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Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty
Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey

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Evans. Thanks for listening. This
week, I'm talking about Week three value

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perception, verse reality. There's a
lot of biases that go into player value

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with fantasy football, redraft or Dynasty. I'm here to talk about names that

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have either overachieved underachieved so far and
what we should be thinking about them is

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the perception true or the reality?
Is that actually how their value will look

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for the receivable future in twenty twenty
three. This is actually episode three and

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ninety nine of the Dynasty Due podcast, So you know what that means.

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Next week's show is a milestone,
episode four hundred. I want to celebrate

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because the only reason why I keep
going is because of you listening right now

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in the car, in your earbuds, working out, going for a walk,

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doing laundry, whatever it may be. You're tuning in each and every

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week, and that helps this show
grow and it keeps my listenership relevant.

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So, first of all, thank
you all so much, no matter how

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long you've been listening, a long
time or recently discovered. I want to

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do a listener to and a a
question and answer, and it can be

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an Ama. So ask me anything, ask me about the podcasting general Face

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Football questions. You hit me up
on social media that is Dynasty dow Pod

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on Instagram or Twitter, the Dynasty
on Facebook, or send me your question

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via email Dynasty podict, gmail dot
com. If you're on Patreon at DM

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there will suffice as well. We'll
make sure to include some form of episode

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four hundred in your question if you
want to be featured on the show,

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so I note to include it in
summery. If you want to celebrate episode

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four hundred with me, then please
send me a question, a statement,

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anything you want about this podcast or
in general about face Football. I'll answer

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it and I'll give you a shout
out on next week's program to celebrate episode

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four hundred. All right, that
was a lot. Let's get right to

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this week's show once again. Week
three Value Perception Verse Reality. So Brock

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Purdy, he went twenty five to
thirty seven for three years, ten yards

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passing, two touchdowns, no picks, eight point four yards per tempt verse

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the Giants. People don't want to
believe that Purdy's output could a be sustainable

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or be he could be the forty
nine ers newest franchise quarterback. The reality

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is that he's an ideal fit for
Kyle Shanahan's offense when the brightest minds in

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football offensively, Purdy makes quick decisions, is intelligent both PrePost snap, and

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throws well off play action when there's
rollouts as well as RPOs. He knows

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his role and doesn't try to do
too much in terms of being a distributor

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for the forty nine ers stacked offensive
playmakers Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon,

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IoT, George Kittle. You get
the picture. Brock doesn't have the

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strongest arm or mobility, yet makes
up for it with poise, consistency,

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and execution on what is being asked
of him from Shanahan. Are there blips

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in the radar? Yes, we
saw some really bad errant throws in Week

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three, even when he excelled against
the Giants. He does not turn twenty

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four until December, so if he
is the real d youth is on his

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side. He made it quicker than
expected return from his UCL injury that could

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have cost him all twenty twenty three. That then prompted the forty Niners to

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move on from trade lance as a
sunk cost to the organization. Let's look

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at each week so far. Week
one at Pittsburgh Party was quarterback ten in

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Fantasy. Week two at La Rams
quarterback twenty four, Week three Verse Giants

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quarterback twelve. He's completing sixty seven
point one percent passes entering week four,

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and we saw a glimpse of Brock's
potential down the stretch twenty twenty two.

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During his rookie campaign, he ranked
as a quarterback thirty three and nine games

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played, small sample size, will
have more data work with if he starts

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for all of twenty twenty three.
In my mind, though, the perception

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is that Brock is not going to
sustain this level production. I think the

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reality is he's a borderline quarterback one
based on matchup the stream, or a

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rock solid quarterback two and superflex.
And we've seen him finishes a quarterback one

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to twelveteen leagues two out of three
times already this season. Cortland Sutton is

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up next. Eight grabs ninety one
yards a touchdown on eleven targets for eleven

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point four yards pertecch with two lost
fumbles. That was the red flag or

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blemish to another. I watched strong
week against Miami. He could have had

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another touchdown, but the pass went
through his hands on a back of end

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zone target. He beat a defender, came back to the football and went

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literally right through his hands to where
the stands begin at the back of the

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end zone. A ninety five percent
snap rate for Sudden in a game that

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Denver was absolutely blown out is encouraging. He's operating as the Broncos wide receiver

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one a head of Jerry Judy,
at least so far as Judy returns from

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his soft tissue injury. Perceiving Sudden
as dust or washed now looks like a

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mistake. After a solid starts to
twenty twenty three season, Week one versus

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Last his Raiders was four thirty two
in a touchdown, five targets eighty six

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percent of snaps. Week two versus
Washington five or sixty six seven targets eighty

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nine percent of snaps. And then
Week three, already mentioned was his breakout

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game for this year, a negative
game script with Russell Wilson. So here's

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the situation with Colon Sudden. He
turns twenty eight in October. That's more

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relevant than contenders in dynasty, not
middle of the pack or rebuilding teams under

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contract with then Verntil twenty twenty six, so no real concerns with this immediate

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contract. He was shopped in the
offseason Sean Pain and refew to the topic.

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But there are plenty of plugged in
sources saying Sudden was indeed on the

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trade block. Nothing took place.
It's not under the question that Sudden is

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traded prior to the deadline to a
contender, But for right now, Sudden

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is relevant fantasy. More importantly,
Rossell Wilson has thrown for over three hundred

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yards in back to back weeks.
It's a trend that figures can continue.

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As I mentioned an owing three Rockles
team that has been trailing in football games

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that leads to a lot of passing
attempt at passing volume two Golden Sudden,

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Jerry Judy, Marvin Mimms. If
we look ahead rest of season, I

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do think that why don't we want
to roster and dynasty is indeed Marvin Mimms,

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there's some Bilow appeal with Judy,
but to this point is durability or

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lack thereof has been a serious concern
in his profile. But Sudden is the

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one that won't cost a ton in
terms of draft capital, a second might

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get it done. I don't think
mid to late first is all that realistic,

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despite this Week three outburst, because
of his age, anyway you spend

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it. Though entering this season,
Sutton was viewed on the flex and or

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fantasy bench borderline. The reality is
that his value is closer to wide out

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three territory from our perspective, with
enough volume to suggest wide receiver two numbers

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are within reason. In other words, a rebound campaign for Courton sudden breeze

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hall twelve rushes eighteen yards one and
a half yards, one catch, nine

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yards, two targets versed to England
on forty nine percent of snaps. Longest

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carre he went for seven yards.
Dalvin Cook did not perform much better.

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Eight rushes eighteen yards two point three
yards per clip, and then three catches

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eleven yards on three targets. There
are a few overriding factors leading to the

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jets abysmal running game. First is
Zach Wilson's inability to move the ball downfield

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that leads the stack defensive boxes,
Because think about it, if you don't

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have Aaron Rodgers under center a threat
to throw it at all three levels of

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the field. Zach Wilson is dinking
and dunking, then stacked the box against

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the only hope for this offense,
that being Breese and Dalvin. Not to

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mention Andrey ridden slash. Underperforming defensive
line has resulted in a complete disaster of

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a running game or a lack of
establishing said running game. Through three weeks

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in New York with the Jets,
Week one versu Buffalo of Breese was a

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welcome to surprize his first actually back
from twenty acl he ran ten times for

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about twenty seven a catch twenty yards. We two had Dallas went backwards.

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Tough defense though same a buffalo to
be honest, but Dallas was four rushes

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nine yards after Breeze's most recent showing. It's dificultly trust him as anything more

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than RB three or flex desperation at
that. With a low floor and unknown

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ceiling, it's not what we expected. Then again, you can't predict or

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bank on an injury. The magnitude
of Aaron Rodgers Paul snap shares have not

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been all that encouraging either, except
he is coming off his season best.

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It's been thirty one percent, thirty
four percent, and forty nine percent,

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So maybe that is a sign that
he'll start seeing more work and or snapshare

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than David Cook in the foreseeable future. Unless the Jets will make a change

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at quarterback or become more creative on
offense, we should expect more of the

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same out of Breeze until further notice. Therefore, he remains an enticing by

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little candidate for dnity purposes, not
twenty three until next year, so still

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twenty two, especially to middle of
the pack, are rebuilding teams that are

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sitting on aging talent. If you
have a producing weekly running back that is

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twenty six twenty seven years old and
you are unsure what to do because the

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running back landscape is so paper thin
right now, try to flip them for

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breefe haul by low and hope for
better in middle to end of the season.

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If not, turning the page to
twenty twenty four before I discuss a

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few more value perception versus reality examples
from week three. Mind you all about

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my Patreon. It's only five dollars
per month of the minimum. It grants

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you access to a bonus show per
week and unlimited direct messages to send me

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for trades. Player value start sits
linking the show notes you want to join,

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you can't beat it for that price
point. Think of it as if

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we are going out to grab some
food or a drink. At that five

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dollars per month price tag, it's
much cheaper than others in this industry.

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And secondly, if you're lost not
sure what to do, you want to

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get a one on one roster call
scheduled over on Google Meet to hit me

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up. We'll do so. Offer
them in thirty minutes or one hour.

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Windows thirty minutes it's thirty bucks.
One hour is fifty dollars. Hit me

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up on social media or semi email
Dynasty, Podgy email dot com to get

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one of those calls scheduled time for
a quick break. I'll be back with

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a few more players to break down. How about a player receiving next to

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no attention? That being Josh Downs. He had eight grabs fifty seven yards,

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twelve targets seven point when it's pertect
so a low a dots or average

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at the target that was at Baltimore
eighty percent snap rates. Quietly, Downs

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is proving to be a regular outlet
in the Colts Aerial Tech, even though

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the perception is that he's well off
the fans radar. That may be true,

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but through a certain extent, if
you're in a pinch, you can

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start Josh Downs and full PPR and
at least expect some floor little to no

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ceiling. That could change quickly.
Week one vers Jacksonville precatches thirty yards seven

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targets. That was a seven nine
percent snap right. Week two at Houston

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four grabs thirty seven yards on five
targets, seventy five percent snap rate.

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Make no mistake that the Indianapolis offense
is being led by Anthony Rickerson went healthy

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to Michael Pittman, Zach Moss,
a mixture of Kylan Granson Drew a Boltree

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at tight end to this point,
and even a sprinkle of Alec Pierce.

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When aar is under center, he's
going to be running the football a lot,

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which does lower the ceiling and even
floor for someone like Downs, who's

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a rookie trying to make an impact
out of the slot. But Josh Downs

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has earned twenty four targets across three
weeks. Proof of concept that the third

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00:10:01,519 --> 00:10:05,519
round pick out of North Carolina has
a real role with Richardson or even Gardner

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Minshew at quarterback, Josh is not
a starting lineup block in redraft or dynasty,

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but he can be starred in deeper
formats. As I mentioned full PPR,

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I'm not scared throwing Downs into a
lineup The Colts could contend this season.

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The uncertainty of Jonathan Taylor returning or
being traded continuing to hold out is

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a variable that is unknown. However, the defense is strong and to keep

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them in football games. We just
saw them upset Baltimore in Week three.

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Josh Downs is one of the cheapest
pieces to acquire within this Colts offense.

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The perception is that he's not fancy
viable. Again, that could be true,

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but the reality is it won't take
long for people to catch on to

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his high snap rate and the fact
that he is essentially one of the better

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young slot wideouts already in the NFL. Johan Dotson, it's been a disappointment

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to catch his twenty one yards for
targets ten a half yards per catch vers

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Buffalo, a ninety four percent snap
rates. That's now three straight under roaming

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performances for the popular sophomore breakout candidate, and it's not all his fault.

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There's inconsistent play from quarterback Sam Howell
and at aplete defensive line. Week one

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verse Arizona was five or forty on
seven targets eighty seven percent of snaps.

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00:11:09,159 --> 00:11:13,039
Week two at Denver three catches twenty
two yards on five targets eighty five percent

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of snaps. The reality of Dotson's
current value is that he is not a

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set it, forget it, wide
out or flex option compared to how he

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fared down the stretch of twenty twenty
two and twelve games played a thirty five

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five twenty three seven line on sixty
one targets. Bottom line is, I

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don't see it as a Jahan Dotson
talent issue. When I'm watching Washington play,

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his route running and ability to separate
is still evident. Instead, Dotson

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has simply lacked opportunities sixteen targets in
three weeks, while his quarterback, Howell,

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has struggle with effectiveness three touchdowns to
five interceptions. You cannot be turning

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the ball over that much to remain
a starter as a pro. And then

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not to mention Washington's defensive line is
not helping matters how Low him self,

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as sect nine times in Week three. If a quarterback is dropping back assession

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his progressions has next to no time
to do so he's going to scramble and

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be forced to make errant passes.
It's not like Terry mclauren is doing all

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that great either. The only highlights
of this offense early on have been Brian

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Robinson and before his concussion occurred,
Logan Thomas Dodson. Mclauren are underachieving significantly

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compared to ADP expectations. John Dotson, I believe is one of the best

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bylows in Dynasty right now. It's
from week four. The perception is that

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it is a bust. He's only
a sophomore. Reality, though, is

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the talent has not changed. Situation
also still in favor of Dotson either being

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a one beats mclauren's one A or
even leap frog can becoming in alpha in

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this offense, whether it be a
player or a draft pick. In twenty

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twenty four, John Dotson is sum
of the targets before Week four begins.

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It will take is one bounce back
game and that window is going to close

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shut. Last button least, perhaps
most controversial, it is Jackson Smith and

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Jigba JSN one catch ten yards,
three targets versus Carolina on only forty four

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percent of snaps. It's been a
slow burn so far. Week one versus

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Elie Rams three for thirteen on five
targets fifty nine percent of snaps. Week

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two at Detroit five to thirty four
six targets his best showing over the span

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of fifty six percent of snaps.
That puts Jason on the map as a

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part time rotational player so far.
There's going to be panic in the streets

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regarding Jason's early season role at three
cost pick one OHO two if not pick

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one OH three and a one quarterback
pre draft or a top six rookie draft

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pick in superflex formats this summer.
The primary issue is a lack of usage

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and two receiver sets as expected dk
Metcalf tire Lockett. They are locked in

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as Seattle starters in said two receiver
sets. If either of them were to

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miss time, though, JSN would
project to benefit and slot in as a

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near full time player. If there
is one cause of concern or worry in

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jsn's profile early on is that PFF, who by grade really well at least

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have a reputable trafficker. They've assigned
Jason with a bottom ten receiving great entering

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Week four. That does raise an
eyebrow, but it's not enough to write

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him off or freak out and sell
for pennies in a dollar because PF.

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Conversely, Grady JSN is one of
the best college wideouts in recent memory,

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so take that for what it's worth. It's just it's a really small sample

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size to work with, and Seattle
has not needed to incorporate j Send all

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that much into the picture. The
perception leading up to twenty twenty three years

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that the Seahawks would probably deploy three
receiver sets more frequently with less two time

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personnel. Through three weeks, that
has not been a reality. Instead,

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Seattle's funneling his offense on the ground
via Kenneth Walker and sum Zach Charbonnet.

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Walker has seen rushing attempts of twelve
seventeen eighteen to this point due to Jasen

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slill start. There is a window
to buy low here as a top tier

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prospect and talent for the remainder of
this season. More importantly, his future.

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Can't forget Tara Lockett still looks like
his usual dominant self, but he

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is already thirty years old, and
that cliff when it comes does come quick.

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Perfect example of be DeAndre Hopkins.
He looks lost or like a shelves

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from herself early on in twenty twenty
three. But swinging it back to Jasen,

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you don't want to overreact. If
anything, you want to try to

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buy low on the panic and figure
that sets in with rookies because people feel

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like they have a sunk cost already
if they invested heavily. Let's look back.

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Just as recent examples, Garrett Wilson
started off slow compared expectations last year

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and then was one of the best
surprises able to end of season with the

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Jets. Even Justin Jefferson as a
rookie startoff slow, was wide receiver three

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or four in the depth chart behind
BC Johnson through training camp the preseason.

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I'm not saying that JSN is guaranteed
to rebound to the extent of a Garrett

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Wilson or Justin Jefferson, but their
talent is similar and JSN can make a

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similar impact for Seattle. Right now, it's a lack of opportunity and the

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fact that he's coming off a low
forty four percent of snaps is discouraging.

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But if you're not going to bylow
and John Dodson. I think JSN is

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the ultimate BILO because the perception is
going to be He's a bust. He's

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not. We thought he was.
It was one year of relevancy and topic

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production of House State. He's undersized
is only a slot threat. I don't

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believe any of these narratives that will
be spewed the next couple of weeks.

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Even if this trend continues. You
invested in JSN for the long haul.

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This is not redraft. Even at
that. I do think that JSN makes

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a significant impact at some point in
twenty twenty three. The reality is it's

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going to require some patience and perhaps
take a bit longer than we might have

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expected that will do it. Hope
you'll enjoyed my value perception versus reality episode

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I discussed Brock Purty, Cordon Sutton, Breese Hall, Josh Downs, Johan

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Dotson, and Jackson Smith in JIGBA. If you have any questions, please

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reach out. I want to feature
them on episode four hundred of Dynasty Podcast

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00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:17,000
next week. As a reminder to
be included, to send me a message

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over email, Dynasty Pod, gmail
dot com, or hit me up on

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00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:23,600
social media. That's Dynasty Pod on
Instagram or Twitter, the Dynasty on Facebook,

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00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:26,440
even if you're on Patreon, send
me DM. Just let me know

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00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,120
that you want it featured on the
podcast so I know to include it.

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00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,960
It can be as simple as a
statement you want read aloud regarding the podcast,

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00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:37,279
how long you've been a listener,
or if you have an actual fantasy

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00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,159
question, of course I'll include that. Ask me anything. I am open

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to discussing whatever it is you the
audience want to hear, because this show

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exists because of you, and you're
a longtime support pushing almost eight plus years

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00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,919
now. So thank you all so
much. We'll be back together next week

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to celebrate for episode four hundred.
Until then, gluck to everybody in week

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four. This is the Dynasty checking
out. See you almos as a A almost a
