Whole dollar currency war perspective that I take where it's almost like a almost like
a game of rock paper scissors, But I also equate it to an algebraic
equation of a tiny B. We'll ce where you've got your the dollar in
fiat currencies representing one of those factors, Golden heart currency representing another, and
then bitcoin and cryptoslash digital currency representing the third. You are listening to Carrie.
Let'sa's financial survival network where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
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and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than and welcome. You are listening
to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,
Eric Attock is with us now. You find him at inside track Trading dot
com. That's I n side Tracktrading dot com. So Eric. As far
as precious metals go, h we've been seeing some activity there record high gold
prices, but not so much for silver. I think that gold and silver,
particularly gold at this time, has reached a new plateau where it will
probably spend some time throughout the last six months. My work had been ever
since, ever since it turn positive in October last year, it was projecting
a surge up to into the April May time praying with the potential for a
final spike high in July. I'm still treating that as a possibility, although
I've had one or two indicators start to turn negative on gold for the one
to two month outlook, so I am looking at more of a consolidation phase
up here. When gold and silver surged into April and right into that April
nineteenth timeframe that I think we even talked about in some past discussions, gold
had reached its three to six month upside targets right around the twenty four forty
twenty four to fifty level. And then when we had that pullback into early
May and a new search where silver reached some of its three to six month
upside targets around the forty two dollars with gold only retesting its highs. You
began to get a little bit of that divergence at the at the highs,
with one of the markets making a significantly higher high, the other just making
a double top. And then as I alluded to a minute ago, gold
turned a weekly trend indicator that I follow closely turned that down. That's a
bit of a lagging and confirming indicator, but it just reinforced to me that
gold had probably set a three to four month top back in April, retested
it in May, and as I said before, it could see a retest
of it in July. But most of the other technicals are just showing me
that it needs some time before it can see a new advance. And with
that said, I do think there's going to be more upside out over the
six to twelve month timeframe. I think there are a lot of factors,
some that aren't even on traders readars, that are are positive for gold and
silver and probably will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. All Right,
so intermediate high and I think the same for silver, Yes, I
do. Silver. By reaching that thirty two dollars level. A little bit
above thirty two is where some of the targets I had came into play.
It fulfilled a multi month upside targets and usually when a market has had a
couple of surges like that, it needs some time to just establish a comfort
zone up at that new plateau and also awaked some slow send upwards sloping averages
to start to catch up with the markets. Anytime you get a market going
too far away from that moving equilibrium, it usually wants to come back to
it. And sometimes that's just by trading sideways and waiting for the averages to
catch up. Sometimes it's by declining enough to meet that rising average. But
that's one of the things that I think you're needing to see in gold and
silver at this time. Okay, so yeah, the tree does not grow
to the sky, and it needs time to consolidate, and that's kind of
kind of the natural course of events. So what about bitcoin that hit new
all time record highs Now it's hovering in the mid sixties to low seventies,
same situation there, A little bit different in bitcoin. I've often talked about
the whole dollar currency war perspective that I take when it's almost like a almost
like a game of rock paper scissors. But I also equate it to an
algebraic equation of a timey b we'll c where you've got your the dollar in
fiat currencies representing one of those factors golden hard currency representing another, and then
bitcoin and crypto slash digital currency representing the third. And usually you'll only get
one of those three moving significantly at any point in time, and the other
two are usually staying in more of a trading ring. When Bitcoin finally came
into a peak in the first half of March, that kind of allowed gold
to accelerate to the upside, even though they were both showing strength against the
dollar. They do it in different stages, and it's almost like one or
the other is attracting a lot of the speculative interest from anti dollar traders.
When bitcoin rallied into mid March, it fuld fill a lot of three to
six month cycles that I was watching. I had kind of laid out a
scenario last year where I thought we would see an overall serve into late February
early March of twenty twenty four, and then bitcoin would have to march some
time see seven corrections. But the long term outlook was still for higher highs
in twenty twenty five, and I think that's where Bitcoin has been now for
a few months, is trading at or below that mid March peak, and
I expect that peak to continue to hold for the coming months, So it
wouldn't surprise me to see some additional sell off in this time period over the
next couple months as bitcoin and cryptos just kind of similar to gold and silver
in that respect, as they set a new plateau and developed some comfort levels
up at those higher levels. Okay, and so let's talk about the dollar.
Since you brought it up hit its all time peak back in I guess
it was October, well not all time, but the recent October of twenty
two at one thirteen. Now it's been trading, you know, still trading
pretty robustly one oh six, one oh five. Right today, as we
talk on June twenty fourth, it's trading at one oh five five. I
think the last time we spoke to you were thinking it would be declining at
some point. I am looking at the dollar primarily from a longer term perspective,
and I do think that that late twenty twenty two peak was a major
top in the dollar, and there's many factors that go into that in my
thinking. But stepping back to the broadest perspective, I often discussed that what
I call the forty year cycle of currency war, and I trace it back
for hundreds of years in America at even many more hundreds of years in Europe.
And the conclusion that I had from that overall cycle is that you will
usually see finalees, you know, big significant culminating moves at the leading into
its transition of that cycle. And I was looking at twenty twenty one,
twenty twenty two as being the transition, kind of entering into a new forty
year cycle. And so from that perspective, the dollar was already looking like
its bull market, which really started in two thousand and eight, was coming
to a close. It had traced out a very classic textbook five wave advance.
From that two thousand and eight low I published many of my upside targets
surrounding one ten to one thirteen at the time, and I think you just
mentioned the dollar peaked at one thirteen, and there were a lot of corroborating
factors that went into that analysis that the dollar was studying a multi year high,
and that I think from a fundamental perspective, the handwriting was already on
the wall that when you looked through the through the previous decade, through the
twenty tens, that you saw a slowly developing but gaining momentum move for a
lot of other large trading nations attempting to move away from the dollar, attempting
to combat the dollar supremacy and hegemony throughout the world. And that just fits
so perfectly with this ongoing forty year cycle of currency war that the dollars supremacy
was coming to a close, coming to a culmination. And it doesn't mean
that suddenly the dollar is going to be replaced on the world stage as a
primary reserve currency. But when you factor in all of the debts of the
US and who holds that debt and what goes into the dollar valuation, it
wouldn't take that significant of a shift in the global reserve currency hierarchy to really
recavoc on the dollar, on the US economy, on interest rates. And
I think that's what we're looking at in the coming years. And you just
kind of keep hearing more and more events communicates into nations that are moving in
that direction. You know, is the year last year when the bricks Brazil,
Russia, India, China, and South Africa that monetary union, when
they invited another six nations to join, and several of them Middle East oil
producing nations. And that is moving towards a greater union, and one of
their primary things is combating a dollar supremacy and starting to do more international trade
in other currency. But even just in the last week or two, you
had some information coming out of Saudi Arabia talking about the rethinking the whole dollar
oil connection that had been in place since nineteen seventy three seventy four. That's
really what has propped up the dollar for this past fifty years, and now
there's more and more talk of starting to adjust that as well. And like
I said, it doesn't mean that suddenly the dollar's going to dry up and
disappear. That's often the conflicting feedback that I get. Well, how can
you say the dollars, you know, not going to be I never said
that. All I'm saying is that it's unmitigated supremacy is going to be challenged
and likely reduced, and that reduction will have serious ramifications as a result.
All right, Well, I guess it's been coming for a long time and
we shouldn't be too surprised by it. Should wake so, you know,
kind of ante and I should I didn't really, I guess I step on
the the big broad perspective there, just to follow up with that and answer
the rest of your question. I think that the dollar index saw an initial
sharp sell off into July of last year, and you can count that as
the first wave or a large A wave and a giant ABC correction, whatever
you want to turn it from, like an Elliot wave perspective. But when
you see a big sell off like that after market has been in a bowl
market for so long, then you often get a very extended and trading range
bound market in its fee wave or two wave kind of the reaction back towards
the upside. And I think that's what the dollar has been in for a
year now that it's it's more congestion, and as I was mentioning with bitcoin
and gold, they're adjusting to a higher plateau. I think the dollar is
setting a secondary lower plateau from where it peaked, and that when the time
is right, you'll start to see another wave of selling and something that starts
to break more significant support levels and starts to catch the attention of more and
more of the masses, and then you get that sudden rushing for the exits
type of thing. From a speculative standpoint, where it's like, oh wait,
a minute, we just broke multi year support. There's something going on
here. Oh look, you know there's been this move for ten years now
to start to unseat the dollar. And why wasn't I paying attention to this
type of reaction? Yeah? All right, Hey, so interest rates somehow
fit in with all this, don't they? Yes, they do, And
I think that they are going to go through a lot of kind of a
tug of war, a lot of push and pull where right now, I
don't think that that discussion of the dollar is a big factor in interest rates.
I will often reiterate to my readers what I call my axiom of market
correlation, and basically what it says, what it attempts to street is that
when you have two markets that are typically correlated, first off, you need
to know which is leading the other at any point in time, because they
often will alternate leadership. But second, it's usually when the leading market,
whichever that is, is in a very defined off an accelerated trend, that
that correlation kicks in. And so what I mean by that is, if
if you had dollar struggles suddenly prompting the need for interest rates to stay stable
or hire to try and attract value into the dollar. That would only be
the case, It would only be a strong correlation if the dollar was really
in a significant accelerated down trend. And conversely, if you're looking at interest
rates, if interest rates are leading the way, which they've been more the
leader over the last few years, and when you have higher interest rates attracting
or supporting the dollar, as they did up until that late twenty twenty two
peak, you had the anticipation of higher rates, and then once that starts
to peak or summits and starts to level off, then you get other factors,
independent factors of those two correlated markets, exerting a stronger influence. So
right now, I think that interest rates had their own supporting or influencing factors,
and they have been showing that after the long decline in bonds that we
saw from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, conversely, the long upward move
in interest rates that they need a decent amount of time, probably a year
or two of more treating range bound markets up and down as we get the
competing inflation numbers and economic numbers before you'll see a significant move in interest rates
either direction. Okay, reasonable, So what about oil energy. What are
we looking at there? I have been looking at oil from the perspective of
some fairly significant cycles. I have converging in the middle half of July,
and my thinking all long has been that that would more likely be a multi
month low in crude. When we had the sell off of the last month
or two, I had two primary downside targets for crude. One was right
around seventy three dollars and then the other was down at sixty nine to seventy
dollars. Crude plunged right to that seventy three dollars one and then has been
rebounding ever since. There's a couple of indicators I'm watching that are going to
be really critical on the week. We closed this week on June twenty eighth,
and as long as they stay the way they're at right now, crude
would still maintain the potential head back and retest its lows, maybe spike a
little lower in that middle July timeframe. But from there I think crude does
have assuming it follows that scenario, I do think that crude has some future
upside potential from there, but again, it's at a very critical point in
an overall cycle in an overall trend where I really need to see it validate
the remaining part of that analysis or the continuing scenario to play out otherwise,
and may have to say, Okay, this part of the outlook was wrong,
and it excuse the outlook for crude for the next three to six months.
But right now, I think that we could see a pretty significant low
in July, assuming we get another sell off here in the coming weeks.
Right, okay, so interesting. So any other markets you think we should
be paying attention to right now at this point? I think there were really
some of the primary leading markets. I don't know that anything else really stands
out at me right now. So I'd say that's a pretty good synopsis of
the big factors in the market, right Yeah. Well, certainly they're the
ones that we pay attention to every day, every week, and every month,
and certainly the most important ones by some reckoning, Although you could debate
whether metals are that big a deal right now. Do you think that focus
like on precious metals, once they surpass this intermediate plateau, do you think
there will be more attention to the sector. I think so, And it's
a little bit like what I was describing about market correlations and if and when
the dollar breaks some key support, I think that as gold and silver continue
to break upside find resistance levels, or in the case of gold, setting
new highs, that I think that will generate more and more attention. And
it's funny to me that when you go back to that October twenty twenty two
time frame, which was also the peak and the dollar index, as you
said, but was also a multi year cycle low in gold and silver,
they've had They had very consistent seven year lows in twenty fifteen, twenty eight,
twenty one, and twenty twenty two was the next phase of that cycle.
But you had these cycles and a lot of indicators saying, okay,
we should be entering a multi year up trend in gold and silver, and
then a few months into it, and then a year into it, you
start to hear and see the data on particularly China and the household buy of
gold, and that really underpinning that it wasn't just a reaction for the speculation
thing. It was a prolonged investment perspective. And at the same time,
you have the dollar starting to get chipped away at by other nations, and
you have interest rates peaking, which was helping to support the dollar, and
you had inflation growing even more. It's kind of this perfect storm for continuing
to support gold and silver out until my next multi year cycle high, which
comes into play in twenty twenty six. So I do think that there is
going to be more attention steadily focused on that as it climbs this wall of
worry or whatever it may be that is prompting gold and silver to head to
new highs. I even have some work in platinum and palladium that are showing
that they should be setting some interim bottoms here and they could see some decent
moves up into the first part of it next year. So it could be
a combination of factors that continue to support metals and start to draw more attention
to them. All Right, And finally, one other question, the impact
of the present election or its participation in these cycles. Are you seeing any
particular impact from it. It's funny because I've been over the last couple months
doing a lot of additional research on longer term cycles in in American elections and
the shift in party control, and I'm actually putting together an article on that
in my upcoming July Inside Track Newsletter. But I do think that it's going
to have a significant impact on a lot of these markets. And there are
future cycles in stock indexes and markets like the dollar that I think are all
kind of corroborating that outlook, that scenario. So yes, I do think
that the election is going to play a key role in a lot of these
markets. All right, all right, Well we're going to leave it at
that, So you want to go over to inside Track Trading. That's I
n sidetrack Trading dot com and check out Eric's work. If you've got a
question for Eric or myself, please shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs
dot com. You'll find a link to Eric's site in the show notes of
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Please when you're there, sign
up for your free newsletter. Eric. It's always a pleasure and we will
talk to you again soon and get your latest sounded great, Kerry, thanks
for having me, Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
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