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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bedtime Astronomy. Explore the wonders of the cosmos

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<v Speaker 1>with our soothing Bedtime Astronomie podcast. Each episode offers a

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<v Speaker 1>gentle journey through the stars, planets, and beyond, perfect for

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<v Speaker 1>unwinding after a long day. Let's travel through the mysteries

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<v Speaker 1>of the universe as you drift off into a peaceful

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<v Speaker 1>slumber under the night sky.

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<v Speaker 2>So, if you look at the absolute oldest light in

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<v Speaker 2>the universe, the grand cosmic math says, reality is thirteen

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<v Speaker 2>point eight billion years old.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>But and this is where it gets crazy. If you

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<v Speaker 2>look at your cosmic window right now, at the stars

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<v Speaker 2>and galaxies relatively close to us, the local math insists

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<v Speaker 2>the universe is a billion years younger.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a massive discrepancy.

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<v Speaker 2>Like, let that sink in for a second. We haven't

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<v Speaker 2>just misplaced your car keys. We have somehow misplaced an

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<v Speaker 2>entire billion year era of cosmic history and.

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<v Speaker 3>Losing a billion year I mean that isn't a mere

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<v Speaker 3>rounding error. It fundamentally shatters our entire timeline. It throws

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<v Speaker 3>into question really our understanding of how galaxies assembled, when

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<v Speaker 3>the first star is ignited, and even how the very

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<v Speaker 3>fabric of space and time behaves on a macroscopic scale.

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<v Speaker 3>We are dealing with highly precise data sets here, and

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<v Speaker 3>they are pointing in two completely contradictory directions.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a massive crisis in modern astronomy. They often

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<v Speaker 2>refer to it as the Hubble tension. So for everyone listening,

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<v Speaker 2>our mission today is to break down a really fascinating

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<v Speaker 2>new approach to solving this exact standoff. There's this massive

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<v Speaker 2>research effort led by dron Old Bannock at the University

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<v Speaker 2>of Portsmouth, and they submitted a study this past July

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<v Speaker 2>that tries to finally settle.

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<v Speaker 3>The debate, which is incredibly exciting, right but.

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<v Speaker 2>Instead of peering out to the very edge of the

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<v Speaker 2>observable universe, they are looking inward. They're hunting for the

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<v Speaker 2>absolute oldest, most pristine cosmic fossils right here in our

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<v Speaker 2>own galactic backyard, the Milky Way. So we are going

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<v Speaker 2>to explore these two conflict tape measures of the cosmos,

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<v Speaker 2>break down how a staggeringly massive senses of over one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and fifty five thousand ancient stars is acting as

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<v Speaker 2>a tie breaker, and explore the incredibly wild possibility that

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<v Speaker 2>our local neighborhood of space might just be completely distorting

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<v Speaker 2>our view of reality.

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<v Speaker 3>The shift in methodology here is crucial to understand because

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<v Speaker 3>for decades cosmology has relied really heavily on measuring the

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<v Speaker 3>stretching of space itself, exactly the container. This new approach

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<v Speaker 3>entirely abandons the attempt to measure the container, so to speak,

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<v Speaker 3>and instead focuses on finding the oldest possible objects sitting

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<v Speaker 3>inside that container.

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<v Speaker 2>But let's start with the container, though, because I feel

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<v Speaker 2>like you need to understand the standoff before you can

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<v Speaker 2>appreciate the solution. The core of this crisis revolves around

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<v Speaker 2>measuring how fast the universe is expanding, which is a

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<v Speaker 2>metric known as the Hubble constant. Right, And the tension

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<v Speaker 2>exists because we have this nine percent mismatch between two

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<v Speaker 2>historically bulletproof methods of measuring that expansion. Let's talk about

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<v Speaker 2>tape measure number one, the early universe.

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<v Speaker 3>So the early universe method relies on something called the

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<v Speaker 3>cosmic microwave background, or the CMB. To picture this, you

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<v Speaker 3>have to imagine the universe about three hundred and eighty

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<v Speaker 3>thousand years after the Big Bank.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, pretty early on, very early.

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<v Speaker 3>Before this point. The universe was so intensely hot and

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<v Speaker 3>dense that it was essentially a thick fog of plasma.

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<v Speaker 3>Photons of light couldn't travel freely. They just you know,

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<v Speaker 3>constantly smashed into free electrons.

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<v Speaker 2>So the universe was effectively opaque, right, just a giant, glowing,

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<v Speaker 2>superheated cloud where light was totally trapped precisely.

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<v Speaker 3>But as space expanded, it naturally cooled, and right around

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<v Speaker 3>that three hundred and eighty thousand year mark, the temperature

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<v Speaker 3>dropped just enough for electrons to finally bind to protons,

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<v Speaker 3>which formed the first neutral hydrogen.

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<v Speaker 2>Atoms, and that's when the fog lifted.

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<v Speaker 3>The fog lifted, light could suddenly travel unimpeded, and that

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<v Speaker 3>first burst of free light has literally been traveling through

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<v Speaker 3>space for billions of years. As the universe has expanded,

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<v Speaker 3>those ancient light waves have been stretched out into the

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<v Speaker 3>microwave spectrum.

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<v Speaker 2>So when we point speralized radio telescopes at the sky today,

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<v Speaker 2>we can actually see the afterglow of this exact event.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like we're looking at a baby picture.

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<v Speaker 3>Of the universe we are, and that baby picture, interestingly,

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<v Speaker 3>is not perfectly uniform. It has microscopic temperature fluctuations these

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<v Speaker 3>tiny hot and cold spots. By analyzing the physical size

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<v Speaker 3>and distribution of those temperature ripples, cosmologists can apply our

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<v Speaker 3>standard model of the universe.

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<v Speaker 2>Which is known as the Lambda CDM model. Hold on,

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<v Speaker 2>let's not let that acronym just slide by Lambda CDM.

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<v Speaker 2>What physically are we talking about there, because I know

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<v Speaker 2>that model is doing a whole lot of heavy lifting

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<v Speaker 2>in this measurement.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure, so, Lambda represents dark energy. This is the mysterious

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<v Speaker 3>intrinsic energy of space itself that is causing the expansion

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<v Speaker 3>of the universe to accelerate.

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<v Speaker 2>It pushes things apart.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, it acts like a repulsive gravity, pushing space apart.

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<v Speaker 3>Then CDM stands for cold dark matter. This is the invisible,

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<v Speaker 3>slow moving matter that doesn't interact with light at all,

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<v Speaker 3>but it exerts a massive gravitational pull. It acts as

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<v Speaker 3>the invisible staffolding for galaxies.

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<v Speaker 2>So we basically have dark energy pushing everything apart on

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<v Speaker 2>one side, in cold dark matter trying to pull it

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<v Speaker 2>all together on the other.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly. The LAMB to CDM model perfectly balances those two

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<v Speaker 3>opposing forces by plugging the temperature fluctuations of the CMB

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<v Speaker 3>baby picture. Into this mathematical model, cosmologists can calculate exactly

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<v Speaker 3>how fast the universe was expanding in its earliest moments,

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<v Speaker 3>and then they can project that math forward to the

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<v Speaker 3>present day. When you run that simulation all the way

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<v Speaker 3>to its conclusion, the math dictates that the universe has

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<v Speaker 3>been expanding for thirteen point eight billion years.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, so that is tape measure number one, giving us

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<v Speaker 2>the universe that is thirteen point eight billion years old.

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<v Speaker 2>It is an incredibly sophisticated deduction based on the oldest

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<v Speaker 2>light in existence. But then we have tape measure number two,

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<v Speaker 2>and this one doesn't look at ancient stretched out microwaves.

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<v Speaker 2>It looks at the local, present day universe right outside

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<v Speaker 2>our cosmic front door.

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<v Speaker 3>Right The local measurements rely on a completely different astrophysical tool.

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<v Speaker 3>They use standard candles. Standard candles, specifically, astronomers look at

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<v Speaker 3>pulsating stars called cepheides and exploding stars known as type

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<v Speaker 3>ia supernovae. The fundamental principle of a standard candle is

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<v Speaker 3>that we know its exact intrinsic true brightness.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me make sure I'm wrapping my head around this.

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<v Speaker 2>If I look out my window at night and I

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<v Speaker 2>see a dim street lamp, it might be a tiny

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<v Speaker 2>flashlight one hundred feet away, or it could be a

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<v Speaker 2>massive stadium floodlight a mile away. Without knowing its true brightness,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't determine its distance at all.

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<v Speaker 3>That is the fundamental problem of all astronomical observation. You

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<v Speaker 3>can't just take a literal tape measure to the stars,

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<v Speaker 3>but standard candles solve this. Back in the early twentieth century,

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<v Speaker 3>astronomer Henrietta swan Livett discovered that cephed variable stars pulse

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<v Speaker 3>at a rate that is directly tied to their true brightness,

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<v Speaker 3>so they basically blink yes, and a slower pulse means

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<v Speaker 3>a brighter star. Once you measure the pulse rate, you

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<v Speaker 3>know exactly how bright the star truly is at its source.

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<v Speaker 2>So, going back to my streetline analogy, the star essentially

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<v Speaker 2>tells you, hey, I am exactly as bright as a

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<v Speaker 2>hundred watt bulb. So when you look at it in

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<v Speaker 2>the telescope and it looks incredibly dim, you can use

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<v Speaker 2>a simple inverse square law of light to calculate precisely

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<v Speaker 2>how far away it must be to appear that dim

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<v Speaker 2>to us.

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<v Speaker 3>You've got the distance. That's half the puzzle. Now you

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<v Speaker 3>need the speed because the Hubble constant is all about

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<v Speaker 3>distance and speed. To get the speed, astronomers measure the

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<v Speaker 3>red shift of that star's light. Yeah, as the star

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<v Speaker 3>moves away from us, due to the expansion of space,

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<v Speaker 3>the light waves it emits get stretched out. Over that distance.

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<v Speaker 3>The wavelength becomes longer, shifting toward the red end of

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<v Speaker 3>the light spectrum.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, it's like the visual version of the Doppler effect.

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<v Speaker 2>Like when an ambulance speeds away from you, the sand

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<v Speaker 2>waves stretch out and the pitch drops in space. As

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<v Speaker 2>a galaxy speeds away, the light waves stretch out and

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<v Speaker 2>the color reddens.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a perfect analogy. Combining the precise distance from the

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<v Speaker 3>standard candle with the precise speed from the red shift,

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<v Speaker 3>astronomers can calculate the local expansion rate of the universe today,

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<v Speaker 3>and here is where the crisis erpts the tension. The

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<v Speaker 3>local measurement reveals a noticeably higher expansion rate than the

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<v Speaker 3>early universe. CMB measurement predicts.

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<v Speaker 2>The universe right around as appears to be flying apart,

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<v Speaker 2>roughly nine percent faster than the early universe. Baby pictures

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<v Speaker 2>said it should be, and that brings us to the

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<v Speaker 2>mathematical nightmare here. If space has been expanding at this

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<v Speaker 2>faster rate for almost all of cosmic history, it wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>have taken thirteen point eight billion years to reach its

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<v Speaker 2>current size, not at all.

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<v Speaker 3>It would have reached its current volume much much faster.

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<v Speaker 3>If you apply the local expansion rate retroactively, the universe

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<v Speaker 3>is suddenly only twelve point five to roughly twelve point

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<v Speaker 3>nine billion.

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<v Speaker 2>Years old, thirteen point eight billion on one side, twelve

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<v Speaker 2>point five billion on the other. That is a gap

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<v Speaker 2>of over a billion years. Now I have to ask

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<v Speaker 2>the obvious question that anyone listening is probably you know,

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<v Speaker 2>shouting out to speakers right now. Why can't we just

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<v Speaker 2>split the difference? Why not just average the two numbers,

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<v Speaker 2>say the universes, I don't know, thirteen point two billion

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<v Speaker 2>years old, and call it a day.

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<v Speaker 3>Splitting the difference is intellectually dishonest. In physics, it is

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<v Speaker 3>equivalent to taking a thermometer that says water boils at

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred degrees and another that says it boils at

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<v Speaker 3>ninety degrees, and just deciding water boils at ninety five degrees.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, It doesn't work that way.

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<v Speaker 3>No, these aren't sloppy approximations. The instruments measuring the CMB,

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<v Speaker 3>like the Plank satellite, are total marvels of engineering. The

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<v Speaker 3>telescopes observing the cepheeds, like the Hubble Space telescope, have

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<v Speaker 3>been calibrated relentlessly for decades. The nine percent discrepancy is

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<v Speaker 3>significantly larger than the combined margin of error for both methods, so.

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<v Speaker 2>We absolutely cannot chalk this up to like a smudge

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<v Speaker 2>on a telescope lens or a bad line of code

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<v Speaker 2>in the software. A nine percent discrepancy on a cosmic

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<v Speaker 2>scale means there has to be a physical reason for

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<v Speaker 2>the mismatch, which leaves us with two pretty terrifying possibilities.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>First, there could be some entirely new physics, some exotic

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<v Speaker 2>energy field or particle behavior that shape the universe's expansion

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<v Speaker 2>from its earliest moments that our LAMB to CDM model

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<v Speaker 2>is completely blind to. Or conversely, this fast local expansion

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<v Speaker 2>rate is an illusion created by something weird in our

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<v Speaker 2>local neighborhood.

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<v Speaker 3>The scientific community has been at a total impasse over this.

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<v Speaker 3>Are we missing a fundamental piece of the cosmological puzzle?

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<v Speaker 3>Or is our tape measure skewed by where we live?

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<v Speaker 3>And to break a deadlock like this, you cannot keep

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<v Speaker 3>using the same tools. You can't just run another CMB

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<v Speaker 3>scan or catalog another thousand supernovae.

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<v Speaker 2>You need a totally independent referee, which brings us to

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<v Speaker 2>Indronobanic and the University of Portsmouth team. They realize that

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<v Speaker 2>you have to stop measuring the stretching of the container.

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<v Speaker 2>If you want to know how old a house is,

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<v Speaker 2>you don't necessarily measure how far the wooden beams have

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<v Speaker 2>warped over time. Right, you look for a newspaper stuffed

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<v Speaker 2>in the walls during construction. You date the objects inside

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<v Speaker 2>the space.

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<v Speaker 3>This relies on what is formally called the minimum age principle,

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<v Speaker 3>and the logic is as robust as it is simple.

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<v Speaker 3>The universe cannot possibly be younger than the oldest object

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<v Speaker 3>within it.

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<v Speaker 2>I love this concept. It's like paleontology, but for the cosmos.

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<v Speaker 2>If a geologist is trying to determine the age of

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<v Speaker 2>a rock formation, they look for fossils. If they dig

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<v Speaker 2>into a canyon wall and find a trilobyte fossil, that

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<v Speaker 2>carbon and radiometric dating proves as say, five hundred million

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<v Speaker 2>years old. Then they know for an absolute, undeniable fact

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<v Speaker 2>that the canyon rock must be at least five hundred

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<v Speaker 2>million years old. Exactly, the rock cannot be younger than

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<v Speaker 2>the fossil trapped inside it.

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<v Speaker 3>Stars act as these exact cosmic fossils. If you can

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<v Speaker 3>accurately isolate and date the absolute oldest star in our galaxy,

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<v Speaker 3>you establish a hard physical floor for the age of

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<v Speaker 3>the universe. Of course, you have to add a small

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<v Speaker 3>buffer of time to account for how long it took

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<v Speaker 3>that start of physically form after the Big Bang, but

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<v Speaker 3>it gives you a definitive baseline.

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<v Speaker 2>And this methodology is a direct attack on the younger

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<v Speaker 2>twelve point five billion year estimate. Right If the local

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<v Speaker 2>expansion rate is correct and the universe is only twelve

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<v Speaker 2>point five billion years old, then it should be physically

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<v Speaker 2>impossible to find a star that is thirteen billion years old.

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<v Speaker 2>Finding a thirteen billion year old star would immediately bust

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<v Speaker 2>the local expansion theory. At least as a universal constant

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<v Speaker 2>rule for all of space.

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<v Speaker 3>The theory is flawless. The challenge is the execution. The

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<v Speaker 3>Milky Way contains anywhere from one hundred to four hundred

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<v Speaker 3>billion stars. You are searching for the absolute oldest members

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<v Speaker 3>of a population that vast. You cannot merely point a

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<v Speaker 3>telescope and estimate the age of a star just by

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<v Speaker 3>looking at its color size on the main sequence.

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<v Speaker 2>Main sequence being the long stable middle age of a

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<v Speaker 2>star's life right like what our sun is doing right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, for the vast majority of its existence, a star

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<v Speaker 3>is in hydrostatic equilibrium. Gravity is constantly trying to crush

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<v Speaker 3>the star inward, but the immense heat and pressure from

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<v Speaker 3>nuclear fusion in the core where it's fusing hydrogen into

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<v Speaker 3>helium creates an.

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<v Speaker 2>Outward pressure it pushes back.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly as long as the star has hydrogen to burn,

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<v Speaker 3>those forces are perfectly balanced. It remains stable, its brightness

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<v Speaker 3>barely changes, and its temperature remains relatively constant for billions

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<v Speaker 3>of years.

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<v Speaker 2>So if I'm trying to find a star's exact age,

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<v Speaker 2>looking at it during this phase is basically useless. It's

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<v Speaker 2>like trying to tell the difference between a thirty year

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<v Speaker 2>old human and a thirty five year old human just

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<v Speaker 2>by looking at them sitting on a couch. The physical

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<v Speaker 2>changes over that five year span are too subtle to

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<v Speaker 2>measure accurately.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great way to put it. To accurately data star.

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<v Speaker 3>You need to catch it at a moment of extreme

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<v Speaker 3>structural transition. And this brings us to the specific focus

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<v Speaker 3>of Banick's team, a very precise evolutionary stage known as

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<v Speaker 3>the subgiant phase.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, walk us through the astrophysics of a subgiant. Why

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<v Speaker 2>do we care about this specific kind of awkward teenage

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<v Speaker 2>transition phase of a star? What is physically happening inside

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<v Speaker 2>the star that makes it a perfect clock.

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<v Speaker 3>A star enters the subgiant phase the very moment it

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<v Speaker 3>exhausts the hydrogen fuel in its core, the fusion engine

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<v Speaker 3>at the very center just shuts down because that outward

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<v Speaker 3>thermal pressure disappears. Gravity instantly starts winning the battle. Oh wow, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>the helium core begins to collapse in on itself under

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<v Speaker 3>its own weight.

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<v Speaker 2>That sounds catastrophic for the star.

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<v Speaker 3>It is a massive physical crisis. As the core collapses inward,

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<v Speaker 3>the extreme compression generates an immense amount of new heat.

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<v Speaker 3>This heat radiates outward and actually ignites a fresh shell

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<v Speaker 3>of unfused hydrogen that surrounds the dead core. So now

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<v Speaker 3>you have fusion happening in a shell around the core

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<v Speaker 3>rather than right in the center. Yes, shell burning, and

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<v Speaker 3>the energy generated by this new shell burning is so

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<v Speaker 3>intense that it forces the outer gaseous layers of the

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<v Speaker 3>star to rapidly expand and cool. The star begins to

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<v Speaker 3>balloon in size. It has left the stable main sequence

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<v Speaker 3>and is well on its way to becoming a massive

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<v Speaker 3>red giant. The subgiant phase is that incredibly brief vauldatle

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<v Speaker 3>window caught right in between.

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<v Speaker 2>But wait, I'm confused here. You're telling me a star

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<v Speaker 2>going through a massive structural crisis. Its core is collapsing

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<v Speaker 2>a new shell of fire, igniting its outer layers ballooning

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<v Speaker 2>out of control. That makes it easier to date. If

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<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to figure out how old a car is,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't photograph it while the engine block is actively exploding.

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<v Speaker 2>Doesn't that volatility make it a terrible clock?

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<v Speaker 3>It's a completely fair question. But the instability is exactly

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<v Speaker 3>the feature we need. Because the star's structure is changing

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<v Speaker 3>so rapidly during this phase, its surface temperature and its

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<v Speaker 3>overall luminosity, its true brightness changed dramatically over a relatively

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<v Speaker 3>short period of cosmic time.

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<v Speaker 2>Ah I see it's moving fast on.

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<v Speaker 3>The graph exactly When a star is on the stable

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<v Speaker 3>main sequence, its brightness changes at a glacial pace, but

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<v Speaker 3>during the subgiant phase, the luminosity becomes hypersensitive to the

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<v Speaker 3>star's precise mass and its age. By mapping the exact

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<v Speaker 3>surface temperature and the exact luminosity of a subgiant, astrophysicists

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<v Speaker 3>can run stellar evolution models backward with incredible precision. The

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<v Speaker 3>rapid physical changes give us a much tighter temporal window.

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<v Speaker 2>Subgiants are the perfect cosmic clocks because they are in

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<v Speaker 2>the middle of a highly visible, mathematically predictable growth spurt.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we need the data, and you can't just comb

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<v Speaker 2>through a few hundred stars to find the absolute oldest fossils.

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<v Speaker 2>The researchers pulled data from two of the most monumental

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<v Speaker 2>astronomical surveys ever conducted, Gaya and la Most.

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<v Speaker 3>These two surveys provide complementary data sets that are fundamentally

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<v Speaker 3>altering our understanding of the galaxy. Let's start with Gaya.

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<v Speaker 3>The Gaia Space Observatory is engaged in the most ambitious

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<v Speaker 3>astrometry mission in human history. It is precisely measuring the positions, distances,

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<v Speaker 3>and proper motions of over a billion stars.

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<v Speaker 2>Astrometry is essentially the three D mapping of the galaxy. Right, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>but how does it actually know how far away a

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<v Speaker 2>star is? Without using those standard candles we.

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<v Speaker 3>Talked about earlier, Guya uses a geometric principle called parallax.

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<v Speaker 3>As the Earth orbits the Sun, our vantage point in

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<v Speaker 3>space shifts by about one hundred and eighty six million

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<v Speaker 3>miles from one side of the orbit to the other.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh like, if you hold your thumb up in front

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<v Speaker 2>of your face and close your left eye, then open

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<v Speaker 2>it and close your right eye, your thumb appears to

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<v Speaker 2>jump back and forth against the background of the wall.

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<v Speaker 2>That's parallax.

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<v Speaker 3>Precisely, Gaya takes incredibly precise measurements of a star's position

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<v Speaker 3>against the background of distant, unmoving galaxies. Six months later,

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<v Speaker 3>it takes the measurement again from the other side of

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<v Speaker 3>the Solar System. By measuring that tiny apparent shift, which

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<v Speaker 3>is microscopically small equivalent to measuring the width of a

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<v Speaker 3>human hair from miles away, Guya can calculate the exact

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<v Speaker 3>distance to the star using simple trigonometry.

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<v Speaker 2>So Gaya gives us the perfect three D position and distance.

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<v Speaker 2>What does LAWMOS do. That's the large sky area multi

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<v Speaker 2>object fiber spectroscopic telescope. A total mouthful of an acronym.

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<v Speaker 3>Lams provides spectroscopy. If GUYA is the map, most is

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<v Speaker 3>the chemical laboratory. A spectroscope takes the light emitted from

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<v Speaker 3>a star and splits it into its component colors like

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<v Speaker 3>a highly advanced prism. But when you look at that

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<v Speaker 3>resulting rainbow, there are tiny dark lines.

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<v Speaker 2>Missing from the spectrum, the absorption lines.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, different chemical elements in the star's atmosphere absorb very

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<v Speaker 3>specific wavelengths of light. By looking at which specific lines

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<v Speaker 3>of color are missing, astronomers get a literal chemical barcode.

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<v Speaker 3>LUMOS reads that barcode to tell us exactly what elements

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<v Speaker 3>a star is made of.

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<v Speaker 2>Which is absolutely crucial for dating a star. I want

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<v Speaker 2>to really dig into this because how does reading a

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<v Speaker 2>chemical barcode of a star actually tell you how old

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<v Speaker 2>it is?

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<v Speaker 3>This involves the concept of metallicity, and it requires a

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<v Speaker 3>really quick history of the elemental universe. In the immediate

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<v Speaker 3>aftermath of the Big Bang, during the first few hundred

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<v Speaker 3>million years, the universe consisted almost entirely of hydrogen and helium,

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<v Speaker 3>with just trace amounts of lithium. That was it.

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<v Speaker 2>The periodic table was basically just two blogs correct.

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<v Speaker 3>So the very first generation of stars, which astronomers call

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<v Speaker 3>population third stars, were forged purely out of this pristine

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<v Speaker 3>hydrogen and helium gas. Inside the extreme pressure of their cores,

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<v Speaker 3>these massive early stars fuse those basic elements into heavier

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<v Speaker 3>elements carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, all the way up to iron.

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<v Speaker 2>And when astronomers say metals, they don't just mean iron

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<v Speaker 2>or gold. In astrophysics, anything heavier than helium is lazily

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<v Speaker 2>referred to as a metal, right.

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<v Speaker 3>A charming quirk of astronomical jargon. Yes, oxygen, carbon, neon,

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<v Speaker 3>astronomers consider them all metals. Now, when those massive first

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<v Speaker 3>generation stars dyed in spectacular supernova explosions, they violently scattered

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<v Speaker 3>all those newly forged heavy metals out into the surrounding

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<v Speaker 3>interstellar gas clouds, so.

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<v Speaker 2>They seated the universe with the heavy stuff.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly. The next generation of stars, population two stars formed

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<v Speaker 3>from those seated gas clouds, so they incorporated a small

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<v Speaker 3>amount of those heavier metals into their structure. They lived,

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<v Speaker 3>they died, They exploded, seating the universe with even more metals. Finally,

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<v Speaker 3>you get two population I stars like our own Sun,

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<v Speaker 3>which formed relatively recently from heavily enriched gas. Our Sun

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<v Speaker 3>has a high metallicity because it is essentially made from

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<v Speaker 3>the recycled, polluted douts of multiple dead star GA generations.

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<v Speaker 2>This is an incredible detective story. So if you were

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<v Speaker 2>hunting for an ancient cosmic fossil, you do not want

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<v Speaker 2>a star with a lot of carbon or iron. You

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<v Speaker 2>want a star that is fundamentally devoid of heavy metals,

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<v Speaker 2>because that proves it formed back when the universe was

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00:20:14.240 --> 00:20:16.200
<v Speaker 2>incredibly young and chemically pure.

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00:20:16.359 --> 00:20:20.000
<v Speaker 3>A true ancient fossil will have an exceedingly low metallicity.

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00:20:20.319 --> 00:20:24.400
<v Speaker 3>By utilizing Lamost's chemical bar codes, Bannick's team could filter

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00:20:24.480 --> 00:20:27.319
<v Speaker 3>their massive data set. They started with two hundred and

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00:20:27.359 --> 00:20:31.119
<v Speaker 3>forty seven thousand, one hundred and three subgiant stars identified

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<v Speaker 3>by Gaya and Lamost, but they needed to brutally sift

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00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:36.880
<v Speaker 3>through this catalog to ensure absolute purity.

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00:20:37.039 --> 00:20:40.240
<v Speaker 2>They executed a massive purge of the data. They systematically

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00:20:40.240 --> 00:20:43.319
<v Speaker 2>removed any star whose chemical bar code didn't perfectly match

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<v Speaker 2>the expected low metallicity signature of an ancient star. But

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00:20:46.799 --> 00:20:48.839
<v Speaker 2>they didn't just stop at chemistry, did they. They applied

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<v Speaker 2>multiple layers of quality cuts.

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00:20:50.720 --> 00:20:54.960
<v Speaker 3>They did. They removed stars that had anomalous velocity readings,

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00:20:55.240 --> 00:20:57.759
<v Speaker 3>stars were parallax data from Gaya had a high margin

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<v Speaker 3>of error, and stars that might be part of binary

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00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:04.279
<v Speaker 3>systems where gravitational interactions could completely skew the numinosity readings.

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<v Speaker 3>They even ran cross checks using completely independent statistical methods

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<v Speaker 3>to verify the integrity of the data points.

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<v Speaker 2>By the end of this grueling filtration process, that initial

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<v Speaker 2>massive haul of two hundred and forty seven one hundred

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00:21:17.559 --> 00:21:21.000
<v Speaker 2>and three stars was brutally whittled down to a final

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00:21:21.359 --> 00:21:24.559
<v Speaker 2>verified sample of one hundred and fifty five thousand, six

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00:21:24.640 --> 00:21:27.279
<v Speaker 2>hundred stars. I just want to pause and appreciate the

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00:21:27.440 --> 00:21:30.680
<v Speaker 2>immense rigor of that. They intentionally threw out nearly one

426
00:21:30.759 --> 00:21:34.200
<v Speaker 2>hundred thousand perfectly good data points simply because those points

427
00:21:34.200 --> 00:21:36.599
<v Speaker 2>had a tiny fraction of a percent of uncertainty attached

428
00:21:36.599 --> 00:21:36.839
<v Speaker 2>to them.

429
00:21:36.880 --> 00:21:37.880
<v Speaker 3>Right, they had to be serious.

430
00:21:37.880 --> 00:21:41.079
<v Speaker 2>They sacrificed enormous raw quantity to guarantee that the remaining

431
00:21:41.079 --> 00:21:44.640
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and fifty five thousand, six hundred stars were structurally, chemically,

432
00:21:44.680 --> 00:21:45.759
<v Speaker 2>and physically bulletproof.

433
00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:48.519
<v Speaker 3>It is a true masterclass in data hygiene. When your

434
00:21:48.519 --> 00:21:51.519
<v Speaker 3>conclusion threatens to rewrite the fundamental age of the cosmos,

435
00:21:51.640 --> 00:21:54.000
<v Speaker 3>your foundation cannot have a single crack in it.

436
00:21:54.200 --> 00:21:56.720
<v Speaker 2>So the foundation is set. We have one hundred and

437
00:21:56.720 --> 00:22:00.880
<v Speaker 2>fifty five thousand, six hundred meticulously verified sub giant stars

438
00:22:01.079 --> 00:22:04.519
<v Speaker 2>functioning as hyper accurate cosmic clocks, all guaranteed to be

439
00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:07.680
<v Speaker 2>low metallicity fossils from the dawn of time. The team

440
00:22:07.799 --> 00:22:12.079
<v Speaker 2>analyzes the exact luminosity, surface temperature, and chemical composition of

441
00:22:12.119 --> 00:22:14.759
<v Speaker 2>every single one. What time do the clocks actually say

442
00:22:14.799 --> 00:22:15.000
<v Speaker 2>it is?

443
00:22:15.119 --> 00:22:18.400
<v Speaker 3>After running the stellar evolution models backward on this pristine sample,

444
00:22:18.680 --> 00:22:22.559
<v Speaker 3>the team reached a highly definitive conclusion. The oldest long

445
00:22:22.599 --> 00:22:24.839
<v Speaker 3>lived star in the Milky Way galaxy, based on this

446
00:22:25.000 --> 00:22:29.440
<v Speaker 3>vast census, is approximately thirteen point seven three billion years old.

447
00:22:29.559 --> 00:22:32.720
<v Speaker 2>Thirteen point seven three billion years old. That number alone

448
00:22:32.759 --> 00:22:35.680
<v Speaker 2>feels like a massive victory for the early Universe tape measure.

449
00:22:35.799 --> 00:22:37.920
<v Speaker 2>But before we just declare a winner, how tight is

450
00:22:37.960 --> 00:22:39.599
<v Speaker 2>the margin of error on that number? Is it thirteen

451
00:22:39.640 --> 00:22:41.640
<v Speaker 2>point seven three billion, give or take a billion years?

452
00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:44.640
<v Speaker 3>The precision is what makes the study so compelling. The

453
00:22:44.720 --> 00:22:49.000
<v Speaker 3>calculated age comes with an incredibly tight uncertainty window roughly

454
00:22:49.039 --> 00:22:52.319
<v Speaker 3>plus point one eight or minus point one five billion years.

455
00:22:52.359 --> 00:22:52.960
<v Speaker 2>That's nothing.

456
00:22:53.200 --> 00:22:55.240
<v Speaker 3>We are talking about a margin of error of barely

457
00:22:55.279 --> 00:22:57.759
<v Speaker 3>over one hundred million years on a timescale of nearly

458
00:22:57.839 --> 00:22:58.640
<v Speaker 3>fourteen billion.

459
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:02.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so the oldest in the Milky Way is definitively

460
00:23:02.039 --> 00:23:06.039
<v Speaker 2>thirteen point seventy three billion years old. But looping back

461
00:23:06.039 --> 00:23:08.799
<v Speaker 2>to the minimum age principle we discussed earlier, the oldest

462
00:23:08.799 --> 00:23:11.519
<v Speaker 2>star is not the exact age of the universe itself.

463
00:23:12.039 --> 00:23:14.400
<v Speaker 2>The universe had to exist for some amount of time

464
00:23:14.480 --> 00:23:16.440
<v Speaker 2>before this star could physically form.

465
00:23:16.519 --> 00:23:20.079
<v Speaker 3>This is a critical cosmological phase known as the Dark Ages.

466
00:23:20.279 --> 00:23:23.559
<v Speaker 3>When the Big Bang occurred, space expanded and the plasma cooled,

467
00:23:23.559 --> 00:23:26.240
<v Speaker 3>which gave us the cosmic microwave background, But the universe

468
00:23:26.279 --> 00:23:30.400
<v Speaker 3>was completely devoid of stars. It was a vast, pitch

469
00:23:30.480 --> 00:23:34.799
<v Speaker 3>black expanse filled almost entirely with neutral hydrogen gas, just.

470
00:23:34.880 --> 00:23:38.400
<v Speaker 2>Dark clouds of gas expanding into nothingness. How long did

471
00:23:38.440 --> 00:23:40.960
<v Speaker 2>it take for gravity to actually do something with that gas?

472
00:23:41.039 --> 00:23:43.240
<v Speaker 3>It takes an immense amount of time for gravity to

473
00:23:43.319 --> 00:23:46.599
<v Speaker 3>overcome the kinetic energy of the expanding gas, gravity has

474
00:23:46.640 --> 00:23:50.319
<v Speaker 3>to slowly pull microscopic clumps of hydrogen together. The clumps

475
00:23:50.319 --> 00:23:53.359
<v Speaker 3>gain mass, their gravitational pull increases, they draw in more gas.

476
00:23:53.440 --> 00:23:56.440
<v Speaker 3>The pressure builds, the core temperature rises to millions of degrees,

477
00:23:56.799 --> 00:24:01.279
<v Speaker 3>until finally the density is so extreme that clear fusion ignites.

478
00:24:01.720 --> 00:24:04.920
<v Speaker 2>The first light turns on. How long does our standard

479
00:24:04.920 --> 00:24:07.079
<v Speaker 2>model say that process took from the moment of the

480
00:24:07.079 --> 00:24:07.599
<v Speaker 2>Big Bang?

481
00:24:07.759 --> 00:24:11.160
<v Speaker 3>Based on the physics of gas dynamics and gravitational collapse,

482
00:24:11.480 --> 00:24:15.319
<v Speaker 3>specifically calculating what's called the genes mass, the most robust

483
00:24:15.400 --> 00:24:18.880
<v Speaker 3>cosmological models assume this dark age period lasted roughly two

484
00:24:19.000 --> 00:24:22.640
<v Speaker 3>hundred million years or zero point two billion years.

485
00:24:22.680 --> 00:24:25.039
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's do the final arithmetic. We take the

486
00:24:25.079 --> 00:24:28.839
<v Speaker 2>definitive age of our oldest subgiant fossil thirteen point seven

487
00:24:28.920 --> 00:24:32.200
<v Speaker 2>three billion years. We add the two hundred million years

488
00:24:32.200 --> 00:24:34.599
<v Speaker 2>of the dark age is required for that star's hydrogen

489
00:24:34.640 --> 00:24:37.880
<v Speaker 2>gas to coalace and ignite. Thirteen point seventy three plus

490
00:24:38.000 --> 00:24:41.759
<v Speaker 2>zero point two gives us roughly thirteen point nine billion years.

491
00:24:41.599 --> 00:24:45.720
<v Speaker 3>Which represents a monumental validation of the standard Lambda CDM model.

492
00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:49.079
<v Speaker 3>Thirteen point nine billion years aligns almost perfectly with the

493
00:24:49.079 --> 00:24:52.000
<v Speaker 3>thirteen point eight billion year age predicted by analyzing the

494
00:24:52.039 --> 00:24:53.480
<v Speaker 3>cosmic microwave background.

495
00:24:53.599 --> 00:24:56.000
<v Speaker 2>It is stunning. The container is thirteen point eight billion

496
00:24:56.079 --> 00:24:58.680
<v Speaker 2>years old, and we know this because the ancient subgiant

497
00:24:58.680 --> 00:25:00.960
<v Speaker 2>fossil sitting right here in our own galaxy demands a

498
00:25:01.000 --> 00:25:04.000
<v Speaker 2>timeline of nearly thirteen point eight billion years to exist.

499
00:25:04.200 --> 00:25:07.720
<v Speaker 2>This completely decimates the local expansion theory as a universal baseline,

500
00:25:07.720 --> 00:25:10.480
<v Speaker 2>doesn't it. Oh Absolutely like if the local measurements of

501
00:25:10.559 --> 00:25:14.400
<v Speaker 2>Cepheid's and supernovae were universally true and the universe was

502
00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:18.720
<v Speaker 2>only twelve point five billion years old, these subgiant stars

503
00:25:18.920 --> 00:25:22.519
<v Speaker 2>simply could not exist. They would be older than time itself,

504
00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:24.640
<v Speaker 2>which breaks every law of causality.

505
00:25:24.799 --> 00:25:28.920
<v Speaker 3>It reinforces the early universe measurements profoundly. The team also

506
00:25:29.000 --> 00:25:32.759
<v Speaker 3>noted that this thirteen point nine billion year figure perfectly

507
00:25:32.839 --> 00:25:36.480
<v Speaker 3>aligns with prior independent studies that attempted to date globular

508
00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:40.839
<v Speaker 3>clusters right, which are incredibly dense spherical collections of millions

509
00:25:40.880 --> 00:25:45.480
<v Speaker 3>of very old stars orbiting the galactic core. Multiple independent

510
00:25:45.519 --> 00:25:50.519
<v Speaker 3>physical phenomena, the ancient microwave afterglow, the dating of globular clusters,

511
00:25:50.559 --> 00:25:53.240
<v Speaker 3>and now the precise stellar modeling of one hundred and

512
00:25:53.279 --> 00:25:56.279
<v Speaker 3>fifty five thousand subgiants are all converging on the exact

513
00:25:56.359 --> 00:25:57.799
<v Speaker 3>same chronological baseline.

514
00:25:57.839 --> 00:25:59.759
<v Speaker 2>Okay, as much as I want to celebrate this perfectly

515
00:25:59.759 --> 00:26:03.240
<v Speaker 2>new conclusion, true scientific rigor isn't about slapping a bow

516
00:26:03.279 --> 00:26:05.640
<v Speaker 2>and a result and walking away. We have to violently

517
00:26:05.680 --> 00:26:07.839
<v Speaker 2>poke holes in this. If I'm a skeptic advocating for

518
00:26:07.880 --> 00:26:10.680
<v Speaker 2>the younger twelve point five billion year universe, ye, how

519
00:26:10.680 --> 00:26:13.240
<v Speaker 2>do I attack this thirteen point seventy three billion year

520
00:26:13.240 --> 00:26:16.279
<v Speaker 2>stellar age. The research team must have published their own uncertainties.

521
00:26:16.480 --> 00:26:20.279
<v Speaker 3>They absolutely did. Transparency regarding the limits of measurement is

522
00:26:20.319 --> 00:26:24.680
<v Speaker 3>the hallmark of robust science. The team explicitly codified five

523
00:26:24.759 --> 00:26:28.720
<v Speaker 3>specific sources of potential error, five pillars of uncertainty that

524
00:26:28.759 --> 00:26:31.119
<v Speaker 3>could systematically shift their final calculation.

525
00:26:31.279 --> 00:26:33.160
<v Speaker 2>Let's put these pillars on trial. I really want to

526
00:26:33.200 --> 00:26:35.680
<v Speaker 2>challenge them. Number one on their list is sample size. Now,

527
00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:38.039
<v Speaker 2>they started with two hundred and forty seven thousand stars

528
00:26:38.319 --> 00:26:40.240
<v Speaker 2>and whittled it down to one hundred and fifty five thousand,

529
00:26:40.319 --> 00:26:43.279
<v Speaker 2>six hundred. That is a massive data set. Why is

530
00:26:43.319 --> 00:26:46.000
<v Speaker 2>sample size still a massive pillar of uncertainty?

531
00:26:46.079 --> 00:26:48.920
<v Speaker 3>Because the Milky Way galaxy contains up to four hundred

532
00:26:48.920 --> 00:26:51.920
<v Speaker 3>billion stars. Even a pristine sample of one hundred and

533
00:26:51.920 --> 00:26:54.839
<v Speaker 3>fifty five thousand stars is a microscopic fraction of the

534
00:26:54.839 --> 00:26:58.319
<v Speaker 3>total population. The statistical reality is that they may have

535
00:26:58.359 --> 00:27:02.039
<v Speaker 3>simply missed an older outlier. Perhaps the true oldest star

536
00:27:02.160 --> 00:27:04.799
<v Speaker 3>is sitting in a quadrant of the galaxy heavily obscured

537
00:27:04.839 --> 00:27:09.079
<v Speaker 3>by interstellar dust, completely invisible to the Gaya and loamost sensors.

538
00:27:09.200 --> 00:27:11.920
<v Speaker 2>So the true age could theoretically be even older, pushing

539
00:27:11.960 --> 00:27:14.920
<v Speaker 2>the thirteen point seventy three number higher. What about pillar

540
00:27:14.960 --> 00:27:17.599
<v Speaker 2>number two quality cuts? This refers to the great sifting,

541
00:27:17.640 --> 00:27:20.039
<v Speaker 2>and we talk about removing the high metallicity stars and

542
00:27:20.079 --> 00:27:24.640
<v Speaker 2>the binary systems. How does making the data cleaner introduce uncertainty.

543
00:27:24.200 --> 00:27:27.200
<v Speaker 3>Because every time you define a parameter to cut data,

544
00:27:27.759 --> 00:27:31.640
<v Speaker 3>you are imposing a human made threshold on nature. For instance,

545
00:27:31.720 --> 00:27:35.279
<v Speaker 3>determining the exact cutoff point for what constitutes low metallicity

546
00:27:35.559 --> 00:27:39.200
<v Speaker 3>is a theoretical decision. If they set that threshold slightly

547
00:27:39.240 --> 00:27:42.519
<v Speaker 3>too high or slightly too low, they could accidentally exclude

548
00:27:42.519 --> 00:27:46.480
<v Speaker 3>older stars or falsely include younger stars, skewing the overall

549
00:27:46.559 --> 00:27:47.400
<v Speaker 3>age distribution.

550
00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:50.039
<v Speaker 2>I see the scalpel might have been a millimeter off.

551
00:27:50.480 --> 00:27:55.240
<v Speaker 2>Moving to the third uncertainty stellar model assumptions, this one

552
00:27:55.240 --> 00:27:59.119
<v Speaker 2>seems like a huge vulnerability. We're relying entirely on complex

553
00:27:59.160 --> 00:28:02.720
<v Speaker 2>computer simulations of how the cores of subgiant stars collapse

554
00:28:02.960 --> 00:28:06.720
<v Speaker 2>and ignite hydrogen shells. What if our fundamental understanding of

555
00:28:06.720 --> 00:28:10.319
<v Speaker 2>subgiant astrophysics is just flawed. What if the fusion mechanics

556
00:28:10.359 --> 00:28:13.880
<v Speaker 2>operate slightly differently under extreme low metallicity conditions.

557
00:28:14.119 --> 00:28:16.759
<v Speaker 3>It is a very valid critique. If our thermal dynamic

558
00:28:16.799 --> 00:28:19.839
<v Speaker 3>equations modeling the core collapse phase have a blind spot,

559
00:28:20.079 --> 00:28:23.319
<v Speaker 3>then our physical clock is inherently biased. The star might

560
00:28:23.359 --> 00:28:26.119
<v Speaker 3>be ticking through its subgiant phase five percent faster or

561
00:28:26.160 --> 00:28:28.599
<v Speaker 3>slower than our algorithms assume, which would.

562
00:28:28.359 --> 00:28:31.359
<v Speaker 2>Throw off the entire age calculation. Okay, fourth on their

563
00:28:31.359 --> 00:28:34.960
<v Speaker 2>list star formation timescales. This targets that two hundred million

564
00:28:35.000 --> 00:28:37.279
<v Speaker 2>year buffer we added for the dark ages. Let me

565
00:28:37.319 --> 00:28:39.799
<v Speaker 2>push back on this. We assumed it took two hundred

566
00:28:39.799 --> 00:28:42.880
<v Speaker 2>million years for the first gas clouds to ignite. But

567
00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:45.279
<v Speaker 2>what if the early universe was vastly denser than we

568
00:28:45.319 --> 00:28:48.960
<v Speaker 2>think and gravity worked much faster. What if the population

569
00:28:49.039 --> 00:28:51.880
<v Speaker 2>through stars formed in just fifty million years.

570
00:28:52.200 --> 00:28:55.359
<v Speaker 3>The timeframe of early star formation is highly debated because

571
00:28:55.359 --> 00:28:58.400
<v Speaker 3>we cannot directly observe the first generation of stars. We

572
00:28:58.440 --> 00:29:01.359
<v Speaker 3>can only model their formation view fluid dynamics and dark

573
00:29:01.400 --> 00:29:04.960
<v Speaker 3>matter clustering theories. If the first star is ignited much faster,

574
00:29:05.359 --> 00:29:08.279
<v Speaker 3>say in fifty million years, it reduces the total age

575
00:29:08.319 --> 00:29:11.680
<v Speaker 3>of the universe. Conversely, if it took four hundred million

576
00:29:11.759 --> 00:29:13.920
<v Speaker 3>years for gravity to overcome the kinetic energy of the

577
00:29:13.960 --> 00:29:15.880
<v Speaker 3>early plasma, the universe must.

578
00:29:15.759 --> 00:29:19.759
<v Speaker 2>Be older, and the final pillar of uncertainty theoretical predictions.

579
00:29:20.440 --> 00:29:22.759
<v Speaker 2>This feels a bit like a catch all safety net.

580
00:29:22.839 --> 00:29:27.359
<v Speaker 3>It acknowledges the overarching reality that our macroscopic cosmological frameworks,

581
00:29:27.359 --> 00:29:32.319
<v Speaker 3>including the lambasidim model itself, are merely mathematical approximations of reality.

582
00:29:32.359 --> 00:29:33.640
<v Speaker 3>They are not reality itself.

583
00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:37.519
<v Speaker 2>Okay, so they've listed these five major vulnerabilities. From a

584
00:29:37.559 --> 00:29:39.680
<v Speaker 2>skeptics point of view, it sounds like this study is

585
00:29:39.720 --> 00:29:42.359
<v Speaker 2>built on a very shaky foundation of assumptions.

586
00:29:42.799 --> 00:29:45.519
<v Speaker 3>Here is where the brilliance of their self analysis comes

587
00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:49.680
<v Speaker 3>into play. The team mathematically quantified the impact of each

588
00:29:49.720 --> 00:29:53.200
<v Speaker 3>of these uncertainties. They calculated that every single one of

589
00:29:53.240 --> 00:29:56.880
<v Speaker 3>these five factors limits the overall precision by roughly point

590
00:29:57.039 --> 00:30:01.480
<v Speaker 3>one five to point two gidde years. A flaw in

591
00:30:01.519 --> 00:30:04.200
<v Speaker 3>any one of these pillars only shifts the final age

592
00:30:04.200 --> 00:30:06.920
<v Speaker 3>by about one hundred and fifty to two hundred million years.

593
00:30:06.960 --> 00:30:09.920
<v Speaker 2>Oh, that completely flips the narrative. That means their methodology

594
00:30:10.039 --> 00:30:14.279
<v Speaker 2>is incredibly robust. It's not relying on one massive, fragile assumption.

595
00:30:14.680 --> 00:30:17.920
<v Speaker 2>It's balancing several small, highly constrained variables.

596
00:30:17.960 --> 00:30:21.440
<v Speaker 3>Precisely, they noted that because the uncertainties are distributed evenly

597
00:30:21.519 --> 00:30:24.920
<v Speaker 3>across these five factors, no single magical improvement in observation

598
00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:28.599
<v Speaker 3>technology or theoretical physics which sharply refine the result overnight.

599
00:30:28.839 --> 00:30:32.119
<v Speaker 2>And here is the fatal blow to the local expansion theory.

600
00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:36.440
<v Speaker 2>Even if you stack all five of these uncertainties against

601
00:30:36.440 --> 00:30:39.519
<v Speaker 2>the thirteen point eight billion year model, even if you

602
00:30:39.599 --> 00:30:42.599
<v Speaker 2>push every single margin of error to its absolute maximum

603
00:30:42.599 --> 00:30:46.039
<v Speaker 2>limit to force a younger calculation, the estimated age of

604
00:30:46.039 --> 00:30:48.880
<v Speaker 2>the universe still lands notably higher than twelve point nine

605
00:30:48.920 --> 00:30:52.119
<v Speaker 2>billion years. The absolute floor of reality holds firm.

606
00:30:52.240 --> 00:30:54.839
<v Speaker 3>The universe simply cannot be twelve point five billion years

607
00:30:54.880 --> 00:30:59.079
<v Speaker 3>old if it contains a massive, statistically unassailable population of

608
00:30:59.160 --> 00:31:02.279
<v Speaker 3>subgiant stars whose physical structures demand they are at least

609
00:31:02.279 --> 00:31:05.480
<v Speaker 3>thirteen point five billion years old. The astrophysics of the

610
00:31:05.519 --> 00:31:06.400
<v Speaker 3>stars forbid it.

611
00:31:06.720 --> 00:31:09.279
<v Speaker 2>The Early Universe tape measure was right, the universe is

612
00:31:09.319 --> 00:31:12.160
<v Speaker 2>about thirteen point eight billion years old. But this leaves

613
00:31:12.240 --> 00:31:14.680
<v Speaker 2>us with a galaxy sized elephant in the room. If

614
00:31:14.680 --> 00:31:17.720
<v Speaker 2>the universe is definitively thirteen point eight billion years old,

615
00:31:17.799 --> 00:31:20.279
<v Speaker 2>and the land of CDM model is fundamentally correct about

616
00:31:20.279 --> 00:31:23.279
<v Speaker 2>the early universe, why on Earth do our local measurements

617
00:31:23.279 --> 00:31:26.039
<v Speaker 2>of Cepheid's and supernovae insist that the space right around

618
00:31:26.119 --> 00:31:29.119
<v Speaker 2>us is expanding nine percent faster? What is actually causing

619
00:31:29.160 --> 00:31:29.920
<v Speaker 2>the Hubble tension.

620
00:31:30.200 --> 00:31:34.160
<v Speaker 3>This is where the implications of Bannock's stellar census force

621
00:31:34.279 --> 00:31:39.000
<v Speaker 3>us into incredibly bizarre territory. Because this study mathematically demands

622
00:31:39.000 --> 00:31:42.319
<v Speaker 3>an older universe, it allows us to completely rule out

623
00:31:42.359 --> 00:31:47.319
<v Speaker 3>an entire category of theoretical physics. For years, theorists proposed

624
00:31:47.359 --> 00:31:50.480
<v Speaker 3>that the Hubble tension was caused by early Universe new physics.

625
00:31:51.319 --> 00:31:55.720
<v Speaker 3>They suggested some exotic, undiscovered energy field was present immediately

626
00:31:55.759 --> 00:31:59.440
<v Speaker 3>after the Big Bang, altering the initial expansion rate universally.

627
00:31:59.519 --> 00:32:02.440
<v Speaker 2>But because these agent stars exist, we know the early

628
00:32:02.559 --> 00:32:05.400
<v Speaker 2>universe must have behaved exactly as the LAMB to CDM

629
00:32:05.480 --> 00:32:10.079
<v Speaker 2>model predicted. If weird new physics was universally accelerating expansion

630
00:32:10.079 --> 00:32:12.680
<v Speaker 2>from day one, the universe would have reached its current

631
00:32:12.759 --> 00:32:15.720
<v Speaker 2>size far too quickly, the timeline would be compressed, and

632
00:32:15.759 --> 00:32:19.039
<v Speaker 2>those thirteen point seven billion year old subgiants just wouldn't

633
00:32:19.079 --> 00:32:20.519
<v Speaker 2>have had time to form exactly.

634
00:32:21.000 --> 00:32:23.960
<v Speaker 3>The existence of the fossils proves the early climate was stable,

635
00:32:24.279 --> 00:32:27.279
<v Speaker 3>so the research team pivots entirely. If the early universe

636
00:32:27.319 --> 00:32:31.119
<v Speaker 3>was behaving normally. They favor what is called a late universe.

637
00:32:30.759 --> 00:32:33.119
<v Speaker 2>Solution, meaning the rules of the game changed recently.

638
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:37.519
<v Speaker 3>It posits that whatever fundamental mechanism is causing the Hubble tension,

639
00:32:37.960 --> 00:32:41.559
<v Speaker 3>it is a relatively recent phenomenon. In cosmic history. The

640
00:32:41.680 --> 00:32:45.920
<v Speaker 3>universal rate of expansion hasn't been a smooth constant. Something

641
00:32:45.960 --> 00:32:48.920
<v Speaker 3>has actively altered it, perhaps only within the last few

642
00:32:48.960 --> 00:32:49.720
<v Speaker 3>billion years.

643
00:32:50.000 --> 00:32:52.799
<v Speaker 2>The idea that the very fabric of space and time

644
00:32:52.920 --> 00:32:55.839
<v Speaker 2>is behaving differently today than it did for the first

645
00:32:55.839 --> 00:32:59.880
<v Speaker 2>ten billion years of its existence is profoundly unsettling. The

646
00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:03.200
<v Speaker 2>researchers didn't stop at a late time universal shift. They

647
00:33:03.240 --> 00:33:08.000
<v Speaker 2>proposed a wildly different structural alternative, and frankly, this hypothesis

648
00:33:08.039 --> 00:33:11.079
<v Speaker 2>is even more staggering. They suggest the hubble tension might

649
00:33:11.119 --> 00:33:14.319
<v Speaker 2>be a purely local illusion caused by a massive local

650
00:33:14.400 --> 00:33:15.559
<v Speaker 2>under density.

651
00:33:15.240 --> 00:33:16.559
<v Speaker 3>The void hypothesis.

652
00:33:16.640 --> 00:33:19.240
<v Speaker 2>Yes, okay, let's build a visual for this. Imagine you

653
00:33:19.240 --> 00:33:22.359
<v Speaker 2>are driving on a massive, densely packed super highway. You

654
00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:25.279
<v Speaker 2>are completely boxed in by thousands of heavy semi trucks

655
00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:28.240
<v Speaker 2>and cars. The combined mass and traffic flow force everyone

656
00:33:28.240 --> 00:33:30.880
<v Speaker 2>to move at a grinding, steady fifty five miles per hour.

657
00:33:31.160 --> 00:33:34.519
<v Speaker 2>That dense traffic represents the universe expanding normally, where the

658
00:33:34.519 --> 00:33:37.160
<v Speaker 2>gravitational pull of all the mass in the universe constantly

659
00:33:37.200 --> 00:33:39.279
<v Speaker 2>acts as a break on the expansion of space.

660
00:33:39.440 --> 00:33:42.319
<v Speaker 3>A perfect analogy for the lambda CDM balance.

661
00:33:43.119 --> 00:33:46.599
<v Speaker 2>But suddenly, your specific lane clears out, you break through

662
00:33:46.640 --> 00:33:50.359
<v Speaker 2>the pack. The heavy semi trucks surrounding you vanish, and

663
00:33:50.400 --> 00:33:53.759
<v Speaker 2>you find yourself in a massive, empty stretch of open road,

664
00:33:54.039 --> 00:33:57.039
<v Speaker 2>with nothing boxing you in and no traffic dictating your speed.

665
00:33:57.440 --> 00:34:00.079
<v Speaker 2>You naturally slam on the gas and accelerate to eighty

666
00:34:00.119 --> 00:34:02.720
<v Speaker 2>miles per hour. You feel like you are moving much

667
00:34:02.720 --> 00:34:04.920
<v Speaker 2>faster than the rest of the highway, But it is

668
00:34:04.960 --> 00:34:07.599
<v Speaker 2>only because your immediate surroundings are totally empty.

669
00:34:07.880 --> 00:34:11.199
<v Speaker 3>This is precisely the physical mechanics of the void hypothesis.

670
00:34:11.360 --> 00:34:14.480
<v Speaker 3>If our local cosmic neighborhood, the Milky Way galaxy and

671
00:34:14.519 --> 00:34:17.599
<v Speaker 3>the local group of galaxies surrounding us, is actually situated

672
00:34:17.639 --> 00:34:21.079
<v Speaker 3>deep inside a giant cosmic void, it drastically alters our

673
00:34:21.079 --> 00:34:24.519
<v Speaker 3>local physics. A void is a massive region of space

674
00:34:24.559 --> 00:34:27.320
<v Speaker 3>with a remarkably low density of matter compared to the

675
00:34:27.400 --> 00:34:28.440
<v Speaker 3>universal average.

676
00:34:28.639 --> 00:34:30.840
<v Speaker 2>Less matter phyfically means less gravity.

677
00:34:31.280 --> 00:34:35.599
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, gravity is the fundamental breaking mechanism countering the expansion

678
00:34:35.599 --> 00:34:38.199
<v Speaker 3>of the universe. If we happen to live in an

679
00:34:38.239 --> 00:34:42.480
<v Speaker 3>immense bubble that contains significantly fewer galaxies, less gas, and

680
00:34:42.519 --> 00:34:46.199
<v Speaker 3>critically less cold dark matter, there is simply less local

681
00:34:46.239 --> 00:34:50.079
<v Speaker 3>gravity to pull inward. Without that gravitational anchor, the space

682
00:34:50.159 --> 00:34:54.079
<v Speaker 3>immediately inside this void would literally expand outward faster than

683
00:34:54.119 --> 00:34:56.119
<v Speaker 3>the space and denser regions of the universe.

684
00:34:56.199 --> 00:34:59.400
<v Speaker 2>So when our telescopes measure the Cepheide standard candles in

685
00:34:59.440 --> 00:35:03.440
<v Speaker 2>the exploding supernovae right around us, they are objectively moving

686
00:35:03.440 --> 00:35:07.199
<v Speaker 2>away nine percent faster. Our local tape measure isn't broken.

687
00:35:07.440 --> 00:35:10.440
<v Speaker 2>Our astronomers haven't made a mistake. They are accurately measuring

688
00:35:10.440 --> 00:35:13.320
<v Speaker 2>a local anomaly. It is the equivalent of trying to

689
00:35:13.360 --> 00:35:16.280
<v Speaker 2>calculate the average global temperature of the Earth by only

690
00:35:16.360 --> 00:35:19.559
<v Speaker 2>using the thermometer mounted inside a running sauna. The instrument

691
00:35:19.599 --> 00:35:22.320
<v Speaker 2>is giving you a perfectly accurate reading of its immediate environment,

692
00:35:22.559 --> 00:35:25.599
<v Speaker 2>but a terribly distorted reading of the entire planet.

693
00:35:25.239 --> 00:35:29.119
<v Speaker 3>Which brings up the KBC Void. Some astronomers have actively

694
00:35:29.199 --> 00:35:33.360
<v Speaker 3>hypothesized the existence of a massive local under density known

695
00:35:33.360 --> 00:35:37.079
<v Speaker 3>as the KBC Void, named after Keenan, Barger and Cowie,

696
00:35:37.280 --> 00:35:41.239
<v Speaker 3>who proposed it in twenty thirteen. They suggested we might

697
00:35:41.239 --> 00:35:43.960
<v Speaker 3>be sitting near the center of a roughly spherical region

698
00:35:43.960 --> 00:35:47.360
<v Speaker 3>of space that is vastly larger and emptier than standard

699
00:35:47.360 --> 00:35:49.039
<v Speaker 3>cosmological models predict.

700
00:35:49.320 --> 00:35:52.400
<v Speaker 2>If the void hypothesis is true, it is an incredible

701
00:35:52.440 --> 00:35:55.559
<v Speaker 2>resolution to the crisis. We don't need to invent exotic

702
00:35:55.559 --> 00:35:57.639
<v Speaker 2>new physics to fix the math. We don't have to

703
00:35:57.639 --> 00:35:59.920
<v Speaker 2>throw away the LAMB to CDM model. We just have

704
00:36:00.159 --> 00:36:01.679
<v Speaker 2>to accept that our neighborhood is weird.

705
00:36:01.960 --> 00:36:04.719
<v Speaker 3>But excepting that our neighborhood is weird, violates one of

706
00:36:04.760 --> 00:36:08.599
<v Speaker 3>the most sacred philosophical pillars of astronomy, the Copernican principle.

707
00:36:08.880 --> 00:36:11.320
<v Speaker 2>Explain the Copernican principle in this context, because I think

708
00:36:11.320 --> 00:36:14.159
<v Speaker 2>this is where the physics bleeds into pure philosophy.

709
00:36:14.519 --> 00:36:17.320
<v Speaker 3>Ever since Nicholas Copernicus proved the Earth was not the

710
00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:20.320
<v Speaker 3>center of the Solar System, science has operated on the

711
00:36:20.320 --> 00:36:24.199
<v Speaker 3>assumption that humanity does not occupy a special, privileged, or

712
00:36:24.280 --> 00:36:27.800
<v Speaker 3>highly unusual place in the universe. We assume our vantage

713
00:36:27.800 --> 00:36:30.360
<v Speaker 3>point is completely average when we look out from the

714
00:36:30.360 --> 00:36:33.519
<v Speaker 3>Milky Way. We assume the physics we observe locally applies

715
00:36:33.599 --> 00:36:35.360
<v Speaker 3>uniformly to the rest of the cosmos.

716
00:36:35.719 --> 00:36:39.960
<v Speaker 2>But the void hypothesis violently shatters that assumption. It suggests

717
00:36:40.000 --> 00:36:43.920
<v Speaker 2>that out of all the incredibly dense, bustling galactic superclusters

718
00:36:43.920 --> 00:36:46.480
<v Speaker 2>we could have evolved in, we just so happened to

719
00:36:46.519 --> 00:36:49.280
<v Speaker 2>spawn in the cosmic equivalent of a deserted cul de sac.

720
00:36:50.159 --> 00:36:53.800
<v Speaker 2>Our view of the universe's expansion is artificially inflated, purely

721
00:36:53.840 --> 00:36:55.960
<v Speaker 2>because of our deeply unusual zip code.

722
00:36:56.039 --> 00:36:59.360
<v Speaker 3>It is a humbling realization. Our localized measurements of reality

723
00:36:59.400 --> 00:37:02.920
<v Speaker 3>are perfectly precise, yet entirely unrepresentative of the cosmic hole.

724
00:37:03.119 --> 00:37:07.079
<v Speaker 2>It's an incredible synthesis of disciplines. Let's just step back

725
00:37:07.119 --> 00:37:10.199
<v Speaker 2>and trace the arc of this journey. We started with

726
00:37:10.239 --> 00:37:15.280
<v Speaker 2>a fundamental crisis threatening modern astrophysics, two tape measures giving

727
00:37:15.320 --> 00:37:19.880
<v Speaker 2>two wildly incompatible ages for reality itself, threatening a missing

728
00:37:20.159 --> 00:37:23.920
<v Speaker 2>billion year era of time. To solve this, astronomers didn't

729
00:37:23.960 --> 00:37:26.199
<v Speaker 2>launch a bigger telescope to look further back in time.

730
00:37:26.440 --> 00:37:30.519
<v Speaker 2>They looked closely at the ancient low metallicity subgiant stars

731
00:37:30.880 --> 00:37:33.519
<v Speaker 2>caught in their volatile transitional phase right here in the

732
00:37:33.519 --> 00:37:34.119
<v Speaker 2>Milky Way.

733
00:37:34.599 --> 00:37:38.480
<v Speaker 3>By understanding the delicate thermodynamics of a collapsing stellar core,

734
00:37:38.960 --> 00:37:41.719
<v Speaker 3>they transformed these one hundred and fifty five thousand subgiants

735
00:37:41.760 --> 00:37:45.880
<v Speaker 3>into hyper precise temporal checkpoints. They verified the existence of

736
00:37:46.039 --> 00:37:49.559
<v Speaker 3>hard cosmic floor, definitively proving the universe is roughly thirteen

737
00:37:49.599 --> 00:37:53.280
<v Speaker 3>point eight billion years old, entirely vindicating the early universe

738
00:37:53.360 --> 00:37:54.679
<v Speaker 3>microwave background measurements.

739
00:37:54.760 --> 00:37:57.239
<v Speaker 2>It proves that sometimes to understand the sheer vastness of

740
00:37:57.239 --> 00:37:59.400
<v Speaker 2>the cosmos, we don't need to look billions of light

741
00:37:59.440 --> 00:38:02.719
<v Speaker 2>years away. Sometimes the most profound answers are encoded in

742
00:38:02.760 --> 00:38:05.199
<v Speaker 2>the chemical barcodes of the ancient relics float and right

743
00:38:05.199 --> 00:38:06.000
<v Speaker 2>in our own backyard.

744
00:38:06.159 --> 00:38:10.159
<v Speaker 3>But solving one mystery has fully exposed another. The hubble

745
00:38:10.159 --> 00:38:13.840
<v Speaker 3>tension remains a reality of observation, but its fundamental nature

746
00:38:13.880 --> 00:38:17.000
<v Speaker 3>has shifted. It is no longer an existential debate about

747
00:38:17.000 --> 00:38:19.320
<v Speaker 3>the age of the universe. It is a debate about

748
00:38:19.360 --> 00:38:22.079
<v Speaker 3>the recent structural behavior of our localized.

749
00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:25.679
<v Speaker 2>Space, which leaves us with a truly lingering, almost unsettling thought.

750
00:38:26.440 --> 00:38:29.199
<v Speaker 2>If this hubble tension is indeed caused by our solar

751
00:38:29.239 --> 00:38:33.800
<v Speaker 2>system existing in a massive cosmic void, a localized bubble

752
00:38:33.840 --> 00:38:36.320
<v Speaker 2>of under density, where the physical rules of expansion are

753
00:38:36.320 --> 00:38:40.000
<v Speaker 2>slightly tweaked just for us, it means our immediate perspective

754
00:38:40.039 --> 00:38:43.840
<v Speaker 2>on reality is fundamentally skewed simply by where we are standing.

755
00:38:44.480 --> 00:38:46.840
<v Speaker 2>If our very mathematical measure of space and time is

756
00:38:46.840 --> 00:38:49.800
<v Speaker 2>distorted because of the specific empty neighborhood we happen to occupy,

757
00:38:50.119 --> 00:38:52.800
<v Speaker 2>what else about our human viewpoint, our scientific models, or

758
00:38:52.800 --> 00:38:56.239
<v Speaker 2>our daily lives is completely distorted simply because we assume

759
00:38:56.280 --> 00:38:58.480
<v Speaker 2>our local experience represents universal truth.
