For thirty five years, Cindy Stumpo has been a female homebuilder with a passion
for design, a mastery of detail, and a commitment to her crack.
With daughter Samantha Stumpo by her side, I don't need my whole family on
a date with me. That's a good note. It's goddemn weird. See.
Stumpo Development is the only second generation female construction company in the country.
You're crazy, You're a wacko, You're insane. I mean, it just
doesn't end together. Cindy and Samantha welcome guests to explore the world of construction,
real estate, development, design and more. Unpredictable. Every time I
think I know what you want, you switch it out. But that's what
makes sure houses all your They discuss anything that happens between the roof and the
foundation. Nothing is off limits. You truly do care about everybody. She
can yell and you get screen, but when you get her alone, she's
the best person on the planet. Cindy Stumpo is tough as nails. Yeah,
welcome to Cindy Stumpo Toughest Nails on WBZ. Who's Radio ten thirty and
I'm in do tonight with I'm not introducing another person, go me too,
please? Where with Sean and Tyler? Do they have last names? Do
we know who they are? They like little ghost people? Like what are
they? They're like my besties. I talk to them all the time.
Well, do they have last names? They can introduce themselves. Oh okay,
go ahead. Oh no, I can go with the first name only.
I'm like Seal in the New Generation. But okay, I'm cool.
But no, I'm Tyler Wnder of TV Winder and Winder Capital and developer,
lender and broker here in Boston. So what is this? What is the
developer? Do you? If you don't mind me asking this new generation?
How old you thirty one? Okay? Your baby baby? What does the
developer mean to you? Buy a property, add value to it and sell
it. Wow, things change in my in the generations. That's what developers
to you? Right? So what am I? You're a developer? Mm
hmmm, which means it means you're you're buying land, You're buying property,
You're tearing it down, you're adding the value to it and selling it.
If the numbers work for the rental and that's what your ex is, then
you hold on It's the difference between what you call developer and what we've called
developers is we bought the land, we self perform the buildouts, and we
made a development fee and a construction fee. That's what that was all about,
right now, developers, We were builders, right, but today developers
and money guys most likely. And then they got to hire some schmagigy like
me to come and do all the hot lifting, right most likely. Okay,
and then you're gonna hope this the schmagigy like me doesn't hurt your pockets,
right. I just want to stick with that word McGahee for a while.
That's what it was. If we got a good sch mcgahey and then
hopefully everyone makes a little bit of money at the end of the day,
and then you hope that schmaghy doesn't take you down with them. Yeah,
sure, hope So because as large mcgigi's out there right now, so we'll
just get like a watch list of the do not work with smagige. Yeah,
I think we need a schmaghigi list, okay, and like just get
rid of them. Smart. Do you notice that it's going to be harder
for your generation to find good solid dudes? Out here and women, right,
I haven't worked with women, so thirty six years, I see one
here popping in and popping out here and there. But do you notice that
it's hard to get more better skilled labor guys out here? Then again,
what would you know, because you wouldn't know what it's like to work in
the real world back in the day. One thousand percent. No, And
I and who I learned from when I got into this business are the you
know, developers from the late eighties, early nineties gcs who worked through the
eighties nineties. Well, then that would be me. So I'm learning through
you know, people like yourself, the baby boomers. The baby boomers,
by the way, last year, don't push it. What's that I'm in
the last year? The baby boomers, don't push it. You want to
said it, I'm not allowed to say that. She's turning. Oh shut
o'p already with that number. I swear if I have to age, you
have to age? No, you keep aging. I'm not aging, So
you'll you do have two years in one month. Though you do listen to
the older guys. You have to. I don't listen to your generation.
I didn't go to I didn't go to school with it. It was kind
of self taught and then you know, learned from people who've done it over
the last twenty thirty five forty years. Okay, follow the lade, trust
me, you got all of them. Just don't follow the ego maniac ones.
You know, the ones that have been up and down, like what's
the word yo? Yo's thirty six years c Stumble is still in business.
We've never been another name, we've never gone bankrupt with the same company from
day one, and we've never been sued by an end user of vendor,
a subcontractor. That's what you look for when you're hiring a builder for your
development. Got it beautiful? Seriously, like go through it all? All
right? So but you're still doing hot money lending. So with that being
said, what are you charging right now? And all I know it all
varies. So let's let's play. Let's play a game here right now.
You're and I yeah, all right, I need a fast closing two million.
I only want it in ninety days. Where we going Most likely you're
going to start off at twelve and two when Sean gets around. So dumb
it down so people understand because we're in the business. So a twelve percent
interest rate in two points at closing one point resembles one percent of the total
loan amount. That's pretty much your standard what you'll see. And again when
Shawn's up here talking, he's going to talk a little bit different. The
quicker the clothes, the less track record of of a barrow, where the
less cash a barrower may have, that twelve and two is going to adjust
accordingly. But if we're going to use that twelve percent interest rate two points
as a close, that's going to be your best way to kind of underwrite
a deal of kill hard money. And now the guy needs you to carry
him through construction loan. What's up? Now, let's say, let's change
it up. I'm coming to you for two million, and the two million
is to buy the property. Right, I'll put the twenty percent down finance
a property. The whole thing comes to two million. We're going to just
compare apples taples. What's the indust rate then, Now, knowing you're going
out a year or two years with a guy, if you're in hard money,
you're still going to be looking at the twelve percent and two points.
I mean, if it's a four year progress, So you don't want more
money knowing that you're going to go longer and you're speculating with them. The
only thing that we really will care about at the end of the day is
what is our risk parameter set? At what point are we losing breaking even
or we're crossing over that risk threshold. So if it's a four year project,
we're going to be looking at it. It's like, all right,
here's a four year carry, here's where costs are. We still better be
below that, you know, seventy percent loan to the after repair value.
Basically, you want thirty percent down on your clients. Not necessarily thirty percent
down, but we want to have that thirty percent margin on the back.
What's a downstroke on two million? Downstroke meaning Okay, I'm paying three hundred
thousand for the land and I need a million seven for the construction. I'm
just using numbers like we can just play, so use most like you're going
to say, how about this one better. I'm paying a million for the
land, yeah, and I'm paying a million in construction. What are you
giving me? So right off the bat, if you' putting twenty percent down,
you're going to get an eight hundred thousand dollars acquisition loan, and then
a million dollars is basically going to be sitting on the sideline ready to reimburse
you through constructions. A little funny though, you the banks, you're all
funny. I love that game. You guys put the money out, then
we'll rEFInd you after the job is done. Yeah, that's kind of crazy
because that's what gets guys into trouble because they don't have the money to fund
and put out and then we have to wait for you guys to come out
and mister banker to come out to say, oh, yeah, you did
this, this, this, this, this, So when you're out there
building, I have to have millions, not one hundreds of thousands if I'm
going to take instructional money to carry these guys because they want to get paid
right away, and a lot of like our guys, they come in weekly,
right, so they want to be paid weekly. So we pay the
performance and then you guys step in after work is done. Okay, here's
a check. So when you sit down, do you explain to your clients,
like, you got to have two hundred thousand whatever the bank to start
the process. Do they comprehend that or they just powing had on the site
work, and that's where the numbers get put in there to carry them.
You make it up through draws. So if you don't have as much capital,
I get it all set. You're going to juice up what you're doing
at the beginning of course to approve. You know when you're being juiced up,
Yeah, you know, good sent Yeah, I mean, we're all
a part of the business. We've seen enough loans, we've done enough loans,
we've seen enough projects successful, unsuccessful, struggled. We're going to go
through all of those and we're going to have an idea. So we're going
to see something's thirty percent higher than what it is. We're going to raise
some flags. So here's the crazy part when you really think about it.
They're borrowing construction money from you. They're paying the interest of the construction loan.
Then they're paying interest on interest. Mostly you're going to be looking at
a per draw interest rate. Okay, that doesn't matter. If so,
if it's a million dollars sitting on the sideline, you need one hundred thousand
dollars for process the project, and they brought five hundred thousand. They're paying
the interest back to you with your own money. You know that from construction
on right, So that means they're paying interest on interest, is what I'm
just saying. Like, dude, I ain't paying you interest on interest too,
Like you got to have some cap in my brain, but I'm old
school, Like my brain says I better have this much money back when I
was twenty three, twenty four, twenty five to carry the juice follow me.
I don't want to pay you interest on interest. It just something sounded
so crazy about that. Oh you're getting good, you're coming on the twenty
three second mark. I like that. What's that? A good? It's
all good? All right, So we're gonna all hold that thought. When
we go to break from city stumping. We got say Tapes Nails on WBZ
News Radio ten thirty sponsored by Floor and Decor, National Lumber and Village Bank.
Just written it all and welcome back to WBZ News Radio ten thirty.
Tepes Nails City STUMPO. Okay, Sean, we heard Tyler's opinion. Now
here's here's my question to you. Why is it called the construction little money?
But we don't get the money till after we do construction. Can you
introduce himself? Oh, I'm sorry, can you introduce your stuff? Go
ahead, and let's start. Give you a little bit of background. So
John Kelly Ran, managing partner of ore the Advisors. We're a real estate
private lender in the Boston area. Quick background, So you know we talked
about construction, we talk about builders. Well, I grew up My father
was a carpenter. My mother was a realtor selling foreclosures in Boston. So
you know, I've been on job sites for how a long time? Forty
five? Okay, my shoulder, you have the baby. I've been around.
I've worked with my uncle in construction, so I spent my summers in
DC working with t J. Rand Construction. So I come at the lending
side from a kind of construction builder's first side. And then, you know,
after kind of doing this and growing up in this, I went into
real estate private equity and real estate investment banking, and then came back to
Boston seven years ago to set up our own real estate private lending business to
kind of bring some of this private equity and kind of Wall Street you know,
kind of money and philosophy back to Main Street. So you know,
how we position ourselves in the market dealing with builders is we're a non bank
lender for bankable clients that have projects that just don't fit into the bank box.
And a lot of that has to do with timing. So the clients
that are coming to me are not the clients that are saying, hey,
I have no money and I have no credit. That that's not my client
and they're not clients. So my clients are typically builders that are financiable.
And this is not for every single one, but typically so they're financibal so
they can get bank financing and they choose not to because of either speed.
So you're buying something at auction and you have less than thirty days to close.
Oh yeah, because we mind so much an auction last five six years
here in messages, Yeah, well go ahead. Or you're buying something and
you're a competitive bid process and they're bidding against you, and you know they're
going there and they say, well, I can send it, sell to
city somepo or who's getting bank financing, or I can sell to this builder
or actually check who's going to close in ten days and they're going to have
to come to us in order to be more competitive because the seller is not
going to wait forty five days or ninety days for bank to close, and
so that there end up need to go to somebody for speed, and so
it's a performance product, it's not necessarily a product there. And then where
we are today is just looking at the environments are banks aren't as active as
they used to be, and banks are pulling back, especially on the margins,
on the construction projects and the build projects and not everything. They're not
not on all builders, but not on all builds. Right. They are
still with the sophisticated builders, they're still taking care of one. But the
guys that are not tasting their own blood a little bit, they get nervous
of those guys. And we're not lending to those guys either, right,
So that that's not our market. But we are doing things where we'll close
on an office to REZI conversion. Right. So I'm looking at office buildings
now downtown I'm looking at but not all can be converted, but some can,
and you need to move fast on those that can, be right,
And so we're trying to deal with the clients that need a product for speed,
not because they can't get a bank loan, and sometimes we're there,
we do the fast closing and then we get taken out by a bank loan.
That's for that and a matter of how much time it can be anywhere
from we've done loans as quick as you know, been paid back and as
quick as a week pre penalty, no penalties, and that's why they work
with us. We're cheaper than bank financing when you take into account like a
five percent pre payment penalty. And that's the norm for high money guys that
there's no pre payment. No that usually is is there usually a pre penalty
with you high I don't know. I don't I don't know. You know,
I don't see it tons of it to you know. I think there's
probably some guys will do hey, you know it's three months minimum or certain
minimum period, but most of them it's there's It seems like the guys I've
talked that do that is because the points spread on the other end, they'll
charge them a lower interest rate, but they get them on the other way.
They get them, They get them walking out the door, not coming
in the door. Maybe I see that as more bank financing the way it
goes. But if banks are doing charging three, four or five hundred basis
points over if you're only two percent more, so why go to a bank?
I mean that and that's some of our So they had ones to pay
the ten percent, then by the twelve and the nines. I mean then
come on, look at we know one thing in our business, in any
business around a long time, right Like, it doesn't matter if my commodity
is construction. We all know what brings you down to your knees in business,
and that's called interest. I don't care if you're in a Mama Pop
Pizza place and you got to line the credit here and a ligne of credit
there. Look at the look look at the how how we're servicing the debt
nock country, right at the interest rates that we're paying. And I would
say that the deal if it works for a bank loan today, and it
works for a private lender, then the deal works. We run the numbers
ourselves, and that's one of the things. We have no originators on our
team. There's not a single salesperson on my team. I'm not you're on
top of that. Looking we're not looking for going out actively soliciting clients in
that way, right, People come to us because they have a project and
they're going to earn a margin on it. And I think as a builder,
you should be targeting at least a twenty percent margin. And so if
you're not making a twenty percent margin on the project, if you're making a
twenty percent margin on the project, you can afford twelve percent as your cost
to capital on the dead side. If you're not making a twenty percent margin
on it, then you're paying too much for the project, and you shouldn't
do it. And if you don't have and I think people should, and
this is an industry thing. Okay, let me bring you back. How
many guys in the last three years, when prices would absolutely berserk on them
and they didn't see it coming, had to come back to for more money.
Not that many, that's insane. I would say number went from three
or five, from three or five to three fifty five a linuar foot to
eighteen eighteen fifty little foot lineal foot by twenty twenty one. If you were
in the middle of a project and you were buying lumber, you got schmeckls.
So if they had an advance from you, let's say one hundred grand
for a frame, and the frame went up to four hundred thousand. Who
was covering the difference. But let's let's look at it this way, right.
So one of the things about private lending very different than a bank loan.
And one of the things that we look at our loans are our loans
are short termed, they're twelve months. Why do we do that? We
do it? We do it. We're not taking on projects or you know,
if a borrow comes to us and says, hey, I've got a
three year project and this is going to take three years, I'll say I'm
probably not the right lender for you. You really want to go to a
bank or you want to go another lender, because we don't have that visibility
on cost and sales prices as well three years from dow as we do twelve
months from now. And so your point about lumber is the next one.
But we did have that in that period that two years. We're getting hit
with everything. But if somebody's closing, right, it's a twelve month loan,
so we're probably doing you know, if it's a two year project,
we're not doing that project, right, that's not our But even in a
year project, they're buying their lumber. They're signing up their lumber the day
you know, after they're closing. They're getting in there and getting lumber price
in delivery. It's not twelve months later you're getting your lumber. You're getting
your lumber at the beginning of the project, not the end of the project.
Right, I hopefully waiting twelve months. I can guarantee that any loans
that you were writing for new construction guys in that period, they came up
with the money. Whether they didn't come back to you, they had to
come up with a difference of money because everything was up. Well here's everything,
here's what we did see. So one of the things that was up
right, so very interesting in that period is prices and construction costs were up.
Right. Price to acquire the property was up, but also the end
product, the value shot up in a period of time, and that and
that you know, we you know, talk about this forever, But that
bailed out a lot of guys, right, correct, You know, a
lot of people got bailed But that's not happening right now. That's not happening
now. So the numbers are up, but we're still only pulling a certain
number on the other side, so it's not matching. So the spreads.
Look, I'm in a very niche market, so I don't pay attention.
I'm not concerned. Right, But for the guy that's entry level, let's
say three and a half four million in new Massachusetts, right, he's the
guy that can go down faster than anybody because it's entry level. That's kind
of that's a new number for a new construction. That is crazy. And
what town Newton? Two Oh, there's no two million. Not a single
family, not a single family, not in the nice part, not the
nice part you might be an in. Yeah, seven thousand square foot lot
on Comma Averge. Yeah, not very new. But it's crazy. I
mean it's crazy where prices are. I find that absurd growing. I mean
I grew up a very modest income family to think about like what but which
where Jamaica Plane in Roxbury? Okay. So again, when I hear you
know, Newton's not affordable, Brookline's not affordable West and what it never was?
It never was. So I'm so sick of hearing it because it's all
I just laughed. It's like the craziest conversation I have with people all the
time. My parents went from our twelve thirteen thousand square twelve thirteen thousand brand
new house they paid for West Pevity in nineteen sixty four, in sixty four,
sixty five and seventy eight they pulled I want to say, twenty thousand
for that house and moved to Newton and paid ninety something ninety nine. Was
that affordable? No pee? But he was affordable? Newton won and the
only and the guy was ritally asking like one forty They moved dollars furniture out
and he just every he just took a beat. It was nineteen seventy eight
was some bad times anyways. And but again, what where's that affordable?
We are when you're leaving wes poebe at a house that you're into for next
to nothing, and you moved to Newton and you're one hundred and plus thousand
dollars more, right or whatever? The number of different than Boston area housing
is absurdly expensive and it's only going up. And we can't talk about that
too. Hold that thought, I'm sitting stumpointing was to his nails on WBZ
and his ready at ten third sponsored by Pillow Windows of Boston. Next day
molding and Kennedy Carpet in the morning, and I'll come back to tenness sales
on WBZ News Radio ten thirty and I'm Cindy and I'm here with who,
Mantha Tyler and Seon. Okay, finish up with you saying Boddy Austin's expensive
and it's only getting more expensive, and it's hard to build, and it's
getting more expensive to build. It's tough out there. I get it.
So let's go there. Why do you think we're in the housing crisis that
we are now? I think because it's so. I think there's so much
red tape on building, and I think it's so. We've had red tape
for fifteen years. We've had red tape for a lot longer than that.
There used to be a time I could build anything one as long as I
fit my side, setbacks, rear and front period and the story height restrictions.
Non far Non, it's not the problem. The problem was. And
I set us on Bloomberg Radio in twenty eleven. When you stop building for
three four years and we're only in eleventh of time. We missed eight,
nine, ten, we're already three and a half years before I went on
too Bloomberg Radio when they said, Cindy and I started going right over their
heads. How did you think this was not going to catch up on us?
Many states? Everything closed down like take Florida, like every excavator stopped,
everything stopped. Mass a little bit different. We're still building, just
took longer to sell. Right, So we're kind of cushioned here, But
we can't judge that across the whole entire country. You are we're going to
catch up on a housing problem within a decade that was dead on on that
one. And the other problem is here here. Here's where we are right
now, is that you have a I think you're short about seven million houses
in the country right now. Now. You want us developers and builders to
go out there gamble every day, right, think about this, and we
got to pay crazy interest rates, crazy number for product and crazy numbers for
skill gap labor. Right every think about this. For every fifty guys that
are going out, the average age of a contractor is fifty years old.
That is a true fact. Whether there's plumbing, electrical sman, whatever,
fifty is the average age. Every fifty that go out, one's coming in.
Every fifty that go out, to retirement or death. One's coming in.
That's not a good ratio of numbers, right, that's not how it
works. Fifty go out, fifty should be coming in. Fifty go out.
Give me thirty back in, give me fifty, give me seven,
give me ten, depending on the trades. Some we are getting seven seven
back in. But here's your trifector. Here is I said money's expensive.
It's not used to being you used to hear. Oh, it's all on
how you buy. Right, it's the bye. It's not bye, it's
on the buy. It's not on the buy anymore. We gotta pay what
we gotta pay. Period. End of story. No one's giving away their
product anymore. Right, and then numbers just keep going up. So how
does it become affordable. It's not going to become affordable because we don't know
what the new norm is going to be. Number one, We don't know
where product's gonna level. We make this inflation curve. Maybe June comes out
again with a better report, Maybe we'll drop one or two. You know,
we'll have I don't know. You're looking at me like I don't think
so, Cindy, okay, one one point twenty five. But that's not
going to change the needle. It's not going to change the needle. But
remember, the stock market looks into the future. For whatever reason, the
stock market is up at all time high Friday of four hundred. What are
they seeing that we're not seeing, right, They're seeing a stable economy.
I don't know what they're thing. I could say to you, they're overflated.
I don't know. This is our thirty six years. This is something
I've never seen before. I mean personally, I think we should be in
a precession, depression and everything else that comes with it. We haven't figured
out why we booming right? Why? Why? Why? Why? Okay,
So I just think that this window of opportunity right now is right here,
and I'm taking full advantage of this window, meaning I got no competition
that's stepping in. I'm going out and buying everything I can buy, because
when that window closes again and interest rates do drop, there's gonna be ten
office again in every house. There comes to the game again. So how
I look at this and if people are listening, hope they're listening, really
well, if I buy as an end user, right, we'll get back
into your hot money for a minute. But I just wanted to go here.
If I buy a product today and I can find a way to carry
the difference in the interest rate as a young you're thirty one, Well what
does that mean? Well, I can't go off for dinner every night.
I got to slow down my lifestyle a little bit for the next year,
not a vacation, cut back on things that need to be cut back on.
Carry the rate when you run the numbers from what you're going to pay
in the difference, So you're not going back to two, three four percent.
That's done. Guys, that's not ever happening in my lifetime, your
lifetime seeing me. That's never going to happen. But let's get back to
something that's fear fives and the fives. Okay. So if people have locked
in mortgages between three and a half four and a half, four point seventy
five, okay, they can swallow that. They can swallow it. The
buyers will come back out. If you take the difference of spread to your
brain things you're going which you're not going to three and a half percent.
So folks, get that out of your head. You know it's to fall
down again in real estate to come tumbling down again. It's not gonna be
the old market. That's not gonna happen again. But if you lay out
the difference of the spread of let's say, okay, if it gets back
to normal, it's five and a quarter, let's say five and a half,
right, and not six point seventy five or wherever we are right now,
wail the difference every month. I promise you you'll be cheap on the
interest rate. Then you will be when this ten off is coming and the
product's going again eighty ninety one hundred thousand dollars over asking price. Just see
how I see things. No makes sense. So if more people understood that,
they'd be less afraid to buy, you're gonna be it's always where it
goes. You're gonna spend it here or there. You're gonna spend it on
the interest rate, or you're gonna spend it on overpaying for products. You
can't forget that we're seven million houses still short. That you know we haven't
caught up to that. Now you're pulling back on developers again because a lot
of us have pulled permits that we're not going to ever build out. We're
trying to flip the deals. I'm me not I'm not flipping anything. But
I'm saying I use the word we because I have a mouse in my pocket,
I guess, But I'm talking to the average guy there. When you
start checking Brookline, Newton, Revere, at Chelsea, I don't care where
you go. Massachusetts, and again we're in thirty plus states here, but
let's talk about Massachusetts. You speak to the building departments because I've called them,
Hey, how many permits for new construction? Fifteen? Fifteen? No,
fifteen altogether, Cindy, what does that mean? Decks, bathroom,
kitchen? No? How many new building permits have pulled from ground up?
Three? Four? They were getting fifteen a day. You see where I'm
going with this, No think, and that's in a month. So there's
a slowdown right there. You see the slowdown happening. I see it,
and I think there's anything But that's okay. But now if you take the
seven million houses was short and you add the slow down again, seven million
will grow to nine million overnight. All I'm saying, yeah, there's a
massive need for housing. Correct, let's talk about greater Boston area, but
nationally, but coction is huge and it's very hard to build and we need
to loosen the restrictions on builders. Okay, let's gold there, right,
and let's be clear that a lot of the restrictions that are on builders in
terms of regulations, in terms of building code, they kill the cost.
Right. So we sat down. What it does is it makes us builders
carry something for a year longer, pay the interest, pay the insurance,
and paying the taxes because you get our hands tied behind our backs like it
all times. And then special permit ZBA, the design review blah blah blah.
Then we the market going to be and then affordability code absolutely and so
you make it. I mean we brought it in. And then affordable housing.
We brought in ten builders into our office, sat down through a destruction
project up on the screen. It happened to be one of the developments that
we had personally, and said, let's go line by line on what your
build costs are. You know, what is it going to cost you for
framing on this, what is it going to cost you? And where are
my savings? And we went through this and we went through, you know,
dollar by dollar, looking at it with every single builder, with all
those guys in there and you couldn't come up with savings. With all your
guys in there, I would rip that apot in five minutes and tell you
you're going to be over budget, over budget, over budget, over budget,
over budget, over budget. We have not brought a project in.
I never brought my quick books, my Excel, spreadsheets, all my software.
That's my bible for building. Since COVID, we are over in every
buildout. We've never come in under budget or to budget. And here's the
issue is that that never happens by the way. You know, you talk
about the Brooklines, the Newtons of the world, you can still build those
budgets. You go to the rest of the market and you talk about the
media and income, and you look at the build cost forget, if you
get the land for free, you look at the build costs and the affordable
bad work it. You can't build it, and so you're gonna have a
massive shortage of housing in a lot of these neighborhoods that need it the most.
Okay, So if you listen to me in xpaces and clubhouse and social
audio devices, I say this to people, if you gave me the land
for free, the numbers don't pencil out period, end the story. Don't
call me on these deals I'm looking at right now coming through our office.
I don't know I'm getting fifteen eighteen deals. The last time I saw fifteen
eighteen deals, it's been nine years since the eleven ten eleven market. So
what I'm saying is, you guys are only gonna get busier, and I'm
only gonna be able to name my tune because it is what it is,
right, So we're not gonna be afraid. We're gonna be very careful how
we maneuver this market because this is something none of us have ever seen.
Hold that I thought. I'm Sidney Stumple and you listen to Toughest Nails on
WBZ News Radio Temper sponsored by Newbrook Realty Group, Boston, would Smaller Insurance
World Auto Body and Tosca Drive Auto Body and welcome back to Taba's Nails on
WBZ News Radio ten thirty. And I don't care if you don't know who
I am by now, then you shouldn't been listening to my show. What's
your name, Samantha? Okay, you're Tyler Winder? Okay, Sean Kelly
ran all right. So we just had a conversation. Now give me your
abuse of what I just said. You can say, Cindya dead wrong.
No, I think the one risk and speak careful when you say I'm dead
wrong. Okay, I'm never dead wrong, but go ahead. I'm still
waiting for Cindy to come to me for a loan. I'm waiting for that
dec It's gonna happen, Sam, it's gonna happen. That deal is gonna
come up. And you're like, we're in the middle of these projects.
It's such a good deal. Who is sophisticated can close this in ten days
get it done? And I hope that I'm the one you can. Then
I'm want to beat you down on your weight so you don't want me.
You're not I am because you're gonna want that deal so bad because there's gonna
be so much margin in it, and you're gonna be like, Wow,
this is an amazing deal and it goes Cindy, do you want the deal
that means I have to run out of money? Right? I don't know.
You know that could happen. It could be you could be doing so
many projects because what we talked about is right, there's gonna be so much
to build. I told you in fifty nine. Yeah, but somebody's got
to take it over, and somebody's gonna be doing a lot of projects,
a lot of energy. Go talk to miss Brunette. Yeah, she should
be running this company by now. I know a thousand percent. She's got
everything it takes to run this company. She just doesn't like to chase the
guys all day. And I get it, you know what I mean.
I'm just used to that. She but she's sweets all the time now,
like I can't stop her from swearing she's a sailor. She is. Please
tell her it's not very nice. Uh, Sam, that's not very nice.
Let's go, well you should because it doesn't. It works coming out
of my mouth, but it doesn't work coming out of her mouth. We'll
send me tell her that, please. Oh your mom just said it should
listen to me. Go ahead, you can tell me where I'm wrong.
So I think in the economic environment, we're were talking about rates, right.
Every builder, every developer, every real estate person is talking about rates,
and I think let's not play with rates, right, Let's not go
out and build, Let's not buy things with the idea that rates are coming
down. Anytime soon. And I think that the risk is that people are
going to say, hey, rates are coming down soon. You're going to
serve us to death this country at those rates. It's a problem, right,
But I think you can be right rates are gonna come down, but
you can be vastly wrong on time. And so I I don't know right,
and we're not gonna We're not. But is it going to be twenty
five bases fifty basis points in a year? You're gonna get one percent in
a year? Does it matter? Is one percent going to matter? Does
it mean that mortgage rates come down? And then you have to ask your
question yourself, the question why are rates coming down? Are rates coming down
because inflation's coming down because the government rate does all the time and goes this,
Oops, we made a mistake the rates we made a mistake. Or
do the rates come down because the economy goes down and they need to lower
the rate to save the economy. Is it is it a rates falling because
inflation is falling? Or is rates falling because employment is falling and unemployment is
rising vat sleep And so then then if you look at that picure, I'm
not a conspiracy person by no means. But if you think I believe the
data or anything anymore, I don't. So let's get that straight. There's
a lot of people unemployed that has stopped collecting unemployment, so I'm not gonna
have real data numbers here. Okay, that's the truth. So I think
we have a two speed economy. I think we have a lot of people
that are doing very very well. And I think if you look in the
data, and if you go back and and you know, I do a
lot of this on social media. LinkedIn is my place. People who follow
me, I'll see it. I comment a lot on on the economy.
Well, I'm coming after you on LinkedIn. Then I'm gonna yeah, come
on, let's go. Let's go out to bat. And I think one
of the things that's out there, and its reason is, hey, if
you look in in the data, if you follow the bank data, so
mortgage delinquency, I need them on xpaces with me. Remind me of that
place. Go ahead, the mortgage delinquencies on the edges. So faha right,
So the faha loans the language is a certain spike. If you look
at car loan delinquencies, they're going up. If you look at credit card
delinquencies, they're going up. So something in that consumer on that end is
not going well, right, and so is a commercial. And then if
you look at the commercial real sex, and then you look at the then
you look at the down Joe's it's up for I mean, it's just crazy.
And so you ask yourself, is everything going well or have we reached
have we gone to a point that we've said, hey, it was going
well, and it's carrying on past the edge of the cliff, and we're
now looking and saying, you know what, the momentum is carrying us forward,
but the fundamental economy overall isn't as doing as well as people are looking
at. And that's why as lenders and we say, hey, what is
there I look at as a lender as an investment position, right, and
why am I lending? Why I'm lending because it's a defensive role. So
our investors and we're investing on behalf of our investors. We see it as
more defensive than going out and building ourselves right and being an equity investors.
And that's because we look out the economy and we say, hey, it
doesn't look as rosy to us as it does looking at the Dow, and
we think people need to be defensive, and I think people need to look
at that and start saying, hey, you know what, we need to
proceed with caution. So okay, so everything you just said, just dumb
it down. Now, dumb down everything you just said, because sometimes we
talk over people's heads and they're not grasping. I think the economy is not
doing as well as it shows and the figures greed and I think the same
page on that one. We are, but a lot of people aren't.
No, and I think people think there's a rosier view than maybe they should.
And I think people need to proceed. I'm not saying you need to
save money for a ready day. Just save money. Oh he's the cheapest
person in the world. Thanks for bringing that in. He's a Libra.
Okay, I'm I'm a thirty one year old Libra. Every dollar I get
goes right back into the business. Okay, So you save money for rain
day, you or you reinvested in, reinvested in. But you're stupid,
right, try not to Okay, walks around holding his sock. I'm just
trying to make it's a whole time. He had something he's getting very personal
talking about Okay, I like, guys, what Nana does, It doesn't
matter. You save for a rainy day with the coffee cup. Then I'm
just trying to explain to Samantha, like you, just if you make a
million, doesn't mean you spend eight hundred. Okay, how about spending five
hundred? Make a million, given a load to the government, and then
I don't know, there's not eight hundred left. That's true too, right,
So make a million, you give a five hundred, right, done,
and then go get some property tax in there. And okay, but
I mean all time in so if we're looking to dumb everything down, you
look at everything at a very mich does that mean CALLI youre as dumb as
me because I like the dumb things. Now. I can't answer that as
I'm as dumb as I am. Right now, We'll just stay right.
Either of you are dumb people. You simplify everything, and you look and
when twenty twenty one where they dropped everything and it was zero percent interest rate,
it was the dumbest thing you could possibly done for the financials and the
government. Moving forward where three years later and you're seeing the affordability spike,
right, so rates go down to zero, mortgage rates go down to practically
and that right there, right there, what you're talking about right now is
why the guys that have been in the business for the last seven years are
tasting their own blood right now, and they don't know how to maneuver.
They've they never felt this before. So they were all like ah deers with
headlights coming at them. I'm laughing because I've had deal with I've been a
deal with headlights for thirty six years. Eighty seven, eighty eight, eighty
nine, ninety ninety one, Market ninety seven was a hiccup two thousand and
eight. I've seen this movie, and I know how to maneuver around this
movie. But your generation, oh yeah, things are going to great.
Real estate's gonna stay great for twenty years, body stopped. There's always something
that breaks us down. We just never know what it's going to be.
And we had the longest real estate run I've ever seen in thirty six years.
Yep. We literally had twelve year run, a twelve year run where
things have been great. Something's gonna slow this down. Well, you look
at you look at the two things of so by the way I believe that
young guys at a cocky need to taste their own blood right now. And
is it bothering me? Absolutely not, because they need to. You know
why, you don't know good times to your felt bad times. You don't
appreciate good times to you felt bad times, and vice versa. And by
the way, bad times checks your ego right back at the door real fast,
and you hope you'll never forget that. I've never forgot those days when
I tasted my own blood, right So, I just think there's a little
bit of blood tastes that's gonna get taken care of out there, and then
they'll come back and maybe do things a little smarter. Everybody wants to be
the biggest, and everyone wants this overnight. They want to be very,
very wealthy in five years, and a lot did get wealthy in five years.
The questions will sustain because the bigger your balls are, you're going to
stay with that mentality, and that mentality is going to take you down at
some point. Just watch, like, look around you, look around you.
I'm not gonna be wrong here. Yep, it was happening my generation
is gonna happen in your generation. Me. I was smart. I watched
all the other guys. What did they do wrong? So I don't do
this wrong at twenty three, twenty four, twenty five, then I saw
it. I figured out they were over leveraged and underfunded. Wow, two
crazy words. Over leveraged and underfunded, and we're right there right now again.
These guys are underfunded and they're overleveraged, and there's no more robbing Peter
to pay Paul. So they have four houses sitting. The banks are shutting
them down, saying you're not getting a fifth because the fourth one carried the
interest on the first. The other three follow I'm saying, yep, so
look for another deal to pull the money to carry your interest loan. And
they're out shopping other deals, and then eventually the bank says, until you
move one or two projects, we're not taking you on against they go to
another bank. You guys, I'm just saying, what's been for thirty six
years? You can tell me what's been going on here with I think starts
blinking whenever seizure from it. But it is hot live, we're live,
we know we're live. Go ahead. I think there's one of the things
that you know we tell our builders we work with, and I think a
lot of them were more experienced builders, and that's we deal. That's a
clientele we built up, and that's in everybody in the industry. Okay,
I hope that bub we're going to break. I know, I know this
thing. I'm so sorry. You know. It's in Toughest Nails on WBZ
News Radio ten third'd be right back and welcome back to Toughest Nails on WBZ
News Radio ten thirty. And I'm Cindy and I'm here with Sam, I'm
here with Sean. I'm here Tyler. Okay, So guys, you're inducted
into the Cindy Stampo world. So we're gonna come on every four or five,
six weeks. We're gonna bring up people up to speed on interest rates,
hard money, regular bank, traditional funding. How's that perfect, Tyler?
Sean, how do people reach you easiest ways on LinkedIn? Tyler Winder?
If you go on Instagram, mister Winder, that's what we're running with.
And if you're ever in North End in Boston, that is where our
headquarters are. Go ahead, Sean Kelly Rand RD Advisors, so you can
look us up on Instagram. We have a presence, but really you find
me personally on LinkedIn. So it's Sean Kelly rand So Kelly k E L
Y hyphen R A N D and it's on LinkedIn. You guys always going
to complicate things your generation. Okay, have a great safe weekend. I'm
sorry that the things are so long. I'm just Sindy stumpboy Gmail. I
have a great safe weekend and we'll see you next week. This is Cindy
Stumpo Toughest Nails on WBZ News Radio ten thirty