WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.480 --> 00:00:03.439 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics, 2 00:00:03.560 --> 00:00:06.360 especially on today. I'm joined by Andy Milburn. Of course 3 00:00:06.400 --> 00:00:09.199 you know him. All his links are in the description. 4 00:00:09.279 --> 00:00:12.160 Check him out there. Of course he's got a great 5 00:00:12.199 --> 00:00:14.320 new article that he put out on War on the Rocks. 6 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:16.640 That link is also in the descriptions to check it out, 7 00:00:18.399 --> 00:00:20.960 and basically, I want to do it justice. You know, 8 00:00:21.000 --> 00:00:24.679 it's called Gaza and the conduct of Urban war, Civilian harm, 9 00:00:24.879 --> 00:00:29.879 risk and responsibility. The first line pops out to me. 10 00:00:30.559 --> 00:00:33.840 You know, urban warfare is often invoked as an alibi, 11 00:00:35.079 --> 00:00:39.520 dench terrain and embedded enemy, human shields and perfect intelligence. 12 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:43.039 You guys, we're gonna talk about the article, but please 13 00:00:43.079 --> 00:00:46.600 go check it out. That link is in the description. Andy. 14 00:00:46.640 --> 00:00:48.560 What's up man, It's good to see you. 15 00:00:49.200 --> 00:00:51.399 Yeah, good to see you too. Thanks very much for 16 00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:52.000 having me on. 17 00:00:52.119 --> 00:00:53.880 Please, this is your shiltern down. 18 00:00:54.479 --> 00:00:57.719 So I think you know, probably the best way of 19 00:00:57.759 --> 00:01:00.359 doing this, of course you're the producer, is I can 20 00:01:00.399 --> 00:01:03.640 give you just an overview of the article for those 21 00:01:03.679 --> 00:01:07.879 of our audience it can save please do read it 22 00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:11.719 save you that troup. By the way, so the article 23 00:01:11.760 --> 00:01:17.359 came out in War on the Rocks yesterday. And you 24 00:01:17.400 --> 00:01:20.959 know I've written I'm not I'm not a prolific article writer, 25 00:01:21.040 --> 00:01:23.640 but I've had a number of articles published, and I 26 00:01:23.640 --> 00:01:27.840 would say just as far as direct feedback, this is 27 00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:32.760 this is solicited, more direct feedback than any other article 28 00:01:33.079 --> 00:01:34.840 that I have written, just in the you know, the 29 00:01:34.840 --> 00:01:38.840 first twenty four hours it was out. It was published 30 00:01:39.079 --> 00:01:44.680 in the Early Bird, which is kind of the circular 31 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:49.560 that goes out every day. It's not sent out by 32 00:01:49.719 --> 00:01:52.239 d O D, but it goes out throughout d O D. 33 00:01:53.439 --> 00:01:57.359 It's produced by I think it's the Military Times, and 34 00:01:57.400 --> 00:02:00.640 it's a compilation of top you know, defense use over 35 00:02:00.719 --> 00:02:02.799 the previous twenty four hour period. And it was on 36 00:02:02.840 --> 00:02:07.000 that this morning, and yeah, I didn't. You know, honestly, 37 00:02:07.519 --> 00:02:09.759 this is a topic, as you know, that I've been 38 00:02:10.439 --> 00:02:14.479 looking at researching for a while. It plays to my background. 39 00:02:14.479 --> 00:02:17.280 I'll talk about that in a little bit, and it's 40 00:02:17.360 --> 00:02:19.599 part of the research for my book. I do want 41 00:02:19.639 --> 00:02:23.919 to say before I started talking about this that you know, 42 00:02:23.960 --> 00:02:27.039 the research, a lot of it came from personal interviews. 43 00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:33.759 Over fifty interviews conducted with members of the IDF, most 44 00:02:33.800 --> 00:02:37.639 of whom were involved in the targeting process. At some stage. 45 00:02:37.639 --> 00:02:39.520 A lot of them were commanders, some of them were 46 00:02:39.879 --> 00:02:48.000 intelligence officers, Target tears, and even even the ones who 47 00:02:48.120 --> 00:02:53.439 defended the methodology were open and honest about how it 48 00:02:53.520 --> 00:02:56.759 is done. So I was able to get beneath the 49 00:02:56.840 --> 00:02:59.879 surface of you know, hey, we have these procedures, and 50 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:06.360 look at how exactly they those procedures were implemented. So yeah, 51 00:03:06.439 --> 00:03:11.719 so you know, to to your point, the urban warfare 52 00:03:11.759 --> 00:03:15.800 is often treated as an alibi. You know, the dense 53 00:03:15.919 --> 00:03:21.599 terrain and embedded enemy human shields, just the uncertainty of war, 54 00:03:21.639 --> 00:03:25.240 imperfect intelligence, you know, all of those that kind of 55 00:03:25.360 --> 00:03:31.199 use to to justify harmed to civilians or to explain 56 00:03:31.280 --> 00:03:35.520 civilian casualties. You know, they're just my article is well, 57 00:03:35.560 --> 00:03:38.599 no that by themselves, they are not. You know, all 58 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:42.520 of those things are real, but they don't explain outcomes 59 00:03:42.560 --> 00:03:46.560 by themselves. Because every modern military that has fought in 60 00:03:46.680 --> 00:03:51.199 cities in recent years faces uncertainty and civilian presence. And 61 00:03:51.240 --> 00:03:57.520 what distinguishes campaigns it isn't how commanders respond to that uncertainty. 62 00:03:58.319 --> 00:04:02.080 It is I mean it is it's how commanders respond 63 00:04:02.120 --> 00:04:06.680 to that uncertainty. It isn't the uncertainty itself it's you know, 64 00:04:06.719 --> 00:04:11.599 how do they prioritize risk, what levels of civilian harm, 65 00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:16.600 the civilian death are treated as as acceptable. And that's 66 00:04:16.639 --> 00:04:19.759 the core argument of my article. And I you know, 67 00:04:19.800 --> 00:04:21.759 I begin I point out the scale of civilian and 68 00:04:21.959 --> 00:04:27.279 death in Gaza is exceptional in terms in total numbers, 69 00:04:27.319 --> 00:04:30.199 and I talk about the fact that you know, we're 70 00:04:30.199 --> 00:04:33.480 in the seventies of thousands, and that the Lancet British 71 00:04:33.560 --> 00:04:37.920 paper points out that indeed the actual numbers may be 72 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:39.920 as high as forty percent higher than that when you 73 00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:45.120 factor in indirect deaths from starvation, from lack of medical care, 74 00:04:47.160 --> 00:04:51.040 you know, polluted water, whatever it may be. And so 75 00:04:51.720 --> 00:04:54.399 you're probably talking about civilian death hole of over one 76 00:04:54.439 --> 00:04:58.079 hundred thousand, which is staggering. But then you know, you 77 00:04:58.160 --> 00:05:01.680 have to ask, so what percentage of of those tens 78 00:05:01.680 --> 00:05:09.040 of thousands are combatants? That's really the question. And you know, 79 00:05:09.160 --> 00:05:16.360 even when you look at just the demographics, the undisputed figures, right, 80 00:05:16.959 --> 00:05:21.959 two thirds of those figures are women and children. Now, Hamas, 81 00:05:22.600 --> 00:05:26.319 aside from using them as suicide bombers, Hamas doesn't use 82 00:05:26.399 --> 00:05:30.240 women as fighters. And by children I mean sixteen or 83 00:05:30.279 --> 00:05:33.600 below generally, you know, too low to be to below 84 00:05:33.639 --> 00:05:38.519 the military age males. Right, So two thirds of women 85 00:05:38.600 --> 00:05:43.680 and children obviously not combatants. Now, that already puts Gas's 86 00:05:43.759 --> 00:05:48.160 death toll of civilians ratio civilians combatants on a different 87 00:05:48.240 --> 00:05:52.000 level than, for instance, and mos All, where combatants were 88 00:05:52.079 --> 00:05:55.040 around fifty. You know, people can challenge my numbers, you 89 00:05:55.040 --> 00:05:58.879 can look these up. But between forty five and sixty 90 00:05:58.879 --> 00:06:02.879 percent of total deaths right, and Fallujah around the same. 91 00:06:02.920 --> 00:06:04.879 You'd have to go all the way back to Grosny 92 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:11.199 right in the nineties, Grosney one and two, which Grosny 93 00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:15.319 is commonly regarded as the most the most civilian death 94 00:06:15.399 --> 00:06:19.360 intensive battle since the Secondorld War. You'd have to go 95 00:06:19.439 --> 00:06:23.279 back to that find comparable numbers, and even then they're 96 00:06:23.279 --> 00:06:26.600 not quite at the level. The ratios aren't quite the 97 00:06:26.639 --> 00:06:30.360 same Grosney it was about it was two thirds, it 98 00:06:30.399 --> 00:06:35.120 was around seventy percent. But recently this is coming from 99 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:39.160 the Israelis, uncovered by Investigator for Reporting, and again you 100 00:06:39.199 --> 00:06:44.639 can look this up. The Israelis themselves have have come 101 00:06:44.680 --> 00:06:48.519 up with figures that show that eighty three percent of 102 00:06:48.560 --> 00:06:53.360 those killed were civilians, which is an extraordinary, extraordinarily high toll. 103 00:06:53.439 --> 00:06:56.399 And When I say extraordinary, I'm not just shooting from 104 00:06:56.439 --> 00:06:58.879 the hip. I mean compared to h it's great. To 105 00:06:59.000 --> 00:07:00.759 other battles and one afare right? 106 00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:02.720 Was that leaked? 107 00:07:03.240 --> 00:07:03.759 What was that? 108 00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:04.160 Was that? 109 00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:07.480 Yeah? It was leaked. Yeah, it was leaked, and I 110 00:07:07.519 --> 00:07:15.680 was picked up by the Guardian and Israeli. I can't 111 00:07:15.680 --> 00:07:18.360 remember the name of the outlet, it's it's a strange name. 112 00:07:18.399 --> 00:07:22.399 It's plus nine seven two or something, but it's a 113 00:07:22.399 --> 00:07:28.120 well known Israeli media outlet and they have published those reports. 114 00:07:28.199 --> 00:07:32.399 So that's irrefutable that Israeli intelligence came up with those figures. 115 00:07:32.439 --> 00:07:36.480 Those aren't produced by the Health Ministry or anything else 116 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:39.519 that coming from the Israelis themselves. So when you know, 117 00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:43.240 my point is this, when civilian death reaches that scale 118 00:07:44.199 --> 00:07:49.040 and shows that level of demographic graphic consistency, something's going on, 119 00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:53.720 all right, Something's going on beyond terrain density or enemy tactics, 120 00:07:54.000 --> 00:07:56.000 because we had all of that shit and Mozar and 121 00:07:56.040 --> 00:07:59.360 flu Ja I was involved in both battles, and so 122 00:07:59.439 --> 00:08:03.240 that's you know, that that invites a closer analysis of 123 00:08:03.480 --> 00:08:07.000 how force was applied because they're in lies the answer 124 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:09.199 to why those figures are so high, and this is 125 00:08:09.240 --> 00:08:13.040 an argument about intent. Okay, I'm not I'm not going 126 00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.879 launching down the genocide route. It's an argument about process. 127 00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:21.399 Civilian deaths and war are not random accidents, that the 128 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:25.240 predictable outcome of how targets are, how targets are defined, 129 00:08:26.120 --> 00:08:31.680 how intelligence uncertainty is handled, what what weapons are chosen, 130 00:08:32.200 --> 00:08:35.279 and how much risk commanders are willing to accept or 131 00:08:36.039 --> 00:08:39.639 for them for their own forces or to transfer. At 132 00:08:39.639 --> 00:08:42.360 what point do they transfer that risk? What's the threshold 133 00:08:42.360 --> 00:08:45.919 for them transferring that risk onto this fullian population? And look, 134 00:08:45.960 --> 00:08:49.600 I've commanded as un D and this isn't me chest 135 00:08:49.639 --> 00:08:53.000 beating here, but I've commanded US forces in urban combat, 136 00:08:53.600 --> 00:08:59.519 including in Fallujah and mos All. I've you know, I've 137 00:09:00.320 --> 00:09:03.080 with the moral weight of approving strikes where civilians might 138 00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:07.080 be present, where you're balancing that against your obligation to 139 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:11.919 support the forces in the fight themselves, knowing that delays 140 00:09:11.960 --> 00:09:15.000 may result in more casualties for them. You know, I 141 00:09:15.039 --> 00:09:18.440 get it's those are not easy decisions, but I've had 142 00:09:18.440 --> 00:09:23.480 to make those decisions scores for be hundreds of times. 143 00:09:24.120 --> 00:09:28.080 And you know the other piece is that I know 144 00:09:28.159 --> 00:09:31.159 as well as anyone that uncertainty never disappears and more. 145 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:36.559 But in professional militaries it's supposed to tighten restraint, not 146 00:09:36.679 --> 00:09:41.840 loosen it. So when intelligence is ambiguous, when you don't 147 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:45.000 have a good handle on civilian patterns of life, or 148 00:09:45.039 --> 00:09:48.000 when you lose custody of a target, and you know, 149 00:09:48.080 --> 00:09:51.720 I can get into that moment. What that means, The 150 00:09:51.799 --> 00:09:55.840 expectation is that strikes either slow down or they stop. 151 00:09:56.720 --> 00:10:01.559 You know, you pause precisely because the risk of killing 152 00:10:01.559 --> 00:10:07.519 civilians increases. And you may ask, well, why do you care? Well, 153 00:10:07.559 --> 00:10:11.840 you care because you know, as I've said before, we fight. 154 00:10:12.480 --> 00:10:16.200 We fight with the values that we represent in Western militaries, right, 155 00:10:16.279 --> 00:10:18.480 we don't adopt those at the enemy. But even if 156 00:10:18.519 --> 00:10:20.759 you don't give a shit, right, even if you don't 157 00:10:20.759 --> 00:10:23.600 give a shit about the civilian population, there are good 158 00:10:23.639 --> 00:10:27.399 pragmatic reasons not to slaughter them in mass, because you 159 00:10:27.480 --> 00:10:30.559 are you may be solving the immediate problem, but you're 160 00:10:30.559 --> 00:10:33.639 going to generate far greater problems for yourself down the line. 161 00:10:33.639 --> 00:10:35.720 And again I'm not shooting from the hippie. You can 162 00:10:35.759 --> 00:10:38.399 look at studies. There's a very good one done by 163 00:10:38.559 --> 00:10:46.240 rand on insurgent regeneration in Afghanistan and Iraq and the 164 00:10:46.360 --> 00:10:50.720 link between that and civilian casualties, and there is definitely 165 00:10:50.720 --> 00:10:53.720 a strong link. In other words, you start killing civilians 166 00:10:53.759 --> 00:10:59.159 willy nilly, you're creating anger, resentment that simmers and feeds 167 00:10:59.240 --> 00:11:02.559 right into that insurgent narrative. I mean, that's not rocket 168 00:11:02.600 --> 00:11:06.679 sciences that you can you can understand that. And in Gaza, 169 00:11:07.200 --> 00:11:14.120 I can only imagine where something like seventy five percent 170 00:11:14.600 --> 00:11:17.879 of families have lost people I mean close, you know, 171 00:11:18.000 --> 00:11:22.840 the families, close relatives. I can't imagine the level of 172 00:11:22.879 --> 00:11:25.080 resembling an anger that is simmering. And if you and 173 00:11:25.159 --> 00:11:27.759 I were in that position, we would want to get revenge, 174 00:11:28.399 --> 00:11:31.159 even though we're not vengeful people, be at least you're not. 175 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:35.960 But in Gaza, I think that's. 176 00:11:36.159 --> 00:11:40.440 I mean, that's just human nature, right like you know, 177 00:11:40.720 --> 00:11:42.440 of course your mom dies. 178 00:11:42.919 --> 00:11:46.519 Why why would you imagine otherwise? Why would you imagine 179 00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:52.039 that a population that is that has incurred that number 180 00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:54.840 of casualties, whether it's seventy thousand or one hundred thousand 181 00:11:54.879 --> 00:12:02.000 in a in a two million, two million a total population, 182 00:12:02.200 --> 00:12:06.120 why would you assume that life would return to normal 183 00:12:06.200 --> 00:12:08.519 after that and there would be no sense of resentment 184 00:12:08.559 --> 00:12:10.799 with that. I mean, imagine that happening in the United 185 00:12:10.840 --> 00:12:15.799 States city. I mean all these casualties too have occurred 186 00:12:15.799 --> 00:12:18.919 in an area roughly the size of Philadelphia. So can 187 00:12:18.960 --> 00:12:23.279 you imagine one hundred thousand deaths and solicitious everywhere you 188 00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:28.480 turn right at any single building. So anyway, that that 189 00:12:29.039 --> 00:12:30.919 you know, for those of who accuse me of being 190 00:12:30.960 --> 00:12:34.840 a bleeding heart and who cares, and there are pragmatic reasons. 191 00:12:35.000 --> 00:12:37.720 I personally care about the legal reasons, and I care 192 00:12:37.720 --> 00:12:40.840 about the ethical reasons because I represent I did represent 193 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:43.480 the United States military, and I believe in the values 194 00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:48.080 that we that that we represent, right, but there are 195 00:12:48.080 --> 00:12:50.039 those who don't give a shit about those values. And 196 00:12:50.080 --> 00:12:53.799 I would say, well, there's good pragmatic reasons, and you're 197 00:12:53.840 --> 00:12:58.440 gonna undermine your cause. It's a you're gonna tactical success 198 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:03.320 will lead to strategic fail if you're simply slaughtering civilians anyway, 199 00:13:03.480 --> 00:13:06.200 So you know I talked about, Hey, when when the 200 00:13:06.279 --> 00:13:08.879 level of uncertainty goes up and you know you're not 201 00:13:08.919 --> 00:13:12.799 getting good intelligence, you're not getting good patterns of life, 202 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:17.639 then then then you have to or you know, for 203 00:13:17.759 --> 00:13:20.840 us in the US, that means we show more restraint. 204 00:13:20.879 --> 00:13:23.840 That doesn't mean we see strikes altogether, we don't support 205 00:13:23.879 --> 00:13:27.159 our forces. We find, you know, other ways of doing it. 206 00:13:27.159 --> 00:13:30.159 Perhaps you know, we late, we we have a greater 207 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:35.440 alliance on direct fire, or we move more cautiously, and 208 00:13:35.600 --> 00:13:39.320 sometimes that means incurring greater risks your own troops. And 209 00:13:39.360 --> 00:13:42.120 that's just the nature of the game, that is, that's 210 00:13:42.120 --> 00:13:46.759 what we're in. I don't mean to say suggest, right, 211 00:13:48.360 --> 00:13:52.759 And you know I was in Fallujah and and I 212 00:13:52.759 --> 00:13:58.320 can tell you in absolute contrast to the way the 213 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:01.480 IDF operated in Gaza. We went in and cleared every 214 00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:04.679 single building. We weren't allowed to blow buildings away. We 215 00:14:04.759 --> 00:14:09.120 could under certain circumstances we were taking fire, but the 216 00:14:09.240 --> 00:14:13.399 level of authorization for that was relatively high as a 217 00:14:13.440 --> 00:14:17.879 customary battalion level. And yes, that was frustrating at times, 218 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:24.000 and it was terrifying. Yeah, absolutely. I mean I can 219 00:14:24.039 --> 00:14:26.519 tell you too as an advisor, where every time we 220 00:14:26.559 --> 00:14:28.840 went in we cleared buildings that had to be an 221 00:14:28.840 --> 00:14:32.440 American leading the way into you know, knocking down the door, 222 00:14:32.519 --> 00:14:35.320 going down, going through the fatal funnel, down that hallway 223 00:14:35.320 --> 00:14:38.399 in the dark, just waiting for someone with a PKAM 224 00:14:38.879 --> 00:14:42.720 to let rip. It was a terrifying, bloody experience. And 225 00:14:42.759 --> 00:14:46.200 when you were inside those buildings, and remember our mvgs 226 00:14:46.279 --> 00:14:49.039 and no especially in the Marine Corps then were pieces 227 00:14:49.080 --> 00:14:54.000 of crap. And so you were at a disadvantage to 228 00:14:54.080 --> 00:14:58.080 your enemy. I don't mean to digress here, but absolutely 229 00:14:58.120 --> 00:15:01.080 you were at a disadvantage. Doesn't matter that you represented 230 00:15:01.159 --> 00:15:03.639 the most powerful military in the world with all the 231 00:15:03.679 --> 00:15:07.240 resources we have. When you went in that door and 232 00:15:07.279 --> 00:15:10.840 it was you leading the way with one guy you know, 233 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:14.679 just stay staggered behind you, it was you too against 234 00:15:14.679 --> 00:15:17.519 whomever was in that house, and you were and because 235 00:15:17.519 --> 00:15:19.840 you were moving and you were you were silhouetted. You 236 00:15:19.840 --> 00:15:22.039 were at a disadvantage. But we did that time and 237 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:25.600 time again. Now, of course I would hope that now, 238 00:15:25.639 --> 00:15:27.200 if we had to do it, we'd do a lot 239 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:31.200 more with unmanned systems. But but my point is this 240 00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:35.159 that no one can accuse me again of not understanding 241 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:38.279 the problem. Oh yeah, I understand the problem, and I've 242 00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:40.840 been at at at the kind of the dog's body 243 00:15:40.919 --> 00:15:50.480 end of this, so anyway, but uh, in in Gaza, 244 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:56.639 uncertainty functioned in the opposite direction. It created license rather 245 00:15:56.679 --> 00:15:59.200 than restraint. That's you know, and in my article I 246 00:15:59.240 --> 00:16:03.039 show examples of this intelligence gaps were treated permissively. 247 00:16:03.240 --> 00:16:05.639 So I was like, essentially like, oh, we don't know exactly, 248 00:16:05.720 --> 00:16:07.519 but like let's just drop whatever. 249 00:16:07.639 --> 00:16:10.600 But what the hell, yeah, because otherwise our guys are 250 00:16:10.720 --> 00:16:15.200 going to have to go in there, you know. And 251 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:17.360 by the way, it's just one of the last analogy 252 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:20.440 with Flujah we had. We didn't have as many tanks 253 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:23.720 as Israeli's had, certainly not I mean I'm talking about 254 00:16:23.759 --> 00:16:27.639 it on the marine side, not at all, but we 255 00:16:27.759 --> 00:16:29.960 had the ones we had to use the good effect 256 00:16:30.039 --> 00:16:33.720 and the h and they were great. They are actually 257 00:16:33.840 --> 00:16:36.200 the Marine Corps doesn't have tanks anymore, but they were 258 00:16:36.519 --> 00:16:42.519 an extraordinary, extraordinarily useful asset. And believe it or not, 259 00:16:43.399 --> 00:16:46.759 tanks actually help rather than indirect fire. Tanks help you 260 00:16:46.799 --> 00:16:49.399 cut down on colateral damage. Yes, I know that you 261 00:16:49.440 --> 00:16:52.840 know the velocity of the tank shell, but I'm but 262 00:16:53.159 --> 00:16:56.000 I'm talking about being able to pinpoint targets, to use 263 00:16:56.080 --> 00:17:00.639 thermals and all these other things to not not just shooting, 264 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:04.319 but to establish where the thread is and to cover 265 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:09.000 yourself as you cross danger areas. Anyway, remember what I'm saying, 266 00:17:09.640 --> 00:17:16.440 and I use examples here in Gaza. The IDF define 267 00:17:16.480 --> 00:17:21.480 target defined targets very very broadly. And if you you know, 268 00:17:21.559 --> 00:17:25.039 as I have done, and examine this and looked at okay, 269 00:17:25.799 --> 00:17:28.319 why is this building being targeted? Well, we had a 270 00:17:28.359 --> 00:17:30.599 report from such and such that it was being used 271 00:17:30.599 --> 00:17:33.640 as a weapons storage place. How old is that? Report's 272 00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:38.079 three or four weeks? Okay, what exactly you know is 273 00:17:38.119 --> 00:17:41.119 being stored there? Well, you know, we think it's this 274 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:45.119 or that. It's very vague stuff. And of course things 275 00:17:45.400 --> 00:17:47.839 and people get moved around all the time in an 276 00:17:47.960 --> 00:17:48.839 urban environment. 277 00:17:49.480 --> 00:17:51.960 So let's say that'd be something if they had a 278 00:17:52.000 --> 00:17:55.880 report like that, Right, there's a weapons store at a 279 00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:59.079 certain building that's three or four weeks older. Report, they 280 00:17:59.079 --> 00:18:02.079 wouldn't send like a drone or some try to get 281 00:18:02.119 --> 00:18:06.039 some eyes on on it and see like confirming maybe no. 282 00:18:06.160 --> 00:18:08.319 And that's the other thing. They had more drones and 283 00:18:08.359 --> 00:18:11.200 we had we didn't have any drones in Fluijah. We 284 00:18:11.279 --> 00:18:14.599 had drones and mosol, but there's no shortage of assets. 285 00:18:15.039 --> 00:18:17.359 And where I'm heading on this is so yes, you 286 00:18:17.440 --> 00:18:20.559 confirm and then we've you know, we've got a termine. 287 00:18:20.599 --> 00:18:25.319 In the US military, it's been overused, but the unblinking 288 00:18:25.359 --> 00:18:29.160 I right. So you lock on to the target, whether 289 00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:33.039 it's a human or it's its infrastructure, and you hold 290 00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:35.599 on to that to determine that you're getting the right 291 00:18:35.640 --> 00:18:40.000 person if it's a person, and to ensure that there 292 00:18:40.079 --> 00:18:42.480 is you know that there aren't civilians wandering in and 293 00:18:42.519 --> 00:18:44.880 out of the target area the area you're going to head. 294 00:18:45.079 --> 00:18:47.960 The Israelis don't do that as a practice at all, 295 00:18:48.759 --> 00:18:52.359 and you know you're familiar with just as an example, 296 00:18:52.400 --> 00:18:55.200 the only strike they really investigated was the time when 297 00:18:55.319 --> 00:18:58.960 seven do you remember when seven World Central Kitchen Aid 298 00:18:59.039 --> 00:19:03.359 workers were killed in a convoy well marked, coordinated through 299 00:19:03.400 --> 00:19:07.920 the IDF and and there's you know, horrific I've seen 300 00:19:07.960 --> 00:19:13.680 horrific video with that, where each vehicle was destroyed in succession, 301 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:18.680 right and everyone inside killed. Well, they lost They didn't. 302 00:19:19.200 --> 00:19:22.400 First of all, they didn't. They didn't track that convoy. 303 00:19:23.039 --> 00:19:26.079 And having been on the other other side of the coin, 304 00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:30.799 I think, as you know, being in Ukraine running humanitarian 305 00:19:30.839 --> 00:19:34.960 convoys under fire and coordinating with the Ukrainian military being 306 00:19:35.000 --> 00:19:37.799 tracked all the time by friendly force is very important. 307 00:19:38.119 --> 00:19:41.759 They didn't do that, and they didn't, you know, they 308 00:19:41.559 --> 00:19:46.279 they weren't tracking what they thought was her mass target. 309 00:19:47.000 --> 00:19:49.880 They lost custody and then they picked it up and 310 00:19:50.319 --> 00:19:53.160 assumed it was the Weld Central kitchen convoy. But there's 311 00:19:53.200 --> 00:19:56.319 no verification and so they blew it away. Now got 312 00:19:56.759 --> 00:20:03.079 that case was investigated because the Australian government launched a 313 00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:05.480 I mean, it was terrible publicity for them. The Austrian 314 00:20:05.480 --> 00:20:10.319 government launched i mean an official complaint. But there are 315 00:20:10.319 --> 00:20:13.079 many other cases of that happening. That was kind of 316 00:20:13.119 --> 00:20:15.200 the norm. It was just that one that was the 317 00:20:15.240 --> 00:20:20.240 one time they investigated it. And so you know, civilian 318 00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:24.200 presence was frequently just assumed away rather than actively assessed. 319 00:20:24.759 --> 00:20:26.640 And you can look at my articles for you know, 320 00:20:26.680 --> 00:20:29.799 backing evidence backing this up. And so the result isn't 321 00:20:29.880 --> 00:20:35.200 just incidental civilian but it's repeated death. Okay, it's not 322 00:20:35.960 --> 00:20:38.920 mistakes happen. You hear that, Well, you know this shit happens. Yeah, 323 00:20:38.920 --> 00:20:41.400 it does. Sadly, of course it does, even when you 324 00:20:41.480 --> 00:20:45.440 take taking all the precautions in the world. But repeated 325 00:20:45.480 --> 00:20:50.319 civilian death at scale that reflects the pattern with how 326 00:20:50.359 --> 00:20:54.519 decidents were being made. It's not the difficulty in the environment. 327 00:20:56.920 --> 00:21:04.799 And you know, you've You've probably read John Spencer's article 328 00:21:06.119 --> 00:21:09.839 saying that the you know, the IDF shows unparalleled restraint. 329 00:21:09.880 --> 00:21:12.880 That's the term that he uses that no Other's kind. 330 00:21:12.720 --> 00:21:15.279 Of scary that he could, like you, talk in absolutes 331 00:21:15.359 --> 00:21:18.839 like that, that they use unparalleled restraint. I mean, that's 332 00:21:18.880 --> 00:21:20.839 I feel like that's a bit of a stretch. 333 00:21:21.160 --> 00:21:27.599 But yeah, I mean, what's your author, doesn't it he unparalleled? 334 00:21:27.640 --> 00:21:31.319 Never before he uses a lot of absolutes in the 335 00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:34.640 first few paragraphs as an article on Newsweek magazine. It 336 00:21:34.759 --> 00:21:38.480 was republished elsewhere. He's appeared on CNN, major networks, and 337 00:21:38.519 --> 00:21:44.000 he's cited by This isn't about being pro or counter IDF. 338 00:21:44.039 --> 00:21:45.640 By the way, I do want to say this, and 339 00:21:45.720 --> 00:21:49.599 again no one can. They can't. But you know, I've 340 00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:53.799 been involved in in efforts to support and do things 341 00:21:54.880 --> 00:21:57.880 for the IDF in the past. There's very probably, i 342 00:21:57.880 --> 00:22:00.480 would say very few people of my pier group within 343 00:22:00.519 --> 00:22:05.039 the military special operations community who are more closely involved 344 00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:12.000 with activities and efforts in support of Israel. So my 345 00:22:12.119 --> 00:22:17.200 credentials there are solid. I'm not jumping on the anti 346 00:22:17.240 --> 00:22:21.240 Israeli bandwagon here by any means, but I'm talking here. 347 00:22:21.359 --> 00:22:26.000 Remember about process. This is not an emotional argument, and 348 00:22:26.079 --> 00:22:32.759 so Spencer's arguments have been picked up by those defending 349 00:22:33.039 --> 00:22:39.000 Israeli methodology as hey, look we've got this expert. Spencer 350 00:22:39.039 --> 00:22:42.400 calls himself an expert on his website. That's his choice. 351 00:22:42.799 --> 00:22:48.000 I personally avoid that term expert. I use the term student. 352 00:22:48.039 --> 00:22:51.839 I'm a student of modern war, an unwilling student at times, 353 00:22:53.400 --> 00:22:55.319 not an expert. And why does that matter? I think 354 00:22:55.359 --> 00:22:59.519 when you start calling yourself an expert, I think there's 355 00:22:59.559 --> 00:23:02.519 a danger that subconsciously you're going to cut yourself off 356 00:23:02.519 --> 00:23:07.440 from ultimate points of view. Right anyway, So, you know, 357 00:23:07.559 --> 00:23:10.759 for instance, Spencer's article, and I do urge people to 358 00:23:10.799 --> 00:23:17.839 read it, he talks about he you know, he says that, hey, listen, 359 00:23:17.880 --> 00:23:21.319 the Israeli is used this process. It's just the same 360 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:25.799 process as we use. But actually they're even more restrictive 361 00:23:25.960 --> 00:23:29.039 on how they exercise restraint. 362 00:23:29.359 --> 00:23:33.160 Well, so his articles, his article is essentially like the 363 00:23:33.599 --> 00:23:36.440 not defending IDEF in terms of like saying that they'd 364 00:23:36.519 --> 00:23:40.200 done more to show restraint than the American forces did 365 00:23:40.240 --> 00:23:44.400 in Fallujah or Massoul or any urban urban warfare. 366 00:23:45.240 --> 00:23:49.240 Yeah, yeah, exactly. So it's not the existence of the process. 367 00:23:49.319 --> 00:23:55.599 The process ostensibly is there, you know, targeting cells, legal advisors, 368 00:23:55.640 --> 00:24:02.839 precision guided with munitions, warning procedures. It's how they are applied, Okay, 369 00:24:02.880 --> 00:24:06.400 it's how they function under pressure that is the real 370 00:24:06.440 --> 00:24:10.480 truth teller. And I can't imagine from what Spencer has 371 00:24:10.519 --> 00:24:13.640 written that he really took a close look at how 372 00:24:14.000 --> 00:24:19.160 these processes functioned under pressure. I think I don't know 373 00:24:19.240 --> 00:24:21.279 how he wrote his article, but it looks as though 374 00:24:21.279 --> 00:24:27.519 he just took it as face value. So all these things, 375 00:24:27.559 --> 00:24:30.799 you know, precision guide ammunitions, targeting cells, warning procedures are 376 00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:35.400 often cited as evidence that everything that's done to protect civilians. 377 00:24:36.599 --> 00:24:39.519 But let's, you know, let's take some examples I've already 378 00:24:39.559 --> 00:24:46.480 talked about. I've already talked about the how intelligence was interpreted, 379 00:24:46.960 --> 00:24:51.599 how the Israelis dealt with intelligence uncertainty. Right, they accepted 380 00:24:51.640 --> 00:24:54.279 a very high level of intelligence and then for us, 381 00:24:54.319 --> 00:24:58.359 what would be an unacceptable level of then intelligence uncertainty. 382 00:24:58.680 --> 00:25:01.839 They didn't follow through, they did double sauce it, they 383 00:25:01.880 --> 00:25:06.480 didn't employ a blinking eye approach, they didn't track civilian 384 00:25:06.519 --> 00:25:08.880 patterns of life. So a lot of what they they 385 00:25:08.960 --> 00:25:13.200 said was assumed. Plus you've got the fact that in Gaza, 386 00:25:13.640 --> 00:25:19.519 the density of the population was magnified many times by 387 00:25:19.680 --> 00:25:25.440 evacuation orders and and many times civilians were evacuated or 388 00:25:25.440 --> 00:25:29.319 told to move, they weren't aided and doing so from 389 00:25:29.319 --> 00:25:32.279 one area into another, and that area was subsequently bombed. 390 00:25:32.440 --> 00:25:34.960 Also, the interesting thing about your article two that you mentioned, 391 00:25:35.000 --> 00:25:38.240 like like the what they do with like the roof knocking, 392 00:25:38.359 --> 00:25:41.279 or even like sending out messages to a phone network 393 00:25:41.319 --> 00:25:45.880 that is essentially degraded to the I'm purpose purposely degraded 394 00:25:45.920 --> 00:25:48.880 to a point where it doesn't work. But they let 395 00:25:48.880 --> 00:25:51.039 people know, hey, we're gonna bomb this shit out of 396 00:25:51.039 --> 00:25:53.720 this area, so get out of the way. They send 397 00:25:53.720 --> 00:25:56.200 it on text or wherever phone calls, and people don't 398 00:25:56.200 --> 00:25:59.559 get the messages because their cell phone network is fucked up. 399 00:25:59.640 --> 00:26:03.599 Are internet is Yeah in the battle space where you know, electricity, 400 00:26:03.759 --> 00:26:06.160 cell you in a networks intended access have all been 401 00:26:06.200 --> 00:26:11.160