WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.840 --> 00:00:03.560 Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:06.879 I'm here with Jonathan Hacket, Mick Molroy, Mark poly Moroopolis, 3 00:00:07.320 --> 00:00:10.720 and myself. A lot, a lot has happened in the 4 00:00:10.800 --> 00:00:14.359 last week since we left you last. We just found 5 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:17.280 out this morning Lindsay Graham, Senator from South Carolina, passed 6 00:00:17.280 --> 00:00:21.239 away suddenly in his house, recently returned from a Ukraine trip. 7 00:00:23.280 --> 00:00:28.359 You know, very sad to see any anyone die. Really, yeah, 8 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:33.280 I don't, you know, rest in peace, Lindsay. A lot 9 00:00:33.359 --> 00:00:35.119 happening to if you got you want to, just want 10 00:00:35.159 --> 00:00:36.799 to say a little bit about Lindsay first and then 11 00:00:36.799 --> 00:00:39.719 we'll get into the Iran stuff. 12 00:00:41.240 --> 00:00:41.840 Marko. 13 00:00:42.320 --> 00:00:43.920 Yes, I mean, you know, one of the things that 14 00:00:43.920 --> 00:00:45.640 that I mean is very complicated legacy. 15 00:00:45.679 --> 00:00:46.159 I think, first of. 16 00:00:46.159 --> 00:00:48.240 All, in a time like this, you know everyone and 17 00:00:48.280 --> 00:00:50.520 you go on social media, everyone has a propensity to 18 00:00:50.560 --> 00:00:51.640 say kind of shitty stuff. 19 00:00:51.679 --> 00:00:52.799 So it's not the time for that. 20 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:55.600 Because clearly he you know, he had he has had 21 00:00:55.640 --> 00:00:59.520 an evolution from a kind of foreign policy giant to 22 00:00:59.600 --> 00:01:01.960 someone to a kind of a sycophant for Trump. But 23 00:01:02.039 --> 00:01:04.840 I think that that ultimately, you know, his you know, 24 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:08.079 his heart was always with the notion that the US 25 00:01:08.799 --> 00:01:12.560 is stronger when we have a robust, aggressive foreign policy, 26 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:15.640 when we have a strong national defense, strong intelligence services, 27 00:01:15.640 --> 00:01:17.920 where we do champion human rights and democracy. And he, 28 00:01:18.200 --> 00:01:19.879 you know, he, I mean, he passed away after he 29 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:23.040 came back from Ukraine, and that's something where he differed 30 00:01:23.079 --> 00:01:26.640 with Trump, you know, you know, very strongly on So, 31 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:29.159 you know, lots of stuff in the in the news 32 00:01:29.159 --> 00:01:31.159 about him, but I think his relevance will be that 33 00:01:31.200 --> 00:01:34.239 he was relevant on foreign policy. And for those of 34 00:01:34.319 --> 00:01:36.560 us in the US government who had a chance to 35 00:01:36.760 --> 00:01:39.920 ever see him during congressional delegations, which he was on constantly, 36 00:01:40.959 --> 00:01:43.319 he generally was on the right side of issues, and 37 00:01:43.359 --> 00:01:46.319 so put aside his you know, the politics of it. 38 00:01:46.359 --> 00:01:48.560 And and I was joking with Mick before in the 39 00:01:48.560 --> 00:01:51.959 green room, there's always this this this story that kind 40 00:01:51.959 --> 00:01:53.319 of is in our circles. And I don't know if 41 00:01:53.359 --> 00:01:55.079 it's right or wrong, and if if it's right, I 42 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:57.439 probably can't say it. But it's a story that him 43 00:01:57.480 --> 00:01:59.640 and John McCain, his you know, best friend for a 44 00:01:59.640 --> 00:02:02.159 long time, came to one of our bases in the 45 00:02:02.159 --> 00:02:05.079 war zones and they helped launch some mortars at Taliban 46 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.120 positions from Afghanistan into Pakistan. And then I think that 47 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:10.240 endeared him with a lot of people of art Ilk 48 00:02:11.800 --> 00:02:14.159 and so leave the politics aside of it afterwards. Certainly 49 00:02:14.240 --> 00:02:16.800 someone who's relevant, I would say that's probably a fair 50 00:02:17.000 --> 00:02:19.280 a political thing to say. The relevant in terms of 51 00:02:19.280 --> 00:02:19.919 foreign policy. 52 00:02:21.479 --> 00:02:24.520 Yeah, so I briefed them many times. I think he 53 00:02:25.639 --> 00:02:29.159 at his best, you know, I'm just talking foreign policy, 54 00:02:29.800 --> 00:02:34.840 not the personal stuff when he was with John McCain, right, 55 00:02:35.120 --> 00:02:37.479 I agree with what Mark said. He was a champion 56 00:02:37.560 --> 00:02:42.439 for what I would like to see for the United States, 57 00:02:42.879 --> 00:02:47.159 be the leader of the free world. Look out for democracies, 58 00:02:47.479 --> 00:02:50.680 individual liberties around the world, be willing to. 59 00:02:50.599 --> 00:02:52.520 Fight when you have to. Right. 60 00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:56.520 Passivity is not a virtue if it is at the 61 00:02:56.560 --> 00:02:57.360 expense of liberty. 62 00:02:57.439 --> 00:02:57.639 Right. 63 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:03.120 So I think that was, you know, from a legacy perspective, 64 00:03:04.639 --> 00:03:08.719 his biggest contributions, and hopefully that continues in both parties. 65 00:03:09.280 --> 00:03:16.479 Right Republican Party included, have the Reagan kind of ideology, 66 00:03:16.520 --> 00:03:20.280 come back philosophy, I should say. And then another interesting point, 67 00:03:20.319 --> 00:03:22.080 because I'm breathed in a couple times in his office, 68 00:03:22.120 --> 00:03:26.400 but I learned this is that he became the parent 69 00:03:26.479 --> 00:03:28.360 if you will, a guardian of his sister when he 70 00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:33.400 was nineteen as he was orphaned. So he did overcome 71 00:03:33.719 --> 00:03:36.199 some serious challenges in his life, and I think it's 72 00:03:36.199 --> 00:03:39.719 important to point that out. So, but you know, here's 73 00:03:40.000 --> 00:03:42.479 thoughts to him. There were his family, I should say, 74 00:03:42.520 --> 00:03:45.719 and those at his colleagues and his friends. 75 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:49.560 John, have you met Senator Graham in your travel. 76 00:03:49.599 --> 00:03:51.879 I haven't seen him on a codell, But I think 77 00:03:51.919 --> 00:03:54.080 that even if you disagree with his foreign policy, you 78 00:03:54.080 --> 00:03:56.719 have to appreciate that he was informed. And I think 79 00:03:56.719 --> 00:03:59.080 a lot of people in Congress and the Senate today 80 00:03:59.120 --> 00:04:01.680 are not informed on foreign policy the. 81 00:04:01.599 --> 00:04:02.240 Way that he was. 82 00:04:02.759 --> 00:04:04.879 So you have to appreciate that he actually cared, He 83 00:04:04.919 --> 00:04:07.039 was dedicated. He got out there and actually went on 84 00:04:07.080 --> 00:04:09.479 those codels and was on the ground, not just in 85 00:04:09.479 --> 00:04:12.080 the embassy because you know, the embassy's always usually the 86 00:04:12.080 --> 00:04:13.759 safest place of the country. He got out of the 87 00:04:13.759 --> 00:04:17.240 embassy and actually went out to go see people around US, 88 00:04:17.279 --> 00:04:19.920 people and interests around as we just talked about with 89 00:04:19.959 --> 00:04:22.279 the Afghan example, he did that all over the world, 90 00:04:22.680 --> 00:04:24.639 and he cared about that. So it wasn't that there 91 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:27.839 was just these you know, policy positions that were domestic 92 00:04:28.079 --> 00:04:30.319 to him, like a lot of people today are. Instead, 93 00:04:30.360 --> 00:04:33.399 he was thinking long term about US interests globally, and 94 00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:35.040 I think that's a very important thing to not let 95 00:04:35.120 --> 00:04:36.199 go of and to appreciate. 96 00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:41.079 Right. Yeah, A big topic that he was very much 97 00:04:41.199 --> 00:04:45.560 into is what's going on with Iran. Now obviously the 98 00:04:45.600 --> 00:04:50.040 ceasefire is not is no longer. Iran hit a couple 99 00:04:50.040 --> 00:04:54.240 of ships in straight we retaliated, and then Iran last 100 00:04:54.360 --> 00:04:59.920 night started shooting ballistic missiles and drones at bought Rain. 101 00:05:01.040 --> 00:05:06.759 Uh caught her. I think UAE and I think Oman 102 00:05:06.959 --> 00:05:09.160 got some flak too. No then no mind get like 103 00:05:09.480 --> 00:05:12.639 something had it in the airway, Which was surprising because 104 00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:15.160 you know, it seems like Oman and o Ran are 105 00:05:15.199 --> 00:05:17.600 kind of sort of in lockstep in terms of how 106 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:22.279 to like figure out the straight. If I'm missing anything, Jonathan, 107 00:05:22.279 --> 00:05:24.000 you'd let me know, like fill in the blanks, if 108 00:05:24.040 --> 00:05:26.199 there's anything else in the timeline that we're missing. 109 00:05:27.800 --> 00:05:30.600 Yeah, on that missile debris, that's an important point that 110 00:05:30.839 --> 00:05:35.800 when you fire ballistic missiles there's oftentimes misfires, bad trajectories, miscalculations, 111 00:05:35.839 --> 00:05:38.079 just pieces that come off. And actually in the Gulf 112 00:05:38.079 --> 00:05:40.000 War nineteen ninety one. We saw that when Saddam was 113 00:05:40.040 --> 00:05:43.120 firing scud missiles, some of them landed like way off 114 00:05:43.160 --> 00:05:46.120 target or just went down in the desert in Jordan 115 00:05:46.279 --> 00:05:49.120 and western Iraq and all over the place. So these 116 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:52.160 are very like very imprecise weapons that are based on 117 00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:54.199 the V two rocket that the Germans invented in World 118 00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:57.040 War Two, and they still use basically the same technology. 119 00:05:57.079 --> 00:05:59.879 They're they're pretty uh low tech as far as you 120 00:05:59.879 --> 00:06:02.959 know weapons today are concerned. So if peace fell in Oman, 121 00:06:03.199 --> 00:06:05.879 that would not be shocking. But the problem is that 122 00:06:05.920 --> 00:06:07.639 means the Iranians have to be careful about how they 123 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:09.720 do use their ballistic missiles with the knowledge that they 124 00:06:09.759 --> 00:06:12.959 could malfunction as they're firing and I could backfire, like 125 00:06:13.040 --> 00:06:14.920 the use of it if they're trying to strike Bahrain, 126 00:06:14.959 --> 00:06:17.560 for example, and instead it hits inside of Saudi Arabia, 127 00:06:18.120 --> 00:06:20.399 that could mess up what they're trying to do diplomatically. 128 00:06:20.480 --> 00:06:22.800 So they have to measure carefully how much risk are 129 00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:24.079 be willing to take when we fire each of these 130 00:06:24.120 --> 00:06:26.879 ballistic missiles. And that's a challenge because we talked about 131 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:29.759 previously the decentralized command of control that Iran has over 132 00:06:29.800 --> 00:06:34.560 the IRGC Aerospace Forces. The individual provincial level brigadier generals 133 00:06:34.560 --> 00:06:37.040 in charge of those ballistic missiles can in some ways 134 00:06:37.079 --> 00:06:39.279 fire at will if they think it's the right time, 135 00:06:39.720 --> 00:06:42.120 whereas the central government in Tehran may not be able 136 00:06:42.120 --> 00:06:43.720 to intervene and say, hey, we hold off on those 137 00:06:43.720 --> 00:06:46.079 ballistic missiles today. We're trying to do something here with Oman. 138 00:06:46.600 --> 00:06:48.800 So you might actually get like a dual track problem 139 00:06:48.879 --> 00:06:52.639 where you have the localized IERGC Aerospace Force commander launch 140 00:06:52.639 --> 00:06:55.560 a ballistic missile at a legitimate target in their eyes, 141 00:06:55.959 --> 00:06:58.199 but that the central government in Tehran was like, ah, 142 00:06:58.199 --> 00:06:59.680 we didn't want that to happen right now because we're 143 00:06:59.680 --> 00:07:00.680 trying to do something with Elmand. 144 00:07:00.720 --> 00:07:01.800 So you might see some of that. 145 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:05.319 Cross hairs or crossing of wires as well, which can 146 00:07:05.360 --> 00:07:07.120 be difficult for Iran to juggle. 147 00:07:07.879 --> 00:07:10.560 That seems to be the excuse I think, Jonathan, that 148 00:07:10.600 --> 00:07:13.120 the administration used. I mean, there's really weird reporting over 149 00:07:13.120 --> 00:07:14.680 the last couple of days when they came back and 150 00:07:14.839 --> 00:07:17.959 they're talking about you know, they claim that the Iranians 151 00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:22.079 apologized for some of the strikes, which I frankly don't believe. 152 00:07:22.319 --> 00:07:24.560 That doesn't seem to me, even in the realm of 153 00:07:24.800 --> 00:07:29.199 even remote possibility the scenario you lay out, just because 154 00:07:29.240 --> 00:07:32.399 of the kind of situation they're in in terms of 155 00:07:32.600 --> 00:07:35.000 issues of command and control. I think that is certainly possible, 156 00:07:35.000 --> 00:07:37.079 but it's I don't think an apology came from Iran. 157 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:39.000 And of course all of that, that notion is all 158 00:07:39.040 --> 00:07:41.519 thrown out again after what happened over the last you know, 159 00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:44.839 twelve hours or so, and so this idea of kind 160 00:07:44.839 --> 00:07:47.160 of these these you know, are there really rogue elements? 161 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:50.079 I don't know, but I mean these axios reports that 162 00:07:50.199 --> 00:07:52.240 come out, everyone kind of just rolls their eyes. Now 163 00:07:52.600 --> 00:07:56.120 it's kind of a different alternate reality. I mean, I 164 00:07:56.120 --> 00:07:59.560 think it's what's amazing right now. This entire conflict has 165 00:07:59.600 --> 00:08:01.959 nothing to do with the nuclear program anymore, does not 166 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:03.680 have to do with regime change, doesn't have to do 167 00:08:03.720 --> 00:08:06.279 with ballistic missiles, doesn't have to do with proxies. It's 168 00:08:06.319 --> 00:08:08.759 only about the Strait of Hormuz. And to me, that 169 00:08:08.920 --> 00:08:12.279 is a complete kind of encapsulation of how we have 170 00:08:12.360 --> 00:08:15.199 failed on the policy level on this because I think 171 00:08:15.240 --> 00:08:18.160 Trump will declare victory if the strait is opened, and 172 00:08:18.199 --> 00:08:19.199 so what do we do this for? 173 00:08:20.279 --> 00:08:20.399 Uh? 174 00:08:20.560 --> 00:08:22.480 And I don't even know if I mean, there's now 175 00:08:22.519 --> 00:08:26.199 differing interpretations if the strait is open or not. But 176 00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:28.040 what a what a mess? I mean, it's almost to 177 00:08:28.079 --> 00:08:31.839 the point where, you know, as they climb the escalatory ladder, 178 00:08:31.879 --> 00:08:34.519 I mean, you know, you wonder if the Iranians are 179 00:08:34.559 --> 00:08:38.039 overplaying their hands, and that's certainly possible, but my god, 180 00:08:38.039 --> 00:08:40.360 are they not deterred by us at all? I mean, 181 00:08:40.399 --> 00:08:43.000 it's not working. Whatever we're trying to do is not working, 182 00:08:43.399 --> 00:08:47.039 and I don't know if there's a military solution save 183 00:08:47.159 --> 00:08:49.720 something really dramatic. So it's going to be kind of 184 00:08:49.720 --> 00:08:52.519 interesting to see, what, you know, Carmena, Joint chiefs of 185 00:08:52.600 --> 00:08:55.279 Staff is recommending with Sencom's recommending to the president because 186 00:08:55.320 --> 00:08:58.200 I don't know what the solution is here because you know, Milik, 187 00:08:58.519 --> 00:09:01.519 the US strikes, the reprisals are not working right now, 188 00:09:01.559 --> 00:09:03.759 and so how much do you have to actually up 189 00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:07.200 the ante and what does that really actually mean? So 190 00:09:07.480 --> 00:09:09.159 you know, Mike, the thoughts on that, I mean, is 191 00:09:09.159 --> 00:09:11.120 there is there a military solution to this right now? 192 00:09:12.519 --> 00:09:15.320 So I think the military can play a part, obviously, 193 00:09:15.759 --> 00:09:18.360 But what I'd say is, yes, I agree, if the 194 00:09:18.399 --> 00:09:20.679 strait is open, that does not make it a win. 195 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:25.399 That just gets us back to norm. If the strait 196 00:09:25.480 --> 00:09:28.639 is closed, that does make it a loss. So we 197 00:09:28.799 --> 00:09:31.639 have to get the straight back open. We can't just say, well, 198 00:09:31.679 --> 00:09:34.080 we don't get that much, you know, energy from this 199 00:09:34.360 --> 00:09:39.000 region's it affects everybody, right, So if there's doesn't matter 200 00:09:39.000 --> 00:09:41.000 where you get your energy, If there's that much less 201 00:09:41.080 --> 00:09:44.399 energy in the world, everybody's paying more. So like like 202 00:09:44.639 --> 00:09:46.320 this is I mean, I'm not an economist, but I 203 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:49.399 get that right. So it has to it has to 204 00:09:49.399 --> 00:09:51.960 come open and out. I heard I think it was 205 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:55.480 Brett talking about his Brett McGirk talking about his recent 206 00:09:56.080 --> 00:09:57.960 trip to at least everybody's trying to come up with 207 00:09:57.960 --> 00:10:00.440 alternatives to the straight, And I think that's a great 208 00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:03.639 idea because eventually this is going to go away. The 209 00:10:03.720 --> 00:10:07.039 leverage is going to go away, I think. But I 210 00:10:07.080 --> 00:10:09.000 know we can't count on that. Man, I don't know 211 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:10.879 how long it'll take, but imagine it's too long to 212 00:10:10.919 --> 00:10:14.519 make an immediate difference. But I think that's the right move. 213 00:10:14.759 --> 00:10:18.200 So then the question is we need to make it. 214 00:10:18.399 --> 00:10:22.080 And I agree with Mark, You're saying, like, now it's 215 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:25.120 all about straight, but we need to make it stay 216 00:10:25.200 --> 00:10:28.559 about nuclear weapons, right, because the US needs to win. 217 00:10:28.600 --> 00:10:30.000 I mean, I know, I say this all the time. 218 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:31.279 We need to win. 219 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:34.679 I don't care who's I'm not a partisan in that regard. 220 00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:36.000 I want the US to win. So how are we 221 00:10:36.039 --> 00:10:37.919 going to do it? We're in it, we started it. 222 00:10:38.039 --> 00:10:41.519 We can't change that. They close the straight. We need 223 00:10:41.519 --> 00:10:43.159 to change that. How do we do it? 224 00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:43.639 So? 225 00:10:43.759 --> 00:10:46.559 I think what the Administration or White House is really 226 00:10:46.600 --> 00:10:51.720 planning is to okay, these negotiations from the US point 227 00:10:51.720 --> 00:10:54.200 of view, seems to be a stalling tactic. And to 228 00:10:54.279 --> 00:10:57.399 what you're talking about, Marko and well, I doubt they apologize. 229 00:10:57.440 --> 00:11:00.440 But I think the problem is you've got this maybe 230 00:11:01.240 --> 00:11:03.799 new Supreme leader calling the shots, and I think he 231 00:11:03.879 --> 00:11:06.720 actually is from what I'm being told. And then you 232 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:09.840 have the IRGC, and then you have the negotiators, which 233 00:11:09.840 --> 00:11:12.240 are like the Erochis and the Golley bops. 234 00:11:12.320 --> 00:11:16.120 Right, these two don't. 235 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:19.240 Respond to the other, Like these guys don't control these guys. 236 00:11:19.240 --> 00:11:21.600 These guys don't control these guys. So they can go 237 00:11:21.639 --> 00:11:23.559 say all these things over here and agree to things, 238 00:11:23.600 --> 00:11:27.200 and then the IRGC says, we're still going to close 239 00:11:27.200 --> 00:11:29.360 the straight, and we're still going to fire at ships 240 00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:31.000 to do so, because that's the only way they can 241 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:34.720 close the straight right is to take direct action. And 242 00:11:34.759 --> 00:11:37.000 then these guys might be saying, well, I wish they 243 00:11:37.039 --> 00:11:39.720 wouldn't have done that, because we really want I don't know, 244 00:11:39.960 --> 00:11:44.799 assets unfrozen, sell our oil. But ultimately that might be 245 00:11:44.840 --> 00:11:47.320 the problem. We're talking to people who aren't making decisions 246 00:11:47.759 --> 00:11:50.840 and have no real direct control over the people who 247 00:11:50.879 --> 00:11:52.039 can blow the whole. 248 00:11:51.799 --> 00:11:54.440 Agreement, and that's what they're doing, right. 249 00:11:54.480 --> 00:11:56.879 I mean, if honestly, if I was looking at this objectively, 250 00:11:56.919 --> 00:11:59.879 I would say, if we're getting to sell our oil 251 00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:05.000 and we're getting to, you know, get our assets on frozen, 252 00:12:05.440 --> 00:12:09.440 just act like the straits open, just do right? 253 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:12.519 Why not? You're making money and it's goes straight to 254 00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:15.720 the regime. So I, you know, I just don't get it. 255 00:12:15.759 --> 00:12:19.600 But ultimately they feel like they have the highest leverage 256 00:12:19.639 --> 00:12:21.480 that they're ever going to have, and they're gonna use it. 257 00:12:21.759 --> 00:12:24.200 They know the regime isn't going to change. They won't 258 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:26.679 even talk about the nuclear In fact, every comment that 259 00:12:26.720 --> 00:12:29.639 comes out of like possession and all that is we're 260 00:12:29.720 --> 00:12:32.159 never gonna give up in Richmond. So the best we 261 00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:36.039 can do is get back in the JCPOA. If that's true, right, 262 00:12:36.399 --> 00:12:39.919 I'm just saying they're not letting in spectors in which 263 00:12:39.960 --> 00:12:42.720 they are required to do as members of the Non 264 00:12:43.080 --> 00:12:46.480 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. They're not even doing that. So 265 00:12:46.519 --> 00:12:47.879 I think that one, they're going to try to get 266 00:12:47.879 --> 00:12:49.799 a nuclear weapon, we got to prevent them to do that. 267 00:12:49.879 --> 00:12:51.559 So that's one of the things the military can do. 268 00:12:52.080 --> 00:12:54.279 And then two, if they don't open the strait, I 269 00:12:54.279 --> 00:12:56.759 think we're going to go up the escalatory ladder. It's 270 00:12:56.799 --> 00:12:59.039 not gonna be good. Though, it's not gonna be good, 271 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:01.440 but I don't know what else you can do because 272 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:05.279 we are in the situation we're in. Yes, economic pressure 273 00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:08.240 diplomatic pressure should be a hand in hand, but if 274 00:13:08.279 --> 00:13:11.759 you don't cause cost directly to the regime, which might 275 00:13:11.799 --> 00:13:15.399 be cutting off these logistical supply lines like the RILL 276 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:19.559 and I think Jonathan could certainly touch about how that 277 00:13:19.600 --> 00:13:21.039 could affect them directly, or I. 278 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:21.879 Guess everybody could. 279 00:13:22.240 --> 00:13:24.799 But it's going to have to go up the esciratory ladder. 280 00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:27.639 And I don't think they should stop fighting necessarily to 281 00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:31.679 do the negotiations, because if they do. From the Iranian perspective, 282 00:13:31.759 --> 00:13:34.480 They're like, fine, we'll talk to you guys. So Kingdom come. 283 00:13:35.720 --> 00:13:38.799 As long as there's no consequences, they don't care. That's 284 00:13:38.840 --> 00:13:41.240 the way they were all So I think that's where 285 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:46.080 it's heading. It's going to be military action amidst negotiation 286 00:13:47.000 --> 00:13:49.120 to try to get to the point where it affects 287 00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:52.320 their position, and they come back to it with a 288 00:13:52.360 --> 00:13:55.360 real MoU because the last one, at least the way 289 00:13:55.559 --> 00:13:58.360 Iranian interpret it, is not in our interest. 290 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:00.840 I just don't know what that military act is, Jonathan, 291 00:14:01.080 --> 00:14:03.919 What is that military action? What could we do to 292 00:14:04.039 --> 00:14:08.200 hurt them that would ever compel them to be more responsible. 293 00:14:09.440 --> 00:14:12.559 Well, something I don't typically advocate for, which is killing 294 00:14:12.600 --> 00:14:15.960 specific individuals at the top of this structure is probably 295 00:14:16.000 --> 00:14:17.879 a helpful way to actually make it happen, even though 296 00:14:17.879 --> 00:14:20.600 I disagree with that strategy myself because of how the 297 00:14:20.639 --> 00:14:22.919 long term impacts of that are. But if you want acute, 298 00:14:23.080 --> 00:14:26.440 short term wins, you need to remove people like Vahiti. 299 00:14:26.840 --> 00:14:28.919 You need to make sure that Mochaba is actually dead, 300 00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:31.200 and go after other decision makers that are holding the 301 00:14:31.240 --> 00:14:34.000 levers of power, including Gollibah, and get rid of them. 302 00:14:34.279 --> 00:14:36.600 Now that's a short term win. Like I said, there's 303 00:14:36.679 --> 00:14:39.639 long term negative impacts globally if we do that, because 304 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:41.840 we lose control of the situation. Because the devil that 305 00:14:41.919 --> 00:14:43.720 you know is sometimes better than the devil that you don't, 306 00:14:44.159 --> 00:14:46.440 and the one like, for example, Vahiti is a really 307 00:14:46.440 --> 00:14:48.320 bad guy, but we understand him. We know him, at 308 00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.399 least those of us who actually do know and understand 309 00:14:50.399 --> 00:14:52.600 this problem. Set get rid of him. And now you've 310 00:14:52.600 --> 00:14:54.200 got like a thirty five year old guy that you 311 00:14:54.240 --> 00:14:56.200 don't even know his name right now. That was like 312 00:14:56.360 --> 00:15:00.000 a low level deputy in the Unit four hundred, which 313 00:15:00.039 --> 00:15:03.639 is there's Special Operations Directorate that nobody knows even on 314 00:15:03.679 --> 00:15:05.799 the CIA side, And now that guy might be in 315 00:15:05.840 --> 00:15:07.720 charge of the IRGC and he's going to probably be 316 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:10.559 a hothead just from his youth alone, but also forged 317 00:15:10.600 --> 00:15:13.159 in what he sees as this crucible of the world 318 00:15:13.159 --> 00:15:16.399 against Iran. So that's that long term problem. But if 319 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:18.360 you want a short term win, get the straits open 320 00:15:18.679 --> 00:15:21.279 and have things flowing smoothly for the next few months. Sure, 321 00:15:21.399 --> 00:15:23.159 kill all the top level leadership, which is what we 322 00:15:23.200 --> 00:15:26.159 did from February twenty eighth till now. And there's always 323 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:29.679 that tension between the short term military victories, you know, 324 00:15:29.919 --> 00:15:32.120 tactical and operational strikes which were very good at WE 325 00:15:32.360 --> 00:15:36.039 and Israel too, versus the long term what happens next 326 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.120 of that, because you cannot use a military instrument to 327 00:15:39.159 --> 00:15:41.879 force political change alone. It has to have diplomatic and 328 00:15:41.879 --> 00:15:45.679 economic buttresses, if not those things being the main effort 329 00:15:45.720 --> 00:15:48.519 with military as a support. So it's a real challenge 330 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:50.519 that we've kind of dug ourselves into here where we've 331 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:53.320 basically forced ourselves into a military problem that didn't have 332 00:15:53.360 --> 00:15:55.519 to be in the first place because of how we're 333 00:15:55.559 --> 00:15:57.840 we you know, the US government's focusing so much on 334 00:15:57.840 --> 00:16:00.879 the Straits of Hormuz now, which is chiefly a security concern, 335 00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:04.919 the military security concern that has economic remnants around it, 336 00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:07.159 and it should be inverted where the economy is the 337 00:16:07.159 --> 00:16:09.279 main point. I can't remember which politician it was in 338 00:16:09.320 --> 00:16:11.279 the early nineties, I said, it's the economy, stupid. Maybe 339 00:16:11.279 --> 00:16:13.559 it was Bush Senior, but it's it's true. I mean, 340 00:16:13.600 --> 00:16:14.279 the economy is the. 341 00:16:14.240 --> 00:16:15.720 Thing driving every Clinton right. 342 00:16:16.480 --> 00:16:18.519 I can't remember, but I remember that was during that election. 343 00:16:18.840 --> 00:16:23.120 Clinton. Yeah, there was one of their borrows. Yeah, I 344 00:16:23.679 --> 00:16:26.440 think they should. They're going to go after personalities. 345 00:16:26.440 --> 00:16:28.360 To your point, Jonathan, we you all heard that there 346 00:16:28.440 --> 00:16:32.039 was a credible threat to President Trump, so just from 347 00:16:32.039 --> 00:16:37.320 the emotional perspective, and then you know, allegedly, uh the 348 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:39.519 Spring later came out with a statement saying we're going 349 00:16:39.559 --> 00:16:42.519 to go after the US and Israel from every direction, 350 00:16:42.679 --> 00:16:45.840 calling on a like an international movement to target them. 351 00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:48.399 So I think that in Vahidi probably be I on 352 00:16:48.399 --> 00:16:52.279 the list as most type of as well. But I 353 00:16:52.279 --> 00:16:54.360 think that's going to be part of it. But the 354 00:16:54.440 --> 00:16:57.919 other part, just from I mean we've heard this for months, 355 00:16:58.039 --> 00:17:01.480 is going after infrastructure targets. They're gonna make it miserable 356 00:17:01.480 --> 00:17:04.559 to live there. I would I would advocate for going 357 00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:08.480 after you know, ones that are military and ones that 358 00:17:08.519 --> 00:17:12.079 allow the regime to make money, so the railroad if 359 00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:15.400 that's if that's one of the main economic lifelines, I 360 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:19.000 wouldn't advocate going after which primarily civilian. But I'm not 361 00:17:19.079 --> 00:17:23.319 in the I'm an administration. So there's like three major 362 00:17:23.359 --> 00:17:29.039 I think, uh, energy producing facilities and Iran. I think 363 00:17:29.079 --> 00:17:31.079 they're probably on the list. It's just going to gradually 364 00:17:31.119 --> 00:17:36.599 go up, and maybe that's that's what the Esculptory Ladder 365 00:17:36.640 --> 00:17:38.680 is right, it's a gradual going up so that the 366 00:17:39.079 --> 00:17:43.200 adversary in this case Arenian regime knows if they don't comply, 367 00:17:43.519 --> 00:17:46.200 then they go up another Wrong. You have to put 368 00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:48.680 the pressure on and it's not going to come from 369 00:17:48.960 --> 00:17:51.839 you know, harsh statements or threats on social media. It's 370 00:17:51.839 --> 00:17:54.759 just they're ignoring all that. Now it has to be 371 00:17:55.079 --> 00:17:57.039 you know, walks off and carry a big stick. You 372 00:17:57.160 --> 00:17:58.799 got the stick, You're going to have to use it, 373 00:17:58.960 --> 00:18:02.279 but you have to use it effect in ligne. With diplomacy, 374 00:18:02.880 --> 00:18:08.599 economic I think pressure and having the right information. And 375 00:18:08.599 --> 00:18:10.400 what I mean by information just to use a die 376 00:18:10.480 --> 00:18:13.480 model is you got to start bringing other countries into this, 377 00:18:14.440 --> 00:18:15.240 and you're not going to. 378 00:18:15.240 --> 00:18:17.480 Do it by insults. Right. 379 00:18:17.559 --> 00:18:20.799 But the Strait is not the war. The Strait affects 380 00:18:21.079 --> 00:18:24.559 every country in the world. So I don't think we're 381 00:18:24.599 --> 00:18:26.200 getting a lot of people sign up to fight around, 382 00:18:26.279 --> 00:18:29.519 but we could get more countries signed up to economically 383 00:18:29.559 --> 00:18:32.839 isolate them because this is I mean, there's countries, as 384 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:35.759 you all know in the Far East that are we're 385 00:18:35.839 --> 00:18:38.799 about to run out of fuel, right, So this isn't 386 00:18:38.839 --> 00:18:41.079 about like do you agree with the United States, do 387 00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:44.119 you like the United States. It is just as much 388 00:18:44.240 --> 00:18:47.519 their national security issue as it is honors right now. 389 00:18:47.799 --> 00:18:50.079 So hopefully we can on the information side of the 390 00:18:50.119 --> 00:18:54.119 die model get more countries to start helping us isolate 391 00:18:54.160 --> 00:18:57.039 their reshime, which means not buying all things. 392 00:18:58.079 --> 00:19:00.359 I'm not on the on the Israeli intel. I mean, 393 00:19:00.440 --> 00:19:02.400 I must admit I was, you know. I look, I've 394 00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:04.720 worked with these rallies. I like them. He has a 395 00:19:04.720 --> 00:19:08.119 heart attack when I say that. But I was a 396 00:19:08.160 --> 00:19:10.279 little skeptical when that came out, and I think of 397 00:19:10.359 --> 00:19:12.799 the repress reports. There's been a number of US officials 398 00:19:12.799 --> 00:19:15.240 who said it was not very it was not necessarily credible, 399 00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:17.240 and it was not very specific. It was just kind 400 00:19:17.279 --> 00:19:20.000 of the general threat of the Iranians talking about doing 401 00:19:20.039 --> 00:19:22.359