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Speaker 1: Nothing says Christmas like family gathered around the hearth Christmas Eve.

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I don't know what your tradition is at home, open

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one gift, maybe to some snacks, family over, some friends,

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and then of course reading from Luke Orth of Jesus Christ.

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And then of course Congress on Christmas Eve voting in

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a continuing resolution to further bankrupt the country and to

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protect themselves from any form of investigation. Well, yeah, and

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the races, the races. We'll talk about this with our

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friend and brother, Zach Abraham, Chief Investments for Bowart Capital

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Management and through the good graces of God Almighty.

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Speaker 2: But Todd Herman show is one disapproved by big pharma

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technocrats and tyranne s everywhere from the high mountains of

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Free America. Here's the Emerald City exile Todd Herman.

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Speaker 1: Today is a day the Lord has made. These are

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the times to which God has decided with She'll lives, Zach.

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It's Christmas time. It means it's continuing resolution time. You're

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a guy who deals with people's paychecks at all and

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et cetera. As a fiduciariat Bulwark seventy thousand dollars per

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year rays for congressional members as a cost of living

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your thoughts.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's what I'm here for. I love it.

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I would be willing to increase my own personal tax

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rate to finance it. But I'm a look, I'm a

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huge fan of DC in the Hill. Everybody knows that, right, No,

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I'm just chuckling reading this bill out, you know, classic

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classic Christmas Eve bill, right, stuff through all the stuff

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you don't want, yep, the FED or excuse me, the media,

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which is part of the DNC. Now, of course they're

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not going to report on it. As a matter of fact,

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I'm gonna jump out on a lift here and say,

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I'm gonna bet you didn't get the information about this

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bill from ABC?

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Speaker 1: How did you know that there are a team of

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people in social media who are taking this fifteen hundred

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page omnibus bill apart and bit by bit by bit

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it dribbles out, and it dribbles out. We'll talk about

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section six oh five here in a second. But this

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is the This bill represents a further permanent divorce of

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DC from the country. The seventy grand a year. I mean,

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you deal in the world of income. If I'm not mistaken,

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that's probably fifteen percent more than the average and American

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earns in a year. And Congress wants it in the

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form of a pay race. Am I right, it's about

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the number.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so well so seventy seven thousand, Yeah, because they're

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going to increase it by seventy seven thousand. Yeah, that's

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right around there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're going to get a pay increase that is

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commensurate or slightly larger than the average person's wage. And

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here's the thing. If it was part of a larger

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plan to overhaul the government, for instance, one of the

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things that I have been open to if, if, if

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it is combined with massive campaign reform, would be substantially

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higher salaries for elected officials. And I hate saying that,

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but if you want less corruption, if a bottom line,

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and again I hate saying this, okay, but if we

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want the best and brightest in DC, you got to

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pay more than one hundred and eighty gradiator, you know,

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or or you're just getting You have to have something.

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You got to have something change because you have a

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system now where the best and brightest are not incentivized.

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You you have a system that really the only people,

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the only people that would be incentivized to engage in

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this system are people that are wantonly and actively looking

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to be corrupt, or people that are idiots and don't

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realize what they're getting into.

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Speaker 1: Right, right, right, I get that, And I've heard this

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are before, like, hey, make it half a million bucks.

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I mean, we can't make it. We can't make it

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ten million a year. Make it half a million bucks,

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make it seven fifty. But then lockdown on all the corruptions.

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So but then how do you do that? And here's

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the deal. You can't take money out of Congress until

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you take money out of the process. You can't until

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you can strip their ability to have earmarks and bundle

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things in for friends and hide things until bills are

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single pages, yep, until you have a here's the Energy

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Department bill, nothing else goes in it, Here's the Defense

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Department bill, nothing else goes in it. And you give

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them an inability to have anything to do with the

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money supply at all. Until that happens, you can't weed

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out corruption.

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Speaker 3: Right Yeah, No, And that's then that's what ticks you

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off about this bill, right is because a you could

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make when I don't think you make the argument. I

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think it's fact that a bill like this actually puts

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you further away from making any serious change, right because

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we like you, uh until I want them making one

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hundred and eighty grand a year or as little as

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possible to provide part of the incentive to get a

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good bill passed. Right. And so now you're kicking them

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an extra seventy You're I don't know how much further

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away that puts us from a resolution, but it's seventy

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thousand dollars per congressional member further away, right.

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Speaker 1: And maybe one of the things we look at would

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be an incentive package. And I mean this, what if

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the incentive package is to get the country back into

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fiscal shape. Maybe we're getting some people in there who's

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seed upset in this. But the problem with this is

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with the best and brightest in DC. No, buddy, you're

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a million bucks from your Mirrorman's squat to me, I'm

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going to be a billionaire back here. I know what

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I'm doing. I'm going to go be a lobbyist. I'm

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going to be a billionaire. I've got the path all

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laid out. You want to pay me a millionaire chump change,

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I can go get that. Being a commentator on MSNBC.

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I just say some ridiculous things back here, and they

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pat this career path. So but let's let's let's fall

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down the road a little bit. In this continuing resolution.

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I want to tell you about section six oh five

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here in a second. Zach as a guy who's dealt

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from time to time with government agencies coming and sniffing around.

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I know I don't like it, and I've had those,

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you know, situations with my companies, et cetera. So I

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want to tell you something about seven six oh five

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we need to talk about. The stock market was at

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the lowest losing streak since nineteen seventy eight. I think

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that was on Tuesday or so. Losts to get to

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with Zach Abraham, who's it's a wise council day. Let

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me give you some wise counsel. I tripped across a

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product that I'm holding. It's called Wisdom, and the fact

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I haven't taken this today and I love the way

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it taste. It's an oil based herbals. Gosh, that's good supplement.

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Every time I take this, it's good cinnamon, et cetera.

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And doctor Patrick jen Tempo was caused to invent this

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he was in the Holy Land. He's a food freedom guy.

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He does it podcast about the Lord Jesus and the

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Word of God and food. And he came across all

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the smells, all of the herbs, and he was touring

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the Holy Land, and then looked in the Bible and

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realized that this stuff is mentioned so often in the Bible,

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almost in a sacred sense, that he studied this and

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ended up putting together this product. And I got a

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note from a nurse practitioner the other day. I'm probably

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a naturopathic naturopathic doctor who was saying I have not

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done a good enough job explaining the process of putting

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this together. The cold brewing locks in the nutrients the

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value to help you have joint health and mental clarity, focus,

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healthy response to inflammation that's locked into the cold brew

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The light infusion in the sound infusion makes the properties

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more stable. And he does this all in small batches,

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so quality control. I take this a couple of times

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a day. My daughter as it to her coffee, so

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she gets the taste what she loves, gets the lift

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of the coffee, but not the jagged edge. So try wisdom.

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Go to try wisdom now dot com. Slash Todd, you

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are going to get thirty three percent off, You're gonna

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get free shipping at triwisdomnow dot com and you get

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one hundred and eighty day money back guarantee. That's try

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wisdomnow dot com slash Todd, Zak Abraham's with us so

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Zach Section six oh five hidden away found by activists

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on substack and Twitter. There's three things. It makes congress

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permanent owners of a congressional data. So anything that touches

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a congressional staffer a congressional device belongs to them. And

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they go to the they go to the judicial branch

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and say you will quash or modify any subpoena for

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any congressional data. And it's retroactive, so any ongoing investigation warrants,

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subpoenas are quashed. What this means is congress and congressional

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members and staff could not be investigated by the DJ

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the sec. Uh, the I R S no go.

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Speaker 3: It's lawfair insurance man.

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Speaker 1: That's the perfect way to put it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean it's it's I was trying to

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explain this to my to my uh my personal trainer

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this morning. I said, look, I go, have you ever

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heard the analogy if you want to if you're if

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you're if you're walking down the block, right, and and

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and you have somebody told you, look, there's a criminal

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that lives in our neighborhood. Yep, we just don't know

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who it is, right, So how do we find them?

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Look for the guy with the greatest security system? Okay, hey,

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why well, because of course he thinks people are going

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to break into his house, because that's what he does

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for a living. Right. So the people that are trying

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to preemptively exonerate themselves from prosecution, shocker, they're the same

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people that illegally and and in a de defamatory way

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went after President Frump. Like it's it's so it's like

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every time I hear these people in this stuff, I'm

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reminded of the Shakespeare line the lady doth protests too much, methinks, right, yep,

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because you're like, you've said you're not guilty too many times, man, Right,

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Nobody that's saying that as much as you are, is right.

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And so it's kind of like a confession. Did you

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guys go after Trump unfairly? Well we know they did,

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but you know, I look at this bill it's a confession.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's a confession of guilt and that, but it's

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also there's so much in this. So here's some things

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that we're finding out. We found out this week that

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bureaucratic agencies, using our taxpayers money, were paid paid Reuters.

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They paid them what was it, three hundred million bucks.

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Biden administration paid Ruters three hundred million dollars. Eleven different

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government agencies targeted Elon Musk's business and all eleven agencies

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paid millions to Ruters. Routers. Then when the Pulitzer Prize

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for their work on on Elon Musk and misconduct at

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his business. So you're talking about Transportation, Justice, Labor Interior,

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National Labor Relations Board, Equal Employment Opportunity EPA, Securities in Exchange,

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Federal Communications, Federal Trade Commission all gave money to Reuters

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that amounted to three hundred million dollars. And interestingly, they

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turn around and to write this piece about Elon Musk,

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the great Enemy of the people. So that right there

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is government agencies paying a media company to attack a

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single American individual. To me, that almost rises above the

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censorship that could not be investigated. We couldn't find more

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information if there's an investigation ongoing. Remember when Lizzie Warren

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was talking about the guy who shot the United Healthcare CEO,

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she said something, she said, you can only push people

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so far.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Does she hear herself? I'm like Jade Vance going to

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Martha Rais, do you hear yourself? Do you know that

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we know that, we know that you know that you're

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making yourself immune from this stuff? I mean, you yourself

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have said in many, many sectors of this economy. I

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think I saw you on Twitter talking about health insurance

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that one of the things you could do to lower

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health insurance is get away from the web of state

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after state. Each state has different rules on what is

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health insurance what isn't right. So that's one aspect of this.

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But tell me state governments don't follow suit if they

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see Congress get this pasted.

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Speaker 3: Oh of course, well, of course. And I think that

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this is just this is this another uh, this is

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just another version of I mean, I think it's I

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think it's insane. Now, before I say this, I should

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probably go back and look at the history of salaries

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for congressional members and how much they've been raised over time,

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and what that process looks like, but my immediate response

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is whoa, whoa Whoahoa. Hold on a second. You're going

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to give these people a twenty five to thirty percent

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raise and we're not even have a discussion about it, right, Like,

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I don't know what the process is, but I'm going

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to go out on a limb here and assume that

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this is sort of unprecedented. But it's not unprecedented in

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this environment because like so many other things we've seen, right,

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they don't even hide it anymore. It's just it's it's

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just incompetence. But to even call it in competence is

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not fair because it's very purposeful.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 3: This isn't these aren't these aren't errors of omission, These

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aren't mistakes these people are making. This is strategic and uh,

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it just blows me away that you've got our elected

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officials awarding themselves a twenty five to thirty percent pay

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raise while approval for Congress is at its lowest market

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in history, right, and we're not even going to have

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a discussion with the American taxpayer on whether we approve

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of that or not. Nope, No, that's just incredible time.

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Speaker 1: I would love to say, and I've sat with people

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who were new to Congress. I got to know Kathin

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mcmarsh Rogers way back in the day, lost touch. I'm

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not a person who keeps in touch with people like that.

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And she was a sweet lady going back to Congress

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for the right reasons, and she was astonished and shocked

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at the behaviors of Congress. And I sat there and

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I talked to her a Zach and I saw the

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look on her face where she was shocked. And she

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was talking about Nancy Pelosi crossing herself before a vote

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on abortion, and Kathy said, it's a most obscene thing. Touch.

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She's sit in the corner crossing herself. She's getting ready

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to vote for more abortion. Fast forward six years later,

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Kathy's heading up one of the big committees and she's

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defending continuing resolutions. She's continuing defending things like this. On

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Christmas Eve, she was still that dear sweet lady. But

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manpower seduces, doesn't it. It absolutely seduces.

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Speaker 3: It does unless you're It's funny because I had not

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extended and it didn't get like two personal, like, it

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didn't get too personal. But I was fortunate enough to

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play around the golf with Steve as a former Seahawk

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legend a number of congress and he said the exact

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same things that you're saying. And one of the reasons

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he left, he just said, you know something along the

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lines of I just didn't think I could maintain my

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integrity and my soul by staying in that.

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Speaker 1: It's at all levels. I had a friend of mine

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who ran for city council for the first time, first

275
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time he's in politics. He's an Air Force veteran, Christian man,

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honest man, level headed man, very conservative and really levelheaded,

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wants to try to find agreement. He was just sharing

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with us the other day how how more bunds he feels,

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because how special interests actually do own processes that he

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had he'd made a suggestion about a piece of legislation

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and said something about a company. Next thing, you know,

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he's got a note from lawyers, Oh, you know what,

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you've ran a foul of city council rules. We're going

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to sue you individually. You don't get to say that

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about companies. And they came to one of the city

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council meetings and smirked at him. Three lawyers from one

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of the most powerful firms in his area, sitting there

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in the front row smirking at him like, gon it

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come at us, We own you.

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Speaker 3: That's like the old mob trick. Right, you come home

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and there's a bullet sitting on your on your countertop.

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Speaker 1: Right, you know it's just who that is. Yeah, we

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swung by to say hi. So's a couple of the

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things I want to talk to you about that. Don't

295
00:16:21,279 --> 00:16:24,200
want to get to your Twitter chain because man, this uh,

296
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this bitcoin thing, this this this guy Michael Saylor continues

297
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to go out and somehow get away with what to

298
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,480
me seems to be the biggest scam in the world.

299
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We need to talk about open a AI, et cetera.

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That one more thing from the Biden Harris people talk

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economics with Zach Abraham. Hey, I gotta tell you this, brother,

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I got three I have three friends, our age Christian men,

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and we're cooking up a trip to Port of our

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Art to go down and get the stem cells.

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Speaker 3: Wait when are you doing that?

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Speaker 1: See, that's what I wanted to talk about. We're gonna

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think we're thinking about March. For me, it's by lower back.

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I'm getting like numbing and numbing my fingers and I

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know What happened is I wrestled with my friend who's

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far bigger, stronger, more athletic, smarter, better looking, all those things.

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I took the first three takedowns. He took the fourth

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and he wrecked me. And since then I got this

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like numbness. So that's me. It's lower back, I think,

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And my friends it's their knees. One knee is a

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cartilage chear. The other is jumper's knee that's now constant.

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And I was thinking for you, I know, it's really

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the aesthetics that you wanted to go down and they

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00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:27,839
can instead of.

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Speaker 3: You.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to get into your medical secrets, but

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00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,480
I can't even believe we're at an age where we're

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00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:39,000
talking about doing a wellcation as dudes to go down

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to get these stem cells, because man, I've had it

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done twice. I can't wait to get it done with

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my lower back. The stem cells come from a biblical

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00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,720
cords Placenta's only never a thing to do with abortion.

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They are so remarkable. If you're of our age and

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00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:51,680
you have any of this pain, please don't buy intopharma,

329
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,440
and you got to get Sergey. Go to renew dut

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00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,119
Healthcare it's our e in you e dot healthcare telling

331
00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,039
me you're part of the top Hermannshew family. They'll take

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00:17:58,039 --> 00:17:59,279
care of you. But what what it take to get

333
00:17:59,319 --> 00:18:01,160
you down there? You've to me privately, dude, I gotta

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00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:01,640
get down there.

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00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would love to. I got to look, March

336
00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,640
is gonna be tough for me because that's the twentieth

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00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,960
anniversary with the missus. Okay, March eleventh.

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Speaker 1: Well, but you can tell her maybe you could celebrate

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00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:11,759
in April.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, she'd be a fan of that one. I'm taking

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a wellness Goo trip go with the fellas. Yeah, i'd

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00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,920
like to. Well, I would like to make it twenty

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00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:24,720
one years Todd.

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00:18:25,039 --> 00:18:29,839
Speaker 1: So I'll just let me throw this out here. The

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00:18:30,279 --> 00:18:32,519
one of the the managing partner lives on a world

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00:18:32,519 --> 00:18:36,039
class golf course. He lives on the eighth eighth hole.

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Speaker 3: She'd be good with April.

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Speaker 1: Make you think of it, Yeah, I mean it's like

349
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almost doing it early. Well, we'll work that out. But

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I can't even believe I'm at this age where that

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00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:52,519
this actually appeals to me, and it's it's far more

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about how I feel when I get back.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: So one of the things, how long.

355
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Speaker 3: How many days would you be down there just out

356
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of curiosity?

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Speaker 1: But four or five?

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Speaker 3: You know what I might be able to do that,

359
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:02,720
I might be able to swing it. Let let's let's

360
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:03,680
discuss it, all right, So.

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Speaker 1: And we'll do that. If we can get it worked

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00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:06,960
out advance, we'll make it a wellcation and you and

363
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,799
I will get we'll even get paid for going them.

364
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,680
So there's that. Can we talk about the stock market

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00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:16,559
real quick? The Dow logged its longest losing streak since

366
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nineteen seventy eight. Yeah, so the Dow different from the NASTAC.

367
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:26,119
I always hear the business reporters say the tech heavy NASTAC,

368
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,039
right right, right, So that's so, so tell us what's

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going on.

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00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,279
Speaker 3: So what's really interesting is right now we're looking at markets.

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00:19:34,319 --> 00:19:38,359
The Fed announced their cut today. Markets are getting hammered.

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00:19:38,599 --> 00:19:42,359
So SMP is down one point nine percent, nasdac's down

373
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:46,319
about two point five percent. The dollar is skyrocketing. U

374
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,920
this is this you're looking at a move in the dollar.

375
00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:54,440
That d x Y is up a buck twenty eight

376
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,319
on the day, it's at one eight twenty four. It

377
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,920
broke a massive resistance level at one oh seven. H

378
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,640
So I'm getting to the dow. What we've been talking about,

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00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,319
and what we were actually talking about yesterday on the

380
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:14,319
Daily Dots is we said, guys, you need to be

381
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,279
careful here, not because we think a big crash or

382
00:20:17,319 --> 00:20:19,880
a sell off is coming, but you have this market

383
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,519
behaving in a way that is literally impossible for it

384
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:27,000
to continue to do okay, Meaning you're watching this speculative

385
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:31,079
fervor stuff just going through the roof and what you know,

386
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,799
and it's impossible to know the timing on this kind

387
00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:38,519
of stuff. But what basically what we think was happening

388
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,359
and what we've seen happening is it's sort of like

389
00:20:41,519 --> 00:20:45,160
twenty twenty one on steroids again, where you see money

390
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,039
sucking out of all sectors of the market and dumping

391
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:53,880
into all of these crazy speculative, frothy stocks, and people

392
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,759
are sleeping on it. Every single metric we have leverage,

393
00:20:58,039 --> 00:21:02,160
the average leverage by retail, consumer, US, everything is far

394
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,480
worse than it was at the peak in twenty twenty one.

395
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,000
We are literally in rarefied error. So what we've been

396
00:21:08,079 --> 00:21:11,319
saying is it's not that we think the economy is

397
00:21:11,319 --> 00:21:15,759
gonna tip, but you're gonna see noise in this stock

398
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:19,480
market in the next thirty to forty five days, because

399
00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:22,720
markets can't continue to do this. They just can't write.

400
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,400
You start going up too quick on this stuff, and

401
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,359
then you're gonna get It's just the way things work,

402
00:21:29,599 --> 00:21:32,000
And so that could be happening as we speak. The

403
00:21:32,079 --> 00:21:35,559
dollar is moonshotting. You're up one point one percent on

404
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,759
the day. Put that into context, I would say that's

405
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,799
probably about the equivalent of a three to four percent

406
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,079
move in the overall market in a single day. So

407
00:21:45,599 --> 00:21:47,519
not unprecedented, but big.

408
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 2: Right.

409
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 3: If I see the SMB down three or four percent

410
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:54,000
in a day, I'm gonna ask what happened? Right, I'm

411
00:21:54,039 --> 00:21:56,279
seeing the dollar up that much in a single day,

412
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,400
and so I get back to it that stat right,

413
00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:04,480
There was another one we were discussing yesterday on the

414
00:22:04,559 --> 00:22:08,200
Daily Dots, and I was saying, one of the things

415
00:22:08,279 --> 00:22:12,240
that concerns me is the Dow just had it's ninth

416
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,400
straight losing session, and that's the first time since nineteen

417
00:22:15,519 --> 00:22:19,400
seventy eight. Guess what has never happened in a healthy,

418
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,720
booming stock market that, Right, while the S and P

419
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,160
and Nasdaq are making all time highs and fart coin

420
00:22:27,319 --> 00:22:30,000
is making two hundred and fifty percent returns in a week.

421
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:36,000
The Dow's returning nine days straight of losses. Something's amiss, right, right,

422
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:37,559
That's all.

423
00:22:37,799 --> 00:22:39,319
Speaker 1: That's what I was concerned about. And to me, it

424
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,680
goes back to the real versus the virtual. See me

425
00:22:42,799 --> 00:22:44,839
things back, because there's a bunch of virtual. It goes

426
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,880
back to Dow has a lot more real things in it,

427
00:22:48,039 --> 00:22:52,640
things that we actually, you know, need to exist. The

428
00:22:52,759 --> 00:22:55,599
NASTAC has a lot more things in it that are convenience,

429
00:22:56,319 --> 00:22:57,839
nice to have it. Oh, by the way they spy

430
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:58,240
on us.

431
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,519
Speaker 3: It could all so be. It could also be symptoms

432
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,640
of a market that is that overcooked. Meaning we've seen

433
00:23:07,799 --> 00:23:10,759
before where the nonsense was rallying and the rest of

434
00:23:10,839 --> 00:23:14,799
the market wasn't or wasn't right. But at a certain

435
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,880
point you run out of money, right, and so in

436
00:23:18,039 --> 00:23:20,440
order to put more money into certain things, you got

437
00:23:20,559 --> 00:23:23,720
to sell other things. Okay, Well, if you're chasing these

438
00:23:23,799 --> 00:23:27,480
crazy tech stocks and you're sitting there looking at IBM,

439
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,240
I don't think they're in the Dow, but you're sitting

440
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,599
there looking at your Dow component stocks or your Dow

441
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,160
Jones ETF. What are you gonna do well, you're gonna

442
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,240
sell it, right, And so I think it could be

443
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:43,160
a symptom of that's how out over the skis everybody

444
00:23:43,279 --> 00:23:45,799
is loaded up on this stuff that the only way

445
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:50,240
they can keep buying more is by selling other stuff. Right. So,

446
00:23:51,279 --> 00:23:54,279
and all of the traditional all of the information we have,

447
00:23:54,519 --> 00:23:58,119
all of the averages, all of the positioning data, all supports.

448
00:23:57,759 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 1: That out look okay, So there's a bunch of tech

449
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,400
stuff tied into this because I want to transfer into

450
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,240
a discussion ending up at Apple because you posted a

451
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,279
chart that finally, I mean I sort of understood it,

452
00:24:09,599 --> 00:24:12,720
but I finally get it. This this effect And we've

453
00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:15,359
talked about this enough, but I want people to understand

454
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:16,440
the effect of your money.

455
00:24:16,599 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 2: Is it?

456
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: Did you say forty percent of people's money given ETFs

457
00:24:20,039 --> 00:24:23,119
are going into these big companies, five companies every month automatically,

458
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,440
no matter what their valuation is, it's like forty percent, right.

459
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd have to check the exact numbers, but that

460
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:29,759
sounds about.

461
00:24:29,519 --> 00:24:32,279
Speaker 1: Correct, okay. So yeah, and I'm just doing this for memory.

462
00:24:32,319 --> 00:24:33,680
So we'll get to this with Zach and a second

463
00:24:33,759 --> 00:24:37,440
a statement from Sam Altman who says he runs open

464
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,160
API but then there's this weird corporate structure. He says,

465
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:41,839
it's not because of the money. You got to hear

466
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,160
this through December thirty. First, do you have an opportunity

467
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:49,079
to save a ton of money on bone Frog Sellers.

468
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,279
This is the wine created by bone Frog by friend

469
00:24:52,319 --> 00:24:56,240
Tim Kirkshak, founder and CEO of bone Frog Coffee, created

470
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471
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seller's wine, so you get a bone Frogsellers dot com

472
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slash Todd. There is a code it's bf Wine thirty

473
00:25:06,799 --> 00:25:10,599
exclamation point, so just think bone Frog Wine thirty percent

474
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,799
BF Wine thirty excremation point. That's in the twenty eighteen,

475
00:25:14,839 --> 00:25:19,240
twenty nineteen cabs and Merlow's. But also this there are

476
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:23,640
great deals on all the merchandise, coffee, mugs, caps, bone

477
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,799
Frog Legacy Group challenge coin that's designed by the News

478
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,519
Navy Seal. That's Tim designed this coin and it has

479
00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:31,839
a great story behind that t shirts. He makes some

480
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:33,839
of the best merchants. Every time I think I'm wearing

481
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,400
his merch I'm not a bellue bores merch all the time.

482
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,640
That's also at Bonefrog Cooffee dot com dot Todd or

483
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:44,279
Bonefrogsellers dot Com slash Todd sam Altman in Congress being

484
00:25:44,319 --> 00:25:46,119
asked about why he does what he does.

485
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 3: Make all the money?

486
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: Do you I make No?

487
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,799
Speaker 3: I paid enough for health insurance. I have no equity

488
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:53,519
and Open the Eye really yeah, that's interesting. You need

489
00:25:53,599 --> 00:25:56,559
a lawyer. I need a what you need a lawyer

490
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,880
or an agent. I'm doing this because I love.

491
00:25:58,759 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: It, so Zach sam Maltman says it's not for the money,

492
00:26:02,079 --> 00:26:04,680
and yet as I was doing show research, it appears

493
00:26:04,799 --> 00:26:09,200
that he sometime recently became worth ten point five billion

494
00:26:09,279 --> 00:26:13,559
dollars more given open API. So it might not be

495
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:16,759
for the money, but it certainly looks like money is

496
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,000
part of that. He says. Open Eye is working to

497
00:26:20,039 --> 00:26:24,200
restructure for a for profit benefit corporation. This nonprofit would

498
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,440
retain a minority stake. CEO Sam Outman would receive equity

499
00:26:27,519 --> 00:26:30,279
with open a API recordedly and talks to raised fresh

500
00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:33,680
fronts at a valuation of one hundred and fifty billion dollars,

501
00:26:34,079 --> 00:26:36,319
making him ten point five billion. But it's not the money.

502
00:26:38,039 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, if he wasn't happy before, I'm sure

503
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:47,640
he is now right, Like, I mean, maybe maybe maybe

504
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,079
it is for the love, but it may not have

505
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,119
always been. But like I said, I'm sure, I'm sure

506
00:26:53,160 --> 00:27:00,319
it is now. I look, I get a I yeah,

507
00:27:01,079 --> 00:27:03,160
I get it's not as bad, but I get kind

508
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,759
of a somewhat like a bit of an SBF vibe

509
00:27:05,759 --> 00:27:06,440
from this guy.

510
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:08,799
Speaker 2: I do.

511
00:27:09,319 --> 00:27:12,799
Speaker 3: And I part of that is I thought Elon Musk

512
00:27:12,799 --> 00:27:17,240
has had some interesting comments about him about Altman. Yeah,

513
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,440
Musk knows him really well. And the interesting thing about

514
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,640
coming from Musk is must is Musk. Musk's critiques of

515
00:27:25,799 --> 00:27:32,160
him are mostly centered around his intent and his for

516
00:27:32,319 --> 00:27:37,480
lack of a better term, morality, right, And when it

517
00:27:37,799 --> 00:27:42,119
when it comes to intent and morality surrounding these types

518
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,519
of issues, I think Musk has a lot of credibility,

519
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,839
right because he's shown that he will make altruistic moves

520
00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:56,480
that that have negative impacts on his on his personal wealth, right, right.

521
00:27:58,279 --> 00:28:00,960
And so when he's making critic peaks like that of

522
00:28:01,039 --> 00:28:06,160
a guy that he helped start Open AI with, I

523
00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:10,000
think that you should pay attention. And Musk says he

524
00:28:10,079 --> 00:28:14,240
doesn't trust him. And the reason Musk doesn't trust him

525
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,799
is the reason it was called Open AI. To Musk's insistence,

526
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,000
was he wanted it open sourced because he saw AI

527
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,680
as too big of a potential threat, and one way

528
00:28:24,759 --> 00:28:28,359
to unthreaten it, right is to make it open source,

529
00:28:28,559 --> 00:28:31,880
so nobody really owns it. Kind of like bitcoin, right, right?

530
00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:36,559
Not kind of? I mean Bitcoin is open sourced. But

531
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,119
you know what it looks like is Altman started seeing

532
00:28:40,279 --> 00:28:43,039
how much money could be made, and Altman started changing that.

533
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:43,839
Speaker 1: Right.

534
00:28:44,039 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: So he's sitting here talking about all this altruism, and

535
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,880
yet every move he's made to the corporate structure of

536
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,119
open AI is so he can get paid, right, right,

537
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,519
And you know how bad? Is it bad that he

538
00:28:57,559 --> 00:28:59,319
wants to get paid? No, but don't sit there and

539
00:28:59,359 --> 00:29:01,599
tell me you're doing it for altruistic reasons. The other

540
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,640
thing is, I think Musk has a point. I think

541
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,400
open I think that AI being dominated by a few

542
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,920
tech names could be a very, very dangerous proposition. And

543
00:29:12,079 --> 00:29:14,640
I think that Musk. I also agree with Musk's assessment

544
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,119
hundred percent, which is, if you want a d risk,

545
00:29:17,839 --> 00:29:20,720
if you want to optimize the effectiveness of AI and

546
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,440
D risk it, simultaneously, open source.

547
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 1: It, yep, yep. And Rason with Rogan who said that

548
00:29:27,839 --> 00:29:29,839
the government has told Andrason there's only going to be

549
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,200
three players. Don't bother getting invested in it, because we've

550
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,000
already figured out who this they're going to be. I

551
00:29:35,119 --> 00:29:37,440
was listening to I didn't pull the video, but I

552
00:29:37,599 --> 00:29:40,799
was listening to a statement from the woman who runs

553
00:29:40,799 --> 00:29:44,359
the National Archives talking about how cool AI is going

554
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,640
to be for searches because there's a lot of stuff

555
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,839
that she doesn't want people to see because our founders

556
00:29:49,839 --> 00:29:54,480
were very bad people. I'm paraphrasing, but she said, like,

557
00:29:54,759 --> 00:29:57,559
you know, our nation has a troubled history. There were

558
00:29:57,599 --> 00:29:59,759
some very bad people that ran it, and open AI.

559
00:30:00,119 --> 00:30:01,759
We'll make sure that are not open air, but a

560
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:03,559
I will make it possible for us to see those

561
00:30:03,559 --> 00:30:04,759
things that come back in search results.

562
00:30:05,279 --> 00:30:09,039
Speaker 3: What about Journey krantz Ukright, Italy?

563
00:30:11,119 --> 00:30:13,319
Speaker 1: They have a checkered history.

564
00:30:13,799 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: Well, I just this is so tired and so stupid. Right,

565
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,119
everybody knows this. We've got a trouble pass Who doesn't?

566
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:22,519
Speaker 2: Right?

567
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 3: But why are we what? Why are we trying to

568
00:30:27,079 --> 00:30:30,240
prosecute today the moral failures of two hundred and fifty

569
00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:32,440
years ago? It's the this is so dumb.

570
00:30:32,599 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: Hey, if you're not willing to prosecute the moral failage

571
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,880
of today, you got to prosecute something. Right, we're of

572
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,039
a cause bigger than ourselves. We're going to go back

573
00:30:42,079 --> 00:30:43,359
and reprosecute the Civil War.

574
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 3: Well yeah, but these are moral failures. Today we're rectifying

575
00:30:47,559 --> 00:30:50,720
the moral ills of yesteryear. And the way we do

576
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,880
that is bi sexually mutilating children.

577
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:54,279
Speaker 1: Exactly.

578
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 3: It's the only way we can get this blood off

579
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:57,079
our hands.

580
00:30:58,039 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 1: Put more blood on our hands. All right, back into tech.

581
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,799
You have been calling the alarm on this Michael Sailor

582
00:31:06,319 --> 00:31:09,319
micro strategy. You've made it clear these are your opinions.

583
00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:12,559
This is you are nuts, an insider in the company,

584
00:31:12,799 --> 00:31:16,000
and this is my opinion. But you wrote this on

585
00:31:16,319 --> 00:31:18,759
Twitter what I find amusing. And by the way, well

586
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,319
let's just real quick if you don't know, this company

587
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,200
was kind of a i mean a player, a billion

588
00:31:24,279 --> 00:31:28,039
dollar company hardware software. And then Michael Sailor said, you

589
00:31:28,079 --> 00:31:29,880
know what, I'm going to become an entity that buys

590
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,079
bitcoin and now they're going to be worth are valued

591
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,599
at one hundred billion or more dollars. It's nuts. All

592
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,279
he does is buy bitcoin, but in a very interesting way,

593
00:31:40,599 --> 00:31:43,839
he's not even really buying it. He's renting it. And

594
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,119
then you invest in his fund by giving him money

595
00:31:46,119 --> 00:31:48,799
at a zero interest rate loan that he can convert

596
00:31:49,359 --> 00:31:51,759
to equity if he chooses to so, then you'd have

597
00:31:51,839 --> 00:31:54,240
equity in a company that doesn't even own the bitcoins.

598
00:31:54,839 --> 00:31:56,799
Here's what you wrote in response to the fact that

599
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:01,359
Michael Saylor went to Microsoft investors at the National Center

600
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,759
for Public Pulsary Research and he decided to try to

601
00:32:04,799 --> 00:32:08,720
get them to buy up a bunch of bitcoin. Microsoft

602
00:32:08,759 --> 00:32:10,960
can't afford to miss the next tech wave, and bitcoin

603
00:32:11,079 --> 00:32:13,279
is that wave, Sailor said in the video presentation which

604
00:32:13,279 --> 00:32:15,920
you're released on Twitter last week. It's more than three

605
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:20,839
million views. Microsoft's investors surprisingly said, no, We're not going

606
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,559
to do that. You wrote this, Zach. What I find

607
00:32:23,599 --> 00:32:26,640
amusing is if you believe is Sailor claims too, that

608
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,160
bitcoin is the ultimate asset in the future of money.

609
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,880
If you believe scarcity is the key to its value proposition,

610
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,759
why would you be lobbying others to drive up the price.

611
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,359
More importantly, if you're so sure it's the asset of

612
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,759
all assets, why would you jeopardize your own ability to

613
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:47,160
stay long by making such a massive levered bet. If

614
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:52,319
you get smoked long on this on Micro strategies. You

615
00:32:53,039 --> 00:32:56,079
deserve it. That's on you. So now that we have

616
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,039
more longer form, it's not Twitter explain this to me.

617
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 3: So what what And we've and we've looked into this.

618
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:10,519
There is one part about this investment strategy that if

619
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,640
you're a big bitcoin believer, that is interesting, and that

620
00:33:14,839 --> 00:33:20,319
to me is the bonds that Sailor is selling. And

621
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,480
I think I've walked you through this before, but what

622
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,440
what micro Strategy is doing is they are selling you know,

623
00:33:26,519 --> 00:33:28,720
it's forty billions so far. They got to plan to

624
00:33:28,799 --> 00:33:32,200
do another forty six billion something like that, but piles

625
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,279
of bonds that don't pay any interest. So what we

626
00:33:34,359 --> 00:33:37,720
call a zero coupon bond yep. And it is convertible

627
00:33:37,759 --> 00:33:41,200
in equity yep. Right, So if you're a bond holder,

628
00:33:41,799 --> 00:33:45,440
what you're hoping is that the value of bitcoin goes

629
00:33:45,519 --> 00:33:48,680
up a lot, it drives the price of the underlying

630
00:33:48,759 --> 00:33:52,400
equity up, okay, and then you would convert into the

631
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,960
equity at that point. And meanwhile, as a bond holder,

632
00:33:56,119 --> 00:33:59,400
you're doing all of that backed by bitcoin effectively, right,

633
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,839
because as a onholder, if something goes wrong with the company,

634
00:34:03,759 --> 00:34:08,760
you've got ownership rights to that bitcoin shareholders don't. And

635
00:34:09,119 --> 00:34:12,199
the reason we said that this is such a ridiculous play.

636
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,360
If you want to go buy the bonds, and again

637
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,079
I haven't done deep research on this, but just looking

638
00:34:18,159 --> 00:34:20,719
at it, there could be a reason to own the bonds.

639
00:34:21,519 --> 00:34:23,800
There could be, it could could be it could be

640
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,519
a sound investment to buy the bonds. I Don'm not

641
00:34:26,639 --> 00:34:31,199
saying that the equity side of this makes absolutely zero sense, right,

642
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:36,360
there's no ownership. Well, yeah, there's no ownership. And basically,

643
00:34:36,519 --> 00:34:39,840
if you wanted to think about how could we own

644
00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:44,840
bitcoin and neutralize all of the things about bitcoin that

645
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,039
we like, this is how you do it. Okay, The

646
00:34:49,119 --> 00:34:52,480
biggest things about bitcoin are there scarcity, right, meaning you're

647
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:54,119
not going to get diluted over time and you won't

648
00:34:54,119 --> 00:34:57,199
get inflated because they can't make any more of it, right,

649
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,800
And no intermediaries you don't have to work with anybody else,

650
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,320
don't have to have transa right, You've got it so

651
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,639
well by doing it this way, if you consider this

652
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,760
a bitcoin derivative or another way to have Bitcoin exposure,

653
00:35:09,119 --> 00:35:12,239
you just neutralize those two things. And they go, what

654
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,760
do you mean neutralize? And I go, guys, the debt

655
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:19,039
has zero coupon on it, and it's convertible, which means

656
00:35:19,079 --> 00:35:22,519
it's going to convert indequity, which dilutes you. Okay, so

657
00:35:23,079 --> 00:35:26,079
you basically just fiaded your bitcoin.

658
00:35:27,159 --> 00:35:30,519
Speaker 1: Huh you took it. You took the solution to the

659
00:35:30,599 --> 00:35:32,119
fiat currency and you fiaded it.

660
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:37,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, Oh okay, and instead of inflation, you get dilution,

661
00:35:38,119 --> 00:35:40,559
and the net result is the exact same. And if

662
00:35:40,599 --> 00:35:42,800
the company goes under, you have no claim on the

663
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:47,920
underlying asset. So literally, it's literally just like a crypt

664
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,239
it's literally just like a fiat currency. Right, we own

665
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,880
a US dollar? Does that mean that we have claims

666
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:58,599
directly to underlying US assets? No? Right, but what do

667
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:05,559
we get guaranteed over time? So literally it really is

668
00:36:05,639 --> 00:36:07,920
a clever structure, just like, hey, how could we own

669
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,719
bitcoin and fiat our bitcoin? This is how you do it.

670
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,559
Speaker 1: It's like lose money in every sale, but make up

671
00:36:12,599 --> 00:36:13,000
and volume.

672
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: Yes, And then on top of it, the underlying stock

673
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,519
moves typically at about three x to the movement a bitcoin.

674
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,840
So bitcoin goes up ten percent, this thing goes up thirty.

675
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,800
So not only is it ridiculous, but it's raw and

676
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:32,079
it like it's so you get less Bitcoin exposure, but

677
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,760
it gives you more upside supposedly. It's just it's nonsense.

678
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:36,840
It's a dream machine.

679
00:36:37,199 --> 00:36:39,199
Speaker 1: Okay, So then the dream machine of Apple we'll talk

680
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,639
about here in a second. So we have a longtime

681
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,119
partnership with Alan Soaps, and I want to make one

682
00:36:46,159 --> 00:36:50,039
more plea for Christmas time. There might still be time

683
00:36:50,079 --> 00:36:52,239
to get this into Christmas stockings, and I haven't done a.

684
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:52,800
Speaker 3: Good job of this.

685
00:36:53,559 --> 00:36:56,159
Speaker 1: There are people who have special needs kids and this

686
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,960
happens that they have to adjust their expectation for the care.

687
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:03,199
And this is really hard for parents. Parents say, well,

688
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:04,920
my kid's going to be he's going to go to

689
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,079
my college and he's going to pursue my profession. And

690
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,039
when they find out the kids have are non neurotypical,

691
00:37:10,079 --> 00:37:11,519
a lot of times for parents it can be oh

692
00:37:11,599 --> 00:37:15,519
my gosh, and it's a difficult thing to adjust expectations.

693
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,840
Doesn't mean that you stop loving, you stop pushing, stop believing.

694
00:37:19,599 --> 00:37:21,800
If there's still time go to Alan soaps dot com,

695
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,880
Sash Todd and there still might be for parents of

696
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,599
kids who have special needs for them to understand that

697
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:32,440
Alan has it really tough. He's effectively nonverbal. He has

698
00:37:32,519 --> 00:37:37,159
at eighteen operations. He's only fourteen years old, but he works.

699
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,880
He invents soap. He works at the company in quality control.

700
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:45,559
His brother Ian is impacted by autism. He works. He contributes.

701
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:50,679
Amy who got late on set autism. She's thriving, helping

702
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,599
with social media, et cetera. She was told she's hirable

703
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,599
and the soap is of pristine quality. There's no way

704
00:37:58,079 --> 00:38:00,760
John would put his son's name on a that sucked.

705
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,880
So they researched a family. They found them in the Midwest.

706
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,840
They are three generations into the soap crafting world. That's

707
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,960
what that's all they do. They took on the fragrances

708
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,599
that Alan thought of, that came from special memories for him.

709
00:38:15,039 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 3: They create.

710
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,519
Speaker 1: Those soaps are all natural, They're made in America. To

711
00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:21,360
give this to families with kids with special needs, partic

712
00:38:21,519 --> 00:38:23,760
of the younger kids, it's a side of hope and

713
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:26,519
every time they wash their bodies they can remember that. Yep,

714
00:38:26,679 --> 00:38:29,400
our kids too can work. Our kids can contribute. What

715
00:38:29,519 --> 00:38:31,679
the word saying is not true. So go to alansaps

716
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,480
dot com slash todd. That's alansoaps dot com slash todd.

717
00:38:36,599 --> 00:38:39,760
There's a chart in the show notes, and it's a

718
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,960
pretty simple one, and it's this that the white line

719
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:47,800
is the price of price and revenues. Blue line is

720
00:38:48,639 --> 00:38:54,039
the EPs Apple is now, that's the earning price per share.

721
00:38:54,679 --> 00:38:57,920
Apple's now trading just shy of ten times sales while

722
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,360
revenue and earning growth have stalled. The largest corporation in

723
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,320
the history of markets are index is just trading at

724
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,920
ten times sales. That's what you wrote. And the chart

725
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:10,679
is pretty amazing to look at that this is a

726
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:15,800
visual picture of value of a company completely unmoored by performance.

727
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,880
So much of this is driven by ETF. What percentage

728
00:39:20,039 --> 00:39:21,800
roughly speaking, and I know you have to, like you

729
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,440
could go check on this and be precise, but roughly speaking,

730
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:29,599
in our in this audience based podcast family, what percentage

731
00:39:29,639 --> 00:39:33,320
of people are victimized by ETF taking something like forty

732
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,440
percent of their dollars and pumping it into Apple, Facebook, Google,

733
00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:39,599
et cetera. With these five companies with no with no

734
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:41,239
performance ratings.

735
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,559
Speaker 3: Well, well victimized. They haven't been victimized yet.

736
00:39:45,679 --> 00:39:48,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, right, No, this has been served them well

737
00:39:48,199 --> 00:39:48,559
right now?

738
00:39:49,079 --> 00:39:51,199
Speaker 3: Well yeah, I mean that's how you get Costco to

739
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,519
sixty one times earnings. That's how you get a company

740
00:39:53,639 --> 00:39:58,119
like half times yeah costco. Man, that's how you get

741
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,239
Apple putting up its worst growth numbers in the last

742
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:03,639
twenty five years, and over that same period of time

743
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:08,199
when its growth is collapsed, the multiple doubled. Right, So

744
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,320
literally the growth and earnings went one direction, the price

745
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:15,199
of the stock went the opposite. And and and that's why, right,

746
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,239
I mean, that's why, because you've got this automated buying

747
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:22,000
that happens every single you know, just pretty much every day,

748
00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:27,000
and it's just coming into the system and it's agnostically buying.

749
00:40:27,159 --> 00:40:29,440
So for the first time in the history of of

750
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:35,880
US markets, over half of the transactions and probably and

751
00:40:36,119 --> 00:40:42,440
well over half of market transactions are done agnostic of fundamentals.

752
00:40:43,559 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 1: Right, fundamentals, No, because you've.

753
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,599
Speaker 3: Done because when you buy an ETF, there there, the

754
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:51,719
ETF isn't in there. It's just it's just market cap.

755
00:40:52,039 --> 00:40:54,119
So if you if you have a stock that you know,

756
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,559
let's say, well, I mean look now, to get in

757
00:40:57,599 --> 00:40:58,960
the S and P five hundred, you have to have

758
00:40:59,039 --> 00:41:01,199
earnings over a certain and you have to have positive

759
00:41:01,199 --> 00:41:03,719
earnings for so many quarters. There's certain criteria you've got

760
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:07,199
to hit. But let's say you had a company that was,

761
00:41:08,039 --> 00:41:10,559
you know, that went on a heater for whatever reason,

762
00:41:10,599 --> 00:41:14,199
you know, it captured the people's you know, imagination or whatever.

763
00:41:14,679 --> 00:41:16,039
And you had a company that was doing you know,

764
00:41:16,079 --> 00:41:17,840
two hundred million dollars a year in revenue and got

765
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,239
up to a five hundred billion dollar market cap like

766
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,760
every time somebody bought the S and P five hundred, which,

767
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:25,760
on the face of it is is that that's a

768
00:41:26,199 --> 00:41:30,440
conservative long term investment, right, you're not speculating on individual stocks,

769
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,840
you're just buying the market. Well, but you're not because

770
00:41:34,199 --> 00:41:39,000
investors used to determine right, buying and selling, researching, shorting,

771
00:41:39,039 --> 00:41:43,239
all that kind of stuff. Investors used to determine market prices. Okay,

772
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:47,320
but now the biggest force in the market are index dtfs.

773
00:41:47,519 --> 00:41:50,639
Speaker 1: It's inertia. Yeah, force in the market is inertia.

774
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 3: Yeah. And what's really funny is that there are professional

775
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,760
guys out there in this industry that will try to

776
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,679
take the other side of this argument and try to

777
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,320
convince you it's not impacting price, and you're looking at

778
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:07,519
them going, how could it not, Like, why don't you

779
00:42:07,599 --> 00:42:11,039
explain to me how it couldn't and it's really simple.

780
00:42:11,599 --> 00:42:14,000
You look at the flows going in and out of

781
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:17,880
triple Q in the SMP five hundred ETF, you do

782
00:42:18,039 --> 00:42:20,760
what six percent of that is? Because every time somebody

783
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,960
buys one of those ETFs, six six and a half

784
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,880
percent somewhere around there goes directly into Apple. So you

785
00:42:26,039 --> 00:42:28,639
do that basic math, and then you look at that

786
00:42:29,559 --> 00:42:33,239
amount of money versus the daily trading volume of Apple,

787
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:38,320
and you're sitting there going, wow, that's a pretty substantial chunk, right,

788
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,599
if not the majority of the trading activity. And then

789
00:42:40,639 --> 00:42:43,320
you're gonna sit there and tell me, because remember, everybody

790
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,800
putting money into the SMP five hundred isn't making the

791
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:51,599
implicit decision of saying, I like Apple. Here, I'm buying Apple.

792
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,960
That's not the decision they're making. They're just throwing money

793
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:58,039
in the market, right, And the ETF does not make

794
00:42:58,199 --> 00:43:03,800
any observations about out, you know, financial stability, affordability, price

795
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,519
valuation fundamentals. The only thing it's looking at is market cap.

796
00:43:08,039 --> 00:43:11,639
So it keeps feeding the big companies the money, and

797
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,480
they get bigger, and as they get bigger, they draw

798
00:43:14,599 --> 00:43:18,599
individual investors because look, those stocks never go down, so

799
00:43:19,039 --> 00:43:23,000
they buy them individually, right, and then the market performs

800
00:43:23,039 --> 00:43:25,639
better and people dump more money into the ETFs and

801
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,280
just round and round and rounds you go. And at

802
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:33,920
some point something tips over that first domino, and it's

803
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,679
just it's hard to know. And like I said, when

804
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,280
you look at the action of today, and this is

805
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:43,159
what's scary. Now, don't panic about today. Right, the market's

806
00:43:43,199 --> 00:43:45,039
back to where it was a week and a half Agough, Okay,

807
00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:48,360
not a big deal. But here's what's the problem. Is

808
00:43:48,639 --> 00:43:52,480
in an environment like this, where the majority of money

809
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:56,800
is getting placed into these investments in a value or

810
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:03,880
fundamentally agnostic way, at some point the market focuses on

811
00:44:04,039 --> 00:44:10,639
reality and at that point, prices can evaporate just out

812
00:44:10,679 --> 00:44:12,519
of thin air. So you look at it today, just

813
00:44:12,599 --> 00:44:15,599
out of nowhere. Market was basically trading for la most

814
00:44:15,639 --> 00:44:19,400
of the session, boomin within over a twenty minute period

815
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:20,639
of time, you're down three and a half percent.

816
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: Yep, that's what it looks like. And it's all in

817
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,800
that tech sector. And again we've talked about this that

818
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,559
that tech sector has some things in common like need

819
00:44:30,679 --> 00:44:35,840
for electricity and the ability to be hacked.

820
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: So you and that stuff so cheap, right, that stuff

821
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:42,440
so cheap. I was looking at it. I was looking

822
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:45,239
at the GDX, the gold mining ETF. Today it's getting

823
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:48,960
up right. The GDX is back to the same level

824
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:50,880
it was at when gold was at like fifteen hundred

825
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:54,760
bucks an ounce. You're you're at twenty six changed today.

826
00:44:55,519 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: It's crazy, insane. It was great to have you on

827
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,079
my friends. Merry Christmas to you and your family. Our

828
00:45:01,159 --> 00:45:02,159
Savior is born.

829
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 3: Hey, he was born. Indeed, it's going to be a

830
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,079
very merry bipop Christmas at our house. And I wish

831
00:45:08,159 --> 00:45:11,400
you and the listeners are very merry Christmas and God's

832
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:12,239
blessing in the new year.

833
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,360
Speaker 1: Appreciate you, Zach Lord, Thank you for the gift of

834
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,360
your son. Thank you for the gift of Christmas and

835
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,840
the gift of boys counsel. This is the Todd Herman Show.

836
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:21,320
Please go, be well, be strong, be kind, Please make

837
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,119
every effort to walk in the light of Christ.

