Speaker 1: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today and I am your host,
Andy Lang. It is Wednesday. We're bringing in.
Speaker 2: A fresh perspective.
Speaker 1: We got a special guest who's gonna join us from
outside the Wager Talk family. Said we wanted to try
some new things, so I'm excited for this. We're gonna
be talking with Jared Smith about I just love stories
of guys that take big risks to make big changes
in their lives, and I wanted to talk to him
for a while and see where he's at. So we're
excited to have him join us a little bit later.
Of course, we're gonna start with Giohnny and the Steam
Report Ross Benjamin, who's now fourteen to one. It is
free plays. A winning percentage is truly insane. We're gonna
talk Twins and the Cubs, and then at the end,
Dan and I are going to break down the Dolphins
season win total of.
Speaker 2: Eight and a half.
Speaker 1: But Dan, yesterday we did our game where we picked
a game and people had to give us the winner
and the correct score, and Dan, we were told that
that picking a WNBA game is impossible. It is impossible
to pick the winner and the.
Speaker 3: Yeah, who's gonna be able to get a WNBA final score?
You got to pick the winner? Two It's impossible, it's
absolutely possible. Will never happen, Andy.
Speaker 2: Dan, did we have a winner?
Speaker 4: Wow?
Speaker 3: We well, I guess technically we had a winner because
we have one of the best WNBA cappers on the
planet who came out here and gave a free play
and told you who was gonna win. Not only did
Ski Proppitt tell you who was gonna win the game, Andy,
he nailed the correct score down.
Speaker 2: To the point.
Speaker 3: So now, thanks to the people who are common and
you and I are going to pick one of these
winners and we'll let them know before the end of
the show here. But yeah, amazing job by Ski, And like,
if you go back and watch yesterday's episode, he was.
Speaker 4: Like, huh so, what's the total totals? One sixty six?
Speaker 3: Like the gears were turning and the man picked the
exact score and won. For the list, there's more reason
than ever to make sure you comment below after the
show because someone's winning just because Ski is a fricking
genius handy unbelievable.
Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't get much better than that. Like
sne that's a drop the mic, and I.
Speaker 3: Think I like that better than someone in the comments
actually guessing it that. Like we've done that a couple
of times where were like the kappers like, hey, what
do you think it is? And you know they've been close,
but picking an exact score in WNBA, I mean, if
you're not rhyme with Ski profit, I don't know what
you're doing. Because I was damn impressive handy.
Speaker 2: It's pretty pretty amazing. So shout out to Ski Nails
the winner and the exact score.
Speaker 1: That was a lot of fun. So all right, that
doesn't get us a like, I don't know what does?
Come on, hit the like button. Make sure you're subscribe
to the channel. If you're you're not part of the
way you talk family, you're missing out on great content
like this. You get notified when all the videos go
live and when all of our our our pre or
our game breakdowns for baseball, for soccer, you know, college
football and NFL is right around the corner. We're clipping
the season win told. Those are up on the YouTube
channel as well. So no reason to not be part
of the wage to talk to YouTube family. Let's bring
on Gianni, and let's talk about the Steam report.
Speaker 2: Gianni.
Speaker 1: I did want to start off with two games in
particular that we talked about yesterday. Both the steam was correct.
We talked about that, the Atlanta game and the over.
We talked about the high total it was at ten.
Was the final score ten to one, so it gets
over by one, and then the Cardinals, we were like,
why are they betting this up? And bang when you
know it, wouldn't you know it? The Cardinals get the win.
So very interesting. The Steam report definitely proved to be worthwhile.
So first off, I always ask you, how are you,
my friend? Let's get some positivity going.
Speaker 3: Good, good good.
Speaker 5: Anytime you log into the accounts and you had more
money than the day before, it's always a nice night.
And then I looked and I saw even a wager
talk also nice winning night in Major League Baseball. So
been on point in baseball, which is perfect timing because
over the next couple weeks that is the focus. I mean,
we have some smaller market stuff here and there.
Speaker 4: You know some golf. I actually released the golf play.
Speaker 5: If you go to wagestalk dot com you check on
my page, there's a free four percent golf matchup for
the Scottish Open. I just sent it out right now,
probably five minutes ago. Subscribers got it. It's a four
percent play, which means one percent in bank roll. Scottish
Open up at wayestalk dot com free four percent. But
the rest is mostly baseball as we await Saturday's UFC,
and that's even a little bit slow with the week
off last week in MMA. In fact, Friday, I have
to be at UFC Apex, so I'll let you know
now I will not be on the show Friday morning, unfortunately.
But but but given the heads up now, we're actually
taping for the following week, the pay per view, the
three eighteen car and I believe it is, and there's
only like three lines out. I checked my off screen
outs and they don't even have all the lines up.
So it's a little bit early yet for MMA, which
is why I haven't put up my package yet. That'll
probably be up there later tonight or tomorrow morning. I
just want to make sure my guys are able to
get the good numbers, because if like all the books
don't have the lines out, it's not fair to them
for me to get down on the minus one fifty,
send it out at minus one fifty, and by the
time their book opens it up, it's minus one eighty.
Like they're just not making the same bet. So I've
been forced to have to wait a little bit on
MMA this week and again now with the week off
International fight week behind us, it'll be consistent now week
in week out. We'll have UFC plus the Contender Series
starting up here in a couple of weeks. But like
I said, so far, we got a baseball today, handful
of sides, handful of totals.
Speaker 2: If you're ready, yeah, let's talk baseball.
Speaker 1: And then yes, I do want to talk a little
UFC with you since since you're not gonna be here
on Friday.
Speaker 2: Yeah, interested in your report on the Steam report. I
looked at it.
Speaker 1: I didn't see a whole lot of major, major things.
Just it's a couple what's your read on it?
Speaker 6: All?
Speaker 5: Right, here's what we got A couple signs for you quickly.
Nine oh one Dodgers minus one fifty, nine thirteen Toronto
minus one fifty. Those are the two favorites, as well
as Saint Louis nine to eight. Saint Louis at minus
one twenty two dogs for you the White Sox nine
to fourteen White Sox plus one twenty five. That's probably
the most heavily one sided public team opposite the White Sox.
So sharp's have helping the books there for sure. And
nine to twenty La Angels plus one ten a couple
totals really quick for you. Nine oh nine over seven
and a half up to minus one twenty five Arizona,
San Diego nine eighteen under eight up the minus one thirty,
Cleveland and Houston nine twenty over nine up to minus
one twenty five Texas La Angels and again over in Pittsburgh,
Kansas City over eight up to minus one thirty. And
that one's opposite the public as well. That one sticks
out a little bit because it's like one sided as
far as total action goes from the recreational betters, and
you have some sharp money opposite.
Speaker 4: So those are the two.
Speaker 5: Bets that stick out the most as far as public
on one side, sharps on the other. And that's the
White Sox on this as far as signs go. And
then the over in Pittsburgh Kansas City, where you have
the under with the recreational betters all over the under
and obviously fading the White Sox. They're betting Toronto like
they do pretty much every single night, fading the White Sox.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Toronto. God, what is this ten ten
wins in a row? Really really incredible? I want to
ask you about Miami. They've been playing really really good,
but then you've got this the starting pitcher that it
it's like good luck trying to figure out what you're
gonna get from him. I mean Alcontra, he was you know,
it was an all timer and just hasn't happened this year.
Is this like a situation where you got a hot
team but a shaky pitcher.
Speaker 2: Is it just a stay away or it is?
Speaker 5: For me, I'd be looking the Cincinnati or leave it
alone only because of obviously you have the storter for
Miami very hittable, but you have a storter for Cincinnati
that's coming off an awful start. And he was pitching
really well, pitching really well until that last game. And
I usually liked it to side with pitchers like that,
you know, coming off arguably their worst game. But he
only threw sixty six pitches. And this is a guy
that in three of the four games leading up to
that one. He threw one hundred plus pitches, so I
mean that was simply a tired arm. I think the
rest was the best thing for him. He got rocked
for nine hits in only three innings. Again, I think
you get a good bounce back by Abboit. I like
personally Cincinnati right there. Again, the line's moving, You're getting
some Miami money, which not surprising.
Speaker 4: Like you said, they're the hot team.
Speaker 5: But I think as this line continues to drop, for me,
I'm starting to lean Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at UFC before we let you go.
We have some monster favorites. I just the top five favorites.
If you parlay him together, it's still not even money.
You're still you're still laying a little bit of juice there.
Speaker 2: I get.
Speaker 1: I get some of the line moves up. The one
that terrifies me the most to me is Stephen Thompson
against Gabriel Boom Theme.
Speaker 2: Thompson man, he just he's like the energizer.
Speaker 1: Body just keeps going and I'm not sure Boomfen can
keep up with him on the feet on the ground.
It's boom theme all day, but laying minus four to
ten on boom Theme over Stephen Thompson feels very very worrisome,
and then minus seven hundred on Vitor Patrino. Patrino's lost
two straight. I know Austin Lane isn't isn't very good,
but to me, those are two favorites that I'm going with. Yikes,
run for the hills on those ones. Be really careful.
What's your thoughts?
Speaker 5: No, it's really top to to lay that kind of
price on Bonfime again. And he saw him get knocked
out against Dolby, so you know he's obviously beatable, but
he's come back off back to back wins a nice
sub over Chaos Williams, and I understand why he's so
heavily favored again.
Speaker 6: It's one of those cards.
Speaker 5: Where you're gonna get Parlay's moneyline parlays with the favorites.
You're gonna get five and six seven fighter parlays, and
by the time they get to that bout, they're gonna
have a ton of risk on Bonfiend and the only
way to help eliminate that is to just jack that
price up as high as possible. And that's what you're
pretty much looking at here. Because Thompson may have that
name recognition. But the truth is he just hasn't you know,
gotten any w since you know COVID. He's got one
win and that was against Kevin Holland in a knockdout,
you know, you know, or with Kevin Holland, an unmotivated
Kevin M.
Speaker 4: Holland was it looked like at that time. But he's
fighting top guys. That's the thing. He fought shot Cut.
Speaker 5: He pull the law, he bought Buckley like he's losing
the good guys. And when you have that kind of name,
you're just not going to get easy out. And here's
another tough out for him in Bon Fiend. I think
Bombing gets the win.
Speaker 4: I do.
Speaker 5: It's just, you know, I'm not in the business of
predicting the winner and making money.
Speaker 4: That's just not going to happen.
Speaker 5: You just can't do that because again, if you're going
to predict the winner, it's going to be Bonfiend, the
minus four hundred favorite's going to look a lot better
on paper than the dog. But I just don't think
it's really warranted. I think he got to conclude he
wins his fight nine out of ten times to actually
have much value, and against Wonder Boy, that's just tough
to do. But it's at the end of his career.
He's more or less fighting out the contract. At this point,
I don't see any reason to back the dog. I
do think it's a favorite or pass situation, but again
not a favorite I'm really interested in. It's a tough
card so far. I'll be honest with you, Like I said,
I haven't released anything yet. Just started digging into it
the day before yesterday, but still haven't released anything. Kind
of like the under in that bomb Fiend and Thompson.
I think bombfing is able to get wonder Boy out
of there again, you know, and his last two losses
Inside the distance is how it got done by wonder Boy.
I just think the trajectory continues. Gun the Head, I'm
bent and bomb fing inside the distance. But again, not
a fight that I've gotten involved in.
Speaker 2: Love it, Love it. I think that covers it.
Speaker 1: With you, Giotti, We're gonna miss you on Friday, but
at least we got our UFC fix.
Speaker 2: That is in so tell room. We have up for
clients today.
Speaker 5: We you're talking, all right, It'll be baseball, baseball, more
baseball five and zero on Monday's Package two and one
on yesterday's package, and I'm gonna have at least two
four percent baseball plays in today's package as well, just
to grind man make that money in baseball. There's a
lot of opportunity and we're on a good little run
right now. Keep it going heading into this good weekend,
and like I said, the MMA will be up as well.
Don't forget four percent play is free in the golf.
It goes early tomorrow morning. So get on it tonight.
The luck tonight boys, Thank you.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Gianni Adam, which way would you expect main event line
to move ahead of fight minus two to eighty Adam,
I would say there's probably not going to be a
lot of movement. If I were to guess, it would
move ever so slightly in favor of Derek Lewis. He's
a much more known name, and this is a five
round fight. Derek Lewis has gone five rounds before talison
to Siera. Is younger, he's probably more athletic at this point,
but we haven't seen him go five rounds. In fact,
we've only seen him go three rounds once and that
was in a modified kickboxing match. So I think you're
going to see people talk themselves into Derek Lewis, but again,
I wouldn't expect it to move an a ton. So
let's go all around the world here real quick and
do some free plays. Gianni mentioned Scottish open, and yeah,
I've got a Scottish open play for you guys. I
would take a look at Harry Hall to finish inside
the top forty. This guy has been really really consistent.
Seven top forty five fishes in a row, this guy's
eleventh total strokes gain in the field since June first.
He's been playing very good. He's great in DFS, very underrated,
and he's got one of the best hat and mustache
games in all of golf.
Speaker 2: So if you like a.
Speaker 1: Killer hat and mustache, Harry Hall is your guy. But
he's been cashing tickets. A great, great guy to be
betting on Links at the Mercury Links minus seven and
a half. The Mercury defense slid to ninth in the league.
The last five games the Links have kind of come back.
They're now first in offensive and defensive efficiency. A couple
players are out tonight for the Mercury. This one comes
from Ronald Kabang and this opened at minus five and
a half. It's already been moved up to minus seven
and a half still playable, which just small. And then
the Diamondbacks and the Padres. We've got a free play
on the Padres money line cease for the Padres pitches
great at home two point seven to six ERA, at
home six point two seven on the road fat eight
point six to nine ERA, and one point seven to
nine whip the last seven starts, So that comes to
us from Drew Martin and also throwing their Diamondbacks fourth
worst bullpen. So two of those can be found on
the free page over at wager Talk. If you want
more free plays, there's a bunch of them up there.
I know Pavlos has a soccer one up there, so
lots of different sports there. So, Jake, how do you
bet top forty? You just just go to DraftKings and
you bet. Let's see what's should just be right there? Yeah, round, Yeah,
top finishes. You can bet top five, top ten, top twenty,
top forty if you have the option always bet that
includes ties that way, that way if you tie for forty,
if you get paid out in full. So yeah, yeah,
good question, good question. All right, guys, we are offering
three days for forty nine dollars. Still, you get full
access to a Haiti kapper of your choice each day.
You can stick with the same expert all three days,
or mix it up. You could try somebody different each day,
completely up to you. You've got the power to tailor
make it to your style and your schedule. Sharp insight,
winning plays, totally flexibility, all for less than fifty bucks,
just forty nine dollars. So yeah, it'd be a great
time to try out some heiticappers. We cashed our only
client play.
Speaker 2: Of the week so far.
Speaker 1: We cashed it yesterday on Angel Reese over thirteen and
a half rebounds and listen, I've been opened about how
bad our month of June was. So we took a
few days off and we regrouped and we said we're
just gonna keep it low volume. That's what we did.
We've only had one play this week. Bang, we're up
two percent. We have another play that is up It's
a golf in UFC parlay that goes off early tomorrow morning.
Speaker 2: But if you guys want it, go grab it.
Speaker 1: That is up for sale right now at wager Talk
or take advantage of the flex picks you get three days.
You can use it for me, then you can use
it for another person, then you can use it for
another person.
Speaker 2: You guys, get it?
Speaker 1: So three days Flex Picks just forty nine dollars. All right,
let's bring in Ross the Boss Ross Insane Free Play Run.
I mean, people in the chat yesterday were talking about
your run.
Speaker 2: I mean, come on, it's getting laughable at.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a little bit confounding, isn't it.
Speaker 7: You know?
Speaker 6: I mean I know, personally, Andy, if I had if
somebody told me they had a record like that or
a streak like that, I would second guess it to
no end. I mean, that's just the way we are.
That's how we're wired, right. But yeah, I mean, look,
if they want to fact check me, they just can
go to my personal page at wager Talk TV. It's
wt dot buzz slash ROSSTV. That't WT Dot buzz Slash
Ross TV. Feel free to go through the archives, folks.
The tapes don't lie.
Speaker 1: So, I mean, and you're right, like, how often did
we talk about Free Picks records?
Speaker 2: But you're on a fourteen and one run thirty seven
and four fifty four to eleven fifty four and eleven.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, look, here's the thing.
Speaker 6: We talk about free picks runs because this just show
goes to show your chances are very good that if
you're on free picks runs like that, your premium picks
aren't doing as well.
Speaker 4: Right, so it's impossible you can't be doing you can't be.
Speaker 6: Doing I mean, even though we're sixty four and forty
one run with our premium picks, which is sixty one percent,
pretty damn good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yell in comparison.
Speaker 6: But the bottom line is, folks, I'm being realistic with
you and Andy, I'm sure what concur with this is
that when you're on runs such as what I'm on
with these free picks, it's just a matter of time
before I cool off. It's not a negative, negative statement.
It's just the reality of sports betting, you know. So
on the other side of the coin, you could see
what I'm capable of on the premium side. If I'm
doing this on the free pick side, I certainly could
do it on the premium side as well.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: Let's get into a game in particular. So originally you
were going to talk about Mets and Orioles, but looks
like we got potential bad weather and again, yeah, make
sure you guys would check on the weather. Looks like
it's going to rain at the beginning of this game,
and then it's just gonna get worse. So we give
you Twins and the Cubs to break down. We got
Horton for the Cubs, Festa for the Twins. Twins win
the first game this series, eight to one. What's your
breakdown on Twins and Cubs.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, Minnesota right now a dollar fifteen favorite in
the totals nine and a half, or for your youngsters
out there at are minus one fifteen. I'm sorry, Kate,
Horton last three on the road has been terrible. Nine
zero zero ERA, two zero zero whip. You're not gonna
win a lot of games when your starting pitcher is
putting up those atrocious of numbers. And again, I look
at recent form a lot more than I do an
overall overall numbers when it comes to starting pitcher, Cubs bullpen,
they've been very good all season long, but Andy, they're
in a recent funk right now, over the last six
games of five thirty two ERA and a one fifty
two whip. And despite the fact that the Cubs as
you alluded to off that eight to one loss yesterday
at Minnesota. They're still averaging five point eight runs per game,
and they've hit twelve home runs over their last six games.
You know, this was the fourteenth time, meaning yesterday, that
the Cubs were held one run or less in a
game this season. The previous thirteen times had occurred. In
their next game, they averaged six point nine runs per game.
So this is not a team that you can keep
down for any period of time when it comes to
offensive production. So I expect the Cubs to come out
like gangbusters with their bats today. This is also a
Cubs team forty nine home runs in their last twenty
six games against right handed starting pitchers like David Festa,
five point seven runs per game, one hundred and two
home runs and sixty five games. Those are huge power numbers,
and David Fester, by the way, his last six outings
included five stars. It's in one relief appearance, seven to
twenty eight ERA and an alarming seven home runs allowed
in twenty nine and two thirds innings pitched. That shapes
up as problematic when you're facing a power hitting team
like the Cubs. The Minnesota bullpen over their last twenty
six games has been absolutely brutal, a six to sixty
one era, a one eighty six whip. And during that
same stretch, by the way, Minnesota has hit thirty eight
home runs over those last twenty six games. So we
got two teams on power surges right now. The Twins
in their last three games averaging six point three runs
and ten hits per game. And here's another one that
jumped out at me, Andy, Minnesota has played five and
zero to the over in their last five at home
when there's been a total of nine and a half
or less like there is tonight, and they scored six
runs or more in their previous game, and those five
games averaged the combined seventeen points four runs scored per game.
Give me the Cubs and the Twins over the total
of nine and a half.
Speaker 2: That is a That is a hell of a breakdown. Ross.
Speaker 1: That's very very well done, man, I really appreciate that one.
Speaker 2: So, yeah, did you even look into the Mets and
the Orioles?
Speaker 4: I did.
Speaker 6: I made some notes if I could find them here, because.
Speaker 2: It wasn't just a crazing just in case they just
in case they do have Yeah.
Speaker 6: I mean way I brought it to your attention is
the fact that it's supposed to rain right heavy up
until game time and and then it we're looking at
light rain from that point on. So I just don't
see how they're going to start a game that's been
pouring and then it's been light rain, all right.
Speaker 4: So yeah, looking at.
Speaker 6: That Mets in Baltimore game, David Peterson Jekyll and Hyde
home and away right nine and zero, and his team
starts at home one in seven and his team starts
on the road. So that's something to keep in mind.
There two starting pitchers right now, they're vulnerable, David Peterson
on the road being vulnerable and Tommy Yuki Chicano last
five starts in eight eighty seven e RA and the
two fifteen whip. The last four starts, he's allowed seven
home runs in eighteen innings. You got two bullpens that
are pretty much struggling right now, two teams that are
pretty good with the long ball, especially Baltimore at home.
So I would have a leen if this game were
to be played a small lean on Baltimore and the
Mets to go over the total of ten.
Speaker 1: I like that when I before I looked at the weather.
That was exactly what I what I saw. Especially Sigano.
He's been really really roughed up the last few games.
So but again, be careful betting on that game. We got,
we got some bad runs.
Speaker 6: I would stay away from it, folks. You know. The
reason being I'm sorry to cut you off, Andy, is
if they indeed do play, this could be one of
those games where you have weather delays a stop and
start to stop and start, and then there's no continuity
with pitching, and it just puts a whole different perspective
on when you're looking at it from a handicapping standpoint,
when those types of situations come.
Speaker 1: Up, Absolutely ross, great breakdown, incredible run on the free plays.
Speaker 2: Tell everyone what you have up and where we can
find you at.
Speaker 6: Yeah, call it you know again. Premium picks, By the way, folks,
I know the free picks run is great. But I'm
not trying to say I'm going to go on a
losing streak. But you know the reality is I'm going
to cool off at some point, and these premium picks
are pretty darn good right now. Sixty four and forty
one sixty one percent a net profit of over forty
eight units, and that's since May the thirteenth, going on
two months, also fourteen and six with my last twenty
premium picks. Unfortunately, I lost yesterday with my five dollars pick,
and I appreciate all the business, folks, but I'm going
to bounce back for you today as I'll have a
couple Major League Baseball premium pick winners up for sale
right after I get off air here. And college football,
by the way, Andy four ninety nine all access special
right now, I should say annual package special that's marked
down from everybody else at five ninety nine. I'm at
four ninety nine and it's going to go up to
six ninety nine eventually, folks, why should you buy it
for me? I know Andy likes this statement. I'm glad
that you asked, because last year number one in college
football in terms of win percentage and units earned. Two
years ago, I was number two in units earned. The
last two seasons number one combined and units earned at
wager talk dot com, and folks, there's a lot of
great handicappers there. Last year finished sixty and thirty four,
are sixty and thirty five. Excuse me? In college football
sixty three percent, and since September ninth of twenty twenty
three college football, we've made eighty five units. Folks, you
want to know why you should purchased at four ninety nine,
that's good until August I. I just gave you some
pretty damn good reasons.
Speaker 2: Why love it?
Speaker 1: Ross, Thank you so much. Great breakdown on the Cubs
and Twins. Continued success on that free picks and go
get him today, Ross, thanks very much.
Speaker 6: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Andy Blocked has probably the comment of the day here.
You want to cool off raise your bet size? So true, man, boy,
you're on a hot run.
Speaker 2: You're thinking, Oh, I'm just gonna raise that bet size
just a little bit.
Speaker 6: That.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is pretty much a surefire away to guarantee
your winning streets coming to an and great stuff there, Blocked.
Speaker 2: Okay, we're gonna bring on Jared Smith.
Speaker 1: We're gonn announce the winner of the of Ski predicting
the winner and the correct score. We're gonna do it
right after Jared Smith and before we break down the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: So let's bring on Jared.
Speaker 1: Jared and I actually did a couple shows together like
four or five years ago, believe it or not, and
he's a great follow Yeah, yeah, it's a great follow
on X. But Jared, I love your story, man. I
love people that take big swings. They take big risks
in search of something better. So thank you for joining
us and tell us a little bit about it. Man,
the floor is yours.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, honestly. Five Actually, I was thinking about
it last night in this morning. Five years I started
working at wager Talk. I want to say it was
right before the pandemic, like literally a couple of months before,
and then the pandemic app and everything all hell broke loose.
And then I came back and I did some golf
shows with you guys that summer. I think it was
like June July of twenty twenty, and then you know,
life happens. I was told that I couldn't do that,
you know, type of work anymore if I wanted to
work for a television network. You know, I couldn't tell
you know, it was such a weird time for everyone,
and then so I had to step away from it,
which sucked because I really enjoyed working with you guys.
And I mean I did shows with Dave Cochin, like
I mean, you know, I was I was on cloud
nine during that time. Obviously it was a very different
time for the industry. And then things just went absolutely
crazy for my life, like during that time, right, Like
I mean, I went through a lot of personal stuff
and then eventually I came out to Vegas. When I
moved out to Vegas, Andy, I think that's kind of
when everything changed, because it was really the first time
in my life that I did something for me, whereas before,
you know, I worked in television and local news and
radio and working for sports teams and getting laid off
by this team and moving to this job, and you know,
when you work in sports, you're just so mobile.
Speaker 4: And I've always been like, oh, I'll move here for
a job. I'll move here for a job.
Speaker 7: I'll go here and work, you know, move to New
York and try to establish my life there. But when
I came out to Vegas, it was like, I want
to move to Vegas, so I'm just gonna do it
and I'll worry about the fallout later. And that's kind
of when it all like again, that's kind of when
it all change for me. That's kind of when, like
my perspective, when your shit, when your environment, when you
make an intentional move to change your environment. That's when
I started getting all of these jobs that just started
coming out of the woodworks. Like I got the job
at Fox Fox Sports Radio, which is kind of like
my main job now.
Speaker 4: That job happened, just that job.
Speaker 7: It didn't matter where I was in my life that
at any point that job was coming for me at
that exact moment in time, and it just so happened
that it was while I was literally packing up my
apartment in New York City to move to Vegas and
I got the DM. I think it was like a
week before the move and I got a DM cold
DM in my inbox and they're like, hey, do you
want an interview for this opening? And I'm like, I'm
moving next week, like probably not a great time. And
Russ Axelrod, who he's become a friend now, you know,
he's the guy who runs a lot of the partnerships
at iHeart.
Speaker 4: He's like, you want to take this interview, and so
I'm I'm I'm.
Speaker 7: Interviewing with Don Martin and Scott Shapiro who run Fox
and iHeart.
Speaker 4: You know, it's they just use Fox as kind of
like their cover.
Speaker 8: And all the boxes are in my part, Like I'm
doing the interview and it like looks normal, and then
there's all these boxes in my apartment and I'm telling
the story about you know, my dad, you know my
dad passed a year a couple years prior and my
divorce and going through all this life change, and he's like,
that's what we want, Like that pain and experience, Like
that's what that's storytelling, that's radio.
Speaker 4: And so you don't really know when you're going through
all the can I curse on this show?
Speaker 2: I don't know what the same bullshit? Yeah, absolutely, when.
Speaker 7: You're going through all the bullshit of life, you don't
know what strand will then resonate with someone else when
you're telling that story and then they apply it to
their situation, and then you make that connection and then
again from that point on that This was August of
twenty two, I moved to Vegas. So it's been it's
been three years I've been in Vegas now, and in
those three years, Fox, Bet, MGM Network, all of these
different entities I've started to work with. I had a
nice little fun run at Vison until they you know,
kind of went off the path. But it's yeah, like Yeah,
you make to your original point, like you make that,
you make that intentional shift, like I'm moving to a
place where I feel happy and i feel like I
can thrive, and then all of the things kind of
align with it.
Speaker 1: So you you pack up your apartment, through everything in
a car along with your dog Jackpot.
Speaker 4: Correct, like just adopted like two months prior.
Speaker 7: First adventure together, sitting in the car with me for
four day is driving across the country.
Speaker 2: All right, So now you're.
Speaker 1: In Vegas, you're dealing with all of the big time
betters and stuff. What kind of took you off guard
with with some of these these big names, Like what
really surprised you?
Speaker 4: That's a good question.
Speaker 7: I've been honestly, like I Andy, like you work with
all of these guys like it's I'm not I don't
consider them like they're actually very flawed humans.
Speaker 4: And I love all of them. Steveezik, Bill Krackberg, all
those guys.
Speaker 7: They're all amazing. They've all been amazing to me. The
one thing that I think is a misconception because our lens,
especially the public's lens, and you know there's over one
hundred people watching, like public slens.
Speaker 4: Like they only view these people through social media.
Speaker 7: They don't know them personally, and let's be honest, on
social media, they don't really give off the best vibes
like I love Fees to death, I love Bill Crack
to death. They come off sometimes on social media could
be tough, you know, because they're just taught. They're just
extreme of consciousness. When I got to know them personally
and sit down with them, break bread with them, talk
to them about the industry, share your problems, like they're
just they're just really great people and they're they're authentic people.
I think that's the key, and sometimes the lens of
social media is like it's skews.
Speaker 4: Who they really are.
Speaker 7: It's been great, honestly, I think Vegas is I say
this to everyone who moves or to come that visits here.
If you don't spend time off the strip, away from
that you know, rat race, and you don't spend time
with people that you've met. Because everyone comes to Vegas,
they know people. They go to restaurants, they go to bars,
they go to clubs. Do it off the strip. Rent
a car, drive responsibly, don't drink and drive. Rent a car,
drive somewhere off the strip. Go somewhere that isn't the Venetian,
you know, cause yeah, I just think you get such
a different sense of what this town is. And that
really changed for me when I again when I moved here.
Speaker 1: So now I follow you on social media stuff, and
so now you're really really knee deep in it. You're betting,
you're doing the research, and I saw you started tape
research on chip Can all these blocking schemes in You
are convinced that the Raiders are going to be good
this year.
Speaker 2: So do tell.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I'm I'm having a lot of fun with the
film study content. So my background is I played football.
I coached very briefly after high school. I played up
unto high school. After high school, I came back for
a summer I coached, and then I went to Penn
State and you know, started chasing my career, and obviously
coaching was never a football was never part of that.
Speaker 4: Other than media.
Speaker 7: I've had an opportunity in the last year to get
back into coaching with Bishop Gorman's youth team, which is
for those unfamiliar with Vegas youth sports, Bishop Gorman's like
the high school program out here that's like the premier program.
They have a really good youth theater. There's no middle
school football here. I learned that in Nevada, no middle
school football. It's all youth theater programs, and especially the
private schools, they all kind of feed into the bigger schools.
And so I've had an opportunity to get back into coaching,
which sparked my football fire again. So I have access
to film, I need to bet on the games. There's
obviously a level of knowledge you need about the teams
that I think. As much as I love a lot
of the content that people put out these days, a
lot of it's very surface level.
Speaker 4: Oh. I think Ashton Genty's gonna have a.
Speaker 7: Good year because he's a really good player and he
had a really good career Boise, Okay, why, Like, what
is it about Genty and the Raiders and their offense
that lead you to believe he's going to have a
good career. Well, if you go back and look at
Chip Kelly's scheme in Ohio State, albeit with the best players,
it was really good scheme and they were able to
make Judkins and Henderson look like rock stars all year
behind a really good offensive line. But why, like what
you know and that's my curiosity and he's always what
sparked my interest in gambling, like why do markets work
this way?
Speaker 4: Why is this?
Speaker 7: So that's I think what makes a good broadcaster is
your ability to dig deeper. So doing that, you know,
allowed me to kind of combine the handicapping with the
football and create. And there's a couple content creators out
there right now doing really good film analysis. I'll shout
out film guy Brooks Austin. I think he's the best
at it right now. He more focuses on the SEC,
but he's kind of branched out into more national stuff.
But I do think I have a unique ability to
kind of analyze football because that's the sport that I really,
you know, played and really was around the most. And yeah,
I think Chip Kelly's gonna have a creer. I honestly
think this Raiders offense can be good. Now they're in
the toughest division, their win totals low for a reason.
But I think Gino and Chip are going to have
a really good year together. And I think that run
game is going to be really good. I mean, they
ran duo last year at Ohio State where they basically
take four offensive linemen you know, tackle guards, center guard,
and they basically double team both tackles defensive tackles. So
you're essentially taking four offensive linemen and you're blocking two
defensive tackles. And I know that sounds like what the
hell are you doing with the rest of the line.
When you do that and you completely move the anchor
point of the defensive line, you essentially eliminate both defensive
tackles the anchor of the d line. It allows you
a lot of flexibility and it allows the running back
to then use his vision to find that hole. And
I think gent is a perfect candidate for that because
he didn't have the best offensive lineup Boise State. They
were very good, not great, and had a much lesser competition.
I think the scheme is going to be very important
with Vegas because they're obviously playing you know, elite defenses
every week and it's an NFL talent, so I and
I think that is why the Raiders are going to
have a really good year on offense.
Speaker 1: All right, So we're drafting genty early in our fantasy drafts,
and you're gonna take the plus money seven and a
half wins on the Raiders.
Speaker 7: Aren't you, I think so, I mean, I I think
I think my strategy with Vegas this year, Andy is
so the thing I like about their schedule is it's
kind of like a sandwich, Like there's some winnable games early.
And I do this thing called the spread matrix, where
like I put all their games on you know, you know,
all the teams for all the games for every team
on this chart and you can kind of see like
where the trouble spots are based on, like the colors
and like the rest, and and kind of the way
that the cadence of the schedule plays out. I mean,
I think that game early is winnable against New England.
Speaker 4: I honestly do.
Speaker 7: And I know everyone loves New England this year, but
I would not be shocked if they start a little
bit slow. Everyone's super high on them, but they're working
in a completely new offense, completely new head coach. And
then they play the Chargers early on a Monday night,
like at home. I think they can win that game.
I know the Chargers will probably have a bunch of
fans here in Vegas, Chicago, Indie, Tennessee will be favored
in that game, like and then obviously the two tough,
tough games against Washington and KC before they're by But
I would not be surprised if they got three or
four wins under their belt before they're bye week. And
then the middle part of their schedule that's the meat.
Like they need to do damage against Jacksonville. They need
to beat Dallas at home on a Monday night, and
I know Dallas is good, but you know that's a
winnable game according to the point spread. Then they're a
home favorite against Cleveland, and then their schedule really gets
tough down the stretch, right you know, you're at the
Chargers Denver, Philly, Houston, Kansas City last you know, six
games there with a Giants dabble mixed in in Week seventeen.
I don't know if I love the win total that much,
be perfectly honest with you, I think I would rather
bet them individually as a dog. I'd rather bet Gino
Smith over props. I'd rather bet Ashton genty mid season,
maybe at around coin flip if things are starting to
go well for him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I think there's better ways to attack the Raiders than
sitting on a long term investment and having to be
locked into them winning games down the stretch because they're
gonna be a dog and all those games down the stretch,
So you can just bet them on the money line
and you could feel like you're at least getting some
bank for your buck late in the year.
Speaker 2: I love it. I love it.
Speaker 1: Jared Smith, great breakdown before we let you go, just
tell everybody, like one time, if people are thinking about
making that big change like you did. I mean, you
just uprooted yourself, you went for it.
Speaker 2: You did it. Maybe someone else is out there is
thinking about doing the same thing. Any words of wisdom.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think you can do anything you
want if you really set your mind to it. Like
I never thought that I was gonna get in shape
and have like have abs and like do all this stuff.
I was like, oh, I don't have the genetics for it.
You know, that's what the excuses you make. Or like
I'm never gonna live in Vegas, Like that's like a
pipe dream. But only bachelors do that.
Speaker 4: You just do it. Like, if you want to do something,
just freaking do it, man.
Speaker 7: Like I think we live in this society where everyone
likes to kind of compare to other people they're seeing,
they're on their Instagram feed and they're looking at what
everyone else is doing and it makes them upset.
Speaker 4: And I just like to like, if you just live by.
Speaker 7: The mantra of like you're going to be a mirror,
Like I always want to be a mirror. What am
I doing, you know, to better myself? You know, if
you're constantly trying to compare others and bring others down,
you're not being a mirror. You're you know, you're you're
you're basically being a drain.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 7: We consume so much create. Like that's the attitude that
I usually bring with me every day. Like it's pretty basic.
I like to wake up, I spend time with my dog.
I will focus on my fitness, I focus on my career,
I focus on my mind. How can I improve myself
in those areas? And that's it, And then use.
Speaker 4: Stack days like that together.
Speaker 7: You get a little bit better every day, and eventually,
after a year or two, you're like, oh, look at
all that progress I made. So it's not about instant
gratification and getting to the end. It's just about the
journey and the process.
Speaker 2: I think I love it.
Speaker 1: Jared tell everyone where we can find you at social media,
your discord. You're always a great follow on social media.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I appreciate you having me on Man Andanny. I've
been a fan for a while.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 4: Again, we've had a chance to work together for a
while and.
Speaker 7: Never thought I'd be doing a show a segment we
do on this network after the long winding history. But
it's awesome find me on ex that Jared smith Bett's
Instagram as well.
Speaker 4: The Discord's free, there's a link in the profile. Everything's
free for me.
Speaker 7: Like I was at a point where I was selling,
but now I've reached a point where I don't want
to chase that anymore. Not that it's anything wrong with that,
it's just not for me. So all the picks, everything
that I post is free. I just hope that you
engage with the content, you know, if I post something
like it, retweet it, you know, subscribe.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 7: I have a YouTube channel as well where I post
a lot of the film study content. So that's all
I ask is just be supportive, be engaging and have fun. Man,
we don't really realize that we're talking sports for a living,
Like we're living pretty good right now. We could be
digging ditches or doing something really you know, difficult with
our time, but I feel, you know, grateful that this
is what I get to do every day.
Speaker 1: Love it Jared Smith. Congratulations, man, Yeah, absolutely follow him.
It's all positive. That's what I love about it. And yeah,
I see some of your great breakdown videos.
Speaker 2: So keep up the good work and thank you so
much for joining us, Jared, I appreciate it.
Speaker 4: Have a good one anytime any be Wilbud all.
Speaker 2: Right, Jared Smith.
Speaker 1: Been excited to talk to him for a long time,
So make sure you hit that like button and subscribe
to the channel. And yeah, Jared's Jared's just a great guy.
All of his content is uplifting, it's positive, it's fun.
So two thumbs up for for Jared. All Right, Dan,
let's talk to Miami Dolphins here. Excuse me, Dolphins eight
and a half wins there? I mean, do we need
to do too much analysis? Does this just all come
down to Tua?
Speaker 3: I mean, if it doesn't come down to it, hey,
at least you have a great backup in Zach Wilson,
right if to one of their big why would we
say if when Tua goes down like this, if if.
Speaker 2: It walks like a duck, it talks.
Speaker 3: Like a duck, Andy, it is Tua is going to
get injured, right Quack quack dude, eight and a half.
Juice to the under. This is a perfectly lined game
or a perfectly lined season win in total, and you
know it's just to the under because this is an
under five hundred team. Like, what is there to be
excited about heading into the year if you're a Miami
Dolphins fan or if you're a Miami Dolphins backer. I
guess if you're looking for something to be excited for,
it's that they have a top five easy schedule, you know,
but they do play in the AFC East, which I
think that automatically toughens it. But on paper it's tough,
and they're top five. They're one of the best teams
in rest differential, so they're gonna have spots where they're
better rested than a team. They have spots where they're
going to be playing teams that, on paper should be
worse than them, or at least as bad as them.
Problem for me is Andy, last year, they were a
top five easy schedule. Last year, they were top five
in rest differential, and they couldn't get over five hundred.
I don't see why it changes. Like you have good
coaching continuity, but that just means you're bringing back the
same old and they really had a whole hum free agency.
I want to get your thoughts on free agency until
the big splash. Oh my god, God, what a trade.
They're gonna get better. No, we're gonna ship one of
the guys who was one of our best offensive options
in John hu Smith who came alive, and we're gonna
get rid of Jalen Ramsey. I'm gonna Luke Warham on
Jalen Ramsey at this point in his career. But at
the same time bringing in a safety in Minka Fitzpatrick.
Is he gonna be the difference maker for you? I
don't see it. Man. The only way I would bet
this is under the eight and a half wins. This
is a seven eight win team. This is a team
who I'm gonna be looking to fade, you know, try
and jump in on spots with him. But there's nothing
I'm excited about with this team. I think you know
they need a regime change in the worst way personally.
Speaker 1: All right, So PFF ranked them twenty fifth on offense
seventeenth on defense. They were six and five when Tua
was their leading passer. So it's like it doesn't even
look great when Tua was playing.
Speaker 2: All right, Let's take a look at the schedule.
Speaker 1: At Colts, Patriots, at Bill's, Jets at Panthers, Chargers at
Brown's at Falcons, Ravens, Bills, Commanders, and that's overseas. Then
they have the bye week they do get the Saints
or at Jets, at Steelers, Bengals, Bucks at Patriots. I
will bring this up, only three away games in cold
weather after October twenty sixth, so and at Patriots is
in the last week. Who knows what that's gonna be like.
Then they've got at Steelers and at Jets. Added some
offensive line help. They did add some linebackers and saved
the Alexander Madison the Ultimate as everybody played fantasy football
owned Alexander Madison at one point.
Speaker 2: I feel like he's a guy that likes everybody.
Speaker 3: Everybody has the sisterhood of the Traveling Madison. Yeah, everybody
has had him on their team at some point.
Speaker 2: I feel like there's a team that just is wonky.
Speaker 1: Is wonky good or wonky bad? The Tyreek Hills situation
was bad last year.
Speaker 2: He's a little bit aging. Who knows.
Speaker 1: With Waddle's health, it's do or die here for to Uh,
I'm gonna I'm gonna pick the Dolphins as my wonky
good team and I'm gonna go over.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get him to ten, right.
Speaker 3: I mean, the schedule allows for it. The schedule allows
for it.
Speaker 1: Man, they can they can navigate some of these games.
That commander's game is tough, but it's overseas to be
that levels of the playing field a little bit, not
having some of those not having some of those those
away games.
Speaker 2: At the end of the season out in the cold.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is we've seen some of the
other teams get really like tired playing down in Miami
when it's warm in the later months. So, uh, I'm
gonna roll the dice that TUIs days a little bit
more healthy, Like.
Speaker 2: Maybe runs out of bounds, just throw the ball away, do.
Speaker 3: Not, It's not gonna happen Like this is like how
many times do we have to do this with Tua? Like, yeah,
he should have learned.
Speaker 2: Right, I know, I know so.
Speaker 3: And he's also if he's also going out of bounds
if he's also hindering what makes him special, and that's
some of that escapability. And for what it's worth, when
Tool was playing at his best, it was thanks to
his fearlessness. It wasn't thanks to his pocket presence. Andy,
and and that's kind of gone out the window.
Speaker 1: It's a great point. It's a great point. I'm I'm
I'm taking a chance with the Dolphins. I'm I'm fine.
If I look foolish, I will go. I will go
with him as a surprise team. I'm gonna get him
to ten wins here. So give me the plus money
here and I will be happy to hedge this in
the middle of the season when they only have three
wins in week nine. So uh yeah, So Dan, you're
going under. I think that's the very smart play. But
if you're rolling the dice and you gotta yeah, yeah,
I'm taking the over here. So all right, guys, it's
gonna do it for us. Leave us a comment in
the comment section. Let's announce the winner here, Dan, jump
on here, the winner of Ski profit. I think they're
still here because they just made a comment. Uh, just strategist,
you have randomly been.
Speaker 3: Selected as the put it into a random generator and
you are the big winner. So yeah, hit up, hit
up customer support.
Speaker 2: We'll get you hooked up there with some swag.
Speaker 3: We love doing our guest the score. We have more
future ones coming up. But this is the beauty is
even if you're commenting below. In the comments, we didn't
only look at people that guess the score. Every single
person who commented below was entered on in so guys
engage with the show. We're so close to two hundred
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will get you hooked up and we'll be back with
some more games for the folks.
Speaker 2: This weekendy for sure.
Speaker 1: Absolutely Tomorrow's shows jam packed. I think we have five
guests coming on, so it's gonna be rapid, rapid fire plays.
Kylie Anthony is gonna join us. We're gonna do sell
me after having the week off, so we have a
huge show tomorrow. Make sure you grab our golf and
UFC best bet of the week.
Speaker 2: We only had two plays this week, this is one
of them.
Speaker 1: We cashed our five dollars Tuesday play yesterday, So looking
forward to getting off to a good start at the
Scottish Open. And that thing starts like at midnight tonight,
that tournament does, so make sure you get it locked
in asap before it comes down off the board. Hit
the like button subscribe to the channel. Thanks to Jared
Smith for joining us, Thanks to Ross, Thanks Togiohnny. We'll
see you guys tomorrow. Good luck on your bets and
take care