Speaker 1: President Trump signaling the US will lean on economic pressure
Speaker 1: to bend Iran after we showcased our military strength against
Speaker 1: the regime. Now, as Tehran presses for concessions, some lawmakers
Speaker 1: say our tactics are working when it comes to reopening
Speaker 1: the Strait of Hormos.
Speaker 2: What you see now as an act of desperation, I
Speaker 2: think because President Trump had prepared to unleash unmitigated fury
Speaker 2: on Iran just the past weekend when they came to
Speaker 2: the table again and said no, we want to make
Speaker 2: a deal.
Speaker 3: And so we are having success getting oil out of
Speaker 3: the strait, and that success blunts the effectiveness of what
Speaker 3: the Iranians are trying to do at the Strait of Hormoz.
Speaker 3: It's not something ends it tomorrow, but something which gradually
Speaker 3: brings it to a close.
Speaker 1: However, Iran is now demanding major concessions to reopen the waterway,
Speaker 1: raising the question does Tehran have the upper hand or
Speaker 1: is it overplaying it. Joining me now to discuss this
Speaker 1: is national security expert and military analyst, doctor Rebecca Grant.
Speaker 4: Doctor, thank you so much for join the program.
Speaker 1: Aroan knows that as long as the strait is closed,
Speaker 1: energy prices will remain high for Americans ahead of an
Speaker 1: election coming up in November.
Speaker 4: Who is more desperate to end this war?
Speaker 5: Oh, there is no question that Iran is in the
Speaker 5: desperate position. The IRGC would love to make some money
Speaker 5: off the Straight, but it's just not going to happen.
Speaker 5: Thanks to the US Navy, President Trump is able to
Speaker 5: sit back and take his time and basically ignore all
Speaker 5: these demands. And the reason is, as jd Vance hinted
Speaker 5: over the weekend, there is oil coming out of the
Speaker 5: Straight through pipelines and also through dark transits and ship
Speaker 5: to ship transfers. Those international mariners are a pretty clever
Speaker 5: bunch and there is quite a bit coming out and
Speaker 5: that's why we hear this talk about oil continuing to flow.
Speaker 5: So Iran is never going to have leverage over the
Speaker 5: Strait of Hormuz in the long term.
Speaker 1: We're definitely seeing the American military might. However, a lot
Speaker 1: of the demands that we saw early in this war
Speaker 1: regarding Iran's nuclear program are now applying just to reopen
Speaker 1: the Straight of Horror moves over the weekend, Ron laying
Speaker 1: out those demands, which include billions of dollars in sanctioned relief,
Speaker 1: even war reparations they're calling for, and US troops withdrawing
Speaker 1: from the region and ending the naval blockade. What did
Speaker 1: you think of that? Over the weekend, as the regime
Speaker 1: laid out their new demands.
Speaker 5: Oh, Iran's demands are completely unreasonable and they really show
Speaker 5: that the IRGC is out of options. All they can
Speaker 5: do now is these occasional terroristic like attacks towards international
Speaker 5: shipping and towards US bases. But remember we still have
Speaker 5: fifty thousand US service members. There are two aircraft carriers,
Speaker 5: the mpbship Boxer destroyers, the list goes on. Are space
Speaker 5: force watching all that as well? You know, the alarming
Speaker 5: point to me is what becomes of the nuclear dust.
Speaker 5: But let's remember we have extremely good overwatch of that
Speaker 5: area and we have ended Iran's ability to enrich and
Speaker 5: that path to a nuclear weapon. Iran responds to US
Speaker 5: military pressure, and Admiral Cooper will keep that pressure on
Speaker 5: as long as he needs to.
Speaker 1: And President Trump has repeatedly threatened to increase that military pressure. However,
Speaker 1: over the weekend he sort of changed his tune a bit,
Speaker 1: seemingly keen now on applying more economic pressure or at
Speaker 1: least allowing the current economic pressure to play out over
Speaker 1: a longer period, potentially leading to unrest within Iran.
Speaker 4: Is there even a chance of that happening?
Speaker 1: Domestic unrest with the control that the regime has over
Speaker 1: its people, I.
Speaker 5: Sure would love to see that. And we know that
Speaker 5: the IRGC really is weakened. Remember they're not just a
Speaker 5: military force, they're in business as well. So the blockade,
Speaker 5: the steel wall, the sanctions that the Treasury Department has
Speaker 5: put on them, all the other economic pressure really does
Speaker 5: have a direct effect in the end on the IERGC
Speaker 5: as well. That's a really huge element. The other reason
Speaker 5: we can do this is because of the level of
Speaker 5: air and sea dominance, and there strikes a few weeks
Speaker 5: ago that cleaned up a lot of the IERGC activity
Speaker 5: along the coast or there. Now there's always the option
Speaker 5: to go in big if necessary. But right now, President
Speaker 5: Trump wants to see that economic pressure play out, and
Speaker 5: because oil markets are flowing, not to the extent we
Speaker 5: want to see, but the oil markets are moving. We
Speaker 5: do have some ships coming out of Hormoos oil coming
Speaker 5: through that. He's got the ability to play both the
Speaker 5: economic and the military at the same time. And it's
Speaker 5: a good position, strong position for.
Speaker 1: The USA, and he certainly has his hands full because
Speaker 1: there's always a lot going on in the region. All
Speaker 1: this comes as Israel is pushing back on the new
Speaker 1: Gaza peace Plan, with Prime Minister Benjamin et Yahoo essentially
Speaker 1: saying that all weapons will need to be removed from Gaza,
Speaker 1: light weapons, heavy weapons, all of them. Some saying this
Speaker 1: is sort of a timing difference. Is it actually a
Speaker 1: timing difference or is this a fundamental difference that's going
Speaker 1: to be difficult for the US to mediate.
Speaker 5: The sticking point, as you point out, is when does
Speaker 5: the IDF the Israeli Defense Forces do their phase withdrawal
Speaker 5: and noa who has said now, not till we have
Speaker 5: Hamas completely disarmed. I think there's going to need to
Speaker 5: be some middle ground there. Remember Israel does have an
Speaker 5: election coming up in October as well. The good news
Speaker 5: to me is there's now very concrete talk about the
Speaker 5: Board of Peace, international stabilization for US, with troops from
Speaker 5: places like Morocco, Uganda, Indonesia ready to come in and
Speaker 5: do the policing of Gaza. Because the key is you
Speaker 5: do have to disarm Hamas the rest of the way,
Speaker 5: So that nothing like October seventh can ever happen again.
Speaker 1: All right, Rebecca Grant, thank you so much for your
Speaker 1: insight this morning. Be sure to like and subscribe for
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