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Please show 30 00:01:28.280 --> 00:01:30.840 support for the show and tell them that the teamhouse 31 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:31.239 sent you. 32 00:01:32.079 --> 00:01:32.799 Thank you everyone. 33 00:01:34.760 --> 00:01:37.760 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 34 00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:41.359 I'm here with Mick Mulroy, Jonathan Hackett, Mark Polymaropolis, and 35 00:01:41.439 --> 00:01:44.439 myself two Marines verus two Greeks. 36 00:01:44.680 --> 00:01:45.000 Again. 37 00:01:45.840 --> 00:01:47.840 I think we're gonna try and keep that ratio going 38 00:01:47.920 --> 00:01:51.280 as much as we can. A lot happening, a lot 39 00:01:51.280 --> 00:01:54.640 of false starts too, with like the delegations going back 40 00:01:54.680 --> 00:01:58.439 to Pakistan to talk more about a peace plan or 41 00:01:58.480 --> 00:02:00.840 something like that. Doesn't seem like it's gonna happened. Last 42 00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:04.959 week we saw Jade Vance was supposed to go, then 43 00:02:04.959 --> 00:02:08.520 he didn't go, and then Jared Kushner and Steve wikoffer 44 00:02:08.560 --> 00:02:11.319 we're supposed to go, and I pulled him back as well. Uh, 45 00:02:11.360 --> 00:02:14.919 he wrote a truth social post about it. So we 46 00:02:14.960 --> 00:02:17.000 don't know where we're at, you know, obviously, I'm sure 47 00:02:17.080 --> 00:02:19.879 hopefully there's some backshanneling going on where we're figuring it out. 48 00:02:19.919 --> 00:02:22.719 The straight of her moves is essentially still the facto closed. 49 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:26.039 Some ships are getting out not anywhere near what the 50 00:02:26.439 --> 00:02:32.319 normal traffic would be. We started, you know, basically search, 51 00:02:32.719 --> 00:02:34.960 you know, search the v B S S v B 52 00:02:35.159 --> 00:02:37.919 S S ing. I don't know exactly what the acronym means. 53 00:02:38.000 --> 00:02:40.960 Whatever you guys can google it is. 54 00:02:42.639 --> 00:02:43.319 Search search. 55 00:02:44.039 --> 00:02:49.879 I knew the s S, so a lot happening. Straight 56 00:02:49.879 --> 00:02:52.800 of her moves is still his mind, at least partially. 57 00:02:53.639 --> 00:02:57.080 So it's kind of a huge clusterfuck. And let's I'd 58 00:02:57.080 --> 00:02:59.360 love for you guys to, you know, give us some 59 00:02:59.479 --> 00:03:02.159 clarity on what's going on and what to expect. 60 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:08.520 Make you go first age before beauty. Sorry, now's a joke. 61 00:03:08.800 --> 00:03:11.879 It's first a cool VBSS story. Since we talked about 62 00:03:11.879 --> 00:03:15.879 the Greeks, we actually trained the Greek seals and VBSS 63 00:03:15.879 --> 00:03:19.039 and we literally went for you know, like those those crews, 64 00:03:19.159 --> 00:03:22.800 those passenger ships or go to all the islands. We 65 00:03:23.000 --> 00:03:25.400 just hit those NonStop until we got to the island 66 00:03:25.400 --> 00:03:27.719 that we wanted to go to, and then we just 67 00:03:27.759 --> 00:03:31.759 pull into the island, sit out on the beach. Drake wine, 68 00:03:32.719 --> 00:03:36.400 you know, kill Maury and all that stuff, and man, 69 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:39.719 that was glorious. I don't think it's as sexy or 70 00:03:39.719 --> 00:03:43.960 cool for the guys that are doing this for real. Okay, 71 00:03:44.039 --> 00:03:48.719 so we're talking about a rod again. You know, i'd 72 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:50.479 start with this. You know, we do need to get 73 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:54.639 to a point where the US can be successful at this. 74 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:59.159 We've talked about this a lot, and I think we 75 00:03:59.240 --> 00:04:02.280 have accomplished some of our military objectives. We never should 76 00:04:02.280 --> 00:04:08.000 have used the regime change as an objective. Clearly we 77 00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:11.919 do have, probably and I think Jonathan and Mark can 78 00:04:11.960 --> 00:04:14.120 go into detail on this. I think we probably have 79 00:04:14.199 --> 00:04:18.160 a more hardline regime right now than we did before 80 00:04:18.199 --> 00:04:21.199 the war started, and I think we just need to 81 00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:24.959 accept that that's what it is. We have made strides 82 00:04:25.000 --> 00:04:27.959 against their ballistic missile program, which was somewhat of a 83 00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:32.800 shield for their nuclear program. We have made some strides 84 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:38.519 against their suicide drones, but I'd be careful from a 85 00:04:38.560 --> 00:04:42.399 messaging point of view, of overstating that because clearly they're 86 00:04:42.399 --> 00:04:44.720 going to rebuild it, and if they're back to where 87 00:04:44.759 --> 00:04:48.839 they were in a year, those military objectives are not 88 00:04:49.000 --> 00:04:51.720 going to look as significant as they do right now. 89 00:04:52.399 --> 00:04:56.000 So and then, of course the question is how do 90 00:04:56.079 --> 00:04:58.600 we deal with the top priority, which is the nuclear 91 00:04:58.720 --> 00:05:05.680 ambitions of Iran, which probably would mean recovering the four 92 00:05:05.759 --> 00:05:10.560 hundred and forty kilograms of highly enriched uranium, but it's 93 00:05:10.600 --> 00:05:13.160 important to point out they have about ten tons of 94 00:05:13.319 --> 00:05:18.720 enriched uranium, not to that level. But the best way 95 00:05:18.759 --> 00:05:21.519 to ensure that they don't try to get a nuclear 96 00:05:21.560 --> 00:05:25.279 program is make it completely against their interest to have 97 00:05:25.399 --> 00:05:30.480 a nuclear program, which means a negotiated nuclear agreement that 98 00:05:30.600 --> 00:05:34.839 provides them benefit, you know, sanctions relief, of course, being 99 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:40.240 the primary that has complete visibility, so the IAEA has 100 00:05:40.319 --> 00:05:44.319 the ability to ensure that they're not developing nuclear weapons. 101 00:05:45.120 --> 00:05:48.199 But to say that we're going to just mow the grass, 102 00:05:48.240 --> 00:05:53.120 so to speak, which I'm not necessarily opposed to, but 103 00:05:53.160 --> 00:05:56.000 I just don't think it's practical. So I think we 104 00:05:56.040 --> 00:05:59.839 should put all our eggs into or not all of them, 105 00:06:00.160 --> 00:06:03.240 but a majority of riggs into the diplomatic basket to 106 00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:05.160 try to get there. And yes, it has to be 107 00:06:05.160 --> 00:06:08.680 better than the twenty fifteen agreement for political reasons. Are 108 00:06:08.680 --> 00:06:11.959 people really going to ask why we elected to pull 109 00:06:11.959 --> 00:06:14.160 out of that just to get back to the same agreement, 110 00:06:15.279 --> 00:06:17.399 and it does have to address THEA ballistic missiles in 111 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:21.639 some capacity, at least restrictions on the straight or most 112 00:06:21.680 --> 00:06:25.000 obviously that was open before we started, so we can't 113 00:06:25.120 --> 00:06:31.360 leave it worse off. They've found their major pressure point, 114 00:06:31.399 --> 00:06:33.680 and it is a pressure point. We can all acknowledge that, 115 00:06:33.759 --> 00:06:36.560 and we've tried to counter with the blockade. I do 116 00:06:36.680 --> 00:06:40.160 believe that's where the US is going to double down blockade. 117 00:06:40.160 --> 00:06:42.959 I don't think we want to insert ground forces into 118 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:47.560 this conflict for multiple reasons. One, there's really no exit strategy. 119 00:06:47.600 --> 00:06:50.759 If we do, it's only escalatory. So we're going to 120 00:06:50.759 --> 00:06:53.600 try to push hoard on the blockade, and I do 121 00:06:53.680 --> 00:06:58.079 think it's having an effect it. I guess the next 122 00:06:58.120 --> 00:07:00.319 step is what will Iran do to try to it 123 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:04.959 where they start attacking their neighbors again, where they get 124 00:07:04.959 --> 00:07:07.720 the huthis to try to obstruct the Red Sea. Baba 125 00:07:07.839 --> 00:07:08.720 Mendev don't know. 126 00:07:10.399 --> 00:07:10.800 I do. 127 00:07:11.560 --> 00:07:14.959 I mean, it's just the way it is the way 128 00:07:14.959 --> 00:07:19.079 we're negotiating publicly. I find it to be highly ineffective 129 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:23.639 at the negotiation process itself. Every time we say things 130 00:07:23.680 --> 00:07:26.560 like well we really don't care if this could last forever, 131 00:07:26.920 --> 00:07:29.439 it just screams, we really do care. We don't want 132 00:07:29.480 --> 00:07:34.120 this to last forever. You're basically just telling the Iranians 133 00:07:34.160 --> 00:07:36.360 over and over and over again that if they can 134 00:07:36.399 --> 00:07:42.519 outlast us, that they'll be successful. It's clearly an indicator 135 00:07:42.560 --> 00:07:46.519 to me that we're highlighting what is the most concerning 136 00:07:46.680 --> 00:07:51.519 to us, other than that maybe a bifurcated process where 137 00:07:51.519 --> 00:07:54.079 we can get to it and negotiated into the war 138 00:07:54.639 --> 00:07:59.959 and then start the long term negotiated process to get 139 00:08:00.040 --> 00:08:02.720 to a new nuclear agreement. It seems like we're thinking 140 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:04.720 this is all going to happen at once. It took 141 00:08:04.759 --> 00:08:07.199 two years to get to the original agreement. We're not 142 00:08:07.240 --> 00:08:10.680 going to send two guys with no experience over there 143 00:08:11.079 --> 00:08:15.120 and both simultaneously in the war and come up with 144 00:08:15.360 --> 00:08:20.800 JCPO POA two points here. It's just very unlikely to happen. 145 00:08:20.879 --> 00:08:22.920 And the more we think it's going to happen, the 146 00:08:22.920 --> 00:08:26.279 more we're going to I think fall short. And when 147 00:08:26.279 --> 00:08:29.480 we do get to the long term negotiated process, we 148 00:08:29.519 --> 00:08:34.919 need to bring in experts, nuclear experts, careers from the military, 149 00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:41.159 State Department, intelligence community to be successful and to be 150 00:08:41.240 --> 00:08:44.639 long term, and I think we're going to have to 151 00:08:44.679 --> 00:08:47.679 convince the Iranians that we're not just going to pull 152 00:08:47.720 --> 00:08:50.879 out of the agreement in three years because the next 153 00:08:50.879 --> 00:08:56.639 president doesn't like President Trump, right, or what's the point? 154 00:08:56.759 --> 00:08:56.960 I mean? 155 00:08:57.000 --> 00:08:59.200 They might be wondering, like, why are we even bothering 156 00:08:59.240 --> 00:09:01.399 this because it's we're not going to get a treaty. 157 00:09:01.559 --> 00:09:05.639 We're only going to get an executive order level thing. 158 00:09:05.879 --> 00:09:08.600 So even if they do promise never to attack us again, 159 00:09:10.519 --> 00:09:13.000 it's not going to matter because the current president can't 160 00:09:13.000 --> 00:09:16.240 bind the future president and things like that. So we're 161 00:09:16.240 --> 00:09:18.799 going to have to address all these issues. But ultimately 162 00:09:18.840 --> 00:09:20.279 it's worth it if we can get to a new 163 00:09:20.360 --> 00:09:25.000 agreement that stabilizes the Middle East, which of course is 164 00:09:25.039 --> 00:09:27.240 in our own interest as well as our partners in 165 00:09:27.279 --> 00:09:29.320 the Middle East. And then there's all the other issues 166 00:09:29.360 --> 00:09:35.720 going on with manufacturing and defense industrial complex in the 167 00:09:35.799 --> 00:09:38.200 United States being able to keep up with this. We're 168 00:09:38.200 --> 00:09:42.559 getting very short on precision strike munitions interceptors. Our allies 169 00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:46.960 are now wondering whether we are the right provider of 170 00:09:47.159 --> 00:09:52.720 said weapons because we're not keeping up with our obligations 171 00:09:52.759 --> 00:09:56.240 based on our actions, and it's deciding to go to war. 172 00:09:57.399 --> 00:09:59.679 So that's a bigger broader issue, but it's a real 173 00:09:59.759 --> 00:10:03.519 issue from people that are reaching out to me, from 174 00:10:03.919 --> 00:10:07.320 our European partners. So I'll stop there, And I don't 175 00:10:07.320 --> 00:10:09.200 know if we're going to talk about the event last night, 176 00:10:09.320 --> 00:10:13.200 but Iran's obviously the major issue. 177 00:10:15.960 --> 00:10:16.519 Who wants it. 178 00:10:16.600 --> 00:10:19.279 I can talk about the Iran politics if you want 179 00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:21.720 a little bit, because I think a lot of outsiders 180 00:10:21.720 --> 00:10:24.559 don't understand kind of the different camps that exist domestically 181 00:10:24.559 --> 00:10:27.159 with Iranian politics. And you've seen on social media, you know, 182 00:10:27.159 --> 00:10:30.000 there's indications that there are disagreements between the different camps 183 00:10:30.000 --> 00:10:33.639 within the regime, which to some maybe surprising. They're a 184 00:10:33.639 --> 00:10:37.519 little bit obscure to understand, and it's because we don't 185 00:10:37.559 --> 00:10:39.679 often talk about domestic politics in Iran. Instead, we just 186 00:10:39.679 --> 00:10:41.639 talked about Iran the threat and don't kind of go 187 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:47.440 deeper than that. And there's four different camps. There's moderates, reformists, pragmatists, 188 00:10:47.480 --> 00:10:51.240 and hardliners, and these kind of come up over the years, 189 00:10:51.320 --> 00:10:52.799 especially like two thousand and nine when there was a 190 00:10:52.799 --> 00:10:56.320 contested election with mud Amani Nijad and then the reformists 191 00:10:56.320 --> 00:10:59.480 and the reformists probably won that election, but the hardliners 192 00:10:59.480 --> 00:11:02.240 said no and so Ahmai Nijad became the president. Again. 193 00:11:02.480 --> 00:11:04.000 That's why there was a two thousand and nine Green 194 00:11:04.039 --> 00:11:07.000 Revolution because there was this disagreement between these two groups, 195 00:11:07.720 --> 00:11:09.279 and a lot of these protests that have come out 196 00:11:09.320 --> 00:11:11.639 have been a kind of symptom or result of the 197 00:11:12.120 --> 00:11:15.000 disagreements between these groups that have existed since the revolution. 198 00:11:15.159 --> 00:11:17.080 So this isn't a new thing, but it's something that's 199 00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:20.200 important understand because when we're thinking about negotiating and when 200 00:11:20.200 --> 00:11:22.399 Trump says we don't know who we're negotiating with, it's 201 00:11:22.399 --> 00:11:26.399 actually partially true because probably on the NSC side, we 202 00:11:26.440 --> 00:11:29.200 don't actually know who holds the power levers right now. 203 00:11:30.000 --> 00:11:33.399 It's most likely the hard Liners, which is Ahmad Vahidi, 204 00:11:33.480 --> 00:11:36.000 who's in charge of the IRGC. Now. He was actually 205 00:11:36.039 --> 00:11:39.279 the original founder of Kutz Force back in nineteen eighty eight, 206 00:11:39.679 --> 00:11:42.360 when Kutz Force wasn't even a military unit yet. It 207 00:11:42.360 --> 00:11:44.120 was an idea they had and they started using it 208 00:11:44.159 --> 00:11:47.159 as this overseas. It was called Office of Liberation Movements 209 00:11:47.279 --> 00:11:51.080 or OLM. They actually sent that team to Bosnia, which 210 00:11:51.159 --> 00:11:53.559 was the first partner engagement COULDS Force ever had, was 211 00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:56.960 to fight in Bosnia with the Muslim groups there that 212 00:11:56.960 --> 00:11:58.960 the US was actually supporting, which is a very interesting 213 00:11:59.039 --> 00:12:01.399 time period in our history. We're actually aligned similar to 214 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:04.440 when we were fighting Isis in twenty sixteen, when Iran 215 00:12:04.519 --> 00:12:06.519 was also hitting the same targets at that time. So 216 00:12:06.600 --> 00:12:10.039 Fahdi also was involved in the Amea bombing in Argentina 217 00:12:10.960 --> 00:12:12.919 in the early nineteen nineties and also the bombing of 218 00:12:12.919 --> 00:12:15.000 the Israeli embassy in the early nineteen nineties, killing several 219 00:12:15.120 --> 00:12:18.000 hundred people. He was directly involved in the operational planning 220 00:12:18.039 --> 00:12:20.360 of that. So he's been a hardliner since day one, 221 00:12:20.559 --> 00:12:23.240 fought in the Iran Iraq War, and now it seems 222 00:12:23.240 --> 00:12:25.639 as though he's kind of resting control of the internal 223 00:12:25.720 --> 00:12:28.200 levers of government, which means we can probably expect a 224 00:12:28.200 --> 00:12:31.360 more hard line position not just to pomacy but also 225 00:12:31.399 --> 00:12:34.000 military operations. So he was one of the first founders 226 00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:35.759 of the Mosaic Doctor, And like all these things we 227 00:12:35.799 --> 00:12:38.639 hear about that are negative about the regime what they're doing, 228 00:12:38.879 --> 00:12:41.519 Fahiti has directly got his hand inside of that stuff. 229 00:12:41.559 --> 00:12:44.120 So when we think about like, oh, was there regime change, 230 00:12:44.360 --> 00:12:46.679 whether there was or not, the person who has power 231 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:48.440 now is worse than the person who had power before. 232 00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:50.919 It doesn't really matter how you define regime change. What 233 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:53.360 matters is what are they doing, what are the effects 234 00:12:53.360 --> 00:12:56.480 of what they're doing? And I would estimate it's going 235 00:12:56.519 --> 00:13:00.519 to be worse because this guy is he's not moderated 236 00:13:00.679 --> 00:13:04.720 by how many faction that was the clerical faction that 237 00:13:04.799 --> 00:13:07.320 was kind of had this veneer of control. The ERGC 238 00:13:07.360 --> 00:13:09.159 has always had control, but now that veneer is kind 239 00:13:09.159 --> 00:13:11.600 of removed, and we can see it removed because Muhammed 240 00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:14.480 Badger Ghalibof, the Speaker of Parliament, seems to be losing 241 00:13:14.559 --> 00:13:16.960 control over what's going on, and that control is being 242 00:13:16.960 --> 00:13:20.960 distributed over to those IERGC insiders, which are led by Bahiti. 243 00:13:21.279 --> 00:13:23.039 And I think that's important for listeners to understand, like 244 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:25.600 what's going on over there, because we may think that 245 00:13:25.639 --> 00:13:28.240 we're talking to Gollibof and Golibaf is leading the country 246 00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:31.039 because he's a Speaker of Parliament, but he actually only 247 00:13:31.039 --> 00:13:33.960 controls a small percentage now of the decision making that's 248 00:13:33.960 --> 00:13:34.840 going on in the country. 249 00:13:34.960 --> 00:13:37.919 So one of the things that I think is is 250 00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:40.799 perhaps is a conventional wisdom, but I mean, no one 251 00:13:40.799 --> 00:13:43.679 seems to think that a resumption of military activity is 252 00:13:43.759 --> 00:13:47.639 in either side's interest. Clearly, President Trump does not want 253 00:13:47.679 --> 00:13:49.559 to do this. He wants this to wind down in 254 00:13:49.559 --> 00:13:52.639 some fashion. I don't think the Pentagon wants any part 255 00:13:52.639 --> 00:13:55.000 of this whatsoever, because what is actually left to do 256 00:13:56.519 --> 00:13:59.679 when you start talking about, you know, the ground options. 257 00:14:00.639 --> 00:14:02.879 I'm sure there's opposition within D O D on this, 258 00:14:04.200 --> 00:14:08.279 and Iran doesn't get anything about resumption of military activity 259 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:11.639 because they're getting thumped. I think that you know, you know, 260 00:14:11.679 --> 00:14:14.360 I've talked about kind of this, this fascination we have 261 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:18.960 of military math and the impressive press briefings, but it 262 00:14:19.000 --> 00:14:21.440 turns out that all those impressive press briefings is not 263 00:14:21.480 --> 00:14:24.440 what the Defense Intelligence Agency is actually reporting when they 264 00:14:24.480 --> 00:14:29.200 said there's still significant percentages of thrones and launchers for 265 00:14:29.200 --> 00:14:31.879 for ballistic missiles, and so perhaps the Iranian military has 266 00:14:31.919 --> 00:14:34.000 not been degraded. There was a report yesterday I saw 267 00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:37.279 that actually in Irani and F five launched an attack 268 00:14:38.399 --> 00:14:38.960 in the Gulf. 269 00:14:39.000 --> 00:14:39.360 And so. 270 00:14:40.879 --> 00:14:43.039 But so let's just kind of go with that notion 271 00:14:43.120 --> 00:14:46.000 of and I'm just gonna say something is a little 272 00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:47.600 bit different. You guys were awesome what you said. But 273 00:14:47.840 --> 00:14:50.159 the notion is we don't want to resume military activity. 274 00:14:50.200 --> 00:14:53.759 But the negotiations aren't really going anywhere. So what happens 275 00:14:53.960 --> 00:14:57.600 is this just kind of everyone does nothing. The blockade continues, 276 00:14:58.919 --> 00:15:01.600 the strait is closed in some fashion, and it's just 277 00:15:01.639 --> 00:15:03.159 this kind of what do you call it, It's a 278 00:15:03.159 --> 00:15:06.120 it's a battle of time in terms of economic pain. 279 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:09.799 But I guess one of the questions I have is 280 00:15:09.960 --> 00:15:13.320 will the United States or Israel at some point make 281 00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:15.679 a determination again for reasons that I'm not sure I 282 00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:18.879 agree with, that resuming attacks on the on Ran is 283 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:21.399 actually in our interests? And again you know what does 284 00:15:21.399 --> 00:15:23.679 that mean? And and there is the notion of signal 285 00:15:23.759 --> 00:15:26.799 versus noise, signal meaning actually movement of assets and movement 286 00:15:26.840 --> 00:15:29.320 of assets suggests. And again you guys see the same 287 00:15:29.360 --> 00:15:32.639 airflow on open source stuff is still moving towards the region. 288 00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:36.600 We have the third aircraft carried battle Group there. I 289 00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.440 guess the second MEW has arrived or is about to. 290 00:15:39.519 --> 00:15:42.000 And so you know, it's not like they're withdrawing forces. 291 00:15:42.000 --> 00:15:46.159 We are adding. Now this might be you know, plan 292 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:49.559 in advance already, but it is kind of a strange situation, 293 00:15:49.720 --> 00:15:51.799 is that really? I mean, if you think about it, 294 00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:54.960 you know, so Vice President Vans didn't go, didn't hop 295 00:15:55.000 --> 00:15:55.399 on a plane. 296 00:15:55.440 --> 00:15:55.720 I don't. 297 00:15:55.960 --> 00:15:58.320 I think President Trump was probably correct not to send 298 00:15:58.399 --> 00:16:01.679 him because the Irani certainly could have humiliated US with this. 299 00:16:01.799 --> 00:16:04.799 But the Iranian foreign minister, I guess, said he might 300 00:16:04.840 --> 00:16:09.320 come back now to Islamabad to continue some type of talks. 301 00:16:09.360 --> 00:16:12.159 And so we're in this weird situation. Nothing is really happening. 302 00:16:12.200 --> 00:16:14.879 I mean, we're actually doing the podcast now on on 303 00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:18.120 a lot of nothing. Some stuff's happened, but not a 304 00:16:18.159 --> 00:16:21.000 lot of big moving parts. But then there's this thing 305 00:16:21.080 --> 00:16:24.360 hanging over us in terms of the military option, and 306 00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:26.600 I do think the Iranians haven't kind of unleashed what 307 00:16:26.639 --> 00:16:29.240 they could in terms of asometric warfare. Maybe they have, 308 00:16:29.679 --> 00:16:32.919 and they've we stop cyber attacks, maybe we have the 309 00:16:33.039 --> 00:16:35.240 US ice in the Israeli I sually have stopped kind 310 00:16:35.240 --> 00:16:37.919 of the Iranian terrorist apparatus overseas. But I think they 311 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:40.720 could do a lot more and they've chosen not to. 312 00:16:40.799 --> 00:16:43.840 And so I guess the question for you guys, after 313 00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:47.480 my little soliloquy there is do you think actually it's 314 00:16:47.559 --> 00:16:51.840 possible that military active best thing that could happen, Well, 315 00:16:51.840 --> 00:16:53.279 the best thing that can happen would be a really 316 00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:56.440 good diplomatic agreement, Mick, As you said, aside from that, 317 00:16:56.559 --> 00:16:59.600 maybe just this kind of strange status quo we're sitting 318 00:16:59.600 --> 00:17:03.679 at now, Well, nothing is preferable to resumption of military activity. 319 00:17:03.720 --> 00:17:04.599 What are your guys thoughts. 320 00:17:05.559 --> 00:17:08.240 I think Medvedev in Russia said it in an interesting 321 00:17:08.279 --> 00:17:11.079 way that the Straits of Hormuz are the new nuclear 322 00:17:11.119 --> 00:17:13.880 weapon for Iran, which means there's going to be a 323 00:17:13.880 --> 00:17:16.400 lot of activity happening outside the straits to try to 324 00:17:16.440 --> 00:17:19.519 affect the straits without touching the straits, which if we're 325 00:17:19.599 --> 00:17:21.720 using that framework to think about what is the Straits 326 00:17:21.920 --> 00:17:24.559 in terms of the Iranian mind right now? They don't 327 00:17:24.599 --> 00:17:26.599 want to disrupt what's going on because it's benefiting them, 328 00:17:26.680 --> 00:17:28.359 because this is a bargaining chip that they don't want 329 00:17:28.359 --> 00:17:30.960 to let go of. And I think neither side knew 330 00:17:31.000 --> 00:17:34.039 before the conflict started just how powerful this lever would 331 00:17:34.039 --> 00:17:36.680 become during the conflict, and now Iran is realizing that. 332 00:17:36.680 --> 00:17:38.000 They're like, we don't want to let go of this thing, 333 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:40.759 because now this is all we've got left, especially after 334 00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:42.880 all the strikes have degraded things within the country. So 335 00:17:42.920 --> 00:17:45.799 they're looking at this point as a non degraded, appreciable 336 00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:47.799 asset that they don't want to let go of. And 337 00:17:47.799 --> 00:17:49.599 the reason I'm mentioning that because I'm looking at Lebanon 338 00:17:49.960 --> 00:17:51.960 and think about what's going on with this meeting between 339 00:17:52.000 --> 00:17:56.400 President Awun and Netanyahu in DC, which is very historic. 340 00:17:56.400 --> 00:17:58.319 If people don't know, since nineteen eighty two, there has 341 00:17:58.359 --> 00:18:00.440 not been a meeting between the Lebanese leader and an 342 00:18:00.519 --> 00:18:03.200 Israeli leader. And if you've been to south Lebanon, there 343 00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:06.079 are signs that point south to Palestine and they don't 344 00:18:06.079 --> 00:18:09.319 have signs that point to Israel because Lebanon doesn't recognize 345 00:18:09.359 --> 00:18:12.319 Israel as a country. They recognize as Palestine. If you 346 00:18:12.359 --> 00:18:15.119 go into the museum and bey route, there's maps, you know, 347 00:18:15.160 --> 00:18:18.240 the history Museum, there are maps of Palestine today and 348 00:18:18.279 --> 00:18:20.559 it's all Israel, you know. So the fact that these 349 00:18:20.559 --> 00:18:22.880 two leaders are meeting is a very important component of 350 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:26.839 this larger negotiation where if we can break off the 351 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:31.400 Lebanese component from the main Iran theater component, at least 352 00:18:31.440 --> 00:18:34.319 from the military planning perspective, Iran's going to lose its 353 00:18:34.319 --> 00:18:36.960 ability to have a surrogate force in Hesbola if that's true, 354 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:39.640 because what will probably happen is a Lebanese armed forces 355 00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:42.359 and the IDF will start to work together in South 356 00:18:42.400 --> 00:18:45.440 Lebanon to suppress Hesbola, which is kind of a thing 357 00:18:45.480 --> 00:18:47.480 that has never been discussed in the past because we 358 00:18:47.519 --> 00:18:50.440 had the UN Security Council resolution in the South setting 359 00:18:50.519 --> 00:18:52.680 up the Blue line to kind of keep the status 360 00:18:52.759 --> 00:18:55.640 quo between Israel and Lebanon since the two thousand withdrawal. 361 00:18:56.359 --> 00:18:58.920 It's possible that that could shift a little bit where 362 00:18:59.000 --> 00:19:03.000 the Lebanese and the Israelis began suppressing Hesbola, and that 363 00:19:03.039 --> 00:19:05.640 would mean the regime would only have really it's Iraqi 364 00:19:05.680 --> 00:19:07.759 and hoothy forces that could actually be a threat in 365 00:19:07.799 --> 00:19:10.839 the region, and there could be this kind of domino 366 00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:14.920 effect where first we suppress Hesbola to a neutral degree 367 00:19:14.960 --> 00:19:16.759 so they can't do anything new new to them, and 368 00:19:16.799 --> 00:19:18.440 then we've got the Houthis kind of suppressed in the 369 00:19:18.480 --> 00:19:21.079 Red Sea area, which we generally do, and then the 370 00:19:21.119 --> 00:19:23.480 only threat really is that western portion of the Iraqi portion. 371 00:19:23.640 --> 00:19:26.240 And perhaps by taking out these dominoes, now you just 372 00:19:26.279 --> 00:19:29.160 have a rump state of the IRGC that's been reduced 373 00:19:29.160 --> 00:19:32.359 significantly anyway, and maybe that's the direction that we might 374 00:19:32.400 --> 00:19:35.440 be moving it based on how we're doing these negotiations. 375 00:19:34.880 --> 00:19:38.440 With Lebanon, John, do you see military again? Let's go 376 00:19:38.559 --> 00:19:41.240 So I think that's I mean, you know, everyone's going 377 00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:44.079 to root for this to actually work. You know, those 378 00:19:44.119 --> 00:19:46.079 of us who have been critics in the administration, I 379 00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:48.240 think on this note in terms of kind of pushing 380 00:19:49.160 --> 00:19:51.599 these rallies elevenies together, everyone is very supportive that I 381 00:19:51.599 --> 00:19:54.279 certainly am. But what about the notion. I mean, so 382 00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:56.160 let's let's put both of you guys, put your DoD 383 00:19:56.240 --> 00:19:58.079 hats back on. Do you think dood wants any part 384 00:19:58.079 --> 00:20:02.759 of rezuming military activity against Iran? And you know, and 385 00:20:03.119 --> 00:20:04.319 what would that actually entail? 386 00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:07.519 Well, can we keep doing an air campaign only? That's 387 00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:10.000 the real question. And if the answer is yes, I 388 00:20:10.039 --> 00:20:12.319 think there might be more support for it. But if 389 00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:13.680 the answer is no, I think there's a lot of 390 00:20:13.680 --> 00:20:16.640 resistance for many different reasons, not just moral reasons, but 391 00:20:16.680 --> 00:20:20.200 also operational and you know, quantitative reasons about how much 392 00:20:20.240 --> 00:20:21.839 do we have left, how much can we put there, 393 00:20:21.839 --> 00:20:24.799 how much can we sustain and maintain over time? And 394 00:20:24.839 --> 00:20:26.160 I think they're looking at that, and they're looking at 395 00:20:26.160 --> 00:20:29.000 the terrain and how difficult the rescue operation was how 396 00:20:29.079 --> 00:20:32.039 much asset was required to get those two pilots out 397 00:20:32.119 --> 00:20:35.359 was a lot. And if we can expect more down pilots, 398 00:20:35.480 --> 00:20:38.519 we can expect more harmed forces and isolated persons if 399 00:20:38.559 --> 00:20:41.359 we do a ground incursion. And I don't think the 400 00:20:41.519 --> 00:20:44.839 DoD is willing to sustain that, or maybe they will 401 00:20:44.839 --> 00:20:48.160