Speaker 1: What's going on.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. It
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your support. Tons of messages. I'm gonna try to get
to all of them and your calls, So let me
start here. Picking up on message from Timoteo from last
hour in the conversations we've been having about all of
the tariff strategy. Here, he says, the miscalculation I believe
Trump has made is that the Chinese leader g has
no problem letting his people starve in order to win
a trade war. Personally, I'm sitting on some cash after
pulling my money out the day before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
I will buy the dip. Trump is using tariffs as
a participation fee if you want to sell in the US.
The US wants a taste, and I don't agree with that.
Speaker 1: Approach. That's from Timoteo.
Speaker 2: And then this is from Moral Compass, who says you
are correct about companies moving from China to Vietnam. Nintendo
moved production of the switch to which is I think
that's the handheld gaming thing. Yeah, the handheld video game system.
And so they moved production of the switch to to
Vietnam and just announced a few hours ago that they
are delaying pre orders in the US because of the uncertainty.
And I did see this. This is from Nintendo and
Game Stop, which is the store that sells video game stuff.
Pre Orders for Nintendo Switch To in the US will
not start April ninth in order to assess the potential
impact of tariffs and devolving market conditions. Nintendo will update
timing at a later date. The launch date of June
fifth is unchanged, so they do. So there's a difference
here the launch versus the pre order, right, so you
pre order your device and then you're basically guaranteed one,
you're reserving one, and then when they launch on June fifth,
then you go to the store and you pick it up.
Speaker 1: Right, And so.
Speaker 2: They're still looking to do the launch on June fifth,
but they're not doing pre orders now, and I suspect
that's because they don't know what to sell them for.
GameStop will continue to work closely with Nintendo and provide
updates as soon as more information becomes available. Stay tuned
for details. Okay, so that's from GameStop. And and I
mentioned earlier Nintendo moved more than half of its US
hardware or sorry, more than half of it's US hardware
is manufactured in Vietnam and Cambodia. Now Nintendo is thanks
to the adjustments that Nintendo made during Trump's first term. Right,
So Trump nails China with the tariffs as a way
to induce manufacturers to get out of China, and it works.
They go to Vietnam, also communist and Cambodia, and now
he's hit them with tariffs. Well I shouldn't say them
because I don't know if Cambodia got hit with tariffs too.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, both of them.
Speaker 2: So both Vietnam and Cambodia apparently both got forty seven
percent tariffs on them.
Speaker 1: And so now are they going to move again? I
don't know.
Speaker 2: Representative Jeff Van Drew, Republican from New Jersey, went on
Fox Business Channel and he said we We knew this
was going to be a little bit bumpy in the beginning.
But let's understand what it's about. It's about fairness. It's
about America first, not America last. We have been getting
the short end of the stick for years, and it's
important that Americans understand this. These are reciprocal tariffs. See
I disagree with that. I think reciprocal means they're equal,
and that is not what's happening. We have been tariffed,
our goods are tarriffed. We are always at an unfair
disadvantage with these countries. So it's going to be a
little bumpy. They are going to cry, they are going
to yell. I spoke to the President personally yesterday. He
was telling me that already countries are coming to him
and saying, let's work this out. We can make a
fair deal. We can do better. We will everybody, just
hold on a little bit, be a little strong. Wall
Street will come back. But this is also about Main Street.
This is about making things in America. I will point
out though, that the initial line from the White House,
their position was that the tariffs were not negotiable, and
when people were saying that this is being done in
order to prompt negotiations. They were told, no, that's not
the case, and now we're hearing that they are negotiating.
Donald Trump just put out a post on truth Social
had a very productive call to with Toe Lamb, or
to Lamb, who was the General secretary of the Communist
Party of the Vietnam who told me that Vietnam wants
to cut their tariffs down to zero if they are
able to make an agreement with the US. I thanked
him on behalf of our country and said, I look
forward to meeting in the near future. So it is
about negotiations. So they were just lying yesterday in order
to negotiations. And maybe that's the case. That's what I said, Like,
if this all works out, then Donald Trump will go
down in history as a transformative in a good way,
a transformative president.
Speaker 1: But he better be right, Like that's the thing. You
better be right. That's the deal.
Speaker 2: Like when you play in these types of high stakes
games and literally billions of people's standard of living depend
on you not messing up and getting a deal done.
Speaker 1: If you're not successful, you've harmed a lot of people.
Speaker 2: The trade announcements have sparked uncertainty about the cost of
goods to Americans, which the White House Press Secretary of
Caroline Levitt brushed aside Tuesday during a press briefing, arguing
that the tariff plan is going to work quote which
again I say, let's hope. So one other thing I
came across this the other day. There is a guy
by the name of Frank Dakota. He is a senior
fellow at the Hoover Institute, and he has recently returned
to the United States after living in Hong Kong since
two thousand and six. And he's got a book called
China after Mao, The Rise of a Superpower, and he
actually challenges the prevailing narrative about China's rise. He argues
that the Communist Party has projected very masterfully, but has
projected an image of a powerful, modern, and economically dominant nation.
But that is largely a facade, which does make sense
because rule number one communists lie. You ever see those
videos of like, oh, look, this is the Chinese building
a building in twenty four hours. It's like time lapse
video where it shows them putting up a building, like
usually in the middle of nowhere or some farmers field,
or something, which they you know, kicked the farmer off
that land and took the land and set up a
video camera and recorded the construction of this building. And
it's supposed to demoralize other countries. It's supposed to show
look at us, look at our cities, We're awesome, right,
Which now, as I'm saying that, it reminds me, I
forget the Soviet leader that came to America for like
some un deal or whatever. And as he's flying into
New York City, it's rush hour and he sees all
of the cars basically just you know, jammed up in
New York City for miles and miles all around, just
just traffic everywhere. As he's flying in, and he becomes irate,
thinking that this was American propaganda, meant to send a
message that we are more advanced than you are. Right,
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Deep breaths, everybody, Let's go to the phones and talk
with Ray. Hello Ray, Welcome to the program.
Speaker 3: Hello Pete. He had a couple of things. I don't
worry about what I've heard it say a few times
that Trump and or Elon are for these tariffs to
tank the market and buy back in real low and
make a killing. I say that because, number one, I
think Trump's he's more concerned about his legacy than making
more money because he doesn't have them. You know, he
has more than he'll ever spend to start with, and
he wouldn't have risked a couple of assassinations tempts if
he were just in it for the money. So I
feel good about that part. And the other part is
if the teriffs work and don't turn out the way
you're saying they could, then everything will be probably great.
And I think part of this strategy might be to
get people to the negotiating table. But he's not going
to come out and say that's the purpose of it.
Of course, he's going to say it's not for negotiation.
It's like a poker player playing poker, and you know
your opponent across the room has figured out that when
you've got a good hand, you twitch your left lip
a certain way and you know he's thinking that, and
then you when you get a good hand, you're aware
of that and you don't twitch your left lip and
make him make the wrong move by betting or calling.
And so therefore I think he's playing more cards than
I've heard people say that he's playing three dimensional chess.
That's my big comments.
Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate the call.
Speaker 2: And to Ray's point, I've never said that he's doing
this to buy in them.
Speaker 1: I've heard that too.
Speaker 2: What the Ray's first point that you know, the left
is out there saying that Trump and Musk are just
doing this for, you know, to buy stocks low when
they're cheaper and all that.
Speaker 1: I don't believe that. Well I should. I have no evidence.
I have no evidence that that's the case.
Speaker 2: And as president, Trump doesn't control his portfolio, right, so
I've seen no evidence for that.
Speaker 1: And I think Ray is right.
Speaker 2: I think Trump does care more about being known as
the best president in American history.
Speaker 1: He wants a legacy.
Speaker 2: He is like we have stories like Bill O'Reilly told
us that he met with Trump right before inauguration day
and Trump asked O'Reilly, what do I need to do
to be you know, one of the best presidents in history,
and O'Reilly told him fulfill your campaign promises. So I
think I think that is what is motivating Donald Trump.
Now that being said, I think there's also this element
that that people who have a high trust in Trump,
then they are going to trust that what he is
doing is part of a strategy and that he is
adept at doing it right.
Speaker 1: And that's fine.
Speaker 2: I tend not to trust people in government, like I'm
skeptical of their abilities to do this kind of stuff.
And again I say it every single segment. It seems
like I hope it all works because the alternative is
going to be it could be pretty bad, Alan says Pete.
The pain Because I was asking earlier how long is
the short term pain? Nobody will tell us the pain
was coming. Either way, whether we manage the pain or
get hit with the pain that we pretended not to
know was coming, might mean we are only in slightly
less pain than we.
Speaker 1: Could have been.
Speaker 2: Did you follow that, remember China recalling the mask shipments
during COVID. I do, yeah, and that it became very
obvious during COVID how reliant we were on foreign nations.
Speaker 1: Right, the global trade.
Speaker 2: Model has serious risks, and not just for a pandemic,
but if a country decides to shut off access right
to these critical things that a country needs. And at
the time, I was saying, yes, we should have critical
production in America for things that you know, we do
not want to rely on a foreign country to like
make our AMMO for example, right because if we ever
get sideways with that other country and now we have
no AMMO, or we got to ramp up the production
of ammunition, you know, and then you're scrambled to do that.
Steve says it's a pete tweet. He says, the Democrats
are mad, but wait until Trump's policies work. Democrats will
then be absolutely livid. See that's the difference. If they work,
I'm gonna be happy. I'm gonna be happy. If they
don't work, Democrats will not be See there's the difference.
Tyler says, one hundred percent agree with you on the
tariff's issue. Let me go back to I mention this
guy Dakota who wrote this book China after Mao, The
Rise of a Superpower, and he contends that far from
being a true superpower, China remains fundamentally fragile an empire
held together by repression, propaganda, and paranoia. Despite its gleaming
cities and impressive seeming economic statistics often cited by the West,
Dakota asserts that much of China's so called growth has
been built on the backs of an impoverished population, often
without their consent or benefit. He also explains how inflated numbers,
hollowed out institutions, and internal contradictions undermine China's long term strength.
In his view, the Chinese Communist Party has not lifted
hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It has
merely stepped aside as ordinary people began reclaiming their autonomy
after decades of devastation under Mao.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: So they're projecting power, they're projecting modernity, but they are
not powerful. They are not modern, Dakota believes, or sorry.
He delves into how the Communist Party's fear of its
own citizens, its fear of capitalism, its fear of peaceful evolution,
has driven decisions for decades. He draws parallels with the
Soviet Union and says that just like the USSR, China's
power is brittle beneath the surface. Xixenping, who is relative
I believe of Winnie the Pooh argues is not a
break from tradition, but a continuation of the party's long
standing obsession with control. I was watching an interview this
morning with this guy who was a senior fellow at
the Hoover Institution, and he had lived in Hong Kong.
Just got back from Hong Kong. He was there for
like twenty years, wrote this book, and he says that
in China, the state is rich, but the people are poor.
The people of China have the lowest share of GDP
in the modern world, right. And I remember when the
Soviet Union fell, it was it caught the West by
total surprise. I think, like months prior or something, the
CIA had put had done some ass essment and said that,
you know, the Soviets were strong and things were going
really well for them, and you know they're going to
be around for decades to come. And then you know,
like the next day the wall comes down, right. Well,
I mean it wasn't that, but it was. It was
very quick, very soon after the CIA assessment, and then
you know, Gorbachrov has to leave on the plane. Boris
Yeltsen goes in there, he's drinking and dancing, and you
know whatever historical record is clear on all of that.
But I'm not so sure that China is as strong
as well. No, I do not believe that China is
as strong as it wants us to think it is.
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let's go over to the phones. We'll take another call here.
This is Danny.
Speaker 4: Hello, Danny, Hey, Pete, Hey Friday.
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, you too.
Speaker 4: You know, Pete, I'm like you, and that many of
my opinions are formed by some type of evidence based
information or data.
Speaker 1: That's so, that's so old school, Danny.
Speaker 4: It is. And you know, we've created such an immediate
satisfaction society that like, we want to know the answers now.
And the reality is these terraces and let's take a
step back. Our economy in the United States as well
as the world's economy, is that fabric is sown by
so many threads that we could spend eight hours a
day for the next month talking about it and still
people not have a full grasp on you know, what
this all means and how this all works. The one
thing we do know, though it's evidence based, is our
decline in our country for years now. Some may say
that's purposeful. You look at the smaller towns and I
call them M and M towns. It's meth and medicaid
because the factories have left, the streets left, the businesses left,
and these small towns that's sad. It's very very sad
to see what's left. And we've created dependence on government
in these small towns. And so when you start to
talk about well, how do we change that, how do
we turn that? Well, it took fifty sixty years for
us to get here, and you know it's going to
take quite a while, I think, to turn that around.
But some of the evidence, too, is that Trump's been
talking about this. You look at his old clips from
Oprah and way back when He's been talking about some
of these things for a long time. And what most
politicians can't do is what they promise and what they
talk about because the instant gratification of our society. Look
at how the Democrats now are just demonizing everything and
putting everything into panic in wall streets. All this is
fear selling and panic when there's no evidence that anything's
happened yet.
Speaker 3: He just an housteak but.
Speaker 2: No, but they're taking effect, like some of these are
taking effect tomorrow, so Wall Street and yeah, and the
Wall Street traders are trying to trade based on predictions
of what's going to happen. So that's by its very
nature going to get rattled when they don't know if
the proposal is.
Speaker 1: In fact real.
Speaker 2: That's part of the problem, right, they have there's uncertainty,
and that creates problems for people that are trying to,
you know, buy stocks.
Speaker 4: But the uncertainty is is fact of the immediate gratification,
Like they could do really good and not do bad.
We don't know that yet, So all this is over fear,
fear of the unknown. It's a democratic playbook. For years,
it's been well, we better not do that because it m.
Speaker 3: X y Z.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: I would submit Danny that anytime you are looking at
any kind of a policy, it's incumbent upon you to
look at the potential consequences, good and bad.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I think there's possibly the big problem with
what Trump's doing is has been his messaging over what
the results. He's the clarity around what these things all mean,
because on one hand, he could talk about that, but
then he loses leverage in his negotiation. On the other hand,
he leads it a secret to up the leverage in
the negotiation. But the downside to that is the unknown
by the people and the knee jerk reactions and the panic.
And then all of a sudden, the media is against him,
which they had always been against him, But then you
have this sentiment that then overrides anything he could be doing,
and to the point where now even Republican politicians are
lining up to go against him because of that panic
in that fear.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's got a very short he's got a very
short window, a small window to realize whatever benefits that
he's trying to extract, assuming that the tariffs are a tool,
which I'm not certain that that's the case. His comments
and what I have heard from people who have talked
with him about it, is that he believes that tariffs
are the end in and of themselves.
Speaker 1: He just he likes tariffs.
Speaker 4: Well, but is that messaging because of his leverage in
that negotiating power of.
Speaker 2: That No, this is what he has believed. Going back,
He thinks that he looks at the trade deficit as
US getting cheated. And it's a very simplistic way of
looking at a trade deficit, because it's not getting cheated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and as you said, right, because.
Speaker 2: There are so many facts, right, there are so many
factors involved that looking at it as like some loss
versus gain, it's like, that's not what this indicates.
Speaker 4: Well, and again it goes back to the complexity of
it all and that you know, and then you look
at that again the google back to it didn't get
We didn't get this way overnight, right, This took a
long time. So what makes anybody think that it's going
to be overnight that we get out of this or
that these tariffs are going to work overnight? Because that's
what Wall Street would love to have, is an answer
that says this is what's going to happen, and this
is what it's going to be tomorrow, right, and the
market would go crazy and everything's beautiful in rainbows and butterflies.
But the reality is it's going to take a while
and there's probably going to be some pain. It's like
cripping off the band aid.
Speaker 1: Oh there's all.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they have said, they've promised that there's going to
be pain. They say it's short term and then it's
going to go great. But that's why I keep asking, like,
how long is this short term.
Speaker 1: So, but I don't know.
Speaker 4: Nobody to know if you're asking an immediate gratification society
that question.
Speaker 2: Two mm, yeah, we think in quarters. China thinks in decades.
So Danny, yeah, yeah, I appreciate the call, sir, have
a great weekend.
Speaker 4: Thank you.
Speaker 1: H Right, buddy.
Speaker 2: To Danny's point about the messaging, and again, if the
messaging is designed to be chaotic in order to give
the White House the most leverage, mission accomplished right there are.
This is Megan McCardell, writing at The Washington Post. She said,
there are four broad arguments that have been used to
justify the tariff regime. All right, if you're listening to
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Speaker 1: Four broad arguments.
Speaker 2: One idea is that these are a negotiating tool to
force other countries to lower their trade barriers, not just tariffs,
but other barriers. Another is they will restore our manufacturing
base and turn us into a superpower exporter of goods,
not services. Third explanation is that we're trying to halt
China's rise to a geostrategic as a geostrategic rival. And
the fourth is that we need to rebuild our manufacturing
capacity for vital goods like semiconductors in case of another
pandemic or war. Okay, like these are the four broad
arguments that Trump and his supporters have offered to justify
the tariffs problems With these, though, I'll circle back the
Sacki style to that. First, let me go over to
phones talk with Sam. Hello Sam, welcome to the program.
Speaker 5: Hello Pete. How are you.
Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm good. What's going on?
Speaker 5: Thank you? Thank you so much for taking my call.
And disagree, but I'm going to agree with a couple
of great things that you said and your caller said.
One the recent that the last caller said that this
the analysis of these tariffs need to be evidence based.
And then the second thing, the second thing you said,
which is really powerful, you said that you weren't certain
whether this was an employee to negotiate or that Trump
really believes in tariffs, right, And I think that's that's
very astute. What I both fear and i'm hopeful for
is that he believes in tariffs. These are going to
stick and it's going to be the biggest failure in
presidential fifty year history. And I think he does. I
think he does. And I'll make two points about why
tariffs on it aren't effective in I haven't heard this
in your grease and calls. It's impossible to disagree with
the fact that tariffs are inflationary. A quick example, I
read an interview this morning of a boot maker, one
of the largest boot makers and sellers in the United States.
He says, the best boots are made in the United States.
I sell them, my clients love them, but they're really expensive.
I sell most of my product imported from China. Those
boots are much less expensive and their high quality, and
now they're going to be more expensive to the consumer
because I'm passing off that cost entirely to the consumer.
We can't make boots as inexpensively as China does. So
why are we trying to, through tariffs, push our industry
to do what it cannot do because the cost of
goods is too high, because the cost of labor is
too high, we don't have employees that will work for
wages that they will work for in in Vietnam.
Speaker 2: Right, well, so, okay, so the right So the counter
on that is that that we should impose a tariff
that is comparable or or would offset the labor costs
that China enjoys because of its you know, child labor
and slave labor.
Speaker 5: Right, But but then you end up with simply a
product made in the United States that's much more expensive
to the United States buyers.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: That's been my right, That's and that is the generally
accepted wisdom of economists going back a century, which is
that when you put tariffs on products, they raise the
cost to the domestic consumer.
Speaker 5: And this is why I keep listening to you, even
though I'm progressive. We agreed on something.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's why you Oh, that's why you were hopeful
that they that you wanted the tariffs to stick, and
then Trump fails.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I got to hook out one more all right,
one more thing, one more thing.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 5: I think I think a key to the success of
this tariff effort is the one that he has imposed
on the Herd and McDonald Islands in Australia. He imposed
of tariff yesterday on the Herd and McDonald Islands, which
are uninhabited. The only thing that exists there are penguins.
Speaker 1: Yes, this has been.
Speaker 2: I will say that that tariff has actually prompted an
increase in production, an increase in production of hilarious means.
Speaker 1: That's that is what it is done.
Speaker 5: But it's it's evidence of incompetence, which is another reason
that I fear. I don't fear the Trump administration is
going to fail because that's incompetent, that's a complete fumble.
Speaker 2: And so this is one of the things I've heard
people's advising Democrats to do, is to like cut back
on all of the cussin and the the tricks and
the performances and the marches and all this. Just let
Trump do what he's going to do, and eventually he'll
do something and Democrats will be able to benefit from it.
And all of this stuff so far has not been
stuff that they're benefiting from, but this might be.
Speaker 4: Yes, sir, do you agree with that what you do?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah? Do you agree with that advice? Yeah? Do
you agree with that advice that does? No?
Speaker 5: I don't I need to. I believe that you need
to resist in every way possible. I don't believe you
do it with violence. I believe it you do it
with speech. I believe you write your congressman. I believe
you protest. I believe you point out the errors that
are being made. You keep fighting the good fight and
see what will happen. And we got to wait a
long time before there's another election. But I think that
I think that eventually he will shoot himself, not in
the foot, but in the head.
Speaker 2: So now I will tell you if you end up
being wrong and I and Trump is right, and I'm
you know I'm wrong, you guys are in some serious
trouble because if he actually does pull this off, I
don't know if you guys are gonna sniff the presidency
for a long time.
Speaker 5: Well, well, the market is going down because of the
anticipated inflation, right the market. That's that's why the market's
going down. And and that's it's gonna keep going down
as long as these tearfs remain in place. And eventually
Trump is gonna go back to his narcissism and say,
people don't like me. Therefore I'm gonna change my approach
because ultimately what gets to Donald Trump is when people
don't like him, people that matter, rich people don't like this. Yeah,
they're gonna, They're gonna it's eventually.
Speaker 1: I would right.
Speaker 2: So here's here's the only thing that I would uh,
I would caution you on. And it's a very common
thing happens on the right and the left, don't it. Well,
try to avoid making your warming opinions about things based
solely on Donald Trump and your belief in what he thinks,
because that that sort of prism that you're looking through,
it can distort reality for you.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah.
Speaker 5: The best advice that an investor can be received today
is that don't predict the future of the stock markets
based on what Donald Trump will do, because no one
bleeping nos that's possible.
Speaker 2: All right, Sam, I appreciate the call, sir, have a
great weekend. All right, buddy, thank you. It's interesting. We'll
go get David here too. Hello David, Welcome.
Speaker 1: To the show.
Speaker 6: Hello Pete. First of all, great show. Afforded the first
hour of your podcast yesterday to multiple people, and I
thought it was great, and well thanks, agree with you
pretty much one hundred percent. But I'm going to give
you some different takes because it would be boring if
I just repeated what you said. I'm a lifelong libertarian
leaning Republican. I've never voted for a Democrat. So when
i'm this tariff and Donald Trump, a lot of listeners
are gonna hate it, a lot of the Trump fans
and they're going to think, oh, seminar call er, he's
a Democrat. He's a Joe Biden fan. None of that
is true. But there's three points. The first one is
check out. I'm going to tell everyone check out the
op ed ped in Today's Wall Street Journal. President Trump
does not have the authority to unilaterally do that do
what he's doing, except for his emergency declaration, which is basically,
we would all not want the next person who replaces
him to govern like this, So when it's a Democrat,
we're going to hate when someone does this. The second
thing is I can't assume, and I agree with you,
that people who trust Trump already to assume that he
has some kind of grant he's like a grand master
chess player, and that he's got he knows every move
from right now till the end, and knows what checkmate
is going to look like. I don't believe any of
that because his words are so different every time he
talks about it, and he's so thickle, he changes all
the time. And the third thing is tariffs, like a
lot of things he's are not conservative, and so they've
never been conservative. And I tell a Republican conservatives and
Trump fans this all the time. He's really not that conservative, right,
And so when it failed. Don't blame conservatism on this.
And I was listening to Milton Friedman and Thomas Soul
and Hiak and all of them has never been a
conservative policies to do what we're doing now, So I
totally oppose what we're doing. I think you made a
great point about Honduras bananas yesterday. Why impose a tax
on the country that really can't buy from us? So anyway,
great show.
Speaker 1: Thanks David.
Speaker 6: That's my take, Yes, sir, Yeah.
Speaker 2: I appreciate it very well, said succinctly, more importantly because
I'm up against the end of the hour break. All right,
that'll do it for this episode. Thank you so much
for listening. I could not do the show without your
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and don't break anything while I'm gone.