WEBVTT

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Good afternoon. You're listening to Gambling
with an Edge. Now here are your

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host Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin.
Good afternoon, Welcome to Gambling with an

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Edge. I'm Bob Dancer and I'm
Richard Munchkin. Today our guest is Captain

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Jack Andrews, one of the principles
and co founder of unabated dot com who

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talks about all things sports betting related. Captain Jack, Welcome back to Gambling

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with an Edge. It's a pleasure
to be here, guys. I guess

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this is the Farewell Tour, so
I'm honored to be one of the guests

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on the on the farewell Tour.
Yes, and right now, we don't

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know how long this Farewell Tour is
going to last. We hum when we

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announced it last week. In the
next two days, we've got four emails

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from people who want to be part
of the tour and they seem to keep

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coming. So I don't know if
anybody's going to let us retire, but

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we're trying. So in the meantime, let's have a good show today with

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Captain Jack. All right, So, last December, Unabated put out a

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new tool that some of your users
have been able to use to extract a

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considerable amount of money from sports books. What happened. Yeah, So here's

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the funny thing about sports betting is
when we started Unabated, one of the

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main detraction point of detractions was what
if they suck all the edges out of

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sports betting, then there'll be nothing
left for everybody else. And what we've

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found in the two plus years that
we've been around is edges keep on showing

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up. There are always new ways
that sports betting is expanding throughout the country,

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and as a result, there's new
edges to be found just about every

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day. And we put out a
tool in December. Now let me let

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me just cavy out this by saying, I'm a firm believer that discretion is

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the better part of valor. So
I don't want to spell everything out implicitly

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here, explicitly here, because I
don't want other sports books to say,

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oh, okay, well, here's
what we can learn from this, and

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here's how we could protect ourselves from
this. I'm talking more to the players.

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And so we put out a tool. And this tool was intended for

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one thing. It was intended for
It was intended for football, and we

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found just through coincidence, that this
tool could point towards edges in basketball,

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and our user base quickly found this
out as well. And there was a

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major US sports book, one of
the bigger brands that's out there, that

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had a couple different inefficiencies in how
they were making their markets. And I

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don't want to again, I don't
want to spell it all out, but

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they were doing multiple things in an
inefficient manner, and our users picked up

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on it. Rufus and I picked
up on it. In fact, we

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had a discussion shortly after this tool
became public going man, if we would

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have realized that this was going on, maybe we wouldn't have made this tool.

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And long story short, our users
were able to use this tool to

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find edges in a basketball market and
do so to great profitability. In fact,

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in the first week of March,
the major sports book finally realized the

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error of their ways and they kind
of changed a couple of things that caused

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it no longer to be as great
an edge there. But we took a

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poll and found that our users had
already made somewhere between six and eight million

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dollars they had taken from this sports
book in the roughly three months, and

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it wasn't something that got blasted all
around Twitter or anything like that. That

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wasn't how the edge finally got under
uncovered. It was probably just due to

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the sports book saying, wait a
minute, our numbers, we don't seem

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to be holding as much in this
market as we once were, but our

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users who did a great job in
finding the edge and then sort of kind

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of keeping it on the down low, not blasting it around to everyone else.

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We make a point at unabated to
kind of teach not only the science

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of sports betting, but also the
art of sports betting, and they find

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that sometimes you need to be a
little discreete and how you handle things.

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You need to go about things in
a way that not only allows you to

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get the money down, but also
allows you to stay under the radar or

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stay outside of the radar that many
sports books are looking at when they're trying

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to find what the shark betters are
on and who's beating them. But I

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think we did a very good job, you know, pulling off that substantial

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score from that major sports book was
a big boost to a lot of users

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on our site as well as as
well as to Rufus and I and the

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other founders that Unabated because it kind
of helped prove that, uh, you

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know, there was an edge out
there. Nobody else really picked up on

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it. We quietly were able to
help our users kind of get the money

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and it was a success story for
us. I want to be clear that

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the tool was there, but but
there wasn't anything at Unabated that was saying

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to the players, hey, look
at this, here's you know, here's

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a big edge for you. That's
correct, right, right, So the

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tool was out there just to be
used against any sports book in any market,

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and it was able to everyone kind
of thinks of this tool as being

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focused on football. Stamford Wong made
it a very popular way to approach football.

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There's that's probably too big of a
hint, but I'll throw that out

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there, and people were used.
We were able to use this tool to

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apply it to basketball, and it
was, you know, sort of one

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of these things that kind of popped
up in our community discord that we have.

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We have a community of like minded
betters that all kind of correspond with

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each other on the discord, and
uh, you know, it got posted

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a few times, like, hey, does anyone have as anyone tried this,

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and once I looked at it,
I go, oh wow, that's

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that's that's really powerful. And it
sort of kind of went from there,

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and like I said, I kind
of I kind of preached to these people

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that hey, look, discretion is
the better part of valor. That's something

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I've learned early in my AP career
that you definitely need to figure out the

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best way to approach and edge rather
than just kind of just blasted all over

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the universe. So, yeah,
the tool was very agnostic and how it

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approached things, but it was able
to kind of uncover something that people just

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really didn't think was possible. So
you originally started out gambling as a black

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deck player and moved into sports.
Did you see um correlations between you know,

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being a card counter and sports betting. Yeah, you know, Richard,

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I started out as a blackcheck player
as a card counter, And that's

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one of the reasons I kind of
wanted to come on gambling with an edge,

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is because gambling with an edge was
always very influential in my career,

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in my personal evolution as an advantaged
player. I was able to kind of

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learn about things that maybe I wouldn't
have otherwise learned about by listening to episodes

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of Gambling with an Edge, and
I go all the way back, Bob,

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I go back when I would have
to tune into an internet link for

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a radio station somewhere in Vegas,
and the show was just aired at that

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time, and if I missed it, I missed it until it showed up

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in some archives somewhere. You know, it wasn't necessarily a regular podcast like

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it is these days. And I
learned about a lot of new things in

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advantage Play, and I guess one
of them was sports betting. You know,

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maybe those early episodes with like Frank
b or somebody like that, that

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really kind of piqued my interest into
what's out there. And I found over

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the years that sports betting and card
counting are not as far apart as people

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might think. It's all about it's
all about game selection. It's all about

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quantifying your edge. It's all about
betting your edge. It's all about getting

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the money down when you have an
edge. And you know, for a

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card counter picking the right casino to
play in is a huge part of the

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battle, right you know, everyone
knows this. You got to find the

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games that are beatable. Not all
the games are beating and the right table

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within that casino exactly like you got
to find you know, what games are

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being dealt, and sports betting similar
you got to find what sports have a

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beatable, have some kind of inefficiency
that's beatable. You need to find the

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right sports books to play at.
You need to find where the edges are

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at. You need to quantify your
edge, right, you need to say,

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and now, in card counting,
it's very simple. Oh, it's

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all based on a fifty two card
finite deck or you know, a multiple

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of that in a shoe game,
and so it's easy to quantify your edge.

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In sports betting, it's a little
harder to quantify your edge because you

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don't know the exact quantification of how
the game is going to play out.

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However, it's all about being less
wrong than the bookmaker. And so if

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you're using sort of like that,
we call this the top down method.

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You're looking to sources of truth within
the market that are sharper than the rest

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of the market, and when they
move, you move, and you play

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those lines at the less sharp books
that are that are more wrong than the

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market makers, and you can profit
that way, and you can quantify your

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edge that way, and you say, oh, I have a two point

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four percent advantage based on what this
sharp book has the line at, and

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then you know you can bet Kelly
criterion subsequent to a two point four percent

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edge, although you probably wouldn't bet
full Kelly in sports betting. You bet

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more of like a half or a
quarter Kelly. And that was kind of

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the it is behind Unabated We we
built these tools that people probably don't have

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on their own in order to help
them find the edge using our odd screen,

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quantify your edge using our various edge
tools that basically show right on the

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screen you have a two point four
percent edge if you bet this at Caesar's

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Sportsbook relative to the unabated line,
which is the unabated line is your your

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market maker truth line, and you
know, and then we have various tools

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for helping you to get the money
down, maybe in derivative markets or alternate

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line markets, or maybe you're just
here for the education and talking about the

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art of sports betting. It's a
lot like card counting, where you kind

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of you basically rinse and repeat and
you grind out your edge over time,

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and you can always learn a little
bit more about ways to beat blackjack,

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just like you can always learn a
little bit more about ways to beat sports

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betting. Yeah, anything else,
yeah, yeah, or any form of

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gambling right right. I was talking
to my son the other day and he

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said, you know, you could
be the smartest mass genius in the world

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and find a way to get a
big edge at sports betting. But if

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you only have one account, you
can't make any money. I mean even

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if you have one account at every
sports book. So to really make money,

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you need a lot of outs.
And which do you think is actually

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more important finding being able to find
the edge or being able to get actually

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get the money down. Well,
you know my answer to that, Richard,

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because this is something I learned from
gambling with an edge for years.

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Because you're you're the guy that I
think put this into everyone's consciousness the most

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over the years. Has been uh, you know, you're old saying of

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it's the gold mine that nobody's figured
out how to get the gold out of

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yet, or you know, you
can have the science of something, but

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the art of it is trying to
get the money down. So absolutely getting

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the money down is big and just
like a card counter. They don't ever

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just play at one casino. That's
no way to have a career or even

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a side hustle. As a card
counter. You need to go around and

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find where the games are, find
the better games. Just like a sports

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books sports better you need to be
able to shop around find the ideal line.

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We talk about the landmark book The
Logic of Sports Betting by Ed Miller

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and Matt David l And what they
kind of put in everybody's head with that

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book was this idea of synthetic hold, where your disadvantage against the sports book

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is only as great as the best
line at multiple different sports books. And

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so if you have one shop that
has seven mins one ten and you have

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another shop that has plus seven minus
one oh five, well then you've already

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kind of lowered the synthetic hold because
you're not betting into a four and a

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half percent disavanta. You're betting into
more like a like a three point two

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percent disadvantage. And if you get
enough sports books and you shop enough lines,

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you can find that synthetic hole gets
lower and lower. Look, we're

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into baseball season now, and baseball
is probably the king sport of synthetic hole

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being low. You can shop around
and you can basically find no more than

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a one percent disadvantage when it comes
to betting baseball based on the best line

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of l but multiple books now you're
still betting into a disadvantage, which for

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many of your listeners is not something
they kurt want to do. But when

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you have that many different options,
you sometimes have a synthetic edge, a

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synthetic house edge that goes against the
casino and as an advantage for the player,

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and you can get into arbitrage betting
that way, and you can get

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into situations where you have the edge
over multiple books and zero risk. There's

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a lot of betters that love that, and yeah, getting the money down

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is the hardest part. But if
you can kind of get this large stable

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of sports books that you can play
at, maybe you're in a good state

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for sports betting, like Colorado in
New Jersey and some others Ohios a kind

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of an up and coming state.
You have a lot of options. And

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then if you don't have a lot
of options, well you always have friends,

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right, and maybe you're friends that
are willing to put a bet down

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for you at a sports book that
they have access to and you kind of

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work as a team that way,
a little bit of a division of labor,

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right. You come up with the
plays use maybe using a site like

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unabated, and you send them out
to your friends and they get the bets

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down, and you know, you
kind of group all your funds together and

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and pretty soon you find that you
know, you're a you're a pretty good

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little mini syndicate there attacking sports betting. How do you see sports betting in

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five years or ten years from now? Uh, you know, that's that's

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a big question that I think a
lot of people are trying to approach,

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both people in the industry as well
as advantage players who want to know what's

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the next wave. You know,
I've talked about that in the past.

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It's like you always need to be
a little at what's coming next when it

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comes to any form of advantage play. And so if you're able to have

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a crystal ball and you don't want
to use it to find out who's going

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to win the World Series this year, but you want to use it for

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you know, where is this industry
headed? You kind of have to look

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at what we've seen in other countries
that are a little bit further along the

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evolutionary scale than the United States is, and what we've seen is that sports

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betting tends to give way to fewer
operators. You know, I think there's

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going to be more consolidation as some
of the smaller operators just don't see the

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profit in the relatively low margin of
sports betting. And we've seen that sports

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book operators tend to, because of
that low margin, tend to dream up

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ways to get more of your money. So they're dreaming of things like the

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single game parlay, where you know, the the edge is significantly higher,

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or they want to talk you into
playing microbetting where you're betting on like at

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batter even each pitch of a baseball
game, each drive of a football game,

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and they tend to pack a lot
more theoretical hold into those markets.

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But the ultimate goal of any sports
book operator in the United States right now

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is to get you towards their forthcoming
internet casino. And many of you that

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are listening to this right now in
the United States, you're like, well,

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my States has sports betting, but
they don't have internet casinos. Trust

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me, they will, they absolutely
will. That's the end game here of

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all of this push towards legal legalization
sports betting. They want to get to

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the point where people are going to
be using their internet casino. And why

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is because the frequency of betting in
an internet casino is so much higher than

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sports betting. You can make a
bet on a football game, and you

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could sit down and watch that football
game and you have your nice little sweat

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there for three hours. Whereas you
sit down at a slot machine and you

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make a bet, you're still not
sitting there enjoying the machine. Three hours

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00:16:59.679 --> 00:17:03.360
later. Your spin was done in
six seconds, and you can make ten

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00:17:03.360 --> 00:17:07.000
of those bets in a minute,
and you can make you six hundred bets

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in an hour, and that's far
more advantageous for the casino, you know,

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for the house to take your money
from you by having you bet into

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these markets again and again and again
more frequently. So they want to kind

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of get us to the point where
we're playing in their internet casinos. Now,

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do internet casinos offer any edge for
the advantage player, It's yet to

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be seen. Like we know,
there's promotions and bonuses. We saw that

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with the sports betting boom over the
past five years or so. Look,

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I remember coming on gambling with an
edge and talking about all of the opportunities

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that are out there for betters to
maybe fly to New Jersey and sign up

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00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:48.839
for all these accounts and maybe make
six to eight thousand dollars in an afternoon

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just going through all these promotions and
bonuses. Those opportunities are gone that you

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know, New Jersey is a very
saturated state. You can still find some

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edges as new states pop up.
We saw Massachusetts earlier in March, we

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saw Ohio in January, but they're
not nearly as strong as they used to

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be. And internet casinos they're going
to be a certain wave of that.

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But for the most part, you
already signed up for their sports book.

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They already have your name, they
already have your information. They don't need

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to entice you with a bonus,
so they don't have as many people that

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00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:30.000
need the brand awareness. In terms
of ap plays for casinos internet casinos,

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there's going to be some of the
same plays that are available to the slot

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00:18:33.680 --> 00:18:37.640
hustlers that are out there. Some
of the same slot plays are going to

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be there. Some of them won't
be there, but some of them will.

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There's going to be progressives and things
like that. One of the things

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that I think I've found most refreshing
about internet casinos in relation to land based

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casinos is they all run on basically
the same part sheet. They all have

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the same probabilities, and they broadcast
not broadcasts. They spell out those probabilities

258
00:19:00.400 --> 00:19:04.359
in the help screens. So you
can find a slot machine where the average

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00:19:04.400 --> 00:19:10.160
return, the average theoretical return is
ninety six point seven percent, and it'll

260
00:19:10.200 --> 00:19:12.440
say that right on the instruction screen. This game returns ninety six point seven

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percent over time. So those of
you who want to kind of figure out

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how to find an edge at online
slot machines, you can go ahead and

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try to find that when they come
to your area or you go to an

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area that has them. There's not
a lot of edges out there for online

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00:19:29.519 --> 00:19:32.319
casinos, but I think there will
be some, and there will be many

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who who profit from it. Yeah. Boy, there's a lot a lot

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to unpack there. But first I'd
like to say that when you were talking

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about how the sports books want to
push you to, you know, bet

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on every down in football or whatever, you know, there was this big

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problem of you try to make those
in game bets and you get the spinning

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wheel and then the bet doesn't go
through unless you've already lost that kind of

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thing I mean is that's still a
big problem, and how are people going

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to be able to bet that frequently
if if that continues to be a problem.

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So we do still have that certain
amount of lag time that favors the

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operator, it doesn't favor the better. That's sort of that free role against

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the better. Now, we've had
some advances over the years. Some of

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the first advances have been in some
of the operators. They they now are

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00:20:33.960 --> 00:20:37.000
trying to be a little bit more
agile with that betting process. You know,

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00:20:37.039 --> 00:20:41.920
you had Alex Kane from sport Trade
on not too long ago and he

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00:20:41.960 --> 00:20:45.400
talked about how sport Trade has kind
of taken away that spinning wheel, and

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00:20:45.440 --> 00:20:48.480
it's yes, it's an instantaneous you
know, how much money is available to

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you to bet into. You can
bet rapidly. There's far less friction in

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00:20:53.400 --> 00:20:56.759
that market. You get in and
out of a position very easily. I

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use sport Trade. I love sport
Trade. It's very it's a very good

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product. In fact, a lot
of my action these days are on the

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00:21:03.400 --> 00:21:07.960
exchanges here in New Jersey. But
how are they going to kind of make

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it so that that's a little bit
more available to the general public. Well,

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00:21:11.920 --> 00:21:15.960
there's this company called simple Bet and
they have been the pioneers in microbetting.

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Microbetting is betting on the smallest details
in sporting events, such as,

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00:21:22.480 --> 00:21:26.039
you know, will this player have
a strikeout, a walk, a hit,

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00:21:26.559 --> 00:21:29.839
or make an out when they come
up the bat in this inning.

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00:21:30.400 --> 00:21:34.279
And it's not as much rapid in
terms of like the batters up to bat

293
00:21:34.599 --> 00:21:37.559
and you make this bet. It's
sort of like you make this bet because

294
00:21:37.559 --> 00:21:41.720
they are the third batter do up
in this inning, and you can make

295
00:21:41.759 --> 00:21:45.960
it sort of in advance, so
it's not as instantaneous as you might think

296
00:21:47.000 --> 00:21:51.240
when it comes to microbetting. But
we're going to get there. And what

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00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:56.759
will be the driving catalyst of all
of that is advances in broadcasting technology and

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00:21:56.799 --> 00:22:02.359
we're starting to see that. We're
starting to see they're coming up with ways

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00:22:02.400 --> 00:22:07.039
to make less and less latency in
the broadcast of sporting events. And when

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that becomes available to both the operator
and the better, that'll be a good

301
00:22:11.960 --> 00:22:15.240
thing. If that is something that
is only available to the operator, that's

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00:22:15.240 --> 00:22:18.559
a bad thing. The better is
at a disadvantage. And what we're seeing

303
00:22:18.559 --> 00:22:22.519
with a lot of these streaming services
out there is a better that's watching a

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00:22:22.599 --> 00:22:26.559
game on YouTube or watching a game
on some kind of streaming service like MLB

305
00:22:26.720 --> 00:22:32.119
dot tv. You are a good
minute and a half behind what's actually happening,

306
00:22:32.640 --> 00:22:37.920
and the operators have access to the
fastest feeds from sport Radar or from

307
00:22:37.000 --> 00:22:42.079
Betting Is though, the two companies
that handle most of the major sports leagues

308
00:22:42.720 --> 00:22:48.279
and their live betting data, and
they have the fastest feed, you don't

309
00:22:48.319 --> 00:22:52.079
have the fastest feed. There's an
inequality there. Look at un Abated,

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00:22:52.119 --> 00:22:56.599
we actually contracted with sport Radar to
get the fastest feed we could, and

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00:22:56.720 --> 00:22:59.799
we're pretty fast, like we're ahead
of broadcast television when it comes to this

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00:23:00.039 --> 00:23:03.000
doors for like the NBA, But
we're still not ahead of the sports books

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because the sports books have access to
it and even faster fee that we can't

314
00:23:07.799 --> 00:23:11.319
as a company access. So there's
always going to be an unlevel playing field

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00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:15.200
until we get to the point where
there is full zero latency, and we're

316
00:23:15.319 --> 00:23:21.039
very close to zero latency and the
betters and the bookies can be on the

317
00:23:21.079 --> 00:23:25.519
same playing field. But I don't
know that the bookies are going to want

318
00:23:25.519 --> 00:23:27.079
that because that's just too much of
a risk to them, and then they're

319
00:23:27.079 --> 00:23:30.319
going to start to build in the
little delays like they have now the spinning

320
00:23:30.319 --> 00:23:33.440
wheels. So I don't know that
it will ever be perfect, but we're

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00:23:33.480 --> 00:23:37.359
getting closer to perfect than we have
in the past. I just want to

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00:23:37.400 --> 00:23:41.799
point out too that, sorry,
Bob, I keep cutting you off,

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00:23:41.839 --> 00:23:51.799
but when you're talking talking about adding
these all these different kind of bets,

324
00:23:51.839 --> 00:23:56.559
this is a tremendous opportunity for players, just like for the card counters and

325
00:23:56.559 --> 00:24:03.000
the blackjack players when they start than
adding all of these different carnival games.

326
00:24:03.160 --> 00:24:10.559
Every time they add something or side
bets, every time they add something new,

327
00:24:10.839 --> 00:24:17.400
it's an opportunity for them to screw
up or to not realize that they

328
00:24:17.440 --> 00:24:22.160
haven't fully analyzed what it is they're
doing and that you may find vulnerability.

329
00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:27.119
So absolutely, the more they throw
out there, the better it is for

330
00:24:27.200 --> 00:24:30.720
the players, because if there is
no edge, well then you just don't

331
00:24:30.759 --> 00:24:34.039
have to bet on those things.
Yeah, absolutely, Richard. We're not

332
00:24:34.119 --> 00:24:37.559
on video right now, but I
was nodding my head. I was kind

333
00:24:37.559 --> 00:24:42.680
of pumping my fist because that is
exactly what any advantage player should welcome is

334
00:24:44.279 --> 00:24:48.559
the proliferation of this industry because they
trust me, they're going to step in

335
00:24:48.599 --> 00:24:52.119
it, like they just can't help
themselves. They're going to make mistakes.

336
00:24:52.359 --> 00:24:55.759
Trust me. I know of plenty
of mistakes that are out there that you

337
00:24:55.759 --> 00:25:00.200
know, I probably don't want to
share because I can't believe how dumb they

338
00:25:00.200 --> 00:25:03.880
are, Like they just there's too
much surface area for them to defend.

339
00:25:03.279 --> 00:25:08.920
And the skill level on the operator
side in sports betting is not as strong

340
00:25:08.960 --> 00:25:15.000
as the skill level on the player
side. And I don't think that I

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00:25:15.000 --> 00:25:18.440
don't think we're going to reach the
kind of like a uniform distribution of skill

342
00:25:18.519 --> 00:25:22.680
level for quite a while because there's
just very few people that have in the

343
00:25:22.799 --> 00:25:27.319
US at least that have experience in
being a really good bookmaker. And this

344
00:25:27.400 --> 00:25:33.079
industry doesn't seem to like want to
pay to people what they're worth, and

345
00:25:33.119 --> 00:25:37.000
they can make far more money on
the player side and just you know,

346
00:25:37.079 --> 00:25:41.440
pick off the edges in whatever way
they want to. And that's great for

347
00:25:41.480 --> 00:25:45.240
any aspiring advantage player to continue to
find new edges in sports betting. All

348
00:25:45.319 --> 00:25:48.319
right, I'm going to stick in
a quick question before Richard was so root

349
00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:55.839
it cuts me off again. You
mentioned you mentioned casinos want to get you

350
00:25:55.960 --> 00:26:03.000
onto their online apps. Well,
in many states you have a bunch of

351
00:26:03.079 --> 00:26:08.599
bouts, whether it will just say
Caesar's, MGM Van Duel and among others,

352
00:26:08.640 --> 00:26:15.119
and on sites like unabated, they
will tell you what the current price

353
00:26:15.319 --> 00:26:22.880
is on each of those sites,
and the sites are probably eighty percent identical

354
00:26:22.920 --> 00:26:26.519
at any given time. But Raftkings
is going to be better in one direction

355
00:26:26.839 --> 00:26:36.119
on something and better at something else. The players can pick and choose whereas

356
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:41.759
using the online, whereas they couldn't
do that so easily when they had to

357
00:26:41.799 --> 00:26:48.559
physically go to the sports books to
place the bets. And because it's now,

358
00:26:48.559 --> 00:26:56.759
this is a huge advantage for the
players and a disadvantage for casinos in

359
00:26:56.799 --> 00:27:00.880
the online. You agree with this, Oh, sure, absolutely, it's

360
00:27:02.000 --> 00:27:07.559
it's definitely a huge advantage line shopping
compared to what you used to have to

361
00:27:07.599 --> 00:27:11.759
do. Is I remember my earliest
days going to Las Vegas and trying to

362
00:27:11.799 --> 00:27:17.000
do a little bit of line shopping. And I think I would maybe go

363
00:27:17.039 --> 00:27:19.960
across like I usually would stay at
Center Strip area there and maybe I'd get

364
00:27:21.000 --> 00:27:25.400
to the Imperial Palace and then maybe
I would get too over to Caesar's and

365
00:27:25.440 --> 00:27:26.799
then I would be like I just
walked like two miles. I'm done,

366
00:27:27.039 --> 00:27:30.559
Like I'll just bet it here,
you know, I don't care. And

367
00:27:30.599 --> 00:27:34.599
with spots betting these days, I
can see what the line is. I

368
00:27:34.640 --> 00:27:37.640
can see not only in the books. I have access to a New Jersey,

369
00:27:37.680 --> 00:27:41.720
I can see offshore, I can
see around the world. I can

370
00:27:41.759 --> 00:27:48.640
see exchanges in Europe, I can
see sports books in Australia. And that

371
00:27:48.680 --> 00:27:51.640
doesn't mean like I need to go
bet there, you know. And I

372
00:27:51.640 --> 00:27:56.440
think that's one of the misguided parts
of regulation in the US is they tend

373
00:27:56.440 --> 00:28:00.160
to say all offshore betting is bad. You know, the bad actor is

374
00:28:00.200 --> 00:28:03.240
offshore. No, that's all part
of the ecosystem, all part of the

375
00:28:03.279 --> 00:28:08.079
economy. Like you don't watch CNBC
and just focus on US stocks. You

376
00:28:08.200 --> 00:28:12.680
focus on what the world is doing. Events overseas impact events in the United

377
00:28:12.680 --> 00:28:18.519
States economy. So it's similar in
sports betting. I want to see what

378
00:28:18.599 --> 00:28:22.039
the line is at Betfair, at
Matchbook, at some of the bigger European

379
00:28:22.119 --> 00:28:27.640
sports books, even on US sports
because sometimes there's an influence there. And

380
00:28:27.839 --> 00:28:32.599
similarly, I want to see what
the line is in Nevada at CERCA because

381
00:28:32.599 --> 00:28:34.960
I don't have circu out here in
New Jersey, but I know Circus really

382
00:28:36.000 --> 00:28:38.240
sharp, and I want to see
what they have as their line and when

383
00:28:38.279 --> 00:28:41.440
their lines are moving, and how
they're moving, and when their limits go

384
00:28:41.559 --> 00:28:45.319
up because they're willing to take more
liquidity on a market because they're more certain

385
00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:49.200
of their number. It's all part
of this market, and I think that's

386
00:28:49.240 --> 00:28:53.119
one thing that advantage players need to
understand when it comes to if they want

387
00:28:53.119 --> 00:28:56.759
to get involved in sports betting,
if they're looking for an edge, even

388
00:28:56.799 --> 00:29:00.079
after gambling with an edge goes off
the air, you need to approach this

389
00:29:00.119 --> 00:29:04.240
as if it's a living, breathing
market and trying to see the intricacies of

390
00:29:04.279 --> 00:29:10.200
how the market moves and reacts.
And baseball is not the same as football,

391
00:29:10.319 --> 00:29:12.559
is not the same as hockey.
All of these markets kind of move

392
00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:15.640
differently. There's different market makers in
each market, and you kind of have

393
00:29:15.680 --> 00:29:18.839
to learn that if you want to
get involved in a certain market, you

394
00:29:18.880 --> 00:29:22.799
don't need to learn the players and
the coaches. You need to learn how

395
00:29:22.799 --> 00:29:26.440
the market moves and what it moves
and reacts to. All right, let's

396
00:29:26.440 --> 00:29:33.400
shift scars scars a little bit.
You've been a listener to gambling with an

397
00:29:33.480 --> 00:29:38.680
edge for a decade or so.
Do you have any favorite memories? You

398
00:29:38.720 --> 00:29:44.359
know, I have a lot of
favorite memories of gambling with an edge because

399
00:29:44.799 --> 00:29:48.160
gambling with edge has been like an
institution for me and for a lot of

400
00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:53.279
advantage players out there. And we
live in an age where there's plenty of

401
00:29:53.279 --> 00:29:56.359
podcasts these days, you like,
look, I even have a podcast.

402
00:29:57.000 --> 00:30:03.599
Everybody's got a podcast these days.
And well, the thing of gambling an

403
00:30:03.640 --> 00:30:07.519
edge was it was always a little
bit different. It was always there was

404
00:30:07.559 --> 00:30:11.519
always something. It wasn't just focused
on card counting, it wasn't just focused

405
00:30:11.559 --> 00:30:15.960
on you know, video poker.
It was everything was covered. And it

406
00:30:17.079 --> 00:30:21.000
really opened my eyes to all the
different things that were out there as an

407
00:30:21.000 --> 00:30:25.920
advantage player. Look, I remember
you talked about a guy that was getting

408
00:30:25.960 --> 00:30:30.519
an edge at scratch cards with lotteries. You know. When I was a

409
00:30:30.519 --> 00:30:33.279
card counter early on, I would
say, you know, if you're playing

410
00:30:33.319 --> 00:30:37.279
scratch cards, man, you gotta
you're dreading into a huge disadvantage. Well,

411
00:30:37.359 --> 00:30:41.519
maybe you are. Maybe there's an
inefficiency in that market, you know,

412
00:30:41.519 --> 00:30:45.640
And and hearing some of the legends
of the industry, of our industry

413
00:30:45.640 --> 00:30:51.000
of advantage play. Hearing them talk
that was a great education to me.

414
00:30:51.759 --> 00:30:53.519
You know, Anthony Curtis, Like, there's just something about the way that

415
00:30:53.559 --> 00:30:57.960
Anthony Curtis talks about things that I
always find appealing, Like I like listening

416
00:30:59.039 --> 00:31:02.559
to the guy. I like even
when I see him in person, like

417
00:31:02.640 --> 00:31:06.680
Blackjack ball and things like that,
I just like hearing him explain something.

418
00:31:06.759 --> 00:31:08.680
He just has a way of talking
that I've tried to adapt and try to

419
00:31:08.680 --> 00:31:12.480
relate to people when you explain things
to them. And you know, some

420
00:31:12.559 --> 00:31:18.519
of the things with Gambling with an
Edge have been they take me back to

421
00:31:18.599 --> 00:31:22.599
a time when I would store up
a lot of episodes because I would have

422
00:31:22.640 --> 00:31:26.559
some travel and I know there's people
listening to this that can relate to this.

423
00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:30.359
You have a long flight coming up, you store up three or four

424
00:31:30.400 --> 00:31:33.720
episodes of Gambling with an Edge to
listen to on the flight, or you

425
00:31:33.799 --> 00:31:37.559
have a long car ride. And
I had this play that I was doing

426
00:31:37.599 --> 00:31:40.759
for a number of years that would
often require about a four and a half

427
00:31:40.799 --> 00:31:45.920
hour drive, and me and my
partners we would always store up Gambling with

428
00:31:45.920 --> 00:31:51.480
an Edge episode to listen to in
the car as we drove between these two

429
00:31:51.599 --> 00:31:56.359
areas that we were making this play
at, and we always had like a

430
00:31:56.440 --> 00:32:00.519
running commentary of the episode as we
go, and to this today, when

431
00:32:00.559 --> 00:32:04.920
I hear certain words or certain phrases, it takes me back to be driving

432
00:32:04.960 --> 00:32:08.240
those roads and listening to it,
and you know, we were laughing or

433
00:32:08.359 --> 00:32:12.359
we were saying like that's a great
comment, or that's that's a dumb comment.

434
00:32:12.559 --> 00:32:14.640
You know, it was. It
was all over the map. So

435
00:32:15.240 --> 00:32:16.400
I think when it comes to gambling
with image, I think one of the

436
00:32:16.480 --> 00:32:21.599
things I'll miss was the variety of
it, and it had a certain structure

437
00:32:21.599 --> 00:32:23.759
to it that was was very unique. And I think Bob, that's a

438
00:32:23.839 --> 00:32:28.119
credit to you and Richard as well, and even to him, Mike Shackelford

439
00:32:28.200 --> 00:32:34.680
before him like it. It was
just a unique way of looking at advantage

440
00:32:34.720 --> 00:32:37.839
play. And uh, you know, I still I will still go back

441
00:32:37.880 --> 00:32:44.200
to some old episodes and he listened
to them. List Bob er session episodes

442
00:32:44.200 --> 00:32:47.599
were always great because there was always
something that maybe I didn't understand about the

443
00:32:47.680 --> 00:32:54.599
legal intricacies that Bob would would explain
well and he'd pound the desk and it

444
00:32:54.640 --> 00:32:59.759
would it would always be a great
listening to anytime he had had things to

445
00:32:59.759 --> 00:33:05.319
say about the legal side of things. Always great for recording him pounding on

446
00:33:05.359 --> 00:33:13.039
the desk, right. Yeah,
he takes the award for the best pounder

447
00:33:13.240 --> 00:33:15.960
on the Gambling with an Edge guest. Yeah, yeah, he's leading that.

448
00:33:16.440 --> 00:33:19.920
You know. I just want to
say, I'm one of the things

449
00:33:20.000 --> 00:33:23.839
I'm proudest of about this show is
that we have had people on the show

450
00:33:24.759 --> 00:33:32.519
talking about ways to beat almost every
possible game you can imagine, and as

451
00:33:32.519 --> 00:33:39.039
he said, from scratch off lottery
tickets to you know, craps roulette,

452
00:33:39.119 --> 00:33:44.559
I mean everything. Um, you
know, ten years ago, if you

453
00:33:44.640 --> 00:33:47.200
had said, uh, yeah,
there's this podcast where they have guys on

454
00:33:47.359 --> 00:33:52.160
who are beating slot machines, I
would have, you know, said that's

455
00:33:52.279 --> 00:33:57.119
ridiculous. But you know, now
that's the up and coming thing. I

456
00:33:57.160 --> 00:34:02.000
would have said it's ridiculous, said
for years in my classes that you're not

457
00:34:02.039 --> 00:34:06.400
going to be slot misses. Now
I spend a lot of time doing it.

458
00:34:07.039 --> 00:34:14.320
And it's as a and it's because, yeah, as a consumer and

459
00:34:14.400 --> 00:34:17.039
Gamily with an Edges. Even though
I'm a host, I still get I

460
00:34:17.079 --> 00:34:22.960
get to listen to what these guys
say and some of which I've applied personally.

461
00:34:22.559 --> 00:34:30.119
And another advantage I had when I
would get the same guy coming back

462
00:34:30.800 --> 00:34:36.440
they year and a half later,
I would frequently go back and listen to

463
00:34:36.559 --> 00:34:45.000
his earlier episode to refresh what we
talked about before and what in mind,

464
00:34:45.039 --> 00:34:50.559
what his individual stick was, and
I would hear things that I had missed

465
00:34:50.599 --> 00:34:53.880
the first time around. And so
if when I only listened to him once,

466
00:34:54.000 --> 00:34:59.400
I don't like watching a movie twice. You see things. If you

467
00:34:59.440 --> 00:35:01.880
watch a movie twice, you see
something different in the second time than you

468
00:35:01.960 --> 00:35:07.199
did in the first time. And
so I frequently did that, and that

469
00:35:07.480 --> 00:35:14.480
helped my personal gambling career absolutely.
I'll add to that you always had a

470
00:35:14.599 --> 00:35:20.280
very wide spectrum of guests. It
wasn't just Blackjack Hall of famers, it

471
00:35:20.320 --> 00:35:23.559
wasn't just known advantage players. Sometimes
it was people that I had never heard

472
00:35:23.599 --> 00:35:30.119
of and I had no idea that
they even existed in the world. And

473
00:35:30.239 --> 00:35:34.599
I've probably made some contact based on
listening to somebody on Gambling with the Edge

474
00:35:34.599 --> 00:35:37.880
and going that's a really smart person. I need to find a way to

475
00:35:37.920 --> 00:35:42.199
get in touch with them and maybe
work with them in the future. It

476
00:35:42.239 --> 00:35:45.159
was a great way to kind of
get your name out there if you were

477
00:35:45.320 --> 00:35:49.000
an advantage player and you know,
there's two sides of that coin. You

478
00:35:49.119 --> 00:35:53.079
sometimes had guests on that's what's the
phrase. But I think Mark Twain is

479
00:35:53.159 --> 00:35:59.159
like, better to be a fool
and not expose yourself by opening your mouth

480
00:35:59.239 --> 00:36:02.719
or something like that. Um.
There we there's many guests that I've gone,

481
00:36:04.079 --> 00:36:07.280
wow, I gotta steer clear of
that guy. Like so it goes,

482
00:36:07.360 --> 00:36:10.239
it goes both ways. Yeah,
they're definitely ye guest who will be

483
00:36:10.320 --> 00:36:17.239
making our farewell tour appearance. Yeah. Yeah, But and that is one

484
00:36:17.239 --> 00:36:22.280
of the criticisms of the show is
that, Yeah, sometimes a guest will

485
00:36:22.280 --> 00:36:25.039
get on and you know, I
mean, we don't know all these people,

486
00:36:25.280 --> 00:36:29.440
right, and and you think they're
going to be a good guest,

487
00:36:29.480 --> 00:36:31.920
and then you get them on and
you're like, oh my god, you

488
00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:37.719
know, um but you know you
still I mean, we have to fill

489
00:36:37.800 --> 00:36:42.800
fifty two weeks a year, so
um And and that has been one of

490
00:36:42.840 --> 00:36:50.360
the struggles in doing the show is
doing that. Um. So yeah,

491
00:36:50.440 --> 00:36:53.079
So we have more questions for Captain
Jack, but first we're going to do

492
00:36:53.559 --> 00:37:00.400
have a commercial break. If you're
serious about card counting, the blackjack apprenticeshipbership

493
00:37:00.519 --> 00:37:04.079
is a great way to learn,
train, network and get the resources you

494
00:37:04.119 --> 00:37:07.519
need to succeed. We've had quite
a few guests on gambling with a nants

495
00:37:07.559 --> 00:37:12.559
who exclusively trained and got their start
through Blackjack Apprenticeship. Check out the website

496
00:37:12.639 --> 00:37:16.639
at Blackjack Apprenticeship dot com. They
have member forums, training software and guides

497
00:37:16.719 --> 00:37:21.800
to help you learn. That's Blacksack
Apprenticeship dot com and you will find a

498
00:37:21.840 --> 00:37:24.920
link in the show notes video.
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499
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503
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504
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505
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506
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more to what you're used to.
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507
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to play, and without studying it
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508
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a new strategude for you. Everyone seems

509
00:38:13.519 --> 00:38:16.239
to me talking about sports betting lately. If you're looking to learn more about

510
00:38:16.239 --> 00:38:21.199
how you can profit from the sports
betting gold rush, than unabated dot Com

511
00:38:21.320 --> 00:38:24.599
is a great resource for you.
Founded by frequent gambling with an edge guest,

512
00:38:24.760 --> 00:38:30.199
Captain Jack, who's here with us
today at rufus p Buddy, unabated

513
00:38:30.280 --> 00:38:35.280
dot Com has free educational articles and
odd screens to help you shop launch if

514
00:38:35.280 --> 00:38:40.280
you've got props. Their Essentials tier
has projections and simulators you won't find anywhere

515
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516
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the most advanced real time oddscreen available. Take a trial run with their tools

517
00:38:52.760 --> 00:38:57.199
to decide if unabated dot Com is
right for you. All right, we're

518
00:38:57.239 --> 00:39:01.400
back talking with Captain Jack. Can
I just say what an honor it was

519
00:39:01.440 --> 00:39:07.480
to be a commercial as sponsor on
on your podcast. Trust me, there's

520
00:39:07.519 --> 00:39:10.840
a lot of advantage players out there
that I know try to skip through the

521
00:39:10.840 --> 00:39:15.280
commercials as as efficiently as as possible. So to having been one of the

522
00:39:15.360 --> 00:39:19.559
sponsors that people tried to skip over. Um, it was a little bit

523
00:39:19.559 --> 00:39:22.079
of an honor, but it was
good to be associated with such an institution

524
00:39:22.280 --> 00:39:25.920
as your podcast. You know,
thanks, I appreciate that, and I

525
00:39:27.519 --> 00:39:31.480
also I just want to add that, um uh, you know, for

526
00:39:31.519 --> 00:39:38.039
people who think that, um,
I don't know whatever, there are sponsors

527
00:39:38.079 --> 00:39:43.360
that we turned down, like not
everyone who wanted to be a sponsor,

528
00:39:43.679 --> 00:39:47.559
did we just take so uh.
One to come that comes to mind is

529
00:39:49.360 --> 00:39:53.840
the ball shaver. Bob refused to
shave his balls, um with this thing.

530
00:39:53.880 --> 00:39:57.920
So but anyway, so I just
wanted to point that out, that

531
00:39:57.920 --> 00:40:02.719
that we were selective in who we
accepted as sponsors. Bob refused to talk

532
00:40:02.760 --> 00:40:10.519
about shaving his fault all right now, is anything coming up in the near

533
00:40:10.559 --> 00:40:16.639
future Unabated that our listeners should listen
to, should be aware of. So

534
00:40:16.679 --> 00:40:21.400
I like to say, Unabated it's
a lot like Disneyland, because you go

535
00:40:21.440 --> 00:40:24.159
to Disneyland and there's always something new. Now, there's all the traditional things

536
00:40:24.159 --> 00:40:28.320
that you always want to see when
you go to Disneyland, but there's always

537
00:40:28.320 --> 00:40:32.119
a new ride. And we've Walt
Disney said Disneyland will never be finished.

538
00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:36.239
Well, Unabated will never be finished. We're always adding something new. We're

539
00:40:36.280 --> 00:40:39.519
always kind of finding a better way
to present something or a more efficient way

540
00:40:39.519 --> 00:40:45.920
of presenting it. So we currently
have an array of tools for baseball.

541
00:40:45.960 --> 00:40:51.079
We're getting started into the baseball season
here we have the main push lately have

542
00:40:51.159 --> 00:40:55.360
been towards prop bets. I think
there's more liquidity being offered in prop bets

543
00:40:55.360 --> 00:41:00.519
than ever before in sports betting.
I think NFL props are a viable play

544
00:41:00.599 --> 00:41:05.000
for a lot of advantage players that
may have thought that prop plays are just

545
00:41:05.079 --> 00:41:08.760
too esoteric to be able to last
long at a sports book. I think

546
00:41:08.760 --> 00:41:14.119
you can last betting NFL props.
I think you can last betting some NBA

547
00:41:14.199 --> 00:41:16.599
props, and I'm hoping to see
some of the same thing with baseball props

548
00:41:16.599 --> 00:41:22.760
going forward. So we have a
tool that allows people to simulate player performance

549
00:41:22.800 --> 00:41:30.400
based on the projections they give and
convert a mean projection and average projection into

550
00:41:30.440 --> 00:41:34.719
a median projection, because sports books
put out a line based on the median

551
00:41:34.800 --> 00:41:37.840
line, not based on the mean. And that's an important part that I

552
00:41:37.880 --> 00:41:42.440
think a lot of people never really
realize when it comes to sports betting,

553
00:41:42.559 --> 00:41:45.719
is you're betting against a medium,
not against a means, so you reach

554
00:41:45.800 --> 00:41:51.920
that medium by running simulations, and
so we have stimulation tools that users can

555
00:41:52.039 --> 00:41:57.320
use. We also have some partial
game derivative calculators coming out to attack not

556
00:41:57.440 --> 00:42:00.719
only first five inning lines, but
first three and first seven inning lines.

557
00:42:00.800 --> 00:42:05.679
That's something that some of these bigger, newer sports books are putting out there,

558
00:42:05.679 --> 00:42:09.679
and it kind of lends to Richard's
comment earlier about they keep coming out

559
00:42:09.719 --> 00:42:13.840
with new stuff and maybe they're making
a mistake. Well, you know,

560
00:42:13.920 --> 00:42:17.159
maybe they're making a mistake in first
three inning lines or first seven inning lines.

561
00:42:19.119 --> 00:42:22.159
So we're going to have that in
addition to the first five inning lines

562
00:42:22.719 --> 00:42:24.719
that some sports books have out there. Most sports books have first five,

563
00:42:25.159 --> 00:42:29.920
some have first three and first seven. And I'll give a point here to

564
00:42:30.000 --> 00:42:35.239
this is how edges show up is
member as we're coming out of COVID,

565
00:42:36.079 --> 00:42:39.599
the Major League Baseball started doing seven
inning games with their double headers, So

566
00:42:39.679 --> 00:42:43.719
if you had a double header,
it was two seven inning games. Well,

567
00:42:43.760 --> 00:42:47.079
there was a sports book I knew
that had lines on the first three

568
00:42:47.119 --> 00:42:53.280
innings of a game, and they
reached that line by basically dividing the total

569
00:42:53.480 --> 00:42:59.199
or the side by three. So
if the game total was nine, they'd

570
00:42:59.239 --> 00:43:02.280
make the first three inning line to
be three. Well, when you had

571
00:43:02.320 --> 00:43:07.800
a seven inning double header, they
divided that number that total by three.

572
00:43:08.360 --> 00:43:12.599
So you can see you quickly,
like you might have been a normal mine

573
00:43:12.639 --> 00:43:15.119
inning game, you might have like
over under three. Well they were making

574
00:43:15.320 --> 00:43:19.159
with a seven inning game and a
total being more like six or seven,

575
00:43:19.480 --> 00:43:22.760
they were making like over under one
and a half for the first three innings,

576
00:43:22.599 --> 00:43:25.400
and they didn't realize it for the
longest time. Like this went on

577
00:43:25.480 --> 00:43:30.280
for months and months and months where
they just didn't realize that they had that

578
00:43:30.079 --> 00:43:35.239
blind spot in how they were creating
their lines, you know, And it

579
00:43:35.239 --> 00:43:37.039
goes back to that, well,
what's the art of getting the money down?

580
00:43:37.440 --> 00:43:40.199
Well, sometimes the art of getting
money down is giving them the best

581
00:43:40.239 --> 00:43:43.760
in a way that they want to
see it. And sports books love to

582
00:43:43.800 --> 00:43:47.519
see parlays. So I was going
through and I was parlaying these anytime that

583
00:43:47.559 --> 00:43:52.599
there was multiple double headers to be
had, or even parlaying both games with

584
00:43:52.679 --> 00:43:55.800
the double header to have the over
one and a half on the first three

585
00:43:55.800 --> 00:44:00.639
innings of both of the double header
games, things like that. So that's

586
00:44:00.719 --> 00:44:04.079
just an example of like there's always
going to be blind spots out there,

587
00:44:04.119 --> 00:44:07.199
you just have to keep your eyes
open to find them. But usually those

588
00:44:07.199 --> 00:44:13.239
blind spots are not going to be
in the total of in you know,

589
00:44:13.440 --> 00:44:19.159
NFL or MLB. It's not just
going to be betting aside, right,

590
00:44:19.199 --> 00:44:22.239
but it could be in some derivative
markets, like alternate lines. And that's

591
00:44:22.920 --> 00:44:27.079
one of the first ones we created
at Debated was to be able to price

592
00:44:27.119 --> 00:44:30.639
out what an alternate line should be. So if the game line in an

593
00:44:30.679 --> 00:44:36.280
NFL game is six, well,
what about if you're able to find minus

594
00:44:36.320 --> 00:44:37.960
seven, what should that be priced
at? Or what if you find an

595
00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:42.519
alternate line like minus eight and a
half or minus ten and a half,

596
00:44:42.599 --> 00:44:45.599
what should be the accurate price of
that? Because that's often where you find

597
00:44:45.679 --> 00:44:50.360
inefficiencies in the market. And then
that Quinta lends to like, okay,

598
00:44:50.360 --> 00:44:54.480
well, you can use these alternate
line calculators to calculate what optimal teaser prices

599
00:44:54.519 --> 00:44:59.480
should be and other kind of promotional
things where maybe they're like, you know,

600
00:44:59.559 --> 00:45:04.840
add three points on each team's score
this week, and here you make

601
00:45:04.880 --> 00:45:07.599
this parlay out of it, and
you can find out how much that should

602
00:45:07.639 --> 00:45:10.000
be priced at. All these tools
that allow users to say, Okay,

603
00:45:10.280 --> 00:45:15.039
I have a giant sandbox here and
they're they're they're offering me this bet.

604
00:45:15.159 --> 00:45:20.559
I can kind of construct in this
sandbox how I need to approach this bet,

605
00:45:20.639 --> 00:45:23.199
what the math is behind it,
without unabated saying oh, hey,

606
00:45:23.199 --> 00:45:25.960
look right here, this is where
you have an edge. By doing this,

607
00:45:27.599 --> 00:45:30.719
you can kind of find your edge
yourself. You can teach the person

608
00:45:30.760 --> 00:45:35.159
to fish rather than just feed them
a fish. Yeah, I was.

609
00:45:36.599 --> 00:45:40.679
I enjoy one of the things I
just had figured out so much. What

610
00:45:40.719 --> 00:45:47.880
you just said was you found this
edge and so you parlayed it two edges

611
00:45:47.960 --> 00:45:53.400
together, partly to the sguise that
that's where the edge was. Just hit

612
00:45:53.599 --> 00:45:59.119
each of the edges individually, it
would be a lot clear to the sports

613
00:45:59.159 --> 00:46:04.440
book exactly where your edge was.
But when you're parlaying it for aren't thing

614
00:46:04.480 --> 00:46:10.960
you hit less often but a bigger
amounts. But if this guy's feature and

615
00:46:13.559 --> 00:46:19.079
video poker players need you to disguise
themselves all the time. And that was

616
00:46:19.119 --> 00:46:23.199
an area that I didn't realize that
sports betters did. Yeah. Absolutely,

617
00:46:23.239 --> 00:46:28.920
because look, when you are betting
an edge and you are kind of identified

618
00:46:28.960 --> 00:46:31.440
as a sharp better, they're gonna
say, like Hey, what is this

619
00:46:31.480 --> 00:46:37.079
guy doing? You know what if
Richard in your book Emily Wizard's still one

620
00:46:37.079 --> 00:46:39.559
of my favorite books. You mentioned
you were talking. I was in the

621
00:46:39.679 --> 00:46:43.719
I think the Doyle Brunson part of
the book, and I think you asked

622
00:46:43.760 --> 00:46:45.440
him, do you ever do anything
else like card counting or something like that?

623
00:46:45.480 --> 00:46:49.880
And Doyle's like, well, if
the casino where to see me at

624
00:46:49.880 --> 00:46:52.199
a blackjack table, they're gonna say, you know, what's what's Dolly doing

625
00:46:52.239 --> 00:46:55.239
at the blackjack table? He must
have an edge at the blackjack table?

626
00:46:55.280 --> 00:46:59.480
What do we got going on there? You know? Similarly, like you

627
00:46:59.519 --> 00:47:04.559
know, if somebody he knew who
Richard Munchkin was and saw him doing this

628
00:47:04.639 --> 00:47:06.880
at a casino, they go,
well, he clearly has an edge.

629
00:47:06.880 --> 00:47:08.920
He wouldn't play a game that doesn't
have an edge. So sometimes you need

630
00:47:08.960 --> 00:47:13.039
to disguise who you are to the
casino, even when they don't see you,

631
00:47:13.159 --> 00:47:15.400
even like in a sports book operator
online, they just don't they don't

632
00:47:15.440 --> 00:47:19.400
see you. They just they just
see the name, and you know,

633
00:47:19.440 --> 00:47:22.400
you kind of throw them off the
scent. And maybe maybe that means you're

634
00:47:22.400 --> 00:47:24.440
making a lot of parlays in your
first ten twenty bets at a at a

635
00:47:24.480 --> 00:47:29.400
sports book. Ela who Foystel mentioned
that when he was on your show a

636
00:47:29.400 --> 00:47:34.239
while back. H you know,
maybe you're using look parlays increased variants,

637
00:47:34.320 --> 00:47:38.679
right, But round robins are a
very popular way to do parley bets,

638
00:47:38.719 --> 00:47:45.039
and they actually reduce variants of parlay
bets because they basically take all the permutations

639
00:47:45.119 --> 00:47:49.840
of a parlay between multiple teams.
And so sports book see somebody making a

640
00:47:49.960 --> 00:47:52.639
round robin bet and they go,
ah, this guy's just he's like an

641
00:47:52.639 --> 00:47:57.239
action junkie. He's just looking for
action and all these different parlay options.

642
00:47:58.199 --> 00:48:01.239
And sometimes like that's actually good the
advantage player because you're making the parlay bet,

643
00:48:01.239 --> 00:48:06.239
but you're also lowering your variant.
So sometimes round robins are a good

644
00:48:06.280 --> 00:48:09.159
way to approach it that looks square, but you're actually being sharp. Many

645
00:48:09.159 --> 00:48:14.239
different ways that you can be in
a sports book finding your bets and still

646
00:48:14.280 --> 00:48:17.480
come across as somebody who doesn't have
an edge. I want to make two

647
00:48:17.519 --> 00:48:27.920
points. One is that variance is
really good for the players. And to

648
00:48:28.000 --> 00:48:31.800
give you an example from video poker, there are people who if they hit

649
00:48:31.840 --> 00:48:37.440
a twelve hundred and fifty dollars jack
Pott. They will hit the double up

650
00:48:37.480 --> 00:48:44.760
feature because it means that their expectation
is exactly the same. But half the

651
00:48:44.840 --> 00:48:50.159
time they're only getting half as many
W two gs. So yes, it

652
00:48:50.199 --> 00:48:53.119
means that you may lose that twelve
hundred and fifty dollars half the time,

653
00:48:53.599 --> 00:48:58.159
but you know the other half you're
going to get twenty five hundreds, but

654
00:48:58.239 --> 00:49:01.559
you've made you've gotten one less W
two G out of it, which eats

655
00:49:01.639 --> 00:49:07.960
up your time sitting there at the
machine. Also, it's much more likely

656
00:49:07.519 --> 00:49:12.400
for you too, for you to
look like a loser. Right, It's

657
00:49:12.519 --> 00:49:16.880
it's much better to have a player
that, um, you know, loses

658
00:49:16.960 --> 00:49:20.719
small, small, small, small, small, and then one day he

659
00:49:20.840 --> 00:49:25.159
hits, you know, twenty thousand
dollars on some being hit that looks like

660
00:49:25.199 --> 00:49:30.000
a degenerate gambler to the to the
casino. Um. The other thing is,

661
00:49:30.519 --> 00:49:35.559
if your edge is big enough,
then there are times where you could

662
00:49:35.559 --> 00:49:40.760
make parlays on things that where you
have your big edge, but the other

663
00:49:42.239 --> 00:49:45.960
the other legs of the parlay maybe
don't even have an edge at all.

664
00:49:46.719 --> 00:49:51.559
But your edge is so big on
the one that you're trying to disguise that

665
00:49:51.679 --> 00:49:57.559
it's okay to take that, even
if it's small negative on those things to

666
00:49:57.760 --> 00:50:00.840
hide what it is you're doing up. And I know some people agree.

667
00:50:02.159 --> 00:50:07.800
Some people would just like hate the
idea of you know, doing anything negative.

668
00:50:08.599 --> 00:50:14.760
You know, but if you have
something that's really really strong, well

669
00:50:14.880 --> 00:50:19.000
it's okay to give away some money
in what I would call advertising, like

670
00:50:19.000 --> 00:50:22.559
like for example, you know,
you tip a lot when you have a

671
00:50:22.599 --> 00:50:27.159
really good hole card game. You
can afford it, and you know it

672
00:50:27.320 --> 00:50:35.400
helps. Speaking of tipping the play
that Richard mentioned of doubling up, when

673
00:50:35.400 --> 00:50:40.360
you get a twelve hundred and fifty
dollars, you're only tipping half the time.

674
00:50:42.039 --> 00:50:46.800
So even if it's the same ev
on the play tip on every w

675
00:50:46.920 --> 00:50:52.920
TG, you're only tipping half the
time. And so for most people,

676
00:50:52.920 --> 00:50:57.599
a tip on twenty five hundred and
a tip on twelve fifty would be their

677
00:50:57.719 --> 00:51:05.679
same minimal amounts for thing at your
tipping costs in half, which UM definitely

678
00:51:05.760 --> 00:51:12.760
positive. Yeah, So we're getting
close to the end of our hour.

679
00:51:14.800 --> 00:51:19.840
Any if this is going to be
likely your last trip on gambling with an

680
00:51:19.920 --> 00:51:22.719
Edge? Do you have any last
words for our listeners? I, you

681
00:51:22.719 --> 00:51:27.039
know, I just I just want
to say thank you. Like I mentioned,

682
00:51:27.079 --> 00:51:30.960
you have been very influential in the
my journey as an advantage player,

683
00:51:31.199 --> 00:51:36.559
and not just you, Bob,
but the show and the topic of the

684
00:51:36.599 --> 00:51:39.079
show, and how the show has
kind of been there week after week over

685
00:51:39.119 --> 00:51:46.280
the years. So I think that's
I think that's my biggest takeaway is I

686
00:51:46.320 --> 00:51:51.719
still remember the first time I was
asked to come on, I probably spent

687
00:51:52.519 --> 00:51:57.960
twelve to fifteen hours writing out all
of my replies and then memorizing all my

688
00:51:58.039 --> 00:52:01.920
replies so it wouldn't sound like I
was reading anything. And you know,

689
00:52:01.920 --> 00:52:06.719
I've been on subsequent times since then, and occasionally it'll just be I just

690
00:52:06.800 --> 00:52:07.920
kind of send a couple of notes
saying, oh, here's a topic that

691
00:52:07.960 --> 00:52:12.239
I could talk about, and then
we just wing it. So it's it's

692
00:52:12.280 --> 00:52:15.159
come a long way since the early
days when I had to memorize was like

693
00:52:15.199 --> 00:52:21.320
six pages of type notes that I
wanted to sound authentic without sounding like I

694
00:52:21.320 --> 00:52:24.719
was reading it. Yeah, well, thank you. You've been a great

695
00:52:24.760 --> 00:52:32.599
guest over the years, Yes,
and very great guest, and I'm glad

696
00:52:32.639 --> 00:52:37.599
to have become your friend over the
last five or six seven years. It

697
00:52:37.760 --> 00:52:43.880
was I appreciate that definitely, all
right at the end of the show,

698
00:52:44.159 --> 00:52:51.679
we have recommended Richard, you have
a recommended for our listeners. Yeah.

699
00:52:51.840 --> 00:53:00.800
My recommended this week is a podcast
called People I mostly Admire, and I've

700
00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:07.199
recommended this podcast in the past different
particular guests. It's an interview podcast with

701
00:53:07.519 --> 00:53:12.519
Steve Levitt, who wrote Free Economics, one of the authors of Free Economics.

702
00:53:12.599 --> 00:53:15.719
And this week the guest, I
think it was this week, maybe

703
00:53:15.800 --> 00:53:23.079
last week is doctor Peter Atilla,
and he has done a deep dive into

704
00:53:23.119 --> 00:53:30.039
the study of longevity, and so
the interview is about longevity and the things

705
00:53:30.079 --> 00:53:35.960
you can do to live longer.
And he has a new book out called

706
00:53:36.119 --> 00:53:43.320
Outlive, The Science and Art of
Longevity, and the interview was fascinating,

707
00:53:44.119 --> 00:53:47.119
you know, because Levitt is an
economist, there's a lot of stats in

708
00:53:47.159 --> 00:53:54.639
there as opposed to yeah, I
think you should eat more whatever. So

709
00:53:54.760 --> 00:53:59.639
anyway, I have ordered the book. I haven't read the book yet,

710
00:53:59.639 --> 00:54:05.320
but the podcast was fascinating and if
you're at all interested in health and longevity,

711
00:54:06.119 --> 00:54:08.559
I would recommend you listen to it
and then you will know very quickly

712
00:54:08.559 --> 00:54:14.000
whether it's a book you're interested in
reading. And it's one I certainly am.

713
00:54:14.840 --> 00:54:21.239
Yeah, and I've spoken about longevity
and number of times about my search

714
00:54:21.320 --> 00:54:25.000
for that. And I have a
new author on the subject. Name is

715
00:54:25.280 --> 00:54:34.760
Dan Buttneruet and here he has two
or three books. They all have blue

716
00:54:35.119 --> 00:54:42.199
Zones in the title. And a
blue zone is an area where there's a

717
00:54:42.280 --> 00:54:49.480
high proportion of one hundred year old
plus people living. And there's some in

718
00:54:49.519 --> 00:54:55.400
the Pacific, there's some in California, and there's some in Central America,

719
00:54:55.519 --> 00:55:02.400
and there's some int training area.
And his books discover what they have in

720
00:55:02.480 --> 00:55:10.119
common, how you can apply those
lessons to wherever you're living. And so

721
00:55:10.280 --> 00:55:15.440
I kind of simultaneously reading two of
his books, the Blue Zone Solution and

722
00:55:15.519 --> 00:55:20.880
The Blue Zone r itself, and
then he has another one, one Recipe,

723
00:55:21.400 --> 00:55:23.360
and so I'm not finished with him
yet, but I'm enjoying what I'm

724
00:55:23.360 --> 00:55:30.840
reading. And so it's the same
general subject is what Richard's talking about.

725
00:55:30.639 --> 00:55:34.599
I wasn't going to have it recommended
until he said that, and then it's

726
00:55:34.639 --> 00:55:38.360
gone, oh yeah, well I
can talk about that. So, Captain

727
00:55:38.440 --> 00:55:43.239
Jack, do you have a recommended
for our listeners? I do, But

728
00:55:43.360 --> 00:55:45.920
after this this love fest that I've
had over the past hour with you guys,

729
00:55:46.400 --> 00:55:51.840
it's gonna sound a little repetitive,
but honestly, the archives of Gambling

730
00:55:51.840 --> 00:55:57.599
with an edge like there are some
great things to discover. Any Bobner ses

731
00:55:57.679 --> 00:56:04.239
seen episode, any Russell Fox episode, any Anthony Curtis episode, any Frank

732
00:56:04.320 --> 00:56:07.480
b episode like those are some of
the tops that you know you're going to

733
00:56:07.559 --> 00:56:12.199
get quality information and it's going to
be entertaining. And even in the case

734
00:56:12.239 --> 00:56:16.440
of Russell Box with the tax stuff, it's it's still knowledgeable information. And

735
00:56:16.480 --> 00:56:20.639
the if you go some of the
really the deeper cut that I've found the

736
00:56:21.039 --> 00:56:25.199
most interesting small cap growth when you
guys had him on, that's a hilarious

737
00:56:25.280 --> 00:56:32.400
episode or two. The episode with
Prax and the episodes with Phoenix. Look

738
00:56:32.480 --> 00:56:37.960
those up. I'm not saying they're
going to be the best thing you ever

739
00:56:38.000 --> 00:56:43.719
heard, but they're entertaining. I'll
leave it at that. So I look

740
00:56:43.760 --> 00:56:46.760
forward to going back in the in
the archives from time to time in the

741
00:56:46.800 --> 00:56:51.480
future when I feel like I need
a little Bob and Richard fix and listening

742
00:56:51.519 --> 00:56:54.639
to some of those old episodes.
Well, thank you, this is a

743
00:56:54.719 --> 00:57:01.880
love fish. We're having a nice
little bromance here on our our farewell tour.

744
00:57:02.199 --> 00:57:07.239
Thank you very much. Jack on
good luck with future of unabated,

745
00:57:08.199 --> 00:57:13.360
Thank you very much. Richard Well
had lots of oil flushes. Everybody,

746
00:57:14.159 --> 00:57:15.239
good day,

