What is krack lacking, Fellow thermonuclear affors, I am a damn valley coming
at you with my certified fantabulous co host Grant, who's we're dropping ours like
the sixth podcast the week is definitely like the eighth hour of content we're dropping.
So we're you're welcome or we're sorry, depending on how you feel about
that. Two more playoff series to roll through. Now that we have both
matchup set, we are going to begin with the Bucks Heat series and we're
talking about two one v eight matchups, So we'll like try and take this,
I promise really seriously, but it's just it's tough to carve out pathways
to upsets for both of these matchups. But first, the question we all
care about, and I'll make a prediction. I think he's probably doing,
like on a scale one to ten, like a seven and a half.
Grant, how are you doing? I'm like a fourteen? Dan today?
Yeah, really good day today in the in the household. This will interest
no one but you because you and I were texting about this yesterday. That
tree that I was trying to take out of my backyard it's out, baby,
So you know, feeling really good about. That's wanting to start an
alpha male podcast and it's gonna be all about lumberjacking to start, how he
can get down trees and take out that. Are we sure it's called lumberjacking?
That feels like shouldn't it shouldn't be called that if that's what it's called.
I am so not handy. I would call someone to change a light
bulb. Probably if my wife wasn't so handy, That's exactly what I would
do. I did build a treadmill with her a couple of weeks ago.
Though that's pretty She was nervous to use it the first time because I was
so critical to putting it together that she was probably convinced that she was gonna
die. So is it still working? Yeah, she's used it a bunch
of times and she's yet to die, so I got I thought that as
an absolute win. Yeah solid. Speaking of yet to die, we're gonna
talk about some eight seeds today. They may not last long as you're treadmill.
In some cases. I think the heat Bucks are just the heat bulls
game. We're not going to talk about that game, and maybe we'll get
into something with like the teams who are out futures or whatever, but it
was like entered. It was close, but it wasn't entertaining. Like there
were moments, but it wasn't like super compelling. And that feels like the
Heat season and the nutshells they play in like a bunch of these stressful games.
Yea, and their half court offense has been really bad. They had
I do believe in their defense, but that really fell off a cliff to
close the season. And I know you have stronger feelings about not that you're
going to predict an upset, but you have stronger thoughts on this series than
I do. And so I have questions, But what are you what's your
biggest overarching thought heading into this? Is it who's Milwaukee gonna playing Round two?
Or yeah? Right? Basically, I mean I think I've been a
little bit more hesitant to give up on the Heat than some I don't feel
any more confident after this game, just because you know this before we get
into the matchup with the Bucks, which is just going to be kind talking
about like really, and it'll be the case for the other matchup two in
the West, like what series of things needs to happen for the eight seed
to have a chance, really and the first of those I think was on
display against the Bulls in the final playing game in the Eastern Conference, which
was somebody from three that you don't anticipate running really hot needs to run really
hot, and that was Max Struce, who was seven or twelve from three.
So if you get either him or Gave Vincent, who was awful.
By the way, we've had a running thing all season of I only see
good Gave Vincent games. I've seen a lot of bad Gave Vincent games lately,
so it's really balanced out. But someone has to run hot from three,
because outside of Struce, the Heat were three of eighteen from deep,
just keeping right in line with their twenty seventh or twenty eighth ranked and according
Cleaning, the last three point percentage of this season, the offense is just
an absolute slog. It's really tough to watch. It takes a ton of
effort to generate shots. There's not a lot of movement. All that I
think is going to play right into Milwaukee's hands, and it's just whose defense
is phenomenal and will just I think happily concede threes to the Heat, and
I just so the overarching thought is not a shocker, but it's just how
do the Heat score enough points against a defense this good when they've been bad
overall against every defense offensively this season. So just a little background before I
kind of kick it to you. The Heat and Bucks did split their four
games this season, all of which came between you know, like January twelfth.
I think in February twenty fourth, they were very much condensed. Joanna's
only played one full game of those. He sat out too along with Chris
Middleton, and played like six minutes in another. The one of the games
that he did play, he was dominant at thirty five points and like fourteen
boards on thirteen and nineteen shooting, and the Bucks lost that game. So
I guess if you're an optimist for the Heat, you might say, well,
they can weather the storm. I guess, so to speak, but
you know that that I so. But I think in most cases, I
don't know how you feel about this. Certainly here I'm not taking much away
from head the head matchups, particularly when Jannis played in one point two of
the four games. Basically, if that so, I guess, yeah,
do you have anything? I have some other numbers to do. We can
get a little more granular. But that is the story, right, It's
just how did the heat score and how do they score against the Bucks defense
that gives you nothing at the rim and gives you nothing from three, Like
where where are these points going to come from? And look, it's especially
compelling because you mentioned their offense being a slog and they finished the regular season
twentieth and half court efficiency and there were points like in the season where that
was lower, where it felt like they were hovering around the bottom five.
And they're not a team that's gonna, despite what Jimmy Butler can do,
that's gonna generate a ton of rim pressure. And then against the Bulls,
you just have these weird outings where eventually Jimmy Butler hit some of the gimmes,
but they got thirty seven point five percent at the rim against the Bulls,
who don't have a premier rim protector. They have premier guys who can
pressure the ball on the perimeter, and Caruso and Beverly and Patrick Williams has
had some really nice moments too. But then they go and they shoot thirty
five point seven percent in the first playing game against the Hawks, and like
that's not a team that's known for their like they have played Coppela at least
versus Nikola Bouchevitch hanging around the basket, and Drummond was kind of big.
But so if you're they they've never finished I guess exceptionally well at the rim,
but it's sort of like, if you're gonna get so few looks at
the rim, you need to then convert the ones that you're getting, and
then the three point shooting can run hot and cold. Because Max Streuss closed
the season well, but like his three point percentage that dropped off this year.
They got a huge game from him against Chicago. You're gonna need more
of those, especially if you know you're not gonna get the Kyle one.
Kyle Lowry's just injured at this point, and two you're not always gonna get
the Kyle Lowry that you got against the Hawks, and so offensively, I
don't understand how it works them, especially because you already mentioned it. The
like they're gonna get I would argue lower quality looks from three or just fewer
looks from three against the Bucks, So you're ending that element into oh,
like the rim protections already a wash. And then you look at the other
end of the floor, and yes, defensively because you have Butler, because
you have Bam at a Bio, because you were second and half court defense.
I think on the season it does feel like it should be compelling on
paper, but all of a sudden, it's like, well, Jimmy Butler
is gonna go on Drew Holiday, and then Bam will guard Yannest or he
might have to guard Brook Lopez or be on Brook Lopez, and then he's
the one who's gonna help against the Honest, And it's like, what are
we how do you like? What's your solve for that? And then what
you know? The I think I can't remember how often the Hawks did this,
but the Bulls did a fairly good job of this at points throughout the
game where if you're gonna get Tyler Hero's guy to screen for whoever the primary
ballhand or the Bucks case, whether it's gonna be Honest or Drew Holiday or
even Chris Middleton, and then you're gonna put Hero in those actions. That
puts extra strain on Jimmy Butler, on Bam at a Bio, on basically
the entire defense. And I will point to a lot of people. I
think you're gonna look at and say, okay, we like the Bucks half
court offense had flaws in the past. And I guess if you don't really
believe in Chris Middleton right now, but like that he's fully healthy, or
that he'll be like super effective, which on defense, I hear you,
but if he's gonna play out, expect him to be close to Chris Middleton
on offense. The Bucks since he made his second return in Chris Milton,
they had third the third best half court offense in the NBA. It's like
there's that just Brook Lopez is having the season of his life based off what
he's done, not just as a floor space or an addition everything he's done
on defense, but like his his abilities around the basket. I want,
I don't want to believe this, but I think people are going to talk
themselves into believing that this can become a series. I don't see the pathway
to it happening. Do you couple options? No? Not really, I
mean just how what would it look like if there were pathways? Though?
And I think one is you know, you look, you look over the
shot profile information and we've hit most of it. I guess you could say
you could point to I guess I should say the Bucks are top five in
limiting opponent frequency the rim and from three right, so you're not getting those
you're not going to get those looks. But they allow a lot of mid
rangers. That's by design. That's just because that's just how they how they
and a lot of other very good defenses and a lot of even bad defenses.
That's just the norm. Really generally speaking. It's almost weird if a
team is, you know, let's shut off the mid range, like that's
nobody's game plan defensively. But and the Heat take the seventh most mid rangers
by percentage of their total field goal attempts, and they make the seventh most,
so they're they're top ten in the area that the Bucks are going to
concede. We sort of bring this up with the Suns a lot the Heat
are not the Suns. This is not Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, you
know, getting in there. This is a lot of difficult Tyler Hero some
of these one footage shots he takes and makes, He's a ton of skill.
He hit one of the toughest left handed like close range floaters. I
think I've ever seen tonight, and you know, so he's he can make
shots, Butler's gonna hit some of those. I don't know. Maybe I
guess Bam probably accounts first a lot of that too, and he was he
was actually pretty pretty awful tonight too, at least off offensively. So there's
that, and then the Middleton thing you brought up to. There's just no
scenario where if Middleton is healthy or healthy ish, that the Heat have enough,
you know, to offset just the talent gap. It is interesting to
note though, that so the Bucks are plus four point four on the season
net rating good not great, they're plus three point eight without Middleton on the
floor. So I think his absence or or hobbled status or whatever whatever is
up with him, I think that matters later. I just I just don't
know. I don't think it matters now because I don't feel like the Bucks
are gonna need I think the Bucks have enough defensively to be fine. I
don't think they're gonna need this extra scoring punch that he might provide, just
because I think they'll hold Miami so low points wise that it's not like it's
not like you're gonna, Oh, how are we going to get these you
know, six eight, ten extra points a game out of some other position.
I think I think the Heat just don't have enough to make that that
absence or injury matter. All that lunch is it is Miami. I think
you could say this about for a lot of teams, But is Miami sort
of uniquely easy for the Bucks to defend as well? Because when you get
break into the individual matchups, it's and I would guess you know, Jhanis
didn't play against them a ton this season. I only saw, like,
I think, part of one game. You just put him because you have
Brook Lopez who can handle the band responsibilities by and large, and you have
Drew Holiday, you can handle the Jimmy Butler responsibilities by and large, and
you can get away with whether you want to. I wouldn't say like a
Jay Crowder, but if you want to go Javon Carter, if you want
to go with Pat Conaton, or even if Grayson's Allen's healthy, or even
Middleton, you could probably get away with like one of those guys on Hero
for a lot of the time. So Janie just gets to go on Caleb
Martin Or is it max Strus, and that allows Jannis to be honest on
defense, like you're not what are you doing to complicate Jannie's life on defense?
When the Bucks's best lineups are on the floor and the Heat in already
have all these struggles, then on top of it, I just feel like
they're all they don't do anything. I said this, They just put extra
stress on Jannie defensively. I think a couple of other factors too, and
they're kind of related to what she talked about. The size discarpancy is going
to be massive because the Heat play four guards a lot. You know,
it had argenteries, right, four smaller guys. The other thing too,
at depth, is like, so the three bench players that Miami played tonight
where Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, and Kyle Lowry. I I mean,
I just don't think that's gonna be enough. And that's it. They didn't
play anybody else. This is a do or die game, so this is
who they view as their eight best guys. And so presumably Janice is gonna
draw some fouls on auto bio or power forward Jimmy Butler, and so Kevin
Love is gonna have to get in there and then just I don't think Kevin
Love can do anything against Yannis, you know, downhill drive if he's going
to be in there as the rim protector. So I think defending the Rim
could get incredibly difficult very quickly. If the Bucks just forced the Heat to
play. You know, the Heat are gonna be small, period, no
matter what. Because they brought Lowry off the bench, and they brought Martin
off the bench. That's a small forward who's doesn't have a lot of haft
and a point guard who does have a lot of hafted. But but that's
that's not what you need necessarily. So I guess, you know, I
guess there's a way for I don't know the initial matchups to be okay for
Miami, but I just think the size and the depth issues are also just
critical. Even that that's even without Middleton, there's no way the size discrepancy
works to Miami's advantage for their offense. I mean, who's so which of
the which of the Bucks defenders are gonna struggle to cover the Heat shooters in
space? I was gonna well shooters the so the Bucks allowed when Brook Lopez
defended bam ade Baio this season, which was in all four games and it
was for a bunch. They allowed the Heat to scores the team one point
one six points possession, which is pretty high. Is that something to look
at? But then it's to my last point about did you complicate life enough
for you? Honest? That's just sort of your ace in the hole is
all right? We have you? Honest, if Brooke, if bam is
really a problem for Brooke, and I would argue that Brooke is not the
problem in that it's probably maybe the reason that bam Adebayo is making out of
those plays. And then I flip side it back to it. I looked
at this too. The Heat average point nine eight points per possession as a
team whenever Drew Holiday defended Jimmy Butler, And so there's I'm just I'm trying
to just figure out where there could be vulnerabilities for the Bucks against the Heat,
and I don't so let me frame it to you this way before we
get to our predictions. Are you more worried or do the Heat have a
better chance of poking holes in the Bucks with their defense or with their offense?
Is it just very clearly Miami's defense is their best, like slowing the
Bucks offense, turning it into a slog and sort of making them play your
game. I think it's so I can imagine because because I've seen it,
We've seen it Wakee get a little stodgy offensively, you know, in playoff
games where it's just nobody's moving and it gets difficult for them to score and
Jannis is driving into walls and that kind of thing. So, because because
we've seen that, uh, and because we know the Heats defense is actually
just good, it's got to be that. It's got to be the defense.
I think. I think that's that's the key is in a scenario where
Miami wins this series, it's they make the Bucks offense look like the worst
version of itself, and a couple of heat shooters run hot for enough games
to make it happen and maybe, you know, maybe you get a fifty
pointer from Jimmy Butler. We haven't really talked about that. That's not a
strategic thing, that's not a nuanced take, but like he tends to have
one or two of those in them, you know, just a massive playoff
efforts do Like he was fine, he was really good. I was fine.
He was really good. Towards the end of that Bulls game, but
like he turned in about one game and then another three quarters of just not
playoff Jimmy Butler level basketball. Yeah no, And I would say too that
the Bucks are not You mentioned it at the top, like this is with
Vukovich as your primary rim defender, the Bucks have a little more heft in
there to keep Jimmy from making a bunch of layups and you know, pump
fake short jumpers and one type stuff. And I know we didn't do this
for every series, but I just want just because for this series specifically,
if I'm trying to find something that I now that I want to say it's
not compelling, but I really I would be shocked if it. Like,
look, this is in twenty and twenty when the Heat beat the Bucks,
and the following year the Heat got swept by the Bucks. It's basically in
a downhill ever since. And I know they made the conference finals last year,
but they're entering is the eight seed for a reason. Right now?
I think Tyler hero is he too high profile to be an X factor.
I just feel like if you're gonna give up a lot of mid rangers,
the stuff that he can do off the dribble from floata range is gonna be
big, and Jimmy Butler like, we just know, okay, well you
need his rim pressure ability to draw you know, shooting fouls from the like
not near the basket, like from from the mid range, to keep that
aspect of your offense on me. Yeah, for sure, I think Hero.
I thought Hero tonight actually against the Bulls, was was like really,
I'm actually don't even know how many points he scored. He was five or
twelve, twelve points, seven assist, eight rebounds. I was gonna say
I thought he was like really kind of like circumspect. He wasn't. He
wasn't looking to go out there and I'm gonna win this game with you know,
thirty five on my own. He was kind of probing a lot of
probing drives to kind of see what was there and find other shooters. And
I think he was very much a contributor. He passed up a wide open
three very early in that game to get Struce his second three, just to
try to get him going. So I think if he can do some of
that, which is sort of I think against his nature as just a real
bucket getter, and then also capitalize on the Bucks kind of allowing some mid
range looks. Yeah, I think I think he's an X factor that way.
I think he's also an X factor the other way, where I think
he's going to get attacked a lot. And we should also note that,
you know, the Bulls can throw out Patrick Beverly, who was awful over
in this game. In this game and committed every Fouley committed was a dumbfoul
that didn't need to be committed like that. Did you see him leap frog
like bad? So Beverly and Crusoe, Right, that's that's a real strength
in backcourt defense, and the Heat handled that. But congratulations, now you
get Javon Carter and Drew Holiday and there's a backline defense behind him. So
it's like that's gonna only make it tougher on Hero. But you're you're right.
I think I think I would cite him as a real X factor.
Everybody else is kind of a known commodity, and it's gonna be make or
miss for for a lot of the Heats supple. The one interesting thing,
though, real quick, you made me realize that Sam Quinn from CBS tweeted
this just after the matchup was set. I don't know if you saw it,
but the Heat and Bucks have played each other in the postseason three times
twenty thirteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty one. The winner of each
series went on to win the NBA Finals. So whoever wins this series,
Dan book it that they're going all the way to I could buy that,
just because I expect Milwaukee to win the series, and if I if I
had to pick an X factor for them, I think it's Javon Carter,
Like that's someone who could see a lot of time on Tyler Hero. I
could also, I know he's dealing with an ankle injury and I haven't seen
what his status is. I could talk myself into Grayson Allen as well,
just because he might then see some time on Tyler Hero. But mostly that
his outside shooting. If you want to open up the lane for Johannis and
Drew and Chris Middleton and even stuff for Brook Lopez, you want that higher
volume, reliable three point shooter on the floor. Yeah, I could see
this being a Grayson Allen series if he's healthy, because I think he can.
There are enough places for him to hide defensively that you can keep his
shooting on the floor. How many over under on the number of minutes Jake
Growder plays in this series. I'm gonna set it. It's sixteen per game.
I think he I feel like that's about right. I'd probably go I'd
probably go under because I don't think it's gonna be a close series, and
you might just kind of hold him out towards jest. Is gonna be averaging
under thirty? Yeah? Let it well, Yeah, that that seems like
a given. So you want to make picks here? Yes, what do
you have? It's it's just bucks in five. I think they'll be I'm
just I guess I'm pricing in the Jimmy Butler game, you know. Basically,
I think we get one of them and it's in the bucks handle the
other four. Yeah, just going bucks in five. This is this.
We haven't predicted a series sweep yet, and who knows, maybe we'll predict
one in one of the next series we get to. But I'm gonna go
just bucks in. But it's like it's the cowards pick. But they have
Jimmy Butler, and like you said, he could be he have one of
those like fifty point detonation type games and look, if it could be the
game. I don't think it'll be Game one, but it could just be
if Chris Middleton's actually banged up like they're they're just wrinkles that could be thrown
into that. Or maybe there's some variants in the Bucks's half court offense,
like we already discussed. Would you have felt very differently if it had been
the Bulls. Do you think the Heat or a tougher matchup than the Bulls
would have been. I don't because well, towards the end of that Bulls
game, yes, I believe the Heat looked like a better team, but
I just thought the having the perimeter defensive pressure like was more valuable against this
Milwaukee team when you're looking at Caruso if you want to throw Beverly and having
even Patrick Williams to throw it Yannis. Maybe, but I based off what
I saw in the Bulls is win in the first playing game and then what
they kind of did after the trade deadline, I thought they were just the
more exciting matchup from Wolf where like, oh, they might get swept or
losing five anyway, but the games will be closer. I think the Heat
are just better built to survive slogs and create them as well. And so
I don't know where you land on that. Yeah, I was just asking
because I mean, if if Toronto makes a decent number of free throws,
the Bulls just are done anyway. But I had the thought during the game
when it looked a little closer, that you know, maybe maybe Lavine and
DeRozan could just it feels like there's just more offensive punch and the Bulls defense
was good, but I could. I wouldn't have. I mean, I
maybe would have given them a fifth game, just like we were giving the
Heat. I don't I wouldn't have gone six or anything like that with the
Bulls I have. I don't know if I said it, though, I
have Bucks in five as well. So we have Timberwolves versus Denver Nuggets in
Round one. This is interesting to me for a couple of reasons, not
even necessarily a matchup, but the circumstances under which these teams enter. The
Nuggets have like one of the most uninspiring closes to the season, and you
have Michael Malone out there criticizing their effort like every other game at this point,
there was weird stuff, not recently, but with like him and his
use of Michael Porter junior, Michael Malone questioning the tough toughness of his team
and some of some people. I don't know if it was Michael Malone specifically
for someone with the Nuggets, or I saw a writer like ascribing, well,
this had to do with just the discourse around the third MVP, like
Ray Yokus quest for a third MVP. I don't know, and then the
Wolves come in and rugobearts dealing with back spasms. He did look okay against
the thunder. It'd be nice if he could finish through contact every once in
a while. Though they don't have Naz Reid done for the year, they
don't have Jane McDaniels after he punched the wall, also done for the year.
Anton Edwards does not look right. He's still get with him. He
can't hit. It's some with his shoulder, I think, but they also
did like his ankle and like so he's just in pieces. His jumper is
not or has not been falling. He's still been able to get to the
basket, get his euro steps in and he's actually been like I don't think
he's suffered on defense that much, So that would make sense if it's his
shoulder where it's kind of like, all right, maybe it's trouble fighting over
screens, but he can still get in passing lanes. And the fact that
he's I don't want to say he's avoiding his jumper like the play like he
even looked he tossed in like a little push shot against the thunder and it
just looks so awkward, like a borderline painful. So all that like just
like coming in. So these two teams are just like coming in worse for
wear, I guess would be might regument. I know the Wolves are just
coming off a win, but like they blew the double digit lead against the
Lakers in the first playing game. They've blown more double digit leads, I
believe than any other team in the league year. Up my overarching thought coming
in, I'm sure you have. This is the thing I'm most curious about.
I'm sure you have the same one. We did not see the dual
big setup go against Denver this year all four of the games they split the
season series two to two. Karl Anthony Towns was not available for them.
What does that look like? Because we know Yo Kich is there and Rudy
Gobert will be on Yo kitch. I don't think he's built to slow Yo
kitch. I don't think he's necessarily the worst matchup for or Yo kich isn't
the worst matchup for him specifically, either like how do you fit like Karl
Anthony Towns into that equation? Or I'm assuming you're gonna have Aaron Gordon tether
to him, but then like that really limits your options. You have KCP
going after Anthony Edwards at that point, and I'm wondering, just because of
the this is the dilemma I feel like Denver could get into. If the
Wolves stay big, are you gonna be less inclined then to pull a Michael
And I'll say it's Michael Porter Junior. But Aaron Gord's been so bad offensively
of late, so where you're not gonna go a little bit small like Bruce
Brown might help your defense a little bit more against Anthony Edwards than maybe a
KCP could at points, But you're gonna be reticent to pull Michael Porter Junior
for that, just because then you're downsizing by so much. I don't I'm
like stumbling into my words because I feel like the Wolves pose an interesting matchup
dilemma for the Nuggets to where they have to be more careful if they're gonna
take Gordon or Porter Junior out of one of their top lineups. I guess
that's what I'm getting at. It almost feels harder against the Wolves if they're
gonna stay big. We know there'll be plenty of one big minutes, especially
now because Nazrid isn't healthy. But it still feels like it's something and I
don't know how to feel about it. I'm not saying it's an issue for
Denver. I just don't know how to feel about it. Yeah, it's
a big unknown, and certainly in contrast to had it been the Thunder who
just don't play any But it's over six nine. It's such a different setup,
and it's worth unpacking, like how much having like more size than the
Nuggets, how much of a benefit that is versus being smaller and quicker and
more athletic and spacing them out and attacking them that way. But I think
a lot of it is just the unknown. We don't I mean, the
Wolves can't really have much of a much of an idea about how the town's
gobear partnership works against anybody because the sample is still so small, and let
alone against against the Nuggets. I think so just as you're so if if
if you want to take Porter Junior or Gordon off the floor, I honestly
think you might just see more Zeke Nagy, I think you might see it
go the other way. I think maybe you'd see Denver go with a little
more size, because you know, they we've harped on it all year.
They have this. They've allowed the second highest opponent field goal percentage at the
rim. The opponent shoot over seventy percent at the rim, which is just
ridiculous. I'm not saying Zeke Nagy is some you know, cure all for
allowing opponents to score at the rim, But I don't think. I don't
think you get where you need to defensively if you're Denver by going smaller,
because I think that still just needs to be the end of the court that
we focus on. Because Minnesota's got a number eight defense on the year,
but they're about two points one hund possessions. Worse what, they don't have
McDaniels on the floor, and they will not have McDaniels on the floor,
so they're average to slightly below average defense of with just without McDaniels, So
I don't really have any concerns about how the Nuggets are going to score.
However, they can figure their lineup size wise, so I think you might
just try to protect the rim a little better and hope that Edwards still is
not able to kind of beat if it's Brown, if it's if it's Gordon,
if it's KCP, that he's not able to just beat them individually or
make Yoki's work too much in pick and rolls. I think you might want
to more backline help. I don't know it's weird because I don't I don't
think DeAndre Jordan, Well, unless it's Gobert only minutes you're not gonna see
DeAndre Jordan, I don't think for the Nuggets. But yeah, going small
doesn't strike me as as like the way forward, because that's usually what you
do if you need to get some offense on the floor. Do you think
how do you feel about like? Is the Timberwols defense low key? Maybe
easier for Denver to defend because of their struggles the half court with their best
players on the floor and the caveat is I'm basing this one, there's numbers
like they were in the sixth percentile. When Conley, Edwards, Gobert and
Towns play together in half court offensive efficiency, the sample is so small.
He's just throwing it up. But I'm looking at it as Gobert is.
I don't. He's not a liability. He's just a very specific piece on
offense. And you do have Towns back, but like Anthy Edwards is now
banged up, you don't have the leap that kind of Jaden McDaniels did as
year. But you also do have Kyle Anderson or Nikki Alexander. Walker's actually
been playing really well for them. That was another underrated piece of the Conley
trade. And that's the other bigger one here. They just sort of have
Mike Conley floating around, very good ball, mover, connective passer, brings
everything together. Isn't someone that's just gonna roll over on defense, by the
way, And I almost wonder I'd initially thought when I die dug in the
numbers, I was like, this might actually be a team when you see
how vanilla their offense can be where it gets late into the shot clock that
Denver can handle because they're not getting late in the shop clock because they're swinging
the all around. But then you look at them when they get into their
early offense, whether it's Auntie Edwards just attacking or Mike Conley just setting everybody
up, they're really dangerous. And that's without Nasri, that's without Jane McDaniels
too, Like they can still be dangerous doing that. And because I'm not
saying Mike Conley makes all the difference, but like he just sort of you
could, if you're Denver, very quickly run into some mathematical matchup problems just
between towns Auntie Edwards if he's playing well, and then Mike Conley is just
sort of sitting on the floor. And that if Nikki Alexander Walker is gonna
have the type of game he has res providing ball pressure on the defensive end,
probably not hitting his wide open threes, those are very hit or miss
for him, but like putting the defense itself in rotation, which is where
Denver can struggle. I will say the other thing on this broth throwback to
you. Ben Taylor did a great video on Thinking Basketball about how the Nuggets
were trying. He called it peel switching. These different ways of using Nikolio
kitchen the half court to ensure that you're not sacrificing as much ring ring protection
and can kind of exist in a like a state of scramble. So this
a team because of Conley, because of if Na's going to be playing,
even because of Anderson with his deliberateness getting into the lane, and then of
course Anthony Edwards that where that becomes valuable. I don't have a great I
have very strong thoughts about this matchup, and I'm so curious. My strongest
thought is curiosity, and I don't have a great hold unnecessarily how it plays
out. Yeah, I think this is the series where, well I don't
want to overstate it, but I feel like I'm almost as interested in Game
one of this series as I am in any other, like just because like
we're kind of just trying to imagine, right like what this matchup looks like
and where the holes might be, where the pressure points could be. And
Game one I think will tell us a lot. It'll tell us, it'll
answer some of the questions you're asking with respect the lineup and how the Nuggets
defend and upside downsize, you know all that stuff. I just think I'm
trying to like, I'm trying to find this is it's a similar thing for
the for the heat in the Bucks. I'm trying to find ways for Minnesota
to be successful here, and I just am not feeling I don't feel like
so for example, the Nuggets are I want to make sure I get this
right. They're twenty eight and points per one hundred alloud off of live rebounds.
So that's just they're not getting back. It's hard for me if Edwards
is not like the how many times, speaking of you said peel switches,
how many times did Edwards even tonight when he had a better game, have
a have like a one on two or a one on one like semi transition
play and he would just peel off and he wouldn't go with the guy.
He had a couple of nice layups where he really floated the rim, but
he was just not pushing the pace and he was not attacking. And so
if he's going to be the Hugs, they're gonna be bigger than the thunder
two where they have Jalen Williams is just their largest body on the court at
all times right now. Yeah, But but I was gonna say, if
if if he's not going to be that kind of downhill athletic force that pushes
in transition and tries to exploit Denver just not being very good at getting back
act off live rebounds. Then that's not really an area to exploit for Minnesota.
And if you're gonna have go Barton Towns on the floor, you're not.
I mean, Towns can run, can run the floor in a straight
line, but he's not going to push it himself, and so I don't
see that as a way forward for Minnesota's. Okay, see, Towns were
just getting back out running Rudy. He was possessions. Yeah, so well
I'm not saying I'm just it was. It's just so fascinating. So let's
get into them, like just the X factors here. I feel like I
can't even pick one for the Nuggets. I'm gonna say Aaron Gordon because you
don't want to give Karl Anthony Towns a spot to hide, and so you
need Aaron Gordon to do something, whether it's be able to to cut run
off ball or hit his his threes, which he has struggled doing of late.
At the same time, just if they decide to throw the which teams
are reticent to do because you know what happens when you double or throw the
kitchen sicking in Nakoly Yoka. Which's why the double team data where you're looking
at, oh, all these players, look all these doubles, and then
people were will look Yokich isn't on this, like that's another vote against the
prem VP. It's like, no, he's not being doubled. It's not
a vote against him. Be because he was doubled so much. That's an
The amount of times teams throw like eight bodies out of the five players are
on the court and bad it's incredible. But you're not doubling Yokis because he
will cut you up. But I do think this leads me to a Michael
Porter Junior or Jamal Murray? Are those just X factors? At least one
of them needs to have a Monster series and the job isn't going to be
super easy for one of them. Because my guess is I'm assuming Conley's gonna
get plenty of time on Jamal Murray and that you'll see a lot of Anthony
Edwards. Is he going to be on KCP and then kind of kind of
float around or are we going to see him match up with like are they
going to try? And I think Michael Porter Junior is just too good of
a shooter and can at least move with the ball in his hands ring without
the ball hands that you don't want Towns on him. But one of those
guys is basically who I'm looking at. Where it's Jamal Murray or Michael Porter
Junior, I mean preferably both. They need to have a monster offensive series,
not because the Wolves can necessarily shut down Yokich, but because you can't
really trust the rest of the supporting cast right now with the way Bruce Brown
has shot the ball lately, Casey Pasman on sort of a cold shooting streak,
and then everything I mentioned about Aaron Gordon, who, by the way,
people were campaigning to I'm not faulting people at the time. They're like,
Aaron Gordon's kind of a fringe All Star right now, and they just
think like where he finished the season. No, so I think if if
it were, that was ridiculous at the time, I'm sorry because it just
I mean, I know he was shot. He shot the shit out of
the ball to start the year, and everybody was saying, how well He's
not just depending on cutting baseline and getting hit by Yokis for dunks, like
I mean, yeah, pretty much everybody on this team is. I think
if it were me and I'm Minnesota, I would probably put Edwards on Jamal
Murray. And so that's why Murray is kind of my X factor pick because
I think, really, really Murray is the X factor for the Nuggets,
like writ large because him getting back to the point where we weren't sure if
he or Vian Mitchell or Devin Booker were the better player of those three we
always like talked about in conjunction with one another, getting back to that guy
who's you know, putting up multiple whatever it was thirty and forty, you
have a fifty point game in the playoffs like him and him and Mitchell went
back and forth in a series. I think it might have been twenty twenty.
I think Murray needs to dramatically like outplay Edwards and just beat him and
beat him head up. Basically, I don't think he can guard Edwards.
I think Edwards can guard him, but I think if Murray outplays Edwards like
there's just no path, there's no hope for the Wolves. So he would
be my pick on that side. The Wolves are trickier. I mean,
we can't pick Towns right. I would probably because on the same thinking,
Towns is just too good of a player. It's like, yeah, well,
if Towns doesn't play great, then the eighth seed cannot beat the one
seed. But I think he needs to matter a ton on both ends because
he's gonna be asked to do a lot of the you know, covering up
cutters that are and how is it gonna be able to guard a way out
in space and come back and try to shut off some of the passes that
Yokich is getting too guys around the basket. His job is gonna be really
difficult, and it's a part of the game that he's just not historically been
very good at Towns. So I don't know if I call I don't feel
like cheating the calm the X factor, But I think what he's going to
have to do defensively against an offense this good that is going to put a
ton of movement and spacing and activity around Yokich, Like he doesn't like,
You're not gonna put him on Yokich. Gobert's got that assignment, So he's
gonna have to be pretty spectacular defensively, I think to keep the Nuggets from
really just kind of running them out of the gym. Almost default tuny ki
Alexander Walker for the Wolves because it seems like he's going to be the one
that soaks up the most minutes in the absence of Jane McDaniels and also does
his We know what Mike Conley can do already, but does the pressure that
he can provide on the ball or at least getting out in transition, does
that become more important? If Anthony Edwards is playing through like eighty injuries,
is that does that have become more important? He? By the way,
Xander Walker kind of a phenomenal career like reinvention, because I don't if you
remember, he started out as just an unabashed chucker and that was not going
well for him efficiency wise, and then at some point in Utah he just
he just leaned in on defense and he was awesome against the Thunder against SG.
I mean, SG, I still got his but like Alexander Walker has
has the frame and was playing really hard. Like I think it's kind of
amazing that he's gone from what he was too If he sticks in the league,
and I think he definitely will now and that was in some doubt for
a while. It'll be because he can just guard and if he makes shots,
great, but that, yeah, he's I should have mentioned him.
I was saying I would put Edwards on Murray. I think I still would,
especially if Edwards just isn't going to be as big a factor offensively.
But yeah, Alexander Walker, I think is a is a definite, like,
is very interesting option to kind of see if you can get him on
Murray and maybe he can rove a little bit, even even bother Michael Porter
Junior, even though there's a pretty big size size discrepancy there. They and
for what it's worth, in the Denver matchups during the regular season, And
I think I might agree with you with Anti Edwards. I just Kenny does
he have the range of motion on his entire body to stick with Murray.
They did stick him on KCP for most of the time when they played Denver.
So predictions, who do you got in this series? I'm gonna cower
my way through this one too, and just say Nuggets in five. I
think though this one I could see being a sweep more likely than I could
see the one eight in the East, but I think I think Minnesota.
I think Minnesota has enough to get one here. That's that's as far as
they go. I think I'm reading too much into the bad energy in Denver.
I'm gonna go Nuggets in six, and I think Nuggets we have very
vocal Nuggets. I don't know if they're subscribed to us or if they just
find us on YouTube. They and I appreciate everyone I guess who watches and
comments, but they're gonna be We've just gotten angry Nuggets fans at us,
which is just weird because the Nuggets are my title pick is of right now,
Like, well, I move off that based on series matchups, I
don't know. I'm just I could see it being a sweep. I could
see being in five games. Something just feels off about Denver and I think
the other you know, we didn't even really talk about their depth beyond their
top six guys, and you're gonna have to explore it. Depending like Christian
Brown might be super important to this series. If Michael Porter Junior isn't having
a great game, you're looking for a body to maybe throw it at the
Edwards or Aaron Gordon's not having a good game, so you just don't trust
anyone after their top six guys. And if you want to throw Brown in
there, I guess that's fine. And I know depth isn't as important in
the playoffs. This just feels like maybe I'm underrating their their home court advantage.
And they've been good in Denver all year, of course, and they
clearly have the best player in this series. I just something feels off there.
So nothing feels off about the Timberwolves. See you guys in each other.
I'm gonna go, I'm just yeah, all right, that's fair.
Nuggets in five they don't have Jaden McDaniels, and like, I'm not factoring
that in enough nuggets in five. The biggest nuggets in five for me?
Do you want to take us out of here? After we said we were
gonna do so ten minutes on each series and we did twenty on each series.
Well, a two to one promise to delivery ratio is pretty good for
us. Yeah, So everybody, thanks for listening. Like great review,
Subscribe, follow us on socials, tell your friends, tell your enemies,
Enjoy the playoffs. Man, the playoffs starts tomorrow. I'm pumped. I
can't wait. I'm really excited. We will reconvene frequently to give you more
incredible content that hopefully has a little more drama than a couple of one versus
eight matchups. But as always, we close with a shout out to the
one and only frank n Lakina and also an apology to Jared Allen.