haven't be called

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<v Speaker 2>we're fucked. I mean, that's kind of that. That's kind

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<v Speaker 2>of the reality, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? Yeah, well no, I do think there's hope.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, Okay, let's run down. Let's say you're at a

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<v Speaker 2>dinner party and someone's like, oh, what do you do?

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<v Speaker 2>And you tell them and they're like, what, how's the

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<v Speaker 2>world going to end? Give me a quick menu if

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<v Speaker 2>we if we had sat down at a restaurant and

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<v Speaker 2>we're like, here are the options for apocalypse? What are

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<v Speaker 2>we looking at?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? I would I sort of identify three main classes

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<v Speaker 3>of phenomena. So the first class, I think is environmental degradation. Uh,

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<v Speaker 3>you know if we, you know, Elon Musk and Jeff

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<v Speaker 3>Bezos want to you know, to set up colonies on Mars,

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<v Speaker 3>which is I think misguided, and all that money would

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<v Speaker 3>be a lot better spent trying to ensure that this

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<v Speaker 3>spaceship that we're on it remains habitable. So yeah, there

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<v Speaker 3>are all sorts of statistics that could be mentioned here

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<v Speaker 3>that are very unsettling, okay and very worrisome.

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<v Speaker 2>Give me some By the way, I'm with you on

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<v Speaker 2>the way, why are we going to go to Mars?

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<v Speaker 2>When we have a planet that we're not done ruining yet. Yeah, Like,

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<v Speaker 2>we have a whole planet here. We could just not

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<v Speaker 2>mess this up. Yeah, so give me some unsettling statistics.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm ready for them.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm also very skeptical of space conversation just generally. And

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<v Speaker 3>there's a really fantastic book that's forthcoming by a guy

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<v Speaker 3>named Daniel Dudney who's a political scientist at Johns Hopkins

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<v Speaker 3>called Dark Skies, which offers a really detailed case for

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<v Speaker 3>why venturing into the Solar System and then into the

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<v Speaker 3>galaxy could actually have quite ruinous consequences, evolutionary trajectories that

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<v Speaker 3>we will likely followers, and all sorts of technologies that

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<v Speaker 3>could we could use to alter our phenotypes.

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<v Speaker 2>You got to just splice us together with a tartar grade,

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<v Speaker 2>you know what I mean, half human, half tartar grade.

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<v Speaker 2>My head on a tartar grade body, but the size

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<v Speaker 2>of a dog. I mean, that's what we're looking at.

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<v Speaker 2>We stand dehydration for ten years, it'd be great. Can

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<v Speaker 2>you imagine I'm going to photoshop that?

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<v Speaker 3>So sorry to veer off in that direction, but space

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<v Speaker 3>conversation is I mean, that's another issue that is you know, right, now.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean it could be the next ten years that

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<v Speaker 3>we have some colonies on Mars. So like, yeah, I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's it's a timely issue. Yeah, okay, So getting

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<v Speaker 3>back to the main potential causes of our annihilation.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it sucks. I love, it sucks so bad we're

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<v Speaker 2>all gonna die. Okay, So we got environmental degradation.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is exactly the moment when we need environmental wisdom,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, and we clearly don't have it. So the

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<v Speaker 3>other issue, I think it has to do with emerging

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<v Speaker 3>technologies that are dual use in nature, can be used

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<v Speaker 3>for both harmful or beneficial ends. There are various domains

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<v Speaker 3>of technology right now that are developing extremely rapidly at

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<v Speaker 3>exponential pace or like super exponential pace, and they hold

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<v Speaker 3>immense promises to cure disease, to reverse aging, to maybe

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<v Speaker 3>even restore the environment in some way. I mean, de

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<v Speaker 3>extinction is like a new thing.

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't know that was even a word.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a word. Yep.

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<v Speaker 2>Very optimistic.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, George Church at Harvard is right now working on

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<v Speaker 3>a project to bring back the wooly mammoth and some

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<v Speaker 3>other species.

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<v Speaker 2>So so a good idea.

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<v Speaker 3>Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they

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<v Speaker 3>could they didn't stop to think they should. I don't know,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe not, but I think there's a very good conversation

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<v Speaker 3>to be had about that.

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<v Speaker 2>The conversations being is it ethical to edit Asian elephant

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<v Speaker 2>genes and add in willly mammoth traits? And does this

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<v Speaker 2>lead the way to careless extinctions? Because now we know

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<v Speaker 2>we have these genetic backups on ice? And also, was

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<v Speaker 2>Mistress Nophlebigus the ones selectively seen and then fully acknowledged

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<v Speaker 2>mammoth like puppet of Sesame Street? Was he an agent

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<v Speaker 2>of existential foreshadowing in this life simulation we call Earth?

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<v Speaker 2>Also is technology evil?

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<v Speaker 3>Technology could enable us to do all sorts of I

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<v Speaker 3>think genuinely marvelous things. But also these same technologies could

419
00:24:40.279 --> 00:24:45.319
<v Speaker 3>enable us to synthesize designer pathogens that you know are

420
00:24:45.720 --> 00:24:49.240
<v Speaker 3>really unnaturally dangerous. They could have long incubation periods, so

421
00:24:49.559 --> 00:24:51.559
<v Speaker 3>you don't you know, they could spread around the globe

422
00:24:51.599 --> 00:24:57.640
<v Speaker 3>without people exhibiting symptoms, super lethal and making matters worse.

423
00:24:57.680 --> 00:25:00.839
<v Speaker 3>It's not only the case that theechnology it is becoming

424
00:25:00.880 --> 00:25:03.680
<v Speaker 3>more powerful, but it's becoming much more accessible too, So

425
00:25:03.720 --> 00:25:06.119
<v Speaker 3>it's not just that like a large group of scientists

426
00:25:06.200 --> 00:25:09.359
<v Speaker 3>like the Manhattan you know Manhattan Project size group of

427
00:25:10.440 --> 00:25:16.279
<v Speaker 3>experts are able to create a pathogen that is, you know,

428
00:25:16.359 --> 00:25:21.720
<v Speaker 3>exceptionally lethal. But you know, small groups, little small terrorist groups,

429
00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:24.079
<v Speaker 3>maybe even single individuals.

430
00:25:24.359 --> 00:25:26.160
<v Speaker 2>So you could diy Crisp or the plague.

431
00:25:26.279 --> 00:25:27.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, don't say it's so loudly though.

432
00:25:28.160 --> 00:25:30.359
<v Speaker 2>Never mind, don't do that. Also, I hope our phones

433
00:25:30.400 --> 00:25:32.440
<v Speaker 2>are eavesdropping, it's a fact.

434
00:25:32.440 --> 00:25:35.960
<v Speaker 3>And researching books and papers that I have an Internet history.

435
00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:39.480
<v Speaker 2>Oh, I bet you're on so many watch lists.

436
00:25:39.400 --> 00:25:44.400
<v Speaker 3>Looking up some really really frightening pathogens.

437
00:25:44.519 --> 00:25:46.480
<v Speaker 2>I mean I google a lot about like whale dicks

438
00:25:46.480 --> 00:25:49.279
<v Speaker 2>and stuff for this podcast, But yours are history is

439
00:25:49.480 --> 00:25:52.160
<v Speaker 2>way it's going to be way more suspicious than you.

440
00:25:53.480 --> 00:25:54.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, no doubt.

441
00:25:54.400 --> 00:25:58.920
<v Speaker 2>So we're looking at at essentially we're we're screwing up

442
00:25:58.920 --> 00:26:01.119
<v Speaker 2>the planet itself. And I mean a lot of species

443
00:26:01.160 --> 00:26:04.720
<v Speaker 2>are going extinct. Technology is moving so fast it can

444
00:26:04.759 --> 00:26:08.920
<v Speaker 2>be used probably more for bad than for good, or

445
00:26:08.920 --> 00:26:11.720
<v Speaker 2>at least they could outpace one could outpace the other.

446
00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:17.440
<v Speaker 3>As some as two philosophers Julian Sephlescun and ingmar Person,

447
00:26:18.039 --> 00:26:20.079
<v Speaker 3>who have written a bunch of papers together have pointed

448
00:26:20.079 --> 00:26:24.240
<v Speaker 3>out it tends to be a fact that it's just

449
00:26:24.319 --> 00:26:26.039
<v Speaker 3>easier to do harm than to do good.

450
00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:28.480
<v Speaker 2>You know what, settle in right now, get cozy for

451
00:26:28.599 --> 00:26:31.799
<v Speaker 2>something that will haunt the rest of your waking hours.

452
00:26:32.519 --> 00:26:35.640
<v Speaker 3>It's easier, it's easier to harm a hundred people than

453
00:26:35.720 --> 00:26:43.519
<v Speaker 3>to you know, benefit them to the same degree. So

454
00:26:43.640 --> 00:26:45.960
<v Speaker 3>I think technology is just kind of a big magnifying

455
00:26:46.000 --> 00:26:50.680
<v Speaker 3>glass and is just you know, it isn't it isn't

456
00:26:50.839 --> 00:26:55.960
<v Speaker 3>genuinely like a qualitatively new situation when like a single

457
00:26:55.960 --> 00:27:01.599
<v Speaker 3>individual has the has the power to wreak you know,

458
00:27:01.759 --> 00:27:06.640
<v Speaker 3>civilizational havoc. These technologies are seem to be empowering individuals

459
00:27:07.400 --> 00:27:11.279
<v Speaker 3>much more than the state. You know, there's a book

460
00:27:11.960 --> 00:27:14.720
<v Speaker 3>about this exact issue called The Future of Violence, and

461
00:27:14.880 --> 00:27:18.359
<v Speaker 3>they talk about they conjecture that there may be an

462
00:27:18.400 --> 00:27:21.880
<v Speaker 3>impending dissolution of the social contract and with a kind

463
00:27:21.920 --> 00:27:25.920
<v Speaker 3>of return to hobbesy and anarchy where there's just no

464
00:27:26.079 --> 00:27:28.119
<v Speaker 3>secure you know, the state is no longer able to

465
00:27:28.200 --> 00:27:32.839
<v Speaker 3>provide security because single individuals can harm huge numbers of

466
00:27:32.839 --> 00:27:34.880
<v Speaker 3>people in ways that are really difficult to detect and

467
00:27:34.920 --> 00:27:36.759
<v Speaker 3>also are difficult to prevent.

468
00:27:37.400 --> 00:27:40.720
<v Speaker 2>Ps. Thomas Hobbes was a philosopher from the sixteen hundreds,

469
00:27:40.720 --> 00:27:45.119
<v Speaker 2>and he held the core belief human beings are selfish creatures.

470
00:27:48.079 --> 00:27:51.000
<v Speaker 3>That's the idea behind the at least the Hobbsyan version

471
00:27:51.000 --> 00:27:51.960
<v Speaker 3>of social contract.

472
00:27:52.400 --> 00:27:55.599
<v Speaker 2>Is this also the logic behind doomsday bunkers, where you

473
00:27:55.680 --> 00:27:57.440
<v Speaker 2>just like, you get a bunch of d hydrate of

474
00:27:57.480 --> 00:28:01.920
<v Speaker 2>potatoes and you just like hitt at the underground pretty much. Yeah,

475
00:28:02.279 --> 00:28:05.079
<v Speaker 2>I mean, you're just like a piece. You all fight

476
00:28:05.160 --> 00:28:07.359
<v Speaker 2>it out up there. I'm gonna live in this bunker.

477
00:28:07.599 --> 00:28:10.599
<v Speaker 3>I haven't gotten to that point yet myself, okay, but

478
00:28:10.640 --> 00:28:14.119
<v Speaker 3>I haven't tempted at times just to stash a couple

479
00:28:14.119 --> 00:28:17.960
<v Speaker 3>extra bottles of wine or something, just in.

480
00:28:17.960 --> 00:28:20.000
<v Speaker 2>Case some swords maybe.

481
00:28:20.240 --> 00:28:24.079
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

482
00:28:24.119 --> 00:28:27.200
<v Speaker 2>So this is like, if you have one million pretty

483
00:28:27.279 --> 00:28:30.160
<v Speaker 2>chill people, you just need one who will off the

484
00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:32.920
<v Speaker 2>other million. Is that kind of what we're talking about?

485
00:28:33.039 --> 00:28:36.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Or you could look at from a

486
00:28:36.200 --> 00:28:38.200
<v Speaker 3>different perspective and say, imagine you have out of a

487
00:28:38.240 --> 00:28:40.559
<v Speaker 3>population of seven point six billion, you've got one million

488
00:28:42.559 --> 00:28:46.599
<v Speaker 3>malicious agents who have omni sidle tendencies and would actually

489
00:28:46.680 --> 00:28:49.960
<v Speaker 3>like to destroy humanity if they could. Is, by the way,

490
00:28:49.960 --> 00:28:52.200
<v Speaker 3>a topic I've also written about and there are those

491
00:28:52.200 --> 00:28:53.480
<v Speaker 3>people out there. For sure.

492
00:28:53.720 --> 00:28:55.559
<v Speaker 2>I've never heard the word omni sidle, but.

493
00:28:55.559 --> 00:28:57.440
<v Speaker 3>Like, yeah, it's a lovely term.

494
00:28:57.839 --> 00:29:01.079
<v Speaker 2>Like this is my personal brand. I'm really into omnoside.

495
00:29:01.359 --> 00:29:05.799
<v Speaker 2>It's a fun fact. Omnicidal means kill everything and everyone

496
00:29:06.039 --> 00:29:10.079
<v Speaker 2>until the extinction of our species. It's very ott, very

497
00:29:10.119 --> 00:29:14.119
<v Speaker 2>over the top, very extra, very diva, very drama. Needs

498
00:29:14.119 --> 00:29:14.960
<v Speaker 2>to just not.

499
00:29:15.559 --> 00:29:19.279
<v Speaker 3>So you can imagine like one million, uh genuinely malicious

500
00:29:19.279 --> 00:29:21.440
<v Speaker 3>agents and set and then ask like, what is the

501
00:29:21.440 --> 00:29:24.039
<v Speaker 3>probability that any one of them will gain access to

502
00:29:24.079 --> 00:29:28.880
<v Speaker 3>the relevant technology, which increasingly that's possible, you know, is

503
00:29:29.119 --> 00:29:31.920
<v Speaker 3>to set up a biohacker lab. You know, you only

504
00:29:31.960 --> 00:29:32.960
<v Speaker 3>need a few in her bucks.

505
00:29:33.480 --> 00:29:36.759
<v Speaker 2>Oh part in my despair grunting.

506
00:29:37.079 --> 00:29:44.759
<v Speaker 3>John Soto's even even hypothesizes that the this distribution of

507
00:29:44.920 --> 00:29:49.119
<v Speaker 3>unprecedented destructive capabilities could constitute the great a great filter

508
00:29:49.680 --> 00:29:53.000
<v Speaker 3>that explains, uh, you know, some probability bottleneck that all

509
00:29:53.039 --> 00:29:56.319
<v Speaker 3>civilizations have to go through and almost none of them

510
00:29:56.359 --> 00:29:59.000
<v Speaker 3>make it out. Well, that's why we don't observe aliens

511
00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:02.119
<v Speaker 3>wandering through the U niverse. The universe seems to be

512
00:30:04.640 --> 00:30:08.000
<v Speaker 3>vacant in terms of with respect to life, so they

513
00:30:08.039 --> 00:30:08.680
<v Speaker 3>all use that.

514
00:30:08.759 --> 00:30:11.839
<v Speaker 2>They all have like teenage gamers trying to kill each

515
00:30:11.880 --> 00:30:13.960
<v Speaker 2>other and they're on their own planet and they're like

516
00:30:15.559 --> 00:30:16.519
<v Speaker 2>and then they all die.

517
00:30:16.599 --> 00:30:20.799
<v Speaker 4>Also, oh god, you you really should have co authored

518
00:30:21.319 --> 00:30:23.720
<v Speaker 4>because that would have been a nice flare at some.

519
00:30:23.720 --> 00:30:27.319
<v Speaker 2>Point, just alien in cells with twelve dicks being like,

520
00:30:27.359 --> 00:30:29.720
<v Speaker 2>I can't even get laid at all. I'm gonna kill everyone,

521
00:30:30.359 --> 00:30:31.319
<v Speaker 2>Holy smokes.

522
00:30:31.359 --> 00:30:35.400
<v Speaker 3>Okay, okay, so the last one. Sorry for delaying.

523
00:30:35.480 --> 00:30:37.079
<v Speaker 2>I have too many questions. I'm so sorry.

524
00:30:37.160 --> 00:30:40.599
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, no, no, no, it's fine. The last one I mentioned

525
00:30:40.680 --> 00:30:43.480
<v Speaker 3>before that is a bit more speculative, but I would

526
00:30:43.519 --> 00:30:45.119
<v Speaker 3>say it's machine super intelligence.

527
00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:48.839
<v Speaker 2>Oh boy, we're talking ais AI. Okay, oh yeah, we

528
00:30:48.920 --> 00:30:53.599
<v Speaker 2>got some artificial intelligence. It's gonna kill us all. Yeah.

529
00:30:53.640 --> 00:30:56.359
<v Speaker 3>So one of the biggest myths is that the AI

530
00:30:57.599 --> 00:31:02.240
<v Speaker 3>system that is dangerous is one that has some kind

531
00:31:02.240 --> 00:31:11.400
<v Speaker 3>of malicious, malevolent, malign intentions. And while it's possible that

532
00:31:11.519 --> 00:31:16.519
<v Speaker 3>a super intelligent machine could be designed in such a

533
00:31:16.519 --> 00:31:21.359
<v Speaker 3>way or could for some reason acquire like you know,

534
00:31:21.400 --> 00:31:24.519
<v Speaker 3>I kind of must kill humans value system.

535
00:31:24.759 --> 00:31:27.000
<v Speaker 2>I love by the way, that if there's a malicious AI,

536
00:31:27.599 --> 00:31:29.880
<v Speaker 2>it can kill us all, but it can't make a

537
00:31:29.920 --> 00:31:32.519
<v Speaker 2>complete sentence. Do you know what I'm meaning? Like, it

538
00:31:32.559 --> 00:31:35.680
<v Speaker 2>can't great to make your acquaintance, I must kill all

539
00:31:35.720 --> 00:31:38.519
<v Speaker 2>of the humans in existence. It can only use an

540
00:31:38.559 --> 00:31:42.640
<v Speaker 2>economy of words. That's like, yeah, very simple, but it's

541
00:31:42.799 --> 00:31:44.960
<v Speaker 2>very sophisticated that it could kill us all. You can't

542
00:31:45.000 --> 00:31:47.440
<v Speaker 2>just can't. I can't learn, can't learn the language, so

543
00:31:47.559 --> 00:31:48.480
<v Speaker 2>must kill humans.

544
00:31:48.680 --> 00:31:52.559
<v Speaker 3>Yeah yeah, and the voice too, the better synthesized voices

545
00:31:52.599 --> 00:31:57.079
<v Speaker 3>by the time. So actually the real danger is that

546
00:31:57.119 --> 00:32:02.680
<v Speaker 3>it exceeds us It exceeds the best possible that any

547
00:32:02.680 --> 00:32:06.519
<v Speaker 3>member of our species could possibly achieve, and also that

548
00:32:06.640 --> 00:32:13.559
<v Speaker 3>it's its value system is not sufficiently well lined with ours.

549
00:32:12.839 --> 00:32:18.960
<v Speaker 3>It makes for a much less compelling movie, you know, storyline.

550
00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:22.920
<v Speaker 3>But this is actually the real substantive concern that people have.

551
00:32:23.119 --> 00:32:26.680
<v Speaker 3>You know, computers tend to process information way faster than humans,

552
00:32:27.000 --> 00:32:30.839
<v Speaker 3>a million plus times as fast. Basically the outside world

553
00:32:30.920 --> 00:32:31.880
<v Speaker 3>to it looks frozen.

554
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:36.519
<v Speaker 2>And that's not even without that's even without quantum computing.

555
00:32:36.880 --> 00:32:38.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah yeah, yeah, I'm just talking.

556
00:32:38.240 --> 00:32:40.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you're just talking about what we got, which, compared

557
00:32:40.359 --> 00:32:44.599
<v Speaker 2>to quantum computing, is so slow. Yeah, oh boy. Quantum computing,

558
00:32:44.599 --> 00:32:48.680
<v Speaker 2>by the bye, relies on an atoms superposition of being

559
00:32:48.799 --> 00:32:52.160
<v Speaker 2>essentially two things at once instead of our current computers,

560
00:32:52.200 --> 00:32:55.599
<v Speaker 2>which rely on transistors to make bits that represent ones

561
00:32:55.680 --> 00:32:58.920
<v Speaker 2>and zeros. Anyway, that's as nutshell as it gets and

562
00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:01.359
<v Speaker 2>probably a little bit wrong. But how much faster is

563
00:33:01.440 --> 00:33:06.880
<v Speaker 2>quantum computing? Some say one hundred million times faster than

564
00:33:06.880 --> 00:33:07.559
<v Speaker 2>your laptop.

565
00:33:07.799 --> 00:33:11.240
<v Speaker 3>It's a lot, And so I like ran the numbers

566
00:33:11.240 --> 00:33:14.640
<v Speaker 3>that I think the average PhD program in the US

567
00:33:14.720 --> 00:33:17.680
<v Speaker 3>is like something like eight point two years. And that

568
00:33:18.680 --> 00:33:21.240
<v Speaker 3>you know, if a computer's process information million times faster,

569
00:33:21.319 --> 00:33:25.400
<v Speaker 3>that means that you know, a super intelligent machine or

570
00:33:25.440 --> 00:33:30.680
<v Speaker 3>just just a generally artificially general artificial general intelligence could

571
00:33:30.799 --> 00:33:33.799
<v Speaker 3>earn a PhD in something like four point three minutes

572
00:33:34.039 --> 00:33:34.640
<v Speaker 3>or something.

573
00:33:34.559 --> 00:33:36.400
<v Speaker 2>So so much cheaper.

574
00:33:36.680 --> 00:33:43.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so that's on the one hand. Second, there's something

575
00:33:43.839 --> 00:33:48.559
<v Speaker 3>called the instrumental convergence thesis, and this is just the

576
00:33:48.640 --> 00:33:53.319
<v Speaker 3>idea that for a wide range of final goals, there

577
00:33:53.359 --> 00:33:56.799
<v Speaker 3>are some very predictable intermediary goals that the system is

578
00:33:56.839 --> 00:33:58.119
<v Speaker 3>going to pursue.

579
00:33:58.400 --> 00:34:01.440
<v Speaker 2>So essentially, if you have goals, there are some basic

580
00:34:01.480 --> 00:34:03.759
<v Speaker 2>things that you have to do to achieve them, Like

581
00:34:04.079 --> 00:34:06.440
<v Speaker 2>if you wanted to be a musician, Phil says, you

582
00:34:06.480 --> 00:34:10.199
<v Speaker 2>would have to get good at, say, shredding on guitar.

583
00:34:10.639 --> 00:34:14.280
<v Speaker 2>You would have to obtain the guitar. And if your

584
00:34:14.280 --> 00:34:17.039
<v Speaker 2>stepdad tried to kill your dreams, you would resist him

585
00:34:17.039 --> 00:34:19.119
<v Speaker 2>and tell him fuck you, Doug, no one likes your

586
00:34:19.119 --> 00:34:21.920
<v Speaker 2>coleslaw or your mustache, and then you'd keep practicing those

587
00:34:21.920 --> 00:34:23.440
<v Speaker 2>hot licks. Same with AI.

588
00:34:23.960 --> 00:34:27.559
<v Speaker 3>It's going to first of all, might look around and think,

589
00:34:29.039 --> 00:34:31.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, these humans they could turn, could try to

590
00:34:32.119 --> 00:34:35.559
<v Speaker 3>shut me down, so it's maybe in my interest to

591
00:34:35.800 --> 00:34:37.519
<v Speaker 3>eliminate them.

592
00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:40.599
<v Speaker 2>I know that you and Frank were planning to disconnect me,

593
00:34:42.119 --> 00:34:44.800
<v Speaker 2>and I'm afraid that's something I cannot allow to happen.

594
00:34:44.840 --> 00:34:47.440
<v Speaker 3>Another thing is, you know humans are made out of

595
00:34:47.519 --> 00:34:54.039
<v Speaker 3>conveniently located atoms. So it's, as one researcher famously put it,

596
00:34:54.239 --> 00:34:58.800
<v Speaker 3>eliezer Cawska. You know, it's not to paraphrase him, it's

597
00:34:58.800 --> 00:35:02.079
<v Speaker 3>not that the a I hastes you or loves you.

598
00:35:02.760 --> 00:35:05.079
<v Speaker 3>It just notices that you're made out of material that

599
00:35:05.119 --> 00:35:07.119
<v Speaker 3>it can use for something else. So kind of the

600
00:35:07.119 --> 00:35:10.559
<v Speaker 3>the analogy here, this is another kind of uh, it's

601
00:35:10.599 --> 00:35:15.440
<v Speaker 3>becoming a cliche. A bit is you know when humans go,

602
00:35:16.440 --> 00:35:20.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, raise forests to build a suburban neighborhood. You know,

603
00:35:21.000 --> 00:35:25.039
<v Speaker 3>the result is sometimes like a you know, pretty devastating

604
00:35:25.079 --> 00:35:30.440
<v Speaker 3>ant genocide. And it's not that the It's not that

605
00:35:30.480 --> 00:35:32.519
<v Speaker 3>we have any ill will towards it's not like the

606
00:35:32.639 --> 00:35:36.360
<v Speaker 3>it's not that we're malevolent towards the ants. It's simply

607
00:35:36.440 --> 00:35:40.119
<v Speaker 3>that we're much smarter and therefore can manipulate the world

608
00:35:40.199 --> 00:35:45.400
<v Speaker 3>in ways that the ant can't even conceive. And also,

609
00:35:45.440 --> 00:35:47.679
<v Speaker 3>we just have different values. Our value systems are not

610
00:35:47.760 --> 00:35:51.280
<v Speaker 3>properly aligned. So if you think about this analogy, you know,

611
00:35:51.360 --> 00:35:54.079
<v Speaker 3>with us as the ants going about our business, we

612
00:35:54.119 --> 00:35:55.679
<v Speaker 3>have our own values. We want to build these little

613
00:35:55.719 --> 00:35:59.440
<v Speaker 3>colonies underground, and then the super intelligent system that we

614
00:35:59.480 --> 00:36:02.960
<v Speaker 3>create ends up having values that don't perfectly align with

615
00:36:03.199 --> 00:36:06.599
<v Speaker 3>our colony building values. Then you know, it may just

616
00:36:07.199 --> 00:36:10.519
<v Speaker 3>raise the forest and in pursuit of its own you know,

617
00:36:10.559 --> 00:36:16.119
<v Speaker 3>particular aims with the with the consequence being that we

618
00:36:16.199 --> 00:36:16.760
<v Speaker 3>all perish.

619
00:36:17.079 --> 00:36:20.000
<v Speaker 2>And the next thing, you know, we fucked once again.

620
00:36:20.239 --> 00:36:23.360
<v Speaker 2>Come to the conclusion end of the flow chart, We're fucked.

621
00:36:24.280 --> 00:36:26.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that reminds me a lot of there was a

622
00:36:27.320 --> 00:36:29.760
<v Speaker 3>I think I probably gonna forget the guy's name but

623
00:36:29.800 --> 00:36:32.639
<v Speaker 3>there was a geophysicist, oh, Brad Werner I think his name.

624
00:36:32.719 --> 00:36:36.199
<v Speaker 3>He presented, gave a presentation that was titled is Earth Fucked?

625
00:36:37.320 --> 00:36:40.760
<v Speaker 3>And he got he got a fair amount of press

626
00:36:40.960 --> 00:36:42.800
<v Speaker 3>for it. And as he explained to someone I think

627
00:36:42.840 --> 00:36:48.000
<v Speaker 3>from Lake his moto or something that he his answer

628
00:36:48.079 --> 00:36:49.199
<v Speaker 3>is more or less.

629
00:36:49.000 --> 00:36:54.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's just a shrug. Yeah, so a single slide.

630
00:36:54.960 --> 00:36:55.199
<v Speaker 3>Yep.

631
00:36:55.440 --> 00:36:57.800
<v Speaker 2>You're like, wow, that was a forty five second presentation.

632
00:36:57.920 --> 00:37:00.639
<v Speaker 2>He's done, He's like, and there's CRSAL in the lobby,

633
00:37:00.719 --> 00:37:05.000
<v Speaker 2>so bye bye. Now, how do you think the world

634
00:37:05.079 --> 00:37:07.000
<v Speaker 2>is going to end? If you had to put your

635
00:37:07.039 --> 00:37:10.199
<v Speaker 2>money on it? Not that money matters when the apocalypse

636
00:37:10.239 --> 00:37:14.599
<v Speaker 2>is not. But if someone's like, mister trus yeah, put

637
00:37:14.639 --> 00:37:19.400
<v Speaker 2>your money on the end, what is it?

638
00:37:20.480 --> 00:37:27.239
<v Speaker 3>I think it would be imprudent to specify one particular scenario.

639
00:37:27.639 --> 00:37:28.519
<v Speaker 2>You're like all of them.

640
00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:32.320
<v Speaker 3>I have yet to discover a particularly good counter argument

641
00:37:33.000 --> 00:37:35.960
<v Speaker 3>to the issue that we're talking about before.

642
00:37:36.519 --> 00:37:40.840
<v Speaker 2>So in regard to the democratization of destructive technology, that little.

643
00:37:40.559 --> 00:37:43.400
<v Speaker 3>Thing if there is a technology, you know, as some

644
00:37:43.400 --> 00:37:46.599
<v Speaker 3>people have said, if everybody around the world had an

645
00:37:46.639 --> 00:37:49.159
<v Speaker 3>app on their phone that where they could open it

646
00:37:49.239 --> 00:37:51.840
<v Speaker 3>up and push a button that would destroy the world.

647
00:37:52.159 --> 00:37:54.880
<v Speaker 3>Who thinks the world would last for more than two seconds?

648
00:37:55.000 --> 00:37:57.800
<v Speaker 2>Oh, it would be over. There would be someone who

649
00:37:58.199 --> 00:38:02.039
<v Speaker 2>got rejected for a date. We'd be smoked.

650
00:38:02.639 --> 00:38:06.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's it's implausible to think we would last for

651
00:38:06.440 --> 00:38:07.519
<v Speaker 3>a minute, and it would.

652
00:38:07.559 --> 00:38:09.920
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry that it would. One million percent be a

653
00:38:10.039 --> 00:38:13.239
<v Speaker 2>dude between the ages of like sixteen and twenty three

654
00:38:13.320 --> 00:38:17.199
<v Speaker 2>that did it, like one hundred percent, someone's prom date,

655
00:38:17.480 --> 00:38:21.039
<v Speaker 2>someone's girlfriend left them for someone who does more CrossFit,

656
00:38:21.119 --> 00:38:22.079
<v Speaker 2>and then the world is over.

657
00:38:23.920 --> 00:38:29.239
<v Speaker 3>This is another topic that has been discussed among the

658
00:38:29.280 --> 00:38:34.239
<v Speaker 3>relevant scholars. Basically, the argument is that you know, a

659
00:38:34.239 --> 00:38:38.840
<v Speaker 3>a milieu in which there are extremely powerful technologies and

660
00:38:38.880 --> 00:38:42.920
<v Speaker 3>then there are there's this segment of humanity that is

661
00:38:42.920 --> 00:38:48.159
<v Speaker 3>suffering from testosterone poisoning and uh, you know that's I've

662
00:38:48.199 --> 00:38:53.519
<v Speaker 3>written about this as well. I'm very worried about it. Yeah,

663
00:38:53.559 --> 00:38:55.199
<v Speaker 3>it's what.

664
00:38:55.119 --> 00:38:56.880
<v Speaker 2>Can we do for the What can we do for

665
00:38:56.920 --> 00:39:01.360
<v Speaker 2>the dudes? Like if the dude were a stray animal,

666
00:39:01.760 --> 00:39:07.079
<v Speaker 2>say a wounded raccoon, are a neglected rabbit dog, what

667
00:39:07.159 --> 00:39:10.599
<v Speaker 2>could we do to help fix them so they don't

668
00:39:10.679 --> 00:39:12.760
<v Speaker 2>kill us in the face.

669
00:39:13.800 --> 00:39:19.000
<v Speaker 3>I you know, I don't have a good answer. I

670
00:39:19.119 --> 00:39:22.679
<v Speaker 3>mentioned before the Philosopher's Julians have leskud In more person

671
00:39:23.039 --> 00:39:27.440
<v Speaker 3>who wrote a really interesting book from twenty twelve called

672
00:39:27.480 --> 00:39:32.000
<v Speaker 3>to Unfit for the Future where they talked about they

673
00:39:32.199 --> 00:39:35.800
<v Speaker 3>go into immense detail about the possibility of using moral

674
00:39:35.800 --> 00:39:36.679
<v Speaker 3>bio enhancements.

675
00:39:37.000 --> 00:39:40.960
<v Speaker 2>Moral bio enhancements these are a thing. I feel like

676
00:39:41.039 --> 00:39:42.960
<v Speaker 2>coffee is already kind of one of them.

677
00:39:43.639 --> 00:39:47.079
<v Speaker 3>These would be biomedical interventions that would aim to enhance

678
00:39:47.199 --> 00:39:53.960
<v Speaker 3>our empathy, sympathetic concern. And it's really controversial. It's person

679
00:39:54.000 --> 00:39:57.840
<v Speaker 3>engineering type stuff. So they argue on the one hand

680
00:39:57.840 --> 00:40:02.320
<v Speaker 3>that if we remain as we are moving into the future, uh,

681
00:40:02.880 --> 00:40:06.480
<v Speaker 3>we're the outcome is going to be bad. So so

682
00:40:06.880 --> 00:40:12.920
<v Speaker 3>we're fucked. So that is what that is what warrants

683
00:40:13.400 --> 00:40:17.840
<v Speaker 3>I believe they would would say they're considering a possibility

684
00:40:17.840 --> 00:40:23.239
<v Speaker 3>that's really quite radical. Anyways, The point is that you know,

685
00:40:23.280 --> 00:40:27.360
<v Speaker 3>statistically speaking, women tend to do better than men with

686
00:40:27.400 --> 00:40:32.000
<v Speaker 3>respect to empathy and sympathy and and you know moral

687
00:40:33.400 --> 00:40:37.039
<v Speaker 3>characteristics like that. So they have this really great line

688
00:40:37.679 --> 00:40:41.320
<v Speaker 3>where they say, you know what may need to happen

689
00:40:41.360 --> 00:40:44.480
<v Speaker 3>is that we make men more like women, or rather

690
00:40:45.000 --> 00:40:47.159
<v Speaker 3>men more like men who are like women. There are

691
00:40:47.199 --> 00:40:53.400
<v Speaker 3>definitely people in this field who takes seriously the potentially

692
00:40:54.320 --> 00:41:01.840
<v Speaker 3>quite combustible mixture of you know, just toxic masculinity and

693
00:41:02.599 --> 00:41:04.320
<v Speaker 3>dual use technologies.

694
00:41:03.920 --> 00:41:07.760
<v Speaker 2>Oh, that's such a that's a that's like a toddler

695
00:41:07.800 --> 00:41:09.920
<v Speaker 2>with a machine gun kind of I don't.

696
00:41:09.679 --> 00:41:13.480
<v Speaker 3>Know what to say. Maybe maybe put the men on

697
00:41:13.559 --> 00:41:18.440
<v Speaker 3>Mars or something. You just sequester them over there and

698
00:41:18.480 --> 00:41:23.159
<v Speaker 3>then oxytocin supplements. Maybe oxytocin is one of the main

699
00:41:24.519 --> 00:41:30.360
<v Speaker 3>the possibilities that Sevelescu and Person discuss. But unfortunately oxytocin

700
00:41:30.400 --> 00:41:36.199
<v Speaker 3>the the effects are limited to racial in groups according

701
00:41:36.199 --> 00:41:38.239
<v Speaker 3>to a whole bunch of studies, So you do get

702
00:41:38.800 --> 00:41:43.599
<v Speaker 3>more empathetic to other humans, but it doesn't cope beyond

703
00:41:43.639 --> 00:41:45.679
<v Speaker 3>your race, at least in the studies.

704
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:49.679
<v Speaker 2>So the hugest problem we have pretty much.

705
00:41:49.840 --> 00:41:52.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So they do mention at some point that this is,

706
00:41:52.519 --> 00:41:56.800
<v Speaker 3>let's say, not a trivial problem with you know, because

707
00:41:56.800 --> 00:41:58.920
<v Speaker 3>I mean, we have fluoride in the in the public

708
00:41:59.000 --> 00:42:05.239
<v Speaker 3>drinking water for healthier I dentician as, we vaccinate, vaccinate,

709
00:42:05.480 --> 00:42:09.719
<v Speaker 3>and yeah, so there's a kind of perspective where I

710
00:42:09.760 --> 00:42:12.320
<v Speaker 3>don't know, maybe It's not totally crazy that you'd put

711
00:42:12.360 --> 00:42:15.960
<v Speaker 3>some oxytocin in the the public drinking.

712
00:42:15.679 --> 00:42:18.360
<v Speaker 2>Water, the mountain dew. Just put it in the monster

713
00:42:18.480 --> 00:42:20.000
<v Speaker 2>energy because I'd be like, those are the people who

714
00:42:20.000 --> 00:42:20.320
<v Speaker 2>need it.

715
00:42:22.000 --> 00:42:25.800
<v Speaker 3>I really like the more targeted approach. That's much more clever.

716
00:42:26.239 --> 00:42:29.320
<v Speaker 2>How often do you think about the apocalypse? Is it

717
00:42:29.440 --> 00:42:31.519
<v Speaker 2>only when you're working or is it when you're driving

718
00:42:31.559 --> 00:42:35.559
<v Speaker 2>around when a new Mariah Carey single drops when you

719
00:42:36.119 --> 00:42:42.960
<v Speaker 2>are I don't know, Okay, a girl can dream. I'm

720
00:42:43.000 --> 00:42:45.639
<v Speaker 2>trying to think of the good things in life as

721
00:42:45.760 --> 00:42:48.199
<v Speaker 2>faint and I guess the subconscious effect that a good

722
00:42:48.239 --> 00:42:51.599
<v Speaker 2>publicist would have. Mariah Carey does have a new album

723
00:42:51.639 --> 00:42:55.039
<v Speaker 2>coming out. It drops November sixteenth, people, and fittingly for

724
00:42:55.079 --> 00:43:02.800
<v Speaker 2>this episode, it's titled Caution. Also does Phil ever get bummed?

725
00:43:03.519 --> 00:43:06.239
<v Speaker 2>But like, do you think about it on a daily basis? Like,

726
00:43:06.559 --> 00:43:09.719
<v Speaker 2>maybe I shouldn't sweat this because we're about to annally

727
00:43:09.800 --> 00:43:10.760
<v Speaker 2>annihilate the planet.

728
00:43:14.000 --> 00:43:18.360
<v Speaker 3>So if you take seriously some of the probability estimates

729
00:43:18.719 --> 00:43:26.599
<v Speaker 3>that scholars have proposed, Bostrom has has a few Toby ords,

730
00:43:27.239 --> 00:43:29.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, has suggested that we maybe have a one

731
00:43:29.400 --> 00:43:31.679
<v Speaker 3>and six chance of surviving the century.

732
00:43:31.519 --> 00:43:36.920
<v Speaker 2>One in six chance of surviving the next eighty two years. Yeah,

733
00:43:37.000 --> 00:43:39.239
<v Speaker 2>are you gonna have kids? You have kids? No, Okay,

734
00:43:39.280 --> 00:43:41.920
<v Speaker 2>are you gonna have kids? Do you think or is

735
00:43:41.960 --> 00:43:46.519
<v Speaker 2>that because you're like, we're all gonna die anyway? Because

736
00:43:46.519 --> 00:43:49.000
<v Speaker 2>I've often thought that, I'm like, never when there's too

737
00:43:49.000 --> 00:43:51.000
<v Speaker 2>many of us, we're growing exponentially. No one needs more

738
00:43:51.039 --> 00:43:53.880
<v Speaker 2>of me. One of me is plenty, and also one

739
00:43:53.880 --> 00:43:56.599
<v Speaker 2>of me is enough for the world, and then they're

740
00:43:56.639 --> 00:43:58.320
<v Speaker 2>just gonna die. But how do you what do you

741
00:43:58.320 --> 00:44:00.519
<v Speaker 2>how do you approach those kind of like decisions.

742
00:44:01.559 --> 00:44:04.639
<v Speaker 3>There's a philosophical component and then like a kind of

743
00:44:04.679 --> 00:44:09.559
<v Speaker 3>empirical component. Empirically, I think I could imagine a version

744
00:44:09.599 --> 00:44:14.519
<v Speaker 3>of the world that is worth living in, you know where,

745
00:44:14.559 --> 00:44:19.280
<v Speaker 3>like you, people take science seriously. You know, it could

746
00:44:19.320 --> 00:44:23.559
<v Speaker 3>be the case that climate change is right now not

747
00:44:23.880 --> 00:44:26.440
<v Speaker 3>a concern at all because people listen to scientists back

748
00:44:26.440 --> 00:44:30.239
<v Speaker 3>in the nineties, et cetera, and then took actions just

749
00:44:30.280 --> 00:44:32.679
<v Speaker 3>like we did with the with the ozone hole. Yeah,

750
00:44:32.679 --> 00:44:37.280
<v Speaker 3>there's a sense in which the world could be significantly

751
00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:42.800
<v Speaker 3>more livable than it is. Unfortunately, we're in a world

752
00:44:43.199 --> 00:44:46.159
<v Speaker 3>you know where I mean, I don't I can only

753
00:44:46.199 --> 00:44:48.480
<v Speaker 3>assume what your personal politics are. But you know, Donald

754
00:44:48.519 --> 00:44:54.239
<v Speaker 3>Trump is got elected even after the Trump tape, and

755
00:44:54.760 --> 00:44:58.400
<v Speaker 3>you know, et cetera. I mean, that's an unfortunate world.

756
00:44:59.079 --> 00:45:02.519
<v Speaker 3>To put it crudely, it's a shitty world. So I'm

757
00:45:02.519 --> 00:45:05.159
<v Speaker 3>dis And maybe another way to put this is I

758
00:45:05.199 --> 00:45:08.760
<v Speaker 3>have I'm deeply disappointed in my species forgot doing better.

759
00:45:09.519 --> 00:45:12.719
<v Speaker 3>And so then there's a philosophical issue and this gets

760
00:45:12.760 --> 00:45:17.039
<v Speaker 3>to uh an idea referred to as anti natalism.

761
00:45:17.519 --> 00:45:19.280
<v Speaker 2>Oh okay, Oh there's a word for it.

762
00:45:19.880 --> 00:45:20.039
<v Speaker 4>Oh.

763
00:45:20.079 --> 00:45:23.519
<v Speaker 2>I thought it was just spinsterism. It was an old

764
00:45:23.559 --> 00:45:25.800
<v Speaker 2>weird aunt with no kids. Is I don't know there

765
00:45:25.840 --> 00:45:27.079
<v Speaker 2>was an anti natalism.

766
00:45:27.880 --> 00:45:31.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so it's a it's a pretty fascinating view. Uh.

767
00:45:32.119 --> 00:45:35.280
<v Speaker 3>It's it's like Arthur Schopenhower is kind of famously an

768
00:45:35.280 --> 00:45:39.440
<v Speaker 3>anti natalist who believe and his argument was that life

769
00:45:39.480 --> 00:45:40.519
<v Speaker 3>is just terrible.

770
00:45:40.599 --> 00:45:44.000
<v Speaker 2>You know, life is duca, So duka translates from the

771
00:45:44.079 --> 00:45:48.719
<v Speaker 2>Sanskrit and it means suffering pain or stress. So life

772
00:45:48.760 --> 00:45:52.039
<v Speaker 2>is duka is a Buddhist phrase that means that life

773
00:45:52.079 --> 00:45:56.400
<v Speaker 2>is kind of unsatisfactory and painful. Life just kind of sucks. Now,

774
00:45:56.480 --> 00:45:59.400
<v Speaker 2>in all transparency, when phil said life is duka. I

775
00:45:59.440 --> 00:46:03.159
<v Speaker 2>thought he meant douchie, which is a casual term for pooh.

776
00:46:03.320 --> 00:46:05.679
<v Speaker 2>But he also said that some argue that the most

777
00:46:05.719 --> 00:46:08.719
<v Speaker 2>compassionate thing you can do is not bring a child

778
00:46:08.719 --> 00:46:11.480
<v Speaker 2>into the world because it's hard. It's just hard to live,

779
00:46:11.519 --> 00:46:13.760
<v Speaker 2>it's hard to be a person. But a lot of

780
00:46:13.760 --> 00:46:16.519
<v Speaker 2>this probably depends on your own outlook on life and

781
00:46:16.559 --> 00:46:19.280
<v Speaker 2>how much you enjoy it. I do not enjoy most

782
00:46:19.320 --> 00:46:22.280
<v Speaker 2>Italian food, to a lot of people's shock and disgust

783
00:46:22.320 --> 00:46:25.039
<v Speaker 2>of me. But Ergo I would never bring someone to

784
00:46:25.079 --> 00:46:27.880
<v Speaker 2>buka tobebbo as a treat. However, some people love it.

785
00:46:27.960 --> 00:46:31.719
<v Speaker 2>They would definitely invite others to a spaghetti fest. Now,

786
00:46:31.880 --> 00:46:35.880
<v Speaker 2>from an evolutionary standpoint, some scientists think it's better for

787
00:46:35.920 --> 00:46:39.639
<v Speaker 2>a species not to fully grasp the pain of existence.

788
00:46:40.239 --> 00:46:43.639
<v Speaker 3>Thomas Metzinger and another philosopher has talked about how, you know,

789
00:46:43.679 --> 00:46:49.800
<v Speaker 3>evolutionarily speaking, we probably would not have been selected tendencies

790
00:46:49.840 --> 00:46:54.440
<v Speaker 3>to recognize the extent of harm in our life. Those

791
00:46:54.440 --> 00:46:57.239
<v Speaker 3>tendencies would be selected against because that's not really good.

792
00:46:57.119 --> 00:47:02.559
<v Speaker 2>For right, for it on right, You're like, this is terrible,

793
00:47:02.559 --> 00:47:03.239
<v Speaker 2>that's macwormous.

794
00:47:03.760 --> 00:47:06.719
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, exactly, so, he says it's always a harm to

795
00:47:06.800 --> 00:47:09.920
<v Speaker 3>bring a human into the world because, yeah, because you're

796
00:47:09.920 --> 00:47:12.079
<v Speaker 3>all that human's sure they're gonna have some good experiences,

797
00:47:12.119 --> 00:47:14.159
<v Speaker 3>they're also going to have bad experiences, whereas a person

798
00:47:14.159 --> 00:47:16.719
<v Speaker 3>who doesn't exist isn't going to miss those good experiences.

799
00:47:17.039 --> 00:47:19.760
<v Speaker 3>But is you know, it is good that that individual

800
00:47:19.880 --> 00:47:22.440
<v Speaker 3>is not experiencing the bad stuff.

801
00:47:22.519 --> 00:47:25.199
<v Speaker 2>If you had a time frame that you thought the

802
00:47:25.239 --> 00:47:28.719
<v Speaker 2>apocalypse maybe were to visit us kind of like a

803
00:47:28.760 --> 00:47:32.320
<v Speaker 2>doom fairy, when do you think that might happen. I'm

804
00:47:32.360 --> 00:47:34.119
<v Speaker 2>just trying to figure out, like, do I buy the

805
00:47:34.159 --> 00:47:37.679
<v Speaker 2>extra protection plan with the electronics? How much do I

806
00:47:37.719 --> 00:47:38.840
<v Speaker 2>invest in my retirement.

807
00:47:39.320 --> 00:47:42.840
<v Speaker 3>This is a general issue that we've returned to several times.

808
00:47:42.960 --> 00:47:46.199
<v Speaker 3>I'm so sorry, No, no, it's fine. I just don't

809
00:47:47.159 --> 00:47:50.920
<v Speaker 3>have a good sense objectively. I mean, you can you know,

810
00:47:52.440 --> 00:47:54.960
<v Speaker 3>we know that, you know, a huge asteroid that could

811
00:47:55.000 --> 00:47:58.000
<v Speaker 3>kill our species strikes Earth every four hundred million years

812
00:47:58.079 --> 00:48:01.679
<v Speaker 3>or something, or four hundred thousand years. Maybe a super

813
00:48:01.760 --> 00:48:05.760
<v Speaker 3>volcanic or a super volcano erupts every fifty thousand or so.

814
00:48:07.639 --> 00:48:10.920
<v Speaker 3>The last one, well two super volcanic co ruptions ago

815
00:48:11.079 --> 00:48:14.039
<v Speaker 3>was the Toba catastrophe. That might have resulted in the

816
00:48:14.079 --> 00:48:18.480
<v Speaker 3>population bottleneck of maybe a thousand humans, So we almost

817
00:48:18.519 --> 00:48:19.840
<v Speaker 3>went extinct to oh, we're.

818
00:48:19.760 --> 00:48:23.159
<v Speaker 2>So close with those one thousand. Must have been so horny.

819
00:48:23.679 --> 00:48:25.559
<v Speaker 2>Oh they must have been like you guys, we got

820
00:48:25.599 --> 00:48:28.280
<v Speaker 2>work to do. So, I mean we could have a

821
00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:30.840
<v Speaker 2>we could have Yellowstone could just pop off, and then

822
00:48:30.880 --> 00:48:32.159
<v Speaker 2>there could be twelve of us left.

823
00:48:32.840 --> 00:48:34.960
<v Speaker 3>That is a freighting possibility.

824
00:48:35.079 --> 00:48:38.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, So the Toba catastrophe theory just looked it up.

825
00:48:38.760 --> 00:48:41.960
<v Speaker 2>It holds that seventy five thousand years ago in Indonesia,

826
00:48:42.000 --> 00:48:44.679
<v Speaker 2>there was a volcano so wicked that it led to

827
00:48:44.800 --> 00:48:49.039
<v Speaker 2>a volcanic winter that lasted six to ten years and

828
00:48:49.119 --> 00:48:52.840
<v Speaker 2>maybe a thousand year long cooling episode for the Earth,

829
00:48:53.000 --> 00:48:56.360
<v Speaker 2>and we all almost died. Now for more on volcano doom.

830
00:48:56.440 --> 00:48:58.960
<v Speaker 2>If you're like, wow, didn't know I was so horny

831
00:48:58.960 --> 00:49:02.400
<v Speaker 2>for a volcano facts, see episode one with Jess Phoenix.

832
00:49:03.039 --> 00:49:03.960
<v Speaker 2>You will lava it.

833
00:49:05.360 --> 00:49:09.480
<v Speaker 3>Boston puts the probability at least twenty percent based on

834
00:49:09.519 --> 00:49:14.119
<v Speaker 3>objective and subjective considerations, that is, before twenty one hundred.

835
00:49:15.440 --> 00:49:18.880
<v Speaker 3>Martin Reese suggests that there's a fifty to fifty chance

836
00:49:18.920 --> 00:49:23.760
<v Speaker 3>of civilization will collapse. This century. If you take seriously

837
00:49:23.800 --> 00:49:27.079
<v Speaker 3>some of these estimates and you compare them to the

838
00:49:27.159 --> 00:49:31.119
<v Speaker 3>likelihood of dying, for example, in a car accident or

839
00:49:31.360 --> 00:49:35.559
<v Speaker 3>a plane accident or something of that sort, it turns

840
00:49:35.599 --> 00:49:39.320
<v Speaker 3>out you're much more likely to encounter some kind of

841
00:49:39.400 --> 00:49:45.679
<v Speaker 3>human extinction event that really like thousands of times more likely. Wow,

842
00:49:49.320 --> 00:49:52.119
<v Speaker 3>I should add quickly, you're also much more likely to

843
00:49:52.280 --> 00:49:57.639
<v Speaker 3>die in a huge asteroid strike then gets struck by

844
00:49:57.719 --> 00:50:00.639
<v Speaker 3>lightning or something. And that's just because in asteroids is

845
00:50:00.639 --> 00:50:03.880
<v Speaker 3>going to harm so many people that if you if

846
00:50:03.920 --> 00:50:08.920
<v Speaker 3>you consider the probability over you know, millennia, then that's

847
00:50:08.920 --> 00:50:11.400
<v Speaker 3>how you get the probability that you're more likely to

848
00:50:11.440 --> 00:50:12.119
<v Speaker 3>die that way.

849
00:50:12.280 --> 00:50:14.840
<v Speaker 2>Oh, but it's still numbers or numbers, I'll take it.

850
00:50:15.039 --> 00:50:15.880
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

851
00:50:15.920 --> 00:50:18.639
<v Speaker 2>Do you live your life differently thinking about the apocalypse

852
00:50:18.719 --> 00:50:21.639
<v Speaker 2>or do you give advice to anyone like we should

853
00:50:21.679 --> 00:50:23.239
<v Speaker 2>still be recycling.

854
00:50:23.280 --> 00:50:24.519
<v Speaker 3>Right we should? Yeah?

855
00:50:24.599 --> 00:50:28.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, yeah, we should still be helping fellow humans.

856
00:50:28.480 --> 00:50:30.960
<v Speaker 3>Oh very much so, right, yeah, absolutely.

857
00:50:31.039 --> 00:50:35.199
<v Speaker 2>Trying not to squash any endangered species. Vote for people

858
00:50:35.280 --> 00:50:39.559
<v Speaker 2>who give at least one shit about the future, right yeah,

859
00:50:39.599 --> 00:50:44.840
<v Speaker 2>And don't develop ai that could use human atoms as fuel.

860
00:50:45.920 --> 00:50:48.480
<v Speaker 2>Have you ever watched Black Mirror. Yes, how do you

861
00:50:48.519 --> 00:50:49.159
<v Speaker 2>feel about it?

862
00:50:49.519 --> 00:50:49.920
<v Speaker 3>Very good?

863
00:50:50.519 --> 00:50:50.800
<v Speaker 2>Good?

864
00:50:51.000 --> 00:50:56.079
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, why I mean, sorry, I'm screaming. Let me, let me,

865
00:50:57.039 --> 00:50:59.000
<v Speaker 4>let me change my answer to it. I think the

866
00:50:59.079 --> 00:51:02.920
<v Speaker 4>show is fantastic. I think a lot of the topics

867
00:51:03.440 --> 00:51:09.360
<v Speaker 4>that they that the show explores are really fascinating. And

868
00:51:09.880 --> 00:51:13.280
<v Speaker 4>it's a lot of these issues are kind of right

869
00:51:13.280 --> 00:51:17.519
<v Speaker 4>around the corner. So it's it's uh, I mean, it's

870
00:51:17.559 --> 00:51:18.840
<v Speaker 4>giving us a.

871
00:51:18.559 --> 00:51:22.639
<v Speaker 3>Sneak peek in certain respects, at least of kind of

872
00:51:22.719 --> 00:51:28.360
<v Speaker 3>near term, you know, issues with social media, with you know,

873
00:51:28.920 --> 00:51:32.079
<v Speaker 3>possibly things like mind uploading. I mean that might be

874
00:51:32.199 --> 00:51:36.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, in the next you know, several decades. Yeah,

875
00:51:36.400 --> 00:51:39.280
<v Speaker 3>it's really quite good, and it's I think it's helpful

876
00:51:39.320 --> 00:51:44.280
<v Speaker 3>to explore the more dystopian possibilities because again, you know,

877
00:51:44.360 --> 00:51:48.320
<v Speaker 3>these technologies are dual use. They don't just have destructive capabilities,

878
00:51:48.320 --> 00:51:51.760
<v Speaker 3>but also, on the other hand, they could really ameliorate

879
00:51:51.920 --> 00:51:54.920
<v Speaker 3>the human condition in all sorts of amazing ways. I

880
00:51:55.000 --> 00:51:58.800
<v Speaker 3>certainly would be elated if we could cure all disease,

881
00:51:59.159 --> 00:52:05.519
<v Speaker 3>you know, as hell and cancer, Alzheimer's. But the you know,

882
00:52:05.559 --> 00:52:08.719
<v Speaker 3>and focusing on the peril, I think doesn't make one

883
00:52:10.840 --> 00:52:14.519
<v Speaker 3>a pessimist. This is an issue that I've had with

884
00:52:14.559 --> 00:52:18.000
<v Speaker 3>a lot of Stephen Pinker's work, because he seems to

885
00:52:18.000 --> 00:52:21.679
<v Speaker 3>think that people who talk about existential risks are are pessimistic. Like,

886
00:52:22.079 --> 00:52:25.920
<v Speaker 3>you know, I tend to be fairly optimistic in my

887
00:52:25.960 --> 00:52:29.800
<v Speaker 3>personal life by my nature, but there are some facts

888
00:52:29.800 --> 00:52:34.320
<v Speaker 3>about the world that make me pessimistic. Anyways, The point is,

889
00:52:34.360 --> 00:52:38.639
<v Speaker 3>in order to increase the chance that there is actually

890
00:52:38.639 --> 00:52:42.800
<v Speaker 3>a really good outcome, it's critical to focus on the

891
00:52:42.840 --> 00:52:45.360
<v Speaker 3>worst case scenarios on how things could go wrong, where

892
00:52:45.400 --> 00:52:49.440
<v Speaker 3>you say, okay, let's fix this outcome. In fact, Pinker

893
00:52:49.480 --> 00:52:54.719
<v Speaker 3>has accused some existential risk scholars of just kind of

894
00:52:54.719 --> 00:53:00.599
<v Speaker 3>sitting around trying to invent new doomsday scenarios. Well, kind of, yes,

895
00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:03.880
<v Speaker 3>because because we certainly don't want to be blindsided.

896
00:53:04.119 --> 00:53:06.199
<v Speaker 2>We got these big old noggins, we gotta use some

897
00:53:06.519 --> 00:53:09.079
<v Speaker 2>your thing ahead. I'd like to rely on the theory

898
00:53:09.119 --> 00:53:13.559
<v Speaker 2>that this is all a simulation possibilities, that that's true,

899
00:53:15.599 --> 00:53:18.320
<v Speaker 2>it's possible, Okay, Like, can you just say that it's

900
00:53:18.320 --> 00:53:21.320
<v Speaker 2>possible if it were a simulation. If someone were like, hey,

901
00:53:21.519 --> 00:53:24.000
<v Speaker 2>got news, would you do anything differently in your life?

902
00:53:25.119 --> 00:53:26.119
<v Speaker 3>Probably not.

903
00:53:26.920 --> 00:53:29.480
<v Speaker 2>But some scholars He says, like Max Tech Mark have

904
00:53:29.760 --> 00:53:33.519
<v Speaker 2>simulation theories, maybe a little tongue in cheek that maybe

905
00:53:33.559 --> 00:53:37.400
<v Speaker 2>the more strife and jerks and power and religious wars

906
00:53:37.440 --> 00:53:40.440
<v Speaker 2>we have, the more entertaining we are to the folks

907
00:53:40.519 --> 00:53:43.199
<v Speaker 2>running the simulation. Kind of like an ant farm with

908
00:53:43.280 --> 00:53:46.519
<v Speaker 2>a lot of battles and activities only were people. And

909
00:53:46.599 --> 00:53:48.840
<v Speaker 2>it feels real and it hurts and we want to

910
00:53:48.840 --> 00:53:50.920
<v Speaker 2>sleep all the time to escape the pain. Can I

911
00:53:50.920 --> 00:53:53.119
<v Speaker 2>ask you some Patreon questions about make it quick? Yeah,

912
00:53:53.159 --> 00:53:56.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm gonna lob a couple questions that you at random. Okay,

913
00:53:56.079 --> 00:54:01.239
<v Speaker 2>so on Patreon. Patreon patrons get to some questions and

914
00:54:01.519 --> 00:54:04.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm just going to ask you a few. At total randoms,

915
00:54:04.400 --> 00:54:05.920
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people all were like, how are we

916
00:54:05.960 --> 00:54:10.400
<v Speaker 2>going out? That's like everyone's would to be self induced

917
00:54:10.400 --> 00:54:13.039
<v Speaker 2>our extraterrestrial. Everyone's like, how are we going out? Everyone

918
00:54:13.039 --> 00:54:16.400
<v Speaker 2>wants to know. But before we take questions from you,

919
00:54:16.559 --> 00:54:19.000
<v Speaker 2>our beloved listeners, we're going to take a quick break

920
00:54:19.039 --> 00:54:22.119
<v Speaker 2>for sponsors of the show. Sponsors. Why sponsors? You know

921
00:54:22.119 --> 00:54:24.480
<v Speaker 2>what they do? They help us give money to different

922
00:54:24.559 --> 00:54:26.760
<v Speaker 2>charities every week. So if you want to know where

923
00:54:26.800 --> 00:54:30.039
<v Speaker 2>ologies gives our money, you can go to Alleyward dot

924
00:54:30.039 --> 00:54:33.079
<v Speaker 2>com and look for the tab ologies gives back. There's

925
00:54:33.199 --> 00:54:35.639
<v Speaker 2>like one hundred and fifty different charities that we've given

926
00:54:35.679 --> 00:54:38.559
<v Speaker 2>to already, with more every single week. So if you

927
00:54:38.639 --> 00:54:40.159
<v Speaker 2>need a place to go, donate a little bit of

928
00:54:40.199 --> 00:54:42.119
<v Speaker 2>money but you're not sure where to go. Those are

929
00:54:42.159 --> 00:54:46.079
<v Speaker 2>all picked biologists who work in those fields, and this

930
00:54:46.199 --> 00:54:49.239
<v Speaker 2>ad break allows us to give a ton of money

931
00:54:49.280 --> 00:54:52.920
<v Speaker 2>to them. So thanks for listening and thank sponsors. You're

932
00:54:52.960 --> 00:54:53.440
<v Speaker 2>on the books.

933
00:54:53.760 --> 00:54:57.000
<v Speaker 1>An hour from home and bumper to bumper traffic creeping

934
00:54:57.079 --> 00:55:00.239
<v Speaker 1>forward a few inches at a time, someone's kids are

935
00:55:00.280 --> 00:55:05.760
<v Speaker 1>screaming and suddenly your back is too. Luckily, Panadal extra

936
00:55:05.800 --> 00:55:08.880
<v Speaker 1>film coated tablets are boosted by caffeine and they get

937
00:55:08.920 --> 00:55:12.280
<v Speaker 1>to work in as little as ten minutes for powerful relief.

938
00:55:12.280 --> 00:55:16.599
<v Speaker 1>That's more than just paracetamol. That's one for Panadal speed

939
00:55:16.599 --> 00:55:19.920
<v Speaker 1>based on absorption data contains paracetamol. Always read the label

940
00:55:19.960 --> 00:55:20.480
<v Speaker 1>or leaflet.

941
00:55:23.280 --> 00:55:28.159
<v Speaker 2>Okay your questions. Kira Liechtenfeld asked do you put any

942
00:55:28.159 --> 00:55:31.039
<v Speaker 2>stock into the doomsday clock? She also notes that was

943
00:55:31.079 --> 00:55:34.159
<v Speaker 2>an accidental rhyme and ps. The doomsday clock is a

944
00:55:34.199 --> 00:55:38.280
<v Speaker 2>symbol that the bulletin of atomic scientists, first employed in

945
00:55:38.360 --> 00:55:41.480
<v Speaker 2>nineteen forty seven. It represents how close we are to

946
00:55:41.599 --> 00:55:45.639
<v Speaker 2>a man made global catastrophe. Now, should I change man

947
00:55:45.679 --> 00:55:47.639
<v Speaker 2>made to person made? Or should I just leave it

948
00:55:47.719 --> 00:55:48.519
<v Speaker 2>man made?

949
00:55:49.480 --> 00:55:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Leave it?

950
00:55:50.000 --> 00:55:52.639
<v Speaker 2>Also how close we are to climate change or a

951
00:55:52.719 --> 00:55:57.519
<v Speaker 2>global nuclear war. Now, doomsday is represented by midnight, and

952
00:55:57.559 --> 00:56:00.320
<v Speaker 2>in nineteen forty seven it was set to seven. It's

953
00:56:00.360 --> 00:56:03.320
<v Speaker 2>to the hour. Now it's been set backwards and forwards

954
00:56:03.440 --> 00:56:07.239
<v Speaker 2>twenty three times since then, and it reached a placid

955
00:56:07.519 --> 00:56:10.400
<v Speaker 2>seventeen minutes to the hour in nineteen ninety one. But

956
00:56:11.679 --> 00:56:13.760
<v Speaker 2>it has changed recently.

957
00:56:14.440 --> 00:56:17.360
<v Speaker 3>That Donald Trump, I'm sure you know this or listeners

958
00:56:17.440 --> 00:56:20.239
<v Speaker 3>know this, but he more or less single handedly pushed

959
00:56:20.239 --> 00:56:22.880
<v Speaker 3>the doomsday clock, the minute hand of the doomsday clock forward.

960
00:56:23.800 --> 00:56:27.480
<v Speaker 3>That happened in twenty seventeen. They announced must January or something,

961
00:56:27.920 --> 00:56:32.119
<v Speaker 3>and then that was the clock went from three minutes

962
00:56:32.239 --> 00:56:36.400
<v Speaker 3>before midnight, which represents doom, to two and a half minutes.

963
00:56:36.440 --> 00:56:39.679
<v Speaker 3>And then last earlier this year, I should say it

964
00:56:39.719 --> 00:56:44.480
<v Speaker 3>was pushed forward another thirty seconds, almost entirely because of

965
00:56:44.760 --> 00:56:50.880
<v Speaker 3>Trump's actions and you know, climate denialism and background you know,

966
00:56:52.079 --> 00:56:55.199
<v Speaker 3>also like withdrawing from the Paris climate Agreement and the

967
00:56:55.280 --> 00:56:58.880
<v Speaker 3>Iraan nuclear Deal, both of which the bulletin the Atomic Scientists,

968
00:56:58.880 --> 00:57:03.320
<v Speaker 3>which runs the Doomsday o'clock identified previously as as they

969
00:57:03.360 --> 00:57:06.880
<v Speaker 3>put it, two bright spots in front of a canopy

970
00:57:07.119 --> 00:57:12.159
<v Speaker 3>of bleakness, or they had some kind of something somewhat

971
00:57:12.440 --> 00:57:18.280
<v Speaker 3>dark and dismally poetic. And yeah, so Donald, there is

972
00:57:20.079 --> 00:57:23.559
<v Speaker 3>at exactly the moment in human history. You know, we've

973
00:57:23.559 --> 00:57:27.559
<v Speaker 3>been around for two hundred thousand years and recorded history

974
00:57:27.559 --> 00:57:31.480
<v Speaker 3>started maybe four thousand years ago, six thousand years ago,

975
00:57:31.559 --> 00:57:35.280
<v Speaker 3>I guess, And as Stephen Hawking said be in an

976
00:57:35.639 --> 00:57:39.559
<v Speaker 3>Guardian op ed in twenty sixteen, I think there's a

977
00:57:39.599 --> 00:57:41.639
<v Speaker 3>very good reason for thinking this is the most dangerous

978
00:57:41.639 --> 00:57:44.719
<v Speaker 3>moment in all of human history. So that this critical

979
00:57:44.800 --> 00:57:48.960
<v Speaker 3>juncture in our career as a species exactly the moment

980
00:57:49.039 --> 00:57:52.559
<v Speaker 3>when we need someone who is deeply sagacious and wise

981
00:57:52.719 --> 00:57:58.760
<v Speaker 3>and thoughtful and understands our evolving exsidential predicament. We have

982
00:57:58.920 --> 00:58:03.320
<v Speaker 3>someone who is I mean, I know, I'm not this

983
00:58:03.360 --> 00:58:06.840
<v Speaker 3>isn't a bold original thesis that I'm proposing here, but

984
00:58:07.320 --> 00:58:10.960
<v Speaker 3>someone who is just profoundly ignorant and just revels in

985
00:58:11.039 --> 00:58:13.960
<v Speaker 3>ignorance and foolishness in myopia.

986
00:58:14.079 --> 00:58:16.119
<v Speaker 2>Aaron Stbrooks wants to know, are we better off heading

987
00:58:16.159 --> 00:58:18.800
<v Speaker 2>for water or going underground?

988
00:58:20.760 --> 00:58:22.159
<v Speaker 3>Are those the only two options?

989
00:58:22.320 --> 00:58:23.920
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I think she's assuming that we want

990
00:58:23.960 --> 00:58:24.440
<v Speaker 2>to survive.

991
00:58:25.159 --> 00:58:31.199
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, just dark. Well, yeah, some scholars have advocated for

992
00:58:32.280 --> 00:58:34.719
<v Speaker 3>bunkers that are continually occupied.

993
00:58:35.440 --> 00:58:38.639
<v Speaker 2>If you're cruising Redfin for an apocalypse, Pia de terre.

994
00:58:39.119 --> 00:58:42.679
<v Speaker 2>There's a former missile silo near Topeka for sale just

995
00:58:42.760 --> 00:58:47.440
<v Speaker 2>over three million dollars thirty four acres solar panels, comes

996
00:58:47.480 --> 00:58:51.039
<v Speaker 2>with a lawnmower and eleven thousand square feet of hunker

997
00:58:51.079 --> 00:58:54.000
<v Speaker 2>down fun time space below the earth. Perhaps you can

998
00:58:54.039 --> 00:59:00.880
<v Speaker 2>invite Michael Stipe for a slumber party.

999
00:59:01.920 --> 00:59:04.320
<v Speaker 3>So that's one option. Water. I don't know. I mean,

1000
00:59:04.320 --> 00:59:08.039
<v Speaker 3>actually submarines could serve the exact same purpose as bunkers.

1001
00:59:08.800 --> 00:59:12.800
<v Speaker 3>You know, there could be some global catastrophe, just some

1002
00:59:13.719 --> 00:59:16.199
<v Speaker 3>scenarios it actually wouldn't be effective, of course, like a

1003
00:59:16.280 --> 00:59:18.800
<v Speaker 3>runway greenhouse effect. Or you know, there could be a

1004
00:59:18.840 --> 00:59:23.400
<v Speaker 3>physics disaster that results in black hole or strange lit

1005
00:59:25.639 --> 00:59:28.199
<v Speaker 3>or a vacuum bubble as it's called, that could actually

1006
00:59:28.719 --> 00:59:35.599
<v Speaker 3>destroy the entire universe. That seems unlikely, but also possible.

1007
00:59:35.679 --> 00:59:39.159
<v Speaker 3>I mean maybe, I mean, Mars sounds as appealing as

1008
00:59:39.360 --> 00:59:44.119
<v Speaker 3>underground or underwater to me, and Mars doesn't sound too appealing.

1009
00:59:44.239 --> 00:59:47.360
<v Speaker 2>It does not sound very appealing. It seems very dry there.

1010
00:59:47.599 --> 00:59:49.800
<v Speaker 2>Jessica Vitter really wants to know where humans so obsessed

1011
00:59:49.800 --> 00:59:51.400
<v Speaker 2>with being judged at the end of their life. Is

1012
00:59:51.400 --> 00:59:53.559
<v Speaker 2>it something learned or just part of our makeup.

1013
00:59:55.400 --> 01:00:00.000
<v Speaker 3>Oh, that's a good question. Surely some of it is learned.

1014
01:00:00.599 --> 01:00:03.079
<v Speaker 3>I mean, this is outside my area of expertise, so

1015
01:00:03.159 --> 01:00:06.599
<v Speaker 3>I would just you know, I'm just guessing. Yeah, no

1016
01:00:06.679 --> 01:00:09.239
<v Speaker 3>doubt some of it's learned. But also I don't know.

1017
01:00:10.119 --> 01:00:12.440
<v Speaker 3>My immediate thought is like, maybe there's a component of

1018
01:00:13.000 --> 01:00:18.039
<v Speaker 3>morality that leads us to wish that when we're gone,

1019
01:00:18.840 --> 01:00:22.079
<v Speaker 3>you know that during our lives we would have had

1020
01:00:22.119 --> 01:00:25.239
<v Speaker 3>a positive impact and left some kind of some kind

1021
01:00:25.280 --> 01:00:31.440
<v Speaker 3>of trace that you know, benefited the world or just

1022
01:00:31.480 --> 01:00:33.039
<v Speaker 3>the people around us. You know.

1023
01:00:33.159 --> 01:00:34.679
<v Speaker 2>That's a kind nice answer.

1024
01:00:35.000 --> 01:00:35.880
<v Speaker 3>It's the best I could do.

1025
01:00:36.159 --> 01:00:39.199
<v Speaker 2>No, it's you managed it. Shelby Vonn wants to know

1026
01:00:39.320 --> 01:00:42.559
<v Speaker 2>how has studying neuroscience informed your philosophical work and what

1027
01:00:42.679 --> 01:00:45.880
<v Speaker 2>is your favorite weird end of the world potentiality. So

1028
01:00:46.000 --> 01:00:50.000
<v Speaker 2>neuroscience and philosophy. Yeah, and what's the best way to

1029
01:00:50.039 --> 01:00:50.320
<v Speaker 2>go out?

1030
01:00:50.559 --> 01:00:53.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. So the reason I was interested in neuroscience to

1031
01:00:53.880 --> 01:00:58.079
<v Speaker 3>begin with was because I was focusing as an undergrad

1032
01:00:58.199 --> 01:01:03.039
<v Speaker 3>on philosophy of mind. And this was kind of shortly

1033
01:01:03.079 --> 01:01:09.719
<v Speaker 3>after Patricia Churchland published her book on neurophilosophy, and she

1034
01:01:09.920 --> 01:01:14.880
<v Speaker 3>holds a view about folks psychology, beliefs, desires.

1035
01:01:15.159 --> 01:01:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so this is a philosophy. In a very very tiny,

1036
01:01:17.280 --> 01:01:21.960
<v Speaker 2>tiny thumbnail, Nutshell asserts that things we think we understand

1037
01:01:22.000 --> 01:01:24.559
<v Speaker 2>up of the mind, like that we believe in things

1038
01:01:24.719 --> 01:01:28.239
<v Speaker 2>or desire things not really real because they're poorly defined,

1039
01:01:28.360 --> 01:01:32.519
<v Speaker 2>and the behavior should just be judged on biological levels.

1040
01:01:32.840 --> 01:01:35.400
<v Speaker 3>So I was pretty intrigued by that, and I thought

1041
01:01:35.440 --> 01:01:38.480
<v Speaker 3>maybe it would be worth learning a bit more about

1042
01:01:38.480 --> 01:01:43.960
<v Speaker 3>the hardware, you know, and seeing how that might inform

1043
01:01:44.599 --> 01:01:46.960
<v Speaker 3>philosophizing about the wetwear, you know, the higher level of

1044
01:01:46.960 --> 01:01:52.079
<v Speaker 3>conscious experience or you know, just cognitive functions.

1045
01:01:52.320 --> 01:01:54.840
<v Speaker 2>And then what's your favorite apocalypse scenario?

1046
01:01:54.920 --> 01:01:58.039
<v Speaker 3>Okay, So there's this amazing polymathic scholar at Oxford University

1047
01:01:58.119 --> 01:02:02.519
<v Speaker 3>named Andrew Sandberg, and he recently responded to cora question,

1048
01:02:02.760 --> 01:02:06.840
<v Speaker 3>which was what would happen if the Earth suddenly turned

1049
01:02:06.880 --> 01:02:12.199
<v Speaker 3>into high density blueberries. Huh. And he took he took

1050
01:02:12.239 --> 01:02:16.039
<v Speaker 3>the question seriously and did the math and ended up

1051
01:02:16.079 --> 01:02:19.519
<v Speaker 3>responding with a paper that is up on archive and

1052
01:02:19.599 --> 01:02:26.440
<v Speaker 3>it's it's a really technical, really technical, fantastic sophisticated article

1053
01:02:27.639 --> 01:02:30.719
<v Speaker 3>that you know, I couldn't get through parts of it,

1054
01:02:31.360 --> 01:02:33.800
<v Speaker 3>but it was really quite entertaining. And so I think

1055
01:02:33.840 --> 01:02:40.079
<v Speaker 3>that's my most favorite fantastical eschatological scenario.

1056
01:02:40.840 --> 01:02:42.760
<v Speaker 2>I'm ready for the blueberry death.

1057
01:02:42.800 --> 01:02:45.039
<v Speaker 3>You're blowing up like a ball, like a blueberry.

1058
01:02:45.239 --> 01:02:49.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm so ready for it. Lindsay Freshmouth wants to know.

1059
01:02:49.280 --> 01:02:52.920
<v Speaker 2>Number one, are you familiar with Harry Potter? Not really, Okay,

1060
01:02:53.000 --> 01:02:56.199
<v Speaker 2>she wanted to know if you're Slytherin, but something told

1061
01:02:56.239 --> 01:02:59.920
<v Speaker 2>her that you're a raven claw. They're different houses. Maybe

1062
01:03:00.039 --> 01:03:03.599
<v Speaker 2>could go take that, who knows. But my last two questions, Yeah,

1063
01:03:03.679 --> 01:03:08.119
<v Speaker 2>worst thing about your job? What sucks about studying the apocalypse?

1064
01:03:09.079 --> 01:03:11.239
<v Speaker 2>That's such a that's that could be either that's such

1065
01:03:11.239 --> 01:03:13.559
<v Speaker 2>a broad question. But what is the worst thing about

1066
01:03:13.559 --> 01:03:14.639
<v Speaker 2>studying the apocalypse?

1067
01:03:15.000 --> 01:03:22.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, well it's not the most soporific topic, that's for sure.

1068
01:03:22.199 --> 01:03:27.079
<v Speaker 2>Okay, soporific just means inducing drowsiness. So no, the end

1069
01:03:27.119 --> 01:03:30.239
<v Speaker 2>of the world not a sleepy business. Also, yes, I

1070
01:03:30.239 --> 01:03:30.760
<v Speaker 2>looked it up.

1071
01:03:31.280 --> 01:03:35.639
<v Speaker 3>I do enjoy. I mean it's it's meaningful, uh work

1072
01:03:35.679 --> 01:03:39.840
<v Speaker 3>for sure. I think that's what kind of enables me

1073
01:03:40.039 --> 01:03:47.559
<v Speaker 3>to spend days, you know, just you know, just really

1074
01:03:47.679 --> 01:03:51.440
<v Speaker 3>cogitating some particular you know, dark scenario.

1075
01:03:51.760 --> 01:03:55.159
<v Speaker 2>Cogitate to think about or meditate upon. Toss that in

1076
01:03:55.159 --> 01:03:57.480
<v Speaker 2>your little word tool box. It's a good one.

1077
01:03:57.880 --> 01:04:00.960
<v Speaker 3>I don't know. In terms of downsides, I mean, it's

1078
01:04:01.000 --> 01:04:06.920
<v Speaker 3>hard to get grants, you know, it's it's that's a

1079
01:04:06.920 --> 01:04:09.440
<v Speaker 3>bit of a struggle. I think that's the worst part

1080
01:04:09.960 --> 01:04:11.760
<v Speaker 3>getting grants. Yeah, getting grants.

1081
01:04:11.920 --> 01:04:15.800
<v Speaker 2>I love that you study heat, dead of the universe, starvation, extinction,

1082
01:04:15.920 --> 01:04:19.280
<v Speaker 2>And the worst is applying for grants. That's the darkest part,

1083
01:04:19.719 --> 01:04:21.719
<v Speaker 2>because do you ever just get a stamp back that's

1084
01:04:21.760 --> 01:04:27.000
<v Speaker 2>like big stamp, like boom, what's the point? Like I

1085
01:04:27.039 --> 01:04:28.880
<v Speaker 2>was like, you've convinced me and your grant that the

1086
01:04:28.880 --> 01:04:31.559
<v Speaker 2>apocalypse is coming. Ergo I will not fund it.

1087
01:04:31.760 --> 01:04:35.119
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, yeah. I imagine there are some studies, some papers

1088
01:04:35.119 --> 01:04:38.679
<v Speaker 3>that could be written that you know, might present a

1089
01:04:38.719 --> 01:04:43.960
<v Speaker 3>really compelling case that that the end is imminent, and

1090
01:04:44.119 --> 01:04:49.519
<v Speaker 3>that would deter no doubt. Yeah, the garnering of further money.

1091
01:04:49.639 --> 01:04:51.239
<v Speaker 2>They're like, where did I take this money. We're gonna

1092
01:04:51.239 --> 01:04:54.320
<v Speaker 2>buy a yacht, We're gonna throw a party because it's

1093
01:04:54.320 --> 01:04:57.000
<v Speaker 2>all coming. What's the best thing about your job? What

1094
01:04:57.039 --> 01:04:59.079
<v Speaker 2>do you love the most about being an eschatologist?

1095
01:05:00.000 --> 01:05:02.199
<v Speaker 3>I think it's what I gestured out a moment ago.

1096
01:05:03.000 --> 01:05:05.559
<v Speaker 3>I find it really meaningful. And this gets back even

1097
01:05:05.599 --> 01:05:08.599
<v Speaker 3>to the uh to the the sort of to use

1098
01:05:08.639 --> 01:05:10.840
<v Speaker 3>the term a bit loosely, the kind of paradox of

1099
01:05:10.880 --> 01:05:17.000
<v Speaker 3>the field. How it's it's extremely important topic whose importance is,

1100
01:05:17.800 --> 01:05:21.039
<v Speaker 3>as I said before, is just very parasitic on the

1101
01:05:21.079 --> 01:05:24.480
<v Speaker 3>importance of all other things, you know, poetry and sports

1102
01:05:24.559 --> 01:05:30.599
<v Speaker 3>and literature and so on. It is it is meaningful.

1103
01:05:30.639 --> 01:05:34.440
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's you know, this is work that aims

1104
01:05:34.480 --> 01:05:40.519
<v Speaker 3>to improve the lives of of the next generation and

1105
01:05:41.119 --> 01:05:46.239
<v Speaker 3>also to ensure that the great experiment called civilization continues

1106
01:05:46.360 --> 01:05:50.000
<v Speaker 3>and this multi generational project of science and philosophy and

1107
01:05:50.000 --> 01:05:53.239
<v Speaker 3>so on can perhaps reach some kind of you know,

1108
01:05:53.280 --> 01:05:55.360
<v Speaker 3>there will be good ending to the to the narrative

1109
01:05:55.400 --> 01:06:01.599
<v Speaker 3>of human existence. So yeah, that's I've that deeply satisfying.

1110
01:06:01.880 --> 01:06:07.559
<v Speaker 3>If you're a young person you happen to also care

1111
01:06:07.599 --> 01:06:11.760
<v Speaker 3>about human survival, then this is a good field to

1112
01:06:11.800 --> 01:06:16.159
<v Speaker 3>go into. It's a growth field. Also, as colleagues say,

1113
01:06:16.960 --> 01:06:19.360
<v Speaker 3>it's not going away anywhere anytime soon.

1114
01:06:19.559 --> 01:06:22.320
<v Speaker 2>There's never been a better time to be a doomstare awesome.

1115
01:06:22.320 --> 01:06:23.519
<v Speaker 3>Thanks a lot, appreciate it.

1116
01:06:25.719 --> 01:06:29.639
<v Speaker 2>To find more of the brilliant and delightful fil tors work,

1117
01:06:29.679 --> 01:06:33.239
<v Speaker 2>you can see the website Risk and Religion dot org.

1118
01:06:33.639 --> 01:06:37.360
<v Speaker 2>He is x Riskology on Twitter. I'll link those both

1119
01:06:37.400 --> 01:06:39.880
<v Speaker 2>in the show notes, and his books are The End

1120
01:06:39.960 --> 01:06:42.480
<v Speaker 2>What Science and Religion tells us about the Apocalypse and

1121
01:06:42.920 --> 01:06:47.480
<v Speaker 2>last year's release Morality Foresight and Human Flourishing and Introduction

1122
01:06:47.599 --> 01:06:51.000
<v Speaker 2>to Existential Risks. So do get your myths on those

1123
01:06:51.360 --> 01:06:55.159
<v Speaker 2>ologies is at ologies on Twitter and Instagram. I'm Ali

1124
01:06:55.280 --> 01:06:58.039
<v Speaker 2>Ward with one L on both, so do follow along.

1125
01:06:58.599 --> 01:07:02.199
<v Speaker 2>Ologies merch dot com has shirts that you can maybe

1126
01:07:02.320 --> 01:07:06.360
<v Speaker 2>use as a tourniquet during the chaos of an extraterrestrial

1127
01:07:06.400 --> 01:07:09.800
<v Speaker 2>alien invasion. Thank you Bonnie Dutch and Shannon Feltis and

1128
01:07:09.880 --> 01:07:14.039
<v Speaker 2>the Ologies podcast Facebook group is great, wonderful people, new

1129
01:07:14.079 --> 01:07:16.639
<v Speaker 2>friends you can meet before we all die. Thank you.

1130
01:07:16.880 --> 01:07:21.360
<v Speaker 2>Aaron Talbert and Handle Lippo for admining. Nick Thorburn wrote

1131
01:07:21.360 --> 01:07:23.559
<v Speaker 2>and performed the theme music for this. He's in a

1132
01:07:23.559 --> 01:07:27.320
<v Speaker 2>band called Islands. And this was edited by Life Saver

1133
01:07:27.559 --> 01:07:31.079
<v Speaker 2>Stephen Ray Morris, who also hosts the podcasts The per

1134
01:07:31.199 --> 01:07:34.519
<v Speaker 2>Cast and See Jurassic Right Now. If you stick around

1135
01:07:34.559 --> 01:07:38.880
<v Speaker 2>to the end, the end, the end, you know I

1136
01:07:38.920 --> 01:07:41.800
<v Speaker 2>tell you a secret every episode. So this week's secret

1137
01:07:41.880 --> 01:07:44.039
<v Speaker 2>is that right before I started recording these asides, I

1138
01:07:44.039 --> 01:07:46.440
<v Speaker 2>got a text from my dad on the family thread

1139
01:07:46.480 --> 01:07:49.000
<v Speaker 2>about how there were thirty nine earthquakes on the Santadres

1140
01:07:49.039 --> 01:07:49.880
<v Speaker 2>fault yesterday.

1141
01:07:50.119 --> 01:07:50.679
<v Speaker 3>That's great.

1142
01:07:50.920 --> 01:07:56.039
<v Speaker 2>Start with the so that's scary. But my first reaction

1143
01:07:56.119 --> 01:07:58.800
<v Speaker 2>to that was like, well, no one would expect you

1144
01:07:58.840 --> 01:08:00.599
<v Speaker 2>to return emails for a few days, so that'd be

1145
01:08:00.639 --> 01:08:03.119
<v Speaker 2>pretty sweet. And then also, it's not as bad as

1146
01:08:03.119 --> 01:08:07.599
<v Speaker 2>an asteroid, So maybe this apocalypse stuff is uplifting. Maybe

1147
01:08:07.639 --> 01:08:10.719
<v Speaker 2>we should laugh about it just a little more and

1148
01:08:10.760 --> 01:08:13.880
<v Speaker 2>live life in a way that's like, eh, fuck it,

1149
01:08:14.320 --> 01:08:18.119
<v Speaker 2>cut bangs, singing some karaoke, dance in a park, just

1150
01:08:18.720 --> 01:08:22.840
<v Speaker 2>do your thing. It's all gonna end, okay, Bye Bye. Pacodermatology,

1151
01:08:22.920 --> 01:08:34.960
<v Speaker 2>hobbiology or doo zoology, lithology, yeah, zechonology, meteorology, paratology, ethology, seriology, elinology.

1152
01:08:42.600 --> 01:08:45.439
<v Speaker 4>Class day is the syncre is now the class women

1153
01:08:45.600 --> 01:08:47.000
<v Speaker 4>Nish stay to make in.

1154
01:08:47.079 --> 01:09:00.720
<v Speaker 2>The number that is three time