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Welcome to another episode of the show
where we talk about things related to money

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and finance and the economy and all
things related to the financial world. And

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there's no one better to do that
with than Zach Abraham, who is the

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chief investment officer at Bulwark Capital Management
and also friend and sponsor of the show.

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And so today, Zach, we
wanted to get your expertise about a

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topic that we admittedly understand very little, and that is this whole. This

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whole. There's been a lot of
news lately about the US dollar and other

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countries that are not particularly friendly with
the United States dropping the dollar as its

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reserve currency, and like high level
we get that that sounds bad, but

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at a layman's level, we have
no idea what that means, and we

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were hoping you can help. Yeah, well, it's it's a it's a

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it's a hot topic and it's one
that we focus on a lot because I

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think in the world that I don't
think I know. In the world of

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investing, currency movements and interest rate
movements get looked past all the time,

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and at the end of the day, if you know, if you don't

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understand what's happening in currency and rate
markets, you have absolutely no idea what's

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going to happen because that that that
influences everything, right, Um. And

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for instance, one of the reasons
that we don't buy the stock market rally

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that's currently happening and all these why
is that just because interest rates You can't

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have interest rates is zero and raise
them to five and think things that bad

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things aren't gonna happen. Right,
It's gonna happen. Um. Same is

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true on the currency side of it. You know, if you get everything

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right and get the currency side of
things wrong, you're in trouble. Right.

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So it's something that we focus on
actually more than most other firms.

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But I think the I the conversation
is very multifaceted, and it's called complicated.

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So first of all, people need
to have an understanding, and I'll

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try to keep it and not try
to dig too deep in here to blow

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everybody out, but people need to
understand. You know, if you look

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at last year, we had the
highest rate of inflation that we'd had in

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forty years, and yet the dollar
made a twenty three year high? Right,

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why is that? And I think
it shocked a lot of people.

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It didn't to us that's what we
were expecting. But the reason why is

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because we understand the way that the
financial or the monetary the global monetary system

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works post World War Two. The
current monetary system was specifically designed to let

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the United States run essentially unlimited deficits
without hurting its currency. Okay, And

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the reason it was, the reason
it was designed that way has to do

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with Hitler taking over Germany and ushering
US into World War two. Ironically,

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so, after World War One,
the global economy, especially in Europe,

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was knud right. It was just
it was decimated. Yeah, and they

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took which seemed fair at the time. They took the entire cost of that

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war and levied it against the German
people. Well, the problem was is

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that their economy was decimated, so
they couldn't produce things, they couldn't write,

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they couldn't sell cars and get tax
revenue off of that and use that

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money to pay back their bills.
So a guy by the name of Rudy

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Havenstein, who ran the reichs Bank
or the German Central Bank at that time,

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he did really the only thing that
they could do, which was he

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printed money, and that's how he
was paying the debt and then that led

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to the hyper inflation that happened.
We refer to it as the Weimar Republic.

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You know the old stories about people
the wheelbarrows full of cash and they

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go back outside and they dumped the
cash out and take the wheelbarrow. That

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actually happened, right, And that's
because you know, and to explain to

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people what it was. So you'd
get paid at the end of the day

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and you'd race to the grocery store
because if you waited till the next morning,

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the cost of the goods would be
up. Right, That's how crazy

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the inflation was. So that led
directly to Hitler taking overpower, right,

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So because of the unrest and all
that kind of stuff. So at the

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end of World War Two is actually
one of the smartest things that I think

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the Globe has done over the last
hundred years is they said, Okay,

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let's not make the same mistake.
We're going to have the only remaining economy

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that is intact, the United States
come into Europe and rebuild Europe via the

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Marshall Plan, and we're going to
do it on the back of the US

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dollar. And to keep the US
dollar from getting hit from all that spending

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we're going to mandate that every country
in the world, in order to buy

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any type of good, whether it's
timber, any type of commodity material,

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you have to make those purchases in
US dollars. Right. So what they

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basically did was, regardless of what
was happening here in the United States,

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every country in the world had to
own US dollars if they wanted to purchase

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oil or natural gas or wood.
Now they've made tweaks to that system,

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but that system is still in place, right, and so could that system

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end? Yes, But people need
to understand the reason that these other countries

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are doing these things. It's not
because they think the dollar is going to

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plummet. If the dollar plummeted forty
percent in value, you would see parties

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in the streets of Beijing. Right, it's like a massive tax cut.

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If you have to use dollars to
buy wood and uh, you know rock,

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and you know oil and all these
other things. That means that the

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import costs for all your raw materials
just dropped by forty percent. Right.

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So everybody's like, oh, they're
they're pivoting away from the dollar because it's

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about to crash. And you're like
no, no, no, no,

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they're pivoting away from the dollar because
the nuclear because of the current set up,

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if we want to starve an economy
of dollars, we can collapse it

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instantly, you know, Like you
look at Venezuela. Venezuela is a victim

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of their own practices, there's no
question. But what really put them in

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a tough pinch is when we sanction
them and took them, took their access

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of US dollars away from them,
Right, That's where things really got nasty

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for Venezuela. So these guys,
and this is kind of one of the

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fears about what we're doing with Russia. When we wield that type of currency

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power against other sovereign nations, they
have to, as a matter of national

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security, entertain ulterior strategies, right, because if if somebody Knew gets elected

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in the United States and just decides, hey, arbitrarily, we're going to

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freeze you out of the US dollar
system, then we're going to force other

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countries to go other directions. And
that's kind of one of the things that

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I think that we should use it
as a cudgel to make other countries come

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along. But we need to use
it gently because at some point they'll just

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look at you and say, you
know what, We're going to form a

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new currency union. Now that is
a much more complicated thing than people are

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saying. We are not on the
verge of a dollar collapse. Like I

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said, if the dollar quote unquote
collapsed, everything would go up in value,

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right, So it's not this thing. You know. I heard Glenbeck

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recently, who I've got a ton
of respect for, and I know that

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Glenn, in my opinion at least, I think he's an honest operator that's

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trying to get it right. But
he was talking about the collapse of the

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dollar, and I'm just sitting there
going no, not until the monetary system

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changes, it's not possible. And
if it did happen, it would be

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a massive tax cut for the world. You would see more manufacturing get imported

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into the United States because the cost
of labor would go down by de facto.

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Right. So would it be a
good thing for the US consumer.

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No, but it would be offset
by the benefit that it caused the rest

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of the world. And then it
would also make US goods far cheaper to

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purchase for the rest of the world. So it's not this doomsday scenario.

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Yet with the current now, it's
some point you outrun your runway, right

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And I was gonna say, I
was gonna say, because is that good

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long term? It probably want to
be good long term? Right. No,

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No, it's not. It's it's
some point you outrun your runway and

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you reached this saturation point. Where
is that? Nobody really knows because we've

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never had a monetary system set up
like this. But but it's not the

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way. You know, I've been
hearing people talk about the collapse of the

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dollars since the time I was a
child, and back then it was we

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hit a trillion dollars in debt,
the dollars going to collapse. We hit

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five trillion dollars in debt, the
dollars going to collapse. Right now you're

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at thirty two, thirty four and
climbing right, So there it will happen

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at some point. Every fiat currency
in the history of mankind has gone under.

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But you know, it's the old
adage of you know, just because

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something is inevitable doesn't mean it's imminent. And what I would say is for

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people that are concerned about that,
don't be the threat to the global economy

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at this point, is the dollar
going substantial higher that that is like a

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new if the dollar index, which
is currently like a one to two,

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if the dollar index got to one
twenty five, it'd be like a nuclear

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bomb going off from the global economy. It would just crush everything. Right,

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But that sounds bad too. You're
so calm about I know, you're

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just like a nuclear blast of the
world. It's fine, it's fine.

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Well, but see here here's but
you got to understand, like everything else

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in our government, nobody ever fixes
a problem. So the Fed figured out

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this whole dollar strength problem. So
what they did is since going into O

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eight oh nine, we had eight
swap lines set up between the Federal Reserve

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and other central banks. Now,
the reason they have swap lines set up

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is if the dollars soars, right, all these other countries still need dollars,

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right, but in order to get
dollars, they have to go into

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the currency markets, sell their currency
and buy us dollars. Well, if

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the dollars soaring, if they go
do that, they're just adding to the

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problem, right, They're knocking the
value of their own currency down. They're

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pushing the value of the dollar up. So the federal reserves set up swap

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lines with these other central banks where
they can trade their currency off market and

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not impact the markets. It's like
a cheat, they're cheating. Okay,

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Well, since OZ eight o nine, we now have thirty swap lines set

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up with other central banks. So
the Fed's answer to that problem is,

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well, if that becomes a problem, we'll just print more money. Right.

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So it's the answer for everything,
right, We'll just print more money,

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right. So that's really the interesting
part of this is it now to

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the fence credit. They need to
try to keep a lid on the dollar

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because the dollar going to one twenty
six or one thirty, god forbid,

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that would usher in a new currency, right because the world can't function with

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the dollar at that level. So
if you're worried about the dollar not being

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the world reserve currency anymore, that
will only happen if the dollar goes way

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up. If the dollar goes down, there's no need for another currency,

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that makes sense, I think,
so I think, so, yeah,

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what do you what do you make
of the because like right now, because

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I was looking at this before we
got on this car, and the headlines

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about this, if you just do
a Google search on is you know,

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is the dollar being dropped as reserve
currency by these countries? What does that

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mean? You know what's going on? And so you know, you've got

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one website that says the Chinese you
want is going to replace the US dollar

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as the world's reserve currency. You've
got another headline that says dollar dominance isn't

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going anywhere. And here are five
minutes about de dollarization. And it's like,

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what is a regular person who just
knows how to spend dollars to make

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of this information? Like, how
do we wrap our heads around all the

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different opinions? Yeah, so I
think the best way is to get back

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to the facts. Right, So
what people forget about is when you talk

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about the dollar being in permanent decline
as it relates to our purchasing power.

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I would agree one hundred percent okay
that, and I don't think anything's going

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to arrest that at this point.
It is impermanent decline. But when you're

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talking about the collapse of a currency, what you're talking about is the value

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of that currency as it relates to
other currencies. So when people say the

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dollar is up, they're not talking
about the dollar being up to a bag

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of groceries. They're talking about the
dollar as it relates to the Chinese juan,

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or the yen, or the or
the or the Brazilian reale or right,

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all these other you know, the
euro. Right, So when you

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tell me, if somebody looks at
me and says, and I've had these

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debates and I've had them on mar
radio show too, or yeah, the

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yuan's gonna Chinese Juan's gonna take over
the and they go, and I go,

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why why do you say that?
They go, Well, the US

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spending And I go, you think
US spending in debt is a problem.

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And do you understand where the Chinese
economy is? Right? And not to

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mention the fact, but the Chinese
jand is a closed currency, which meaning

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they don't allow it to free flow. The government pins the product. It

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is possible for the Chinese juan to
be the world All you have to know

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is this. So China is the
second largest economy in the world. Right,

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but about seventy percent of international monetary
transactions happen in dollars, about six

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percent happen in Chinese one. Wow, Okay, okay, So why is

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that nobody trusts yuan? Nobody trusts
it, not even their trading partners.

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So the yuan is not taking over
for the dollar. All the problems that

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make dollar people all, the dollar
is going to collapse the Chinese. Chinese

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have that problem in space. It's
exponentially worse there. They also have a

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massive demographic problem and a shrinking population, which is another discussion. But yeah,

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it's the one about the five myths
of the dollarization that is much closer

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to reality. At some point.
The one complaint that a lot of these

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other countries have that's fair, is
that we, unlike any other country,

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can be as recklessly as reckless as
we want to be with fiscal spending and

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monetary stimulus and it doesn't impact our
currency. At some point, the political

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outcry from that is going to demand
another solution. But you're a ways away

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from that. It takes a lot
to rework the monetary system. And of

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all the things that we're afraid about
right now, the dollar collapsing isn't even

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on the list, and it shouldn't
be on the list of any serious investor.

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Okay, that basically our right our
media is full of crap that well,

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it's like it's so much fearmongering right, and so yeah, totally okay,

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yeah, and and and it's and
it's because it's it's all of these

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statements made in a vacuum is the
way that we're handling our fiscal responsibility.

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It's insane. I'm I'm not saying
that what we're not doing is it's nuts,

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all this debt and spending. Totally, but we're still the cleanest dirty

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shirt. You love that. Oh
my god, that's the greatest. We're

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winning the ugly pageant. There you
go. Well, you know what,

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though, that really helped. I
mean, I feel like that was a

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really nice historical explanation to where we
are today and like a way to kind

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of calm everybody down a little bit. I needed the calming down. I'm

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sure I'm not the old one,
and I try. I well, you

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want to make this as bite size
and edible as you can for people.

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But so I hope I didn't get
you. But you got to kind of

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know the history of it and realize, actually, the entire system was designed

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to let us run massive deficits without
the doc That was the whole design of

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the system. So to be sitting
there looking at the dollar wondering why it's

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not going down. You just need
to look at the design and the makeup

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of the system and then you'll understand, Okay, they did it well,

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they did it so they could they
could be like crooks and thieves. Yeah

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yeah, yeah, yeah, that's
great. And like so many other things,

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right, like the intention or the
thought in the beginning was good,

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right, yeah, yeah, they
just should have undone it at some point.

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And the other thing is is all
the people worried about us not being

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the world reserve currency. If you're
a person that believes our government should be

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held accountable and recklessly spends it may
not be if we were no longer the

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world reserve currency. I think that
we would have a much better managed government.

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I think it would be better for
freedom. I think it would be

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better for us getting involved in foreign
wars. I mean, think about if

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you don't have to adhere to a
budget, right, you just print money,

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You're gonna get a little involved in
a lot more foreign conflicts. Yeah,

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you can afford to right, the
road to hell was paid with good

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intentions. That's exactly right, Always
is right, right, Zach? Where

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can people learn more from you and
find out more about Bulwark capital management?

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Yeah? So first of all,
our radio show. We do a weekly

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show, Know Your Risk Radio.
You can just google Know your Risk Radio

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00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,480
podcasts or Spotify or Apple iTunes or
anything like that. And then also you

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00:16:51,519 --> 00:16:53,919
can just go to Bullwark Capital Management
dot com or follow me on Twitter at

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00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:59,200
KYR radio and yeah, not too
hard to fund. Awesome, you should

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00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:07,680
do it than we so appreciate the
time today. Investment advisory services offered through

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Trek Financial LLC, n SEC registered
Investment Advisor. Information presentatives for educational purposes

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00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,880
only. It should not be considered
specific investment advice, does not taken to

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00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,519
consideration your specific situation, and does
not intend to make an offer or solicitation

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00:17:18,519 --> 00:17:22,039
for the sale or purchase of any
securities or investment strategies. Investments involve risk

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00:17:22,079 --> 00:17:23,920
and are not guaranteed, and past
performance is no guarantee of future results.

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00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,759
For specific tax advice on strategy,
consulted with a qualified tax professional before implementing

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00:17:27,759 --> 00:17:30,000
any strategy discussed herein
