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Listen to The Dusone with Drewski on
Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever you

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00:01:07,519 --> 00:01:21,879
listen to podcasts. Hello everyone,
and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwood

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00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,719
Knocks. This is Adam from Will
here with my fantastic co host Dan Favallei,

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and we have a mailbag episode for
you. We've solicited questions from all

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of our listeners via Twitter and wherever
else you're listening, and we have plenty

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of questions. We did not have
to send out the desperation please for questions

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that we've had to do in some
of the previous mailbag episodes, So shout

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out to everyone who submitted a question
for this specific mailbag, even if we

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don't end up getting to it today. Before I ask Dan how he's doing.

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A couple of announcements to make.
One is that we're going to start

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making these Monday mailbags a more consistent
thing, So just start expecting questions to

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be submitted over the weekend. If
you think of anything throughout the week,

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just let us know via DM via
tweet at us. However, however,

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you can get our attention. We
will do our best to pay attention to

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it. And also we wanted to
encourage everyone to follow the entirety of the

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burgeoning Sports Math Network, which is
the parent site for NBA Math. We've

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we've started to do more at a
number of different Twitter accounts, so if

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you're interested, go ahead and give
them follows. We have MLB Math,

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which is MLB underscore math. We
have NHL Math, same format. We

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have QB Math which is the same
format, and then the overall Sports Math

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Network, which is the underscore sports
underscore Math. And with all that out

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of the way, how's it going, Dan? I am just in awe

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of how good that introduction was.
That's how it's going. How about yourself?

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I practiced it exactly zero times.
Wow, that's a lot. That's

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more than usual. I know it
is. I too was overwhelmed. I

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sent out the first mailbag solicitation and
like late Saturday night, thombest thing ever.

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I'll start to do that during the
week, although we might we have

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like three mail bags worth of questions
here. So the response on the morning

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I sent them out on or afternoon
on Sunday was great. I will be

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better about the bad times when people
are probably actually on Twitter maybe looking not

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well. I think the key is
that I didn't even make an effort too

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like I had nothing to do with
the that's a big deal elicitations, which

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is why people actually responded, that's
a big deal. Yeah, we're gonna

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go about like lowering my workload.
It's great. We're gonna look, we're

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gonna try and be super efficient with
these because we have so many questions,

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gonna tackle the ones that came from
hardwood knocks or via DM because I did

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have a DM one before I even
said about the solicitation. So let's start

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there. Long time listener Raoul Clements, and I hope I didn't butcher the

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pronunciation too bad. I'm just gonna
assume I butcher every pronunciation. But he

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asked, but what about a bletsoe
for Luke Canard trade. I guess you

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throw in lou Will to make the
money work, or a bunch of they're

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smaller salaries. I bet the Clippers
already regret the Luke Kenard extension, given

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that he's racking up DMPs letsos a
little bit more of a point guard than

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Beverly and Conard could replace JJ's role
once they trade JJ. I don't have

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a firm grasp on Knard or Bletso's
value, but I would think it's not

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super high for either guy. I'll
just seize this and answer it. Luke

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Kennard is incredibly difficult to move because
he signed an extension and so he's just

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operating under that poison pill provision.
So he's going to count as a huge

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not I don't want to get into
like the super granular nuance of the poison

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pill provision so that you guys already
do to now, I mean I do,

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but I'm not going to. But
just as like a as like a

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promer, he's going to count as
a huge incoming salary for the other team,

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but he's gonna count as a different
outgoing salary for the Clippers, and

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that just makes them unless you have
you know, the Knicks are floating out

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there, so you have a team
with cap space to take on additional salary,

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so you can make this work.
But it's just it's incredibly difficult for

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them to do so if you want, and I don't know that Bletso is

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the best fit for the Clippers because
of his own salary, they it does

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feel like they need someone who can
defend point guards better. Just I'm not

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sure Patrick Beverley is there. A
lot of people have mentioned this. It

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does seem like he's more equipped to
go after bigger guys now, and it'd

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be nice if they could get someone
else who could put pressure on the rim

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for them. And the name that
I've kept coming back to is de Lan

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Right. And I don't know if
you want to give up Lou Williams and

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Terrence Mann to get the lawn right, I personally would, just because I

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think of what Delan Right does defensively, and he's been hitting his set threes

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this year in Detroit, so my
assumption would be he could do more in

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Los Angeles that he could also get
to the rim a little bit more with

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the way that they're spacing works.
But you know, Bletso theoretically would be

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a good fit, but he's proved
to be too much of a zero on

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offense in the playoffs, where if
you got a Deln Right who's making essentially

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half of what Eric Bletso is making, you could maybe live with having to

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work around that a little bit more. Yeah, I mean, if we

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are able to avoid the poison pilled
provision and the financial nuances of this trade,

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and just look at the two players
in a vacuum, like I think

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it does make sense for both teams. Bledsoe might not be the ideal addition

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for the Los Angeles Clippers, but
he would certainly still be a helpful one

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just because of that point of attack
defense, the ability to get to the

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rim kind of be a steadying ball
handling force, which the Clippers do need

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occasionally, just since they are pretty
reliant on some jumpers and some isolation sets

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and all that. And Luke Kennard
really would be a great fit for New

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Orleans given how they've started to play
recently. With Zion Williamson handling the ball

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far more frequently both than transition and
running pick and rolls, He's gotten so

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much more comfortable taking control of possessions
and hitting kickout opportunities when the defenses compresses

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around him and route to the rim. So I do think adding another young

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shooter like Kennard who can also put
the ball on the floor out of those

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those catch and dribble situations would make
a lot of sense. But as Dan

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mentioned right at the top, like
the money is hard to figure out there.

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Yeah, and the Pelicans just the
luke Ar's not gonna do anything for

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their defense, which is where they
need the most help. But they just

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need guys who are like between sixty
seven and six eight at this point.

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There's just like that glaring lack of
stuff there. But I don't know,

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you know, do you want him
to fill the JJ Reddick role when you

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barely want JJ Reddick to fill the
JJ Reddick role right now? He's just

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not playing a ton So that is
interesting. And I don't think it's like

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either is an ideal fit, But
I think Kennard makes more sense for the

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Pelicans than Bloods does right now,
and vice versa. Correct, and Rabel

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and I went back and forth.
The DM's actually about other targets that people

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could look at. This one comes
from Miroslav Schuk, who is the last

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number one pick who won a championship
not assisted by another number one pick.

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Yeah, we thought this was going
to be a lot harder to research than

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it actually was. The answer is
Andrew Bogit on the twenty fourteen fifteen Golden

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State Warriors, because as stacked as
that team was, with Stephen Clay Thompson

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and Draymond Green. There weren't any
other number one picks on that on that

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squad, so yeah, they that
that would be the surprising answer to me.

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And if you go back a little
further, the next number one pick

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to win a championship as the only
number one pick on the roster would be

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Lebron James with the Miami Heat.
Greg Odin did not come around on those

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two championship rosters, so he it
was smooth sailing for him in that regard,

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even though Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh
together probably exceed the value of a

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00:08:24,079 --> 00:08:30,639
typical number one pick. Yeah,
that was that was interesting, and a

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lot of guys from the twenty two
thousand and three had him, And yeah,

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I'm like looking at the rosters now
and I don't think we missed anyone

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there. So that's it's it's really
shouldn't be Boga because he didn't necessarily win,

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like he wasn't the best player on
that Warriors team, But it is

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bogit And then, as you said, it's it's Lebron when you look at

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it through the other context, were
you surprised that it was that you didn't

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have to go back further or were
you surprised that it was not sooner.

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I think I was surprised. I
didn't really consider boged until we were through

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the number one picks. Lebron didn't
surprise me too much, just because you

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00:09:03,039 --> 00:09:07,240
know, we know that as stacked
as those teams were, that there weren't

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00:09:07,279 --> 00:09:11,080
other number one picks. But then, like I'm just looking at the list

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00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:16,799
of top overall selections and I think
the next one and I'm just eyeballing this

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00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,879
right now, it would be Tim
Duncan probably who didn't he won later in

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his career without any fellow number one
picks, because I believe David Robinson earlier

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in his career for his first title
was a number one pick back from nineteen

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eighty seven. Beyond that, like
I would, I would have to look

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and see if Shack played with any
like number one picks who were just sitting

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on the bench or something for those
Lakers teams or the Heat team that won

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00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,879
a title with him, I think
that he would probably be another answer.

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00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,840
So I guess, I guess I'm
surprised that there are so many, just

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given how few number one picks historically
do win titles, especially with the teams

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that drafted them, and none of
those none of those answers aside from Duncan

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00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:11,000
answered the question with the franchise that
selected them. I think I was surprised

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00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:15,240
that it came so soon. I
guess because in the Super Team era you

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just assume that more stars are congretting
together, so that this answer might have

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been tougher to figure out. But
did the number one pick? Sample size

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00:10:22,399 --> 00:10:24,320
is just so small relative everything,
so even if you're coming up with another

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00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,879
star, they did never be taken
at the number one pick, and not

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00:10:26,919 --> 00:10:31,720
every number one pick would comes to
star, So that was a very interesting

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00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:33,919
question. Hey everyone, before we
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00:10:33,919 --> 00:10:37,240
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out more. But that's BW hustle
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vary. Award is not an endorsement
Brian College and friend, Brian, how

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00:12:18,879 --> 00:12:22,600
do you pronounce his last name?
Toporek Am I getting it wrong? To

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00:12:22,759 --> 00:12:26,080
Pore Brian Toprex, Sorry, I
definitely to poor X Sorry, I've definitely

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00:12:26,159 --> 00:12:30,159
miss been miss pronouncing that for way
too long. Who is the MVP at

185
00:12:30,159 --> 00:12:31,240
the mid season mark? And why
is it Jo Well Embide? We had

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00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:33,879
other questions on this mailback too that
I was asking, when is the media

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00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:41,799
going to acknowledge that Nicola Yokich is
the clear MVP? I don't. I

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00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,120
don't want to be like the like
the Debbie Downer here when it comes to

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00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:50,639
not providing concrete answers. I can't. It's a tough MVP race. But

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00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,559
if you were to vote for Lebron
or Yokich or Embiide right now, I

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00:12:54,639 --> 00:12:58,799
don't have a good argument to say
that you're wrong for any three of those

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00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:03,039
guys. I might push back on
the Lebron one, like I get why

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00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,440
there's been such a momentum shift in
his direction, just because it feels like

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00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,480
he's not going to have that many
more opportunities to win MVP. I say

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00:13:11,519 --> 00:13:13,360
that before he plays for like another
twenty years at a high level. But

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00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:18,240
just the slump that the Lakers have
found themselves in without Anthony Davis available is

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00:13:18,279 --> 00:13:22,759
pretty telling. So like he's still
not lifting that team quite as much as

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00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:28,440
we would want from a true MVP
frontrunner. So like, I get the

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00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,480
argument, I just might push back
a little bit on that one. Specifically,

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00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,440
when you look at their half court
offensive numbers without him, I might

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00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,399
push back against your pushback there.
I think, Oh, I mean,

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they're terrible without him, but like
he's not elevating them to the level of

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a title contender single handedly right now, which it kind of feels like is

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the assumption, given how much credit
he's been receiving in these MVP conversations lately.

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I still think it's between Yokich and
Joel Embiid, And I'm willing to

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put Janie's name in there again.
Oh you're you're You're of the mind that

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James Harden belongs in there too,
aren't you. No? I mean,

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I don't think that he's played enough
for the team that he's on right now.

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I would also argue that the first
nine or ten games of the season

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needs to matter. I think that's
my old head yelling at cloud thing.

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I don't actually mind the way he
went about getting out of Houston, but

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I don't know that you can do
that and then win the MVP Award in

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the same season would be my only
grape. My pick would be indeed right

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now, by the way over Yokich
And I think it's just because of his

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dominance at both ends of the floor, which kind of leads us into this

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next question. This one comes from
Rodrigo Race. Oh no, I'm sorry.

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We'll get to yours in a second. But this one comes from t

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JR. What chance does Yokis have
to be the first center to ever lead

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the NBA and steals should still be
considered a horrible defender by I test Twitter,

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I feel like he doesn't have a
very good chance of leading the league

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in steals. So I mean,
like he's third right now, Like he's

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averaging one point seven per game,
which puts him behind t J. McConnell

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and Fred Van Vleet on significant digits
among qualified players. But like I just

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I guess I have trouble believing that
he's going to maintain that pace for the

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rest of the season, considering he
had not averaged more than one point four

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prior to this season and was at
one point two for his career and last

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season. So I'm just not sure
that the Nuggets really want him to be

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playing big enough minutes with a movement
heavy enough off defensive role to actually get

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there. But if he did happen
to win like yeah, like, he

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would still be perceived as a weak
defender who led the league and steal somehow.

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I guess like monte Ella style.
Maybe as strange as it might be

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to compare those two players, I
don't know where the perception of Nikolayoki or

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where the actuality of Nikoliokich is on
defense anymore relative to like the discourse,

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because he does have really good hands
for a big man, and I think

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I think we tend to get like
a biased view of that discourse too,

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just because the TPA graphs that we
put out at NBA Math, Like we've

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said multiple times, I try to
answer that kind of question like at least

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once every other week, that yes, it is inflating his numbers because he

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has interaction effects between assists and rebounds
and the way the defensive portion of the

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metric is calculated is by looking at
overall value, which is a pretty solid

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calculation, an offensive value, which
is a pretty solid calculation, and then

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assigning the defensive value to the difference, which is problematic. So his defense

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in all of those pictures and those
graphical representations is overinflated. So there tends

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to be pushed back against that.
But at the same time, like,

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he's not a bad defender, and
it doesn't take long watching the nuggets to

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realize that, so long as you're
watching the right way. Because he's weak

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at the point of attack, he's
not a great rim protector, but he

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does so many good things in between
those two terminuses of a defensive possession,

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not to mention that he's a great
defensive rebounder prevents second chance opportunities, which

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I personally think should matter more than
it typically does in defense conversations. Is

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he a great defender? No?
Is he a bad defender? No,

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Like he's he's a good, passable
defensive big. And with as we see

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with so many conversations, it's it's
hard for people to accept that the middle

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ground is actually the correct answer because
we tend to veer so far towards extremes

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with almost every topic. Yeah,
I'm totally with you. There's the middle

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ground. I don't think he's terrible. I don't know that I would go

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as far as good or passible,
because I do think you want your big

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like him, who's not going to, like you said, be this lockdown

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guy from the point of attack.
It needs to be more. I don't

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want to say, he needs to
be more consistent around the rim where he's

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not going to get burned by an
extra pass. And look, the numbers

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are going to bear that out.
The Nuggets have had trouble defending the rim

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this season, and you have to
put some of that on there. They're

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starting big man, and I do
again, I think he has great hands

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you talked about is defensive, rebounding, and I do think there are certain

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situations where he's can be an okay
rim protector, like if he doesn't have

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to, you know, react or
pivot as you know, I guess it's

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instantaneously to make those reads, it
ends up being huge where he ends up

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being fine there. But if you're
going to have a big who's going to

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anchor an elite defense, it's just
I don't know that it's going to be

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him. I think you can build
a very good defense around him. I

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just don't know that he's ever going
to be like one of the three most

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important anchors of that defense in any
given line up. From a positive perspective,

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that doesn't change anything he does on
offense. And I do agree with

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you that there's just this people think
that he gets cooked all the time on

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defense, and it's just and when
you watch him, it's really just not

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like that, because even if he
defends high, sometimes he can make plays

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up when he is really high.
No, you don't want like he's not.

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I'm trying to think of what,
but who do you want him to

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be? I guess as a big
man will be like, no, he's

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not Anthony Davis. And he's definitely
not Rudy Gobert. But not everyone's going

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to be Rudy Gobert. And there
are people who argue that Anthony Davis is

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a bad defender because the bed off
splits. So I think ultimately he's better

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at like elongating possessions and forcing the
offense to have to make a few extra

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decisions and settle for a marginally less
effective shot than he is at just like

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straight up ending a possession or making
a turnover forcing play like we see Rudy

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Gobert who's so good at recovering and
Anthony Davis who can cover so much ground

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and operate from the weak side and
come over to help. And Yokich doesn't

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like do any of those highlight worthy
plays very frequently. It's just it's more

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that he makes these subtle, correct
decisions that make the offense's job harder,

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and I think there's value in that. And there's also value in him just

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being in the right spots too,
when he's even getting burned around the rim.

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It's I think it's probably more so
of a physical limitation. It's not

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any it's not all the time where
he's doing something. I mean, you

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even said he's not making these incorrect
decisions, so it's not There might be

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an element of physical limitations here where
he's just not going to have the same

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pivot quickness or lateral quickness in those
situations where there is the extra pass.

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So yeah, I don't think he's
a terrible defender. It's it is I

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guess the the eye test versus stats
twitter though I don't. I guess I

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never see those debates on whether Yoki
just is a is a bed offend,

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right. I feel like it's just
stated that they happened in the NBA math

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mentions a lot. I need to
read the NBA math mentions a little bit

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more, apparently, but I agree
with basically everything you just said. This

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00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:33,240
question comes from Zach Williams. What
do the Kings do about Buddy Healed?

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00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,680
I still think they've got to move
him, Like this core just isn't gonna

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work, and his shooting alone has
so much value that you're going to be

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00:20:45,519 --> 00:20:49,359
able to find a home for him
and commit long term to a backcourt of

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00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,119
darn Fox and Tyres. However,
like you have those pieces in place,

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00:20:53,559 --> 00:20:57,480
Healed is a luxury item for a
good team. He shouldn't really be a

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00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:03,039
centerpiece on a rebuild. And yeah, I mean, I think the only

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00:21:03,079 --> 00:21:06,680
answer is is that he's eventually going
to get moved out of Sacramento for a

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00:21:06,799 --> 00:21:10,920
value. Probably. I was just
very distractive because I was thinking about our

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Yokich conversation. I hate that we
get whenever there's an MVP discussion, we

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get put in a place where we're
like discrediting what's one of the five to

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00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,279
seven best players in the NBA.
It leaves me distraught. I want to

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00:21:22,279 --> 00:21:26,400
make it clear to I think Kola
Yoki is spectacular. I'm sorry, I

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00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,240
can't. I've been struggling with that. Whenever we do awards talk or you

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00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:33,319
know who, would you rather that
we end up like sort of putting down

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00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:37,200
really good players Buddy Heeled For me, though, I would agree they need

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00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,519
to move him. He's shooting over
his past fourteen games, He's going through

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at thirty point two percent from three. I think they just doesn't look interested.

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00:21:45,279 --> 00:21:49,200
They've tried playing him with Halbert and
Daron Fox together. It's just not

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working. And I don't know that
can ever work long term. What's interesting,

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00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,000
though, or I guess difficult here
is I don't think that you can

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just he has three years and sixty
two point five and left on his deal.

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I don't think that you can just
move him for the sake of moving

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00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,640
him. I still think because shooting
has value, and of how important he

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00:22:08,799 --> 00:22:14,680
theoretically could be to your team as
a shooter if you get better, because

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00:22:14,759 --> 00:22:17,400
look, he's going to shoot better
from three, Like he's not shooting sub

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00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:18,799
thirty one percent from three for the
rest of the season. He's too good

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00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:21,720
of a shooter. The statues bear
that out. He's been one of the

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00:22:21,759 --> 00:22:26,240
elite three point weapons over the past
few years. I just think that can

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00:22:26,279 --> 00:22:29,079
you trade him for like a you
know something? I was thinking, like,

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00:22:29,079 --> 00:22:33,079
would you do Buddy Healed for Gorgy
Jang and Justice Winslow if you were

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00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,920
Memphis or Sacramento right now? And
maybe that's tougher because Justice Winslow is barely

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00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:41,119
he just started playing for Memphis.
But if you're you know, can you

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00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,200
do Buddy Healed for Buddy Heal for
Aaron Gordon? Essentially be interesting framework,

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00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,559
right. I think as long as
you're getting back a shorter term contract,

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00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,240
then you should be interested from Sacramento, especially if those wheels are greased with

340
00:22:53,319 --> 00:22:56,559
like a second round pick or two
just to get something. Yeah, I

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00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,799
look like you can't expect to get
something Stanchiel back And I think that whoever

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00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:07,079
ends up landing Buddy he'll too,
just based on the history of his three

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00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,480
point shooting, Like he's going to
play better than he is right now,

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most likely when he's motivated on a
good team or even a more capable one

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00:23:15,759 --> 00:23:19,000
than Sacramento has been this season.
Like whoever lands him is going to get

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00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:26,759
good value. Next question comes from
Rodrigo Ray this time, and I hope

347
00:23:26,759 --> 00:23:30,839
I'm not pronouncing that too poorly.
Why are the Celtics so poor without Smart?

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00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:37,519
Is it something like the Warriors without
Draymond Green. Yeah, I think

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00:23:37,519 --> 00:23:41,359
there's something to be said for losing
a player who is both important on the

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00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:45,359
stat sheet and is an emotional heartbeat
of the team. You know, Draymond

351
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:49,880
Green motivates the Warriors so much with
his play and with his passion, And

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00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,920
it's similar for the Boston Celtics with
Marcus Smart, like just you know how

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00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,960
hard he's going to play on both
ends of the court whenever he is healthy

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00:23:59,039 --> 00:24:02,319
unavailable. And I do think it's
hard to overcome that kind of loss,

355
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,960
even if he isn't one of the
team's most important players. From an x's

356
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,720
and O's perspective, they haven't had
the defensive weaponry on the perimeter to really

357
00:24:10,759 --> 00:24:14,200
account for that loss, and it
hasn't helped that Kemba Walker hasn't been what

358
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,240
they need either, Like they need
aggression and the ability to get to the

359
00:24:18,319 --> 00:24:22,160
rim. And when the defense is
only mediocre without Smart, like that's that's

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00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:27,279
ultimately too big of a shortcoming for
the Celtics to remain in that upper echelon

361
00:24:27,319 --> 00:24:32,599
of the East as we've seen.
Yeah, and I don't know that it

362
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,880
helps. I mean it looks smart. It's such a smart defensive player where

363
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,200
it's just like he can be in
so many places at the right time,

364
00:24:40,279 --> 00:24:41,759
and he's really going to make sure, you know, he's not going to

365
00:24:41,839 --> 00:24:44,960
help off of guys if in me, you know, he's not going to

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00:24:45,039 --> 00:24:47,279
help off of the wrong guy.
And you can look at that when the

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00:24:47,319 --> 00:24:52,079
Celtics are allowing a you know,
a ton fewer corner threes when he's on

368
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,200
the court, and he's going to
put more pressure without getting burned than some

369
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,440
of these other guys. And I
don't know how much you know this necessarily

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00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:02,039
isn't a smart thing. But there
is also the element of high variants to

371
00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:04,880
Boston's offense, which is tenth in
points scored per possession when you factor out

372
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:10,759
garbage time. But they only the
Blazers take more pull up jumpers per game,

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and they're twenty eighth in the frequency
with which their shots come at the

374
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:17,000
rim. So when you're relying at
heavily on jumpers, you're just going to

375
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:21,839
have those high variance, high leverage
nights, and it opens you up now

376
00:25:21,839 --> 00:25:25,079
without Smart, where there might be
multiple ways that you get burned. I

377
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:29,599
think with Smart, though, they're
probably a substantially better team than we'd seen.

378
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But I still view them they're probably
more than one player away from being

379
00:25:33,039 --> 00:25:37,839
a genuine title contender, right,
I think so. But I also think

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00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:44,079
that there's enough potential for internal improvement
that that player might be on the roster.

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00:25:45,519 --> 00:25:49,920
It wouldn't surprise me if Kemba started
playing more like the Kemba Walker we

382
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:55,240
saw in Charlotte. That's true,
and that was enough for them to reascend.

383
00:25:55,599 --> 00:25:57,400
If Peydon Pritchard starts to look like
he did at the beginning of the

384
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:03,519
season, if Grant Williams has a
sudden breakout at Tristan Thompson starts figuring things

385
00:26:03,559 --> 00:26:07,000
out, or they give more minutes
to Robert Williams the third and he starts

386
00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:11,119
to stay out of foul trouble and
make more of a positive impact around the

387
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,640
rim. On a more consistent basis, it feels like the Celtics are more

388
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,319
than one piece away, and yet
they still have the internal ability to fill

389
00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:23,640
those holes without needing to go on
the trade market and let Danny Ainge do

390
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,319
what Danny Age wants to do,
which is almost make a trade and then

391
00:26:26,319 --> 00:26:30,519
claim it was closer than it was. He's made moves, but they typically

392
00:26:30,559 --> 00:26:34,400
come in the offseason. He's just
the master of not of like fake midseason

393
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,599
stuff. No last question coming from
a hardwoo Knox account itself before we get

394
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,559
into others. Noah Odage, are
you ready to stop doubting and believe in

395
00:26:42,599 --> 00:26:47,720
the Knicks as a true playoff team. I'm assuming that's aimed at me,

396
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,200
I would think so. I feel
like you've been more outspoken about the Knicks.

397
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,039
I mean, yeah, Like we're
thirty four games into the season,

398
00:26:56,039 --> 00:26:59,960
they're five, They're playing five hundred
basketball, They've scored more points than they

399
00:27:00,079 --> 00:27:04,720
allowed. There are still signs of
possible regression. I opponent three point shooting

400
00:27:04,799 --> 00:27:10,119
eventually needing to regress to the mean
or progressed to the mean here, But

401
00:27:11,039 --> 00:27:14,079
this is clearly a better team than
we assumed at the beginning of the season.

402
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,599
Yes, and look, the defense
has been great for them. And

403
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,079
I'm gonna have to do a make
cultla here. I think because I had

404
00:27:22,079 --> 00:27:26,160
a filter on of cleaning mcglass when
I was looking at the Celtics stats that

405
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,799
said that they were tenth in offensive
efficiency, they are actually thirteenth in point

406
00:27:30,799 --> 00:27:34,599
scored per possession, and the defense
is still holding strong at fourteenth and points

407
00:27:34,599 --> 00:27:38,920
allowed per possession. But they've definitely
been on the down swing without Marcus Smart.

408
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:44,200
The thing with the Knicks is just
that they're twenty fourth in offense.

409
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,799
They don't take a ton of threes, even though they're hitting them at a

410
00:27:47,839 --> 00:27:49,799
reasonable clip, and so you know, we can look at the defensive aggression

411
00:27:49,799 --> 00:27:52,400
where I don't view them as a
top three defensive team, but maybe this

412
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,759
is the season where that happens.
Because the third best defensive team is allowing

413
00:27:56,799 --> 00:28:00,079
one hundred and eight point one hundred
and eight point four points per owners possessions,

414
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,960
and the Knicks are watchable, They
are eminently watchable, and maybe the

415
00:28:04,039 --> 00:28:11,240
fan, the deatingly disenchanted fan in
me, is distraught that in a season

416
00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:15,079
where the twenty one draft class is
expected to be so good, the Knicks

417
00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:19,279
are just, we'll say, wonderfully
mediocre, to the point that yeah,

418
00:28:19,319 --> 00:28:22,240
okay, maybe they end up with
a lottery pick, or maybe they don't

419
00:28:22,319 --> 00:28:23,599
end up with a lottery pick,
but now you're missing yet another chance to

420
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:29,119
get that blue chip cornerstone because I
don't think they have him yet. And

421
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,200
it's I just the way Mettell Robinson
plays when he's healthy. I think he

422
00:28:33,279 --> 00:28:34,440
can be a really good player,
but not someone you build around. The

423
00:28:34,519 --> 00:28:37,640
endgame with Julius Randall is temporary.
That's just Julius Randall has been in.

424
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,200
He deserved to be an All Star
this season. That's totally fine. I

425
00:28:41,279 --> 00:28:44,880
don't. I guess it's too soon
to write off R. J. Barrett,

426
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,599
but he needs to like and it's
too soon to write off or J.

427
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,799
Barrett, but that's the really the
only guy. I don't know if

428
00:28:51,799 --> 00:28:52,960
it's quickly where you look at and
saying, oh, we're going to rebuild

429
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,039
around him, and so that's maybe
it's hard for me to separate that in

430
00:28:57,079 --> 00:29:02,240
the East though, just relative to
what's happening, I guess you can just

431
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:03,440
say, at this point, should
the Knicks be considered like they're going to

432
00:29:03,519 --> 00:29:07,160
finish you know, tenth, they're
better at this point if we want to

433
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,839
consider the plan because all likelihood,
yeah, they're still too close to dropping

434
00:29:10,839 --> 00:29:11,640
out for me to be like,
oh, they're going to finish sixth.

435
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,160
And absolutely get a game in the
first round. I still want to go

436
00:29:15,319 --> 00:29:18,720
there. They're currently what is it? Yeah, I mean it's only two

437
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,799
and a half games that separate them
from the Atlanta Hawks, who I think

438
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,759
we have to assume are going to
improve as the season progresses, if only

439
00:29:26,799 --> 00:29:32,279
because they get healthier. The Wizards
have been coming on strong. They're tied

440
00:29:32,319 --> 00:29:34,519
with the Hawks and the standings right
now despite playing two fewer games. So

441
00:29:34,599 --> 00:29:38,039
yeah, I mean like the Knicks
aren't by no means like safely in the

442
00:29:38,039 --> 00:29:44,200
playoff lock picture, but yeah,
I mean they deserve to be strongly considered

443
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,960
and probably favored for one of those
top ten spots. This is a good

444
00:29:48,039 --> 00:29:52,319
lead in to another Knicks question,
how does Alfred Payton start? And this

445
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:59,079
comes from Marek Barnett. I will
Alfred Payton is not currently starting because he's

446
00:29:59,119 --> 00:30:03,079
injured. I don't know if this
is just a Tibbs wants to, you

447
00:30:03,079 --> 00:30:07,960
know, maintain continuity. But I
will say one of the effects of Quickly

448
00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:11,880
not being the starter is we've been
getting to see some like Quickly Frankie Lakeena

449
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,200
minutes, and I gotta say those
make my heart warm and fuzzy. I

450
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,640
don't know, why are they trying
to showcase his value? What would be

451
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,279
the argument against You know, I
think everyone's gonna be like, hey,

452
00:30:22,319 --> 00:30:25,599
just start quickly. I actually won't
really get too bent out of shape about

453
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,480
that, but why wouldn't you start, you know, Derek Rose at this

454
00:30:29,559 --> 00:30:33,640
point, get over Alfert Payton again. Alfort Payton has not started the past

455
00:30:33,759 --> 00:30:37,440
two games for the Knicks because he
has a hamstring injury, I believe.

456
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:40,839
So do you have an argument for
why Alfred Payton should start over Derek Rose

457
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:45,400
or Emmanuel Quickly? I got nothing
there aside from the fact that Tom Thibodeau

458
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,480
as the coach and he's done a
fantastic job. But Tibbs is still gonna

459
00:30:48,519 --> 00:30:52,720
TIBs, and you know that he
loves his veteran players, and he is

460
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:59,240
a stickler for being stubborn within the
same season, and because Alfred Payton has

461
00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:02,759
been starting all or Alfred Payton is
probably going to continue starting while he's on

462
00:31:02,799 --> 00:31:06,440
the roster because that's what Tibbs does. And the argument is if he was

463
00:31:06,559 --> 00:31:07,559
shooting lights out from three, where
it's like, you know, we can't

464
00:31:07,599 --> 00:31:11,119
really trust Derek Rose to do that, but you're gonna trust Derek Rose just

465
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,759
more to play alongside I think Julius
Randol and Barrett, or maybe he just

466
00:31:15,799 --> 00:31:18,240
looks at it as hey, Peyton
is the most accomplished playmaker that they have,

467
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,519
and you want to make sure that
you know you have Julius Randol there

468
00:31:22,519 --> 00:31:26,480
too, but you don't want to
make sure that someone's cannibalizing too many possessions

469
00:31:26,519 --> 00:31:29,440
from Barrett. I don't know.
I don't know the samples big enough with

470
00:31:29,599 --> 00:31:32,400
the Derek Rose era, and then
we don't have a ton with you know,

471
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,799
the Neil Keena Quickly stuff. But
I would argue that Alpha Payton should

472
00:31:34,839 --> 00:31:38,440
not be finishing the season on this
team, but the next again they're they're

473
00:31:38,519 --> 00:31:41,400
tied for fifth, fourth in the
East. Whatever. It is, a

474
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:47,160
five hundred, So Tibbs knows a
lot that we don't. Tubbs as I'm

475
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:52,079
just laughing at the name. What
is Colin Sexton's efficiency from ten how fish

476
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,839
is context and from ten to fifteen
feet out? I used ten to sixteen

477
00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:00,640
feet just because it was easier to
look up with on Basketball Reference shooting fifty

478
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,039
four point three percent from ten to
sixteen feet Bonus, that is the fourth

479
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,640
highest clip from ten to sixteen feet
among thirty nine players with at least fifty

480
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:13,640
such attempts this season. Would you
care to venture? Can you guess any

481
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,799
of the players that are in the
top three? I guarantee you're not going

482
00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:22,440
to get two of them. Yeah, I mean my my immediate instinct is

483
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,759
to go with Chris Paul, Nikola
Vukovic and Chris Middleton. Okay, you

484
00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:31,519
got exactly zero. I thought you
would have gotten Kevin Durant. He's the

485
00:32:31,559 --> 00:32:37,039
other two. You weren't getting Tias
Jones fifty seven point nine percent between ten

486
00:32:37,079 --> 00:32:39,839
to sixteen feet. This one,
this one got me, but it shouldn't

487
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:44,559
have. Rishawn Holmes seventy one percent. That little push shot and it's definitely

488
00:32:44,599 --> 00:32:47,279
not coming from ten feet out all
the time, but shout out at least

489
00:32:47,279 --> 00:32:52,759
like high on the leaderboard. No, oh cool, awesome? Let me

490
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:59,039
who who is your guest? First
guest was Chris Paul? Ye fooch was

491
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,839
is seventeen at forty seven percent,
and that was your highest the guesses,

492
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:07,319
So I am that's you know,
Chris Paul's at forty four eight Chris Paul's

493
00:33:07,319 --> 00:33:08,880
at forty four point eight percent.
But he only likes to take like those.

494
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:14,200
He's probably shooting astronomically high from like
unlog mid rangers, So that's what

495
00:33:14,279 --> 00:33:17,920
it's gotta be. That's still a
good clip ultimately, But I mean I'm

496
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:22,839
still like a little concerned about that
Colin Sexton stat Like it's great that he's

497
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:27,839
hitting those. I don't really love
that he's shooting a higher percentage of his

498
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,880
shots from both ten to sixteen feet
and sixteen feet to the three point line

499
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:36,440
this season than he was last year
and more than he did as a rookie.

500
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,799
Also, like, that's not really
the way we want to see those

501
00:33:38,839 --> 00:33:43,759
shot profiles trending as good as he's
been this season, Like that might be

502
00:33:43,839 --> 00:33:46,519
a valid knit to pick at,
Yeah, and I don't. It's come

503
00:33:46,519 --> 00:33:51,039
at the expense of mostly looks at
the rim. And I don't if he

504
00:33:51,119 --> 00:33:52,680
was taking more threes that would bother
me as much. But his three point

505
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,720
at tempt rate is down. Still
He's still a good shooter, mind you,

506
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:00,599
But I totally agree with you.
That is something to to sort of

507
00:34:00,599 --> 00:34:04,200
watch, But I remain I will
continue to buy Colin Sexton stock. Oh

508
00:34:04,279 --> 00:34:07,799
yeah, this is this is very
much like a minor gripe like Sexton has

509
00:34:07,839 --> 00:34:12,440
been fantastic, would you. So
before we get into some of the other

510
00:34:12,519 --> 00:34:19,679
questions that have to do with TPA, gavy ash Canazi ask what's t PA.

511
00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:22,079
I feel like this might be the
question for the founder and editor in

512
00:34:22,159 --> 00:34:24,639
chief of NBA, math Adam frommel
I don't know about you, though,

513
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,800
Yeah, I'm just like not entirely
sure how to approach answering that it stands

514
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:34,559
for total points at it. It
looks at a player's contributions relative to league

515
00:34:34,559 --> 00:34:38,719
average production based on how many possessions
they've played, such that an average player

516
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,920
slightly above average player who spends a
lot of time on the floor is valued

517
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,400
highly, as is a guy who's
way above average and a smaller sample.

518
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:52,400
So ultimately, it's a way of
blending together per possession efficiency and volume to

519
00:34:52,039 --> 00:34:58,199
have a single number, single number
metric. We do not typically recommend using

520
00:34:58,199 --> 00:35:00,840
it as the end all be' all, as gospel or anything like that.

521
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:06,679
The defensive portion of the metric is
particularly shaky and should always be blended with

522
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,639
the eye test. But yeah,
I mean, like, the beauty of

523
00:35:09,159 --> 00:35:13,440
TPA is that we can calculate it
all the way back into the early nineteen

524
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,199
seventies, which is not the case
for many of the catch all numbers.

525
00:35:15,519 --> 00:35:22,599
So we're sacrificing a little bit in
terms of accuracy for that historical element that

526
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:27,679
was It's almost like you've invented the
stat It's like that, that's how good

527
00:35:27,679 --> 00:35:30,320
the explanation was. This is going
to tie into it. And so it

528
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,599
look if you want to make the
call of Yoka, just MVP case,

529
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:43,079
it's coming right right now here we
got Anthony Anthony Moore. Latchie asked how

530
00:35:43,079 --> 00:35:51,880
many teams have entire combined tpa's less
than Yokich by himself. So I didn't

531
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,760
know what to expect what I dove
into this question just because summing all of

532
00:35:54,760 --> 00:36:00,000
the t pas on a team isn't
something that we typically do, just because

533
00:36:00,039 --> 00:36:05,000
there are like weird interaction effects and
all that with that process. But I

534
00:36:05,039 --> 00:36:07,320
did it any way to answer this
question, and like the results. They

535
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,519
passed the sniff test. You know, like if you look at the bottom

536
00:36:10,559 --> 00:36:15,239
five teams by summed TPA of all
contributors, both the ones who are on

537
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,719
the roster now and who are on
the roster earlier in the season, and

538
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,159
we're traded, et cetera, et
cetera. The bottom five are are the

539
00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:27,239
Minnesota Timberwolves at minus three sixty six, the Orlando Magic at minus two seventy

540
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,559
one point nine, the Cleveland Cavaliers
at minus two forty nine point eight,

541
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,920
the Oklahoma City Thunder at minus two
forty nine point three, and the Sacramento

542
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,639
Kings at minus two twenty six,
which I think you would agree, like,

543
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,239
those are the bottom feeding teams this
season, right right, Yeah,

544
00:36:39,559 --> 00:36:45,400
So the top five we have the
Brooklyn Nets just barely missed out. I

545
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,760
would assume they'll move into the top
five as they get even more out of

546
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,320
their Big three. But the Phoenix
Suns at one twenty point five, the

547
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:57,480
Los Angeles Clippers at one twenty six
point eight, the Los Angeles Lakers at

548
00:36:57,519 --> 00:37:00,400
one fifty five point five, the
Milwaukee Bucks at two sixteen point zero,

549
00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:04,920
and the Utah Jazz at two sixty
four point zero. Can you just say

550
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,880
the number one team again? That
would be the Utah Jazz. Yeah,

551
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:14,719
just wanted to at two hundred sixty
four joints three. Sorry, but Yokich

552
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:19,440
has two hundred and seventy seven point
seven TPA, which would mean that he's

553
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:24,719
out producing every team in the league. Now to follow that up even with

554
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:31,320
his contributions. The Nuggets are seventh
in these summed individual contributions because the rest

555
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:37,039
of the roster has been so ridiculously
negative, So their sum is eighty three

556
00:37:37,119 --> 00:37:42,679
point four including his two seventy seven
point seven. So yeah, Yokich single

557
00:37:42,679 --> 00:37:49,880
handedly has more TPA than every team
in the NBA. Second place in individual

558
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:54,360
TPA is Jannis at one seventy eight
point five, So only the Jazz and

559
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:59,000
the Bucks, which obviously include his
contributions, are ahead of him. So

560
00:37:59,039 --> 00:38:00,599
it's not like just Yo, I
think we're going to see that kind of

561
00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:04,480
thing with a lot of stars.
I was just surprised to see how those

562
00:38:04,559 --> 00:38:10,960
numbers worked out. We have another
stat related question, Chris as Why does

563
00:38:12,039 --> 00:38:16,199
defensive point saved say Dylan Brooks is
a bad defender when he's a great on

564
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:22,000
ball defender. Yeah, Dan and
I talked about this one before we started

565
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,480
recording, just because it is such
a good question. I think it's similar

566
00:38:25,519 --> 00:38:30,639
to what we've seen in the past
from guys like Avery Bradley and Klay Thompson,

567
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:37,880
where their statistical profile just doesn't necessarily
lend itself to sterling defensive metrics because

568
00:38:38,119 --> 00:38:44,599
they aren't producing steals and blocks at
an elite rate. They're not really strong

569
00:38:44,639 --> 00:38:47,400
defensive rebounders, and so much of
their best work tends to come in on

570
00:38:47,519 --> 00:38:52,280
ball situations and the result of a
good on ball possession is usually a pass

571
00:38:52,599 --> 00:38:55,519
so that somebody else has to take
a shot, and that's just not going

572
00:38:55,599 --> 00:39:00,159
to be captured by these metrics.
Plus, like the Grizzlies have been a

573
00:39:00,159 --> 00:39:05,000
mediocre defensive team, so he's not
going to benefit from any like team effects

574
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,079
in this particular metric. So I
think it's pretty clear that if you watch

575
00:39:09,199 --> 00:39:13,039
him, you see how physical and
how relentless he is, and how many

576
00:39:13,079 --> 00:39:16,760
good on ball skills he has.
It's just not being reflected in those stats

577
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:22,159
because these catchall metrics aren't going to
capture anything. And it's just yet another

578
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:27,400
reason that you know, the eye
test and stats are not these polar extremes

579
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,400
that are in constant conflict. There
pieces of the same toolbox meant to be

580
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:35,320
used together, and in this case, like you can create a nice balance

581
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,000
where like Dylan Brooks isn't doing enough
to be viewed as an elite defender,

582
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:42,000
even if he might look like it
on some possessions, But the eye test

583
00:39:42,119 --> 00:39:45,199
is also making it pretty clear that
like the numbers that says one of the

584
00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:50,880
worst offenders in the league are obviously
wrong. Yeah, and look, he's

585
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,920
an important part of what is the
twelfth rank defense right now, and so

586
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:58,280
you can call that mediocre, but
to be with the injuries that they've dealt

587
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:01,320
with too in Memphis or the lack
of availability and the lack of availability for

588
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:06,639
them to be purely from a statistical
standpoint, like I would consider anything close

589
00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:10,840
to fifteen like mediocre. And look, opponents are averaging and I know this

590
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:15,519
isn't perfect. Just point seven seven
points per possession against him in isolation this

591
00:40:15,559 --> 00:40:19,679
season, an incredibly small sample size, but that is in the seventy fifth

592
00:40:19,679 --> 00:40:23,360
percentile. If you were looking for
some Dylan Brooks love. That doesn't for

593
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:28,400
the TPA questions, are you said
a little bit? I figured, but

594
00:40:28,519 --> 00:40:32,920
I'm willing to move on Jaden McDaniels. We have a question about Jaden McDaniels.

595
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,920
This is from Colin Matisse Krause give
us Jaden McDaniels content. So the

596
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:43,159
question is, what's Jaden McDaniels the
ceiling. Now, I'm not trying to

597
00:40:43,199 --> 00:40:45,280
insult anybody or make a joke here, but for anyone doesn't know, Jay

598
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:51,239
McDaniels plays with the Minnesota Timberwolves,
and they've been all over the place this

599
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,599
season. Uh you know they did
just they just hired Chris Finch's coach like

600
00:40:54,639 --> 00:41:00,119
three seconds after they fired Saunders as
the Ryan Saunders as they're their head coach,

601
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:05,519
their their defense. They've barely had
Karl Anthony Towns this season. He

602
00:41:05,599 --> 00:41:07,639
and Daniel Russell, by the way, fun fact, I've played in just

603
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,960
five games together since the trade,
which was over a year ago, and

604
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,199
I know a lot of like weird
stuff has happened, but that's just an

605
00:41:14,199 --> 00:41:19,519
incredibly low number for them. Anyway. Their weakest point, their weakest position

606
00:41:20,039 --> 00:41:22,400
or spot in the rotation, I
would say, is that four spot.

607
00:41:22,679 --> 00:41:27,519
Jade McDaniels has given them someone who
can fill it capably on defense for sure,

608
00:41:27,679 --> 00:41:30,480
like that. This guy's just all
over the place for someone who is

609
00:41:30,119 --> 00:41:34,039
only us only you know, six, nine is still pretty big. His

610
00:41:34,079 --> 00:41:37,400
block rate is absurd and he makes
like real plays. When I saw I

611
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,320
did actual research for this question.
I went back and watched a lot of

612
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:45,840
Jade McDaniels. He can break up
plays from behind, He doesn't need to

613
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:49,440
be set to make these plays without
failing either. He does. He can

614
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,280
have really good hands at points too, but really just a you know it

615
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:55,119
can as a helper or just someone
who's gonna make a play at the rim

616
00:41:55,159 --> 00:41:59,559
absolutely huge for them. I would
say, a pretty good rebounder for his

617
00:41:59,599 --> 00:42:02,159
position into the swing. Skills for
him is gonna be what is he gonna

618
00:42:02,159 --> 00:42:07,360
do on offense? And he's shooting
thirty five point one percent from three on

619
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,360
five point two attempts for thirty six
minutes, which is fine. They're not

620
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,920
going to need him to do stuff
off the dribble a ton, but it's

621
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:17,760
forty one point nine percent on two's
is troubling. He's only shooting forty eight

622
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:22,119
point one percent inside of three feet. What gives me maybe hope for him

623
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:27,880
is I think it was the game
against a game against Chicago where he's put

624
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,079
the ball on the floor and made
some plays where like guys have bounced off

625
00:42:30,079 --> 00:42:32,920
his shoulder and he was able to
create separation. And so if he can

626
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,239
do that, I would think he'll
eventually become a better finisher around the rim.

627
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,880
I don't know if he'll ever be
someone you could trust as an off

628
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:44,039
the dribble shooter, per se,
but as someone who could put the ball

629
00:42:44,039 --> 00:42:46,920
on the floor and score at the
rim and then knock down standstill threes and

630
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:52,039
then be let's say you like your
second best defender of really good in really

631
00:42:52,039 --> 00:42:55,400
good lineups, if you want to
say your best defender. So what his

632
00:42:55,480 --> 00:43:00,800
ceiling is? I couldn't think of
like a good comp because some of the

633
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,880
stuff he does on offense happens in
really slow motion, and so I'm trying

634
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:07,000
to think of like who would make
a lot of sense for him, and

635
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,400
I just I couldn't come up with
anyone. So I thought of like a

636
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:15,639
like a straight to DVD version of
Ogn and Obi maybe, And that's not

637
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,800
me just trying to be cruel.
I just don't think he's going to have

638
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:21,400
like the one on one chops that
that Og does, and we've seen a

639
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,119
lot more from Og on offense that
app also might just be a terrible comparison

640
00:43:25,199 --> 00:43:30,480
overall, So there's a chance that
he's going to be pretty good and for

641
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:36,679
the Timberwolves who have scooped him up
and people forget he was drafted twenty eighth

642
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,599
overall in twenty and twenty. He
was by the Lakers technically had that pick,

643
00:43:38,639 --> 00:43:42,599
but like he's this is not like
someone who's I would say he's still

644
00:43:42,599 --> 00:43:44,719
coming out of the blue. But
he was a first round prospect, which

645
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,320
certainly matters. So I do think
if you want to say three and D

646
00:43:46,519 --> 00:43:50,400
with a little bit more on offense, I think there's absolutely a chance he

647
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,159
can turn into that type of a
player. I think the comparison, and

648
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:59,000
it's one we saw a lot before
the draft is Jonathan Isaac. I think

649
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,320
he can shoot better than though would
just be probably so. And the way

650
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:09,719
I view McDaniels, he was coming
into that twenty twenty NBA Draft as probably

651
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:16,800
the single rawest NCAA prospect in that
draft class, Like the tools are there,

652
00:44:17,119 --> 00:44:22,119
the consistency, the IQ they aren't, which we saw flash a lot

653
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:27,760
at Washington where he just he was
not as impactful as he was supposed to

654
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:32,000
be as a freshman. He did
not have a lot of success there whatsoever.

655
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:37,880
But like if you ask me,
can Jaden McDaniels be a knockdown shooter?

656
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,960
Yeah? Can he create for himself
off the dribble? Yeah? Can

657
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,119
he guard all sorts of different positions? Yeah? The question is like whether

658
00:44:45,199 --> 00:44:49,360
he's going to be able to mesh
those skills together. I think he's He's

659
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:52,519
probably one of the better examples of
like a really low floor, really high

660
00:44:52,639 --> 00:44:58,920
ceiling prospect, and we just have
no way of knowing without seeing what he's

661
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:00,800
what he's doing on a day to
day basis and practice and shoot arounds and

662
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:05,960
all sorts of stuff, which of
those extreme outcomes he's going to hit,

663
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:10,360
because it does feel like the bottom
and the top for him are further apart

664
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:15,320
than they are for almost any twenty
year old. This is way too early,

665
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,159
but if you look at the trade
details of how the Timbers required him

666
00:45:17,159 --> 00:45:21,599
on draft night this past year,
just the four team deal, it was

667
00:45:21,639 --> 00:45:22,719
a three team deal. Excuse me, who would you rather have? And

668
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,840
there's so much more moving parts here. Ricky Rubio was involved, But would

669
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:36,119
you rather have Jane McDaniel's long term
or Alexey Pokashevski. Probably McDaniels, just

670
00:45:36,199 --> 00:45:43,320
because the wing, those oversized two
way wings tend to be the most valuable

671
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,760
commodities in today's NBA. And I
think just even though there's a high range

672
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:52,199
of outcomes, those top end results, if they're achieved, would be so

673
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:57,239
much more impactful, and I think
it's okay to talk about fit when you're

674
00:45:57,320 --> 00:45:59,960
out of the lottery in that case, and while Polcu might just have he's

675
00:46:00,039 --> 00:46:04,239
gonna he should be more dynamic offensively
if he fills out, because even when

676
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,920
he was inefficient in the NBA and
he's had better moments in the G League,

677
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:08,519
he was still interesting. You have
Karl Anthony Couns, and so I

678
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:12,920
don't know what poker was doing for
you. Where Jane McDaniels can absolutely play

679
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:19,400
alongside Karl Anthony Towns. This question
comes from is their name next to this

680
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,440
account? AJ? Can you do
net ratings since the hardened Brooklyn trade?

681
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:27,199
Adam? It turns out we can
because I already did. How about that.

682
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,280
I'm proud of you, that's all. I'm always proud of you.

683
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:35,159
So just particularly right now, let's
start with So, let's start with Houston

684
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:39,320
before the trade was nine games and
so the way I set this up,

685
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:43,400
by the way, is I did
it for Brooklyn. When we get to

686
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,840
what I did it for the first
game since that James Harden actually played,

687
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:49,599
it wasn't the first game since the
Traders. I think he missed two.

688
00:46:49,719 --> 00:46:52,920
Maybe I'm actually off on that it
was at least one, so I tried

689
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:58,039
to filter that out. But Houston
before the trade minus four point three points

690
00:46:58,039 --> 00:47:01,840
per one hundred possessions was their rating. Houston since the trade minus three point

691
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:07,840
four points per one hundred possessions.
I will say though their offense was twentieth

692
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:12,199
before Harden left, it has been
twenty eighth since, and it looks like

693
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,400
it belongs to be twenty eighth since
the Christian Wood injury has obviously impacted that

694
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:19,840
a little bit. Brooklyn, But
I mean we've we've always said that,

695
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,639
you know, the problem with Houston
was was James Harden. Yeah, it

696
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:29,360
makes sense that they've been slightly better
without them. The nets this is before

697
00:47:29,599 --> 00:47:32,880
the James Harden trade plus five point
four points per one hundre possessions. They

698
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:36,519
were six and six at the time. If if you guys care about that,

699
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,039
they are fifteen and seven since since
the first game Harden played again,

700
00:47:39,079 --> 00:47:43,960
want to make that clear, plus
six points perne hundred possessions. Their offense

701
00:47:44,599 --> 00:47:49,039
has gone from seventh at one hundred
fourteen point seven points perne hundred possessions.

702
00:47:49,039 --> 00:47:52,519
They are second over this ban at
one hundred and twenty two point four points

703
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,480
perne hundred possessions. Everyone cares about
the defense, as they should. They

704
00:47:55,480 --> 00:48:00,400
were thirteen before the Harden trade one
on nine point three defensive they are a

705
00:48:00,519 --> 00:48:06,320
rock solid twenty fifth since then at
one sixteen point four. The thing we

706
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:10,480
haven't seen enough of is Irving Durant
and James Harden playing together. And this

707
00:48:10,519 --> 00:48:13,639
is the last thing I looked up, because I'm sure people care about this.

708
00:48:13,679 --> 00:48:16,800
They've logged three hundred and eighty three
points or three hundred and eighty three

709
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:22,199
possessions together. Their offensive rating is
one twenty six point four and there their

710
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,239
defensive rating during that time, by
the way, one thirteen point three.

711
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:28,000
And so if your offensive rating is
going to be creeping up on one thirty,

712
00:48:28,159 --> 00:48:30,519
you can have a defensive rating closer
to one fifteen. And it's okay,

713
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,880
Yeah, I mean, I don't
really have much to abb there because

714
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,880
it feels like that's like exactly what
we were expecting. It's the decision they

715
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:44,320
made, and I'm just going to
be interested to see whether they do anything

716
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:49,159
to beef up their defense at the
trade deadline. Right, do we have

717
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,280
to follow up on that before we
move on to the next question, like

718
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,760
we did we did see that.
You know, Spencer Dinuity is being floated

719
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,880
as a potential piece to be moved
four in season help. So I think

720
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:06,559
it's it's clear both from our perspective
and from the next perspective that there will

721
00:49:06,599 --> 00:49:09,960
be a move made so to bolster
that defense. I have a question,

722
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:13,400
and I think I know he's coming
up an ac L injury, but I

723
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,239
view his bird rights as valuable if
you're a team that doesn't have cap space.

724
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,960
You know, if you're Orlando,
isn't he kind of sort of exactly

725
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,920
what you need in the backcourt against
faults? I would, yeah, I

726
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,159
would can definitely consider acquiring him if
I'm a team. It does seem pretty

727
00:49:25,159 --> 00:49:30,440
shitty to want to move someone who
was instrumental and like getting you to where

728
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:34,360
you were a pre k d Kyrie
and then while he's injured. But from

729
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,960
the callis perspective, I think Spencer
didnwod he can help a lot of teams

730
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,480
when he's healthy. Here's a question. Also, my sense from the outside

731
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:45,639
too, is just that like Dinwoody, probably more than a lot of other

732
00:49:45,679 --> 00:49:49,199
players understands like just how much of
a bit of business the NBA is.

733
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,599
So I think, like if you're
going to do that to anyone, I

734
00:49:52,639 --> 00:49:55,840
think he would at least understand do
you own Spencer Dinwoody Bitcoin? Do you

735
00:49:55,840 --> 00:50:00,000
own Spencer dinwod He staff. I
don't understand any of that stuff, and

736
00:50:00,039 --> 00:50:04,920
I'm not going to pretend to.
We can get into that. Maybe maybe

737
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,960
we can get into that on another
podcast. Uh, this is funny that

738
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,960
I just brought up a question and
then closed it out because apparently I'm an

739
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:14,400
idiot. But so this one,
this is an easy question to answer.

740
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:21,239
Lima's uh handle master underscore red with
two d's. Why do analytics prefer running

741
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:22,920
to the three point line on a
fast break over cutting to the basket?

742
00:50:23,599 --> 00:50:28,880
I just want to point out before
they don't. They don't. Yeah,

743
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:34,280
this is I'm assuming the simple as
that the Jamal Murray Michael Porter Junior gaff

744
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:37,639
to end the Nuggets game, I
messed up like it's it's as simple as

745
00:50:37,639 --> 00:50:40,639
that. I do want to know
why Jamal unless he was expecting Porter like

746
00:50:40,639 --> 00:50:43,840
he was getting ready to throw a
pass. I don't know why he picked

747
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:45,360
up his dreads exactly what it was, so that was probably think he was

748
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,440
just he was so convinced that one
of the two guys, especially Porter,

749
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:52,519
who was in position to do that, was going to cut towards the hoop,

750
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,039
and it didn't happen, and he
had to adjust from there, just

751
00:50:55,079 --> 00:50:59,480
like after his teammate made an incredibly
boneheaded move. But yeah, I mean,

752
00:50:59,519 --> 00:51:05,360
like there's don't assume that analytics just
means shoot more threes. Like that's

753
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,400
no one has ever said that,
Like, yes, teams should be shooting

754
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:12,159
more threes, but they should be
taking the right shots. And unless you're

755
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:16,920
like an open layup at the hoop, an uncontested open layup is going to

756
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:22,519
yield two points per possession, right
like NBA players are not going to miss

757
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:28,760
that shot, which means disagrees.
But carry on. If you if you

758
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:35,480
think that you should take a three
pointer over a layup to improve your expected

759
00:51:35,519 --> 00:51:38,239
points per possession, that means that
you're expecting that three pointer to be made

760
00:51:38,519 --> 00:51:44,199
sixty seven percent of the time,
and like that doesn't happen. So yeah,

761
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:49,239
like nothing in analytics says that you
should be taking three pointers over uncontested

762
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,320
layups. And I don't think that
players you would there's would be a question

763
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:53,679
for them. But let's say at
Draymond Green, I think quite often we'll

764
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:57,639
pass out of what looks like an
open two to an open three point shooter.

765
00:51:58,079 --> 00:52:00,000
It's either instinct, maybe they know
who to shoot is maybe he trusts

766
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:04,480
Stephen Curry. And also if you're
going through a slump or Draymond Green just

767
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,840
seems really hesitant to score on offense. That might be more about the way

768
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:12,360
a player is wired than or than
the wave. I don't think he's in

769
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:15,559
real time being like, oh,
this is analytically a better shot from Kelly

770
00:52:15,559 --> 00:52:17,360
obray Junior in the corner. If
it's Steph, maybe it's a debate between

771
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:22,440
a Draymond you know, floater and
his Steph three. Or also, like

772
00:52:22,519 --> 00:52:27,000
you just said it like it's a
Draymond floater, it's not yet lay Like

773
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:30,679
he's not turning down wide open paths
to the basket. He's turning down like

774
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,960
slightly contested shots because he's not the
greatest finisher. He's also these are these

775
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,400
are player based decisions. He's also
turned down some pretty wide open looks.

776
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:39,840
But I agree for the other thing, it's like, yeah, analytic probably

777
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:44,599
errors too far on that side.
Analytics also does not say don't shoot mid

778
00:52:44,679 --> 00:52:49,519
range jumpers. Do you think someone's
analytics also doesn't say anything analytics information that

779
00:52:49,559 --> 00:52:54,280
people who are assessing said information then
decide what it says, right, And

780
00:52:55,159 --> 00:52:59,079
no one's telling Chris Paul or Kevin
Durant to shoot less from the mid range.

781
00:52:59,119 --> 00:53:00,199
It's that if you're going to be
a catch and shoot guy, it

782
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:05,079
makes more sense for everyone else on
your team for you to stand behind the

783
00:53:05,119 --> 00:53:08,000
three point line, because one,
those shots are worth more points, and

784
00:53:08,159 --> 00:53:14,679
two you're clogging the lane for others. So this is I'm and this was

785
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:19,599
a question I think from Master Red. I'm not even trolling them. I

786
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,679
think people actually believe this, and
it's just not you know, And I

787
00:53:22,679 --> 00:53:25,760
don't think anyone should only be looking
at the numbers either. We're all there's

788
00:53:27,039 --> 00:53:30,400
analytics and the eye test need to
work in concert. And I don't know

789
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,679
why this is still like a thing. And that's not to insult the question

790
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:37,679
asker. That's just this. The
entire debate just really is. It's tired

791
00:53:37,679 --> 00:53:40,800
at this point. And one of
my two biggest pet peeves on this topic.

792
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:45,079
One is just the assumption that more
threes is always good, regardless of

793
00:53:45,079 --> 00:53:51,480
the situation and the circumstances, and
the other is that like thinking that analytics

794
00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:54,880
have created this like homogeneous play style, Like, yes, every team takes

795
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:59,079
a lot of three pointers now,
but if you watch the games, like

796
00:53:59,119 --> 00:54:04,039
you see how differently they work to
get those three pointers. Like it is,

797
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:07,880
even if the end result of a
possession is the same across the board,

798
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:14,199
it doesn't mean that the basketball played
to generate that attempt was even remotely

799
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:19,519
similar. Let's get to this was
a fun betting question. Which team this

800
00:54:19,599 --> 00:54:22,719
comes from Colton Johnson? Which team
has been the best against the spread this

801
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,920
year? Would you care to take
a guess before I reveal the results?

802
00:54:27,079 --> 00:54:30,840
I genuinely have no idea. This
is I never pay attention to the betting

803
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,360
stuff, so one thought would get
the dark here. It's the Utah Jazz.

804
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:38,119
They have covered against the spread seventy
three point five percent of the time

805
00:54:38,199 --> 00:54:44,320
twenty five and nine. If you
want to as a favorite, which has

806
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:49,280
been pretty incredible for them, they
are twenty third. Techi second because Okoma

807
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,599
City is one hundred percent against the
spread as a favorite because they've only been

808
00:54:52,679 --> 00:54:57,159
favorite once and they won that game. Dude has twenty three and eight against

809
00:54:57,199 --> 00:55:01,000
the spread as a favorite. If
you look at as an underdog, just

810
00:55:01,039 --> 00:55:06,800
to quickly wrap this up, the
Phoenix Suns have the highest cover percentage as

811
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,039
the underdog, It's seventy five percent. They're six and two. San Antonio

812
00:55:09,159 --> 00:55:15,000
is second eleven and five against the
spread when when they're an underdog. So

813
00:55:15,119 --> 00:55:16,440
for all, for all you betting
knicks out there, I just found that

814
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:20,599
interesting. The Jazz would have been
the team I think that I predicted it,

815
00:55:20,599 --> 00:55:22,639
else it actually might have been Phoenix, But I feel like I have

816
00:55:22,639 --> 00:55:27,280
a fetish for the Suns at this
point, So that's probably based on that

817
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:30,480
information. And again, like this
is coming from a place of total ignorance

818
00:55:30,519 --> 00:55:32,360
with all the betting stuff, Like, does that mean that the Lakers are

819
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:37,400
probably the worst against the spread as
a favorite, just because it seems like

820
00:55:38,079 --> 00:55:45,559
Utah is the small market appeal and
people have trouble get grasping that they are

821
00:55:45,639 --> 00:55:49,360
as good as their record is indicating. Whereas like I can see how the

822
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:52,679
betting lines might take advantage of people's
willingness to ride the Lakers, and betting

823
00:55:52,679 --> 00:55:55,239
lines are I believe, at least
to some extent, like a reflection of

824
00:55:55,239 --> 00:56:00,719
the action as well. So I
think so, but I don't want to

825
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:05,719
say that definitively. The Lakers are
fourteen and eighteen against the spread as favorites,

826
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:07,800
and I think that tells you all
you need to know is that,

827
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:12,360
Okay, this season, the Lakers
have now played what are they up to?

828
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:15,039
In games played? They've played thirty
four games and they've been favored in

829
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:21,960
thirty two of them. Is that
right? Yeah? So thirty two of

830
00:56:22,039 --> 00:56:24,440
thirty four. But yeah, I
mean that's there's an element of that in

831
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:29,440
there. But I did Utah as
the favorite. Technically I'm going to view

832
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:30,800
them as one instead of Oklahoma City
just because they never get to be the

833
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:34,079
favorite. That's cheating, But I
don't care. Shout out to the Jazz

834
00:56:34,119 --> 00:56:37,559
this season killing it. Hey,
look, speaking of my fetish for the

835
00:56:37,559 --> 00:56:38,599
Suns. We're gonna get well,
we're gonna wrap up soon here. We're

836
00:56:38,599 --> 00:56:42,920
gonna get through twenty questions on this
podcast in about an hour. I feel

837
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:49,639
like that's called efficiency. Fred asked, is Devin Booker the most overrated player

838
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:52,679
in the league? If not,
who is? Now? The thing I

839
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,760
just want to point out here is
that Devin Booker is absolutely just not overrated.

840
00:56:55,800 --> 00:57:00,480
And anyone who listens to this podcast
knows how we collectively and at least

841
00:57:00,519 --> 00:57:05,880
I personally feel about Devin Booker is
an incredibly undervalued passer, even this season

842
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:08,519
when you're looking at the turnover problems
he had at the beginning of the year.

843
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:14,199
Someone who can score from pretty much
every level by creating for himself,

844
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:17,920
getting guys on his hip. He
is just he is so good. And

845
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:22,280
I think it's been downplayed a little
bit because of how good Chris Paul has

846
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,320
been. And if you want to
argue Paul has been more important because of

847
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:29,079
his crunch time performance, I'll listen
to it. But Devin Booker is a

848
00:57:29,119 --> 00:57:31,920
top twenty five player in this league
and its hands down for me. And

849
00:57:32,039 --> 00:57:35,880
I think I left him off my
All Star ballot. That was just the

850
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:38,440
All Star ballots are wild this season, That's all I can say. Do

851
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:40,639
I regret it, I don't know, but I'm happy he got in.

852
00:57:40,719 --> 00:57:45,639
And look, I'm not discrediting anyone
for getting in as an injury replacement.

853
00:57:45,679 --> 00:57:47,880
By the way, it is his
second time in two times being an All

854
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:52,159
Star. But you know, Donovan
Mitchell was not. Excuse me, Darren

855
00:57:52,199 --> 00:57:54,800
Foxx is up for that spot.
Mike Conley this year, You're not he

856
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:59,960
beat out those guys. That's actually
an important distinction. So my personal opinion,

857
00:58:00,119 --> 00:58:02,760
I don't think Devin Booker is overrated. Does anyone spring to your mind?

858
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:06,519
Do you think he's overrated? And
do you think? Oh? I

859
00:58:06,519 --> 00:58:12,239
don't. I don't mean any offense
to the question asker here, just personally,

860
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:16,480
I don't really love questions about players
being overrated, because how do we

861
00:58:16,519 --> 00:58:21,039
determine how rated they are in the
first place? Like that baseline is so

862
00:58:21,079 --> 00:58:24,760
important to this question, So if
I have to answer it, I think

863
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:31,960
it's typically going to be a younger
guy who the general perception is that they

864
00:58:32,079 --> 00:58:37,840
are more valuable and further along in
their career growth than they are. So,

865
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:39,440
like, the first name that came
to mind is like Tyler Hero,

866
00:58:39,719 --> 00:58:45,119
because he had like so many impressive
rookie season moments during the Heats run to

867
00:58:45,159 --> 00:58:47,159
the NBA Finals and just has not
managed to live up to that. And

868
00:58:47,199 --> 00:58:52,000
I'm not sure that perception has adjusted
accordingly. But even then, like,

869
00:58:52,039 --> 00:58:54,920
it's really clear that Hero has a
future as a star in this league,

870
00:58:55,119 --> 00:58:59,480
and there are so many good things
that he does, so it's not like

871
00:59:00,079 --> 00:59:04,280
saying he's overrated now it means he's
always going to be yeah, that I

872
00:59:04,280 --> 00:59:07,320
don't have now that I'm not writing, and like more in the editing world

873
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:13,199
and the podcasting world and the stat
based world, like I don't have to

874
00:59:13,239 --> 00:59:15,760
answer at the overrated questions as much, and I'm glad about that. I

875
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:19,800
don't know that I've given I don't
know when the last time I've given the

876
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,840
thought to the the overrated question was
And people seem to just regurgitate the same

877
00:59:22,920 --> 00:59:25,320
names. Again, This isn't an
insult to the person who asked the question,

878
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:30,719
but it's it's Zach Lavine, it's
Devin Booker, it's Trey Young,

879
00:59:30,039 --> 00:59:36,559
it's you know, I don't know
that it's all relative. Untila Russell might

880
00:59:36,599 --> 00:59:39,960
be another answer. I almost feel
like perceptions probably skewed two four. If

881
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:43,519
you have a guy who can hit
off the drible jumpers, like forty two

882
00:59:43,519 --> 00:59:45,960
percent from pull up three S four's
injury this year, I have to think

883
00:59:45,960 --> 00:59:50,679
that that matters. Like you could
also go towards like the viral moment people

884
00:59:50,880 --> 00:59:53,719
where it's like that they like there
was a point where he's so now this

885
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:57,039
is actually but I'm not even gonna
say it. I can't risk gard down

886
00:59:57,119 --> 00:59:59,480
or podcast being down. Voted again, and I'm not even sure that I

887
01:00:00,039 --> 01:00:01,119
meet it. But Tyler, here
might be an example where there's a rush

888
01:00:01,119 --> 01:00:04,880
to coordinate, and we might have
been there with Devin Booker at one point,

889
01:00:05,119 --> 01:00:07,920
Jason Tayum at one point, where
there was this rush to view them

890
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:12,000
as something they weren't ready to be, and that's probably the genesis of a

891
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:15,400
lot of the issues here. In
some ways, it's like almost a compliment

892
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:21,440
with these younger guys, where like
the expectations exist for a reason. It's

893
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,079
not like those just came out of
nowhere, like they did something to generate

894
01:00:24,119 --> 01:00:28,800
those expectations, and even if they
haven't been able to meet them consistently,

895
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:32,239
like they still got there. It's
kind of like how you know, Skip

896
01:00:32,239 --> 01:00:37,440
Bayliss likes to criticize Lebron James or
like missing a clutch jumper or not being

897
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:43,880
willing to take one or something without
acknowledging that there wouldn't be a clutch opportunity

898
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:46,320
if not for Lebron James's work in
the first forty seven minutes of the game.

899
01:00:47,239 --> 01:00:52,599
Yeah, it's a good point.
Let's get to a rosier question.

900
01:00:52,719 --> 01:00:54,800
It's another Sun's question though, because
like I told you I have a Sun's

901
01:00:54,800 --> 01:01:00,320
fetish. Kaid Horneck asked which player
in the buyout market would help the Sons

902
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:04,360
the most. I'm willing to open
it up to trade targets because the buyout

903
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:07,960
market has not fully developed at this
point. If you want to pinpoint maybe

904
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:09,360
someone that you think could be bought
out or someone who's cheap on the market.

905
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:12,599
I just want to cut you off
first and say that this is like

906
01:01:12,719 --> 01:01:15,719
the most dan Fa Valley question imaginable, to the point that I'm questioning if

907
01:01:15,719 --> 01:01:21,880
this is one of your burners,
like a buyout slash trade question about the

908
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,280
Phoenix Suns. Yeah, that is
my brand. You wrote this right.

909
01:01:25,079 --> 01:01:30,119
Look this awesome to say is this
Twitter profile has photos and everything on it.

910
01:01:30,199 --> 01:01:35,360
So shout out to k if you're
asking a great question. So I

911
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:39,280
don't. It's tough because they don't
have guys that you can just move there

912
01:01:39,639 --> 01:01:43,960
when you look at what would tenderly
be their best salary matching anchors. You're

913
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:46,360
not moving Paul or Booker. You're
not giving up on eight and this point.

914
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:51,039
Can you move Jay Crowder nine point
three million? Can you move Dario's

915
01:01:51,119 --> 01:01:53,599
Arch nine point three million? Sure? But why do you want to who

916
01:01:53,639 --> 01:01:57,519
are you getting back in those moves
that makes you want to move those guys

917
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:00,280
Starch at the five line ups have
just been annihily opponents this year at both

918
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:04,719
ends of the floor. That does
lead me to who would be my trade

919
01:02:04,719 --> 01:02:07,039
target for them. I think a
lot of people want them to sort of

920
01:02:07,079 --> 01:02:09,360
lock down the guard position a little
bit. But it's hard to get a

921
01:02:10,079 --> 01:02:14,440
George Hill just because if you're not
willing to give up Jail and Smith,

922
01:02:14,559 --> 01:02:16,960
then the money matching there just gets
incredibly tough, and you're talking about like

923
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:21,679
a four for one. Basically.
I do understand the thought process of,

924
01:02:21,719 --> 01:02:24,280
well, you know, do we
trust Cameron Payne and his performance this season?

925
01:02:24,280 --> 01:02:28,039
You probably should, but it's worth
considering. I thought about PJ.

926
01:02:28,159 --> 01:02:32,440
Tucker just because I think DeAndre Eaton
has been incredibly good on defense overall.

927
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:36,880
But if you need someone who can
maybe defend higher or if you want to

928
01:02:37,119 --> 01:02:39,840
if you have to go up against
lineups that are super diversified or smaller,

929
01:02:39,960 --> 01:02:44,000
and you definitely can trust PJ.
Tucker more than Dario Sarch in that role.

930
01:02:44,039 --> 01:02:46,559
Probably get to reunite him with Chris
Paul and it's probably a package where

931
01:02:46,559 --> 01:02:51,800
it's like Javon Carter still an excellent
defender, but he's not really hitting his

932
01:02:51,880 --> 01:02:53,960
threes this year, and then abdel
Nader, maybe you have to include a

933
01:02:54,000 --> 01:02:58,559
second But like that package for PJ. Tucker feels like it really solidifies a

934
01:02:58,599 --> 01:03:01,639
team where I don't know that the
front court rotation is their biggest weakness because

935
01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:06,000
that really depends on how you much
you trust campaign. But I also have

936
01:03:06,079 --> 01:03:08,960
a problem investing real equity in the
backcourt right now when you have Chris Paul

937
01:03:09,039 --> 01:03:12,320
Devin Booker on your team, where
it's like, you know what, let's

938
01:03:12,360 --> 01:03:15,840
just ride the Cameron Payne wave.
And so that's a guy that stood out

939
01:03:15,199 --> 01:03:19,239
because maybe you don't trust John Smith
or you shouldn't. He's just, you

940
01:03:19,239 --> 01:03:20,960
know, I don't even know what
the Sun's planned for him is at this

941
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:22,760
point. He's not going to be
the one that tips the scales in your

942
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:24,880
favor. But Tucker doesn't also only
have to play the five, and yet

943
01:03:24,880 --> 01:03:28,800
he's cheap enough to where you don't
feel obligated to close him. And with

944
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:30,119
teams like that are deep, like
the Suns and the Jazz, I'm not

945
01:03:30,119 --> 01:03:35,039
just trying to overcompliment the Sun's here. You know, you can look at

946
01:03:35,039 --> 01:03:37,559
a Lakers team and be like,
oh, I could identify, like maybe

947
01:03:37,599 --> 01:03:40,639
there's someone that can be in their
closing lineup with the Suns or the Jazz

948
01:03:40,639 --> 01:03:44,440
whoever you require is just probably not
going to be in a closing lineup most

949
01:03:44,440 --> 01:03:45,599
of the time. And so Tucker, yeah, he could be in some,

950
01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:50,280
but he's someone that you don't necessarily
have to feel obligated to close with.

951
01:03:51,239 --> 01:03:53,760
H Yeah. I think the only
thing I would add is like more

952
01:03:53,880 --> 01:03:58,800
generic buyout candidates who could make sense
for the Suns, just as add a

953
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:03,760
depth like Trevor Areza, JaVale McGee, like just those those typical, like

954
01:04:04,119 --> 01:04:08,320
role playing names who would be good
on any contender at this point, Like,

955
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:12,000
I don't think that they're going to
fill a specific need with this year's

956
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:15,519
buyoup market. Yeah, and like, no one's really going to buy out

957
01:04:15,519 --> 01:04:18,480
a guard that could be you know, serviceable, right either if Jeff t

958
01:04:18,719 --> 01:04:21,920
comes on the market or brand wannamate, Like that's not that that's not going

959
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:27,519
to be it for them. Yeah, I'm with you there. Next question

960
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:33,760
comes from Morpheus. Is the salary
cap going down next year? You're gonna

961
01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:38,480
ask me if this is my burner
too. Next year's salary cap is set

962
01:04:38,519 --> 01:04:41,480
as at this point for one twelve
point four million. My guess is going

963
01:04:41,559 --> 01:04:45,599
to be that it just comes down
because the revenue is going to be down.

964
01:04:45,199 --> 01:04:48,760
I don't know how salary caps based
on VRII, which is almost certainly

965
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:53,199
going to go down as we continue
to not have ticket revenues. Well.

966
01:04:53,199 --> 01:04:56,360
At the same time, the teams
there's like more than half the league does

967
01:04:56,400 --> 01:05:00,280
have fans coming back to capacity.
So I know they baked in the change

968
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:03,280
for these projections. I'm just curious
how heavily they did and what ends up

969
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:05,719
happening. You know, we're not
we're not out of the pandemic yet,

970
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:09,639
so there are there gonna be missed
games. How many teams don't play seventy

971
01:05:09,639 --> 01:05:14,320
two games, what happens during the
playoffs, all that stuff matters. So

972
01:05:14,599 --> 01:05:17,719
my guests would be that it goes
down. I don't know, but I

973
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:20,719
think they're gonna do They'll do what
they did this year if it comes to

974
01:05:20,760 --> 01:05:25,880
that drastic I don't think they're gonna
drag it below the one on nine point

975
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,719
one. It'll be smoothed out if
it needs to be, just because the

976
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:33,039
NBA knows the teams operate on multi
year plans, so you can't disrupt strategies

977
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:39,519
too much by having like gigantic cap
swings. This will be our final question

978
01:05:39,519 --> 01:05:43,159
and our twentieth question. That feels
like a pretty good number to get through.

979
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:46,639
This is a little bit more topical. This comes from Andrew Blake,

980
01:05:46,679 --> 01:05:51,559
who was the biggest All Star snub. Oh, it's Chris Middleton about a

981
01:05:51,559 --> 01:05:57,800
doubt. It's it's between him and
BAM for me, and Devin Booker might

982
01:05:57,840 --> 01:05:59,760
have been up there too with someone
who didn't put him on his ballot.

983
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:02,280
Though him can I call him a
snub? But he made it eventually.

984
01:06:02,679 --> 01:06:05,599
Bam has been so good and I
couldn't believe that he didn't make it.

985
01:06:06,039 --> 01:06:10,239
So those two feel like the right
answer. Chris Middleton, I guess because

986
01:06:10,239 --> 01:06:13,639
he cooled off a little bit,
but he is. He's just fantastic.

987
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,079
And even if you think he's we
made the Middleton case on earlier episodes.

988
01:06:16,119 --> 01:06:19,920
But I think to me it comes
down to like team record too, Like

989
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:24,039
Miami is still below five hundred,
even if it's gotten better as the season

990
01:06:24,079 --> 01:06:27,320
has progressed. Milwaukee is pushing for
the number one seed in the East again

991
01:06:28,239 --> 01:06:31,719
and like Middleton has been a huge
part of that, it would be between

992
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:33,440
those two For me, I'm not
sure who would I mean, I think

993
01:06:33,440 --> 01:06:38,440
i would lean Chris Middleton just because
I'm probably always going to value just the

994
01:06:38,440 --> 01:06:41,679
wings that can create. So if
you think he's overrated on defense, that

995
01:06:41,719 --> 01:06:45,840
could scue it because bam is you
know he's a fantastic defender. So and

996
01:06:45,840 --> 01:06:49,800
I would say that like Trey and
Conley are probably the next tier of snubs.

997
01:06:50,599 --> 01:06:54,639
Yeah, I would agree with you
there. That will do it for

998
01:06:54,679 --> 01:06:57,960
this mail bag, we will.
We were inundated with questions. Maybe we'll

999
01:06:57,960 --> 01:07:00,920
do a second one at some point
this week because we had a lot of

1000
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:03,360
questions that we did not get through. So apologies to anyone who's listening at

1001
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:06,840
the Nether question answered please please,
pretty please. I'll remember to rate,

1002
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:12,519
review and subscribe to us wherever you
are getting your podcasts iTunes, especially even

1003
01:07:12,559 --> 01:07:15,679
if you don't use us rating interviews
there help us out a ton. These

1004
01:07:15,679 --> 01:07:18,199
mailbags are going to be weekly on
Mondays, and I guess in this case

1005
01:07:18,239 --> 01:07:21,199
maybe we could potentially throw in a
second one. Will we will, We

1006
01:07:21,199 --> 01:07:25,400
shall see, But until next time, I'll leave you get the shout out

1007
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:30,360
two to one, the only every
single member of the Phoenix on his team

1008
01:07:30,360 --> 01:07:44,880
this season. Nobody builds five G
like Verizon builds five G because we're the

1009
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:47,559
engineers who built the most reliable network
in America. And the more you do

1010
01:07:47,639 --> 01:07:51,119
with five G, the more building
it right matters, the more your network

1011
01:07:51,199 --> 01:07:57,320
matters, the more Verizon engineers going
the extra mile matters. It's us pushing

1012
01:07:57,480 --> 01:08:01,639
us. It's Verizon versus Verizon.
Five G built right from America's most reliable

1013
01:08:01,679 --> 01:08:06,119
network, most reliable based on rankings
promote Metrics second half twenty twenty US report

1014
01:08:06,119 --> 01:08:09,880
of three mobile networks. Results may
vary. Award is not an endorsement
