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<v Speaker 1>Hi everyone.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Tony Edward, I'm Amanda were Croft, and we are

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<v Speaker 2>recording at the Salona Policy Summit. And joining us is

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<v Speaker 2>Anthony Scaramucci, who's the founder and managing partner at Skybridge.

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<v Speaker 2>Great to see Anthony.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to be here. Thank you guys for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Anthony, what's happening with this bear market? What do

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<v Speaker 2>you think we might see a recovery?

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm old school, I've been in the category that

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<v Speaker 1>this is a cyclical bear market, traditional to the four

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<v Speaker 1>year cycle of bitcoin, and you've just crossed the halfway

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<v Speaker 1>mark of the having and so you're on your way

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<v Speaker 1>to the back half of this thing. You typically don't

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<v Speaker 1>get any type of real recovery until the first quarter

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<v Speaker 1>of next year. And because we had this slightly accelerated,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think this was macro related to President Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and some of his tweeting and the tariffs, and then

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<v Speaker 1>obviously now there's a war. You know, although I would

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<v Speaker 1>say bitcoin has been fairly sticky during the war, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>over the last five or six weeks of the war,

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<v Speaker 1>you probably won't see a recovery in bitcoin until maybe

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<v Speaker 1>the first month of the last quarter. Right, So we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking October possibly November of this year, and so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>people will be very down on bitcoin, they'll be very

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<v Speaker 1>down on the all market, be very down on Solana,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course they'll be wrong because it's really just

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<v Speaker 1>more of a cyclical thing. But I think what people

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<v Speaker 1>are upset is that they thought, wow, we've got a

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<v Speaker 1>new administration as positive on crypto. We're basically in like

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<v Speaker 1>a jail house with Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we were talking before the show started. I mean, these

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<v Speaker 1>people were brutal, and so you were thinking that you

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<v Speaker 1>were going to get better regulation, You're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>better legislation, and you were going to get a ton

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<v Speaker 1>of buying as a result of the ETF activity. Slani

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<v Speaker 1>ETF a theory METF bitcoin ETF quite celebrated and you

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<v Speaker 1>didn't necessarily get that, but you did not get it.

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<v Speaker 1>Meaning you're still seeing a lot of bitcoin buying, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of boomers are buying bitcoin, but it's just not enough,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, because you got whales that are selling into

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<v Speaker 1>the You know, the ogs in this industry believe in

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<v Speaker 1>the four year cycle, and so what they do is

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<v Speaker 1>they fulfill the prophecy of the four year cycle. By

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<v Speaker 1>acting on the four year cycle and selling, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the whales were pumping lots of coins into the supply

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<v Speaker 1>at around one hundred thousand, and that's why we dropped

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<v Speaker 1>into the high sixties.

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<v Speaker 3>I know you had mentioned recently on a CNBC interview

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<v Speaker 3>about two months ago or so that the boomers are

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<v Speaker 3>hesitant to invest in bitcoin because they're more they're they're

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<v Speaker 3>the older generations are more trusting in assets like gold

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<v Speaker 3>and silver. Do you think legislation like Clarity will help

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin become a less volatile asset?

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<v Speaker 1>I do. I mean I applaud more organ Stanley for

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<v Speaker 1>making the decision to launch it's bitcoin ETF. They priced

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<v Speaker 1>it like fourteen basis points, which was a very competitive price,

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<v Speaker 1>and they've got a huge wealth management division, and so

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<v Speaker 1>if they even just move a half a percent or

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<v Speaker 1>one percent into bitcoin, it'll be very very good for

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<v Speaker 1>the market. And it's another sustainability issue. I think what's

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<v Speaker 1>completely off the table is the notion that bitcoin is

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<v Speaker 1>valueless and all that other stuff. The just the network

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<v Speaker 1>alone makes bitcoin very valuable. But if you don't get

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<v Speaker 1>the Clarity Act legislation passed, you're not going to get

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<v Speaker 1>the banks to really open up Sure Bank in New

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<v Speaker 1>York as an experimental program. I think so far now

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<v Speaker 1>has an experimental program, and there's probably others where you

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<v Speaker 1>can store or I'll hold your bitcoin and custody in

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<v Speaker 1>those places. But until the big money center banks. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>when my private banker calls me and says, yeah, move

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<v Speaker 1>all your bitcoin. You can move it here to our

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<v Speaker 1>bank and we'll give you yield on it, or you

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<v Speaker 1>can be and you can really borrow on it as

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<v Speaker 1>opposed to the twenty five percent LTV as some of

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<v Speaker 1>the big money center banks, you're not gonna see the

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<v Speaker 1>real full throat of adoption. So you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>I think the estimate was in November of twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 1>and I would have gotten this wrong, of course, because

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<v Speaker 1>if you had asked me this question, would the stable

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<v Speaker 1>Coin Genius Act the Clarity Act both be passed by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of twenty twenty five, I would have said yes.

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<v Speaker 1>But here we are about to start. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>in middle of April, heading into May. We don't have

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<v Speaker 1>Clarity passed.

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<v Speaker 2>So Anthony, the banks, while they are adopting this technology,

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<v Speaker 2>they're pushing back on the stable coin yield, which is

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<v Speaker 2>holding up the Clarity Act. How do you think that

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<v Speaker 2>gets resolved?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean, of course they are right. I mean so,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, this is a bigger meta question

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<v Speaker 1>for the United States, which is, if you pay the lobbyists,

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<v Speaker 1>the regulation will come p a simulant to what you're

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<v Speaker 1>paying the lobbyist. This is the whole Citizens United thing.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we've we've gone up eight x in the

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<v Speaker 1>last fifteen years in terms of campaign donations and donations

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<v Speaker 1>related to policy, and so you know, the banks have

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<v Speaker 1>a huge stronghold in the marketplace. The big irony is

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<v Speaker 1>talking about Elizabeth Warrens. She supposedly hated the big banks,

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<v Speaker 1>but now she's basically one of the big advocates for

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<v Speaker 1>the big banks. I mean she basically takes their memos

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<v Speaker 1>and puts them into her writings and her proposed legislation.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm of a you know, I respect Brian Armstrong

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<v Speaker 1>at coinbase, and I understand the position he's taking, and

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it may lead to us not getting it

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<v Speaker 1>done this term, and if the Congress switches, it'll probably

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<v Speaker 1>be two or three years before you get something done.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a little bit more proud to I probably would

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<v Speaker 1>have tried to get something done, and I would not

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<v Speaker 1>make the perfect deal the enemy of progress. And so

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<v Speaker 1>just quickly, the best example I give you that is

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<v Speaker 1>that Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not

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<v Speaker 1>want that to happen. He lost the lawsuits, so he

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<v Speaker 1>was forced to have it happen. But the way it

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<v Speaker 1>came about was ridiculous. It was just like punishing. You

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<v Speaker 1>had to put cash into the ETF, and then if

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<v Speaker 1>you wanted to get liquid, you know, get your money

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<v Speaker 1>out of it, you had to take cash out of it. It

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<v Speaker 1>was ridiculous. Paul Atkins had to rewrite the rules allow

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin to go in and bitcoin to come out. He

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<v Speaker 1>did the same thing on a theory and with the

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<v Speaker 1>staking couldn't stake it. It was ridiculous, you know. So

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<v Speaker 1>but we got it done, and so that was progress

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<v Speaker 1>on the way to perfection. I think if you put

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<v Speaker 1>the perfection before the progress, particularly in a place like Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>it gets gummed up and it may not happen. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I would prefer the progress over the perfection.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's me.

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<v Speaker 3>Has Crypto aligned with one party Nicole.

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street or you know, and Brian's sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>a mystical religious figure in our industry compared to me. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>but go ahead, keep going.

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<v Speaker 3>Has Crypto aligned with one party too heavily to pass

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<v Speaker 3>by a partisan legislation, Yeah, you.

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<v Speaker 1>Know, on the margin. Yes, But I think that was

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<v Speaker 1>out of necessity because they really didn't have a choice.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the Democrats decided that they were I mean

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<v Speaker 1>choke point two point zero. I mean I was in

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<v Speaker 1>the meetings. You could ask Novograts or Mark Cuban, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I was in the meetings with the White House people

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<v Speaker 1>in July of twenty twenty four, and then we set

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<v Speaker 1>up another meeting in Treasury and these guys were like

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<v Speaker 1>very antagonistic. So you know, if one party is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be that antagonistic to you, you're gonna be probably

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<v Speaker 1>one sided on the other side. Now, I would like

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<v Speaker 1>to see, and I think David Sachs has said this

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<v Speaker 1>more eloquently than me. I would like to see this

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<v Speaker 1>be postpartisan. You know, you know, whether or not we

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<v Speaker 1>have gold in our reserve, like our strategic reserves is postpartisan.

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<v Speaker 1>The answer is we have gold. So to all the

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<v Speaker 1>other countries, do we have oil as a strategic reserve?

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<v Speaker 1>The answer is yes. It's not a partisan debate. You

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<v Speaker 1>don't have Elizabeth Warren like saying can't have oil, it's bad,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know it's a horrific asset, and we don't

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<v Speaker 1>have that, so we have to we have to get

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<v Speaker 1>off of that. But I understand why I got that

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<v Speaker 1>gott in that position.

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<v Speaker 3>Sorry, coming off of strategic reserve. Do you think that

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<v Speaker 3>the government should hold bitcoin and strategic reserves?

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, but I think it's very hard to hold bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>in a strategic reserve if it's a partisan issue. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think if we can get this to be a transformative,

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<v Speaker 1>postpartisan what's right or wrong for the country, what's right

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<v Speaker 1>or wrong for the American tax payer, then the answer

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<v Speaker 1>is yes. But if you're in a position now where

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<v Speaker 1>lots of people in the Congress don't understand it, lots

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<v Speaker 1>of people really understand the future of money and where

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<v Speaker 1>it's going and what bitcoin represents in terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>operating layer of decentralized forward money, it's not going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>So I wouldn't push it. I'd be more or less

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<v Speaker 1>where they were on the Executive Order last year, where

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<v Speaker 1>they said we're gonna we win some in a lawsuit,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to keep it. We're not going to sell it.

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<v Speaker 1>What's ever on the balance sheet of the government right now,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not going to sell I mean, the Biden administration

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<v Speaker 1>was selling it right up to the end. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure if we've done an audit yet, so don't quote

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<v Speaker 1>me on this, but I sort of think we haven't

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<v Speaker 1>done an audit yet of how much Bitcoin the US

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<v Speaker 1>government actually holds. But my attitude is my mission would be,

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<v Speaker 1>let me rephrase that. My mission would be to explain

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<v Speaker 1>it to people so that they get it the way

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<v Speaker 1>the three of us get it, and then it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>have to be debated anymore. It just becomes one of

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<v Speaker 1>the things. You know, we have twenty eight different assets

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<v Speaker 1>in our strategic reserve. From a government balance sheet perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just goal and oil. There's rare earth minerals

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<v Speaker 1>in there. There's other commodities that we think are valuable

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<v Speaker 1>to the manufacturing process. There's medical equipment, medical supplies in there.

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<v Speaker 1>In the god forbid, we go through another pandemic, and

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<v Speaker 1>so those things. No one's sitting around saying, oh, geez,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, let's debate the partisan benefit or detriment to

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<v Speaker 1>having that stuff we got to get bitcoin there, but yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it it should should certainly be in the reserve.

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<v Speaker 2>How far away do you think we are at from

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<v Speaker 2>the consensus to have both parties in agreement that we

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<v Speaker 2>need to have this reserve? Its five ten years away.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's that long. I think again, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to make this a political podcast or anything

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<v Speaker 1>like that, but I think the president. Let me stipulate this,

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<v Speaker 1>and some of your viewers will be mad at me

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<v Speaker 1>for saying this, but I think it's a factual statement.

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<v Speaker 1>The president's polarized. Some people really like him and some

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<v Speaker 1>people really don't like them, and so his detractors, if

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<v Speaker 1>they don't like him, they're like, well, what does he like? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>he likes crypto. Okay, well he likes crypto. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna like crypto. And I think if you can get

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<v Speaker 1>a less polarizing person in a position like that, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you can move closer to something that's postpartisan. Was

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<v Speaker 1>that too political? I don't think so. Right, I would

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<v Speaker 1>give me a factual statement about where we are. You

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<v Speaker 1>already get a lot of heat anyway, so I don't

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<v Speaker 1>mind taking the heat. It's fine.

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<v Speaker 3>I think a lot of this has been politicized, including

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<v Speaker 3>the technology itself, which is unfortunate.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's just where things are, I mean, but that

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<v Speaker 1>should also make you very bullish. Can I explain to

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<v Speaker 1>you why? Because every headwind that you can imagine has

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<v Speaker 1>happened to this technology, Bitcoin solana, bureaucratic headwinds, lobbying headwinds,

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<v Speaker 1>banking association headwinds, the sclerosis of Wall Street not moving

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<v Speaker 1>quicker to adopt the technology or to adopt tokenization. Every

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<v Speaker 1>different part of this that you could imagine is blowing

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<v Speaker 1>in the face of these assets. And then look at

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<v Speaker 1>where these assets have gone over the last fifteen or

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen years. Now, yeah, granted they're off their cycle highs

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<v Speaker 1>and they're off their all time highs, but think about

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<v Speaker 1>where they are, think about the use cases, and think

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<v Speaker 1>about the exponential adoption and the expansion of the wild

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<v Speaker 1>It would be impossible to really study this and have

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<v Speaker 1>a four or five year frame of mind and not

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<v Speaker 1>be bullish. If you have a five minute frame of mind,

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<v Speaker 1>then your bearers. Because we're in a bear market, and

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<v Speaker 1>what happens to a bear market is people say this

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<v Speaker 1>asset's dead and they walk away from it. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>underneath it is the growth and the exponential activity and

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that it's just better technology.

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<v Speaker 2>So on that note, every major Wall Street firm is

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<v Speaker 2>tokenizing or has a tokenization strategy. It includes the stock

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<v Speaker 2>exchanges looking to go twenty four to seven? Anthon, you

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<v Speaker 2>have a plethora of experience in the markets. Where do

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<v Speaker 2>you see the twenty four to seven markets in five

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<v Speaker 2>years or so? And how does that change?

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<v Speaker 1>Want sooner than that? I mean, I would say in

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<v Speaker 1>the next two to three years you'll have twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>to seven stock and bond trading. I mean, the Nasdaq

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<v Speaker 1>announced the deal with Kraken where they're going to use

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<v Speaker 1>Kraken's rail system, start the process of tokenizing stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>let them trade twenty four to seven. We have the

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<v Speaker 1>capability to do that. I would make the argument, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when I was a kid in the industry, we were

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<v Speaker 1>literally T plus five. It took five days for a

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<v Speaker 1>stock that you bought to land in your account. Now

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<v Speaker 1>we're T plus one. Everybody knows that's listening into this. Generally,

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<v Speaker 1>the people listening in are quite sophisticated. They know you

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<v Speaker 1>could do it in T plus an hour through the blockchain,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the question is whether that be better for

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<v Speaker 1>us or worse for us, And I think it'd be

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<v Speaker 1>better because when you have twenty four hour liquidity or

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<v Speaker 1>twenty four hour activity, it changes your risk profile. Like

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<v Speaker 1>if you've got a war going on, or you don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if the straight of war moves is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be open or not open, and you're looking to get

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<v Speaker 1>out of something, Well, guess what's open. The crypto markets

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<v Speaker 1>are open, so you know, Okay, that's where my source

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<v Speaker 1>of liquidity is going to be in the overnight markets.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you had everything overnight, then you'd have massive

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<v Speaker 1>improvement in liquidity. So I think would also change the

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<v Speaker 1>profile and perspective of people. So I generally think I

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<v Speaker 1>generally like it. I think it happens in the next

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<v Speaker 1>two to three years. How's Skybridge preparing for that? Is

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<v Speaker 1>it too early for you, guys?

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<v Speaker 2>Or will you have international teams or AI helping you

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<v Speaker 2>trade twenty four to seven.

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<v Speaker 1>I think anybody that's not using AARI right now is

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<v Speaker 1>missing the boat. We use AI. We're long term investors

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<v Speaker 1>at Skybridge, so we don't really have international teams. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're reasonably well positioned. I think my thing at

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<v Speaker 1>Skybridge I have to almost be like a shrink or

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<v Speaker 1>a life coach for some of my investors. Stuff. Calm down.

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<v Speaker 1>I know bitcoin went from from here to one to

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six and it's now in the high sixties, low seventies,

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<v Speaker 1>and everyone's upset. Got the hair on fire. You can

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<v Speaker 1>take this to the bank. Everybody is a long term

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<v Speaker 1>investor until they have short term losses. Admit they have

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<v Speaker 1>short term losses. They go crazy, They run around and

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<v Speaker 1>yell at everybody, and then they blame you. But if

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<v Speaker 1>you just calm down and you see the super cycle

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<v Speaker 1>that we see, you're going to be incredibly well rewarded

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<v Speaker 1>in the future. So my job relieves just keep clients

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<v Speaker 1>clock calm at this moment.

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<v Speaker 2>One more question for I let you go. You've got

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<v Speaker 2>Skybridge Crypto investment. Any changes to your portfolio. I know

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<v Speaker 2>you've been bullish on bitcoin, Avax, things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>So we own Solana, we own Avax, I own Avalanche,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry, the Treasury, you know, the Avax one. We

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<v Speaker 1>own some Forward which is a salon of Treasury, as

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<v Speaker 1>well as Solana. We have some STRC, which is sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the ill bir bearing securities coming out of strategy

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<v Speaker 1>obviously have a very large position in bitcoin, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you know, listen, I'm long term bullish on this stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not a great environment for it. But again, if

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<v Speaker 1>you looked at where we were five years ago to

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<v Speaker 1>where we are today, I love where we are. Oh.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't believe the growth in this industry, and so

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<v Speaker 1>I just believe that if we're sitting here, if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>lucky enough be sitting here with you guys, five years

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<v Speaker 1>from now, I think we'll look back and say, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>those prices in twenty twenty six. I'm not sure why

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<v Speaker 1>people were so negative given where we are today in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty one.

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<v Speaker 2>All is a pleasure, Anthony, Thank you so much. All right,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you guys, thanks for happening. This episode is brought

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for tuning in. Please hit the

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<v Speaker 2>like button subscribe if you haven't as yet. If you're

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much,