Speaker 1: While it's holding ten or more bitcoin, dropping about eleven
Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty one bitcoin during that time. That's
Speaker 1: quite a bit and it did affect the markets instantly
Speaker 1: as soon as that dump started, with prices going down
Speaker 1: a little over eleven percent ur in that time. But
Speaker 1: since March third, now about ten days, we've seen accumulation
Speaker 1: go back up.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. I'm your host,
Speaker 2: Tony Edward and my guest is Brian from Saniment And
Speaker 2: as you all know, we are going to do a
Speaker 2: deep dive into the metrics round Bitcoin and the top
Speaker 2: all coins to get a lay of the land and
Speaker 2: what's happening in this market after a massive Q four
Speaker 2: run up and now we are in a corrective phase
Speaker 2: and some are saying it's the bear market, but Brian,
Speaker 2: we're going to use the data to figure out what's happening.
Speaker 1: Yeah, good to be here, Tony. It's obviously been a
Speaker 1: rough couple of months, but at least in the last
Speaker 1: two to three days, things are looking a lot more optimistic,
Speaker 1: especially on a big Friday here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Brian, isn't it fascinating the dynamic of market sentiment
Speaker 2: and how it flips. You know, in Q four it
Speaker 2: seems like the rally is not going to end, is
Speaker 2: going to keep going higher. There are crazy price predictions.
Speaker 2: Everybody's euphoric. But usually when you see that herd and
Speaker 2: I know we're going to look at the data, when
Speaker 2: you see the herd gets so euphoric, it's time to
Speaker 2: be bearish. And now that things are in the dumbs
Speaker 2: and the herd is feeling depressed, they're like, it's over,
Speaker 2: it's over, Brian, Now is the time to get greedy again.
Speaker 1: Exactly. Yeah, it's amazing how how quickly the crowd can
Speaker 1: flip on a dime, and they've been pretty down for
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, so this was kind of
Speaker 1: a almost a given that we'd see some sort of
Speaker 1: relief rally to punish all the people selling and selling
Speaker 1: and selling, because the retail typically gets it wrong and
Speaker 1: the whales and sharks typically typically get it right because
Speaker 1: they're the ones pushing prices up and down. So now,
Speaker 1: on the short term, the only concern is whether the
Speaker 1: crowd is starting to now you know, spam lambos and
Speaker 1: rocket emojis and we're back all over the place. So
Speaker 1: we're hoping that they're they're not really believing in this
Speaker 1: rally because that can aid in the rally continuing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think also the backdrop of the macro
Speaker 2: factors has a lot of people nervous, like tariffores and
Speaker 2: recession and look the stock markets selling off. So but
Speaker 2: you know that all those things, while they can have
Speaker 2: an effect on markets, it's not a permanent effect where oh,
Speaker 2: the market's just going to keep going down to zero. No,
Speaker 2: that we've seen, whether it be COVID crash or two
Speaker 2: thousand and eight, markets rebround. As long as people are
Speaker 2: alive and they have to buy and they have to live,
Speaker 2: markets will rebound. And whether it's on the micro the macro,
Speaker 2: you know, depending on how big the correction is.
Speaker 1: It's a good way of looking at it. It's always
Speaker 1: kind of cyclical. What goes down must come up, what
Speaker 1: goes up must come down. And we've seen time and
Speaker 1: time again in crypto where people think that the run
Speaker 1: is over and crypto is finally gonna die off, and
Speaker 1: not only does it not die off, it makes a
Speaker 1: new all time high within like the next six to
Speaker 1: twelve months after that narrative was formed. So it's it's
Speaker 1: amazing what continues to happen.
Speaker 2: And I know some people are going to be watching
Speaker 2: and listening and saying, well, how the hell do I
Speaker 2: navigate these things? Well, Brian, let's show them. Let's show
Speaker 2: them the data. Let's start with bitcoin and what's going
Speaker 2: on with bitcoin sentiment, and what Wales are doing and
Speaker 2: much more for sure.
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm looking at some of the primary bitcoin
Speaker 1: metrics that we like to check out when we do
Speaker 1: our analysis. Transaction volume is nothing special right now. This
Speaker 1: is showing the overall USD being traded on chain on
Speaker 1: a daily basis, So we're kind of hovering inwhere between
Speaker 1: ten to about twenty to twenty five billion dollars per day.
Speaker 1: When it was at its highest point in early December,
Speaker 1: we were seeing like over sixty billion dollars in a
Speaker 1: few given days here, and that was kind of actually
Speaker 1: indicating that we were getting toppy. So for those who
Speaker 1: think the transaction volume needs to go up for Bitcoin
Speaker 1: to go up, that's not necessarily true. In fact, a
Speaker 1: decline kind of is reflective of fear because the retail
Speaker 1: truck crowd in particular tends to sit on their hands
Speaker 1: when prices have this kind of momentum for a long
Speaker 1: period of time, so nothing too scary. Their active addresses
Speaker 1: has been up and down, circulation is up and down.
Speaker 1: But this is the big one I wanted to check
Speaker 1: out here MVRV showing that the average returns, So those
Speaker 1: traders you're competing with, because they are competitors, their average
Speaker 1: returns for anyone active in the past thirty days is
Speaker 1: sitting at around negative three percent, while those active in
Speaker 1: the past year, just anyone who's made at least one transfer,
Speaker 1: their average is at about plus one percent. So this
Speaker 1: is actually about as neutral as you'll ever really see
Speaker 1: things on both the short and long term basis. The
Speaker 1: ideal points to buy are something like this on February
Speaker 1: twenty eighth, when we saw short term traders down over
Speaker 1: fifteen percent, long term traders down almost five percent. You
Speaker 1: want to buy in when there's blood in the streets,
Speaker 1: lots of pain going on, and right now there's because
Speaker 1: of the mild bounce we've seen in the last three
Speaker 1: days or so, everything's kind of neutraled out here and
Speaker 1: where we're right at the point where things can essentially
Speaker 1: go either way according to just the raw math of
Speaker 1: how traders are doing in a zero sum game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I saw on the fear and greed index
Speaker 2: the sentiment was as low as we saw in March
Speaker 2: twenty twenty and even December twenty twenty two. People are
Speaker 2: really scared, Brian, and I think part of it is
Speaker 2: the macro factors, the backdrop. But you know, I personally
Speaker 2: bought the dip on those crashes, not financial advice, of course,
Speaker 2: And I personally think this is a local top but
Speaker 2: I could be wrong because we don't have a crystal ball.
Speaker 2: But when I saw the sentiment at those levels, I
Speaker 2: was like, I seen this story before.
Speaker 1: I'm buying. Yeah, there were three big points. I'm looking
Speaker 1: at the past three months of sentiment on a given day.
Speaker 1: So here in right before Christmas in late December, we
Speaker 1: saw two really big negative points as prices were declining,
Speaker 1: and it eventually ended up being a great bounce opportunity.
Speaker 1: And then more recently, this was when right before Trump
Speaker 1: announced his strategic reserves February twenty seven, twenty eighth, we
Speaker 1: really bottomed out, got about down to seventy eight k everyone.
Speaker 1: I mean, we had five straight days where there were
Speaker 1: more negative comments than positive, it looks like, and then
Speaker 1: we see an immediate bounce from that until people start
Speaker 1: to get over confident, and then it top forms and
Speaker 1: then we go way down once again to that same
Speaker 1: level seventy eight K, and we see March ninth and
Speaker 1: March tenth, huge negative sentiment forming once again, people saying,
Speaker 1: all right, this crash is for real. Get ready, everybody
Speaker 1: you know, see you at sixty K, see you at
Speaker 1: forty K. All these predictions coming out, and then they
Speaker 1: get punished once again with a nice mild bounce we've seen.
Speaker 1: But the warning sign here, because we have to be realistic,
Speaker 1: is the fact that we've now seen a couple days
Speaker 1: in a row with rising positive sentiments starting to form again.
Speaker 1: Not quite euphoric, nothing like this we saw, you know,
Speaker 1: the week after Trump was inaugurated and people were already
Speaker 1: pre celebrating another amazing crypto year we were about to have.
Speaker 1: We're kind of in this mode where it's it's leaning
Speaker 1: bullish according to the crowd. People are are starting to
Speaker 1: attribute this as the dip to buy. In hindsight, just
Speaker 1: because we've we've jumped about six k in market value
Speaker 1: for bitcoin, I wouldn't be surprised if this causes a
Speaker 1: little bit of stagnancy from here, and you know, Friday's
Speaker 1: bounce that we're seeing today is a little bit of
Speaker 1: just a regression to the mean where we've had so
Speaker 1: much blood that it was bound to come up a little.
Speaker 1: So the people buying now and saying now it's time
Speaker 1: to buy, get your get all that dry powder out
Speaker 1: from hibernation, it's time to uh get into bitcoin and
Speaker 1: al coins, et cetera, be a little careful of that.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't necessarily say we're going to see a reversal
Speaker 1: and now just fall back down again, but ranging could
Speaker 1: could be a likely path based on just sentiment and
Speaker 1: the fact that like MVRV that we just discussed is
Speaker 1: like as neutral as it gets right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's great insight. So there may be some patients
Speaker 2: needed before bitcoin really starts finding some strength. And you
Speaker 2: could certainly have what they call bull traps, right like
Speaker 2: this rally we're seeing, this small uptick could be a
Speaker 2: bull trap, or it could be the start of the reversal.
Speaker 2: We don't know it, so you have to be cautious.
Speaker 1: Right and also to mention, you know, Fridays are the
Speaker 1: most positive return day of the week, so take that
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt too, when you see a
Speaker 1: big outbreak at the end of the week and everyone
Speaker 1: wants to just have a good bookend to what was
Speaker 1: otherwise a pretty miserable week. Sometimes sometimes this happens, but
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean really anything for the upcoming weeks or months. So,
Speaker 1: just as Tony said, practice patients right now and understand
Speaker 1: this isn't the signal you were waiting for to suddenly
Speaker 1: buy with confidence. But it also isn't a signal that
Speaker 1: you know, markets are are still going down to sixty
Speaker 1: k forty k, like some of the biggest bears out
Speaker 1: there are spouting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, So what are the whales doing? Because Brian,
Speaker 2: I was looking at the Santame chart and I saw
Speaker 2: a bit of a dip, but then it started recovering,
Speaker 2: and I was like, when I saw that dip, like
Speaker 2: about a week and a half, I was like, oh, no,
Speaker 2: it is really the top. You what are you seeing
Speaker 2: from this?
Speaker 1: This for sure was a bad stage right here from
Speaker 1: here to here. So February twentieth to March third, we
Speaker 1: actually saw while it's holding ten or more bitcoin, dropping
Speaker 1: about eleven three hundred and thirty one bitcoin during that time.
Speaker 1: That's quite a bit, and it did affect the markets
Speaker 1: instantly as soon as that dump started, with prices going
Speaker 1: down a little over eleven percent during that time. But
Speaker 1: since March third, now about ten days, we've seen accumulation
Speaker 1: go back up. They bought back a little more than
Speaker 1: half of those six and thirty one bitcoin back into
Speaker 1: their wallets. So a tale as old as time. Whales dump,
Speaker 1: send prices down and then start buying back in when
Speaker 1: you know they can get their bitcoin for eleven percent cheaper.
Speaker 1: And that's essentially what we're seeing right now. Man.
Speaker 2: I was, like I said, I was breathing a sigh
Speaker 2: of relief when I saw the recovery because you know,
Speaker 2: for my personal bias, I don't want the Marball market
Speaker 2: to be over. I'm looking for higher prices. So I
Speaker 2: was like, oh, man, if these whales are selling, that
Speaker 2: means something is off here, then this may be the end.
Speaker 2: But I want to see more data, a larger sample size.
Speaker 2: I want to see an actual down trend. Thankfully, it
Speaker 2: was just a dip here exactly. Yeah, we were we
Speaker 2: were definitely getting worried when we saw them really starting
Speaker 2: to take profit. But as long as they're moving back up,
Speaker 2: you know, we can see what has happened just over
Speaker 2: the past six months. Prices do tend to catch up
Speaker 2: if whales continue to hoard the coins that the retailers
Speaker 2: are dumping, So good.
Speaker 1: Sign for sure on the supply. You go ahead, Tony.
Speaker 2: Oh, no, I was going to say, because I noticed
Speaker 2: stable coin supply is on there, if you could talk
Speaker 2: about that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, from a whale perspective, we like to look
Speaker 1: at specifically whilets that hold anywhere between one hundred thousand
Speaker 1: bucks to ten million bucks in stable coins. This is
Speaker 1: kind of like that smart money sweet spot, and tether
Speaker 1: has been moving up. They bottomed out here around February
Speaker 1: fifteenth when they had only about twenty one percent of
Speaker 1: the overall supply of tether. Now they're up about twenty
Speaker 1: one point six so that's that's a pretty decent amount
Speaker 1: of tether they've held onto or bought back into. But
Speaker 1: you can still see compared to the amount of dry
Speaker 1: powder that they had at the beginning of the rally
Speaker 1: started back in mid October, they do have a lot less,
Speaker 1: So we'd like to see that pick up a little bit.
Speaker 1: Us d Coin definitely is they hold twenty seven and
Speaker 1: a half percent after being as low as twenty six
Speaker 1: and a half percent, So both are moving in the
Speaker 1: right direction while they're adding more bitcoins, so that means
Speaker 1: the money's coming from outside sources like Fiat. They're moving
Speaker 1: you know, bank account money back into crypto at some extent.
Speaker 2: Interesting and then supply and exchanges as far as bitcoin,
Speaker 2: how's that looking.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so on the tether and USD coin end, you
Speaker 1: can clearly see that they have been declining as Bitcoin's
Speaker 1: supplant exchange is rising. This is actually not the combo
Speaker 1: we want. We'd like to see Bitcoin continuing to stay
Speaker 1: off of exchanges, either being flat like we saw in
Speaker 1: late December early February, or potentially just continuing to plummet
Speaker 1: because they're being moved into cold storage for safe keeping
Speaker 1: from those whales. But yeah, they did start to really
Speaker 1: move a lot of coins back onto exchanges beginning that
Speaker 1: first week of February, and roughly six seven weeks later,
Speaker 1: it looks like they've overall, between all the different tiers whales, fish, dolphins,
Speaker 1: what have you, there's thirty five, four hundred and eleven
Speaker 1: more Bitcoin on exchanges than there were back then. So
Speaker 1: it's not a ton when you look at it from
Speaker 1: the perspective of where we were six months ago. But
Speaker 1: we'd like to see this calm down soon because more
Speaker 1: bitcoin moving to exchanges. It kind of signals that a
Speaker 1: lot of people are waiting for their price to hit
Speaker 1: so they can sell and get out. Yeah, great point.
Speaker 2: I've been noticing. I was like, as I was watching
Speaker 2: the data this week, and I'm like, oh, I see
Speaker 2: the uptick, I see the decline with the whale was
Speaker 2: holding bitcoin ten or more. And I'm like, it seems
Speaker 2: like this is the start of something. Are they anticipating
Speaker 2: another major local top or a market blow up? Top
Speaker 2: come later or I should say, come end of Q two,
Speaker 2: Maybe it's around May or June.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we haven't talked about it yet. But
Speaker 1: the the thing that is the elephant in the room
Speaker 1: is all of the macroeconomic factors that are affecting the
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred right now, and how crypto
Speaker 1: is still very correlated with the S and P. So
Speaker 1: not having control, even if you're a big wealthy whale,
Speaker 1: not having control over what Trump does next, what Musk
Speaker 1: or Putin or Zelensky does, whatever your opinions are. The
Speaker 1: uncertainty of where the world stands. The uncertainty of whether
Speaker 1: you know Canada in the US, or Australia in the US,
Speaker 1: or China in the US can get a lot right
Speaker 1: now because of these tearff wars that are happening. That
Speaker 1: causes chaos and tends to get bigger capital investors a
Speaker 1: little more conservative and act safer when they aren't as
Speaker 1: confident about where the world is going to go next.
Speaker 1: So I think that that explains some of the behavior
Speaker 1: that we're seeing with the supplant exchanges moving up and
Speaker 1: even some of their mild profit taking that they were
Speaker 1: especially doing in the second half of February.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that definitely makes sense. It's certainly well. I should say,
Speaker 2: there's a lot of uncertainty out there, and I can
Speaker 2: see why. You know, people who are not looking at
Speaker 2: data are caught in a wilmin of that right and
Speaker 2: the emotional rollercoaster. But I love going to the data
Speaker 2: on sentiment and being able to put my emotions to
Speaker 2: the side and say, Okay, what's happening this This is
Speaker 2: just such insightful information.
Speaker 1: Thanks man. Yeah, I'll affward that memo to the devs
Speaker 1: who are constantly working on suuring that we've got some
Speaker 1: relevant data that's easy to digest. And all this data,
Speaker 1: if you remember, is on the blockchain. It's not like
Speaker 1: we have proprietary information that the rest of the world doesn't.
Speaker 1: What we do is curate it and turn it into
Speaker 1: something meaningful and easy to evaluate through all these summarized
Speaker 1: infographics and stuff. And then there's the social side, which
Speaker 1: I'm showing now, so we can see things like which
Speaker 1: coins are trending the most, which trending words are popping
Speaker 1: up across social media the most, And these are the
Speaker 1: kinds of things that really do impact markets pretty significantly.
Speaker 1: We can see things like gold trending right now because
Speaker 1: when things get bearish for the midterm, like they have been,
Speaker 1: or at least the sentiments are turning bearish, that's when
Speaker 1: you see people talking more about getting into safe havens,
Speaker 1: things that historically never lose their value even when macroeconomic
Speaker 1: conditions get pretty dicey. So gold and silver have been
Speaker 1: talked about a lot more with people talking about the
Speaker 1: price levels. DOGE is actually referring mostly to the Musk's initiative.
Speaker 1: I can't remember the abbreviation right now, but it's actually
Speaker 1: funny that dog is trending, even though it's mostly due
Speaker 1: to the doge that Musk is running. M interesting.
Speaker 2: So let's go into some of the top all coins
Speaker 2: like Etherorem, and we'll talk about Salon and XRP as well.
Speaker 1: Sure, so we'll start with Ethereum. I actually just yeah,
Speaker 1: it really has, and I just put an insight out
Speaker 1: about it yesterday. I'll show you will you steer into
Speaker 1: the ether fear. Please feel free to hire me if
Speaker 1: you're interested in these creative rhymes. Guys, it took me
Speaker 1: a long time, but yeah, the crowd sentiment has absolutely plummeted.
Speaker 1: I did a little infographic. It's maybe a little more
Speaker 1: busy than I wanted it to look, but you get
Speaker 1: the idea. This line means there's an equal amount of
Speaker 1: positive versus negative comments. This is one and a half
Speaker 1: to one, This is two to one positive to negative,
Speaker 1: and this is three to one. So you definitely don't
Speaker 1: want to see sentiment way up here. This is where
Speaker 1: you tend to see tops and prices go down. Here,
Speaker 1: it's still a little bit too bullish most of the time. Here,
Speaker 1: it's actually pretty neutral. So like a resting state for
Speaker 1: social media is usually like one and a half to
Speaker 1: one for most of the top comments or top social
Speaker 1: media platforms toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, et cetera. So when
Speaker 1: you see it start to go below there, that's when
Speaker 1: you know that the crowd is genuinely starting to get
Speaker 1: super scared and expressing a lot of fud. And as
Speaker 1: you would imagine with the year that Ethereum has seen,
Speaker 1: there's a massive amount of bearishness that's really starting to
Speaker 1: form here one, two, three, four, five straight days where
Speaker 1: we're below this line, meaning there's actually more negative comments
Speaker 1: overall across social media than positive right now. And that's
Speaker 1: actually a good thing. So it's easy to fall into
Speaker 1: the trap of thinking, well, Ethereum's done, it's underperformed compared
Speaker 1: to XRP and cardono and doge and Bitcoin. That's actually
Speaker 1: a good sign, especially when it's combined with the fact
Speaker 1: that the crowd has written it off, because this means
Speaker 1: that whales and sharks can easily hoard more coins, which
Speaker 1: they are, to an extent, looks better than Bitcoin, and
Speaker 1: then they can pump up prices once Bitcoin starts to
Speaker 1: recover and allow the rest of the markets to do
Speaker 1: its thing. So don't I kind of like this a
Speaker 1: lot right now. It doesn't necessarily automatically mean Ethereum is
Speaker 1: on the brink of taking off, but from a mid
Speaker 1: or long term perspective, this is a great sign. The
Speaker 1: fact that, you know, just seeing these yellow bars declining
Speaker 1: over time the way they have, it's it's pretty clear
Speaker 1: that the crowd is just done. They're done with Ethereum.
Speaker 1: They believe it's it's a disappointment. And you know, XRP
Speaker 1: and maybe even Solana will pass it soon in market cap,
Speaker 1: which would be a huge milestone. Ethereum has been in
Speaker 1: the number two spot for almost a decade now, so
Speaker 1: it's crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know I mentioned earlier I bought the dip.
Speaker 2: I specifically bought some eth Sui and XRP, just buying
Speaker 2: those lows, right, And I obviously I'm diversified, but I
Speaker 2: saw eth as a big opportunity because it's just so
Speaker 2: down and just the sentiment is so bad, and I'm like,
Speaker 2: like I said, I've seen this story before, and I
Speaker 2: put the majority of my diet, my funds, my dry
Speaker 2: powder in eathen in buying that.
Speaker 1: Dip totally, I don't blame you at all, and I
Speaker 1: hope it ends up being a good decision for you.
Speaker 1: But based on the data, I mean, it seems pretty
Speaker 1: logical that there will be some regression to the mean eventually.
Speaker 1: Not just because it's underperformed price wise, and you know,
Speaker 1: prices tend to rubber band against each other, but if
Speaker 1: it's if it's underperformed and the crowd is is just
Speaker 1: giving up on it, that's a pretty good combination for sure.
Speaker 2: So let's look at Solana and how that's been doing.
Speaker 2: I know, the mean coins that are you know, specifically
Speaker 2: on Solana that has been really hyped up with pump
Speaker 2: not fun. A lot of that market has died down.
Speaker 2: So how has that affect at Solana.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so from a discussion standpoint, they're pretty much at
Speaker 1: their lowest point since uh pre Trump election. They they
Speaker 1: really have seen a deep fall off from a price perspective.
Speaker 1: We went down, man, more than I thought. It's down
Speaker 1: somewhere between forty seven to fifty percent since it's high
Speaker 1: back on right before Trump's inauguration. So the discussion rate
Speaker 1: is in the toilet. There's just very little discussion compared
Speaker 1: to other alt coins right now. And then from a
Speaker 1: sentiment just overall, like positive versus negative sentiment perspective, I'd
Speaker 1: be surprised if it's not bearish. Right now, it's definitely bearish.
Speaker 1: So look at this just compared to where things were
Speaker 1: that like late December early to mid January. Interestingly, here
Speaker 1: I found this odd that the huge surge that happened
Speaker 1: on the eighteenth and nineteenth resulted in very bearished discussion.
Speaker 1: If I remember, there were some weird network issues though
Speaker 1: happening at that time, so it might have been kind
Speaker 1: of skewed due to having trouble with transactions Solana. Sorry
Speaker 1: for the Salona fans, but they do have some network
Speaker 1: issues famously from time to time that other al coins
Speaker 1: have not. Maybe over the long term that'll pash itself out,
Speaker 1: but that does impact sentiments a lot for Solana either way.
Speaker 1: Right now, it looks like people are pretty low on
Speaker 1: it compared to other old coins. You can see pretty
Speaker 1: visually hear how things have declined in positive versus negative comments.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then there's been a lot of controversy of
Speaker 2: course around meme coins and pumped out fund which are
Speaker 2: you know, Solana based. So I think with that aspect
Speaker 2: of the market drawing up, it's probably affecting Solana. Not
Speaker 2: entirely obviously, because you got the entire market sentiment down,
Speaker 2: but a lot of Solana's utility was coming from meme
Speaker 2: coins over the past year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's actually a good point. And I was just
Speaker 1: checking out the overall mentions of Salona meme coins over
Speaker 1: the past three months here it looks like things have
Speaker 1: really cooled off in discussions. So despite there being controversies,
Speaker 1: it's mostly just resulting in people not wanting to talk
Speaker 1: about it much at all. Meme coins in general, as
Speaker 1: we've talked about in previous episodes, Tony, they're just kind
Speaker 1: of being abandoned at at the moment because people are
Speaker 1: so scared of losing another you know, twenty percent in
Speaker 1: a given day.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then you know, there was that big I think,
Speaker 2: what was it, Javier Malay, president of Argentina Argentina and
Speaker 2: what happened there. That was a pretty bad one. So look,
Speaker 2: I know I'm a bit biased. I don't believe in
Speaker 2: meme coins, although I believe in people's freedom to invest
Speaker 2: in what they want, but I'm not a fan of
Speaker 2: men coins. But obviously there needs to be some control
Speaker 2: where the law enforcement needs to act on people who
Speaker 2: are creating rug polls. You know, there are legit meme
Speaker 2: coins out there that have community, a brand, doge and
Speaker 2: so forth, but you know the ones that I was
Speaker 2: started last night or last week, that those are the
Speaker 2: ones up more against.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're like me, Tony, where the more
Speaker 1: you can actually analyze a coin and have some predictability
Speaker 1: to it, the better the investment is. And the thing
Speaker 1: with meme coins is they're literally a lottery. You're betting
Speaker 1: on how other people are going to perceive the coin
Speaker 1: that you're investing in. So when you don't have that
Speaker 1: power to look at things like development activity, because there
Speaker 1: really isn't development activity when it comes to meme coins,
Speaker 1: and there's unpredictable on chain activity, and you know, there's
Speaker 1: such a centralized proportion of the coins being held by
Speaker 1: the founders. It's just it makes it a bit of
Speaker 1: a luck factor that I think for people who've been
Speaker 1: in crypto a long time, it tends to make them
Speaker 1: pretty uncomfortable if it's all about luck and there's no
Speaker 1: ed or ability to analyze to an extent where things
Speaker 1: are going to go next.
Speaker 2: Oh absolutely, that's definitely how I feel, all right, let's
Speaker 2: wrap it up with XRP and what you're seeing there
Speaker 2: on multiple fronts.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so XRP should look a little bit better because
Speaker 1: it's it's actually held up pretty well, so just like
Speaker 1: other old coins. I mean, it's definitely dropped from it's
Speaker 1: high on the sixteenth or so. It's down about twenty
Speaker 1: nine percent, not nearly as much as the fifty percent,
Speaker 1: soalanas down. It had its big run ups right after
Speaker 1: Trump's election, mainly I think that was mainly due to
Speaker 1: the SEC turnover, and out of all the top caps,
Speaker 1: you can think of XRP as the one that's had
Speaker 1: the most roller coaster ride with the SEC. So when
Speaker 1: they hear that Gensler is going to be out of office,
Speaker 1: an asset like XRP is going to get a lot
Speaker 1: more money poured into it. So that's exactly what happened.
Speaker 1: But obviously over the last couple of months turned down
Speaker 1: just like everything else. Active addresses, though, is interesting. There's
Speaker 1: been a sudden influx, and I wish I knew what
Speaker 1: this was related to, but pretty much two weeks ago
Speaker 1: from today, we started to see address activity go from
Speaker 1: like maybe fifty eight fifty nine thousand active addresses per
Speaker 1: day to now at least over the last seven days
Speaker 1: one hundred eighty thousand, so it's tripled during that time.
Speaker 1: That's that's huge. It doesn't necessarily automatically signal bullishness, but
Speaker 1: it means that the utility of XRP is just surging
Speaker 1: right now. From an MVRV perspective. Short term wise, there's
Speaker 1: some meat on the bone for a little more rise
Speaker 1: because traders are down about five percent. But long term,
Speaker 1: because it had such a huge end of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 1: average traders are still up about thirty eight percent. That
Speaker 1: scares me a little bit. You can see even back
Speaker 1: here was off the access where average traders were up
Speaker 1: like one hundred and fifty two hundred percent on average.
Speaker 1: These are just like comically high numbers, which signaled we
Speaker 1: were bound to see a top around here. And even
Speaker 1: here anytime, it's like over one hundred percent returns for
Speaker 1: just any address that's been active on average. That's a
Speaker 1: little terrifying, but it's it's at least calmed down a little.
Speaker 1: I'd like to see, you know, maybe sub twenty percent
Speaker 1: long term. MBRV as a good signal you can buy
Speaker 1: in or add on with confidence. It just it still
Speaker 1: looks a little overheated on the long term. But obviously
Speaker 1: there's you know, real world factors with the SEC at
Speaker 1: play that can or like any being announced later this summer,
Speaker 1: that's something a lot of people are anticipating, and that
Speaker 1: can just change everything and throw a lot of these
Speaker 1: metrics out the window.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a great point because exactly where you're saying,
Speaker 2: there's such a huge connection between Ripple and the SEC
Speaker 2: and at anything that the SEC does in favor of
Speaker 2: crypto kind of automatically pushes this bullish sentiment towards Ripple
Speaker 2: and XRP because it's just such this long standing thing.
Speaker 2: It's like its own meme, so to speak. Yeah, everybody's
Speaker 2: aware of it, and the SEC has been dropping cases
Speaker 2: and then new new SEC chair is coming in. Then
Speaker 2: you have all these XRP SPOTTYTF applications being filed. So
Speaker 2: there's like this strong correlation with sentiment there exactly.
Speaker 1: I just saw yesterday on x there was one of
Speaker 1: the featured headlines on that right panel was like SEC
Speaker 1: and XRP lawsuit finally maybe coming to a conclusion, And
Speaker 1: I was like, didn't that already happen? Like I can't
Speaker 1: even keep track of the I'm sure the people who
Speaker 1: are heavily invested in XRP know a lot more about it,
Speaker 1: and they might be rolling their eyes at what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: But for people who just follow all coins versus just
Speaker 1: one particular coin, it's actually really difficult to keep up
Speaker 1: sometimes with all these developments. Because I know that the
Speaker 1: lawsuit happened almost two years ago. Now there was an appeal,
Speaker 1: the appeal never really got to the table, and now
Speaker 1: the secs it kind of picked and choose and chose
Speaker 1: it a few other things with XRP, and then I
Speaker 1: guess where we're at now is that's coming to an
Speaker 1: end now too. So XRP and it's large community, you
Speaker 1: may finally be able to breathe and just focus on,
Speaker 1: you know, the innovation and improvement of its asset, just
Speaker 1: like every other all coin. Yeah, I think a lot
Speaker 1: of people are waiting in anticipation. I think the final
Speaker 1: thing is just that resolution. There's one hundred twenty five
Speaker 1: million dollars. Fine, but there's reports that Ripple may be
Speaker 1: pushing back on that, given that the SEC's taking a
Speaker 1: different stance overall to the crypto market. And I personally
Speaker 1: have the theory that they may be waiting for the
Speaker 1: chair to new chair, to Paul Atkins to come in
Speaker 1: to resolve some of these more complex things. But the
Speaker 1: point is the market and the community and so are
Speaker 1: looking I think people are looking at it positively like
Speaker 1: this is going to resolve. We know, because we're under
Speaker 1: the most pro crypto regime and the SEC's changed their stands,
Speaker 1: no more against them and hopefully to some resolution soon. Right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: thanks for that clarification. You know more about it than me,
Speaker 1: but hopefully hopefully there's a resolution. And I was just
Speaker 1: checking out, like the one million or more holders, So
Speaker 1: this is you know, people with with XRP at about
Speaker 1: two dollars thirty cents. This is anyone with about two
Speaker 1: point three million dollars or more. Consider them sharks and whales.
Speaker 1: They hold about seventy three point eighty six percent of
Speaker 1: the supply and about forty six point four to two
Speaker 1: billion XRP. The overall supply is going up, but the
Speaker 1: percentage of supplies stringing down just a little bit. We'd
Speaker 1: like to see that start to move positive soon. In fact,
Speaker 1: there's definitely some correlation with the price. I just want
Speaker 1: to show you this, so I'll just hide the overall amount.
Speaker 1: From a percentage standpoint, yeah, you can see they really
Speaker 1: took a lot of profit beginning in early December, right
Speaker 1: at this top when it got to like two eighty four,
Speaker 1: and even during this high or high, they were already
Speaker 1: kind of taking profit, which is interesting to me. Even
Speaker 1: back here, you can see they were accumulating as price
Speaker 1: was going down, and then they really started to take
Speaker 1: profit again after that rise. I know this this looks small,
Speaker 1: but this was still a pretty big percentage gain back here.
Speaker 1: So I'd still like to see the smart money moving
Speaker 1: in the positive direction again. But you know, it's just
Speaker 1: one element to many of many different analytic perspectives we
Speaker 1: can look at.
Speaker 2: This is such great insight, Brian. So I love Santaman's
Speaker 2: platform and being able to go through it because, like
Speaker 2: I said earlier, with the turmoil of the markets, and
Speaker 2: we're all human, so we feel the emotional impact of
Speaker 2: price movements, and to go to the data and say okay,
Speaker 2: this is what's happening and filter out the noise and
Speaker 2: all that is really great. So hopefully when we meet
Speaker 2: in another two weeks, things are in a much better
Speaker 2: spot and bitcoin is fighting some strength and moving up.
Speaker 1: He's hoping man looking forward to the next talk. Awesome
Speaker 1: thanks Brian Tak