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It's time for another episode of Chris
with Zach Abraham, who is the chief

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investment officer at Bulwark Capital Management and
he is our go to guy when it

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comes to all things finance and money
and banking and mortgage related. Um,

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Zach, we got to meet you
in person this past weekend at our meet

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and Greed and that was so much
fun. Yes, pleasure, We had

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a we had a great time.
We were talking afterwards about, UM,

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you know, I've been to several
of these. We we do local radio

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and we do radio show in Phoenix, in Portland and Seattle and so,

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and we've done promo work with other
people that do shows and podcasts and things

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like that. So I thought I
was prepared. Yeah, your guys as

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listeners take it to a whole other
level. Man. First of all,

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they get down right, they like, yeah we can, we can party.

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We come to party. Yeah,
there was there was plenty of good

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times being had by everybody. Um, and then just the intensity, I

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mean, the great people. I
really enjoyed meeting all of them. But

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yeah, that was they weren't messing
around. Man. When I saw that

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dance when we got there, there
was the dance for it. I was

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like, no one's gonna dance,
you know, Oh, underestimate them,

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underestimate them. I walked outside and
I was talking to somebody for like fifteen

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or twenty minutes. I came back
inside and you could like an eight year

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old couldn't have fit on that dance
floor. I mean it was just you

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know, then their body surfing you
guys back and forth, you know,

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throwing Amy Joe up in the air
doing heart. I mean, I yeah,

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it was yeah. I thought I
thought I went to greeting meat and

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it was like it was like a
three ring circus, you know. It

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was. Yeah, It's like it's
like all of a sudden that you start

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hearing the Chicken dance, and it's
it's funny because the DJ. The DJ's

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like, listen, you're gonna lose
people with the Chicken dance. And it's

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like, I don't think you understand
this crowd. You're not gonna lose anybody.

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Yeah, I mean you could have. I mean I think probably like

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the only thing that you could have
put like if you put on the only

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way you to stop that party is
if you to run like like audio from

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a Biden speech or or or yeah, put on some kind of like anti

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American tune or something like that.
Other than that, I mean, you

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could have thrown nurse, you know, you could have thrown like children's songs

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at them and that party exactly we've
got. We've got a great group and

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hopefully you got a lot of attention
from the folks that attended. What kind

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of questions were people asking you?
What kind of conversations got started? You

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know it's funny because, um,
in a lot of ways, it felt

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like we were talking to our own
clients. You know, a lot of

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a lot of the questions about you
know, what's going on, markets rallying,

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but things look really scary? What
about gold? Um? You know,

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a lot of a lot of the
same questions that we get. And

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I think it's on a lot of
people's minds. Um, you know,

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just because I think if you look
at the economy in the markets right now,

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I and I could be wrong,
but we studied this pretty extensively.

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I don't think that you've seen a
period of time where you have as many

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different conflicting cross currents going on and
so um, you know, leads to

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a lot of confusions. So the
number one thing was, you know,

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trajectory. Uh, you know,
what's the economy doing? Like I said,

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gold, is it a good time
to buy bonds? Um? You

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know, all those all those questions. I think people are really concerned.

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And um, you know, I
think I think the thing that and they

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echoed this at the meeting or at
the meet and greet that I was at

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with you guys as well, which
is I think there's just a lot of

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confusion on what to think, you
know, meaning, is this kind of

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the bottom where we should be buying
here despite the fact that things look kind

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of scary? Is this not?
You know what I mean? There's just

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so many conflicting cross currents and um, yeah. And and what's funny is,

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you know, we certainly have our
takes and our opinions on it,

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but um, you know, to
be to be quite honest, this is

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why we do things the way that
we do them, because you get into

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periods of times like this in markets
where you know, things don't make sense

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and navigation. People are unsure.
People are unsure, and they're unsteady.

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That's happy at least, That's how
I when I talk to people about money,

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people are like, listen, if
you're not a financial expert. You

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just are unsteady and unsure anyway.
But then when you throw like this administration

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in the mix and you're like,
oh, oh yeez, I don't even

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you know, then you get really
unsteady and then you just feel stupid about

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this stuff. And that's yeah,
that's where people like you come in because

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we just don't know, Like,
it's hard to navigate any of this.

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It's just scary. It's yeah,
I've got a lot. I've got several

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clients who are very wealthy and who
who got that way by managing their own

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money, and they've yea, then
they've come to us waving the white flag,

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just saying, look, I don't
even I can't make heads or tails

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of this. I've been managing my
own money for forty years and I'm completely

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lost. Um. And you know, one of the things I tell them,

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I'm like, Okay, well,
I can't tell you exactly what's going

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on. We've got a pretty strong
take on it, and we have a

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pretty strong view of what's happening,
but you know, things change, and

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so that's why we focus on managing
risk guys, which is, you know,

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we get into an environment like this
and I think people don't really look

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at it correctly. And I think
this is kind of a good lesson for

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all of your listeners when you get
into situations like this, guys, when

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you go from accumulating to retirement as
opposed to going into retirement. When we're

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accumulating for retirement at age forty age
forty five, the name of the game

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is stack away as much cast as
possible. Right, market goes down,

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keep it money away, just keep
doing it. When you get up to

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where you're gonna retire, you're into
retirement, the goal needs to completely shift.

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Right. The game is not about
growing the stack the biggest anymore.

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The game is about taking that stack
and converting it into a lifetime income.

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Right. And by saying that I'm
not gonna I don't mean put it all

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in CDs, annuities or anything like
that. But the whole point of the

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money changes, right, or the
goal of the money changes now. It

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goes from growing it to creating income
flow out of it. And so one

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of the things we talk about with
our clients is when we get into uncertain

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environments like this, we are always
going to risk not making more money.

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Right, So, meaning when we're
investing, we have to court one of

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two risks at all times. We're
either courting the risk of substantial loss or

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or we're courting the risk of not
making as much. Right. So,

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part of our risk management approach is
when we get into environments like this where

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markets are really expensive, economy looks
really bad, and dealing with all these

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issues, we're just going to kind
of put the brakes on, and if

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we're wrong, it means we won't
make quite as much. But not making

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as much has never blown up anybody's
retirement, right, And so that's that.

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You know, you get into environments
like this and people don't know what

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to do. I get it right, because you've got the economy doing one

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thing, you've got stock markets doing
the opposite, and you know, usually

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those emotions are going to get involved
and make us do probably exactly the wrong

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thing exactly the wrong time, you
know. And it's not just retail investors.

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You see pro do it too,
And you know, that's why we

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put in those risk management principles.
So we're just like, hey, we're

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gonna be good either way. Um, but the one thing we're not going

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to risk here is substantial loss because
we just can't afford it. So what's

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going on with banks? Like banks
are freaking me out right now? Yeah?

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Yeah, and they and they should
be because it's a multi pronged problem.

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And I think that that's what makes
it so caustic, meaning the issue

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you have with banks. So if
people want to know why guys like me

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were you know, like madmen yelling
into a storm for like the last ten

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years about the Federal Reserve, it
was because they kept rates at zero percent

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for fifteen years. So it's not
just the level of rates, it's how

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long they stay at that level.
Because when you have rates at zero percent

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for fifteen years, everything gets refinanced, right, So debt instruments lose value

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as interest rates go up, right, And the only way central banks like

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the Fed can fight inflation is by
raising interest rates, which they just did

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ignite. So for fifteen years,
you've been tilling the soil was zero percent

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interest rates, right, which eventually
will lead to inflation, right, because

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you're just putting too much free money. That's why I say you're tilling the

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soil. Eventually inflation is going to
grow out of that soil. We just

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don't know when, right, But
you spent fifteen years tilling the soil,

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and the and the and the and
the site. The impact of that is

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a record amount of debt piled up
around the world paying record low interest rates.

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So when the inflation shows up,
there's only one way to fight it

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with higher infest rates. But when
you raise those interest rates, you crush

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the value of that debt that you've
created over the last fifteen years by twenty

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five to thirty five percent. So
those are all the safe type of assets

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that banks own. Okay, so
when you start raising rates going into a

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recession, what happens during a recession
depositor base. The depositor base at banks

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goes down, right. Why,
because people are pulling money out of savings.

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They're in a recession. The business
isn't making as much profit. So

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you're going into a recession, you're
jacking up rates because you've got forty year

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high inflation. That's knocking the value
down of the assets that the bank owns

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by about thirty percent. At the
same time, they're dealing with record depositor

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flight because people are afraid of banks
going under. And oh, by the

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way, we've got to blow up
in commercial office space pending that we haven't

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even started to price in and guess
which banks own all of that commercial office

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space paper. It's the same regional
banks that are getting killed right now.

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Right, So it's not going to
be a systemic issue like O eight,

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O nine. Some banks are have
done a good job. But when Biden

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was out there three weeks ago,
literally he did a press conference where he's

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like, this bank problem is behind
us. People came into my office to

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see what was going on because I
was laughing so hard when he said that,

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right, because he's such a well
yeah, and if you have a

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finance one on one level of understanding, you realize that those banks are going

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under because they own too much low
interest rate debt that just got blown up.

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Well, any bank that's been operating
for the last fifteen years owns too

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much of that debt. It's impossible, right, they have to own debt.

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They got to have they got to
have collateral underneath their you know,

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underneath everything they do. So by
definition, it's going to be low interest

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rate debt, which is going to
get slaughtered when interest rates go up.

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So so there will be so there
will be more of them. It's just

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that it's not going to be all
of them. But there will be going

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to be more of them, Um
Buffett. Warren Buffett was talking about this

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the other day where he's like,
yeah, there's going to be more bank

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failures like book it and and the
reason you know it is just because it's

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not a one off problem. And
then the other reason that you know it

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too is just to keep you little
little little little news flash for you guys.

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In the last two months, you
have had more. So when we

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say market capitalization, what we're referring
to is the entire value, like the

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market value of a bank. Right, so if we added up all a

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JP Morgan shares outstanding, that would
be their market cap. In the last

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two months, you've had more market
cap of banks failed than you had during

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the Great Financial Crisis, right wow. Yeah, And everybody's sitting there going

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is there going to be a recession? And you're like, a right,

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yeah, right, that's that's what
happens. So again, it's not going

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to be a systemic issue. But
with each bank failure, it puts more

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pressure on additional banks because you're tightening
credit. Right when banks are going under,

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they're not lending as much. Well, you've got a debt driven economy

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that's kind of a problem, right, So it is dice out there again.

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I don't think what they're going to
end up doing, you guys,

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is they're gonna end up backstopping and
guaranteeing every depositor. Okay, so wow,

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But then doesn't that just like make
the inflation with you? Oh yeah,

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because it's all the spending. Oh
yeah, yeah, you bet so.

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And look, and that's why we've
said the inflation is going to be

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with us for a long time because
we can go back, you know,

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you can go back twenty five hundred
years, okay. And what you see

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is that whenever a government faces a
very tough choice of okay, we either

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need to drastically cut spending and reduce
debt and do the painful things right that

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nobody wants to do. We've got
to do that being responsible, right,

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We got to do that, or
we've got to let inflation run hot.

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Because there's two ways you get rid
of debt, right. You either pay

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it off or you inflate it away. Right, Meaning if I own a

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million dollars worth of debt right now, but I know that the currency is

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going to lose seven to ten percent
of its value a year over the next

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ten years. Right by definition,
that debt is going to be a lot

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less onerous ten years from now,
because right inflation goes up the value of

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my daughter. So I'm so I
do financing. I take on the debt

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it today's rates or with today's dollars, but I plan on paying it back

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ten years from now with tomorrow's dollars, which are worth way less. So

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it's one of it. It's a
process we call inflating away the debt,

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and every government in history has opted
for the inflationary route because bottom line,

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it's easier to get reelected with an
inflation problem than it is a depression.

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You know. So I don't understand
how any how can any economists be a

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liberal? I just don't get it, understand, Like it just blows me

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away, Like how did AOC have
it? She has a degree in economics

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expert I love, but I mean, like, this is the thing.

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It just seems so I just don't
know. It's it's in our best interest

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to to be on the right side
of all of this, And it blows

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me away, like how anybody that
does what you do could be like,

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oh, yeah, that's a great
idea to just like spend our way and

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just like be completely irresponsible about it. Yeah, you know what I mean,

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It's just it's well, so,
yeah, I think this will make

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it make a little bit of sense. So when you're talking about something that

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I do. So, if you're
a money manager running a portfolio, the

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percentage of those that are conservative to
liberal, it's probably like eighty twenty conservative.

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And the reason it is is because
of what you just said, meaning

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if you think magically like a liberal, the markets aren't going to make any

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sense to you, right, Um. Yeah, But when you're talking about

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economists, economists are academics. Right. When you're an economist, where do

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you like the best job in the
world is to work for the government?

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Well, work for the Federal Reserve. But you know, and so you

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kind of have you have the same
issue in economics that you have in the

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medical industry, right with with all
the doctors saying all the known you know,

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recently, my my my daughter and
my wife are in Washington, DC

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right now, um for for for
her school trip, and they both got

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COVID right before they left, and
they were talking to a doctor and the

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doctor was telling them, telling my
daughter because she had at twelve years old,

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because she hadn't been vaccinated, she
had much higher risk than my wife.

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Well, what right, you could? It could not be more wrong,

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right, the data is conclusive the
other way. But but why does

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she say that? Because she's a
doctor and it's a peer review, academic

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type structured environment. Right, So
the most important thing for a doctor is

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not to get it right. It's
for your peers to think you're right.

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Oh my gosh, precisely, you're
so. Any economists are exactly the same,

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right, It's exactly the same time, and that's why they do this,

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right, That's why you know the
Fed did the same thing in oh

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nine. They waited too long to
hike than they hike too aggressively and then

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boom right. Um, so yeah, it's it makes it frustrating, but

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it's the world that we live in, feeling feelings over facts, feelings over

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facts where they have no business being
God, I mean, that's a very

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insensitive thing for you to say,
you know, Yes, I'm sorry,

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okay, okay, all right,
all right, good I figured you,

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um y'all. Zach Abraham, chief
investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management. Where

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can people find you and tune in
and get more information? About how you

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can help them. Yeah, so, I think the easiest way is probably

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to listen to our show or our
podcast which you which is Know your Risk

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Radio. You can just pull it
up on any Google or any podcast side,

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Apple iTunes, whatever the case.
Go to Bullward Capital Management dot com,

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know your Risk Radio dot com.
Uh, several different ways to find

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this. Yeah, one of those
will work great, as we'll find to

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talk to you that ladies. Thank
you so much, seem sime H