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Speaker 1: What is up, mellosiccos we have a disappointing podcast to

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record today.

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Speaker 2: I damn Valley. I'm joined by my certified.

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Speaker 1: Fantabulous co host mister dran Luis.

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Speaker 2: We have apologies Maya Kulpas to announce the droves at

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this point. We were wrong, and honestly, I'm not sorry.

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Are you sorry? Grant?

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry. We have to admit we were wrong. That's

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about as far as it goes. But we were wrong

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in many, many ways, and we're gonna account for that today.

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Speaker 1: Would anyone listen to a podcast in which we just

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we were right and suck it or something like?

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Speaker 2: We should do episode like that and see if anyone

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enjoys it.

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Speaker 1: The way we're gonna approach this though, so we're gonna

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go through some of our more like specific preseason predictions

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and okay, we missed on this, but we're gonna look

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at teams that we missed on in general first relative

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to just like their overall performance. It's not based on

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who outperformed, they're over under the most. However, we will

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get to that at the end of the episode. We

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will also be announcing the winner of the Hardwood Knocks

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over under competition who gets a merch item of their choice,

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and two will get to be a guest host for

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a guests a player where they will read grant and

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eye the clues and we will try to collabor We

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haven't collaborated on a guest a player ever, so that

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might be a disaster.

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Speaker 3: But I think we're going to be unbeatable if I'm honest.

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That's what I think.

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Speaker 1: Your confidence is just it's so admirable. But yeah, how

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are you how are you feeling just before we before

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we dive into this, knowing that you had to go

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through your body of work, out catalog of work, how

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are you actually feeling about your level of hits versus

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missus this year?

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Speaker 3: I mean really there, So I will say that going

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back and looking for predictions or just like takes from

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mostly mostly like the September October range, like just near

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like late preseason, there's a lot of misses. Fortunately, I

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think actually, you know, I don't know we can commiserate

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on some of this because we were in similar ways

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on a lot of these. But there are also some

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gems in there that I felt good about that we

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like correctly called, you know, some some Portland stuff. We're

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gonna miss that over under obviously, but like, just as

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an example, and I think we even said we did

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say on the pod, like, hey, are they actually sneaky?

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Like really good or at least you know, good good

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bad or bad good or whatever whatever term you prefer.

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So there are there are instances or there were looking

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back at this where I was like, all right, I

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wasn't you know, I wasn't out of my mind entirely,

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Like there's some there's some good calls, but we are

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not here to talk about those unless we really shoehorn

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them in. And I will say like this, I don't

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know what. Tell me if you felt this too. As

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I was looking back and seeing, Okay, well that's wrong,

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We're gonna have to include that in the discussion, I

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still am like, yeah.

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Speaker 4: But the logic was pretty good.

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Speaker 3: Like I still am like I think I could talk

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myself into that again, like or like I still kind

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of feel that way. Say about the Clippers, like all

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my doubts are a lot of them are still there

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as we go to the playoffs, and they're part of it.

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Speaker 1: How do you when I think the teams were gonna

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start with are just sort of the obvious ones to

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where it's okay, like if they were I don't know,

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do I do you feel worse?

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Speaker 2: Let me frame it this way.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel worse if you just missed on a

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team like the Clippers where they were just so much

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better than you expected, or a team like Philly where

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there their season was ruined by injury but then you

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kind of look up, Well that was on the table.

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Speaker 2: Did I just not consider that? I'd say, ditto with

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the Pelicans.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do I feel worse.

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Speaker 1: I think it's of this show is to make you

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feel bad, But which one makes you feel more bad?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 4: I think?

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Speaker 3: I think the Clippers as an example, that feels to

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me like a bigger miss than to use the Sixers

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as the as the foil, because even though like catastrophe

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sort of was priced in for the Sixers, I think

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we went in like eyes open, acknowledging that, and whereas

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the Clippers, it's just like they just got surprisingly good

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performances that I didn't see coming from a lot of players,

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and like the whole felt like more than the sum

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of the parts, and all that was like just the

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evaluation was worse on the Clippers, whereas with the sixers.

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It's just like, yeah, everybody embiid got hurt, and like

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that was always on the table. We just didn't think

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that that was gonna be as big of an I

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don't know. Somehow the Clippers thing feels like a bigger miss.

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Speaker 1: We begin with the Chicago Bulls, and so I have

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their difference in their what they're on pace to exceed

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or miss their win totals by I'll start with the Bulls.

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They're they're going to outperform. They're over under differential by

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ten and a half wins. When I was doing my

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own personal win projections, I had them at twenty one.

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This is probably one. They've been more fun. They play fast,

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they shoot a lot of threes, modest. Buzzellis has exceed

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in my expectations as a rookie. They did trade zach Lavine,

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but I definitely missed in the sense of expecting that,

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Like I guess, I really believe that a team that

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has never torn it down when they should was going

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to tear it down early enough that they would just

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be absolutely awful. And so in hindsight, as for them

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to be one of the teams that I ripped wins

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away from is kind of like that just feels a

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little ignorant on my part.

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Speaker 3: Now, I mean this is a good example, though, Well

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there's just competing concerns, like, yeah, you shouldn't have, in hindsight,

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shouldn't have assumed that management would do the right thing,

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which is to say, like lose a whole bunch or

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like put a roster out there that's designed. I mean

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they did trade Levine, I mean that's part of it.

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But like Vucevic played way better than I think either

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of us expected. Kobe Wyatt about it, I mean we

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both like him, but yeah, like it's easy to look

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at this and be like, why didn't I just expect

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that they'd find a way to win, you know, somewhere

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between thirty seven and forty one games, Like why was

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that not my pick?

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Speaker 1: The next team that kind of falls into this bucket,

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So the Calves, who we were both high on, but

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they're going to outperform.

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Speaker 2: There over under.

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Speaker 1: By sixteen and a half way, we had them pretty

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comfortably in the top three of the East. But that

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meant like fifty two wins. They've now have an historic

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point differential I think some people have, and you can

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make the argument that they should be the favorites to

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come out of.

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Speaker 2: The Eastern Conference.

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Speaker 1: I don't view this as a capslock mix. This is

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why they're kind of an honorable mention. But this is

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just I don't know who even if you thought the

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Caps were a title contender, no one was predicting like

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this is their one hundred and first percentile outcomes.

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Speaker 3: Right, Well, this is one too where I mean, it

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was overwhelmingly common to see people picking the over right,

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Like everybody was like forty and a half, Like why

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aren't they winning fifty? And the reason they aren't winning

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fifty is because they're winning sixty five or whatever it is. Yeah,

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it was very easy to be optimistic about them just because, well,

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Garland will not have a jaw in multiple pieces, Mobily

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should be better, Kenny Atkinson will get the offense going.

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Like it's just this is an you said one hundred

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first percent as this is an extreme version of the

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best case scenario.

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Speaker 1: The next team that kind of falls in honorable mentions

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the Mavericks. We both believe they were gonna win more

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than fifty games.

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Speaker 2: They're not going to right now.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna end up missing by double digits on their

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over under this, I don't I we probably.

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Speaker 2: I guess you could have predicted this team dealing with

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injury issues.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna take responsibility for Nico Harrison and

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Patrick Dumont losing their minds. That's not Don't you put

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that evil on me, Ricky Bobbies. That's all I'm saying.

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Speaker 3: And also you got the little whiff of like Luca's

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in great shape preseason, and that turned out to not

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be true at all. But even if that trade had

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not happened, like him missing quite so much time, I

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don't think was something we really priced in. And then

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just the way the MAVs closed last year is like, well, yeah,

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of course the era, Like that's how good they'll be

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for the full season. Now they'll be a fifty plus

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win team just indefinitely. And I mean, yeah, the Harrison

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thing in the Luca trade gives us some cover, but

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like this was this was headed below that over under

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you know before that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a good point.

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Speaker 1: This team we both went under, I mean over on

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forty five and a half. With the Pelicans, there's been

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tanking shenanigans, like they've leaned into it, but they're gonna

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miss by about twenty three and a half wins off

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there over under. This is just can you are they

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entering the territory level? I just can't bet they're under

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ever again because of and why were we even doing.

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Speaker 2: It in the first place.

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Speaker 1: You mean they're over like they're over excuse me when

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their wagon is hitched to Zion. That's not what we

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both think the world of peaks Ion. It's just how

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many games of peaks Ion do you get per year

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at this rate?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I I you know, hard to find excuses, like

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even if you say, well, everybody else got hurt, like

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Murray down like out for the year, Trey Murphy starts her,

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it ends her. Herb Jones gets hurt pretty early on

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with that shoulder. I mean even then, it's like you

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just shouldn't You shouldn't assume Zion's gonna play fifty games

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like that's just that should be the default forever.

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Speaker 1: I'll take ownership like I couldn't have predicted the de

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Jontay Murray injury. And I loved that trade for them

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at the time. I don't know if I was expecting

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them to move brandon Ingram sooner. It ended up being

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Remember we were harping on their center position like E's

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mecI turned out to be just fine by the end

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of the year, him and Zion learning to play together.

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That number at forty five and a half, I must

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have did I like convince you were hoodwink into you

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picking me over Ford, because that's just not a number

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that Yeah, let me, I'm gonna double check for you

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to make sure that you had the over for that.

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Speaker 2: I know that over I might.

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Speaker 3: Have gone under. In my heart, I feel like I

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should have gone under.

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Speaker 2: And even if you didn't in your heart, no, you

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went over.

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Speaker 1: Grand Okay, so uh that's a miss on your I

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just in retrospect, like that's one, okay, Like we saw

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what the Pelicans can look like at their peak, but

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we've now have years worth of evidence that they're never

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gonna have enough bodies to.

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Speaker 2: Operate at their peak.

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Speaker 1: So ill that one's a bad one. This one our

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final kind of honorable men. Oh no, we have two more, Orlando.

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We both went over at forty seven and a half half.

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I don't make any apologies for this one specifically, just

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because I mean, I guess, eyes wide open, we knew

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that they didn't do anything to really juice the offense

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over the offseason. But they probably clear this over under

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if all of their best players don't end up missing

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what like at least half the season or more with injury.

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Speaker 3: Well, and I mean we were too high on kcp's

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potential impact, I think. But yeah, this is just I'm

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fine with this because this is just like you said it,

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like Franz or who Polo got hurt like five games

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in right, and then Franz goes down, and then Suggs

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is down and then back and then down and it's

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just out for the year, like getting injured. Yeah, yeah,

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I don't know. I don't know what else what else

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to say other than like, I mean, wouldn't you presumably

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if those three guys are, you know, play reasonably expected

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amount of games, they're they're gonna hit that over anyway.

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It's it really could just be the injuries.

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Speaker 1: Well, didn't it feel like there's a vacuum kind of

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for who's the third best team in the East? Had

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they aid healthy, you never would have trusted their offense

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at full strength unless they made a move.

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Speaker 2: They could have been it.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they could have been in that mix for sure, Like, yeah,

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fully healthy, they're in there with your New York's and

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indies and Milwaukee's I guess in Detroit like they're in

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that mix for sure.

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Speaker 1: This one not as easy to defend, I think because

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a lot of people in the competition went under knowing like, Okay.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna you know, one of my predictions was.

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Speaker 1: That the Big Three is gonna play at least one thousand.

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That's at least, I said, Grant, do you want to

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know how many minutes the Big Three ended up playing

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together this season?

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Speaker 3: Is it even triple digits?

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Speaker 1: It's two hundred and ninety four minutes. So I was

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twenty nine point four percent of the way to being correct.

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Speaker 3: Pretty good.

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Speaker 1: This is just you could say that they weren't gonna

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end up being one of the worst teams in the

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league in tanking to keep their draft pick, and you

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still reasonably could have said, hey, they're not going to

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hit the under here because I mean the over here,

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because they're going to conserve Joel Embiid and Paul George

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has never been like sort of this billboard for durability.

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Speaker 2: And so you did go to be fair.

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Speaker 1: You did go Your actual win projection, of course, was

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further away, but.

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Speaker 2: You went under for the Sixers.

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Speaker 1: I believe I went over, So that's a that's a

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bigger stain for me.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, I went under as well.

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Speaker 1: It's just I had them winning fifty one games and

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so like that's just a huge miss. So we didn't

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trust they're over under to be fair, But so I'm

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glad that we didn't.

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Speaker 2: I didn't put the over.

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of looking at this though and going should

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we have been more open to the the worst worst

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case scenario kind of actualizing Well.

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Speaker 3: If I think so, except like Embiid did play for

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Team USA, and and we covered a lot of those games,

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and he was like mostly real bad, right, and so

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it's like what inSpot what it's Well, I think it

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was more than he Okay, he played like Okay, he's

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gonna start the season like surely he'll you know, rest

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after the Olympics and then he'll he'll look better as

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opposed to like, no, he's gonna look the same and

293
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then worse and then be done like that. I guess

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it's a little it's not quite Zion level, but it's

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it's like, at this stage, we should have given a

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little more weight to like the sheer disaster potential. I

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mean we went under, but like I think this is

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the this is the negative first percentile outcome for the Sixers,

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like to compare it to the Cavs one hundred and

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first percentile, Like, this is as bad as it could go.

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And we should have viewed that as more likely than

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we did. I think.

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Speaker 1: And our off season grade for the mine was probably

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like an A plus plus plus, right think for sure,

305
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,120
said Daryl, And I'm sure mine was too. That Daryl

306
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Morey was your preseason Executive of the Year pick. So

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you talk about a season coming off the rails, they

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are so fascinating, talk about draft lottery stakes. That's going

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to be interesting to see what happens there. Now we're

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kind of getting into the okay, like this is the

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stuff that really deserves like some more discussion. The Detroit

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Pistons on pace to outperform there over under by nearly

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twenty victories. I need to take ownership of this, Like

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when you look at the actual wind projections, Okay, we

315
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were off, neither was having them winning close to forty

316
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five games. You did pick their over They were one

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of the teams that I ripped the under out from.

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This is just you name anything about it, Like it's

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if you would have even told me that Jay and

320
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,759
Ivy was gonna miss so much time, maybe I would

321
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:15,799
have felt like even more confident in my prediction. But

322
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just everything from and it's not even the Kig Cunningham.

323
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I think I've received some criticism for not having him

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as my motion improved player. I think I was just

325
00:14:24,519 --> 00:14:26,879
high enough on Cake Cunningham coming into this season, and

326
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so some of the defensive improvements, the scoring improvements for sure,

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like the way he's driving transition offense better than ever.

328
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Like I think I underestimated. Okay, you put spacing around

329
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,080
Kke Cunningham and this team might just be like I

330
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,159
spent too much time probably lampooting them for the Tim

331
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Hardaway Junior or Quentin Grimes trade when I should have

332
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kind of looked at it and said, like, there's real

333
00:14:46,919 --> 00:14:48,919
flour balance here in the half court that matters.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think a few is there.

335
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Speaker 3: I mean we should spend some time on them, because

336
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they're gonna like three x their win total from last year,

337
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pretty close to it. I think, like, so I did

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go over, but I I did look back, and so

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I had a piece about like giving last year's lottery teams, like,

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what are their chances of making the playoffs in twenty

341
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four to twenty five? And I had the Pistons below,

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So I thought it was more likely that the following

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00:15:15,799 --> 00:15:23,120
teams would make the playoffs than Detroit, Utah not looking good, Charlotte, Toronto,

344
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the Spurs, Houston, Memphis. So there's some decent ones in there,

345
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but some real bad ones. And I have a quote

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I'm gonna quote myself from like September. The Pistons could

347
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win twice as many games as they did a year

348
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ago and still come nowhere near the play in tournament.

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I did not consider winning three times as many games.

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That's important framing to keep in mind, as we acknowledged,

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Detroit probably will be a ton better than it was

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in twenty three twenty four. So I had it all there.

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I was like, they'll be better, they're not making the

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play in, so just really covering the bases of right

355
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and wrong. I mean, I think even I think you're

356
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not wrong in hindsight to have looked at like, okay,

357
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they put shooting around Cade, but like Hardaway and Beasley

358
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are just gonna be like defensive sieves. So you you

359
00:16:06,399 --> 00:16:10,080
like balance that out by playing a star Thompson and

360
00:16:10,399 --> 00:16:13,000
Ron holland Moore, and it's like, well, those guys are imperfect,

361
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so you're really just gonna have a bunch of like

362
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one way dudes around Caid and they'll win more games,

363
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but they won't be good. And that was just that

364
00:16:19,559 --> 00:16:23,120
was wrong. They're putting shooting around Caid. Sort of solved

365
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:27,080
it and Caid got better and and really I know

366
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,720
for a fact I didn't think JB. Bickerstaff was gonna

367
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,080
coax the level of defense that he did out of

368
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this group that was that might be as the biggest

369
00:16:34,279 --> 00:16:34,759
miss of all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's like you could cite whatever gate you want.

371
00:16:37,559 --> 00:16:39,279
Or so they're first since this top five, since this

372
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,320
their tenth in points a lot per possession on the season.

373
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I think you look at the personnel, especially when how

374
00:16:44,639 --> 00:16:47,840
I know we feel about Jayleen Duran as your base protector,

375
00:16:47,879 --> 00:16:50,200
like this stuff on the perimeter, there's been like a

376
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,799
ton more flashes they are but to be tented while

377
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,600
also winnowing down Isaiah Stewart's role compared to last year

378
00:16:56,639 --> 00:16:57,159
pretty much.

379
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Speaker 2: So that's just like just the heck of a job

380
00:17:00,799 --> 00:17:01,440
by the Pistons.

381
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:05,119
Speaker 1: And they become I think they now the hard part begains,

382
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:06,200
Like they're gonna get to the playoffs.

383
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 2: That'll be fun to see.

384
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 1: Like if they're gonna play the Knicks in the first round,

385
00:17:08,519 --> 00:17:10,200
I don't know that, Like the Knicks aren't a team

386
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,160
that if I'm any other team, and like they're not

387
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:12,720
scaring you.

388
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Speaker 2: So we'll see how they do.

389
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Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see, like what steps forward or

390
00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:18,680
what steps they'd make over the offseason. How are aggressive?

391
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,279
Were they gonna be versus how reserved? Because one of

392
00:17:21,319 --> 00:17:23,119
the most damaging things you could do is read too

393
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,160
much into success. But when you have, you know, some

394
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,759
guys like Jane n Ivy's extension eligible, Malik Beasley and

395
00:17:29,759 --> 00:17:31,680
Tomorroway Junior are gonna be free agents, Like there are

396
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,799
some just decisions that they have to make. And they're

397
00:17:33,799 --> 00:17:36,519
also not going to have a first round draft pick,

398
00:17:36,519 --> 00:17:38,640
which is like good, Like they were so good it's

399
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,000
conveying to Minnesota. Next team you want to take us

400
00:17:41,039 --> 00:17:42,039
through them, mister Hughes.

401
00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:44,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is the Blazers again, a team we

402
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,000
kind of talked up. But also so they're over under

403
00:17:48,039 --> 00:17:49,519
was twenty one and a half. They're gonna win in

404
00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:51,839
the mid thirties. Currently on pace for thirty six, so

405
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,799
that's a difference of like fourteen and a half wins.

406
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:55,119
Speaker 2: This was.

407
00:17:56,799 --> 00:17:59,839
Speaker 3: It's hard because, like I do think we from the jump,

408
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,680
like you've been in on Kamara since like he was

409
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,440
a Phoenix sun for like five seconds, and we loved

410
00:18:06,519 --> 00:18:10,359
Danny Avdia. I think we were both pretty skeptical of Clinging,

411
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:14,160
maybe you more so than me, and like Scoot was

412
00:18:14,519 --> 00:18:16,559
who knows. I think we were both kind of traumatized

413
00:18:16,559 --> 00:18:18,319
from being so high on him and him looking so

414
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,279
bad as a rookie. And then I think a lot

415
00:18:21,319 --> 00:18:24,640
of this, a lot of what skepticism there was was

416
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,720
really rooted in like the young guys are still young

417
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,200
and not helpful, like Scoot Sharp whatever Klingon probably won't

418
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,000
be good. And then the older guys like Jeremy Grant

419
00:18:34,039 --> 00:18:36,279
Simons are like, well they'll just trade those guys, so

420
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,200
like so that's how you get a win total, you know,

421
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,599
well below thirty something, which is what they're going to

422
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,759
hit at the same time we did. We did sort

423
00:18:44,799 --> 00:18:47,200
of like at the last minute. I remember this being

424
00:18:47,279 --> 00:18:49,839
late in the preseason, kind of going like, hey, are

425
00:18:49,839 --> 00:18:50,119
the poor.

426
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 4: Are the Blazers actually kind of good?

427
00:18:51,799 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 2: Like?

428
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:53,039
Speaker 4: Is there something there?

429
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 3: So a little credit there? But this was a pretty

430
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:56,039
big miss.

431
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,799
Speaker 1: I did have them as having an above average defense

432
00:18:58,839 --> 00:19:01,240
and that to take that aged quite well. But I

433
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,960
also said, and you kind of alluded to this, why

434
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,640
would you ever have drafted Donovan Kling in that high

435
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,160
I was like Zach EDI's the better pick, and I

436
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,559
even wouldn't have selected him there.

437
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:11,519
Speaker 2: I was wrong about clinging like there's.

438
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,519
Speaker 1: Some offensive issues to hammer out, but I think that's

439
00:19:13,519 --> 00:19:16,200
more about the spacing environment. I don't I even to

440
00:19:16,279 --> 00:19:19,680
his I don't really understand what Portland's guiding offensive principles

441
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,240
are at this point, Like they don't have a hallmark

442
00:19:22,279 --> 00:19:25,039
identify or that I would want to project forward as

443
00:19:25,079 --> 00:19:28,240
that team. I find the Chauncey billups of it all fascinating,

444
00:19:28,279 --> 00:19:29,599
like what are they Are they going to give him

445
00:19:29,599 --> 00:19:32,759
an extension like they did with GM Joe Cronin. But

446
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,319
like the base of that, the Denny Avia trade I

447
00:19:35,319 --> 00:19:37,319
think is, even with the slow start, has panned out

448
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,839
way better than ever. The stuff you quibble over, should

449
00:19:39,839 --> 00:19:41,880
they have moved some of these guys earlier? Should they

450
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,680
have just taken a bath and gotten rid of Jeremy

451
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,480
Grant at the deadline. I don't know, but for people

452
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,440
who I guess are and like, I understand the feeling

453
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,400
because it's they're in this weird space where they still

454
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:52,960
I don't think you can point to anyone on this

455
00:19:53,039 --> 00:19:56,400
team and guarantee that they're just gonna be the face

456
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,640
of because Denny Avi is great, he's not good enough

457
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,079
to be that guy. Henderson or Shaydon Sharp still feel

458
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:03,680
like they have the best chance of doing it. But

459
00:20:04,079 --> 00:20:06,119
the improvement you've seen from Scoot this year, like you

460
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:07,920
don't get to sit there and say that he's air

461
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,079
tight like that. So it's it's still this bizarre space.

462
00:20:11,319 --> 00:20:13,240
But I actually don't have a problem that they weren't

463
00:20:13,319 --> 00:20:16,759
one of the most flagrant tankers this year because the

464
00:20:16,759 --> 00:20:19,680
defensive success and some the brighter moments, the wins that

465
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:24,039
they cobbled together, it was driven predominantly by guys who

466
00:20:24,079 --> 00:20:26,400
matter to their future. It's not like over the lineup

467
00:20:26,559 --> 00:20:30,319
was Jeremy Grant, Denny Avvia DeAndre Ayton. They went double

468
00:20:30,319 --> 00:20:32,240
big with Robert Williams a third or something. It was like, no,

469
00:20:32,319 --> 00:20:34,680
like the young guys, the big picture guys played a

470
00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:36,759
huge part in what the Blazers have done this year.

471
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be fascinated to see what they're like twenty five,

472
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,960
twenty six over under gets said at and like what

473
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,160
the sort of vibe is on Portland because you could

474
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,799
see them being a team that everybody's like, like they're

475
00:20:47,839 --> 00:20:50,000
the here they come kind of team. I could see

476
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,119
that being the narrative going into next year. Aren't you

477
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:53,440
know what? I might buy it?

478
00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 2: I might buy it?

479
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,319
Speaker 1: But is also does that have to do with a

480
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,160
dearth of optionality? Because who's the who's the other option?

481
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 3: You know, there's gonna be some that emmerger like or

482
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,039
let everybody's gonna be like, oh, watch for the Orlando

483
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,039
bounce back. That that'd be a good pot we should

484
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,960
we should like try to pre call the preseason narratives.

485
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,279
Maybe maybe like not right now, but at some point.

486
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, a book market.

487
00:21:14,599 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 1: I guess the Spurs would fall into that category then too,

488
00:21:17,079 --> 00:21:19,039
like following the they were there this year, but then

489
00:21:19,039 --> 00:21:21,079
when we get shut down they trade for Fox, So yeah,

490
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,720
good point there our next.

491
00:21:22,599 --> 00:21:24,279
Speaker 2: All right, we missed on this team.

492
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:28,039
Speaker 1: So the Rockets I had their under when they were

493
00:21:28,079 --> 00:21:31,119
at forty one and a half. I believe I just

494
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,279
thought that the offense was not gonna do enough to

495
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,000
or they were at forty three and a half. Excuse me,

496
00:21:35,279 --> 00:21:36,880
and I had them at forty three wins. I thought

497
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,559
they were gonna be better. I liked pretty much everyone

498
00:21:39,559 --> 00:21:42,079
on their roster. I was never a jail and green guy,

499
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:43,640
and I just didn't think the offense was gonna have

500
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,279
enough pizazz to hang.

501
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 2: Tight in the Western Conference.

502
00:21:47,079 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 1: I mean, they might just be the second best team

503
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,000
in the West, and the closure they're closer.

504
00:21:51,599 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: To fifty five wins than they are to forty three.

505
00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:58,799
Speaker 1: So like this is just you talk about a team

506
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,799
that I really think announced was ahead of schedule. It

507
00:22:01,839 --> 00:22:04,039
was them, And in a way it puts more pressure

508
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,920
on them because they have all these moving parts of extensions.

509
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,559
Speaker 2: They've paid some guys, they have assets.

510
00:22:09,559 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: Should they go out and get Superstar X or Superstar Wide?

511
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,759
Speaker 2: Do they let this marinate?

512
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 1: The stakes are high for them in the playoffs in

513
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,039
a good way, because I think it informs a lot

514
00:22:18,079 --> 00:22:20,039
of what they'll do over the offseason. But I never

515
00:22:20,599 --> 00:22:22,279
if you would have given me a range and said

516
00:22:22,559 --> 00:22:24,720
are they more likely to miss if us me if

517
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,279
they are they more likely to miss the plan or

518
00:22:26,279 --> 00:22:28,680
finish with a top three seed in the West. I

519
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,160
would have picked that they would have missed a plan.

520
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 4: Yeah.

521
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they're a good example of you know,

522
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:39,839
it's really easy to fixate, especially with a young team,

523
00:22:40,039 --> 00:22:42,720
on like what they can't do or what we don't

524
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:44,759
think they're going to be able to do well, which

525
00:22:44,839 --> 00:22:49,400
like which was basically offense, and that's kind of still true, right, Like,

526
00:22:49,519 --> 00:22:52,000
if there is an issue with the Rockets, it's definitely

527
00:22:52,559 --> 00:22:55,000
late game offense in particular, and just like like how

528
00:22:55,039 --> 00:22:57,079
are they going to create reliably good shots? Like that's

529
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,599
still a thing. But like if you do that or

530
00:23:00,599 --> 00:23:04,240
if you stay too much with within that mindset, what

531
00:23:04,319 --> 00:23:06,160
you overlook is like, okay, but what might they be

532
00:23:06,279 --> 00:23:08,480
great at? And it's like, well, they have a ton

533
00:23:08,519 --> 00:23:11,559
of like really interesting defensive personnel. Maybe they'll just be

534
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,720
a top five defense or like and now, and so

535
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,799
you can be a middling offense and you're gonna win

536
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,519
a lot of games that way. Like so I think

537
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,400
I think it was just that fact that was a miscalculation.

538
00:23:22,599 --> 00:23:25,880
And also I definitely spend a lot of time kind

539
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,400
of harping on there they're so they've got such a runway,

540
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,279
like this is a fact finding season. They got to

541
00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:36,000
figure out, like which combos of all their young guys

542
00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:39,200
work well together, like Jabari Smith and Okay Thompson, how

543
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,720
does that look? And like can Thompson play with with

544
00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:44,160
Cam Whitmore, And like where does Shepherd fit into all that?

545
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,200
We could talk about him now or later if you want,

546
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:51,559
but like it it some So I still like I

547
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,799
understand why we weren't high enough on them because some

548
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:56,920
of the things that we talked about like are still

549
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,519
actually issues. I think we just missed on like what

550
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,279
this team could actually be extremely good at and like

551
00:24:03,319 --> 00:24:05,640
how much that would matter and offset some of the

552
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,079
questions and weaknesses.

553
00:24:07,599 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the I would assume that no one,

554
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,759
even like Rockets fans, weren't having them contending for second

555
00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:14,519
in the West this year. I actually think the bigger

556
00:24:14,519 --> 00:24:16,519
miss would be if they fare so well in the

557
00:24:16,519 --> 00:24:19,519
playoffs with excuse me, oh, I mean, like let's say

558
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:21,640
Albert Shangun and the Steven Adam lineup which has been

559
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:23,680
destroying worlds. Oh, you play that in the playoffs and

560
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,079
it's we're gonna win with transition defense. Second chance opportunities

561
00:24:27,079 --> 00:24:29,880
and just enough kind of creation from Shang Gun and

562
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,599
van Fleet and Jail and Green. The bigger miss would

563
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,839
be they make a conference finals round and don't need

564
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,559
to make that consolidation trade that we're saying, No, you

565
00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:39,680
don't need to give up everything, but you need like

566
00:24:39,759 --> 00:24:42,359
a creator or a floor spacer on this team. And

567
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,200
if you're not where, there's gonna be more rocket stuff

568
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:45,960
a little bit later, so stay tuned for that. But

569
00:24:46,319 --> 00:24:48,160
if it's not gonna be Read Shepherd, if you're not

570
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,000
gonna because it almost makes it harder to like invest

571
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,079
in the development of Read Shepherd if you're already this

572
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,880
good because you don't have the stomach for the growing

573
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,640
pains as much, that'll end up being the bigger miss.

574
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,599
But I like hot tip to them for being this

575
00:25:01,759 --> 00:25:02,720
far ahead of schedule.

576
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 3: Don't before we move on. Don't you think though, that

577
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,000
the like consensus on them as a playoff team is

578
00:25:10,039 --> 00:25:14,039
still like pretty broad skepticism. Like I that's just the

579
00:25:14,079 --> 00:25:16,480
feeling I get. Is like not not in the sense

580
00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:20,359
of like everybody's hoping, nobody's afraid of the rockets. It's like, no,

581
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,920
they have some like structural stuff that like I think

582
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,480
it's fair to be concerned about playoff wise, but we

583
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,200
we've we've been real wrong about the Rockets, right.

584
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think for sure they're kind of just like

585
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,519
I mean, Memphis still has that skepticism, but they're sure

586
00:25:34,559 --> 00:25:36,640
to Memphis and where it's they do a lot of this.

587
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,200
They do it differently, have different personnel, but like their

588
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:44,039
core flaw half court offense, spacing in the half court,

589
00:25:44,279 --> 00:25:44,920
they're the same.

590
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: And that I do feel like.

591
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 1: Those are the the functional foibles that we might glom

592
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,160
onto ahead of the post, like for a lot of

593
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,960
teams if that's where they're at. So I think that

594
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,160
just and then also there's I know you and I

595
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,920
don't necessarily subscribe too much value or like too much

596
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,759
like brain power to this, but they haven't done it yet,

597
00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:05,279
Like like Fred van Fleet championship guy. They do have

598
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,680
Jeff Green on the bench here, but it's what do

599
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,480
these younger guys look like in a postseason setting? And

600
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:14,440
that's I think. Yeah, curiosity, for sure, I think is fair.

601
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,680
But look, with the way this team is treading, maybe

602
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,279
they just make a conference finals ride and we're just

603
00:26:18,279 --> 00:26:18,839
sitting here.

604
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 3: Like all right, like wrong again, who do we have

605
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,680
up next. This is the Clippers. This I know, for

606
00:26:25,839 --> 00:26:29,359
me was just in a good way, I guess, because

607
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,559
it's always better to be pleasantly surprised. I just didn't

608
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,680
in a million years, I didn't think, one, you have

609
00:26:35,759 --> 00:26:39,119
the Kawhi health stuff, right, which really was like for

610
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,640
a lot of the year as expected, where he missed

611
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,839
time and didn't look like himself for I mean the

612
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,440
majority of this season, I was hyper skeptical that an

613
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,599
offense with like James Harden and then like some guys

614
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,920
that are just you know, like other than Norm Powell,

615
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,599
which this is very much related, like where's the offense

616
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,680
coming from? I just didn't trust you Harden to be

617
00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:03,480
like a high use, high leverage like usage high leverage

618
00:27:03,519 --> 00:27:06,440
on ball driver of offense. And honestly, like even he

619
00:27:06,519 --> 00:27:08,599
wasn't great at that, it was just like he.

620
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 4: Was good enough.

621
00:27:09,759 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 3: And then the defense, which so the Powell leap unforeseeable

622
00:27:13,519 --> 00:27:17,440
like just a crazy like mid career jump. And then

623
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,519
Zubats didn't give Zubots enough credit as like, all right,

624
00:27:20,559 --> 00:27:22,640
this guy's one of the best defensive players in the league,

625
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,200
full stop, and he can be part of an awesome

626
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,920
defense if you surround him with Chris Dunn and like

627
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,799
these other un heralded defensive type guys did not see

628
00:27:32,279 --> 00:27:34,160
anything close to this from them.

629
00:27:34,759 --> 00:27:38,839
Speaker 1: I think pretty much everything they've done it's just what

630
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,440
I said, like Ben Simmons, like to Ben Simmons as.

631
00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 2: You're big, basically like, oh, those are just working.

632
00:27:43,839 --> 00:27:47,839
Speaker 1: So there's just like nothing they've tried, and we harped

633
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,680
a lot on Ah, you just let Paul George leave

634
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,759
for nothing, and like even that looks like it aged

635
00:27:51,799 --> 00:27:53,599
well for them. They go and it's well, they can't

636
00:27:53,599 --> 00:27:55,440
really do anything at the trade deadline. They're limited in

637
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:56,839
assets and how much do you want to commit to

638
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,680
this team? And it's, oh no, you finagle the way

639
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,440
to get bo Dun Bogdonovitch, who is having a renaissance.

640
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 2: And I'm like, both inside and beyond the arc, there's

641
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,319
the Kawhi Leonard of it all.

642
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: You can't trust that he will be healthy when it matters.

643
00:28:08,319 --> 00:28:10,920
But at the same time, you look at the numbers

644
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,519
when him and James Harden and Zubats and power on

645
00:28:13,559 --> 00:28:14,759
the court together and they're.

646
00:28:14,599 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: Just they're frying teams.

647
00:28:16,039 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it makes me wonder if Kauhi is healthy

648
00:28:20,799 --> 00:28:23,279
this is absolutely a team they could make the conference finals,

649
00:28:23,319 --> 00:28:24,839
like there would they be a team if if they're

650
00:28:24,839 --> 00:28:27,440
fully healthy, Like, could you see them giving okayc like

651
00:28:27,519 --> 00:28:29,359
being one of the better matchups for okay See. Just

652
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,799
given the way their their defensive versatility in particular, makes

653
00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:34,359
me think that they would be one of the tougher

654
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,720
pulls for okay See. Again the caveat and they need

655
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:38,559
to be at full strength.

656
00:28:38,799 --> 00:28:41,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just make yeah, I mean Kawhi and like

657
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,319
Harden has seen, you know, more than anyone on Okay

658
00:28:44,519 --> 00:28:47,359
okay See has seen like and Harden's playoff track record

659
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:52,759
is extremely checkered, but like it just I just feel

660
00:28:52,799 --> 00:28:56,359
like uncomfortable speculating in any way about the Clippers now

661
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,920
because I was so off, Like I just this is

662
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:00,839
my I don't know if it's my biggest miss over

663
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,640
under if it's I just I was so sure that

664
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:07,319
the Clippers were gonna be bad that, like, I just

665
00:29:07,359 --> 00:29:12,359
have no sense of this team pretty pretty obviously, yeah,

666
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,720
I think they would be I'm trying to think of

667
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,759
what would be the bigger Maybe the Pistons would be

668
00:29:16,759 --> 00:29:19,160
like just biggest, forget about the numbers of it all.

669
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,920
But coming into the season, my perception of them. I

670
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,079
think the Clippers actually might be my biggest miss of

671
00:29:24,119 --> 00:29:25,480
the year. I think their mine.

672
00:29:25,559 --> 00:29:27,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, our next team up, I will say.

673
00:29:27,839 --> 00:29:30,079
Speaker 1: Going through the over unders on the Phoenix Suns from

674
00:29:30,119 --> 00:29:34,039
our discord from our subscribers, there were very few people

675
00:29:34,119 --> 00:29:38,000
bet or picked excuse me, the Suns under which is

676
00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:40,119
we saw forties. I know you probably thought I saw

677
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,000
forty seven and a half. I'm like, yeah, they're easily

678
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,839
gonna clear that, Like we're just reading too much into

679
00:29:44,839 --> 00:29:46,720
the stuff that happened last season. Things will be ironed out.

680
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,559
Mike Budenholzer is gonna come in and have an impact.

681
00:29:48,559 --> 00:29:50,519
Brian Donne I had him as a first team All

682
00:29:50,599 --> 00:29:54,160
rookie prediction. Not completely insane, but he never like carved

683
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,920
out the role necessary to be in the running for

684
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,200
that they're on pace to win like thirty six, he's

685
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,359
having thirty eight games whatever. I this is just should

686
00:30:04,359 --> 00:30:06,440
we have seen Like should we have.

687
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 2: Seen this coming?

688
00:30:08,599 --> 00:30:08,759
Speaker 3: No?

689
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:09,599
Speaker 4: Because I didn't.

690
00:30:09,839 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 3: Even though that forty seven and a half is like

691
00:30:12,119 --> 00:30:14,960
doesn't As I'm looking at it now, it's like, yeah, yeah,

692
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,079
why wouldn't you go over that? Like that's not a

693
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,759
high number, Like that what is it? You probably before

694
00:30:19,799 --> 00:30:21,519
the season, you're like, what is that? Like seventh in

695
00:30:21,559 --> 00:30:25,240
the West or something, maybe maybe even lower. I have

696
00:30:25,279 --> 00:30:29,519
a quote for that one. It's related unless unless we're

697
00:30:29,559 --> 00:30:32,440
saving it for later. It's it's it's kind of Bodenholzer

698
00:30:32,519 --> 00:30:35,359
specific and just is so wrong that I feel like

699
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,279
I have to lay it out now Here we go,

700
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,839
he meaning coach Bud will get the Suns organized and

701
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,920
optimally deployed on both ends, improving their nights and night performance,

702
00:30:46,039 --> 00:30:48,240
just like he did with Milwaukee and Atlanta before that.

703
00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:51,119
Considering the Suns made talent upgrades, right Tyas Jones?

704
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 4: Who else did they get?

705
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,799
Speaker 3: They got somebody else that we were like, okay, we've

706
00:30:54,839 --> 00:30:58,480
shored that up. I can't remember. Now they've made talent

707
00:30:58,559 --> 00:31:01,640
upgrades and finished ninth and twelve an offensive defensive efficiency

708
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,799
last year. They could hit the playoffs with a legitimate

709
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:09,319
championship profile and then cut to like Bud just, I

710
00:31:09,319 --> 00:31:11,079
don't know, Like this team's offense is one of the

711
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,480
least watchable in the league, and I will say it

712
00:31:13,519 --> 00:31:19,440
is not being optimally deployed, so pretty pretty rough and

713
00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:25,039
really like guys have missed time. But that's not the

714
00:31:25,119 --> 00:31:29,680
excuse that that isn't we didn't miss this because of that, Like,

715
00:31:29,799 --> 00:31:33,720
it's really just when even when the Suns were like

716
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,119
close to whole, they just weren't remotely what we thought

717
00:31:37,119 --> 00:31:38,759
they would be on either end of the floor.

718
00:31:39,599 --> 00:31:42,839
Speaker 2: I will also say, yeah, I echo all of that.

719
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:43,920
I will also.

720
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: Say this is sort of the one where it was

721
00:31:46,519 --> 00:31:50,920
I've never seen people try harder to read into a

722
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,279
four game winning streak so late, and this is like,

723
00:31:53,559 --> 00:31:55,720
have the Suns turned the corner?

724
00:31:56,079 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: It's like, no, they they they have not, Like what

725
00:31:59,319 --> 00:32:02,039
do we have sixty something plus games of evidence?

726
00:32:02,079 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: And I think we've talked about the vibes in general

727
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,920
for these Kevin Durant teams as he's been there longer.

728
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,480
I don't think I ever could have predicted them being

729
00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:12,480
this bad. I think we knew that there might be

730
00:32:12,519 --> 00:32:16,599
some toxic Bradley Beal speculation where they want to get

731
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,200
rid of him and he won't wave his no trade clause,

732
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,839
but to the point where they were proactively shopping Durant,

733
00:32:22,839 --> 00:32:25,799
which you typically you compliment teams for, but for them,

734
00:32:25,799 --> 00:32:27,799
it's just sort of, well, what is the endgame here?

735
00:32:27,799 --> 00:32:30,920
If you're shopping Kevin Durant not telling him, and now

736
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,359
that we have to ask because I never even I

737
00:32:33,359 --> 00:32:35,799
would have predicted. I don't know how many things I

738
00:32:35,839 --> 00:32:38,200
would have predicted before this, But would you even guarantee

739
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,519
that everything you just wrote about Mike Budenholzer and now

740
00:32:41,519 --> 00:32:43,799
we can't even guarantee that he'll be in Phoenix next season?

741
00:32:43,839 --> 00:32:46,319
Speaker 3: I feel I know, Yeah, It's that seemed to me

742
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,240
like such low hanging fruit of like, well, you say

743
00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:51,359
what you want about him as a playoff coach, but

744
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,359
like he gets the most out of his teams during

745
00:32:53,359 --> 00:32:55,519
the year, and he gets some high seeds and then

746
00:32:55,519 --> 00:32:58,960
they get upset, and it's like that's it. You have

747
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,079
to question everything about this team all right.

748
00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:03,240
Speaker 1: Now we're gonna get into some of our biggest misses

749
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,720
with more of the specific positions, not just the overall

750
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,759
impressions of the team, although we're gonna begin with overall

751
00:33:08,759 --> 00:33:11,559
impressions of the Brooklyn Nets. From me, I predicted the

752
00:33:11,599 --> 00:33:15,000
Nets will have the NBA's worst record. I don't feel

753
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,839
bad about it because they have a two year window

754
00:33:17,839 --> 00:33:19,839
in which they could tank before they don't control their

755
00:33:19,839 --> 00:33:23,880
own first round picks. Again, I just assumed that even

756
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,119
with the personnel when you have Shreoter, Doring, Finney Smith,

757
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,240
Cam Johnson, Nicholas Claxton. If they were too good, they

758
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,759
would make moves early enough to be bad enough. And

759
00:33:32,839 --> 00:33:34,839
they did make moves early enough, but they were just

760
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,799
too good out the gate. And even after moving Dennis Schreuder,

761
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,599
even after moving Doring Phinney Smith, this team was just

762
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,119
still too competitive. On certain nights it was, oh well,

763
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,880
once the offensive, you know, dynamism is gone. It's like,

764
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,920
we're just gonna become like frenetic defensive team. Not that

765
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,680
they were ever good, and they've tanked enough to where

766
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,480
they have a chance. I think to finish they're gonna

767
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,799
be like what sixth in the lottery order. But for them,

768
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,000
I was just certain that this, you know, people made

769
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,720
a mockery of what the rap have done in the

770
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,640
fourth quarters, with the Jazz have done for a good

771
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,240
part of this season. I just assume that the Nets

772
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,800
were gonna be doing that out the gate, and instead

773
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,920
they're gonna wind up with the sixth or seventh best

774
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,199
lottery odds, which, you know, not the end of the world.

775
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:15,920
But for them, when you have this two year winter,

776
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,800
which to tech, I just assumed they were gonna be

777
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,159
so brazenly bad and they were not.

778
00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of hope they win the lottery because

779
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,920
they like they did everything the process was right, Like

780
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,039
they the second they got that pick back, you have

781
00:34:31,119 --> 00:34:33,599
nothing to apologize for with this take, because like the

782
00:34:33,639 --> 00:34:36,880
talent that was there and the incentives all aligned towards them.

783
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,400
Just be like, why wouldn't they be just as bad

784
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,800
as possible? And like it's a good example of sometimes

785
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,719
like the players on the floor and the coach just

786
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,039
make it so you can only be so bad and

787
00:34:48,079 --> 00:34:50,400
like this is Jordy Fernandez's Coach of the Year case

788
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:54,800
that we're basically discussing like the reverse side of right now, Yeah,

789
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,000
they they should have been terrible, and they just played

790
00:34:58,039 --> 00:35:00,519
too hard and were like too well coached, and they

791
00:35:00,599 --> 00:35:03,840
tried they traded an intruder in December, like that's you know,

792
00:35:04,119 --> 00:35:06,119
they really did what they needed to do and it

793
00:35:06,159 --> 00:35:08,400
didn't and it didn't matter in a in a good way.

794
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,440
I think, like this is I hope again, I hope

795
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,880
they win the lottery just because they tried to do

796
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,039
it right and they just sort of had too good

797
00:35:16,039 --> 00:35:18,239
of a culture to be abjectly horrible.

798
00:35:18,639 --> 00:35:21,119
Speaker 1: Well, so I guess for me this is an ethical

799
00:35:21,159 --> 00:35:24,199
miss is what you're saying. Yes, But for them, if

800
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,320
you set out to be that bad and you end

801
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,199
up being better than expected, is that a silver lining?

802
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: Or is it okay? Well you weren't you weren't.

803
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 1: It's it's kind of circa Utah Jazz after trading Donovan

804
00:35:34,519 --> 00:35:36,039
Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.

805
00:35:36,159 --> 00:35:39,559
Speaker 3: It's it's different than the jazz though, and it feels

806
00:35:39,559 --> 00:35:42,280
different than the jazz those two years because like or

807
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,760
does doesn't it? It feels different to me because like

808
00:35:45,079 --> 00:35:47,880
they really did strip down like as much as they could,

809
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,280
and then they like through effort, like couldn't be bad enough,

810
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,039
whereas the jazz just like didn't pull the trigger on

811
00:35:54,159 --> 00:35:56,679
trades quickly enough. And I don't know if that that

812
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,159
feels sort of distinct.

813
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 1: It's but it feels, doesn't It feel like, I mean,

814
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,280
Utah is still kind of searching for his cornerstone. But

815
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:05,400
it's the same thing with the nets to where and

816
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,039
they don't necessarily have all those fallback picks.

817
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,039
Speaker 2: That they do have some, but they don't have a ton.

818
00:36:10,079 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 1: And it more specifically, the jazz have all their own

819
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,159
and the Brooklyn Nets do not after so if they

820
00:36:16,199 --> 00:36:18,960
win the lottery, it would be kind of like reinforcing. Okay,

821
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,199
like these flattened lottery odds work and something like this happens.

822
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:26,320
It doesn't torment your long term vision. Yeah, what's your

823
00:36:26,639 --> 00:36:28,199
let's go to let's go to your miss grant.

824
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 4: Yeah.

825
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 3: So I basically made the case more than once that

826
00:36:33,039 --> 00:36:37,039
like that. JJ Reddick was like, dude, this is an

827
00:36:37,079 --> 00:36:40,000
impossible position for him, like set set up, like not

828
00:36:40,119 --> 00:36:43,480
purposely set up to fail. But it's like this scenario

829
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,880
where you've never coached before. You are going to the Lakers.

830
00:36:48,119 --> 00:36:51,480
The Lakers should not be very good because Lebron James

831
00:36:51,519 --> 00:36:55,039
and Anthony Davis won't both play seventy plus games. The scrutiny,

832
00:36:55,199 --> 00:36:58,679
the like, the whole thing. It was just like this is, yeah, yeah,

833
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,840
you take the job because there's only thirty of them

834
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,559
and this is the Lakers, Like of course, like you're

835
00:37:02,599 --> 00:37:05,000
gonna say no when they ask you to come coach

836
00:37:05,039 --> 00:37:07,719
this team, like of course not. But I just thought

837
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,440
like it's not not necessarily. I don't know how I

838
00:37:11,519 --> 00:37:14,159
divvy it up, like percentage wise, some percentage of like

839
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:15,840
I don't know if he's gonna be a good coach

840
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,159
or not because how could you? And the bigger percentage

841
00:37:19,199 --> 00:37:22,199
being like this is an impossible situation. And now we're

842
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,360
we're at the end of the year, and it's like, one,

843
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,719
pretty sure he's a really good coach, Like it certainly

844
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:31,280
looks that way the way he got this roster to defend.

845
00:37:31,639 --> 00:37:34,119
And then like the lifeline of Okay, Luca's here now,

846
00:37:34,199 --> 00:37:36,280
so it's not just like we're playing out the string

847
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:40,079
with Lebron and we're beholden to his and Anthony Davis's health.

848
00:37:40,199 --> 00:37:42,320
Now you're beholding to Luca's health and conditioning. But like

849
00:37:42,559 --> 00:37:45,360
that's just a better spot to be in, so dead

850
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,000
wrong about that, And and now like it's just I

851
00:37:48,159 --> 00:37:50,679
just assume the Lakers are going to be well coached

852
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,000
and like make do smart stuff as long as he's there,

853
00:37:54,039 --> 00:37:56,360
which is a total one to eighty from like the

854
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,840
whole like throw your hands up, Like I don't know

855
00:37:59,199 --> 00:38:00,960
what he's going to be able to do.

856
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 2: Do you think it makes it?

857
00:38:02,159 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 1: This is like it's like kind of a pleasure. I

858
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,559
don't like if I think teams are gonna be bad

859
00:38:05,559 --> 00:38:07,840
and they're good. I like accepting we've kind of already

860
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,559
not over. I could accept that, does it make it

861
00:38:10,639 --> 00:38:13,199
like this makes your miss more egregious, but maybe feel

862
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,719
you feel even better about it that this isn't really

863
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,559
about the Luca doctor straight at all, because the Lakers

864
00:38:18,599 --> 00:38:20,719
were and there's still a ton of idols that when

865
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,639
you look at it, it's like, no, like they're not

866
00:38:22,679 --> 00:38:24,119
supposed to be this good.

867
00:38:24,159 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 2: And yet at some point when you go.

868
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: Through an eighty something game sample size through all the

869
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,440
stuff that happens, including by the way, I'm gonna bring

870
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:32,880
this up now, I don't know where to bring it up.

871
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:33,559
Speaker 2: No one's brought it up.

872
00:38:33,599 --> 00:38:36,320
Speaker 1: Do you remember Lebron was out with his injury, but

873
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,840
then we all of a sudden got the relaunch of

874
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,039
the Mind the Game podcast. I'm not convinced that it

875
00:38:42,079 --> 00:38:44,079
wasn't just about getting rest. There was that he needed to,

876
00:38:44,519 --> 00:38:47,119
you know, start recording those Mind the Game episodes that

877
00:38:47,159 --> 00:38:48,519
they were ready in time for their debut.

878
00:38:48,559 --> 00:38:52,119
Speaker 2: That is my conspiracy theory. Lebron James DNP podcasting.

879
00:38:54,039 --> 00:38:57,199
Speaker 3: That's Paul George's corner, stay off it. No, I like

880
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,239
I I definitely wasn't like I hope it doesn't seem

881
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,280
like I was rooting for Reddick to fail because like

882
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,039
that's a dumb hire. Why like there's better coaches out there.

883
00:39:06,039 --> 00:39:07,639
Why would you just pick the guy that's got a

884
00:39:07,639 --> 00:39:10,119
podcast and sounds admittedly smart on it?

885
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 2: Like I just was like driving yourself. Why aren't you sure? Exactly?

886
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:15,159
I was.

887
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 3: I was almost like I didn't feel bad for him,

888
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,800
but I was like I just felt like nervous about like, man,

889
00:39:23,039 --> 00:39:24,719
I don't know if this was the right decision, Like

890
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,039
what you're walking into is gonna be brutal, And I was.

891
00:39:27,039 --> 00:39:29,599
Speaker 1: Just I remember the the part of the exact conversation

892
00:39:29,679 --> 00:39:33,440
we had was why was just I you were gonna

893
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,000
put like if you wanted to coach, Like, why are

894
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,119
you subjecting yourself to this situation to where if it

895
00:39:37,159 --> 00:39:37,599
goes wrong?

896
00:39:37,679 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 2: Do you just not get another coaching opportunity?

897
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,119
Speaker 3: Right? Don't be Steve Nash where it's like everybody thinks

898
00:39:43,159 --> 00:39:45,280
you're real smart, you take the wrong job, and it's

899
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,320
just like you're not gonna coach again, whether you will

900
00:39:47,639 --> 00:39:47,840
or not.

901
00:39:48,199 --> 00:39:51,159
Speaker 2: Steve Nash has his own podcast now though, so he will.

902
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 3: And so he'll be the Lakers next coach. If if

903
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,639
mind the game is any indication.

904
00:39:55,519 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this one I know More is gonna troll

905
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,880
me forward. I'm pretty sure you will too. LaMelo Ball

906
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,559
will make an All NBA team. That was me one

907
00:40:04,599 --> 00:40:06,920
week into the season, so it wasn't a preseason take.

908
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,440
So I'm guilty of being super prisoner of the moment, which.

909
00:40:10,199 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 2: Is arguably worse.

910
00:40:11,519 --> 00:40:14,119
Speaker 1: Look, even if he doesn't get injured, even if the

911
00:40:14,119 --> 00:40:16,480
rest of the Hornets don't get injured, he's probably not

912
00:40:16,599 --> 00:40:20,440
tracking towards there because one I do think consensus is

913
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,400
too low on what LaMelo could be and what he

914
00:40:22,599 --> 00:40:25,119
was doing before the Hornets fell apart. But like the

915
00:40:25,199 --> 00:40:27,519
defense hasn't gotten any better. Part of the stuff I

916
00:40:27,559 --> 00:40:29,679
was intrigued by was like the drives are more physical.

917
00:40:29,679 --> 00:40:32,360
The room pressure was there that petered out a little bit.

918
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,039
I absolutely consider him a transcendent offensive talent. I will

919
00:40:36,159 --> 00:40:38,119
if I was running a team and he appears on

920
00:40:38,159 --> 00:40:40,159
the chopping block, I would give up a ton to

921
00:40:40,159 --> 00:40:42,039
get him. If I'm the Hornets, I'm not moving him

922
00:40:42,079 --> 00:40:44,079
because I think that once you start to get real

923
00:40:44,119 --> 00:40:45,719
talent in place, he's actually pretty.

924
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 2: Easy to build a round.

925
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: But implying that he was about to be one of

926
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,880
the fifteen most valuable offensive players, of the twenty four

927
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,880
to twenty five NBA campaign, knowing at fundamentally that he's

928
00:40:57,960 --> 00:40:59,800
just never been available enough to qualify.

929
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 4: You were that was your biggest mistake?

930
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 3: Is like, there are a lot of ways to be

931
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:05,000
wrong about an All NBA prediction.

932
00:41:05,119 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 1: Well, I was wrong in almost every which way because

933
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,000
then his efficiency. So if LaMelo Ball played sixty seven

934
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:11,880
games with his current like, no, he would not have

935
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,000
received enough All NBA votes. So this is a miss.

936
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,519
I wear it sheepishly, but I still think that LaMelo

937
00:41:18,559 --> 00:41:20,360
Ball will make an All NBA team.

938
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 3: I'm not going to troll you. You got to stick

939
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,079
with your guys. You know you're a LaMelo guy, and

940
00:41:26,119 --> 00:41:28,760
you shouldn't apologize for it. It's not a ridiculous take.

941
00:41:29,559 --> 00:41:32,800
When you double down on it next preseason, I may

942
00:41:33,039 --> 00:41:35,440
I may bring this up and just flag it as

943
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,960
a cautionary note and say you sure you sure you

944
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,639
want to say LaMelo is going to finish third in

945
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:40,719
MVP this year.

946
00:41:42,119 --> 00:41:46,199
Speaker 1: Or I have him on all defense. Your next miss.

947
00:41:46,199 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: I think this is.

948
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,519
Speaker 1: One that everyone who listens to this podcast could have

949
00:41:49,599 --> 00:41:52,000
predicted from you.

950
00:41:52,039 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, you could have predicted that I was wrong

951
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:58,280
about it, that this would have right or wrong that

952
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,719
this would have been your preseason. It was so easy

953
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:07,000
Dan to find examples of like of outlandishly positive things

954
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,079
I said or wrote about Kaminga, just like he kept

955
00:42:10,079 --> 00:42:14,159
popping up in every different iteration of preseason thing. The

956
00:42:14,159 --> 00:42:16,480
one I'm like kind of going with is that he

957
00:42:16,599 --> 00:42:20,840
can become the Warriors second star because looking at you know,

958
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,280
they this feels like a thousand years ago now, but

959
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,440
it was like, Wow, they put together this deep roster

960
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,199
they've got, you know they could and they did play

961
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,840
like twelve thirteen guys to start the season. What they

962
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,519
don't have is someone that can just draw defensive attention,

963
00:42:35,599 --> 00:42:40,320
create shots, score whatever other than Steph And it's like, well,

964
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,679
he's gonna be the guy, Like I think I think

965
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,840
he has that in him. I picked him as a

966
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,599
breakout candidate alongside guys like you know Wemby, Trey Murphy

967
00:42:48,639 --> 00:42:51,079
the third pat on the back for that one, Josh Giddy,

968
00:42:51,079 --> 00:42:53,360
who I thought would just stuff stats the late season

969
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,280
pat on the back for that one, Jabari Smith Junior

970
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,920
a little bit of a miss there. I had him

971
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:00,280
among the top ten guys I thought would be most

972
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,159
likely to make their first All Star game with like

973
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,480
Caid and Franz and Shingoon and Jada Mobiley Wemby turned

974
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,840
out okay on most of those, but Kaminga is very

975
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,599
much the like which one doesn't belong in all of these.

976
00:43:12,039 --> 00:43:15,800
So all this is is a confirmation of the fact that,

977
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,320
especially with like young Warriors prospects, I can't be trusted.

978
00:43:21,079 --> 00:43:23,920
I am irrational about them, and for what it's worth,

979
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,599
I am presently out on Kaminga as like a star

980
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,519
level player. So it only took three years longer than

981
00:43:31,559 --> 00:43:33,920
it took everyone else for me to get there. But

982
00:43:34,039 --> 00:43:36,000
I just don't think he's gotten in him to be

983
00:43:36,119 --> 00:43:39,320
like a star player role player. Fine, it's just I don't.

984
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,840
I don't see it happening anymore, and I apologize the

985
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:44,000
I mean.

986
00:43:44,159 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: You being wrong also makes and the context of it

987
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:49,960
also being they traded for Jimmy Butler. I like, what

988
00:43:50,159 --> 00:43:52,719
is going to happen with him and restricted free agency.

989
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,880
I'm sure a lot is riding on how well does

990
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:56,719
he perform in the playoffs and the role that they

991
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,840
kind of have him doing. Now there's been from what

992
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,280
I've seen, there's been some pretty like encouraging highs and

993
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:06,119
then like Nader's and it's that's the experiences, that's that

994
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:06,559
is it.

995
00:44:06,599 --> 00:44:08,079
Speaker 4: You've described his whole career.

996
00:44:08,079 --> 00:44:10,559
Speaker 3: It's like tantalizing highs and then stretches where it's like

997
00:44:10,639 --> 00:44:13,079
this guy does not have it. It's just that's what

998
00:44:13,159 --> 00:44:13,519
it is.

999
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:17,159
Speaker 2: Do you think this isn't what the pokt is about?

1000
00:44:17,199 --> 00:44:17,679
Really quickly?

1001
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 1: The thirty million dollars a year that he was seeking

1002
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,679
or that they offered him and he turned down, regardless

1003
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,159
of whether he's on the Warriors or another team.

1004
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:25,639
Speaker 2: Is he earning less than that?

1005
00:44:26,119 --> 00:44:28,599
Speaker 3: Oh? God? Yeah, Like I think twenty is the is

1006
00:44:28,639 --> 00:44:31,920
the ceiling now as a starting salary because it's he's

1007
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:36,280
gonna have Brooklyn and he's gonna have mid level offers probably,

1008
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,320
Like I just think I think that's where we are,

1009
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:40,400
so they're not gonna have to if they approach thirty

1010
00:44:40,639 --> 00:44:43,039
I would be stunned it Like, they just don't have to.

1011
00:44:43,519 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 1: I'm including this one a part of it because I

1012
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,519
don't believe it. I had the Knicks will have a

1013
00:44:48,639 --> 00:44:52,079
league average or better defense and will be the biggest

1014
00:44:52,079 --> 00:44:56,280
threat to the Celtics in the East. Now the Knicks technically,

1015
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,559
I still don't believe it, Like if you watch the like,

1016
00:44:59,599 --> 00:45:01,679
I just don't believe that they are going to finish

1017
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,880
the season with what are they twelfth in points of

1018
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,880
loud per possession this year or what is the overall

1019
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,679
ranking their ninth over like their pass whatever games that

1020
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:13,760
coincided with you know, jail runs a missing time, but

1021
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,599
they're twelfth in points loud per possession over overall.

1022
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:16,639
Speaker 2: In the year.

1023
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 1: I don't buy it, Like, I just don't. I count

1024
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,559
that as a miss on my part. Be Hold on,

1025
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,119
you're still you're right, and you're not buying it. I

1026
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:27,400
just watched their defense and it's you know, you did

1027
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,400
force me to take a closer look at og Nanobi

1028
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,960
when we were doing awards last year. He should absolutely

1029
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,239
be on more all defense ballots. But the thing I'm

1030
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,880
not buying, because they haven't beaten like any of the

1031
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,840
really good teams, is that they're not the second biggest

1032
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:41,760
threat in the East. That is one you throw a name,

1033
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:44,000
it's the Calves, and then I even have the Pacers

1034
00:45:44,039 --> 00:45:46,360
ahead of them. Right now, you could probably on any

1035
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,119
given night talk me into the Bucks or even the Pistons.

1036
00:45:49,159 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 2: At this point, I'm not prepared.

1037
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:53,280
Speaker 1: To go there, but I don't feel good, like I

1038
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,320
would have almost guaranteed they win at least one playoff

1039
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:57,719
series this year at the time.

1040
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:58,880
Speaker 2: I won't do that anymore.

1041
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 1: Yes, well, I picked them to beat the Pistons or

1042
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,000
the Bucks, whoever they face. Sure, but I won't feel

1043
00:46:04,039 --> 00:46:06,320
nearly as good about it. And I think the real

1044
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,440
miss here is thinking that because I've gone back and

1045
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,000
forth as to does this team deserve more time? Because

1046
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,480
when you look at how they remade the roster, especially

1047
00:46:14,519 --> 00:46:16,840
getting Towns so close to the start of training camp

1048
00:46:17,599 --> 00:46:20,559
in fury, you deserve more time. But time is not

1049
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:25,000
a luxury when you've burned all of your best trade assets,

1050
00:46:25,199 --> 00:46:27,159
and like, where are you going if you're not touching

1051
00:46:27,159 --> 00:46:29,760
the core? You can't really I would say futs and

1052
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,159
fiddle in a meaningful way. And now I think you

1053
00:46:32,199 --> 00:46:33,920
have to like, I don't think I ever would have

1054
00:46:34,039 --> 00:46:36,280
envisioned coming out of this season saying, oh, Giannanobi and

1055
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,519
Jalen Brunson are the only players that should be untouchable

1056
00:46:38,519 --> 00:46:40,800
on the Knicks and that's it. I probably would have said, well,

1057
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:42,719
at least one of Michal Bridges or Towns is too

1058
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,800
important to move, And now I look at it Towns

1059
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:46,639
has had a great year in a lot of ways.

1060
00:46:46,679 --> 00:46:48,519
Some people thought that he was more valuable to Jalen

1061
00:46:48,559 --> 00:46:51,039
Brunson at one point. That never should have been a thing.

1062
00:46:51,079 --> 00:46:53,239
I want to be clear. Josh Hart is like, can

1063
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:54,840
we find he brings the energy, but he's a clear

1064
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,320
liability in some of these matchups because of his shooting,

1065
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,440
because of how teams don't guard him and put their

1066
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,039
bigs on him and help off him row them off him.

1067
00:47:02,519 --> 00:47:05,599
I feel there's real talent here and they have the

1068
00:47:05,599 --> 00:47:07,239
third best record in the East. They have like a

1069
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,559
top what are they seventh in net rating or whatever?

1070
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:13,519
They're even look grant this is factoring in that beatdown

1071
00:47:13,599 --> 00:47:16,039
they suffered in the hands of the Celtics. They're sixteenth

1072
00:47:16,079 --> 00:47:19,159
in points a lot per possession against top ten offenses

1073
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:22,039
now and their fourth overall and net rating against those teams.

1074
00:47:22,079 --> 00:47:25,000
And yet I just feel like I missed on them still,

1075
00:47:25,039 --> 00:47:28,159
And I think the biggest miss for me was and

1076
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:30,039
you actually did bring this up, I didn't give it

1077
00:47:30,119 --> 00:47:33,039
enough credence at the time. I remember the conversation. They

1078
00:47:33,119 --> 00:47:35,599
were not built. They were built in the image of

1079
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,719
contending with the Celtics, and it was an imperfect division

1080
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,920
of the way they were planning on going about it.

1081
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, do you think they could be I guess I

1082
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,119
think I know the answer. Do you think they could

1083
00:47:48,119 --> 00:47:49,320
be better next year?

1084
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:55,119
Speaker 1: For them to be better next year, I think that

1085
00:47:55,199 --> 00:47:56,880
you have to believe the head coaching change is the

1086
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,840
way to make it happen if you're not moving one

1087
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,559
of the top five players, and it's I I think

1088
00:48:01,599 --> 00:48:03,519
I'm probably on the middle ground of TIBs now where

1089
00:48:03,519 --> 00:48:06,000
it's there's absolutely a problem with the minutes and the

1090
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:07,760
stubborness when it comes to some of his guys. If

1091
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,199
Knicks fans have a problem with people stating the obvious,

1092
00:48:10,199 --> 00:48:12,440
tell Thibodeau to stop making obvious mistakes.

1093
00:48:13,119 --> 00:48:15,679
Speaker 2: But there's also just like the culture.

1094
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,639
Speaker 1: He's helped build there, I think he has been a

1095
00:48:17,639 --> 00:48:19,639
little bit more flexible when you look at you know,

1096
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,199
against the Celtic I think with that Celtics game, but

1097
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,000
they also lost. Of course, like Jalen Brunson comes back

1098
00:48:25,039 --> 00:48:26,920
and because of what you've seen with og on the

1099
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,320
ball now one you've empowered him to do that. Like, oh,

1100
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,559
Jalen Brunson's setting more screens. I think they finally tried

1101
00:48:32,599 --> 00:48:35,719
some different things defensively against the Celtics. So he's not

1102
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,119
I don't think he's this rigid coach who won't make changes.

1103
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 2: But if I've.

1104
00:48:40,599 --> 00:48:42,519
Speaker 1: Wondered, and I think it was you I mentioned this too.

1105
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,880
If people consider, oh, the Calves needed to find their

1106
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:49,000
Kenny Atkinson to their JB. Bickerstaff, Like are the Knicks

1107
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:50,760
at the point where it's okay, like Tom Tibdau has

1108
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,920
brought them here, But if they want to get to

1109
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:54,480
the level that the Calves are at now or the

1110
00:48:54,519 --> 00:48:57,079
Celtics are at now, they need to find their Kenny,

1111
00:48:57,119 --> 00:48:59,880
they need to find their Steve Kerr even well.

1112
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: And that's that like ties into the reality that like,

1113
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,039
like you've said several times, you can't change the roster

1114
00:49:10,159 --> 00:49:12,840
in a meaningful way unless you really change the roster

1115
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,480
by trading one of these main guys. So it's like

1116
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:20,039
the coach changes the logical thing to try because that's

1117
00:49:20,119 --> 00:49:24,519
just easier. I just, yeah, that's I really thought about

1118
00:49:24,599 --> 00:49:27,320
that being the fix, just because I I there do

1119
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:29,719
seem to be like I guess like with towns as

1120
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,360
your center, you're just your ceiling, is what it is.

1121
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,719
Like he just has these priced in limitations. But I

1122
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,199
do wonder if, like what would happen if you could

1123
00:49:37,199 --> 00:49:39,280
get Towns to take ten threes a game? Like what

1124
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:42,760
you know, like what could we like just see or

1125
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,280
like could there be a little more offensive dynamism could

1126
00:49:45,639 --> 00:49:47,800
like just not with TIBs, is what you're saying.

1127
00:49:48,119 --> 00:49:51,159
Speaker 1: I well, maybe, because like so the Celtics, the most

1128
00:49:51,199 --> 00:49:53,079
recent Celtic seem is a good example. Maybe it took

1129
00:49:53,079 --> 00:49:55,159
too long to get here, but it's they're gonna put

1130
00:49:55,159 --> 00:49:57,719
someone small on Karl Anthony Towns, like, oh, make him

1131
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,039
punish those mismatches. But it's all so like even if

1132
00:50:01,039 --> 00:50:03,519
you use defensively as where I'm more concerned. I wish

1133
00:50:03,559 --> 00:50:06,719
his shot profile skewed more towards the outside, but defensively

1134
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,679
look at it and say, even when they're more aggressive

1135
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:10,679
with him, then you kind of need that's where I

1136
00:50:10,679 --> 00:50:12,719
think he's best suited. Then you kind of need to

1137
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:15,159
make sure that you're trusting everybody else on their rotations

1138
00:50:15,159 --> 00:50:17,800
and they're scrambling and with Jalen Brunson and even with

1139
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,559
Josh hart At like you can't even do that. And

1140
00:50:20,639 --> 00:50:22,679
so I am open to the idea that Timms is

1141
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:25,119
not the primary problem. But if this is the core

1142
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,679
you want to move forward with. I think you have

1143
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:29,719
to depending on what happens in the playoffs, of course,

1144
00:50:29,719 --> 00:50:31,280
and I know they just extended him, but that really

1145
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,800
doesn't mean anything. Look at what happened with Monty Williams

1146
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,679
last year in the contract that they fired him that

1147
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:37,239
he was on.

1148
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:38,320
Speaker 3: I just.

1149
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: Like, let's say they want to move off some of

1150
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,039
their players. People know what Josh Hart's limitations are. You're

1151
00:50:45,039 --> 00:50:48,079
not getting better, like a lot better by moving Josh Hart.

1152
00:50:48,079 --> 00:50:51,400
You're not getting better, especially when you consider all you invested. Yes,

1153
00:50:51,519 --> 00:50:53,519
there will be teams that will trade for Kalmber Bridges

1154
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:58,119
up Mkalemba Bridges, McHale Bridges. There are exactly zero teams

1155
00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:00,880
that will give you anywhere near what you gave up

1156
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:02,519
to get him in terms of value as a player

1157
00:51:02,599 --> 00:51:06,039
or pick equity. Even Towns is just We'll have more

1158
00:51:06,079 --> 00:51:08,039
on this at some point. I think, like I've given

1159
00:51:08,079 --> 00:51:10,519
thought to just would it be worth rolling the dice

1160
00:51:10,559 --> 00:51:12,559
of if you could use Karl Anthony Towns to get

1161
00:51:12,599 --> 00:51:15,360
Kevin Durant, and then if you bringing Kevin Durant, your

1162
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:19,079
overall defense gets better, You're scoring probably gets a little better,

1163
00:51:19,079 --> 00:51:21,320
and then it's what we need Mitchell Robinson and need

1164
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:24,239
to approximate value at the center position with other bigs.

1165
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 2: Is that a better route for them to go? I

1166
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:26,880
don't know.

1167
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,039
Speaker 1: But if you're not gonna be able to do anything

1168
00:51:29,119 --> 00:51:32,519
like that or move one of these players who I

1169
00:51:32,559 --> 00:51:34,599
do agree, by the way, like Jalen Bruns and Ogantobe,

1170
00:51:34,639 --> 00:51:36,280
they can't go anywhere like those are the two like

1171
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,920
you move forward with them. If you don't think that

1172
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:42,960
you can get material lea better by making a trade,

1173
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,639
you have to look at changing head coaches again, unless

1174
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,360
maybe they like let me ask you, do you think

1175
00:51:49,679 --> 00:51:51,480
they're one of the teams that can be better in

1176
00:51:51,519 --> 00:51:53,559
the playoffs than we've seen against it? Because you and

1177
00:51:53,559 --> 00:51:55,559
I are pretty big on you have to throw some

1178
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:57,719
so much of the regular season out the window because

1179
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:00,000
of injuries, and you're just not getting time to get

1180
00:52:00,199 --> 00:52:02,320
plan for teams. I just don't know that I've seen

1181
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:04,559
enough out of the Knicks in net to think that

1182
00:52:04,639 --> 00:52:07,639
once they get to the postseason they have the sort

1183
00:52:07,639 --> 00:52:09,119
of any given Sunday chance.

1184
00:52:09,639 --> 00:52:12,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, And with them it's a special case because like

1185
00:52:12,639 --> 00:52:15,239
they kind of throw their fastball every night. In terms

1186
00:52:15,239 --> 00:52:18,199
of like who's playing so it's like we've I don't

1187
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,920
know that there's like, oh, okay, playoff time, let's shorten

1188
00:52:20,960 --> 00:52:23,320
the rotation, let's really focus on what we do well.

1189
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,719
They kind of like they just do that on every

1190
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:28,880
Thursday or what like that. That's just that's just how

1191
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:31,840
they play. So I don't know how much you're really

1192
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:35,400
gonna learn. And but then I think back to like

1193
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,719
how fun they were as a playoff team last year

1194
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,880
and how much I enjoyed, like, Oh, isn't it great

1195
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,440
when the Knicks are like just balls to the wall

1196
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:46,920
and like playing really hard, And so yeah, I I

1197
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:47,280
don't know.

1198
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:47,559
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1199
00:52:47,599 --> 00:52:50,119
Speaker 3: They're They're a fascinating team. I don't think they have

1200
00:52:50,199 --> 00:52:53,280
another level to go. You could, so I asked the

1201
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:56,079
question initially, but like you could talk me into the

1202
00:52:56,119 --> 00:53:00,639
idea that full training camp, like some come to Jesus

1203
00:53:00,679 --> 00:53:02,920
moments with the coaching staff of like what do we

1204
00:53:03,039 --> 00:53:05,119
really got to do with these guys, Like what's the

1205
00:53:05,159 --> 00:53:07,639
best way to play on both ends? Can we tweak

1206
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,559
a few things like tactically? You could talk me into

1207
00:53:11,599 --> 00:53:14,800
them being better next year with the same personnel and

1208
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,199
even the same coach. But I think we're sort of

1209
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:21,000
saying the same thing where like you need a tactical

1210
00:53:21,119 --> 00:53:24,480
or a personnel based shift, then it might need to

1211
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:27,599
be pretty big, like to do better than what they're doing.

1212
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,199
Speaker 1: And I think, look, this one's come back to the

1213
00:53:30,199 --> 00:53:32,639
Tim's minutes. But it's I know Jalen Brunson missed some time,

1214
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,079
like like start to look at the availability of these

1215
00:53:35,119 --> 00:53:37,599
guys over the past couple seasons. At some point that

1216
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,920
love the mchal Bridges, iron Man Luck is going to

1217
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:43,760
run out at some point, like ognob this year, like

1218
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:45,480
is he gonna finish with three thousand minutes?

1219
00:53:45,519 --> 00:53:47,599
Speaker 2: I don't remember how close? Like that stuff is not

1220
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,400
something that you can continue to bank on. And then

1221
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:55,360
the other thing, like with Tims, specifically the starting lineup.

1222
00:53:55,679 --> 00:53:58,199
I understand that those are your five best players, and

1223
00:53:58,199 --> 00:54:00,400
in theory that should be the line of your on

1224
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:03,599
the most you're plus four points or whatever per one

1225
00:54:03,679 --> 00:54:06,639
hundred possessions. That's not like for the most used lineup

1226
00:54:06,639 --> 00:54:09,599
in the league. It's like, why aren't we trying more stuff?

1227
00:54:09,639 --> 00:54:12,519
Speaker 1: And it's it's it seems obvious and it's counter to like, oh,

1228
00:54:12,679 --> 00:54:14,440
you don't need to pull him out of the starting five.

1229
00:54:14,559 --> 00:54:17,960
But that's that's the stuff that Tibbs I don't think

1230
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:20,800
has ever gotten far enough away from, Like he's always

1231
00:54:21,119 --> 00:54:23,639
is always gonna come back to be married to his guys,

1232
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:25,400
even if it's not his principles, like some of the

1233
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:28,440
ways he plays dual guard lineups, going a little bit

1234
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:31,159
smaller in points, having a floor spacing big at all,

1235
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:33,880
like like he's grown. But I just don't know if

1236
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:37,000
it's enough. And look, because we're in the business of

1237
00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:39,440
giving definitive statements, No, I don't. I don't think that

1238
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,440
Tom Thibodeau is the right coach for this team. I'm

1239
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:43,079
open to the idea that I'm too low on him.

1240
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:45,480
I think that some people blame him too much for

1241
00:54:45,519 --> 00:54:47,559
what is happening. But I do think that this is

1242
00:54:47,599 --> 00:54:51,920
a situation that you could squeeze ten to twenty percent

1243
00:54:52,159 --> 00:54:56,119
better production, like as a whole out of if the

1244
00:54:56,159 --> 00:54:59,039
coaching approach was different or more innovative. And that's just

1245
00:54:59,079 --> 00:55:01,800
something that I still it's fair. Do you still believe

1246
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:03,559
this take about John burran.

1247
00:55:03,599 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 3: Ooh, well, it's the face of the lead for the

1248
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:10,360
wrong reasons, I guess. So. I thought Jaw this year

1249
00:55:11,039 --> 00:55:14,320
would have a shot to kind of like this time

1250
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,639
a year ago, I guess maybe even a little less

1251
00:55:16,639 --> 00:55:18,800
than that, Anthony Edwards was like, all right, he's it.

1252
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:23,360
He's the next American superstar player, Like he's he's the guy,

1253
00:55:24,039 --> 00:55:27,280
and really like has even though I'd say the Wolf

1254
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,280
season has been sort of a disappointment, I don't think

1255
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:31,599
he's done anything to kind of like quiet that down.

1256
00:55:31,679 --> 00:55:33,400
It's not like at a fever pitch like it was

1257
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,320
during the last postseason and even some of the Olympics stuff,

1258
00:55:37,039 --> 00:55:39,199
early Olympic stuff where he just looked like the only

1259
00:55:39,199 --> 00:55:42,239
guy that could create a shot. I thought Jaw would

1260
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,840
get back to that level. And like part of this

1261
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,360
is you just look at the body of work where

1262
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:50,920
very early in his career, Moran is like, well, the

1263
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,320
Grizzlies are in the conference finals, like oh all right,

1264
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:55,920
like or you know, they're making a couple of playoff runs.

1265
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 4: I never get it exactly right.

1266
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:01,079
Speaker 3: It's either seventh and ninth or like ninth and twelfth

1267
00:56:01,159 --> 00:56:04,719
or something like that. In MVP voting, just like a

1268
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:08,239
couple of years ago, the like the bounce, the the

1269
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,840
comeback angle, the whole like the Grizzlies were only bad

1270
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,679
because they had the entire roster hurt, so they're gonna

1271
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,199
be back in the national consciousness.

1272
00:56:16,559 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 4: Like they'll be good, He'll be great.

1273
00:56:18,679 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 3: We'll just be back to you know, he'll be in

1274
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,519
the conversation again. Is like, this is the guy that

1275
00:56:23,639 --> 00:56:25,760
Nike gave a bunch of money to right away, got

1276
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,920
a signature shoe. We'll think about him on the Edwards level.

1277
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:32,840
And then he's hurt on and off all season. Gets

1278
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,400
back to like being in the news for the wrong reasons.

1279
00:56:35,679 --> 00:56:39,800
Memphis turns out pretty dysfunctional situation, not necessarily his fault,

1280
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,000
but like that's you know that that hurts the narrative

1281
00:56:43,039 --> 00:56:48,079
to not not his fault. So that was just wrong again,

1282
00:56:48,119 --> 00:56:50,480
though this is a I feel better about being wrong

1283
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,039
about stuff like this, where I'm predicting that someone is

1284
00:56:53,039 --> 00:56:55,920
gonna like have a great positive thing happen, and it's

1285
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,320
just like it's disappointing, but it's like, you know, I

1286
00:57:00,039 --> 00:57:02,320
it's better to be wrong this way than than to

1287
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:04,480
have something go the other way where you're like he'll

1288
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,440
be horrible or you know, and being wrong that way.

1289
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,639
Speaker 1: I meant to this, so that going back to how

1290
00:57:10,679 --> 00:57:13,000
you felt about Scoot coming out of the draft and

1291
00:57:13,039 --> 00:57:15,159
then just having this type of a take with John Moran.

1292
00:57:15,519 --> 00:57:18,280
Do you have a thing for that hyper athletic point guard,

1293
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,519
because I don't. I've never vi utus with Russell Westbrook guy.

1294
00:57:20,519 --> 00:57:24,039
And you've also been pretty open or candid about the

1295
00:57:24,079 --> 00:57:27,119
fact that you think players such as John Moran might

1296
00:57:27,199 --> 00:57:29,679
just have a shorter prime than a lot of these

1297
00:57:29,719 --> 00:57:32,360
other stars. But you've also been this take on John

1298
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:34,320
Moran and I remember how high.

1299
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 2: I think that's the single.

1300
00:57:35,480 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 1: We've only been podcasting together for like three or four

1301
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:40,079
years at this point, but I'm pretty sure that's the

1302
00:57:40,119 --> 00:57:41,760
single highest I've ever seen you on.

1303
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 2: A prospect on on Scoot, Yeah, Scoot, sorry.

1304
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's a little he's he just I

1305
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,719
just drank the kool aid on like the hyperbolic scouting

1306
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,679
reports his film. He just looked even you remember those

1307
00:57:55,719 --> 00:57:58,480
like I forget what they even were, was like Overtime

1308
00:57:58,519 --> 00:58:01,119
Elite or whichever one he was on Ignite. I can't

1309
00:58:01,159 --> 00:58:04,519
remember playing against like Wemby's French team. This is like

1310
00:58:04,639 --> 00:58:09,079
two octobers ago, and it's like, yeah, Wemby's like incredible,

1311
00:58:09,119 --> 00:58:12,559
but Scoot looks so explosive and like he's here for it,

1312
00:58:12,599 --> 00:58:14,719
and like I just that just put it over the

1313
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:17,159
top for me to where I just thought Scoot was

1314
00:58:17,199 --> 00:58:21,440
gonna be Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook combined. You know,

1315
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:25,360
you couldn't have said anything too ridiculous, and as you know,

1316
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:27,840
I was wrong about that. I'm glad that he looks

1317
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:30,920
like a real like legit like difference maker now or

1318
00:58:31,039 --> 00:58:34,360
has a chance to be. So yeah, I guess he's

1319
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:36,960
a little different. Jaw was just like some of the

1320
00:58:37,000 --> 00:58:39,400
things he could do athletically and some of the moments

1321
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:41,440
he would have where it was just like, there's no

1322
00:58:41,559 --> 00:58:45,119
solution for this guy because he just he just physically

1323
00:58:45,159 --> 00:58:47,159
can get where he wants to get at all times,

1324
00:58:47,199 --> 00:58:49,679
and like, what do you do with that? That's definitely

1325
00:58:49,719 --> 00:58:53,639
like the I don't know, like the unsophisticated basketball fan

1326
00:58:53,679 --> 00:58:56,760
in me, like just overtaking like hey, Dumby, he can't

1327
00:58:56,760 --> 00:59:00,000
shoot and like can't guard anybody, and he's gonna get hurt,

1328
00:59:00,079 --> 00:59:02,960
and it's just like I just shut all that noise out.

1329
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:06,760
I think something, as is the case with most things,

1330
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,719
like the truth is in the middle. Like he's athletically spectacular,

1331
00:59:10,119 --> 00:59:12,280
he does things no one else can do. He has

1332
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:14,000
a bunch of flaws as a player, and to that

1333
00:59:14,039 --> 00:59:17,559
we now add like durability. So you know, I will

1334
00:59:17,599 --> 00:59:20,360
say that I will not be predicting another Jamarant like

1335
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:22,960
a cent for next year, even though like you could

1336
00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:24,760
put it together in your brain if you wanted to,

1337
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,760
like new coach, I don't know, new three point celebration.

1338
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:30,320
I don't know if you saw that that was that

1339
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:30,960
was interesting?

1340
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,159
Speaker 1: Uh so did you see the tweet from Chasing Conception

1341
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:39,239
of the Six Rings podcast or whatever it's called, where

1342
00:59:39,239 --> 00:59:42,119
it was like Jamarant choosing a celebration and it was

1343
00:59:42,119 --> 00:59:43,400
I don't know what game it was, but it was

1344
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:45,280
all the different like weapons that you.

1345
00:59:45,639 --> 00:59:49,559
Speaker 3: Use, He's just running through them.

1346
00:59:50,039 --> 00:59:52,079
Speaker 2: So you have a back to back one here.

1347
00:59:52,159 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: This is shared one from us, I will say basically though,

1348
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:56,079
but ye have one.

1349
00:59:56,440 --> 00:59:58,679
Speaker 3: This is another kool aid one where although it was

1350
00:59:58,719 --> 01:00:02,519
like pre draft like statistical models that said Reed Shepherd

1351
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:05,599
was just gonna be incredible, like there's just never been

1352
01:00:05,639 --> 01:00:08,280
a guy this efficient as a scorer, as a distributor,

1353
01:00:08,440 --> 01:00:12,079
as a disruptor on defense. So I thought, and I

1354
01:00:12,159 --> 01:00:15,320
definitely used this word more than once, that Reed Shepherd

1355
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:19,239
would be like undeniable and the rockets, Hey they're gonna

1356
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:20,960
have to make some tough decisions. Maybe you've got to

1357
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:24,480
trade Fred van Vliet or like diminish his role or something,

1358
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,760
because yeah, you know, because this would be the pushback. Well,

1359
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:30,480
rockets have so much depth, Like Aman Thompson's got to play.

1360
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:32,800
Fred van Vliet's here on a thirty million dollars a

1361
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:34,920
year deal or whatever it is, Like, he's got to play.

1362
01:00:35,320 --> 01:00:37,840
Don't care. Read Shepherd's just going to be too good.

1363
01:00:38,039 --> 01:00:40,400
They'll have no choice. And then Summer League kind of

1364
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:42,599
made it seem that, like, Okay, that's not a crazy

1365
01:00:42,599 --> 01:00:45,119
take because he looked really good and then he just

1366
01:00:45,159 --> 01:00:47,480
flashed it. Now he's played like forty games, he's averaging

1367
01:00:47,519 --> 01:00:50,239
three points a game, hasn't shot it well. He did

1368
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:53,119
get one start and he looked great, But he still

1369
01:00:53,159 --> 01:00:55,360
has just gotten one start and one game in which

1370
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:59,039
he looked great. You were on board with I don't

1371
01:00:59,079 --> 01:01:01,639
know if you got in. He's gonna be undeniable of

1372
01:01:01,679 --> 01:01:03,840
it all, but like you were on board with him,

1373
01:01:04,159 --> 01:01:06,840
and so I ask you, how do you feel about

1374
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:07,519
Reed Shepherd?

1375
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:08,199
Speaker 2: Now?

1376
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,519
Speaker 3: Like going forward? How dampened is your enthusiasm?

1377
01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:15,199
Speaker 1: It's a little damping just in a sense I don't

1378
01:01:15,199 --> 01:01:19,960
know if then he'll ever have the agency to develop

1379
01:01:20,039 --> 01:01:22,079
into the player that I still believe that he could be,

1380
01:01:22,079 --> 01:01:23,960
because I think if you told me that the Rockets

1381
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:25,880
really committed to Read Shepherd and we're willing to take

1382
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:30,119
a step back in terms of progress, isn't linear mode.

1383
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:33,440
I still think Read Shepherd is the play like everything

1384
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,480
they need, but they're on this different timeline now, and

1385
01:01:36,519 --> 01:01:38,679
it gets if he reaches it with them and feels

1386
01:01:38,679 --> 01:01:40,320
like it'll be delayed where it's like you're bringing and

1387
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:42,800
like they do have a history of bringing their youngsters

1388
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,760
along a little bit, like even Aman Thompson last year. Yeah,

1389
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:47,599
but they did the same thing with Cam Whitmore and

1390
01:01:47,639 --> 01:01:50,239
he hasn't been like a massive part of what they're doing,

1391
01:01:50,920 --> 01:01:52,960
but in terms of like trying to increase it from

1392
01:01:53,039 --> 01:01:55,840
last year. So I worry that if Read Shepherd's gonna

1393
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,199
be as good as I thought he was gonna be,

1394
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:00,960
that it's not going to be on this team, which

1395
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:04,559
I guess is fine. But whenever you see someone so

1396
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:06,960
like if he winds up being traded in a consolidation

1397
01:02:07,079 --> 01:02:09,480
trade before his third year, how often do we see

1398
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:11,719
the players involved in that just go on to become

1399
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:15,000
actual like shake Gildes, Alexander's pretty anomalist.

1400
01:02:14,639 --> 01:02:18,679
Speaker 3: Right something like that? Yeah, do you so? I think

1401
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:21,800
like the fact that it did take an injury for

1402
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:25,239
Thompson to like get a starting spot and stick this year,

1403
01:02:25,599 --> 01:02:29,119
I think is like is a heartening thing to know

1404
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,400
if you're trying to like suss out.

1405
01:02:32,119 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 4: Well is reed Shepherd?

1406
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 3: Like did he not play it because like I don't

1407
01:02:36,519 --> 01:02:38,760
know in practice or whatever, is like he's just overwhelmed,

1408
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:42,159
he's not ready or was it because the Rockets just

1409
01:02:42,159 --> 01:02:44,760
just don't like throw the guy out there. They just

1410
01:02:44,800 --> 01:02:47,480
don't do it like they you know, like Thompson. It's

1411
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:50,519
watching Thompson now. It's insane that like how did how

1412
01:02:50,559 --> 01:02:53,000
did this guy not start the year in the first unit?

1413
01:02:53,239 --> 01:02:56,039
How did he not finish? Like it? Just so as

1414
01:02:56,079 --> 01:02:58,440
a as a Shepherd believer to answer my own question,

1415
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:02,079
I still think like it's way too soon to say, oh,

1416
01:03:02,119 --> 01:03:04,239
he doesn't have it, Like I think I think there's

1417
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,039
every chance he's got it and he's gonna be a

1418
01:03:06,039 --> 01:03:10,679
really good pro a starter or whatever. But like it

1419
01:03:10,719 --> 01:03:14,079
does make me concerned that that the Rockets, like I

1420
01:03:14,119 --> 01:03:16,679
don't know what a guy's got to do to really

1421
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:18,920
get a fair shot. And maybe that's just because they

1422
01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:21,639
got mouths, a bunch of mouths to feed, and his

1423
01:03:21,719 --> 01:03:24,960
contract status is not the is not as urgent as like, well,

1424
01:03:25,239 --> 01:03:27,519
we better find out about Thompson, we better find out

1425
01:03:27,559 --> 01:03:31,599
about whatever. Like maybe that's a factor too. I still believe,

1426
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,599
I just I'm just gonna be really interested to see

1427
01:03:34,599 --> 01:03:35,920
what kind of shot he gets next year.

1428
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:38,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, I still believe he's gonna be the best player

1429
01:03:38,079 --> 01:03:39,920
of this draft class. It's either gonna be hammering of

1430
01:03:39,960 --> 01:03:42,559
coolatopish for me, another guy who hasn't played for for injuries.

1431
01:03:42,599 --> 01:03:44,360
There's another player and there ever, we're gonna get to him,

1432
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:45,840
and he's clearly not gonna be the best player of

1433
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:49,960
this draft class. My final two here, well, no, let's

1434
01:03:50,000 --> 01:03:52,880
get to him right now. Cody Williams will make first

1435
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:57,000
team All Rookie. I can say with some measure of

1436
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,360
confidence that Cody Williams is not going to make first

1437
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:02,840
team rookie. He has a higher turnover rate than his

1438
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:07,199
usage rate under forty percent from two under twenty seven

1439
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:12,199
percent from three. There have been grant a number of

1440
01:04:12,360 --> 01:04:16,320
fifty five rookies who have logged at least log at

1441
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,920
least a thousand minutes and have a usage rate south

1442
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:23,119
of thirteen, which is incredibly low. Hard Cody Williams comfortably

1443
01:04:23,159 --> 01:04:25,159
has the worst true shooting percentage of them all at

1444
01:04:25,159 --> 01:04:28,719
forty one to point nine. Second to last and fifty

1445
01:04:28,719 --> 01:04:34,320
fourth is Yakuba Diawara had a forty five true shooting percentage,

1446
01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:38,320
so like almost four percentage three percentage points higher. I

1447
01:04:38,400 --> 01:04:41,199
still believe that he could become kind of this usual

1448
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:44,320
wing player. I think specifically on defense it will be

1449
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:48,199
there the malleability, But offensively, I don't know if he's

1450
01:04:48,199 --> 01:04:52,360
ever gonna have like the get it mode. I thought

1451
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:54,719
he could be someone who could initiate in addition to

1452
01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:56,559
getting going downhill and be aggressive.

1453
01:04:57,239 --> 01:04:59,119
Speaker 2: I've just I'm not out.

1454
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:02,079
Speaker 1: But I had number one on my draft bickboard and

1455
01:05:02,239 --> 01:05:03,159
that was a mistake.

1456
01:05:03,679 --> 01:05:07,280
Speaker 3: Well point in his He's Jayalen Williams brother, so he's

1457
01:05:07,320 --> 01:05:10,920
gonna be great, don't worry about it. So I was

1458
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:13,599
doing a bunch of work on the on the Jazz's

1459
01:05:13,679 --> 01:05:16,400
rookie class the other day and and I was trying

1460
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:18,199
to you did a great You did a better job

1461
01:05:18,239 --> 01:05:20,239
than I did. I was just trying to, like encapsulate,

1462
01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:24,880
just like how invisible Williams can be. And I think

1463
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:27,480
it's pretty I'll get it pretty close to right because

1464
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:28,800
I don't have it in front of me. But like

1465
01:05:29,039 --> 01:05:32,719
in his first I think his first eighteen games as

1466
01:05:32,719 --> 01:05:36,119
a pro, he made sixteen shots. And do you know

1467
01:05:36,159 --> 01:05:38,360
what I thought when I when I read that stat

1468
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:39,519
seems high?

1469
01:05:39,880 --> 01:05:42,440
Speaker 4: Seems high? Really, I couldn't tell you.

1470
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:45,079
Speaker 3: I can't remember him making eight shots in his first

1471
01:05:45,079 --> 01:05:48,880
eighteen like he I don't know what what you do

1472
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:54,039
with a guy that like just isn't like participating for

1473
01:05:54,199 --> 01:05:56,199
so much of the time he's on the floor. I like,

1474
01:05:56,239 --> 01:05:59,039
it's hard to really think of you sided Diuara, that

1475
01:05:59,079 --> 01:06:01,760
guy was in the NBA for a like a second,

1476
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:05,440
Like I just I don't know, like what you do

1477
01:06:06,159 --> 01:06:11,880
to coax like some production some like involvement, Like is

1478
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:12,719
it schematic?

1479
01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:13,199
Speaker 2: Is it just?

1480
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 4: Is it him?

1481
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:15,840
Speaker 3: Like is he really just party the problem?

1482
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:16,719
Speaker 2: Should they fire him?

1483
01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:19,920
Speaker 3: Just why isn't will Hardy getting thirty shots a night

1484
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:23,639
for Cody Williams. Dan Uh, Yeah, that's a tough one.

1485
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:27,880
I I like Cody Williams too, I didn't like him

1486
01:06:27,880 --> 01:06:29,880
as much as you did, So I don't have quite

1487
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:32,119
as much skin in the game. But that's it was

1488
01:06:32,159 --> 01:06:34,400
a tough look this year because why wouldn't the Jazz

1489
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:36,159
just let him explore the space? What do they have

1490
01:06:36,199 --> 01:06:36,599
to lose?

1491
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 1: Apparently a whole lot at this point, a lot of

1492
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:42,920
like a lot of I'm just.

1493
01:06:43,239 --> 01:06:44,199
Speaker 2: That's a huge miss.

1494
01:06:44,239 --> 01:06:47,320
Speaker 1: Also, this is I don't feel terrible about this final one.

1495
01:06:47,480 --> 01:06:50,280
But I predicted that Scottie Barnes will join the twenty

1496
01:06:50,320 --> 01:06:53,039
five point eight assist club. He didn't even join the

1497
01:06:53,159 --> 01:06:55,960
twenty and six club. He's like under twenty points per game.

1498
01:06:56,400 --> 01:06:59,960
It was ambitious because here's the list of players Grant

1499
01:07:00,119 --> 01:07:03,960
have done that before their twenty fourth birthday, Luka, Doncic,

1500
01:07:04,159 --> 01:07:07,440
Trey Young, Oscar Robinson, Tiny Archibald and John Morant.

1501
01:07:07,639 --> 01:07:09,679
Speaker 2: It's like that was pretty ambitious. But I was looking

1502
01:07:09,679 --> 01:07:10,480
at even with RJ.

1503
01:07:10,599 --> 01:07:12,920
Speaker 1: Barrett and Emmanuel Quickly, and we knew Quickly was kind

1504
01:07:12,920 --> 01:07:15,119
of injured at the time. I looked at it and said,

1505
01:07:15,239 --> 01:07:17,119
all right, if he stays healthy, like the offense kind

1506
01:07:17,119 --> 01:07:18,800
of has to run through him, they could they do

1507
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,119
some egalitarian stuff, but he's just gonna put up numbers.

1508
01:07:22,639 --> 01:07:24,559
I think he's made a ton of strides defensively. I

1509
01:07:24,559 --> 01:07:26,760
haven't seen as much of it offensively, and I kind

1510
01:07:26,800 --> 01:07:28,880
of bought into just like, oh, the perimeter game from

1511
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:29,960
him a lot.

1512
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:33,639
Speaker 2: Of flashes last year. This year feels more rickety, So

1513
01:07:34,159 --> 01:07:34,440
I don't.

1514
01:07:34,559 --> 01:07:36,639
Speaker 1: I still think Scottie Barnes is going to be like,

1515
01:07:36,679 --> 01:07:38,719
he's an all NBA type of player to me, but

1516
01:07:39,119 --> 01:07:40,760
if he's going to join the twenty five and eight club,

1517
01:07:40,760 --> 01:07:41,960
it is not going to be this season.

1518
01:07:42,639 --> 01:07:44,920
Speaker 3: Was that a bold prediction or was it as part

1519
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:46,760
of a bold predictions or was that just a this

1520
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:48,280
is the sane prediction.

1521
01:07:48,199 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 1: I wrote, and I didn't pull all of them from here.

1522
01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:54,239
I was actually impressed, like some of mine like actually hit.

1523
01:07:54,440 --> 01:07:57,199
But I wrote one prediction for every team, so they

1524
01:07:57,199 --> 01:08:00,880
were just trying to be not like, oh, Scottie Barnes

1525
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:03,239
will play in twenty five games, like at least twenty five,

1526
01:08:03,239 --> 01:08:05,320
Like I wasn't trying to make him just oh duh.

1527
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:07,719
But I didn't count this as a bold prediction because

1528
01:08:07,719 --> 01:08:10,559
I thought like he was over what was he the

1529
01:08:10,599 --> 01:08:14,000
season before, where he was at twenty or twenty five

1530
01:08:14,079 --> 01:08:15,920
and or twenty three and six.

1531
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:19,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that was ambitious.

1532
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:21,600
Speaker 1: It was ambitious insofar as I'm trying to look at

1533
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:24,720
his numbers now that are not like he was around

1534
01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:27,239
twenty points and six assists, which is basically where he

1535
01:08:27,359 --> 01:08:30,680
kind of stayed this year. So I jumped the shark

1536
01:08:31,319 --> 01:08:34,680
a little bit or indefinitely here, all right, before we

1537
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:37,439
reveal the winner of our over under competition, let's look

1538
01:08:37,479 --> 01:08:39,800
at I'll throw it up on screen, but for anyone

1539
01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:41,279
listening on audio, Grant and I would just pull out

1540
01:08:41,319 --> 01:08:44,319
anything else that sort of stands out of how teams

1541
01:08:44,399 --> 01:08:50,039
fared relative to their over unders here. So looking at

1542
01:08:50,119 --> 01:08:51,800
kind of that screen, Rener, you can see how every

1543
01:08:51,800 --> 01:08:54,359
team either outperformed or miss Is there anyone maybe we

1544
01:08:54,399 --> 01:08:56,800
haven't talked about or you just want to reiterate that

1545
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:59,000
stands out to you, Well.

1546
01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:01,119
Speaker 3: I mean the heat or the first one. They're going

1547
01:09:01,159 --> 01:09:03,039
to be seven and a half on pace to be

1548
01:09:03,079 --> 01:09:06,479
seven and a half under that number. I guess the

1549
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:09,279
Butler trade is part of that. But like they were circling,

1550
01:09:09,359 --> 01:09:12,399
they were in rough shape even before that. You know

1551
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:17,399
the other thing I noticed I wrote preseason, it's kind

1552
01:09:17,399 --> 01:09:19,640
of wondering. I don't think I can't say I called it,

1553
01:09:20,079 --> 01:09:22,520
but it was like, is there maybe a Jimmy Butler

1554
01:09:22,560 --> 01:09:25,680
trade brewing at some point, and so like maybe that

1555
01:09:25,760 --> 01:09:29,600
was more foreseeable than it. It became pretty obvious pretty fast.

1556
01:09:29,640 --> 01:09:32,319
But like, I guess maybe that should have been priced

1557
01:09:32,319 --> 01:09:34,560
into that over under at some point, and pretty clearly

1558
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:35,000
it wasn't.

1559
01:09:36,399 --> 01:09:36,560
Speaker 2: You know.

1560
01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:40,000
Speaker 1: What stands out to me, so the Wizard's only missing

1561
01:09:40,079 --> 01:09:42,239
by about two and a half, where it's, oh, they're

1562
01:09:42,279 --> 01:09:45,560
technically worse, but they were so get racked up so

1563
01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:47,880
many losses so early that like they kind of go

1564
01:09:47,960 --> 01:09:49,840
through these where they're winning more games, being a little

1565
01:09:49,840 --> 01:09:52,319
bit more competitive at points later in the season that

1566
01:09:52,359 --> 01:09:54,920
it's there they feel like they ended up being better

1567
01:09:55,399 --> 01:09:57,279
than we and they were better than the wins that

1568
01:09:57,319 --> 01:09:59,600
we like specifically, or at least I had them penzeled

1569
01:09:59,600 --> 01:10:01,840
them in for. But them being so close to their

1570
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:03,680
over under when I was probably sure that they were

1571
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,600
gonna lean so far away from it, I think it

1572
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:08,560
shows the value of being bad.

1573
01:10:08,359 --> 01:10:09,199
Speaker 2: Right out of the gate.

1574
01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:12,720
Speaker 3: I think the Spurs being really close to the number

1575
01:10:12,720 --> 01:10:15,439
despite losing Wemby when they did is pretty surprising. That

1576
01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:17,880
means they were actually like quite a bit better than

1577
01:10:17,880 --> 01:10:21,279
most people thought before that, you know, before they lost him.

1578
01:10:21,279 --> 01:10:23,520
That's a weird one that's gonna end up hitting, but

1579
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:26,680
like for reasons that we're not that foreseeable, you know

1580
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:28,600
that there's that's a that's an interesting one to me.

1581
01:10:29,319 --> 01:10:31,359
Speaker 1: How about the Thunder out performing by ten and a

1582
01:10:31,399 --> 01:10:33,600
half within where it's just they were so high.

1583
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:36,680
Speaker 2: To begin with, and yet they join the Calves.

1584
01:10:36,520 --> 01:10:38,520
Speaker 3: The Rockets, the Bulls.

1585
01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, like those are teams that were working well for

1586
01:10:40,760 --> 01:10:44,199
the Pistons and Bulls, they're working from lower baselines specifically.

1587
01:10:44,199 --> 01:10:46,199
And even Houston it was there over under was what

1588
01:10:46,279 --> 01:10:46,800
forty three?

1589
01:10:47,199 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, like so.

1590
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 1: Oksees was well, they were like fifty three and a

1591
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:52,920
half award and they were like one of the easiest

1592
01:10:53,279 --> 01:10:53,880
overs for me.

1593
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:54,800
Speaker 2: And yet look at.

1594
01:10:54,760 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 1: All the time that Holme Grin and Isaiah Hartenstein missed,

1595
01:10:57,479 --> 01:11:00,720
Alex Caruso missed some time. We've had quibbles their offense

1596
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:03,520
at points aside from Shay, and they're just not like

1597
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:05,479
almost eleven wins over their projection.

1598
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:08,399
Speaker 3: Well, how about this one. If you exclude like the

1599
01:11:08,479 --> 01:11:13,239
catastrophe teams meaning the Sixers and the Pelicans, the Jazz

1600
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:17,039
have the miss they're over under on the negative side

1601
01:11:17,039 --> 01:11:19,800
by more than anyone else. So it's like clearly coming

1602
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:21,800
into the year, everybody's like the Jazz are gonna do

1603
01:11:21,800 --> 01:11:23,960
it again, They're gonna win too much, and then they're

1604
01:11:24,000 --> 01:11:26,880
gonna have to pivot. Like nope, they they understood the

1605
01:11:26,880 --> 01:11:29,720
assignment finally, for in year three of the rebuild, they

1606
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:32,560
just they they really were bad from the jump and

1607
01:11:32,640 --> 01:11:36,359
stayed bad in defiance of expectations that they would like

1608
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:37,960
Chicago bulls it a little bit.

1609
01:11:39,119 --> 01:11:41,359
Speaker 1: Do you do you know who did not understand the assignment?

1610
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:44,800
Who's that the Minnesota Timberwolves. Only missing by four and

1611
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:47,880
a half isn't egregious, But depending on the day, you

1612
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:49,840
could convince me that they're gonna miss it by twenty

1613
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:52,239
and a half or exceed it by ten and a half.

1614
01:11:52,319 --> 01:11:55,680
They have one of the best point differentials against top

1615
01:11:55,720 --> 01:11:59,399
ten teams in the league, their top five, and yet

1616
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:02,079
they have a losing record in those games. And then

1617
01:12:02,119 --> 01:12:06,880
overall they have underperformed. Their win total has underperformed relative

1618
01:12:06,920 --> 01:12:09,279
to their point differential more than any team in the

1619
01:12:09,319 --> 01:12:12,560
league this year. They are the classic. Maybe not classic

1620
01:12:12,600 --> 01:12:15,239
because I feel like they're reinventing ways to cut your

1621
01:12:15,279 --> 01:12:18,199
heart out, but they play up in big games, it

1622
01:12:18,199 --> 01:12:20,960
feels like and then they are they play down the

1623
01:12:21,039 --> 01:12:23,640
level of their opponent, or if they have leads in

1624
01:12:23,680 --> 01:12:25,560
the fourth quarter and crunch time, just building out big

1625
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:28,760
leads in general? Is there a team that you trust

1626
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:30,840
less to maintain those leads?

1627
01:12:30,920 --> 01:12:33,560
Speaker 2: Right? Like maybe Miami a little bit, but I think

1628
01:12:33,600 --> 01:12:35,439
Minnesota would have to be the answer here.

1629
01:12:35,600 --> 01:12:38,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a last I don't know if it's

1630
01:12:38,239 --> 01:12:40,119
the last one. But the one that strikes me as

1631
01:12:40,159 --> 01:12:43,119
interesting is didn't was it this year that we had

1632
01:12:43,119 --> 01:12:45,880
the Atlanta over as like, oh, that's an easy over?

1633
01:12:46,079 --> 01:12:48,880
Like what Jalen Johnson's good? They got Dyson Daniels, he

1634
01:12:48,920 --> 01:12:52,520
fits with Trey Okong, will be better DeAndre Hunter like,

1635
01:12:52,960 --> 01:12:56,199
and they're still going over. But that's despite by three

1636
01:12:56,199 --> 01:12:58,880
and a half wins. That's despite Johnson going down for

1637
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:02,399
the year, and that's despite like Capella being so bad

1638
01:13:02,399 --> 01:13:05,399
he loses his job. And that's despite trading Hunter away

1639
01:13:05,800 --> 01:13:08,880
and doing the like tax ducking deal at the deadline

1640
01:13:08,880 --> 01:13:11,199
that we you know, like that, for them to still

1641
01:13:11,239 --> 01:13:14,000
go over by that much just speaks to how insanely

1642
01:13:14,079 --> 01:13:16,319
low they're over under was to begin with?

1643
01:13:16,920 --> 01:13:18,319
Speaker 1: Did it for the nets of being seven and a

1644
01:13:18,359 --> 01:13:20,600
half over? But you know, the final team for me

1645
01:13:20,680 --> 01:13:24,119
that stands out, I like, depending on the day. Again,

1646
01:13:24,199 --> 01:13:26,439
it feels like the Boston Celtics are on the verge

1647
01:13:26,439 --> 01:13:29,239
of total implosion and they're just this sixty win team

1648
01:13:29,279 --> 01:13:31,399
outperforming their win projection by two and a half. I

1649
01:13:31,399 --> 01:13:34,159
had the under for them, I believe, because I was just, Oh,

1650
01:13:34,199 --> 01:13:36,319
they want a title, They're gonna try and conserve energy,

1651
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:39,119
and they did dealt Like Jalen Brown's been battling injuries,

1652
01:13:39,239 --> 01:13:41,840
Christoph Sporzingis has missed a ton of time, and there

1653
01:13:41,840 --> 01:13:45,439
have been in perfections with jow holiday shooting, Jalen Brown's shooting,

1654
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:48,119
and yet yeah, Peyton Pritchard stepping up certainly helps.

1655
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:50,199
Speaker 2: There's still just this elite team.

1656
01:13:50,279 --> 01:13:54,399
Speaker 1: And I can't bring myself to like finagle any sort

1657
01:13:54,399 --> 01:13:56,520
of panic for the Boston Celtics. And I find like

1658
01:13:56,920 --> 01:14:01,079
one of our mutual friends who's a Warriors fan, descends

1659
01:14:01,279 --> 01:14:05,720
into existential crisis anytime something goes remotely wrong with the Warriors.

1660
01:14:05,520 --> 01:14:07,880
Speaker 2: And I just have no empathy for that.

1661
01:14:08,279 --> 01:14:10,960
Speaker 1: And I'm similar with the Boston Celtics, where if you're concerned,

1662
01:14:11,000 --> 01:14:13,640
like why did the Celtics suck? Or why isn't Joe

1663
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:15,680
Mizzoula doing this or like, oh, what are they doing

1664
01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:16,560
with these lineups?

1665
01:14:16,600 --> 01:14:19,399
Speaker 2: I'm just like, like, what are we doing? Right?

1666
01:14:21,039 --> 01:14:22,720
Speaker 3: I know I said it was the last one. The

1667
01:14:22,840 --> 01:14:24,880
Lakers being on pace to win seven and a half

1668
01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:27,399
more games than they're over under. It's it's I don't

1669
01:14:27,439 --> 01:14:30,279
know what the historic stats are on this, but like

1670
01:14:30,319 --> 01:14:33,199
the Lakers over under is always way too high just

1671
01:14:33,319 --> 01:14:35,560
because that's they're a public team and that's how that

1672
01:14:35,600 --> 01:14:38,399
works for them to smoke it by that much. On

1673
01:14:38,439 --> 01:14:42,880
the positive side, considering like just the general enthusiasm there

1674
01:14:42,880 --> 01:14:46,119
seems to be for the Lakers, pretty pretty impressive. They

1675
01:14:46,239 --> 01:14:48,000
they don't touch the Clippers, who are nine and a

1676
01:14:48,039 --> 01:14:50,720
half over, but still still pretty wild for the Lakers

1677
01:14:50,720 --> 01:14:52,720
to beat it by by that margin.

1678
01:14:53,279 --> 01:14:55,720
Speaker 1: I do have a final one for those interested, because

1679
01:14:55,760 --> 01:14:57,479
this will be the sixty year running. I may miss

1680
01:14:57,479 --> 01:14:59,239
on it, but there's still a chance that I don't.

1681
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:03,439
I hate I picked the under for Memphis. They're currently

1682
01:15:03,520 --> 01:15:07,479
on pace to clear the over despite everything that's happened. Honestly,

1683
01:15:07,560 --> 01:15:09,560
that's kind of there's no other team that I've missed

1684
01:15:09,560 --> 01:15:10,920
for six consecutive years.

1685
01:15:11,520 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 3: There's no you're going to miss it, just fate. Fate

1686
01:15:16,359 --> 01:15:18,720
demands it that you can't be right about the grizzlies,

1687
01:15:18,800 --> 01:15:20,840
so pencil that one in are.

1688
01:15:21,039 --> 01:15:24,159
Speaker 1: Is everybody ready for the reveal of who won Hour

1689
01:15:24,239 --> 01:15:25,359
over Under competition?

1690
01:15:25,479 --> 01:15:25,760
Speaker 3: Is it me?

1691
01:15:26,920 --> 01:15:30,199
Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, actually very quickly. You were fifteen and fifteen.

1692
01:15:30,680 --> 01:15:33,119
Speaker 1: I was fourteen and sixteen with the potential to be

1693
01:15:33,840 --> 01:15:36,359
mine were more unsettled than yours, but fourteen and sixteen.

1694
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:41,079
The winner of the Hardwood Knocks over Under competition this

1695
01:15:41,199 --> 01:15:47,119
year is McKinley C went twenty and ten. So reach

1696
01:15:47,159 --> 01:15:49,319
out to me and our discord will set you up

1697
01:15:49,359 --> 01:15:52,600
with the merch schedule, the guest hosting thing based on

1698
01:15:52,640 --> 01:15:53,319
your availability.

1699
01:15:53,439 --> 01:15:53,960
Speaker 2: McKinley C.

1700
01:15:54,840 --> 01:15:56,520
Speaker 1: If you're not in discord for some reason, if you

1701
01:15:56,640 --> 01:15:58,199
just found this through I think we had it on

1702
01:15:58,239 --> 01:16:01,720
our YouTube, maybe message me on the socials. But we

1703
01:16:01,880 --> 01:16:04,439
the top five, so shout out to Adam in second

1704
01:16:04,439 --> 01:16:07,479
place eighteen and twelve. Then we had a three way

1705
01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:12,000
tie at seventeen and thirteen. In third place, Austin went

1706
01:16:12,079 --> 01:16:15,359
seventeen and thirteen. I apologize in advance because I'm going

1707
01:16:15,399 --> 01:16:19,520
to butcher the pronunciation here. I'm sure Chemo ti Mana

1708
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:23,640
went seventeen and thirteen, and then Nicolcha went seventeen and

1709
01:16:23,680 --> 01:16:27,880
thirteen as well. So that's like, I'm surprised that we

1710
01:16:27,920 --> 01:16:29,720
didn't have This season was kind of wild. I thought

1711
01:16:29,720 --> 01:16:32,880
we'd have someone who went like twenty three and seven

1712
01:16:33,000 --> 01:16:35,760
or something, but strong showings here. We didn't have anyone

1713
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:38,439
go worse than eleven and nineteen. We will not be

1714
01:16:38,479 --> 01:16:42,640
announcing that person publicly, of course, so but grant you

1715
01:16:42,640 --> 01:16:44,680
know what, I'm content. I was neither last nor the

1716
01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:46,560
best it would have been. I don't want to be

1717
01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:48,800
first place because how do I guest host our own show?

1718
01:16:49,079 --> 01:16:52,239
Speaker 3: Real It'd be tough. You can't wear both hats. Impossible.

1719
01:16:53,319 --> 01:16:55,279
Speaker 2: But shout out to everyone who participated. You guys are

1720
01:16:55,319 --> 01:16:59,239
the real MVP. So mckinlee, c Adam.

1721
01:16:59,000 --> 01:17:02,720
Speaker 1: Austin, Keemu, Time Mana, and Nicole Jay shout out to

1722
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:05,079
you guys and McKinley c. Get in touch with me,

1723
01:17:05,199 --> 01:17:07,279
preferably on discord. If you messing me on Blue Sky,

1724
01:17:07,479 --> 01:17:10,479
Twitter or whatever, we will set you up with all

1725
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:12,960
this stuff. Thanks for everyone who participated, and look, I

1726
01:17:13,119 --> 01:17:15,000
have another reason to join our discord. You get to

1727
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:17,079
participate in fun shit like this, and if you win,

1728
01:17:17,760 --> 01:17:19,560
you get called out and if you lose, no one's

1729
01:17:19,560 --> 01:17:22,960
ever really gonna know right live, which then that that's okay.

1730
01:17:22,800 --> 01:17:23,920
Speaker 3: It's a no lose scenario.

1731
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:26,600
Speaker 4: And like we're not hard to beat?

1732
01:17:26,760 --> 01:17:29,199
Speaker 3: Is the other thing? Like I don't know, I don't

1733
01:17:29,239 --> 01:17:31,479
want to know what percentage of people that submitted are

1734
01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:35,159
over unders beat us. It's it's it's probably higher than

1735
01:17:35,159 --> 01:17:36,960
we'd like to but that but that's good. That means

1736
01:17:36,960 --> 01:17:39,560
we have a we have an astute audience.

1737
01:17:39,840 --> 01:17:42,520
Speaker 1: I think you can feel comfortable knowing that your fifteen

1738
01:17:42,560 --> 01:17:46,640
and fifteen record positioned you in the top ten. I

1739
01:17:46,680 --> 01:17:48,520
would like to let you know that I dropped outside

1740
01:17:48,520 --> 01:17:52,279
the top fifteen. So it's a little bit marting cup there,

1741
01:17:52,439 --> 01:17:55,319
fourteen and sixteen versus fifteen and fifteen. So it's just

1742
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:56,880
those are those are tough?

1743
01:17:57,199 --> 01:17:58,880
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, why even do it if you're just

1744
01:17:58,880 --> 01:18:01,079
gonna go fifteen and fifteen? Like I could have just

1745
01:18:01,079 --> 01:18:05,159
flipped the coin thirty times, Like you are.

1746
01:18:05,119 --> 01:18:07,560
Speaker 1: Basically the Atlanta Hawks of the over Runner, Like, yeah,

1747
01:18:07,560 --> 01:18:09,680
you're so aggressively mid in this well.

1748
01:18:09,600 --> 01:18:12,399
Speaker 3: But like I tried, so who's aggressively mid? But like

1749
01:18:12,640 --> 01:18:13,359
really tried?

1750
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:17,199
Speaker 1: I don't know, I do think in retrospect, this ended

1751
01:18:17,279 --> 01:18:19,279
up being one of the tougher years for the over

1752
01:18:19,399 --> 01:18:21,640
Unders because there is parody, but there was just all

1753
01:18:21,720 --> 01:18:25,319
these massive audibles in curveball.

1754
01:18:24,880 --> 01:18:27,039
Speaker 3: Throughout the league. Yeah, good times.

1755
01:18:27,239 --> 01:18:28,840
Speaker 2: Are you ready to take us out of here? Yep?

1756
01:18:28,920 --> 01:18:32,199
Speaker 3: Thanks everybody again for participating in our over unders. Thanks

1757
01:18:32,239 --> 01:18:34,960
for beating us. Those of you that we beat, deal

1758
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:38,520
with it. It feels pretty good over here at fifteen

1759
01:18:38,560 --> 01:18:43,359
and fifteen. Thanks for listening, Thanks for watching. Remember rate review, subscribe,

1760
01:18:43,520 --> 01:18:46,000
join our discord. So, as Dan says, if you participating

1761
01:18:46,039 --> 01:18:49,399
stuff like that links for YouTube podcast description, tell your friends,

1762
01:18:49,520 --> 01:18:52,199
tell your enemies, make sure you're leaving comments on YouTube.

1763
01:18:52,479 --> 01:18:54,279
Let us know what you got wrong, just to make

1764
01:18:54,399 --> 01:18:57,680
us feel better. So we're not alone out here in

1765
01:18:57,720 --> 01:19:00,439
admitting our faults. And yeah, make sure that you shout

1766
01:19:00,439 --> 01:19:02,399
out Frank Miltina and apologized to jaredy