I'm frustrated because I'm Trump like everybody else. You see where this is going.
You know the Fed can't keep doing this forever. How the Fed themselves
are pricing in four rate cuts next year, but it's just postponing of that
that is inflating the dollar index and depressing the metals, and that's what's so
depressing for all of us. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are watching listening to
the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carry Lutts. Hey, We're
in mid September now, if you can believe it, price of gold well
it's been going down, price of Starbucks, Big Max, and everything else
around you has been going up. We want to find out from our good
friend Greg Hemkey, what is the deal here and when we can expect to
see some movement. We are Craig in the vaulted third quarter where gold is
seasonally goes up eighty percent of the time, Is this one of those twenty
percent of the time that it doesn't go up? Yeah? I carry yeah,
I tell you. As you're talking about that, I'm thinking like of
dog years, you know, like every human year is seven dog years,
or you know, whatever the hell it is. And H twenty twenty three
has has extracted about three years of toll on me. I think maybe another
one would be remembering the Princess for Bride, when Wesley's laid out on that
rack and the six fingered man comes in and says, I'm sucking life out
of you. That's what this That's what this year feels like. It's it's
extraordinarily frustrating just for me personally, because you know, I run my annual
forecast every January and I it's like the conditions that I've been waiting for just
keep getting pushed back, and it's driving me crazy. I thought it,
really I expected, and you recall this from our previous discussions this year.
I thought this year'd be a lot just kind of flat for the first six
months and not really go anywhere. And I have gold was up. I
don't know a hundred bucks maybe the first half of the year nineteen eighty five,
Yeah, I mean had a pretty good first half and silver too.
And then I thought, you know, as like previous years of FED pivots
and you know, turning back toward rate cuts, it's when it becomes really
obvious that that's the direction they're going that that's when the metals have taken off.
And I thought, by well, surely by the second half of the
year that will become obvious because they've hiked right so quickly, you know,
the economy would be slowing, and instead, I mean we've spent the last
three or four months with you know, all of these manufactured headlines that make
it appear that everything's great, Like the jobs report, you know where they
go in they tell you one number on the first Friday the month, and
then they come back on the first Friday the next month it revised that previous
one down and then maybe revise it again the next month to the point where
nobody nobody cares. I mean back in June, the July what came out
in July was a June report, and they said it was two hundred and
seven thousand versts and expectation of two ur and thirty and l was disappointing,
but I mean not that bad. By the time they gave us the final
revision a week ago, two weeks ago, it's actually a hundred and five.
They'd come out with one hundred and five on that day, you know,
the first Friday in July. God knows what would happened, but nobody
cares. You know, the machines do their thing that oh radar expectations are
going up and the dollar goes on and it's just maddening. So, like
I said, I'm frustrated because I'm trumble like everybody else. You see where
this is going. You know, the FED can't keep doing this forever.
Hell, the Fed themselves are pricing in four rate cuts next year. But
it's just post boning of that that is inflating the dollar in decks and depressing
the metals. And that's what's so depressing for all of us. Hey,
so let me throw us some numbers by you here. So in twenty twenty
two, the cost of a Thanksgiving feast for ten was sixty four oh five.
Now, obviously it's not a high end feast like the Hemkey household of
the Bux household that but let's just call it an average. And what's good
there is your basket is fixed. It's like the same turkey, the same
cranberry sauce that I don't eat, and the same stuffing that I tried not
to eat, just loaded with carbs. But it was up twenty percent from
twenty twenty one. It was fifty three thirty one and then it went up
to sixty four o five. That's twenty percent. However, if you look
at this year's July fourth barbecue, it was down three percent according to I
don't know where they were shopping, mind you, they weren't in Florida,
but it was down three percent from sixty nine sixty eight last year to sixty
seven seventy three. So maybe the FED has won the battle and they can
declare victory like Russia in the Ukraine, pick up and go home and start
doing what they do best, which is printing more money. But it really
is a tale of two money supplies. Right on the one hand, interest
rates going up deflationary. On the other hand, they keep pumping money into
a what is obviously a failing banking system. Yeah, and they will declare
victory at some point you know, they'll say, you know that we are
going to how positive real rates are, you know, and we've gotten fed
funds well above the inflation rate, and you know they'll come up with all
these reasons to print and and monetize and all this because I'll have to,
you know, given the debt situation. In the meantime, though, you
make an extra point because this always gets lost in the spin and the mope,
the management of perceptions of the daily headlines. You know, let use
that July fourth basket as an example. Carry it's down three percent from twenty
twenty two, but how much did it go up from twenty one to twenty
two? You know, And that's when you know the political economists, you
know, and the people that were an axe to grind, you know,
to do this spin. They'll come out and say, oh, look the
rate of change that was nine per cents down to three. Oh look it
is great, but it's not those price increases from the last two or three
years. You're not going back to where you were in twenty twenty and now
adding three percent, it's just three percent on top of all that damage that
was done. And everybody forgets about that, and so people the individual just
keeps getting stretched more and more thin. And they're give you one more thing
about the jobs report, they count part time jobs as being part of this
whole sum of new jobs. Well, if you look back, even through
the Bureau of Labor Statistics owned data, this year, we've lost hundreds of
thousands of I think even a million full time jobs and added you know,
a couple of million part time jobs. Well that's got good. You've got
people who are you know, maybe you were making you know, what's say
average you know, white collars seventy thousand dollars a year, and you got
benefits, you got health insurance, you got a four one K right,
and you get fired, you get laid off, you get downsized, you
know whatever. You still got a mortgage to make, you know, you
still got a family, you got to feed all this kind of stuff.
And so what do you do. You take three gain jobs. You know,
if you can't get rehired, you're gonna go, you know, work
at Costco stock and shelves, you know, and you might drive for Uber
during the day and whatever. So you replace one really good job with three
not so great jobs out of desperation. That's not good. For anyone.
However, Hey, the media says, look at that, that's a net
two jobs, we're told while the Bureau of Labor statistics and so it's really
there's nothing good or positive about any of this. And you know what,
I don't mean to champion that is, oh so therefore you got to own
gold. But what you have to do is you have to then look at
the eventuality of how this all plays out, you know, and the trillions
and trillions of debt and the trillions and trillions now of debt service costs,
where's that cash going to come from? And you can kind of see how
this plays out even in the current structure of how the metals are priced.
Hey, and all those tech jobs, man, they were getting six figures
all of them, and there's like one hundred or two hundred thousand less of
them. So now they're part of the gig economy doing uber and you just
see what's happening in China is exactly what's going to happen and happening here in
the US. All of these people who were middle class, upper middle class,
now they work for food delivery companies, barely making ends meet. You
know. Interesting, we're talking pre call and discussed how premiums on gold are
way up in Asia compared to visa v. Europe in the United States.
You know, China's currency is pretty much in the Their economy is in full
blown collapse mode now, and that's got to have an effect on everything.
Oh, it certainly does and will really be a big story as we know
turn into the fourth court of the year. Japan too. I mean the
dollar yen is getting close to one fifty, and people to understand when you
see that quoted and it going up from one forty one forty five to one
fifty, that means the end is getting weaker. Looks at the dollars so
pee people when they say, oh, I don't see it looks like it's
gone up. No, that means it getting weaker. And last fall it
got to one fifty and the Bank of Japan had to intervene and drive it
back down. That actually is part of that turned the dollar indecks. That's
all part of what got the metals off the map last fall when gold was
down at sixteen fifty and silver was down nineteen twenty. So those two countries
and their currencies are gonna be a big story here in the back, you
know, one hundred days of this year. But this China thing is interesting
in the premium. You know, they set up a Shanghai exchange what ten
years ago and ultimately you know it's it's it's all U one and it's convertible
into essentially buy an extra step into crude oil. That's sort of totally try
to get these words out of my mouth. Physical market. You can't take
delivery out of China, and they make delivery into China. Well, you
know, they're not keen to export any of their precious metal, and no
one knows how much they officially owned. I mean, that's all guests work
too. Remember the deal, it was last month and there was this build
up for about sixty days about the Bricks conference carry you know, and oh
that Bricks are going to unveil this new currency and all that kind of stuff,
and maybe someday they will, I wasn't Eventually they will have some kind
of trade settlement system outside of the dollar, because they've all learned, you
know that within the US dominated you know, current structure. You get sideways
with the US, we'll just kick you out. And they're like, oh
yeah, we're going to be getting sideways with the US. We can't help
but get sideways with the US. We better have an alternative. So that's
that's the direction that's going. But the interesting thing about what's going on China
now is this this disparity. This premium between the price that is being discovered
and used to trade metal for our redman b you won in Shanghai and the
other physical markets in China is about currently six percent higher than it is for
New York London, and that's the highest that it's ever been. There was
initially in a gap when it first scarred going ten years ago, and it's
growing by that. Hey, Carrie, The difference in silver is ten percent.
That's huge. Day as we record, the Shanghai silver price is about
twenty five fifty an ounce. And what's what is it on comex as we
recorded back twenty two sixty twenty two seventy something like that. So you think,
okay, well, what's going on here? And this is where you
have to one is this related? Is this another step in this bricks thing?
I don't know, maybe what could be what could be accomplished by allowing
that that spread to widen, you know, and most people here know,
you know there's arbit the idea of behind arbitrash. You know, if you've
got a price discovered here and a price discovered there and they're different, well
then you sell here and buy there, or you buy here and sell there
and you meet in the middle. Right. So when you hear there's a
let's use a silver for example, that you can buy silver on the Comax,
buy silver on the Comax at twenty two seventy five, but you can
sell it in Shanghai at twenty five seventy five, why isn't that being art?
Well, the problem is you're selling it in Shanghai. You're making a
commitment to physically deliver silver that's some date in the future in Shanghai. Well,
there's logistics involved in that, right. And then additionally, why does
why we try to want that to happen? Well, that's sure would seem
away to attract as much of the Western physical silver supply above ground as possible.
You make it feasible logistically, and you say, oh, yeah,
sure, we'll buy as much as you want to sell us at twenty five
seventy five, bring it on over here. Yeah, And all of a
sudden, your Western supplies of a critical infrastructure battery metal are suddenly getting hoovered
up. Same you can again, you could say the same thing for gold,
maybe in preparation for stockpiling gold for wherever they want to take it in
the years. It comes very interesting development, something everybody should keep an eye
on. Yeah, hey, well, you know, uh, I think
they're going to have to do something. I think the bricks response here has
more to do with their collapsing currencies than fear of the being excluded from the
US dollar. All those countries, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, have
had awful economic growth right right years now since the Great Recession, right right,
And so we export our inflation to them. You know, it's like
the old John Connolly thing. You know, it's our currency, but it's
your problem. So all the developing nations have all their debt and it's dollar
denominated, and so as a dollar strengthens because of what you know, the
rate hikes and everything else, all of those emerging market currencies are weakening and
forcing them to buy even more dollars to certain's all of their dollar based debt,
and then that makes the situation even worse. And all of that could
have dramatic implications for the global markets in the back hundred days of this year
too, And so this is it's a as much as it's aggravating and seemingly
boring. And it's another year where you know, it's Gold's average a return
for the last ten years is about nine and a half ten percent. So
run pays to do that again. And it seems like, you know,
it's putting me to sleep, and it's frustrating. There's a lot going on
that's all part of a fundamental story, and you know it just sets us
up for continuing interesting years next year and beyond. Hey, so what about
what's happening in Argentina they have a perpetual currency collapse? Is that what we
have to look forward to? Well, you know, Kerry, you know,
I remember from when when we first met ten years ago, back then,
you know, my my site, when it was just getting started,
we were writing about and we still write about the end of the great King
Gene experiment, this debt based monetary system which works fine for a while,
but then you know, just the exponential math of it at the end is
what does you in You can't print it fast enough and grow fast enough in
your economy to keep the plate spinning. The US is entering into that phase
now, it seems finally, but you got other places, like you know,
Argentina is devaluing their currency at the rate of ten percent per month.
How do you how do you even have a functioning economy in that you know
where you're you're demanding. I mean a thing feeds on itself. Right,
if you're selling goods in Argentina and the manufacturing things or selling cars or whatever
in the Argentinian currency, I can't remember what it's called. And you're transacting
in that knowing that ten percent, you know just a month from now that
your money's gonna get that what you got for that, it's going to do
value by ten percent. Then you're going to ask for a ten percent even
more. Now, right begins to go crazy. I will watch the video
from Tucker Carlson last night on his Twitter account on his Twitter feed, and
the term that came to me was bymar Argentina because very much of bymar Germany
type thing that's going on there, and I like it's an it's it would
be extreme to say that's where we are now in the US because we're not.
But you know, if we get to fifty trillion dollars in national debt,
you know, by the end of this decade, and on fifty trillion
dollars you're paying five percent interest on average, just say five. That's new
and a half trillion dollars a year needed just a service the debt and so
that, you know, the currency just devalues so quickly and that again.
So yeah, gold boring, frustrating, driving me crazy, and the bank's
doing this, and the short squeezes of that and everything else. The bean
time. Man, I just there's no nothing better that I can be doing
than just continuing to add physical gold and silver to my stack and just letting
this all play out. As you were saying that, a song came to
mind from the hit play. It was a Broadway Tony Award winning play,
Well don't Cry for Me Argentina, and then sing it. I'm not going
to sing it, but it's We'll put a link into the YouTube video.
Let me see if I can find it here. Tucker Carlson thing, Yeah,
look, get up on it. You can find it. Carry on
this and anybody can go just go to on his on his Twitter, pay
his ex page, yeah, but so he comes up with a video what
once every couple of days or so. Yeah, sure, and we'll put
up a link to it, and we'll put up a link to the song
Don't Cry for New York, you know, donn Award. I found it.
Hold it here quick, let's see if it comes up. I am
Vita Ferguson. Yeah. Well and again, and this has been, this
has been. This is always the endgame, right, and you can go
all the way back. I'm trying to remember the guy's name, like Denysius
of Syracuse or whatever the dude's name was, who was the Greek tyrant in
like the fourth century BC, who was, as at least in the historical
record, the first cat to disfigure out that if I call in all the
existing money and then issue just twice as much to everybody. After we do
that, then all of a sudden, there's all this extra money that we
can then pay our debts for all our wars and all this kind of stuff.
And man, this has been going on for twenty four twenty five centuries
ever since. Oh yeah, let's not forget the Napoleon sold off Louisiana to
pay for the wars, right, and so you know, we'll see what
Russia is going to be selling off. You know, it's so interesting the
Ukraine Russian War because China now is making its move on Russian real estate.
And you can see, like Siberia they've wanted to colonize it for years,
but they were afraid of war with Russia. I think chunks of Siberia are
going to get fried off. Yeah, you know, to keep the war
going. They took over part of an island that was disputed Russian island recently,
so you know everybody's the knives are out. They want to of a
Prussia and sell it off to the highest bidders or the best connected bidders.
Right, And you make me think of there's a stock I own, so
like CNBC, the speaker owns this equity, so he's pumping it. But
Eric Sprott told me about it called Erdine Resources in Mongolia. Yeah, I
know that's a rhodium producer. If I'm at and they make no, it's
it's gold. Now I'm some as Eric would say, he's got some pretty
exciting products. But it's his little company in Fringing Mongolia. But if you
think that, and so I own some because if you think that is kind
of an eventuality over there, because who knows, you know, the Chinese,
that's what you mentioned. Alluded to this earlier with the yuan. They've
got a lot of printing that they have to do as well. Yeah,
that makes that puts us to shame with you know, their deflationary forces.
And you know, whether it was what's a new one country garden or whatever
is the r he had ever grande a yeah, real estate company and China
as well as the banks. Every single bank in China is insolvent now.
Yeah, so the currency controls in place, so you can't take out more
than x amount per day withdrawals there you go, so a carrie in the
end of the day. It gets back to why I started this sight in
the first place. We talked about medals and it's you know, it's a
there's never a shortage of stuff to talk about there. But like I said,
going back to fourth century BC, this is how these things play out,
and the the world has been untethered now for fifty two years, unhinged,
I would say, print, unhinged, printed, Fiat backed by nothing,
right, military power, I guess you could say really nothing and in
the end, you end up overprinting because that's the only way that can be
sustained for a certain amount of time. And then you lose complete confidence in
the currency. And the only way you can regain confidence is to back it
with something. And that's what the bricks are preparing. The hell that's probably
you know, a country like Argentina. I don't think they have any gold
reserves, but that's a direction that they have to go to. You've got
to re establish confidence in your in your currency, and so when all this
plays out, that's the direction of the world ships. And that's why me
and almost I would imagine everybody at my side, that's why we all just
keep adding to our stacks in preparation for that inevitability. Yeah. Well,
the one thing you know is that backing the currencies again with something gold,
whatever it might be, whatever, that is the endgame, because at means
giving up political power, right, the power to go right checks to your
friends and prosecute and persecute your enemies rights. If you don't have the money
to do it, you can't do it. Right. Did you see the
thing yesterday about Folkhanas, Right, Yeah, she's all under must Yeah,
and now she's got it. What does she work? Two hundred million dollars
or something after Bishocahantas is worth two hundred mill I saw it yesterday. Yeah,
that's pretty a Native American from Oklahoma, right. You know, you
would think she'd, you know, she'd donate some to the res, you
know, and build some community centers and stuff like that. I would think
she would. You know, she's in favor of donating everybody else's money voluntarily,
she should be donating some of her own. Right then the goal of
politicians probably not any area to do it. But but your point is right.
I mean, as long as they can buy power through graft and corruption,
they're going to keep doing it. But in the end, again,
that pendulum swings all the way over here as far I can go. Had
a child a blade on it, and it's got a blade, it's got
a blade on the bottom, and it's not going to spare anybody. So
hey, so you gotta go over to TF Metals report. Craig is running
a special. The promo code you won't believe what it is. I didn't
golden and hey, you'll get your first month subscription for a little bit less
than the price of the current average price of the big Mac. We're talking
just a sandwich, not the happy meal, not the value meal, but
just the price of a big Mac. You'll be saving. So you know,
hey, by the way, Craig, I know you caught this ad
on zero Hedge because you're a prolific enthusiastic reader as am I. But the
new gold rush in the United States is fat. Did you catch that?
No. Basically, big pharma's pursuit of anti obesity drugs is the new gold
rush. So we have the ultimate paired trade. So Eli, Lily has
this drug called Munjaro, which is more effective than bariatric surgery, or at
least as effective. Yeah, well to twenty thousand per year. And their
market cap, well, the share of Lily back in twenty twenty was going
for a hundred bucks. It's now at six hundred dollars. The number two
drug is put up by It's not Novartist, it's Nova something. And their
market cap has gone over four hundred billion. So you know, the obesity
epidemic is making trillionaires. We're going to see Lily will be the first trillion
dollar big farm a company. Geez. So the paired trade is by Lily
Sell McDonald. Hey, I like it. I like it. I like
it. Well, you're right, that's that's the shrewd businessman that I am.
I wrote it. I hadn't done this for months, and so I
thought, well, maybe because you know, this is going to get interesting.
I mean the next few months. I mean, the recession is inevitable.
This hard you know, soft landing, buzz the field crap. I
hear it every time. I've been hearing it for thirty five years since i've
been you know, got out of college and became a stockbroker. You know,
right at the end, right before the recession, everybody starts talking about
soft land. Well, I can't believe we're hanging in there because of the
lagging effects. You gotta lead it all play out, brother, Kerry.
We didn't even talk about commercial banking. You know, in the scene,
an officer surveys about how tight credit's gonna get and it's gonna put more more
people out of work. But anyway, more of the story is, this
is gonna get interesting. So I thought, wow, for fun, if
you want to join my site, you sign up, you go to you
buy a monthly subscription, You put in a coupon code of Gold, that's
creative Gold, and it will cost you five dollars for your first month.
That's where you said it's less than a big Mac. And now if you
stick around, it's going to cost you the whole value meal. It's gonna
cost you fifteen until you handsome all right, big bucks, right, I
know, And you can tell I'm looking at this extravagant studio I'm sitting in
and the extravagant productions I put out. This is the lights on. Yeah,
the lights on. Remember, if there's a soft landing, it's because
it's landing on the backs of the middle class, right right, that's the
ending for the wealthy, right for the rich getting richer. So anyway,
if you want to, I think people can learn a lot, not necessarily
even for me, but from the other people on my side. So if
you want to learn something, spend five blocks five blocks and side up,
use that code gold, and then if you don't like it, quit,
But I don't think you will. Good deal. High retention rate damn near
percent. Very few people once they sign up actually cancel. He got a
question for Craig myself. Shoot me an email kl at Carlets dot com right
you YouTube comments down below, Craig, we'll talk to you again. Sin.
I want to talk to you in a few weeks about the banking crisis
as the effects become more obvious. We didn't even touch upon the fact that
the emergency lending facility discount window every speek goes higher and hired records. But
hey, there's nothing wrong man, soft landing. Everything's fine, right,
nothing can go wrong. Good, let's talk again, because that's a whole
that's a whole podcast right there. Definitely all right, we'll catch you in
a few weeks. You'd be well. Thanks for coming on. You got
it, brother, Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to financial service Vivalnetwork
dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever