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Hey, yo, what is up? Hardwood Knocks listeners. I am Dan
Pavalley coming at you with a very special guest. This time, I'm a
reoccurring guest, one of my good friends and colleagues, Grant Hughes. He
is a national MBA writer for Bleacher Report, and if you're not following him
on Twitter, you can do so at GT Underscore. Hughes spelt exactly as
it sounds. New era of Hardner would Knox where I'm going to try and
streamline these these openings. So we're just gonna get right into it after we
shout out. Our sponsor has always been online dot AG. You'll be hearing
from them in a second. Grant, how are you doing tonight? I'm
doing very well, and I think I would like from now on you can
make a note of this. I would like to be referred to as a
regular Can we do that? Is there like a test I have to take
or anything? No, I mean, if you want to be associated with
this podcast, we'll count you in the minority at this point, so you
can absolutely be called the regular guest. I'm ready to do that. It
sounds good. I brought you on to talk about MBA Hard Truths, which,
as you astutely pointed out, are basically hot takes rebranded there we're not
just the intention here, and I you previewed some of yours with me,
so I know you talked about the same way. It wasn't really just fire
off these like incendiary takes. It was really just to talk about things that
it feels like people it's awkward, or people don't want to talk about it,
or they don't fully believe. And I think the way you phrased it
before we got on, I can't even remember what you said. Was it
how did you put like the hate to tell you this but type of thing
that this is the to tell you this but podcast? So right, although
I don't really hate to tell anybody this, but but yeah, no,
it's like it is it's I don't you know, the hot take is so
stigmatized, but like that's sort of what this is. And and I think
we both have just done a little rebrand. But no, it's not like
a crazy We're not saying anything crazy. It's just kind of like, hey,
pay attention to this. This is a real thing, I think,
and you might not like it, maybe is another way to put it.
If you're a fan of a specific team, perhaps you won't like it.
And I think it's I think it's good to go through this exercise with the
MBA projected to restart. And I don't have to ask you about the NBA's
restart plan because as a regular guest, we've already talked about that is the
first podcast. I don't have to lobby that question out there. Would you
like to start us off, though? What is your first hard truth?
Yeah? So this is a good hard truth I think, certainly for the
Toronto Raptors. And this is like I'm definitely not diversifying my hot take or
hard truth assets very well because this is kind of my go to. And
I did a bold predictions piece today that I'll go up I think tomorrow.
And if I were a gambling man, I would have put some money down
on the Raptors at like plus fourteen hundred to win the title, and that
is that everyone should be freaking out about the Toronto Raptors. And if you're
a Toronto fan freaking out in a good way, if you're another title contender,
that might make the mistake of overlooking them in a bad way. And
I will put you on the spot and start it with this because this sort
of frames my thinking on why I think the Raptors absolutely belong with the LA
teams and the Bucks on the shortlist of like, quote unquote, if this
team won a title this year, I would not be remotely surprised. And
the question is is there a matchup and we're talking playoffs, don't whatever you
want to talk about these this eight game run up? We can, But
is there a team that, as you're thinking about a playoff series against Toronto,
you say to yourself, oh, man, like this this is a
bad matchup for the Raptors. Do you like it's kind of rhetorical, but
but is there anyone that is out there that you're like, Oh, that's
gonna be rough specifically matchup wise for Toronto? Are we? If you are
we including potential finals matchups or no. Yes, yeah, I would probably
only say the Clippers. And I'm even like because the Bucks in fury should
be just because there there is a chance that, based off what we see
in this season, there's that excuse me, the Raptors have at least one
of the two best players in that series, if not two of them.
When you go against the Clippers, though, there's a chance that you're not
going to have even one of the two best players in that series. And
it's probably the same case with the Lakers because of Lebron and Ad. But
the Clippers also have depth like to go along with that, and they can
play sort of like the Raptors where they can shape shift their identity, particularly
on defense. But I don't think, and this was probably the point of
your question, I don't think there's an easy answer to that because there might
not actually be an answer. Yeah, I mean, obviously I was setting
it up that way. I think I do take your point, and I
think I agree with you that against most of the high against really those other
three high profile teams, Toronto will not have the best player. And to
use the Clippers example, I think actually the Paul George versus Pascal Siakam.
Question is close enough to me that like in a seven game series, it
could tip towards Siakam. But the way I look at it is, you
know, this is a Raptors team that you know, they're second in the
conference there, I think, tied for third in net rating, and they
basically did not have their full complement of rotation players healthy, like at all.
They're They're projected starting five played seventeen games together this year. And if
if we assume, and I think it's fair too, that everybody's ready to
go, including Marcus Ol, who I think still really matters against, say
Joel Embiid. You know, Siakam's healthy, Vanvleet's healthy, Norm Palwell's health,
all that stuff. They just like they just match up really well with
everybody because in and Obi, I think is about as good as you can
do against high scoring, you know, star quality wings on the ball defender
in the NBA. Right. See, I think that was a hot take
like six months ago, but I think liked percent agree. I just think
that like everyone else is late to this maybe, but yeah, that's where
it starts. And I think Siakam, I mean, look, if you
want to put Siakam on Paul George or you know, if he's on Lebron
or if he's on even a D he's undersize, but like that's not a
walkover matchup. Siakam, I think, is not in Annaobe's class as an
on ball defender, but it might be he's certainly better off the ball and
he's gonna hold up. You've got like think about a Lakers matchup in the
finals, Van Fleet and Lowry going against say like Caruso and Darren Smith or
KCP who's fine, but like they're going to run circles around those guys.
There's just the more I thought about it, you take the title experience,
you take Siakam's leap, you take Annaobe being healthy, which he wasn't last
playoffs. You take Lowry just being like validated as a real big game player
now after that false narrative was gone. You take Nick Nurse, I think
is the best like tactical coach in the league. He's going to do a
bunch of weird stuff, and he's got all these healthy guys as options to
kind of mess around with. Scheme wise, I don't know, I definitely
am like kind of firing myself up too much because it feels like a you
know, contrarian take, and that's kind of a fun spot to be in.
But I just I'm so all in on Toronto, and I think teams
and fans that are overlooking the Raptors just because. I mean, I say
just because, but since they don't have Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, I
just don't. I just don't think they can be overlooked and belong in that
group of like absolute elite, elite title threats. It's almost maybe I've followed
too many Raptors people on Twitter because that almost doesn't feel hot enough, I
think. And I've been asked the question a bunch, whether I'm on a
podcast or radio spot, who do you view as the biggest threat to Milwaukee
in the East, And I think it's Toronto. I know it's a no
brainer, right. I know a lot of people have thrown Boston out there,
but now, yeah, look and Gausaul, I'll be curious to see
because you mentioned a potential matchup with Embiid. I feel like that's the only
area in which his weight loss might hurt him when you're looking at what they
might need him to do to help with a Brook Lopez or a Janni's attent
to Kompo just being lighter on his feet. In general, he was already
one of the smartest half court defenders in the NBA. That should probably help
him. But him beat is just this monstrosity, and so I'd be curious
about that. But they just have so many different looks and players they could
throw at you, and they're just it's these random things that you know,
if Nick nurse, depending on if someone's injured, Oh do you want to
play Randi Hollis Jefferson at center. Yeah, I'll go do that. Terrence
Davis. This is a Terrence Davis fan club over here, just like like
and Terrence Davis too, who I'm fascinated by. He wasn't playing as much
leading into the league shutdown, and I think part of that has to do
with Toronto's fascination or preference for Patrick McCaw, which I don't necessarily agree with.
But Terrence Davis could end up being a swing piece in certain matchups because
I feel like he can provide some wing defense and he has this nifty second
jump around the rim to follow his own misses, even though he's only what
is he six four or whatever he is? So I really I like Toronto,
and I agree that this is probably a harder truth for people who are
outside of Toronto or maybe aren't following Toronto as closely, because I don't I
think everyone expect did them to maybe blow it up this year. They're like
sort of the Toronto in Oklahoma City or the two teams I've become like emotionally
attached to this season, that's just sort of this detached observer. Those the
teams that I zero went on because they you know, I thought I was
higher on Toronto than most, but I was like, oh, they'll get
an at a boy five seed or four seed, not two seed in the
East. And so I'm an agreement with you. I'm curious to know,
just nationally how much that registers on the hard truth scale, like Haws the
perception turned or is it you know, Jason Tatum has played so well now
that people are all Celtics or they're infatuated with the heat, or they're still
you know, looking at the Sixers. I'd just be curious to know what
the cat more casual fan and that's not an insult, what they think about
the Raptors. Yeah. I mean I think a lot of you know,
this being a hot take or a hard truth depends entirely on that. I
just the other thing that I meant to mention is that sort of as an
additional thought exercise for the Raptors is like just say they they draw Mill,
they get they get Milwaukee in the conference finals, and they just they solve
them. Which I think if you're going to pick a team to solve the
Bucks, because the Bucks have this rep I think somewhat deservedly as solvable because
they're the most obvious, you know, adherence to system basketball in the league.
Nick Nurse is the coach I would pick to solve the Bucks. And
Janie leaves that series thinking like while I'm out of here, where should I
go? And it's like it's an open secret that Messi, Jerry and Toronto
are targeting Jannie. It's like that's just the thing. I think, casual
or not, we can all agree that that's been out there. So talk
about why everyone should be freaking out about the Raptors, which is my sort
of headline for this take, like there's there it is, because that's the
second stage fall out of if Toronto really performs, you know, as well
as I think it could as they end up with Jannis via trade. So
I don't know, it's just that's that's really the monster ripple effect that I
think could come out. You mentioned Jason Tatum, which I want to get
to soon, but do you have a ones of fire back at me before
we talk Boston and Tatum. Yes, And this is sort of a polled
one because I co authored bleacher Reports Top one hundred players of the twenty season
so far, so it was a retrospective and the response was profuse profusely against
Chris Middleton being ranked tenth. And so my heart truth is this season,
I'm not predicting what's going to happen in the playoffs because I wouldn't put him
at ten looking at the playoffs. But this season Chris Middleton has added top
ten value. Just one. I think you need to look at the superstar
pool this year, and guys who are absent or just had such limited availability,
you can't say they added top ten value. Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry,
even Paul George would normally be in that discussion, but he hasn't really
hasn't played a ton this year and Kyrie Irving only playing in what was it
twenty games or whatever it was, So I totally recognize that in a normal
season, Chris Middleton isn't a top ten player this year though he absolutely is,
and he's I know, I want to use this more so to say
by extension, I also think that he is a capable number two on a
championship team. And I know the knock against him has been that he's not
this conventional star, and I guess you can say that because who wants to
build around Chris Middleton. But the Bucks are destroying opponents when Middleton plays without
Janice Attenta Kopo this year, He's actually locked more than seven hundred and fifty
possessions without Attenta Coopo and Eric Bletsoe, and the Bucks have an offensive rating
in the ninety nine percentile, and they were similarly good last year as well.
I know it fell apart in the playoffs, but Janice also kind of
didn't fall apart, but he struggled in that series against the Raptors. And
I really do think that people underestimate Chris Middleton's own creation, like that is
ingrained into his game. He runs picking rolls into pull up jumpers, he
shoots over missmassive mismatches, excuse me, an iso, and from the post
to fade waves or business as usual for him. He's off the dribble three.
It's deployed in smaller doses, but it remains effective. And he's the
secondary playmaker that everyone's waiting for Jason Tatum to be, which for now is
why I would put Middleton ahead of Tatum, at least relative to what's already
happened this season. And they're not complicated passes he's making, but he's just
finding the right guy when he's coming around screens. And so I believe,
even in a normal season, that Chris Middleton can be the number two on
a championship team. And this, I think is another hard truth. And
I'm saying this after ranking Janni's attent Tokoumpo as the best player in the NBA
this season from what we've seen already, If he can't be, I think
that actually says more about Yanis than it may about Chris Middleton. Because if
you need Stephan Curry to be your number two, or you know, if
you wanted to go to Dallas, you need Luca dontage to be your number
two. Like those are clear cut number ones. And so if there's something
about Jannie's games where his increased pull up volume that fadeaway volume, it doesn't
really help, you know, keep the offense from getting bogged down in the
half court during the playoffs. That's not going to necessarily make me think any
less of Jannie. But if you need a top let's say, like,
if you need a top ten player to be your sidekick to win a title,
I'm not I think that does in fact say more about you than it
would about a sidekick who this season is going to make an All NBA team.
And that might be the harder truth for me to deliver, just because
I love Jannis. But if you yeah, and it's also it's a little
hypocritical because Lebron has Amfie, Davis Kawhi, Leonard has Paul George. But
what is the gap separating Chris Middleton from Paul George this season? I'm talking
specifically about season. I think he's added more value because he's been more available,
But in the role that these two are playing, where you know,
he's seating volume to Yannis and George's seating volume and status to Kawhi Leonard,
I just don't see. Defensively, yeah, there's probably a chasm there,
but overall there's not like this huge gap. And so if the honest at
Tendacoopo can't win, or if the Bucks can't win a championship with this team,
and it's because someone like Middleton didn't play up to snuff when not Tentacopo
was struggling, I still think that would probably say more about Janis as a
number one, or at least just as much as it would about Middleton.
So the honest thing is fascinating to me because you sort of are making me
consider like big picture of questions that I hadn't really before as they apply to
him. And if you think it just you know, you can't go back
too far because the game was so different, but if you look at it
now, I really don't think you can be a primary ball handling, perimeter
oriented player, which is sort of a fun key category to put Yannis in
because you know he dominates inside so thoroughly. But your weakness really can't be
shooting. You can have other weaknesses like so just using examples of some of
the guys you mentioned, like Curry is not a wing number one. He
is the guy that opposing you know, playoff teams target defensively just sort of
by default. But you know, there are other players that have been imperfect,
that have been the best players on title teams. But the commonality in
all of them is that they can shoot. And I think this feeds into
I would say that not only would the Bucks sort of you know, disappointing
or whatever because Middleton wasn't up to snuff, say more about Janie than it
what about Middleton. I think it would say more about the constraints that a
player like Jannie puts on a team and the way that that forces certain types
of like system ball that in the playoffs, given enough time and enough scouting,
can sort of get solved. And I keep the second time I've used
that, but like, you can't be a solvable team and win a title
that you have to. That's just and with Yannest there is an exploitable weakness.
I know he's willing to shoot more threes, but I take your point.
I think that if Middleton is not good enough as your second option,
and look, just as you were talking, Middleton is one of five guys
this year six with over sixty one true shooting on over twenty six usage.
That's you know, the others hardon Davis Lillard Booker. I don't think it's
a it's a hot take to say that based on this year, Middleton is
better than Tatum, better than a lot of other potentially even bigger names.
But it is really interesting to me that Middleton might be the guy that gets
wrongly undervalued or blamed if the Bucks disappoint. Now, if he plays like
he did in the last year's playoffs, that's different. But I feel like
what you're saying is that based on this season, it's not it's not really
even controversial to say that he's a top ten value. I think that's right,
And I think the comparison to Tatum is really interesting because I think Tatum,
in addition to sort of doing this weird thing where he ascended like over
the span of a month, you know, which just doesn't really happen in
real time, which I think inflated his league wide perception, but he also
I think is perceived as having like a different role than Middleton, like more
of a primary creation role. But to your point, Middleton's perfectly capable creating
shots for himself for other guys when Jannie is off the floor. So I
do think that Tatum gets a little bit of a boost, possibly undeserved,
because he sort of fits the profile as the top option wing you know,
gets your own shot, get other guys shots. That Middleton doesn't really get
viewed that way, which I think is wrong, and I think it's part
of the reason that he isn't kind of, you know, viewed as the
no brainer, top ten value add guy that Tatum maybe by some people is.
I think Tatum and I'd probably diverge from you, and that might be
a good segue into the Tatum stuff. But I think Tatum's rise lasted longer
that a month, and it was just a little bit more gradual, and
that it was really only highlighted for that time. So but yeah, the
points on Middleton, like they're just absolutely spot on for me. I mean,
look, he was sixty fourth in isolation and the sixty fourth percentile of
isolation efficient efficiency this season, eighty six percentile as a scorer out of the
pick and roll, and he's someone who can work as a spot up shooter
if you need to. He's been shooting the lights out from mid range again,
and it seems like coach Budd has just been like, yeah, just
let the volume fly. I'm gonna lose that battle anyway. Eighty third percentile
of post up efficiency too, which isn't a huge part of his game,
but there are just so many things he could do as a score that even
if you don't think in a vacuum, he's not a top ten player in
a regular season. So I would use this more to inform the other truth,
which is I think he's apps abolutely a viable number two on a title
team. Yeah, I think that's right. Sports are coming back, and
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all one word bet online. You're online wagering experts. Let's jump to Tatum,
who, like I think actually right now, that's what Tatum is like,
skill wise and value wise. But I think the perceptive. Do you
agree that the perception of Tatum is that sort of he's really right on the
CUSP board, maybe is already ready to be like the number one guy to
lead a maybe not necessarily a title team, but a team to the finals.
Do you feel like that's how he's kind of come to be viewed now.
Yeah, And I think I actually might even be among the people that
view him in that light. So here's my pushback against that. And I
guess this is this is just the hard truth. I just don't think he
is as good right now. Not saying he won't be that guy eventually.
He's still really young. I don't think he's that good now. And I
think what I have a problem with, or what sort of gives me pause
about sort of his profile, is that, you know, I think you're
right, I've maybe oversimplified it that he had a hot month. It's very
clear that he's added like his bag is so much deeper now, he gets
to the basket a ton more often than he used to. His handles tightened
up a lot. He has a bunch of one and two dribble moves out
a triple threat to just roast guys. His step back is a lot better.
But the breakout sort of narrative to me, kind of got built on
the fact that he just hit every pull up three he took for a really
long time, and it's it is again an oversimplification, but he hit forty
eight forty eight point seven percent of the six point three pull up threes he
attempted per game in February. Forty eight point seven percent of high volume pull
up threes seems high. Seems high. Here's how high it is. Damian
Lillard is the best pull up three point shooter in the league this year.
Among guys that shot at least four per game, he shot forty point one
percent. So Tatum is way better in this month one month span, which
I'm cherry picking a little, but I do think February is when the narrative
started of oh, Tatum is it. He's not gonna hit almost half of
his pull up threes at high volume ever, first of all, because nobody
does, but certainly not in a playoff run. So well, I do
think Tatum is on the very short list of guys that, like, you
know, twenty five, one hundred or whatever, that I want to build
a franchise around. As he exists as a player right now, I think
he's getting a little too much clout from totally unsustainable outside shooting. And I
don't know if that's hot because I maybe the hot take, because maybe that's
been said, but just sort of four months removed from watching basketball, that's
really settled into me as like a narrative that kind of got away from us
a little bit. So I think he's just scoring so well and difficult in
so many difficult situations that I don't know that we can call it a fluke,
Like, no, he's not gonna hit half of his pull up threes
before the season. Among everyone attempting at least three pull up threes per game,
only Dame and carous Lavert shout out, carros Lavert are downing there is
at a better clip. Nicole Yokich is the only player who has converted more
looks inside four seconds of the shot clock, and Tatum's fifty five point seven
effective field goal percentage inside four seconds of the shot clock ranks first out of
one hundred and four players who have fifty more, fifty or more of those
attempts under their belt. And when you combine that with they've basically doubled up
his pick and roll volume from last year, the scoring to me is for
real. I don't know if there will always be the tug of war between
can you get to the basket more? Like you already mentioned, I think
he's done a better job of that. It does feel like there could be
that push and pull, that ebb and flow to it moving forward, and
that's mostly fine. I might just be more concerned about, if they're going
to give him this much pick and roll volume, can he turn it into
more playmaking, particularly in the playoffs when presumably it gets harder to navigate these
half court defenses. He has the lowest assist rate of anyone in the league
with his usage, and I've seen him throw some like really nice passes.
But if you ask me who has the higher ceiling as a passer, lets
use caros Lavert as an example. I think carros Lavert's a better going to
be a better passer, and there's already a better passion than Jason Tatum.
Chris Middleton is is already there. I don't know if he'll ever take that,
even that Kawai Leonard type leap. And certainly I'm not even gonna include
this season when they had Kawhi running like eighty million picking rolls at the start
of the year when Paul George was out, So that might be something that
I'd be more concerned about moving forward. But I view his offense as basically
established at this point. And then when you just combine that, I think
he does have all NBA caliber defense. It's his workload is sort of streamlined
by Jalen Brown defends a lot of the you know, bigger forwards and you
have Marcus Smart there, but Tatum provides really good help around the basket,
and he can make he makes them. You know, I would call him
safe gambles if there is such a thing. So, just based on the
impact he's had, I think it's fair to wonder can he be the best
player on a championship team right now? But it definitely seems like he's headed
in in that direction. Yeah, I think that's all I'm saying, I
would hate to make it sound like I'm shitting on him as a as a
prospect, which he's sort of. I mean, if we're going to be
honest about it, he still is in like the prospect phase of his development
because he's only twenty two. But I just I'm not ready to give him
the Kawai is a really interesting comparison actual because I think there's a future where
he is almost like that kind of a two way like I'm gonna decide the
result of this playoff series player. I'm just saying I don't think he's there
yet, and I'm it feels to me like that's the the It feels to
me like a lot of people think he is there, and I just think
he's gonna get there, but he isn't there. What would you call him?
Small distinction? Right now? If I had to put your is it
you know, top if he if you don't think he's top ten or top
twelve already, where do you think he falls? Man, I'm so bad
at the rankings. I would say that I would frame it this way.
Well, this is going to be such a cop out because this is just
a factual statement about what he is. I think he can be the best
player on a team that wins like up you know, high fifties or up
to sixty games in a full season, like I think that's where he is.
Sixties maybe a little a little high. But so if that, if
that makes him top ten. It's such a hard question because here's maybe go
ahead, Maybe it's a better way to frame it would be so right now
and you're not saying you won't be this in the future, but right now
you're saying that he is not going to be the best player on a championship
team, like the Celtics aren't going to win the title this year. Correct
that that's what I would say. That might be a better pot take,
right, that's I mean, yeah, one of the other fifteen teams that
makes the playoffs gonna win. Hey, Dan, I'm taking the field over
Jason Tatum. Mark it down. That is bold. Yeah, right,
No, Yeah, I don't know. He's really good. I just I'm
thinking more and more about it. I'm not sure that he's quite as good
yet as a perception is. Let's see, that was kind of that was
my that was my Jason Tatum piece. I have a Russell Westbrook thought,
would you like to hear that one. Let's stay in the Eastern Conference first
with Okay, I have one. I'm out on the Sixers still, even
though they're moving. And I told you I was going to force this into
the discussion because I wanted to talk about Ben Simmons moving to the full or
I'm just still kind of out on them. I know the numbers are good
when embiid and Simmons play without Horford, and as we mentioned before we recorded
this shake, Milton was playing well leading into the break. I just don't
I don't trust that this team in the aggregate has enough ball secondary ball handling,
or ball handling at all, and functional shooting, not just someone who's
gonna hit a three, but can score a three off the dribble, can
face up and get you a bucket that way, or just even score you
know, quick fire coming around to screen. I just I really I doubt
it. And again, the offense rates in the ninety third percentile went embiad
and Simmons play without Horford this year, so I am sort of going against
convention, but I'm still just sort of out on them, and I'm I
think this offseason, maybe this isn't so hot. But I think what needs
to be spicy about it is I believe that they need to do something major.
I wouldn't fire Brett Brown and I wouldn't trade Simmons or Embiid are the
only things that I really wouldn't do. And I don't know what you can
do with Al Horford. He's over to eighty one million dollars over the next
three seasons, sixty nine million guaranteed. And then Tobias Harris is on the
books for four years in one hundred and forty seven point three million, which
arguably could be harder to move just based on the salary cap probably shrinking this
year. If I'm them, I'm trying to get Chris Paul from ok See
with Horford as the anchor. What do you need to attach to it?
Is it Richardson? Is it a pick? Would I probably wouldn't give up
fiveable in that situation, but I'd be willing to listen about it. Can
you even get into the conversation for an Oladipo or Bradley Beal? And So
I did think that maybe this wasn't a hard enough truth. So I'm going
to loop it into this and I believe that one of the Sixers or the
Pacers is going to be I don't want to say quasi dismantled, but they're
going to end up trading at least one of their four best players, if
not two, over the summer. And for the Pacers, this is just
a nod towards the Victor Oladipos stuff. I don't know if there's a disconnect
between he and the organization, but if they're at all worried about him leaving
in twenty twenty one free agency, even if the relationship is good, you
have to look at trading him and maybe you don't even want to pay him
because of this rupture, right quad. That might keep him out of Disney,
but also might not keep him out of Disney because he's feeling he's feeling
great, and I don't know that you want him to be the player that
you pay nearmax money too. And for the Pacers, you are also aren't
going to pay nearmax money to four different players you have brogged in Turner,
Sabonis, and then Oladipo. They're making nearly eighty million dollars combine next season.
Once Oladipo's on his new contract, you know, he's around twenty twenty
one million right now, so that probably goes up by you know, a
few million, so you're looking between like eighty four to eighty six million.
I don't see them making that type of commitment to four players. And then
of course there's the Sabonis Turner partnership. It feels like that just needs to
be busted up, that one of them needs to go. I still am
bullish on Miles Turner's future over Sabonis, even though he's been appreciably the better
player season. It also seems like Turner would be the player who's more scalable
to teams, and so he's going to give you more on the trade market.
It might just be easier to move. So that I wanted to make
sure I loop this into a real hard truth and didn't want to make it
seemed like a cop out, because I'm sure plenty of people are out on
the Sixers, but that's sort of I just still don't feel great about Philly.
I'm fascinated by them, but they made me wildly uncomfortable. And I
think one of these two teams and it's almost I think it's more context dependent
for the Sixers looking at the postseason, it's for the Pacers because they just
might not have Aladipo or he just might not even look that great because of
how little he's played this year. But I still believe that one of them
is going to end up making major changes this summer. So it's like it's
like you're inside my brain a little bit, because the last couple of things
I've worked on included sort of a bold prediction. That one was that the
Sixers will not improve their playoff seed, which is sixth, during this run
up to the playoffs, which is just sort of a nuts take because their
schedule is super easy and you know they should move up, but I don't
think they will. And a lot of it has to do with the things
that you mentioned, which are that that I would sort of synthesize and just
say, there's just there's too many they're less than the some of their parts,
the whole's less than some of the parts. There's too many weird things
about the fit of all these players. There's just like not new information.
And then the home road split probably doesn't mean anything, but it's so crazy
that the twenty nine and two at home and the ten and twenty four.
Like that just that makes me, with no factual basis to it at all,
think like something's wrong here. There's just this isn't working. That's the
basis of this podcast. We don't want any factuality here. It just it
comes down. So yeah, I agree with that the pay. And then
the other thing is is I was working on trades to get you know,
non playoff teams into the playoffs, and I kept going back to the Pacers
to because think on the thinking that like, well, the Pacers got to
break up, break this up. They're not going to pay over eighteen point
five million apiece to four different guys next year, and then with the possibility
of Oladipo making significantly more than that if they extend them, like I just
which would be the next year. But you get the idea. The Pacers
are so tax averse historically and just have made you know, had a ton
of success while being kind of penny pinchers. Like that's just that's untenable for
for that organization to have four high dollar guys. So I do think that
of the two, the Sixers seem to me like the more likely to have
the you know, the blow up or the significant, big name move just
because they're viewed as you know, all right, you know, we went
through the their circumstances are different. We went through the process, we came
out the other side with Embiad and Simmons, and they're the window is now.
It's open now because Embiad's health is always going to be a question.
That whole thing. If they don't deliver, which I kind of don't think
they will, it means so much more than if the Pacers don't, for
several reasons, just but the biggest one being that nobody expects the Pacers to
really do anything. So I do think that the Sixers are kind of primed
for some kind of big shake up Chris Paul. Look, I honestly,
if if that was possible, if that was in the cards a Chris Paul
trade, I think that you I would give up type wool, I would
give up basically every future asset I had, because this is really your shot.
I don't think you know that you can sort of have it both ways.
If you're gonna if you're gonna overpay for Chris Paul, who I don't
even know what sort of the asking price is for him at this point.
Because he played great this year, but he's gonna be a year older,
but also another year comes off his deal, so he's more palatable. I
don't know, but he's someone that fits exactly what they need. He'd be
the adult in the room. He'd get Simmons off the ball more. I
just I think I would kind of go really all in for him. It
would just be a question of the thunder want anything that the Sixers could put
together for that, I don't. I would just be curious because Horford's deal
is it spans longer than Chris Paul's, even though it's cheaper during that time,
particularly when you look at the guaranteed money, I think you would save
like almost seventeen million, and look, he'd be reunited with Billy Donovan.
I don't really know if that matters at all, but Steven Adams is already
there. I don't know what you would have to attach. You also have
to attach more salary to make the money work. And at that point,
Josh Richardson, it was Josh Richardson and Horford does that do it? And
if you're the Sixers, do you do you do that trade? I don't
know. I mean, I don't know, I just think, well,
maybe this will transition us to It depends on if you think the window is
right now and or if the window is shut and we're gonna you want to
talk about the Jazz a little bit, But do you have another East guy
East team to get to? Because I have a I have a title window
one myself that I like to hit. I'm ready to hear. Let's talk
about Chris Paul's former teams, Russell Westbrook's now team now current team. Oh
yeah, kind I forgot I already moved on from Russell Westbrook. No,
this is a this is a quick one. I just think and this is
a hard truth. Uh. We've continued to like sort of draw a dividing
line between casual and non casual fans. And if you said to the casual
fan that Russell Westbrook is really really gonna matter a ton in the Rockets playoff
run, they'd be like, cool, he's great. But I think for
people that have kind of been on the side that he's a floor raising kind
of overrated, inefficient player for several years, that's a scary thought. But
here's here's the idea. And I'll con see that he's been way better since
the Rockets abandoned centers kind of convinced him to stop threes. Convinced him,
or maybe he decided, whatever, get to the basket all the time,
finish at the rim, don't shoot jump shots, just run around, cut,
do all this stuff in a spaced out floor. I think that,
like, look the layoff, you can say it's gonna revive Harden. He's
not going to have his typical kind of playoff wear down disappointment. I'll believe
that when I see it. I'll believe that the foul drawing stuff, you
know, will continue to work in the playoffs when I see it. It
just hasn't. I think Harden is, you know, still a great player.
But I do think that Westbrook's role in Houston's successful or failure might be
as big as Harden's because Harden will get the attention, and I think Westbrook
is going to have to play at least as well as he did sort of
when he flipped the switch or got things figured out, you know, midway
through this year, and I just question whether he's capable of at I haven't
been the biggest Westbrook fan just in general, but I think it is a
hard truth that like rockets, a lot depends on Russell Westbrook going forward,
and that's kind of a dicey proposition to me. I don't know if doubt
is a is a hard truth for when it comes to Russell Westbrook just yet.
I don't. I'm not sure who was actually a fan of that trade.
And it probably looks a little bit better now because he's actually been,
you know, better than James Harden, playing better than James Hardon excuse me
for for a little while before the league shut down. In theory, though,
this is the first time that he's ever been able to like play with
you know, four shooters around him. The fact that it took this long
into his career for that to happen is actually sort of wild, and I
think that lends itself to Hey, maybe the way he's playing right now is
it can work, but like, at what cost? Is it taking the
ball out of Harden's hands a little bit too much? Which seems stupid because
Harden is so high usage. And then you do have to think about the
long term viability of this. He's on the books for three years at at
Supermac's money after this one, So I'm definitely with you with the skepticism.
I just don't I honestly don't know. And I'm curious to see how it
works out in the playoffs, because you know, I'm a fan of small
ball, and so I tend to think that they'll be able to mismatch a
few teams into oblivion. And it's like you mentioned, I mean, so
many more of his field goal attempts are coming inside five feet and I think
that ultimately works. But you're punting on the rebounding battle, and then you
are going to go through stretches where Russ takes his usual shots. He's even
been shooting above thirty five percent from three I believe since Clint Capella left the
rotation, not even before he was traded, but since he left the rotation,
when that sort of reverts to normal, that could hurt you. Even
though his volume is down, and so there's there seems like there's a lot
of variants in the Rockets outcomes, and it's definitely fair to wonder whether this
is a just a championship level team. It's not. It's just full stop
for me. I don't know. I just for all the reasons you know,
I love small ball too, I just think they just don't have enough
players number one and number two. I think Charles Barkley now with my numbering
my points, I just I'm not ready. This is again we're keep going
back to gut stuff because it's been so long since we've seen basketball. I
feel like I'm just reverting to that. Like, I just don't think Harden
is capable of leading a championship team, at least this championship team to a
championship. I don't think Westbrook is either, and I think together same deal
championship wise. Though you have a jazz take, Are you ready to give
me your jazz take? Yeah? I think, And I know there are
a lot of jazz fans that listen to this podcast, And so I'm saying
this out of just genuine concern about the team's future. I think that while
while they needed to go all in last Sea last offseason, I think that
like the opportunity to win a title with this core is gone. And I
don't like, if you want to say that, well, they're still next
year, Mike Conley's under contract. That's mostly fine to me, But there's
just something about them just feels untenable to me. And so you have like
losing Boyad Bogdanovitch for the rest of this year, Like it really ends up
hurting. Conley and Angels are going to be in their age thirty three seasons
next year, Bodonovitch will be in his age thirty one campaign. Gobert's supermat
Max eligible after this season, and when his next deal kicks in, it'll
be for his age twenty nine season. Donovan Mitchell is going to be on
a max money Uh, they'll probably sign him to an extension this offseason.
I'm regardless. The following year is going to be on a max money deal
twenty twenty two. I don't want I would wonder if that payroll is tenable.
If you have Gobert Mitchell and then Bogdanovitch is going to be wrapping up
his big money deal. What are you going to do after Mike Conley comes
off the books? Like, what's the answer in the backcourt with Mitchell?
Do you think that he's going to be a primary point guard at that point?
There's a lot of versatility to this team, but I just don't I
don't see them genuinely contending for a title anymore. I think Mike Conley would
have to be Memphis Mike Conley for that to happen, and so there is
room for me to be There's always room for me to be wrong, because
I'm always wrong. And so if Mike Conley comes back and they're just torching
opponents in the playoffs, but if Mike Conley is just on a decline,
which again is incredibly possible, that ends up being a huge problem for this
team. And the only way that I could think of wedging open the title
window, or even opening it at all, would be, can you work
out a Conley for Chris Paul type deal? Are you willing to even pay
that? Because Paul has I think eighty five point six is the exact number
million and two years left on his contract, So in the final year of
his deal, you'll be talking about a new deal Rudy Gobert and a new
deal Donovan Mitchell that might be financially untenable for Utah. What I would also
do this offseason is that if you can't get go Bear on what you think
is a reasonable extension, or he's really looking for big money, I would
look at trading him. And I know that sounds so stupid, because he's
a generational defender, and I'm not doubting that he might. I don't think
he should win Defensive Player of the Year this year. I believe he was
my pick the past two seasons, and if he won it this year,
I wouldn't you know, I wouldn't really have any criticism there. I know
it seems like there were some dynamic issues on the court where he seemed more
frustrated than it didn't look like. For there was this part of the season
where the games that I twoed into, it didn't feel like he was just
getting back as quickly as he normally does. I get that moving him sounds
dumb because what are you going to get for him, just because the way
that the center position has gone over the past few years. At the same
time, that deal in that he will sign in twenty twenty one free agency,
whether it comes from you or another team, because there will be a
team that that pays him, just because there's going to be more teams with
cap space at that point. And look, he's a generational defender, but
you have to at least gauge the market for him. And I also know
that he's your best player. But I also believe that Donovan Mitchell is easier
to build around just because of the type of game that he plays, which
is he's a primary scoring guard. He can face up, attack the ball
off the dribble. It's not just that he makes the glitzy plays, It's
that he's going to be a He's more likely to be an offensive engine,
and I think those are better to build championship teams around than these, you
know, a defensive stalwart like Rudy Gobert. And so I'm not even saying
that Rudy Gobert can be mismatched off the floor, because even when he struggled
against the Rockets last year, the Jazz were able to find ways around that.
And he can step out and is quicker there, and I think people
give him credit for he's a really good player. But if I'm the Jazz,
I'm looking at what happened this season. I'm just looking at the age
of some of these guys. I'm looking at the contract situations, and unless
I'm going to double down and again go after that Chris Paul trade, I'm
gonna look at moving Rudy Gobert. I don't know that I ultimately do it,
but saying that these are the two that you want to build around and
build a championship team around. I don't think you can default to that right
now. And this says nothing of the friction between them. I'm not Look,
everything could be hunky dory between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, and I'm
still going to feel the same way. I'm I'm least concerned about whatever friction
exists. The Jazz say they aren't worried about it. You and I know
that you don't need to be best friends to win in the NBA. And
there's just this, you know, fans are and I'm not even saying this
critically, they're they're disillusioned if they think that all these guys are hanging out
and on good terms. It's like, you know, I get this way
if there's a band like that you're a fan of, if you want them
to be just best friends off the stage, but you don't realize that it's
actually also a business. And I'm speaking as a blinkin eighty two Diehard here,
So I know all that works. That's so I'm really not worried about
that. It's everything else that I just mentioned, And so I think the
Jazz I don't know who I would pick them to beat looking at their potential
playoff matchups, I'm not sure that I would pick them to win a series
right now, and that might change. If you know, Mike Conley comes
back for the remainder of the regular season and he's just dominating, has this
chemistry with Colbert out the pick and roll because he's used how the Jazz are
playing and he's just not dealing with hamstring issues. But this is a team
that I don't think that you need to say they should dismantle it and go
into a rebuild, but they should probably to me, look at look at
my Conley trade scenarios if they're out there, But Rudy Gobert should not,
to me be untouchable moving forward for this squad. So as you were first
talking, I thought I thought that you were gonna sort of frame the discussion
around well Gobert is a is gonna get the Jazz? Are gonna pay Gobert
or the Max. It's like a foregone conclusion, which you didn't say,
which I'm glad because that's like that hangs over this as much as anything else.
If if what we're talking about is whether or not the Jazz's window is
shut. I agree they're not a threat to win a title this year.
I think winning a series would be probably the high end of their spectrum of
outcomes. But no, I think Gobert is not remotely a no brainer supermax
guy. In fact, I think it would be a terrible decision to do
that. And so yeah, that's that, because then that gets us into
the same situation we always get into with huge names that can't agree to terms
on a on a giant extension and then their trade candidates. That's just sort
of how the process operates. And so that as much as anything makes Gobert,
it makes the Jazz their window if it was open ever, you know,
really narrow maybe shut. Now. The thing The other thing though,
is is I do put a lot of stock in the Gobert Mitchell relationship.
On it on its own, you know, it wouldn't be circul you know,
all in a vacuum, all things being equal, whatever sort of you
know, caveat you want to put on it, I wouldn't be as concerned
about it. But when you combine the fact that the financial circumstances are going
to sort of make it, you know, prudent or to to move Gobert
or sort of make it excusable to the fan base to move Gobert. That
gives you sort of another reason not to try to mend fences that maybe can't
be mended. And I think this is another sort of you know, talk
radio whatever take, But like, how often do you hear rumblings about two
stars on a team, you know, not liking each other. And I
think that's fair to say they were, you know, certainly Mitchell was really
upset at least for a while. And even did you you read the piece
right, Yeah, it was just even some of the quotes that Colbert gave.
I know he was also sort of taking responsibility, but he was like
some people just can't take that type of criticism and that that was that was
a shot. It's heem very passive aggressive no. So so just how often
do we see that level of pretty obvious, you know, failure to get
along correct itself and and like what's what are it just doesn't you know,
again, no facts, no law, It's just it just doesn't feel like
a situation that we come out the other side of this and they win a
title. I just think that's another thing you add to it. Plus the
idea that Gobert, great as he is, is not a not you know,
a top, top top guy you want as your best player on a
championship team just because of his position, his size. It's just that's not
where the league is. I do think there's another thing that's kind of just
by way of comparison, right to sort of frame this, Like, you
know, the Nuggets I think are a team that if they were to get
bounced in the first round this year, which I also think is possible,
they were winning championship pick at the beginning of the year. I just want
a record to state that I feel very unconfident in that it's not looking great.
But no, so yeah, no, I And at the time,
sure, right, like the they were young, Yokich had an absolutely great
shot to win MVP. He ple ended up playing great. But but here's
the difference. So if the Jazz get bounced, you've got the Mitchell Gobert
relationship, You've got Gobert's contract, You've got all these things that say,
all right, this isn't this isn't it, let's change it. If the
Nuggets get bounced, I still think you can chalk it up to well,
Jamal Murray is just not ready. Yokich is still young. We like what
we have. Let's run it back, Let's try to, you know,
upgrade Gary Harris, Let's do this, Let's do that. You're not gonna
make fundamental changes. You got to decide on Jeremy Grant, Paul millsap one
the other both. I don't know, but I don't think the fallout would
be the same. Whereas all this other stuff going into the Jazz situation,
I do think distinguishes it and makes it sort of more I don't know,
volatile is not the right word, but sort of more prone to generating a
pretty dramatic reaction to a playoff disappointment, if that makes any sense. It
feels weird to say that, though, because they just went the all in
route. It was traded for Conley and sign Boya Vogdanovich in the same offseason.
Yeah, you know, it doesn't alway work. The Conley thing was
a failure, and injury had a lot to do with that. But but
you mentioned some of the ages too, like there are a lot of key
guys. Gobert's twenty eight, I mean, that's not old, but but
if you're picking between him and Mitchell. I mean, look, a four
year deal is going to take him through his age thirty three season or something
like that. That's that's dangerous. And I'm not I don't think he's They
shouldn't give him the supermats, and if they do, it's going to be
an issue. But I don't even like and this isn't even a I'm not
trying to take a shot at his actual value, but just the way teams
are built now and how he's used relative to what the ideal center is,
Like, what can you afford to pay him without actually hamstringing yourself? How
much do you want to invest in your in your starting center, even if
he is going to contend for Defensive Player of the Year awards for the next
I guess it could be fair to say if he stays healthy the next half
decade, Yeah, no, it's yeah, it's you could. Two things
can be true. Gobert can be a great player, and that can be
true. Can also be true that the Jazz shouldn't build their team around him,
you know that just that's just not his fault. That's just circumstances being
what they are, financially, interpersonally, positionally, It's just you know that
I think I totally agree with you about the Jazz's window being shut, and
I think maybe in hindsight it was never actually opened in the first place.
The thing that I really only just occurred to me too, though, is
that moving him becomes tricky, not only because what is going to be the
demand, but the Jazz aren't going to be looking to start over. It'd
be different if they were. And so that you can you know, Charlotte
came with all the picks and Miles Bridges and uh, you know PJ.
Washington and again just this year's pick future picks because you know they're gonna suck
anyway. I'm not I might have just named one of the least attractive building
team packages out there. Even the Knicks could be thrown in there. But
you're gonna want these win now pieces, And so what team is going to
help facilitate that type of deal? You know? Brooklyn kind of stands out
to me where they have LeVert and Spencer, Dinwoody and Jared Allen, but
they also have DeAndre Jordan. So do they want Rudy Gobert because apparently Katie
and Kyrie think that he that DeAndre Jordan is still a star, and DeAndre
Jordan seems like a good dude. He also has apparently has really good friends.
So I'm just I'm like struggling. I know, people name the Celtics,
but they don't really want rim running bigs and they're definitely not gonna even
if they traded for him, you can't. That's not gonna be a situation
that I think they're gonna want to pay him. And then two, they
don't have the salary matching fodder to do it unless you're including Gordon Hayward in
there, And that's just that's hysterical because that's not happening. And so you
go through these teams. I just don't know who Gobert is great. I
just don't know what team is like going to go all in on a trade
for him. I was messing around with trade ideas the other day and one
of the interesting teams that came up was the Bulls, And you'd have to
sort of accept the idea that they would max him out, but like you
could do something with if Chicago said, take Kobe White, take Wendell Carter
Jr. We'll give you a first rounder with you know, light if any
protections. Daddy is young to make the money work. Give us Rudy Gobert,
and then you see Chicago with Gobert and they bring back Chris Dunn.
So you got your defensive sort of bookends. And then you can just get
away with Zach Lavine and Laurie Marking and Otto Porter sort of in between that,
and that's kind of interesting and if you're the Bulls, it'd certainly be
splashy. I'm not sure that the Jazz would be interested in, you know,
a sort of a project center, but I do like Carter and scoring
Guard who I don't know how you fit that with Mitchell, but like there's
sort of a squint really hard and see something there. But you know,
would Gobert I wanna maybe that's the only you know, honestly, it would
depend a lot on who's willing to pay him what he thinks he's worth,
and that might really narrow the teams down to maybe he's not going to land
on a winner and stick with one if if it comes down to money.
I don't know. I don't know if those are his intentions, but yeah,
totally agree that it's tough to sort of figure out what to do with
him. If if it comes to the point that you got to do something
with him, do you have any hard truths left? I got another kind
of a bummer one. It's real quick. I just think it fits into
it fits into sort of what we've been talking about. I think the Warriors
run as like a serious title threat is it's it's over. I don't know
if that's hot. I mean, I think Steph Curry, we've said,
use the term generational talent, I mean Curry's. You could make a case
still that he's the most the biggest difference maker you can put on an NBA
roster. I think Clay Thompson will be good, I think, but that's
not enough. I think Andrew Wiggins is still Andrew Wiggins. I think Draymond
Green is very clearly going to age poorly and has already probably started that,
although it's hard to really be sure, just because he was not trying this
year. Understandably, I think the only you know, getting you honest somehow
or somehow hitting just a monster home run with the trade exception would be really
the only way forward. But I so, if you let's frame it this
way, is Steph Curry gonna win another championship in his career with the Warriors.
Oh, man, I don't. That's such a tough question. I
know, I I don't think so, and I would and and and that's
while believing that Curry is going to age about as well as like any player
in history has because as long as he's going to be able to stretch the
defense as an off ball threat, he'll be useful. But it's just it,
they're they're just so overleveraged with these big contracts to guys that are really,
you know, very into their primes or you know, you're already past
them. I just, uh, it sucks. I mean, I you
know, I grew up a Warriors fan, like I got the best five
years I could have ever asked for from a fan perspective. But I just
don't. I just don't think there's a way back from this. Honestly,
game on you for not being higher on Andrew Wiggins. I do think he'll
be better there than he's been anyplace else, But like, what kind of
what kind of bar are we talking about? You know, would that not
be one of the worst, you know, dozen guys per dollar in the
league. I do. I'm with you in the sense that if you if
the Warriors are going to be a contender, I think you have to believe
in what's already in place. You can't. I mean, you should never
assume that Jana isn't The GUPO is coming, but like the logistics to get
him would just be would be wild. And then they really just don't have
a means to improve their team unless all of a sudden Andrew Wiggins or Draymond
Green becomes an asset on their current deals, which I don't think either of
them will be. I'm not out on Draymond. Draymond Green's deal as much
as everybody else. I do think it has the potential to age quite poorly
after what we've seen this year, but you think if the stakes are higher
and the games matter, he'll play harder. There's the injuries obviously to Klay,
Thompson and Steff do you have to consider. I think they can still
be in the mix, but that their window. We're talking one or two
years to in a title and that's it, and where do you go from
There is the issue, because I think Clay and Steph their games can technically
age quite well. Maybe not so much for Clay on defense, but how
are you going to surround them with the proper talent when, as you said,
they are so over leverage. So I think next season and probably the
one after that, if we're looking at this team, they'll still be in
the mix. And I think unless Steph and Curry all of a sudden isn't
good next year, or Clay Thompson falls off, there'll still be a draw
if they're willing to spend the taxpayers mid level exception or if you know,
if they're willing to use that trade exception, I think this would be the
summer to use it, because I do believe all these teams are going to
be looking to cut money relative to how much the cap shrinks and then the
revenue hit that they've taken this year, So maybe this might be the ideal
summer if you're willing to spend to use that trade exception. The flip side
being, are the Warriors going to be among the teams that are willing to
spend when you just paid, you know, to have Chase Center and that
revenue not only is it not going to be there for the rest of this
season, but it's probably not going to be there for most, if not
all, of next season, right, that's I mean talk about that's the
absolute biggest unknown is like that thing was supposed to and would have put the
Warriors in a position where they're spending power. I think it was just going
to be astronomical, and I mean you can see that by the way they
built the roster. They just I think decided several years ahead of time,
like we're going to pay a bunch attacks and now I just I don't know
if that's a sustainable way to operate, because are we going to have fans
at games, like, I just I don't know. What's how does that
change things. That's a whole other factor that I think probably cuts further against
them kind of getting back close to what they were. I'm with you.
I have another actually let me go with a positive hard yes, let's please
do. And so I don't know which one it is, one of the
Thunder or the Pelicans need to enter this summer as buyers, like they need
to go on the Superstar trade market and try and get involved. I don't
know if that's I think that's probably pretty on the you know, on the
spicy end of the spectrum, just because the Thunder they were supposed to blow
this roster up, and there are financial concerns being in a small market for
them. They're in the tax right now for this year. If they resigned
Gallinari, they could. They won't be in it next year, but they'll
be right up against it. And what are the repercussions then of trading for
a star? But they have Dennis Shrewder, Steven Adams two expiring deals,
They have what could be fifteen first round picks between now and two and twenty
six. Go in there and see if you can enter the Bradley Beal discussions.
You're obviously not going to trade again for Victor Oladipo and then the superstar.
The potential superstar market gets pretty bare after that, And so maybe I'm
sort of overstating their position, but be on the lookout for that. I
think they've played well enough to where you know, is riding out Chris Paul's
contract the worst thing in the world for them. I don't know how much
they care about about money. I'm sure. I'm sure it's a ton So
perhaps it is for the Pelicans specifically. I don't want to read too much
into the small sample size, but here's the fact of the matter. Anyway,
you don't want to over expedite a rebuild because then it puts you in
this same over leveraged and underperforming situation that you were in with Anthony Davis,
and look at how that turned out. You don't want to botch the Zion
Williamson's career in that vein. But you're already paying Drew holiday Star money,
brandon Ingram's about to get a max deal. Lonzo Ball is going to be
extension knowledgable this summer, ditto for Josh Hart. And you have those picks
that you receive from the Lakers, and look those distant Lakers first round picks,
they have the option that I'm looking at the twenty twenty four Lakers pick
with the option to defer until twenty twenty five. That low key is one
of the best trade assets in the NBA. I know the Lakers have Anthony
Davis, but Lebron if he's still playing, will he won b in LA
or two will age fifty six, Lebron whatever means at that point still be
at this level, And so I'm not I wouldn't dangle that it would have
to be really for a fortune's turning talent, but that can really anchor I
feel like a trade on its own, so Bradley Bible comes available, the
New Orleans Pelicans should should absolutely be involved if for some reason Jannis demanded a
trade. That's a team. I don't know if his fit with Zion Williamson
is perfect, so maybe that's a terrible example, but they feel like they
have the asset equity to do it. Lonzo Ball is really good and he's
like fairly good salary matching fodder at this point. Yes, you do have
to pay him, so that would factor in to his next team. If
the Jannie thing did devolve, and I don't think it will. That's another
hard truth. Jannie is going to sign the Supermax. That's this might be
terrible really, so oh, let's get to that one then after this one,
because that was another, like pleasant whatever one it would had to do
with twenty twenty one free agency anyway, though, if Jannie doesn't sign the
s Max and the Bucks have to blow it up, I don't think it
goes that route this offseason at least, But the Pelicans would be a prime
landing spot for Chris Middleton. I would think he provides basically everything of what
they need. So I am I'm looking if New Orleans was No, I'm
not even gonna say that name because that'll get out of control. So if
I'm the Pelicans or I'm the Thunder, one of these teams needs to go
all in this summer, like let's just see it, see it happen.
I'm not for waiting. I'm not trying to. At the same time,
I'm not trying to ruin a rebuild either, And so this is I would
call it a pleasantly hard truth, but we don't need to gradual play this
for either team. And I also think maybe the harder truth is neither of
these teams I think gets to the championship APEX as currently constructed, and that's
probably more aimed at New Orleans than it is Oklahoma City, just because they
have more established talent, and you sort of know that. I don't know
what the Pelicans do at center long term. I'm Jackson Hayes. I go
back and forth on Derk Favors is good, he's not great, or you're
gonna pay him this summer? Is Zion Williams and how is he going to
do at the five? If you want to really lean into those minutes moving
forward. So I want to see those teams by. I want to see
them use their mid levels, whichever ones they have access to, the non
taxpayer for New Orleans, and then depending on what Gallo cost, you know,
I'd resign him Fazo Oklahoma City and try and run this back, because
you could always move them if it's not a terrible deal. I want to
see those two teams by this offseason. I think the Thunder are the more
intriguing of the two for me, because I just feel like New Orleans is
more likely to slow play this because they just, you know, they've got
so many young guys that you could just sort of be conservative, hope some
of your picks hit going forward, and then you've got just this ridiculous core.
Obviously, you know, that's sort of ignoring the fact that you're going
to have to pay Ingram basically now and you still got some other big contracts.
But they seem more likely to kind of take the gradual approach, even
though I do agree they are positioned to just, you know, swing real
big if they want to. The Thunder are so draft pick rich that they
could basically do this do both because they could trade they could take a huge
swing. Yeah, bring Gallo back. You know, you probably don't want
to go too long on that one. But even if you do, you
still got a zillion first round picks to attach if you ever have to trade
them down the line. They could trade a bunch of these picks, a
bunch of salad, or how whatever they want to do, and still not
exhaust the treasure trove of all these picks, so they could make a run
and get a big name and then still just like, oh, well that
was cool for a year or two, Chris Paul's done. Now we got
all these first round picks. We can get off all this money, or
we can use these picks, wait the money out and just retool. I
mean, they are so just flush that it's like not even risky for them
to trade a bunch of picks or to do whatever they need to do to
win now, because it's almost impossible for them to give up so many assets
to win now that they wouldn't have a chance to win later. And I
don't really think I can't remember the last time. I guess you go back
to some of those Boston teams that actually never really did uh, you know,
make the biggest trades and Danny Angels always talking about like, oh,
we were in this, we were in that. The Celtics obviously the position
there and now they played it just fine. But it's harder to think of
a team that had the opportunity to sort of just have everything both ways like
the thunder Do right now. You're honest. Things surprised me. So you
think it's done. You think he's gonna sign the Supermax. I maybe this
is more fair if he doesn't sign. I don't think he's leaving. I
think he ends up resigning him Milwaukee. So but at that point, why
wouldn't you sign the Supermax? They would take a total playoff implosion. I
think for him not to sign the Supermax right now, and so that led
me into it would be Another hard truth is twenty one free agency is gonna
suck. Oh that's like, that's a hot take, Dan, Sorry,
but that's a hot take. That's not a hard truth. That's a hot
take because everybody thinks that it's gonna be great. Let's look at the names
that are making it great. I don't disagree with you, by the way,
I'm just saying that the conventional wisdom says, twenty twenty one is like
the Holy Grail of free agent classes? Right? And so are Paul George
and Quine Letter who both have player options. Are they gonna leave the team
that they chose to play for together? No? Probably don't know. May
I mean maybe Lebron James has a player option that year? Is he going
to leave Anthony Davis? If he and if he does, where's where's he
actually going? Would you go? Just go back to Cleveland? That's just
his FREEBC? Isn't that interesting to me? Then you have Chris Chris Paul
is not going to decline his player option. I think we can all be
pretty clear about that. Blake Blake Griffin's not going to decline his player option.
Gordon Hayward will be on the market as well Mike Conley. But are
either of those top twenty five players. No, they're like mid level guys
because they're gonna be thirty one and thirty three. Wow, mid levels.
That that's a hot take. You're gonna pay Mike Conley more than that after
what you watched this year. Probably Gordon Hayward as mid level though, all
right, that's harsh take. I guess Kyle Lowry's interesting, but it'll also
be he'll be thirty five at that point. Damar de Rosen's value a sort
of crater. You need to surround him with just four shooters who can defend,
and he's not. I don't think he's that great of a player to
go to that length for So then that leaves you with Rudy Gobert like that's
he's a primetime free agent, don't I. And that's if he gets there.
Drew Holliday has a player option, My guests would be he declines it
twenty six point four million just because he's like kind of in that sweet spot
where he could probably sign another long term deal. Joannie might sign it an
extension with the Bucks or just stay in Milwaukee. Victor Oladipo, what is
he going to look like post injury? And if he's there's a chance he
signs an extension still too, I don't know if I don't think the Pacers
really want to pay him what he would demand. So let's just assume he
reaches the free agency market. But if this is there's a realistic scenario in
which the top prize is on the twenty twenty one free agency market or Drew
Holliday and Victor Ladipo to me, and that just makes it a lot less
interesting because you know, everyone below them, like cool, Danny Green is
going to be a free agent. I'd love Danny Green, but he's going
to be whatever your bite, your tongue talking about Danny Green. Danny Green
is phenomenal, but I'm just saying one is not going to be the banger
that everyone thinks it's going to be. So all the player options definitely serve
your point, because, like you said, there's a lot of guys that
are going to be on the wrong side of thirty in a very uncertain financial
landscape that might want to just take the mid thirty million dollar a year they've
got and you know, run it back for twenty two. The other thing
is there's so many guys that are over thirty. All the almost all the
big names are over thirty, which and you know, potentially just inching closer
and closer to being washed while still being big names, which Dan means that
at least two of them are going to sign with the Knicks, So you're
gonna be seeing, like you know what, Gordon Hayward and Mike Conley near
me too. New York Knicks starters for twenty one twenty two season market down.
Wow, they're gonna have Mike Conley and Chris Paul on the same team.
That's where's Chris Paul going to play next year? If you if you
have, I mean, I know we want to just talk about the thunder,
but we should. I'm just curious on your thoughts. He should be
playing for the Jazz or the Sixers. Those are the teams that he should
be playing for. Miami, of course, if the honest attent to Koopo
signs the Supermax, He's going to be playing for the Knicks. That's just
my gut feeling at this point. It kind of feels that way. It
really kind of does feel that way. That's why the Knicks made me think
of him too. You know what, though, the East isn't that hard
to make playoffs Chris Paul with like a couple upgrades and afart Jar that just
shouldn't be the goal though, But it always is. It always is.
Sorry, but that's always the goal. I don't care who's in charge anymore,
it doesn't matter. It's systemic. I'm totally with you. Do you
have I have one more hard truth. Do you have another one? Uh?
Not anyone that I'm itching to get to. So let's hear yours.
I am very concerned about the Brooklyn Nets future. We talked about this last
time. Oh did we that? Maybe? I know, let's hear it.
I have not grown less concerned. Let's let's do it. I don't
think here's what. So we already talked about the injuries to Irving En Durant
and I actually had a long podcast about this with The Daily News is Christian
Winfields, So I'm not going to step on the toes of that. I
really don't believe that they should be going out there trying to consolidate their talent
into a third star. And so maybe this is the I don't think it's
a harder truth to digest. Maybe if you're not a Nets fan, it
might be. But they have more intriguing trade packages than people are giving them
credit for. Jared Allen cast control for now, but just sort of a
nice throwing and who centers don't really cost that much anyway, So getting him
right before restricted free agency I don't think ends up being a huge deal.
Cara Slavert is on a very reasonable contract. I remain high on him just
for his off the dribble creation and I think he's shown a lot as a
passer as well. You have Spencer Dinwoodie could hit free agency after next year,
obviously, but just a great another type of shock creator player. And
then if you would throw in just you know they have other salary matching Torrian
Prince for salary matching. But if you throw in distant first round picks for
this team, that becomes very interesting. Because of the Kevin Durant Kyrie Irving
situation, they have player options on their fourth year, so who knows whether
they stay, who knows where the Nets look like at that point, whether
those two are even playing well at the same time, just because I don't
know what you're gonna get from Durant and Kyrriving. I think depth ends up
being more important than having a third star, And there's an overall debate between
what's better, let's say, having three stars or having two stars and just
more of a digestible or like rotation below them where you can go eight or
nine guys deep. The Nets have the potential to get there. If you
resign Joe Harris, you have Jared Allen carrisa Vert, Spencer Dinwoody. You
need to go that route until you know what Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant is.
So I'm talking about specifically this offseason that I think trading for a third
star would be a mistake if insofar as they can and I don't know who,
I don't know if there's an you personally could throw out there that would
make me second guest this take, But on the scale of where I'm looking
at, even if Joel Embiide became available and then NETS could get him,
I wouldn't do that for them, just because now you're atting another injury plague
star into the equation on a huge money deal, and I think depth is
more important for them and the Bradley Beal stuff. The Daily News talked about
this, and Brian Winners of the ESPN has mentioned it. Then NETS seemed
like they're very much in on Bradley Beal. I get you want a score
at his level. If you don't think Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are going
to be a reliably available or be, particularly in Durant's case, the same
player, but like what happens on defense, then I'm not saying that dim
Woody or Lavert or these lockdown defenders, but like you've now invested all of
your resources in you know, Kevin Durant was is a good defender when he
was a good defender when he was healthy. Kyrie Irving, we saw some
good moments from him in Boston, but like Bradley Beale has been atrocious this
year. And even if you take the best seasons defensively from Kyrie Irving and
Bradley Beale, you probably have close still a below average that court defense.
That's what I would how I would spin it, and I'm I understand that
Lavert is going to require reinvestment at some point and so Dimwitty, But there's
just I would rather see the Nets divvy up their their resources, their cap
space rather than go after a Big three model that I think is just going
to the crater. Just looking under the context that it would come for them,
you have to at least see what Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are,
not just together next season, but specifically with Kevin Durant, what he looks
like. And so that's my I think most people would say, look,
if the Nets you can turn their available assets into a stars at Victor Oladipo,
is it? Is it, Bradley Billy, You absolutely do it.
I just I wouldn't. I need to see what Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant
are before you obliterate what depth you've put together. So I think what I
would say to that is if you look at and it's always unfair to use
the Warriors as a point in comparison, but I look, they were the
best team in the league or very close to it for like five years,
So sort of that's what I'm using as sort of a baseline. And I
think if you know, in addition to multiple and two might be enough superstar
scoring, you know, guys like Durant and Irving could maybe be I'm with
you. I don't. I don't think. Maybe I'm not with you.
Maybe this is just me. I don't think that those two are good enough
will or will be good enough or reliable enough, or have the capacity to
lead a winning team at this stage together. But you need two guys like
that, and then you need a whole bunch of guys that are dramatically outplaying
their salaries. And so to your point, if you go get a third
star, the best you can hope for is a guy that plays up to
his salary, and then you've stripped away all of your other value. Add
guys that are outperforming what they're being paid. So just use Bill as an
example. He'll be worth whatever he's gonna make. He's very good. But
then to do that, you're losing din Witty or some combination of din Witty,
Lavert Allen, all of whom I think are very very likely to play
well above what they're being paid going forward. And so because I think you
need both, you need superstars and you need a bunch of guys who several
a couple of whom pop Like let's say Lavert becomes an All Star unlikely but
possible, and he's gonna make sixteen million dollars next year. Like that's the
kind of thing you need. That And that's really what made the Warriors able
to do what they did. You know, they had not to mention a
bunch of like David West on the minimum like things like that. But Livingston
and we're playing, you know, way more than providing more than at certainly
at least in the playoffs, then he was being paid. Draymond Green doing
much more than you know, his salary would indicate should be expected of him.
Clay Thompson the same way, talking about their previous contracts, not these
ones that they're on now. But you need all that stuff, And if
you go trade for a big third star, in addition to not knowing what
Durant and Irving are going to give you, you're totally removing the possibility of
getting you know, these above market values, which I think you just you
got to have a bunch of them to win a title. Look at the
Raptors last year another another example. I just I just think the third star
is the the you know, the ticket seller if tickets gets sold, the
appealing idea, but it's not. I yeah, it's not going to do
it. I think their best, they're most likely path through a title,
as unlikely as all those paths appear to me, is to rely on the
guys they've already signed to really good deals and just hope it works. That's
that that seems like the only way to do it. I'm totally with you
there, And so I'm I forgot that we had had a lengthy podcast about
this, so I won't spend any more time on it, but I'm in
full agreement with you, and the nets are just a fascinating situation to look
at. I think if Durant and Irving, or if Durant was going to
be the player he was in ok Se England State, you have no problem
with the direction the franchise is ended in and the power that they've given to
these players who have you know, frankly over their career, particularly Durant has
really just earned the benefit of the doubt there. But just they've everything from
what the nets were that attracted Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to them, or
at least that's what they said, to what they are now. They're just
they're traveling this just rickety slope and it's it's going to be fascinating to see
how it plays out. And I just don't think it's going to end.
I won't say we'll end up poorly, but I definitely don't think if they
consolidate this roster that it it ends it culminates with them being a legitimate title
contender. It might just be one of those like cutesy like oh yeah,
like yeah, we could envision a path if all these people get injured to
them making it to the championship round. I mean, honestly, it's sort
of this is an unfair comparison, but it's it sort of feels like when
I guess it's a little different, but when Brooklyn, you know, oh
we got Kevin Garnett, we got Paul Pierce. Now we got you know,
different circumstances. But it's like, look, there were indications that this
was not going to go great when they signed Irving and Durant, because Durant
coming off the injury, Irving basically leaving his second team in a row on
bad terms, Like, there were definitely signs that this wasn't The names are
one thing, right, you see Durant, you see Irving. You think
of their careers, and it's like, we're in business, right, But
really, even if you strip away all the other things we just talked about,
you know, I don't I don't think it was ever realistic to think
there was a title ceiling just because we got these two guys considering sort of
where they were in their careers when the Nets got them. That's I get
the spirit of it. But I think what really helps the situation is Kevin
Durant and Kaby Irving are still younger than Piercing Garnett, where even though the
Durant injury is obviously unprecedented for the caliber of player that he is, the
other thing is that they have yet to at least stripped down their future because
of it, So they didn't get up all those future assets to get them
totally different for that reason. Yeah and yeah, but more and more of
the idea of like, look at these names we got were ready to go,
because I remember when all those guys came together, it was like,
man, the Nets are as good as anybody in the East. It's just
you know, that was a poor comparison. But think about where the Nets
were last summer. They knew Kevin Durant weren't wasn't going to play, but
you landed Kyrie Irving, you had Kevin Durant, I mean, you had
DeAndre Jordan. But there were good vibes with carousel Vert because of how well
he played in the playoffs and even before his injury during the regular season last
year. And just look at the roster now where you had a sign Jamaal
Crawford just the field, an actual rotation in the bubble. Yeah, they
well, somebody was somebody tweeted it might have been. Christian Winfield tweeted,
Uh, like the Nets had like six or seven former Nicks too, which
were a joke, but like it was kind of nuts that that really was,
like, Oh, there's a little bit of overlap here. That's not
a good thing. I'm insured to see what they do with Joe Harrison free
agency too, because I feel like he's still one of the players that even
in a cap star of market, could end up getting more than the mL
E because he fits offensively anywhere, and it seems like he's the player that
a NETS team wouldn't but that maybe Kyrie Irving wouldn't value. And I'm only
saying that because Kyrie Irving sounded like he wanted to trade half the roster during
the middle of the season, right. Well, that's the other thing,
is I mean, if sort of wherever Harris winds up, I think,
and if it's Brooklyn, he'll be out of that class of guys that are
sort of underpaid, I think, because I agree, like there's nowhere that
he doesn't fit because shooting travels, elite elite elite shooting travels, So if
he makes I don't know, I mean, if he makes the MLI is
the absolute minimum for him, I think, And if the Nets, if
you get him for the non taxpayers MLI, whether you're the NETS or another
team, I don't maybe I'll fall short of saying that's an absolute steal,
but that's good value. That's that's a steal, I think, just because
what he does for everybody else that's on the floor with him. But yeah,
like if the NETS have to contend with some other team that's you know,
one of the few with cap space. It's like we're thinking fifteen sixteen
a year for Joe Harris and then Nets have to beat that. Then suddenly
he's sort are properly paid, which is not what they need. Well,
do you have any other hard truths? I think my last hard truth is
I don't have any more hard truths for you. That's sad. But our
listeners might be all six of you might be happy that this is over because
we've gone for almost a buck twenty nice, nice long podcasts to take you
in to the weekend. Though, Grant, thank you as always for coming
on and spending so much time speaking with me. If you're not following Grant
on Twitter at gt underscore U spelled exactly as it sounds, and I just
want to remind you doing this at the end of the podcast. Now,
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will be right there. But Grant, thank you so much for coming on.
I really enjoyed this discussion. My pleasure. Thanks