Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week, I'm talking about Week three value
perception, verse reality. There's a lot of biases that go into player value
with fantasy football, redraft or Dynasty. I'm here to talk about names that
have either overachieved underachieved so far and what we should be thinking about them is
the perception true or the reality? Is that actually how their value will look
for the receivable future in twenty twenty three. This is actually episode three and
ninety nine of the Dynasty Due podcast, So you know what that means.
Next week's show is a milestone, episode four hundred. I want to celebrate
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four hundred. All right, that was a lot. Let's get right to
this week's show once again. Week three Value Perception Verse Reality. So Brock
Purdy, he went twenty five to thirty seven for three years, ten yards
passing, two touchdowns, no picks, eight point four yards per tempt verse
the Giants. People don't want to believe that Purdy's output could a be sustainable
or be he could be the forty nine ers newest franchise quarterback. The reality
is that he's an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense when the brightest minds in
football offensively, Purdy makes quick decisions, is intelligent both PrePost snap, and
throws well off play action when there's rollouts as well as RPOs. He knows
his role and doesn't try to do too much in terms of being a distributor
for the forty nine ers stacked offensive playmakers Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon,
IoT, George Kittle. You get the picture. Brock doesn't have the
strongest arm or mobility, yet makes up for it with poise, consistency,
and execution on what is being asked of him from Shanahan. Are there blips
in the radar? Yes, we saw some really bad errant throws in Week
three, even when he excelled against the Giants. He does not turn twenty
four until December, so if he is the real d youth is on his
side. He made it quicker than expected return from his UCL injury that could
have cost him all twenty twenty three. That then prompted the forty Niners to
move on from trade lance as a sunk cost to the organization. Let's look
at each week so far. Week one at Pittsburgh Party was quarterback ten in
Fantasy. Week two at La Rams quarterback twenty four, Week three Verse Giants
quarterback twelve. He's completing sixty seven point one percent passes entering week four,
and we saw a glimpse of Brock's potential down the stretch twenty twenty two.
During his rookie campaign, he ranked as a quarterback thirty three and nine games
played, small sample size, will have more data work with if he starts
for all of twenty twenty three. In my mind, though, the perception
is that Brock is not going to sustain this level production. I think the
reality is he's a borderline quarterback one based on matchup the stream, or a
rock solid quarterback two and superflex. And we've seen him finishes a quarterback one
to twelveteen leagues two out of three times already this season. Cortland Sutton is
up next. Eight grabs ninety one yards a touchdown on eleven targets for eleven
point four yards pertecch with two lost fumbles. That was the red flag or
blemish to another. I watched strong week against Miami. He could have had
another touchdown, but the pass went through his hands on a back of end
zone target. He beat a defender, came back to the football and went
literally right through his hands to where the stands begin at the back of the
end zone. A ninety five percent snap rate for Sudden in a game that
Denver was absolutely blown out is encouraging. He's operating as the Broncos wide receiver
one a head of Jerry Judy, at least so far as Judy returns from
his soft tissue injury. Perceiving Sudden as dust or washed now looks like a
mistake. After a solid starts to twenty twenty three season, Week one versus
Last his Raiders was four thirty two in a touchdown, five targets eighty six
percent of snaps. Week two versus Washington five or sixty six seven targets eighty
nine percent of snaps. And then Week three, already mentioned was his breakout
game for this year, a negative game script with Russell Wilson. So here's
the situation with Colon Sudden. He turns twenty eight in October. That's more
relevant than contenders in dynasty, not middle of the pack or rebuilding teams under
contract with then Verntil twenty twenty six, so no real concerns with this immediate
contract. He was shopped in the offseason Sean Pain and refew to the topic.
But there are plenty of plugged in sources saying Sudden was indeed on the
trade block. Nothing took place. It's not under the question that Sudden is
traded prior to the deadline to a contender, But for right now, Sudden
is relevant fantasy. More importantly, Rossell Wilson has thrown for over three hundred
yards in back to back weeks. It's a trend that figures can continue.
As I mentioned an owing three Rockles team that has been trailing in football games
that leads to a lot of passing attempt at passing volume two Golden Sudden,
Jerry Judy, Marvin Mimms. If we look ahead rest of season, I
do think that why don't we want to roster and dynasty is indeed Marvin Mimms,
there's some Bilow appeal with Judy, but to this point is durability or
lack thereof has been a serious concern in his profile. But Sudden is the
one that won't cost a ton in terms of draft capital, a second might
get it done. I don't think mid to late first is all that realistic,
despite this Week three outburst, because of his age, anyway you spend
it. Though entering this season, Sutton was viewed on the flex and or
fantasy bench borderline. The reality is that his value is closer to wide out
three territory from our perspective, with enough volume to suggest wide receiver two numbers
are within reason. In other words, a rebound campaign for Courton sudden breeze
hall twelve rushes eighteen yards one and a half yards, one catch, nine
yards, two targets versed to England on forty nine percent of snaps. Longest
carre he went for seven yards. Dalvin Cook did not perform much better.
Eight rushes eighteen yards two point three yards per clip, and then three catches
eleven yards on three targets. There are a few overriding factors leading to the
jets abysmal running game. First is Zach Wilson's inability to move the ball downfield
that leads the stack defensive boxes, Because think about it, if you don't
have Aaron Rodgers under center a threat to throw it at all three levels of
the field. Zach Wilson is dinking and dunking, then stacked the box against
the only hope for this offense, that being Breese and Dalvin. Not to
mention Andrey ridden slash. Underperforming defensive line has resulted in a complete disaster of
a running game or a lack of establishing said running game. Through three weeks
in New York with the Jets, Week one versu Buffalo of Breese was a
welcome to surprize his first actually back from twenty acl he ran ten times for
about twenty seven a catch twenty yards. We two had Dallas went backwards.
Tough defense though same a buffalo to be honest, but Dallas was four rushes
nine yards after Breeze's most recent showing. It's dificultly trust him as anything more
than RB three or flex desperation at that. With a low floor and unknown
ceiling, it's not what we expected. Then again, you can't predict or
bank on an injury. The magnitude of Aaron Rodgers Paul snap shares have not
been all that encouraging either, except he is coming off his season best.
It's been thirty one percent, thirty four percent, and forty nine percent,
So maybe that is a sign that he'll start seeing more work and or snapshare
than David Cook in the foreseeable future. Unless the Jets will make a change
at quarterback or become more creative on offense, we should expect more of the
same out of Breeze until further notice. Therefore, he remains an enticing by
little candidate for dnity purposes, not twenty three until next year, so still
twenty two, especially to middle of the pack, are rebuilding teams that are
sitting on aging talent. If you have a producing weekly running back that is
twenty six twenty seven years old and you are unsure what to do because the
running back landscape is so paper thin right now, try to flip them for
breefe haul by low and hope for better in middle to end of the season.
If not, turning the page to twenty twenty four before I discuss a
few more value perception versus reality examples from week three. Mind you all about
my Patreon. It's only five dollars per month of the minimum. It grants
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And secondly, if you're lost not sure what to do, you want to
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one of those calls scheduled time for a quick break. I'll be back with
a few more players to break down. How about a player receiving next to
no attention? That being Josh Downs. He had eight grabs fifty seven yards,
twelve targets seven point when it's pertect so a low a dots or average
at the target that was at Baltimore eighty percent snap rates. Quietly, Downs
is proving to be a regular outlet in the Colts Aerial Tech, even though
the perception is that he's well off the fans radar. That may be true,
but through a certain extent, if you're in a pinch, you can
start Josh Downs and full PPR and at least expect some floor little to no
ceiling. That could change quickly. Week one vers Jacksonville precatches thirty yards seven
targets. That was a seven nine percent snap right. Week two at Houston
four grabs thirty seven yards on five targets, seventy five percent snap rate.
Make no mistake that the Indianapolis offense is being led by Anthony Rickerson went healthy
to Michael Pittman, Zach Moss, a mixture of Kylan Granson Drew a Boltree
at tight end to this point, and even a sprinkle of Alec Pierce.
When aar is under center, he's going to be running the football a lot,
which does lower the ceiling and even floor for someone like Downs, who's
a rookie trying to make an impact out of the slot. But Josh Downs
has earned twenty four targets across three weeks. Proof of concept that the third
round pick out of North Carolina has a real role with Richardson or even Gardner
Minshew at quarterback, Josh is not a starting lineup block in redraft or dynasty,
but he can be starred in deeper formats. As I mentioned full PPR,
I'm not scared throwing Downs into a lineup The Colts could contend this season.
The uncertainty of Jonathan Taylor returning or being traded continuing to hold out is
a variable that is unknown. However, the defense is strong and to keep
them in football games. We just saw them upset Baltimore in Week three.
Josh Downs is one of the cheapest pieces to acquire within this Colts offense.
The perception is that he's not fancy viable. Again, that could be true,
but the reality is it won't take long for people to catch on to
his high snap rate and the fact that he is essentially one of the better
young slot wideouts already in the NFL. Johan Dotson, it's been a disappointment
to catch his twenty one yards for targets ten a half yards per catch vers
Buffalo, a ninety four percent snap rates. That's now three straight under roaming
performances for the popular sophomore breakout candidate, and it's not all his fault.
There's inconsistent play from quarterback Sam Howell and at aplete defensive line. Week one
verse Arizona was five or forty on seven targets eighty seven percent of snaps.
Week two at Denver three catches twenty two yards on five targets eighty five percent
of snaps. The reality of Dotson's current value is that he is not a
set it, forget it, wide out or flex option compared to how he
fared down the stretch of twenty twenty two and twelve games played a thirty five
five twenty three seven line on sixty one targets. Bottom line is, I
don't see it as a Jahan Dotson talent issue. When I'm watching Washington play,
his route running and ability to separate is still evident. Instead, Dotson
has simply lacked opportunities sixteen targets in three weeks, while his quarterback, Howell,
has struggle with effectiveness three touchdowns to five interceptions. You cannot be turning
the ball over that much to remain a starter as a pro. And then
not to mention Washington's defensive line is not helping matters how Low him self,
as sect nine times in Week three. If a quarterback is dropping back assession
his progressions has next to no time to do so he's going to scramble and
be forced to make errant passes. It's not like Terry mclauren is doing all
that great either. The only highlights of this offense early on have been Brian
Robinson and before his concussion occurred, Logan Thomas Dodson. Mclauren are underachieving significantly
compared to ADP expectations. John Dotson, I believe is one of the best
bylows in Dynasty right now. It's from week four. The perception is that
it is a bust. He's only a sophomore. Reality, though, is
the talent has not changed. Situation also still in favor of Dotson either being
a one beats mclauren's one A or even leap frog can becoming in alpha in
this offense, whether it be a player or a draft pick. In twenty
twenty four, John Dotson is sum of the targets before Week four begins.
It will take is one bounce back game and that window is going to close
shut. Last button least, perhaps most controversial, it is Jackson Smith and
Jigba JSN one catch ten yards, three targets versus Carolina on only forty four
percent of snaps. It's been a slow burn so far. Week one versus
Elie Rams three for thirteen on five targets fifty nine percent of snaps. Week
two at Detroit five to thirty four six targets his best showing over the span
of fifty six percent of snaps. That puts Jason on the map as a
part time rotational player so far. There's going to be panic in the streets
regarding Jason's early season role at three cost pick one OHO two if not pick
one OH three and a one quarterback pre draft or a top six rookie draft
pick in superflex formats this summer. The primary issue is a lack of usage
and two receiver sets as expected dk Metcalf tire Lockett. They are locked in
as Seattle starters in said two receiver sets. If either of them were to
miss time, though, JSN would project to benefit and slot in as a
near full time player. If there is one cause of concern or worry in
jsn's profile early on is that PFF, who by grade really well at least
have a reputable trafficker. They've assigned Jason with a bottom ten receiving great entering
Week four. That does raise an eyebrow, but it's not enough to write
him off or freak out and sell for pennies in a dollar because PF.
Conversely, Grady JSN is one of the best college wideouts in recent memory,
so take that for what it's worth. It's just it's a really small sample
size to work with, and Seattle has not needed to incorporate j Send all
that much into the picture. The perception leading up to twenty twenty three years
that the Seahawks would probably deploy three receiver sets more frequently with less two time
personnel. Through three weeks, that has not been a reality. Instead,
Seattle's funneling his offense on the ground via Kenneth Walker and sum Zach Charbonnet.
Walker has seen rushing attempts of twelve seventeen eighteen to this point due to Jasen
slill start. There is a window to buy low here as a top tier
prospect and talent for the remainder of this season. More importantly, his future.
Can't forget Tara Lockett still looks like his usual dominant self, but he
is already thirty years old, and that cliff when it comes does come quick.
Perfect example of be DeAndre Hopkins. He looks lost or like a shelves
from herself early on in twenty twenty three. But swinging it back to Jasen,
you don't want to overreact. If anything, you want to try to
buy low on the panic and figure that sets in with rookies because people feel
like they have a sunk cost already if they invested heavily. Let's look back.
Just as recent examples, Garrett Wilson started off slow compared expectations last year
and then was one of the best surprises able to end of season with the
Jets. Even Justin Jefferson as a rookie startoff slow, was wide receiver three
or four in the depth chart behind BC Johnson through training camp the preseason.
I'm not saying that JSN is guaranteed to rebound to the extent of a Garrett
Wilson or Justin Jefferson, but their talent is similar and JSN can make a
similar impact for Seattle. Right now, it's a lack of opportunity and the
fact that he's coming off a low forty four percent of snaps is discouraging.
But if you're not going to bylow and John Dodson. I think JSN is
the ultimate BILO because the perception is going to be He's a bust. He's
not. We thought he was. It was one year of relevancy and topic
production of House State. He's undersized is only a slot threat. I don't
believe any of these narratives that will be spewed the next couple of weeks.
Even if this trend continues. You invested in JSN for the long haul.
This is not redraft. Even at that. I do think that JSN makes
a significant impact at some point in twenty twenty three. The reality is it's
going to require some patience and perhaps take a bit longer than we might have
expected that will do it. Hope you'll enjoyed my value perception versus reality episode
I discussed Brock Purty, Cordon Sutton, Breese Hall, Josh Downs, Johan
Dotson, and Jackson Smith in JIGBA. If you have any questions, please
reach out. I want to feature them on episode four hundred of Dynasty Podcast
next week. As a reminder to be included, to send me a message
over email, Dynasty Pod, gmail dot com, or hit me up on
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now. So thank you all so much. We'll be back together next week
to celebrate for episode four hundred. Until then, gluck to everybody in week
four. This is the Dynasty checking out. See you almos as a A almost a