1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,799 Speaker 1: The NFL playoffs are underway, and we're gonna get right 2 00:00:03,839 --> 00:00:06,799 into wild Card Weekend up next on bet on It. 3 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:26,359 Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, Yanni the Greek. We're gonna break 4 00:00:26,399 --> 00:00:31,559 down all six wild Card weekend games for you guys today. 5 00:00:31,239 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 2: On bet on It. 6 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: But we're gonna go a little out of order because 7 00:00:33,679 --> 00:00:36,520 I still made the guys pick one game as a 8 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:38,719 best bet, but I wanted to make sure we previewed 9 00:00:38,759 --> 00:00:41,119 all We almost started off with the Monday night football game, 10 00:00:41,119 --> 00:00:42,799 and I said, no, no, no, Marco, you gotta go. 11 00:00:43,119 --> 00:00:46,159 We got at least for my ad D, we gotta 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,320 at least make it the third one. So we're gonna 13 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,840 start off with VR. He is gonna go up first. 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:52,799 I've got my Odds logic screen up because I want 15 00:00:52,799 --> 00:00:55,560 to make sure that these Lions have not moved too 16 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,960 crazy yet. We've got the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night. 17 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: Football headed to New England. 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: New England opened a three and a half point favorite, 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,799 and it looks like it's still sitting right there. 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 2: Across the board. 21 00:01:08,439 --> 00:01:11,599 Speaker 1: Totals ticked up from forty five and a half forty 22 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,400 six forty six and a half at the hard Rock 23 00:01:14,439 --> 00:01:17,280 here in Florida, and forty six and a half they're 24 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:21,319 in Las Vegas at the Westgates Super Book VR breakdown 25 00:01:21,519 --> 00:01:24,319 this one for me. I know, I've been screaming all 26 00:01:24,359 --> 00:01:28,079 season long how fraudulent the New England Patriots are, and 27 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,760 then Baltimore Ravens did them no favors the other night, 28 00:01:31,879 --> 00:01:34,760 not a single one, because now they've only beaten one 29 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,920 ranked team, not ranked, excuse me, not ranked. I've been 30 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,359 just doing the College Football Show. Guys, have only beaten 31 00:01:40,519 --> 00:01:45,560 one team with a winning record, right, that's kind of 32 00:01:45,599 --> 00:01:48,959 telling me. I like, Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Not 33 00:01:48,959 --> 00:01:50,640 sure I'm gonna get to the window. Maybe you can 34 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:51,239 convince me. 35 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 3: Well, I have a future on the Chargers. It's a 36 00:01:54,879 --> 00:01:57,400 free roll because we hit our season win total over 37 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:00,719 so we're just letting that free roll go with the Chargers. Again, 38 00:02:01,799 --> 00:02:05,480 I have them power rated fifteenth, so they're not even 39 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,479 a top ten team as far as power rating goes. 40 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,840 With that said, New England's right at eleven on my 41 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:17,120 power ratings, and I agree with you, New England isn't 42 00:02:17,159 --> 00:02:21,560 all that impressive because of their strength of schedule. But 43 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,240 with all that said, they still have a plus one 44 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,360 hundred and seventy point differential, And we talk about it 45 00:02:28,479 --> 00:02:32,319 in MMA all the time. With strength of schedule, you 46 00:02:32,319 --> 00:02:34,479 can only fight who's in front of you, and if 47 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,919 you're running through these guys, that shouldn't be a knock 48 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,120 on you. Now, again, you shouldn't give a ton of 49 00:02:41,159 --> 00:02:44,759 credit when the strength of schedule is weak, but when 50 00:02:44,759 --> 00:02:48,639 they're running through teams like they're doing, it isn't really 51 00:02:48,719 --> 00:02:52,680 a knock. And that's the problem I'm having here because 52 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:54,919 when I look at the Chargers, sure, New England's had 53 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,560 the thirty second toughest strength of schedule, but the Chargers 54 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:03,360 are twenty seven, only four or five higher. And when 55 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,960 I look at the stats, even with that very easy 56 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,159 strength of schedule, there's still a twenty first, twenty second 57 00:03:11,319 --> 00:03:14,639 most efficient offense. So they've had a really easy strength 58 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:20,719 of schedule and a very non impressive offense. And now 59 00:03:20,759 --> 00:03:24,599 you're going to play a New England team that is 60 00:03:24,759 --> 00:03:27,520 a lot more balanced now on the defensive side of 61 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,319 the balls, where the Chargers, you know, are top ten, 62 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:35,400 And I think that's why, with the recency bias, you're 63 00:03:35,439 --> 00:03:38,400 seeing this total lower than what my power ratings reflect. 64 00:03:38,479 --> 00:03:41,280 Because I have this number closer to forty eight than 65 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,000 forty six. But when I look at the Chargers, they 66 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,439 only put up three points last week, sixteen points the 67 00:03:46,479 --> 00:03:49,520 week before that they had a big game against Dallas, 68 00:03:49,759 --> 00:03:52,719 but prior to that they put up sixteen and twenty two. 69 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,199 So in three of their last four games they put 70 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,520 up sixteen or less points. I look in New England. Now, 71 00:03:59,599 --> 00:04:03,520 New England put up points all right, but their opponents haven't. 72 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,319 They've held the last two opponents to ten and ten. 73 00:04:06,599 --> 00:04:08,919 And the only reason New England's games have been flying 74 00:04:08,919 --> 00:04:12,280 over is because those totals are lower forty two forty fours. 75 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,080 Now they bump it up a little bit, but I 76 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,560 don't think it's high enough. I haven't again, I haven't 77 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,680 gotten a window with this one. I have with the 78 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,959 best bet, which I'll share. But I'm trying to confirm 79 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,600 this over because again I do think it sets up nicely. 80 00:04:26,959 --> 00:04:31,439 I think the balance of New England and the fact 81 00:04:31,519 --> 00:04:37,279 that the Chargers offense I think has gotten been improved 82 00:04:37,319 --> 00:04:42,079 down this stretch. So the twenty first, twenty second is 83 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,199 the whole season, so I think we're going to see 84 00:04:45,199 --> 00:04:48,040 some more scoring than this number reflect so I'm gonna 85 00:04:48,079 --> 00:04:51,759 go over forty six Chargers and New England. 86 00:04:52,399 --> 00:04:54,199 Speaker 1: As I mentioned, we're going to backtrack a little bit 87 00:04:54,319 --> 00:04:58,079 and I am going to break down the forty nine Ers, 88 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,240 taking on to the phillid the Eagles. Currently, this line 89 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,279 is four and a half up from the opening number 90 00:05:04,319 --> 00:05:08,439 three and a half. But it's interesting there's two prominent 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,079 books still sitting at that three and a half mark. 92 00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:13,959 Kind of makes your head go, h, what am I 93 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,240 missing here? Forty six and a half was the opener 94 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:18,360 down to forty four and a half. 95 00:05:18,439 --> 00:05:20,079 Speaker 2: There is still one forty. 96 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 1: Five left on my odds logic screen, depending on where 97 00:05:23,879 --> 00:05:26,519 you guys like to shop. And as Vre mentioned, he 98 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,040 has a future on the Chargers, and I have the 99 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,480 San Francisco forty nine Ers twenty to one. I give 100 00:05:32,519 --> 00:05:34,519 them to you guys here on bet on It way 101 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,240 back in August, and it looked dead on arrival after 102 00:05:38,399 --> 00:05:40,920 half of the forty nine Ers team became injured. 103 00:05:42,399 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a rough one. 104 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: Now, hey, they still have significantly better odds to win 105 00:05:47,639 --> 00:05:50,519 the whole thing, but I have a feeling the Eagles 106 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,839 might be the team to come out of the NFC. 107 00:05:53,399 --> 00:05:55,439 You guys, listen, to a couple other shows that I 108 00:05:55,519 --> 00:05:59,639 do several guys that they liked the Eagles out of that, 109 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,120 so I did put a little bit there, and hey, look, 110 00:06:03,439 --> 00:06:06,360 this is an Eagles team that's offensively. 111 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,879 Speaker 2: Been really abysmal over the last couple weeks. But here's 112 00:06:08,879 --> 00:06:10,959 a good news. They didn't care about the two seed 113 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:11,399 last week. 114 00:06:11,439 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: They sat everybody, and I'm not sure that that was 115 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,759 a bad move because you've got San Francisco, who was 116 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,680 in a dog fight versus Seattle now having to fly east, 117 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:28,680 and well, the Eagles are essentially rested. Plus they're gonna 118 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,680 get Lane Johnson back for this one after he's missed 119 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,639 the last seven games. I think you guys need to 120 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:36,920 understand how significant that is for that offensive line. 121 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,879 Speaker 2: Nick Sirianni has not lost a home. 122 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 1: Playoff game, and in those five wins, twenty one points 123 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:49,079 per game is the average margin of victory. And you 124 00:06:49,079 --> 00:06:50,759 guys are gonna say, oh, well, that one against the 125 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,279 forty nine ers and twenty twenty three doesn't count because 126 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,160 brock Perty got injured and was unable to finish the game. Yeah, 127 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,720 I get that, but this is a dominant Eagles team 128 00:07:00,759 --> 00:07:04,120 and I think they step up here late into the playoffs. 129 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,279 Speaker 2: Again, I have a forty nine. 130 00:07:06,199 --> 00:07:09,079 Speaker 1: Ers future, but I'm not overly optimistic about cashing it, 131 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,959 and I kind of wrote it off way back in October. 132 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:14,040 We'll see how this one ends up playing out, but 133 00:07:14,079 --> 00:07:16,759 I think I will be sprinkling just a little bit 134 00:07:16,879 --> 00:07:20,959 on the Philadelphia Eagles minus four and a half. Now 135 00:07:20,959 --> 00:07:23,480 we're gonna move on to Monday Night football. Marco D'Angelo 136 00:07:23,639 --> 00:07:25,920 is going to talk about his own team because he 137 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:27,519 knows them better than anybody else. 138 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 2: The Houston Texans. 139 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: On the road at Pittsburgh as three point road. 140 00:07:33,519 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 2: Favorites, and this one has not seemed to move at all. 141 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,279 Speaker 1: Open three still three thirty nine and a half is 142 00:07:40,319 --> 00:07:43,040 the total still thirty nine and a half across the board, 143 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,000 at least on my Odds logic screen. Marco D'Angelo, what 144 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,319 say you about your Pittsburgh Steelers. 145 00:07:49,839 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 4: Well, I hope the priest is there to bless the 146 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:57,079 field again before the start of the game. But can 147 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,240 you give a priest the game ball? I'm not sure. 148 00:08:00,079 --> 00:08:05,120 But these two coaches, they are like Siamese twins really 149 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,560 when you look at their coaching styles. Demiko Rans and 150 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,680 Mike Tomlin both don't like to take chances on offense. 151 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,240 Both want to rely on their defenses and play the 152 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:20,319 field position game. And the problem for the Steelers here 153 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:25,720 is the Houston defense is way better than the Steeler defense. 154 00:08:25,759 --> 00:08:29,519 You saw the breakdowns in the Steeler defense on that 155 00:08:29,639 --> 00:08:33,679 game on Monday night last week or Sunday night, I'm sorry, 156 00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:41,399 and that was Lamar Jackson just keeping plays alive, escaping 157 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:44,120 plays where he should have been sacked for ten or 158 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,879 fifteen yard losses, and then find somebody wide open downfield. 159 00:08:48,399 --> 00:08:51,120 Here's the problem that we're going to see in this game. 160 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,320 Pittsburgh likes to run the football, but Houston's held eight 161 00:08:55,399 --> 00:09:00,000 of their last eleven opponents to one hundred or fewer yards. Right, 162 00:09:00,879 --> 00:09:05,480 Houston's held fourteen of their seventeen opponents this year to 163 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:10,039 twenty one or fewer yards. This is a spot where 164 00:09:10,159 --> 00:09:14,279 Pittsburgh's gonna have trouble scoring. Now. They will get Metcalf 165 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:17,840 back this week. Why is that huge? Just because he's 166 00:09:17,879 --> 00:09:21,159 coming back, we know he's going to be the focus 167 00:09:21,159 --> 00:09:25,039 of attention from the Houston defense. The fact that he 168 00:09:25,159 --> 00:09:29,360 missed the last two games, it forced Aaron Rodgers to 169 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:34,080 get other receivers involved in the offense, and you saw 170 00:09:34,159 --> 00:09:39,320 that especially Sunday Night, is he went to Austin Friarmuth 171 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:43,919 got back in the mix with the passes, even the 172 00:09:44,279 --> 00:09:49,320 feeling caught a pass. It made the other receivers better, 173 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,759 and it made Rogers have confidence in going to the 174 00:09:53,799 --> 00:09:56,960 other players where they're gonna be able to move the football, 175 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,600 hitting some of those plays where Metcalf now will get 176 00:10:00,639 --> 00:10:03,519 those double teams and he can go to somebody else 177 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:07,120 with confidence, which he wasn't doing most of the season. 178 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,120 It was Metcalf first look or then a check down 179 00:10:11,159 --> 00:10:13,879 to gain Well, now he's got more people involved. So 180 00:10:13,879 --> 00:10:16,240 I think Pittsburgh will have a little more success moving 181 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,159 the football, but you're not going to have those big 182 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,360 chunk plays. What's that mean again? Going back to the 183 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,799 field position, where am I heading with all of this? 184 00:10:24,159 --> 00:10:26,559 You're looking at a total of thirty nine and a half? 185 00:10:26,879 --> 00:10:30,840 Are we back, you know, fifteen years ago in totals 186 00:10:30,919 --> 00:10:35,279 the slow but it warrants it in this game because 187 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,960 of the style of coaching, the defenses involved, in the 188 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,720 way the offenses play. I'm gonna go ahead and take 189 00:10:41,759 --> 00:10:45,919 this one under the total. And if you remember the 190 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,519 Sunday Night game, it was thirteen to ten midway, you know, 191 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,639 almost the midway point of the fourth quarter. It was 192 00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:56,440 a stone cold under on Monday night. But those big plays, 193 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:01,679 the broken defenses that made them flip the score, those 194 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,279 were lead changing plays. Had to have the other team 195 00:11:05,399 --> 00:11:08,120 keep answering if a team has the lead and the ball. 196 00:11:08,399 --> 00:11:12,360 Both of these coaches do the same thing. Run Run, Run. 197 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,480 I'm taking under thirty nine and a half. 198 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: All right, let's get into those best bets for Wildcard weekend. 199 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 4: VR. 200 00:11:20,519 --> 00:11:23,159 Speaker 1: You're gonna go up first, you're gonna break down this 201 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,120 Green Bay Chicago game. 202 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 2: But before you do, let everybody know what you've. 203 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 1: Got up for the NFL playoffs over at wager talk 204 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:31,759 dot com. 205 00:11:31,879 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, we've been waiting for the playoffs. 206 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 3: I mean, postseason has always been profitable, even when the 207 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,320 regular season has been tough, because it's just a different market. 208 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,320 You get such an influx of recreational better money that 209 00:11:41,399 --> 00:11:44,720 the sportsbooks aren't really even concerned about what the shark 210 00:11:44,799 --> 00:11:46,759 betters are doing, especially when it comes to signs are 211 00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:49,559 totals more so in the props and stuff like that. 212 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,720 So that's why we fired a five percent on the 213 00:11:52,759 --> 00:11:57,559 college football all playoff games and I think five percent's 214 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,320 coming in the wild card games already released four percent 215 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,320 and confirm multiples, so we will be getting an action 216 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:09,279 for sure. And steam Room will be Sunday as usual. 217 00:12:09,399 --> 00:12:12,279 I will be in Philadelphia, but nothing's going to change, 218 00:12:12,519 --> 00:12:17,000 and we will lead into that first game the hour 219 00:12:17,159 --> 00:12:20,360 prior and go through all those wild Card games, all 220 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,879 the live action that's come in. Remember last week's steam Room, 221 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,240 how all that late information that you just can't use. 222 00:12:27,279 --> 00:12:29,600 It's just two time sensitive. We were able to pick 223 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,320 up some extra profits. So that's the plan for this 224 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:37,200 week up already for twenty twenty six. Just grinding, grinding, grinding, 225 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:43,159 keep bets sizes disciplined, and we'll do just fine. Now, 226 00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:49,519 best bets, I'm gonna go straight to Green Bay and Chicago. Now. 227 00:12:49,919 --> 00:12:53,200 I've been hard on Chicago, and the reason for that 228 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,080 is simple. They're a team that's gotten very lucky this year, 229 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,159 winning one score games like they have. That's very hard 230 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:07,120 to sustain. They're doing it with a quarterback in Caleb 231 00:13:07,159 --> 00:13:14,279 Williams who's twenty ninth in passing success rate. Again, the 232 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:19,120 stats just back up what everyone thinks about Chicago, that 233 00:13:19,279 --> 00:13:23,000 their mediocre team that's gotten a lot of good luck 234 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,080 green Bay. On the flip side, I think they're a 235 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:31,799 lot more legit. We look at the defense for green Bay, 236 00:13:32,799 --> 00:13:35,159 I think they're gonna give Chicago a lot of problems, 237 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,000 even though this one's in Chicago. When you look at 238 00:13:38,039 --> 00:13:43,039 green Bay, other than that Baltimore game, this defense been 239 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:47,039 on point. And they're coming in limpin offensively, having lost 240 00:13:47,039 --> 00:13:52,480 four straight games and only putting up three last week 241 00:13:52,519 --> 00:13:57,080 against Minnesota. But I think that bodes well for this 242 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,279 betting line and why we don't have green Bay going 243 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,320 in there as the Power Ratings suggests as the favorite, 244 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,320 because let's not forget we have history between these two teams. 245 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,440 They've already played and we saw in the first game 246 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:14,159 what the line was, we saw on the second game 247 00:14:14,159 --> 00:14:16,279 what the line was, and the books are gonna do 248 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,200 the exact same thing, and let us try to figure 249 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,600 it out. And that's why this line's sitting about pick. 250 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,039 Depending on where you shot, one team's gonna be a 251 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,159 one point favorite one way or another, and I don't 252 00:14:25,159 --> 00:14:28,000 think that's gonna change. But I'm gonna go with the 253 00:14:28,039 --> 00:14:30,919 experience of Green Bay. I'm gonna go with the team 254 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:36,600 that's better on paper. That's Green Bay, and I'm gonna 255 00:14:36,679 --> 00:14:41,879 look for Chicago exit the playoffs be one of the 256 00:14:41,879 --> 00:14:44,360 first phonies to get tossed out. So give me green 257 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,480 Bay how to pick them or minus one, and we'll 258 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:48,759 see if we could hit our best bet. 259 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, we're gonna break down the next 260 00:14:54,159 --> 00:14:57,720 game in the rotation at least, well, actually it's the 261 00:14:57,720 --> 00:14:58,679 first game of the rotation. 262 00:14:58,759 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 2: On Saturday, s. 263 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,919 Speaker 1: Angels Rams are headed to Carolina again. This is the 264 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,480 second time this season. This one opened ten now eleven 265 00:15:06,519 --> 00:15:10,240 at Circa eleven, at super book forty six and a half. 266 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:11,559 Speaker 2: Here is the total. 267 00:15:12,559 --> 00:15:15,759 Speaker 1: Let's talk about teams playing each other twice, right, These 268 00:15:15,759 --> 00:15:19,399 teams are not in the same division or even conference, 269 00:15:19,559 --> 00:15:22,519 yet they're playing each other again. If you guys remember 270 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,120 last time the Rams went into Carolina and ruined a 271 00:15:25,159 --> 00:15:30,159 lot of people Sunday in terms of survivor, Marco, breakdown 272 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,240 this one for us, But before you do, let me 273 00:15:32,279 --> 00:15:34,240 know what you have going on over at wager talk 274 00:15:34,279 --> 00:15:34,879 dot com. 275 00:15:35,559 --> 00:15:38,039 Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, we've got a special running site wide and 276 00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:39,960 you can get it on any capper and it's the 277 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,320 best way to go. You can pick up a seven 278 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:47,600 day all access package for the price of three. That's right, 279 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:50,120 We're giving you seven days for the price of three. 280 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:54,279 That's just sixty nine dollars. You'll get every play every sport, 281 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,799 and that includes five percent plays. You know, those five 282 00:15:56,799 --> 00:16:00,720 percent plays sell for thirty five dollars each. Looks like 283 00:16:00,759 --> 00:16:03,919 we will have a five percent this weekend, about eighty 284 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,799 percent certain that we're gonna have one. We hit one 285 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:12,720 last week waiting just finalizing weather conditions and final injury reports. 286 00:16:12,759 --> 00:16:17,279 But check that out on the site Saturday for sure 287 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,000 and grab a seven day all access. And as they said, 288 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,080 those five percent plays we hit with Seattle last week, 289 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:26,440 bringing the record to forty one and eighteen on those 290 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:31,639 five percent plays. Going back to February of twenty twenty four, Kelly, 291 00:16:31,679 --> 00:16:33,960 for this game, you know you talked about ruined a 292 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:38,360 lot of people's Sundays whenever Carolina beat the Rams that day. 293 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,000 You know whose Sunday didn't ruin mine? Because we had 294 00:16:42,039 --> 00:16:45,080 Carolina and we gave it out right here on the show. 295 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,960 Got a lot of grief for that play. In the 296 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:52,240 content section prior to the game, it was crickets afterwards, 297 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,919 of course, because Carolina won, nobody come back and talked 298 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,320 to any smack after that, but it was all about 299 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:02,600 the situation. You got to trust the process, as I say, 300 00:17:02,679 --> 00:17:05,440 and whenever you go back and look at that game, 301 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:09,200 you'll understand why we had Carolina, and you're also going 302 00:17:09,279 --> 00:17:14,480 to understand why I'm flipping sides this time around. Scheduling wise, 303 00:17:14,519 --> 00:17:17,960 we'll start with the obvious. Carolina gets the advantage of 304 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,400 playing at home and they played on Saturday last week, 305 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,839 so they get an extra day of prep, where the 306 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,279 Rams played last week on Sunday. Now, speaking of the 307 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,640 Rams playing, coach McVeagh did something out of the norm 308 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,680 last week. He played as starters in the final week 309 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,799 of the season when they were pretty much locked into 310 00:17:38,839 --> 00:17:40,119 the position that they were going. 311 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: To be in. 312 00:17:41,039 --> 00:17:43,319 Speaker 4: Why did he do that because he wasn't happy with 313 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,599 the way the team played over its last final games. 314 00:17:46,839 --> 00:17:48,680 He wanted to send a message, mean, he wanted to 315 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,519 get them all clicking and on the same page. And 316 00:17:52,559 --> 00:17:56,440 well he did that. The Rams went out last week 317 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,160 and put up thirty seven points. Granted it was against 318 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,400 hapless Arizona that just couldn't wait for the season to 319 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,039 end and fire their coach, but he got the job done. 320 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:09,680 What he wanted. So now we're gonna go back to 321 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:14,079 that game on November thirtieth, when as ten point favorites 322 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,039 they went to Carolina and lost outright thirty one to 323 00:18:17,079 --> 00:18:20,759 twenty eight. When you look at what led up to 324 00:18:20,839 --> 00:18:24,559 that game and why I was on Carolina, the Rams 325 00:18:24,559 --> 00:18:28,920 were in an absolute horrible scheduling spot. They had just 326 00:18:29,039 --> 00:18:31,839 finished winning their sixth game in a row. But if 327 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,279 you look at their last three games in a row 328 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,799 during that six game winning streak, you understand why it 329 00:18:37,839 --> 00:18:41,279 was a flat spot. The Rams, three weeks before the 330 00:18:41,279 --> 00:18:45,240 Carolina game, played San Francisco in a huge revenge game, 331 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:50,400 and at that time they were playing for the division 332 00:18:50,799 --> 00:18:54,960 because San Francisco upset them on that Thursday night game. 333 00:18:55,079 --> 00:18:57,880 Remember when San Francisco didn't have anybody to play in 334 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,079 that game, it seemed late and they found a way 335 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,000 to win. That was a big revenge game. They followed 336 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,880 that big revenge game up the following week when they 337 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:12,279 played Seattle. The Seattle battle was for first place, sole 338 00:19:12,319 --> 00:19:16,640 possession of the division, and they beat Seattle in that one. 339 00:19:16,799 --> 00:19:19,519 It was a hard fought two point win, but it 340 00:19:19,599 --> 00:19:23,119 was a huge win. And if that wasn't enough, they 341 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,960 blew out Tampa Bay. We say, well, so what Tampa 342 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,680 Bay blowing them out? Tampa Bay limp down the stretch. 343 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,000 That was a Sunday night football game, so it was 344 00:19:31,039 --> 00:19:34,480 on national TV and everybody saw it. So they traveled 345 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,799 across country to play Carolina after those three monster wins, 346 00:19:38,839 --> 00:19:44,119 filling all fat and sassy, and what happened. Stafford had 347 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,240 his worst game of the season. Three turnovers in that game. 348 00:19:47,319 --> 00:19:50,359 They were minus three in the turnover department, and yet 349 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,240 they still only lost by three points in that game. 350 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,279 The Rams will be ready to play this time. That's 351 00:19:56,279 --> 00:19:59,519 why McVeigh played them last week and played them well 352 00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:03,400 in to they were putting up points in the fourth quarter. 353 00:20:03,799 --> 00:20:06,599 He had his pedal to the medal. He wanted to 354 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,839 get all the kinks worked out of the system. They 355 00:20:09,839 --> 00:20:13,480 will have a quick start in this game. Carolina. They 356 00:20:13,519 --> 00:20:15,599 couldn't get out of their own way last week and 357 00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:19,480 they've struggled offensively down the stretch. Where I'm going, I'm 358 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,359 gonna take the Rams, but I'm not going to go 359 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,599 for the full game. I'm gonna go for the Rams 360 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,079 first half. So instead of us laying ten and a half, 361 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,759 which we're actually starting to see a couple elevens. We 362 00:20:28,799 --> 00:20:33,559 can get the Rams minus six and a half. Probably 363 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,000 I'll push to seven if you wait the game day, 364 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,160 grab the Rams first half. I think they hit the 365 00:20:39,839 --> 00:20:44,240 ground running. They're gonna be focused again. Stafford had a 366 00:20:44,279 --> 00:20:46,839 horrible game. He's gonna want to come out on fire. 367 00:20:47,079 --> 00:20:50,079 And if you're Carolina, think about it. You're gonna come 368 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:53,279 out very conservative in this game. You've got a quarterback 369 00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:57,440 that has no playoff experience in brace Young. You're not 370 00:20:57,599 --> 00:21:00,640 gonna put him in harm's way early, going to try 371 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:05,119 to get him some short passes the run game. The 372 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,039 Rams are gonna come out quick. Let's go first half. 373 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,319 Lay it with the Rams. That's my best bet, all right. 374 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 1: And the last, but not least, my best bet. Buffalo 375 00:21:15,319 --> 00:21:18,119 opened as a one point favorite. 376 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 2: We saw this one. 377 00:21:18,799 --> 00:21:21,039 Speaker 1: Get as high as well. Buffalo minus one and a 378 00:21:21,079 --> 00:21:23,799 half total fifty one and a half. Now we got 379 00:21:23,839 --> 00:21:27,720 pick'em's at a lot of different shops except for the 380 00:21:27,759 --> 00:21:30,160 square ones still minus one up there on the odds 381 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,440 loger screen. Fifty two's, fifty two and a half's even 382 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,960 starting to pop up right now, And ultimately you kind 383 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,960 of have to wonder which Jacksonville Jaguars team you're gonna get. 384 00:21:42,599 --> 00:21:44,519 And I kind of think we're gonna get the good 385 00:21:44,759 --> 00:21:49,319 Jacksonville Jaguars team this weekend. I know it sounds crazy 386 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,799 because the Jags, they just don't GrITT it. 387 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 2: It don't make the postseason very often. Let's be honest. 388 00:21:54,319 --> 00:21:58,079 Speaker 1: This is the fourth time since two thousand they made 389 00:21:58,079 --> 00:22:00,559 the postseason and the last time they did. You guys, 390 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,880 remember I had them against the Chargers. I went to 391 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,400 Bett it was twenty seven to nothing, and I woke 392 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,440 up and it's like, how did I win that football game? 393 00:22:09,519 --> 00:22:12,079 And they became the first football team ever to win 394 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:16,720 a playoff game with a minus five turnover differential. Let's 395 00:22:16,759 --> 00:22:19,960 see kind of how this Jacksonville team, who is won 396 00:22:20,039 --> 00:22:23,480 and covered their final eight games to win the AFC South, 397 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,599 plays against the Buffalo Bills. 398 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: We all love Buffalo. We know they're fun, they. 399 00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:33,079 Speaker 1: Have a great offense. They've got one of the best 400 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,279 players in the NFL, and that is well, hello. 401 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 2: A little guy named Josh Allen. But I'm not. 402 00:22:39,839 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: Sure that this Buffalo team can go into Jacksonville and 403 00:22:44,759 --> 00:22:45,319 get the win. 404 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 2: And I think this line is very telling. 405 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: Moving to a pick them here, we'll see if this 406 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,480 one doesn't come down to the wire, and if it does, 407 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,000 Jacksonville's get the best kicker in the NFL and Cam 408 00:22:58,039 --> 00:23:01,240 Little remember the guy that just made a six. I 409 00:23:01,279 --> 00:23:03,880 think it was a couple of weeks ago against the Titans. 410 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,559 I've just not been that impressed with the Bills this year. 411 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,480 And I know a lot of people are gonna argue 412 00:23:10,519 --> 00:23:13,119 that Jacksonville played a week schedule over the second half 413 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,720 of the season, but I don't think it matters. I 414 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:21,799 think this team has enough grit and enough defense. Yeah, 415 00:23:21,839 --> 00:23:24,720 I said it to be able to beat the Buffalo Bills. 416 00:23:24,759 --> 00:23:28,160 I like Jacksonville to win the game. Bet them on 417 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:33,039 the money line and we'll see you guys next week 418 00:23:33,519 --> 00:23:37,200 for the first round, not the wildcard weekend of the 419 00:23:37,319 --> 00:23:41,079 NFL playoffs. Kelly Stewart here, Marco D'Angelo, Janni the Grieg. 420 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,000 Make sure you guys if you get a chance to 421 00:23:43,079 --> 00:23:46,839 check out the college football Semifinals video we just did 422 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,920 right up here on wager talk dot com. 423 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 2: And until next week, let's bet on it.