Speaker 1: Two one.
Speaker 2: You're welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I'm your host, Andy Lang.
It's a brand new week. We've got a loaded show
to kick it off. Johnny the Greek is gonna be
here with the Steam Report, crack Man's gonna drop us
off an MLB prop and we're also going to talk
about the FanDuel the big parlays. When FanDuel is saying
now that they are limiting people that play this play
the same plays.
Speaker 3: I have a lot of.
Speaker 1: Thoughts on this one, so we're going to talk about that.
Speaker 2: Brian Power is going to break down the Giants and
the Diamondbacks. We got big info, we got sharp plays.
Let's get it started, all right, Dan, we go back
to Friday. We had some really close guesses on the
exact score. Did we have a winner on Friday's game
for the exact score and the winner of the way?
Speaker 3: Close?
Speaker 4: But no cigar, Andy, close.
Speaker 1: So close.
Speaker 2: Jason Hamilton had Seattle six five and the final score.
Speaker 1: Was seven to six. That's a hell of a guest.
Speaker 5: Really, all I know is whoever finally wins this swag bag,
It's gonna be one hell of a prize because it's
just getting larger.
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, absolutely, Uh so we're gonna pick a game
on the board today, real simple. You tell us the
winner in the exact score in the comments below, and
you're gonna win some free wager tax. But we're gonna
get one this week. You guys are way too close
to these scores to not hit one.
Speaker 1: So all right, let's get started. You guys know what
to do.
Speaker 2: Hit that like button, subscribe to the wager Talk YouTube
channel and let's get started with Gianni and we're talking
the steamer port. Gianni, I'm guessing it's all Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1: There's no w NBA. We don't even have.
Speaker 2: UFC this week. Like it's a it's a slow week.
So we got to pick our spots. And like we say,
we only need a few plays that we can take
advantage of the profits.
Speaker 1: So what are you seeing on this Monday so far?
Speaker 6: You simply got to be selective.
Speaker 7: There's nothing wrong with that, unless you have to choose
from the more selective you have to be. They're still
gonna be value on the board. The participants are the
same people that bet every day, are still going to
continue betting every day. With that said, you know, I
know a lot of sharp guys that I work with
every day. This is when they take their vacations.
Speaker 4: In July.
Speaker 6: This is the month everybody takes their vacations.
Speaker 7: Mostly around I remember, for the longest time I did
it at the All Star break.
Speaker 6: Every year.
Speaker 7: All Star Break was when I would go on my vacation.
You know, now I work three sixty five, so I
really just don't do that. But you know, there was
a time where even I took off. With that said,
that's why you see, it's a lot slower, But when
that happens, it offers a lot of value, even to
more recreational betters, because you don't have every wise guy
on the planet sitting in front of five screens trying
to pick off every road number that's out there, every
inefficiency that's out there. So if anything, I think there's opportunity.
But again, you just got to be selective.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 1: That's it. What are we seeing with money?
Speaker 2: You mentioned, but probably a lot of people on vacation,
maybe some of the big timers.
Speaker 1: Are taking off. Are we seeing any signific line movement?
Speaker 2: And if we're not, if you get line movement, that
gives us that gives us some real opportunity.
Speaker 6: Today on Monday, it's been dogs.
Speaker 7: Four dogs that are sticking out all getting h sendicate money.
Nine fifty four Pittsburgh at plus one ten nine fifty six,
Arizona plus one thirty nine fifty eight Toronto plus one
thirty nine sixty five Cincinnati plus one sixty Those are
four dogs that immediately took some money, and then there
was some follow through as well. A couple totals got hit,
but not any big line movement, like you know, just
picking off some of the eight and a half before
it goes to nine, some of the seven and a
half before it goes to seven. That kind of stuff
that you see each and every day, but nothing that
I would confirm as a legit move this early in
the day.
Speaker 6: That's why I just wanted to stick the sides.
Speaker 7: With what I share, because again it's a small board
and I don't pick up as the week goes on.
But it's just one of those days where it's a
little bit slower, not a bad thing coming off such
a busy weekend with all the UFC stuff, all the baseball,
the end of NBA Finals and the NHL Finals, So
it's a good January. July is a good month because
you do you got baseball every day and then WNBA
and some of those smaller markets where you can still
do damage. And as you get ready and prepare for
the football season, which I know everybody's excited about, and
that's now just right around the corner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen for us, it's a huge morning. It's first
first day at Wimbledon. We have seventeen plays.
Speaker 1: In actually today, so oh yeah, oh yeah.
Speaker 2: We find that the first couple days of these majors
are where it's at. You have so many matches to
pick from, you have so many like really big mismatches,
and you'll see like we'll probably be fired away Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
maybe Thursday, and then the closer you get to the finals.
Speaker 1: There's just no value.
Speaker 2: It's it's the best players against the best players. You've
got injuries, you've got fatigue. So yeah, we come out
hot and heavy in the first few days of wimbled
and I saw.
Speaker 6: A couple moves real quickly.
Speaker 7: It's it's hard to find the best when it's this
early in the tournament.
Speaker 6: It's funny.
Speaker 7: The other day I got Arthur Arthur Kasole Arthur Kasle
against Adam Walton. It took me about twelve minutes to
find that matchup. They didn't have a bet number on it.
It's like you got to remind these bettingstons against dude,
add rotation numbers, add rotation numbers. Don't just put the
name out there when there's two hundred match offs.
Speaker 6: It took me forever to find it.
Speaker 7: By the time I got down, I was found like
I was able to get down at like minus one
seventy five at minus one eighty.
Speaker 6: But yeah, I see a lot of the sharps.
Speaker 7: That's what they do, exactly what you're doing, where they
take advantage of Wimbledon early early, early in the tournament,
and as the tournament progresses, you get less and less
positions because again the lines titan, which it's supposed to do.
Speaker 2: Do you hit your five percent in the UFC correct?
I see some people at nice work, Nice work.
Speaker 3: What was it? Oh?
Speaker 7: I love Delgatto bro I put eighty five percent of
my UFC on the line bankroll in the show on him.
Speaker 6: I just thought.
Speaker 7: There's just no better bet on the board, regardless of outcome.
I felt confident. And the worst part is it was
actually a worse bet than the week before on my
five percent that lost. Honestly, if I'm grading it from
a sharp better's perspective, it actually was a worse bet.
It just won because the truth is I didn't get
any real closing line value. There was so much money
coming in on the dog that I had to be
the product more or less of good luck and pick
the right sign because I didn't get much line value
at all. In fact, I bet it at a worst
line at what it closed that and that's not a
good position to be in. That's not betting from any
position to strength. So I'm glad it worked out for us,
and I'm glad I cashed a big ticket. But the
truth of the matter is the week prior, where I
had Jamal Hill as my five percent that lost, I
thought going into that fight that was a much better
bet because I had him on even money and he
closed at minus one forty five close to one fifty
at some shops. So for me, I'm like, I did
my job a lot better on that bet than I
did on the Saturday's You havec bet. But it tells
you you're gonna get graded by your results at the end.
Speaker 6: Of the day. We all say the right things.
Speaker 7: We all you know, everybody on sports betting social media,
on Twitter and Instagram, they all say the right things
as far as value and bet sizing and all that.
Speaker 6: We all know what to say.
Speaker 7: But doing it's a completely different thing because you see
it so much in this industry. Like people are like, oh,
you know, they don't like big games and promoting big
locks and all that. But you move a four percent
play into a five percent play, and all of a sudden,
you're gonna sell twenty x the amount of packages because
you move a thing one percent bigger. Your BET's now
one percent bigger, and that's gonna make people think now
you have a lot.
Speaker 6: And it's the same thing.
Speaker 7: With closing line value, Like you could place a great bet,
prove that it's a great bet, but if it loses,
no one cares. They just want to cash a ticket
at the end of the day. And if that's your
your out, you know your approach. I'm telling you you're
gonna get disappointed. You're going to continue losing money. If
that's all you care about is the result in the
short term, you're gonna get buried because you're going to
keep tasting that short term gratification that we all do,
and that burns us all. You gotta gotta learn to
think long term. You got to be able to grade
yourself hard. And like I said, great Goda got the
job done. He looked like the right side. He finished
the fight for us in thirty seconds. He was never
in danger of us losing that bet. But I didn't
get any respect from the betting market at all. In fact,
it was the opposite. It looked like a bad bet
heading into it. So again, like I.
Speaker 6: Like to keep it real.
Speaker 7: And when I have a great bet and I'm beating
the market, I pat myself on the back. But when
I place a bet and I'm not beating the market
and I still happen to win, I gotta, you know,
chalk that up as the gambling gods gave me a
winner at that time, like it did me a song.
Speaker 6: Yeah, kind of like now for the bad beat, they
made one up for me.
Speaker 7: Because again that's just how I grade my work, because
I know if I can do that andy over and.
Speaker 6: Over and over again, there's nothing they could do. I'm
gonna win money. It's like card accounting.
Speaker 7: As long as I don't bet size incorrectly and I
make the right move every single time.
Speaker 6: There's nothing they could do. I'm gonna take their money.
Speaker 7: And if you could keep beating the closing line value,
there's nothing they can do. You're gonna take their money
as long as again you bet size correctly, which is key.
Speaker 2: Well, I will tell you this, I love fights like that.
First off, you know, congratulations on Delgado. I'm coming right
back and betting Hyder a Mill in his next one.
They're gonna give him a step down in competition, and
it's probably gonna be someone he steam rolls through. I
love some of these guys when they when they're like
undefeated and they get get a loss, or like they're
on a win streak and they get a lost, UFC
bumps them.
Speaker 1: Down and they come back more more motivated than ever.
Speaker 2: I take a look at some of these guys that
are gonna get to step down and competitions, I'll be
I don't know who's gonna fight, but most likely I'll
be betting on on Hyder and Mill.
Speaker 7: So I talked about it, I said a comment from
cam Hier. Bro great job, congratulation, bro. You you doubled
your bank from twenty to forty dollars betting two dollars
a game. God bless you. Good, good job. Stay to
two dollars a game. Don't up that. Do not up that, bro,
until you get that forty to like one hundred dollars.
Then approach it differently. Stay at your two dollars because
now if you jump it up to like four dollars,
because you doubled your bank roll, you now could lose
all that profit with half the production, meaning like you're
now going to be betting double.
Speaker 6: So what it took you.
Speaker 7: To double your bank roll, you could lose in fifty
percent of a negative run because you're now betting.
Speaker 6: Double what you did to get to that point of
one hundred percent return.
Speaker 7: So mathematically, I highly highly recommend you stick to that
two dollars range. Just keep firing two dollars. That way,
if you get cold, you'll still be in action. If
you have an edge, it'll materialize. Keep firing two dollars.
Good job, bro. I love seeing that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, yeah, I couldn't agree more with that. So, Johnny,
what do you have up for clients here on this Monday?
Speaker 6: All right? Nothing up yet?
Speaker 7: Like I said, I'm staying real selective. I got a
couple of baseball players that I have leans on, going
to try to confirm them to put out a package,
but no reason.
Speaker 6: The rush. So far, so good.
Speaker 7: We're about six months in. We got six months to go.
My goal is to be up when December thirty first
rolls around. I'm highly confident that will happen coming off,
you know, a losing year like we had last year,
and I'm just gonna grind. If I find some big bets,
that package will be up, probably with in the next
sixty minutes. Otherwise, subscribers will get what's confirmed, and then
we'll move on to Tuesday's action again. I have no
problems passing. If we don't find value, well, if we do,
it'll be there for sure.
Speaker 1: Love it, Johnny and Greek everyone.
Speaker 2: Let's get this week off to a good start. Johnny,
let's have a great Monday, and we'll see you again tomorrow.
I'm gonna talk to Johnny a little bit later this
week about what to do when you're having one of
your worst months, and full disclosure, that is me June.
We're gonna see what happens these next couple days, but
June's gonna end up being one of the worst months
I've ever had since being at wager Talk. So we'll
talk about it once we get the final numbers. We'll
talk about how we manage the bank role, what you do,
what's the mindset, how do you analyze what happens. So
it's good that we do the show because we can
talk about this. We talk about our winners, and we'll
talk about our losers. And when we talk about our
worst moments, that's when we do all the learning and it.
Speaker 1: Sets us up, sets us up for the future.
Speaker 2: So I'll be talking to Johnny once we get our
final numbers in from June here, let's bring in crack
Man and we're gonna talk little MLB prop and I
got a couple other topics to talk about. We'll talk
about fan duel and we'll actually let's start there.
Speaker 3: Bill.
Speaker 2: There's this story FanDuel and their Terms in Service about
trying to limit groups that are betting the same things,
and they're shutting down accounts.
Speaker 1: With you know, with groups.
Speaker 2: I gotta be honest with somebody that's had FanDuel and
DraftKings for like a decade.
Speaker 1: This isn't new to me.
Speaker 2: Like, like I've had books limited where it's just like
me and some guys I work with that live in
the same city, if you put the same bed in
within a few minutes of each other, We've gotten limited
on some.
Speaker 1: Of these books. So this is not a surprise for me.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of surprised that people are just now realizing this.
Speaker 1: Did you are Were you aware of this?
Speaker 8: Yeah, good morning Andy, first of all, and thanks for
having me on.
Speaker 3: You know, I kind of want to ask to them
a little bit.
Speaker 8: I usually kind of stay away from things until I
know the full story, and it looks like exactly that
that should have been done in this situation. This was
regarding these telegram chats where these parlay guys dub club telegram.
They had like these different chats of people that are
in there together.
Speaker 3: And let's be blunt.
Speaker 8: These aren't sharp syndicate groups. These are Joe publics that
are trying to have a good time. Maybe some parlays
which I never recommend. And what happened here is one
or two guys said, hey, they changed their terms and
conditions and fandel they meanwhile to be blunt, they paid everybody.
So they paid everybody. It may even be a bad
rumor that started. Internally, they haven't acknowledged this, and even
some of the guys that FANDLE said, we don't know
what they've been talking about. We've paid everybody, and it
isn't our terms and conditions. But they've realized that they
make so much money from these type of groups of
this is the seven leg of home run that have
to be hit that day in that game.
Speaker 3: This is almost an impossibility.
Speaker 8: Yes, they lost some money, but the rumor on these
accounts was two point two million. They probably lost a
lot more than that because you have all these people
in there, but eleven dollars parlay to win one hundred thousand,
that's easily gonna, you know, just equal a couple dozen
people and you're over to two point two million. They
probably actually lost even more than that. But I have
not seen anything where someone said, hey, vandal sent me
an email or a text or something saying you won't.
Speaker 3: Be paid on the next one.
Speaker 8: So before we jump on them, i'd have to see
some more facts.
Speaker 3: And I did say something on Visan about it.
Speaker 8: And my comment's pretty simple, and to be real blunt,
it probably is something that's looked at. You know what
I said, because you know, not just me.
Speaker 3: It's just it's almost common sense.
Speaker 8: If it was done in a way where they said, hey,
you know they're doing this, they should have spun it
in a good way where they can actually have said, hey,
you guys got us this time or something like that.
I'm looking for what my response was, but yeah, I
actually did reply to it, though, and.
Speaker 3: I just don't know if this was exactly one hundred
percent true.
Speaker 8: So before I really go off on them a little bit,
I just ye don't see I don't see these sports books.
Speaker 3: Here was my response.
Speaker 8: FanDuel execs should have spun this a fun way instead
of causing any controversy. The untold millions they make from
the types of telegram and chat rooms are meant and
overcome the small loss one hundred plus fold.
Speaker 3: It's another example of how people with college.
Speaker 8: Degrees that have no pulse of the gaming arena are
making decisions.
Speaker 3: Well, I don't know if that happened.
Speaker 8: So until I see someone saying that a show on that,
I just think that they probably took a big loss
on this. And here's what happens those people that run
those chat groups or those telegram groups, dub club groups.
Speaker 3: Of course, they want to spin it that way.
Speaker 8: We're so sharp in our group that they're changing their
terms and conditions. They don't want us, you know, to
sell themselves more So, it's an interesting thing that I
found out in the last forty eight hours, Andy, and
I don't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, yeah, I'll just I'll let you guys
know out here. So the way that we protect ourselves
here is, you know, I work with you know, I
work with guys that have you know, we all have
DraftKings and FanDuel and all the you know, bet MGM
and all the ones that are legalized, but we can't
put in like the same prop bet. We can't put
it in at the same time on the same book.
So like if I'm playing something, you know, pretty big
on FanDuel, the other person can't play it on FanDuel.
They have to play it on DraftKings. We've gotten limited
when you put in the same the same bet really
close to each other they're on the same book, especially
if it's a little bit obscure, like they're like, wait
a minute, nobody's playing that assist plus rebounds prop. But
we got hit three times in Indianapolis on this one,
So like you know working, you know myself working with
a group.
Speaker 1: There's there's ways you put this in play. You're it sucks.
Speaker 2: But in props, you can't beat the you can't beat
the line value too bad, and you can't have multiple
books playing the same thing. They sniff that out absolutely,
they all the time, half for years.
Speaker 3: I don't agree with that. I don't agree. Okay, not
not you. I'm saying I don't agree with those policies
of these places because oh, okay.
Speaker 8: Real simple, it's real simple. If you guys are paying
at the p I know how it works. At the
back of the house. You have one guy that handles
all the NBA, one guy handles all of the NFL,
one guy handles all well, they have one guy that
handles all of the props. It's not our fault, the
originators and handicappers.
Speaker 3: That we have a better line than you.
Speaker 8: Do your job, do your work and get a better line,
just like we get a better line.
Speaker 3: Do your job. It's not our fault you put up
a line. We bet into the line.
Speaker 8: You have one person or two people responsible for making
sure you have an adequate or tight line.
Speaker 3: Let me be real, blun what we do. We checked
beat reporters.
Speaker 8: We checked up to the minute things that are going
on in socials.
Speaker 3: Why can't you guys do that?
Speaker 8: You know, why can't you guys pick more money to
check that out and be ahead of the curve? Then
why do you have to wait for me to go
in there with a bunch of different people that I
give my place to, and all of a sudden, now
you're gonna limit them because.
Speaker 3: You weren't up to date like we were. I don't
agree with that at all.
Speaker 8: I think they should hire people just like I hire
people when my payroll is ridiculous what I have every year.
So yeah, I hire people to beat the books, and
that's what we do. That's why we get limited or
thrown out. Listen, I'll be real blun They can't stop me.
They can't stop us. We're gonna beard in any way.
And by the way, we're gonna a nice bonus when
we beer it in. And I'm not gonna know Bill
Krachenberger coming in. You're gonna know it's somewhat sharp. But
down the line, after you give us multiple bets or
you know, a month's worth of bets, I think it's stupid.
I think these books should take our bets. And I'm
not saying they don't listen. I have some pretty good rules.
I go to the counter at DraftKings at when I'm
back East at I'm I'm a fandom. I'm sorry, Fandel
meigan Son. I go to the county there and DraftKings
at Foxwoods.
Speaker 3: That's it Foxwoods.
Speaker 8: So I go back a couple of times a year,
and I make doubt they limited me though I was
betting many, many thousands on per bet, couldn't carry enough
money with me on the plane. Now I'm still betting.
When I go a couple of times a year. It's
not unusual for me to bet a hefty, hefty, six figure,
you know, twice a year.
Speaker 3: During the futures, I went over one hundred a couple
of times, and they they actually do take my bet.
Speaker 8: You know, I'm a better not only a guy that's
out in the industry talking about it. I bet a
lot of my money on things as people do know
that that know me, that have dealt with me, and
and you know, we're gonna lose forty two forty three
out of one hundred bets, but making fifty seven to
fifty eight bets win out of one hundred. It's gonna
make me a hell of a lot of money, and
it should make you guys too.
Speaker 3: It's all about bank ro management, not chasing losses. I
don't even check until the end of the day.
Speaker 8: As a matter of fact, my assistant today told me
that we were like on fire.
Speaker 3: You know, all right, We're on fire, so great. I
know in the end we're gonna win. If that's simple.
Speaker 8: So being on fire like the last month or whatever,
the last three weeks, I get it. It's I know
we're gonna win. I know what we do every year.
I know why I've been thrown out of thousands and
thousands of sportsbooks.
Speaker 3: I played with so many local guys when I live back.
Speaker 8: East, you know, on these PPH shops, just like Gianni
was talking about before.
Speaker 3: I mean, sorry, you.
Speaker 8: Know we we we're gonna win. We win, we bet
I'm real, so uh that's gonna happen. It happens so
many times that really the local guys. It's out of
the market for me, But for you guys that are
at home watching this, at least you guys can play
with those local guys and you know, play for your
one hundred two hundred three hundred dollars of play where
for me, you know, Uh, it's just I'm done doing that, Andy,
I'm done meeting the guys on the corner and then
they can't ye sure, I'm done doing that and being
told that you're not getting paid.
Speaker 3: And why you're not getting paid.
Speaker 8: You're betting with a team, you're betting with a group,
you're betting with a different I p H.
Speaker 3: You're using a bot.
Speaker 8: Like you know, all I can do is I could
just press a button and bet by hands, and they're
gonna accuse me of using a bot.
Speaker 3: It's just there's so many things against you.
Speaker 8: And you know, you have all these guys that are
that think they're book makers and you know, like yeah.
Speaker 3: And they're just not bookmakers. They think their book mak
They think it's easy.
Speaker 8: They think, oh, I can go to the poker flago
and you can go to any single right now the
world s there's a poker here. There's many pretend book
makers here taking bets. You know, but if they lose,
you're probably not gonna get paid.
Speaker 3: I mean, is it a lot? Right?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Well, Bill, let's talk a little bit of a specific
prop here in MLB I know you've got it. Got
it up on the free picks page. Talk to us
about an MLB prop that you like today.
Speaker 8: Yeah, so Chase Burns total strikeouts over five and a
half minus a dollar fifty over six and a half
plus a dollar twenty.
Speaker 3: I'm also seeing there.
Speaker 8: I have no problem with you taking that plus juice
on an extra strikeout.
Speaker 3: The Reds brought up this workie prospect up last week.
Speaker 8: He had a great first start against the Yankee, striking
out eight and five innings on eighty one pitches.
Speaker 3: I think it was eighty one. I had the stats
up here. I think it was eighty one pitches.
Speaker 8: Anyway, he should have a long release today against the
Red Sox, who have the third highest strike strikeout rate
in the league and have been even worse since they
traded divers.
Speaker 3: So this kid has some elite stuff.
Speaker 8: I expect him, you know, today against this Boston team
to go over strikeouts. That's Chase Burns over five and
a half minus a dollar fifty. You can go over
six and a half plus a dollar twenty. I'm seeing
that out there too. So there you go.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it, Bill Krackenberg, thank you so much.
Tell her what you have up for clients here?
Speaker 1: Where'd you talk?
Speaker 3: Yeah? You know, it's funny.
Speaker 8: I look just like you guys, like I have to
go and look to see what like these guys are
talking about my assistant he's okay on fire run twenty
four and ten, you know, because let me see these
things since since May sixth, seventeen six and three. That's
pretty and that is pretty good though on two percent
or higher. So we have some we have plays up there.
There's a daily playoff there today and I'm gonna tell
everyone this again preseason one month away, wait till football, guys,
this is gonna even though we're listen, I don't take
no time off.
Speaker 3: I work a year round.
Speaker 8: But even though we're having a good baseball season, football
is something I really look forward to. And uh, this
year we're gonna get into the sides market, which I've
never done before. But uh, one of my guys has
proven to me after over the last three seasons, and
I seen his back tested method before that. You know,
we're not gonna kill anybody, but however, we're gonna have
some nice volume.
Speaker 3: It looks good in your accountsaff football games too, especially
on a Sunday.
Speaker 8: If you're betting props all week, you want to put
some games in there on Sunday.
Speaker 3: You know something that's going on Sunday. I very rarely
bet on a Sunday and NFL sides. I'm usually betting
them earlier in the week. So it is looking forward
to this, guys. Thanks for watch it.
Speaker 2: Thanks Bill crack Man. Nobody does it better appreciate it
every week. Heye Bill, actually, Bill, So next couple of weeks,
I'm gonna ask you some questions about some local hot
spots around Vegas, like some of your favorite restaurants, some
of your favorite spots and stuff like I woulda get.
Speaker 1: I want to get some of your your takes on
next four nights.
Speaker 3: I have schedule people coming to town going to dinner,
so and I'm this is perfect. I'm only taking to
my joints.
Speaker 1: So okay, next week, let's do it. Mark it down.
Next week we're gonna get crack Man's favorite spots. Thank
you so much.
Speaker 3: Bill.
Speaker 1: Now, now I'm stoked for next week. Come on next week,
Cake in here soon enough? Uh ja main.
Speaker 2: I had a question about making your own life. How
do you make your own lines? If you're not a bookie. Okay,
great question. There are a lot of ways to go
about it. I'll start with some of the sides and
the totals. I would say probably simulations right now are
are the are the most popular. You run ten thousand
computer simulations, a thousand computer simulations, and you take a
look at what the simulation is and what's the outcome,
and if your numbers do not match what the books are,
then you probably have a bet on your hand. A
lot of guys still do power rankings. They'll rate everything
from coach, quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, and special teams.
They'll put those into their power ratings. They'll come up
with their own numbers and then compare it to what
lines the books come out with. If you got a
line that doesn't match, then you trust your own power
rankings as opposed to the books. Then you've got a
bet there. Those are two ways that are really popular
when you're doing lines and you're doing totals. For myself,
I specialize in props. I tend to look and see
what the books are putting out, and then I compare
if the player's been hot or cold, I know what
I'm looking for in a prop. Number before, because I'm
following a player and what I'm looking for is the
book to be really consistent with the numbers.
Speaker 1: So I'll give you an example.
Speaker 2: We did really, really good on a couple of players
to go over one and a half, made three pointers.
I knew what he was I do with these players,
what their volume was, what their shooting percentage was. What
I'm looking for is the book to just keep giving
us the exact same number. So I'm looking at certain
certain aspects of a player prop. Then I'm just hoping
the book is consistent with it. So there's different ways
that you can make lines, but it really is dependent
on what you're trying to bet. Are you trying to
brete a side, You're trying to bet a total? Are
you trying to bet a prop? But yeah, those are
the ways that you can make your own lines, and
therefore and then when the lines come out, now you've
got a really good comparison.
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, that's that's how you do it.
Speaker 2: So all right, guys, we're gonna bring in Brian Power
just but let's do a couple free plays here on
all around the world. Here, We've got just a couple today.
It's a light day. I will tell you this first one. Uh,
I really like this one the Rays and the Athletics.
I like the Rays under two and a half on
their team total the first five innings. Lopez has been
lights out four straight starts, allowing one or zero runs.
And he's going past this five inning, eight eight starts
this season allowing one or fewer runs this season, and
I like he's got the element of the surprise. There's
there's no there's These Tampa hitters haven't seen him. So
I really like this team total under two and a half.
And honestly, going forward, looking at Lopez, Lopez's opponents under
their team total first five, He's getting five innings.
Speaker 1: He's been really good.
Speaker 2: This play would have hit in think what seventy percent
of his games this season, So that's a team total
look at. And then I see the Red Sox popping
up a lot on the free picks page, money line,
and run line. This is all about crecheving Dominic last start,
seven innings, shutout ten K's allowed two runs total the.
Speaker 1: Last three starts.
Speaker 2: So I see free plays on the Red Sox, the
money line and the run line. So all right, let's uh,
let's bring in Brian Power. Good friend Brian Power here. Brian,
how are you? How is your weekend?
Speaker 7: Sir?
Speaker 8: Uh?
Speaker 1: Doing okay?
Speaker 4: The weekend it could have been better, especially Sunday.
Speaker 5: You know, obviously we were on last Monday, we talked
about how well we were doing. It was a bit
of a disappointing last seven days overall, just because of Sunday. Well,
we're off our first h to two day and quite
some time, looking to gather ourselves and get back on
a winning run. We are still up over sixty units
going back to the last week of May. So very
happy with how things have been going over long term.
June's obviously been great, but we just did have kind
of a one hiccup there yesterday, and looking to bounce
back this week as I've been breaking some stuff down
already found some stuff. I think I know what five
dollars Tuesday is going to be tomorrow. But yes, you've
got an important NL West matchup that we want to
talk about here on the show today that I'm excited
to talk about.
Speaker 1: I had a hiccup, a little hiccup.
Speaker 2: It was the entire month of June, yet little little
hiccup there. But hey, Listen, I appreciate you sharing that
because we talk about our wins, we talk about our
lost Yeah we can. We can do that here.
Speaker 4: So I was on top of the world.
Speaker 5: I don't want to bring up why I was on
top of the world last last Monday. Again, I know
that that you know personally affected you and your Indiana pay.
You know, it was a good end of the NBA
Finals for me. But yeah, you know, things were going well,
and then then yesterday, I don't know. Sometimes you know,
I was doing everything I've been doing all week, and
you know, the Cubs, who would have thought they'd get
shut out? The Cubs I have scored on the road,
they hold the the Strows to two runs. I would
have taken that. They lose to nothing. And then in
the FIFA Club World Cup flumen Ense score twice and
and Byron of course puts four on the board. So
there you go for Flamengo. Sorry me, I got my
Brazilian teams going.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the Giants and the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: How do you break this game down?
Speaker 2: We got San Francisco minus went thirty five, Arizona plus
one fifteen over under his eight.
Speaker 1: You're looking at a side or a total.
Speaker 5: Here, looking got the side, Andy, And that's interesting because
initially when I saw this matchup, I didn't think I
would be interested in the side. These are two teams
that are pretty ice cold right now. Diamondbacks just got
swept here at home by the Marlins over the weekend. Meanwhile,
the Giants have lost five of their last six games
and were swept themselves at home by those aforementioned Marlins
last week. So again, when I saw the matchup, didn't
think I'd exactly be rushing to bet either side.
Speaker 4: But a couple of things here have caught my eye.
Speaker 3: Andy.
Speaker 5: One is the Giants should not have opened as a
dollar fit favorite on the money line. The market clearly
agrees with my assessment there. We've seen the number come
down you met you just mentioned where it was currently at.
And the second thing is Logan Webb. Look, he's very good,
the starter for the Giants, and he's the reason that
San Francisco Open is the favorite here. But throughout his
career pretty stark home versus road splits for mister Webb
two point six to two era at home versus four
point four on the road. This season, he has allowed
twice as many home runs per nine innings on the
road as he has at home. Of course, San Francisco's
one of those great run suppression ballparks. Arizona, okay, you
look at their lineup while they were struggling and they
didn't win over the weekend against Miami, there's still number
three overall in runs per game scored and number two
in runs per game scored at home.
Speaker 4: Obviously, this game in Arizona.
Speaker 5: So the bottom line for me, Eddie, even with Web
on the mound here, I just don't think the Giants
are a demonstrably better team than the Dbacs.
Speaker 4: Give me the plus money here with Arizona, I think
they get it done.
Speaker 5: I would you know, even with Web on the mount,
I think the value is with the home team in
this one.
Speaker 1: Love it, love it all right, this is the game
of the day, Brian. I don't know if you're aware
that we do this. So okay, this is new on
the show, all right.
Speaker 2: Leaving the comments section, everyone pick the winner of this
game and the exact score, and if you get it right,
you get free wager talk swag. We started this last week, Brian.
We don't tell the handicapper game.
Speaker 1: We're picking.
Speaker 2: But it's always a game we're talking about. So I'm
putting you on the spot. Give us the winner, which
I think you know what the winner is. Give us
the exact score. If you get it right, we'll pick
someone in the comments section to get to get swagged.
But everyone out there after the show's over, put in
the comment section who's gonna win?
Speaker 1: And what's the exact score? What do you say?
Speaker 4: Brian Power Arizona five to three?
Speaker 2: Arizona five to three? Here we camp says, watch out,
I'm coming for that beanie.
Speaker 1: I don't think, I don't think we have beanies, but
if you want one, I'm sure. I'm sure we can have.
Speaker 2: A nice beanie cam cam if you If you get
the right score today, I will personally get.
Speaker 1: A Wager Talk beanie for how's that?
Speaker 8: So?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: Brian, you're in, You're You're locked in, Arizona the Underdog
five to three?
Speaker 1: Love it?
Speaker 2: Tell her what you have up at Wager Talk Getty
free plays and he videos anything you want to promote Flooriziers.
Speaker 5: Yeah, let's talk about the video side. So just this morning,
new episode of the Morning Wager dropped and we were
lucky enough to be joined by the great ariil Epstein.
She was kind enough to share her time, so a
few more free plays than normal on a Monday from
the Morning Wager. That episode is again out. Go ahead
and check that out on the YouTube channel. No Power
five today because I was here as well, one Man
in the Morning that but.
Speaker 4: The Power five Marl Power five. I had a good week.
We're four and one on Saturday.
Speaker 5: The only loss was actually Chelsea failing to get the
job done in regulation because there was that stupid long
weather delay, you know, and of course then it goes
an added time and they just can't they couldn't.
Speaker 4: Stop putting the ball in the net. I digress. Still,
You'll take four and one any day.
Speaker 5: And then you want to talk about what I have
up at wt dot buzz slash VP. Guys, it's been
a great first six months of twenty twenty five or
number three and net profit for the year at the site,
as I said, sixty one units since May twenty fourth. Well,
if you want to get on board the next six months,
you can do so right there. Rest of the your
power package one price all plays. This is going to
cover any all sports for me the rest of the year. Obviously,
football is right around the corner. We're getting very excited
about that. Mark Zanon and I will start breaking down
NFL on the Morning Wagers very soon, I believe think
next week. College football. Very excited about that. We had
a great year last year, great year in college basketball
of course, the end of the NBA on that twelve
and one run that we were very proud of. And
it's baseball all summer and a little bit of soccer too.
So WT dot buz slash pp one great low price
gets you every play for the rest of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: Nice Brian, Congratulations, I'm a good.
Speaker 3: Year.
Speaker 5: Oh but I have to I have to jump in here.
I see in the comments section, was this guy on
bay Watch?
Speaker 3: Not with this? Not with this?
Speaker 5: Dad bod buddy? Maybe I guess ten years ago, I
guess they watch is an old show.
Speaker 2: But I don't know, you know, well, maybe maybe Lifeguard
at the local pool episode perversion of Baywatch, but definitely well,
I kind.
Speaker 5: Of am a away as I yelled at my daughter, please,
you're not drowning right as I am breaking down the
baseball score lines for tomorrow.
Speaker 4: I just evidently look up every once in a while.
You're Okay, you're sitting in the deep bench. Somebody's looking
at her. Okay, there you.
Speaker 1: Go, swim harder, ye, harder.
Speaker 5: Hey we got we got third place in the backstroke.
We're doing okay in that department. You know it's better.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't better.
Speaker 5: I would have lost if I would have guessed over
under what place she would have got out of that
backstroke relay.
Speaker 4: So glad my daughter could make me look foolish.
Speaker 8: There.
Speaker 1: Oh that's great Brian Power everyone.
Speaker 2: Uh, the not Baywatch version of the suburban Baywatch out
at the pool kicking back.
Speaker 1: So all right, Brian Power, everyone, thanks so much for
joining us.
Speaker 2: Okay, guys, yeah, you have to comment after the show's
over in the comment section with the score. Tell us
who you think is gonna win, what the correct score is.
If you get it right, you get way to talk swag.
If Brian gets got it right, uh, then we'll pick
someone out of the the comment section and we'll send
them some swag. So I want to remind you guys,
last day of the seven days of all access or
flex picks for only six to nine dollars. It's less
than ten dollars a day for full coverage. And includes
all sports. Stick with your favorite golf expert meat or
stick with any other expert that you bond with that
you like. And the best part is you can pick
a different handicapper every day. You're right with one handicapper
all week you can try a few out. Really good
way to try out different handicappers. See if you like
the write up, see if you like the sports they're
involved with. So seven days for only sixty nine dollars,
take advantage of these summer specials. Guys, we run them
all summer long. They're really really discounted and there are
some really really good spots to take advantage of. So
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Speaker 1: So good luck on your place and take care