1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,200 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is upon us. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 2: Here on beat on It, we're gonna break down the 3 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:09,119 Thanksgiving trio as well as Black Friday up next on 4 00:00:09,279 --> 00:00:09,800 bat on It. 5 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:27,079 Speaker 1: Welcome into bet on It. 6 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,079 Speaker 2: Kelly Stewart here joined with Yanni the Greek and Marco 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,640 D'Angelo of wager Talk dot Com Quick Show Today a 8 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:35,600 couple of days before Thanksgiving, so we wanted to get 9 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,439 you guys some early information on the Thanksgiving and Black 10 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,399 Friday slate. If you guys are looking for the college 11 00:00:42,399 --> 00:00:44,719 football edition to bet on It viaut Wednesday night on 12 00:00:44,759 --> 00:00:47,920 the wager Talking YouTube channel, as well as the Sunday 13 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:52,240 and Monday night football games for the NFL. All right, 14 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:53,960 we're gonna get right into this, guys. I got my 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:58,039 Odds logic screen open and we're gonna go rotation order down. 16 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,679 Green Bay starts at one pm Eastern on Thanksgiving, taking 17 00:01:02,679 --> 00:01:04,480 on Detroit. They are a two and a half point 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:09,719 underdog pretty much across the board total forty nine and VR. 19 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:10,680 I'm gonna let you go first. 20 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 1: We're gonna do roundtable style kind of like we used to. 21 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,799 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't want to paint myself into a corner 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,239 because I haven't gotten to the window with the Thanksgiving 23 00:01:19,239 --> 00:01:22,799 games yet. I have released two NFL games for Sunday, 24 00:01:23,079 --> 00:01:26,200 also a couple of college football, but still working on 25 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,719 these Thanksgiving games. Because the market's a little bit different. 26 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:33,560 You gotta remember each market, it depends on the participants 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,000 and when you get to a weekend like this where 28 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,920 there's a lot of people all from work, a lot 29 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,840 of primetime standalone TV games, betters are looking for action. 30 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,480 So there's gonna be a lot of public money overwhelming 31 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,799 the betting market, which should force a lot of line 32 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,680 moves that are not sharp money related. So it's a 33 00:01:54,799 --> 00:01:57,879 very different read of line movement. Here's what we had 34 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,040 for this game. It opened minus three. That was to 35 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,599 look ahead N forty seven now two and a half. 36 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:08,719 That's a big movement considering the books should expect Detroit money. 37 00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:12,199 They're a home team. Power rating wise, they're a little 38 00:02:12,199 --> 00:02:16,000 above green Bay. I have Detroit as in the top five. 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,599 I have green Bay right outside of my top five. 40 00:02:20,199 --> 00:02:24,439 Detroit's had the tougher strength of schedule. The defense for 41 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,000 green Bay has been their strength top five in the 42 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:32,080 NFL efficiency wise. They will get tested against the top 43 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,719 five offense this week, but it's on the defensive side 44 00:02:35,719 --> 00:02:37,400 of the ball that Green Bay is going to have 45 00:02:37,439 --> 00:02:40,159 a little bit easy go of it, meaning their offense 46 00:02:40,199 --> 00:02:42,680 has been their weakness, because you gotta remember the last 47 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,479 three games that the Packers lost, they only allowed ten 48 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,800 points and they lost that game. They allowed sixteen points 49 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,639 and they lost that game, and they allowed thirteen points 50 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,039 and they lost those games. So three games that they 51 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,960 defense allowed less than sixteen points and the offense was 52 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,360 and able to get them a W. In two of 53 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,039 those games it was thirteen or last points they allowed 54 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,719 and still didn't get the W. So it's the offense 55 00:03:08,879 --> 00:03:12,680 that's been struggling. Fortunately for them, they're going up against 56 00:03:12,759 --> 00:03:16,400 a weaker defense than they have of late. In fact, 57 00:03:16,599 --> 00:03:20,560 Detroit's not even in the top ten efficiency wise, but 58 00:03:20,599 --> 00:03:24,080 again they have had a top ten strength of schedule 59 00:03:24,439 --> 00:03:28,000 where it sits right now. If this was the game's 60 00:03:28,039 --> 00:03:30,479 kicking off in an hour from now, I would be all. 61 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:31,319 Speaker 4: Over Green Bay. 62 00:03:31,719 --> 00:03:32,479 Speaker 5: In a teaser. 63 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: I would take them up the plus eight and a half. 64 00:03:35,719 --> 00:03:39,960 Even though the total seems to be moving towards the over. 65 00:03:40,439 --> 00:03:43,319 That's not a surprise because the recreational betters will be 66 00:03:43,319 --> 00:03:45,919 betting this game over the total, so a lot of 67 00:03:45,919 --> 00:03:48,639 the bettingston gets know that, especially a weekend like this, 68 00:03:48,759 --> 00:03:51,840 they're gonna get out ahead of the market that's betting 69 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,400 from a position to strength. They go over forty seven, 70 00:03:54,599 --> 00:03:57,879 This gets the fifty. By Thursday. They're in the driver's seat. 71 00:03:58,039 --> 00:04:00,680 They have a nice middle, they have play CB ticket 72 00:04:00,759 --> 00:04:03,360 in their pocket, they have, you know, a great position 73 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,400 they find themselves in. So don't conclude that the overs, 74 00:04:06,639 --> 00:04:09,719 you know, a legit steam move. Follow that odds logic 75 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,919 screen and see if there's any resistance as the total 76 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:18,399 takes upwards past that forty nine, because I have it a. 77 00:04:18,439 --> 00:04:20,879 Speaker 4: Little bit lower. I actually made my total forty seven, 78 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,240 forty seven and a half, but I'm respecting the money 79 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,360 move that's forced it up the forty nine. So that's 80 00:04:27,399 --> 00:04:28,079 where I stand. 81 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,959 Speaker 3: I like Green Bay in a teaser right now up 82 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,480 to eight and a half and I lean under. But 83 00:04:34,759 --> 00:04:37,959 the market is respecting the over money early on, so 84 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:39,879 I have to, you know, monitor the line and see 85 00:04:39,879 --> 00:04:41,959 if I'm going to take any side, any position on 86 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:42,439 the total. 87 00:04:42,759 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with VR here. 88 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 2: I tas the Packers with the Jets and the Patriots 89 00:04:49,199 --> 00:04:51,439 Cardinals might still be an option for some of you, 90 00:04:51,519 --> 00:04:53,519 but not for me, at least none of those minus 91 00:04:53,519 --> 00:04:54,399 one ten teasers. 92 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: Marco D'Angelo before we started, VR said. 93 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 2: I might be an idiot for liking Bay, and I said, 94 00:05:01,079 --> 00:05:02,759 you're supposed to stay it out live on air. 95 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: So that I can teet up to Mark and be 96 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,480 like Marco, is VR an idiot? 97 00:05:06,519 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 5: Well, I'm not gonna call VR an idiot that I 98 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:12,480 can't disagree with the the teaser bit. I am going 99 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:14,759 to address, you know, the point that you made about 100 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,360 the initial move from three to two and a half. 101 00:05:17,399 --> 00:05:20,040 Now we know when we see those look ahead lines, 102 00:05:20,519 --> 00:05:24,360 that is before last week's games were played. So the 103 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:29,399 knee jerk reaction from watching last Sunday is the public 104 00:05:29,519 --> 00:05:33,040 saw Green Bay take care of Minnesota, or I should 105 00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:36,319 say JJ McCarthy took care of Minnesota. But they look 106 00:05:36,399 --> 00:05:41,519 good in winning will Detroit. Although we cast our team total, 107 00:05:41,879 --> 00:05:44,519 we needed over time to get that one home, and 108 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,720 I'll take it because I've lost plays, you know, in 109 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,920 bad fashion before, so I'll take the gifts sometimes. But 110 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,040 people are looking saying, hey, Detroit had to struggle with 111 00:05:55,199 --> 00:05:56,920 the Giants and had to go to overtime. So I 112 00:05:56,959 --> 00:05:59,959 think that's why you saw the initial tick go from 113 00:06:00,079 --> 00:06:02,600 three to two and a half. Now, with that said, 114 00:06:03,079 --> 00:06:06,199 I'm gonna bash myself for being an idiot. I was 115 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,720 so locked into the team total on Detroit last week 116 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,040 that you know, I saw it, but I ignored it. 117 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,920 That was as big of a sandwich game as you 118 00:06:16,959 --> 00:06:19,639 could have for the Lions last week. Think about it. 119 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: You're the. 120 00:06:22,439 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 5: I know, but I was locked in on that. Oh 121 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,439 the over on the team total with Detroit, and I 122 00:06:27,519 --> 00:06:31,879 felt because they played so badly on Sunday Night that 123 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,720 they wouldn't lay an egg. But think about it, Sunday 124 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:40,560 night football against the defending champs, Thursday, Thanksgiving Day against 125 00:06:40,639 --> 00:06:45,199 green Bay, who embarrassed Dan Campbell on Opening Day. If 126 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,360 you remember they to the final score doesn't tell the 127 00:06:49,439 --> 00:06:52,600 story of that game. Detroit was never in that game 128 00:06:52,639 --> 00:06:56,639 against green Bay. And if you remember all the knee 129 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,360 jerk reactions after that game because Detroit could not move 130 00:07:00,439 --> 00:07:02,279 the football, Yeah, I remember their. 131 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 4: Phony, they're done. 132 00:07:03,079 --> 00:07:07,439 Speaker 3: They lost their offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, this team sign Yeah. 133 00:07:07,399 --> 00:07:09,759 Speaker 5: And what did Dan Campbell do? And that's why I 134 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,800 you know, I've locked into team totals on Campbell because 135 00:07:13,839 --> 00:07:16,839 when he gets embarrassed, he's the bully on the block. 136 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,680 He has to go out and you know, and prove 137 00:07:19,759 --> 00:07:22,480 his worth and what he do. He ran the score 138 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,079 up on the Bears the following week against his former 139 00:07:27,439 --> 00:07:31,279 offensive coordinator. He was throwing the football in the fourth 140 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,600 quarter with a monster lead, put fifty two on the board. 141 00:07:34,879 --> 00:07:37,759 That's why, you know, I picked these spots. You've got 142 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,000 to understand coaches, and you know, shout out to one 143 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,399 of our listeners, Kelly. If somebody a comments section, I 144 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,199 love all of you guys, but my god, you don't 145 00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:50,759 like money. Somebody called me out for giving winners on 146 00:07:50,879 --> 00:07:55,120 team totals, like, oh, some totals. I don't want to 147 00:07:55,879 --> 00:07:56,959 I don't I don't want to. 148 00:07:56,959 --> 00:08:00,519 Speaker 2: Hear about anything that anybody cares about betting. You have 149 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,519 to remember five years ago we were all betting Russian 150 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,600 table tennis and Mexican soccer matches that were probably fixed. 151 00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 5: Give me a break, Kelly, I had you betting WNBA 152 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:13,160 props this summer. 153 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: For fact you did, Marco. 154 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 5: Take money where it's at. But as far as this 155 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,800 game goes, I am gonna live by the process. And 156 00:08:25,839 --> 00:08:28,680 the process is If Detroit was in a sandwich spot 157 00:08:28,759 --> 00:08:32,080 last week, that means they were looking for this one. 158 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,720 I'm gonna take Detroit in revenge. I think Dan Campbell 159 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,039 is going to put the pedal to the medal the 160 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,039 whole way here. Reason I'm not jumping up and down 161 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,639 for a team total here is because Green Bay does 162 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,639 have a good defense. And you know there is that 163 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,279 elephant in the room. We all know that Detroit and 164 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,679 I don't have to remind Kelly of a particular Thanksgiving Day, 165 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:58,200 but they have laid some major eggs on Thanksgiving. 166 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 2: So glad that I don't have to touch a Thanksgiving 167 00:09:00,519 --> 00:09:01,679 game this year for survivor. 168 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: Maybe my family will not hate me this year. 169 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,279 Speaker 5: So go ahead for me. I like Detroit in this one. 170 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: All right, guys, we have a Thanksgiving promo here at 171 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,799 wager talk dot com. I want to let everybody know 172 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,960 about John Hogland. 173 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: Where are you there? 174 00:09:20,159 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 2: He is? 175 00:09:21,279 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 1: We got a fill in producer today. 176 00:09:22,519 --> 00:09:24,919 Speaker 2: Dan Alexander is traveling, and I think John Hoaglin's a 177 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:30,120 little bit mad about that Bears beat down. Still Thanksgiving 178 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,200 special seven days for sixty seven dollars? Are you guys 179 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,240 doing that weird kid thing here? What happened to the 180 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:36,960 sixty nine dollars? 181 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: Anyway? Right now? 182 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: Through Sunday at midnight, you can secure seven full days 183 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,480 every single play from your favorite handicapper across all sports. 184 00:09:45,519 --> 00:09:50,480 That's college football, NFL, NHL, college basketball, NBA, and more. 185 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,039 That includes any of their five percent best bets normally 186 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,960 priced at thirty five dollars individually. 187 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,519 Speaker 1: So at less than ten dollars per day. 188 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,159 Speaker 2: You guys want to jump on that seven days or 189 00:10:00,759 --> 00:10:02,480 sixty seven dollars, you. 190 00:10:02,399 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: Guys just me. I get it, Yeah, I get it. 191 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,559 I get the kid thing. And what are you gonna do? 192 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 2: I don't understand it, but we're gonna we're gonna lean 193 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,759 into that. I got the Odds Logic screen back open. 194 00:10:12,759 --> 00:10:15,159 We're gonna go right back to these things giving games 195 00:10:15,279 --> 00:10:19,159 Kansas City. Marco is Wow, this is interesting. There's a 196 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,320 lot of three starting to populate on the Odds Logic screen. Yes, 197 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,080 Juice minus one sixteen, at super Book minus one fifteen, 198 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,240 at Circa minus one eighteen, at some prominent books. They're 199 00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:34,080 not here in the United States total fifty two. This 200 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,519 is interesting, Marco, because I was on the Dallas Cowboys. 201 00:10:37,519 --> 00:10:40,519 They were my barking dog on Sunday and as I said, 202 00:10:40,519 --> 00:10:43,399 fade my best bets Kansas City got the win, but 203 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,799 not the cover for me. But Dallas man twenty one nothing. 204 00:10:47,799 --> 00:10:49,639 I said, turn this garbage off. I'm gonna go to 205 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,519 the beach or go do something else with my Sunday. 206 00:10:51,759 --> 00:10:54,639 And next thing I know, here come the Cowboys. Was 207 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,879 that more of the Cowboys kind of getting their offense 208 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,080 going dack not making mistakes or was that more of 209 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,240 the Eagles just letting that game get away from them, 210 00:11:04,279 --> 00:11:06,679 because the Eagles in the first half was a completely 211 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:07,679 different team in the second. 212 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's a mirror image of the first game 213 00:11:12,159 --> 00:11:14,840 when when Philadelphia and Dallas played, if you remember that 214 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,600 was the opening game of the season. Both teams went 215 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,240 up and down the field. It was twenty one to 216 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,960 twenty at halftime, and I was holding the I think 217 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,200 it was like over forty seven and a half or something. 218 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,399 I said, oh wow, I'm good here. And then there 219 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,960 was only three points scored in the second half. I 220 00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,159 blamed the Philadelphia Eagles. Okay, when you've got a twenty 221 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,759 one nothing lead in a game, how in the hell 222 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,679 do you only run the football eighteen times for the 223 00:11:40,799 --> 00:11:45,240 entire game and your running back is sheche Kwan Bok 224 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,039 League what's wrong with you? 225 00:11:47,039 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: You know? 226 00:11:47,399 --> 00:11:49,759 Speaker 5: And this has been a problem that drives me nuts 227 00:11:49,799 --> 00:11:53,279 with Philadelphia, and I'm sure it drives you know, our 228 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,120 regular producer Dan nuts too with some of the decisions 229 00:11:56,159 --> 00:11:59,720 that this coaching staff makes. But here's the thing, Kelly, 230 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,679 and it's funny that we've got this game on Thanksgiving 231 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,960 because the gambling gods took one away from you with 232 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,240 Kansas City that you really deserve to win. That team 233 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:13,360 dominated four hundred and ninety four the two hundred and 234 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,399 fifty five yardage against Indianapolis, yet had to go to 235 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,879 overtime to win by three. And then the Cowboys come 236 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:25,159 the other direction from down twenty one. So the gambling 237 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,240 gods giveth, then they taketh, and they all should balance out. 238 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,440 But I'm looking at this one and here's the difference 239 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:35,080 for me. Everybody is now starting to jump on the 240 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,960 Dallas bandwagon. Why because oh, they made a trade, it's 241 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,000 a trade deadline. They got quinnin Williams. It's turned a 242 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,080 defense around. Look what they've done the last two weeks. 243 00:12:47,639 --> 00:12:52,200 Stop people. Two weeks ago they played the Raiders. The 244 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:58,679 Raiders the worst offense in football. Okay, the Browns embarrassed 245 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:02,200 them on Sunday. They couldn't do anything against the Browns. 246 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:07,679 So stop with the Dallas defense. Last week Philadelphia twenty 247 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,399 one quick points and you don't run the football anymore? 248 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,879 What's wrong with you? Okay, Kansas City is going to 249 00:13:15,039 --> 00:13:20,720 expose the defense. It's not fixed. Yes, Dallas's offense is good, 250 00:13:20,759 --> 00:13:23,559 but guess what they're going against. The best defense they 251 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:30,559 faced all year, this Kansas City defense. They've last six games, 252 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,240 They've held five of the six opponents to twenty two 253 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,279 or fewer points. Only one opponent is top one hundred yards. 254 00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:41,039 And if you become one dimensional, and I know Pickens 255 00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:44,639 is having a great year with Dallas. Yeah, Pittsburgh got 256 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,600 the short end of that trade, but you know if 257 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,960 they got to go one dimensional, Dak's gonna fill the 258 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,559 pressure with that pass rush. I'm taking Kansas City either 259 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:57,840 four and two in their last six games. The only 260 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,799 two games they lost was the Buffalo and Denver, still 261 00:14:02,279 --> 00:14:05,159 two good teams, and they were both by seven points 262 00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:07,960 or less. I'll take Kansas City, and I think this 263 00:14:08,039 --> 00:14:09,600 is going to be a high scoring game. I got 264 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,480 KC thirty one twenty four. 265 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,399 Speaker 2: Marco, I guess I have questions, where's that scoring going 266 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,120 to come from from Kansas City. I'm gonna let VR 267 00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:21,919 answer that one because I head to you know, initial 268 00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:24,000 thought process here fifty two and a half. 269 00:14:24,039 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: I thought, wow, that is that is high. 270 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 2: For a Kansas City team that just consistently goes under 271 00:14:29,399 --> 00:14:32,039 their total. If you guys watch opening line report yesterday, 272 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,240 Teddy made me bust out this guy and said, if 273 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,519 you like the over, bet it now. It's now a 274 00:14:36,519 --> 00:14:39,480 point and a half higher a VR, are we too 275 00:14:39,559 --> 00:14:41,399 late to bet the over? And b do you agree 276 00:14:41,399 --> 00:14:43,960 with Marco that this is the defense to get the 277 00:14:44,039 --> 00:14:45,679 Kansas City offense going. 278 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,399 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, you're definitely not getting the best of it 279 00:14:48,679 --> 00:14:51,000 as if you would have bet a little earlier on 280 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,240 the over, because the look ahead was forty nine, you're 281 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:56,000 now looking at fifty two, so obviously some of the 282 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,840 value has been extracted. But as you get up over 283 00:14:58,879 --> 00:15:02,279 those fifties, again, the higher the scoring, the more the variants. 284 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 4: The lower the scoring, the lower the variants. 285 00:15:04,519 --> 00:15:07,399 Speaker 3: So that's why I don't get as concerned once those 286 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,600 totals go above fifty, like fifty four, fifty five, fifty 287 00:15:10,639 --> 00:15:13,159 six to fifty seven, not a big difference between a 288 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,639 point point and a half compared to when you're in 289 00:15:15,679 --> 00:15:18,320 the thirties. Going from you know, thirty six and a 290 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:22,039 half to a thirty eight, that's a big difference. But 291 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,360 I would have preferred to debt at earlier, and I've 292 00:15:24,399 --> 00:15:26,399 mean the same way over. In fact, I had this 293 00:15:27,039 --> 00:15:29,480 my total set at fifty, so I kind of. 294 00:15:29,919 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 4: It wasn't enough of an edge from the opener to 295 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,559 get involved. But I was hoping. 296 00:15:33,279 --> 00:15:36,679 Speaker 3: Maybe with that Kansas City defense, they dropped that total 297 00:15:36,759 --> 00:15:38,759 some steam under and I could come in on the 298 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,799 over had a better number, But that didn't happen. They 299 00:15:41,799 --> 00:15:44,279 saw what Marco saw that they do expect some points. 300 00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:47,919 And the reason is the Dallas defense. There's only one 301 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,759 team that's worst efficiency wise, and that's what the twenty 302 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,559 sixth toughest schedule, So Dallas has had only what six 303 00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:59,360 teams have had an easier schedule than Dallas, so they've 304 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,559 had a very schedule, and yet only one team has 305 00:16:02,559 --> 00:16:06,399 been worse defensively. So even though Kansas City is barely 306 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,360 in the top ten offensively, which is pretty impressive, when 307 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,360 you have the number two defense and your offense is 308 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,000 still number ten, they're gonna have an easier go of 309 00:16:14,039 --> 00:16:15,840 it this week. So I do think Kansas City is 310 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,799 gonna have some success offensively. On the flip side, where's 311 00:16:19,919 --> 00:16:22,399 Dallas going to get their success? Because again, they may 312 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,279 be a top ten offense, in fact, I have them 313 00:16:25,399 --> 00:16:28,519 sixth inefficiency, but they're. 314 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 4: Going up against a number two. 315 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:34,399 Speaker 3: And with Kansas City they had a top fifteen strength 316 00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:37,960 of schedule, So this defense is legit, like they've done 317 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,519 it with a tougher strength of schedule or with the 318 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,919 Dallas Sure the offenses is top ten, but they've done 319 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,440 it with a really easy strength of schedule. Let's see 320 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,559 how they perform against the number two. We'll find out 321 00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:52,639 on Thursday. So everything I see on paper leans to 322 00:16:52,679 --> 00:16:56,600 the Kansas City side except the line move that opener 323 00:16:56,639 --> 00:16:59,320 from three and a half down to three. Yes, the 324 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,360 three is on the Kansas City side, so you're getting 325 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,440 three at a discount on Dallas. But I do have 326 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,519 to pay attention to that it didn't move in the 327 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:10,240 other direction. Now, some of that has to do with 328 00:17:10,279 --> 00:17:12,920 the recency bias that you know, how Dallas look, They're 329 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,880 coming off back to back wins. They just beat Philadelphia, 330 00:17:17,799 --> 00:17:20,079 So again, is that the reason for it? 331 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 4: And when we look at Case. Yeah, they beat a 332 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:22,759 big win. 333 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 3: For them last week Indianapolis, but they came in limping 334 00:17:25,759 --> 00:17:28,279 having lost, you know, two of three. The thing with 335 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,000 Case is this, when they win, they win with margin. 336 00:17:32,039 --> 00:17:35,200 This year's been different other than that last week with Indianapolis. 337 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,440 If you check their games out, when they win, they 338 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,920 win with margin. That wasn't the case last year. When 339 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,759 they lose, though, they don't lose by margin, which tells 340 00:17:44,759 --> 00:17:46,920 you that they've had a lot of bad luck. This 341 00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:50,559 is a much better team than the record reflects even 342 00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,000 That's why power rating wise, I have a six and 343 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:58,039 five team in my top five power ratings because of that. 344 00:17:58,279 --> 00:18:00,599 Speaker 4: So I like Kansas City. I agree with Marco. 345 00:18:00,839 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 3: I haven't gotten the window, but right now it's favorite 346 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,240 or pass for me as well. I also agree with 347 00:18:06,279 --> 00:18:08,960 that over just not sure I could get the window 348 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:10,480 based on that line movement. 349 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: All right, speaking of line move and it's completely predicated 350 00:18:14,279 --> 00:18:18,440 on a guy named Joe Burrow Baltimore. Pretty much seven 351 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:23,200 across the board, there is one very sharp we'll call 352 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,440 it prominent book not in the United State. 353 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 1: It's got to be careful now here on the way. 354 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,000 You're talking YouTube channel, because you get in trouble for 355 00:18:29,039 --> 00:18:29,599 that kind of thing. 356 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 2: But they are at six and a half minus one thirteen, 357 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,359 So very interesting whenever we see stuff like that pop 358 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,920 up VR because kind of makes your spider senses go 359 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:42,640 off and go, hmm, are they baiting everybody in? Come 360 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,480 on in, guys, the water is warm. You want to 361 00:18:45,519 --> 00:18:47,759 bet the Ravens under a touchdown? 362 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:49,039 Speaker 4: Listen. 363 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 3: They make it easier for us because we have a 364 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,759 look ahead to compare. So we know that the look 365 00:18:55,759 --> 00:18:58,599 ahead was eleven and a half. That was the situation 366 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,440 now was going to play, and the official the first 367 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,759 adjustment was back down the six and a half. So 368 00:19:05,319 --> 00:19:10,519 the drop off they concluded was worth five points. That 369 00:19:10,519 --> 00:19:13,880 that's the drop off to the number one guy moving 370 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:14,799 up now to Burrow. 371 00:19:15,079 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 4: Five point is the is the increase? I don't think so. 372 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,880 Speaker 3: Here's why. Even though you look at Flacco career wise, 373 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,440 or more important, look over his last ten starts, his 374 00:19:27,759 --> 00:19:31,519 QBR was about a seventy point six. When you look 375 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,160 in twenty twenty five, which matters this year, it's over ninety. 376 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,200 So his QBR is above a ninety. He's playing good. 377 00:19:41,319 --> 00:19:45,240 It's not like he hasn't played well, and they're just 378 00:19:45,279 --> 00:19:46,480 not winning football games. 379 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:50,079 Speaker 4: That's that's the situation. When you look at Cincinnati and. 380 00:19:50,039 --> 00:19:53,039 Speaker 3: They're not even covering games, and now all of a sudden, 381 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,480 just because that starting quarterbacks coming in. I get Burrow's 382 00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,160 the stud, but now you're getting less points like that. 383 00:20:01,079 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 4: If you would have got out. 384 00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:06,200 Speaker 3: Ahead and got the look ahead, then yeah, great bet. 385 00:20:06,519 --> 00:20:10,599 But now that's been factored in that we know the information, 386 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:14,480 we know he's playing. The price has been adjusted for 387 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,799 him playing, and I think it's been over adjusted. I 388 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,839 really do. I like the Baltimore side. I like how 389 00:20:21,839 --> 00:20:24,839 they've been playing. I like their coming in winning games 390 00:20:24,839 --> 00:20:28,000 and not outperforming the betting market. They were two touchdown 391 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,160 favorites only won by field goal the week before. They 392 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,039 were eight point favorites, only won that game by seven. Like, 393 00:20:33,079 --> 00:20:36,440 they're not covering, but they're winning five straight wins. They're 394 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,200 playing at home where we know they have one of 395 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,759 the strongest home field advantages close to two points, which is. 396 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,039 Speaker 4: A lot in the NFL. 397 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,279 Speaker 3: And even with all their problems they had at the 398 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:52,839 quarterback situation, they're still a top ten offense, top ten defense, 399 00:20:53,319 --> 00:20:56,559 and they've had a top ten strength of schedule. 400 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,839 Speaker 4: So this Baltimore team another six and five. 401 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 3: That's legit and top ten in my power ratings, where 402 00:21:04,799 --> 00:21:09,400 Cincinnati I only have five teams that Cincinnati. 403 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 4: Would be favored over on a neutral field. 404 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,519 Speaker 3: So add all that in, add the Burrow, and I 405 00:21:14,559 --> 00:21:17,640 think that gives you Baltimore at discount. Again, haven't gotten 406 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,640 to the window, but I do like the Baltimore sign. 407 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:25,759 Almost wish this was seven and a half. Kel Yeah, yeah, 408 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,000 I could just green Bay Baltimore and tease it. 409 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 4: I want to break my own rules, but I can't 410 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,319 do it. I'll be forced to lay this because you 411 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,240 can eve like six and a half right now? Minus 412 00:21:35,319 --> 00:21:37,200 one twenty not a bad bet? 413 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 2: All right, Marco, do you think this is a Bilo 414 00:21:40,319 --> 00:21:43,599 spot on the Ravens. I'll call you our AFC North expert. 415 00:21:44,839 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 5: Well, great segue. Remember a month ago, Kelly, right here 416 00:21:49,759 --> 00:21:54,240 on bed on it, I said, everybody take the two 417 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:59,920 and five Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North. Well, 418 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,240 fast forward a month, guys, take a look at the standings. 419 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,640 Who's in first place in the AFC North. Yeah, it's 420 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:11,759 the Baltimore Ravens. They've run off five straight wins, and honestly, 421 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,960 you know people are. One of the reasons why they're 422 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,440 so hept up here on Cincinnati is, Yeah, the Joe 423 00:22:18,519 --> 00:22:21,559 Burrow factor coming back. But Baltimore has been winning but 424 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,279 not blowing people out. They've been just doing what they 425 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,480 need to do. Now you're gonna see in the next 426 00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:32,880 three weeks what Baltimore is all about. Because Baltimore can 427 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:37,759 put a hammer lock on the AFC North in the 428 00:22:37,799 --> 00:22:41,200 next three weeks. Why because they play Cincinnati this week, 429 00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:45,720 Pittsburgh next week, and Cincinnati the week after. It could 430 00:22:45,759 --> 00:22:50,319 be all over in three weeks and Baltimore have the 431 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,119 AFC North locked up. I am looking at Baltimore in 432 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,240 this game. Yeah, Joe Burrow's coming back, but let's be realistic. Okay, 433 00:22:58,279 --> 00:23:02,000 he's playing on a short week. He hasn't played since 434 00:23:02,079 --> 00:23:07,079 Week two. Is he ready to trade points with Lamar Jackson? 435 00:23:07,319 --> 00:23:10,160 Because one thing about it is no matter who's behind 436 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,640 center for the Bengals, they still got the same defense 437 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:19,119 on the field, and that defense is absolutely trash. They 438 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,400 haven't been able to stop anybody last nine games. Seven 439 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,640 of the nine games they've allowed twenty eight or more points. 440 00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:30,319 Guess what the two games they didn't allow twenty eight points. 441 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:34,519 They allowed twenty six and twenty seven. They cannot stop anybody. 442 00:23:34,559 --> 00:23:37,640 This will be a breakout game for Lamar Jackson. I 443 00:23:37,759 --> 00:23:41,960 like Baltimore. You know what else I like? Sorry, guys, 444 00:23:42,039 --> 00:23:45,640 I'm bringing you a team total. I'm all over Baltimore 445 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,519 over thirty and a half because they're gonna have to 446 00:23:48,559 --> 00:23:52,839 score points because Joe Burrow's back and he's gonna score points, 447 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,880 which will keep them proving Baltimore didn't have to score 448 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,559 a lot of points because they were playing bad teams. 449 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,680 They were never threatened. But if Joe Borow does score 450 00:24:03,759 --> 00:24:07,039 some points with the Bengals, that's going to force Baltimore 451 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,519 to answer and keep answering. How they don't go over 452 00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:13,200 thirty and a half. I don't know. Unless bad weather 453 00:24:13,279 --> 00:24:16,440 breaks out Thursday night in Baltimore. That's the only thing 454 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,720 that stops this one. I'm taking Baltimore team total over 455 00:24:19,839 --> 00:24:20,920 Kelly Well. 456 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 2: That'll make Aeron Epstein happy because she is gonna be 457 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,559 there freezing her tail off at the game. Hopefully the 458 00:24:25,599 --> 00:24:27,960 weather does subside. I think it's gonna be a pretty 459 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,400 good game, and again, I wish that it would hit 460 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:31,680 seven and a half so that I can tease it, 461 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,279 but I don't think we're gonna get that lucky Marco. 462 00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:35,799 Speaker 1: I mentioned how well you know. 463 00:24:35,799 --> 00:24:38,759 Speaker 2: The AFC North, but let's see how well you know 464 00:24:38,839 --> 00:24:44,400 the NFC North. Because the Chicago Bears are a seven 465 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,440 point underdog as it stands right now, there is one 466 00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:51,599 six and a half down here and little Old Florida 467 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,160 the hard Rock. So either the delay is on the 468 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:59,200 odds logic screen or maybe just maybe they're baiting somebody. 469 00:24:58,799 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: To come on in and bet the eagle. 470 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 2: I'm not sure which, because I've been dead wrong about 471 00:25:02,759 --> 00:25:06,640 the Chicago Bears team several times this year, and frankly, 472 00:25:06,839 --> 00:25:08,759 I don't want to keep being wrong. So tell me 473 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,720 how not fraudulent the Chicago Bears are. 474 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, you were right. They are fraudulent. Okay, they're 475 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,000 eight and one the last nine games. But before you 476 00:25:19,039 --> 00:25:22,480 start printing those playoff tickets, let's just pump the brakes 477 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,319 because they only beat one team, one team in that 478 00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:32,799 nine game stretch that had a winning record in that 479 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,200 one team is the fraudulent Pittsburgh Steelers. Okay, that's the 480 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,319 only team they beat, and they were life and death 481 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,279 to do it thirty one to twenty eight. Do you 482 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,519 want to know what the combined record, including the Steelers 483 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:50,400 record is in their eight wins, twenty seven and sixty one. 484 00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:54,160 Chew on that a little bit. Twenty seven and sixty 485 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,599 one is the combined record of the eight teams they 486 00:25:57,599 --> 00:26:00,799 have beat during this streak. The Bears defense is not 487 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:03,440 good and it's going to be exposed by a Philadelphia 488 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,759 offense that should be able to get their running game going. 489 00:26:07,839 --> 00:26:11,839 I was just livid that they weren't running the football 490 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,759 last week. With a twenty one to nothing lead, Barkley 491 00:26:14,799 --> 00:26:18,559 should have a breakout game. And here's the problem. Chicago 492 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,400 can't stop a traditional running game. Okay, and the Steelers 493 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,960 went wild on the ground against them last week, but 494 00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:28,920 a turnover hurt them in that game, a key turnover. 495 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:34,160 The situation with Philadelphia is they're a dual monster on 496 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,640 the ground because you got to worry about the traditional 497 00:26:36,759 --> 00:26:39,079 running game with Barkley, you got to worry about that 498 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:44,440 passing game downfield with AJ Smith and company. But you 499 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,000 also got to worry about Jalen Hurts taking off with 500 00:26:48,039 --> 00:26:52,119 the football. I don't see the Bear stopping Philadelphia. I 501 00:26:52,279 --> 00:26:54,400 like Philadelphia in this one. And then you want to 502 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:59,079 talk difference in defense. Philadelphia has held five straight opponents 503 00:26:59,319 --> 00:27:02,599 to twenty four or less, and that's going to be 504 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,119 bad news for Caleb Williams if he's got to try 505 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,319 to win this game through the air, if they don't 506 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,720 get balance attack, and if you look at it against 507 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,039 crap teams. I gave you the record of what they've 508 00:27:15,079 --> 00:27:19,559 been playing last three games. Caleb Williams, where everybody's singing 509 00:27:19,599 --> 00:27:24,079 his praises, He's only completed fifty five of one hundred 510 00:27:24,079 --> 00:27:26,960 and three passes. That's not a good percentage for an 511 00:27:27,039 --> 00:27:30,559 NFL quarterback. I see him having to force the issue 512 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,640 coming from behind and that's going to create a turnover 513 00:27:33,799 --> 00:27:38,720 or two by interception. I'll take Philadelphia thirty four to twenty. 514 00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:40,440 I'm laying it with Philly. 515 00:27:40,519 --> 00:27:42,599 Speaker 2: All right, Yard, do you agree with Marco? Is this 516 00:27:42,759 --> 00:27:46,119 a by low spot on Philly after choking things away 517 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:47,720 there in Dallas on Sunday? 518 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it really is. 519 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 3: Not only is there the recency bias against the Philadelphia 520 00:27:53,799 --> 00:27:58,960 side off that loss, but Chicago's pony. We talk about 521 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,160 the power ratings in college football, how you're able to 522 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:05,559 take advantage and even though we don't have ratings from 523 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,839 you know, coaches, poll or journalists or anything like that 524 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:11,640 to take advantage of the narrative. 525 00:28:12,799 --> 00:28:14,799 Speaker 4: We still have the records, and when you look at. 526 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 3: Chicago, they're an eight and three team, just like Philadelphia. 527 00:28:18,279 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 4: But here's the difference. 528 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 3: With Philadelphia power rating wise, only five teams would be 529 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,920 favored over them on neutral field base on my power rating, 530 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,359 probably four would be favored over Philadelphia, so they're top 531 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:34,960 five power rating. Chicago they're not even in my top twenty. 532 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,480 They're outside the top twenty. So there may be ten 533 00:28:38,559 --> 00:28:43,640 teams that Chicago should be favored over on a neutral field. Now, 534 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,480 obviously the job of the joke books is to balance 535 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,759 their risk so that they profit. It's not the predict outcomes. 536 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,160 And with the Chicago that's the situation where they're they're 537 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,440 winning football games, but it has to do with their 538 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:02,480 strength of schedule. They've had the thirtieth toughest strength of schedule. 539 00:29:02,759 --> 00:29:05,960 Only two teams had an easier go of it, and 540 00:29:06,079 --> 00:29:10,319 yet they don't have a top fifteen offense efficient efficiency wise, 541 00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:14,799 they don't even have a top twenty five defense. Defensively, 542 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,720 there's only five or six teams that are less efficient 543 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:20,200 than the Chicago Bears. 544 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 4: And like I said, offensively, there's middle of the pack. 545 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 3: Not in the top fifteen, they're like seventeenth. So this 546 00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:31,880 is a team that's been the beneficiary of an easy 547 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,519 strength of schedule. Only two have had an easier go 548 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:41,000 of it Philadelphia not so Lucky, the fourth toughest schedule 549 00:29:41,119 --> 00:29:43,920 in all of the NFL. And they've managed a top 550 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:48,240 ten offense and a top five defense. That's a legit team. 551 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,799 And now you're getting them at a touchdown, a discounted touchdown. 552 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,839 Even I could lay six and a half right now 553 00:29:55,119 --> 00:29:56,079 with Philadelphia. 554 00:29:56,839 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 4: I love the Eagles here. Money line them to death. 555 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,799 That's the play anything less than. 556 00:30:02,759 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 3: Like three three point fifty where they just got to 557 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,200 win this game, you know, three out of four times 558 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,279 to break even. Because they win this game four out 559 00:30:09,279 --> 00:30:10,960 of five times. You know, this is a minus four 560 00:30:11,079 --> 00:30:13,599 hundred money line is where they should be, meaning they 561 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,240 don't lose the game out right at home. Just look 562 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,119 at the splits. So I like the Eagles here. I 563 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,759 agree with Marco having gotten to the window. Need to 564 00:30:21,759 --> 00:30:25,640 see how the market reacts to my pick. I respect it, 565 00:30:26,519 --> 00:30:27,079 so we'll see. 566 00:30:27,119 --> 00:30:30,319 Speaker 4: But I do like Philadelphia as well, all right. 567 00:30:30,079 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 2: I just wanted to wish everybody a very happy Thanksgiving. 568 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,759 I hope you guys enjoy the day with your family, 569 00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:37,720 and we always appreciate you hanging out with us here 570 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,720 on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, especially here on bet 571 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:42,000 on It. 572 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow Wednesday afternoon. 573 00:30:44,759 --> 00:30:47,319 Speaker 2: Per usual, we're going to do our full college football 574 00:30:47,359 --> 00:30:52,079 slate as well as Sunday and Monday NFL. Thank you 575 00:30:52,119 --> 00:30:53,799 to Marco, thank you to VR, and thank you to 576 00:30:53,839 --> 00:30:56,599 all of you guys at home. Happy Thanksgiving.