What's up, y'all is Drewski and I've teamed up with Mountain Dew to produce
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noocks listeners. I am Dappa Valley coming at you without my co host Andrew
d Belly this time. Have a mail bag for you guys. As we
lean into our coronavirus content during this NBA work stoppage, we are going to
try and cover this he as per usual, look at some long term stuff.
There's going to be more on that in a minute. We'll give you
some updates when whenever it's necessary, But we don't want this to just become
a constant reflection of what's happening in the league right now. If there's anything
new that we hear in the news, will of course excuse me using my
half Boston accent there for some reason, and no I'm not from Boston.
We will of course talk about it though, And to that point, seven
NBA players have tested positive for COVID nineteen. We know of four of them
because there were just four nets that reportedly tested positive. Kevin Durant told Sham
Sharania that he was one of them. Respect to him for coming out and
saying that, I know there's a bunch of weird things going around with the
hippo laws. Should NBA players have those test results be made public? Should
they not? I don't really know how I feel about that, but they
come into contact with so many people that I do think it's important for the
public to know. But you could also say that about any average joe if
they are just going about their daily law for a week before they were in
self quarantine or anything like that, they can come into contact with hundreds of
people and if not more, whereas with NBA players, of course, or
professional athletes and celebrities, perhaps it's in the thousand. Kevin Grant joins of
course, Christian Wood, Donovan Mitchell, and Rudy Gobert, who was the
first player to test positive. Again. That brings the total to seven NBA
players from three different teams, the Jazz, Pistons and Nets as of right
now. I'm sure there will be more cases that prop up from now before
we get started. Just the usual housekeeping notes. We'll try and make them
quicker. Just want to continue reminding, imploring, begging, pleading with everyone,
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If you've done all that, make sure you're giving us shout outs on Twitter,
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isolation and taking this whole coronavirus thing seriously. We of course hope you're safe
too. That is our everyday wish here at the Hardwood Knox podcast. Follow
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please do as many as you possibly can. With that, we'll get
into this mailbag. The first question, of which sort of touches on our
future plans, it comes from Twitter user What's Next? They ask what have
you guys been spending time working on during the season layoff. This was tweeted
to the at MBA math account as well at MBA Underscore Math. Follow them
too, Adam from All, the founder and editor in chief at MBA Math.
I know he's working on some stuff where there'll be a lot of historical
comparisons, maybe a rolling rating MVP throughout history. He's just working on a
bunch of different things. Will be on the lookout there on the Twitter account.
As for Hardwood Knox, our plan is still deliver at least two to
three episodes per week. We'll probably be heavier on guests. I already have
some lined up. Those episodes are probably going to start rolling out next week,
though we don't know what we're necessarily going to do. We might target
more national people to come on. I'm intrigued by the idea of going into
singular team deep dives, but we're trying to weigh the trade off where we
do give up a lot of listens when we do those pods, but it's
fun to do deep dives into every team. Also, though you run into
the problem, do you treat it as if this season's happening or not.
We'll figure that out as we go along, but we will be here.
We will be producing content, some big picture stuff, and again bringing on
guests as we see fit, So be on the lookout for that. Thank
you for that question. Hopefully everyone appreciates that little update from here. Peter
Nielsen asked, you lead by four with one minute remaining, what's the best
estimated value game wise a fifty percent two pointer or a forty percent three pointer.
There are so many factors that are going to come in to play here.
Aside from the math. You have to worry about how many timeouts your
team has remaining. If you're the squad that's trailing, what personnel is on
the court around this person, Are you more likely to grab that rebound if
if there's a long miss, or can you trust that maybe you can get
a second chance opportunity should that three pointer miss. All that said, I
go with the three pointer. If you're dealing with a forty percent shooter,
he's going to return you one point two points per shot, whereas a fifty
percent two point shooter is going to give you one point per look. And
just the math tends to work out there. Also, if you hit that
three, it puts a little bit less pressure on the defense because you can
still give up a score at the other end, as long as it's not
a three pointer, of course, and it will end up being a one
possession game. Still, However, with so much time left on the shot
cock, the context of what the two pointer is matters, because if we're
talking about a dunk or a layup, those are still going to be the
most efficient shots in basketball. And so if that's if that's available to you,
then you course go with it. But if we're talking about a two
point jump shot versus a three point shooter who's hit forty percent of his trays
on the year, I'm gonna go with the three pointer. In that scenario.
It's really a circumstantial question just as much as a math question. I
think it just unless the context really skews towards you're getting a gimme at the
rim in that situation as opposed to a post up mid range jumper. I
really think that the three pointer is probably the best move there. Interesting question
though. This question comes from Twitter user NBA discussion. They ask what do
you think of Julius Randall. I don't think he should be in the NBA.
Holy how, I am pretty low on Julius Randall. Wasn't a big
fan of that signing for the Knicks last summer. But I don't know that
we could say he doesn't belong in the NBA. Where you run into severe
problems with him is he's not a good enough shooter these days to play the
four twenty nine percent this season. Last year that was closer to being to
the league average around thirty four percent, And so if he was even there,
you can get away with a lot more when he's on the court,
but he still can be a mismatch with the ball in his hands, regardless
of what front court spot he's playing. He's like this barreling bowling ball when
he's getting up the floor, and he can even beat some guys off the
dribble in one on one situations in the half court. He's a pretty good
facilitator. Six point eight potential assists per game. That's right around a Paul
George or a shake Gilgist Alexander. If you're getting that out of your four
man's that's a pretty good harbinger. All that being said, though he's so
bad defensively, just so bad in basically any situation. He can hold his
own in some just straight one on ones, and maybe if he's going against
a low percentage post player who's not going to have a ton of counters,
he might be fine. And he does really have that size to him,
that that girth where he shouldn't be overpowered too much. But he's just not
going to be able to stick with guys off the dribble, not the most
aware guy off the ball, and where he's really going to start to hurt
you as if you put him at center. The solution here is really surround
him with shooters, four shooters and let him handle the ball, get up
and down the court. That a perfect situation for him. That being said,
you're going to give up a ton of looks at the rim when he
is your five man. This season, thirty seven percent of opponent shots are
coming at the rim when he's on the court. In general for the Knicks,
that's in the thirty first percentile, and opponents are shooting sixty seven point
three percent at the rim when he's on the floor. That's in the twelve
percent tile. That's not great. The numbers don't improve much, if at
all, when you're looking at him at the five this year. How The
thing there, though, is the Knicks really haven't played him at the five
two hundred and twelve possessions this year, and they've had a one twelve point
six defensive rating with him at center. That could most certainly be worse,
but it seems like more small, small sample shenanigans there. The Pelicans could
not survive defensively when he was at the five last year, and it really
showed. They allowed parades to the rim, it didn't matter how good they
were offensively. If he's at the five, you're going to give back almost
as much, if not more, defensively. In a different situation, though
I do think that he can work, it's just a matter of what team
is that right now. If you put him on the Boston Celtics and you
made him a center, I think that he'd be just fine because they have
so many good defenders. When you look at Jason Tatum, Jalen Brown,
Mark is Smart, even Gordon Hayward that they can throw on the wings and
really help him out. And you also have a Brown and smart and sometimes
Tatum who can handle some of the bigger assignments, so that might make his
job easier. He's not the type of player though, that you go to
such an extent to build around. If he can just fit in seamlessly into
that If he was a free agent and he was looking at tax player mid
level money or maybe even non tax player mid level money, that's something you
roll the dice on. But when you're dealing with him in that sixteen to
twenty million dollar price range, you can't view him as a building block.
I think that ship has definitively sailed for him. Next question comes from Twitter
user Jonathan Kelly. Would Draymond Green be good on any other team? Kind
of another loaded question there. Draymond Green has not been good this season,
and his effort has Waxed and Waned mostly Waned, I think because he understands
there's really nothing to play for in Golden State this year, and you've really
seen him not just on offense, not really look for his shop, but
just not be the same type of defensive anchor. He's still one of the
best defensive players of this era though, and maybe one of the best defensive
players ever if you watch him in the previous seasons. Just all the talking
he does on defense, the way that he can defend multiple players in a
single half court possession, it's really just absurd. And have his IQ on
the defensive end, where he can just kill you from anywhere, whether it's
as this help defender, whether it's as a secondary helper around the rim,
whether it's as the five man, whether it's just switching onto ball handlers who
should, in theory be quicker than him because they're smaller and maybe more explosive.
He can hold his own and basically any situation. We've seen that a
little bit this year too. When he's on the Warriors have a one to
eleven point one defensive rating with him the court that's in the forty nine percentile,
which when you look at their defensive personnel, it's not that bad.
They're still giving up a really bad effective a field goal percentage to opponents.
It would be in the thirtieth percentile. But they do a good job limiting
opportunities when he's around the rim, especially when he's not the loan quote unquote
big there, because he can if you're gonna have a you know when they
had Willie Calli Stein there, If you had him floating around the rim and
you knew you also dreaming on the court, it makes it much harder to
score there. But he's also a great five man on his own and to
help to be that deterrent, that's going to be a huge value to your
defense. By default. What really kills them when he's on the court,
though, and there might be more personnel this season, is that opponents are
shooting a ridiculous clip from mid range there. There's definitely got to be a
little bit of luck there, and you know they're gonna get a ton of
three point shots up. When you look at the Warriors as perimeter personnel,
they're not shooting especially high percentages against the Warriors from three when he's on the
court. But when you add the volume in they can hurt you there.
And then also, once Green is really at the rim, if he's your
primary line of defense there, he's not going to be great just because he's
six six baby with shoes on. And so the Warriors are giving up a
pretty high percentage at the rim when opponents actually get there and are shooting.
That's problematic. That being said, well, they really haven't gone to this
during the season this year, probably because they want to conserve him for next
season when they have Clay Thompson healthy Stephen Curry will be more available. Still,
they've allowed a really absurdly low defensive rating when he's at the five this
season, it's only been one hundred and nine possessions. But that that's really
a big deal where I think his value becomes more complicated. As on the
offensive end, he's shooting close to career worse from three this year, if
not a career worse. He's under thirty percent from deep since that twenty fifteen
twenty sixteen season where he was at thirty eight point eight percent. That was
clearly an outlier. But if you surround him with shooting, he can still
be a great passer and he's maybe more someone that you'd be willing to cater
to when you look at the type of passing he can get you. He's
averaging over six assists for the Warriors as it is, and a lot of
that has to do with usage, and he's not someone who's going to look
for his own shot too often. But if you just put him in a
more reliable situation and the Warriors have not been a great three point shooting team
this year, I think that he does then have supreme offensive value. Let's
swap him out in Houston for Russell Westbrook and what do you think happens?
I think a lot of the same results. Maybe you feel more comfortable putting
your center on Draymond Green because he's not going to assault you at the rim
the way Russell Westbrook does. But the way that he can pass the ball
coming off screens, maybe that incentivizes the Rockets to use more thick and roll
and just high ball screens. And in general, that's probably the model though,
that you need to have around Draymond Greens, that your centeries to be
able to shoot, or he needs to be the center surrounded by by four
shooters, and that might be something that Golden State struggles to do next year.
A lot of it will be predicated not just having Klay Thompson and Stephen
Curry healthy, but how well is Andrew Wiggins shooting from the floor. How
many of their players this season proved to be mainstays. Can you get away
with the front court of Eric Kashcal and Draymond Green and then Andrew Wiggins?
What does that look like offensively for you? Still? I think you can
put him in different situations, and as long as you give him, let's
say, three shooters, three above average shooters on the court, I think
he can still have some pretty high offensive value. March sadness is rolling on
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your new ticket online action. Next question comes from good friend of the pod,
Adam Spinella. He asked, would you rather have Prime healthy, Grant
Hill or Clay Thompson. Holy shit, this was a really tough question for
me. I am in the camp of Clay Thompson being supremely underrated and the
sacrifices he's made on both offense and defense. When you look at the assignments
that he has to cover, they're astronomical, and I think they've not only
dragged his numbers down when you're looking at the office vent, but what they
asked him to do on defense, you're never really going to see the impact
that he really has. He's not going to get a ton of the defensive
counting stats, and sometimes the defensive splits aren't going to reflect as soundly on
him. But when you look at what he's going up against so many number
one options, that threat is going to be there when you are effectively the
anchor of an entire perimeter defense, and just having him in the court by
extension makes Stephen Curry's job easier. The extent twitch you need to go to
hide. Stephen Curry put that in air quotes as well. That's always been
a little bit overblown. He has pretty good size for a point guard,
and he's fought over screens during his prime. But to not have to put
him on point guards primary ball handlers as often as you would usually need to
without a Clay Thompson there, that's a huge deal. Now, I would
still go with peak Grant Hill. I don't know if a ton of people
remember how good he was, And I didn't really get to see peak Grant
Hill. I was still so young. You know, when you're looking at
the ninety five ninety six season. I think that was his second year in
the league. I was I think six years old then six six, maybe
maybe seven. I was born in eighty nine. Anyway, So his five
year peak, his age twenty three to twenty seven seasons, he averaged twenty
nine twenty one point nine points, six point five assists, and one point
six steals per game. No one who appeared in at least three hundred games
during that span matched his steal percentage, block percentage, and defensive rebounding percentage.
He could really be this understated weapon on the defensive end, and even
as he got older. I'll never forget when I I don't want to say
when I first started paying attention to the NBA, but when I really started
to take things in and just dive deeper into it. It was around,
you know, two thousand and nine, like Lebron's last year in Cleveland.
Lebron's last years in Cleveland. But I do remember the twenty ten Sons Blazer
series in the playoffs where Grant Hill age thirty seven, which is an absolute
defensive monster. That doesn't factor in to this discussion because we're looking at prime
Grant Hill versus prime Clay Thompson. But when you add his shot creation into
the fold, with just the help defense that he really showed, and he
could be this understated room protector to really go up against guys at the rim,
he might be. I would have to watch more of his prime games,
but seeing what I did see from him later in his career, there's
a chance that he might just be one of the smartest help defenders in NBA
history. And Adam Spinella, who coaches a college basketball team in addition to
writing for the basketball writers, might be able to speak to that or definitely
could be able to speak to that better than I could. But he was
really good, and so give me the prime healthy Grant Hill. Even again,
I'm not even sure that we understand when he was available how well he
really aged gracefully, And it really bums me out that we look back on
how much prime basketball was lost due to his battles with injuries in the middle
of his career. Next question comes from Twitter user Tara Pillar. They ask
what's going on between Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. This is actually a question
that I wanted to tackle in the wake of the COVID nineteen stuff I and
Adam Framwo talked about how the criticism of Rudy Gobert reached probably the point where
it was too much. You absolutely need to drag drag him for touching all
those microphones, just to reiterate what we said. But there's no way of
knowing who he passed it on too, and he had to catch it from
someone, and it could have been Donovan Mitchell himself. We can't detect the
point of origin, at least as far as I know, on this coronavirus.
So to say that he is the one that blew up the NBA,
it's just patently false. That said, and apparently I'm gonna say that said
a ton this podcast. There's always a podcast where I overuse one phrase.
That's going to be it today, Donovan Mitchell's clearly pissed. Tony Jones of
The Athletic wrote a fantastic piece. I'm recording this on a Tuesday night,
and I believe it came out this morning about Mitchell's feelings. He did an
interview on Good Morning America, I believe, where it's clear that he's still
a little heated with Gobert and hasn't talked with him. This is something that
Jazz were just going to have to address. And I understand Donovan Mitchell's frustrations
because at least the optics now or that Rudy Gobert didn't take it seriously,
and if for some reason he did pass it on to Donovan Mitchell, He's
of course going to be angry. It's something that he has to get over
too, as well, though, because Golbert didn't give him the coronavirus intentionally,
and to that point, we don't even know if Gobert had at first
it could have been Donovan Mitchell. We really just don't know. What I
will say is a little bit ridiculous is the Jazz fans who are really killing
Woes for the way he phrased his tweet about how players in the Jazz locker
room were frustrated with the way that Rudy Gobert was acting before he was diagnosed
with COVID nineteen. He heard that from players on the team. I don't
understand why that's on WOG if that was offered up to him, and maybe
it's not something that you want passed along, but that's on Rudy Gobert's teammates
just as much as it is on WOG and so we don't need to look
at this as some bias against bias reporting against Rudy Gobert. In my opinion,
perhaps that's not the way that you should have gone about reporting the news.
But if he's hearing it from players on the Jazz, you should be
more mad at them if you want them to protect their own if you're going
to be that upset with Borznarowski. And that's that's where I land on that.
I do ultimately think that Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell will be fine.
I can't imagine this gets too in either or scenario where they have to have
to choose one. But it is going to be critical that you address this
whenever the NBA resumes business, if not before, then you have to try
and get them to talk to each other via Skype or text messager or something.
This is all going to last awhile longer, and it's going to be
all we think about. But you can't blame Rudy Gobert for giving Donovan Mitchell
COVID nineteen and he didn't. It doesn't seem like Rudy Gobert or that any
of the reporters around the Jazz were infected by COVID nineteen either, And so
him touching the microphones and that'sence didn't really do anything. And if he was
touching things excessively in the locker room more than he does, that's only one
player, Donov Mitchell was infected in his lockers next to Gobert. It would
be more of a happenstance thing than a deliberate Rudy Gobert really fucked up there.
And just to reiterate, we don't know that Rudy Gobert gave it to
Donovan Mitchell. So I've I've played both sides of the fence here and I
think that's really the only way to do this in my mind. Though Gobert
and Donovan Mitchell that that probably won't be a long term issue with the Jazz.
I think time will heal everything in this sense, particularly as we see
and Donovan Mitchell sees and everyone else around the league sees that this was just
an inevitable stoppage for the NBA. Regardless of what happens. You have more
players who have been tested positive for COVID nineteen already, and so This isn't
something that Rudy Gobert or anybody on the Jazz started. They're just that that
first case that that triggered the effects of COVID nineteen. In general, the
NBA was just always speeding towards this sabbatical. Next question comes from Steve Ahearn.
His question is, can you visualize or compare Jason Tatum's rise in the
NBA to other historic comps. Thanks. I'm not going to visualize it because
it's a pod cast and I don't really know how to compare the rise itself.
When you look at his uptick in production across history. You could certainly
look at his usage jump if you have a little bit more time, but
that's not something that I allocated time for before this podcast. However, when
you really look at the workload he's shouldering this year, the number of off
the dribble threes that he's taken, his usage rate has spiked by six point
five percentage points compared to last season. His true shooting percentage is up from
last year despite that uptick in volume, getting to the free throw line a
little bit more often. More of his shots, particularly since the middle of
December, are coming in the restricted area. He's just improved basically every facet
of the game. His pick and roll volume as the initiator has nearly doubled
when looking at the possessions that he's finished. Still needs to improve as a
facilitator. Get to line more consistently. There are games where it feels like
he can get there ten to fourteen times, but then there are other nights
where he still bails out too early on his drives. Probably needs to give
the ball up on those plays more often anyway, But this is someone who
is in all NBA territory, not just overall, but on defense too.
I haven't done my All defense teams or all NBA teams, but there's a
really good chance that Tatum ends up on my second team All Defense. I'm
not sure. I don't think he'll make first, just doing this in my
mind at the at the moment, But to make an All NBA and All
Defensive team the same season, your age twenty one season, no less,
that's a huge deal. And what I did look at though, is for
this season, specifically, just looking at a shot difficulty, twenty five players
are attempting at least three pull up triples per game. Tatum's thirty nine point
nine percent clip on those looks is third, behind only Tarris Lavert and Damian
Lillard. That's just that's really just a wild number to me. And then
when you look through throughout history of players who buy their third season or earlier
are matching Tatum's current usage rate twenty eight point six, true shooting percentage fifty
six point two and scoring at least twenty four point five points per seventy five
possessions, which is basically what he's averaging. There are only fourteen other players
throughout MBA history who have done that in their third season or earlier. Two
of them are happening this year. Luka Doncic, a sophomore, and Trey
Young, also a sophomore. Those guys are incredible too. Looking at the
pass players who have done it, we'll go on Honor Walter Davis, Mark
Aguire, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaquille O'Neill, Paul Pierce, Dwyane
Wade, Lebron, James Carmelo, Anthony, Ben Gordon. Nice little reminder
of how good Ben Gordon was once upon a time. He did it in
two thousand and seven. Fyi, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and that,
as I already mentioned, Trey Young and Luka Doni. That's spectacular company.
The only red flag here would be Ben Gordon, where his career are just
sort of fell off a cliff. But for Tatum to be at this point
where I think you look at him and say he can be one of the
ten best players in the league, that's the most important thing because that puts
the Celtics back in the opiate open ended title window. We thought that they
had initially established and they really sort of of didn't. They look good in
the future because he's so young. Jalen Brown still pretty young, but they
can compete now because he's already all MBA good. Have another Celtics question here.
It's also semi nets related because it involves Kyrie. This comes from a
Twitter user seth What is Kembo's plus minus versus what Kyrie's was in Boston.
I'm not a big fan of raw plus minus when looking at entire season,
so I'm going to use net rating. I'm also not a big fan of
just cross comparing years. The teams are different, their roles are different,
but let's just look at these numbers. The Celtics were outscoring opponents by plus
point four points prone hundred possessions with Kyrie on the floor last year Kemba Walker.
This season, they're outscoring oponents by one point five points per one hundred
possessions more than when he's off the court. Excuse me. These are the
swings. The Celtics were point four possession point four point prone hundre possessions better
with Kyrie last year. They're one point five points prone hundred possessions better this
year. That's that's in some it includes the offense and defense. Kemba Walker,
of course, has this huge offensive net rating swing the Celtics or seven
point six points per one hundred possessions better with him on the court. There.
What I ultimately do think, though, if you throw these out the
window, is that Kemba Walker is just by far and away the better fit
because of what he allows other players on the team to do. And so
Kyrie's offensive rating swings were similar plus six point four last year with the plus
seven point one with the Celtics last year, excuse me, and plus eight
point five in twenty seven ten twenty eighteen. That was a year where he
was really an MVP candidate and an outside MVP candidate. You looked at him
as one of the ten best players in the game. So that's not to
understate what he could do with the Celtics when he was healthy and engaged.
But when you look at what Kemba Walker is able to do, he's just
someone who doesn't need the ball in his hands as much. He can take
the same type of shots as Kyrie Irving, but he maybe doesn't have such
an inclination too, and probably doesn't want to after all those years in Charlotte
going it alone. He's just what I would call a comfy your fit because
Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, and even Gordon Hayward are going to have more
opportunities to work on the ball Kemba Walker is. The number of baskets that
are coming off assists this season are a career high for him, and that's
a measurable increase from where Irving was at last year at thirty seven points three
percent of his baskets came off assists. Their average touch time is actually the
same, and Walker controls the ball for longer when he has it and uses
more dribbles per possession than Kyrie Irving last season, but he's also Kemba's also
burning through fewer front court touches overall, so that displays him from the ball
more. And he's also finishing off screens more frequently even Kyrie Irving did,
and operating in isolation less, and so all of that is going to have
this waterfall effect where it makes it easier on the rest of the team.
I also don't think that we can over state the fact that it wasn't just
Kyrie that the Celtics laws Al Horford. I don't think he's as big of
a deal because he was someone who could play off the ball and did elevate
the players around him with his passing. But you look at him, Marcus
Morris and and a Terry Rosier, it's just you smashed so many guys who
preferred to operate on the ball together that it made this just awkward chemical mix,
and we saw it. And to now lose a few of those guys
who replace him with with Kemba Walker, who's going to do more stuff off
the ball, at the very least more than just Irving, and maybe even
a little bit more than a Terry Rosier than he did in Boston. He's
doing a lot of it in Charlotte now though, and perhaps Marcus Morris in
certain instances. I think that's huge and what's ultimately the biggest difference for Boston
by swapping out Kyrie for Kema Walker. Next question comes from Oscar Martel Pontigo.
He asked, what is the Blazers plus minus with Nurkicch and Zach Collins
sharing the floor? So, again, not a fan of year long plus
minus, I'm going to use net rating. Also, they haven't shared the
floor this season. Nurkis has been out all year, Collins has only appeared
in three games because of a shoulder injury. What's also interesting is that Collins
is in his third season and these two have now only played a sub two
hundred and forty possessions together. That speaks to the amount of time that the
Blazers used them together. Last year, it was only for one hundred and
thirty one possessions according to Cleaning the Glass. During that time, the Blazers
had a net rating of six point one. Their offensive rating no was in
the eighteenth percent tile It was really the defense that carried them. They allowed
just ninety nine point two points per one hundred possessions in that sample size,
that's insanely good. They held opponents to a ridiculously low effective a field goal
percentage forty six point six, and they were just monsters on the glass.
That's what you're gonna get if you have Collins and Nurkics at the four and
the five. You have questions about their future fit together, But I think
you look at the progression from twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen into last year as
a positive sign. Because the Blazers again only used Nurkicch and Collins for one
hundred and one possessions together in twenty seventeen twenty eighteen. Their offensive rating was
in the first percentile on ninety four point one, and they gave up a
one twenty six defensive rating. What really improved for them defensively is Collins wasn't
a rookie and he seemed more apps to defend both the four and five positions
as a sophomore, and that's something they're still going to get from him when
he's fully healthy. What this really comes down to is what can you do
with these two offensively? McCollum and Lillard can get you buckets even in the
tightest of spaces, and Nurkics does have a little bit of picking pop to
his game. He was a fantastic passer in two eighteen nineteen. But you
need more space if you're going to run with those dual big combinations, and
that's gonna really come down to ken Zach Collins hit his threes. He has
not been a lee average shooter from beyond the arc to this point, and
so if you can run him beyond the three point line and defenses actually have
to go out and defend him, it makes everyone's jobs more easier. You
have Nurkics with more room to operate, not just in the post, but
on his short rolls to the basket, more room for CJ. McCollum and
Damian Lillard. It does seem like maybe Collins was tracking in that direction this
season forty two point nine percent from three. Of course, that's only over
three games. What's probably not as encouraging is three point at tempt rate.
Excuse me? Is encouraging. More encouraging is three point at temph rate.
It was around thirty seven compared to thirty thirty last year. He probably needs
to get to the forty percent fifty percent three point a temph rate, if
not more, because you're not asking him to do a ton of stuff in
the post or really on the ball, and so maybe you're going to want
that to be even higher. And that's going to be key for this pairing
if the Blazers do end up keeping it moving forward, interesting offseason for them
if we don't have a regular season, of course, because they won't have
seen nurkicch Collins will missed the entire year. Their sample size, as I
said, is about two hundred and thirty one possessions over the past three seasons.
Because of all this, are you going to look at moving Collins in
a bigger package to bring in just a more defined, high impact player.
I would say you're not going to get a star with him as the main
attraction. Maybe if you're also training Anthony Simons. But we also know that
the Blazers like to get high on their own supply of young players and tend
to value them more than other across the league. I do there are a
ton of reasons I want the regular season to come back, but seeing Nurkics
healthy and then what the Blazers could potentially look like when you have him,
McCullum, Lillard, and Collins together, maybe a little bit mellow. You
have a reason there too, things to monitor. I just want to see
what this team looks like closer to full strength, because they've had a hard
year after not having the most impressive pressive offseason. I'm going to get to
a couple more questions right here. Robbie polinks as other than the Nets,
which sneaky NBA team might super benefit from this extended spring break due to players
coming back from injury. Let's assume the season comes back for the playoffs in
mid June. Mid June might be a little bit ambitious at this point.
I believe it's probably going to be more likely July if the season comes back
at all, but things can change. It's a very fluid situation. I
looking at just injuries, so we know the Nets with Kevin Durant, Kyrie
Irving, I don't think they would come back anyway, just because Brooklyn has
to play the longer game there, particularly with Kevin Durant because he's coming back
from an achilles injury and wasn't prepared to play this season at all. I
don't believe just based out of all the reporting we've seen him there. The
Sixers are of course on this list. You had Ben Simmons who's been banged
up, dealing with a lower back injury, and so if you can get
him healthy and then play a couple of regular season games before the playoffs,
that ends up being huge for you. There are a lot of questions about
the Sixers. There's still defensive monsters with their five best players on the floor,
and they've all been collectively banged up. Joe el Embie just came back
from his injury. Al Horford has been dealing with knee problems and apparently playing
through achilles issues. Maybe giving him this rest really helps him clean up.
If you're looking at let's move the scope beyond injuries though, and just seeing
what breaks could benefit a team and throw the Plazers on there too, because
if you get just give Nurkics more time off and it just makes him healthier
for when he does come back, and perhaps he doesn't need his long to
find his game legs. That's probably not necessarily the case, but it could
be. Through the Hawks in there as well, Does this increase the likelihood
that they get a look at Clint Capella, who is still yet to make
his debut for them. We really don't know. But again, let's branch
out aside from the injuries and what teams could technically benefit from this. I
think a squad like the Lakers just to give Anthony Davis a breather. He's
been relatively healthy compared to his other seasons, and just Lebron, we've seen
how dangerous he can be on rest, and so you give Lebron rest,
you know he's going to take care of his body, ends up being a
couple of months off. It's like, it's like, just as long as
his off seasons in the past have essentially been when he was making the finals
every single year, that could end up being mega scary for the rest of
the league if you're looking at a fresh Lebron, and of course there are
other players who can say the same. You know, Janni's attenta coupo hasn't
even averaged thirty one minutes per game this season, and now you're just gonna
give him more rest. What is he going to look like? There might
have been some concern could you really up his minutes in the playoffs when he's
not used to playing them? Now that he's going to have all this time
off, Does that make it easier harder? I don't know. With Lebron,
you just know we've seen it before that rest really helps him. I
of course think the Clippers, who have just been perpetually banged up this season
Kawhi Leonards, but more of their healthier players. Paul George's back in the
lineup, and so maybe this just makes it easier to keep him there if
the regular season returns. The Pacers are dealing with a I don't want to
say a smortgage board of injuries, but you have Malcolm Brogden and Jeremy Lamb
on the shelf. We know Lamb is going to be out for this year
and probably miss parts of next year. But does this help Malcolm Brogden come
back at all or is he just going to be out for the year now?
So those are awesome things to monitor. I'm trying to think of some
other teams that might benefit from this. The Grizzlies, I think, again,
we're not looking at injuries though Justice Winslow perhaps this makes it easier for
him to come back from his back issues, and Dylan Brooks was banged up
at the time you also had Brandon Clark and Jaren Jackson Junior missing games.
This absolutely helps the Grizzlies. Also, if you shorten the regular season,
it makes it more likely that they're just going to make the playoffs by default.
And if they just go right into the playoffs and there's no play in
tournament or anything and they just end up with the eight seed, that ends
up benefiting them in a big way. For the Timberwolves down the stretch,
you're not going to make the playoffs, but maybe you can get more of
an extensive look at D'Angelo Russell and Colin Anthony Towns because you don't have a
sample size with them to work with right now. Towns has been missing games.
He's dealing with a wrist injury, and he was at the time when
the NBA it was a March sixth I think it was announced that he was
going to be out at least two more weeks, and so that takes us
to, you know, the end of March, and now he's going to
get who knows if he had been ready to come back from there, but
he's going to get even extra time off. That's a team that just trying
to look at and figure out the big picture that really helps them them there,
we'll move on to this last question. This comes from Jared Levitt.
Will the Knicks ever not suck again? I don't know, that's the that's
the short answer. What could really do them a favor as if they start
acting like a rebuilding team where they're going to just not have young players on
the roster but prioritize their development. Let's get past those games where Taj Gibson,
Alfred Peyton, Bobby Portis or average logging more minutes than even Dennis Smith
junior. At this point, Kevin Knox are Jay Barrett's been a pretty steady
staple in the lineup, But why don't you have Mitchell Robinson starting in the
front court right now? Will Leon Rose change the culture or is he going
to look for those slapdash solutions where the Knicks really chased those one season overnight
free agency coups and look to become this instant playoff contender. That's probably the
most toxic thing about New York aside from James Dolan existing in general. And
so if you can get to a point where you're prioritizing youth their development while
not really trying to fuck with the roster and add a ton of veterans who
are going to need touches and really overlap or just be counterintuitive relative to the
skill sets of the youngsters. That ends up being a huge deal. And
I'll point to RJ. Barrett this year. Imagine him on a team where
they just surrounded him with at least three shooters. The Knicks struggled us around
him with one. But just imagine if he didn't have, you know,
a Julius Randall and Mitchell Robinson in the front court at the same time.
If you had if one of those guys was an actual shooter and you had
another to shoot on the wings. It's just that's the point that they need
to get to, is is smarter roster building. There was no problem with
the length of the contracts they gave out last summer. When they struck out
on their star free agents. They did go to big man heavy. That's
just the powerful ard joke has been out there. You can get away with
some of those guys playing five Gibson portis even Randall if you're looking to sup
up the offense, but they haven't always indulged those scenarios. You have to
be smarter about roster construction, and RJ. Barrett I think is good enough
to really try to reformat the team around him. At this point, he's
the closest thing you have to a blue chip prospect. I don't think that
your Mitchell Robinson is there too, Don't get me wrong, but RJ.
Barrett's gonna have inherently more influenced over the game because he's a primary ball handler
and facilitator. Over the past two weeks a little bit more than that before
the break, he looked a lot more decisive in the half court. He
was more efficient. Over his past eight games. He's averaging eighteen point three
points three point five assists, slashing forty eight point two thirty seven point five
percent from three on four attempts per game. That that's a big deal,
and inching closer to seventy percent at the free throw line sixty eight point three
and was getting there at a pretty good clip. He's done some things defensively
too, where he makes me think that he might be able to hang on
some two and three. He's not the primary scores, but not need someone,
not be someone who's really just going to get beat. He can muck
up and contest, some some shot attempts when he's on the ball, and
so there might be a higher ceiling for him than people are crediting right now
because there have been so many rookers, rookies who have been better throughout the
course of the year. I think he at this point is at least worth
building your team around in the intern because we don't know what you're going to
get in this year's draft. Everyone's very low on the level of talent within
it. You also don't know where you're going to end up in the lottery
at this point. So he's the guy that I think you need to look
towards and just assume that he's going to play a tournaments with Mitchell Robinson,
and yes, I want to see Frankie Latina and Kevin Knox run with them
too, But when you're looking at signing free agents, because they are one
of the few teams even with the projected salary cap dip, I think we
can call it projected at this point, giving how much revenue the NBA is
gonna lose no matter what the scenario ends up being for this year. If
they declined Bobby Ports's team option wave, the non guaranteed salaries of a lot
of these guys, specifically at TOAJ Gibson, They're they're going to open up
a ton of money. And so you know, Reggie Bullock is a guy
maybe you keep for that. I would probably still wave Wayne Ellington and pay
his one million partial guarantee. He hasn't been shooting too well in New York.
But those are the types of players you should probably be giving more run
next to Robinson and Barrett, just so that you give them both space to
operate. And can you throw out lineups that are four out and maybe five
out if you want to include RJ. Barrett, teams are going to leave
them open. And if you can shoot around Lee Gaverage from three, that
ends up being a huge deal. That's the direction to me that I think
they need to go immediately. Not I'm not saying this will work four or
five years down the line, but right now is you're still trying to figure
out what you have in Kevin Knox, even frank Nie Lakina future Hall of
Famer Frankniel Keena. Excuse me. That's the direction, and that's the path
that you should be traveling down. And so if that's what we see from
them this summer. That is the most encouraging signed this new front office regime
under Leon Rose can really do this year, and that that's just going to
be something to watch. If it's the same old Nix or maybe they're giving
out long term contracts to players who don't necessarily fit the timeline or fit the
roster, that's when the red flags go up. There really isn't a free
agent outside of Anthony Davis that's worth overpaying this year. I think you can
be okay with going to throw money at a Fred van Fleet if it's three
years and sixty million or around there, just because he's only twenty six.
He's played alongside other ball dominant players before, and he's like a mini Kyle
Lowry on defense. He could be so physical there. He's not going to
take as many charges or go to such great length to the flop and all
that. But just looking at his shooting, secondary playmaking, he's led bench
shoot. It's on his own before. He's a starting level player in today's
MBA, And so that's someone that you're at least comfortable with. You don't
want to look at it as we're signing him, and so we're going to
sign other players so that we can try and make the playoff push next year.
That's not something that they should be going after. And so if they
do whatever over the offseason to show that they're going to prioritize their youth and
build the roster in that vein with talent that actually compliments RJ. Barrett,
Mitchell Robinson first and foremost, but also isn't going to overshadow the developments of
a Kevin Knox. Will they still have Dennis Smith Jr. Or Frank Nielikina
at this point, I think you can justify moving any one of those three.
I don't want to see the move. Frank Nielikina just a monster defensively,
and when he's aggressive on offense, there's this smoothness to his game.
Don't know if he will ella read decisive enough to be that type of player,
though, if you can sell high on a Knox or Frank Nielikina,
I think Dennis Smith Junior is probably not the best fit for this team in
general, and if you can get anything for him, you might have to
write him off as a Sun cost. If you're going to keep them,
though, have them on the floor and sign guys that are going to compliment
them, and who don't cannibalize their minutes because that's what the Knicks have done.
And I know a lot of people say Elford Payton has played well enough
to come back next year. Looking at this roster and what it needs to
do, I think you can be perfectly fine if they decide to let him
hit her agency. It's it's fine to have that one veteran point guard there,
but then don't go and pay Fred Van Fleet as well. Don't keep
Dennis Smith junior. You need to give R. J. Barrett a lot
of those on ball reps. And so that's when you need to start looking
at at moving guys. I hope that answers your question, Jarrett, but
honestly, we don't. We don't know if the Knicks are going to be
good again so long as Doolan is in charge of that team. Thank you
all for listening. I hope you enjoyed this. As we get more into
this NBA hiatus, it's going to it's going to get dreary. Things are
gonna get worse before they get better. That's talking about life in general.
We're hoping here at Hardware Knox that everyone remains safe. We encourage you to
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Until next time, I leave you with the shout out too, the one
and only Kyle Anderson. And because I'm in a generous mood the past few
weeks, I'm gonna shout out Andy Bailey's guy, Beto Woudrey as well Sugar
Ray, Leonard, Roberto Duran, Marvelous, Marvin Hagler, and Thomas Hearns.
Legends whose four way rivalry define one of the greatest era is in boxing
history, relive their decade of dominance in the new Showtime Sports documentary The Kings,
a four part series premiering Sunday, June sixth, only on Showtime