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Speaker 1: All right, Welcome in. It's Monday morning time for another week.

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We kick off a week, another week with total basis

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right here on wager Talk TV. I've got Brian Leonard,

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Tokyo branded. This is your go to show for Major

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League Baseball free picks on the wager Talk YouTube channel.

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We're probably going to get to all the games today.

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It's the abbreviated Monday slate, so I'll go around the horn.

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Welcome in, Brian Leonard. How was your weekend and how

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are you feeling going into the new week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, thing's been going pretty well. We did lose that

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five percent play on the Mets again Pittsburgh on what

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Thursday or probably or something, so that was a donner.

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But how about those Mets. I think I set something

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out that somebody tweeted that was the biggest run disparency

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in a three game series in the history of baseball

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or something. It was just crazy. Pittsburgh's averaging ten runs

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a game. The Mets, we thought once they want to

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in a row and they may turn it around. Obviously

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they didn't. They've had team meetings, they're doing a lot

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of other stuff, and this team right now, I don't

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want any part of them the way they're playing right now,

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and it's unfortunate because they're one of the most talented

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teams in baseball.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Mets are horrible right now. I mean when

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you get swept by the Pirates and the run discrepancy

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is thirty four to four, I think it was something

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like that. I don't know if it was thirty four.

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I know the Mets only scored four though. Wow, that's

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pretty bad. They're in a bad place right now. I'm

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in a good place. I went five to oh yesterday,

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so I'm pretty happy about that. Up to plus eighty

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in twenty twenty five to be number one. So I

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finally passed Ben for number one.

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Speaker 1: So I'm I think your wire came out again. Tokyo

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branded good at me. Good to take all those winnings

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and get a new wife.

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Speaker 3: Yet it doesn't plug in properly. Yeah, I'm kind of

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like it's like, you know in the eighties when you

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had cable TV and you had to like stick a

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hanger on your TV to get the cable. But anyways,

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but yeah, so, uh, that's good. I passed Ben for

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number one, so I'm pretty happy about that. So not

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a lot to like today for me though, I have

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one play out, but I don't know if I'm gonna

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have two plays out today. But I will give you

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my two cents on on all the games that are

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happening today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're they're the people are talking about the Mets

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and Juan Soto in the chat. I had a good

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weekend as well. When I'm seven and one of my

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last eight MLB plays, So I'm coming for you TV.

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I'll have another one today, I want to. So I

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think the comment in the chat, Adam, think you could

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give us more notice one hour less, one hour or

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less before game time. I have to imagine that they're

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referring to minor league baseball plays, and the answer is, unfortunately,

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most more often than not, no, they're gonna be like

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one hour before the game goes off. The reason being,

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every one of the plays I make in minor league baseball,

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I need to see the lineups because lineup shuffling is

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the way you find value in minor league baseball. So

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very very difficult to release minor league baseball early. It

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is what it is like. You know, I understand that

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everyone's gonna get be able to get down on that,

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and that's why I only include them on all access.

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I never sell them individually. And if you can't get

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them in, I would suggest just just going MLB instead

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of the all access because yeah, they're gonna come out

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an hour before. However, if you can get them down,

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probably gonna win long term on those. And they have

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been very, very hot the last sort of few weeks.

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So anyway, Brian, I'll give you a crack at it.

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Do you have this one. I've got the rally cap

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going still.

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Speaker 2: I am guessing Hartford, but I don't know what their

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nickname is.

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Speaker 1: Now that is This would be the Harrisburg Senators. This

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would be the Double A affiliate for the Washington Nationals.

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And the one thing I remember about going to this

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park was I went with none other than Dwayne Bryant

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and him and I ate hot dogs for about three

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innings because they had one of the best hot dog

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stands I've ever been to at any ballpark any level. Phenomenal.

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It was like a local Harrisburg like joint that's been

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there for like one hundred years. They have a place

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in the ballpark. We spent easily three innings, like getting seconds.

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I think I had like four hot dogs more hot

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dogs than I'm not a hot dog guy, Brian, more

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than I eat in an entire year. So that's that's

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my memory of FNB Field, which is also on an

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island in the middle of Susquehanna River in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

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Another fun fact. All right, we've got the we've got

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the people. It's a it's a slow Monday morning, so

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giving a chance for everyone to get in. We've only

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got eight games. We're probably going to get to most

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of them, so let's start maybe just we may may

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just be able to go in order here until someone

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asked the question, let's head to the City of Brotherly Love,

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where the Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Diego San

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Diego Padres. It looks like Zach Wheeler against a guy

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and in Matt Waldron that's been down at Triple A

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for a while, was probably supposed to be in this

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rotation at one point. Start us off, Brian Leonard. Pretty

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big number here, Phillies well over a two dollars favorite

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against the Padres.

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Speaker 2: What do you see there is some other Let me

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get the weather out of the way before we get started.

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There's three games that have weither concerns. One, if I'm

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being in the Philadelphia game, the game time is a

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six thirty and from that time on anywhere from thirty

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four to forty four reign all through the night. Pittsburgh's

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even worse there. They go from fifty three percent at

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eleven PM if it goes extra innings, but at game

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time sixty six percent at seven, seventy nine percent of eight,

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sixty eight at nine. So that might be a game

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that you have some problems with.

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Speaker 1: So, as we.

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Speaker 2: Talked before, if you're playing starters, makes if you and

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you've got really good starter against a week one, make

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sure he's not going to be uh sitting through a

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long rain delay. And then finally down in Tampa they

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have rain. It should be cleared out pretty much by

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nine pm, but the game starts it's seven thirty, so

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they may be delayed at the beginning. Getting back to

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today's games, and we are looking at as you mentioned

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Waldron against Wheeler. Waldron's the knuckleball pitcher for the Padres.

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Speaker 1: I like him.

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Speaker 2: Uh. He has been hurt, he has been out of

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the lineup all season long, but he's getting a chance

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to play here. Unfortunately, he's going up against Wheeler, one

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of the best pitchers in Major Leage League baseball. Waldron's

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usually a guy tried to find value on and if

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you're looking at this game at all, you'd have to

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find the value on the padres because of the line

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as you mentioned it Waldron last year. In fact, let's

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just look his two seasons of Major league baseball four

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point seven to nine ERA, but as expected dras five

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or excuse me, four point one to one. His whip

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is one point two six. He's very good in hard

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hit rate, barrel rate keeping him off balance, the extensions,

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very good. His walk rates in the seventy fifth percent talent,

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and he walks, you know, six point five percent of

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his batter as he faces, and league average is eight

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point four. He doesn't get many people to chase, and

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the whip race not good. And obviously, being a knuckleball pitcher,

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his fastball velocy is only in the seventh percent out.

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He does throw the knuckleball thirty eight percent of the

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time in his career. We'll see if it's adjusted anything

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now with the new season. But the one thing I

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do like is he doesn't throw us fastball very much,

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only eighteen percent, so He's got five pitches to throw

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at you, and he does keep you off balanced. And

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that's a pretty good underdog when you get a look

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at something like that going against Zach Wheeler. Zach Wheeler

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is excellent in everything excepha ground bowl array he does.

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He's only in the forty six percent tile than that.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: He too has six pitches, but his fourth same is

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his main pitch, forty one percent. Normally, I don't like

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to play pitchers who throw more fastballs by far than

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anything else, but he's one of those guys that can

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get it done. It's fast of all velot season, the

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seventy seventh percentile two point four five ERA two point

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three four expected zero point nine two whip his strike

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gout manusch Walker Ray Show. His strike out rate right

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now is at thirty two point nine. He's never been

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over thirty before in his career. And yet his walk

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percentage is the same, basically the same as last year

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a six point five so strike got minus walk percentage

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of twenty six point four. That's elite. And we're getting

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this game with San Diego and Philadelphia possibly a little

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bit of a look towards the under As I mentioned

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Waldron doesn't give up a lot of hard hit balls

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Philadelphia with the range situation. That's the one concern I

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would have about playing Wheeler if he does have a

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long rain delay. I'm more worried about it in the

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Pittsburgh game than this one. But between these two, I

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think there's a little bit of value on San Diego.

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But first game back for Waldron, don't know how long

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it's going to go, so slightly to the under in

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this one for me.

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Speaker 3: So looking at this, yeah, I have Wheeler ranked number

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six in all of Major League Baseball two hundred and

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fifty starters, so he's pretty good, and he has decent

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stats against San Diego, not great, but decent. So first

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inkling would be to take the Phillies here, But the

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problem is the Padres have a much better bullpen. The

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Phillies bullpen is performing terribly right now, and they're not

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really hitting that well either current form. They have tons

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of talent. The thing. The weird thing is San Diego

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has tons of talent too, so you would expect both

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of these teams to be able to put up tons

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of runs, but they're both really underperforming. In a little

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bit of a lull right now for both of these

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teams offensively, so I wouldn't argue with Brian's under I

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would really like to back Wheeler here, but I can't

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with that horrible bullpen and horrible hitting currently, so I

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just can't back them right now, and I certainly am

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not gonna bet against Wheeler. So kind of stuck in

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the mud on this one.

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Speaker 1: So I guess important to note that Waldron hasn't really

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been hurt like they did. So his rehab, which I

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followed pretty closely in the minors, like it started me fifteen,

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so he actually ran he ran out of rehab time

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back in early June, and then they just optioned him

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to Triple A because which was really surprising to me

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because I looked at the Padres rotation and I'm like,

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you know, you've got Randy Vasquez in there. I think

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it was like Steven Kolek, like these are guys that

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I felt like were just placeholders, and so that was

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very interesting to me that back in early June, I

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believe June fourth was when he sort of ran out

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of rehab time. They said, no, you're gonna, You're gonna,

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We're just gonna option you to Triple A. So that

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that was you know, I was, like I said, I

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was surprised with that because coming into the season, I

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felt like he was supposed to be a guy that

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was in this rotation. He's been okay in June for

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like again, like I watched two of his starts completely.

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One he looked phenomenal, one he looked terrible. So you know,

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he's kind of been down at Triple A. Now lengthwise,

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he's gonna go his he'll go the full tilt right

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like he's been throwing five innings five and two thirds.

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Like he'll have his full pitch count a lot. Man.

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The question is how effective is he going to be,

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Because over the course of this past month, like I said,

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there's been starts where he's been very effective and starts

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where he's gotten blown up by a Triple A lineup.

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Some of that speaks to, you know, if that pitch

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is working or not right Brian, like's, if he's got

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it going, it can be tough. If not, he can

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get hit. So for that reason, it makes it like

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I'd love to I really would have loved to like

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come on and said, yeah, like I've got good info

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on Waldron. This is a good spot to take like

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a shot with the padres on the road, but I

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just don't trust him. Has been way too inconsistent the

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last month and I can't roll with that. Go ahead, Yeah,

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a few things.

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Speaker 2: First of all, knuckleball pitchers like the wind to be

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blowing towards them, and really there's no wind anywhere all.

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There's no double digit wins anywhere. That may hurt him

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right now. If you take a look at the Fangrass page,

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they do an extra job at Roster Resource Rocks rest

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resource over there. They really only have four starters listed

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for the potters right now because Darbish is still coming back,

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Michael King's injured, Musgrove probably out for the season, and

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Ryan Berger got a four arm contusion last time. So

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they really don't know what they're gonna do. And as

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you mentioned, Kolic has faded a little bit. Randy Vasquez

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pitching better than a lot of people thought, but he's

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not a guy you really wanted in your rotation. Also,

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from a bullpen standpoint, Suarez, Adam and morjarn all pitched

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each of the last two days, so I doubt any

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of those will be used tonight. Whereas Philadelphia is pretty

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good set up on their bullpen. So even though TV

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doesn't like the Philadelphia bullpen, I think they're coming around now.

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With the two guys they've got in the back of

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the bullpen, they're tending to like them. Although Kirkering the

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other day did get hit when he went in the

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eighth in I believe, but other than they pitched pretty

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but good now. So the bullpen edge probably is going

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to be with Philadelphia today just because of the usage

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the podres have had. But other than that, this is

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probably the game I'm going to be setting out TV.

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Speaker 1: Do you want to the people in the chat are

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really asking about Wheeler strikeouts? Did you have like a

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lean there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I put it up, I have him, I have

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him projected at six point one. Mac crinson asked me

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for that.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, beautiful. All right, let's we'll continue on. We're

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probably gonna get to most of them today, but I'll

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go to I'll go to a chat question because I

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haven't seen clock Cage n yet. So thank you for joining.

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If this is your first time commenting, we appreciate it,

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and as always like it. Subscribe, give us those likes,

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give us those subscriptions. Kelly told me we need to

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get more subscriptions, So I'm out here begging. We need

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the subscriptions. I think it's free, so like subscri feel

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free to drop a comment on the on demand and

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then of course pop in live and we'll address your

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stuff in real time. So I took a lot. I

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split my MLB place yesterday. I won with the Blue Jays,

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I lost with the A's who just got obliterated by

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the Yankees. They now head to the Sunshine State to

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kick off a series with the Tampa Bay Rays. Steinbrennerfield

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smaller ballpark. I believe this will be the A's first

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time there. Clak Cage wants to know about the under Brian,

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Do you think that's it's the A's going from one

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minor league ballpark to another. Do you think that the

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smaller ballpark favors them or hurts them here?

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Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at the weather report here

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in Tampa, and and I did say that they have

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some concerns. The wind's blowing out, but only five miles

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per hour. We're looking at weather about seventy eight to

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eighty degrees, so that'll be fine, but there is some

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precipitation there. And I finally pronounced it correctly, But yeah,

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it's they've got actually the A's. I believe they go

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to Colorado, we think next. So they've got a good

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week for their hitters. If you play fantasy baseball, you

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want to have some ass in your lineup because they

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are playing in two really good hitters parks, either that

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or going back to you know, Sacramento, which is a

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good hitters park for the most part, although it hasn't

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been lately. But yeah, the A's coming in with Jacob

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Lopez going, and he's a guy I if you've watched

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the show every day, you know how much I liked

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him before he really got hot the last few starts

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because of a strekeout to walk ratio. He's currently at

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twenty point zero strekout to walk ratio and you rarely

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find young guys with no name like that in that situation.

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Three point five six cra three point three two expected

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one point three to zero whip. He is a fly

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ball pitcher, no doubt about it. His ground ball percentage

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is in the first percentile, basketball velocity in the eighth percentile,

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but he's been doing very well so far this year.

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Ninety third percentile extension. This is a guy to take

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a look at his split so far this season. This

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home games two point seven to four, ERA, road games

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four point five. His whip as much higher on the

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roads as well, So he's pitched very well in West Sacramento,

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not as well on the road. He's ticking on Drew Rasmussen,

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who has been one of the most consistent pitchers in

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baseball this year. In fact, I took them talk about

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this Saturday. His career in six seasons, he's got a

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two point eight five ERA one point zero six whip.

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He's had problems with injuries, but when he's healthy, he's

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a damn good pitcher. Expected the RA this year three

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point four to nine, so he's been a little bit

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lucky in that regard, but he's been very good. And

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as opposed to his opposition on the Mountain Lopez, he's

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in the eightieth percentile of the ground ball percent So he's

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a guy with a strikeout to walk ratio of sixteen

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point one, which is slightly better than average, but he's

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able to get those ground balls and that definitely helps. Here.

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We're looking at a current line right now of excuse me,

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Tampa Bay is basically about a one' sixty five was

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sixty seven favorite, and we're looking at a total of eight.

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That number is kind of low if you're taking a

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look at this Tampa Bay ball Park here, But if

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these two pitchers pitch like they have been lately, it's

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probably correct. It open eight and a half and it

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has been bad down to eight. So the guys you

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bet at early do like theander here. I think I think,

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oh glint, excuse me, Sacramento has a little bit of

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value in the betting line. But I'm not going to

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go against Rasmussen because he's been so good and I'll

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be passing this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, guys, before I get to my analysis, do me

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00:19:08,039 --> 00:19:11,079
a favor, and after the show, go to the replay,

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click the like and leave a comment, even if it's

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00:19:13,799 --> 00:19:16,720
just a hey, great show, guys. It helps us out

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00:19:16,759 --> 00:19:18,920
a lot, and it shows Wager Talk that you appreciate

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00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,319
our show, which goes a long way for us and

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00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,519
our reputations. So would appreciate that. I have a special

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00:19:25,519 --> 00:19:28,319
out right now the rest of twenty twenty five for

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00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,599
under three dollars a day, so all of our pages

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00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,519
are down there. I'm sure Brian and Adam. Both have

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00:19:33,599 --> 00:19:36,440
specials too, so check our specials out when you have

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00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,319
a chance. And we all put free plays up at

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00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,599
those pages as well, so there's value for going to

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check our pages out. So Rasmussen I like him a lot,

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and actually I agree with everything Brian said. We measure

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our stats differently, but we get to the same conclusions.

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So I measure walks in a little different way than

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Brian does I, but we get to the same conclusion.

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Both of these guys are have great co and they

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don't walk people very much. Their strikeout to ball ratio

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is great. Lopez has been great. He's a young guy,

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but he's been great. Let's see one earned run in

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his last four starts. I'd say that's pretty great. And

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Rasmusen had a stretch where he went four starts with

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no earned runs. He had one bad game against the Mets,

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but besides that, he's given up four earned runs in

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six starts. I mean he's been great. So let's take

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a look at the hitting. Tampa Bay has been pretty

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hot and both bullpens are not really performing well right now.

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If anything, I would like to attack the A's hitting

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because they've been a little cold at the plate right now.

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They do have good batters like Rooker, a few other guys.

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I keep forgetting that that young guy's name who's having

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a great season for the A's, but they're slamming. They

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have the potential to slam it pretty good, but they're

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not doing it right now. So if anything, I would

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take Rasmussen's talent and put that against the cold bats

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of the A's and maybe take a first five team

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total under for the A's. I think that I'm gonna

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make that my parlay leg A's team total first five

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00:21:16,319 --> 00:21:18,160
under one and a half. Now, under one and a

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00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,200
half can be risky propositions in MLB because these are

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the best. These are the best. These are the best

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five hundred baseball players in the world, so holding them

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to less than two runs in five innings is tough.

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But I think Raspusen can do it at home. Unfortunately,

396
00:21:36,839 --> 00:21:38,359
I don't know the odds for that. That's going to

397
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be my first leg of the parlay.

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Speaker 2: You got it, Brian, Yeah, it's basically minus one twenty

399
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:44,519
onto the under.

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00:21:44,839 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 3: Wow, minus one twenty for under one and a half.

401
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,880
Whoa dancing dancing on the edge. But I like it.

402
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:52,519
I like it.

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00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Rasmussen can have pretty nasty stuff. I

404
00:21:57,319 --> 00:22:00,319
The only issue I have with that really is that

405
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,880
the eight the A's set up better against right handed pitching.

406
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,839
So like this lineup I feel like gives you a

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00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,759
it's a more favorable one to nine against right handed

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00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:14,079
pitching as opposed to left handed pitching. That being said,

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I mean, I said I had the A's yesterday plus

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one and a half. They couldn't hit Marcus Stroman. I

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00:22:19,519 --> 00:22:22,079
mean that was a that was a deceiving five runs

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for them yesterday because they got dominated by Marcus Stroman,

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who hasn't pitched in you know, however long. So your

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bet would have hit in that game yesterday Tokyo Brand

415
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and they had one run at the end of the

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fifth inning. They didn't start scoring until the game was

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already over. So and it really just it's what I've

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said about the A's this whole time. Young team they're

419
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going to You're gonna have stretches where they have some juice.

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Everything's clicking, and it almost seems to snowball, kind of

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like I said, watch for the Marlins. If they win one,

422
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they might win a few in a row. Look at

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what they did last week. Right, The A's are very

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similar where they they they'll kind of catch lightning in

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a bottle for a little bit, but then it's just

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it's you'll have the next game where they're horrible. They

427
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might be terrible for a week. And it just seems

428
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to be how when you have this collection of young

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players that are all at the big league level at

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the same time getting up to the big league level

431
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at the same time, I feel like you see that

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00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,119
it's not just with this team. So yeah, I don't

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I don't know how how badly I want to jump

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in with the A's now off of that performance yesterday,

435
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having to go down to Florida, I like Lopez, wanted

436
00:23:33,839 --> 00:23:35,440
to make a case for them plus one and a half,

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but I'm kind of priced out at minus one forty.

438
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,599
What needed that to be about twenty five twenty to

439
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,240
twenty five cents cheaper so Lean A's, But have my reservations,

440
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:44,880
go ahead.

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00:23:44,599 --> 00:23:50,759
Speaker 2: Brian, Yeah, Brandon mentioned Jacob Wilson, the shortstop for the A's.

442
00:23:50,799 --> 00:23:53,680
He took a foul ball I believe, off his leg

443
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:58,960
yesterday and had to leave the game early. So there

444
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,640
there there are no hurry to win games in Sacramento

445
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and they're on the road here. It would not surprise

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me if they give them the day off. And if

447
00:24:08,559 --> 00:24:11,920
there is any team that has a shortage of bench players,

448
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:16,759
quality hit betteris from the bench positions. It's the Oakland A's,

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00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,920
the A's, Sacramento, whatever their bench is. Willie mc iver,

450
00:24:22,039 --> 00:24:25,920
Geoe O'shella, Max Suliman, and JJ Bluday. I don't want

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any of those guys on my team, So one of

452
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,720
them is gonna have to come in and replace. It's

453
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:36,960
probably ge O'shella or Sloman coming in. And Geo's had

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00:24:37,039 --> 00:24:40,000
some bright spots in his past, but right now, when

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you're sitting the bench in Oakland or for the A's,

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00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,960
that's not a position a lot of people want to

457
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,799
be in. So that's a big drop off.

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00:24:48,839 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: If Wilson doesn't start me and they're rolling with a

459
00:24:52,079 --> 00:24:55,119
they're rolling with a guy starting every day that that's

460
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,160
out there for defense, Like Denzel Clark's a triple A bat,

461
00:24:58,279 --> 00:25:00,799
like he's not a He's not a MA major league hitter,

462
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,920
at least not at this point. So you take Jacob

463
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,680
Wilson onto that lineup, and suddenly that Tokyo Brandon's first

464
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,559
five under looks that much better because he is the

465
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:13,240
best hitter on that team in my opinion. And yeah,

466
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,599
and he's had a lower body injuries before too, so Brian,

467
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,200
Brian Leonard might be onto something. You might see Jacob

468
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,039
Wilson out of the lineup today. I wouldn't be.

469
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 3: Saying they're asking me to change my leg because their

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00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,680
books don't have first five team totals.

471
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Speaker 2: What books don't have to say with only nine games

472
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:30,039
and a couple of them my good.

473
00:25:30,279 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, here's the thing.

474
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 3: If you have team totals in Major League Baseball, if

475
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,039
your book doesn't, yeah.

476
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 1: But some if you're if you're playing on So here's

477
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,680
the thing TV. A lot of people in the States

478
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,240
are still playing. They'll they'll still play with locals, they'll

479
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,839
still play on PPH sites. They may not let you

480
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,119
parlay that I would I would say, listen, we're gonna

481
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,960
keep it for the parlay. But I think you can

482
00:25:53,079 --> 00:25:56,640
just go first five under if you can't get the

483
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,359
team total. I don't hate a first five under. Brian

484
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,000
talked about one of the redeeming qualities of Lopez. I

485
00:26:02,039 --> 00:26:04,440
agree with those, So maybe you just go first five

486
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:05,440
under if you can't show that.

487
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,519
Speaker 3: Sure, it's a little more risky because Tampa's bats are

488
00:26:08,519 --> 00:26:12,119
hotter than Oakland's. But uh yeah, okay, do the first

489
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,440
five under four. I believe it is.

490
00:26:15,839 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: Someone said, Adam, why do you look so mad? I'm

491
00:26:18,519 --> 00:26:20,160
actually not that at all. Right now. I had a

492
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,559
great I've had a great run. This is the final

493
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,519
day of June. June will end up being my best

494
00:26:24,519 --> 00:26:27,039
month of twenty twenty five so far. That that's just

495
00:26:27,079 --> 00:26:29,839
my thinking face. I was over here looking up Jacob

496
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,799
Lopez trying to trying to crunch numbers. So that's that

497
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,720
was just my deep, deep in thought base right there.

498
00:26:37,039 --> 00:26:37,759
But we'll go to Hose.

499
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 3: Adam is the serious guy of US three.

500
00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:45,799
Speaker 1: Jose. We'll go to Jose Perez and a couple of

501
00:26:45,799 --> 00:26:48,680
others in the chat are are asking about this game

502
00:26:50,039 --> 00:26:53,799
Mariners Royals. I watched for what For one reason or another,

503
00:26:53,839 --> 00:26:56,039
I feel like I watched every pitch of that Dodgers

504
00:26:56,119 --> 00:27:00,000
Royals series this weekend. Had had the Royals on Saturday.

505
00:27:00,039 --> 00:27:03,680
It's a nice winner right there for me. Now it

506
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,079
is they're going to head out to Seattle. Brian Leonard,

507
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,880
we've talked about the Mariners and how he liked them

508
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,000
on the road better because of where they're priced and

509
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,599
their smaller ballpark. Were you surprised when you saw this

510
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,960
number where it was like, man, the Mariners are getting

511
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:21,680
a lot of love, and now they're back at home

512
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,559
where it's a little harder to hit the ball out.

513
00:27:24,799 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 2: I don't know if Seattle's getting the love or Case

514
00:27:28,079 --> 00:27:31,039
is getting the hate because Kansas City right now, that

515
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:36,000
offense is really struggling. Other than Ben Attendee, who for

516
00:27:36,039 --> 00:27:38,400
some reason knows how to hit for power this year,

517
00:27:39,039 --> 00:27:41,279
the rest of the guys are struggling. You come into

518
00:27:41,319 --> 00:27:43,200
the season, you thought the offense is going to be

519
00:27:43,279 --> 00:27:47,839
pretty decent. Obviously, wait, coming off a possible MVP season

520
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,839
last year, he hasn't been as good. The first baseman

521
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,039
hasn't been as good. The guy they brought up, the

522
00:27:54,079 --> 00:27:57,880
young guy that today's the first basement that has played

523
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,920
him in the outfield. Other than a game where he

524
00:28:01,559 --> 00:28:03,240
hit a home run, he's done nothing. I think he's

525
00:28:03,279 --> 00:28:05,279
got three hits the entire time he's been up there.

526
00:28:05,319 --> 00:28:10,920
So they've been very disappointing offensively. And this is traditionally

527
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,839
a good pitcher's park. I trust Waka Walka pitches in

528
00:28:14,839 --> 00:28:16,640
these kind of places all the time. In Kansas City

529
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,839
he's very good. In Seattle, he should be very good.

530
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,319
If I knew that George Kirby was back one hundred

531
00:28:23,319 --> 00:28:26,000
percent or at least ninety percent, I would play this

532
00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:29,240
game under, even though it's seven and seven and a half.

533
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,160
That would be the only way I would look. Problem

534
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,160
is Kirby still he will come out with the one

535
00:28:34,279 --> 00:28:37,319
game and have thirteen strikeouts. The next game he comes

536
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,680
out and he gets hit, so he's still struggling with

537
00:28:40,759 --> 00:28:44,000
his control, and that is what comes last when you

538
00:28:44,079 --> 00:28:47,440
come back from these arm injuries and shoulder injuries. So

539
00:28:48,319 --> 00:28:50,440
going against Kansas City, it's going to make him look

540
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,319
a lot better. If I had to play this, I

541
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:57,079
played the under, but it doesn't take much to push

542
00:28:57,119 --> 00:29:00,960
a game over seven. Luckily there's still plenty of seven

543
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,920
and a half. Minds went twenties out there for you,

544
00:29:03,119 --> 00:29:05,640
So that would be my look in this one is

545
00:29:06,599 --> 00:29:08,839
I prefer walk a little bit, but I don't like

546
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,599
that Kansas City offense and Seattle right now, as you mentioned,

547
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,079
not hitting nearly as well at home.

548
00:29:17,759 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 3: Again, I agree with Brian. I got Waka ranked a

549
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:24,119
little higher than Kirby, but just barely. And I got

550
00:29:24,119 --> 00:29:27,680
the Royals bullpen ranked better than Seattle, and Seattle's kind

551
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,519
of known for their good pitching. Their bullpens a little

552
00:29:30,559 --> 00:29:34,000
bit underperforming these days, but their hitting is a lot

553
00:29:34,039 --> 00:29:38,799
better than the Royals, especially current form. They got a

554
00:29:38,799 --> 00:29:43,519
lot more talent in my opinion. And we got two

555
00:29:43,599 --> 00:29:46,839
pitchers here who have great command again and two guys

556
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:53,279
who don't really walk very very many compared to their strikeouts.

557
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:58,279
The stat that I use for this is I divide

558
00:29:58,319 --> 00:30:02,319
the walks by the strikeouts and get a percentage, so twenty.

559
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:07,240
Usually pitchers are about thirty to forty percent the amount

560
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,759
of walks they have compared to their strikeouts. Both of

561
00:30:09,799 --> 00:30:13,079
these guys are less than twenty five or well, Waka's

562
00:30:13,079 --> 00:30:17,160
twenty seven, Kirby's twenty three. So really good command for

563
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:21,079
these guys. So if anything, I would think under for this.

564
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,319
I did say something bad about Seattle's bullpen, but they're

565
00:30:27,359 --> 00:30:31,359
not that bad so and these Royals can't hit anything

566
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:36,000
right now anything, So yeah, I would think under would

567
00:30:36,039 --> 00:30:39,400
be the only way to go here. I'd like to

568
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,880
take the Royals here if they hit a little bit better,

569
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:44,720
but I got them ranked twenty three out of thirty

570
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,279
teams right now they're just not hitting. So yeah, under

571
00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:49,799
would be the only way I would go here, but

572
00:30:49,839 --> 00:30:50,799
I haven't met it yet.

573
00:30:53,839 --> 00:30:58,119
Speaker 1: The George Kirby thing is puzzling because he came out

574
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,680
and was so good in that one start against the Angels,

575
00:31:01,799 --> 00:31:06,319
fourteen strikeouts as dominant of a George Kirby performances are

576
00:31:06,319 --> 00:31:09,039
gonna find, and then he kind of like, you know,

577
00:31:09,119 --> 00:31:12,279
I don't think he's pitched bad, but the concern is

578
00:31:12,319 --> 00:31:16,519
like the since that start, five strikeouts, three strikeouts, three strikeouts,

579
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,960
and for me, like when George Kirby is is George Kirby.

580
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,640
He's getting a lot of swing and miss. He's he's seven, eight,

581
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:28,119
nine strikeouts in a start, and so that would suggest

582
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,240
in my opinion that he's still kind of like working

583
00:31:31,279 --> 00:31:34,279
his way back, struggling with command, because remember command is

584
00:31:34,319 --> 00:31:37,200
not just walking people like you can miss out over

585
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,319
the plate the same way guys miss out of the zone.

586
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,039
So if you see a guy that's typically a strikeout

587
00:31:43,039 --> 00:31:46,480
guy and they're not getting the strikeouts, it's that's a

588
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,880
command issue too, because it probably means they're catching too

589
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,519
much of the plate now doesn't matter against this Royals

590
00:31:51,559 --> 00:31:55,119
lineup right now. Maybe not because they're not hitting, but

591
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,119
you know, I still think. I still think they have.

592
00:31:59,359 --> 00:32:01,640
You know, they had a somewhat of a breakout. I

593
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,519
guess on Saturday, scored a bunch of runs on Saturday.

594
00:32:04,559 --> 00:32:10,519
That was the Otani Kaspirius start. So my gut tells

595
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:13,440
me that the Mariners are overpriced here I agree with.

596
00:32:13,559 --> 00:32:17,279
I think Tokyo Brandon mentioned their bullpen. I don't have

597
00:32:17,359 --> 00:32:19,319
the numbers to back it up in front of me

598
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,759
right now, but I've watched a ton of Mariners baseball

599
00:32:21,799 --> 00:32:24,759
this year. It definitely seems like their bullpen is not

600
00:32:24,839 --> 00:32:27,160
as daunting as it was the last couple of years,

601
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,240
where like those top guys get in and I don't

602
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,359
think it's I feel like, you go back to the

603
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,680
last couple of years, Mariners get to the eighth inning

604
00:32:34,759 --> 00:32:36,759
with a one run lead, and you just go do

605
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,920
you can, just go do something else. They're probably gonna

606
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,160
get out and win the game. This year not so much.

607
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:46,000
I had them on Friday Night ended up winning an

608
00:32:46,079 --> 00:32:48,200
extra innings, but that was another one where they choked

609
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,400
away a four run lead in a Logan Gilbert start,

610
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,960
So I kind of agree with you there, TV. I

611
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,920
don't trust their bullpen as much anymore. I would love

612
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,680
to find a way to play the Royals here. I

613
00:32:58,759 --> 00:32:59,640
just don't know how to do it.

614
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,559
Speaker 2: Go ahead, right, Yeah, A Kirby, as you mentioned the

615
00:33:03,599 --> 00:33:06,599
fourteenth strakeouts against the Angels. Other than that, the most

616
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,240
truckouts he's had in any game is five last two games,

617
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,559
three each. He's only walked one in those, so that's

618
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,799
very good. But his whiff rate is in the fourteenth percentile,

619
00:33:17,079 --> 00:33:21,079
and he's a guy that gets you to chase normally.

620
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,319
His chase rate is in the seventy second percentile. But

621
00:33:23,799 --> 00:33:26,279
they're still chasing. They're just hitting the ball. They're not whiffing.

622
00:33:26,279 --> 00:33:28,920
They're not swinging and missing, and that is the concern.

623
00:33:29,119 --> 00:33:30,720
And when it comes to the bullpens in this one,

624
00:33:30,839 --> 00:33:34,200
Kansas City's bullpen is set up better today than Seattle's.

625
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,799
Seattle had to use more of their key bullpen arms

626
00:33:37,839 --> 00:33:40,640
the last couple of days. So if you are going

627
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,480
to play it, I would not play Seattle. I would

628
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:47,200
play Kansas City or the Under if it was up

629
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:47,400
to me.

630
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: In this one, very interesting comment here from Chad, which

631
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,400
I want to just kind of like throw to you guys,

632
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:58,920
because nobody watches these games. It seems like if they do,

633
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,279
they'd see on the road the Royals of zero problem

634
00:34:01,359 --> 00:34:03,599
scoring runs at home, the Mariner struggled to score. This

635
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:06,240
is a Royal spot. Now I agree with I agree

636
00:34:06,279 --> 00:34:08,840
with that, the fact that this is probably a Royal spot.

637
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,960
But for me, it's like, I I watch this Royals

638
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,760
team struggle all week against the Rays and then most

639
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,320
of that series against the Dodgers. Now, why does them

640
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,920
going on the road instantly mean the offense comes back?

641
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,679
Like that's that's the only way I kind of did.

642
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,679
That's the only reason I kind of disagree with that mindset, Like, yes,

643
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,199
they have better numbers on the road, but like so

644
00:34:30,679 --> 00:34:33,880
just going to Seattle, just negate the fact that they can't,

645
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,159
that they haven't hit for shit all week. That's that's

646
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,760
I'm curious to see how you guys like evaluate that.

647
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,800
Are you like, Okay, Now they're on the road, so

648
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,119
we're gonna get road splits from the Royals here or no,

649
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,599
Like this team's struggling to hit, they're probably still going

650
00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:49,199
to struggle to hit. It's an interesting question.

651
00:34:50,039 --> 00:34:53,159
Speaker 2: Well, the home ballpark Kaufman Field is more of a

652
00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:58,599
pitcher's ballpark overall, although it changes a little bit every year,

653
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,239
but this year it's it's similar to what it's been

654
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:07,039
in the past. So when they do leave a pitcher's ballpark,

655
00:35:07,679 --> 00:35:10,760
they're they're hitting should be a little bit better. But

656
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,199
we could see that happening here. But I'm agreeing with you.

657
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,000
If the guys are slumping, it doesn't make a difference.

658
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,599
It's not like I've been to games in Kansas City.

659
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,760
They're typical of you're Midwest fans. They like the team

660
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,320
and all, but it's not if you're like if you're

661
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:34,239
pitching in New York City or Boston, where if you're

662
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,000
stinking at home, you can't wait to get down the

663
00:35:37,039 --> 00:35:39,840
road get away from that kind of pressure. Kansas City

664
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:40,519
doesn't have that.

665
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:41,639
Speaker 1: So I don't.

666
00:35:41,679 --> 00:35:42,039
Speaker 3: I don't.

667
00:35:42,559 --> 00:35:44,679
Speaker 2: I don't think I agree in that with that comment.

668
00:35:47,199 --> 00:35:49,199
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with it though. It's just it's an

669
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:54,360
interesting thought process because we're baseball people are so numbers oriented.

670
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,320
I know, I know so many handicappers really look at

671
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,559
home road splits and stuff like that, and I've never

672
00:35:59,599 --> 00:36:02,960
been a huge splits guy, and I think it's for

673
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,360
that reason, because I just I just think there's more

674
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,079
to it. But it's an interesting question, and I'm not

675
00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:10,400
disagreeing with him. It would it would be Royals or

676
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,239
pass for me here, So I'm not fully disagreeing. It's

677
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,039
just I thought it was a very interesting question that

678
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:18,960
deserved some attention. Double cole Red Sox and Reds. Next,

679
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,679
please ask and you shall receive. This is gonna be

680
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,239
Fenway Park. Fenway Park's gonna gonna get to meet a

681
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,239
guy named Chase Burns tonight, Brian Leonard, how about that

682
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:32,800
for uh? How about that? For for your major league

683
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,239
you get called up? You were in college last year.

684
00:36:36,039 --> 00:36:38,159
You didn't ever pitch in the minor league, so your

685
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:42,599
first affiliated ball action was this year. You shoot up

686
00:36:42,639 --> 00:36:45,719
through the ranks. You shoot up through the ranks of

687
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,079
the miners, and then your first two starts in Major

688
00:36:48,159 --> 00:36:51,039
League Baseball are Yankees and then at Fenway Park against

689
00:36:51,079 --> 00:36:54,119
the Red Sox. That's what Chase Burns is getting tonight.

690
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,079
He's at home, he's on the road against Garrett Crochet.

691
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,119
Might be the game of the night to watch here,

692
00:36:59,519 --> 00:37:00,000
are you getting?

693
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:01,639
Speaker 3: Yeah?

694
00:37:01,639 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 2: Burns pitch really well in that first game. They left

695
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,440
him in a little bit too long. He went five innings,

696
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,320
got eight strikeouts. He comes in with a five point

697
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,079
four o E, a one point two oh whip expected

698
00:37:13,119 --> 00:37:15,000
the ra four point seven to one, but he was

699
00:37:15,079 --> 00:37:17,800
much better than that until he tired as the game

700
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,039
went on. You see that a lot. And he's only

701
00:37:20,039 --> 00:37:22,400
twenty two years old. You see that a lot in

702
00:37:22,679 --> 00:37:25,559
these younger pitchers. They come out and they get so excited,

703
00:37:25,559 --> 00:37:28,920
they get so pumped up. Miss Rowski's been that way

704
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,119
all of his starts so far. But they do get

705
00:37:34,159 --> 00:37:36,920
tired a little bit, and that's the situation that cost

706
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,719
him there. This is a good hitters park. Boston is

707
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,519
a good hitting park, and despite the fact that the

708
00:37:42,639 --> 00:37:45,719
offense is struggling right now, this is a place that

709
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,519
it's tough to win on, win at and pitch well,

710
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,599
especially when in reality, you know, he's only got three pitches.

711
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,239
He throws a curve one percent of the time, but

712
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,400
his four team is fifty nine percent of the time.

713
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,400
So he's a fastball pitcher. You know what you're going

714
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:04,840
to get, and you're in a ballpark where you can

715
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:08,239
give up some cheap fly balls that hit the monster.

716
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,760
That is my concern with Burns here and going up

717
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,800
against Crochet. Crochet has just been terrific all season long.

718
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,559
Two point zho six CRA one point oh two whip

719
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,679
two point nine to five expected ERA. But he's taken

720
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,519
on Cincinnati team who seems to hit a little bit

721
00:38:26,559 --> 00:38:28,719
better on the road than they do at home this year,

722
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,199
even though they're they play in a good hitters ballpark.

723
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,440
It should be a fun game to watch. We're looking

724
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,639
at a basically a line of one sixty five maybe

725
00:38:38,679 --> 00:38:42,559
on Boston and seven and a half on the total

726
00:38:42,599 --> 00:38:45,079
that's been met down and opened at eight over fifteen.

727
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,880
Now it's either eight minus twenty twenty five to the

728
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:53,039
under or seven and a half minus fifteen to the over,

729
00:38:53,199 --> 00:38:55,880
so they expect it to be a lower scoring game.

730
00:38:58,199 --> 00:39:01,519
Burns could blow up. It could happened in this game.

731
00:39:01,639 --> 00:39:03,440
It doesn't take much to score seven and a half

732
00:39:03,519 --> 00:39:07,480
eight runs in Boston. That said, I'm excited to watch

733
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,679
the game, Donald, if I'm gonna get involved.

734
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Burns is the only Italian player in

735
00:39:14,519 --> 00:39:18,239
Major League baseball, so that's that's kind of nice. He

736
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:22,840
did have a good start his first start, and he

737
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,320
didn't walk anyone, which is nice. Struck out a lot.

738
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,039
So yeah, he's got good stuff. Like Brian said, they

739
00:39:29,119 --> 00:39:31,119
left him in too long. If they had taken him

740
00:39:31,119 --> 00:39:34,119
out earlier, his stats would be bright and shiny. But again,

741
00:39:34,599 --> 00:39:37,199
it's a it's a small sample size, so you have

742
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:38,960
to take it with a bit of a grain of salt.

743
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:43,039
But he definitely has good stuff. But he's gonna be

744
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,079
erratic because he's young, and he's and he's never been

745
00:39:46,079 --> 00:39:51,280
here before. So I have Garrett Crochet ranked one notch

746
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,039
right above Zach Wheeler at number four. I have Wheeler

747
00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:57,159
at five. I think I said six earlier, but got

748
00:39:57,199 --> 00:40:04,519
Crochet ranked four. I mean, he's absolutely stud and he's

749
00:40:05,519 --> 00:40:09,360
let's see, take a look at the lineups. Yeah, Boston.

750
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,880
You know again, I'm gonna use that phrase toiling and mediocrity.

751
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,360
Both of these lineups not hitting real well, and neither

752
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,960
Bullpen's performing very well. So I'm kind of stuck here.

753
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,599
I'd love to take Boston, but not at minus one ninety.

754
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:25,440
I'd like to maybe use a minus one and take

755
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,440
him at minus one sixty if they were playing a

756
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,440
team that's worse than the Reds. But I have kind

757
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,159
of a you know, I try to cover the logos

758
00:40:33,199 --> 00:40:36,239
and just base my analysis on numbers. But I got

759
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,159
a thing for the Reds. I think they're just They're

760
00:40:38,199 --> 00:40:42,599
just a good team, I think, and it's hard to

761
00:40:42,599 --> 00:40:47,679
bet against them here. But Crochet is definitely a great picture.

762
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,840
But he's backed by a poor bullpen and their lineup's

763
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,480
not hitting real well right now. So although I'd love

764
00:40:55,559 --> 00:40:59,639
to take Boston minus one, I'm not going to do it.

765
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 2: I don't think you need the minus one because it's

766
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,159
not one ninety. It's about one sixty three right now.

767
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 3: Okay, got it. I thought it was one ninety when

768
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:08,920
I checked it.

769
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 2: Maybe I didn't stay long.

770
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 3: Burns is Italian, guys, Sorry he is.

771
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, so's I don't think he's the only Italian. I mean,

772
00:41:19,039 --> 00:41:22,800
there's plenty of Italian Italian descent players and Italian players

773
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,480
in Major League Baseball. But yes, Chase Burns was born

774
00:41:26,519 --> 00:41:29,920
in Naples, Italy, which is where much of my family

775
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,840
on my mother's side is from and still lives. If

776
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:37,000
you go out further to the cousins, a lot of

777
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:39,760
them are still in the Naples, Italy area. So that

778
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:46,719
is where Italian was born. Yeah, mostly entirely. Yep. My

779
00:41:47,199 --> 00:41:50,400
mother's side one hundred percent Italian, and my dad's side

780
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,000
is mostly Italian. I think I have some Polish in

781
00:41:53,039 --> 00:41:56,320
me from one from one grandmother, but yes, mostly Italian,

782
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,960
and most of them are from that that Naples Areas

783
00:42:00,039 --> 00:42:02,880
so where Chase Burns was born. I believe his dad

784
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,679
was in the military, so he was born in Italy,

785
00:42:06,159 --> 00:42:08,440
but family traveled around a lot. I wonder if he

786
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,800
that probably means he could play for He could probably

787
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,559
play for Italy and World Baseball Classic. I would assume.

788
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,239
I don't know if that's like a you know, that

789
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,440
would be a nice that'd be a nice grab for Italy.

790
00:42:19,519 --> 00:42:21,960
Let's put it that way, because I don't think they

791
00:42:22,119 --> 00:42:24,840
typically have a ton of pitching. There's also a bunch

792
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,880
of Italians in the Cardinals organization. I don't know why,

793
00:42:28,079 --> 00:42:30,920
like what the pipeline is there, but like Triple A,

794
00:42:31,039 --> 00:42:35,440
Memphis has like four Italian guys in the Cardinals organization. Anyway,

795
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,800
back to this game, I am I like the Red

796
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,920
Sox here, I'm debating using it. Yeah, you know what,

797
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:44,800
I'm gonna use it. Let's use it for the parlay

798
00:42:45,159 --> 00:42:47,320
Red Sox money line. Brian, what did you say that

799
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:54,000
that price is minus one sixty five. Yeah, Red Sox

800
00:42:54,039 --> 00:42:58,239
minus won sixty five. Agree with Tokyo Brandon. I I mean,

801
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,119
as much as you like burned and he did throw

802
00:43:01,159 --> 00:43:04,079
the ball well, I agree with Brian. He was cruising

803
00:43:04,159 --> 00:43:06,199
until they kind of maybe left him in too long.

804
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,679
I think, you know you're still gonna have to outpitch

805
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:13,880
Garrett Crochet here, who is like I mean, they did,

806
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,159
the Red Sox still have the edge with Garrett Crochet

807
00:43:17,159 --> 00:43:19,719
on the mound, even even with how good this kid is.

808
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,559
In my opinion, it's a it's a really is a

809
00:43:22,599 --> 00:43:24,599
massive game for the Red Sox. I think this is

810
00:43:24,599 --> 00:43:27,760
another huge series for them. They are they're three games

811
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,400
under five hundred. They just dropped a series in their

812
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,639
division to the to the Blue Jays over the weekend.

813
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,599
It just feels like a really big spot for them

814
00:43:35,639 --> 00:43:40,119
at home. And Crochet has just done nothing, but he's

815
00:43:40,159 --> 00:43:42,280
just been amazing. I mean, they they've lost games that

816
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,079
they should have won for him. I believe his last

817
00:43:44,119 --> 00:43:46,760
start we I think his last start, we had him

818
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,360
in the parlay actually, guys, and he threw like seven

819
00:43:50,679 --> 00:43:53,639
or seven innings of shutout ball and then the bullpen

820
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,719
came in gave up the run and they lost an

821
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:59,960
extra innings. I just feel like where they're at, Roche

822
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:01,880
is the guy, Like this just feels like such a

823
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,440
big game for them that I think they maybe get

824
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:06,679
the Reds kind of coming off, you know, coming to

825
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,800
Fenway off the road, weird spot for them. If Burns

826
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,159
only goes four or five innings, you should have a

827
00:44:12,199 --> 00:44:14,280
decent advantage at the end of this game. So I'll

828
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,320
go Red Sox go ahead, Tokyo Brandon.

829
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 3: Quick note, I when the line was like this, I

830
00:44:21,199 --> 00:44:24,559
just took a look at Crochet's to win odds and

831
00:44:24,599 --> 00:44:26,760
it was minus one ten. And usually a pitcher to

832
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:30,079
win is like plus one sixty around there. Minus one

833
00:44:30,079 --> 00:44:32,599
ten is pretty tough to take to get the win.

834
00:44:33,079 --> 00:44:36,079
So yeah, I would agree with you, Adam. But the

835
00:44:36,119 --> 00:44:39,519
bullpen said, I trashed Boston's bullpen. But actually the bullpen

836
00:44:39,559 --> 00:44:42,559
probably won't be much of a factor because Crochet likely

837
00:44:42,599 --> 00:44:44,239
will go seven or eight innings here.

838
00:44:44,519 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to say to get the win and

839
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,039
then we'll go to Brian. This is one scenario where

840
00:44:49,079 --> 00:44:51,880
I don't hate that because I really think that he's

841
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,480
not given that ball up unless he absolutely has to.

842
00:44:54,519 --> 00:44:58,280
If you've watched him times out he could go in

843
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,360
the ninth He pitched into the ninth inning against the Yankees.

844
00:45:01,599 --> 00:45:05,079
He pitched. He probably wanted to go back out there

845
00:45:05,079 --> 00:45:08,559
in that Angels game. Seven innings, shutout, innings, ten strikeouts.

846
00:45:09,119 --> 00:45:12,320
I think he understands he is the guy there and

847
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,840
they're gonna have to pry that ball out of his hands.

848
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,880
I think you're gonna get seven or eight from Crochet again.

849
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:17,679
Go ahead, Brian.

850
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 2: Vinny Pastino can't get more than an Italian name from

851
00:45:23,119 --> 00:45:27,239
so he's the first one that pops into my head

852
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,199
for being Italian.

853
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 3: Is a good Italian name.

854
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,639
Speaker 1: Father Alas Master Bony is one that's on the Mariners

855
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,280
right now. Made a great catch to save me on

856
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,480
Friday night in a game that the Mariners ended up

857
00:45:40,519 --> 00:45:44,000
winning in extra innings. The team they beat in extra

858
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:48,440
innings in that game, the Texas Rangers. Very interesting game

859
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:52,159
tonight because we had this exact matchup last week on

860
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,960
this show. We talked about the game. I said it

861
00:45:56,039 --> 00:45:59,679
might be Trevor Rodgers finally like showing his stuff, and

862
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:03,079
it was. And now we get the same matchup. What

863
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:05,599
a week later? I think it's a week later, same

864
00:46:05,599 --> 00:46:09,039
matchup a week later. This time it's in Arlington. It's

865
00:46:09,079 --> 00:46:13,360
Patrick Corbyn against the Orioles Rogers. Corbyn will start with uh,

866
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:14,320
we'll start with Brian.

867
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 3: Yeah.

868
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:21,079
Speaker 2: In that game for Rogers, he went eight innings nowhere runs,

869
00:46:21,559 --> 00:46:26,360
no walks, three hits, four strikeouts, got a zero point

870
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:27,719
seven to eight whip in that game.

871
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: It was awesome.

872
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,199
Speaker 2: But the problem is he's facing the same team again

873
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:38,280
in Texas. And this is the situation. And I talked

874
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:41,519
about this the other day about Texas being turning into

875
00:46:41,599 --> 00:46:45,920
a real pitchers ballpark. That's the situation we're having again. Now,

876
00:46:46,679 --> 00:46:50,159
this current line on this game, as we're looking at

877
00:46:50,159 --> 00:46:53,760
it is Texas Corbyn, two lefties. By the way, Texas

878
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:57,679
Corbyn and Rogers. Rogers is actually the favorite here. He's

879
00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:00,000
gone basically it was a pick him overnight, still more,

880
00:47:00,199 --> 00:47:05,199
but basically pick him. But you can take Baltimore and

881
00:47:06,079 --> 00:47:10,559
go anywhere from minus one oh five to minus one thirteen. Really,

882
00:47:10,599 --> 00:47:12,159
there's only one place out there that has got a

883
00:47:12,199 --> 00:47:15,440
plus circa here in Vegas. He got plus on Texas.

884
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:19,400
But I would prefer the Texas side here playing at

885
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,199
home in the second time they get to face him.

886
00:47:22,199 --> 00:47:25,320
Trevor Rodgers. We've known what we could get out of him.

887
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 3: So far this year.

888
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: He's been he's been.

889
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 1: Good, but.

890
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 2: Just it just reminds me of what he's done the

891
00:47:34,559 --> 00:47:37,599
last couple of years. You know, his career record is

892
00:47:37,639 --> 00:47:40,920
sixteen and thirty four, and yet the Orioles went out

893
00:47:41,119 --> 00:47:43,519
and searched for him. They were the guy that they

894
00:47:43,559 --> 00:47:47,280
wanted to sign in the off season. And he's only

895
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,239
got three starts so far this year, four point twenty

896
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,559
sixth career ERA one point three eight whip.

897
00:47:53,039 --> 00:47:54,079
Speaker 1: He looked good earlier.

898
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 2: I don't think he's turned his career around. I'm not

899
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:00,440
looking to bet on Rogers. Patrick Corbin. You know, as

900
00:48:00,519 --> 00:48:04,840
much as he's he's been picked on last few years

901
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,880
while he's pitched in losing ballparks, he's got a four

902
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:12,599
point two four E four point two six expected one

903
00:48:12,639 --> 00:48:14,599
point two eight whip is he's always had a problem

904
00:48:14,639 --> 00:48:17,320
a little bit with the whip. It's not that he

905
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,280
walks a lot of batters, that he gives up a

906
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,559
lot of hits. His strak out to walker ratio this

907
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:24,800
year eighteen point five seven point two puts him at

908
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,079
eleven point three. Not the greatest, but he's got a

909
00:48:28,079 --> 00:48:33,440
really good extension and hard hit rate, chase rate is

910
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,280
very good. So I like the Texas side here. I

911
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:39,639
think that's a bargain. If you're telling me right now

912
00:48:39,679 --> 00:48:42,599
that Baltimore with the Rogers should be favored on the

913
00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:46,599
road even slightly, I think is a mistake. I will

914
00:48:46,639 --> 00:48:48,599
take Texas in this game and that will be my

915
00:48:48,679 --> 00:48:51,320
part of the parlay. Let's play Texas on the money

916
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:55,559
line and let's go minus one oh two on that,

917
00:48:55,639 --> 00:49:03,719
and that should be a consensus number right now.

918
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:04,079
Speaker 3: The most Italian name to ever play Major League Baseball

919
00:49:04,159 --> 00:49:07,519
has to be rockobal Deli. Don't you think that's a

920
00:49:07,519 --> 00:49:14,239
pretty Italian name. Vinnie's pretty good, Vinnie Vinnie is pretty

921
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:18,239
Italian too. Yeah, that's that's yeah. Okay again, I'm going

922
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:20,519
to grovel you guys. Go back to our replay of

923
00:49:20,559 --> 00:49:24,039
this show and just leave a comment and click to

924
00:49:24,199 --> 00:49:26,079
like and show Wager Talk that you love our show.

925
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:28,159
It goes a long way in helping us.

926
00:49:28,559 --> 00:49:28,639
Speaker 1: So.

927
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:33,880
Speaker 3: Uh, both of these pictures have pretty good walk walk

928
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:38,280
to strikeout ratios. But like Brian said, maybe we can't

929
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,840
trust Trevor Rodgers shiny numbers because throughout his career he

930
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:47,880
hasn't been this shiny. But can the Rangers hit him?

931
00:49:48,199 --> 00:49:51,360
I highly doubt it because you know they're they're hitting

932
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,800
is is their bats are pretty cold. Uh, not quite

933
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:59,800
as cold as Kansas City, but still somewhat cold. The

934
00:50:00,079 --> 00:50:03,559
Riols didn't they didn't they just come off a sweep.

935
00:50:03,559 --> 00:50:05,280
They're actually playing pretty good, did they?

936
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 1: Did they? They lost one of the lost one.

937
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:15,119
Speaker 3: Nevertheless, they're playing quite good and quite well, and uh,

938
00:50:15,199 --> 00:50:21,280
the problem is neither one of these bullpens performing very well. Yeah,

939
00:50:21,559 --> 00:50:23,360
I'm kind of stuck in the mud and I'm not

940
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,760
going to jinx Bryan's play. So i'll, i'll, i'll, I'm

941
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,360
not going to play this, but I'll just say that

942
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:33,119
both pitchers are pitching pretty well right now. I think

943
00:50:33,199 --> 00:50:36,519
Corbyn's more lucky than he is skilled at the moment,

944
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,639
but man, he's he's as for for an innings eater,

945
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:45,280
he's doing a respectable job. I think Rogers will have

946
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,599
a decent game, but I don't think he'll have quite

947
00:50:47,599 --> 00:50:50,559
the game he had last start. So those are my

948
00:50:50,639 --> 00:50:51,519
thoughts on this one.

949
00:50:52,599 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, so thought process for me here leans toward the Rangers.

950
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,000
So you've had these two teams that just played six

951
00:50:59,079 --> 00:51:03,679
days ago. The Orioles had a harder time hitting on

952
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:05,880
the road. They have a harder time hitting left handed pitching.

953
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:09,679
So even though the Corbyn they just saw him, they're

954
00:51:09,679 --> 00:51:11,920
still gonna have to deal with going on the road

955
00:51:12,039 --> 00:51:16,880
and facing a left handed pitcher. Whereas Rogers was unhittable.

956
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,920
He was nasty in that start. But now you're gonna

957
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,840
have the Rangers like A, he hasn't been consistent at all,

958
00:51:24,079 --> 00:51:25,880
like if he was, you know what I mean, Like

959
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,079
he's had the opportunity to do that for three years now. Yeah,

960
00:51:29,079 --> 00:51:31,519
he had a really good start, but is he gonna

961
00:51:31,559 --> 00:51:34,280
replicate that A and B? Is he gonna do it

962
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,639
against the team that just saw him six days ago?

963
00:51:37,599 --> 00:51:41,199
I'm almost the same thing goes for Corbyn, right like

964
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,920
they just saw him. But it's like Corbyn's been doing

965
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,599
the same thing for so long. I just feel like

966
00:51:46,679 --> 00:51:49,280
he's you know, they knew what they were gonna get

967
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,559
six days ago out of with Corbyn and they still

968
00:51:51,559 --> 00:51:54,599
struggled to hit him. So I'm more inclined to think

969
00:51:54,639 --> 00:51:57,880
the Orioles have trouble with Corbyn here, whereas the Rangers

970
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,599
might make the adjustments to get something off of Rogers

971
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,159
throw them in their home ballpark. I think it leans

972
00:52:03,199 --> 00:52:05,079
to a Ranger spot. Go ahead, Brian.

973
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

974
00:52:06,079 --> 00:52:09,039
Speaker 2: The last time they played, it was the matchup and

975
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:11,920
Corborn watch five innings give up five hundred runs. That

976
00:52:12,039 --> 00:52:15,280
was his worst start of the season. So I've got

977
00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:17,880
a guy coming off his best start of the season

978
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,559
against the guy coming off as worst start of the season.

979
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:23,840
I try to put myself in the position of players.

980
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:27,039
If I'm the starter for the Orioles, I'm coming in

981
00:52:27,599 --> 00:52:31,119
is our friend Marco would say pat and sassy in

982
00:52:31,159 --> 00:52:34,199
the in this game, or as opposed to if I'm

983
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,400
the guy that got bombed last time I played him,

984
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:38,639
this guy all week long, he's been working on his

985
00:52:39,559 --> 00:52:42,360
coming back out and playing that team and getting his revenge.

986
00:52:42,599 --> 00:52:45,840
So that's something I always look at when you and

987
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:47,880
you've got two teams that just played each other with

988
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:51,559
the same starting pitchers. I like to fade what happened

989
00:52:51,599 --> 00:52:54,440
in the first game. And and Corbin's got six different

990
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:56,559
pitches to throw, even though he only throws his curve

991
00:52:56,639 --> 00:52:58,719
one percent of the time, but he's not a guy

992
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,880
who's gonna throw a throws is forcing four percent of

993
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,679
the time. I love that everybody. I always say, everybody

994
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:08,000
measure the baseball, can hit the passball, and his fastball

995
00:53:08,079 --> 00:53:10,679
velocity is only eleventh percentile. So he's gonna beat him

996
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,119
with a bunch of junk. And that's how you beat

997
00:53:13,159 --> 00:53:14,280
this Baltimore Orioles team.

998
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:16,280
Speaker 3: Good point.

999
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,559
Speaker 1: All right, we are going to go to uh well,

1000
00:53:20,559 --> 00:53:23,559
we'll get one more game in here. The chat really

1001
00:53:23,599 --> 00:53:28,280
wants to talk Diamondbacks Giants, so let's go. Let's go

1002
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:29,920
to that one. We'll go right to Brian Leonard. This

1003
00:53:30,039 --> 00:53:33,000
is the I guess, the degenerate special of the night,

1004
00:53:33,039 --> 00:53:36,440
the last one off the board, heading out West, Giants Diamondbacks.

1005
00:53:36,679 --> 00:53:37,599
What do you see in there?

1006
00:53:38,599 --> 00:53:42,599
Speaker 2: Two pitchers, two starting pitchers pitching very well. Logan Web

1007
00:53:42,679 --> 00:53:45,480
obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball. Two point

1008
00:53:45,599 --> 00:53:49,159
five two e r a three point zero two expected

1009
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:52,800
one point one four whip. He's got a lot, he's

1010
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,199
got a lot of red on his stat cast page.

1011
00:53:55,559 --> 00:53:58,400
His strekout to walk ratio is twenty two point four,

1012
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:02,679
which is excellent. And he's going up against Ryan Nelson.

1013
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,360
Ryan Nelson's pitched very well lately. In fact, you go

1014
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:09,400
back for his gain logs, you can go back all

1015
00:54:09,519 --> 00:54:17,719
the way through. Since April twenty fourth, he's given up

1016
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:24,039
earn runs in his games one zero two, zero two,

1017
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:32,159
one zero zero seven against the Cincinnati Reds in Cincinnati,

1018
00:54:33,159 --> 00:54:36,800
then zero one and one. He is one of the

1019
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:40,000
biggest bargains right now in Major League Baseball has been

1020
00:54:40,039 --> 00:54:41,960
looking to play him in the last couple of months.

1021
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,440
He's been very good and now he's got his chance

1022
00:54:44,519 --> 00:54:49,000
to pitch in the starting rotation, and it's something a

1023
00:54:49,039 --> 00:54:52,679
lot of his backers like. His extensions in the eighty

1024
00:54:52,679 --> 00:54:55,599
third percentile, but he doesn't draw a lot of chase

1025
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,239
and whifts. He's only in the eighteenth percentile, and with

1026
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,639
ten percent in chase. He's a guy comes in with

1027
00:55:01,639 --> 00:55:06,920
a three point seven to one ERA, and so three

1028
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:10,880
point seven one ERA is expected. Era's four point oh

1029
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:14,800
nine one point five whip two pitchers that I trust

1030
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,400
in this game right here that are pitching very well.

1031
00:55:20,159 --> 00:55:23,559
The line is right now at WEB maybe minus one

1032
00:55:23,559 --> 00:55:28,159
point thirty total of eight in this game. But do

1033
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:32,360
we really trust this San Francisco offense. They've been struggling

1034
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:37,239
mightily lately. Miami swept them and they have not been

1035
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:41,119
hitting at all. So if I play this game, either

1036
00:55:41,159 --> 00:55:43,840
playing the under eight. You can get an eight and

1037
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:46,039
a half a pinnacle right now if you're out of

1038
00:55:46,079 --> 00:55:50,840
the United States but under eight or I'm looking at

1039
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:56,039
the team total for San Francisco under and that is

1040
00:55:56,079 --> 00:56:00,000
looking at a four and a half under minus one

1041
00:56:00,079 --> 00:56:03,719
twenty five, So you need the Giants to score five

1042
00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:10,280
runs against Arizona to lose. To lose that bet, I

1043
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:11,880
kind of like the under four and a half in

1044
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,960
the team total. As we look to fade, the Giants

1045
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:18,199
can once again. Here it's more of a hitters park

1046
00:56:19,079 --> 00:56:21,320
in Arizona. But with the way these pictures are pitching

1047
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:24,880
right now, I like this. I like the under team

1048
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,119
total in San Francisco under the four and a half.

1049
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,440
Speaker 3: Wow, Brian, you stole all my thunder on that. We're

1050
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:34,039
exactly on the same page. Man. This is how you

1051
00:56:34,079 --> 00:56:37,199
beat the books. Now, this is how professional handicappers beat

1052
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:40,800
the books. Is you take a picture like Nelson, who

1053
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:44,920
the books will slight and completely disrespect him, and you

1054
00:56:45,039 --> 00:56:48,440
go in there and you you grab him until the

1055
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,199
books catch up to how good he is. If you

1056
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,360
cover these pictures names and just look at their numbers,

1057
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:59,280
you would think that Nelson is Web and Web is Nelson.

1058
00:56:59,679 --> 00:57:01,599
So this is how you beat the books is you

1059
00:57:01,639 --> 00:57:04,360
take a picture like this because everyone knows that Web

1060
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,199
is good. As a matter of fact, I have Web

1061
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:09,400
rank number two out of all starting pitchers in current

1062
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:12,760
form right now. Everyone knows he's good. So you're not

1063
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:17,559
gonna get value betting like betting the Giants to win,

1064
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,000
but you will get value betting either. A Giants team

1065
00:57:21,039 --> 00:57:23,639
total under is exactly what Brian said. I mean, I'm

1066
00:57:23,679 --> 00:57:26,320
on the exact same pages. And the Diamondbacks bullpen is

1067
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:29,119
starting to come around as well. As I mentioned in

1068
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:33,199
our last show, I was ripping them a new one

1069
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,280
at the beginning of the season, but now they're actually

1070
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:41,320
playing kind of well right now, somewhat well. But yeah,

1071
00:57:41,519 --> 00:57:44,159
you think the Giants can score five runs? I mean,

1072
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,159
they haven't scored. They're one of the worst offenses in

1073
00:57:47,239 --> 00:57:50,679
Major League Baseball right now. They're winning by having great

1074
00:57:50,719 --> 00:57:54,239
pitching and winning two to one every game. That's how

1075
00:57:54,239 --> 00:57:57,400
they're winning their games right now. So yeah, I'm on

1076
00:57:57,679 --> 00:58:01,719
exactly the same page as Brian here. I think you

1077
00:58:02,119 --> 00:58:07,119
take Nelson. One thing that concerns me is is career wise,

1078
00:58:07,159 --> 00:58:09,800
his stats against these Giants are not very good. But man,

1079
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,800
he's pitching great this season and season to season, pitchers

1080
00:58:13,119 --> 00:58:15,599
they make adjustments, they pick up new pitches, they drop

1081
00:58:15,639 --> 00:58:18,519
pitches that don't work. So I think that's what's happening

1082
00:58:18,559 --> 00:58:21,400
with Nelson. He's he's morphing into a really good picture.

1083
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:26,559
Speaker 2: I do want to point out the Arizona bullpen has

1084
00:58:26,599 --> 00:58:30,440
been used a little bit lately, So if you want

1085
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:35,079
to play the first half under for San Francisco, that

1086
00:58:35,119 --> 00:58:38,880
wouldn't be a bad play either. That is looking at

1087
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,320
two and a half under one fifty one fifty five.

1088
00:58:44,079 --> 00:58:46,320
Another way to look at it. You keep the bullpens

1089
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:46,679
out of it.

1090
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,239
Speaker 1: I got to push back on that comment. The Diamondock's

1091
00:58:51,239 --> 00:58:54,840
bullpen has been atrocious and they really couldn't be worse.

1092
00:58:55,079 --> 00:58:58,800
They've they've now after yesterday, they've now blown a lead

1093
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:01,360
in twenty eight of their law. The just Baseball guys

1094
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:04,000
on Buddies with tweeted that out on Saturday, and they

1095
00:59:04,039 --> 00:59:06,760
blew another one yesterday. That means twenty eight times that

1096
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,119
they've had a lead and ended up losing the game.

1097
00:59:09,280 --> 00:59:12,400
And yesterday was no was no exception. They gave that

1098
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:16,920
game up in the eighth inning. The Diamondbacks bullpen is horrific,

1099
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:21,119
absolutely horrific. They are they they And it's not that

1100
00:59:21,159 --> 00:59:23,840
they don't have it's not that they don't have arms

1101
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,559
that can get out. The problem TV is they don't

1102
00:59:26,639 --> 00:59:29,800
have any leverage guys. So they're going to blow games

1103
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:32,559
because they don't have They don't have guys that can

1104
00:59:32,599 --> 00:59:36,800
get out in the tough spots. I'm not saying they can't.

1105
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:38,719
They don't have a guy that can go in and

1106
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:41,639
give three four innings of long relief. They just don't

1107
00:59:41,639 --> 00:59:43,440
have any of these guys that you could put out

1108
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:45,559
there in the eighth, ninth inning when the game's on

1109
00:59:45,559 --> 00:59:47,320
the line, and that's why they blow so many leads.

1110
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:49,760
So as far as the total is concerned, I would

1111
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:52,519
definitely look at first five. I would not want any

1112
00:59:52,519 --> 00:59:55,519
part of Arizona in what's probably going to be a

1113
00:59:55,559 --> 00:59:59,039
tight game. At the back of this game, I too

1114
00:59:59,159 --> 01:00:02,239
like Nelson, but I now after the money move here,

1115
01:00:03,039 --> 01:00:05,199
there's been a lot of money on Arizona. I think

1116
01:00:05,239 --> 01:00:08,199
I could only push back at this point because I

1117
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,880
still think Logan web is a cut above, you know,

1118
01:00:12,199 --> 01:00:14,519
in terms of like I love what I've seen out

1119
01:00:14,559 --> 01:00:16,559
of Nelson, but Logan Webb's like a guy that I

1120
01:00:16,599 --> 01:00:18,760
feel like you can rely on for six seven innings,

1121
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:20,880
like you pretty much know that he's going to give

1122
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:24,119
you a professional start for six seven innings. And then

1123
01:00:24,639 --> 01:00:27,480
I would not want any part of Arizona in a

1124
01:00:27,519 --> 01:00:29,920
close game late. I mean, they're just they have no

1125
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:31,320
one that can go out there in the eighth or

1126
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:33,760
ninth inning, So it could only be Giants here for me.

1127
01:00:34,639 --> 01:00:35,320
Giants are passed.

1128
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:39,000
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Bran, Yeah, with the Arizona bullpen, five with

1129
01:00:39,119 --> 01:00:42,920
their top back, six starter back bullpen guys all pitched

1130
01:00:42,920 --> 01:00:45,840
to it the last three days, So scratch the full

1131
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:49,559
game and I prefer the first five.

1132
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:54,199
Speaker 1: San Francisco Stacey in the in the chatt is a

1133
01:00:54,320 --> 01:00:56,480
very funny comment here. The d Backs could put a

1134
01:00:56,480 --> 01:00:58,280
t ball stand at the plate and the Giants would

1135
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:01,480
still struggle. It certainly feels it certainly feels like that,

1136
01:01:01,599 --> 01:01:04,960
and it's like it's it's puzzling to me, and I

1137
01:01:05,159 --> 01:01:07,159
gotta come on here and own it. I said that

1138
01:01:07,159 --> 01:01:10,880
that this trade made this Giants team getting Devs the

1139
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:13,480
bat that they didn't have, and they have been awful

1140
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:15,400
the last week or two, you know, a week or

1141
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:19,119
so since they've they've gotten him terrible all weekend against

1142
01:01:19,119 --> 01:01:22,039
the White Sox. So yeah, I don't know where you

1143
01:01:22,079 --> 01:01:23,840
go with the Giants from here. I still think it's

1144
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:27,119
in there somewhere. They've got so they've got pitching for days.

1145
01:01:27,119 --> 01:01:28,960
You have to think they could figure something out. But yeah,

1146
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:32,960
they have been a very big disappointment since that trade.

1147
01:01:33,599 --> 01:01:36,880
All right, we've reached, we've reached the hour. I am

1148
01:01:37,119 --> 01:01:39,800
going with promotion out him a promotion. I'll get the

1149
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:42,840
promotion out of there. We have a great Fourth of

1150
01:01:42,920 --> 01:01:47,039
July special on seven A all access that's for all

1151
01:01:47,119 --> 01:01:50,440
three of us. I haven't locked in a play. I'm

1152
01:01:50,519 --> 01:01:53,519
I'm probably locked. I'm probably gonna have a five percenter today.

1153
01:01:53,679 --> 01:01:55,400
I was waiting for something to come in and range.

1154
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,320
I'm watching the screens. I didn't want to lock it

1155
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,440
in before the show because I wanted to make sure

1156
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:01,559
I was getting the best price. I'm gonna be putting

1157
01:02:01,559 --> 01:02:03,480
that in as soon as we're off the show, which

1158
01:02:03,480 --> 01:02:06,159
you can get on the seven Day Special. And everyone's

1159
01:02:06,199 --> 01:02:09,559
got the seven day Special, so myself, Tokyo, Brandon, Brian Leonard.

1160
01:02:10,039 --> 01:02:13,760
It's seven days, sixty nine bucks. I think you can

1161
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:16,800
flex it. That's pretty good. So you can bounce around.

1162
01:02:17,360 --> 01:02:19,159
So if I lose to five percenter tonight and you

1163
01:02:19,199 --> 01:02:22,000
want to peace out, you can do that. Apparently on

1164
01:02:22,039 --> 01:02:24,960
the site, you can just bounce around to which handicappers

1165
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,719
you want it to go with whole feature. That's that's

1166
01:02:27,719 --> 01:02:30,000
a new newer feature that we have now, so that's

1167
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:34,159
pretty cool. The parlay plus four eighty three. So the

1168
01:02:34,199 --> 01:02:37,360
mondays have been been good for the parlay the last

1169
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:39,119
couple weeks. Then we can't hit one the rest of

1170
01:02:39,159 --> 01:02:44,119
the week, but we're still even after the losses last week,

1171
01:02:44,159 --> 01:02:46,719
we are still up twelve dollars and twenty four cents

1172
01:02:46,719 --> 01:02:48,840
on every dollar, which means if you were to play

1173
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,480
all of these parlays equally, every dollar so far that

1174
01:02:52,519 --> 01:02:55,559
you've invested would have returned twelve twenty four. That's pretty

1175
01:02:55,599 --> 01:02:59,199
good and we're but we got to keep it going

1176
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,360
because every time we creep up to that like twenty

1177
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:04,280
unit mark, we like lose a few in a row.

1178
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,360
So maybe tonight's to night. The parlay is again as

1179
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:12,119
follows brand Tokyo brandon A's first five team total under

1180
01:03:12,119 --> 01:03:14,920
one and a half. If you cannot bet that, I

1181
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:17,719
think we're all good with a first five under in there,

1182
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:21,760
but for the official grading, TV is going a's team

1183
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:25,039
total first five under one and a half. I've got

1184
01:03:25,039 --> 01:03:28,480
the Red Sox minus one sixty five and Brian Leonard's

1185
01:03:28,519 --> 01:03:32,239
going Rangers minus one oh two. That comes out to

1186
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:35,280
plus four eighty three, and hopefully that is the three

1187
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:38,000
teamer that gets our week going right here. So one

1188
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:41,239
more time, it's a's first five team total under one

1189
01:03:41,280 --> 01:03:45,000
and a half, Red Sox minus one sixty five, Rangers

1190
01:03:45,039 --> 01:03:47,239
minus one oh two. Do either of you guys have

1191
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:49,239
anything to promote before we get out of here?

1192
01:03:51,679 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 3: Sorry? Brown, I'll go first. I have a rest of

1193
01:03:54,039 --> 01:03:56,320
the year for under three dollars a day, and I

1194
01:03:56,360 --> 01:04:00,719
also have seven day special seven days for sixty nine dollars.

1195
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:03,119
Use code TB seven.

1196
01:04:04,039 --> 01:04:07,719
Speaker 2: I am going to promote my friend Marco D'Angelo, who

1197
01:04:07,840 --> 01:04:10,360
is tearing up the w n B A. I believe

1198
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:14,800
Ronald Kabeng is also very good in the w n

1199
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:18,599
B A. I don't handicap it, but I follow what

1200
01:04:18,639 --> 01:04:21,559
they give out and they've been excellent. So if you

1201
01:04:21,559 --> 01:04:23,679
could play the w n B A, those are a

1202
01:04:23,719 --> 01:04:25,599
couple of guys. We've got a few guys that are

1203
01:04:25,599 --> 01:04:27,400
really good at it. Those are a couple of guys

1204
01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:28,559
that have been really good this season.

1205
01:04:28,599 --> 01:04:33,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, Marco has been like he he crushed last year too. Yeah,

1206
01:04:33,639 --> 01:04:35,960
Like I remember he had an insane w NBA season

1207
01:04:36,039 --> 01:04:39,079
last year too, so good for him. Yeah. So definitely,

1208
01:04:39,079 --> 01:04:41,440
if you're tuned into that league, you can beat it,

1209
01:04:41,519 --> 01:04:43,679
same way as if you're tuned into minor league baseball,

1210
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:47,159
the way TV is in Japan and and and KBO.

1211
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:50,119
So yeah, they don't don't sleep on those those smaller

1212
01:04:50,199 --> 01:04:54,239
leagues because there are edges all over the place. All right,

1213
01:04:54,280 --> 01:04:57,599
we've we've hit the hour over the hour mark here.

1214
01:04:59,039 --> 01:05:02,079
We've got a full week. We will be here all week.

1215
01:05:02,119 --> 01:05:03,639
So that's the other thing I wanted to point out.

1216
01:05:03,639 --> 01:05:06,079
We will be here on July fourth. We'll see you

1217
01:05:06,159 --> 01:05:09,480
every day this week, nine am Eastern. We are back

1218
01:05:09,519 --> 01:05:12,440
tomorrow morning, nine am, live right here on the Wager

1219
01:05:12,519 --> 01:05:16,159
Talk YouTube channel. Cash all your tickets tonight. We will

1220
01:05:16,159 --> 01:05:17,000
see you in the morning.