1 00:00:15,359 --> 00:00:19,879 What is krack lacking, Fellow thermonuclear affors, I am a damn valley coming 2 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:24,640 at you with my certified fantabulous co host Grant, who's we're dropping ours like 3 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,719 the sixth podcast the week is definitely like the eighth hour of content we're dropping. 4 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:33,000 So we're you're welcome or we're sorry, depending on how you feel about 5 00:00:33,039 --> 00:00:35,560 that. Two more playoff series to roll through. Now that we have both 6 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:40,560 matchup set, we are going to begin with the Bucks Heat series and we're 7 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,119 talking about two one v eight matchups, So we'll like try and take this, 8 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:48,039 I promise really seriously, but it's just it's tough to carve out pathways 9 00:00:48,039 --> 00:00:51,560 to upsets for both of these matchups. But first, the question we all 10 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,920 care about, and I'll make a prediction. I think he's probably doing, 11 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,520 like on a scale one to ten, like a seven and a half. 12 00:00:57,759 --> 00:01:00,560 Grant, how are you doing? I'm like a fourteen? Dan today? 13 00:01:00,679 --> 00:01:06,239 Yeah, really good day today in the in the household. This will interest 14 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:07,920 no one but you because you and I were texting about this yesterday. That 15 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,079 tree that I was trying to take out of my backyard it's out, baby, 16 00:01:11,239 --> 00:01:15,959 So you know, feeling really good about. That's wanting to start an 17 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,239 alpha male podcast and it's gonna be all about lumberjacking to start, how he 18 00:01:19,239 --> 00:01:23,560 can get down trees and take out that. Are we sure it's called lumberjacking? 19 00:01:23,719 --> 00:01:26,079 That feels like shouldn't it shouldn't be called that if that's what it's called. 20 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:30,359 I am so not handy. I would call someone to change a light 21 00:01:30,359 --> 00:01:34,560 bulb. Probably if my wife wasn't so handy, That's exactly what I would 22 00:01:34,599 --> 00:01:37,480 do. I did build a treadmill with her a couple of weeks ago. 23 00:01:37,519 --> 00:01:40,719 Though that's pretty She was nervous to use it the first time because I was 24 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,200 so critical to putting it together that she was probably convinced that she was gonna 25 00:01:44,239 --> 00:01:48,640 die. So is it still working? Yeah, she's used it a bunch 26 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,200 of times and she's yet to die, so I got I thought that as 27 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:55,319 an absolute win. Yeah solid. Speaking of yet to die, we're gonna 28 00:01:55,319 --> 00:02:00,760 talk about some eight seeds today. They may not last long as you're treadmill. 29 00:02:00,879 --> 00:02:04,719 In some cases. I think the heat Bucks are just the heat bulls 30 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,920 game. We're not going to talk about that game, and maybe we'll get 31 00:02:06,959 --> 00:02:08,960 into something with like the teams who are out futures or whatever, but it 32 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:13,400 was like entered. It was close, but it wasn't entertaining. Like there 33 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,439 were moments, but it wasn't like super compelling. And that feels like the 34 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,759 Heat season and the nutshells they play in like a bunch of these stressful games. 35 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,319 Yea, and their half court offense has been really bad. They had 36 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,639 I do believe in their defense, but that really fell off a cliff to 37 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:32,120 close the season. And I know you have stronger feelings about not that you're 38 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,800 going to predict an upset, but you have stronger thoughts on this series than 39 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,120 I do. And so I have questions, But what are you what's your 40 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,879 biggest overarching thought heading into this? Is it who's Milwaukee gonna playing Round two? 41 00:02:42,039 --> 00:02:45,080 Or yeah? Right? Basically, I mean I think I've been a 42 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:52,000 little bit more hesitant to give up on the Heat than some I don't feel 43 00:02:52,039 --> 00:02:58,080 any more confident after this game, just because you know this before we get 44 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,439 into the matchup with the Bucks, which is just going to be kind talking 45 00:03:00,479 --> 00:03:04,159 about like really, and it'll be the case for the other matchup two in 46 00:03:04,199 --> 00:03:07,520 the West, like what series of things needs to happen for the eight seed 47 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,680 to have a chance, really and the first of those I think was on 48 00:03:10,719 --> 00:03:15,400 display against the Bulls in the final playing game in the Eastern Conference, which 49 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:20,080 was somebody from three that you don't anticipate running really hot needs to run really 50 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,240 hot, and that was Max Struce, who was seven or twelve from three. 51 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,439 So if you get either him or Gave Vincent, who was awful. 52 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,639 By the way, we've had a running thing all season of I only see 53 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,639 good Gave Vincent games. I've seen a lot of bad Gave Vincent games lately, 54 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:35,240 so it's really balanced out. But someone has to run hot from three, 55 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,479 because outside of Struce, the Heat were three of eighteen from deep, 56 00:03:38,639 --> 00:03:43,000 just keeping right in line with their twenty seventh or twenty eighth ranked and according 57 00:03:43,039 --> 00:03:47,000 Cleaning, the last three point percentage of this season, the offense is just 58 00:03:47,039 --> 00:03:52,479 an absolute slog. It's really tough to watch. It takes a ton of 59 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:54,639 effort to generate shots. There's not a lot of movement. All that I 60 00:03:54,639 --> 00:03:58,800 think is going to play right into Milwaukee's hands, and it's just whose defense 61 00:03:58,919 --> 00:04:03,879 is phenomenal and will just I think happily concede threes to the Heat, and 62 00:04:04,159 --> 00:04:09,120 I just so the overarching thought is not a shocker, but it's just how 63 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:13,479 do the Heat score enough points against a defense this good when they've been bad 64 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:17,600 overall against every defense offensively this season. So just a little background before I 65 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,319 kind of kick it to you. The Heat and Bucks did split their four 66 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:26,120 games this season, all of which came between you know, like January twelfth. 67 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,240 I think in February twenty fourth, they were very much condensed. Joanna's 68 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,600 only played one full game of those. He sat out too along with Chris 69 00:04:31,639 --> 00:04:36,040 Middleton, and played like six minutes in another. The one of the games 70 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:40,839 that he did play, he was dominant at thirty five points and like fourteen 71 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,959 boards on thirteen and nineteen shooting, and the Bucks lost that game. So 72 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,360 I guess if you're an optimist for the Heat, you might say, well, 73 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,120 they can weather the storm. I guess, so to speak, but 74 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:55,680 you know that that I so. But I think in most cases, I 75 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,600 don't know how you feel about this. Certainly here I'm not taking much away 76 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,240 from head the head matchups, particularly when Jannis played in one point two of 77 00:05:03,319 --> 00:05:09,600 the four games. Basically, if that so, I guess, yeah, 78 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,120 do you have anything? I have some other numbers to do. We can 79 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,439 get a little more granular. But that is the story, right, It's 80 00:05:15,639 --> 00:05:19,759 just how did the heat score and how do they score against the Bucks defense 81 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:24,319 that gives you nothing at the rim and gives you nothing from three, Like 82 00:05:24,399 --> 00:05:28,800 where where are these points going to come from? And look, it's especially 83 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,560 compelling because you mentioned their offense being a slog and they finished the regular season 84 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:38,040 twentieth and half court efficiency and there were points like in the season where that 85 00:05:38,079 --> 00:05:40,399 was lower, where it felt like they were hovering around the bottom five. 86 00:05:40,639 --> 00:05:43,199 And they're not a team that's gonna, despite what Jimmy Butler can do, 87 00:05:43,519 --> 00:05:46,399 that's gonna generate a ton of rim pressure. And then against the Bulls, 88 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,279 you just have these weird outings where eventually Jimmy Butler hit some of the gimmes, 89 00:05:49,399 --> 00:05:54,160 but they got thirty seven point five percent at the rim against the Bulls, 90 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,920 who don't have a premier rim protector. They have premier guys who can 91 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,639 pressure the ball on the perimeter, and Caruso and Beverly and Patrick Williams has 92 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,399 had some really nice moments too. But then they go and they shoot thirty 93 00:06:04,399 --> 00:06:08,959 five point seven percent in the first playing game against the Hawks, and like 94 00:06:09,079 --> 00:06:12,000 that's not a team that's known for their like they have played Coppela at least 95 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,319 versus Nikola Bouchevitch hanging around the basket, and Drummond was kind of big. 96 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,000 But so if you're they they've never finished I guess exceptionally well at the rim, 97 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,839 but it's sort of like, if you're gonna get so few looks at 98 00:06:21,879 --> 00:06:26,720 the rim, you need to then convert the ones that you're getting, and 99 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,439 then the three point shooting can run hot and cold. Because Max Streuss closed 100 00:06:30,439 --> 00:06:33,000 the season well, but like his three point percentage that dropped off this year. 101 00:06:33,399 --> 00:06:35,639 They got a huge game from him against Chicago. You're gonna need more 102 00:06:35,639 --> 00:06:39,480 of those, especially if you know you're not gonna get the Kyle one. 103 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,079 Kyle Lowry's just injured at this point, and two you're not always gonna get 104 00:06:43,079 --> 00:06:47,680 the Kyle Lowry that you got against the Hawks, and so offensively, I 105 00:06:47,759 --> 00:06:51,000 don't understand how it works them, especially because you already mentioned it. The 106 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:58,240 like they're gonna get I would argue lower quality looks from three or just fewer 107 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,319 looks from three against the Bucks, So you're ending that element into oh, 108 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,399 like the rim protections already a wash. And then you look at the other 109 00:07:03,519 --> 00:07:09,160 end of the floor, and yes, defensively because you have Butler, because 110 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:11,560 you have Bam at a Bio, because you were second and half court defense. 111 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,839 I think on the season it does feel like it should be compelling on 112 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:16,680 paper, but all of a sudden, it's like, well, Jimmy Butler 113 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,839 is gonna go on Drew Holiday, and then Bam will guard Yannest or he 114 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,639 might have to guard Brook Lopez or be on Brook Lopez, and then he's 115 00:07:25,639 --> 00:07:28,120 the one who's gonna help against the Honest, And it's like, what are 116 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,639 we how do you like? What's your solve for that? And then what 117 00:07:30,839 --> 00:07:34,240 you know? The I think I can't remember how often the Hawks did this, 118 00:07:34,279 --> 00:07:36,839 but the Bulls did a fairly good job of this at points throughout the 119 00:07:36,839 --> 00:07:43,240 game where if you're gonna get Tyler Hero's guy to screen for whoever the primary 120 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,839 ballhand or the Bucks case, whether it's gonna be Honest or Drew Holiday or 121 00:07:45,839 --> 00:07:48,439 even Chris Middleton, and then you're gonna put Hero in those actions. That 122 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:53,199 puts extra strain on Jimmy Butler, on Bam at a Bio, on basically 123 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,839 the entire defense. And I will point to a lot of people. I 124 00:07:56,839 --> 00:07:58,800 think you're gonna look at and say, okay, we like the Bucks half 125 00:07:58,839 --> 00:08:01,240 court offense had flaws in the past. And I guess if you don't really 126 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:05,319 believe in Chris Middleton right now, but like that he's fully healthy, or 127 00:08:05,399 --> 00:08:09,879 that he'll be like super effective, which on defense, I hear you, 128 00:08:09,879 --> 00:08:13,040 but if he's gonna play out, expect him to be close to Chris Middleton 129 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:18,040 on offense. The Bucks since he made his second return in Chris Milton, 130 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:22,759 they had third the third best half court offense in the NBA. It's like 131 00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:26,360 there's that just Brook Lopez is having the season of his life based off what 132 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,800 he's done, not just as a floor space or an addition everything he's done 133 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:33,519 on defense, but like his his abilities around the basket. I want, 134 00:08:33,759 --> 00:08:35,919 I don't want to believe this, but I think people are going to talk 135 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,320 themselves into believing that this can become a series. I don't see the pathway 136 00:08:39,759 --> 00:08:43,399 to it happening. Do you couple options? No? Not really, I 137 00:08:43,399 --> 00:08:46,320 mean just how what would it look like if there were pathways? Though? 138 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:48,720 And I think one is you know, you look, you look over the 139 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:54,919 shot profile information and we've hit most of it. I guess you could say 140 00:08:54,399 --> 00:08:58,720 you could point to I guess I should say the Bucks are top five in 141 00:08:58,799 --> 00:09:01,120 limiting opponent frequency the rim and from three right, so you're not getting those 142 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,559 you're not going to get those looks. But they allow a lot of mid 143 00:09:03,639 --> 00:09:07,519 rangers. That's by design. That's just because that's just how they how they 144 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,759 and a lot of other very good defenses and a lot of even bad defenses. 145 00:09:11,759 --> 00:09:15,360 That's just the norm. Really generally speaking. It's almost weird if a 146 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,440 team is, you know, let's shut off the mid range, like that's 147 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,720 nobody's game plan defensively. But and the Heat take the seventh most mid rangers 148 00:09:22,759 --> 00:09:24,679 by percentage of their total field goal attempts, and they make the seventh most, 149 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,399 so they're they're top ten in the area that the Bucks are going to 150 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,159 concede. We sort of bring this up with the Suns a lot the Heat 151 00:09:33,159 --> 00:09:37,320 are not the Suns. This is not Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, you 152 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,559 know, getting in there. This is a lot of difficult Tyler Hero some 153 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,879 of these one footage shots he takes and makes, He's a ton of skill. 154 00:09:43,919 --> 00:09:46,720 He hit one of the toughest left handed like close range floaters. I 155 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,279 think I've ever seen tonight, and you know, so he's he can make 156 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,960 shots, Butler's gonna hit some of those. I don't know. Maybe I 157 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,799 guess Bam probably accounts first a lot of that too, and he was he 158 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:01,240 was actually pretty pretty awful tonight too, at least off offensively. So there's 159 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,639 that, and then the Middleton thing you brought up to. There's just no 160 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:09,240 scenario where if Middleton is healthy or healthy ish, that the Heat have enough, 161 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,720 you know, to offset just the talent gap. It is interesting to 162 00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:16,759 note though, that so the Bucks are plus four point four on the season 163 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:20,840 net rating good not great, they're plus three point eight without Middleton on the 164 00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:26,799 floor. So I think his absence or or hobbled status or whatever whatever is 165 00:10:26,919 --> 00:10:30,879 up with him, I think that matters later. I just I just don't 166 00:10:30,919 --> 00:10:37,080 know. I don't think it matters now because I don't feel like the Bucks 167 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,320 are gonna need I think the Bucks have enough defensively to be fine. I 168 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,559 don't think they're gonna need this extra scoring punch that he might provide, just 169 00:10:43,639 --> 00:10:48,320 because I think they'll hold Miami so low points wise that it's not like it's 170 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,360 not like you're gonna, Oh, how are we going to get these you 171 00:10:50,399 --> 00:10:54,320 know, six eight, ten extra points a game out of some other position. 172 00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:58,000 I think I think the Heat just don't have enough to make that that 173 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:03,320 absence or injury matter. All that lunch is it is Miami. I think 174 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,919 you could say this about for a lot of teams, But is Miami sort 175 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:11,960 of uniquely easy for the Bucks to defend as well? Because when you get 176 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,879 break into the individual matchups, it's and I would guess you know, Jhanis 177 00:11:15,919 --> 00:11:18,039 didn't play against them a ton this season. I only saw, like, 178 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,799 I think, part of one game. You just put him because you have 179 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,279 Brook Lopez who can handle the band responsibilities by and large, and you have 180 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,080 Drew Holiday, you can handle the Jimmy Butler responsibilities by and large, and 181 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,879 you can get away with whether you want to. I wouldn't say like a 182 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,360 Jay Crowder, but if you want to go Javon Carter, if you want 183 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,360 to go with Pat Conaton, or even if Grayson's Allen's healthy, or even 184 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,600 Middleton, you could probably get away with like one of those guys on Hero 185 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,799 for a lot of the time. So Janie just gets to go on Caleb 186 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:48,360 Martin Or is it max Strus, and that allows Jannis to be honest on 187 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,240 defense, like you're not what are you doing to complicate Jannie's life on defense? 188 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:58,159 When the Bucks's best lineups are on the floor and the Heat in already 189 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,639 have all these struggles, then on top of it, I just feel like 190 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,320 they're all they don't do anything. I said this, They just put extra 191 00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:09,919 stress on Jannie defensively. I think a couple of other factors too, and 192 00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:13,159 they're kind of related to what she talked about. The size discarpancy is going 193 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,639 to be massive because the Heat play four guards a lot. You know, 194 00:12:16,799 --> 00:12:20,320 it had argenteries, right, four smaller guys. The other thing too, 195 00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:24,399 at depth, is like, so the three bench players that Miami played tonight 196 00:12:24,399 --> 00:12:30,080 where Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, and Kyle Lowry. I I mean, 197 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:31,919 I just don't think that's gonna be enough. And that's it. They didn't 198 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:35,159 play anybody else. This is a do or die game, so this is 199 00:12:35,159 --> 00:12:39,080 who they view as their eight best guys. And so presumably Janice is gonna 200 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:46,200 draw some fouls on auto bio or power forward Jimmy Butler, and so Kevin 201 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,159 Love is gonna have to get in there and then just I don't think Kevin 202 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,639 Love can do anything against Yannis, you know, downhill drive if he's going 203 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:54,799 to be in there as the rim protector. So I think defending the Rim 204 00:12:54,799 --> 00:13:00,480 could get incredibly difficult very quickly. If the Bucks just forced the Heat to 205 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:05,360 play. You know, the Heat are gonna be small, period, no 206 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,159 matter what. Because they brought Lowry off the bench, and they brought Martin 207 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,320 off the bench. That's a small forward who's doesn't have a lot of haft 208 00:13:11,399 --> 00:13:13,399 and a point guard who does have a lot of hafted. But but that's 209 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:18,879 that's not what you need necessarily. So I guess, you know, I 210 00:13:18,919 --> 00:13:26,399 guess there's a way for I don't know the initial matchups to be okay for 211 00:13:26,519 --> 00:13:31,440 Miami, but I just think the size and the depth issues are also just 212 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,720 critical. Even that that's even without Middleton, there's no way the size discrepancy 213 00:13:35,799 --> 00:13:41,279 works to Miami's advantage for their offense. I mean, who's so which of 214 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,679 the which of the Bucks defenders are gonna struggle to cover the Heat shooters in 215 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:52,120 space? I was gonna well shooters the so the Bucks allowed when Brook Lopez 216 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,919 defended bam ade Baio this season, which was in all four games and it 217 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,200 was for a bunch. They allowed the Heat to scores the team one point 218 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:03,159 one six points possession, which is pretty high. Is that something to look 219 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,320 at? But then it's to my last point about did you complicate life enough 220 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:09,720 for you? Honest? That's just sort of your ace in the hole is 221 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,039 all right? We have you? Honest, if Brooke, if bam is 222 00:14:11,039 --> 00:14:15,080 really a problem for Brooke, and I would argue that Brooke is not the 223 00:14:15,279 --> 00:14:18,159 problem in that it's probably maybe the reason that bam Adebayo is making out of 224 00:14:18,159 --> 00:14:20,879 those plays. And then I flip side it back to it. I looked 225 00:14:20,879 --> 00:14:24,600 at this too. The Heat average point nine eight points per possession as a 226 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:30,759 team whenever Drew Holiday defended Jimmy Butler, And so there's I'm just I'm trying 227 00:14:30,759 --> 00:14:33,080 to just figure out where there could be vulnerabilities for the Bucks against the Heat, 228 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,799 and I don't so let me frame it to you this way before we 229 00:14:35,799 --> 00:14:41,200 get to our predictions. Are you more worried or do the Heat have a 230 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:46,440 better chance of poking holes in the Bucks with their defense or with their offense? 231 00:14:46,519 --> 00:14:50,120 Is it just very clearly Miami's defense is their best, like slowing the 232 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:54,120 Bucks offense, turning it into a slog and sort of making them play your 233 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,960 game. I think it's so I can imagine because because I've seen it, 234 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:03,120 We've seen it Wakee get a little stodgy offensively, you know, in playoff 235 00:15:03,159 --> 00:15:07,120 games where it's just nobody's moving and it gets difficult for them to score and 236 00:15:07,159 --> 00:15:11,440 Jannis is driving into walls and that kind of thing. So, because because 237 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,759 we've seen that, uh, and because we know the Heats defense is actually 238 00:15:15,799 --> 00:15:18,840 just good, it's got to be that. It's got to be the defense. 239 00:15:18,919 --> 00:15:22,720 I think. I think that's that's the key is in a scenario where 240 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,399 Miami wins this series, it's they make the Bucks offense look like the worst 241 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:31,440 version of itself, and a couple of heat shooters run hot for enough games 242 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,320 to make it happen and maybe, you know, maybe you get a fifty 243 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,039 pointer from Jimmy Butler. We haven't really talked about that. That's not a 244 00:15:37,039 --> 00:15:39,679 strategic thing, that's not a nuanced take, but like he tends to have 245 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,440 one or two of those in them, you know, just a massive playoff 246 00:15:43,559 --> 00:15:46,519 efforts do Like he was fine, he was really good. I was fine. 247 00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:48,159 He was really good. Towards the end of that Bulls game, but 248 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,840 like he turned in about one game and then another three quarters of just not 249 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:58,480 playoff Jimmy Butler level basketball. Yeah no, And I would say too that 250 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:03,440 the Bucks are not You mentioned it at the top, like this is with 251 00:16:03,519 --> 00:16:07,679 Vukovich as your primary rim defender, the Bucks have a little more heft in 252 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:11,320 there to keep Jimmy from making a bunch of layups and you know, pump 253 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,080 fake short jumpers and one type stuff. And I know we didn't do this 254 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,399 for every series, but I just want just because for this series specifically, 255 00:16:18,399 --> 00:16:21,000 if I'm trying to find something that I now that I want to say it's 256 00:16:21,039 --> 00:16:22,960 not compelling, but I really I would be shocked if it. Like, 257 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,200 look, this is in twenty and twenty when the Heat beat the Bucks, 258 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:26,720 and the following year the Heat got swept by the Bucks. It's basically in 259 00:16:26,759 --> 00:16:30,440 a downhill ever since. And I know they made the conference finals last year, 260 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,080 but they're entering is the eight seed for a reason. Right now? 261 00:16:33,559 --> 00:16:36,320 I think Tyler hero is he too high profile to be an X factor. 262 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:37,480 I just feel like if you're gonna give up a lot of mid rangers, 263 00:16:37,519 --> 00:16:41,559 the stuff that he can do off the dribble from floata range is gonna be 264 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,000 big, and Jimmy Butler like, we just know, okay, well you 265 00:16:44,039 --> 00:16:48,720 need his rim pressure ability to draw you know, shooting fouls from the like 266 00:16:48,799 --> 00:16:52,200 not near the basket, like from from the mid range, to keep that 267 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,320 aspect of your offense on me. Yeah, for sure, I think Hero. 268 00:16:55,639 --> 00:16:57,840 I thought Hero tonight actually against the Bulls, was was like really, 269 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:00,919 I'm actually don't even know how many points he scored. He was five or 270 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,079 twelve, twelve points, seven assist, eight rebounds. I was gonna say 271 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:10,400 I thought he was like really kind of like circumspect. He wasn't. He 272 00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:12,039 wasn't looking to go out there and I'm gonna win this game with you know, 273 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,720 thirty five on my own. He was kind of probing a lot of 274 00:17:15,759 --> 00:17:18,920 probing drives to kind of see what was there and find other shooters. And 275 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,440 I think he was very much a contributor. He passed up a wide open 276 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,000 three very early in that game to get Struce his second three, just to 277 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:27,960 try to get him going. So I think if he can do some of 278 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:33,720 that, which is sort of I think against his nature as just a real 279 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:37,440 bucket getter, and then also capitalize on the Bucks kind of allowing some mid 280 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:41,279 range looks. Yeah, I think I think he's an X factor that way. 281 00:17:41,279 --> 00:17:42,319 I think he's also an X factor the other way, where I think 282 00:17:42,319 --> 00:17:45,759 he's going to get attacked a lot. And we should also note that, 283 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:51,839 you know, the Bulls can throw out Patrick Beverly, who was awful over 284 00:17:52,319 --> 00:17:56,200 in this game. In this game and committed every Fouley committed was a dumbfoul 285 00:17:56,279 --> 00:17:59,359 that didn't need to be committed like that. Did you see him leap frog 286 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:03,799 like bad? So Beverly and Crusoe, Right, that's that's a real strength 287 00:18:03,839 --> 00:18:07,680 in backcourt defense, and the Heat handled that. But congratulations, now you 288 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,440 get Javon Carter and Drew Holiday and there's a backline defense behind him. So 289 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,759 it's like that's gonna only make it tougher on Hero. But you're you're right. 290 00:18:15,799 --> 00:18:18,160 I think I think I would cite him as a real X factor. 291 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,119 Everybody else is kind of a known commodity, and it's gonna be make or 292 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:26,880 miss for for a lot of the Heats supple. The one interesting thing, 293 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:32,039 though, real quick, you made me realize that Sam Quinn from CBS tweeted 294 00:18:32,039 --> 00:18:34,160 this just after the matchup was set. I don't know if you saw it, 295 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,079 but the Heat and Bucks have played each other in the postseason three times 296 00:18:37,079 --> 00:18:41,359 twenty thirteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty one. The winner of each 297 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,319 series went on to win the NBA Finals. So whoever wins this series, 298 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,720 Dan book it that they're going all the way to I could buy that, 299 00:18:47,799 --> 00:18:49,640 just because I expect Milwaukee to win the series, and if I if I 300 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,599 had to pick an X factor for them, I think it's Javon Carter, 301 00:18:52,759 --> 00:18:55,880 Like that's someone who could see a lot of time on Tyler Hero. I 302 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,880 could also, I know he's dealing with an ankle injury and I haven't seen 303 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,359 what his status is. I could talk myself into Grayson Allen as well, 304 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,079 just because he might then see some time on Tyler Hero. But mostly that 305 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,599 his outside shooting. If you want to open up the lane for Johannis and 306 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,920 Drew and Chris Middleton and even stuff for Brook Lopez, you want that higher 307 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,240 volume, reliable three point shooter on the floor. Yeah, I could see 308 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,920 this being a Grayson Allen series if he's healthy, because I think he can. 309 00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:23,359 There are enough places for him to hide defensively that you can keep his 310 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,079 shooting on the floor. How many over under on the number of minutes Jake 311 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,279 Growder plays in this series. I'm gonna set it. It's sixteen per game. 312 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:37,279 I think he I feel like that's about right. I'd probably go I'd 313 00:19:37,279 --> 00:19:41,119 probably go under because I don't think it's gonna be a close series, and 314 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:44,000 you might just kind of hold him out towards jest. Is gonna be averaging 315 00:19:44,079 --> 00:19:45,359 under thirty? Yeah? Let it well, Yeah, that that seems like 316 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,960 a given. So you want to make picks here? Yes, what do 317 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,000 you have? It's it's just bucks in five. I think they'll be I'm 318 00:19:52,039 --> 00:19:56,039 just I guess I'm pricing in the Jimmy Butler game, you know. Basically, 319 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,599 I think we get one of them and it's in the bucks handle the 320 00:19:57,599 --> 00:20:00,799 other four. Yeah, just going bucks in five. This is this. 321 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,799 We haven't predicted a series sweep yet, and who knows, maybe we'll predict 322 00:20:04,839 --> 00:20:07,359 one in one of the next series we get to. But I'm gonna go 323 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,079 just bucks in. But it's like it's the cowards pick. But they have 324 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,519 Jimmy Butler, and like you said, he could be he have one of 325 00:20:12,559 --> 00:20:17,319 those like fifty point detonation type games and look, if it could be the 326 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:18,440 game. I don't think it'll be Game one, but it could just be 327 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:22,839 if Chris Middleton's actually banged up like they're they're just wrinkles that could be thrown 328 00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:26,480 into that. Or maybe there's some variants in the Bucks's half court offense, 329 00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:29,599 like we already discussed. Would you have felt very differently if it had been 330 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,519 the Bulls. Do you think the Heat or a tougher matchup than the Bulls 331 00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:36,559 would have been. I don't because well, towards the end of that Bulls 332 00:20:36,559 --> 00:20:37,400 game, yes, I believe the Heat looked like a better team, but 333 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:45,000 I just thought the having the perimeter defensive pressure like was more valuable against this 334 00:20:45,039 --> 00:20:48,960 Milwaukee team when you're looking at Caruso if you want to throw Beverly and having 335 00:20:48,039 --> 00:20:53,480 even Patrick Williams to throw it Yannis. Maybe, but I based off what 336 00:20:53,559 --> 00:20:57,359 I saw in the Bulls is win in the first playing game and then what 337 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,559 they kind of did after the trade deadline, I thought they were just the 338 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,000 more exciting matchup from Wolf where like, oh, they might get swept or 339 00:21:04,039 --> 00:21:07,200 losing five anyway, but the games will be closer. I think the Heat 340 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,200 are just better built to survive slogs and create them as well. And so 341 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,279 I don't know where you land on that. Yeah, I was just asking 342 00:21:15,319 --> 00:21:19,160 because I mean, if if Toronto makes a decent number of free throws, 343 00:21:19,759 --> 00:21:25,440 the Bulls just are done anyway. But I had the thought during the game 344 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:30,519 when it looked a little closer, that you know, maybe maybe Lavine and 345 00:21:30,599 --> 00:21:36,240 DeRozan could just it feels like there's just more offensive punch and the Bulls defense 346 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,359 was good, but I could. I wouldn't have. I mean, I 347 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,759 maybe would have given them a fifth game, just like we were giving the 348 00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:45,400 Heat. I don't I wouldn't have gone six or anything like that with the 349 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,400 Bulls I have. I don't know if I said it, though, I 350 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,640 have Bucks in five as well. So we have Timberwolves versus Denver Nuggets in 351 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:59,240 Round one. This is interesting to me for a couple of reasons, not 352 00:21:59,319 --> 00:22:03,079 even necessarily a matchup, but the circumstances under which these teams enter. The 353 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,480 Nuggets have like one of the most uninspiring closes to the season, and you 354 00:22:07,519 --> 00:22:11,279 have Michael Malone out there criticizing their effort like every other game at this point, 355 00:22:11,279 --> 00:22:14,680 there was weird stuff, not recently, but with like him and his 356 00:22:14,759 --> 00:22:18,720 use of Michael Porter junior, Michael Malone questioning the tough toughness of his team 357 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,079 and some of some people. I don't know if it was Michael Malone specifically 358 00:22:23,079 --> 00:22:26,440 for someone with the Nuggets, or I saw a writer like ascribing, well, 359 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,680 this had to do with just the discourse around the third MVP, like 360 00:22:30,839 --> 00:22:33,839 Ray Yokus quest for a third MVP. I don't know, and then the 361 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:37,400 Wolves come in and rugobearts dealing with back spasms. He did look okay against 362 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,839 the thunder. It'd be nice if he could finish through contact every once in 363 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:45,640 a while. Though they don't have Naz Reid done for the year, they 364 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,759 don't have Jane McDaniels after he punched the wall, also done for the year. 365 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,720 Anton Edwards does not look right. He's still get with him. He 366 00:22:52,799 --> 00:22:55,519 can't hit. It's some with his shoulder, I think, but they also 367 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,920 did like his ankle and like so he's just in pieces. His jumper is 368 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,079 not or has not been falling. He's still been able to get to the 369 00:23:03,079 --> 00:23:07,000 basket, get his euro steps in and he's actually been like I don't think 370 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,359 he's suffered on defense that much, So that would make sense if it's his 371 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:11,559 shoulder where it's kind of like, all right, maybe it's trouble fighting over 372 00:23:11,599 --> 00:23:15,440 screens, but he can still get in passing lanes. And the fact that 373 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,720 he's I don't want to say he's avoiding his jumper like the play like he 374 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,599 even looked he tossed in like a little push shot against the thunder and it 375 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:26,000 just looks so awkward, like a borderline painful. So all that like just 376 00:23:27,039 --> 00:23:30,920 like coming in. So these two teams are just like coming in worse for 377 00:23:32,039 --> 00:23:33,359 wear, I guess would be might regument. I know the Wolves are just 378 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,920 coming off a win, but like they blew the double digit lead against the 379 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,920 Lakers in the first playing game. They've blown more double digit leads, I 380 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:44,440 believe than any other team in the league year. Up my overarching thought coming 381 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:45,640 in, I'm sure you have. This is the thing I'm most curious about. 382 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,720 I'm sure you have the same one. We did not see the dual 383 00:23:48,759 --> 00:23:52,079 big setup go against Denver this year all four of the games they split the 384 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:57,119 season series two to two. Karl Anthony Towns was not available for them. 385 00:23:57,279 --> 00:24:03,160 What does that look like? Because we know Yo Kich is there and Rudy 386 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:07,240 Gobert will be on Yo kitch. I don't think he's built to slow Yo 387 00:24:07,319 --> 00:24:10,680 kitch. I don't think he's necessarily the worst matchup for or Yo kich isn't 388 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:15,559 the worst matchup for him specifically, either like how do you fit like Karl 389 00:24:15,599 --> 00:24:19,079 Anthony Towns into that equation? Or I'm assuming you're gonna have Aaron Gordon tether 390 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,000 to him, but then like that really limits your options. You have KCP 391 00:24:22,599 --> 00:24:29,000 going after Anthony Edwards at that point, and I'm wondering, just because of 392 00:24:29,039 --> 00:24:33,519 the this is the dilemma I feel like Denver could get into. If the 393 00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:40,960 Wolves stay big, are you gonna be less inclined then to pull a Michael 394 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,720 And I'll say it's Michael Porter Junior. But Aaron Gord's been so bad offensively 395 00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:47,480 of late, so where you're not gonna go a little bit small like Bruce 396 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,440 Brown might help your defense a little bit more against Anthony Edwards than maybe a 397 00:24:51,559 --> 00:24:56,440 KCP could at points, But you're gonna be reticent to pull Michael Porter Junior 398 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,440 for that, just because then you're downsizing by so much. I don't I'm 399 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:06,039 like stumbling into my words because I feel like the Wolves pose an interesting matchup 400 00:25:06,039 --> 00:25:10,519 dilemma for the Nuggets to where they have to be more careful if they're gonna 401 00:25:10,519 --> 00:25:14,000 take Gordon or Porter Junior out of one of their top lineups. I guess 402 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,720 that's what I'm getting at. It almost feels harder against the Wolves if they're 403 00:25:17,759 --> 00:25:21,319 gonna stay big. We know there'll be plenty of one big minutes, especially 404 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,079 now because Nazrid isn't healthy. But it still feels like it's something and I 405 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,000 don't know how to feel about it. I'm not saying it's an issue for 406 00:25:26,079 --> 00:25:29,079 Denver. I just don't know how to feel about it. Yeah, it's 407 00:25:29,079 --> 00:25:33,039 a big unknown, and certainly in contrast to had it been the Thunder who 408 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,480 just don't play any But it's over six nine. It's such a different setup, 409 00:25:37,759 --> 00:25:41,519 and it's worth unpacking, like how much having like more size than the 410 00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:45,920 Nuggets, how much of a benefit that is versus being smaller and quicker and 411 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,279 more athletic and spacing them out and attacking them that way. But I think 412 00:25:49,279 --> 00:25:52,680 a lot of it is just the unknown. We don't I mean, the 413 00:25:52,039 --> 00:25:56,039 Wolves can't really have much of a much of an idea about how the town's 414 00:25:56,079 --> 00:26:00,079 gobear partnership works against anybody because the sample is still so small, and let 415 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:07,519 alone against against the Nuggets. I think so just as you're so if if 416 00:26:07,559 --> 00:26:12,400 if you want to take Porter Junior or Gordon off the floor, I honestly 417 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,960 think you might just see more Zeke Nagy, I think you might see it 418 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,200 go the other way. I think maybe you'd see Denver go with a little 419 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,920 more size, because you know, they we've harped on it all year. 420 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,720 They have this. They've allowed the second highest opponent field goal percentage at the 421 00:26:25,799 --> 00:26:27,680 rim. The opponent shoot over seventy percent at the rim, which is just 422 00:26:29,079 --> 00:26:33,200 ridiculous. I'm not saying Zeke Nagy is some you know, cure all for 423 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:37,160 allowing opponents to score at the rim, But I don't think. I don't 424 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:44,000 think you get where you need to defensively if you're Denver by going smaller, 425 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,400 because I think that still just needs to be the end of the court that 426 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,839 we focus on. Because Minnesota's got a number eight defense on the year, 427 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,160 but they're about two points one hund possessions. Worse what, they don't have 428 00:26:55,279 --> 00:26:56,880 McDaniels on the floor, and they will not have McDaniels on the floor, 429 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:03,720 so they're average to slightly below average defense of with just without McDaniels, So 430 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:07,400 I don't really have any concerns about how the Nuggets are going to score. 431 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,640 However, they can figure their lineup size wise, so I think you might 432 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:18,000 just try to protect the rim a little better and hope that Edwards still is 433 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:22,160 not able to kind of beat if it's Brown, if it's if it's Gordon, 434 00:27:22,519 --> 00:27:29,079 if it's KCP, that he's not able to just beat them individually or 435 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:32,680 make Yoki's work too much in pick and rolls. I think you might want 436 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,599 to more backline help. I don't know it's weird because I don't I don't 437 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,039 think DeAndre Jordan, Well, unless it's Gobert only minutes you're not gonna see 438 00:27:38,039 --> 00:27:42,240 DeAndre Jordan, I don't think for the Nuggets. But yeah, going small 439 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:47,240 doesn't strike me as as like the way forward, because that's usually what you 440 00:27:47,279 --> 00:27:51,960 do if you need to get some offense on the floor. Do you think 441 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:56,480 how do you feel about like? Is the Timberwols defense low key? Maybe 442 00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,079 easier for Denver to defend because of their struggles the half court with their best 443 00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:04,640 players on the floor and the caveat is I'm basing this one, there's numbers 444 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,519 like they were in the sixth percentile. When Conley, Edwards, Gobert and 445 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,400 Towns play together in half court offensive efficiency, the sample is so small. 446 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:17,319 He's just throwing it up. But I'm looking at it as Gobert is. 447 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:21,119 I don't. He's not a liability. He's just a very specific piece on 448 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,720 offense. And you do have Towns back, but like Anthy Edwards is now 449 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,839 banged up, you don't have the leap that kind of Jaden McDaniels did as 450 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,039 year. But you also do have Kyle Anderson or Nikki Alexander. Walker's actually 451 00:28:30,079 --> 00:28:33,640 been playing really well for them. That was another underrated piece of the Conley 452 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,160 trade. And that's the other bigger one here. They just sort of have 453 00:28:36,279 --> 00:28:40,400 Mike Conley floating around, very good ball, mover, connective passer, brings 454 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,839 everything together. Isn't someone that's just gonna roll over on defense, by the 455 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:48,839 way, And I almost wonder I'd initially thought when I die dug in the 456 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,640 numbers, I was like, this might actually be a team when you see 457 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,720 how vanilla their offense can be where it gets late into the shot clock that 458 00:28:56,799 --> 00:28:59,880 Denver can handle because they're not getting late in the shop clock because they're swinging 459 00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:00,759 the all around. But then you look at them when they get into their 460 00:29:00,759 --> 00:29:07,559 early offense, whether it's Auntie Edwards just attacking or Mike Conley just setting everybody 461 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:11,680 up, they're really dangerous. And that's without Nasri, that's without Jane McDaniels 462 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,759 too, Like they can still be dangerous doing that. And because I'm not 463 00:29:15,799 --> 00:29:18,720 saying Mike Conley makes all the difference, but like he just sort of you 464 00:29:18,759 --> 00:29:22,559 could, if you're Denver, very quickly run into some mathematical matchup problems just 465 00:29:22,599 --> 00:29:26,599 between towns Auntie Edwards if he's playing well, and then Mike Conley is just 466 00:29:26,599 --> 00:29:27,960 sort of sitting on the floor. And that if Nikki Alexander Walker is gonna 467 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:32,200 have the type of game he has res providing ball pressure on the defensive end, 468 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,720 probably not hitting his wide open threes, those are very hit or miss 469 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,039 for him, but like putting the defense itself in rotation, which is where 470 00:29:38,079 --> 00:29:42,359 Denver can struggle. I will say the other thing on this broth throwback to 471 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:47,200 you. Ben Taylor did a great video on Thinking Basketball about how the Nuggets 472 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,599 were trying. He called it peel switching. These different ways of using Nikolio 473 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:55,680 kitchen the half court to ensure that you're not sacrificing as much ring ring protection 474 00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:00,119 and can kind of exist in a like a state of scramble. So this 475 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,519 a team because of Conley, because of if Na's going to be playing, 476 00:30:03,599 --> 00:30:07,079 even because of Anderson with his deliberateness getting into the lane, and then of 477 00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:11,720 course Anthony Edwards that where that becomes valuable. I don't have a great I 478 00:30:11,759 --> 00:30:15,920 have very strong thoughts about this matchup, and I'm so curious. My strongest 479 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,839 thought is curiosity, and I don't have a great hold unnecessarily how it plays 480 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,680 out. Yeah, I think this is the series where, well I don't 481 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:29,240 want to overstate it, but I feel like I'm almost as interested in Game 482 00:30:29,279 --> 00:30:33,880 one of this series as I am in any other, like just because like 483 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,599 we're kind of just trying to imagine, right like what this matchup looks like 484 00:30:37,599 --> 00:30:40,880 and where the holes might be, where the pressure points could be. And 485 00:30:41,039 --> 00:30:42,480 Game one I think will tell us a lot. It'll tell us, it'll 486 00:30:42,519 --> 00:30:47,519 answer some of the questions you're asking with respect the lineup and how the Nuggets 487 00:30:47,519 --> 00:30:52,319 defend and upside downsize, you know all that stuff. I just think I'm 488 00:30:52,319 --> 00:30:56,400 trying to like, I'm trying to find this is it's a similar thing for 489 00:30:56,519 --> 00:31:00,680 the for the heat in the Bucks. I'm trying to find ways for Minnesota 490 00:31:00,839 --> 00:31:04,920 to be successful here, and I just am not feeling I don't feel like 491 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,799 so for example, the Nuggets are I want to make sure I get this 492 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,839 right. They're twenty eight and points per one hundred alloud off of live rebounds. 493 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,440 So that's just they're not getting back. It's hard for me if Edwards 494 00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:22,160 is not like the how many times, speaking of you said peel switches, 495 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:26,880 how many times did Edwards even tonight when he had a better game, have 496 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,480 a have like a one on two or a one on one like semi transition 497 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,960 play and he would just peel off and he wouldn't go with the guy. 498 00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,279 He had a couple of nice layups where he really floated the rim, but 499 00:31:36,319 --> 00:31:40,680 he was just not pushing the pace and he was not attacking. And so 500 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,519 if he's going to be the Hugs, they're gonna be bigger than the thunder 501 00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:48,279 two where they have Jalen Williams is just their largest body on the court at 502 00:31:48,279 --> 00:31:52,160 all times right now. Yeah, But but I was gonna say, if 503 00:31:52,279 --> 00:31:56,640 if if he's not going to be that kind of downhill athletic force that pushes 504 00:31:56,680 --> 00:32:00,000 in transition and tries to exploit Denver just not being very good at getting back 505 00:32:00,039 --> 00:32:04,960 act off live rebounds. Then that's not really an area to exploit for Minnesota. 506 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,279 And if you're gonna have go Barton Towns on the floor, you're not. 507 00:32:07,319 --> 00:32:09,240 I mean, Towns can run, can run the floor in a straight 508 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,839 line, but he's not going to push it himself, and so I don't 509 00:32:12,839 --> 00:32:17,599 see that as a way forward for Minnesota's. Okay, see, Towns were 510 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,880 just getting back out running Rudy. He was possessions. Yeah, so well 511 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,880 I'm not saying I'm just it was. It's just so fascinating. So let's 512 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,279 get into them, like just the X factors here. I feel like I 513 00:32:31,319 --> 00:32:35,039 can't even pick one for the Nuggets. I'm gonna say Aaron Gordon because you 514 00:32:35,079 --> 00:32:37,440 don't want to give Karl Anthony Towns a spot to hide, and so you 515 00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:42,200 need Aaron Gordon to do something, whether it's be able to to cut run 516 00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,359 off ball or hit his his threes, which he has struggled doing of late. 517 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:50,279 At the same time, just if they decide to throw the which teams 518 00:32:50,279 --> 00:32:52,440 are reticent to do because you know what happens when you double or throw the 519 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:57,480 kitchen sicking in Nakoly Yoka. Which's why the double team data where you're looking 520 00:32:57,519 --> 00:32:59,279 at, oh, all these players, look all these doubles, and then 521 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,960 people were will look Yokich isn't on this, like that's another vote against the 522 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,880 prem VP. It's like, no, he's not being doubled. It's not 523 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,160 a vote against him. Be because he was doubled so much. That's an 524 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,640 The amount of times teams throw like eight bodies out of the five players are 525 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,319 on the court and bad it's incredible. But you're not doubling Yokis because he 526 00:33:14,319 --> 00:33:17,519 will cut you up. But I do think this leads me to a Michael 527 00:33:17,519 --> 00:33:21,359 Porter Junior or Jamal Murray? Are those just X factors? At least one 528 00:33:21,359 --> 00:33:23,599 of them needs to have a Monster series and the job isn't going to be 529 00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:29,559 super easy for one of them. Because my guess is I'm assuming Conley's gonna 530 00:33:29,559 --> 00:33:32,920 get plenty of time on Jamal Murray and that you'll see a lot of Anthony 531 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,359 Edwards. Is he going to be on KCP and then kind of kind of 532 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,240 float around or are we going to see him match up with like are they 533 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,480 going to try? And I think Michael Porter Junior is just too good of 534 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,839 a shooter and can at least move with the ball in his hands ring without 535 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:50,160 the ball hands that you don't want Towns on him. But one of those 536 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,400 guys is basically who I'm looking at. Where it's Jamal Murray or Michael Porter 537 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,559 Junior, I mean preferably both. They need to have a monster offensive series, 538 00:33:57,559 --> 00:34:00,680 not because the Wolves can necessarily shut down Yokich, but because you can't 539 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:05,200 really trust the rest of the supporting cast right now with the way Bruce Brown 540 00:34:05,279 --> 00:34:07,079 has shot the ball lately, Casey Pasman on sort of a cold shooting streak, 541 00:34:07,119 --> 00:34:10,199 and then everything I mentioned about Aaron Gordon, who, by the way, 542 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,840 people were campaigning to I'm not faulting people at the time. They're like, 543 00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,079 Aaron Gordon's kind of a fringe All Star right now, and they just 544 00:34:16,119 --> 00:34:22,880 think like where he finished the season. No, so I think if if 545 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,119 it were, that was ridiculous at the time, I'm sorry because it just 546 00:34:27,039 --> 00:34:30,119 I mean, I know he was shot. He shot the shit out of 547 00:34:30,119 --> 00:34:31,880 the ball to start the year, and everybody was saying, how well He's 548 00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:36,760 not just depending on cutting baseline and getting hit by Yokis for dunks, like 549 00:34:37,039 --> 00:34:40,360 I mean, yeah, pretty much everybody on this team is. I think 550 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:45,800 if it were me and I'm Minnesota, I would probably put Edwards on Jamal 551 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,639 Murray. And so that's why Murray is kind of my X factor pick because 552 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,239 I think, really, really Murray is the X factor for the Nuggets, 553 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:58,599 like writ large because him getting back to the point where we weren't sure if 554 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,920 he or Vian Mitchell or Devin Booker were the better player of those three we 555 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,159 always like talked about in conjunction with one another, getting back to that guy 556 00:35:06,199 --> 00:35:08,239 who's you know, putting up multiple whatever it was thirty and forty, you 557 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,440 have a fifty point game in the playoffs like him and him and Mitchell went 558 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,440 back and forth in a series. I think it might have been twenty twenty. 559 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:21,639 I think Murray needs to dramatically like outplay Edwards and just beat him and 560 00:35:22,039 --> 00:35:23,960 beat him head up. Basically, I don't think he can guard Edwards. 561 00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:29,000 I think Edwards can guard him, but I think if Murray outplays Edwards like 562 00:35:29,039 --> 00:35:32,880 there's just no path, there's no hope for the Wolves. So he would 563 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:37,119 be my pick on that side. The Wolves are trickier. I mean, 564 00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:39,679 we can't pick Towns right. I would probably because on the same thinking, 565 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,800 Towns is just too good of a player. It's like, yeah, well, 566 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,159 if Towns doesn't play great, then the eighth seed cannot beat the one 567 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:51,760 seed. But I think he needs to matter a ton on both ends because 568 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,920 he's gonna be asked to do a lot of the you know, covering up 569 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:59,239 cutters that are and how is it gonna be able to guard a way out 570 00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,119 in space and come back and try to shut off some of the passes that 571 00:36:01,199 --> 00:36:05,920 Yokich is getting too guys around the basket. His job is gonna be really 572 00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,159 difficult, and it's a part of the game that he's just not historically been 573 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:12,760 very good at Towns. So I don't know if I call I don't feel 574 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,199 like cheating the calm the X factor, But I think what he's going to 575 00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:20,960 have to do defensively against an offense this good that is going to put a 576 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,679 ton of movement and spacing and activity around Yokich, Like he doesn't like, 577 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:29,280 You're not gonna put him on Yokich. Gobert's got that assignment, So he's 578 00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:36,199 gonna have to be pretty spectacular defensively, I think to keep the Nuggets from 579 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:39,199 really just kind of running them out of the gym. Almost default tuny ki 580 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,960 Alexander Walker for the Wolves because it seems like he's going to be the one 581 00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,679 that soaks up the most minutes in the absence of Jane McDaniels and also does 582 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:50,480 his We know what Mike Conley can do already, but does the pressure that 583 00:36:50,519 --> 00:36:52,519 he can provide on the ball or at least getting out in transition, does 584 00:36:52,519 --> 00:36:55,920 that become more important? If Anthony Edwards is playing through like eighty injuries, 585 00:36:57,039 --> 00:36:59,519 is that does that have become more important? He? By the way, 586 00:37:00,039 --> 00:37:06,400 Xander Walker kind of a phenomenal career like reinvention, because I don't if you 587 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:12,199 remember, he started out as just an unabashed chucker and that was not going 588 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,800 well for him efficiency wise, and then at some point in Utah he just 589 00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:22,360 he just leaned in on defense and he was awesome against the Thunder against SG. 590 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,760 I mean, SG, I still got his but like Alexander Walker has 591 00:37:25,039 --> 00:37:29,760 has the frame and was playing really hard. Like I think it's kind of 592 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,360 amazing that he's gone from what he was too If he sticks in the league, 593 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:36,039 and I think he definitely will now and that was in some doubt for 594 00:37:36,079 --> 00:37:38,679 a while. It'll be because he can just guard and if he makes shots, 595 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,800 great, but that, yeah, he's I should have mentioned him. 596 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,960 I was saying I would put Edwards on Murray. I think I still would, 597 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,079 especially if Edwards just isn't going to be as big a factor offensively. 598 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:52,159 But yeah, Alexander Walker, I think is a is a definite, like, 599 00:37:52,599 --> 00:37:55,559 is very interesting option to kind of see if you can get him on 600 00:37:55,639 --> 00:38:00,559 Murray and maybe he can rove a little bit, even even bother Michael Porter 601 00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:04,480 Junior, even though there's a pretty big size size discrepancy there. They and 602 00:38:04,679 --> 00:38:07,320 for what it's worth, in the Denver matchups during the regular season, And 603 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,119 I think I might agree with you with Anti Edwards. I just Kenny does 604 00:38:10,159 --> 00:38:14,199 he have the range of motion on his entire body to stick with Murray. 605 00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,920 They did stick him on KCP for most of the time when they played Denver. 606 00:38:19,079 --> 00:38:22,679 So predictions, who do you got in this series? I'm gonna cower 607 00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,760 my way through this one too, and just say Nuggets in five. I 608 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:30,719 think though this one I could see being a sweep more likely than I could 609 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:35,679 see the one eight in the East, but I think I think Minnesota. 610 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,960 I think Minnesota has enough to get one here. That's that's as far as 611 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:42,159 they go. I think I'm reading too much into the bad energy in Denver. 612 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,840 I'm gonna go Nuggets in six, and I think Nuggets we have very 613 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:46,039 vocal Nuggets. I don't know if they're subscribed to us or if they just 614 00:38:46,039 --> 00:38:50,920 find us on YouTube. They and I appreciate everyone I guess who watches and 615 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,400 comments, but they're gonna be We've just gotten angry Nuggets fans at us, 616 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,519 which is just weird because the Nuggets are my title pick is of right now, 617 00:38:57,559 --> 00:38:59,599 Like, well, I move off that based on series matchups, I 618 00:38:59,599 --> 00:39:01,400 don't know. I'm just I could see it being a sweep. I could 619 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,760 see being in five games. Something just feels off about Denver and I think 620 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,400 the other you know, we didn't even really talk about their depth beyond their 621 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:12,880 top six guys, and you're gonna have to explore it. Depending like Christian 622 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,280 Brown might be super important to this series. If Michael Porter Junior isn't having 623 00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,880 a great game, you're looking for a body to maybe throw it at the 624 00:39:19,039 --> 00:39:23,000 Edwards or Aaron Gordon's not having a good game, so you just don't trust 625 00:39:23,039 --> 00:39:27,039 anyone after their top six guys. And if you want to throw Brown in 626 00:39:27,079 --> 00:39:29,880 there, I guess that's fine. And I know depth isn't as important in 627 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,599 the playoffs. This just feels like maybe I'm underrating their their home court advantage. 628 00:39:35,039 --> 00:39:37,360 And they've been good in Denver all year, of course, and they 629 00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,719 clearly have the best player in this series. I just something feels off there. 630 00:39:42,519 --> 00:39:46,320 So nothing feels off about the Timberwolves. See you guys in each other. 631 00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:50,440 I'm gonna go, I'm just yeah, all right, that's fair. 632 00:39:50,519 --> 00:39:52,360 Nuggets in five they don't have Jaden McDaniels, and like, I'm not factoring 633 00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,960 that in enough nuggets in five. The biggest nuggets in five for me? 634 00:39:57,039 --> 00:39:58,920 Do you want to take us out of here? After we said we were 635 00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,679 gonna do so ten minutes on each series and we did twenty on each series. 636 00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:06,599 Well, a two to one promise to delivery ratio is pretty good for 637 00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:08,800 us. Yeah, So everybody, thanks for listening. Like great review, 638 00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:12,840 Subscribe, follow us on socials, tell your friends, tell your enemies, 639 00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:15,760 Enjoy the playoffs. Man, the playoffs starts tomorrow. I'm pumped. I 640 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:20,800 can't wait. I'm really excited. We will reconvene frequently to give you more 641 00:40:21,199 --> 00:40:24,039 incredible content that hopefully has a little more drama than a couple of one versus 642 00:40:24,119 --> 00:40:27,880 eight matchups. But as always, we close with a shout out to the 643 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,519 one and only frank n Lakina and also an apology to Jared Allen.