WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump signaling the US will lean on economic pressure

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<v Speaker 1>to bend Iran after we showcased our military strength against

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<v Speaker 1>the regime. Now, as Tehran presses for concessions, some lawmakers

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<v Speaker 1>say our tactics are working when it comes to reopening

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<v Speaker 1>the Strait of Hormos.

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<v Speaker 2>What you see now as an act of desperation, I

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<v Speaker 2>think because President Trump had prepared to unleash unmitigated fury

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<v Speaker 2>on Iran just the past weekend when they came to

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<v Speaker 2>the table again and said no, we want to make

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<v Speaker 2>a deal.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we are having success getting oil out of

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<v Speaker 3>the strait, and that success blunts the effectiveness of what

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranians are trying to do at the Strait of Hormoz.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not something ends it tomorrow, but something which gradually

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<v Speaker 3>brings it to a close.

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<v Speaker 1>However, Iran is now demanding major concessions to reopen the waterway,

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<v Speaker 1>raising the question does Tehran have the upper hand or

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<v Speaker 1>is it overplaying it. Joining me now to discuss this

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<v Speaker 1>is national security expert and military analyst, doctor Rebecca Grant.

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<v Speaker 4>Doctor, thank you so much for join the program.

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<v Speaker 1>Aroan knows that as long as the strait is closed,

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<v Speaker 1>energy prices will remain high for Americans ahead of an

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<v Speaker 1>election coming up in November.

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<v Speaker 4>Who is more desperate to end this war?

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<v Speaker 5>Oh, there is no question that Iran is in the

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<v Speaker 5>desperate position. The IRGC would love to make some money

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<v Speaker 5>off the Straight, but it's just not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 5>Thanks to the US Navy, President Trump is able to

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<v Speaker 5>sit back and take his time and basically ignore all

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<v Speaker 5>these demands. And the reason is, as jd Vance hinted

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<v Speaker 5>over the weekend, there is oil coming out of the

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<v Speaker 5>Straight through pipelines and also through dark transits and ship

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<v Speaker 5>to ship transfers. Those international mariners are a pretty clever

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<v Speaker 5>bunch and there is quite a bit coming out and

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<v Speaker 5>that's why we hear this talk about oil continuing to flow.

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<v Speaker 5>So Iran is never going to have leverage over the

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<v Speaker 5>Strait of Hormuz in the long term.

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<v Speaker 1>We're definitely seeing the American military might. However, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the demands that we saw early in this war

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<v Speaker 1>regarding Iran's nuclear program are now applying just to reopen

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<v Speaker 1>the Straight of Horror moves over the weekend, Ron laying

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<v Speaker 1>out those demands, which include billions of dollars in sanctioned relief,

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<v Speaker 1>even war reparations they're calling for, and US troops withdrawing

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<v Speaker 1>from the region and ending the naval blockade. What did

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<v Speaker 1>you think of that? Over the weekend, as the regime

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<v Speaker 1>laid out their new demands.

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<v Speaker 5>Oh, Iran's demands are completely unreasonable and they really show

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<v Speaker 5>that the IRGC is out of options. All they can

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<v Speaker 5>do now is these occasional terroristic like attacks towards international

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<v Speaker 5>shipping and towards US bases. But remember we still have

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<v Speaker 5>fifty thousand US service members. There are two aircraft carriers,

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<v Speaker 5>the mpbship Boxer destroyers, the list goes on. Are space

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<v Speaker 5>force watching all that as well? You know, the alarming

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<v Speaker 5>point to me is what becomes of the nuclear dust.

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<v Speaker 5>But let's remember we have extremely good overwatch of that

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<v Speaker 5>area and we have ended Iran's ability to enrich and

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<v Speaker 5>that path to a nuclear weapon. Iran responds to US

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<v Speaker 5>military pressure, and Admiral Cooper will keep that pressure on

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<v Speaker 5>as long as he needs to.

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<v Speaker 1>And President Trump has repeatedly threatened to increase that military pressure. However,

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend he sort of changed his tune a bit,

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<v Speaker 1>seemingly keen now on applying more economic pressure or at

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<v Speaker 1>least allowing the current economic pressure to play out over

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<v Speaker 1>a longer period, potentially leading to unrest within Iran.

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<v Speaker 4>Is there even a chance of that happening?

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<v Speaker 1>Domestic unrest with the control that the regime has over

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<v Speaker 1>its people, I.

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<v Speaker 5>Sure would love to see that. And we know that

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<v Speaker 5>the IRGC really is weakened. Remember they're not just a

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<v Speaker 5>military force, they're in business as well. So the blockade,

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<v Speaker 5>the steel wall, the sanctions that the Treasury Department has

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<v Speaker 5>put on them, all the other economic pressure really does

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<v Speaker 5>have a direct effect in the end on the IERGC

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<v Speaker 5>as well. That's a really huge element. The other reason

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<v Speaker 5>we can do this is because of the level of

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<v Speaker 5>air and sea dominance, and there strikes a few weeks

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<v Speaker 5>ago that cleaned up a lot of the IERGC activity

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<v Speaker 5>along the coast or there. Now there's always the option

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<v Speaker 5>to go in big if necessary. But right now, President

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<v Speaker 5>Trump wants to see that economic pressure play out, and

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<v Speaker 5>because oil markets are flowing, not to the extent we

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<v Speaker 5>want to see, but the oil markets are moving. We

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<v Speaker 5>do have some ships coming out of Hormoos oil coming

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<v Speaker 5>through that. He's got the ability to play both the

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<v Speaker 5>economic and the military at the same time. And it's

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<v Speaker 5>a good position, strong position for.

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<v Speaker 1>The USA, and he certainly has his hands full because

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<v Speaker 1>there's always a lot going on in the region. All

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<v Speaker 1>this comes as Israel is pushing back on the new

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza peace Plan, with Prime Minister Benjamin et Yahoo essentially

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<v Speaker 1>saying that all weapons will need to be removed from Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>light weapons, heavy weapons, all of them. Some saying this

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of a timing difference. Is it actually a

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<v Speaker 1>timing difference or is this a fundamental difference that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be difficult for the US to mediate.

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<v Speaker 5>The sticking point, as you point out, is when does

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<v Speaker 5>the IDF the Israeli Defense Forces do their phase withdrawal

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<v Speaker 5>and noa who has said now, not till we have

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<v Speaker 5>Hamas completely disarmed. I think there's going to need to

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<v Speaker 5>be some middle ground there. Remember Israel does have an

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<v Speaker 5>election coming up in October as well. The good news

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<v Speaker 5>to me is there's now very concrete talk about the

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<v Speaker 5>Board of Peace, international stabilization for US, with troops from

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<v Speaker 5>places like Morocco, Uganda, Indonesia ready to come in and

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<v Speaker 5>do the policing of Gaza. Because the key is you

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<v Speaker 5>do have to disarm Hamas the rest of the way,

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<v Speaker 5>So that nothing like October seventh can ever happen again.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Rebecca Grant, thank you so much for your

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<v Speaker 1>insight this morning. Be sure to like and subscribe for

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