WEBVTT 1 00:00:03.200 --> 00:00:07.559 With a Rod Sago and from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin. This is 2 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:13.640 Redefining Energy minutes today on in Redefining Energy, we're going to talk about the 3 00:00:13.679 --> 00:00:21.079 future solar in Europe and we have the pleasure and privilege of having Walburga Hemmetzberger, 4 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:26.399 the CEO of Solar Europe, to discuss the development of Walburga. Welcome 5 00:00:26.440 --> 00:00:29.600 to the show. Thanks a lot for inviting me. Happy to be on 6 00:00:29.640 --> 00:00:33.320 the show. I'm a big fan. Thank you. First question for our 7 00:00:33.320 --> 00:00:37.960 listeners, can you remind us a bit what our Europe does? Very happy 8 00:00:38.000 --> 00:00:43.280 to Sola p our Europe. We're the association representing the European solar PV sector. 9 00:00:43.759 --> 00:00:47.200 We're based in Brussels, so from our office we see the main building 10 00:00:47.240 --> 00:00:51.280 from the European Commission, the Belmont and what we do is we unite more 11 00:00:51.320 --> 00:00:58.200 than three hundred companies and national associations and we try to shape the best regulations 12 00:00:58.240 --> 00:01:02.479 and the best business landscape for solar to grow. But we also bring the 13 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:07.400 industry together in events and provide some market intelligence to help solar business rife. 14 00:01:07.840 --> 00:01:11.680 And we've been doing all of that quite successful in the last years. I'm 15 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:15.879 very happy that we just received the award Best European Association of the Year, 16 00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:19.799 and I hope this is encouraging more companies to join us as well. Talking 17 00:01:19.799 --> 00:01:26.000 about celebration, we were all at inter Solar in Munich last months, which 18 00:01:26.040 --> 00:01:30.280 was kind of insane. I think we were one hundred and twenty thousand visitors. 19 00:01:30.599 --> 00:01:34.920 What were your impression, Wilbarga. Indeed, it was the most buzzing 20 00:01:34.959 --> 00:01:41.280 into solar. I have been witnessing more than three thousand exhibitors and you mentioned 21 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:46.359 the number of visitors. We also saw that flexibility is becoming more important, 22 00:01:47.040 --> 00:01:53.920 so more exhibitors also exhibiting in storage and other flexibility solutions. And when we 23 00:01:53.920 --> 00:01:59.040 were talking to companies, it was clear that the market environment is difficult, 24 00:01:59.400 --> 00:02:04.319 but at the same time it is very buzzing and the sector remains positive for 25 00:02:04.400 --> 00:02:07.439 the future. One thing that I was really taken back by was this balcony 26 00:02:07.479 --> 00:02:10.560 solar, and the reason I was taken back by it was because it's just 27 00:02:10.840 --> 00:02:16.080 so simple to install and it's so low cost to install. Yeah, I 28 00:02:16.159 --> 00:02:21.120 keep playing with my head again and again because it sort of looks like solar 29 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:23.599 is just going to another level with sort of it's like plug and play solar. 30 00:02:23.639 --> 00:02:27.800 That's what we're sort of saying, Yeah, definitely, and it's particularly 31 00:02:27.800 --> 00:02:32.080 trending in Germany, and it came during the energy crisis where everyone was just 32 00:02:32.080 --> 00:02:36.879 trying to install solar wherever. But now when you're talking about plug and play, 33 00:02:37.159 --> 00:02:40.439 one other application that is, it seems is trending is fences because it's 34 00:02:40.520 --> 00:02:46.039 cheaper to install solar than buying a fence. But indeed it is so versatile 35 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:49.680 that you can install it a bit everywhere and people are taking advantage of it. 36 00:02:50.080 --> 00:02:53.639 And of course there are always questions about what's the best use for solar. 37 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:55.919 Is it going to be on rooftops, is it going to be as 38 00:02:55.960 --> 00:03:00.599 you said, on fences, or there are questions sort of countries about large 39 00:03:00.759 --> 00:03:07.479 archcultural land like Italy. So how do you see the landscape of how solar 40 00:03:07.599 --> 00:03:12.120 is used? As you might know, we're producing outlooks every year, the 41 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:16.560 European market outlook and the global market outlook for solar PV and what we do 42 00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:23.960 see is that both solar rooftop but also utility scale will be further developing. 43 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:29.439 It will be different in different countries, so some are putting more emphasis on 44 00:03:29.759 --> 00:03:34.560 rooftop and some others are bigger when it comes to utility scale. During the 45 00:03:34.599 --> 00:03:39.840 crisis, we have seen that two thirds of solar went onto roofs. But 46 00:03:40.240 --> 00:03:45.840 going forward, we do think that it will be fifty to fifty because we 47 00:03:45.879 --> 00:03:50.240 need both and we need as much as we can both on the ground and 48 00:03:50.319 --> 00:03:53.719 on roofs and all kinds of other structures as well. Can I ask you 49 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:55.560 to talk a little bit about the size of the markers and just to put 50 00:03:55.599 --> 00:03:59.639 it into respective, like last year to this year, is the market growing 51 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:03.240 and how you see it the next few years. In our European market outlook, 52 00:04:03.280 --> 00:04:06.639 what we're showing is that the last three years we had stellar growth. 53 00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:12.159 We were growing more than forty percent every year. Just last year, we're 54 00:04:12.199 --> 00:04:15.120 installed more than sixty gigabot of solar and that's, by the way, the 55 00:04:15.160 --> 00:04:18.199 latest figures. Because the European market out look at the end of last year, 56 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:25.399 we're still estimating fifty six fifty seven gigawa and we have been upscaling that 57 00:04:25.480 --> 00:04:28.560 now. In our global market outlooks, so more than sixty gigaba of solar 58 00:04:28.959 --> 00:04:34.480 that went online last year. Going forward, the growth will slow down in 59 00:04:34.600 --> 00:04:41.319 terms of percentage of growth. But still we will continue growing also in the 60 00:04:41.360 --> 00:04:46.240 next couple of years, and we estimate that very soon we will be having 61 00:04:46.240 --> 00:04:49.759 a one hundred gigawat market in Europe. One hundred year gigawats per year, 62 00:04:49.920 --> 00:04:55.360 right you think that's per year? Yes, okay, Amaze. These are 63 00:04:55.360 --> 00:04:58.600 the good news, but of course it creates a lot of stress on the 64 00:04:58.639 --> 00:05:02.680 grid. And that's probably good time to jump into your new report because you've 65 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:09.560 been addressing a lot of issues and remdiation. So can you introduce your reports 66 00:05:09.600 --> 00:05:13.680 please, your latest report. Indeed, we published a report which we call 67 00:05:13.759 --> 00:05:16.959 Mission Solar twenty forty a couple of days ago, and if I have to 68 00:05:17.000 --> 00:05:23.240 summarize it in one sentence, is that we cannot continue business as usual, 69 00:05:23.720 --> 00:05:28.319 but we need a flexibility revolution for the reasons that you mentioned already, Laurent. 70 00:05:28.959 --> 00:05:31.800 We are entering into a phase where it will be more difficult to connect 71 00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:36.519 solar to the grid because the grid development is not following as fast as we 72 00:05:36.600 --> 00:05:42.720 would need, and we need to make sure that it is also remaining attractive 73 00:05:42.759 --> 00:05:46.560 for solar developers to develop solar further. If we want to be serious about 74 00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:50.720 the energy transition, and if we want to take full advantage of the benefits 75 00:05:50.720 --> 00:05:56.879 of renobles and solar. In particular, we need to add much more flexibility 76 00:05:57.079 --> 00:06:02.879 to the system. We have been looking in to maximizing supply side flexibility like 77 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:10.680 batteries, storage more generally and cross border electricity degrees, together with switching on 78 00:06:11.000 --> 00:06:16.000 the demand side flexibility, and that is electrification big times. Because electrification we're 79 00:06:16.079 --> 00:06:20.360 not progressing as fast as we should, so we need to go much faster. 80 00:06:20.680 --> 00:06:26.639 Flexibility coming from heat pumps, from evs and from electrolyzers. And if 81 00:06:26.639 --> 00:06:32.720 we're working with top notch energy system modelers attelis and the results are pretty convincing 82 00:06:32.759 --> 00:06:38.519 and staggering up just to take you through them. We will substantially reduce greenhouse 83 00:06:38.519 --> 00:06:44.360 gas emissions five hundred and fifty five million tons in twenty forty and that's the 84 00:06:44.399 --> 00:06:49.720 annual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. So this is virtually eliminating carbon emissions from 85 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:55.639 the power sector. So that's the first result. The second one is that 86 00:06:55.680 --> 00:06:59.480 it's also much cheaper for the energy system. If we are embarking on a 87 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:04.959 flexibit revolution, we can already save thirty billion years per year in twenty thirty 88 00:07:05.519 --> 00:07:11.279 and the staggering amount of one hundred and sixty billion by twenty forty. So 89 00:07:11.279 --> 00:07:15.279 that's the second finding. The third finding is that it also comes much cheaper 90 00:07:15.319 --> 00:07:20.519 for electricity users, and that's for sure a very good news for European industry 91 00:07:20.519 --> 00:07:27.199 who is longing for more competitive energy prices. So the average day ahead power 92 00:07:27.240 --> 00:07:30.680 price would be reduced by thirty three percent in twenty forty compared to today. 93 00:07:31.360 --> 00:07:36.040 And the last finding is that you might think this is bad for the solar 94 00:07:36.079 --> 00:07:42.360 business if electricity prices are reduced, but the contrary is true. It means 95 00:07:42.639 --> 00:07:46.439 more revenues also for the solar business, and that is improving the business case 96 00:07:46.439 --> 00:07:49.040 which at the moment, and that was also you know what we heard at 97 00:07:49.040 --> 00:07:55.399 Intersolar for many players is a little bit under pressure because what it does is 98 00:07:55.439 --> 00:08:01.639 that solar curtailment would fall by twenty forty. There is sixty six percent less 99 00:08:01.639 --> 00:08:07.959 waste of solar electrons, so solar curtailment down, capture prices up, and 100 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:11.279 summarizing all of that, what it does for solar is that we will be 101 00:08:11.279 --> 00:08:16.800 growing much much more than predicted. So you know that the European Commission has 102 00:08:16.800 --> 00:08:22.600 a goal of seven hundred and fifty gigawa. With all of these measures taken, 103 00:08:22.920 --> 00:08:26.879 we would easily get to one point two urvat by twenty thirty and two 104 00:08:26.959 --> 00:08:30.600 point four to ter avot by twenty forty. Can I just ask you on 105 00:08:30.639 --> 00:08:35.000 that there, when you talk about one point two terootts of capacity, what 106 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:39.320 does that mean in terms of how much of sort of the electricity system then 107 00:08:39.360 --> 00:08:43.600 will be based on solar in terms of generation. When we're looking at those 108 00:08:43.639 --> 00:08:48.080 figures in twenty thirty, we will be round about thirty percent, and that 109 00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:50.840 is much higher in twenty fourteen. Okay, so that really is a revolution, 110 00:08:50.960 --> 00:08:54.120 right, That's what we're saying. So we're basically what we're saying is 111 00:08:54.159 --> 00:09:00.399 the future of the electricity system is based around solar. That's the reality spaced 112 00:09:00.399 --> 00:09:03.639 around solar and wind obviously, but solar indeed will be depending a little bit 113 00:09:03.679 --> 00:09:07.440 on the scenario we're looking at, we will be at thirty two percent, 114 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:11.559 and that same figure for twenty four it would be thirty nine percent. On 115 00:09:11.600 --> 00:09:15.720 the other handlook batteries right now, give you two hours, and we can 116 00:09:15.879 --> 00:09:18.080 envision that they're going to give you, let's say four hours, like in 117 00:09:18.120 --> 00:09:22.120 California and of course, there's a very seasonal aspect, so there will be 118 00:09:22.159 --> 00:09:26.120 a natural limit to how much you can grow solar. So I understand there's 119 00:09:26.120 --> 00:09:30.559 a lot of room in front of us. There's a lot of short term 120 00:09:30.600 --> 00:09:33.200 fix that we can do. But if we managed to run half of our 121 00:09:33.240 --> 00:09:39.120 gride on solar, it's great. I'm not criticizing here. We need the 122 00:09:39.320 --> 00:09:45.039 diversification certainly. It will alleviate the stress that you might have on the nuclear 123 00:09:45.120 --> 00:09:50.960 park during the summer and almost eliminate any use of gas for six months, 124 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:56.120 which means gas more going to be used for backup or storage for the winter. 125 00:09:56.320 --> 00:10:01.399 So what you're depicting is a market which really going to run on almost 126 00:10:01.600 --> 00:10:05.519 twenty four seven on solar, say from March to September, and then we 127 00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:11.120 need to design a market for the winter. Or am I just simplifying too 128 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:15.159 much? Yeah, this is why we're not looking at battery storage only, 129 00:10:15.279 --> 00:10:16.960 even if I have to say that this will be a big chunk of it. 130 00:10:18.639 --> 00:10:22.879 But we're also looking at, for example, electoralizers. We're also looking 131 00:10:22.879 --> 00:10:28.559 at increasing the interconnection, and that's on the supply side and the demand side. 132 00:10:28.559 --> 00:10:31.200 This is why we're also factoring in demand side flexibility. Here we look 133 00:10:31.240 --> 00:10:37.279 at heat pumps at electric vehicles, so there is a whole bundle of flexibility 134 00:10:37.279 --> 00:10:41.759 measures that we need to take. But it's true that battery will play a 135 00:10:41.879 --> 00:10:46.159 major role in it. Well, well, Borga, you get your plate 136 00:10:46.240 --> 00:10:50.519 full, but apparently you're also working on batteries, so you're over the place. 137 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:56.600 In conclusion, what's your take on batteries. Solar and storage are getting 138 00:10:56.600 --> 00:10:58.600 more and more best friends, this is why, and batteries are playing a 139 00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:05.480 very import in that. So we have been just recently also publishing our latest 140 00:11:05.519 --> 00:11:09.799 European market OUTGOG for battery storage, and there we're covering both the residential storage 141 00:11:09.840 --> 00:11:15.720 and a utility scale storage. We're looking into how the market is further developing, 142 00:11:16.080 --> 00:11:20.360 and we also have some dedicated workstreams at Solo Powup where we are looking 143 00:11:20.600 --> 00:11:24.639 at storage and where we are trying to push for more battery storage and storage 144 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:28.679 more generally. Fantastic, Well, Boga, thank you so much for coming 145 00:11:28.720 --> 00:11:33.000 on the show. Thank you very much for al Berger's great to have you. 146 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:35.320 It was a great pleasure talking to you. Thanks for having me, 147 00:11:37.279 --> 00:11:41.720 Thank you for listening to redefining Energy. Don't forget to rate the show, 148 00:11:41.840 --> 00:11:48.440 and subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, or the platform of your choice.