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Yeah, absolutely. And you look
at the VIX. The VIX is down

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dramatically as well too. There's no
fear trade indicated there, and with the

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jobs as high as they are,
kind of goes back to that. I

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think at the lunchpin of the economy
is the jobs. The fact that there

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are tons of jobs available for every
worker that's out there. As long as

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there are jobs or as long as
there are jobs available, what it's doing

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is it's causing workers to that you
know, to still make their money and

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00:00:25,839 --> 00:00:30,839
to still spend money. You're listening
to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where you

9
00:00:30,879 --> 00:00:36,679
get valuable information you just can't find
anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times.

10
00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:42,479
You need the Financial Survival Network now
more than ever. Go to Financial

11
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:49,479
Survival Network dot com and get your
free newsletter in gift Financial Survival Network now

12
00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:57,960
more than ever, And welcome.
You are listening to the Financial Survival Network.

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I'm your host, Kerry lets Well. Good news today. Consumer confidence

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is rising and levels are high.
Even the consumer expectation index is up a

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bit. What does it mean?
What does it mean? Are we going

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to avoid a recession? Our good
friend Anthony Sakara is with us now,

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Anthony, great to have you back
on So consumer confidence, I don't know

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if it's a lagging indicator or a
leading indicator, or if it's a meaningless

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indicator. What's your take on it? Yeah, Kerrie, thank you for

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having me back. Always great to
be here. Yeah. I tend to

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look at consumer confidence as more of
a lagging indicator because consumers tend to think

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about what's happened, not necessarily about
what's going to happen. When it comes

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to just general consumers, there's a
lot of reasons to be optimistic about what's

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going on with the economy. You
know. The question that everyone wants to

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know is are we going to have
a recession? Is it going to be

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a soft landing hard landing if we
do have a recession. I think it

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was just a month about and a
half ago or so that the odds of

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a recession were like forty percent,
and I think now they've come down to

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something like twenty percent or maybe twenty
five percent, but they've dropped dramatically.

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And you know, I think it
was just six months ago or so that

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the question was not whether we were
going to have a recession, but how

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you short and shallow or how deep
and long? And now it's come to

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a point where the recession ers have
been talking about recession for so long that

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it's it's entirely possible we avoid one
completely. And I, you know,

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hope that that's the case. And
I think that is what consumers are focused

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on, and you know, in
the fact that we may not have a

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recession, and that's based on what's
happened so far in the past. Right,

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So the europe is obviously in a
recession. Now, they've got the

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Ukraine War going on, We've got
Putin's almost to almost coup, and so

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much going on. But I don't
know what's your take. I mean that

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that's gotta have a lot to do
with consumer expectations and consumer confidence, right

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what does I also think it's gonna
be short lived. I mean, you

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have to remember that when this whole
Russian war started, you know, it

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was all the media all the time
about that, and I last at about

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a week, and after about a
week, it kind of all went away,

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and then consumers forgot and it hasn't
been reflected in the stock market.

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Right. The stock market, you
know, has now officially out of bear

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market territory, which I think that's
even important to know that that doesn't need

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We're back at the record highs,
so I think a lot of consumers don't

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know that. You know, we
dropped twenty percent and then getting out of

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a bear market means we increased twenty
percent, but that doesn't bring us back

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to where we were. That brings
us only to, you know, sixteen

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percent back of where we were.
But the stock market is recovered or is

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in the process of recovering, and
that's despite everything that's going on Europe.

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I think what is the reason that
the stock market has on in there is

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because even though the economy is kind
of weakening around the edges, the labor

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market is still strong. And it
really boils down to the labor market.

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It boils down to the fact that
even though again that's the weakening it is,

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I think there's still seven jobs.
I'm sorry, I think there's still

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one point seven jobs available for every
worker. That's come down a little bit

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in the last six months, but
there's still a lot of jobs available.

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And as long as there's jobs available, as long as people are working,

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that's going to keep demand high.
And as long as the demand is high,

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people are still going to keep you
know, the people are still going

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to keep spending money, and that's
going to keep inflation elevated. So there's

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a lot of people that think that
the unemployment market has to come down dramatically,

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or I should say, the employed
have to come down the unemployment the

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unemployment rate has to go up dramatically
in order for a recession to occur.

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And we're just not seeing that.
And I don't really see the ampatus for

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that happening. Yeah, it will, it's so rates they paused, the

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fen paused, but they aggressively paused. Whatever the heck that me in Santhony.

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But you know, today we found
out also US new home sales uh

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exploded higher in May. They were
up twenty percent year over year. Uh.

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Is that like another little piece of
evidence that says maybe the recession you

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know, imagine if they threw a
recession and nobody came. Yeah, it's

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it's not just a little piece of
the puzzle. Home prices are a major

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piece of the puzzle. And if
you'd have asked me a year and a

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half ago, uh, you know, when when the Fed funds rate was

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at you know, twenty five basis
points you know that. You know,

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if you'd have told me that over
the next year, the Federal fund rates

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is gonna, you know, raise
from a quarter twenty five basis points up

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to five, you know, five
point two five, and that home sales

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are going to go up and prices
are going to increase twenty percent, I

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would have thought you were nuts.
That's just the opposite reaction of what really

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should be happening. And I'm going
to suggest that that's probably the number one

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fear of the FEDS is home sales
continuing. If we have another home sale

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explosion, that's going to cost the
FED to apt to raise rates more aggressively,

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and who knows what the end result
of that is going to be.

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That's that's probably that's a critical factor
and looking at whether we're gonna have a

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recession or not. Okay, So
I will point you to Lenar. I

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don't know if they're the largest out
there, but certainly among the largest home

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builders out there, and you know, as of today, they're at a

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five year high. It's pretty darn
remarkable, you think, with everything that's

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gone on to one five twenty one, and when we go back to twenty

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nineteen, it was at fifty.
It peaked back in December of the twenty

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twenty one over at one hundred and
sixteen. Now it's at one hundred and

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fifty. You know, just really
came up in the past couple of months.

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So if any stocks are going to
be sensitive to interest rates and the

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economy is going to be these home
builders, isn't it. Yeah. And

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the fact the other statistics that you
just quoted in one of the big company,

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you know, largest home builders in
the world. Uh, you know,

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the fact is that that's just more
proof that the housing market is strong,

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and high interest rates and strong housing
markets don't go together. Um.

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But that's that's kind of the way
it's been over the last few years too.

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When you think about even other asset
classes that normally correlate opposite each other.

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Think about stocks and bonds, right, Stocks and bonds usually correlate opposite

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each other, but for the last
few years they've kind of been acting in

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lockstep. Um. And you know, anything with housing interest rates, interest

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rates go up, housing goes down, demand goes down, bill prices go

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down. But that's not what's happening
right now. So we're in a pretty

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weird environment. And that's leaving a
lot of people wondering what do we do.

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Do we, you know, go
into the stock market now if all

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of a sudden we think that,
you know, there's only twenty percent chance

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that we're gonna have a recession,
do we do we overload the boat and

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get into the stock market now,
go overweight? Do we wait for a

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better time, knowing that we've been
waiting already for a year for a better

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time and it hasn't come, You
know, what do we do? That's

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the question that a lot of people
are are asking themselves at this point.

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Yeah, and that's a good question. I mean, all the major home

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builders are at five year highs now, and like who would think? And

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then we're looking at gold. Gold, you know, was hit an all

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time record and now it just basically
it's fading. It probably going to go

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below nineteen hundred again. So the
fear trade seems to be abating, doesn't

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it. Yeah. Absolutely, And
you look at the VIX The VIX is

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down dramatically as well too. There's
no fear trade indicated there, and with

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the jobs as high as they are, kind of goes back to that,

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I think at the lynchpin of the
economy, is the jobs, the fact

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that there are tons of jobs available
for every worker that's out there. As

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long as there are jobs or as
long as there are jobs available, what

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it's doing is it's causing workers to
you know, to still make their money

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and this still spend money. And
if you're an employer like I am,

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not only you know, does a
job market make it harder to get employees,

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but it also makes it harder to
keep employees. Got my payroll has

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gone up dramatically over the last year
and a half because I understand as a

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lot of business owners do that.
I would, you know, rather pay

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someone more than lose them to another
opportunity and then have to go hire someone.

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That's a more expensive proposition. And
you know, but what that does

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is that becomes a permanent part of
inflation. You know, early on with

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the inflation battle, the question was
is this inflation transitory or you know,

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is it going to be permanent?
And of course the Fed got that wrong

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a long time ago. I mean, now we're talking about a couple of

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years ago. But the answer is
both. You know, even if inflation

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comes down back down to two percent, which you know, that's that's a

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struggle that's a battle. But even
if that happens, the inflation it's already

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built in, that's not going anywhere. The races I've given my employees that

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have to get passed onto our consumers, that's not going anywhere. Inflation may

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come down to two percent and this
and the job market over the next couple

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of years may loosen up. But
I'm curious, you know, I would

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I'm not curious. I know how
the conversation would go if I went to

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one of my employees and go,
hey, remember all those big races you

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got, Well, you know,
inflation is now, Lord, we gotta

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we gotta take it back, so
it's work to work. Great, Yeah,

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it's just not going to go all
show up on Monday when you pull

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that sense on Fridays, say,
have a good look at this paycheck.

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It's the biggest one you're going to
get for the next year. Right,

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That's exactly right. And so so
that part of inflation, it's permanent.

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I will never get that back,
will never recover from that. You know,

158
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and I'm a small firm, But
think about the grocery stores, think

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about you know, the service industries
out there. You know that that you

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know have higher level management and so
on. The reality is inflation is here.

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What what's happened is already baked in. And maybe we slow down the

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rate of inflation going forward, but
we're not going to take back the inflation

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that's already occurred for a couple of
years. Agreed, agreed. So it's

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built into the base, and so
is the debt for that matter, and

165
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debt is going nowhere. But uh
so, these are the things I guess

166
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you really need to think about.
So you've got to remain defensive as far

167
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as more interest rates go. But
you can't throw out the baby with the

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00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,519
bathwater as it is, right,
Yeah, one percent. And you know,

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the question that I'm asked a lot
when I'm doing TV interviews and my

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00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,000
own clients is what do we do
at this point? And I like,

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you know, to focus on what
you can count on, and that is,

172
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if you have an income portfolio,
income in the form of interest and

173
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dividends that's a high quality portfolio,
then we know that over the next decade

174
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you can count on your interests and
dividends, and that might be the only

175
00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,480
thing you could count on. But
if you're getting three to four percent interest

176
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and dividends over the next decade.
You know, right now that sounds like

177
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well three to four percent, what's
that? I mean? I could get

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a you know, I get a
one or two year treasury for you know

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from four percent, or you know, a CD for five percent for one

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year. But at some point in
time, the economy is going to stop

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in the Federal Reserve is going to
lower interest rates. Interest rates are not

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going to go up forever. Inflation
is not going to stay high forever.

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There's always these epps and flows,
and I don't know whether it's six months,

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whether it's two years, but at
some point they're going to lower interest

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rates. And if you're stuck in
a one year treasury bill at five percent

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and that matures, you're now going
to be hurting yourself. So the reality

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is is that is that you know, I think if you set yourself up

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for long term income, long term
interest and dividends, it's a great time

189
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to capitalize on the fact that you
can get ten plus years at five percent

190
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maybe six percent on you All right, I see your point. You know,

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there are people among us. I
felt the same that the company,

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the country in the world is just
calling the drain. But maybe it's all

193
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just part of the cycles. We're
in a nasty one right now that hopefully

194
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we're gonna snap out of. But
does the dollars stay the reserve currency and

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what effect does that hand on the
whole scheme? Yeah, um, you

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know, you're absolutely right. The
dollar, of course has been strong,

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that's weakened a little bit. I'm
not concerned that it's gonna be uh dethroned

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as the world's reserve currency anytime soon. Now that doesn't mean that you know

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that that that decades down the road, that can happen. It's possible and

200
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no one knows for sure. But
now you start to get into worst case

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scenarios up you know, and people
will ask me the question as well too

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as a financial advisors. You know
what happens if the dollar becomes worthless?

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Um? And you know then then
at some point in time it becomes a

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silly conversation where you're gonna have to
deal with it. I don't have the

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answer for what happens if the dollar
goes away, the dollar becomes worthless,

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uh. And so that's that's like
asking a police officer, what are you

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going to do to protect me if
Russia decides to nuke me, you know,

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nuke the city. I mean,
there's there's just no answer at some

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point. But it's not something I'm
concerned with that. There's so many countries

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that um that own government bonds at
this point. Uh, you know,

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oil is traded in US dollars.
The simple fact is that it's so intertwined

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that if the US dollar went away, um, it would be it would

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be massive upheople. And I don't
think there's one person that has the answer

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to you know, what the what
the solution would be. I think if

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there was any one answer at all, it'd probably be real estate because if

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everything went where then you know what
do you need? You need roof over

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your house and food? Right,
Yeah, that would help, That would

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help? All right? Well,
Anthony, always enlightening speaking with you.

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Can you just tell us where we
find you and how we connect with you

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on the web and where we find
your podcast? Yeah? Absolutely so.

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My website is Anthony Sekharo dot com
Anthony Sekharo dot com and it's s acc

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A R O two CS one R
Anthony Sacar dot com. That leads you

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to all my other websites that we
have, so all right, and the

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link is in the show notes This
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.

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While you're there, why don't you
click subscribe so you can be among the

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00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:26,080
tens of thousands of people that receive
it weekly. When I publish it weekly,

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I'm a little lax in the summer. I have to admit we do

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it every two three weeks, but
to come full we'll be doing it weekly.

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Really appreciate you coming on. I've
got a question for Anthony or myself.

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Shoot me an email k l at
Karry Lutz dot com. Anthony,

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we'll talk to you again soon.
Gary. Thank you for having me,

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Thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying

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00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:56,919
times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever,