WEBVTT 1 00:00:15.560 --> 00:00:20.879 From power Line blog dot com and produced by Ricochet dot Com. This is 2 00:00:20.920 --> 00:00:35.600 the power Line Show with your host Steve Hayward. This Sunday, the member 3 00:00:35.640 --> 00:00:39.159 states of the European Union will be going to the polls to elect their members 4 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:44.000 of the European Parliament. Now, the European Parliament is a rather opaque organization 5 00:00:44.079 --> 00:00:48.359 to most Americans. We're not really clear what it does, but actually it's 6 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:52.320 somewhat opaque to Europeans as well. In any case, it's all linked up 7 00:00:52.359 --> 00:00:57.439 with the European Union bureaucracy in Brussels, the subject rightly of a lot of 8 00:00:57.439 --> 00:01:00.560 suspicion, and the campaign is in full swing through the continent. Here in 9 00:01:00.600 --> 00:01:03.799 Budapest, where I still am at the moment, there was a march last 10 00:01:03.799 --> 00:01:11.200 weekend of several hundred thousand people campaigning on behalf of the Conservative candidates for the 11 00:01:11.200 --> 00:01:15.599 country, and I gather similar things are happening at other countries around the continent. 12 00:01:17.040 --> 00:01:21.760 Now, the polls suggest that populist parties or center right parties insurgent parties 13 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:25.640 are likely to do very well in the elections this weekend. We'll just have 14 00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:29.760 to see. There are a few outliers, like the Alternative for Germany Party 15 00:01:29.840 --> 00:01:34.959 AfD, which has lately encountered some problems because of some basic conflicts and uncertainties 16 00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:40.680 about what they're all about. Meanwhile, on July fourth, Britain will go 17 00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:42.840 to the polls for the first time in five years, and all the polls 18 00:01:42.840 --> 00:01:47.840 suggest that the Conservative Party is going to get wiped out. They look to 19 00:01:47.840 --> 00:01:52.879 be heading to a historic defeat after what I think thirteen years in office and 20 00:01:52.959 --> 00:01:56.959 seemingly unable to get their act together. Well, I thought the person to 21 00:01:57.079 --> 00:02:00.879 decode both of these is one of my hosts here in Bouot, and it's 22 00:02:00.920 --> 00:02:07.680 the famous John O'Sullivan American listeners may remember, was the editor of National Review 23 00:02:07.680 --> 00:02:10.479 for many years back in the late eighties and early nineties, where he was 24 00:02:10.719 --> 00:02:15.879 way ahead of the curve and raising issue of immigration and what he liked to 25 00:02:15.960 --> 00:02:20.159 call the national question, meaning you know, what's the national identity of the 26 00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:23.439 country and what waves of mass immigration mean for that, both here and in 27 00:02:23.479 --> 00:02:28.599 other countries, And in that respect he was an early prophet of what became 28 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:32.039 the national conservatism movement, both in the United States and around the world. 29 00:02:32.560 --> 00:02:36.719 Currently, John lives here in Budapesta, where he is the president of the 30 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:39.599 Danube Institute. He was, as you may know, a chief speechwriter for 31 00:02:39.719 --> 00:02:44.719 Margaret Thatcher for a long time, as well as spending time in America and 32 00:02:44.840 --> 00:02:47.919 at all the premiere publications on Fleet Street. So with his finger on all 33 00:02:47.960 --> 00:02:52.520 these issues, I decided to have a conversation with him about what to look 34 00:02:52.560 --> 00:02:55.280 for, what these elections are about, what's behind all this And so without 35 00:02:55.280 --> 00:03:00.800 further ado, here is John O'Sullivan. So, John, I want to 36 00:03:00.800 --> 00:03:07.840 talk to you about the upcoming elections. The European Parliament elections are coming in 37 00:03:07.879 --> 00:03:09.960 about the week and a half here in Europe, and then on July fourth, 38 00:03:10.879 --> 00:03:15.000 kind of an ironic day for Americans, will be the next national election 39 00:03:15.120 --> 00:03:19.639 in Britain. So, first of all, most Americans, I think don't 40 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:23.680 really have a good feel for what the European Parliament is and what it does. 41 00:03:23.719 --> 00:03:27.080 And then we'll get the politics side it. Maybe you can be called 42 00:03:27.080 --> 00:03:31.319 it just briefly in the summary form for mostly American audience. Well, the 43 00:03:31.360 --> 00:03:38.360 European Parliament was initially not directly elected by the voters. It was Parliament's which 44 00:03:38.439 --> 00:03:46.759 sent their members to Strasbourg and those delegated MPs, where in fact they were 45 00:03:46.800 --> 00:03:52.240 the European Parliament. But now for the last twenty more years or more, 46 00:03:52.479 --> 00:03:55.680 it has been directly elected. As a result of that, it wants to 47 00:03:55.719 --> 00:04:03.639 exercise more power. Problem because it's powers are fairly well circumscribed, and so 48 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:10.000 they're trying to use votes on matters in which they have And this is the 49 00:04:10.080 --> 00:04:15.199 left. It's fundamentally when he left parliament, but we can we might look 50 00:04:15.240 --> 00:04:20.600 into that. But because of that, they try to use votes in the 51 00:04:20.639 --> 00:04:27.519 parliament to pressure both national governments but also the European Commission, which is the 52 00:04:27.560 --> 00:04:31.839 executive arm of the European Union. They try to pressure these bodies, and 53 00:04:32.160 --> 00:04:39.079 these bodies, particularly the European Commission, are quite happy to bend to that 54 00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:46.480 pressure to pursue more powers, to give themselves more power over member states and 55 00:04:46.519 --> 00:04:53.040 in particular of course on moral issues, on everything except the economics, to 56 00:04:53.079 --> 00:04:57.279 push Europe, the European Union as a whole, to the left, so 57 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:00.519 to the extent that the Americans are familiar in all the European Parliament. That 58 00:05:00.639 --> 00:05:06.199 remember Niger Farage, who am I right to say that he couldn't have been 59 00:05:06.199 --> 00:05:10.519 elected the parliament in England. He was such an outlier in British politics. 60 00:05:10.519 --> 00:05:15.519 But he could be elected to the Parliament. Well, it's slightly difficult to 61 00:05:15.519 --> 00:05:20.040 answer your question. I'll tell you why you say that that Nigel could. 62 00:05:20.480 --> 00:05:25.079 He tried several times to be elected to Parliament and he didn't get in. 63 00:05:25.199 --> 00:05:28.720 That itself doesn't tell you a lot because he was not standing for one of 64 00:05:28.759 --> 00:05:33.000 the major parties and it's very hard for anybody to get in. But we 65 00:05:33.279 --> 00:05:39.839 discovered in the Brexit debate that he spoke for actually the majority of the country. 66 00:05:40.120 --> 00:05:47.600 Now neither major party wants to concede that they and they are very hostile 67 00:05:47.959 --> 00:05:54.199 to him. And for example, although he helped the Conservatives to gain their 68 00:05:55.199 --> 00:06:00.120 eighty seat majority last time, neither he nor any other member of his party, 69 00:06:00.279 --> 00:06:06.079 the Brexit Party then Reform now has been given any seats in the House 70 00:06:06.120 --> 00:06:11.519 of Lords. I regard that as a scandal and a shame and borishing me 71 00:06:11.639 --> 00:06:16.639 ashamed of himself because he was the man who drove a hard bargain but didn't 72 00:06:16.720 --> 00:06:25.240 even give some of the ceremonial treats that British government can hand out to Nigel. 73 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:30.519 So I think that Nigel is an extremely important figure. We don't know 74 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:34.600 if he'll carry on being important. After all, he's been important now for 75 00:06:34.639 --> 00:06:41.920 about a decade without the benefit of a political party. So we now have 76 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:47.439 to see whether or not in the new politics, which are basically quite favorable 77 00:06:47.480 --> 00:06:51.959 to him in the sense that there's now a large number of people who share 78 00:06:53.399 --> 00:06:58.639 his critique, his criticism of the UNI Party, the way in which both 79 00:06:58.680 --> 00:07:01.759 of these parties tend to adopt the same policies. Not only were they against 80 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:10.920 Brexit, but the Laborers and Conservative Party until the brief period of Boris's leadership, 81 00:07:11.199 --> 00:07:16.480 the labor and Conservas have been shadowing each other on other masses too. 82 00:07:16.879 --> 00:07:23.000 They're both in favor of net zero, although it's fairly plain now that this 83 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:29.680 is completely disastrous policy and isn't and is in any way doesn't it go anyway 84 00:07:29.800 --> 00:07:38.639 to achieving it's professed aim, namely to reduce the temperature levels average temperature levels 85 00:07:39.040 --> 00:07:44.639 in the following industrialization. Well, right, I mean the brief digression. 86 00:07:44.680 --> 00:07:47.319 But net zero is a great con game. I mean, you know, 87 00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:51.560 twenty years ago it was in an eighty to ninety percent reduction from baseline level. 88 00:07:51.839 --> 00:07:56.079 Net zero means you leed lots of room for cheating, and that's what's 89 00:07:56.079 --> 00:08:01.839 going to happen? Right, Absolutely well, now the kind of just But 90 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:07.800 on the other hand, it had the allegiance of the entire House of Commons. 91 00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:13.480 When the Climate Change Act, which enshrines it was first pass only five 92 00:08:13.639 --> 00:08:20.360 members of Parliament voted against it from a house of about six hundred and thirty 93 00:08:20.519 --> 00:08:26.240 MPs. So there was a sense for a long time that it was inevitable. 94 00:08:26.720 --> 00:08:31.559 But the reason I felt argue that it wasn't inevitable we could and should 95 00:08:31.600 --> 00:08:39.200 fight it was because if it was seriously attempted, it would impose intolerable living 96 00:08:39.279 --> 00:08:45.799 standards, price increases, and higher taxes on the majority of people, and 97 00:08:46.360 --> 00:08:48.320 there'll be no reason to think that they would go along with that. They 98 00:08:48.360 --> 00:08:52.960 would in fact rebel. And that has happened, and it's come as a 99 00:08:54.080 --> 00:08:58.480 terrible shock to all of the adults in the room who tended to think they 100 00:08:58.480 --> 00:09:03.440 could put one over on the voters. Right. We'll follow up on that. 101 00:09:03.480 --> 00:09:09.519 This is a bit arcane even for me. But was there really nobody 102 00:09:09.519 --> 00:09:11.039 who was skeptical or was this one of those votes that had what are you 103 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:15.559 called the four line whip or whatever it's called, were the imposed party discipline 104 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:18.120 or do you know, I don't think it mattered really. I think I 105 00:09:18.120 --> 00:09:26.039 would guess that there were two votes, the most recent one, but they 106 00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:31.960 both, however, had massive majorities. And the fact that everybody else seems 107 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:39.159 to be believe it means that anybody who doesn't believe it is going to have 108 00:09:39.240 --> 00:09:45.360 to have very strong principle, very strong character, more simply a willingness to 109 00:09:46.559 --> 00:09:50.159 fight for what he believes. And as I say it turned that turned out 110 00:09:50.159 --> 00:09:54.000 to be fives of parliament. Yeah, oh boy, right, all right, 111 00:09:54.000 --> 00:09:58.840 So back to the European parliamentary election scene from Afar. The general news 112 00:10:00.159 --> 00:10:05.159 is that popular center right parties rebelling against Brussels had been gaining strength Marine Lapan, 113 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:09.919 showing great strength in France. I'll set aside AfD for just a moment 114 00:10:09.919 --> 00:10:15.120 in Germany Ian to talk about them specifically, but and I gather that the 115 00:10:15.200 --> 00:10:18.039 expectation is that those parties are going to do very very well on this selection. 116 00:10:18.159 --> 00:10:22.399 Is that sound right? Yes? The general view is that what are 117 00:10:22.440 --> 00:10:30.799 called far right obviously falsely but far right or populist parties look like doing well 118 00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:35.679 almost everywhere, which will turn out to be an exaggeration. But almost everywhere 119 00:10:35.879 --> 00:10:41.840 except Britain. And the reason Britain is the exception is that first of all, 120 00:10:41.879 --> 00:10:45.039 we're not in the European Union and we won't be in those elections, 121 00:10:45.080 --> 00:10:48.679 but in Britain's own election. The problem for the Conservatives is that they've been 122 00:10:48.720 --> 00:10:56.080 in past since twenty ten. They have done very badly. They didn't handle 123 00:10:56.519 --> 00:11:03.639 the pandemic well. They have really not got the benefits that are available under 124 00:11:03.639 --> 00:11:09.159 Brexit because they're running skirred of EU reactions and there are other many other things 125 00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:15.480 like that. So because they're in power and because everybody thinks that they not 126 00:11:15.600 --> 00:11:18.720 only have not done well, but on the issue of immigration, have lied 127 00:11:20.039 --> 00:11:24.080 about what they were going to do and actually they have. Instead of reducing 128 00:11:24.360 --> 00:11:28.679 immigration to the tens of thousands David Cameron's pledge in twenty ten, it has 129 00:11:28.720 --> 00:11:37.799 in fact risen to several hundred thousand and is currently producing a very significant, 130 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:46.440 i think change in the way in which public affairs are debated in England. 131 00:11:46.759 --> 00:11:52.120 People are very worried about growing anti Semitism, which they attribute in part to 132 00:11:52.240 --> 00:11:58.200 high levels of immigration from the Middle East, and they are very worried about 133 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:05.600 the fact that there are clear physical threats to Jewish people on Saturdays in London 134 00:12:05.600 --> 00:12:09.960 when these big marches occur. So there's a general feeling of great anxiety apart 135 00:12:11.000 --> 00:12:16.240 from other things, and so they weren't. So the Tories suffer from the 136 00:12:16.240 --> 00:12:20.519 fact that they've been in when they haven't done much of any good at all. 137 00:12:20.720 --> 00:12:24.080 Right, Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's right. That's side 138 00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:28.879 of that is Johnson missed his opportunity to on COVID. Yeah, but so 139 00:12:28.000 --> 00:12:31.960 did President Trump and a lot of people who I think should have known better. 140 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:35.559 And then your immigration and then in that zero business. It's all going 141 00:12:35.639 --> 00:12:39.159 to be worse under Labor though, isn't it. I mean, understand the 142 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:41.600 impulse to throw the bums out there have been laughs too long and would say 143 00:12:41.639 --> 00:12:46.639 more about that, but yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't 144 00:12:46.679 --> 00:12:48.879 mean to laugh, but I mean the Labor Party is hardly a sensible alternative 145 00:12:48.879 --> 00:12:54.879 to those problems. No, And it doesn't look as though the insurgent right 146 00:12:54.960 --> 00:13:01.240 wing party so to speak, Reform is going to get enough votes to win 147 00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:05.039 any seats they might get, you know, as many as eighteen twenty percent. 148 00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:09.399 At the moment they're getting about twelve. But even if they were to 149 00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:13.919 get twenty percent. That could mean that they still don't win a single seat. 150 00:13:13.159 --> 00:13:20.279 So the general feeling is you're correct that the Tories are going to be 151 00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:26.519 punished for what they have and haven't done in office. Labor is likely to 152 00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:33.000 win. Sorry, the other conservative parties just are stymied by the two party 153 00:13:33.080 --> 00:13:39.840 system. Labor is almost certain to win, is the general view. A 154 00:13:39.919 --> 00:13:48.080 slight question mark is now being raised against that expectation, and that is that 155 00:13:48.639 --> 00:13:54.919 because of what's happening in the Middle East, because the Labor Party has not 156 00:13:54.000 --> 00:14:01.840 been prepared to accept the demands of the pro Palestinian, the pro Palestinian demonstrators 157 00:14:03.240 --> 00:14:11.000 and voices which are strongly influenced by the Muslim religion in their own party, 158 00:14:11.200 --> 00:14:18.080 that they will not do as well with the Muslim voters everybody expected. They're 159 00:14:18.120 --> 00:14:22.600 going to suffer the same problem that the Democrats are facing in the States, 160 00:14:22.600 --> 00:14:30.200 which is to say, on the one hand, they are seen by Jewish 161 00:14:30.279 --> 00:14:35.120 voters and by people who are worried about the attacks on Jews, as not 162 00:14:35.279 --> 00:14:41.399 being strong enough to defend the civil rights of everybody, including Jewish citizens you 163 00:14:41.440 --> 00:14:46.159 know, who are not immigrants. They're born and brought up for generations in 164 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:50.840 England, and secondly, they are not satisfying the demands of those who would 165 00:14:50.879 --> 00:14:56.919 like to see a Palestinian and embrace the Palestinian statehood. And so there's a 166 00:14:56.960 --> 00:15:03.679 feeling that they may not do quite as well as they expected, having as 167 00:15:03.759 --> 00:15:07.960 everybody expected about a month or two ago. But having said that, it 168 00:15:07.039 --> 00:15:13.840 still looks as though they will win a majority, a clear majority and former 169 00:15:13.840 --> 00:15:18.720 government and the Tories will be reduced to well, some people think below one 170 00:15:18.759 --> 00:15:22.080 hundred. Some people think it'll be more like one hundred and fifty one hundred 171 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:26.480 and eighty. Yeah, So well I stick with that from how do they 172 00:15:26.480 --> 00:15:28.960 rebuild? I mean we just said that. I mean after the Tories were 173 00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:31.639 way down under Tony Blair, who was a very talented man. Yeah, 174 00:15:31.320 --> 00:15:35.279 but then came back finally under I mean, I don't know David Cameron's incapable 175 00:15:35.279 --> 00:15:39.200 of what rather bland, but no, they came back. So I don't 176 00:15:39.240 --> 00:15:43.399 know what's the toy is going to have to go back to their Tory roots 177 00:15:43.720 --> 00:15:46.799 and Thatcher right roots to get going again. Well, it does appear that 178 00:15:46.840 --> 00:15:52.639 one of the things that is now happening is that rather than fight the election, 179 00:15:52.799 --> 00:15:56.440 quite a lot of people at the Tory Party, preparing the ground to 180 00:15:56.519 --> 00:16:03.000 fight for control of the party when it goes into opposite and now. Until 181 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:10.960 recently, the people who seem to be talking most strongly about getting control of 182 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:15.120 the party and making it a more genuinely conservative party were the people who were 183 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:19.720 talking the most. But just lately members of what's called the One Nation, 184 00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:29.600 which is malely liberal group of conservatives, they are talking now about saving the 185 00:16:29.639 --> 00:16:34.679 party from alert to the right. It looks likely as though most of the 186 00:16:34.679 --> 00:16:41.120 people who lose their seats simply because the majorities are smaller than the others, 187 00:16:41.480 --> 00:16:48.799 will be the people on the right. And it's not likely that people like 188 00:16:48.919 --> 00:16:56.000 Zuela Bravoman, who is admired for the courage that she has taken in quarreling 189 00:16:56.120 --> 00:17:02.399 very publicly with the Prime Minister on immigration and control. It's not likely that 190 00:17:03.360 --> 00:17:11.400 people who who are like her in seats which they probably their personal reputation probably 191 00:17:11.480 --> 00:17:15.240 won't save them. That doesn't often happen in the British system. So there 192 00:17:15.279 --> 00:17:21.359 will be a you know what, they call it a dunny Brook in Tory 193 00:17:21.400 --> 00:17:25.039 politics when it's over, and that will last for a couple of years, 194 00:17:25.079 --> 00:17:30.519 I think. But the electoral dynamics, which have been well laid out by 195 00:17:30.599 --> 00:17:37.319 Matt Goodwin, the political scientist, in a couple of recent books on populism. 196 00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:41.240 The most recently is called I Think the New British Politics Not quite right. 197 00:17:42.119 --> 00:17:45.799 I have a reviewer in the Clermont Review in fact coming up. It 198 00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:52.799 looks to me as though there is going to be the Tory Party is going 199 00:17:52.839 --> 00:17:57.039 to be forced to become a Conservative or else it will stay out for well 200 00:17:57.519 --> 00:18:02.640 probably two, three or four elections. Oh boy, I think what the 201 00:18:02.680 --> 00:18:06.599 number? I heard something like eighty Conservative members are not standing for election? 202 00:18:07.160 --> 00:18:11.559 That's right, Yeah, I heard seventy eight eight. Is that typical when 203 00:18:11.559 --> 00:18:15.319 you're facing a white belt. I suppose there's a tendency for that to happen, 204 00:18:15.559 --> 00:18:18.279 But I think it's something more too, which is that quite a lot 205 00:18:18.279 --> 00:18:22.960 of the Tory Party, particularly people brought in by David Cameron, who attempted 206 00:18:23.000 --> 00:18:30.119 to create deliberately bring an intake of young progressive people into the party, they 207 00:18:30.119 --> 00:18:34.400 were never really comfortable in the Conservative Party. They were on the opposite side 208 00:18:34.440 --> 00:18:40.519 to the majority of its members on Brexit. They started leaving five years ago, 209 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:44.279 and though quite a few of them have just simply been glad to sort 210 00:18:44.319 --> 00:18:45.599 of say, well, we're going to lose any way, we might as 211 00:18:45.640 --> 00:18:52.279 well go into private life and maybe make some money instead. Now, so, 212 00:18:52.440 --> 00:18:56.960 yes, I think that will be a fact as well, what you 213 00:18:56.039 --> 00:19:02.400 might call that disproportionate resignations. Right, let's go back to Europe for a 214 00:19:02.440 --> 00:19:07.359 moment. So I've been following from AFAR with some interest, the AfD alternative 215 00:19:07.400 --> 00:19:11.799 for deutsch Land, and I don't trust what I read a lot of the 216 00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:14.359 media about them. On the other hand, you know, our mutual friend 217 00:19:14.359 --> 00:19:18.319 Mario Fantini has been very cautious about them and mixed in's evaluation, and most 218 00:19:18.400 --> 00:19:22.359 recently I think they've been either expelled is that the right word? From one 219 00:19:22.359 --> 00:19:27.160 of the sort of international consortions of populist parties. I did any Unpan Parliament. 220 00:19:27.359 --> 00:19:30.960 What's your assessment of them? I mean, was it always a sort 221 00:19:30.960 --> 00:19:33.680 of unstable or unclear? I mean, I think this thing began fifteen years 222 00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:40.799 ago with a bunch of economists. I was told that's right, it began. 223 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:45.359 I used to call it the International Alliance of German bankers because what they 224 00:19:45.359 --> 00:19:51.319 were most concerned about when they founded the party was actually they didn't want to 225 00:19:51.319 --> 00:19:55.160 go into the Europe or they want to go in on much more restrictive and 226 00:19:55.240 --> 00:20:00.880 anti inflationary terms. And yes, despite the fact that the despite the manifest 227 00:20:02.079 --> 00:20:08.400 respectability of their aims and interests, they were treated by German media and others 228 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:14.839 as a monstrous, kind of dangerous, neo fascist group of people. The 229 00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:22.440 German German media is it suffers from a permanent German version of Trump derangement syndrome, 230 00:20:22.759 --> 00:20:26.960 and so everybody who comes along looks to them like another Trump. And 231 00:20:27.480 --> 00:20:32.200 that's what that's the that was the problem. Now, as you say, 232 00:20:32.559 --> 00:20:36.799 its character has changed. It's become a party which is strong as first of 233 00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:42.279 all in Eastern Germany rather than in the old Western Germany. Secondly, they 234 00:20:42.440 --> 00:20:53.400 are undoubtedly strong, powerfully motivated by issues like immigration. And thirdly they are 235 00:20:53.880 --> 00:21:00.759 not so that they are They are themselves a various, very gated bunch. 236 00:21:00.720 --> 00:21:06.440 And I think it's probably reasonable to say that most members of the party are 237 00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:11.759 simply right wing conservatives, but there are one or two who we discover every 238 00:21:11.799 --> 00:21:21.480 now and then who have other points of view which are probably too probably dangerous 239 00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:29.240 or at least highly unrespectable. Now, the truth of the matter is that 240 00:21:29.279 --> 00:21:33.640 there is something going on in German politics which is extremely interesting and which the 241 00:21:33.720 --> 00:21:38.000 conservatives have never yet grasped, nor of the centrists, and that is that 242 00:21:38.039 --> 00:21:47.799 there is also in Germany and in other parts of Europe, the potential which 243 00:21:47.880 --> 00:21:55.359 is now beginning to be realized for left wing populism, people who have socialist 244 00:21:55.400 --> 00:22:00.079 policies in a very clear way, and at the same time not left wing 245 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:06.720 on gender, who want to control immigration, who take the view that you 246 00:22:06.799 --> 00:22:11.839 may remember Bernie Sanders expressed until he was bullied out of it, that an 247 00:22:11.880 --> 00:22:18.200 open immigration policy is damaging to workers' rights and to and you know, it 248 00:22:18.319 --> 00:22:25.839 prevents the tight labor market which benefits the workers in iowages. So I think 249 00:22:25.880 --> 00:22:30.839 that we're going to see quite soon some changes in German politics because there is 250 00:22:30.920 --> 00:22:37.680 now a vowedly left wing populist party. It's new and it's small, but 251 00:22:37.799 --> 00:22:41.720 the potential for us is there, and it's there in other places. In 252 00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:45.799 fact, one of the things about Hungary which is interesting is that Victor Auburn 253 00:22:45.839 --> 00:22:53.440 obviously saw populism emerging and Fidez is a conservative party. It's not a populist 254 00:22:53.440 --> 00:22:59.119 party, but it's a party which like and Borris did the same thing five 255 00:22:59.200 --> 00:23:03.759 years ago in England. It reached out it's with its right arm and brought 256 00:23:03.920 --> 00:23:10.920 the populist voters into the into the party. And if you if the Conservatives 257 00:23:10.960 --> 00:23:15.279 don't do that in any given country, they're going to find that the left 258 00:23:15.319 --> 00:23:21.079 winger comes along and takes I don't know a third of those votes, sure, 259 00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:25.400 right, yeah, oh my goodness. Yeah. I think AfD has 260 00:23:25.440 --> 00:23:30.359 been polling well in Germany, something like over twenty percent. That's right. 261 00:23:30.480 --> 00:23:34.000 It's it's the second largest party I think at and has been for some time. 262 00:23:36.240 --> 00:23:44.200 What is interesting is the way in which in Germany, in the European 263 00:23:44.279 --> 00:23:49.039 Parliament, in Ireland and in several other countries, what you have is the 264 00:23:49.079 --> 00:23:56.799 development of what i'd call gram coalition politics. You've got a party emerging on 265 00:23:56.839 --> 00:24:02.279 the right. People say it's unrespectable, wicked, can't have anything to do 266 00:24:02.359 --> 00:24:08.319 with it. So the conservative voters start not voting for the Christian Democrat parties 267 00:24:08.359 --> 00:24:15.119 say at that point, the Christian Democrats, which used to be in all 268 00:24:15.160 --> 00:24:25.119 of these countries probably the most the largest, most stable governing party, almost 269 00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:32.480 always in power, they find themselves shrinking and they find in order to stay 270 00:24:32.519 --> 00:24:36.799 in power. They and the Socialists and now the Liberals get together in the 271 00:24:36.880 --> 00:24:41.920 Grand Coalition. It has happened in Ireland, and it's happened in the European 272 00:24:41.960 --> 00:24:47.319 Parliament. Now for the first time, there is a real prospect. Personally, 273 00:24:47.880 --> 00:24:51.680 I think it will This will not quite happen, but there is a 274 00:24:51.720 --> 00:24:57.440 real prospect that the governing coalition in the European Parliament Liberals, Greens, Christian 275 00:24:57.480 --> 00:25:03.359 Democrats and Socialists, we'll find that it falls just below fifty percent. I 276 00:25:03.400 --> 00:25:07.480 think it will be a buppet. But if it falls below fifty one percent 277 00:25:07.519 --> 00:25:12.119 of the votes of the Parliament, you could begin to see really serious changes 278 00:25:12.160 --> 00:25:15.640 in Europe. Without that, I think we have, we'll have to wait 279 00:25:15.680 --> 00:25:21.480 for another five years. Oh boy, Well, let's let me ask you 280 00:25:21.519 --> 00:25:26.640 about two questions about America and then we'll wind it close. This left right 281 00:25:26.680 --> 00:25:30.079 coalition it's harder to work out in America except on the level of ideas, 282 00:25:30.119 --> 00:25:34.480 and I'm thinking of, in particular some aspects of the National Conservatives. By 283 00:25:34.480 --> 00:25:37.880 the way, they always seem to schedule the conferences. When I have a 284 00:25:37.920 --> 00:25:41.400 scheduled conflict can't come. But you know, I know or in cass I 285 00:25:41.559 --> 00:25:45.720 like his work. I'm skeptical of his calls for industrial policy because I kept 286 00:25:45.799 --> 00:25:51.240 saying, when did we decide that Walter Mondale was our right? But i'd 287 00:25:51.440 --> 00:25:55.799 I mean, I understand the impulse, I agree with it, but and 288 00:25:55.880 --> 00:25:57.079 I keep thinking, well, I wonder how that's going to fall out. 289 00:25:57.160 --> 00:26:00.519 And in fact, you know, people like Soba Mai and I think Oren 290 00:26:00.599 --> 00:26:06.440 have made some overtures to central left thinkers, pro labor people, pro union 291 00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:10.200 people, and hasn't gone well as my perception, But there's been anyway, 292 00:26:10.559 --> 00:26:12.160 how do you size up all that? What? It seems to me that 293 00:26:12.200 --> 00:26:15.519 this needs to be a lot more work to really figure out how to make 294 00:26:15.559 --> 00:26:18.160 that work. That's the policy? Want go no, no, No, 295 00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:23.920 Well, I think I'd say two things. The first is that for me, 296 00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:33.559 national conservatism is an attempt to say, why did the Conservatives after nineteen 297 00:26:33.640 --> 00:26:37.599 eighty nine and for about twenty years after that, why did they abandon the 298 00:26:37.680 --> 00:26:45.640 idea that patriotism and nationalism will pass natural paths of the Conservative coalition they always 299 00:26:45.640 --> 00:26:48.839 had been before, they are going to be in the future. I couldn't 300 00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:53.119 quite understand why that had ceased to be true. I think it's something to 301 00:26:53.119 --> 00:26:59.119 do with the fact that the elites at the top of conservative parties in Europe 302 00:26:59.160 --> 00:27:03.640 and to some extent in America found the supporters who were still, as they 303 00:27:03.680 --> 00:27:10.759 saw it, knuckle dragging reactionaries, embarrassing and they wanted to in a sense, 304 00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:15.440 go away from that anyway. So that's the first thing. Is I 305 00:27:15.400 --> 00:27:22.039 happen to think that the argument that has an he makes in his book this 306 00:27:22.200 --> 00:27:29.799 is a very important argument that in most cases it is the case that a 307 00:27:29.920 --> 00:27:34.759 country which is a national democracy is better than one in which it's one country 308 00:27:36.119 --> 00:27:41.759 in about ten and they have to quarrel about what their policies are with all 309 00:27:41.799 --> 00:27:44.799 of the others to get in thething done. So that's the first thing. 310 00:27:45.079 --> 00:27:53.200 And the second point is that in sorry, what I think, what's going 311 00:27:53.279 --> 00:27:57.680 to make for us? Well, maybe it'll come back to your So last 312 00:27:57.720 --> 00:28:02.119 thing I was going to ask about is speaking here shortly after Donald Trump has 313 00:28:02.160 --> 00:28:06.079 been convicted in this crazy kangaroo court. By the way, I'm going to 314 00:28:06.079 --> 00:28:08.880 ask Tony Abbott and I forgot whether kangaroo Court is an insult to Australians, 315 00:28:08.920 --> 00:28:12.319 and he said, if you called the Wallaby Court it would be anyway. 316 00:28:14.720 --> 00:28:17.480 And I don't know you. We spent some time living in America some years 317 00:28:17.519 --> 00:28:19.599 ago, and I don't know what's your sense of things? I mean, 318 00:28:19.599 --> 00:28:22.839 I have a sense of where this is going, but I don't know do 319 00:28:22.839 --> 00:28:26.480 you have a prediction or expectation or what your what's your evaluation where things stand? 320 00:28:26.559 --> 00:28:30.759 Right? Yeah, I mean I think everybody seems to me that. 321 00:28:32.319 --> 00:28:36.880 And this is you know, I'm sitting in a comfortable office here in a 322 00:28:37.000 --> 00:28:41.920 country which is actually more reasonably at peace with itself because there are disputes and 323 00:28:42.039 --> 00:28:49.079 arguments, but still, and everybody, even the people who would be particularly 324 00:28:49.119 --> 00:28:55.799 favorable to all Man's government, there's they tend to look at what's going on 325 00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:59.680 in America and to be very worried about it. You must, and they 326 00:28:59.720 --> 00:29:06.240 also so there are people here who will tell you when I hear what the 327 00:29:06.319 --> 00:29:15.440 left is saying in America about gender, about immigration, about the about the 328 00:29:17.119 --> 00:29:22.039 about economics of all of these things, I feel that's what it reminds me 329 00:29:22.599 --> 00:29:26.720 of my youth when I was living under the Communists. And there is this 330 00:29:27.119 --> 00:29:37.039 sense that the kind of wokery is a kind of of Marxism that has gone 331 00:29:37.079 --> 00:29:41.119 to sleep for twenty years and woken up after with some very new ideas and 332 00:29:41.519 --> 00:29:48.039 so now that's an inadequate account, but nonetheless that's what people feel. And 333 00:29:48.119 --> 00:29:55.400 so I think the sense of anxiety for America is quite strong in Europe. 334 00:29:55.480 --> 00:29:59.160 And the second thing is I think in America, because of course I managed 335 00:29:59.200 --> 00:30:04.759 an American and live in America and come back and forth zon, is that 336 00:30:04.920 --> 00:30:11.440 sense of anxiety is quite strong there people. And that's true for England as 337 00:30:11.480 --> 00:30:18.880 well. We're living in a period of extreme nervousness about the people we put 338 00:30:18.920 --> 00:30:23.359 into government, which is interesting because the odd thing about the current campaign in 339 00:30:23.400 --> 00:30:30.079 the British election is how dullage is. It's very, very dull, and 340 00:30:30.880 --> 00:30:36.279 partly because it looks as though we're going to march in lockstep and with our 341 00:30:36.319 --> 00:30:41.160 eyes closed into voting for a labor government. And nobody likes that, but 342 00:30:41.240 --> 00:30:48.920 they somehow feel that it's inevitable. And I would say that probably that's probably 343 00:30:48.039 --> 00:30:55.359 right, But it also means that you cannot rule out a surprising reaction, 344 00:30:55.599 --> 00:31:00.400 maybe in reaction to some damaging event, and so right up to the last 345 00:31:00.440 --> 00:31:03.640 minute, I think people could change their mind. Yeah, you know, 346 00:31:03.759 --> 00:31:07.480 I kind of a hunter. It's going to be closer than people think too. 347 00:31:07.960 --> 00:31:10.519 I mean, you know, I think back to John Major pulling off 348 00:31:10.519 --> 00:31:12.240 an upset election. I mean, he was certainly a bland fellow I think, 349 00:31:12.319 --> 00:31:15.559 sound I suppose, but I think it was a great campaigner on the 350 00:31:15.559 --> 00:31:18.240 stuff is what people used to tell me. But yes, I don't think 351 00:31:18.240 --> 00:31:22.559 that was the reason I think. I mean, I'm not not attacking I 352 00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:26.720 mean, he fought to a good campaign. But the really interesting thing I 353 00:31:26.839 --> 00:31:32.319 think was the way in which there was a kind of people use the term 354 00:31:32.519 --> 00:31:37.240 Nurumberg style rally by labor a week beforehand, and I think that's a bit 355 00:31:37.359 --> 00:31:45.079 unfer tokay. But and people kind of rebelled against the notion that these people 356 00:31:45.160 --> 00:31:51.200 were going to be running their lives the next and that could happen again. 357 00:31:51.799 --> 00:31:57.160 Though Kirshtarmer obviously thinks that's the main risk to him, and so he's running 358 00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:04.640 a campaign of extreme caution. And you have this very peculiar situation in which 359 00:32:04.720 --> 00:32:07.200 the Tories are saying we're going to spend more money on this and this and 360 00:32:07.240 --> 00:32:10.279 this right and I was saying, oh, I don't think so. We 361 00:32:10.359 --> 00:32:16.359 really have to reduce borrowing before we can think of spending money again. It's 362 00:32:16.720 --> 00:32:22.400 the two parties have changed personalities for the duration of the campaign, and of 363 00:32:22.519 --> 00:32:29.119 course it doesn't bode well for public policy, and certainly not for Tory policy. 364 00:32:29.359 --> 00:32:36.359 But and it's obviously in a sense fallacious that they can't hold their breath 365 00:32:36.400 --> 00:32:38.839 for four full years, can they? No? Right? I mean I 366 00:32:38.880 --> 00:32:43.440 think the Democrats. I mean, we think back to the famous Wellstone funeral 367 00:32:43.480 --> 00:32:45.839 in nineteen ninety four, I think it was, whatever year it was. 368 00:32:45.519 --> 00:32:50.240 Maybe there's more reason than that in two thousand and two, but I could 369 00:32:50.240 --> 00:32:52.240 easily see them doing the same kind of thing if they can turn anybody out. 370 00:32:52.279 --> 00:32:55.599 I mean, these Biden rallies are embarrassing. But yeah, and then 371 00:32:55.880 --> 00:33:00.279 that's very funny, of course, right, exactly, bigger crab. Well 372 00:33:01.160 --> 00:33:06.160 then, but your general analysis of the anxiety and happiness, that's why I 373 00:33:06.160 --> 00:33:09.240 think Trump is gonna win, and maybe win big. We don't know. 374 00:33:09.319 --> 00:33:14.039 It's a strange world, but that's what I expect right now. Well, 375 00:33:14.400 --> 00:33:16.079 yes, and I can see why you do, and I probably would show 376 00:33:16.119 --> 00:33:22.319 your view. The one thing which alarms me slidely is, given the very 377 00:33:22.400 --> 00:33:30.640 good reasons for anxiety and nervousness, why isn't his lead bigger in the states. 378 00:33:30.079 --> 00:33:35.599 The key states it's four put four points, five points, three points. 379 00:33:36.000 --> 00:33:39.559 I'm surprised it's not more. And I recently read an arka by a 380 00:33:39.559 --> 00:33:45.319 guy on the left who argued, I think, very reasonably and interestingly and 381 00:33:45.359 --> 00:33:50.359 from his own point of view, it wasn't his advantage. He said he 382 00:33:50.440 --> 00:33:59.319 thinks that the figures for the Democrat turnout are false and that that the victory 383 00:33:59.359 --> 00:34:06.200 will be bigger for Trump partly because the figures are misleadingly good for the Democrats. 384 00:34:06.480 --> 00:34:08.840 Yes, I mean we now have two big elections where Trump ran ahead 385 00:34:08.840 --> 00:34:13.239 of his polls. Yeah, and why wouldn't you expect that? I know 386 00:34:13.280 --> 00:34:15.519 the posters are trying to correct and all kinds of things, but then they're 387 00:34:15.800 --> 00:34:20.679 scared of death of all these surveys showing growing strength among minority voters for Trump. 388 00:34:20.679 --> 00:34:22.679 Oh yeah. I did ask Glenn Lowry the other day, who's got 389 00:34:22.679 --> 00:34:29.119 this terrific new look out about He has criticized conservatives for not sort of giving 390 00:34:29.199 --> 00:34:31.199 up on blacks and inner city and I kind of agree with him in a 391 00:34:31.199 --> 00:34:34.599 certain extent. I asked him, whatever happened to Enterprise Zone? Do you 392 00:34:34.599 --> 00:34:37.880 remember those forty years ago? Nothing ever came of that really, and there's 393 00:34:37.880 --> 00:34:42.599 been no replacement that I've really seen. But yet you see these numbers of 394 00:34:42.880 --> 00:34:45.480 And Glenn's answer was simple. He says, it's not a vast majority, 395 00:34:45.519 --> 00:34:50.760 it's not a huge ground swell, but more and more blacks and Latinos are 396 00:34:50.840 --> 00:34:53.280 tired of being condescended too. I think there's something to that. Well. 397 00:34:53.920 --> 00:35:00.920 Glenn and I have been conversations back in the eighties in which I was trying 398 00:35:00.960 --> 00:35:05.480 to involve him in discussions and he was quite keen to be involved in fact, 399 00:35:06.920 --> 00:35:14.280 in which we discussed American the American identity as one that in principle did 400 00:35:14.679 --> 00:35:22.079 contain everybody, but but somehow or other, significant portions of my racial ethnic 401 00:35:22.119 --> 00:35:27.000 minorities didn't feel that it did. And what could we do about that? 402 00:35:27.199 --> 00:35:35.559 Now? As those conversations resulted in our in the National Review making the national 403 00:35:35.639 --> 00:35:38.639 question a major issue, and I think we now look very good in reference. 404 00:35:38.920 --> 00:35:43.039 Yes, and I think you know, so Glenn was part of that, 405 00:35:43.119 --> 00:35:46.320 but he and I we drift. I mean, there's nothing significant. 406 00:35:46.320 --> 00:35:51.440 He just had to do other things and so we and we lost touch of 407 00:35:51.480 --> 00:35:53.119 it. I'd like to make touch and I'd like to get in touch with 408 00:35:53.159 --> 00:35:57.440 him again, actually, because I do agree with you that he is very 409 00:35:57.480 --> 00:36:01.599 talented and he's pursuing an extremely interesting line of argument, and it's a line 410 00:36:01.639 --> 00:36:08.760 of argument which is creative and positive about the about identity as opposed to divisive 411 00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:14.400 and frankly absurd. Right. Well, John, thanks very much. I've 412 00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:17.679 been a terrific visit here in June. I'm looking forward to coming back again 413 00:36:17.760 --> 00:36:21.960 soon. That's great because you're always welcome here. And of course we have 414 00:36:22.239 --> 00:36:25.719 and we have a lot going on too, so I mean, I've just 415 00:36:25.920 --> 00:36:31.320 advise your listeners. You know, we have a website. Everything we do 416 00:36:31.599 --> 00:36:36.599 eventually ends up there, and sometimes it's a bit of a way because we 417 00:36:36.639 --> 00:36:39.000 have so many things going on, but it will all. And so when 418 00:36:39.159 --> 00:36:44.639 I when I hear, you know, people on the left say that we 419 00:36:44.760 --> 00:36:47.840 are dangerously reactionary, right, I say, well, okay, quote me, 420 00:36:47.920 --> 00:36:52.360 you know, yeah, right, No, I'm staggered by the level 421 00:36:52.360 --> 00:36:57.199 of activity not just here here at dannyb Institute, but at the MCC and 422 00:36:57.199 --> 00:37:00.320 there's all kinds of other things, the Center for Fundamental Right, and it's 423 00:37:00.360 --> 00:37:05.119 it's astounding the level of activity, I mean relative to the population or the 424 00:37:05.119 --> 00:37:07.440 size of it it's it's amazing, so you can learn a lot from him. 425 00:37:07.519 --> 00:37:40.679 So okay, thanks John, Thanks Steve Ricochet. Join the conversation.