What is krack lackin Hardwin Knocks listeners, I am Dan Valley coming at you
without my fantabulous co host Adam Brammel. I am, however, super pleased
and excited to be joined by longtime friend of the podcast Adam Spinella. You
can follow him on Twitter at Spinella fourteen spelled exactly as it sounds. He
is the founder and the primary content provider for The Box and One. Follow
them on Twitter at the Box and One Underscore that's at thh E b O
x A N d O n E. Underscore does a great job breaking down
all things basketball, including the NBA, but is also just spectacular, as
I'm sure you know at analyzing the dress and so we are here to really
pick Spins coach Spins his brain about the NBA Draft. He is also for
anyone who needs to know and you should want to know the head basketball coach
at the boys' Latin school. Again, this dude knows his stuff. It's
been really cool to sort of see him come up through the NBA Draft basketball
ranks in general. I have known him for a long time. There is
nobody who works harder. He is great people, So it's a fun conversation,
but before we get started, I did want to touch on just some
of the more newsier splash year news notes that are floating around the league.
We have rumors about Zach Lavine, DeAndre Ayton, and then, most recently,
which is where we begin, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durrett and the Brooklyn
Nets. The New York Daily News Is Christian Winfield reported that the Nets as
of now are quote outright willing to give Kyrie Irving a long term extension he
holds his player option ahead of free agency this summer. Their stance is essentially
that they don't trust his availability, whether it's because of injury, and it
does seem like there are some hurt feelings or there's a lot of bubbling animosity
over Kyrie's decision to not get the COVID nineteen vaccine this past season or at
all yet, which played a huge role limiting him to sub thirty appearances,
also played a huge role in not only Kevin durants gargantuan workload, but James
Harden eventually forcing his way out of Brooklyn. Christian wouldn't you have? Also
reported within that same piece the Nets have not spoken with Kevin Durant since the
first round sweep. That of course lends itself to the question of, well,
if the Nets really want to move on from Kyrie Irving, what does
that mean about Kevin Durant. Here's the thing, this is where I land.
The Nets have to keep Kyrie Irving because they have assuming he wants to
even come back, because they just have no other choice. The getting rid
of him is not a luxury they have. If they also want to keep
Kevin Durant and not start over, it's just not possible for them right now.
You look at what could happen in terms of a Kyrie ring departure.
If he leaves him free agency and they just get nothing, that's that's disastrous.
That's just it's disastrous, And a lot of people put it out,
well, there's very few teams with cap space. He's not gonna want to
sign with Detroit or Orlando or San Antonio, YadA, YadA, YadA.
If he really wanted to. This would be the nuclear measure. But he
could go sign with, say the Spurs, and then they could trade him
once he's eligible to be traded in the middle of the year and just get
a bunch of assets for having rented him for a half season. That's that's
a scenario that teams in theory could be open too. I'd be curious to
see what the NBA's reaction would be if something like that did happen. But
Kyrie has done more nuclear things in the past, like requesting a trade from
the Cleveland Devil years after three straight finals appear and one NBA Championship, So
no, I wouldn't classify that as a likely scenario. But that is theoretically
what he could do if he was trying to box the nets into a corner
and force them to send him somewhere he wants to go. And that's the
other side of all this. They could sign and trade him and then in
theory, get compensation for his services. You're not in most cases making out
like a bandit in those situations. Maybe that's different this year, just because
there are so few teams with cap space that the ability to get someone like
Kyrie Irving is just so rare. Someone as good as him, if he's
going to be available for you on a night tonight, basis that you are
willing to give up more since that's your only pathway to getting him there.
There has to be a market for him. And I'm not saying teams won't
want Kyrie Irving. They want Kyrie Irving he's the top fifteen, twenty twenty
five player or whatever when he's fully available, which he just hasn't been in
forever. So it's tough to really peg where he stands within the rest of
the league star pecking order. There will be teams that want him, still,
will there be enough teams that want him or they're pulling up enough assets
to really help the Nets restock? I think that's a fair question, given
everything that has happened with Kyrie Irving in Cleveland, now in Boston, then
now in Brooklyn. And I think it was I believe it was Zach Low
who said this, there's probably no bigger discrepancy in the NBA right now than
the value between Kyrie Irving on the court and what teams would be willing to
give up to get him, or maybe even the number of teams that would
be willing to just push all their best chips in to try and get him.
I don't believe that it would be this particularly frothy market. Again,
there'd be options for Kyrie Irving. He would absolutely have options for the Nets,
though, to get back the assets necessary to either reload for a rebuild
that's not happening or stock the roster, stock the depth chart enough to get
Kevin Durant to stay without Kyrie Irving. That doesn't seem all that likely either,
You're You're just you're not getting I'd be flabber guests if they got another
star as part of the trade. And so what are you left with after
that? You're left with Kevin Durant, Ben Simmons who's coming off back surgery
and by next year won't have played basketball in more than a year. Some
solid role players Joe Harris hopefully he's healthy, Seth Curry, maybe you resigned
Bruce Brown and Nick Klaxton. Moving Kyrie should have opened your full non tax
payersman level. So there's that, and then the spare parts from the Kyrie
Irving trade itself. What is that team in an Eastern Conference that has Boston,
Milwaukee, Miami, Steven Toronto? Like, are the Nets better?
They weren't this year? We can point that out to you. Okay,
James Hart was injured, quit on the team. They don't have Kyrie Irving?
Is that team better? Than Toronto. If they are, it's because
Kevin Durant played in seventy something games and average thirty seven minutes per games.
That's not feasible. He has missed the combined one hundred and thirty plus games
over the past three seasons. He turns thirty four and steps he's not gonna
want to shoulder that workload. And so you're not deciding, if you're the
Nets, whether you want Kyrie Irving. You're effectively deciding whether you want Kyrie
Irving and Kevin Durant. These two were a packaged deal in twenty nineteen free
agency. There's nothing we've heard that makes us believe anything there has changed.
Again, there maybe is a pathway to the Nets convincing Kevin Durant that they
can win without Kyrie, but it's not particularly likely, and I throw the
contract here out the window. Grant is assigned through twenty twenty five, two
and twenty six without any early outs. The Nets can absolutely move on from
Irving and then just keep KD. In Fury Select Superstars. We are always
going to have a cachet to force a franchise's hand, no matter how much
time is left on their deal. Durant is among that exclusive click building around
disgruntled top seven players is untenable. If he wants out, Brooklyn doesn't just
have to listen. It's all but obligated to acquiesce. And there's like this,
there's this idea floating around that maybe Kevin Durant is just as frustrated with
Kyrie as the Nets or as James Harden was. I'm sure it's possible from
a basketball perspective, but he's come out on multiple occasions, and I think
he told Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports, you know, earlier this spring,
that he and Kyrie always going to be able to work it out off the
court, and that Kyrie irring is, you know, the relationship there is
so much deeper than basketball. It is also the lynch pin of why Kevin
Durant is in Brooklyn. He's not in Brooklyn to play for the Nets or
to maximize his chances at a third Kid Championship. He's in Brooklyn first and
foremost to play with Kyrie. He loses some of that incentive to be in
Brooklyn if if the Nets get rid of Kyrie. And here's sort of the
final thing, maybe this is the Nets taking a stand against everything that's happened
over the past couple of years. Now it's not the time for the Nets
to grow a backbone. The culture by committee that was is no more.
Superstars are their new culture. For better or worse. It isn't right,
nor is it wrong. It's the decision though, that the Nets made years
ago, then again and again since and deviating from it now by allowing or
encouraging Kyrie to leave isn't noble. It's a reversal that will set the Nets
back years and it will cost them. Kevin Durant that's just where I land
and all this. I believe both Kyrie and Kevin Durant will be in Brooklyn
next season. Maybe something seismic happens and it forces the Nets to blow things
up in the middle of the year or in a couple of seasons down the
line. I don't know. But they don't have the luxury of taking this
hardline stance on Kyrie. This feels like a negotiating ploy and it's not an
especially convincing one to me. And look just looming over all this, even
if you say, oh, the Nets, you just go start over.
What are you getting for Kyrie? We've already gone through that. What are
you getting for Kevin Durant? Are there any team would want Kevin Durant,
But he's still gonna have control over where he goes. Nobody is acquiring as
soon to be thirty four year old old one hundred and ninety four point two
million over the next four seasons without receiving that player's stamp of approval. And
then the teams that will reasonably resonate with Durant won't be ones that are drowning
in a plus trade chips or position to send back mega early lottery picks in
the summer succumb Two teams that I think stand out as destinations that might appeal
to Durant and then also have some centerpiece building box to throw Brooklyn's away.
There's Boston if they wanted to put Jayon Brown on the table, and again,
they won't necessarily want to do that. Kevin Durant is thirty four,
that's a like a I think it might. He's closer than not to a
decade older than Jalen Brown, and the Celtics might win the title of this
season. Yeah, Kevin Durant elevates that ceiling for a year or two.
But that's not a given that Boston would just surrender Jaalen Brown and Kevin Durant
talks. Let's make that clear, and then their Phoenix they can go the
ultra complicated deandret and sign and trade route. Those are probably the contenders who
are best suited to win over Katie and send Brooklyn back a ton of stuff
that at least sort of gives them a player who can help service springboard into
the future. Ironically, the Golden State Warriors probably fall under this thanks to
Jonathan Kmigo. But that's neither here nor there. Still, even the most
aggressive offers, they're not. They're gonna do a little to reload the nets
is it's neither hopelessly empty nor ever enviably stopped asset chest and so here you
are. If you're Brooklyn, you have to keep Kyrie. In my mind,
there's no other option. I will be smack you in the face surprised
if he is on a different team or if he's not on a different If
he is on a different team, let's just say he is. I will
then be shocked if Kevin Durant is with the Nets through the entirety of next
that's where this situation seems to be at and the Kyrie irving rumors. While
I believe Christian Winfield and maybe you just don't buy into the notion that Sean
Marks and co. Haven't spoken to Kevin rand and Weeks, that's fair,
that does not negate anything else that Christian reported, in my opinion, someone
who has proven very trustworthy in the past with his line of reporting and his
insight. So I believe that the Nets want to believe that they have this
type of leverage over Kyrie. I fail to believe though, that this is
anything more than much ado over nothing inside Brooklyn, because they just don't have
the luxury of controlling their own organization at this point. Again, I'm not
do what is it the route I would have taken, the extent to which
they gave the franchise to these two stars when you look at signing DeAndre Jordan
twenty nineteen, then letting Kenny Atkins and leave in March twenty and then again
when they hired Steve Asked, and yet again when they mortgage their future and
their depth to acquire James Hartman. Again still when they allowed Kyrie to rejoin
the team as a part time player this year. They've come too far down
this road to turn back, and so I fully expect Kyrie Irving and by
extension, Kevin Durant to both be in Brooklyn next season. We'll go through
these next two names in zach Levine and Deandret more quickly. Jake Fisher of
Bleacher Report did report that zach Levine's free agency is no longer considered a formality
necessarily for the Chicago Bulls leading into the summer, where it was always just
assumed that he would resign. I guess a lot of executives around the league
no longer believe that's the case. There has also been the report from Sean
Deviny of heavy dot Com where a lot of people around the league think that
all of this sort of hoop laws being drum up by Clutch Sports as leverage
in the negotiations. What all of this points to for me and sort of
has from the beginning, zach Levine's non restricted to regions, so if he
wants to leave, he can. He can absolutely leave. That's you know,
that's his prerogative. But when you're looking at just the guaranteed money difference
and the fact that he's had injuries in the past. He's dealing with an
injury right now. If he signs a four year max at five percent raises
with another team, he's looking at four years and one hundred and I think
it's fifty seven point four million dollars. If he signs that a five year
max with Chicago at eight percent races, he is going to be looking at
two hundred and twelve point three million dollars over five years versus again, one
fifty seven point four over four That's a huge difference. And I think for
a player like him, you're you're going to if you are him, what
I mean is you're gonna want to just guarantee that money and if you need
to figure out a way to get to a new team, you will do
so later. So what this boils down to me down for to me is
will the Bulls offer the full five year max. That is their their trounce
card here because they can't. They can still offer him more money over the
course of four years, but four years one sixty one sixty four about versus
four years one fifty seven point four that's not like a huge difference. So
their leverage is that five year boss. So if you offer it, you
keep zach Levine. If you don't, I would bank on him leaving.
And that's what it comes down to for me. I don't know that.
I love the teams that have been linked to zach Lavine, primarily by the
way Portland doesn't. It makes sense, but it doesn't. Why are you
going through all these hoops to transition from McCullum, Norman Powell, Damian Lillard
to Zach Levine, Damian Lillard and who Anthony Simons. I just I don't
see the vision there. Atlanta makes a ton of sense. If you're looking
to get Trey Young moving off the ball to maximize the minutes he's not on
the court. I meant to just really soup up your offense when he is
on the court. They don't have cap space. It would have to be
via trade with Chicago. Would welcome. I'm sure if Facultine actually wanted to
leave. I do like the idea of the Spurs. They have been sort
of bandied about, though, as a popular destination for DeAndre Aten, who
it seems is very unhappy in Phoenix. There's just been reporting that's pointed towards
that, and statements from his agent that has pointed toward that since before the
end of their playoff push there was the whole Game seven drama with him and
head coach Monty Williams calling an internal decision when when DeAndre Ayton wasn't back in
the game. There's a lot of stuff there that you could dig into.
I think you can also sort of read between the lines on a lot of
the other stuff that's happened, or the way that Phoenix has carried itself even
dating back to last offseason, and David the four at the four point play
Roman Numerals four point play on Twitter did a great thread the other day about
sort of the signals that pointed to the Sun's keeping themselves flexible enough to acquire
a star down the line, and that factored into their decision not to extend
DeAndre aten and the belief, per Jake Fisher of Bleacher Report, is just
that also, the Suns do not view DeAndre Ayton or any centers worth thirty
plus million dollars per year, and that's you know, that's that's a questionable
stance to take with Eighten specifically, maybe you I could probably understand it more
where you feel like you're able to approximate his value for a fraction of the
cost. Maybe you're getting, you know, sixty to seventy five percent of
DeAndre Ayton for twenty percent to thirty percent of the cost if you're going shopping
on the free agency market. Or maybe you're just more comfortable going after someone
who's like fifty or sixty percent of the cost and you look at a miles
turn or something, maybe you're just more comfortable paying that. Dealing Eighten gets
really complicated because he will Let's just assume he gets a max as an inbound
salary. He is going to count as that thirty point five million dollars figure
for the Suns to use him as a trade chip, though the base compensation
base share compensation rule essentially means that he's gonna be worth about fifteen point twenty
five million in outgoing salary, and so for Phoenix that does not give them
a ton of wiggle room to take back a ton of money in a trade
without also expanding the move or involving a third expanding the move to include more
players, or involving a third team that's going to be able to take back
money, or you could just straight up deal with the team that has cap
space, which is why your why the Spurs would be popular because they could
have the most cap space in the league, so that would be something to
watch. I don't the DeAndre eight and stuff. Even though he's a restricted
free agent meeting Phoenix has the ability to match any contract off he gets.
It fascinates me more than whatever's happening with Zach Ravine. I don't know what
I would bet on with Zach l and I bet on him being in Chicago
next season. With eighton, I'm sort of fifty fifty. I want to
be bold and say he won't be on the Suns, But just even looking
at the restricted free agency landscape and the teams with cap space, there's Detroit
and San Antonio feel like they could be aggressive and going after him unless you're
working out a sign and trade, though Phoenix has to match like they're obligated
to Max. You can try and move him later if you're not having signed
in trade discussions. And it's so the window to move eight And just feels
so narrow that it's tough for me to just outright predicted that he won't be
in Phoenix next season. Certainly a situation to monitor though. That's all out
of the way though, so let's get into some NBA Draft talk very quickly.
Please please, pretty please, from the bottom of my heart, remember
rate review and subscribe to this podcast where you were getting your podcast and this
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Is That is done, This long winded intro is over. Let's go
into the NBA Draft some of the biggest questions. It's we're gonna have Spinella.
We'll have a two part conversation. This is the first part part of
it, and I hope you enjoy it. Spins. Welcome back to the
Hardwood Knox Podcast, an annual tradition unlike any other, that you are kind
enough to indulge where I have you on to just extract as much NBA draft
information out of your brain as humanly possible. We're doing this probably a little
bit earlier than we normally would because you have penning nuptials. Congratulations to you.
We love, We absolutely love to see it. I appreciate you coming
on though. As always the biggest most important question I have for you though,
how are you doing? Oh Dan? Always good to be here,
man. The hardwood knocks are always a friendly, friendly confines for me.
Love being here, Love chatting with you about the NBA. Yes, our
annual tradition going over the draft and get a little bit sooner than we typically
do, because I'm taking about a two week hiatus right before the draft.
What timing could be better but getting married, heading out, setting sale and
putting my phone, my Twitter, my laptop, all of the film stuff
on hold for a couple of weeks, which is very challenging for me to
do. Just I love doing draft work and this is a busy and fun
time of year. But happy wife, happy life. So I'm going to
start practicing that early and make sure that we have a great time with our
wedding on our honeymoon. But let's get down to business today and talk NBA
draft stuff because this is actually turning into a super fascinating draft cycle. Well,
first, assuming everyone listened to the intro, Spins is a sicko with
the amount of work that he put into this, just between coaching a basketball
tea and then all the content he puts out. It's psychotic, and I
hope you actually do put your phone, Twitter, everything away for a couple
of weeks. You deserve it. And also speaking as someone who did not
do that after they try to take some time off from their honeymoon, your
significant other will dramatically appreciate it. When you do so, you will hut
some friendly advice that you didn't ask for. But no one everyone deserves to
unplug you, especially though I would, I would argue it's it's needed.
That being said, please let me please please let me now like force you
to return to the grind by asking you about the draft. We have to
start. I think just with the big three chet Chet Home Grin, Pablo
Benkaro, and Jabari Smith, what is like I've seen them, I thought
leading in that there would like we get to a consensus for the number one
pick and maybe we will be as more information trickles out. But I've seen
everyone from Paulo to chet to Jabari mocked at number one, and so how
do you sort of delineate between these three right now? So there are two
ways to look at that. One is with the buzz that's creating around the
NBA and where things are trending from a consensus, a mainstream standpoint, that
seems to be going towards Jabari Smith out of Auburn a little bit more because
he has a great deal of offensive upside. You very rarely see guys who
are six ten or six eleven that shoot the ball as purely and as cleanly
as he can, both in spot ups, picking pops on the move and
screening actions. He's a really good isolation scorer in at that size, you
know, the turnaround jumper, the wonderable pull ups in the mid range,
like he just shoots over the top of anybody defending him. He's essentially a
really big shooting wing and has a little bit of fluidity to him. I'm
not the biggest Jabari Smith fan, and I know we'll get into that.
I actually have him fourth on my overall board, so there's some lack of
harmony going on between what I'm seeing and what a lot of other exactives and
teams and kind of the consensus experts out there are feeling their way through,
but Jabari seems to be inching slightly above everybody else. I think chet Holmgren
is the one guy who's a lot to go top two. Still a chance
that he goes number one overall to Orlando, but just with his combination of
length, perimeter skills, defensive impact, he's going to be really valued for
the Oklahoma City franchise if he's available at two. And then Paolo Bancaro,
who's my number one prospect, A really big fan of his polished offensive Arsenal,
think that he comes in makes an immediate impact because he's ready to shoulder
a pretty strong offensive load, but not as poor of a defender as some
outlets may either lead you to believe or just have bought into. So I
actually don't think Paulo's defense is anything to worry about, and because of that,
I just feel really really comfortable with the polished offensive Arsenal and saying that
he should be the top guy in this class. I'm in love Apollo and
I I think probably because I've consumed so much box in one content, maybe
you just brainwash me too. I love him as well. I'm going to
ask you how you would order them out, But I feel like we need
to get when you're looking at how the teams might draft, to the root
of how like their impacts might scale out next season, who among the three
is ready to have the most immediate impact on their team. I think polo
scoring guys who are physically ready coming to the NBA and are just ready to
go. Jabari is probably a little bit more role dependent on guards that are
going to be able to get him the ball. And the biggest reason for
that is because he's not a self creator that gets to the rim. He
doesn't have a very good handle. There's something mechanically a little bit different about
him. He's reliant on guys being able to create open shots for him.
Now, he can make tough ones off one dribbles or isolations around the elbow
area, but his best usage is going to be more of a drive and
kick guy, where he's standing there and knocking down open shots created by others.
Chet physically, you just you never know how those guys really you know
fair at their size and skinniness coming in year one in the league. So
I don't think it's a long term concern that would prevent me from drafting Homegren.
But I also think that what we saw this year with Evan Mobley was
the perfect team and organization to blanket him while his body needs that time to
develop. Jared Allen having another rim protector in Cleveland helped Mobley make that transition.
I think that against situation dependent, Chet might have that if he goes
in any of those teams in the top three, but if it's Oklahoma City,
which seems to be the most likely outcome at this point, that's I
don't know if they'll have that. So by process of elimination, I'm going
Palo for immediate impact fast. And I think this is actually an important part
of discussion that might not get talked about enough. And we had this conversation
last year which right didn't draft again. Bring it up again where we're both
kind of best player available overfit, especially when you're this high in the draft.
So I look at and I go, well, who do we think
among these three five years, seven years down the line is going to be
the best player has the highest ceiling, and you in the outline said that
it was super tough for you to pick. But who would you lean towards
if if I forced you to choose, which obviously I am. Yeah,
I lean towards Chet just because I think his defensive impact is enormous and I
know the constraints of the offense that he played in in Gonzaga that he most
likely has more to his game than he was able to show in the system
that he played in in college. You know, Auburn and Duke both really
built their offenses around their top guys, So the farthest away from being able
to demonstrate what an ideal offensive version of him is would be chet homeground.
So because of that, I think slightly higher upside, but he probably of
the three has the most clear physical limitations, So you know that's it becomes
a risk reward thing. And excuse me, And look, every franchise has
some that decision for themselves. I think best player available is always the way
to go in the draft. But when you're convinced that two or three guys
are neck and neck and in that same tier, it's less about fit for
the top guys in the draft and more about what's the ideal way you want
to build your organization, what do you want to build around. Is it
having that one offensive cornerstone, then it's probably Palo. Is it the defensive
cornerstone, Then it's probably Chet. Is it the high upside guy who also
is an incredibly valuable role player because he's an elite three point shooter and has
some switchable defense, Then it's Jabari. So that's really the risk reward or
the pros and cons that teams are sifting through at this point, as opposed
to trying to figure out who's really the best player amongst them. I think
it's pretty neck and neck for a lot of teams. And when you hear
Fit in that conversation, it's not fit with the roster that they have,
it's fit with the roster they want to build. I do think what is
interesting this does skew heavily towards well, this is the roster they have.
You look at two of these teams in the top three, Orlando and Houston.
They're are already I wouldn't call any of them foundational bigs. But Orlando
has Wendel Carter junior, Jonathan Isaac. Houston has Alparen, Shane Goon?
Can these can all can all of these three bigs that are coming in the
draft? Can they operate alongside another big? Or even looking at the rosters
that they're perspectively going onto, now, is there anything that could be prohibitive
because they're It doesn't matter, like if you're bringing someone into a situation in
let's just say Orlando and you can't really play alongside Wendel Carter Junior, but
you paid him and he's good, So how are you're not going to play
him? Then you have to stagger to make it effective? Can all of
these guys since it does seem at least theoretically up in the air that all
three of these players can also operate alongside what would be another big and I
want to call it a center or power forward, but just another big and
I appreciate you not calling it that. Yeah, they definitely can, Yeah,
all three of them in different ways. Right, So I think the
hardest combination to find would be putting Jabari Smith with a non rim protecting vic.
Okay, but you can still make make it work if you're offensively potent
enough that you're just outscoring teams on the other end, so I think every
guy can fit in with another big man. I would say that Jabari and
Palo probably have to. Chet is the only one in long term that I
would say I'd be okay with this guy playing the five, but year one
he's not physically ready for that role. So I think all of them project
more as a four, and their immediate impact and how the game evolves over
the next decade, how their skill continues to move out, or in Chet's
case, how he physically develops, is going to dictate whether they play the
four or the five, and really what types of guys are best with them.
That's interesting on polo, and I know that John Hollinger is called it
spaceball, where it's these bigger players who can play like smalls, so you're
not playing small ball and you can kind of throw, you know, the
positional size out the window. But I look at him and that's that's interesting
that you can there him afore long term and you know more about more like
a needs a co big man almost long term to where you're not going to
have him. Is the only big that's just interesting to me sure, and
I think that that's probably one of the reasons he's most frequently mocked at three
in a lot of mainstream bars right now is because they're seeing the need to
have the right guy next to him. What I think is those guys are
easy to get in the NBA rim protectors who can stand in the dunker spot
or play pick and roll and just slam it down and provide value. I
think that's an easy acquisition to make. And if that enhances Paolo bank Era,
then why would you steer away from taking him with the top overall pick.
So how do you? I think we all know by now, and
anyone who watched Box D once mocked Draft three point zero knows too, But
how do you have them mocked? Right now? I have for what I
would do Paolo one to Orlando, Chet two to Oklahoma City, and again
that's the two best players in the draft in my opinion, and Chet being
that one guy that I really love the fit in Oklahoma City. And then
I would have Jabari three to Houston. And it does seem like though that
a lot of people believe Jabari is going to be the actual player that goes
number one to Orland. Yeah they do, and then Chet two and that
would leave Powow for three, which you get great fits for Houston either with
Jabari, really with any of them. Yeah, I think Houston's in the
driver's seat here and feeling comfortable taken whoever falls to three. But I think
that if Orlando ends up taking Jabari, then both Oklahoma City and Houston wind
up with fantastic fits for their organization. I couldn't be an MBA executive because
if I was in Houston, are almost welcome the opportunity to be at three.
So I don't have to make the choice. It was made for me.
Is there. Let's just say Orlando really convinces people that aren't decided or
that they could take anywhere, or maybe that they're in love with Chet.
He seems like the guy that almost needs to go to Oklahoma City or Oklahoma
City like needs him. Would you consider giving up something small if you're okay
see to go from two to one? Or does it need to actually?
Would it have to be something bigger? If you're like the thing I'm just
thinking about it. If you're Orlando and you watch you if you don't,
it doesn't seem like they would take Chet. It just doesn't seem that way.
And if you're not going to take way, would you just take ken
Rick Williams, Or would okay see give you like one of their lower level
first just to jump that one spot to ensure that you get Chet just because
you're so close, you're so right there, or that sort of just a
non starter. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think they
absolutely have to consider it, and if they are dead set on getting Chet
home, go and make the phone call, figure out what it costs to
move up to number one. I think the only fear of Orlando taking Chet,
and the reason he's still somewhat in play at number one is because of
the relationship with him and Jalen Sucks two guys that have played together in the
past. And you know, if they really believe Jalen's the guy to build
around in the future, Chet can come in and anchor their defense. He
fits their organizational mo which has always been about length. He's the longest guy
of these top three. So there's a lot of reason to rationalize the fit
for Chet in Orlando. But I don't know if right now the rumor mill
is spinning fast enough to try to say that Oklahoma City has to make an
offer to get up to number one in order to make sure they get yet
Orlando should absolutely make it so that they do, though I don't no doubt.
Movie sort of on to the rest of the lottery topics. I think
we have to begin with Jay and Ivy, who has been build except by
you as the clear number four guy in this draft, and so I guess,
can I get your general thoughts on Jay and I it's even no brainer
pick at number four, even like, even if we're throwing away the context
of the team that's currently sitting there, which I don't know if we can
do, because it's not just because yes not Sacramento doesn't have a great fit
for Ivy, which they don't like. There are some concerns about him and
Daron Fox playing side by side in the half court. It's that I'm I
am done trying to predict what the Sacramento Kings are going to do as an
organization. You hear rumors out there that they're going to try to go all
in and win. Now, their general manager has not received an extension to
date. He's on a lame duck contract, which makes it really hard to
make the patient pick here, particularly if your owner knows that they're going to
be teams calling up. What I believe is that Jade and Ivy is actually
a top three prospect in this class. Unbelievable athlete, like tier one type
of guard Derek Rose meets John Moranth type of hops and bursts and athleticism,
particularly in the open court. But he can go from zero to sixty and
just go right around guys. And it's so impressive that he can handle the
ball at that level and be able to score shiftedly or powerfully in traffic.
Developed a lot as a three point shooter over the last year. At major
concerns about Ivy as a pick and roll playmaker, as a scorer in the
mid range, those were the two kind of areas that were knocks on him
coming into this draft cycle. I think the passing is actually pretty solid.
When you surround him with shooters and playing the spread, pick and roll and
the mid range stuff, you know, it doesn't look good, but it's
decently effective. So I'm not overall worried about the concerns never come into fruition,
and because he's such a top tier athlete at a guard position that's incredibly
important. I really value what he brings to the table. Now can Sacramento
be patient enough to try to take a guy like him. I don't know,
but if he's available at four, he's such a clear cut kind of
prospect above everybody else that would be available, that they're going to get calls
about moving up to get Jade and Ivy. And it's just a question of
if the Kings think the offer is right and have a package of a veteran
to really entice them to try to win more now, which I think is
a mistake, but it's the King's baby. Let's fire it up. Yeah,
there is. And look just what we know about the trade landscape right
now, it doesn't seem like there's a player who's available that would make sense
to trade. There's talk that the Blazers would give up number seven for Jeremy
Grant, which is just Jeremy Grant is really good. That is just bonkers
to me, and we'll get into that in a second. But the Kings,
I can't tell if they were that in love with the bonus. That
was the most bizarre trade. It felt so random they if they thought that
they needed to make a choice though, between Haliburton and Fox, there's no
way you look at Ivy and Fox then as a pairing that works, And
so I'm I'm with you that you should just take if he's on the board
and he is the best player available, just take him. But I could
see the Kings either just moving for the sake of moving or drafting for fit,
and I would argue the former is probably less detrimental, Like maybe you
could move down if you want someone else in this draft. And I'm sure
there are teams that want to. You know, I'd look at the teams
that probably wanted to hop in the top four and couldn't like the Pacers,
like all the Blazers aren't gonna want Jaden Ivy, but like there are teams
that should want to, even the Pistons falling out of the top four.
So unless you're gonna be committed to a more gradual process, I really think
that Sacramento needs to, like, non detrimentally do something with this pick.
I would say it's moved down because I don't like any of the actual players
that they could probably get for. You know, there's even when you're talking
about, oh, it's like if Bradley Beale wants to like, is Bradley
Beal, Like, yeah, he helps the Kings, but with the bonus
and Beal and five, like, what is that absolutely doing for you?
So it feels like the draft almost begins at number four in the sense that
anything can just happen at that spot. Yeah. And one of the reasons
for that is because the top three teams there in Orlando, Oklahoma City,
in Houston don't need guards, right, it becomes a lot harder to think
about them taking Jade and Ivy in the top three because they feel so set
both athletically and positionally at the same overlaps with Ivy, so that the draft,
you know, those top three, the order that they fall in is
going to be important. But the real madness is going to start at four
with trade up possibilities to the Kings just bite the bullet and take him.
Are they going to be patient enough and go with the mystery man in this
class Shade and Shark, who's kind of rumored to be around that top five
area. So a lot of different avenues. As I say, if you're
trying to predict the Sacramento Kings and what they're doing, you're an idiot because
you're never going to be able to figure out exactly what's going on. In
the organization, and I'm just that's going to be a really fun one to
sit back and watch. Speaking as someone who is a little bit higher on
the Fox of Bonus fifth than I was at first blush. I don't even
think the Kings know what they're doing, so let's just let's just be fair
there. So I invented a prospect apparently when doing the outline for you,
and called them Jaden Sharp when I was making this at four in the morning,
Shaden Sharp. What makes him such a polarizing prospect aside from the is
it anything functionally about his game or is this just oh, he wasn't in
college last year. There's a lot of the mystery aspect at play. And
it's not just that he didn't play in college. It's that he was such
a late riser of recruiting boards in high school, kind of more of a
fringe top one hundred guy going into his junior year in high school, started
to play really well headed growth spurt athletically turned into a freak, and now
all of a sudden he's going up up up recruiting boards, finds up to
Kentucky, you know, comes in a year early and tries to make all
of this stuff work to prepare for whatever his thought process was. But Sharp
has been polarizing from the college basketball community that fans of college basketball really don't
love the thought of a top tier prospect coming in practicing or working out with
the team and not having any intention of benefiting the program by ever stepping foot
on the floor and playing that they feel like Sharp used Kentucky to essentially be
a elite training ground for six months to get him ready for the draft and
for MBA. So polarizing in a lot of senses in that regard. Polarizing
as a prospect because he's such a fast riser and wasn't the clear cut number
one guy you all the way through his high school career, and then just
the mystery of he hasn't played against legitimate competition in an over a year.
So how do we project guys who go from high school to the pros anymore?
That's not something that general managers have been used to doing, and let
alone something they had success with when they were used to doing it, you
know, fifteen years ago, when guys could just declare right out of high
school. So he's going to be polarizing. I love Sharp, because the
consequences of missing don't fall back on me at all. Right, I'm not
I don't have to live with not getting my next contract. Right, Shaden
Sharp doesn't turn in anything, So it's a lot easier for me to say,
hey, let's just take the swing. But legitimate superstar upside, athleticism,
physicality, six to eleven wingspan, ability to shoot in decent playmaking off
the bounce. He's just he's flashed so many great things that at five,
after the top four guys are off the board, he's the guy that has
the clearest upside. There's just there's no doubt about that. It's just when
are you willing to take that risk as an organization? Do you? One?
I think that's probably the ceiling on where if he'll be picked number five
and two, could you see this just given the concerns and the lack of
sample size over the past year plus two, every long it's been, does
he have like sort of the everyone hasn't mocked like in the four or five,
six, seven range now or whatever. Does he have the potential to
maybe even fall last minute? I think so. I mean, I think
anybody that's a wild card has the ability to fall if you feel really comfortable
with the pieces that are also in that range in the draft. I would
be shocked if he falls past Indiana, just because that's a franchise starving for
a star, and they have the patients in the window and the position will
fit to be able to invest in him. I just I can't see him
getting past Indiana. But I think he's in play as high as four.
It's Sacramento. Yeah, I don't wish Sacramento upon him. If he's a
project, I hope that he I'm just I feel bad that I'm saying it's
about King's fans, but I would prefer to see him in Detroit, India
and literally anywhere else. At this point, who is the best? Are
just going just looping archetypes into here? Who's the better long term investment?
When you're sort of in this area of the lottery between let's say five and
nine, whatever it is between Benedict Matherin and Kegan Murray, that's an interesting
one. I think it's going to depend on what you ask them to do.
So I really like Kegan Murray, and analytical models love him because he
has very few weak spots in his game. But if you are drafting him
with the intention of turning him into a top two scorer on your franchise.
I think that's a mistake. I think he's the perfect third cog. Plays
a little bit like a Danny Granger ish, Pascal Siakamish Tobias Harris ish type
of guy, and I think that they're best when you have a primary who's
a guard around them, and another guy who can go create his own shot.
Not really, he's more of a four, kind of similar to what
Paulo was. I think Kegan eventually will be able to play some smaller five.
I think he's skilled enough to play some three, but really it's just
going to depend about what you ask Kegan Murray to do. Benedict Mather and
I think has a little bit higher of an upside at the next level because
he's a little bit more live wire of an athlete, and I love his
ability to shoot, not just catch and shoot on the perimeter, but as
a movement guy. You know, if you're a team that already has an
established star or two, but they need space in order to operate, they're
a great athlete and they just do whatever the explanation is. I think Matherin
fits in a little bit better and has higher upside there. I think Murray
is a better long term investment for a team that you know, probably has
the need for versatility in the front court because they don't have that already but
established stars or ten poles of the organization at the big and the guards spots
already taken care of. And you said your deem Keegan Murray would probably be
the safer pick. Yeah, yeah, definitely, definitely a little bit more
of a safer pick. It's not necessarily that Matherin has higher upside, but
I think if both guys hit, Matherin's role is more valuable. Just I
love having movement shooters due to the gravity that they create and make everybody else
better. Looking at AJ Griffin, should teams actually be concerned about the dearth
of things he does outside of shot making. But it's difficult shot making,
is it not? So that's like if you have to have I don't want
to call it a singular skill, but if you have to be like limited
dimensionally, like that's the way to almost be or are there just and I
definitely wouldn't know, but like, are there any undersould bright spots of his
game that aren't being talked up enough leading into the draft. So to that
last question, No, oh man, Yeah, I'm not an AJ Griffin
guy. And it's a shame. You know. I did a podcast with
San Vassini a couple of days ago and talked a lot about AJ Griffin,
and the thing that I keep circling back is I absolutely loved him when he
was in high school, like thought he was going to be the next superstar
freak athlete, really really high flying player, skilled, shot the crap out
of the ball, does everything well. He doesn't look like the same guy
that I saw two years ago. When three years ago when he was playing
in New York City, it's concerning. He does not defend at a very
high level. Now he has the raw physical tools to eventually be able to
get there, but he's so far behind everybody else in this draft class that
it is a legitimate red flag teams have to be aware of. Dan.
I'm going to throw a coaching isn't match you in a question for you?
Do you know what the best ability is for a basketball coach? Oh?
God, No, the best ability is availability. So when we talk about
the dearth of all of the things that Griffin might not have in his game
right now or the upside to be able to add them. He's the one
guy with injury concerns, with just a track record of not always being there,
and part of that is bad luck and just how things have struck his
body over the last few years. The other part of that is Coach k
would remove him from the lineup at the end of games that do because he
couldn't trust him to be on the floor in those moments. And if you're
not a guy that's going to be available when the game is on the line,
that puts a massive ceiling to me on where I'd be willing to draft
you. It's one thing if it's positional and it's matchups right, like a
big guy who has to be taken off the floor because the other team goes
five guards. It's another thing when you're supposed to be this multi positional athlete
who's six six and chiseled and you just can't find a place on the floor
to guard. That's really concerning to me is the is the shop making him
that prolific that because I hear that, I listen to what you've said on
the box. In one YouTube channel, I've read stuff on him, and
then I'm kind of just like when you look at some of these mock drafts,
I'm almost like, Okay, well, then why not just go if
you're a team in this position, why AJ Griffin over Dyson Daniels, for
example, Like, why is that something that exists? If he seemed if
there are that many red flags attached to his game. Yeah, I don't
think it will end up being that way on draft night. I think this
is again I mentioned earlier, a lot of us who are sitting on the
outside looking in. We don't have the fear of repercussions. So putting a
J. Griffin fifth on a big board is so easy to do because you
see the tantilizing upside. You just it's easy to sit back and say,
hey, I'm gonna bet on that guy because why the hell not? And
if he hits, he hits really big. But it doesn't work that way
for NBA teams. I think that there are three really safe bets outside of
the top five Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels, Benedict Mathern. That takes you
down to eight. After they're like a guy like Jalen Duren from Memphis,
a really talented, high upside big the right team fit is going to be
important for who it's him, but really really high ceiling for a big guy.
And then now we're talking back half of the lottery, where these are
teams that are drafting, that are ambitious about making the playoffs and doing so
a little bit earlier in there, you know, in the window of when
they make this selection. So Griffin to me has a ten to eighteen type
of range right now, and it's probably going to be a little bit on
the earlier side because the upside is there and he's a fantastic catch and shoot
prospect. But I worry about a lot of things with him. I will
say I'm rooting for him to go earlier than not because I would like I
would like the Knicks to take Dyson Daniels. If I'm trying to be realistic
of who could be available, I don't know if he's still going to be
there. Well, Dyson Daniel still be available at number eleven, Yeah,
would I pay you to say? Yeah? I wish I could. And
the biggest reason I'll say no is because I think if he is around at
ten, the Wizards snatch him up. I think he's a great fit in
Washington next to Bradley Beale. But he was a big winner out of the
NBA Draft combine last week in Chicago and private workouts the way that his shot
has continued to progress and looks really good. I think he's closer to fifth
than he is to eleventh. Well, that's a little bit upsetting, not
unexpected. Do you think that his jumper is going to come along in the
NBA? Yeah, I would, I would not bet against it. I
think that he's shown decent growth in that area. I don't love the dribble
pull up stuff, but I think from a catch and shoot standpoint, he's
going to at least be really solid where he projects as an incredibly high end
role player, great defender, smart basketball IQ, long, lean finisher,
amazing floater, which is important for guards to have in their bag these days.
The one thing that's missing to me is the shooting reliability, particularly off
the bounce, and if that ever comes, like he's just he's a really
really dependable guy. To sort of wrap up our lottery talk, what do
you make? And I've seen this attached to mostly Mark Williams and Jaylen Durn
about why take a center, a rim running, you know, shot blocking
center, someone or even if that big can do more, but primarily their
role is going to scale to that. Why draft that type of player in
the lottery or hire at all when you can just go out on the free
agency market and probably approximate a more established level of that When you're not talking
about a rookie for maybe even much cheaper than what their rookie scale is going
to pay them. What do you like sort of makeup where do you land
on that philosophy? I used to really lean heavily into the idea that if
it's not an elite, elite big like, don't take them till at early
it's the later part of the first round. I've kind of changed my tune
over that, particularly in this draft cycle. Maybe that's changing the rules to
fit the way you want the game to be played right now. But whatever,
I can do what I want. I guess you know, I like
Mark Williams and Jalen durn as lottery prospects and value is really more depends on
the rest of the draft class and the importance to the drafting team than it
is just looking at the position and saying we need to avoid that, Like,
if you think both guys are starter caliber players and talents, then it
becomes a point in the draft when getting a starting caliber player regardless of the
position, is better than swinging anywhere else. And I think that in this
draft class there's a little bit of a drop off when you get outside the
top fourteen or fifteen, so that would move them into lottery level talents regardless
of the positionality of things. And at some point it just becomes ridiculous to
pass on pretty safe bets, even if you say, well, that's not
the ideal way that we would want to build our roster because we can go
bargain hunting for a similar type of guy elsewhere. Like I just I think
there is enough upside, especially for Duran because I view him as being a
little bit switchable, that it's worth making the swing on I have Duran is
I think I ainth on my board right now and Mark Williams eleventh or twelve.
So you know, two guys that are are guys I would project to
be starters in the NBA. And I have a really hard time saying,
just because of my philosophy, I'm not touching them until the later part of
the first round because I'm against that position and they don't shoot it well enough
to deserve that versatile, functional type of roles. So I'm starting to change
my tune. I think I've always sort of fallen on that side of the
fence where you found yourself now and I look at it through this way,
and I hate talking about player salaries in this context, but it is part
of the team building process. I'm not concerned about doing it when they're on
their rookie scales, especially when you're talking about let's say they take them a
tenth that's going to be about a four year, twenty million dollars deal that
it could be thought like like that's not that much money. It's do you
want to pay that type of player on his second deal for what he would
cost. That's where I think it becomes were realistic question, and it's why
I think I've seen they've been jokes throughout NIXT Twitter is like Jericho Sims is
why you don't pay Mitchell Robinson big time money in free agency? That might
be an extreme, but it's also right because you've given that player. Mitchell
Robinson was a bargain in itself. When you look at where he was drafting
his contract. But if that player can develop. In Mitchell Robinson's case,
where I've seen people compare him like the Rudy Gobert comparisons aro out the window.
But I think the most egregious examples I've seen were the I think you
and I actually even talked about this, were the Robert Williams the third stuff
where it's like, no, Robert Williams is more dynamic when it comes to
guarding on the perimeter and passing, among other things. But those are the
two biggest factors that stand out to me, and Mitchell Robinson really failing to
develop any type of feel on the offensive end, that is an indictment against
his next contract. If you're a team and so looking at the lottery specifically,
I wouldn't hesitate, especially if you think they're the best player, even
if you're drafting for fit. If you like getting a center under lock and
key for that many year years at that price with some maybe higher upside,
or there's there's depth to develop him, that still seems like a no brainer
to me. And I feel like we've veered too far into the realm of
oh centers or big men or the new running backs, and it's just it's
not like that for me. Now, I totally agree. I think you
said that pretty elegantly. You know, Durhan, he's eighteen years old.
He's the youngest guy in this draft class of O my god, yeah,
like he's he's super super young. So he'll be twenty two years old when
his rookie contract expires. So what's the downside of given him another four years?
Yeah, you're gonna have to pay a little bit for it, but
monumental upside for what he's able to do at his young age. And then
Mark Williams twenty years old, really polished and able to come in and have
an impact. Typically, the argument against the four year rookie contracts cycle for
bigs is that in order to be a starting caliber rim protector, you need
like two years of NBA experience. You have to learn every single angle and
call and be incre dependable as a communicator. Williams is much farther along in
that trajectory than most young big men, which is why I say worth a
lottery pick and able to come in and impact a franchise at least in some
role from day one. Mark Williams he shot like seventy three percent from the
field this year. He led the NCAA and Dunk's fantastic rim protector and covered
up a lot of mistakes that guys like Aj Griffin made on the perimeter for
Duke. So I think an invaluable piece in a lot of ways. And
again, if we're talking a starter or a really high end role player at
the end of the lottery, that's important. Like out of every draft class,
there's usually no more than twenty to twenty three guys that end up sticking
in the NBA long term on second deals and being valued members of a rotation.
So if you believe that he's going to be that, take him in
the top twenty. Like there's there's very little argument that I think Mark that
there are a few people out there that would think Mark Williams won't turn into
that type of guy in the NBA. And again just the fact that doesn't
really cost that much, Like you're not even paying them Javal McGee money.
But at this point, so and you have I guess you have Durant over
Williams at this point on your big board, correct, I do just leaning
a little bit more towards the upside. I think it would be easy to
put Williams ahead because of what we see now, but Duran's natural tools,
combined with how quickly he learned through his freshman season at Memphis, give me
a little bit more hope that he can get to a higher ceiling. Spins.
This was fantastic, as always, you are of that and endless bottom
was that of information and insight. I appreciate it. Are you able to
tell our listeners where they can find you and all the spectacular work that you
do. I am willing and able, Dan, Thank you again for having
me on here, but follow me on Twitter at the Box end One Underscore.
Our YouTube channel, Adam Spinella has NBA draft scatter reports coming out pretty
much every day, and then we have a substack page that writes about those
prospects in longer form as well as some draft philosophy pieces. That's the Box
and one dot Substack dot com. All of our work comes and one of
those three places, So if you hit any of those up, you're guaranteed
to find something that you might disagree with. The link to the YouTube channels
into description. I highly recommend anyone who's going into crash course mode for the
draft, like myself needs to check it out. It's amazing. Spins,
thank you so much, congratulations in advance on the wedding, and like we
said at the top, I hope that you're able to enjoy it and end
unplug because you worked really hard. And I know myself and everyone who listens
to this around these parts super appreciate all the hard work that you do.
Appreciate it.