What is krak alacking Hardwood Knox listeners. I am Damp Valley coming at you
without my fantabulous co host Adam Problemo this time, have a solo mail bag
for you on this Friday, mostly because we're not supposed to have a podcast
at all this week. I am, as we mentioned on the Hardwood Knox
account at Hardwooknox will follow us. I am in health and safety protocols.
I tested positive for COVID on Wednesday morning after a very very very rough tuesday.
I'm doing well for anyone who cares, and there were people who shouted
me out so or wished me well, so I appreciate that. I cannot
sleep though on this It's very early Friday morning now, like five something.
Couldn't fall asleep, so figured why not get to the mail bag that we
sent out sent out the solicitation for earlier in the week. I'm kind of
anchy, very fatigued. You're gonna try and get through as many questions as
possible, so let's not waste any more time on that. I just felt
weird not having a podcast for an entire, like full on work week.
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With all that out of the way, let's dive head first into this now
bag. We'll begin with the NBA Chicken frequent question asker. They ask how
much longer until Portland makes a decision regarding blowing it up or making a major
move this trade deadline next season? Outside of CJ for Ben Simmons, I'm
not sure what other move makes sense. I would say we've been here before,
but they've they're nearly at the bottom of the West now, Yeah,
they're in this weird situation. I think with Portland specifically, Neil Shay before
he was fired, deserved a ton of criticism, even though they experienced some
success under his tenure on the basketball court specifically, anyway, I think I
liked a lot of his moves that he made on their own. Norm Powell
for Gary French Jr. I feel like that ended up being a win win
for both teams. To be honest with you. I liked Lardy dances,
junior trade, I liked Robert Covington trade at the time, but they never
really went for it. It was always sort of these not moves on the
margins, but these like half significant moves where if there were stars that came
out of the market, you never saw them go all in, maybe because
they were too market aware of selfware, knowing that they weren't going to keep
these guys if it was a Kawhi Leonard, if it was a Paul George,
if it was if it was a Jimmy Butler, but knowing how good
Dame has been for quite some time, they really did fail to kind of
make that all and move whatever it was, And a lot of people point
to a wing, but it might have been a different type of big other
than use of nurkics. At some point, it became pretty clear early on
that you were going to be capped without the infusion of another player. When
looking at a CJ. McCollum or Damien and Damian Lillard backcourt, I'm not
I'm not even sure that you needed to break it up, but it's probably
something that needed to be explored more seriously before now this season specifically, I
would be mildly to moderately shocked if they move a CJ. McCollum. They're
not moving Dame. Let's just let's get beyond if they move a Norman Powell
or CJ. McCollum. Part of that is I don't know how much influence
or authority Joe Cronin has an interm GM, even though he's been with the
organization for a while, will probably be in the running, we assume,
for that top job this offseason. I'm just not sure if they're going to
give him the license to make such a wholesale decision when you are so far
out of the Western Conference contention picture right now. Chauncey Phillips has talked about
maybe shutting Dame down for an extensive period of time so we can heal up
from that abdominal injury that has apparently bothered him for years at this point.
If you're going that route, I think what you're probably going to see them
do is hold serve and maybe look at shopping. There soon to be free
agents. I'd be a little bit surprised if Anthony Simons was among them.
He's having a great year, and I don't know that they need to fear
his restricted free agency. Necessarily they have the leverage to match, and I
just I look at the cap space landscape and the teams that are slated to
have the most I don't know that any of them are going to go give
Simons this huge offer. If you don't want to pay him, there probably
signed in trade scenarios that will be open to you, and it'll be easier
to capitalize on his departure when he's a larger outgoing salary. That leaves Nurkics
and Robert Covington to me as the most likely players to be moved. I
don't know what you can get for Nurkics. The big man market is so
saturated. Even though there are some teams like A you know everyone's gonna mention
Charlotte that could use a center. I don't know that he necessarily He definitely
doesn't fit in Charlotte. To me, is just someone who isn't necessarily going
to run the floor with them, And I don't know that he improves their
defense at all, even if they are playing drop coverage. But he is.
He is a good player, can make a lot of passes in the
short role from a stand still. He's improved his finishing around the rim.
He has those little flip shots, and again, I think he can work
better than a lot of other bigs if you're gonna put him into drop the
Portland has just tried to be a lot more aggressive in the pick and roll
this year, which has kind of hurt him. Roco. We've seen his
shooting really regress this season. Maybe he picks it up on a better team.
He's played a little bit better since he was demoted from the starting five.
I still think he can bring you some solid team defense, and he
fits the three indeed concept, which teams are naturally going to want a trade
that I had proposed, or that I just file the bats, but we're
talking about it before it's even live. But you know, peak behind the
curtain there, and I wrote it while having COVID's Maybe this is a COVID
brain here. But if it's basically a Robert Covington for Nerland's Noel swap,
maybe New York has a send and protected second top forty four protected second to
Portland to get that done. What that move does is it gets Portland out
of the tax for this year, and then it sort of gives them this
cheap big who they can use in more aggressive pick and roll schemes, at
least relative to nurkicch and Nerlands. Nowell is a pretty good rim protector.
Will give you at least more of a rim running threat than I guess Nurkics
is, but not really Nurks is going to do more stuff in that situation.
He's clearly more limited an offense, is the point. But he's under
contract for nine point two nine point three million next season. That's some insurance
against Nurkics leaving if you don't want to pay him big money. It's just
cheap enough to where, okay, we have this rotation big if he's a
backup, we're not paying him that much money to the point that we mind
having him be a second stringer. Maybe he's even starting for you, But
that's someone who gives you twenty to twenty five minutes per game. And again,
I think Portland, knowing this season is about to be punted on.
It seems like you want to get out of the tax, and a team
like the Knicks really just needs more two way wingish players because there's RJ.
Barrett for them, and that's really it unless you consider Quentin Grymes a huge
part of their immediate outlook this season. Covington could come in, come off
the bench, probably get some real minutes for them. I don't think he
fixes their defense, but I think he opens up different lineup combinations. If
Neurlyn Soell is not there, you have Mitchell Robinson, you have todaj Gibson,
maybe the Nicks and more Wi Way to play Julius Randolds center with real
Coo at the four. Maybe they're just more willing to explore the Obi top
and Julius Randall front courts there. But that type of a move, Larry
Nitch Jr's someone I thought about. I think a team like Charlotte, maybe
they would come in with an offer of Kelly Bridge Jr. Kai Jones and
a second for Larry Nance Jr. I would give up that much for Larry
Nance fom the Horne. It's just to be clear, I think Ubrey is
not going to factor into their long term future. If they want to keep
Miles Bridges, PJ. Washington and Gordon hay Word together, they're already paying
Terry Rozier would raise on this sort of placeholder deal has only part of his
salary next season guaranteed. He's had a pretty good year shooting his cool,
but he gives you some just defensive options up the positional spectrum that you know
Portland could use. And looking at Rocco probably leaving this summer, having the
ability to keep Kelly brid Junior for I think it's twelve point six million would
be his full guaranteed salary next year. That's something that could interest them.
But I don't know why you move Nance because he is also insurance against Nurkics
leaving, just to have that real big on the roster if you don't want
him playing the five all the time. But I would love to see Nance
in Charlotte. So if you're really going to lean into sort of seller's mode,
you know, moving Larry Nance Junior is definitely a smaller scale undertaking compared
to a CJ. Mccollumn or Norman Powell or Damian Lillard, just one relative
to what Dame means to the franchise, But just looking at the magnitude of
the contracts of a Norman Powell, CJ. McCullum and Dame deal. The
other thing I'll say about the Blazers, and I just it would probably take
in about face on Philly's art. They seem to want someone who qualifies as
at least a fringe. All staring to Ben Simmons trade, I still think
if you build out a package around Larry Nance, Norman Powell picks and swaps
for Ben Simmons, if I'm feeling I'm thinking about that, because that's still
ingredients for another trade down the line, and then Norman Powell helps you out
a ton immediately. And I know that you've had some success with Andre Drummond
this season, with George Yangett points, but Lader next year you would be
a hell of sort of a big death coming off the bench. You could
try playing him with Joel Embiid. Even though I wouldn't necessarily suggest it in
high volume, I would just given where Ben Simmons's value seems to be.
Unless there's just a trade that we don't know about out there, Powell Nance
plus picks and swaps, I think that could, you know, I don't
think it does. It definitely helps the Sixers, but I think that's a
longer term haul that you can justify if they're them where it's Hey, maybe
we keep these players and they help him beat immediately, but also between Powell
and Nance and then again picks and swaps, you should be able to go
out build a different package, should have Star become available, because we don't
even know how interested Portland will be in Zimmons if Dame ever becomes available,
if it's this offseason, did over Washington and Bill where that would probably be
assigned in trade scenario this summer unless he's opt again. How much do they
actually want to start rebuilding around Ben Simmons if they're moving Bradley Beal Just something
to consider there. I do expect Portland to do something at the trade deadline
because if everyone to shut down Dame, this season is over, and I
would think Roco and Nurkish will be heavily involved in trade rumors and I would
bet money on one of them probably being moved. And I don't think a
Nance trade is out of the question. I just don't know that you really
need to make that call if you're not doing anything with the rest of your
roster outside of Roco and Nurkish. There, let's go to Johnny. He
asked, who has statistically been the best second round pick this season. It's
if you want to go by total points at it, which is NBA Mats
homestat. There's Joe Weezcamp of the San Antonio Spurs. Let's sort of filter
the minutes out there and say these I need to have at least played like
forty minutes this season, fifty minutes whatever. In that case, it'll be
Charles Bassy in Philadelphia. I do think the best second round pick this year
has been Herb Jones. I believe he leads all second round picks and value
over replacement player. The job he's done on defense in New Orleans is just
outstanding, and he's shouldering a heavy role. This data comes per b Ball
Index, but among the five hundred and seventy six players that have locked court
time and made it to their database, Herbert Jones, Herb Jones is eighth
in matchup difficulty. That is for a rookie, that's absurd. So that's
a great fine for New Orleans right there. If he's going to shoot threes
at a league average clip, or just give them just maybe some downhill hill
juice or something sort of like a big role, a big man's type role.
Offensively, that's a real rotation player, and it's a great fine because
Naji Marshall has just fallen off a cliff compared to last season, and Trey
Murphy the third has just not been as big a part of the rotation as
we expected, has not played or succeeded as immediately as a lot of people
initially projected in the NBA. So Herb Jones ends up being an absolutely huge
fine for New Orleans, who, by the way, I've been playing better
of late. And if Zion ever does come back, who knows, maybe
they can make a push of some sort. But I would be interested to
see just I want Zone to come back, to see the different lineup permutations
that they build having Jonah found tunis there, but also the Herb Jones option.
They can play a lot of just wonky position list basketball. But yeah,
for me, the best second round pick has been Herb Jones, and
I think statistically for the most part you could support it. But again,
TPA among second round picks who've actually kind of played at least a certain amount
of minutes. Again, forty Charles Bassi gets that one. There are I'm
gonna loop these three questions together because they have to do with the MVP race.
We'll start with Ian he asked, why do people not see Yokich's dominance
as a clear number one case for MVP. I think so for starters.
I don't know that there's a clear, clear number one right now. I
think Yokich and Steph are kind of neck and neck for that one in two
spot, and I think about Jana Slot. There's also Katie. There are
people make a case for Damar. I'll get to my top of my ballot
quickly because that's another question that we have, so I'll get there soon.
But I do believe that Yokis does get undersold as an MVP. We saw
it last year when I think that he became the clear MVP, you know,
midway definitely by the three quarter marks through the season, when you kind
of looked at and saw the time that and be missed that Lebron had missed.
There was really I guess between him and Janice would have been like the
bigger decision to make, insofar as you even had to make one. I
honestly, I don't know that there's a real answer other than how many people
are watching the Nuggets. And I hate to play that card because if you're
a casual MBA fan, you're a casual MBA fan, Yoki should be among
the primary mega star draws there. But I understand if there are people that
just aren't watching the Nuggets a ton. That being said, the people who
have votes, you hope that they are at least paying attention enough to the
Nuggets to understand the magnitude of what Yokis is doing. It also could be
because the Nuggets just aren't that elite team this year, since you are missing
Michael Porter Junior and Jamal Murray right now. I do think that does elevate
his case. When you look at everyone who has played at least one hundred
and ten minutes this season, yokeets leads the league in net rating swing the
Nuggets are. They're getting out scored by minus fifteen point two points per one
hundred possessions when he's off the court. They're aout scoring opponents by plus eight
point eight points per one hundred possessions when he's on the court, And so
that's nearly a twenty four point or exactly a twenty four point net rating swing,
And those numbers can be misleading, especially when the team is good.
It could be him just elevating this really good product we've seen it with other
MVPs in the past. That's not necessarily something to denigrate him with, but
I think this sort of speaks more so to how in dispense beliefs the Nuggets
because they're dogshit when he's not on the court. That being said, Stephen
Curry is top five in net rating swing among this criteria as well. He's
doing it on a team that's better when he's off the floor relative to how
the Nuggets are without Yokich. There is something to be said about uplifting a
better team by a similar margin as opposed to taking a team that would be
barebones or just really crappy without you and bringing it to a semi good,
borderline great level. I don't this doesn't have to be the end allpo I
don't know how you'd necessarily distinguished between these two factors, but it makes it
really tough for Yokich. Advanced metrics are still going to love him. When
you look at regularize adjusted plus minus the single year stuff can be noisy,
but no matter how you slice it, whether it's luck adjusted or just the
regular ra APM, he ranks in the top five of both. He is
I think fourth in regular RAPM and then luck adjusted RPM he is second in
the league and so he has the clout to win MVP. I just do
think that step is a viable candidate as someone who you put him on the
floor, and I don't even know that you could say is about Yokis just
by having him step on the floor, even if he doesn't have the ball,
by virtue of him being there, by virtue of the concept of Steph
and Curry existing to the defense, he makes everyone around him better, where
I do think that Yokis needs the ball to have that level of an impact,
which isn't really an argument against him, to be clear, And I
will get to who my MVP pick is in the second next question comes from
diagon Alley says, do you believe Steph Curry should win the MVP award?
What are you looking for from the Warriors the rest of the season? Can
they win at all? And then Delano banton Stan asked, who's your MVP?
So my MVP right now is Nicole Yoki. I don't know if I'm
waiting the lack of help that he's had too much, because I don't think
Steph should be penalised for having Draymond Green, for having this version of Andrew
Wiggins, for getting a Gary Payton, the second breakout for the Warriors,
hitting on the margins with the Otto Porter junior signing and minutes from Namania be
Elites, and even just getting flashes of Jonathan commingto this season, the Warriors
have been for the most part, the best, no worse than the second
best team in the league this season. And I think that Steph is to
me still the single most valuable offensive player in the league, and that includes
Yoki. Yokich wins it out for me because I do think he's more valuable
to the Nuggets even at full strength, than maybe Steph would be to the
Warriors at full strength, because you have Clay, you have Draymond. Maybe
Steph wins it out when they're at full strength by a little bit, because
if you take him off the Warriors at full strength, you know, let's
take Yokich off the full strength Nuggets. Let's take Steph off the full strength
Warriors. Which one of those teams is more likely to be a playoff team.
I think it's probably the Nuggets. Maybe that speaks to the faith I
have in Jamal Murray, but We've seen what can happen with Draymond when his
minutes are untethered from Steph or he's not playing with this team that with a
team that just has a ton of offensive depth, his game can can really
suffer. Where I think Yokich wins it for me this season, at least
you can look at the body of work how he's uplifted a team that really
has just been beset by injuries. Forget the league's health and safety protocols,
They've just been beset by injuries at the top more than other squads. Because
Michael Porter Junior Jamal Murray are supposed to be I would say two of their
three most important players, But depending on how you feel about Aaron Gordon,
let's say two of their foremost important players. That's not a Jamal Murray shot.
That would be a Michael Porter junior shot. If anything. Yogis is
also just more important to the way that the Denver Nuggets operate on defense.
Steph Is doesn't need to be hidden all the time on defense for the Warriors,
but they're not going to put him in these super difficult matchups. They
have players that allow them to work around that. Where he's not going to
be the player and guarding point of attack NonStop. That's not his fault.
Again, I think his value on offense speaks for herself and what he does
on defense. He's not going to hurt you, and that bears out in
the on off splits. Don't cite individual defensive raiding, please, We've seen
it cited as a reason for why Steff is this two way player this season.
I beg you to just don't do that, but Yokich is He's gonna
just assume more difficult assignments when the Nuggets want to go aggressive in pick and
roll, which is I think I was looking at a chart of the most
aggressive pick and roll coverages, not the top and leave, but I think
it's fairly often he's going to be a part of that. And I don't
think that he's a great defender. I think he hovers somewhere between, you
know, on any given nights, slightly made on his best nights, he's
slightly above average. On his worst nights, he can be detrimental. But
he's probably hovering around closer to average or slightly above average for most of this
season. I just think knowing that and then the workload he needs to shoulder
on offense. It's similar to the argument we would have made for Johannis ATTENDACOOPO
in the past. I don't think Yokich is having anywhere near the same impact
as Jannis on defense in those years. Jannis could be a defensive Player of
the Year candidate this season. That's just my logic as of right now.
But I really can't decide between Stephan Yokich. This is written in pencil or
written in sad subject to change whatever I wouldn't whoever you pick, I'm not
arguing. I think other people that deserve consideration here. Jannis would be third
for me. Kd is four. I think the Rosen is fifth. But
there's also names like John Morant, Donovan Mitchel, Rudy Gobert, even Fred
van Fleet. Guys, take a look at Fred van Fleet's mvpks. They're
just this season. He's been spectacular this year. Those are names that's bring
to mind. People are gonna eventually make a for Lebron James if the Lakers
continue to play better. I don't know that he's in my top seven right
now. He's definitely not in my top five. But those are people that
could deserve some consideration on the back of the ballot. That's a look.
The MVP people complain about talking about it this early. It's a fluid discussion
in certain seasons. This isn't just one of those years where it was,
you know, set in Stone after game twelve or whatever. This is a
real debate between Stephan, Yokich and I don't think either of them or I
don't think they collectively have run away with the award to the extent that you
can say, oh, Yannis or KD doesn't deserve it. And there will
be the Bulls finished with the best record in the East and Themar's playing like
this, there will be some people that throw him up there too. So
those are pretty solidly my top five, but I could see some of that
changing. I think I think in the end my top three you're gonna end
up being Yoki, Stephan, Yannis. I don't know if it'll be in
that order, but I do think those just looking at I know Jannis hasn't
played as much as Katie this year, but something catastrophic, I think those
are gonna wind up being the top three. Again, I don't think this
is like etched in Marble let's move on to something else. This question comes
from Sam. Will Lamello be an All Star this year? That's an interesting
question. A huge part of it is dependent on you know, he's not
going to be a starter. I think those that's I think Trey Young is
gonna get a starting spot in these This is the best way to do it.
And look, let's also just be clear, LaMelo Ball does have an
All Star case. He is this season. He's averaging nineteen point three points
per game, seven point eight assists, even one point seven steals. I
don't think he's a good defender yet. He probably needs to get stronger before
he's an asset. But he's saying thirty eight point four percent of his three's
on a higher volume per thirty six minutes. There two points forty five point
five percent down from last year. But he takes some difficult twos when you're
just looking at the some of the floaters and even the difficult finishes. If
he gets stronger, I think that is clip around the rim will improve.
He's up this three throw percentage doesn't get to the rim, he doesn't get
to the eaves. A lot of Tony He's actually getting there less than last
season, but he's shoting eighty seven point six percent from the foul line.
This guy is a transcendent playmaker, and Charlotte's offense is like almost net neutral
with him on the court. I think he improves it by one and a
half points per one hundred possessions. But he's just very much the identity that
they assume when they're on the court, and he is that important and that
good. So he absolutely belonged to the discussion. Let's talk about who makes
it. The starters are gonna be Trey Young, and then if it's me
personally, Demard Rozen should be a forward and should make it as in the
front court, sorry, and should make it as a front court starter.
And then I would put Zach Lavine as the other starter. That being said,
I do think people are gonna end up shoehorning De Rosen into the guard
spots. And I think even the last voting showed that. Again COVID brains,
I didn't look at. I think the most recent ballots, let's just
Trey Young and Zach Lavine or locks. For me, I think the other
back court lock is Fred van Fleet. In my eyes, Jimmy Butler is
gonna end up getting in as a backcourt. So that's four right there.
If you end up throwing TOMRDA Rosen in, there is a fifth. I
would argue, even though there's the wild card spots in play, you're guaranteed
maybe six at most guard spots. And then it probably comes down between LaMelo
Ball, Kyle Lowry, Darius Garland. I don't know if I'm forgetting anybody
else here of those three. Do I think that LaMelo deserves it? That's
an interesting one, and this is something I promise I gave a thought before
even you know, segueing into this podcast. I think I would give it
to LaMelo. Do I think now that he's going to be an All Star?
I'd probably say no, just because it will come down to the coaches
picking him, and I think they're probably more likely to go with a Kyle
Lowry or Drew Holiday if it comes between my him and a Darius Garland decision.
Just I do think coach's favor experience instan maybe they give it him.
I honestly, I honestly don't know. I would pick him among the group
that we sort of just listed, maybe just barely. I do think Drew's
case is going to be stronger than not. I ultimately don't think he'll get
it, and I hope he does because this game is so well suited for
the Austar game. I think a lot of it also just hinges on what
is Damar going to enter ass and we'll kind of just have to go from
there. But that's a great valid question. I'm gonna say he should be
in the All Star Game and predict that he's not, and I'll probably flip
flop on that, like eight or nine more times, reefs, will any
star currently in the league wins six or more rings? Look, Lebron has
four, and so I think he's the one that you have to say is
most likely to get it. Here's and might I would just lean towards nope,
because it feels like, can I imagine Lebron in his age thirty seventh
season going to win another two titles from here? Probably not. What is
interesting is if the question was who's more likely to win six titles before where
they retire, is its Steph or Lebron? And it comes down to how
confident you are that Lebron is on a team for the next few years.
Maybe he has, Maybe Steph has two or three seasons more than Lebron to
sort of make up the one ring gap that separates them. Do you trust
the war Let's say, if it's Stephen's a life long Warrior, do you
trust them to sort of bridge into the future when he's maybe not your number
one option or not your best player, to assemble the title team around him?
Or do you do you trust the Lakers or to build that type of
team around Lebron or do you trust him to go out and find that team
that will That is a tougher one for me. I might mean just because
the way the Warriors are sitting right now, Like if they hit on James,
Wiseman, Cominga and Moody, No, Like what if Comingas just just
turned What if one of those guys is a transcended superstars most likely and May's
going to be comingo or maybe they're able to flip those guys for someone who's
just younger to keep the window open. Is forever the second best player on
that team is Draymond and Clay Age, and you're still relying on Steph.
But I might be more tempted to say that Steph is more likely to win
six rings than lebron Is, but he already has four, so it's it's
a matter of getting to two two more. I don't know who I would
pick to win more than six, or even else to get to six right
now, because you just look at the league and there's no just runaway freight
train in existence. Even when you sort of look at some of the younger
guys who project as the you know, the face of the league, the
Bucks, it's not necessarily set up. And I'm not saying Jannis is young,
but it's not necessarily set up for them to run the tables. In
the East. Lugdanchich is one of the most promising young players, and the
Maverick clearly are not set up to just win titles earlier than not in his
career. He may have to wait another half decade or so before he gets
that legitimate opportunity. Trey Young, the table, the stage is clearly not
set in Atlanta for him to go bonkers and win rings. Same with Jason
Tatum or Jalen Brown wherever you want. In Boston. I mean, we're
dealing with all these got Lamello and Charlotte. If you want to go to
these like newbies Jaw and even Memphis, who Yeah, they've done a great
job building around him, but it's hard to spot aside from a step or
Lebron type of case. And I guess, look, if you're gonna say
Steph, technically it could be Clay and Draymond getting to six as well.
But aside from the Warriors core or Lebron, I don't necessarily know who else
you would pick for six. If anyone else has an answer and justification,
you can get at me on Twitter at Dan for Valley Melverk asked which rookie
do you think most deserves to be getting more minutes? I still think the
answer is Alprune Shang Gun, and before his ankle injury and the techneames leading
up to it, he was playing twenty one point nine minutes per game.
That's not enough. I know you have Christian Wood and Daniel Tys that that
really shouldn't stop you even a little bit. I don't know, you know,
I guess you can understand. Maybe I don't understand why Tye is there,
but you don't really need to justify playing Tights more than thirteen fifteen minutes
a game, even with his salary at this point, and I think you
can also play Shane Good a lot with Tye more so offensively that excuse me,
you could play Shane Goud with either one of the Biggs where was I
don't necessarily love the tights would fit and the stats are gonna share that out,
So yeah, it's still Shane Goo for me. They also have Usman
Gruba on that team, which he's played one hundred minutes total this season across
fourteen appearances we record this podcast, I get the sentiment of they just don't
think he's ready, and he's spent some time in the G League, but
you're bad, Like just cut him loose, like, let's see more Usman
Gruba. I know that trial by fire isn't necessarily a way to guarantee development,
but I do think those reps are important, and they do, in
my eyes, have the roster to where he should be getting more run as
someone who can log minutes to be four, maybe even as a as a
small ball type type five, and just let him explore what is his defensive
We're stillity going to bring you and try to figure out how you can and
plan to use him on the offensive end. Two more guys that's bring to
mind. I think Quentin Grimes in New York, just in the flashes that
he's shown of the defensive hustle, they need a He is a smaller wing,
but they need a wing of that ilk unless they're gonna trade for one,
and I would this would be against everything san Antonio always does. But
can we cut Josh Primo loose in the He just has a lot of wiggle
on offense and I really want to see him get more on ball reps and
more just NBA reps in general. I will say I didn't consider guys that
you can't really pick where there's not a clear path to their playing time,
Like Quentin Grimes can bounce someone in New York shortation and it shouldn't be a
big deal. But you look at say James book Knight in Charlotte, you
can't just you know, who are you playing him over in Charlotte And don't
say a big you want you want to play him over Mason Plumber Like that's
not really gonna work. You would have to think trade people out of their
spots because he there's just actual people in front of him that are that are
more effective than he would be. Even if you're not happy with the way
Charlotte is performing on a night tonight basis, But yeah, those are the
ones that stand out. I still think it's Shane whod Is the most egregious
one I would like to see. Grimes might be tough, but like the
Knicks are just such a roller coaster ride on a night tonight bassis like bucket,
Like, let's see more Grimes. But I do think the Spurs could.
Even though they have a ton of perimeter players, they have effectively,
you know, put Jock Jack Landell appoints in front of Thaddeus Young for stretch
of the season, like we can put we can afford to see Josh Primo
a little bit more. Paolo asked, this is a longer one. Call
me a reactionarybod. I just watched r J Barrett score sixteen points in nine
minutes. The only person that could stop him with Julius Randall and his zaiso
is what do you think happens first Randall hands the keys to r J Barrett
on offense or r J leaves New York. I'm not really suggesting that r
J is a superstar who's better than Randall. It's more so a complaint at
Randall taking tough shots and passing mid jump instead of passing it up to RJ.
Okay. So we talked about I think the last podcast we released actually
at this point was with Andrew Claudio Nick's film School about the Knicks, and
we went deeper into what RJ. Barrett's role is and what it could theoretically
be. I am with you, Paolo that RJ. Barrett should have a
bigger role on offense. I don't know that it's Julius Randall's fault. To
the extent that this is on Tom Thibodeau to establish a pecking letter on offense,
He's decided to give Julius Randall a ton of influence on the offense.
I think that went into their initial benching of Kemba Walker in the first place,
because Tibbs effectively decided that Randall needed to have the ball. Even more
so, if you're going to make that shift, it's going to take a
concession on Randall's part, or just a change to the excuse me still not
feeling great, a change to the makeup of the roster. And I don't
know that the Knicks, this was my fear leading into the season, are
really built for RJ to plumb the depths of his offense. Has he necessarily
done anything consistently enough to warrant more on ball control aside from the flashes he's
shown in the past few games where he's really attacked the rim. In their
game against oh Man, I can't remember who it was, but he recently
tied a career high for made shots inside four feet at the rim in a
game. So when he's aggressive like that, it's easy to really give him
the ball. And then, of course the couple of games that Julius Randall
missed, we saw him get more control. Look, he is below the
fortieth percent tile and isoe efficiency below the fortieth percent tile and scoring as the
pick and roll ball handler, he's a sub thirty five effective field goal percentage
on his pull up jumpers. I understand the reticence to give him more on
ball control, but this is year three. It's time to sort of understand
more of what you have in him, or do you think he's going to
be more of just a situational offensive player who's probably gonna hurt hurt. Defense
is more off the catch assuming his corner three start to fall down in a
higher clip and then maybe he'll do some attacking. I think what the Knicks
could do to try and to you know, see the best of both worlds
is untether his minutes to Julius Randol more often. This number includes the games
that Julius Randol missed and RJ played, and I think it was only two
or three games, but still that's a healthy amount. Fewer than fifteen percent
of RJ's possessions this season have come without Randall on the floor. I think
that number can stand to be higher. Just completely separate them and stagger their
minutes. See more r J plus bench units that really shouldn't hurt your rotation
at all, especially while Derrick Rose is out recovering from his latest surgery.
So that is something they can and should try. I don't know if they
will. We've seen RJ be a little bit more aggressive even with Randol on
the court in the past week or so, and I don't even know if
RJ will eventually be the player that can run an offense, run pick and
roll. You can trust as a passer, but it's really time to explore
the depths of that game. He's extension eligible this summer. You want to
have a better grasp of the ceiling on this player, because to me,
he still is probably the single most important player in that building. He remains
that swing prospect, the one that can really change the Knicks' trajectory. We
kind of know what Julius Randall is at this point. We know last year
was a flash in the pan relative to you know, second team All NBA
status. He's probably better than he's been over all this season. But if
he lies somewhere in between, you still need that, you know, swing
prospect, that swing piece, that player who could develop into let's say,
at least a number two on a title team to really change your fortunes.
That's still r J. Barrett at this point, unless you think it's Manual
Quickly or Obi toppin a Quentin Grimes tous McBride. I still think, barring
a trade, it's going to it's RJ. Barrett. Gives you the best
shot of that right now. Berb asked, who is better Joel Embiide at
the free throw line or Bradley Beal. It's look, when you're looking at
your frequency, there's just no competing with Joel Embiid his free throw attempt rate,
which is the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt is point
five seven seven, down from point six one zero last year. That is
to say it's knocked down much at all, and given them new officiating rules,
the whistle has not changed a bunch for him, and he is shooting
on his free throw attempts eighty point nine percent, which is down from last
year, but he's still above eighty percent for his career. Bradley Beale is
normally better at getting to the foul line, but I think the rule,
the way, or the d emphasis on certain calls from the officials that's hurt
him. His free throw a tempt rate is point two four seven. That's
down from point three three two and pales in comparison to the past few years
of his career. He is shooting a higher clip at the fo I know
he's at eighty three point six percent, but I think, look, if
you let's just go by straight makes per let's do it per thirty six minutes.
Bradleybys giving you four point one free throws per thirty six minutes made Joe
Joel the beat is giving you nine, So he's more than doubling up the
makes there just the volume in which he gets to the foul line, he
is the more valuable free throw shooter Ryless, Since no one on the Jazz
not named Golbaron can stay in front of their man on dece VENs, are
there any quick defenders that might be available to them, Ryles? Didn't you
hear they just signed Daniel House they fix their problems? No? I think,
Look, they're set up to make a trade, and I wrote about
this. I think they've shown signs that they might be willing to make a
bigger swing. A lot of people have pointed to them hiring Danny Ainge as
evidence they might do that. He is the king of almost I don't know
that that in first he would make a bigger swing. But they've even run
the ball in the post the Rudy game more often during the bench heavy units,
and I think that just shows that maybe they're preparing for a change in
fensive structure at points. What that means to me is are they trying to
get by without upgrading the backup point guard spot because Trent Forrest is not the
answer there, or are they maybe thinking about moving a Joe Ingles on his
expiring deal or moving a Jordan Clarkson, who is not the best facilitator but
gives you a lot of from scratch creation by process of elimination. In the
piece I wrote, you can check that out at bleacher report dot com just
search my name. It'll be one of the two or three most recent pieces
I published. I wrote about one player from every team that I think should
be traded this year. If I were the you know, emperor of the
front office, whatever the titles are now. I ended up at Jordan Clarkson
just because I think between his age he has two years of a reasonable number
left on his contract and just a from scratch scoring, he might be more
interesting. But I also recognize that Joe Ingles is expiring contract. He's been
all over the place this year, but he can still shoot give you secondary
playmaking. Maybe he's more appealing to certain teams a name that I just have
circled for them. Some people are naming Marcus Smart or them trying to figure
out a way to step ladder up to a Harrison Barnes or Jeremy Grant that
would take the market on pretty much all three of those players in my eyes,
and imploding because the Jazz can't trade the earliest first round pick. I
believe they can trade is in twenty and twenty six, and that's assuming their
first two obligations this season and then in twenty twenty four that those two obligations
convey I just a team. Teams are gonna be able to beat those offers.
Josh Richardson in Boston, they signed him to an extension, but he
could still be traded because he didn't get this this huge raise and he's quietly
had a pretty good year shooting thirty nine plus percent from three. But he
gives you defense from the point of attack all the way up to some of
these bigger assignments. And so it depends on what Boston wants. Their season
is quickly going off the rails. If you're not going to move down round
and Marcus Smart though, and if you like you know you have Romeo Langford,
even Aaronnai Smith. I think I'm officially higher on Romeo lank for moving
forward in the Smith. But whatever you have minutes to sort of play around
with and Phil the wings, maybe you're willing to move with Josh Richardson for
compensation that lowers your tax bill this year, if not get you out of
it. Utah's not going to get them out of it entirely, but lowers
your tax bill, maybe pick up some future assets or even just juices up
your offense. And Jordan Clarkson for Josh Richardson swap works in theory. Maybe
you have to send Jared Butler to Boston in that scenario, or even if
it's a second round pick, or is it a pick swap, maybe it's
taking back another smaller salary to cut their tax bill in Utah has the roster
flexibility to do that. I don't know if they'd be interested in Clarkson.
They probably need someone who's a better passer. Slash puts more pressure on the
rim. I do think he would help their offense. And knowing that Dennis
Shrewder is a goner after this season, if not in the middle of this
year, should they trade him because they'll be a non bird free agent.
Perhaps that makes him more appealing. They could also have interest in Joe Ingles,
just an expiring contract. He is, you know, probably becomes what
they're second or third best pass around the team once he arrives there can still
shoot. I think he's lost a few steps on defense, but they have
the talent to sort of cover up for that Joe Ingles plus Jared Butler for
Josh richards Maybe you're probably need to take back another salary from Boston because they're
not gonna want to take on salary, and that scenario, you could you
expand this too. And you know, one of the trades that that I
came up with was Boston gets Joe Angeles Jared Butler, Memphis is twenty twenty
two second a twenty twenty three swap from Utah, and then Utah gets Josh
Richardson and Dennis Shrewder. The leverage Boston has what Shruder is very minimal because
he can just leave after this season given his non bird rights. He's just
not resigning for one hundred and twenty percent raise off his sub six million dollars
salary. Would it take the twenty twenty six first round pick to get this
deal done instead of that swap or that Memphis twenty twenty two second. I
don't know, but I would consider it if i'm Utah. That's that's the
framework if you want to swing bigger but sort of the bigger, quicker wing
to wrap this up that I think they could target. Is it Josh Richardson
because I really think he is sort of a middle end option that could prove
gettable for them. There are other like guys that they could look at.
You know, how does Robert Covington come from Portland? At this point,
I just don't know that he is going to be effective enough in the in
one on one situations to do any sort of to make any sort of real
impact or move Utah's needle on defense if that's what they're looking for, which
is also the challenge to the Jazz here. I don't know that you should
make a move. I've thought about Tory Craig, which yeah, he would
help situationally, but you want someone who you know can either can one crack
an eight or nine man rotation in the playoffs or preferably be a part of
your closing lineups. And we know that Tory Craig probably won't be a part
of many closing lineups, would be sort of a fringe player when it comes
to cracking the rotation. And so I don't think they're gonna have the Jews
to get a Marcus Smart or Jeremy Grant or Harrison Barnes. And so that's
how Josh Diricherson feels like a not even a compromise, but someone who they
could feasibly get that drastically improves their title chances. Like if you put if
all you're giving up in terms of immediate players is Clarkson or Angles and you're
getting Josh Fritchinson. To me, this might not be popular with Utah fans,
but if that's the player that you're getting for one of those two guys,
and there's other stuff, but it's not anyone who's mission critical to what
you're doing. Now, I think the Jazz become you know, their top
five title favorite right now. I would say top six the lowest they probably
entered the top three at that point. Perhaps you have Golden State and Phoenix
I'm a walking in front of him still, but who else. I just
forget about where they would rank on the ladder. I think getting a Josh
Richardson exponentially improves their their overall title chances. And look for anyone who's saying
that they can move Bunyon mcdonovitch to make the bigger move. My whole thing
is you have a wing six, seven, sixty eight whatever, who is
averaging over seventeen points per game on better than sixty two shooting. Please please
don't overthink this like you keep that guy, and I do think your offense
is good enough in large part because of him Conley Mitchell to withstand the loss
of an Ingles or a Jordan Clarkson. So that's where I end up with
on the Jazz, a promising team that feels eight Josh Richardson away from being
a born line title favorite. I am running out of steam here, so
let's get through a couple of these last questions. Bowls Film Room asked,
would you rather have role players being incredibly specialized like a great three point shooter,
but shitty like when it comes to zone defense, or just good overall.
That's a great question. I just it depends on the level of shitty
you're talking about everywhere else? Is this you have Steve Novak as a shooter
and then like Steve Novak everywhere else, Because no, I'd rather have the
overall role player. But is this a a Duncan Robinson or even a Davis
Burton's type situation? I would probably say a Davis Bretons or Duncan Robinson,
although Davis Preton's is not making a great case for this this season. So
I'm gonna go with the the role player who is more specialized or great in
one area and not so much with the others. I know some people might
say that Duncan Robinson can be okay in zone defense, give me how Miami
rolls it out. So I'll just I'll throw out the you know, I'll
throw out the Thomas Burton's or you know, does Buddy Hill to even fall
into this category is just in incandesce and shooter in basically any method imaginable.
But are you going to trust him to effectively create off the dribble? Are
you going to trust him to play defense? I would still rather have that
player. I think, you know his particular price point when you're getting into
salaries and contracts. That's definitely important context. But just in a vacuum,
I think I would rather have the elite skill set rather than a more well
rounded or replacement level player type skill set across a bunch of different areas.
But that's a That was a good question, Bullshilm Room, Thank you for
it. Smith asked which who has the worst defensive three point percentage? I
will say this is I don't know that they're seth part. Now, the
athletic has gone through this a lot. He calls the Jedi three point defense
that teams. You know, historically they have not been able to actually impact
their opponents three point percentage. So the worst three point defense this year belongs
to the Orlando Magic. They're allowing thirty nine percent shooting from three. Overall,
they're dead last. Also in above the break three point shooting at thirty
eight percent. The worst corner three point defense actually belongs to Chicago. Opponents
are shooting. This can't be right. This can't be right. I need
to I'm refreshing this page because this number is just absurd. Nope, Chicago
is allowing a post you forty nine point six percent on quarner three pointers.
Now, you can look at the frequency of that matters. Their eighth in
the frequency with which they allow corner three so they're not allowing the ton.
But opponents this season have shot forty nine point six percent in the corners against
the Bill sixty one hundred and twenty one. That is astronomical. I don't
know how much that actually matters, but yes, the worst three point defense
in the league overall is Orlando. If we want to just look at the
bottom five. Portland's twenty ninth, Miami's twenty eighth, Toronto's twenty seventh,
and Chicago is twenty six. Now, this doesn't necessarily have to infer anything
about how good the defense is overall, because when you look at Chicago is
a top ten defense right now. Miami is also a top ten defense right
now. So these teams that have been quote unquote bad in allowing three point
shooting, and even Toronto, I think it's been on the defensive uptick,
have they not of late? There other twentieth defensive ficialty So you can be
and look. Phoenix, I think allows a pretty high clip from three as
well. If I'm not mistaken. Maybe it was just above the break.
No, I guess I'm just maybe it was from the corners. No,
I'm just I'm making shit up. At this point, I thought Phoenix was
low. Maybe I was just misreading. I knew I was caught off guard
a little bit when I saw it. So yeah, and I think the
best three point defense in the league this season comes from the Clippers, the
Calves, the Warriors, the Nets, and the Mavericks. I would argue
the Nets specifically they're in for just some reversal when it comes to their defensive
metrics. You look at they've gotten lucky with opponent shooting a ton basically from
every area on the court this year. But yeah, I don't I don't
know how much you can watch and then look at how much these teams are
doing to maybe prevent corner three point looks or which players are taking the attempts
from three. I think defensive shot profiles are more indicative of defensive talent rather
than necessarily three point accuracy. If you're limiting the number of three your opponents
are taking and they're turning into mid range jumpers and it's not you know,
Kevin Durant taking these mid range jumpers all the time, I think that you
can infer more about the defense from that. But yes, those are the
worst three point defenses on the season. As I just name two questions more,
can I get through them before I just faint? Peja asked, is
there a metric to tell if a player is impacting negatively his team's winning odds?
While having filled the stat sheet, why do you think this metric should
be counted? In Westbrook, Unix. That's a little fucked up. I'll
be it accurate now I don't even want to say ironically, but in Predictable
has a stack called estimated win expected win probability added. Excuse me, it
is the win probability added one would expect based on a player's body score stats.
Westbrook ranks dead last in this stat if you just go with wind probability
added where they're looking at it through the lens. When they're looking at through
the lens of wind probability added or subtracted by player due to made slash miss
shots, getting fouled, made slash miss free throws, and turning the ball
over. Josh Giddy ranks dead last and Westbrook is second to last, So
he comes up theoretically as the worst or second worst or second the most or
second most damaging high volume player. Right now, I think there's a lot
of stuff that goes into that. Draymond Green does not rank favorably in these
stats, did over Julius Randall, although that probably makes a lot of sense.
This season, there is a point where volume, though, can be
damaging to your team. You're gonna see a lot of rookies ranked towards the
bottom of these metrics. But like anyone anything that's gonna say Draymond Green is
one of the least impactful players when it comes to winning. I think it's
probably what you're seeing on offense a little too heavily. So even if we
view this though through an offensive prism, you know, Westbrook has been at
points fairly damaging for the Lakers, even through his higher stints. The turnovers
has just been an issue. There's a big deal made because he had zero
turnovers for the first time in like four hundred and something games. But he
came on two assists though, And I don't want to drag him. I'm
just saying there are elements of his game that I've always been damaging and if
you amplify them, they're gonna be even more damaging than usual. So,
Paige, I know you were being tugget cheek here, but that was a
real chat, real stat estimated when probability added, and Westbrook ranks dead last
in the league. And that's that per in predictable. Final question from James,
a throwback question that has probably been asked a bunch of times moving on
on this podcast, if the thundertraded Westbrook instead of Harden, do you think
they would have won a championship. That's a tough question because does James Harden
becomes James Does James Harden become James Harden in Oklahoma City, even if Westbrook's
not there, I do not know, because he was given the keys to
the offense Houston. I think if you moved Westbrook, if that was even
a decision, and I don't think it was a Baka versus Harden. It
was never Russ versus hard in real time. How'd you moved Russ? It
was probably with the intention of giving Kevin Durant and even larger on ball roll.
I don't know if it would have allowed you to turn James Harden into
the single highest uses player in basketball for his duration like he was in Houston.
Now, you can say that Russ was similarly high volume and he played
alongside KD for a number of years, but that was sort of known,
that was his role. I don't know if Okac ever would have viewed James
Harden in that same light, even if he made the transition to star form,
and so I think ultimately that they that I can't view. I can't
say if you told me James Harden became James Harden that he was in Houston,
Oklahoma City, I'd say yes, but he also had his own playoff
foibles in Houston, so there's nothing guaranteed there, and I think we need
to look back. Okay, see they make it to the finals in two
thousand twelve with everybody, and then they were favorites or should have been favorites
a number of time after that. Number of times after that, even if
you're not factoring in that blown three to one lead against the Warriors in twenty
sixteen, there was I think two postseasons where Russ ended up getting injured.
There was one where they had a Kevin Durant injury, then a search of
back injury. I think the run of bad luck and wound up hurting them
more than trading James Harden instead of Russ. And I think you could even
make that as all my notifications are going off here, I think you could
even make that same case when it comes to, you know, the Hard
versus Abaca argument. Had they traded Abaca instead of James Harden and kept those
three, we would like to say, well, does that make it more
likely that that Kevin Durant is staying in Oklahoma City? Long term or what
if? What if? What if James Harden was James Harden Olman's And then,
of course you might have viewed them as title favorites at that point or
assumed that they would have won title as I'm just stumbling through this because my
text messages are blowing up for no reason. In particular, I apologize more
of the story is. I don't think we can just say that had you
traded Westbrook instead of James Harden, the Thunder would have won a title.
I think the more effective argument, if you want to make it, would
be had they kept hardened, is it less likely that Katie would have eventually
wanted out? Would it? Would he have clashed less functionally with Russell Westbrook
with James Harden than Russell Westbrook. I think you can make that case as
a yes. But we also don't know how much Russ really factored into Katie
leaving. Maybe he was still just graded about the fact they broke up those
three in the first place, or didn't pay Harden. So I don't think
it's so this question. I really think it's it's it's a very good thought
exercise, but I'm I don't think that trading Russ instead of Harden would have
guaranteed the Thunder a title. What did they give them a better shot?
At one point? I mean maybe it's just hard to envision what Harden's role
ever would have looked like an okay See had he stayed there, whether it
was with both Russ and Katie or just Kad. I think the more salient
point would be, could Harden have been good enough and gotten along with Katie
enough or not? Again, let's just say functionally, I don't even want
to say off the court, emotionally whatever. Could he have functionally clashed less
or been more of a seamless fit next to Durant than Russ? And if
the answer to that is yes, which I think is fine, then maybe
it's more like that both of them stayed in okay See and you would want
a title. You could also look at it through the lens of you know
what happens if let's say everything unfolds as planned, but you wind up Russ
is the one that leaves. You traded Russ. Excuse me, I think
Katie leaves anyway, but you end up getting Paul George and it's a Paul
George James Harden pairing and James Harden does turn into James Harden at this point,
that team probably would have given you a better shot at a title.
So I don't mean to say that had they traded Russ instead of Harden,
Okacy would have had a better shot after Kevin Durantant left. But that would
be another part of this puzzle. I think, if you're gonna tell me,
Harden, once those two guys are gone, he would have gotten at
least the one season without KD and without Russ, and he had turned into
Harden and they go out and they trade for Paul George. Hey, maybe
that's still a fun one. I would love to know what everybody else thinks
about this. Again, Get at me on Twitter at damp Valley. Follow
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out to the one, the Only, Frank Nilo Kina