Speaker 1: We've been bullish since the break back above sixteen two
seventy five to sixty, so we've seen ninety two thousand,
six hundred and eighty five per coin. A lot of
other bullish calls in here. However, we did just hold
an exhaustion level up here between at one o eight
two oh five to one oh nine sixty and we
held that with a uh one oh eight nine sixty
high and have rolled over five thousand, six hundred and
thirty five so far.
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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry lets Michael Moore. More
Analytics is with us now. If you're listening on the podcast,
if you go to the show notes, click the link,
you can download all the relevant charts and follow along.
Speaker 4: Michael. It's great to have you back on.
Speaker 3: Markets have definitely been hyperkinetic recently. Why don't we start
out with gold and get through bitcoin all the good
stuff oil.
Speaker 4: Tell us where we're.
Speaker 1: At that good Okay, so the gold. The last time
we were on it's been a little while, but where
was in July, and just wanted to update you on
some of the larger calls.
Speaker 4: That have been made. Back then, I had said that.
Speaker 1: The the solid trade above twenty seven forty eight to
forty projects separated one hundred and fifty one minimum nine
hundred and fifty four plus maximum. And that's when we
were trading down around the twenty five two area. We'd
already reached a peak at twenty five sixty, but we
went on to attain another two hundred and sixty per
ounce after you and Ed talked. So a lot those
bull calls are all on Hoole currently, a lot of
different levels of bull calls. We got barrished a couple
of days ago. I'm dropping down to a sixty minute chart.
Can you see my screen?
Speaker 4: Okay, yep, we see it fine.
Speaker 1: We got barish when we broke that down below this
line right here, that was the trade back below twenty
seven forty five ninety. We've seen ninety nine point eight
of pressure from that, and then other bearish calls below
twenty six eighty five twenty and twenty six seventy three fifty.
And now we're sitting right on top of another formation
right here, a decent break below that formation. We'll also
project this downward. That's who will come in twenty six
forty eighty plus one per hour starting at one twenty pm.
Speaker 4: Do you think we're still going higher in jail role.
Speaker 1: It's still bullish, but all the bullishness is on hold
right now. Currently i'mbearish, and I expect us this will
continue to come off. If this was the trade back
up above this formation eight here, which is going to
come in at twenty six eighty thirty plus one point
eight per hour starting at one twenty pm, that would
word of renewed strength and a possible.
Speaker 4: Run back for the highs again. Okay, interesting, Interesting, So.
Speaker 1: When I jump to the S and P five hundred, Yeah.
Speaker 4: Let's let's go to the S and P and see
what we got there.
Speaker 1: So the SMP has had some great moves in here.
We have been bullish. You've done interviews with me a
number of times over the years. If you go back
and look at past interviews with me, you'll know that
I've been bullish since holding a macro exhaustion level at
thirty five to thirty five oh two, and we've rallied
two thousand, six hundred and forty four handles zero point
five handles since then, and a lot of other bullish
calls in here that I've been updating for a while
has been the break above twenty six seventy eight to fifty,
which I said would project this upward two hundred and
forty minimum five hundred and seventy plus maximum. We've attained
four hundred and sixty eight to that so far, so
we haven't quite hit the maximum yet. And currently we're
in between two formations.
Speaker 4: As we speak.
Speaker 1: The break above the upper one right here, which is
going to come in at sixty one fifty one thirty
one one. It's fourteen per hour starting at one thirty pm,
that will project this upward fifty handles minimum, and the
maximum is not really determinable, but should definitely take us
out and take up the highs. We fail back down
through the lower line right here, which is going to
come in at sixty one and sixteen twenty six plus
five per hour starting at thirty PM. That will project
this downward thirty thirty handles minimum seventy plus maximum. And
by the way, when I say seventy plus maximum, might
know that's confusing. But certain formations have certain projections. But
I say plus because obviously if you're turning in that direction,
you could see far more.
Speaker 4: Sure, I get that.
Speaker 1: Okay, you want to take a look at the bitcoin
and then we'll go to the futures.
Speaker 4: Yes, just take a look at bitcoin. Elie is big
on bitcoin, all right.
Speaker 1: Well, Bitcoin, if you go back and look at some
of the past interviews with you, you can see where
I've made some of these other longer term calls. We've
been bullish since the break back above sixteen two seventy
five to sixty, so we've seen ninety two thousand, six
hundred and eighty five per coin. A lot of other
bullish calls in here. However, we did just hold an
exhaustion level up here between at one oh eight two
oh five to one oh nine sixty, and we held
that with a one oh eight nine sixty high and
have rolled over five thousand, six hundred and thirty five
so far. If we were to fail back down through
this formation that's going to warn a decent pressure. Decent
pressure meaning likely multiple day that's going to come in
at one oh one, two two three plus twenty six
per hour starting at one o'clock PM Eastern standard type.
We break below this lower formation right here, which is
going to come in at ninety eight five twenty five
plus twenty one per hour. That'll project this downward to
eleven thousand plus per cord. And just so the viewership understands,
an exhaustion area is an area that they that the
market can probably halt its trending in that direction and
then start a bearish correction. Sometimes it'll hold temporarily, sometimes
it will cause a full bearessh correction.
Speaker 4: So we're only a.
Speaker 1: Piece of it now, but if it does see a
full barsh correction, it should be at least double what this.
Speaker 4: Is right now.
Speaker 1: You know, probably down here to the ninety seven five
hundred area.
Speaker 3: And so, what do you think it's upside is here
at this particular point, we're like one hundred and five
thousand or so. I think it's at right.
Speaker 1: In one right now?
Speaker 4: What do you mean?
Speaker 1: What do I think the upside is? I mean it could.
I mean, I'm still overall bullish solid well that's on
still overaw bullish and bullish right now. But within that bullishness,
we're seeing a pullback from these highs. If we break
back below this line, all that bullishness goes on hold
and then we're bearish below that. But you know, sky's
a limit on the up side. I mean, who knows
where this is going to be. We're in brand new
territory up here, so but the nast places above that,
i'd be aware possible.
Speaker 4: Actually never mind.
Speaker 3: So it's the best way to invest in bitcoin in
your opinion, you're buying options on.
Speaker 4: It now or how do you do it?
Speaker 1: Well, the bitcoin futures are quite large, uh so you'd
have to have a lot of capital to really trade this.
You can tread the minis or the micros. I believe
the micro is on these, so you can I think
trade one tenth of it. So, and the benefit of
doing that as opposed to just buying some other coin
out there is this is an exchange regulated futures market,
so that's backed by the clearing houses that it's packed
by the exchange, and then it's backed by the US government.
So it's liquid, and if you have an account set
up and you're trading this, you can get out of
this almost instantaneously on the upside or the downside if
you run.
Speaker 4: We like liquidity, of course, But.
Speaker 3: You know, I realized we're just doing technical analysis here.
We're not looking at the fundamentals. Not that there are
any fundamentals for for bitcoin, it's trade strictly on emotion, right,
I mean it's not, there's no like I mean, there
are fundamentals in that there can only be so many
bitcoins mined, right, But in terms of there actually being
a fundamental of like you know, production and income statements
and cost of goods sold, cost of services, this is
strictly an emotional product here, right.
Speaker 1: I couldn't speak too much to that, to be honest
with you, because I don't really even look at the fundamentals.
I don't look at the fundamentals that much. There aren't any,
even if the energies and the gold and it's not
that those things are not important. The fundamentals, for instance,
in gold or energy, or the S and P even whatever,
are the underpinnings of what drives the market.
Speaker 4: Period.
Speaker 1: That said, the technicals will get you in on those
moves ninety percent of the time earlier than what the
fundamental picture will avail itself to be, gotcha, And it
will also get you out of those moves ninety percent
of the time earlier. Also, setting aside news based events,
THEWS based events, I mean right before Donald Trump was elected,
that evening, before the smps had come off.
Speaker 4: Actually, I'll just show you real quick, that was.
Speaker 1: Right here, right here, broken back above this line. And
this was on eleven to five on the November fifth,
at eleven thirty, and I'd sent out on my Postmark
podcast that I just turned bullish and I think got
elected right after that. And this is not a political
statement or anything, but obviously the market showed you what
it thought of that election as far as deemed good
for businesses or not.
Speaker 3: So it was in the market saying all along though
that he was going to get elected.
Speaker 1: Well, no, I mean this had been sliding down here,
you know, for a while. I mean, I mean, I
mean from October twenty ninth down into November fourth, the
market was in a lied, in a pretty steep one.
But again this was also technically based. You know, we
broke below this line right here. I got barished, and
we got slam breck down into here, and we held
major support levels, and then when we broke back above
this line, that's when I got bullish. So again, it's
I'm not trying to sound irresponsible about saying that I
don't pay attention to the fundamentals. It's just that I
pay attention to the technicals, and the technicals are a
representation of all the knowledge of all the traders trading
that market at that time, and they usually have a
better handle and feeling fundamentals than anybody else does. So
the technicals, they they're just more reliable to me. Over time,
I've been able to make far more better production.
Speaker 4: I get it.
Speaker 3: I couldn't agree with you more. I'm a big believer
in there cycles and such. So so do you feel
like after the election the sentiment really changed?
Speaker 4: What's that?
Speaker 1: Do I think?
Speaker 3: What after the election the sentiment and the market really changed?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the market. I mean you can't
just say, well, it goes up for certain presidents and
down for other ones, because that's that's not really true.
Speaker 4: I mean, this is yeah, that's not realistic, you know,
it's but.
Speaker 1: Just short term. It was definitive as to what it
thought about his election or other parties not being elected.
So that was a pretty definitive. I mean, the market
would not have just rallied just for the heck of it,
not that much. I mean you could say it would
rally because the uncertainty of what's going on in the
market is taken out of the way. I can understand that.
But that was that's pretty strong. That's a lot of
people putting a lot of money back into the market
because of their confidence. So you want to take a
look at the crewd real quick.
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's take a look at crude.
Speaker 1: Sure, So the crude oil has really been chopping around.
You can see this consolidation phase we've been in here
really since the beginning of October and then a pretty
tight band between you know, sixty five of a barrel
and seventy.
Speaker 4: One to barrow.
Speaker 1: We just turned bullish today, and just on an overall basis,
we have been bullish since April twenty ninth, twenty twenty.
From fifteen dollars in thirty seven a barrow, we'd rallied
one hundred and fifteen point one to three a barrow,
and a lot of other bullish calls in there, that's
all on hold, and then on a Then we got
bearish on the break below one nineteen fifteen, and that
brought in fifty five point fifty more a pressure. So
a lot of other higher time frame calls are on hold.
We had just gotten barished yesterday because we'd broken below
this formation right up in here around seventy fourteen.
Speaker 4: That says right here.
Speaker 1: Oh, actually we held exhaustion up here first at seventy
one even and then rolled over twenty nineteen cents. Then
the break below seventy fourteen brought in a dollar thirty
three of pressure before holding this exhaustion level right here
at sixty eight eighty five with a sixty eight eighty
one low and bouncing. And now that we've taken out
this formation on the upside, this is further bullish. Now
that line's going to come in at seventy sixteen as
of two o'clock moves up very slightly. A further break
above this line above should also bring in strength that's
going to come in at seventy eighty one plus two
per hour starting at six o'clock PM.
Speaker 3: All right, So any other markets you think we should
cover that might be might give us an idea where
we're heading.
Speaker 1: Yes, by the way, just as an overall standpoint on
the energies and the natural gas, and this is political,
I think that in general you should see without any
major blow ups in the Middle East, I would expect
that the pricing would come down because under Trump, I
mean he pumped put out a lot of natural gas,
a lot of home production of the energies, and brought
a lot of that pricing down, especially for gas line
out stuff. You know what, I thought, Frank, this formation
down here, this is a pretty significant formation that comes
into sixty six ninety five and moves up very slowly,
maybe just one a day. So I really that'll project
this downward at least four dollars barrel and as much
hand off.
Speaker 3: So really, Michael, I saw a really interesting stat that
during Trump's term in office, the oil production and that
gas went up forty between forty and fifty percent, And
interestingly enough, during Biden's term it continued to go up,
but it was only up two and a half or
three percent production. So if we see another fifteen to
twenty percent increase in production, which I think is realistic
because one of the things you know, like I said,
we're getting it to fundamentals, which is not your thing.
Speaker 4: But I think you.
Speaker 3: Can see it in the charts, is that the administration,
the current one, put a lot of pressure on banks
and markets not to finance drilling, and that's all going
to be gone here. I mean you can see the
handwriting on the wall, which Exon and the big oil
companies are happy restricting production because they know they'll get
higher prices. But the wildcatters out there, the smaller producers,
the frackers, now they have a new process called refracking.
They go back to the fract well after it stopped producing,
they refrack it. It produces even more than it induced
when it was originally fracked. So if they've got the capital,
then we're going to see potentially tremendous expansion.
Speaker 4: In oil produced.
Speaker 3: Right now, we're producing a record thirteen million plus barrels
a day in the United States. Maybe we'll get up
to twenty.
Speaker 1: I mean, it would just be a huge boom for US.
I mean, does it make any sense for us, Like
why would we be depending on other countries for oh, well, yeah,
all the South American countries in the Midwest, I mean
in I'm sorry the Far East and UH and Russia.
I mean, why, it's just it's it's ridiculous and now
was that. But those are real jobs for people, not
jobs that are from the government.
Speaker 3: Those are six figure jobs exactly. Even the guy that
washes the car as the trucks is making close to
six figures in the Permeaton basin and up in the
up in North Dakota too.
Speaker 4: It'll be a boom.
Speaker 3: Plus the potential Keystone pipeline another boom for oil production
and gas. You know, we're just our own worst enemy
a lot of times, Michael, You know.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Incidentally, if you notice here in I won't get into
the unletted gas fully today, but we won't have so
much time. But I had said in here that on
five we aft the significant Polish reversal below this one.
Speaker 4: Right here, I said that I.
Speaker 1: Know we broke above a significant formation at a dollar
twenty three oh seven. This projected this up for twenty
six cents minimum, ninety six cents plus maximum. And it
just so happened that I made that prediction right before
Biden got into office and right after. You can see
what I mean. This is the effect right here. If
people want to know, with the effect of policy, and
again I'm not trying to be political, but this is
effect of policy of shutting all that production and stuff. Yeah,
I mean, you know, you're gasoline at the pump went
from a dollar twenty five a gallon the four dollars
and thirty two cents a gallon.
Speaker 3: And then with a lower oil price, then we can
build rebuild the strategic oil reserve which they've been using
to manipulate prices. And really, Michael, the strategic oil preserve reserve,
it's good for like forty days worth of oil supply
in the US.
Speaker 4: It's nothing, you know, a billion barrels, it's nothing.
Speaker 1: Why would we not have that security? Why is it
being new away with their own security.
Speaker 4: It's just ridiculous, you know.
Speaker 3: And the Greek tragedies, you're your own worst enemy and
in this country we got everybody else's enemy and ourselves.
How are we going to survive this? Hopefully things turn
around now, Michael, tell us where we find you on
the web.
Speaker 1: Okay, let me just pull that up real quick. You
can go to more Analytics dot com. That's spelled m
R analytics dot com.
Speaker 3: Link is in the show notes. This interview. Don't forget
the link to all these charts is in the show notes.
Speaker 4: Just click it.
Speaker 3: I've got it in a dropbox link. You'll get it
right away. And Michael appreciate you coming on and questions
comments for Michael write need email kl at Carrie LUTs
dot com. And the link to more Analytics dot com
is in the show notes to this interview on.
Speaker 4: Financial Survival Network dot com.
Speaker 3: While you're there, we just ask that you sign up
for your free newsletter, like sixty thousand other FSN community
members have. Michael always appreciate you coming by. We'll talk
to you again soon. Thank you very much.
Speaker 1: I appreciate Gared.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your
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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
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Speaker 4: Clos