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Speaker 2: I'm at eazelak on fifty five KRCD talk station six
Speaker 2: point thirty right now, if do you have CARCV talk
Speaker 2: station and always enjoy this time a week get to
Speaker 2: talk to Daniel Davis retired with a Colonel Daniel Davis
Speaker 2: with the Daniel Davis Deep Dive. You can find his
Speaker 2: podcast where you get your podcast. Welcome back, my friend.
Speaker 2: It's always a pleasure to have you on the show.
Speaker 1: Always a pleasure to be here.
Speaker 2: Brian can't wait forgive the camera angle change. I came
Speaker 2: in here this morning and someone had shifted switched up
Speaker 2: the cameras, and I'm not the tech guy. I have
Speaker 2: no idea how to get the camera back, so I'm
Speaker 2: kind of looking at you from a different angle. Apologies,
Speaker 2: but I can see you, and We've got a lot
Speaker 2: to talk about this morning. Let's start with Russia Ukraine.
Speaker 2: They had a Russia massive strike on Kiv the other day,
Speaker 2: and I know Trump's been trying to finagle some negotiations.
Speaker 2: Putin's not necessarily cooperating. Trump then has a conversation with Zelensky,
Speaker 2: and after saying last week that we weren't going to
Speaker 2: be providing any additional arms, I wake up to find
Speaker 2: out that Trump is now resuming sending weapons to Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Question for you Daniel Davis. After all the converse we've
Speaker 2: had on this, can it do any good? Will additional weaponshipments,
Speaker 2: whatever they happen to be, have an impact on the
Speaker 2: direction of this war, which is not going well for Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why I'm kind of scratching my head as well,
Speaker 3: because I thought the ideal that they should withhold the
Speaker 3: weapons was good a week ago when you and I
Speaker 3: last talked, Because look, there is a certain number of
Speaker 3: ammunition stockpiles, especially most importantly on interceptor missiles air defense
Speaker 3: interceptor missiles. That's something that there is a certain number
Speaker 3: that the United States has to keep in our stockpiles
Speaker 3: in the event that we get into a war, especially
Speaker 3: one that has to be sustained for some period of time.
Speaker 3: We've got to have enough to provide for our own
Speaker 3: national defense. Sean Parnell the Defense Department last week said that, hey,
Speaker 3: we did a review. Turns out that we're getting close
Speaker 3: to that. So we have to look out for the
Speaker 3: needs of America first and will help Ukraine as we can.
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden last night and the
Speaker 3: President to completely change his course when he was talking
Speaker 3: with reporters with NETANYAHUU over dinner and says no, actually,
Speaker 3: now we're gonna go ahead and do it.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: It's unclear exactly what that is because he specifically said
Speaker 3: defensive weapons. They need some help, but he didn't say
Speaker 3: what those weapons were. Is it is it defensive interceptor missiles,
Speaker 3: is it more artillery. It's unclear because they haven't specified
Speaker 3: what it was. Sean Parnell listed or issued a statement
Speaker 3: last night confirming what the President had said, but he
Speaker 3: also didn't say what the weapons were or anything else.
Speaker 1: So we don't know what that is.
Speaker 3: But I can tell you authoritatively, whatever they are, it's
Speaker 3: going to be in small numbers and it is absolutely
Speaker 3: not going to have any impact on the war at all.
Speaker 3: I mean, when we had everything in the world, especially
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three for that offensive,
Speaker 3: if that didn't change the dynamic, this small trickle, just
Speaker 3: to a slightly larger small trickle is also not going
Speaker 3: to change the term.
Speaker 1: So I'm not really sure what the objective is here
Speaker 1: for the US.
Speaker 2: Well, the listed armaments, at least as a report of
Speaker 2: the Wall Street journally start out patriot anti missile interceptors,
Speaker 2: and we can that's what I want to focus on,
Speaker 2: but AM one twenty anti aircraft missiles. Howit's arounds, AGM
Speaker 2: one fourteen hell fires missiles to arm the hi Mars
Speaker 2: rocket launchers, Stinger anti tank missiles and grenade launchers. But
Speaker 2: focusing on the Patriots. Those are the defensive weapons. Those
Speaker 2: are the ones that shoot the rockets coming in from
Speaker 2: the foe. Now I seem to have read and correct
Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong. If you saw something different that
Speaker 2: there was expectation that Russia could maybe launch as many
Speaker 2: as a thousand rockets at Kiev or pick another target
Speaker 2: or area of targets. I mean, you're not going to
Speaker 2: send over one thousand Patriot missiles. I mean, these things
Speaker 2: are multimillion dollars a pop. And the idea of shooting
Speaker 2: down that kind of barrage of missiles, it just seems
Speaker 2: like it's an impossible task.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Well, the claims that there will be a thousand, there
Speaker 3: could be soon up to one thousand air Ara objects
Speaker 3: going towards Ukraine. So those combination of drones and missiles,
Speaker 3: and what the Ukraine side has done is that they
Speaker 3: limit the air interceptor missiles only to like the kinsols
Speaker 3: or the cruise missiles et cetera. They don't shoot them
Speaker 3: at the drones. Problem is you can't just ignore the
Speaker 3: drones because the drones are often sent to the missile batteries,
Speaker 3: and if you don't take those things out, then you're
Speaker 3: not going to have them to shoot the missiles down
Speaker 3: later on, which is one of the Russian objectives. But
Speaker 3: the bigger issue is we don't have them. It's not
Speaker 3: even as important how much each of those interceptor missiles cost,
Speaker 3: and you're right there, very very expensive.
Speaker 1: But the problem is how many we have.
Speaker 3: According to open source information, we produce maybe six hundred
Speaker 3: per year. And in that and a blast like this,
Speaker 3: you could use thirty forty or even more interceptor missiles
Speaker 3: in one barush And you can see that's not gonna
Speaker 3: last any time at all for the whole year. And
Speaker 3: we can't go down on our own stock policy. We
Speaker 3: put our national security at risk. So I just don't
Speaker 3: know how you're going to square this circle. Well, what's
Speaker 3: your prediction for what happens next? If Phutan's not willing
Speaker 3: to sit down. I mean it was Zelenski's all giddy
Speaker 3: with excitement about getting another arms shipment, but that doesn't
Speaker 3: solve the problem. It doesn't solve the problem of their
Speaker 3: manpower shortage, and it doesn't solve the problem of Russia
Speaker 3: making further and further inroads in the Ukraine territory. Now,
Speaker 3: a couple of things that happened in the last week
Speaker 3: since you and I talked. Julian and Urupka for the
Speaker 3: German journalist, who's probably one of the best cover in
Speaker 3: the war in the West. He's very pro Ukraine, but
Speaker 3: he admitted in an interview on the July first that hey,
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, folks, but there are not enough Ukrainian men.
Speaker 3: He said, there are sometimes just a handful of men
Speaker 3: to defend an entire village, and the Russians have more men,
Speaker 3: and they have more bombs, they have more drones, et cetera.
Speaker 3: So they're able to take them methodically one after the other,
Speaker 3: even if it's slow.
Speaker 1: The Ukraine side can't stop them. That's the one issue.
Speaker 3: Then on the second side, you had just last night
Speaker 3: you had Sergei Lavrov again say hey, look, we want
Speaker 3: to have a negotiated settlement. We're looking we're inviting the
Speaker 3: Ukraine side to come back to the third round of
Speaker 3: direct talks, which they've had two up so far in
Speaker 3: this nimbool, but then he listed his conditions, which are
Speaker 3: just as draconing as they have ever been. Meanwhile, Russia
Speaker 3: has made more offensive operations and advancements in the area Pakrosk,
Speaker 3: and they have now resumed their offensive in Assumi area
Speaker 3: and then also kind of in the northern Kupeyansk area,
Speaker 3: et cetera. So they are continuing to relentlessly onslaught move
Speaker 3: in as they say they want negotiated settlement, and you
Speaker 3: have the Ukraine side doesn't have enough manpower and they
Speaker 3: don't have enough ammunition to do anything on the battlefield,
Speaker 3: So well, where's it going. Russia's gonna win the war
Speaker 3: if we don't have a negotiated settlement.
Speaker 2: That's well, and that's obviously from you have to give
Speaker 2: them props the Russians for having these strategic objective in
Speaker 2: their sits. Continue to pound away, you're winning, You're whittling
Speaker 2: down their troops the virtually nothing, they're running out of munitions,
Speaker 2: and that pushes us further and for to a point
Speaker 2: of capitulation where we get what we want.
Speaker 1: Draconian as our terms may be.
Speaker 3: Well, that's the point, and either they're gonna and they
Speaker 3: keep saying this, and they've never said anything else. Quite frankly,
Speaker 3: they're either going to get it through a negotiated settlement,
Speaker 3: which are these draconian terms, right, or they're just gonna
Speaker 3: seize it on the battlefield. And they're showing that they
Speaker 3: have the capacity. And believe me, Russia is able to
Speaker 3: read the newspapers too. They know how few ammunition or
Speaker 3: how little ammunition the Ukraine side, the Western side has
Speaker 3: to give, and they know that they are continuing to
Speaker 3: shrink the Ukraine army every day, because it is clear
Speaker 3: that Ukraine is not able to force mobilize as many
Speaker 3: people as they lose on a daily basis, probably in
Speaker 3: the order of several thousand, and so that means every
Speaker 3: month their army is shrinking, and that diversity or that
Speaker 3: disparity that Julian Rupka noted is only going to increase.
Speaker 3: And at some point, Brian, at some point there has
Speaker 3: to almost methodically, mathematically, there must be a break somewhere,
Speaker 3: and then the Russians have one hundred of thousands of
Speaker 3: operational reserves that they can flood into a break if
Speaker 3: they find one.
Speaker 1: That's where we're at.
Speaker 2: Doesn't paint a very pretty fixture, at least for Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Right now.
Speaker 2: Pivoting over to the Israel Iran situation, I see Iran
Speaker 2: basically cracking down on its people, confiscating cell phones, murdering
Speaker 2: or executing a lot of people that they believe to
Speaker 2: be friendly with Israel, perhaps spies, I don't know. The
Speaker 2: graduate imagine the sweep is a little bit broader than
Speaker 2: people who are actually guilty of cooperating with Israel. But
Speaker 2: that seems the direction they're going. I presume that the
Speaker 2: powers of beer a little worried about a coup or
Speaker 2: perhaps like a military coup for example, or a popular uprising.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they are the.
Speaker 3: Issue with the surprise attack by Israel on the so
Speaker 3: called twelve day War, because it was predicated or started
Speaker 3: with Massad agents being physically inside the and you know,
Speaker 3: firing these drunes off, very similar to what the Ukraine
Speaker 3: side did to Russia a month or so ago and
Speaker 3: the bomber fleet.
Speaker 1: The Massad agents did the same thing.
Speaker 3: Well, they had to have some help on the ground,
Speaker 3: that much was very clear, and they had locations all
Speaker 3: over that had a much bigger effect than just a
Speaker 3: tactical help.
Speaker 1: On the first couple of days of the war. Now
Speaker 1: it has the.
Speaker 3: Iranian regime and a panic, and so they were cracking down.
Speaker 3: And I actually had a conversation yesterday online with a
Speaker 3: friend of mine who has direct contacts in the Iranian side,
Speaker 3: and they're just in anguish, especially the Kurds, because the
Speaker 3: regime is using this opportunity to crack down on anyone's
Speaker 3: eeming suspected of anything, and they're definitely going way overward
Speaker 3: because they figure, look, let's just use a big net
Speaker 3: and that way we'll be sure to get the all
Speaker 3: of them, even if we get some people who aren't guilty. Yeah,
Speaker 3: whatever sucks to be done, but we're gonna do it.
Speaker 3: That seems to be their attitude. And the Iranians have
Speaker 3: to be careful with that because if they go too
Speaker 3: far on that, they could actually cause some of the
Speaker 3: simmering hatred toward their regime from the inside that could
Speaker 3: give it fuel. It remains to be seen, and this
Speaker 3: source who's been connected for many years and wants to
Speaker 3: see an uprising on inside, says, so far, it's not
Speaker 3: that far. It's not gone that direction because the opposition
Speaker 3: is not unified enough. But if you keep pushing pressure,
Speaker 3: you could create it just briefly before we part company today,
Speaker 3: Daniel Davis, a brief word or two on the Hoothy's
Speaker 3: firing rockets at ships.
Speaker 2: Going off the coast. There, Where is this going and
Speaker 2: where do you see this ending? I mean, if I
Speaker 2: can even use that broad of a question for you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was another ship that was sunk in the
Speaker 3: Red Sea, which the Houthis claim was a ship going
Speaker 3: to that was helping Israel. It was from a company
Speaker 3: that already has one ship in a port at Israel.
Speaker 3: So that's the connection between the two here. But this
Speaker 3: just shows that despite what we did to the Hoothi's
Speaker 3: despote with the Israelis, because they also launched another series
Speaker 3: of a taxi gainst toothie targets in some ports, et cetera.
Speaker 3: You're just not gonna shut him down. They just are
Speaker 3: going to suffer and suck down whatever missiles you want
Speaker 3: to send. But they are committed to what they're doing
Speaker 3: and they're going to continue to fire at some lower level,
Speaker 3: but some level it is as they've been doing for
Speaker 3: a full decade already against the Saudi's, against US and
Speaker 3: against Israel. You're just not going to shut this down. Okay,
Speaker 3: real quick to what end? Yeah, they have to warn something.
Speaker 3: But if they're I mean they're if they're if they're
Speaker 3: not shooting the hoothies, do they want the war against
Speaker 3: the the the Palestinians in Gaza to stop?
Speaker 1: They said, if you stop that, we stopped this one.
Speaker 3: And when we had the ceasefire last time, they did
Speaker 3: until we started attacking again. So if there is a ceasefire,
Speaker 3: if Trump is able to get a ceasefire with Nan Yahoo,
Speaker 3: as he says he may be within a week, then
Speaker 3: that will also stop.
Speaker 1: Huh.
Speaker 2: Well, maybe there is a bright spot in this discussion.
Speaker 2: Daniel Davis Daniel Davis Deep Dive every Tuesday here in
Speaker 2: the fifty five Jarsey Morning Show. Of course you can
Speaker 2: find his podcast throughout the week. Daniel, always a pleasure
Speaker 2: having in the program Sir, my.
Speaker 1: Pleasure, my friends.
Speaker 2: See you next time next Tuesday. It's a forty two
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