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Whole dollar currency war perspective that I
take where it's almost like a almost like

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a game of rock paper scissors,
But I also equate it to an algebraic

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equation of a tiny B. We'll
ce where you've got your the dollar in

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fiat currencies representing one of those factors, Golden heart currency representing another, and

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then bitcoin and cryptoslash digital currency representing
the third. You are listening to Carrie.

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00:00:37,439 --> 00:00:43,159
Let'sa's financial survival network where you get
valuable information you just can't find anywhere

7
00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:49,439
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8
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:54,920
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9
00:00:54,960 --> 00:01:04,439
and gift. Financial Survival Network now
more than and welcome. You are listening

10
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:08,480
to the Financial Survival Network. I'm
your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,

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00:01:08,719 --> 00:01:14,519
Eric Attock is with us now.
You find him at inside track Trading dot

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com. That's I n side Tracktrading
dot com. So Eric. As far

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as precious metals go, h we've
been seeing some activity there record high gold

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prices, but not so much for
silver. I think that gold and silver,

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particularly gold at this time, has
reached a new plateau where it will

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probably spend some time throughout the last
six months. My work had been ever

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since, ever since it turn positive
in October last year, it was projecting

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a surge up to into the April
May time praying with the potential for a

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final spike high in July. I'm
still treating that as a possibility, although

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I've had one or two indicators start
to turn negative on gold for the one

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to two month outlook, so I
am looking at more of a consolidation phase

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up here. When gold and silver
surged into April and right into that April

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nineteenth timeframe that I think we even
talked about in some past discussions, gold

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had reached its three to six month
upside targets right around the twenty four forty

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twenty four to fifty level. And
then when we had that pullback into early

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May and a new search where silver
reached some of its three to six month

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upside targets around the forty two dollars
with gold only retesting its highs. You

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began to get a little bit of
that divergence at the at the highs,

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with one of the markets making a
significantly higher high, the other just making

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a double top. And then as
I alluded to a minute ago, gold

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turned a weekly trend indicator that I
follow closely turned that down. That's a

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bit of a lagging and confirming indicator, but it just reinforced to me that

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gold had probably set a three to
four month top back in April, retested

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it in May, and as I
said before, it could see a retest

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of it in July. But most
of the other technicals are just showing me

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that it needs some time before it
can see a new advance. And with

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that said, I do think there's
going to be more upside out over the

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six to twelve month timeframe. I
think there are a lot of factors,

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some that aren't even on traders readars, that are are positive for gold and

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silver and probably will continue to be
so for the foreseeable future. All Right,

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00:04:24,639 --> 00:04:30,600
so intermediate high and I think the
same for silver, Yes, I

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do. Silver. By reaching that
thirty two dollars level. A little bit

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above thirty two is where some of
the targets I had came into play.

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It fulfilled a multi month upside targets
and usually when a market has had a

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couple of surges like that, it
needs some time to just establish a comfort

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zone up at that new plateau and
also awaked some slow send upwards sloping averages

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to start to catch up with the
markets. Anytime you get a market going

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too far away from that moving equilibrium, it usually wants to come back to

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00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:21,240
it. And sometimes that's just by
trading sideways and waiting for the averages to

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catch up. Sometimes it's by declining
enough to meet that rising average. But

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that's one of the things that I
think you're needing to see in gold and

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silver at this time. Okay,
so yeah, the tree does not grow

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to the sky, and it needs
time to consolidate, and that's kind of

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00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:50,199
kind of the natural course of events. So what about bitcoin that hit new

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00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:57,639
all time record highs Now it's hovering
in the mid sixties to low seventies,

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00:05:59,199 --> 00:06:05,720
same situation there, A little bit
different in bitcoin. I've often talked about

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the whole dollar currency war perspective that
I take when it's almost like a almost

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like a game of rock paper scissors. But I also equate it to an

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algebraic equation of a timey b we'll
c where you've got your the dollar in

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00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:39,920
fiat currencies representing one of those factors
golden hard currency representing another, and then

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bitcoin and crypto slash digital currency representing
the third. And usually you'll only get

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one of those three moving significantly at
any point in time, and the other

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two are usually staying in more of
a trading ring. When Bitcoin finally came

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into a peak in the first half
of March, that kind of allowed gold

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to accelerate to the upside, even
though they were both showing strength against the

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dollar. They do it in different
stages, and it's almost like one or

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the other is attracting a lot of
the speculative interest from anti dollar traders.

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When bitcoin rallied into mid March,
it fuld fill a lot of three to

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six month cycles that I was watching. I had kind of laid out a

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scenario last year where I thought we
would see an overall serve into late February

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early March of twenty twenty four,
and then bitcoin would have to march some

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time see seven corrections. But the
long term outlook was still for higher highs

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in twenty twenty five, and I
think that's where Bitcoin has been now for

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a few months, is trading at
or below that mid March peak, and

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I expect that peak to continue to
hold for the coming months, So it

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wouldn't surprise me to see some additional
sell off in this time period over the

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next couple months as bitcoin and cryptos
just kind of similar to gold and silver

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in that respect, as they set
a new plateau and developed some comfort levels

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up at those higher levels. Okay, and so let's talk about the dollar.

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Since you brought it up hit its
all time peak back in I guess

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it was October, well not all
time, but the recent October of twenty

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00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:07,440
two at one thirteen. Now it's
been trading, you know, still trading

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00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,720
pretty robustly one oh six, one
oh five. Right today, as we

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talk on June twenty fourth, it's
trading at one oh five five. I

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think the last time we spoke to
you were thinking it would be declining at

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some point. I am looking at
the dollar primarily from a longer term perspective,

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and I do think that that late
twenty twenty two peak was a major

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top in the dollar, and there's
many factors that go into that in my

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thinking. But stepping back to the
broadest perspective, I often discussed that what

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I call the forty year cycle of
currency war, and I trace it back

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for hundreds of years in America at
even many more hundreds of years in Europe.

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And the conclusion that I had from
that overall cycle is that you will

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usually see finalees, you know,
big significant culminating moves at the leading into

94
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its transition of that cycle. And
I was looking at twenty twenty one,

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twenty twenty two as being the transition, kind of entering into a new forty

96
00:10:30,759 --> 00:10:39,919
year cycle. And so from that
perspective, the dollar was already looking like

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its bull market, which really started
in two thousand and eight, was coming

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to a close. It had traced
out a very classic textbook five wave advance.

99
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From that two thousand and eight low
I published many of my upside targets

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surrounding one ten to one thirteen at
the time, and I think you just

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mentioned the dollar peaked at one thirteen, and there were a lot of corroborating

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00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:18,000
factors that went into that analysis that
the dollar was studying a multi year high,

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and that I think from a fundamental
perspective, the handwriting was already on

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the wall that when you looked through
the through the previous decade, through the

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twenty tens, that you saw a
slowly developing but gaining momentum move for a

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lot of other large trading nations attempting
to move away from the dollar, attempting

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to combat the dollar supremacy and hegemony
throughout the world. And that just fits

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so perfectly with this ongoing forty year
cycle of currency war that the dollars supremacy

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was coming to a close, coming
to a culmination. And it doesn't mean

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that suddenly the dollar is going to
be replaced on the world stage as a

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primary reserve currency. But when you
factor in all of the debts of the

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US and who holds that debt and
what goes into the dollar valuation, it

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wouldn't take that significant of a shift
in the global reserve currency hierarchy to really

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recavoc on the dollar, on the
US economy, on interest rates. And

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I think that's what we're looking at
in the coming years. And you just

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00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:16,639
kind of keep hearing more and more
events communicates into nations that are moving in

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that direction. You know, is
the year last year when the bricks Brazil,

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00:13:24,919 --> 00:13:30,240
Russia, India, China, and
South Africa that monetary union, when

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they invited another six nations to join, and several of them Middle East oil

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producing nations. And that is moving
towards a greater union, and one of

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their primary things is combating a dollar
supremacy and starting to do more international trade

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in other currency. But even just
in the last week or two, you

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00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:18,919
had some information coming out of Saudi
Arabia talking about the rethinking the whole dollar

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00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:24,320
oil connection that had been in place
since nineteen seventy three seventy four. That's

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really what has propped up the dollar
for this past fifty years, and now

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there's more and more talk of starting
to adjust that as well. And like

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I said, it doesn't mean that
suddenly the dollar's going to dry up and

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00:14:43,039 --> 00:14:50,440
disappear. That's often the conflicting feedback
that I get. Well, how can

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00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,759
you say the dollars, you know, not going to be I never said

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00:14:52,759 --> 00:15:03,320
that. All I'm saying is that
it's unmitigated supremacy is going to be challenged

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and likely reduced, and that reduction
will have serious ramifications as a result.

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All right, Well, I guess
it's been coming for a long time and

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we shouldn't be too surprised by it. Should wake so, you know,

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kind of ante and I should I
didn't really, I guess I step on

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00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:33,039
the the big broad perspective there,
just to follow up with that and answer

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00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:39,840
the rest of your question. I
think that the dollar index saw an initial

137
00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:46,519
sharp sell off into July of last
year, and you can count that as

138
00:15:46,639 --> 00:15:50,919
the first wave or a large A
wave and a giant ABC correction, whatever

139
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:56,159
you want to turn it from,
like an Elliot wave perspective. But when

140
00:15:56,200 --> 00:16:00,480
you see a big sell off like
that after market has been in a bowl

141
00:16:00,519 --> 00:16:07,600
market for so long, then you
often get a very extended and trading range

142
00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:15,399
bound market in its fee wave or
two wave kind of the reaction back towards

143
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,960
the upside. And I think that's
what the dollar has been in for a

144
00:16:21,039 --> 00:16:27,679
year now that it's it's more congestion, and as I was mentioning with bitcoin

145
00:16:27,759 --> 00:16:33,320
and gold, they're adjusting to a
higher plateau. I think the dollar is

146
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:41,720
setting a secondary lower plateau from where
it peaked, and that when the time

147
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:47,360
is right, you'll start to see
another wave of selling and something that starts

148
00:16:47,399 --> 00:16:52,559
to break more significant support levels and
starts to catch the attention of more and

149
00:16:52,639 --> 00:16:59,639
more of the masses, and then
you get that sudden rushing for the exits

150
00:16:59,679 --> 00:17:03,840
type of thing. From a speculative
standpoint, where it's like, oh wait,

151
00:17:03,879 --> 00:17:07,200
a minute, we just broke multi
year support. There's something going on

152
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:12,160
here. Oh look, you know
there's been this move for ten years now

153
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:19,000
to start to unseat the dollar.
And why wasn't I paying attention to this

154
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:26,400
type of reaction? Yeah? All
right, Hey, so interest rates somehow

155
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,559
fit in with all this, don't
they? Yes, they do, And

156
00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:34,799
I think that they are going to
go through a lot of kind of a

157
00:17:34,839 --> 00:17:38,880
tug of war, a lot of
push and pull where right now, I

158
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:47,440
don't think that that discussion of the
dollar is a big factor in interest rates.

159
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:53,440
I will often reiterate to my readers
what I call my axiom of market

160
00:17:53,519 --> 00:18:00,559
correlation, and basically what it says, what it attempts to street is that

161
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:07,200
when you have two markets that are
typically correlated, first off, you need

162
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:11,480
to know which is leading the other
at any point in time, because they

163
00:18:11,759 --> 00:18:18,640
often will alternate leadership. But second, it's usually when the leading market,

164
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:25,680
whichever that is, is in a
very defined off an accelerated trend, that

165
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,920
that correlation kicks in. And so
what I mean by that is, if

166
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:40,319
if you had dollar struggles suddenly prompting
the need for interest rates to stay stable

167
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:45,200
or hire to try and attract value
into the dollar. That would only be

168
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:49,960
the case, It would only be
a strong correlation if the dollar was really

169
00:18:51,079 --> 00:18:57,880
in a significant accelerated down trend.
And conversely, if you're looking at interest

170
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:02,440
rates, if interest rates are leading
the way, which they've been more the

171
00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:11,000
leader over the last few years,
and when you have higher interest rates attracting

172
00:19:11,279 --> 00:19:17,119
or supporting the dollar, as they
did up until that late twenty twenty two

173
00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:26,599
peak, you had the anticipation of
higher rates, and then once that starts

174
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:37,000
to peak or summits and starts to
level off, then you get other factors,

175
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:44,240
independent factors of those two correlated markets, exerting a stronger influence. So

176
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:51,680
right now, I think that interest
rates had their own supporting or influencing factors,

177
00:19:52,319 --> 00:19:57,720
and they have been showing that after
the long decline in bonds that we

178
00:19:57,799 --> 00:20:04,039
saw from twenty twenty to twenty twenty
three, conversely, the long upward move

179
00:20:04,079 --> 00:20:11,640
in interest rates that they need a
decent amount of time, probably a year

180
00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:19,799
or two of more treating range bound
markets up and down as we get the

181
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:29,440
competing inflation numbers and economic numbers before
you'll see a significant move in interest rates

182
00:20:29,599 --> 00:20:36,440
either direction. Okay, reasonable,
So what about oil energy. What are

183
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:41,240
we looking at there? I have
been looking at oil from the perspective of

184
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:49,680
some fairly significant cycles. I have
converging in the middle half of July,

185
00:20:52,039 --> 00:20:57,680
and my thinking all long has been
that that would more likely be a multi

186
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:04,160
month low in crude. When we
had the sell off of the last month

187
00:21:04,279 --> 00:21:11,440
or two, I had two primary
downside targets for crude. One was right

188
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,119
around seventy three dollars and then the
other was down at sixty nine to seventy

189
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:22,599
dollars. Crude plunged right to that
seventy three dollars one and then has been

190
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:29,119
rebounding ever since. There's a couple
of indicators I'm watching that are going to

191
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,319
be really critical on the week.
We closed this week on June twenty eighth,

192
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:38,640
and as long as they stay the
way they're at right now, crude

193
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:45,440
would still maintain the potential head back
and retest its lows, maybe spike a

194
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:52,319
little lower in that middle July timeframe. But from there I think crude does

195
00:21:52,440 --> 00:22:00,200
have assuming it follows that scenario,
I do think that crude has some future

196
00:22:00,279 --> 00:22:10,000
upside potential from there, but again, it's at a very critical point in

197
00:22:10,039 --> 00:22:17,359
an overall cycle in an overall trend
where I really need to see it validate

198
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:25,839
the remaining part of that analysis or
the continuing scenario to play out otherwise,

199
00:22:26,039 --> 00:22:30,200
and may have to say, Okay, this part of the outlook was wrong,

200
00:22:30,279 --> 00:22:34,839
and it excuse the outlook for crude
for the next three to six months.

201
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,440
But right now, I think that
we could see a pretty significant low

202
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:45,000
in July, assuming we get another
sell off here in the coming weeks.

203
00:22:45,519 --> 00:22:52,000
Right, okay, so interesting.
So any other markets you think we should

204
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:56,759
be paying attention to right now at
this point? I think there were really

205
00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:02,559
some of the primary leading markets.
I don't know that anything else really stands

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out at me right now. So
I'd say that's a pretty good synopsis of

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the big factors in the market,
right Yeah. Well, certainly they're the

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ones that we pay attention to every
day, every week, and every month,

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and certainly the most important ones by
some reckoning, Although you could debate

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whether metals are that big a deal
right now. Do you think that focus

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like on precious metals, once they
surpass this intermediate plateau, do you think

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there will be more attention to the
sector. I think so, And it's

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a little bit like what I was
describing about market correlations and if and when

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the dollar breaks some key support,
I think that as gold and silver continue

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to break upside find resistance levels,
or in the case of gold, setting

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new highs, that I think that
will generate more and more attention. And

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it's funny to me that when you
go back to that October twenty twenty two

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time frame, which was also the
peak and the dollar index, as you

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said, but was also a multi
year cycle low in gold and silver,

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they've had They had very consistent seven
year lows in twenty fifteen, twenty eight,

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twenty one, and twenty twenty two
was the next phase of that cycle.

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But you had these cycles and a
lot of indicators saying, okay,

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we should be entering a multi year
up trend in gold and silver, and

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then a few months into it,
and then a year into it, you

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start to hear and see the data
on particularly China and the household buy of

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gold, and that really underpinning that
it wasn't just a reaction for the speculation

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thing. It was a prolonged investment
perspective. And at the same time,

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you have the dollar starting to get
chipped away at by other nations, and

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you have interest rates peaking, which
was helping to support the dollar, and

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you had inflation growing even more.
It's kind of this perfect storm for continuing

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to support gold and silver out until
my next multi year cycle high, which

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comes into play in twenty twenty six. So I do think that there is

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going to be more attention steadily focused
on that as it climbs this wall of

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worry or whatever it may be that
is prompting gold and silver to head to

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new highs. I even have some
work in platinum and palladium that are showing

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that they should be setting some interim
bottoms here and they could see some decent

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moves up into the first part of
it next year. So it could be

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a combination of factors that continue to
support metals and start to draw more attention

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to them. All Right, And
finally, one other question, the impact

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of the present election or its participation
in these cycles. Are you seeing any

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particular impact from it. It's funny
because I've been over the last couple months

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doing a lot of additional research on
longer term cycles in in American elections and

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the shift in party control, and
I'm actually putting together an article on that

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in my upcoming July Inside Track Newsletter. But I do think that it's going

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to have a significant impact on a
lot of these markets. And there are

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future cycles in stock indexes and markets
like the dollar that I think are all

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kind of corroborating that outlook, that
scenario. So yes, I do think

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that the election is going to play
a key role in a lot of these

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markets. All right, all right, Well we're going to leave it at

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that, So you want to go
over to inside Track Trading. That's I

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00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:03,640
n sidetrack Trading dot com and check
out Eric's work. If you've got a

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00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,880
question for Eric or myself, please
shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs

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00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,559
dot com. You'll find a link
to Eric's site in the show notes of

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00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:15,240
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot
com. Please when you're there, sign

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00:28:15,279 --> 00:28:19,119
up for your free newsletter. Eric. It's always a pleasure and we will

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00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:25,000
talk to you again soon and get
your latest sounded great, Kerry, thanks

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00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:30,160
for having me, Thanks for listening
to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

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00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:36,200
solution to today's trying times. For
the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,480
com. Financial Survival Network now more
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