Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step, hit stays. Here's your hosts, Jesse Suvier and Victor Nuno
Fantasy Hockey Live back once again to talk fantasy hockey. Is me Jesse severa
Fan Tracks, and him Victor Nuno of Dabber Prospects. Victor, how you
doing? I'm doing great, Jesse? Yeah, I definitely excited to be
talking about the Maple Leaves. Such a plethora of great offensive options and yeah,
no shortage of opinions and information written about this club, so looking forward
to that. How are you doing? I'm doing okay, man, I
feel like I'm a distant Leafs watcher. I guess I should stop making fun
of the media storm that surrounds the Leaves every single goal time we talk about
the least people are probably sick of that, but it is true this is
a team like no other in terms of the narratives around and in terms of
probably what everybody's already heard about these guys. Nonetheless, a lot of fascinated
stories for fantasy. Yeah, and we're getting toward the end of this thing,
Victor, We've we have conquered like close to two thirds of the NHL
now for our team previews, oh more than that. After this recording,
we only have one, yeah, like five more, six more. So
we're getting to the end. It feels good we've had we started way back
in May where things were a lot unknown. It's always a little bit more
fun you get closer to the season two because a lot of the free agent
signings have happened, you know, and for those of you who maybe are
with us for the first time or for god, we do go back and
do a catch up episode where we talk about some of those players who have
moved the ketchup and Mustard, as I like to call it, Jesse,
I like that we can all at that. I think that's a good title
for it. Because we start these previous so early, because it's so hard
to get through thirty two teams that we do it before free agency, in
the draft and all that stuff. We're talking about some teams, so we
have to catch them up. But the leaves should be pretty baked at this
point, and Peter Harley is going to be here to talk about them today.
But before we get there, Victor a couple of things where people ought
to know, and one of them is they're getting ready for the season.
People may be thinking, I need to start drafting my dynasty leagues. I
need to look at my prospect ranks from my rookie drafts. And one place
to get good information on that is on our Patreon and tell people what might
be available to them. There. Yeah, lots of goodness there. We
have our tiered Dynasty that's in the second season. You can be a part
of that as you can get on the wait list of I'm not sure there's
any spots right now, but there might be throughout the season. You can
look at our prospect ranks. You can look at twenty twenty three ranks.
We have the ADP project, which we've been doing and feel free to submit
more of your rookie draft to us. We will take them, coolate them
and provide that information. We're gonna have some good stuff there. And we
have Patron casts. We just did one of those. We have another one
coming up next month obviously, and yeah, just lots of great stuff like
the show notes, the Patron Priority channel. You can check it all out
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and you can get one by dming us on X at. Fan Hockey
Life is me at Victor Newno. Twelve is victor Or. You can email
us Fantasy Hockey Life at gmail dot com if you refuse to do the X
thing Victor. That's going to get us started. But we need to go
talk to Peter Harlane to get a hold on these maple leaks. Right after
this, we're very pleased to welcome today a lady who's going to tell us
about the Tampa Bay Lightning Deandralu of The Hockey News, SI dot com and
NHL dot com. DeAndre, how you doing today, Hey, guys,
I'm good how are you. I'm great, I'm great. We're great.
Ready to talk a little bit of Tampa Bay Lightning. Quite a team for
you to be following. How many years have you been reporting on Tampa just
out of curiosity? Since twenty eighteen? Pretty good time, Pretty good time
to do it. Yeah. No, I've seen them be the year that
everyone keeps talking about that. I don't think we'll ever let that year go
when they got swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets. So that was my first
year covering the team, and it's been a really fun road and I've seen
a lot of ups and down sounds and just the definition of resilience with these
guys. The core has somewhat remained the same through all of it. When
you look at guys like Sam Coast and Headman and all of them, like
they've been there this whole time, and the rotating pieces have changed, but
for the most part, it stayed the same. And it's been a really
fun ride. Yeah, it's arguably it's been about ten years of Peak Lightning,
Headman Stamkos Klorin kucherov. John Cooper all being there for this whole ten
years. The teams won two cups, lost two finals and made it to
two more conference finals, and this year was a first round out, which
is unusual except, like you say at the Columbus year, an excellent Toronto
team though is not a not an unfair way to go out. There were
a very good team and they lost all their three games at home and overtime.
That probably was not a lot of fun to report on. Tampa had
a top three most efficient power play, which was conveniently paired with the most
average opponent pims per game this year at twelve point three. Of course,
they also took the third most penalties per game, which minute wasn't always a
power play that they were getting. The Bolts have had to churn their support
players a lot, and they've gone on to other teams, some of them
really thrived, but it seems to be working. Is the Tampa Bay Lightning
still a Cup contender in this coming year? Diandra Oh, I think they're
absolutely a Cup contender, and I've seen some of my colleagues around the league
put them down there is they're not going to make it to the playoffs this
year. This is the year. It's the downfall of the Lightning, or
I've seen it all over and for the guys, I know they see that,
but they don't really pay too much attention to that. But for us,
we watch it, and I think to count them out this year especially
would be the biggest mistake. The year that just I hate to go back
to the Columbus year, but the year that they lost, they got swept,
and they came back right after that and won two Cups back to back.
Like the revenge tour continues. I think the biggest difference with this team
this year is they've had all off season, and as much as they did
not want to lose to Toronto, as somebody who was in the locker room
and I was covering the team and I was around them, I could see
the fatigue as the season went on. And I think it's just and they've
said it too, but it was a blessing in disguise to have a full
off season, meet with their trainers, take some time to just relax and
be with family. Especially during that COVID year it went, they really didn't
have an off season and they haven't in a while, so a well rested
Lightning team going into this season. I wouldn't underestimate them at all. And
when you look at the core and yeah, you look at the Stanley Cup
and the team that was there, and how many guys have left. I
think there's and I'm just throwing this number out, but I think it's nine
guys are gone now from that team. But they just they're retooling and they
keep plugging away and getting great players. And when you win the Cup and
you have a really competitive team, when you have a cap situation like what
Julian breeseball I had to deal with this offseason, players want still want to
come play for the Lightning and sometimes they'll take a cut to do that,
and so that has really worked out in their benefit until the cap increases.
That's something that they've had to rely on the area that they play in.
Their winning culture and just a really good relationship with the coaches and Julian Briceball
and the players and all of that. It's appealing to a lot of players.
So I think the season's gonna be good for them. Yeah, hard
to imagine it's going to be too bad. And we're going to start talking
about the forwards here, and of course we're going to start with Nikiya Kutrov.
What a stud he is. We thought he'd be somewhere around the six
or seventh past forward. He was actually number twelve, but still really good
and we expect that the future. He played eighty two games for the third
time in his career. Gone are those concerns from twenty twenty twenty one where
he missed the whole season. He had thirty goals eighty two assists for one
hundred and twelve points. That was the closest he's come to his MVP twenty
eighteen nineteen season, when we had a one hundred twenty eight points. The
shots are great. He actually gets a pretty decent number of hits and blocks
as well for a Ford, and the forty nine power play points is just
absurdly good. He's got four years left at nine and a half million for
those of us in cap leagues, still pretty decent value for what he's doing.
Defensively, he's really not great, but that's not why he's out there.
He's excellent offensively, powerplay even strength. All of his number underlying numbers
look really good there. His shooting percentage was actually a bit low this season
compared to his career average, with a few percentage points low, but his
power play points participation was a little high, so maybe that evens out and
he ends up doing similarly too before. So Deandrew, do you think Kutrov
maintains over that one hundred and ten point pace again next season? Oh?
Yeah? And he's so funny because since they lost to Toronto, he's been
skating like I think Julian Bresbass had five to six days a week since that
loss, So he's been on the ice trying to get his mind right and
get his body right and get ready. And he's been there almost every single
day since the playoffs, So I think he's ready to go. And I
look at different areas for somebody like Koutroff as well as far as like goal
scoring goes and what he had eighty three assists last year eighty two assists,
but as far as scoring goals go, that's somewhere that he can make up
this season. When you lose players like Ross Colton or Alex Klorn like that,
you have to make up for those goals somewhere, and the players know
that, and I'm sure Kutroff would be somebody that you can always bank on
to focus on that. He knows he needs to score a little bit more,
but yeah, that was his third career one hundred point season. I
would expect it to just go up from there, and especially knowing having a
full off season and knowing that they have to make up I don't want to
say for the slack, but obviously they took some significant losses here due to
the cap. So he knows he's got to step up as far as that
goes. And Koutrof is a He's his own breed of person. He's just
incredible. He's amazing to watch. I'm excited to see what he does this
season. Radon point ninety five points last year. It was a new career
high for the guy. Fifty one of those points were goals. That was
fifth and the NHL and ten more than his prior personal best. Now,
twenty one point seven percent shooting ran a little bit hot for him, but
his career rate is eighteen percent, so not crazy hot. He played with
Kucharov for years and when both are healthy, both are amazing. We'll get
to Brandon An in a few minutes, but that threesome played the third most
minutes together at even strength of any line in the NHL. There is a
heat map that I can get off the hockeyz website, where Red courses much
better offense, blewe is much worse offense. When Point is on the ice,
the middle of the ice looks like somebody stepped on a bunch of ketchup
packets. Basically, it's just redder than red. And that just represents the
fact that when he's not on the ice, tampus five on five offenses seven
percent below league average, and when he's on the ice, it's thirty six
percent above league average, especially in the middle. Boy he gets himself three
shots per game. He had exactly two penalties this year, one slashing penalty
and a fight with Mikey Esimont for some reason. That was all of his
pims last year, so he is not a highly penalized player. He's still
twenty seven seven more big year contracts ahead. I don't know what there is
to ask about this guy except over under ninety points next year. Yeah no,
And I love that his fight, his one fight was Mikey a Simon
because now McKay smont plays for the Lightning and their teammates, so that was
great. That was a lot of fun to talk about. As he scored
his fiftieth goal and only one of those, the fifty one was the empty
nighter. The rest the rest are all legit. So I think the thing
with Breadenpotant, and you can actually say this with most of the players on
the Lightning is they don't get a lot of limelight, they don't get a
lot of hype. They just put their head down, go to work and
do what they're supposed to do. So Brandon Point had the quietest fifty goal
season I think of any player that was on there. And he's such a
great leader, and I've watched him take more of a leadership role on the
team. I think he's going to be incredible. And last year was big
because he was coming off an injury in the Stanley Cup final against Colorado.
So who knows, honestly, what would have happened if he was on the
ice, especially when you were rereading those stats of what it's like when he's
up there, and you think the Stanley Cup finally got injured. So I
remember talking to him last summer and he was working really hard to rehab and
get back out there, and he had a great season. I look at
Brandon Point and Koutroff and Hagel, and those are the guys that when anyone
doubts the lightning, I just think about who's going to be up top,
and you're they're incredible. They're elite skaters. So same thing with Couch and
Braden Point. They're gonna have great seasons. And not only they. That's
not even getting around to Stephen stamp Coost yet on this team, and he's
been around so long he had a peak before the ten year run that I'm
talking about. He's just an annual point per game plus guy. Last year
it was thirty four goals fifty assists for eighty four points in eighty one games.
Also three shots also hit every game as well as avershamanis of nineteen oh
one, his most since two fifteen sixteen. Stephen stamp Coost turns thirty four
this season is in the final year of a contract on a team that has
been having to do cap gymnastics for a couple of years now to hold it
all together, so that's always a little bit scary. But stamp cost is
seventy fifth all time and scoring in the NHL, and another eighty point season
should land him to exactly sixtieth in the all time scoring ranks, absolute surefire
Hall of Famer. What explains this mid thirties longevity out of stamp Coast And
should we expect yet another patented Steven Stamkos season next year. Yeah. I
could say a lot of great things about Stamkos is he's such a great leader
on this team. But I know that he works really hard to stay healthy
and I was actually he was just saying a couple of months in the off
season that his goal is to play for five more years. If he can
stay healthy and do that, you know what to expect with Stamkos. He's
always consistent. He's also just he is in my opinion, he's the best
captain in the league. I watch how he interacts with his players, and
I think he's so much of the reason him and John Cooper, but he's
so much of the reason why the players can stay level headed and get to
where they're at and why they have a great season every single year is because
of guys like Steven stamkost because he'll pull them up. Get I don't know,
he's resilient. He's a resilient player, and I'm not worried about his
contract. I know that's in the works, and he's very he wants to
stay in Tampa. That's what he wants to do, and I know that
will be coming soon. We knew the Hegel extension. I knew it would
the Hagel extension and then the stam Coast. They're working those numbers out,
so I think now that Hagel's done, I would expect Stamkost is coming soon.
But yeah, everyone's been watching him for Stammer for a year, so
he's always going to be right there. And I'm excited to see how he
interacts with some of the new guys that are coming into this dynamic, because
when you win the Cup and you go through these experiences together, these players
are really bonded. They have really great relationship, and Stammer's that guy that
brings everybody in the loop. They just feed off of him and feed off
each other, and I think that's how he stays consistent every year. You
mentioned Brandon Hegel. It is Brandon Hegel's twenty fifth birthday the day we record
this, and I think he deserves two pieces of cake considering the accomplishments he's
had in his past year. Thirty goals, thirty four assists, for sixty
four points in eighty one games, with his first full year with the Lightning
manages just over two shots a game, something under a hit in three quarters
of a black nice peripheral stats. Honestly, I didn't know what to make
of it. In twenty twenty one twenty two, when Tampa traded to a
Radish Boris kachukin two first rounders for Hagel and two fourth rounders, he was
coming off like a partial season where he scored a lot with Chicago and twenty
two percent shooting playing with Patrick Kane, and it was kind of like,
is he really all that or is this a hot half season? But boy,
they put Hagel mostly with Point and Kucheroff and it wasn't exactly a depth
roll. He was six on the team in power play tim on ice And
now, like you said, the contract is done, they've doubled down.
He's got a max eight year, six point five million dollar year. At
maximum eight year, the most years he can get six point five million dollars
per starting after this coming season. An amazing commitment for a team that otherwise
is really trying to economize. Like, we say, what did the Bolts
see here? And are they right? Would you guess another sixty five ish
point season from Brandon Hegel? Oh? Yeah, I think it's only up
for Hagel, It's only up from here. But also, when you're playing
on a line with Brandon Point and Nikita Kucheroff, it did take a little
bit of an adjustment period. But when you're playing on a line with those
guys, like you're pretty much set up for success and you play at their
level. And that's what happened with him. And it's so funny because I
watched him when he came on the team and he's new in the locker room
and he's just a little bit uncomfortable, trying to find his way. And
now I watch him through this season and he's just he's done an incredible job
and they love him. He just meshed right in. Culture is really big
with the Lightning. He meshed right in right away. And I think again,
like the environment that these guys are playing in really sets them up for
success mentally and physically. But one thing about the Lightning that I will say
is they take these guys and everyone's what I don't get it but doesn't make
sense to a lot of people is are they going to be good? Nobody
knows. They really rely on the development of their players, and Hagel Is
he's one of those guys. He stepped up, did what he could,
and he actually went above and beyond to fit him with this team. It
paid off and he wants to stay here. And I loved hearing what he
said about why he wanted to stay with the Lightning and wants to win the
Cup. So he didn't get to do that with these guys. And it's
easy to forget because he's such a big part of this team now that he
wasn't there when they won the Stanley Cup. So he wants it and I
think especially with this contract, obviously, that's going to motivate him to have
a really big season. So look out for him too. Yeah, definitely.
And after those main guys, there's a bit of a drop off fantasy
wise. The Lightning are have some great top of the lineup fantasy players and
then there's a bit of a middle here that isn't maybe not exciting. So
I'm going to pose these guys as a pickum. So I have Anthony Sarelli,
Connor Sherry, and Nick Paul. Obviously we have Sherry come in is
a little bit new. Sarelli has been roughly a forty point guy for years
now, so I'm not really sure if that's going to change much. Nick
Paul has been more of like a thirty point guys, a little bit lower,
but he has had some top of the lineup relevance here and there.
And obviously we don't know what's going on necessarily with Sherry because he's new.
But in Washing he had some decent role here and there. He had a
fifty point pace a couple of seasons ago, and then he's been more like
in the thirties. So hard to say between those two. But between these
three, who are you taking in terms of a point pace? And can
any of them get over forty five. I think this upcoming season is a
big one for Nick Paul because when you look at goals scored for him,
he did when he came in at the trade deadline and they played Toronto and
Colorado and he did awesome. But this past year he did some great things,
but he just struggled with scoring goals, and so he knows that's something
that he has to work on. I would definitely expect him, especially losing
Kloren and Ross Colton, like he knows that he has to figure that out.
He's got to score, He's got to shoot the puck. He's going
to be shooting the puck a lot more because he can't. We can't have
another season where that's not happening. I would expect Nick Paul honestly to have
a pretty good season as far as that goes, because there was a lot
of pressure on him there at the end to score and and he did score
against Toronto. As far as Connor Shery goes, again, like you said,
it is up in the air, I will say like he played on
the same line as Ovechkin, which is pretty huge, and I know that's
what the Lightning really liked about him. He's going to be up there next
to stamp Kost. I think he's going to have a good year, but
it'll take an adjustment period, right Like any player that comes into a new
environment, it takes them a bit to get adjusted. So I don't know
if right off the bat, if that's really going to be if we're going
to see that success from Connor Shery. As far as Sarelli goes, he's
consistent. We know what to expect was Sarelli. I think if you're going
to go with the player, I would say Nick Paul would be the one
because it's crunched time on him. He's got that long term contract. He
didn't really score any goals there last year, and so he's going to be
shooting the puck more. And the more you shoot the puck, the more
it goes in. So let's go with the Nick Paul is the guy that
I think out of those three, I like it. It's nice to get
that opinion. Of course, Sherry is the bigger unknown, So if you
want to take a big wild swing, I think so Early, as you
pointed out, is the one we know the most about and it is probably
the least likely to pop off. Braley's a great player, but as far
as is goals and shooting, Nick paulis who I would go with. Connor
Sherry. I hope that he has a really good season. We just don't
know he's again, it's just an unknown as far as that goes, and
it's going to take him a little bit to get adjusted. Yeah for sure.
All right, Yeah, let's talk about the defense now. Michael Sergachev,
it seems like we are witnessing a bit of a change of the guard
here at the top d in Tampa. Headman still getting a smidge more power
play time on ice, but Sergachev has fifteen more points in just three more
games than Headman. Coming into this season, Jesse and I thought he'd be
on the twenty four to twenty eight best defenseman range, and he was actually
the eleventh best, so really took the reins there. Ten goals, fifty
four assists for sixty four points in seventy two games, which is a sixty
six point pace, twenty seven power play point points, tons of hits,
blocks and shots. Really good for those bash metrics twenty first at his position,
seven years, eight eight and a half million, he's it's looking like
a pretty good value already. He's definitely providing a ton of offense. His
defensive impacts are neutral, so that's fine. He really does better in the
offensive areas anyways. So what do we think about these two? I know
and fantasy it's been tough because you usually want the top power play defenseman,
and he and Hedman have alternated a bit, and sire Chef looked like he
took it and the headman took it back at times. What do you think
we should expect here for Sergacheff in particular right now in the power play.
Yeah, no, I think Sergacheff again, he's the thing with the Lightning
too. That especially when you're looking at something like this for Fantasy. The
Lightning of eight players right now under contract through twenty twenty six seasons, and
they're all young players. So, like you said, I don't want to
say changing of the guard too much, but you're seeing some of those younger
guys that are locked in. They got those big contracts and there's a lot
of sure on them to step up as far as leadership goes. Sergey is
one of those guys. I think Hedman, especially like last year towards the
end he got pretty banged up, which didn't help. But Serge's really been
stepping up, taking on more of a leadership role, and I do think
that it's just going to go up. I saw him getting into his rhythm
there in the second half of the season. He was really determined and I
can only imagine what he's going to be like this year. They lost some
leadership on that team. He's going to be one of those guys that steps
up and fills in that hole. So as far as like what you're saying,
power play, that's going to be on him. And they got a
couple of new guys on defense, so Sergey's going to be taking the reins
there along with Headman, and those guys play off each other. So well,
let's talk more about Hedman because we need to take a moment to appreciate
this guy and an eighty two game pace. He was the fourth best defenseman
in fantasy hockey last year and he's been one of the top defense he spend
in the NHL for a very long time. I ran the numbers from Evolving
Hockey over the last ten years. Collectively, only Romanosi and Eric Carlson have
more points than Hedman among defensemen, and he ties with Carlson for the most
primary assists out of that group on the power play. Headman is alone in
scoring for that ten year period in terms of power play points two hundred and
twelve. As referenced in the Cergachev talk, he wasn't alone at the top
this year. For the first time since twenty fourteen fifteen, Headman was not
the top defenseman score for the Lightning bonus points than any listeners who can name
the top score that year because it blew my mind. But of course it
wasn't exactly a disaster for Headman. Nine goals, forty assists for forty nine
points and seventy six games is still amazing. Twenty second in the NHL and
defenceman scoring over two shots, two blocks and a hit mark a nice peripheral
floor. But like you said, banged up and that six year run of
all Star teams and top three Norris finishes ended last year? Was it a
blip for the soon to be thirty three year old. Where is the mileage
of fourteen years? And that doesn't even count all the long playoff runs that
add all kinds of mileage to the guy? Has that all taken a toll?
And maybe Headman's a bit on the decline? I think last season was
again like one of those I feel like I've heard this so many times as
Headman on the decline? Is Stamco's almost done or the lightning? Was this
their downfall? And really last year was really tough because they were coming off
those back to back runs and then the Eastern Conference final and then the Stanley
Cup Final, and it's just they were so run down, and it's natural
as we age we get a little more tired than the younger guys. I
think it's a mix of everything. Yeah, Hedman is getting a little older
obviously, but I think part of that was just wear and terror, exhaustion
and three cup runs in a row. It's just really hard to gauge that.
I think this season he's gonna be coming back with the vengeance And it's
also sergacheff is he's younger, he has a lot of energy, he has
a big contract, like he's in his peak right now and he's going to
get better and Headmen's just in a different phase of his career. But I
don't think he's on the decline. I think he's gonna have a great season.
And I'm sure he's been hearing what everyone's been saying about him, so
that's not gonna resonate well with him. Yeah, he's great. He's an
all around great defenseman. I will say too, when mcdonnah left the Lightning,
when they had to trade him, it changed the dynamic of their defense,
and I think ever since mcdonnah left that's something that they've been trying to
find their groove there on defense. So That is another reason why Sergey really
had to step up there. And I'm interested to see how the defense gels
now it's last season with them putting things together and figuring out what works.
That's where headman steps in, and he's the leader on the defense, no
doubt, no question. I wouldn't say he's on the decline, but one
day he will get there, but we're not there yet. Yeah, those
are definitely the top two defenseman. Frankly some of the top defenseman in the
NHL, but certainly the top two on this team. Let's just throw out
a couple again players arbitrurely put him up against one another and see who you
like the best for the depth defenseman. Nick Purbicks, Eric Turnak, felipe
A Meyers, three different guys who've had smaller worlds. Turnachf it's really popped
up a couple of years ago. But which one of these guys do you
like best? From at least a fantasy scoring perspective or anything else you have
to say about these guys. You saw what it looks like when Turnak wasn't
in the lineup and the playoffs. He saw what it was like when Hedman
wasn't in the lineup in the playoffs against Toronto this year as well, because
they were both banged up. Turnach obviously was we had a head injury,
so he was out the whole time. But you could see what happens on
defense when those guys aren't playing. I think as far as like from a
fantasy standpoint, I think Nick Perbicks is really interesting because again he's young,
and he's gritty, and he's fast, and he's kind of on the up
here for the Lightning. He watched him last year find his way and it's
funny when you watch he and Radish play together. Those guys, they're the
young UN's on defense, Darren Radish and Nick Ferbick. I would be interested
to see what Nick Purbicks does. Churnocks taken some brutal hits and had some
injuries, and I'm sure he'll have a great season, but I would keep
an eye on Nick Purbicks. He's on the up for sure. He's really
young too, So Radish definitely someone to look for in cap leagues, I
would say, because he yea not making a lot and he's going to be
playing, so we'd like to see that. But I'm not sure that he's
not going to score a lot, but the volume per dollar might be there.
Yeah, we saw at the end in the playoffs against Toronto like he
really started to find his own there. He's a late bloomer, and I
know that they really liked what they saw from him and just signed him for
two more years. So he's definitely somebody watched. But yeah, Nick purbicks
is, I think he'll just continue to get better as well. Yeah,
definitely. And he is Taylor's older brother if I remember correctly. Connection there.
Yea. Let's move on to the goalies, and the Lightning gave up
the seventeenth ranked goals expected goals for sixty according to Evolving Hockey two point sevent
to two, but conceded the thirteenth actual goals two point eight five according to
NHL dot com. And a big reason obviously is Andre Bossileski. What a
stud he is. He's basically been an anchor back there for many years,
and yeah, he has got the big contract, but it has been well
worth it. He's a workhorse, he plays a lot of games, he
wins most of them, and in terms of a fantasy asset, there's for
a long time there wasn't a question who was better, although at this point
we're starting to entertain ideas about it's just Jerkin and Sirokin. But just in
terms of what we're talking about here, he was incredible seventeen goals save above
expected point eight six delta Fenwick just really strong number, thirty three wins,
nine fifteen say percentage outperforming all of his expected numbers. I can't imagine too
much changes with Vassilevski. I think there's a little bit question about the backup
he hasn't It's been a while since he had a really reliable, good backup
that could play a lot of games, which is why he's played over sixty
to the last two years. I would imagine, do you see anything changes
their same old great stuff from Vassilevski, volume starter, lots of wins,
good numbers, anything changing there. I think that last year was and he
said it like it was a really difficult season. It was hard for him
to push through his mind and his body weren't connected. He was just exhausted
on both sides. And he came out at the end of the season and
said this wasn't my normal season, Like I can be so much better and
they were just he was exhausted, right, not an excuse for them,
but that's what he said. So I think that his season, he'll actually
have a better season this year. There's a lot of questions as far as
like the backup goalie situation goes in Tampa, and I know Coop is adamant
that a goalie should be able to play sixty games, no problem, So
I know it was interesting when Vassilevski was talking about how exhausted he was,
and I think he said like game thirty five is when he started to wear
down mentally and physically. So I am interested to see what happens with the
backup goalie situation. I haven't heard a ton and Johansen, he hasn't played
a lot, doesn't have a lot of experience. We don't really have much
to go on as far as that ghost, but he's young and I know
that's what they were looking for. I think Vassie's gonna have a much better
season this year. He's rested up. He just had and he was banged
up. He said last year too. A lot of little I don't know
if injuries would be the word, but he's just he was just banged up,
so I would expect to that act actually have a better season this year.
A well rested big Cat should be fun to watch. Oh boy,
arrested, healed, motivated, Vassilevski is a scary thing for the That is,
I did want to touch a little bit more on the backup situation,
because yeah, Jonas Johansson has not too many NHL games already five in his
career, and frankly, most of them have not been very good. I
definitely believe though, that behind a much better team than he has had in
some of his stints, then maybe he can do okay. But he played
for Colorado who was a really good team obviously and struggled, and I'm wondering
how much or the least they give him because they have Hugo Alnafelt, who
has been who is I think one of the best prospect goalies around, and
he previously had struggled a little bit in the HL, and so I understand
why he didn't get too many looks previously. But he was really good last
year, seems to be pretty close to NHL already, and I almost wonder
if they don't give him ten to fifteen starts and maybe Johnson a couple here
and there, because all thefelt almost seems like he might already be similar better
than Johnson. What do you think about that option? Yeah, I think,
like I said, there's still a lot of question and of what's going
to happen there, But I could see that being the competition situation between the
two of them as far as who's going to get the backup spot. And
yeah, like you said, I agree with you one percent. The thing
with the Lightning is they they're not going to really tell us. We're going
to find out when we find out. But I could definitely see it being
a situation, especially Joe Hansson. They don't have a lot to go on
with him. He doesn't have a lot of NHL experience. I think it's
going to be one of those who's going to compete for the backup and who's
going to get out there and we'll see. I think they'll bok get a
fair shot to show what they have and we'll see who gets it. But
yeah, as long as Vassi gets some time off to rest his body,
especially if they're going to make another run, which I know that that's their
plan, it's going to be whoever can step up, and you don't know
because we've seen players like what we were talking about with Hagel, you just
don't know until they get in there, especially with the Lightning, because these
players get in there and they thrive in that environment, and it could be
the same for Joe Hansson. We'll see what happens. Premendous. Thank you,
DeAndre. You've brought us a lot of information on these Tampa Bay Lightnings.
How should people out there follow your work? Yeah, so I am
covering Lightning for the Hockey News as the season training camp happens in the next
few weeks. I'll have a lot going on with that, but yeah,
I you can follow me on my Twitter too, which we can post when
we send this episode out. But the Hockey News, I'm doing a Lightning
show with the Belief Network, so we'll have a bolt like a breakdown,
a weekly breakdown show all throughout the season. And I do a serious x
NHL Network Radio, so do a lot of Bolts breakdowns there too, and
some league stuff. But kind of it's gonna be a busy season and we're
getting close. I'm excited. Absolutely everybody should definitely follow your work, and
thank you so much for being on the show today. Yeah, thank you
so much, guys Wilson. Well, that's good fired pass goodness at quick
grab. Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Catsiman Cats Instincts. Time for
another edition of Cat's Instincts with Kats Silverman of ingolmag Toronto Maple Leaf edition,
and we got a couple interesting ones here. Joseph wall is the first one
we're going to talk about, and he was a twenty sixteen third round pick
by Toronto sixty three two hundred pounds now twenty five, and he's primarily played
with the Marley's of the HL the last two seasons, but he appeared in
an eleven NHL games over the last couple of seasons. And when you look
at his stats on Evalving Hockey, he's really outperformed his expected save percentage,
which small sample size, but that's really good to see. His hockey prospecting,
though, has really trended down. He's been from like a forty high
forty two now a high twenty six percent chance of being a starter. The
best comp I found for him was like a Cam Talbot type. Could be
worse, but he's there. And obviously they have some son off and Martin
Jones, and the Martin Jones experience is coming to Toronto, everyone and get
ready. But to tell us, Cat what your instincts tell us about Joseph
Wall and whether he's maybe already better than Martin Jones. Oh, man,
I think bringing Jack Campbell back would be better than Martin Jones. But God
bless Martin Jones. What a great guy. He's such a trooper. I
would have probably hung him up by now. He's milking those contracts. Yeah,
I think we've I think in years past we've touched on this with Toronto.
There's always this giant asterisk that you have to put next to any prospect
in Toronto that says, this is what I would project them to be on
any other team in the league, because whatever bad juju Toronto has, they
break everything they buy, especially in net. We saw it with Jack Campbell,
we saw it with Matt Murray. They just they can't seem to get
consistent goaltending, and they can't seem to get consistent, healthy goaltending, and
then things trend down and then somebody leaves and everyone's angry, and it's always
a big long saga. I had Joseph owl Is one of my top not
just top prospects for Toronto but across the league. When he was playing for
Boston College, I was like, this guy's it. He played a similar
type of game, dispensing night, just a really calm, controlled, consistent
game that had so much technical structure that he almost looked like he was playing
a level below where he should be. During some of his collegiate games,
the defense would fall apart in front of him and he would still be exactly
where he needed to be. I loved getting to watch him play. He
actually swung through Arizona playing against ASU one time, and that was a game
that ASU played at Heela River Arena, So I got to watch him in
an NHL arena playing as a collegiate goalie, and that was so much fun
to watch. I watched him and I was like, this kid's it.
This is the best goalie where I ever going to see. And then it
just I believe he's had some injuries over the last couple of years. I
know that he's had some time where he's been out. Coming back to the
HL, he still had to like skip some time here and there, and
I just I don't know what to think anymore. Because he looks really good
during the game. Cit he's played in Toronto. If he has a single
bad game, the entire team, the entire fan base once and traded.
There's always that pressure point. I think last year it looked like he finally
just hit his stride consistency wise, and I think he's a better option than
Martin Jones. I appreciate that they're not pulling a Ben SCRIBBNS and throwing him
out there without any backup, but I also don't think that Martin Jones is
the answer. So we'll see. I think that if he was on any
other team, if he was on Winnipeg, Chicago, Anaheim, Arizona,
New York, he would be in the NHL this year. He'd have a
few bumps and then it would be smooth sailing, and I'd say, yes,
he's absolutely a starter. He's ready to go. I can't wait to
see what happens in Toronto. He might spend another two years in the NHL,
who knows, but in theory he should be their best option in net
this year would be my tentative prediction. I think when he's playing his game,
he's consistent, he's good, he can withstand the pressure playing college hockey
and Boston's hard, and he did it incredibly well. But Toronto always manages
to suppress me. So maybe he'll play a year of NHL hockey and then
retire. Who knows. So did you say he's the best option in net?
Does that include Samsonov? Are you just talking about that? I didn't.
I loved some of the games I saw from Samsonov in Toronto, and
then some of them I watched and I was like, this is this also
wasn't the answer for them. They there was a bold strategy for them to
take on two reclamation projects at once, and I think they hit on like
a forty five percent success right there out of the two guys. We'll see
how it goes this year. They're bringing any hat another reclamation project. So
good luck to Joseph Bowl. I'm not sure Mine Jones the reclamation project anymore.
He's there, he's just there. Have fun with that, Toronto fans.
Anyways, let's move on to artur Aktiamov and the twenty twenty fourth round
pick by Toronto six one hundred and sixty eight pounds. For as much fanfare
and noise, you're here out of Toronto and maple leaf fans. I feel
like, frankly, we haven't heard enough of this guy, because I think
he's pretty stellar. He's now twenty one years old. He's been great in
Russia, though he hasn't played in many higher level games. I guess maybe
that's part of it. He hasn't played much in the KHL. It's been
mainly in the VHL and the MHL looks like only four KHL games. But
he probably will get more of a chance this year in the KHL. He's
in the Akbar's Kazan program and it seems they've had some goalies at the KHL
level, so they haven't needed him. In the VHL, though he's been
one of the top goalies there. Save percentage well above expected goal save above
expected is plus twenty four. I have here on sport contract that seems ridiculously
high. So Actiamof he might be a ways away, just in terms of
he's twenty one and he's in Russia. He's physically a ways away, but
he hasn't really played a lot of KHL time. So what do your instincts
tell us about art or actiamof? Cat I think he's great. He's a
goalie that I when he got drafted, I had hoped that he would get
drafted. He was someone that I was a little nervous maybe wouldn't because,
like you said, he hadn't really gotten a lot of exposure at the higher
levels. He was undersized. I know he's listed at six one. I
believe that has gone up. I think he was initially listed at six feet,
which sometimes at the Russian goaltenders, they there's almost like a stigma where
they say, oh, this guy's listed at six feet, he's a goaltender.
He's probably only five of eight, and so I was nervous that he
was going to end up getting skipped over to like Thomas Millich and like Dustin
Wolf, falling to the very bottom of his draft year. And then Toronto
scooped him up, and I was like, that's great. I believe he
got drafted during one of the years that Joseph wol was dealing with an injury.
So it was nice seeing them actually prepare with a contingency plan by drafting
someone else that I thought was a good option. I do think he has
a couple of years away. They could probably use him now and just get
rid of Martin Jones, but I don't think they're going to do that.
He's fun to watch, he's easy to watch. He doesn't seem to make
a lot of mistakes. I remember watching some film on him and thinking,
this kid's great. Why is he not getting any buzz? And I think
that among Leafs fans, every time they discover him on I believe X formerly
Twitter, it's like referring to Prince he. Anytime a Leafs fan would find
him, they would all get really excited and start talking about him, and
then buzz would die off again, and then it would get exciting again,
and then it would die off again. So I think it's going to take
him coming over to North America to really get the buzz going. But I'm
excited to see what he can do this year. I believe he's no longer
playing in the VHL. I think he's starting this season in the KHL,
So knock on Wood will actually get a chance to see him against some higher
quality a competition over a full season and totally see his numbers stay consistent,
because I believe they've been pretty consistently good every year no matter where he's been
playing. But we'll see. He may be one that doesn't necessarily want to
come over unless he's got a clear starting job open. He may not want
to come over just to play in the HL. So we'll see how it
goes. But I do like his game. I think he's a lot of
fun to watch. Indeed, I've been calling X the Artists formerly known as
Twitter just I think we're on the same page. That get the Prince thing.
And the other thing that you said there that just made me realize is
I think we've established a new line of NHL or competent goalie, and that's
the Martin Jones line. We could just call that the threshold. Right.
He's like the case keenom of the NHL, and people just keep signing him,
hoping he'll do something for them and just passing him aroun. He seems
like a really nice guy. I've interviewed him and he seems really nice.
He just like you said, I don't know if there's a reclamation project there
anymore, because we're officially enough years removed from his game being NHL quality that
I think we can safely say he's not there anymore. But maybe Toronto sees
differently. Yeah, I saw way more than I ever wanted to watching Sharks
games with him, so I'm over it. Thanks so much, Kad for
giving us your instincts on the Toronto May Believe goalies. We'll be back right
after this dig the Dynasty dig Coronald's Maple Leafs. Addition, this team again
did very well, which means that their system is relatively low. It's ranked
twenty first among the thirty two NHL clubs, and it all starts out with
one of the guys we've already talked about in this show. It's your no
brainer. Who is it, Victor, Yeah, it is Matthew Nice,
twenty twenty one second round pick by the Leafs, sixty three twenty nine pounds
left wing, probably part of the most dominant line in college hockey with Logan
Cooley Jimmy Snuggrud certainly in the regular season, twenty one goals twenty one assists
for forty two points. Nice even split there in forty games for the University
of Minnesota. The least productive point wise of that trio, by the way,
which is interesting, but he does a lot of the things that are
really important for the line. Sign an intry level contract with Toronto. Played
three regular season games, and seven playoff games before being knocked out with a
concussion, which was very unfortunate. And yeah, but he looked really good
in the time that he was doing it two years left on that entry level
contract. Nice. When you look at Mitch Brown's tracking data comes in overall
at a ninety eighth percentile, really fantastic. Most of his offensive and transition
numbers are just solidly great. Nothing really stands out as elite in terms of
the expected goals and expected assists are both in the top seventy fifth eightieth percentile.
But the rest of the things are all really good too, like slot
passes, control entries and entries denied. Those kinds of things were all really
good. His defensive game is also really good, and some of his other
things like advantages created and board plays to the middle, driving play getting into
the inside are all really excellent for him. So he looks like one of
the best players in college hockey, which is what we already knew. But
it's a pretty well rounded great, not just in one specific certain area.
But to learn a little bit more about Matt Nice, we have to talk
to our FHL scout and Jesse let's hear about that. Yeah, and by
the way, I would agree he looked good in the playoffs. He watched
him out there. You're like, I know you can't rely on young guys,
but he looks really wrong. God out there, you better keep him
rolling. Our FHL scout for nights is Austin. He is saying the following
un skating nice has gotten much quicker from his draft during until now he's added
some good quickness and agility to his game, both fine assets already but now
much more refined and strong. Isn't the fastest skater, but has looked much
better. Needs to maintain consistency, but his best. He's shown explosive traits.
Passing and handling, another aspect where he's shown improvement. Not an elite
playmaker or puck mover, but he's done well in transition and clearances with the
puck both at the NCAA and NHL level. The lack of high end passing
traits may hold him back, but only slightly. Adding more routine puck movement
could solidify him as a sure fire first liner. Shooting, he has one
of the best shots of the current crop of NHL prospects. A good shot,
awareness and accuracy can score from almost anywhere in the ice. If he
plays next to John Tavares and Mitch Marner on the Leaf second line next season,
he'll have the potential to really show it off IQ. The IQ and
the patients have really grown. He's a mature player who rarely makes a mistake
on the ice. Nice as a smart and collected player who plays with a
good mixture of calmness and intensity. So overall, the best asset a power,
a prototypical power forward great shot in IQ, He's got the ability to
be a truly talented two way winger at the NHL level. The shot is
the most dangerous weapon, being a versatile and skilled score, and he's a
first line score with the potential for an even more rounded game. The biggest
concern he's only an average playmaker. That's what's holding his game back from being
a long term top sixer. There's not much that holds him back. And
then, of course the concussion that you mentioned is a concern in terms of
will that impact him long term concussions we know have derailed more than one career.
The top tier outcome at his very best, a long term first line
player for the Leaves, he could become a top six forward by this season
with maturity and IQ an elite shot. Nice says the potential to spend his
prime in of top forward line see tier one with power play one potential and
fiftieth percentile middling outcome. Even if he's on the second line playing alongside to
VARs and Marner is a great consolation in Toronto. Depending on how has skated
and playmaking translates in a full NHL season, it will determine if he's closer
to top six or middle six anyway. Either way, second line seems to
be the balance and our NHL rank King has brought us data on this one,
and his data shows that he's topping out very much like Austin said,
a little above a second line potential in terms of where he stands in his
equivalences after his NHL debut. And Nice is up against Joe Kim Kimmel in
our player comparison our vote that went out on the internet. Kimmel the second
the first round prospect drafted by the Nashville Predators in twenty twenty two, versus,
of course, Nice, the second round pick of the Leafs in twenty
twenty one. And Nice comes out in a constin dead victory at fifty three
to forty seven percent. I don't know if you'd call that decisive, but
two hundred twenty three votes that's a pretty significant sample. Would you take Nice
over Kimmel their victor? Yeah? I think I would. It's been interesting
to track his development and he's looked so good at every step out performing And
I was definitely someone that was like pumped the brake last year when everyone was
calling him a future first liner. He definitely looked like a bit of a
drafts deal at fifty seventh overall, but people were starting to lose their mind,
like he was going to be the next William Lander or something. But
he has really popped off this year. Can he translate that fully? We
talked a little bit about that with Peter Harling and the main show, and
the thing that puts it over the top for me is that he's ready now,
He's ready. Now he's going to get this opportunity. He's going to
be the opportunity with great players at least at even strength to make him look
even better. So that's going to really help. Kimmel had a bit of
a down year with Yip Jyp over than Liga he when he did come over
though, he was awesome for year Neck of the Woods there the Milwaukee Admirals
in the HL, and that was really impressive. I've talked to Jacob Stoller
about his performance and said that he was really impressed with how well he transitioned.
So Kimmel, I think can take it over. I think he's a
little bit more of a one dimensional layer though than Nys. I think Nys
can really do it in a lot of different ways and brings a lot to
a line in terms of the versatility that he offers, and I think Kamel
it's a little bit less. So I think this is close. I think
both of these are interesting because of the proximity and how ready he is already.
I would take Nis. I think their upside is probably similar. Maybe
Kamel has more upside as a goal scorer, which would be nice, but
yeah, we need to wait a little bit to see where that's going to
fit in. And Nashville is a little bit less in terms of exciting landing
spot for him. So it is close, and I that's represented in the
poll, but I would take Niys here. If you look at the hockey
prospecting nice has it's actually pretty similar. In the D plus one year,
they both had a nine percent chance of being a star. Nis, even
though he had an amazing NC double a season, because he didn't progress that
much he still is. He went down to a five percent chance of being
an NHLer. I think that's a little harsh, but that's the way it
is. His PNHL E though, was fifty three as you mentioned, and
Kemel down from thirty two to nine percent chance of being a star based on
his lega production. If you based it on the HL small sample size,
it would be much higher. So not too terribly different for these two,
although nys has a much better NHL or probability. If you look at Nye's
individual comps, He's got some guys like Zach Boichuk is one of his comps.
T j Oshi is the one that I think he looks fairly similar in
the model and might actually be a similar type of producer. And oh she
ended up being a star producer, so like that for him. Nye's in
the top down Hockey model eight percent chance of being a star forty nine percent
chance of being an NHL or so. I think the upside maybe isn't super
super high, but because of the environment Nis is going to be in.
I think that bumps him up quite a bit. And in terms of if
you're drafting, like one of my rookie drafts, I was able to take
him with my second round pick, then this could be any guys, not
necessarily just twenty twenty three's And I'm really excited about that one because you can
slot him in and get a ton of NHL games to a lot of him
right because he only has three and so depending on which your minors threshold is,
this is what you want. You want someone stepping into a top six
role and immediately being impactful, and then you're going to get that from Nice.
So I like that about him, Bessie, tremendous. Next up,
who is your need to know prospect? The need to know for the Maple
Leafs is Nicholas Moldenhower twenty twenty two third round pick five, ten hundred and
seventy pound was in the USAHL for this past season. He's a center right
wing by the way. In the USAHL and his draft season went just over
a point per game. This season, he increased it quite a bit,
with seventy five points in fifty five games. Thirty goals forty five assists for
the Chicago Steel and he will be in at the University of Michigan this season.
That's currently still unsigned by the Leafs. I'm not too worried about that
part. Looking at Mitch Brown's tracking data, Moldenhower has some really interesting highs
and lows here. So really good expected expected goals per sixty, quite a
bit lower expected assists per sixty, but really good at making dangerous passes to
the slot. Pretty good transition player. In fact, that's probably his best
asset is his transition plays a ninety fifth percentile. Not so good defensively,
but it has some really good translatable features like boards to the middle plays and
advantages created. So some interesting stats here with moulden Hower. Overall rates out
at a ninety fourth percentile in the USAHL. But we need to learn a
little bit more about Nick moulden Hower, so we're going to find that out
from our FHL scout back to Austin for moulden howerd's scouting report. Skating good
high motor skating with decent speed and the ability to glide and transition with the
puck. Skating stride could come off as a bit bulky at times passing and
handling. A smart playmaker who does walk, creating chances for his teammates,
having good awareness for chances on the ice, although sometimes Moldenhower can be prone
to turnovers. Good puck handler who does well carrying the puck around the ice,
whether in a scoring chance or in transition. Moldenhower has some good elusiveness
that makes him hard to stop shooting. A decent shooter does well making the
best of his chances. Moldenhower is an impressive shooter who can create chances for
himself with ease, nice eye for the net in a very quick release i
Q. He anticipates the game and has a good control of the flow of
the game. Has good calmness on the ice, although he can be pressured
into giving up plays along the boards by bigger players due to a smaller stature.
So overall the best asset. He does a lot right. He's good
offensively, he's mature, he's smart, he's defensively responsible, feels like a
player who has a lot of translatable pro skills to his game, and the
transition games looked better this year as well. The biggest concern for Austin headed
to NCAT Michigan. He needs to add some strength his frame. Moldenhower's one
hundred and seventy pounds will need to size up. There's time where he can
give up turnovers when pressed by more physical skaters that could hinder his game.
Could also stand to be quicker as a skater. The top outcome from Moldenhower
Austin sees is a tier three player, a mobile middle six option with a
big progression at the NCAA. He may find himself a second line or second
pairing player in the future with his shot and intensity. Good faceoff taker that
could potentially stick at center in the NHL. Has potential to play on the
penalty kill as well. His most realistic outcome a third liner at the NHL
level. Good faceoff taker, but may be more suited for the wing at
the NHL level, although the least do well with first top forwards like Moldenhower.
We'll need to add strength to his game or he could be risked at
being bullied by NHL opponents. The NHL rank King Mason Black is here to
give us p NHL E equivalency scores and looking pretty good in the draft year
of Nicholas Moldenhower. His number one match Matthias Mitchelli, followed by Lucas Raymond
and Jean Gabriel Pajout. A little space between a first line and a second
line potential basically for the Sky and for the matchup. For the Twitter poll,
we have Nicholas Moldenhoer versus William Whitelaw, who was drafted one year later,
but also as a third rounder. And Whitelaw was drafted by the Columbus
Blue Jackets a twenty three molden Hower of course, by the Leaves in twenty
two. And the poll is out there, and apparently Columbus Bluejacket Nation just
overwhelms in these votes once again in one of these things, because Whitelaw by
two to one margin sixty seven percent to thirty three percent over Nicholas Moldenhower victor.
Is that which or maybe it's the least fans just hating on themselves.
That's also possible. I appreciate a fan base that has sufficient self hatred.
No that don't with this. I think white Law is a very interesting third
round pick. He definitely has some upside and he was drafted early in the
third round. He was with Youngstown of the USHL, who won the Clark
Cup, and he was definitely one of the reasons for that, with thirty
six goals in sixty two games for sixty one points total in the almost point
per game in his draft season, which is really fantastic for a draft eligible
in the USAHL. He was also great in the playoffs, so he'll be
going over to University Wisconsin next season. But yeah, no, I like
molden Hower. The thing I didn't mention about white Law is that he is
also five foot nine, so he's pretty small. I don't know how much
he's going to grow. Molden howerd is a little bit undersized at five to
eleven, but he has a little bit more durability or NHL frame. I
guess to go off of five ten in that range, so maybe not too
much different in terms of size, but I think that might be slightly more
of an issue for white Law. They scored similarly in their draft season.
I think in terms of equivalency, white Law was maybe a little bit higher,
but the piano jelly was higher form molden Howers, so they are similar.
I think I would rather have Molden Hower though just because he's a little
bit he's a little bit farther down the funnel, but his pina Chelly is
higher. So it'll be interesting to see how both do and their transition to
college. That will really make or break here. But as of now,
I would take molden Hower. Yeah, when you look at these two,
they actually compare almost exactly in terms of their hockey prospecting, star potential and
NHL or probability. If you look just at molden Hower, he's got some
interesting comps. Guys like Christian Fisher, Cruz Lucius Cody Ekean are some guys
he looks like Ryan Getzlaf and Adam dedmarsh or some more exciting options, but
probably won't be quite like that. And in terms of the top down hockey
model, just three percent chance of being a star twenty three percent chance of
being an NHL are definitely a little bit more pessimistic there, Jesse, Victor,
who is your keeper eye prospect and is your nickname for him? Still
the lesser, Yeah, the lesser Robertson, Nick Robertson. People made fun
of me for that back in the day, Jesse, But who's laughing now?
Who's laughing now, Yeah, So Nick Robertson, we already talked about
him. It's been a really frustrating go. We talked about the injuries.
The twenty nineteen second round pick. He's still only five nine hundred eighty three
pounds and it's just made it really difficult for him to translate to the pros.
Fifteen NHL games played this season and a total of thirty one in his
career. I think things could have gone much differently if he didn't have so
many injuries, but this is part of the issue when you're a smaller guy
in a fast and physical league. This time it was his shoulder and so
that kind of limited him. This is a really big year for him,
though, because he's got he's on the last year of his entry level deal
and we're going to have to see what he can do. And as we
mentioned, there's competition with Matthew and I has already potentially taken that role,
and so he might be in the bottom six fighting NHL regulars for a role.
If you look at his rap him chart on Evolving Hockey, he's been
pretty average in his time in the NHL, which was pretty decent for a
young player to be able to say that, but there isn't like a major
reason of, Oh, we need to have this guy in our lineup,
So that's a little bit of an issue. He's going to have to really
earn his spot, and it sounds like he's motivated. Hopefully he'll be healthy,
Hopefully his body can hold up. And to hear a little bit more
about Robertson and where he's at. Let's hear from our FHL scout. Yeah,
our FHL scout Brandon has this to say about mister Robertson skating full throttle,
high torque dynamo of a skater, quick feet with an up tempo cadence,
attackings, acceleration off the draws explosive can put immediate pressure on opponents when
his team loses the face off. The use of his edgework to keep momentum
through turns and transitions allows him to be agile and adaptable. Could shake attackers
with powerful stops followed by a recoiling acceleration to scate himself into open space and
time passing. In handling, uses his body along with his speed to shield
the puck and turn direct attempts to attack the puck into glancing blows typically passes
with a purpose, even on routine and safe plays, and demonstrate smooth hands
with lateral deeks and jukes that look effortless and attempt to pull opponents out of
position. Shooting his one timer and one touch shot or his most potent offensive
weapons. They're accurate and come off his stick in a hurry. Oddly enough,
giving him too much time to set up a shot seems to be more
detrimental to his accuracy than helpful. His constant movement and jostling for position lands
him in some prime territory to get off a high dangerous scoring chance. IQ.
Robertson can see the offensive play developing, could shift his way behind the
defenders at times to get into prime real estate. At slower speeds or standstill.
He's more acceptable to having the puck stripped as he can get a bit
tunnel visioned and doesn't have the advantage of his skating. His feet seem to
be moving faster than his vision. He can get himmed in without a place
to move the puck, but his determination is visible in his posture and ready
to activate stance defense. Robertson skating it allows him to get back and support
the defensive side of the puck in a hurry. He's trailing the opponent's zone
entry. The area just inside the blue line is ripe for Robertson to swoop
in and rip the puck from the carrier, jump into transition the other way.
Hill hunt out opportunities along the boards and the d zone that allow him
to pressure and engage physically to turn over the puck. So the best asset
the dynamo like skating with a mind to push the pace. His biggest concern
vision and decision making under pressure, especially at the low speeds. What's the
top tier outcome for Robertson. It is a top six scoring winger forty goals
seventy to eighty point, plenty of shots and hits lethal. If paired with
a puck possession focused playmaking linemate fiftieth percentile middling one would be a middle six
energy and checking role with some scoring twenty goals forty points. That sort of
thing stylistic comparable a grittier hybrid between shades of Tomash Tatar with skating closer to
that of Braden Point and in the NHL ranking data the NHL E model,
we see that his potential is kind of tracking down as he goes through the
funnel. He's now dipped below second line type potential, way down from twenty
nineteen twenty the houcyon days when people were in fact giving Victor a hard time
for calling Jason Robertson the good Robertson brother and Nicholas Robertson's equivalences seemed to be
poking towards superstar levels. Now Nick Robertson, we're going to pair him off
in a one on one mana wa Mono versus Morok kuznadin Off in our Twitter
poll and Murad Kuznadinof in a wash sixty one to thirty nine percent. Once
again, maybe it is a self hatred situation, Victor, But is it
that clear to you if you would ask this question a couple of years ago,
I think it would have been a little bit absurd to think of that.
But the thing is, what I like about this is that these are
both small guys. They're both five nine and Murat playing in the KHL.
I think this is a huge feather in his cab. I would take him.
Yes, I think it's somewhat easy at this point for a couple of
reasons. One, he's been in the KHL primarily for the last two seasons,
and even three seasons ago he played mostly in the KHL, although he
was a little bit limited by injuries. So he's been a professional for several
years playing against the biggest, toughest, strongest players essentially outside of the NHL,
because the KHL is a really strong league. This season, he had
forty one points in sixty three games for Scott And yes he does play for
Scott, which is really good team, but he's pushed his way to the
near the top of the lineup there. That's really good to see. His
PNA Chilli is much higher. He's consistently been able to stay in the lineup.
He's been able to perform and produce against tough competition, and Nick Robertson
hasn't been able to say that for various reasons. The other issue I think
is interesting with this comparison is it Murrott definitely looks like he's a center and
Robertson is definitely more of a winger. So it's a little bit easier for
wingers to break in even if Toronto has a crowded top six or top nine.
But for Khuzendinoff. That's what Minnesota needs, right. They definitely need
centers. They have a couple between Hartmann and Joelas and ericson act. There's
some need there for a good, good center. It's probably not going to
be this season, maybe one more until he comes over for who's Indanoff,
But I like him better. I think the points subside is better. You
look at the hockey prospect team between these two and Huzendinoff has near a thirty
percent chance of being a star, and Robertson has kind of down since his
peak in the D plus one season when he really went off in the OHL.
It's been a long time since then. If you look at some other
comps for Robertson, he's got some guys like Jordan Stall. Marco Sturm is
someone who looks a lot alike in the model and he ended up being an
average producer with some seasons that work interesting but mostly not super relevant in fantasy.
And the Jay Fresh card just six percent chance of being a star,
seventy one percent chance of being an NHL so a little bit more pessimistic,
but there's still a chance there, Jesse. There are more guys that we
could talk about, but we don't have time here. So if you're patron,
definitely listening to my top ten recap for this team and all the other
teams. And if you're interested in doing some scouting with us, you can
shoot me a DM on Twitter, Discord, or email us and we'll be
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