Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It's Wednesday, hump Day, two
Man Show today. I think Brian Leonard is traveling back east.
I believe he's on his way back to Ohio, so
he'll be back tomorrow. But we've got Trig somewhere in
central New York, Tokyo, Brandon somewhere in central Japan. Is
that right?
Speaker 2: Yep? That is correct? Correct?
Speaker 1: Awesome, and yeah, we're here to for the next hour
to do what we do, give out MLB info and
hopefully most of it wins. So I want to get
right into it. TB. It looks like the game that
I always laugh. I know, do you guys have like
do you have to go on like the subscription services
to watch games in Japan? Or like is most of
this stuff? How do you get all the games? I
guess is a question because in the States here, if
you want to watch Twins Yankees tonight, I think you
got to go to Amazon Prime, one of like five
streaming services we need to watch games.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all the Dodgers games obviously are broadcast on national
TV and get huge ratings. They also show a lot
of Cubs games because there's Amonaga and Suzuki other than that,
you have to go online and find them streaming somewhere.
So but interesting, we get a lot more access to
stuff than Americans do because there's all of licensing stuff
over there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I noticed that, like the it's a little looser
like on the international streaming, no blackouts and stuff like that.
I know MLB TV still likes to black your local
team now, but yeah, the reason I bring it up
is it looks like in the States tonight, if you
want to watch Twins Yankees, you're probably doing it on
Amazon Prime at least unless you're in the local market.
And you know, interesting series here TV. Because last week
I talked about the Twins, well, we all talked about
the Twins. They obviously sold off their team at the
trade deadline, right eleven trades. I think it was a record,
and Brian, you know, Brian Leonard brought up, hey, maybe
this is a team I want to play against. I
was sort of on the other side where I was like, well,
I'm excited about some of these young players, and they
had a good week last week, But are we seeing
the Twins kind of like become what they probably are
the rest of the season. At this point, they lose
the first two of the series, and now they're looking
at being swept at Yankee Stadium. So where are you
out in the Twins and how are you seeing this
Twins Yankees matchup?
Speaker 2: So, yeah, the way I look at it, like Schlittler's
kind of unproven. If you look at how he's been,
he's got a pretty high whip, pretty high numbers, not
a huge sample size to go on, but his whip
is one sixty six, which is not good. Looking at
his splits, he actually, yeah, he's actually worse at home
than he is on the road. And he's at home
today against a really good pitcher in Joe Ryan. Looking
at Joe Ryan's numbers against these guys, he has a
two thirty nine average against in a six ninety nine ops.
As I've said in many shows, I'll say it again.
Seven fifty is kind of my line for ops over unders.
He's under that, it means he's gotten the best of
these batters. Minnesota did sell off a lot of their
team at the trade deadline. Forty percent of their roster
was actually shipped off at the trade deadline, but they're
still hitting better than the Yankees according to my numbers
in current form I have them drink sixteen or have
the Yankees ranked twenty six. A lot of that current
form is before Judge came back, perhaps because since he's
come back, I think he's gotten a hit in almost
every game except one, so he's definitely someone to be
worried about. The Twins' bullpen is just absolute trash, though
I got them ranked twenty six out of thirty in
current form of the Yankees is pretty good. This is
how I would approach this. The Twins first five plus
zero point five is only minus one twenty. I think
that's pretty good value to take Joe Ryan against Schlitler
when my numbers have the Twins hitting better in current form.
I know the Yankees lineup is a little bit scary
with Judge there, but I think that's a pretty good
number to get it at least a tie or a
win in the first five with Joe Ryan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I would love to. I'd love
to find a way to confidently play the Twins here,
so first five makes sense. Joe Ryan is a stud.
That's the one thing. I truly believe they ran out
of time. I think, if like I think, if they
had another day, they find a way to trade Joe
Ryan as well. So the fact that they didn't is
to their benefit for the rest of this year. He's
still an ace. I think he'd be an ACE on
most teams in Major League Baseball. So no question to me.
Like even even with Schlitler's upside, which he does have
a lot of it, I still would would prefer Joe
Ryan if I was just putting those two head to head,
I'm giving Joe Ryan the edge. Now, a couple of
things with the Twins here. You you mentioned the Twins
and they're they're you know, the way they're hitting. I
don't think that's really a fluke because I I you know,
the majority of moves the Twins made around the deadline
was selling off relievers. So you know, you talk about
their bullpen, Yeah, that's a concern. No bullpen depth, no
high leverage arms. That's issue. But like they get Luke
keshel back. He's hotter than the sun, hitting three fifty
four on the season in a limited sample, but he's
been awesome. I still think Alan Road and the guy,
a guy that they got back from the Blue Jayson
a trade is going to turn the corner at some point.
But Byra Buxton was an All Star. He's back right,
he didn't play that first week out of the All
Star break, and man Twins Twins fans gott to just
shake their head and and and just sigh when they
talk about Royce Lewis, because this is a guy that
I really thought he was going to be like a
star at one point, and he's you know, he's always hurt,
can't seem to get it together. But you know, they
dropped him in the order. He's down there hitting like
sixth or seventh. Now it's not it's not a bad lineup.
And then you want to talk about pitching today, the
bullpend being an issue, Well, this might not be the
worst day for the Twins bullpen wise, because yesterday they
went with Travis Adams and then Thomas Hatch pretty much
cleaned up and pitched like five innings. So they really
didn't use any of their big time bullpen arms. So
what I think you might see here TV, I think
you might see Joe Ryan. I think they might have
Pierson Ol potentially pitch after him unless they're good, you know,
maybe they use him because right now they're listing Bailey
Ober as the starter for tomorrow, so I think ol
is probably available out of the bullpen. That's pretty appealing
to me. I think if you get because he's been
pretty good, he's one of their better young arms at
this point. I think if you get Joe Ryan a
Pierson oll in this game, that's very appealing from a
pitching standpoint for the Twins. And then it's just can
they put some runs together? Well, they haven't hit all series,
so I don't know. Maybe it is here. You give
me Joe Ryan plus one twenty. I don't hate that,
and I agree with you first five makes a lot
of sense.
Speaker 2: Here's one more stat to throw in before you go
out the next game. Joe Ryan on the road in
sixty plus innings as a two five to five VRA.
I understand era is not the tell all sign of
a good picture. But if you go sixty innings only
giving up two point five runs in those starts, that's
pretty good. Granted it wasn't all against the Yankees, but
still just a thing. He's not a bad road picture.
Just to throw that.
Speaker 1: In, that's a great point. And I think I don't
think Joe Ryan gets enough love. If we're being honest,
I don't think he's ever got the love as an ACE,
and I really truly believe he'd be an ACE on
two thirds of the teams in the league. So Jack
Barko was the Yeah, So Jack Barker was the comment
I pulled up. He said, anyone think the Twins can
take the game with Ryan on the mount? I think
TV and I both think the Twins could take this
game with Ryan on the mount. And also Jack says,
not normally up this early, can't do it. Bad accident,
So I'm at the doctor means I get to watch
my favorite show in the world. We appreciate you. Listen, Jack,
We wish you were here under better circumstances. I hope
everything's good, and you know, whatever the accident was, you
take care of. But we love having you live here.
So shout out to Jack. Hope he feels better. That sucks. Well,
we love having you live. Go ahead.
Speaker 2: Someone else have to comment that usually they can't watch
the show live, but today they're watching it live. I
can't find it right now, but yeah, so it looks
like we're gonna have lots of live viewers. So that's great, excellent,
Thanks for watching, guys. Adam, do you have a play
out yet today.
Speaker 1: I do actually, so do it be. I've got a
five percent play I am. I hate bringing it up.
I let Travis in the chat bring it up, and
I'm just gonna leave it there. I'm on a good
run right now. So I'm on a good run. Let's
put it that way. I don't want to drinkx it.
But I've got an MLB play I love and I
made it a five percenter, So great, check that out
of my page. Awesome, yep. And yeah, I'm just trying
to keep up with you. I'm just trying to keep
up with you.
Speaker 2: Well. You know, people might not know this, but when
we put a five percent play out, wager Talk makes
us with a free play out as well. So I'm
sure Adam has a free playout.
Speaker 1: So that's I'm glad you bring that up, TV, because
what I'm gonna do is so my five percent play
happens to be one of the games that goes tonight.
Anything I play, whether it be Triple A, whether it
be MLB, any any client play I have for the
afternoon session, which I'm sure there will be one because
there's there's midday Triple A games as well. I will
post for free on my page, so make sure you're
going to wager Talk has organized this for you into
a free picks tab. So if you go to the
wager talk website, you can just click free picks and
see all the free picks. But if you go to
the capp or page, they're nicely organized underneath the sale
place or the sale bricks, so check that out after
all the handicappers. Yeah, it's just you and me.
Speaker 2: I have a free play up as well. Today it's
just you and me. So I'm gonna oh, I can't
do the comments, but Jack Jack Barco just made a
comment you're getting a lot of love for your five
percent win the other day with the Rays. You got
a lot of love yesterday and today there's loving it.
That must have been an amazing, an amazing cadre.
Speaker 1: Uh So, why don't we Why don't we do this TV?
Because I think there's a segue somewhere in here. I
want to talk about Rai's A's because I guess like
I see some some similarities between. So Monday night I
made a five percent play on the A's. It was
even money. And the reason I thought it was such
a bad you know, just such a good spot for
the Rais and and Jack saying, you know, bad line
by the books. The A's were coming home from Baltimore, right,
They just spent the whole week in on the East Coast.
They played in Washington, d C. They played in Baltimore,
no travel day. They had to come home and play
on a on a Monday. And as we kind of know,
and as we've kind of highlighted, it's not really coming
home for the A's like they come back to Sacramento
where they play their home games. But I think it's
important to point out, like they have an embraced Sacramento
and Sacramento really hasn't embraced them. It seems like Sacramento
area is mostly Giants fans. Of course, Cutterhouse Park souther
Health Park is where the Giants Triple A team plays,
so I'm sure you know they get a live a
lot of Giants fans because of that, and the A's
have done nothing to like embrace being there. It's almost
like they've they've insulted the city of Sacramento in a
lot of ways by talking about how much they don't
want to be there. And then I pull up just
the just the record. If you go look at your
standings page, I mean the A's are like twenty four
and thirty. They're like eleven games under five hundred at home,
they've actually been better on the road. So I kind
of like the Rays here. The only difference is now
I'm having to pay minus one thirty for the Rais,
whereas on Monday, in like a similar spot matchup, like
a good what I thought was a good matchup for them,
I was getting them an even money. So talk to
me about this one. You got Rasmussen Gin like, I
see an edge here for the Rais, but now you're
being forced to pay for it. How are you looking
at this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Let me mention the guys in the comments, telling
God bless you. You guys are great, love your show,
thank you for all the love you guys had given us,
because if you weren't watching our show, then Wayger Talk
would cancel us. So thank you for watching. And you
go to the replay and leave, go to a replay
and leave the comments and let wayger Talk know that
you like us because we're not as popular as the
football guys. So well, Adam does football, but I don't,
so anyways, but yeah, yeah. Yeah, so now that football
season is coming up. Yeah, they're pretty focused on football.
So give us some comments and let wayser talk know
that you love our show on the replay. So regarding
this game, man, the A's are just hard to bet against,
especially in this stadium, because they're just crushing the ball.
We talked about this all season long on this show
about how they've got probably the best young nucleus of players.
If they can keep this lineup together, by the time
they're in Las Vegas, they're going to be like playing
in division championships. Oh yeah, they're good, but unfortunately their
pitching is lacking a little bit. And again is or Gin.
Or Gin however, he says his name is one example
of I mean, if they're starting this guy, you know
they're pitching is in shambles because this guy's bad. He's
just not a good pitcher. And so I mean, I
know his era is only four three nine, but he's
actually not that good. In my opinion, I've seen him
and I don't like what I see. However, the problem
with taking the race here and Rasmusen has really good
numbers against them the A's today, let me pull up
my newsletter numbers. Raspusen has a two to eleven average
against and a seven thirty nine OPS so both of
those are within uh, he's getting the best of them
sphere atmosphere, So I would love to take the race here.
The problem is they're hitting. They're just not hitting well.
And but you know what can wake up the bats
better than going against the guy like Gin? Right, So look,
I got the Ray's bullpen rink three in all of MLB,
and I've got to start pitcher Rasmussen on a curve
of thirty ranked five. So, man, they're top five in
everything except hitting. I got them ranked twenty. So do
you think Rasmussen can hold down the A's bats while
Tampa scores a few on Gin and this below mediocre bullpen? Probably,
but I'm not gonna bet it.
Speaker 1: TV. I love that you brought up the Ray's bullpen
because I truly believe right now, like if we're just
talking right now going forward, this is like a top
maybe three bullpen in Major League Baseball. I love the
fact that they went out and got Griffin Jacks. So
we talked about the Twins sort of shipping some of
their best relievers out to get guys in return. That
was one of the guys that the Twins traded, and
that was a tremendous move by the race. I truly believe,
like having him in Fairbanks down there at the back
end of that bullpen, and then just all the other
arms they have that maybe don't get the credit they deserve,
like even like a guy like Ian Seymour who's a
little bit unproven, or Edwin who Setta who's you know,
kind of pitched and beginnings of late like the Rays. Historically,
we know this team. When the Rays are good, their
bullpen is awesome. This year, they haven't been as good,
like full season out of the bullpen, but that was
something they really addressed at the trade deadline, and I
think the rest of the way, the Rays are going
to have one of the best bullpens in the league.
They're already they've already creeped into like top ten on
the year, and I think it's worth pointing out that
they're like making up for lost time. This was not
a top ten bullpen for like the first half of
the season. They definitely underachieved. Another thing you brought up
that I very much agree with, and this is this
will be what kills this Raise team this year. The
lineup just lacks like they just there's no pop in
this lineup. I love Camon Earrow, like he's an awesome player,
but one denine, they really lack like like big time
pop in this lineup. They kind of have to string
it together that the bottom of this order is very
weak in my opinion, like so it really takes like
a timely hit or two for them to score. And
you know JT. Gin, Like, I'll defend j T Gin
a little bit. He just I don't think he's bad.
He just hasn't put it together at the big league
level yet. Because this is a guy that shows has
shown a lot of promise in the minors. He was
a very high draft pick, I believe for the Mets.
I think this was a Mets draft pick that was
a high draft pick. And he came over in a
trade last year for the Mets. I forget who they
got in return for him, but point is like he's
he's got the pedigree of someone that that should be
a good starting pitcher in Major League baseball. He gets
ground balls, you know, he's got a very live fastball.
Good you know, good good fastball, good movement. He just
hasn't put it all together yet at the big league level.
So be that as it may, I think it's it's
worth pointing out he hasn't put it together, and you know,
maybe he gets himself into trouble a little bit at times,
which could happen here now. Drew Rasmussen is bordering on
an elite starter in Major League Baseball. I think that's
why the Rays are minus one thirty here. And then
you have to decide do you want to pay minus
one thirty because you know you're paying a premium. Yes,
you're getting the better pitcher, no question in Rasmussen, but
you still need the Rays to hit. And then to
your point TV, the A's are all young guys that
can really rake when they get going, and it's almost
like do you want to even you know, do you
want to step in front of it? Because when the
Rays are or when the A's are hitting, it can
be a thing of beauty. So it's a very interesting game.
I'm glad we brought this one up. I think the
Rays are probably the look here because I do think
you have a nice pitching edge, but it's not you know,
I don't know that this will make my I don't
know at minus one thirty that I'm gonna like this
play the way I did on Monday when I got
the A's at even money or the Rays that even money,
I guess is the point, right, Okay, okay, Oh, I
gotta all right, I gotta go to the Uh. There
was one in the chat. We have to bring this
one up because you know, people are in the chat saying,
don't you know this is their favorite show? We appreciate that.
I'll tell you what TV. I don't do wager talk
today very often, but the people on wager Talk today
are probably like, who's who? Like, who's this Trigg character
who came on and talked about the Pirates yesterday? And
then they got They lost by two touchdowns, and Travis says, yeah,
maybe Pirates should put Treyola in the pen. He's talking
about Treola the shortstop, because they continue to leave guys
down at triple A that are probably better than the
guys that are on their big league roster. But man,
a couple of touchdowns for the Brewers yesterday, this team
doesn't look like they're slowing down at all. How do
you how do you what do you even do with
this today? Can you can you step in front of
it and you just have to admire what they're doing.
Speaker 2: Well. Since Wood come back, he's been awesome, And today
they're facing Mitch Keller, who is three pegs lower than
Schemes who they faced yesterday. Look if this team can
crush Schemes like that, look on the show. I'll be
the first to admit total transparency. I was way wrong
on my cap for that game. I thought Schemes was
going to hold him down and that it was going
to be an under I even, you know, I think
my parlay piece yesterday was no. Maybe it wasn't. Anyways,
I had Pirates first five plus zero point five. I
was all in on Schemes. I thought he was going
to shut him down.
Speaker 1: Nope.
Speaker 2: I was totally off yesterday on this game. And so look,
what makes people intelligent more intelligent as time goes on.
What gives you wisdom is to be able to adjust
your way of thinking according to what you have experienced. Right,
That's why older people have more wisdom than younger people,
because they've experienced more stuff and they act upon that wisdom.
So I'm going to gain wisdom by yesterday's game and
not bet against the Brewers anymore. Now, the Brewers went
on this huge winning streak. When I torched them on
this show when they lost a series to the Mets,
I said their season is done, and then they go
on and win what twenty out of thirty games. So
now that I'm talking them up, they're probably gonna go
on a losing streak. But anyways, let me just break
the game down real quick. I got Woodrift ranked very
high out of thirty, I out of ranked four on
a curve of thirty out Mitch Keller ranked seventeen. Milwaukee's
bullpen slightly better than Pittsburgh, but negligible. I got them
Milwaukee twelve, Pittsburgh fifteen. Pittsburgh's bullpen's actually pretty good. And
then batting, I've got Milwaukee ranked four and I got
Pittsburgh ranked nineteen. So put all that together, Milwaukee is
ten points better than Pittsburgh on the overall rating, which
means it's definitely a play on. Maybe even take a
minus one. But let me see, do I have Woodriff's
Woodriff's stats. There wasn't a good enough sample size. No,
there's probably not a good enough sample size. Oh there
is a good enough sample size. Woodruff one fifty three
average against in a five to twenty OPS. That's two
hundred points below what I consider dominating hitters. Mitch Keller
three twenty six average against and an eight sixty nine
OPS against the Brewers. So every single arrow, every single arrow,
points to Milwaukee, and you know what happens when that happens,
they lose. But no, I mean, you can't bet Pittsburgh
in this game. You just can't. I mean the only
way you could bet them is on a hope or
a lottery ticket.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Listen, after I picked my jaw off the floor yesterday,
as I was watching schemes just get pummeled, I started
to think about, like, you know, the Brewers theoretically and
the way we do this as handicappers. Brewers sweep a
big series against the Mets. They've now won what was
it after that? They had won nine games in a
row heading into this series with the Pirates. So I
think as handicappers, we've done this long enough where we
train ourselves to be like, Okay, now they're playing a
lesser team, there's probably gonna be some sort of a letdown,
and I think we even I know myself, and Brian
kind of brought that up on Monday when you could
have gotten them plus one and a half. And the
more I watched that game yesterday, the more I started
to think, you know what, this is sort of a
unique situation where the Pirates were due for a letdown
as well. Right, Like, the Pirates actually came in and
I've talked about Pirates management and leaving guys like Candevani
and Triple A and and some of their better they
They've got players in Triple A even bullpen Arms that
I think should be on this team. Yet the Pirates,
in spite of their front office decisions, they came in.
They they finished July winning eight of nine games, and
then they came in to this series playing pretty good ball.
So the Pirates were actually probably due for this drop
off as well, because they're doing it really very much
in spite of some of the some of the decisions
their front office has made. And so you almost have
to look at that and be like, well, how long
can the Pirates do this as well? And so I
think this was just a unique scenario where the Pirates
were like almost just as hot relative to like where
they are in the standings as the Brewers, and they
came in and they just you know, now we're seeing
the Pirates for what they are. So I don't know
that I want to go against the Brewers here. Where
I will try to go against the Brewers probably TV
is this weekend when they have to go to Cincinnati,
because suddenly that that's the Cincinnati team that is desperately
going to need those games, and that's a Cincinnati team
that's a good ball club, and I think that's where
the Brewers might lose one. I don't know if I
want to do it here, because the Pirates feel like
they might be in a little bit of a free
fall mode off of a good streak as well. So
and now you got to think the Brewers too, internally
now are like, let's let's run this up. Let's see
how many, Let's see how long we can get this going.
They look like they're having a blast. Yeah, I I
Unknown entities, Unknown Entities says, ride the train. You might
just have to ride that train.
Speaker 2: I mean in gambling, I mean you never I don't know, Adam,
if you're subscribe to this theory, but you never never
bet the something is do theory. It never works. What
you do is you ride a streak until it's done right.
Generally speaking, not always, but but generally you want to
ride a streak till it'sa and Man the Reds, though,
I agree with you on the Reds. Man, they killed
me yesterday. I had the Phillies as my five dollars
play and the Reds really surprised me. I'm they're they're
a pretty good team.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about that one because yeah, I
that you know Reds yesterday I thought it was an
okay spot for them. Jabroni says Cincinnat he's a good
ball club. I see. I I don't understand. I'm not
picking on him because he brings us up. I feel
like I feel like there's a lot of Reds hate,
and I like just from the market in general, from
people I see talking on gambling Twitter, and I don't
understand it. The only thing I can understand, the only
reason that makes sense to me would be, like, I
know a lot of sharp people were very high on
this Reds team coming into the season. Okay, so like
maybe they haven't become like the maybe they're not going
to win this division. But Tokyo, Brandon, this is still
a team that's sixty three and fifty eight. They're five
games over five hundred. At one point you talked about them,
you know, as a team that you thought was going
to be really good. I still think they're really I
still think they have the upside of a team that
could be really good. Now, are they going to catch
the Brewers? No, but they're two games out of a
wild card spot. Do you think the Reds are a
playoff team this year? I'll put you on the spot.
Are the Reds making the playoffs?
Speaker 2: Well? They're pitching lacks little bit, so I think that's
their problem. And their bullpen is just atrocious. I mean
I got them ranked twenty seven, that's in current form,
But I don't think I've had them ranked higher than
twenty off season. I don't remember. Maybe I did, But
you know, to win a seven game series and to
compete against teams like the Astros or well Astros, or
American League, to compete against the Dodgers and the Phillies
in the playoffs, you're gonna have to do something about
your bullpen. They can't perform like that and win, but
can they make the playoffs? Absolutely? Green's back today after
a little hiatus. If he pitches as well as he can,
you know he's a strikeout master if he can get
back to that ten strikeouts per start and not expose
the bullpen too much. Yeah, because their lineup's not bad.
I got their lineup kind of toiling and mediocrity, as
I like to say. I got them ranked fifteen. But
I only have the Phillies ranked elevens so they can
make the playoffs that I don't think they can get
too far with that bullpen.
Speaker 1: Now, let me follow this up. You like the Phillies
yesterday it didn't work out. This doesn't look like the
worst spot to come back with the Phillies. Have you
thought about Phillies today?
Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, Phillies are a bona fide championship contender. They
usually are a year after year. But man, they got
so many See what makes a lot of people, maybe
who don't watch baseball as much as you and I do,
maybe don't realize. But what makes great a good team
great is the fact that can they run produce when
their stars are not producing. So, like the Phillies, if
Schwarber and Harper are not hitting, do they have guys
to pick up the slack? They absolutely do. And that's
why the Dodgers are so dangerous despite their horrible bullpen,
is because when Otani, Betts, and Freeman are not producing,
because for some reason it seems like those three guys
all have bad games on the same day. But then Tascar,
Hernandez and Pajz they pick up the slack. So teams
that can do that can win, but teams like the
teams like Cincinnati maybe can't. So you know, who's their
seven eight nine? Can your seven eight nine carry the
team when one, two, three, four are not producing? So
Phillies can, Reds can't. So that's the difference between great
and good in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll answer my own question before I give
my quick handicap of this game. I don't think the
Reds make the playoffs. And it's only because of the
caliber of team that's in front of them, because I
look at like I'm looking at the standings, I'm like, okay,
theoretically that the three teams that they're going to have
to beat out for a playoff spot or the Cubs,
the Padres, or the Dodgers, I suppose, and the Mets.
And even though I I still I'm still a Mets believer. Well,
we'll get to that later. They had a good game
that's in.
Speaker 2: Cubs are faltering, but the Padres are catching fire again,
aren't they.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm still I'm still a Mets believer. We can
talk about that later in the show. As far as
this game is concerned, you got Hunter Green, Yeah, they
they they have. Yeah, well we'll get to that one
in a little bit. But like, as far as this
game is concerned, like Hunter Green's been at He's been
rehabbing for the past month pretty much like so. He
he had started his rehab post All Star Break. He
made four starts. Uh, gotta be honest. Wasn't impressed, like
he he got roughed up a couple of times at TRIPA.
Speaker 2: Cummins are saying that right now, Turnbuckle Tommy said, he
gave up five runs and.
Speaker 1: He got there. Now. Now, he still managed seven strikeouts
in his last two Triple A starts, but a lot
of a lot out over the middle. I mean that
took you know, he pitched against tuled and and so
here's some Triple A perspective for you. Toledo and Omaha
right now do not have great Triple A lineups just
where they're at in the season. They just they they're
they're two of the lower rated lineups in the International
League right now, and I mean they kind of you know,
the Toledo bomb them the other day. So now to
your point, the Phillies. I always say this about the Phillies.
I prefer this team the way they stack against right
handed pitching more than left handed pitching. Even even though
a guy like Kyle Schwarber has like the highest ops
in the league against left handed pitching. I still prefer
the Phillies against righty's because it harper is better. You've
got some of those left handed guys like stop that.
Like you know, they're they're gonna they're gonna platoon a
little bit, So I gotta be hot. This might be
I'm like, I'm like thinking about throwing this one in
the parlay. I I really like Sanchez. He's a you know,
he's he's you look at his stat cast page. Uh,
He's pitching run value, as as rated by Baseball Savat
stack cast ninety nine percentile top one percent of starters
in Major League Baseball. Expected e er for Christopher Sanchez
is actually like where it's supposed to be. So some
of these guys that have a good season, you go
and look at their expected ra Sanchez is right in
line where it's supposed to be. So you know what,
let's do it. I'm gonna do it. Let's go Phillies
parlay leg for me. Phillies money line. I think you're
gonna I think you were a day early on the
Phillies TV. I think yeah, I think you should go
back to them today in some capacity because yeah, I
just want to get a line here and quote the
correct I think it's like minus one thirty ish. Let's see.
Speaker 2: I'm not I don't have anything up right now.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna pull up two books real quick and
double check that. Oh hold on, even better, they the
Reds have taken some money. That doesn't surprise me in
the least because the Reds have been the Reds take
money almost every day. Uh, They've taken money the last
two days in this series, and they're gonna take money
again today. I'm still gonna do it. I just want
to make sure it looks like it looks like minus
one fifteen. Let me just I'm gonna check, you know,
while you're.
Speaker 2: Checking, let me let me throw out my rankings for
the film. I have the Phillies. I have Christopher Sanchez
ranked number three on a curve of thirty am. He's
pitching amazing lights out. I got the Phillies bullpen rinked
number two in all of MLB, where I got the
Reds ranked twenty seven, So hitting, I have Phillies eleven
and I got the Reds nineteen, so Phillies have every
advantage here. The one thing that scares me is Sanchez
has not real good numbers against these batteris in his career,
but this year he seems like a different guy. I've
never really been a Christopher Sanchez fan, but this year
he's kind of changing my attitude. I've I've changed the
way I look at him.
Speaker 1: Elite change up when he's really he's really becoming one
of the premier sort of left handed pitch starting pitchers
in the league. I'm with you TV. A couple of
years ago, I was out on this guy, and he's
made me leaver. He's maybe a believer. All the underlying
metrics suggests he is what we see from him like,
there's nothing there to says he should regress, and I
want to go back to one more point you made.
That's very important. The Phillies not only has their bullpen
been better, but it should be better because they went
out and addressed that need at the deadline. They brought
in John Underran. They now have an elite closer, and
there were some other guys in that bullpen that were
underachieving early in the season. So you talk about you
bring in your ninth inning guy. Now you get you
have some of your other bullpen arms kind of pitching
to what they should be. It's actually a pretty good bullpen.
So yeah, let's let's do that. I'm gonna call it minus.
Speaker 2: Want to be the best, could be the best in MLB.
Speaker 1: Perhaps, Hey, when we don't, I wouldn't. That's not that's
not a terrible thought. Playoff time when we get the
playoff time and and the Phillies are are coming in
with John Durant and the ninth inning and they kind
of figure out who their seventh and eighth inning guys are. Yeah,
I'm with you. This is a this is a team
that is go ahead, go ahead. Sorry, I was just
gonna say they're heading in the right direction, and yeah,
their bullpen is sort of climbing my rankings as well.
Speaker 2: And the Padres had the best bullpen after they made
some acquisitions. But honestly, their closer is not performing that well.
He's you know, they put him in with a two
run lead, he always gives one run up. So it's like,
that's not what you want from your closer. You want
your closer to be a shutdown guy. And man, the
Phillies closer shut down. I think they might have the
best bullpen in MLB, at least right now. I thought
it was the Padres, but could be the Phillies.
Speaker 1: No question. They they got the best reliever at the
trade that getting John Duran. That was the in my opinion,
that was the best reliever out there. They got him, So.
Speaker 2: The Dodgers needed do that, but they and then you could.
Speaker 1: Say Mason Miller, saw on and so forth. But I
just feel like Duran's as the most proven, the most
like he's picked in that spot for the Twins for years.
So I am going to we'll move on from this one,
but I am putting that in the parlay. So that
is good. And mister Finn, yeah, he says Philly's best bullpen.
Don't know about that. It definitely improved I think that's
what we're talking about, like could be the best, could
write the improvements that they made, and now looking forward,
I think they're gonna throw their hat in the ring
as like an elite bullpen arm and.
Speaker 2: Be the best. They're not the best? Who is? You know?
Name them?
Speaker 1: Tell me you know Phillies will be my parlay lake
for the day, and I'm gonna call it minus one twenty.
I'm gonna call it minus one twenty. I want to
go to so you talked about the Padres. This is
a good segue here because Inky in the chat says
Sam Franz got a nasty bullpen. Yeah, those are two
pretty good bullpens right there squaring off in this series
Tokyo Brandon, have you ever been to Taiwan? Have you
ever been in tai No?
Speaker 2: I have not, so I've been to Korea but not Taiwan.
Speaker 1: The reason I ask is because that's not why I asked,
But thank you for trying. The reason the reason Kaiwai Tang,
who will start this scheme for the San Francisco jois today,
is from Taiwan. And Kaiwai Tang is a guy that
pitched most of the year at Triple A last year,
and I gotta be honest, was a gas can. I mean,
he got absolutely lit up at Triple A last year.
And to his credit, he has come back this year
and he's been he has been a completely different pitcher.
Like he he he has looked so different last year
this year in the minors that like, it doesn't surprise
me that they're sort of giving him a shot in
the big leagues right now. So you know, he was
someone that cost me a few bucks early in the
year in minor league baseball because I was betting against him,
and he is. He is a different pitcher than he
was last year. So kaiwait tang on the mound for
the Giants, but he's up against I believe it's Pivetta
here for the for the Padres. Yes, talk about this matchup,
as the chat has pointed out, two very good bullpens
and two teams that are really in need of a win,
especially the Giant. The Giants are at risk of playing
their way out of this thing hanging bring them back today.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. The reason, the reason being he's
been pitching. I mean, what do we have eight eight
innings total this season that he's pitched. He hasn't been terrible.
He got clubbed by the Mets and then he held
down the Nationals. I haven't seen enough of him to
make a real good evaluation on him, but I do
know that the CPB, which is the league he came from,
is a peg below KBO. Now we don't have to
get in, we don't have to get back into our
argument about where KBO ranks. But let's just let's just
say something we can both agree on, which is KBO
ranks below Japanese Baseball. Yes, and CPB ranks below the KBO.
So we could probably agree that the CPB might be
around single A.
Speaker 1: Perhaps, No, No, I can get down with that. That
the Tiler League is definitely worse.
Speaker 2: We're not going to start again, but anyway, but yeah,
so he comes from a very low level league, and
but that you know, you can find good guys from
that league. I mean there have been guys from Taiwan
who have played well here in Japan, not a lot
who have played well in Major League Baseball. The thing
about this game today, though, is I have the Padres
ranked nine, are better in every category across the board.
I mean, this team is just firing on all cylinders
right now. Batting ranked nine, bullpen ranked six, starting pitcher
Nick Pivetta ranked nine out of thirty on a curve
of thirty. The thing that scares me, though, is Paveta
has actually given has actually not been that great against
the Giant's batters in his past. And also a thing
that scares me off is Padres have just not really
crushed them. What was it like, a they've won two
games in a row, like four to one or something
like that, They've shut them down two games in a row.
Winning three in a row is really hard. I'm generally
a guy who takes each event as its own single event,
and I try not to be too biased about what
happened yesterday, but it really is hard to win three
in a row in Major League Baseballs. That kind of
scares me, along with the fact that Paveta doesn't have
the best numbers against these batters. But the Giants ranked
twenty four in batting, they're bullpen ranks eleven, and I
don't have Tang ranked because he hasn't pitched enough innings yet,
so m tank's kind of an X factor. I think
the Padres are better than the Giants at everything. And
I think what we're probably going to see is another
four to one win by the Padres. Here is what
it looks like to me. I'm not going to bet it, though,
just because there's two X factors that I don't like.
Speaker 1: So if I was going to bet this game, and
it is a thought, this was the other one I
was kind of maybe gonna put in. The parlay would
be Giants plus one and a half. But Giants money
line does make some sense. And you're right, the X
factor here is Kywait Tang. The guy would be betting
on is Kywait Tang. Okay, why I think he had
improved so much from last year this year is his
pitch mix. So he basically throws five pitches, he throws
them all roughly equally, and the fastball is like not
the main pitch. So essentially he's throwing like he's kind
of throwing junk like in a lot of cases. And
I just don't think Major League Baseball's got so far
in one direction in terms of like hitting velocity and
being geared up for velocity. Look at look at some
of these guys TV that are having a resurgence this year.
Kyle Hendrix right like and your guy. Yeah, Like, well,
who are you on it? You guy?
Speaker 2: Your guy? What Corbyn? Your guy?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, because he gets right because he's he's just
a you know, a veteran guy that can spot a
curveball and stuff. That's a good one.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: One that comes to mind for me that you pointed
out earlier this year was Chris Bassett, who's throwing like
eight variations of a fastball, but he's doing it in
a manner that makes it very confusing for the hitter.
So that's what you're gonna see from Kaiwei Tang. You're
gonna see he's gonna throw a change up, he's gonna
throw a sweeper, he'll hit you with a curve. They're
all in like the eighties. It's all junk. But he
does it in the zone and he confused. He's he
can he has confused minor league hitters to the point
this year. Let me just read you, guys. I want
to read you his numbers at Triple A Sacramento this year,
where he's essentially spent the whole season. And this is
a league, mind you. The PCL is a league that
is is offense forward a lot of altitude. So sometimes
he's pitching in Albuquerque or Salt Lake, where he's got
to do it in altitude. Here's his numbers. In Sacramento.
He has a he has a three to six seven ERA,
which is fine whatever. He has a one to one whip,
one point one to one whip, a one ninety four
batting average against, and eighty six strikeouts in fifty four innings.
Eighty six strikeouts in fifty four innings. Tokyo, Brandon, that's insane, like.
Speaker 2: Where they score tons of runs in the past.
Speaker 1: Yes it is, and yes you pointed out he got
called up and the Mets did get to him, and
we'll we'll tip the cap to the Mets. That's a
really should be a lineup that's better than they are.
But last time out against the Nationals, a little bit
of a step down. Five scoreless, three hits, one walk,
that's the other thing. He's in the zone a lot,
so one walk for strikeouts. I think he's going to
confuse the hell out of this Padres lineup today, and
for that reason, I think that this is a this
is one that'll have my attention. Like I said, if
I give out in early, so what time is this game?
I think this is a is this a day game here, TV.
Speaker 2: I'm in Japan early, it's an early game. It's early, so.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is one like this is one that
I'm kind of thinking of for a potential client play.
I wanted to see if the Padres would take money
because we talked about bullpen. But the Padres have used
some bullpen the last couple of days, So even though
they typically have I would say their bullpen's better than
the giants. They have used it some. I think if
you can find, like if you can find Kaiwei Tang props,
if you maybe want to take a first five, I
think the Padres are going to be very very baffled
when they see him the first time, and so maybe
you find some value there.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, TV, here's one thing, two points to make
real quick and we can move on. But one thing
about when you do sports betting a long time, there's
certain things you pick up on. And when a team's
facing a picture for the very first time, usually the
first time around the lineup, he shuts them down. Usually
I'm not saying Tang's gonna shut them down today, but
usually if you've never seen a picture before, it's advantage picture.
So that's just a sports betting thing that probably every
professional capper knows in the back of his head. Here's
another point, is what you said. I like what you
said about how the league has just become fireball throwing,
you know, not fireball drinking, but fireball throwing. And these
batters are they're expecting to see a bunch of sliders
and fastballs. And these guys who have who are not
great at anything, but good at a lot of things,
they can excel because they can confuse batters. And batters
are expecting to see ninety five mile fastball and a
and an eighty nine mile an hour slider. They're they're
expecting to see that, and they see change of sinker splitter.
You know, it's like WHOA. So, yeah, he can keep
people off their feet maybe for the first few innings. Yeah,
and that's probably all he's going to pitch, is the
first few innings.
Speaker 1: So maybe an I think he could. So he's been
a regular starter at Triple A, sof I mean, if
he's cruising, he'll go five six, if he's if he's
pitching well, like.
Speaker 2: He did in his last few he went five.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he went five scoreless against the NAT that's one. Again,
It's like that plus one and a half is somewhere
in the minus one thirty minus one forty range. So
for me personally, I'll have my eye on that. The
Padres are a team that will take money sometimes, so
if we get closer to the game time and that
dips a little bit, I'll I'll be looking at plus
one and a half there. But I wouldn't put you
off of a giant's money line. Just a value play.
I think that's great value with the Padres. Having never
seen this guy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so yeah, that's about all I have to
say about that one.
Speaker 1: Travis. To support these gentlemen, hit the like comment on
the YouTube replay. Yeah, we also go ahead.
Speaker 2: To grab Adams five percent. And I have an MLB
play out too, And like I said earlier, ways you
talk makes us put free plays out every so often,
and we both have one up today, So just take
ten seconds go to our pages at least look at
our free plays.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we very much appreciate it. And again, if you
haven't subscribed to the YouTube channel, that I've been told
by management is very very helpful to us. It's free,
it takes will take you less than one minute to
go over to YouTube and just hit the subscribe button
on the on the wager Talk YouTube channel, hit.
Speaker 2: The like button you Filthy Animals, Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1: I love that home alone reference there TV.
Speaker 2: Probably Yeah, you know, our show is not for casual
baseball fans. We're for total where our show is for
baseball geeks. Like we are people who live, who eat,
and breathe baseball. So we appreciate you guys watching, and
we we always like you guys supporting us and giving
us comments on the replay.
Speaker 1: Please do that, he GIBBRONI said, he saw you missed
Monday TV. How is the How is the drive? Is
that like a great drive? I imagine like driving out to
central Japan being like this great scenic drive.
Speaker 2: Not really, I mean you can see Mount you can
see Mount Fuji from the freeway part part way through,
but in Japan, like there's no I mean, Japan is
basically half the US population shoved into California. So uh
so even like the countryside is full of people, so
we don't have any Like when I when I went
to the University of Arizona, I would drive back and
forth tu soon in Phoenix, I would see no other
car for two hours. You don't get that in Japan.
You know, even in the boonies of the boonies, there's
someone standing behind you everywhere you go.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I a couple of years ago I did
that drive. I did Vegas to Phoenix. That drive. It
is awesome. But there was about an hour stretch where
I was like, if if I like blew out a
tire or something, I would be very very concerned that
I would not back.
Speaker 2: Hey, funny story that's not baseball related, but the hottest
day in Arizona history. My car broke down while I
was driving from from Phoenix to two Son. It was
one hundred and twenty three degrees and my car started smoking.
It was funny. I'll save that story for another day.
Speaker 1: You know, I was there is like a stretch once
you get past. I think it's Kingman, Kingman Arizona, Like,
once you get past, there is like an hour stretch
where if you break down, you are in some ship.
Speaker 2: You're no gas station, yep, yep, about an hour. Better
have one.
Speaker 1: Gas station, no service, you're pretty much flagging someone down
that's coming at you. Eighty on a on a two
lane one a double all line road and hoping they're not.
Speaker 2: You will see nobody passing you by. And US Arizonans
we know that always take water wherever you go. We
all know this, but you snowbirds don't know that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, you're right, you're probably right about that. I
doubt I had a water bottle like in the car,
but yeah, for sure, all right, turn buncle, Tommy. I
think you know I got a I you know TV.
I know the Cardinals lost yesterday, but I had already
ruined the parlay with the over in the Diamondbacks game.
And it's just it's it's why I come on here
and say, like I that's why I don't handicap totals.
That's why I don't try to bet totals. I was
so confident in that game going over and it ends
up being a three to two final. I don't remember
if it was Tommy, but someone was like, yeah, this
is an under. I'm just gonna like kick my feet
up on this first five under, and sure enough it
was like the easiest under of the day. So props
to whoever had Dbacks Rangers under yesterday. You were right.
That was a dead under. Never close. But turbucle Tommy says,
do the Astros and Hunter Brown get it done today?
He likes the Astros first five, So I'll go to
you Astros, Red Sox.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know some of those games. You know,
we're sports betters professionally, so we've watched a million baseball games,
and by the second inning, you knew that that game's
now going over. You just knew it. Their baths were
just limp. They're just like you know, I mean, you
can just tell as a sports better if you have
the over in that game, you're just like, oh God,
I don't even want to watch this crap. In the
second inning, you knew that was gonna lose. So if
there's just times like that you got the under and
they score ten runs in the second inning, you know,
sometimes you just know it. But in this game, I
love the Astros and I'll tell you why. Hunter Brown
is a guy who I had ranked top twenty. I
have him ranked top twenty almost all season. He's a stud.
And his numbers. Let me take a look at his
numbers against this team. I don't have a memorize, but
I know they're really good. Yeah, he's got a two
twenty two average against and a five to twenty five
OPS against. That's amazing. Walker Buehler, on the other hand,
against the Astro batters too eighty four average against in
the seven eighty ops which is not terrible, but that's
when he was a good pitcher, and he's not a
good pitcher anymore. So I think the Astros are just
going to curb stomp Boston today. I got the Astros
lineup ranked four. I got Boston's ranked nine, though, but
I think just Hunter Brown being a great pitcher is
going to cancel that nine out. I give huge advantage
the Astros of hitting. Neither Bullpen's really that good. They're
both twenty or worse. But I got Hunter Brown ranked
a lot higher than Walker Bueler. So I think the
Astros will definitely come back here. As a matter of fact,
I think I'm gonna make this my parlay piece. Give
me the Astros on the money line here for my
parlay piece. Hunter Brown is a great picture. He's he's great,
there's good, he's in the top level.
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. I was. Once you started talking about it.
In my head, I was like, yeah, I hope he
just throws this in the parlay because that that's the thing,
like he's another one. We talked about Joe Ryan earlier,
but maybe even more so Hunter Brown, like he's another
one the league sleeps on a little bit, or like
the betting markets tend to sleep on him, like for
whatever reason. And this is again like for whatever reason,
the Astro, like the Red Sox, are taking money against
Hunter Brown. Now I understand why the Red Sox, as
a plus money underdog, would take money against the Astros.
I think the thought process there is, well, you know,
we'll throw the starting pitchers are out. These two teams
are pretty equal. I think a lot of people probably
have the Red Sox rated ahead of the Astros just
in general. So I can understand why they're taking money.
But you know, you want to you want to talk
about like a discount. I mean, Hunter Brown, is you
you pull up his under underlying metrics, his stat cast stuff.
It is all I'll do it. I got it on
my phone right here. You can barely see it on
the screen. That's a lot of red right there. TV.
You want to see red on this page, and all
you see is red with Hunter Brown. I mean, he's
probably a.
Speaker 2: Lot of blue. And some people in the comments are
saying Bueller's been good lately. I don't see that he's
been good lately. I don't see it.
Speaker 1: No, well, he's been well. He's been good relative to
what he was earlier this year. That's that's for sure.
And and here's the thing, Like, that's the thing with Bueler.
People are gonna look at him. You know he's got
it in him because we saw it in the postseason
last year. Okay, you know he's got it in him.
But yeah, he you know, you want to talk about
like expected era is close to six. That's not very good.
You've been all over his walks, like his his command lax. Again,
it's been you know, you want to talk about him
being better. Okay, he had a good outing against the Padres.
Six score less will tip the cap there. He had
a good outing against the Padres. Previous two outings didn't
get out of the fifth inning. He did throw a
good game against the Phillies. Yeah, he's definitely even better.
But like, I just think people sleep on Hunter Brown.
I thought this, I thought Hunter Brown might win. I
thought he at one point in time earlier this year,
I thought he was gonna win the Cy Young in
the American League. He dipped for like a month, yes,
and then it's like, so okay, he's out of that
race because School and Crochet are going to battle it
out for that. But now, like if you look at
post All Star Break, he you know, he had that
one bad start against the Mariners. It's been five innings,
one run against the A's, seven innings, one run, six
strikeouts against this Red Sox team. Think they lost that game,
but he pitched great. And then he pitched into the
sixth inning in in a win over Well, he didn't
get the win, but it was a win over the Yankees.
They won an extra innings. To me, Hunter Brown so
much better than Walker Bueler. Astros get bombed last night.
They've got the bullpen arms ready to go coming back.
I agree with you. I agree with our guy turned
up with Tommy. I think Astros are the way to
look today. And yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: You're done, after you're done.
Speaker 1: Sorry, I thought I was just gonna say he likes
Astros first five. Can't talk you off that certainly makes sense.
Speaker 2: I can't tuck you off that at all, because both
bullpens are bad and not reliable in current form. But
I have Hunter Brown ring number eleven out of two
hundred and twenty pitchers, so he's still top eleven. He
wasn't the top five at the beginning of the season
like constantly, and then, like you said, he had a
little blip. But you know, this is a marathon. These
guys are not gonna be always good. Like Schemes yesterday
got bombed. Nobody expected that. Scooble is the one guy
who's yet to get bombed this season and might not
get bombed this season because he's he's so good. But yeah,
I don't see how you could go against Brown today.
Speaker 1: Mark Kinsen says, Colin, I'm willing to bet that Adams
five percent play today is Mariner's money line. It is not.
I actually lean the other way, believe it or not.
I kind of lean toward the Orioles here, So I
figured this was we already got the parlay locked in
and we'll read it off at the end of the show.
But I saw that comment. Yeah, I kind of lean
toward the home team here TV. I have my reasons why.
I'm curious if you agree or disagree.
Speaker 2: On the Boston or the Oril album.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Orioles, Mariners.
Speaker 2: We'll finish here Okay, Yeah, Gilbert's great, but so is
his counterpart. You know, Rogers been pitching, Rogers has been dealing,
and one thing about Gilbert's good, but he actually is.
Let me see, he actually does. He has decent numbers
against this team. But Rogers, Rogers has been bombed by Seattle.
The thing is Gilbert's I think there was one red
flag I saw about Gilbert. Let me check real quick.
Maybe it was his yeah away, He's got a five
plus cra away, So that was the flag that I
got on Gilbert and Rogers is a solid picture. So
do you trust the Oriols bullpen. It's a question if
the Oriols bullpen can be solid. Sure, they definitely have
a chance of winning this game. Gilbert is a great
picture though, but yeah, he's terrible on the road and
the Orioles are batting quite well. So yeah, I wouldn't
take Seattle, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Great great illustration of how two people myself, you and
you can throw three in there with Brian do things
totally different, but oftentimes we arrive at some of the
same stuff, Like you know we do. We don't any
of this, We don't talk before the show. We literally
get on here and just wing it, and you kind
of made that. That's the probably the biggest point I
would make in this handicap uh is that the Orioles
hit the ball at home like this. This team rakes
at home there they this has been going on for
a couple of years. They've been a much better team
at home. Not just win loss, but WRC plus has
always been better at home. And it's always since the
Orioles sort of sort of called this crop of players
up what we'll call it, like Rushman, Holiday, Westburn, cows Er,
you know, like the crew they have up there right now.
They've been much better against right handed pitching. And so
you want optimal Orioles. Optimal Orioles are right hand at
home against the right handed pitcher. And and so even
though Logan Gilbert is an elite right handed pitcher, this
is the subset that the Orioles thrive in. And Tokyo
Brandon just pulled it up for me. His numbers on
the road haven't been as good. So you know, the
Mariners are going to get priced as a top option,
and you know that you're gonna pay the tax for Gilbert.
Why would you want to do that? Why would you
want to pay the tax, the tax meaning the premium
to back the Mariners in back Gilbert when you're playing
into the best scenario possible for the Orioles and you're
playing into a guy in Trevor Rodgers that's been hot.
So that's kind of my handicap here. I was hoping
to get plus one and a half. I don't think
that's going to be the case at minus one forty.
But again, this is kind of right there with the Giants,
where plus one and a half is probably too expensive.
But I do think you have like a good, solid
value underdog, so I think of, like, let's put it
this way. Here's the last point I'll make with this.
I think if you were to bet the Giants and
the Orioles today, you would make money because I think
one of those underdogs is winning today, and so if
you split, I think you can still come out ahead.
That's how I'll leave it there, as all right, team,
why don't you give the give the people one more
solid promotion before we get on, Before we get on
with the show.
Speaker 2: Got it? Adam? Adam? Actually, Adam's being humble. I think
he's number one the last three days in all of
wager Talk. I'm number one in twenty twenty five in
all of wager Talk. So you've got two of the
best cappers at wager Talk here talking to you, and
Adam as a five percenter out and I have a
three percenter out, So grab those and grab our free
plays as well. We're good cappers, guys, and we do
this day in and day out to promote our stuff,
but also to give you guys some information, so not
just to take free plays, but to actually take the
information and be good better. So we're trying to educate sure,
you guys, and you guys educate us too, because we
are probably the best crowd in all of wager talk.
So thank you for that. Go to our pages, leave
a comment on the replay if you would, please tell
wager Talk that you like our show.
Speaker 1: Well, Steven says they got it run of a couple
of their lefty batters. Yeah, Cedric Mullins is no longer
in that lineup, but they also they also get Rushman back,
like you know, I think that offsets They called up.
They called up I think it was Jeremiah Jackson, who's
who I haven't seen how he's done lately, but I
guess I wanted to just address his point with the Orioles.
I think it balanced out based on like some of
the guys they had come back. But it's a good point.
Speaker 2: I have the Orioles. I have the Orioles ranked sixteen
right now in batting in current form, but they've dropped
quite a bit. They were up there pretty high.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they had they had a bad series. I feel like,
I don't know if it was the most recent one.
I'm just like going off memory, but what one series.
Maybe it was against the Phillies, so you got it.
Maybe we'll give him a break there because the Phillies
are they have a pretty solid pitching. Yeah they Oh
they didn't hit. They didn't hit against the A's really
at all either, so that that's concerning. They haven't really
hit in the last week. But again, I still it's
not my favorite play. But I still think you're paying
a premium to back the Mayor. I guess I'll leave
in disagreement. Okay, TV our parlay so a two team
or today. There's a theme here. It's us playing back
at some sharp money on the underdog with very good
elite teams and elite pitchers. So that's the theme of
the parlay. We actually are getting a better price on
this parlay now than we would have an hour ago,
which I love. So I'm gonna use Philly's money line, Tokyo,
Brandon's gonna use Astros money line. It's that simple. Phillies
Astros two teamer pays plus two ten. Hopefully we've got
our second parlay win of the week and then when
Brian's back tomorrow, we can maybe hit a three teamer.
But that's what it's gonna be for today. That's what
it's gonna be for today. Astros Phillies two team parlay
plus two ten. We are at the hour mark. Appreciate
everyone tuning in. Can't wait to have Brian back tomorrow.
Good luck today. Cashlier tickets, Yeah, head on over to
my page, grab the five percenter. We're rolling right now.
Hopefully we've got another winner and we'll see you guys
in the morning