WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.360 --> 00:00:05.559 While it's holding ten or more bitcoin, dropping about eleven 2 00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:08.359 three hundred and thirty one bitcoin during that time. That's 3 00:00:08.439 --> 00:00:11.480 quite a bit and it did affect the markets instantly 4 00:00:11.480 --> 00:00:14.919 as soon as that dump started, with prices going down 5 00:00:16.000 --> 00:00:18.440 a little over eleven percent ur in that time. But 6 00:00:19.000 --> 00:00:23.800 since March third, now about ten days, we've seen accumulation 7 00:00:24.800 --> 00:00:26.920 go back up. 8 00:00:31.719 --> 00:00:35.079 Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host, 9 00:00:35.079 --> 00:00:38.560 Tony Edward and my guest is Brian from Saniment And 10 00:00:38.600 --> 00:00:40.119 as you all know, we are going to do a 11 00:00:40.119 --> 00:00:42.679 deep dive into the metrics round Bitcoin and the top 12 00:00:42.719 --> 00:00:44.719 all coins to get a lay of the land and 13 00:00:44.759 --> 00:00:47.880 what's happening in this market after a massive Q four 14 00:00:47.960 --> 00:00:50.759 run up and now we are in a corrective phase 15 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:53.240 and some are saying it's the bear market, but Brian, 16 00:00:53.280 --> 00:00:55.600 we're going to use the data to figure out what's happening. 17 00:00:56.479 --> 00:00:59.600 Yeah, good to be here, Tony. It's obviously been a 18 00:00:59.679 --> 00:01:02.719 rough couple of months, but at least in the last 19 00:01:03.039 --> 00:01:05.840 two to three days, things are looking a lot more optimistic, 20 00:01:05.959 --> 00:01:07.640 especially on a big Friday here. 21 00:01:08.560 --> 00:01:12.799 Yeah, Brian, isn't it fascinating the dynamic of market sentiment 22 00:01:13.000 --> 00:01:15.760 and how it flips. You know, in Q four it 23 00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:17.480 seems like the rally is not going to end, is 24 00:01:17.519 --> 00:01:20.599 going to keep going higher. There are crazy price predictions. 25 00:01:20.599 --> 00:01:24.359 Everybody's euphoric. But usually when you see that herd and 26 00:01:24.519 --> 00:01:26.120 I know we're going to look at the data, when 27 00:01:26.159 --> 00:01:28.359 you see the herd gets so euphoric, it's time to 28 00:01:28.400 --> 00:01:32.680 be bearish. And now that things are in the dumbs 29 00:01:32.719 --> 00:01:36.959 and the herd is feeling depressed, they're like, it's over, 30 00:01:37.319 --> 00:01:39.920 it's over, Brian, Now is the time to get greedy again. 31 00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:44.799 Exactly. Yeah, it's amazing how how quickly the crowd can 32 00:01:44.840 --> 00:01:49.400 flip on a dime, and they've been pretty down for 33 00:01:49.560 --> 00:01:51.920 the last couple of weeks, so this was kind of 34 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:54.640 a almost a given that we'd see some sort of 35 00:01:54.640 --> 00:01:57.599 relief rally to punish all the people selling and selling 36 00:01:57.680 --> 00:02:01.439 and selling, because the retail typically gets it wrong and 37 00:02:01.480 --> 00:02:04.120 the whales and sharks typically typically get it right because 38 00:02:04.120 --> 00:02:09.199 they're the ones pushing prices up and down. So now, 39 00:02:09.280 --> 00:02:13.680 on the short term, the only concern is whether the 40 00:02:13.759 --> 00:02:17.919 crowd is starting to now you know, spam lambos and 41 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:22.080 rocket emojis and we're back all over the place. So 42 00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:25.360 we're hoping that they're they're not really believing in this 43 00:02:25.439 --> 00:02:28.120 rally because that can aid in the rally continuing. 44 00:02:28.960 --> 00:02:31.280 Yeah, and I think also the backdrop of the macro 45 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:35.360 factors has a lot of people nervous, like tariffores and 46 00:02:35.840 --> 00:02:41.159 recession and look the stock markets selling off. So but 47 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:43.840 you know that all those things, while they can have 48 00:02:43.879 --> 00:02:47.560 an effect on markets, it's not a permanent effect where oh, 49 00:02:47.560 --> 00:02:49.520 the market's just going to keep going down to zero. No, 50 00:02:49.639 --> 00:02:51.800 that we've seen, whether it be COVID crash or two 51 00:02:51.840 --> 00:02:54.400 thousand and eight, markets rebround. As long as people are 52 00:02:54.439 --> 00:02:56.199 alive and they have to buy and they have to live, 53 00:02:56.759 --> 00:03:00.479 markets will rebound. And whether it's on the micro the macro, 54 00:03:00.560 --> 00:03:02.280 you know, depending on how big the correction is. 55 00:03:02.960 --> 00:03:05.759 It's a good way of looking at it. It's always 56 00:03:05.879 --> 00:03:08.159 kind of cyclical. What goes down must come up, what 57 00:03:08.240 --> 00:03:10.759 goes up must come down. And we've seen time and 58 00:03:10.800 --> 00:03:15.080 time again in crypto where people think that the run 59 00:03:15.199 --> 00:03:18.840 is over and crypto is finally gonna die off, and 60 00:03:18.879 --> 00:03:21.000 not only does it not die off, it makes a 61 00:03:21.000 --> 00:03:24.080 new all time high within like the next six to 62 00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:27.560 twelve months after that narrative was formed. So it's it's 63 00:03:27.560 --> 00:03:29.719 amazing what continues to happen. 64 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:32.120 And I know some people are going to be watching 65 00:03:32.159 --> 00:03:34.080 and listening and saying, well, how the hell do I 66 00:03:34.159 --> 00:03:37.120 navigate these things? Well, Brian, let's show them. Let's show 67 00:03:37.159 --> 00:03:39.800 them the data. Let's start with bitcoin and what's going 68 00:03:39.840 --> 00:03:42.800 on with bitcoin sentiment, and what Wales are doing and 69 00:03:42.879 --> 00:03:44.039 much more for sure. 70 00:03:44.280 --> 00:03:47.080 So I'm I'm looking at some of the primary bitcoin 71 00:03:47.159 --> 00:03:49.199 metrics that we like to check out when we do 72 00:03:49.240 --> 00:03:53.759 our analysis. Transaction volume is nothing special right now. This 73 00:03:53.800 --> 00:03:57.360 is showing the overall USD being traded on chain on 74 00:03:57.400 --> 00:04:00.719 a daily basis, So we're kind of hovering inwhere between 75 00:04:01.560 --> 00:04:06.199 ten to about twenty to twenty five billion dollars per day. 76 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:08.800 When it was at its highest point in early December, 77 00:04:08.840 --> 00:04:12.680 we were seeing like over sixty billion dollars in a 78 00:04:12.680 --> 00:04:16.920 few given days here, and that was kind of actually 79 00:04:16.959 --> 00:04:21.399 indicating that we were getting toppy. So for those who 80 00:04:21.480 --> 00:04:24.720 think the transaction volume needs to go up for Bitcoin 81 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:27.720 to go up, that's not necessarily true. In fact, a 82 00:04:27.839 --> 00:04:32.399 decline kind of is reflective of fear because the retail 83 00:04:32.480 --> 00:04:35.920 truck crowd in particular tends to sit on their hands 84 00:04:35.920 --> 00:04:38.879 when prices have this kind of momentum for a long 85 00:04:38.920 --> 00:04:42.639 period of time, so nothing too scary. Their active addresses 86 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:45.600 has been up and down, circulation is up and down. 87 00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:48.720 But this is the big one I wanted to check 88 00:04:48.759 --> 00:04:54.560 out here MVRV showing that the average returns, So those 89 00:04:54.600 --> 00:04:59.000 traders you're competing with, because they are competitors, their average 90 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:01.920 returns for anyone active in the past thirty days is 91 00:05:01.920 --> 00:05:05.360 sitting at around negative three percent, while those active in 92 00:05:05.399 --> 00:05:08.959 the past year, just anyone who's made at least one transfer, 93 00:05:09.680 --> 00:05:12.920 their average is at about plus one percent. So this 94 00:05:13.000 --> 00:05:15.800 is actually about as neutral as you'll ever really see 95 00:05:15.839 --> 00:05:19.839 things on both the short and long term basis. The 96 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:24.120 ideal points to buy are something like this on February 97 00:05:24.160 --> 00:05:28.720 twenty eighth, when we saw short term traders down over 98 00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:33.480 fifteen percent, long term traders down almost five percent. You 99 00:05:33.560 --> 00:05:35.360 want to buy in when there's blood in the streets, 100 00:05:35.439 --> 00:05:39.600 lots of pain going on, and right now there's because 101 00:05:39.639 --> 00:05:42.040 of the mild bounce we've seen in the last three 102 00:05:42.120 --> 00:05:46.079 days or so, everything's kind of neutraled out here and 103 00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:49.279 where we're right at the point where things can essentially 104 00:05:49.360 --> 00:05:51.959 go either way according to just the raw math of 105 00:05:52.040 --> 00:05:55.240 how traders are doing in a zero sum game. 106 00:05:56.439 --> 00:05:59.800 Yeah, and I saw on the fear and greed index 107 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:04.040 the sentiment was as low as we saw in March 108 00:06:04.079 --> 00:06:08.079 twenty twenty and even December twenty twenty two. People are 109 00:06:08.120 --> 00:06:10.680 really scared, Brian, and I think part of it is 110 00:06:10.720 --> 00:06:14.839 the macro factors, the backdrop. But you know, I personally 111 00:06:14.839 --> 00:06:18.360 bought the dip on those crashes, not financial advice, of course, 112 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:20.720 And I personally think this is a local top but 113 00:06:20.759 --> 00:06:22.839 I could be wrong because we don't have a crystal ball. 114 00:06:23.279 --> 00:06:26.560 But when I saw the sentiment at those levels, I 115 00:06:26.600 --> 00:06:28.439 was like, I seen this story before. 116 00:06:28.639 --> 00:06:32.920 I'm buying. Yeah, there were three big points. I'm looking 117 00:06:32.959 --> 00:06:36.639 at the past three months of sentiment on a given day. 118 00:06:36.720 --> 00:06:43.360 So here in right before Christmas in late December, we 119 00:06:43.439 --> 00:06:48.519 saw two really big negative points as prices were declining, 120 00:06:48.920 --> 00:06:52.199 and it eventually ended up being a great bounce opportunity. 121 00:06:52.879 --> 00:06:56.720 And then more recently, this was when right before Trump 122 00:06:56.879 --> 00:07:01.199 announced his strategic reserves February twenty seven, twenty eighth, we 123 00:07:01.319 --> 00:07:06.199 really bottomed out, got about down to seventy eight k everyone. 124 00:07:06.560 --> 00:07:08.560 I mean, we had five straight days where there were 125 00:07:08.600 --> 00:07:11.560 more negative comments than positive, it looks like, and then 126 00:07:11.600 --> 00:07:15.040 we see an immediate bounce from that until people start 127 00:07:15.079 --> 00:07:18.199 to get over confident, and then it top forms and 128 00:07:18.240 --> 00:07:21.639 then we go way down once again to that same 129 00:07:21.759 --> 00:07:25.639 level seventy eight K, and we see March ninth and 130 00:07:25.720 --> 00:07:30.279 March tenth, huge negative sentiment forming once again, people saying, 131 00:07:30.319 --> 00:07:32.920 all right, this crash is for real. Get ready, everybody 132 00:07:32.959 --> 00:07:36.279 you know, see you at sixty K, see you at 133 00:07:36.279 --> 00:07:39.079 forty K. All these predictions coming out, and then they 134 00:07:39.120 --> 00:07:43.319 get punished once again with a nice mild bounce we've seen. 135 00:07:44.480 --> 00:07:47.959 But the warning sign here, because we have to be realistic, 136 00:07:48.720 --> 00:07:52.439 is the fact that we've now seen a couple days 137 00:07:52.439 --> 00:07:57.279 in a row with rising positive sentiments starting to form again. 138 00:07:57.639 --> 00:08:01.279 Not quite euphoric, nothing like this we saw, you know, 139 00:08:01.439 --> 00:08:04.920 the week after Trump was inaugurated and people were already 140 00:08:04.920 --> 00:08:08.199 pre celebrating another amazing crypto year we were about to have. 141 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:12.720 We're kind of in this mode where it's it's leaning 142 00:08:12.759 --> 00:08:16.399 bullish according to the crowd. People are are starting to 143 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:22.439 attribute this as the dip to buy. In hindsight, just 144 00:08:22.439 --> 00:08:25.600 because we've we've jumped about six k in market value 145 00:08:25.680 --> 00:08:30.120 for bitcoin, I wouldn't be surprised if this causes a 146 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:34.399 little bit of stagnancy from here, and you know, Friday's 147 00:08:34.440 --> 00:08:36.279 bounce that we're seeing today is a little bit of 148 00:08:36.480 --> 00:08:39.639 just a regression to the mean where we've had so 149 00:08:39.720 --> 00:08:42.000 much blood that it was bound to come up a little. 150 00:08:42.480 --> 00:08:46.320 So the people buying now and saying now it's time 151 00:08:46.360 --> 00:08:49.399 to buy, get your get all that dry powder out 152 00:08:49.440 --> 00:08:53.120 from hibernation, it's time to uh get into bitcoin and 153 00:08:53.159 --> 00:08:56.000 al coins, et cetera, be a little careful of that. 154 00:08:56.240 --> 00:08:59.039 I wouldn't necessarily say we're going to see a reversal 155 00:08:59.799 --> 00:09:04.000 and now just fall back down again, but ranging could 156 00:09:04.120 --> 00:09:07.960 could be a likely path based on just sentiment and 157 00:09:08.039 --> 00:09:10.960 the fact that like MVRV that we just discussed is 158 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:13.000 like as neutral as it gets right now. 159 00:09:14.440 --> 00:09:18.200 Yeah, that's great insight. So there may be some patients 160 00:09:18.279 --> 00:09:23.080 needed before bitcoin really starts finding some strength. And you 161 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:26.480 could certainly have what they call bull traps, right like 162 00:09:26.519 --> 00:09:29.440 this rally we're seeing, this small uptick could be a 163 00:09:29.440 --> 00:09:31.639 bull trap, or it could be the start of the reversal. 164 00:09:31.679 --> 00:09:34.679 We don't know it, so you have to be cautious. 165 00:09:34.159 --> 00:09:38.679 Right and also to mention, you know, Fridays are the 166 00:09:38.720 --> 00:09:42.159 most positive return day of the week, so take that 167 00:09:42.200 --> 00:09:43.879 with a grain of salt too, when you see a 168 00:09:43.879 --> 00:09:46.279 big outbreak at the end of the week and everyone 169 00:09:46.320 --> 00:09:49.440 wants to just have a good bookend to what was 170 00:09:49.480 --> 00:09:54.320 otherwise a pretty miserable week. Sometimes sometimes this happens, but 171 00:09:54.360 --> 00:09:57.960 it doesn't mean really anything for the upcoming weeks or months. So, 172 00:09:59.120 --> 00:10:02.519 just as Tony said, practice patients right now and understand 173 00:10:03.159 --> 00:10:06.080 this isn't the signal you were waiting for to suddenly 174 00:10:06.120 --> 00:10:09.440 buy with confidence. But it also isn't a signal that 175 00:10:10.080 --> 00:10:13.720 you know, markets are are still going down to sixty 176 00:10:13.799 --> 00:10:16.200 k forty k, like some of the biggest bears out 177 00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:17.399 there are spouting. 178 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:21.200 Yeah, for sure, So what are the whales doing? Because Brian, 179 00:10:21.240 --> 00:10:22.960 I was looking at the Santame chart and I saw 180 00:10:22.960 --> 00:10:25.000 a bit of a dip, but then it started recovering, 181 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:27.000 and I was like, when I saw that dip, like 182 00:10:27.000 --> 00:10:28.600 about a week and a half, I was like, oh, no, 183 00:10:29.559 --> 00:10:31.919 it is really the top. You what are you seeing 184 00:10:31.919 --> 00:10:32.879 from this? 185 00:10:32.879 --> 00:10:36.120 This for sure was a bad stage right here from 186 00:10:36.159 --> 00:10:42.159 here to here. So February twentieth to March third, we 187 00:10:42.240 --> 00:10:48.200 actually saw while it's holding ten or more bitcoin, dropping 188 00:10:48.399 --> 00:10:51.600 about eleven three hundred and thirty one bitcoin during that time. 189 00:10:51.840 --> 00:10:54.519 That's quite a bit, and it did affect the markets 190 00:10:54.600 --> 00:10:58.240 instantly as soon as that dump started, with prices going 191 00:10:58.279 --> 00:11:02.080 down a little over eleven percent during that time. But 192 00:11:02.639 --> 00:11:07.440 since March third, now about ten days, we've seen accumulation 193 00:11:08.440 --> 00:11:12.559 go back up. They bought back a little more than 194 00:11:12.639 --> 00:11:15.799 half of those six and thirty one bitcoin back into 195 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:19.720 their wallets. So a tale as old as time. Whales dump, 196 00:11:19.759 --> 00:11:22.279 send prices down and then start buying back in when 197 00:11:23.039 --> 00:11:26.639 you know they can get their bitcoin for eleven percent cheaper. 198 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:29.919 And that's essentially what we're seeing right now. Man. 199 00:11:30.600 --> 00:11:32.159 I was, like I said, I was breathing a sigh 200 00:11:32.159 --> 00:11:36.879 of relief when I saw the recovery because you know, 201 00:11:36.919 --> 00:11:39.120 for my personal bias, I don't want the Marball market 202 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:42.360 to be over. I'm looking for higher prices. So I 203 00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:44.480 was like, oh, man, if these whales are selling, that 204 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:47.679 means something is off here, then this may be the end. 205 00:11:47.759 --> 00:11:50.519 But I want to see more data, a larger sample size. 206 00:11:50.559 --> 00:11:53.759 I want to see an actual down trend. Thankfully, it 207 00:11:53.799 --> 00:11:57.200 was just a dip here exactly. Yeah, we were we 208 00:11:57.200 --> 00:11:59.679 were definitely getting worried when we saw them really starting 209 00:11:59.720 --> 00:12:02.720 to take profit. But as long as they're moving back up, 210 00:12:03.000 --> 00:12:05.240 you know, we can see what has happened just over 211 00:12:05.279 --> 00:12:08.600 the past six months. Prices do tend to catch up 212 00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:12.799 if whales continue to hoard the coins that the retailers 213 00:12:12.799 --> 00:12:15.039 are dumping, So good. 214 00:12:14.840 --> 00:12:18.320 Sign for sure on the supply. You go ahead, Tony. 215 00:12:18.639 --> 00:12:20.279 Oh, no, I was going to say, because I noticed 216 00:12:20.279 --> 00:12:22.759 stable coin supply is on there, if you could talk 217 00:12:22.799 --> 00:12:23.159 about that. 218 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:27.240 Yeah, Well, from a whale perspective, we like to look 219 00:12:27.279 --> 00:12:30.759 at specifically whilets that hold anywhere between one hundred thousand 220 00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:33.639 bucks to ten million bucks in stable coins. This is 221 00:12:33.720 --> 00:12:36.799 kind of like that smart money sweet spot, and tether 222 00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:41.320 has been moving up. They bottomed out here around February 223 00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:44.559 fifteenth when they had only about twenty one percent of 224 00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:47.360 the overall supply of tether. Now they're up about twenty 225 00:12:47.399 --> 00:12:50.600 one point six so that's that's a pretty decent amount 226 00:12:50.600 --> 00:12:54.519 of tether they've held onto or bought back into. But 227 00:12:54.600 --> 00:12:57.600 you can still see compared to the amount of dry 228 00:12:57.639 --> 00:12:59.799 powder that they had at the beginning of the rally 229 00:13:00.039 --> 00:13:03.480 started back in mid October, they do have a lot less, 230 00:13:03.960 --> 00:13:05.840 So we'd like to see that pick up a little bit. 231 00:13:05.960 --> 00:13:09.759 Us d Coin definitely is they hold twenty seven and 232 00:13:09.799 --> 00:13:12.480 a half percent after being as low as twenty six 233 00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:15.000 and a half percent, So both are moving in the 234 00:13:15.080 --> 00:13:18.639 right direction while they're adding more bitcoins, so that means 235 00:13:18.639 --> 00:13:21.600 the money's coming from outside sources like Fiat. They're moving 236 00:13:21.879 --> 00:13:25.919 you know, bank account money back into crypto at some extent. 237 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:31.440 Interesting and then supply and exchanges as far as bitcoin, 238 00:13:32.639 --> 00:13:33.480 how's that looking. 239 00:13:34.399 --> 00:13:39.480 Yeah, so on the tether and USD coin end, you 240 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:45.000 can clearly see that they have been declining as Bitcoin's 241 00:13:45.120 --> 00:13:49.480 supplant exchange is rising. This is actually not the combo 242 00:13:49.559 --> 00:13:53.879 we want. We'd like to see Bitcoin continuing to stay 243 00:13:54.000 --> 00:13:56.679 off of exchanges, either being flat like we saw in 244 00:13:56.759 --> 00:14:01.080 late December early February, or potentially just continuing to plummet 245 00:14:01.480 --> 00:14:04.440 because they're being moved into cold storage for safe keeping 246 00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:08.519 from those whales. But yeah, they did start to really 247 00:14:08.600 --> 00:14:12.080 move a lot of coins back onto exchanges beginning that 248 00:14:12.200 --> 00:14:17.879 first week of February, and roughly six seven weeks later, 249 00:14:19.679 --> 00:14:25.159 it looks like they've overall, between all the different tiers whales, fish, dolphins, 250 00:14:25.159 --> 00:14:28.440 what have you, there's thirty five, four hundred and eleven 251 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:31.799 more Bitcoin on exchanges than there were back then. So 252 00:14:32.039 --> 00:14:34.399 it's not a ton when you look at it from 253 00:14:34.440 --> 00:14:37.200 the perspective of where we were six months ago. But 254 00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:40.759 we'd like to see this calm down soon because more 255 00:14:40.799 --> 00:14:44.279 bitcoin moving to exchanges. It kind of signals that a 256 00:14:44.279 --> 00:14:46.320 lot of people are waiting for their price to hit 257 00:14:46.799 --> 00:14:51.039 so they can sell and get out. Yeah, great point. 258 00:14:51.639 --> 00:14:53.559 I've been noticing. I was like, as I was watching 259 00:14:53.600 --> 00:14:55.840 the data this week, and I'm like, oh, I see 260 00:14:55.879 --> 00:14:59.559 the uptick, I see the decline with the whale was 261 00:14:59.639 --> 00:15:02.320 holding bitcoin ten or more. And I'm like, it seems 262 00:15:02.360 --> 00:15:05.519 like this is the start of something. Are they anticipating 263 00:15:06.840 --> 00:15:10.639 another major local top or a market blow up? Top 264 00:15:10.919 --> 00:15:14.080 come later or I should say, come end of Q two, 265 00:15:14.200 --> 00:15:15.799 Maybe it's around May or June. 266 00:15:16.639 --> 00:15:18.480 Yeah, I mean, we haven't talked about it yet. But 267 00:15:18.639 --> 00:15:24.360 the the thing that is the elephant in the room 268 00:15:24.480 --> 00:15:28.840 is all of the macroeconomic factors that are affecting the 269 00:15:28.919 --> 00:15:31.240 S and P five hundred right now, and how crypto 270 00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:34.200 is still very correlated with the S and P. So 271 00:15:35.279 --> 00:15:40.080 not having control, even if you're a big wealthy whale, 272 00:15:40.120 --> 00:15:43.639 not having control over what Trump does next, what Musk 273 00:15:43.720 --> 00:15:48.919 or Putin or Zelensky does, whatever your opinions are. The 274 00:15:49.039 --> 00:15:54.000 uncertainty of where the world stands. The uncertainty of whether 275 00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:57.320 you know Canada in the US, or Australia in the US, 276 00:15:57.879 --> 00:16:00.480 or China in the US can get a lot right 277 00:16:00.480 --> 00:16:03.840 now because of these tearff wars that are happening. That 278 00:16:03.919 --> 00:16:09.639 causes chaos and tends to get bigger capital investors a 279 00:16:09.679 --> 00:16:13.519 little more conservative and act safer when they aren't as 280 00:16:13.519 --> 00:16:16.080 confident about where the world is going to go next. 281 00:16:16.639 --> 00:16:19.320 So I think that that explains some of the behavior 282 00:16:19.360 --> 00:16:22.200 that we're seeing with the supplant exchanges moving up and 283 00:16:22.240 --> 00:16:25.879 even some of their mild profit taking that they were 284 00:16:26.000 --> 00:16:28.440 especially doing in the second half of February. 285 00:16:30.279 --> 00:16:34.080 Yeah, that definitely makes sense. It's certainly well. I should say, 286 00:16:34.120 --> 00:16:37.799 there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and I can 287 00:16:37.879 --> 00:16:39.759 see why. You know, people who are not looking at 288 00:16:39.840 --> 00:16:42.200 data are caught in a wilmin of that right and 289 00:16:42.240 --> 00:16:45.840 the emotional rollercoaster. But I love going to the data 290 00:16:45.879 --> 00:16:50.039 on sentiment and being able to put my emotions to 291 00:16:50.120 --> 00:16:52.200 the side and say, Okay, what's happening this This is 292 00:16:52.279 --> 00:16:54.120 just such insightful information. 293 00:16:54.799 --> 00:16:57.559 Thanks man. Yeah, I'll affward that memo to the devs 294 00:16:57.600 --> 00:17:00.960 who are constantly working on suuring that we've got some 295 00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:04.720 relevant data that's easy to digest. And all this data, 296 00:17:05.200 --> 00:17:08.599 if you remember, is on the blockchain. It's not like 297 00:17:08.680 --> 00:17:11.720 we have proprietary information that the rest of the world doesn't. 298 00:17:11.759 --> 00:17:14.400 What we do is curate it and turn it into 299 00:17:14.440 --> 00:17:20.079 something meaningful and easy to evaluate through all these summarized 300 00:17:20.079 --> 00:17:23.799 infographics and stuff. And then there's the social side, which 301 00:17:23.839 --> 00:17:27.119 I'm showing now, so we can see things like which 302 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:32.279 coins are trending the most, which trending words are popping 303 00:17:32.359 --> 00:17:35.000 up across social media the most, And these are the 304 00:17:35.079 --> 00:17:39.319 kinds of things that really do impact markets pretty significantly. 305 00:17:39.319 --> 00:17:43.079 We can see things like gold trending right now because 306 00:17:43.119 --> 00:17:46.559 when things get bearish for the midterm, like they have been, 307 00:17:47.720 --> 00:17:51.359 or at least the sentiments are turning bearish, that's when 308 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:55.839 you see people talking more about getting into safe havens, 309 00:17:55.920 --> 00:18:02.880 things that historically never lose their value even when macroeconomic 310 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:06.880 conditions get pretty dicey. So gold and silver have been 311 00:18:06.920 --> 00:18:09.920 talked about a lot more with people talking about the 312 00:18:09.960 --> 00:18:18.759 price levels. DOGE is actually referring mostly to the Musk's initiative. 313 00:18:18.799 --> 00:18:21.799 I can't remember the abbreviation right now, but it's actually 314 00:18:22.039 --> 00:18:24.759 funny that dog is trending, even though it's mostly due 315 00:18:24.759 --> 00:18:30.400 to the doge that Musk is running. M interesting. 316 00:18:31.079 --> 00:18:33.319 So let's go into some of the top all coins 317 00:18:33.359 --> 00:18:36.240 like Etherorem, and we'll talk about Salon and XRP as well. 318 00:18:37.039 --> 00:18:43.720 Sure, so we'll start with Ethereum. I actually just yeah, 319 00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:45.799 it really has, and I just put an insight out 320 00:18:45.799 --> 00:18:52.759 about it yesterday. I'll show you will you steer into 321 00:18:52.759 --> 00:18:55.920 the ether fear. Please feel free to hire me if 322 00:18:55.920 --> 00:18:58.359 you're interested in these creative rhymes. Guys, it took me 323 00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:04.920 a long time, but yeah, the crowd sentiment has absolutely plummeted. 324 00:19:05.240 --> 00:19:08.119 I did a little infographic. It's maybe a little more 325 00:19:08.119 --> 00:19:09.960 busy than I wanted it to look, but you get 326 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:13.279 the idea. This line means there's an equal amount of 327 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:16.359 positive versus negative comments. This is one and a half 328 00:19:16.440 --> 00:19:19.240 to one, This is two to one positive to negative, 329 00:19:19.240 --> 00:19:21.599 and this is three to one. So you definitely don't 330 00:19:21.599 --> 00:19:24.160 want to see sentiment way up here. This is where 331 00:19:24.279 --> 00:19:27.400 you tend to see tops and prices go down. Here, 332 00:19:27.480 --> 00:19:31.039 it's still a little bit too bullish most of the time. Here, 333 00:19:31.079 --> 00:19:34.400 it's actually pretty neutral. So like a resting state for 334 00:19:34.599 --> 00:19:37.720 social media is usually like one and a half to 335 00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:40.599 one for most of the top comments or top social 336 00:19:40.599 --> 00:19:45.799 media platforms toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, et cetera. So when 337 00:19:45.839 --> 00:19:48.359 you see it start to go below there, that's when 338 00:19:48.359 --> 00:19:50.720 you know that the crowd is genuinely starting to get 339 00:19:50.759 --> 00:19:55.559 super scared and expressing a lot of fud. And as 340 00:19:55.599 --> 00:19:58.640 you would imagine with the year that Ethereum has seen, 341 00:20:00.119 --> 00:20:03.119 there's a massive amount of bearishness that's really starting to 342 00:20:03.160 --> 00:20:07.279 form here one, two, three, four, five straight days where 343 00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:11.319 we're below this line, meaning there's actually more negative comments 344 00:20:11.359 --> 00:20:15.720 overall across social media than positive right now. And that's 345 00:20:15.759 --> 00:20:19.400 actually a good thing. So it's easy to fall into 346 00:20:19.480 --> 00:20:24.359 the trap of thinking, well, Ethereum's done, it's underperformed compared 347 00:20:24.359 --> 00:20:29.440 to XRP and cardono and doge and Bitcoin. That's actually 348 00:20:29.480 --> 00:20:32.519 a good sign, especially when it's combined with the fact 349 00:20:32.519 --> 00:20:36.680 that the crowd has written it off, because this means 350 00:20:36.680 --> 00:20:40.839 that whales and sharks can easily hoard more coins, which 351 00:20:41.039 --> 00:20:45.519 they are, to an extent, looks better than Bitcoin, and 352 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:48.319 then they can pump up prices once Bitcoin starts to 353 00:20:48.359 --> 00:20:50.480 recover and allow the rest of the markets to do 354 00:20:50.559 --> 00:20:55.200 its thing. So don't I kind of like this a 355 00:20:55.200 --> 00:20:59.279 lot right now. It doesn't necessarily automatically mean Ethereum is 356 00:20:59.319 --> 00:21:01.920 on the brink of taking off, but from a mid 357 00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:05.640 or long term perspective, this is a great sign. The 358 00:21:05.680 --> 00:21:10.519 fact that, you know, just seeing these yellow bars declining 359 00:21:10.559 --> 00:21:13.319 over time the way they have, it's it's pretty clear 360 00:21:13.359 --> 00:21:17.200 that the crowd is just done. They're done with Ethereum. 361 00:21:17.680 --> 00:21:22.000 They believe it's it's a disappointment. And you know, XRP 362 00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:25.680 and maybe even Solana will pass it soon in market cap, 363 00:21:25.720 --> 00:21:29.079 which would be a huge milestone. Ethereum has been in 364 00:21:29.119 --> 00:21:33.480 the number two spot for almost a decade now, so 365 00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:34.119 it's crazy. 366 00:21:35.039 --> 00:21:37.720 Yeah, And you know I mentioned earlier I bought the dip. 367 00:21:37.799 --> 00:21:43.279 I specifically bought some eth Sui and XRP, just buying 368 00:21:43.319 --> 00:21:46.759 those lows, right, And I obviously I'm diversified, but I 369 00:21:46.839 --> 00:21:49.200 saw eth as a big opportunity because it's just so 370 00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:52.400 down and just the sentiment is so bad, and I'm like, 371 00:21:52.759 --> 00:21:56.640 like I said, I've seen this story before, and I 372 00:21:56.759 --> 00:21:59.680 put the majority of my diet, my funds, my dry 373 00:21:59.720 --> 00:22:02.000 powder in eathen in buying that. 374 00:22:02.079 --> 00:22:05.640 Dip totally, I don't blame you at all, and I 375 00:22:05.920 --> 00:22:08.599 hope it ends up being a good decision for you. 376 00:22:08.680 --> 00:22:11.880 But based on the data, I mean, it seems pretty 377 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:16.000 logical that there will be some regression to the mean eventually. 378 00:22:16.559 --> 00:22:19.799 Not just because it's underperformed price wise, and you know, 379 00:22:19.920 --> 00:22:23.000 prices tend to rubber band against each other, but if 380 00:22:23.039 --> 00:22:27.240 it's if it's underperformed and the crowd is is just 381 00:22:27.319 --> 00:22:30.880 giving up on it, that's a pretty good combination for sure. 382 00:22:31.319 --> 00:22:34.480 So let's look at Solana and how that's been doing. 383 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:39.319 I know, the mean coins that are you know, specifically 384 00:22:39.720 --> 00:22:42.519 on Solana that has been really hyped up with pump 385 00:22:42.599 --> 00:22:45.200 not fun. A lot of that market has died down. 386 00:22:45.279 --> 00:22:47.480 So how has that affect at Solana. 387 00:22:48.079 --> 00:22:51.119 Yeah, so from a discussion standpoint, they're pretty much at 388 00:22:51.119 --> 00:22:56.960 their lowest point since uh pre Trump election. They they 389 00:22:57.119 --> 00:23:02.200 really have seen a deep fall off from a price perspective. 390 00:23:02.279 --> 00:23:05.880 We went down, man, more than I thought. It's down 391 00:23:06.400 --> 00:23:11.880 somewhere between forty seven to fifty percent since it's high 392 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:17.519 back on right before Trump's inauguration. So the discussion rate 393 00:23:17.640 --> 00:23:20.640 is in the toilet. There's just very little discussion compared 394 00:23:20.640 --> 00:23:23.240 to other alt coins right now. And then from a 395 00:23:23.319 --> 00:23:27.880 sentiment just overall, like positive versus negative sentiment perspective, I'd 396 00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:33.759 be surprised if it's not bearish. Right now, it's definitely bearish. 397 00:23:33.839 --> 00:23:36.559 So look at this just compared to where things were 398 00:23:37.279 --> 00:23:43.160 that like late December early to mid January. Interestingly, here 399 00:23:43.519 --> 00:23:48.880 I found this odd that the huge surge that happened 400 00:23:48.920 --> 00:23:52.759 on the eighteenth and nineteenth resulted in very bearished discussion. 401 00:23:53.240 --> 00:23:55.960