Speaker 1: The NFL playoffs are underway, and we're gonna get right
into wild Card Weekend up next on bet on It.
Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, Yanni the Greek. We're gonna break
down all six wild Card weekend games for you guys today.
Speaker 2: On bet on It.
Speaker 1: But we're gonna go a little out of order because
I still made the guys pick one game as a
best bet, but I wanted to make sure we previewed
all We almost started off with the Monday night football game,
and I said, no, no, no, Marco, you gotta go.
We got at least for my ad D, we gotta
at least make it the third one. So we're gonna
start off with VR. He is gonna go up first.
I've got my Odds logic screen up because I want
to make sure that these Lions have not moved too
crazy yet. We've got the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night.
Speaker 2: Football headed to New England.
Speaker 1: New England opened a three and a half point favorite,
and it looks like it's still sitting right there.
Speaker 2: Across the board.
Speaker 1: Totals ticked up from forty five and a half forty
six forty six and a half at the hard Rock
here in Florida, and forty six and a half they're
in Las Vegas at the Westgates Super Book VR breakdown
this one for me. I know, I've been screaming all
season long how fraudulent the New England Patriots are, and
then Baltimore Ravens did them no favors the other night,
not a single one, because now they've only beaten one
ranked team, not ranked, excuse me, not ranked. I've been
just doing the College Football Show. Guys, have only beaten
one team with a winning record, right, that's kind of
telling me. I like, Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Not
sure I'm gonna get to the window. Maybe you can
convince me.
Speaker 3: Well, I have a future on the Chargers. It's a
free roll because we hit our season win total over
so we're just letting that free roll go with the Chargers. Again,
I have them power rated fifteenth, so they're not even
a top ten team as far as power rating goes.
With that said, New England's right at eleven on my
power ratings, and I agree with you, New England isn't
all that impressive because of their strength of schedule. But
with all that said, they still have a plus one
hundred and seventy point differential, And we talk about it
in MMA all the time. With strength of schedule, you
can only fight who's in front of you, and if
you're running through these guys, that shouldn't be a knock
on you. Now, again, you shouldn't give a ton of
credit when the strength of schedule is weak, but when
they're running through teams like they're doing, it isn't really
a knock. And that's the problem I'm having here because
when I look at the Chargers, sure, New England's had
the thirty second toughest strength of schedule, but the Chargers
are twenty seven, only four or five higher. And when
I look at the stats, even with that very easy
strength of schedule, there's still a twenty first, twenty second
most efficient offense. So they've had a really easy strength
of schedule and a very non impressive offense. And now
you're going to play a New England team that is
a lot more balanced now on the defensive side of
the balls, where the Chargers, you know, are top ten,
And I think that's why, with the recency bias, you're
seeing this total lower than what my power ratings reflect.
Because I have this number closer to forty eight than
forty six. But when I look at the Chargers, they
only put up three points last week, sixteen points the
week before that they had a big game against Dallas,
but prior to that they put up sixteen and twenty two.
So in three of their last four games they put
up sixteen or less points. I look in New England. Now,
New England put up points all right, but their opponents haven't.
They've held the last two opponents to ten and ten.
And the only reason New England's games have been flying
over is because those totals are lower forty two forty fours.
Now they bump it up a little bit, but I
don't think it's high enough. I haven't again, I haven't
gotten a window with this one. I have with the
best bet, which I'll share. But I'm trying to confirm
this over because again I do think it sets up nicely.
I think the balance of New England and the fact
that the Chargers offense I think has gotten been improved
down this stretch. So the twenty first, twenty second is
the whole season, so I think we're going to see
some more scoring than this number reflect so I'm gonna
go over forty six Chargers and New England.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, we're going to backtrack a little bit
and I am going to break down the forty nine Ers,
taking on to the phillid the Eagles. Currently, this line
is four and a half up from the opening number
three and a half. But it's interesting there's two prominent
books still sitting at that three and a half mark.
Kind of makes your head go, h, what am I
missing here? Forty six and a half was the opener
down to forty four and a half.
Speaker 2: There is still one forty.
Speaker 1: Five left on my odds logic screen, depending on where
you guys like to shop. And as Vre mentioned, he
has a future on the Chargers, and I have the
San Francisco forty nine Ers twenty to one. I give
them to you guys here on bet on It way
back in August, and it looked dead on arrival after
half of the forty nine Ers team became injured.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a rough one.
Speaker 1: Now, hey, they still have significantly better odds to win
the whole thing, but I have a feeling the Eagles
might be the team to come out of the NFC.
You guys, listen, to a couple other shows that I
do several guys that they liked the Eagles out of that,
so I did put a little bit there, and hey, look,
this is an Eagles team that's offensively.
Speaker 2: Been really abysmal over the last couple weeks. But here's
a good news. They didn't care about the two seed
last week.
Speaker 1: They sat everybody, and I'm not sure that that was
a bad move because you've got San Francisco, who was
in a dog fight versus Seattle now having to fly east,
and well, the Eagles are essentially rested. Plus they're gonna
get Lane Johnson back for this one after he's missed
the last seven games. I think you guys need to
understand how significant that is for that offensive line.
Speaker 2: Nick Sirianni has not lost a home.
Speaker 1: Playoff game, and in those five wins, twenty one points
per game is the average margin of victory. And you
guys are gonna say, oh, well, that one against the
forty nine ers and twenty twenty three doesn't count because
brock Perty got injured and was unable to finish the game. Yeah,
I get that, but this is a dominant Eagles team
and I think they step up here late into the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Again, I have a forty nine.
Speaker 1: Ers future, but I'm not overly optimistic about cashing it,
and I kind of wrote it off way back in October.
We'll see how this one ends up playing out, but
I think I will be sprinkling just a little bit
on the Philadelphia Eagles minus four and a half. Now
we're gonna move on to Monday Night football. Marco D'Angelo
is going to talk about his own team because he
knows them better than anybody else.
Speaker 2: The Houston Texans.
Speaker 1: On the road at Pittsburgh as three point road.
Speaker 2: Favorites, and this one has not seemed to move at all.
Speaker 1: Open three still three thirty nine and a half is
the total still thirty nine and a half across the board,
at least on my Odds logic screen. Marco D'Angelo, what
say you about your Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 4: Well, I hope the priest is there to bless the
field again before the start of the game. But can
you give a priest the game ball? I'm not sure.
But these two coaches, they are like Siamese twins really
when you look at their coaching styles. Demiko Rans and
Mike Tomlin both don't like to take chances on offense.
Both want to rely on their defenses and play the
field position game. And the problem for the Steelers here
is the Houston defense is way better than the Steeler defense.
You saw the breakdowns in the Steeler defense on that
game on Monday night last week or Sunday night, I'm sorry,
and that was Lamar Jackson just keeping plays alive, escaping
plays where he should have been sacked for ten or
fifteen yard losses, and then find somebody wide open downfield.
Here's the problem that we're going to see in this game.
Pittsburgh likes to run the football, but Houston's held eight
of their last eleven opponents to one hundred or fewer yards. Right,
Houston's held fourteen of their seventeen opponents this year to
twenty one or fewer yards. This is a spot where
Pittsburgh's gonna have trouble scoring. Now. They will get Metcalf
back this week. Why is that huge? Just because he's
coming back, we know he's going to be the focus
of attention from the Houston defense. The fact that he
missed the last two games, it forced Aaron Rodgers to
get other receivers involved in the offense, and you saw
that especially Sunday Night, is he went to Austin Friarmuth
got back in the mix with the passes, even the
feeling caught a pass. It made the other receivers better,
and it made Rogers have confidence in going to the
other players where they're gonna be able to move the football,
hitting some of those plays where Metcalf now will get
those double teams and he can go to somebody else
with confidence, which he wasn't doing most of the season.
It was Metcalf first look or then a check down
to gain Well, now he's got more people involved. So
I think Pittsburgh will have a little more success moving
the football, but you're not going to have those big
chunk plays. What's that mean again? Going back to the
field position, where am I heading with all of this?
You're looking at a total of thirty nine and a half?
Are we back, you know, fifteen years ago in totals
the slow but it warrants it in this game because
of the style of coaching, the defenses involved, in the
way the offenses play. I'm gonna go ahead and take
this one under the total. And if you remember the
Sunday Night game, it was thirteen to ten midway, you know,
almost the midway point of the fourth quarter. It was
a stone cold under on Monday night. But those big plays,
the broken defenses that made them flip the score, those
were lead changing plays. Had to have the other team
keep answering if a team has the lead and the ball.
Both of these coaches do the same thing. Run Run, Run.
I'm taking under thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into those best bets for Wildcard weekend.
Speaker 4: VR.
Speaker 1: You're gonna go up first, you're gonna break down this
Green Bay Chicago game.
Speaker 2: But before you do, let everybody know what you've.
Speaker 1: Got up for the NFL playoffs over at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've been waiting for the playoffs.
Speaker 3: I mean, postseason has always been profitable, even when the
regular season has been tough, because it's just a different market.
You get such an influx of recreational better money that
the sportsbooks aren't really even concerned about what the shark
betters are doing, especially when it comes to signs are
totals more so in the props and stuff like that.
So that's why we fired a five percent on the
college football all playoff games and I think five percent's
coming in the wild card games already released four percent
and confirm multiples, so we will be getting an action
for sure. And steam Room will be Sunday as usual.
I will be in Philadelphia, but nothing's going to change,
and we will lead into that first game the hour
prior and go through all those wild Card games, all
the live action that's come in. Remember last week's steam Room,
how all that late information that you just can't use.
It's just two time sensitive. We were able to pick
up some extra profits. So that's the plan for this
week up already for twenty twenty six. Just grinding, grinding, grinding,
keep bets sizes disciplined, and we'll do just fine. Now,
best bets, I'm gonna go straight to Green Bay and Chicago. Now.
I've been hard on Chicago, and the reason for that
is simple. They're a team that's gotten very lucky this year,
winning one score games like they have. That's very hard
to sustain. They're doing it with a quarterback in Caleb
Williams who's twenty ninth in passing success rate. Again, the
stats just back up what everyone thinks about Chicago, that
their mediocre team that's gotten a lot of good luck
green Bay. On the flip side, I think they're a
lot more legit. We look at the defense for green Bay,
I think they're gonna give Chicago a lot of problems,
even though this one's in Chicago. When you look at
green Bay, other than that Baltimore game, this defense been
on point. And they're coming in limpin offensively, having lost
four straight games and only putting up three last week
against Minnesota. But I think that bodes well for this
betting line and why we don't have green Bay going
in there as the Power Ratings suggests as the favorite,
because let's not forget we have history between these two teams.
They've already played and we saw in the first game
what the line was, we saw on the second game
what the line was, and the books are gonna do
the exact same thing, and let us try to figure
it out. And that's why this line's sitting about pick.
Depending on where you shot, one team's gonna be a
one point favorite one way or another, and I don't
think that's gonna change. But I'm gonna go with the
experience of Green Bay. I'm gonna go with the team
that's better on paper. That's Green Bay, and I'm gonna
look for Chicago exit the playoffs be one of the
first phonies to get tossed out. So give me green
Bay how to pick them or minus one, and we'll
see if we could hit our best bet.
Speaker 1: All right, Marco DiAngelo, we're gonna break down the next
game in the rotation at least, well, actually it's the
first game of the rotation.
Speaker 2: On Saturday, s.
Speaker 1: Angels Rams are headed to Carolina again. This is the
second time this season. This one opened ten now eleven
at Circa eleven, at super book forty six and a half.
Speaker 2: Here is the total.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about teams playing each other twice, right, These
teams are not in the same division or even conference,
yet they're playing each other again. If you guys remember
last time the Rams went into Carolina and ruined a
lot of people Sunday in terms of survivor, Marco, breakdown
this one for us, But before you do, let me
know what you have going on over at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, we've got a special running site wide and
you can get it on any capper and it's the
best way to go. You can pick up a seven
day all access package for the price of three. That's right,
We're giving you seven days for the price of three.
That's just sixty nine dollars. You'll get every play every sport,
and that includes five percent plays. You know, those five
percent plays sell for thirty five dollars each. Looks like
we will have a five percent this weekend, about eighty
percent certain that we're gonna have one. We hit one
last week waiting just finalizing weather conditions and final injury reports.
But check that out on the site Saturday for sure
and grab a seven day all access. And as they said,
those five percent plays we hit with Seattle last week,
bringing the record to forty one and eighteen on those
five percent plays. Going back to February of twenty twenty four, Kelly,
for this game, you know you talked about ruined a
lot of people's Sundays whenever Carolina beat the Rams that day.
You know whose Sunday didn't ruin mine? Because we had
Carolina and we gave it out right here on the show.
Got a lot of grief for that play. In the
content section prior to the game, it was crickets afterwards,
of course, because Carolina won, nobody come back and talked
to any smack after that, but it was all about
the situation. You got to trust the process, as I say,
and whenever you go back and look at that game,
you'll understand why we had Carolina, and you're also going
to understand why I'm flipping sides this time around. Scheduling wise,
we'll start with the obvious. Carolina gets the advantage of
playing at home and they played on Saturday last week,
so they get an extra day of prep, where the
Rams played last week on Sunday. Now, speaking of the
Rams playing, coach McVeagh did something out of the norm
last week. He played as starters in the final week
of the season when they were pretty much locked into
the position that they were going.
Speaker 2: To be in.
Speaker 4: Why did he do that because he wasn't happy with
the way the team played over its last final games.
He wanted to send a message, mean, he wanted to
get them all clicking and on the same page. And
well he did that. The Rams went out last week
and put up thirty seven points. Granted it was against
hapless Arizona that just couldn't wait for the season to
end and fire their coach, but he got the job done.
What he wanted. So now we're gonna go back to
that game on November thirtieth, when as ten point favorites
they went to Carolina and lost outright thirty one to
twenty eight. When you look at what led up to
that game and why I was on Carolina, the Rams
were in an absolute horrible scheduling spot. They had just
finished winning their sixth game in a row. But if
you look at their last three games in a row
during that six game winning streak, you understand why it
was a flat spot. The Rams, three weeks before the
Carolina game, played San Francisco in a huge revenge game,
and at that time they were playing for the division
because San Francisco upset them on that Thursday night game.
Remember when San Francisco didn't have anybody to play in
that game, it seemed late and they found a way
to win. That was a big revenge game. They followed
that big revenge game up the following week when they
played Seattle. The Seattle battle was for first place, sole
possession of the division, and they beat Seattle in that one.
It was a hard fought two point win, but it
was a huge win. And if that wasn't enough, they
blew out Tampa Bay. We say, well, so what Tampa
Bay blowing them out? Tampa Bay limp down the stretch.
That was a Sunday night football game, so it was
on national TV and everybody saw it. So they traveled
across country to play Carolina after those three monster wins,
filling all fat and sassy, and what happened. Stafford had
his worst game of the season. Three turnovers in that game.
They were minus three in the turnover department, and yet
they still only lost by three points in that game.
The Rams will be ready to play this time. That's
why McVeigh played them last week and played them well
in to they were putting up points in the fourth quarter.
He had his pedal to the medal. He wanted to
get all the kinks worked out of the system. They
will have a quick start in this game. Carolina. They
couldn't get out of their own way last week and
they've struggled offensively down the stretch. Where I'm going, I'm
gonna take the Rams, but I'm not going to go
for the full game. I'm gonna go for the Rams
first half. So instead of us laying ten and a half,
which we're actually starting to see a couple elevens. We
can get the Rams minus six and a half. Probably
I'll push to seven if you wait the game day,
grab the Rams first half. I think they hit the
ground running. They're gonna be focused again. Stafford had a
horrible game. He's gonna want to come out on fire.
And if you're Carolina, think about it. You're gonna come
out very conservative in this game. You've got a quarterback
that has no playoff experience in brace Young. You're not
gonna put him in harm's way early, going to try
to get him some short passes the run game. The
Rams are gonna come out quick. Let's go first half.
Lay it with the Rams. That's my best bet, all right.
Speaker 1: And the last, but not least, my best bet. Buffalo
opened as a one point favorite.
Speaker 2: We saw this one.
Speaker 1: Get as high as well. Buffalo minus one and a
half total fifty one and a half. Now we got
pick'em's at a lot of different shops except for the
square ones still minus one up there on the odds
loger screen. Fifty two's, fifty two and a half's even
starting to pop up right now, And ultimately you kind
of have to wonder which Jacksonville Jaguars team you're gonna get.
And I kind of think we're gonna get the good
Jacksonville Jaguars team this weekend. I know it sounds crazy
because the Jags, they just don't GrITT it.
Speaker 2: It don't make the postseason very often. Let's be honest.
Speaker 1: This is the fourth time since two thousand they made
the postseason and the last time they did. You guys,
remember I had them against the Chargers. I went to
Bett it was twenty seven to nothing, and I woke
up and it's like, how did I win that football game?
And they became the first football team ever to win
a playoff game with a minus five turnover differential. Let's
see kind of how this Jacksonville team, who is won
and covered their final eight games to win the AFC South,
plays against the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: We all love Buffalo. We know they're fun, they.
Speaker 1: Have a great offense. They've got one of the best
players in the NFL, and that is well, hello.
Speaker 2: A little guy named Josh Allen. But I'm not.
Speaker 1: Sure that this Buffalo team can go into Jacksonville and
get the win.
Speaker 2: And I think this line is very telling.
Speaker 1: Moving to a pick them here, we'll see if this
one doesn't come down to the wire, and if it does,
Jacksonville's get the best kicker in the NFL and Cam
Little remember the guy that just made a six. I
think it was a couple of weeks ago against the Titans.
I've just not been that impressed with the Bills this year.
And I know a lot of people are gonna argue
that Jacksonville played a week schedule over the second half
of the season, but I don't think it matters. I
think this team has enough grit and enough defense. Yeah,
I said it to be able to beat the Buffalo Bills.
I like Jacksonville to win the game. Bet them on
the money line and we'll see you guys next week
for the first round, not the wildcard weekend of the
NFL playoffs. Kelly Stewart here, Marco D'Angelo, Janni the Grieg.
Make sure you guys if you get a chance to
check out the college football Semifinals video we just did
right up here on wager talk dot com.
Speaker 2: And until next week, let's bet on it.