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Speaker 1: It's been a long, long, interesting road travel, that's for sure.

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But our patience is definitely paying off here now and

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it's it's it is a nice feeling. So now you

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know our concern is when do we sell and how

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much do we sell?

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Terry Lets. Well, what can

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you say about these metal markets right now as we speak? Well,

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gold thirty five seven and change silver forty one thirty eight.

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Silver hasn't been this high? Well, gold is trading in

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a record, but silver has not been this high since

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twenty eleven. What a year that was. And with us

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now is David Earthly. Of course you'll find him at

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Junior Minor Junkie dot com. That's Junior m I N

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E R Junkie j U n K Y not j

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U n K I E. Which is something else all together, David.

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I mean I saw you like you were dancing on

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your desk when we first started talking here. What can

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you say about this market that hasn't already been said.

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Speaker 1: Well, I stopped. I stopped dancing on desk quite quick,

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quite a while ago. But in my mind, I'm dancing

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on my desk. Yes, it's it's happy times for us

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here in the sector. For that, we've been waiting for

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these happy times for quite a while. I mean last

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year we had the gold price go up twenty seven percent,

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and then in the end the miners were only up

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thirteen percent, providing just a half a percent leverage. So

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now we've got the gold stocks catching up to the

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gold price. We had the gold price hit an all

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time high a thirty five hundred back in April, and

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as we speak right here, we got gold futures banging

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on the thirty six to fifty door here. So the

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gold price had gone sideways throughout the summer while the

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gold stocks were catching up big time. Because in that

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time we had the miners produce outstanding free cash flow

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for two consecutive quarters. When they when they announced blowout

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earnings and Q one and Q two that was happening

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while the gold price was going sideways. And also their

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costs have pretty much remained in place while the gold

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price has gone through the ceiling here, So the gold

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stocks are catching up to the gold price. And now

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the juniors. Last week, a lot of these lagging juniors

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are exploding out of these huge multi year bases and

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they're catching up with the majors. And at the same time,

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we had the silver price at fourteen year highs, trading

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over forty dollars for the first time in fourteen years.

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But and now the I think December December silver is

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over forty two dollars right now as we speak, and

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and the next resistance is like fifty bucks. So yeah,

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it's happy times here in the sector.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, so if you were a subscriber, did Junior

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mine a junkie and let's just say, you know somehow

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you discovered it two years ago, where would your portfolio

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be right now?

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Speaker 1: Your portfolio would be about one hundred and thirty five

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percent higher, while the while the GDXJ is probably about

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eighty percent at higher. So, because what happens when these

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bull markets get going in the sector is the juniors

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begin to outperform the miners in a big way because

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and before then we had the juniors underperforming the miners

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while the miners were underperforming goals. So the past few

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years have been kind of sparse as far as profits

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were concerned, but they were a great time to accumulate

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positions in these companies with huge upside potential once the

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conditions are in place like right now for them to

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go higher. So a lot of patiences is required while

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you have all this time to accumulate these companies. And

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that's what my subscribers and I have been doing over

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the past couple of years. And this year that patience

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and that due diligence is paying off in spades.

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Speaker 3: So is it too late? Have you missed the party?

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Didn't He didn't?

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean as far as as far as getting

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into the sector at lower risk prices, it's it's later

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than it was before. Absolutely, But this this up leg

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is getting stretched and we're due for an interim peak.

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We might even hit it, might have even hit it

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today as far as the GDX and GDXJ is concerned.

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The GDX touched got close to its all time high

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this morning at sixty six, that's not adjusted for not

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adjusted for dividends. But the last time but when it

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did hit that sixty six was back in twenty eleven

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when the gold price was attempting to run to two

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thousand dollars announce I remember. Yeah, So as far as

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an interim peak is concerned, we're either added interim peak

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or close. So there is some consolidation up ahead, but

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as far as the big picture is concerned, we still

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have a long way to go, I believe. And also

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if you take a look at the gold price that's

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getting stretched also, but the golds dice, you're rarely disabled

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your internet connection in computer for suspicious activity for I.

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Speaker 3: Don't know what the hell that was. Sorry about that,

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I'm just making it's okay, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: That's okay. So the gold price is breaking out of

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this five month symmetrical triangle now and it's target the

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symmetrical triangle breakout is like thirty eight fifty to four thousand,

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so and I wouldn't be surprised if that's hit pretty

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quickly because momentum based traders have come into this market

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at the beginning of September year while the stock market

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is rolling over, they take a look at the S

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and P five hundred rolling over, and if you look

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deep into the s and P five hundred, what's the

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what's the number one gainer in the s and P.

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It's Newmont, It's mol right, and it's the only gold

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stock in the S and P five hundred, and it's

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doubled its price stock price is doubled. So you're so

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you know, imagine you're you're a fund manager, you're coming

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back from vacation and you see this and if you

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if you you don't have as much gold exposure as

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you like, as you'd like, then you're buying Newmont and

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you're buying and you're buying some majors. Even though the

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price is a bit stretched. It's the gold stocks are

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still under value bases the gold price because the stock

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market is just now beginning, I believe, is the market

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is just now beginning to price in a solid floor

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three thousand dollars gold. And these companies are producing gold.

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The average all in sustaining cost of producing and now

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it's of gold now is between sixteen hundred and sixteen

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hundred and fifty dollars. That's huge margins. And yeah, and

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Numont just free cash flow alone. In Q one, Neumont

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produced a one point five billion in free cash flow,

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and then Q two one point seven billion. I mean

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that's a run rate, a full year run rate of

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over six you know, six and a half billion dollars

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of free cash flow. So you take a look at that,

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and you take a look at at at the other

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sectors in the S and P five hundred, you know

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their price to perfection, and they've already gone on these

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huge runs sold. The gold stocks still have some catching

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up to do, even though we're due for for some

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some healthy profit taking here.

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Speaker 3: So m and a activity because while it's all Rosie

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for the for the new months and the barracks and

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the agniko the Agnikos of the world, but they're running

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out of gold here, they're producing it way faster than

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they could replace it. When does the scramble happen? And

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will they avoid the mistakes in the.

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Speaker 1: Past or yeah? Absolutely, I mean that's that's what's on

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on investors' minds now right. I Mean they're saying, Okay,

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you've done a great job showing up your balance sheet.

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You've got fantastic balance sheets. Now you're buying back shares,

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you know you're paying, you're paying healthy dividends. I mean

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when I got into this sector, you know, over twenty

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years ago, it was unheard of for a mining stock

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to may a dividend. And now they're paying healthy dividends.

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They've they've got strong balance sheets, unlike what they had

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at the top of the last ball market in twenty eleven.

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You know, they didn't really have you know, healthy balance sheets,

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and they ended up going out and buying buying low

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grade bulk ton ofjounces at top prices, thinking the gold

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price was going to continue to move higher forever. And

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I think they've they've learned from those mistakes and they

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are a lot more cautious and they've been proven to

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be so. But if you take a look at what

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the juniors are doing now, you know, we're coming up

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at these conferences here at Beaver Creek and then followed

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by the Denver Gold Forum here next week, and this

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is where this is where these guys get together and

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they talk about M and A and they need to

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replace these ounces now. So I wouldn't be surprised to

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see some high profile M and A announcements come out

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of these conferences. And you know, once it starts to happen,

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it's snowballs, and then I also would be surprised that

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you know that we we see an announcement of of

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of a junior being taken over by a major and

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then we get into a bidding more. That's what we

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really want to see. That'll really get the M and

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A juices flowing and it will get sector investors even

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more excited.

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Speaker 3: And there's so few high quality juniors out there that

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the silver, especially silver, you know, yeah, totally so, so

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when it does hit, it's going to hit big, and

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it's going to hit hard. Where do you want to

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be when this happens.

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Speaker 1: He's come off the board. You know, we we saw Gattos,

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We saw Silvercrest taken over by Cordeline, So you know,

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they understand that that that that primary silver projects, especially

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high grade primary silver projects are rare. So I think

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they're gonna they're gonna be going down the food chain

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and be taken over some of these some of these

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juniors that are de risking, these these projects that are

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yet to be in the finance stage. So I think

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that's that's in our future where where these majors start

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to go down the food chain, and they're going to

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take a chance and go in and buy them out a little, right,

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they're getting a lot higher.

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Speaker 3: So, uh, what about the fact that the US government

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is poised supposedly to put silver and copper and potash

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on the critical Minerals list. That seems to have been

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the spark, the catalyst that set off silver at this

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point further.

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Speaker 1: Right, and Saudi Arabia getting into silver as well. I mean,

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that's that was that was huge news.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we were ahead of them all, you and

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I David Right.

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Speaker 1: It's been a long, long, interesting road travel, that's for sure.

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But our patients is definitely paying off here now. And

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it's it's it's it is a nice feeling. So so

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now you know, our concern is when do we sell

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and how much do we sell? Right? So, I mean

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you have to have before you buy anything, you have

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to have a sell strategy. So and that's especially the

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case in these junior stocks because they're you know, they're

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like lit matches. They don't they they have these huge,

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huge runs, and it's always best to say take a

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little take a little money, take a little profit off

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the table, and you know, get your original investment out

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of it at some point it's it's easier to hold

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it for the long haul. So you know, depending on

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you know, depending on what your financial situation is, depending

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on the size of your portfolio. Everyone's got their own

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sell strategies, but you have to have a cell strategy

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in place because you don't want to you know, you

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don't want to end up having emotions, you know, run

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your you're buying or you're selling. You wanted to make

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informed decisions on buying and especially selling. You know, you

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have a target when am I going to take some profits?

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Because the ultimate goal when you get into a junior

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is for a takeover, right, I mean, that's the great

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thing about these things is you get into something you

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know it looks as you're holding it. The company's doing

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all the right things, raising money at the right time,

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keeping the share, keeping the shareccount low, putting out you know,

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positive economic studies, and it looks like the company, Wow,

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this is I've got a good one year. It looks

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like it's going to get taken out. Okay, at what

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point am I going to take out my original investment

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and hold the rest for a buyout? And then hopefully

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that buyout comes a lot farther down the road while

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the stock goes up on its own before it gets

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taken out of a higher premium.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, so the old saying you never go broke

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on Wall Street taking a profit, right.

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Speaker 1: Right, that's right. You know, bulls make bulls make money,

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Bears make money, but biggs get slaughtered, especially in this sector.

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If you if you're you know, I've learned, you know

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I've I've had so many profits that I that I

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that I've left on the table, but they were all

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they were all good learning experiences, right, I mean, what

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happened here? Why did I Why did I end up

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not taking more profit in this stock? This is why

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I'll make sure it doesn't happen again. You take all

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these life lessons in this second, you apply them to

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your cell strategy. It's because it's a it's a it's

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a it's an ongoing it's an ongoing lesson. You know,

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there's so many lessons that you learn in these You

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never know anything. Something always comes up to where wow,

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I didn't even think of that as far as a

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reason for a stock selling off or whatever. So you know,

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no matter how fantastic a project looks, anything could happen.

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So you want to have you want to have some

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you want to take a little bit of profit on

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the way, for sure.

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Speaker 3: How many times in your career here was a later

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career in your life, have you seen a stock that

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you thought was absolutely amazing, that it was, you were

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going to retire on it, and some reason unbeknownst to

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you but well known to the insiders, it blows up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't have enough fingers. I don't

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have enough fingers to count how many times that's happened,

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you know. So, and that's what draws us to this sector,

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right It's it's literally like the wild wild West, you know.

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You could you could pick a stock that you say

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to yourself, my god, this is the one, this is

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the one I should really load up on. And I

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learned a long time ago never put any more than

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five percent of your investment capital into one stock. Is

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Anything could happen. Anything could happen at any time, and

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it might not. It's usually not the fault of the

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management of the company. It could be the jurisdiction therein.

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You know, something happens with the government and they decide

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to do something in the mining sector that just takes

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you by surprise, and no matter how fantastic your project is,

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it's screwed because they change the law. So anything metal urgies,

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you know, some metal urgy out of the blue, could happen,

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you know anything, And I'm not a geologist, so it's

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it's it's behooved me to to find out, you know,

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to basically hone your cell strategy to where you're in

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a you're in a good place when we're when we're

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in a place right where in a place like we're

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at like right now, where we're seeing we're seeing all

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these profits coming into our portfolio rapidly. So you got

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to have that planted place because you don't, like I said,

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you don't want to have emotions make the decision for you.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so is it a good idea to sell half

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when you got one hundred percent run?

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Speaker 1: My strategy is, well, first of all, I don't get

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into any junior unless I see at least three times

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upside potential. So based on that, when a stock triples,

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that's when I take my original investment off the table,

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and I've got twenty positions in my junior minor junkie

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real money portfolio right now. That that my subscribers all

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also follow Four of them now have tripled, and we've

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taken our original investment. Out of four of them, there's

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two others that are close to doing the same and

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several others that are not far away. So once that happens,

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you know. And I also learned that I always take

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my profit completely out of the portfolio, right, I mean,

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I've got so much money invested in these things that

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I don't want to reinvest profit, so I take the

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profit out at the end of each year.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Well, that is some sage advice for those of

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you out there who haven't really experienced as many cycles

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as David and I have, and who think there's this

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sure thing, this miner that they're doing a deep sea

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mining in the Pacific and hoping to find Limuria, the

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continent of Limuria while they're at it, and nothing can

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possibly go wrong. But this is the riskiest business in

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the world, and like you said, perfectly honest management, it's

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not a lifestyle company, which you should always avoid. And

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all of a sudden and that's why diversify. Don't put

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it all there, David, how do we get your.

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Speaker 1: Publication, juniorminor Junkie dot com with a Y j U

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n k Y. That's my website, and I also write

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a column on Kitko. Comes out on Fridays every usually

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every usually every Friday, but in the summer I've been

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taking a lot of Fridays off. But you can find

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me at Kitko and you can find me on my

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website at Junior Minor Junkie dot com.

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Speaker 3: All right, great the links in the show notes of

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this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. But I

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really moved that over to substack. Got tired of the

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website grind. Substack does all that stuff for me. You

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can get virtually everything for free. If you want to

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give me money, I'll take it, but you don't have to.

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But there's some specials that you want to subscribe for

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00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:07,079
and questions comments kl at Carrie lets dot com. David,

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we'll talk to you again, hopefully in a month and

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more good news.

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Speaker 1: Thanks again for having me on carry look forward to

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speaking to you again.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network your

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solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network

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Speaker 1: Now more than ever