WEBVTT

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Sab one twenty one vote in the
House and then in the Senate. It's

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now up to Biden. We'll see
what he does there. Trump all of

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a sudden going full full pro crypto. Here a lot of polling suggesting that

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this is going to matter, particularly
in races where it's close, it could

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actually swing things. So it looks
like that might have been the calculus from

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the DEM Party. This content is
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will be in a description. Welcome

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to the Thinking Crypto Podcast. I'm
your host, Tony Edward and with me

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today's James Seifert, who's an ETF
research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. James,

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great to have you back on what's
going on, Tony. Nice to see

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you. Tony and I actually met
for the first time last week in person

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down at DC at an event,
so that was nice. But here the

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virtual Yeah, the funny thing is
we live five minutes apart from each other,

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but that's where we meet. Yeah, yeah, we have to go

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all the way to DC to meet. Well, James, things are escalating

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with the etherorem SPOTTYTF filings and the
issue in the SEC. I guess let's

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start with why do you think all
of a sudden, the SEC is starting

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engaging with these folks who are applying. Yeah. I mean there's two trains

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of thought, right. The one
is like this was the plan of the

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get go, which seems to be
kind of the spin coming out from some

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people at the agency. I guess
I don't buy that. I mean,

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this created a whole lot of volatility
and circus, if you will, around

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the fact that they were engaging on
this my view, and you kind of

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see it in the way that like
even the statement that the White House put

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out today on the FIT twenty one
Act, basically saying like we look forward

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to working with Congress on rules and
like all those different things, it was

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way more productive. I mean,
it's still not like they're pro the space,

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but it seems way less anti.
So my overall view is just that

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it was kind of like a flip. Political wins flipped here and they decided,

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like, you know this, it's
not worth fighting anymore. This all

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seems to have changed rather quickly in
my view. Again, we don't have

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any definitive confirmation there, but it
seems like the SAB one twenty one vote

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in the House and then in the
Senate, it's now up to Biden.

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We'll see what he does there.
Trump all of a sudden going full full

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pro crypto. Here a lot of
polling suggesting that this is going to matter,

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particularly in races where it's close,
it could actually swing things. So

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it looks like that might have been
the calculus from the dem Party. And

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I've talked to many people, and
the vast majority of people I've spoken to

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that are in the know, whether
it be in DC or in ETF circles,

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are actually involved in what's going on
here trying to get these ets launched.

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They're pretty much all in agreement with
what I was just saying there,

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and we're getting more and more signs
of that potentially being the case. Yeah.

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Absolutely, And one of the things
that we were seeing months ago was

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that the SEC was not engaging with
the issuers. They were going after consensus

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and the theorem foundation. So that
set the tone like this looks like it's

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going to be arduous, like a
road ahead for these issuers. So there

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was no indication the thing that they
would do this. But to your point,

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as the political wins started changing,
they did a one to eighty.

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So I don't think that's coincidence.
I think they, like you said,

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all these factors are influencing them.
Yeah, let's be clear here, it's

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not a done deal yet. It's
not a one eighty yet. We could

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get in order sometime today. It's
no after market clothes. I think tomorrow

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is more likely, but I will
find out soon enough. Right that said,

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I'm with you. That points to
another reason why I don't think this

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was like planned like the way that
they were going after cracking and coinbase and

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setting wells noticed to Robinhood. I
mean, maybe they would have done that

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anyway, but like particularly the consensus
stuff like that certainly indicates that they were

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leaning towards or looking for ways to
go after these etherorum as potentially being a

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security. And if they did that, you can't an ETF. So the

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one thing that does do if they
do approve the ETF, that means that

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eth itself as an asset, as
a token, whatever you want to call

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it, is a commodity. Because
the way that these ETFs are all filed

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right now is under the Commodities Exchange
Act, not a Commodity Exchange assets.

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They're they're register's commodities funds. So
that means that that's pretty much a done

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deal. I have like pet theories
on what they'll still do, claiming like

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steak eath might be a security that's
not done and dusted, but I think

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for the most part, if they
approve these, it's pretty much a done

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deal that Eath itself the asset,
it won't be viewed as security by the

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SEC. That's my current view.
So, like all that stuff leading up

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in the last few months of them
possibly going down that route just points to

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me to the fact that like,
yeah, there's no way they were just

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like couldn't go down that route,
and they always plan to approve. Yeah,

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And to your point, I saw
the note of the staking being scratched

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off the list here, like that's
not happening. And do you think though,

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maybe later on they may allow the
staking and for future versions of the

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ETFs. It's a good question.
I mean one I think I said it

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on here, like we were pretty
uh pessimistic that these things were going to

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be approved, even just last week. But I was always like extremely pessimistic,

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like even way more pessimistic that staking
would ever be allowed here. The

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SEC obviously has a huge history of
having problems with those types of features,

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whether it be like staking as a
service or service or staking itself, so

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I never expected that to be in
there. Could it be in the future,

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maybe, I'm not really sure.
Probably not anytime soon. Maybe with

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the new admin and new SEC admin, depending what happens with the election in

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November, that could change. But
for the most part, I don't think

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it's going to happen anytime soon.
If these are approved, and even still

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like you can look at this.
It's similar to like, I don't think

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in kind transaction are going to happen
anytime soon. Right. We talked a

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lot about this in the past about
cash verse in kind, these things are

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going to be cash creat only everyone
knew that already, and for the most

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part, everyone knew these things were
not going to be able to stake,

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which makes them less desirable. I
guess we think that'll hinder the demand and

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flows from ND investors for these compared
to bitcoin itself. Sure. Now,

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one of the things I saw you
tweeted about was the two phases to this,

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the nineteen B dash fars and then
the s ones. Have all the

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potential issuers already updated their nineteen B
dashboars. If I'm saying that right,

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yeah, I just we just called
nineteen be four's but you're that's the correct

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how you spill it out, because
they would be S DASH one too.

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Just nineteen be four and S one's
one is basically a rule change documents.

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That's what those are, the deadlines
that everyone used to hearing. That's the

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nineteen before documents. The s ones
are like the offering documents or prospectus.

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If you pay attention to these words. It's like bically disclosed all the risks,

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how the fund's going to operate,
all the people involved. It's way

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more in depth. Whereas the ninety
be four it's just like, we need

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to change this rule. These are
the rules we are going to abide by

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if you allow us to list these. In this case, it's in Etherorum

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based etf you need a special rule
change to allow you to do this.

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They needed this for the Bitcoin ETFs
as well. The difference with the Bitcoin

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ETFs is they did these these like
two parallel processes at the same time with

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Bitcoin, which was also somewhat uni
to come. Many times they'll do the

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ninety before and then go through the
S one process or they're not always on

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top of each other, but they
wanted to do them on top of each

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other and approve everything, so they
go listing at the same time, which

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is what we saw with Bitcoin.
Here, we haven't seen much of anything

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any updates. There's news reports coming
out that the SEC is having conversations with

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these issuers on those S one documents, but the first ones that need to

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come out are those nineteen be fours. That's Manx deadline is tomorrow, so

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there needs to be in order tomorrow, and it sounds like they're going to

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get you the same order on everyone. So I think by my account,

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there's four different nineteen B fours that
are in We'll see if there's any more.

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I I haven't seen hash decks is
yet, and that's not to say

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that they're that it won't be there. Wait. I just actually got an

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update. Now that's bit Wise an
ARC and yeah, these are just notices

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of filing. Sorry, but yeah, so we we have five. So

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there's there's you have ARC, bit
Wise, Investco, Galaxy, Van k

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Uh. I don't need to list
all of them, but black Rock and

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and actually gray Scale has two.
They've they filed these nineteen B fours for

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both their regular conversion of EV into
an ETF and for their mini trust,

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which is unique. So I initially
saw them filing stuff for their mini trust

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on Monday or no yesterday, and
I was like, oh, I assume

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the'se got This isn't going to be
able to go out in the first wave,

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but it looks like it might be
based on how how many filings are

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going through. They filed their initial
filing yesterday and there's a red amendment posted

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for them today, So that was
intriguing. Wow, So James, I

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saw you and Eric tweeted out that
you guys are at seventy five percent chance

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of approval. Now are you thinking
partial approval? Like could they approve certain

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parts? And that's news? And
then two weeks later approved another part of

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it. What do you mean by
part? You mean like the different issuers.

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So let's say and correct me if
I'm wrong here, because I'm kind

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of ignorant in the process. But
let's say there's news came out that they

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approved there the nineteen oh, that
nineteen before and this one. Yeah,

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so, like we said, the
Bitcoin etf that went at the same time

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for here, that's not going to
happen. There's almost no way that's going

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to happen. So interactions have just
started. So the nineteen before's are handled

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by the Division of Training Markets.
The s ones are handled by a separate

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division called the Divisional Corporate Finance.
Those conversations, from what I can tell,

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and mostly honestly, it's not even
my own talking with with people that's

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seeing other reports have recently started.
That process has can take it. Like

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I've seen instances of that process like
getting through the s ones, all the

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disclosures, risks, you name it. I've seen it take five months,

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So I don't think that's going to
happen here. I have a feeling that

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everything's aligned, particularly if this was
a political shift, there's a lot of

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pressure from above to get this done. That said, there's no way it's

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happening like in the next day or
two like that's going to take on.

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Those documents are very long. There's
a lot of things you need to go

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through, and I just don't know. It kind of depends how much time

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and effort and energy the SEC and
really wants to push these things through.

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But the theoretically, if you get
the nineteen before, this isn't like guaranteed,

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but in historically the norm is the
nineteen before is approved. It's only

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a matter of when, not if. Like you just need to work your

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way through all these things with the
SEC and then the S one will get

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approved or go effective is what the
term is, and then then that we'll

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list. So my thinking is maybe
a couple of weeks it'll happen, but

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it could be much longer, could
be sooner, I guess if they really

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push this thing. But that's that's
a long, arduous process. These are

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many like hundreds of pages of texts
that they need to kind of go through

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before these things are allowed to go
live. And there's at least nine different

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ets here trying to do this.
Wow, So I guess the good news

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is there, the gears are in
motion here, We've got momentum. It's

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just not going to happen tomorrow.
But you know, maybe we can hear

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some partial approvals, but the actual
full on approval is weeks away, and

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things, yeah, the full on
listing, so they'll be approved. It's

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just like getting to the point where
they're actually listing and trading on an exchange.

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I have no I really I can
guess like I said, I would

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probably put the Oprah under it two
weeks. Then that's by emphasizing the fact

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the SEC might really like put this
into overdrive and work really hard to get

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this done, but there's no guaranteed
that it will happen, like I said,

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I've seen Like for the Bitcoin ets, the conversation started in October,

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and I'm sure you and your listeners
remember there were updates happening in throughout December

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and like literally like multiple the week
leading up to the launch, and those

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were over this S one. There
was constant iteration and back and forth.

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And so even if you compress it
down like they were working basically every day,

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there's people pulling all nighters like for
the for ten days in January.

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Like it's it's not something that can
happen immediately. The flip side of that

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argument is they already have etherory in
futures ETFs and we have spot bitcoin.

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There's probably a lot of analogous situations
that you can put into these documents.

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There's not going to be as many
comments as were needed for the first physical

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Digital Acid ETF, but there's definitely
a lot of uniqueness to these filings that

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will need to be ironed out now
before I let you go. The other

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thing is the London Bitcoin ETPs went
live. I know we're still waiting on

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information on that, but any thoughts
so you have to share there. Yeah,

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they're gonna go. They're gonna go
live I think on the twenty eighth

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or something or but they're basically greenlit
and it will be bitcoin end to theerem

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I think. But the caveat here
is one they'll be physically backed, which

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of course they better be right or
no one's going to want. But there's

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still a ban on retail, so
like retail investors will not be the access.

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That's only professional investors, institution's advisor. I think advisors. I'm not

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really one hundred percent familiar, but
there's going to be a restriction on who

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and Kenning cannot use those products.
But no matter how you slice it,

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it's just another area. Like we
had the Hong Kong ETFs come live.

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They are not doing nothing. They're
doing well for their market, but it's

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not massive. It's just showing just
growth in different regions and different regulatory regimes

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around the world. And things are
going to happen in baby steps, like

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even with the ETFs, it's in
cash now. I think eventually we'll get

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to in kind. There's no staking
right now. I think ultimately, at

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some point maybe we get to staking, but I don't know how long that

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takes. Is that going to be
a year, multiple years? Who knows?

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Yeah. One final thing here,
we're seeing the inflows with the bitcoin

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US ETFs on the rise again after
the outflows you know, were pretty significant

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over the past couple of months.
Do you anticipate that trend to continue given

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that we've maybe found a bottom for
bitcoin. Yeah, who knows. I

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mean, I'm not a I'm not
a guy to talk about the price of

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these things. But I think a
lot of this demand is one there's a

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there was a wipeout, a flush
out during that week where there was a

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lot of flows coming out of those
ETFs. And also this week there's obviously

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what happened on Monday when we broke
the news that there was engagement happening.

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There was a huge renewed interest in
the space. And it wasn't just ethereum

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that saw prices rise, right,
it was Bitcoin also got head. So

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I think there's just renewed demand.
And also I talked about like what our

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theory is, right, the political
wind shifting. I think the thing here

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is like, yes, like the
first order effect here is we're going to

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get an etherorym ETF most likely again
not guaranteed we see it, but that's

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the most likely outcome, right,
But the more broader outcome is just like

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things are kind of shifting here to
the point where it looks like there's going

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to be some more constructive dialogue going
on. I don't think the Dems are

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going to flip to a pro crypto
stance here, but I think it might

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be less anti I guess, is
the way I would put it, and

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I think that has broader implications than
just the fact that we're likely to get

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an ethereum ETF because of the actions
of the SEC. James always great insights,

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my friend, and maybe I'll have
to have you back on pretty soon

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because let's see what happens tomorrow in
the coming weeks. But thank you so

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much. Yeah, thanks for having
me. Good chatting, Tony