WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.440 --> 00:00:06.919 You're listening to a wake up call on demand from kf I Am six forty. 2 00:00:06.919 --> 00:00:17.879 It's time for your morning wake up call. Here's Jason Middleton supporting everybody. 3 00:00:18.480 --> 00:00:28.800 July fifth Day, abtre Dodger flewid game last night late lead got to 4 00:00:28.800 --> 00:00:32.840 see a career first home run for a Dodger and he got a curtain call. 5 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:35.320 It was awesome. Going into the ninth inning, We're up a run, 6 00:00:35.600 --> 00:00:39.119 wound up losing by two. Just a quick note to the home plate 7 00:00:39.240 --> 00:00:42.039 umpire, if you're going to expand your strike zone, do it before the 8 00:00:42.119 --> 00:00:48.719 eighth inning next time. I hope you guys had a great fourth seems the 9 00:00:48.759 --> 00:00:51.479 among the crew here this morning. A lot of food was consumed yesterday. 10 00:00:51.560 --> 00:00:56.359 Collectively, I think we were enough to pretty much cover the population of Altadena. 11 00:00:56.679 --> 00:01:00.759 I think as far as the chloric intake. Got a lot of news 12 00:01:00.799 --> 00:01:03.320 this hour, got some interviews as well. We're going to get caught up 13 00:01:03.359 --> 00:01:07.000 all around the world. A few headlines to get as started. Ten people 14 00:01:07.040 --> 00:01:11.239 are dead thirty eight people wounded in three separate mass shootings in the US over 15 00:01:11.239 --> 00:01:14.640 the Fourth of July holiday. Five killed in Philadelphia, three killed in Fort 16 00:01:14.680 --> 00:01:19.040 Worth, and two shot and killed in Baltimore. A federal judge is restricting 17 00:01:19.079 --> 00:01:23.680 the Biden administration from communicating with social media platforms about their online content. The 18 00:01:23.840 --> 00:01:30.599 ruling yesterday says the FBI and other agencies cannot speak with social media sites for 19 00:01:30.640 --> 00:01:34.079 the purpose of removing, deleting, or suppressing content protected by free speech. 20 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:40.319 And the US and Russia are in talks about a possible prisoner swap involving a 21 00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:44.680 Wall Street Journal reporter. The Kremlin says talks quote must be carried out and 22 00:01:44.760 --> 00:01:49.480 continue in complete silence end quote to be clear. They're on the record saying 23 00:01:49.519 --> 00:01:53.840 that we need to be quiet. Evan Gershkovitz is accused of spying by Russia. 24 00:01:53.000 --> 00:01:56.359 Let's start with some other stories coming out of the KFI twenty four hour 25 00:01:56.439 --> 00:02:00.000 newsroom. We do lead local. An LA City firefighter has been hurt while 26 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:02.879 working to put out a fire at an apartment building near downtown LA. The 27 00:02:02.920 --> 00:02:08.439 department says the firefighter injured a lower extremity extremity last night and was taken to 28 00:02:08.479 --> 00:02:12.800 the hospital. The fire was out in just over half an hour. The 29 00:02:12.919 --> 00:02:17.159 La County Health Department says it now will use death certificates as the primary source 30 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:22.759 of tracking deaths from COVID nineteen. During the pandemic, it was unclear how 31 00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:25.560 to list a death involving the virus and whether people actually died from it or 32 00:02:25.599 --> 00:02:30.479 if it was an underlying condition. The department says medical professionals who certified deaths 33 00:02:30.560 --> 00:02:34.919 must now list COVID nineteen if it had any role in the death, and 34 00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:38.680 if that's not clear, officials say it's okay to list probable or presumed on 35 00:02:38.759 --> 00:02:42.159 the death certificate. Health officials say that the new directive is in line with 36 00:02:42.199 --> 00:02:46.840 the state Department of Health and the CDC. Steve Gregory Camfie News The La 37 00:02:46.879 --> 00:02:51.759 City Fire Department says the fourth of July was a busy one for firefighters. 38 00:02:51.759 --> 00:02:55.000 They got more than two thousand calls for service yesterday, compared to seventeen hundred 39 00:02:55.479 --> 00:03:00.280 on an average weekday. Firefighters put out tree and vehicle fire and several small 40 00:03:00.319 --> 00:03:04.840 brush fires. Four people in South La were hurt when they were hit by 41 00:03:04.840 --> 00:03:08.599 a car while in the street watching fireworks. Officials say flight issues are not 42 00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:14.400 going away as people start to head home from the long Fourth of July weekend. 43 00:03:14.879 --> 00:03:19.520 Flight Aware reported more than four thousand delays and four hundred and fifty cancelations 44 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:23.479 yesterday. Severe weather has also caused disruptions in some places. Experts say travelers 45 00:03:23.479 --> 00:03:30.520 should expect more delays and cancelations today and throughout the busy summer season. In 46 00:03:30.560 --> 00:03:34.080 a couple of minutes, the first topic is going to be the escalating atmosphere 47 00:03:34.120 --> 00:03:38.360 of violence in the Middle East. ABC's Jordana Miller is going to join US 48 00:03:38.360 --> 00:03:42.000 Life for an update first from the Southern California Toyota Dealers Traffic Center. Let's 49 00:03:42.039 --> 00:03:45.919 go places, and let's check the fifteen. It's gonna be a reasy one 50 00:03:45.960 --> 00:03:47.080 for your first thing this morning. As you're making way out of the high 51 00:03:47.120 --> 00:03:51.120 deserts up on side through Hysperia's going to be slow going for you. From 52 00:03:51.120 --> 00:03:53.879 before Main Street, almost as far back as Bear Bounty Roads have been great 53 00:03:53.879 --> 00:03:55.879 towards Joshua Street or the merger of the three ninety five knock On Wood. 54 00:03:55.879 --> 00:03:59.280 For the moment, it's not looking too bound for you. Further southpon on 55 00:03:59.319 --> 00:04:01.479 the fifteen as you make way through the Cahome Pass looks like a good drive 56 00:04:01.520 --> 00:04:05.000 into the Inland Empire. As you make Gray beyond the fifteen of the split 57 00:04:05.039 --> 00:04:09.360 with the two fifteen in Divorre as you head toward the two ten. Got 58 00:04:09.400 --> 00:04:12.840 an updated something slowing you down pound to fifty in your cell phone keyword is 59 00:04:12.919 --> 00:04:16.560 KFI traffic about twenty two minutes for your drive at a downtown riverside right now 60 00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:19.360 westbound side of the ninety one to make way through Anaheim and followed into the 61 00:04:19.360 --> 00:04:23.519 five. Just a smidgeon of slowing for you from about Green River as you 62 00:04:23.560 --> 00:04:26.920 make your way towards the two forty one toll road. Also Orange County looking 63 00:04:26.920 --> 00:04:30.279 good anything that was coming out of the Fourth of July holiday heading into this 64 00:04:30.360 --> 00:04:34.079 morning. Most cal trends projects didn't pick up until past midnight, so they 65 00:04:34.079 --> 00:04:39.480 either didn't really happen or they were wrapped up by now, so not scene 66 00:04:39.519 --> 00:04:41.800 too bad. Up a drive for you there. And also La County is 67 00:04:41.800 --> 00:04:44.759 looking pretty smooth sailing for the moment. Okay, I find the sky helps 68 00:04:44.759 --> 00:04:48.360 get to there faster. I'm Nick polyo'keny and welcome back to wake Up Call. 69 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:53.439 First topic today is a week of violence in the Middle East. Israel 70 00:04:53.519 --> 00:04:58.000 made a military move into an established refugee area on the West Bank Bank over 71 00:04:58.040 --> 00:05:00.480 the weekend. ABC's Jordana Miller is with us for an a big good morning 72 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:04.639 and thank you and welcome, thank you, so good to be with you. 73 00:05:04.720 --> 00:05:11.920 If the Israeli Army wrapped up what it called a counter terrorists operation in 74 00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:17.560 the Janine refugee camp in the disputed West Bank that is a stronghold for Palestinian 75 00:05:17.959 --> 00:05:23.639 militant groups, and essentially Israel decided to go on the offensive and go in 76 00:05:23.680 --> 00:05:28.439 there and instead of doing it a daily or nightly raid, to stay in 77 00:05:28.480 --> 00:05:32.680 there for forty eight hours and to go house by house, a building by 78 00:05:32.720 --> 00:05:40.920 building to try to arrest suspective militants, confiscate weapons, a destroy explosive labs 79 00:05:41.240 --> 00:05:46.160 they found six of them, and really try to root out some of the 80 00:05:46.519 --> 00:05:51.199 what they called terrorist activity in this part of the northern West Bank. It's 81 00:05:51.240 --> 00:05:57.399 a part of the West Bank that is technically under the Palestinian authorities leadership, 82 00:05:57.600 --> 00:06:01.319 but they've been unable or unwilling to go in there and do the test work. 83 00:06:02.160 --> 00:06:08.079 Israelis have been paying the price because over the last about eighteen months there's 84 00:06:08.120 --> 00:06:14.000 been an increasing level of deadly attacks coming from militants who are coming from that 85 00:06:14.240 --> 00:06:17.800 refugee camp. So the violent activity back and forth this week, can you 86 00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:21.959 give us a sense of scale when it comes to that, is this unusual 87 00:06:23.079 --> 00:06:30.199 kind of spike or is this abnormal? I mean, the decision to basically 88 00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:38.519 roll tanks into the refugee camp and bulldoze streets and cut power lines and bring 89 00:06:38.519 --> 00:06:43.519 in two thousand troops is is definitely an escalation. We haven't seen that kind 90 00:06:43.560 --> 00:06:49.000 of wide scale operation in the Janine refugee camp for about two decades since the 91 00:06:49.079 --> 00:06:55.759 last Palestinine uprising or into Fada, So it signals that kind of change in 92 00:06:55.879 --> 00:07:00.040 tactic by the Israelis no doubt, and it left a lot of destruction. 93 00:07:00.720 --> 00:07:06.879 Twelve Palestinians were killed one Israeli soldier. Also more than one hundred Palestinians injured, 94 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:13.000 from what we understand, at least twenty critically injured in this kind of 95 00:07:13.040 --> 00:07:18.600 sustained urban warfare that happened. Now late last night, the Israeli troops started 96 00:07:18.639 --> 00:07:25.279 to withdraw and by daylight there were no troops left there. But residents are 97 00:07:25.319 --> 00:07:29.959 returning and they're finding, you know, it almost looks like an earthquake hit 98 00:07:30.079 --> 00:07:34.600 parts of the refugee camp. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Natagnelle says this is not 99 00:07:34.759 --> 00:07:40.600 a one off, meaning Israel may be changing its tactic here and instead of 100 00:07:40.639 --> 00:07:45.680 doing nightly raids, may decide once a month to come into the Geneine refugee 101 00:07:45.720 --> 00:07:50.879 camp and try to arrest militants. What about any We're speaking with ABC's news 102 00:07:50.879 --> 00:07:56.240 correspondent Dredna Miller about the violence in the Middle East this week, what about 103 00:07:56.279 --> 00:08:00.360 any political signaling on either side. You just mentioned that there may be change 104 00:08:00.360 --> 00:08:05.120 in tactics that was not necessarily overtly stated. Was there any kind of precursor 105 00:08:05.199 --> 00:08:09.319 to this role in by the Israeli military. Well, I think the precursor 106 00:08:09.360 --> 00:08:16.519 has been the months and months of violence that Israel's nightly raids and sometimes daytime 107 00:08:16.600 --> 00:08:22.199 raids had not been able to really stem. I mean, just most recently 108 00:08:22.240 --> 00:08:28.240 there was a shooting attack right by a Jewish settlement, you know, where 109 00:08:28.279 --> 00:08:33.759 a Palestinian open fire and killed four Israelis at a gas station. But we 110 00:08:33.840 --> 00:08:41.320 could rattle off several deadly shooting attacks, and there have been pressure mounting for 111 00:08:41.360 --> 00:08:48.120 a while from the political echelon and within the security establishment individual needed to take 112 00:08:48.159 --> 00:08:54.320 on a kind of wider, more intense military operation to try to root out 113 00:08:54.720 --> 00:09:00.559 some of these militants. Especially since the Palestinian authority right now is in such 114 00:09:00.559 --> 00:09:05.879 a weak position that they are unable or unwilling to do it themselves. So 115 00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:13.919 you know, it's um there were this is definitely it felt like this was 116 00:09:13.039 --> 00:09:18.720 somehow inevitable, given that the violence has been sustained for so long. We 117 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:24.799 had record numbers of deaths on both sides just this year, almost thirty Israelis 118 00:09:24.840 --> 00:09:30.360 on the Palestinian side over one hundred and forty in the different raids that have 119 00:09:30.440 --> 00:09:35.039 been carried out. So, you know, will this solve the problem? 120 00:09:35.159 --> 00:09:39.480 No, it won't. Will it create some deterrence for a short time maybe? 121 00:09:41.000 --> 00:09:45.919 I mean the really this conflict, you know, it needs a political 122 00:09:46.000 --> 00:09:50.000 situation solution, and it needs you know, leaders on both sides to come 123 00:09:50.039 --> 00:09:54.080 back to the peace table and talk and negotiate. But that's not happening. 124 00:09:54.360 --> 00:10:01.840 So in the interim we're seeing all these explosions of violence and band aid efforts 125 00:10:01.879 --> 00:10:07.120 to try to stop it for a short while. Jordanna, thank you for 126 00:10:07.159 --> 00:10:11.039 the update and thank you for your time this morning. Thank you. It 127 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:15.600 was ABC's news correspondent, Jordanna Miller. I'll give you the headline this week 128 00:10:15.720 --> 00:10:18.120 or this morning excuse me. Israel did declare the end of its attack on 129 00:10:18.120 --> 00:10:22.080 a refugee camp in the city of Janine. The raid was Israel's biggest in 130 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:26.519 the West Bank in more than twenty years. Earlier, Palestinian militants fired five 131 00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:31.000 rockets from Gaza towards Israel, and the rockets were intercepted. Israel responded with 132 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:35.879 air strikes of its own on northern Gaza. Let's get back to some of 133 00:10:35.919 --> 00:10:39.200 the stories coming out of the KFI twenty four hour newsroom. A city council 134 00:10:39.200 --> 00:10:43.600 member from the city of San ya Jacinto has been arrested for allegedly assaulting two 135 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:48.559 children. The Riverside County Sheriff's Department says Brian Hawkins was booked Sunday for felony 136 00:10:48.600 --> 00:10:52.279 assault with intent to cause great bodily injury. The department would not offer details, 137 00:10:52.279 --> 00:10:56.279 but did say it was a domestic incident. The city of Santiacinto said 138 00:10:56.320 --> 00:11:01.960 it takes the allegations seriously and will cooperate with the investigation. As of Monday, 139 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:05.039 Hawkins, who was running for Congress, was still in custody. One 140 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:09.639 person has died in a plane crash in Riverside County, not far from the 141 00:11:09.679 --> 00:11:13.679 French Valley. Airport officials say three other people on board yesterday were taken to 142 00:11:13.720 --> 00:11:16.399 the hospital, one of them with serious injuries. The FAA says this single 143 00:11:16.440 --> 00:11:20.960 engine, CESSNA one seven two, crashed shortly after takeoff from the airport. 144 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:26.519 New numbers show the homicide rate in California has dropped. The California Department of 145 00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:30.720 Justice says the rate of homicides in the state went down about five percent from 146 00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:33.840 twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two, but property and violent crimes were both 147 00:11:33.879 --> 00:11:39.000 up last year from twenty twenty one. Of counties with populations greater than one 148 00:11:39.039 --> 00:11:41.960 hundred thousand, Merced County had the highest homicide rate, in Santa Cruz County 149 00:11:43.039 --> 00:11:46.519 had the lowest. An overwhelming majority of homicide victims were women, just above 150 00:11:46.559 --> 00:11:50.639 eighty three percent. The dj says more than half of homicides last year we're 151 00:11:50.639 --> 00:11:56.000 solved. Sandy wells ka FI News. Vladimir Zelensky, Ukraine's president, claimed 152 00:11:56.080 --> 00:12:01.720 Russia had placed objects resembling explosives on the roofs of buildings at the Zaprizia Nuclear 153 00:12:01.759 --> 00:12:07.200 power plant, Europe's biggest. Russia's seized control of the plant in southeastern Ukraine 154 00:12:07.200 --> 00:12:11.879 in February of twenty twenty two. Mister Zelenski says he has discussed Russia's dangerous 155 00:12:11.879 --> 00:12:16.080 provocations at Zaprizzia with the Emmanuel Macron, who which is Francis President, who 156 00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:22.120 agreed to keep the situation under maximum control together. China's restrictions on exports of 157 00:12:22.120 --> 00:12:26.360 two critical chip medals, gallium and Germanium, have sparked concerns of an escalation 158 00:12:26.399 --> 00:12:31.799 in its tech war with America. A Chinese policy advisor told China Daily, 159 00:12:31.879 --> 00:12:35.799 a newspaper that the control the controls were just a start. Now. This 160 00:12:35.919 --> 00:12:39.519 comes just days ahead of a visit by America's Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She's 161 00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:43.600 headed to Beijing. A woman in South Carolina has been killed by an alligator 162 00:12:43.720 --> 00:12:48.080 while walking her dog near a golf course. Some neighbors say, even though 163 00:12:48.120 --> 00:12:50.720 alligators are at regular site, people should not let their guard down. It's 164 00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:54.679 kind of shocking, honestly, I think the alligators sometimes get too comfortable with 165 00:12:54.720 --> 00:13:00.320 the people and vice versa. Officials say the alligator was guarding the six nine 166 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:03.639 year old woman's body when they found her at the edge of a lagoon yesterday. 167 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:07.080 Sheriff's deputies say it took some time, but they removed the alligator and 168 00:13:07.120 --> 00:13:11.919 recovered the body. The dog was found safe. Adele has warned fans not 169 00:13:11.039 --> 00:13:15.480 to throw things on stage, following a recent wave of artists being hit by 170 00:13:15.519 --> 00:13:18.159 objects while performing. A TikTok video shows the singer at one of her Las 171 00:13:18.279 --> 00:13:22.639 Vegas residency shows, asking the crowd if they noticed people appear to be forgetting 172 00:13:22.720 --> 00:13:26.399 concert etiquette. She told fans to stop throwing things, and then joked about 173 00:13:26.440 --> 00:13:31.639 throwing things at the crowd before shooting off a T shirt launcher. Right now, 174 00:13:31.679 --> 00:13:35.919 though, kfi's and KTLA's intrepid tech reporter rich to Moreau is on the 175 00:13:35.919 --> 00:13:39.720 line with us rich host rich on Tech here on KFI Saturday's eleven to two. 176 00:13:41.200 --> 00:13:45.480 He maintains a robust Instagram feed at rich on Tech, and his website 177 00:13:45.519 --> 00:13:48.279 is rich Ontech dot tv. Welcome back, Rich good to hear you. 178 00:13:48.879 --> 00:13:50.759 Hey, good morning to you, Jason, Happy day after. Thank you 179 00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:54.600 very much. I hope you had a great fourth Yeah, it was fun. 180 00:13:54.639 --> 00:13:58.799 It was nice. That's cool, celebrated early. Oh nice. Let's 181 00:13:58.840 --> 00:14:03.240 start with Instagram. Okay, this new app called threads. Do you think 182 00:14:03.279 --> 00:14:05.120 that they'll tell you what. Let's let's tear it up first, say my 183 00:14:05.159 --> 00:14:09.679 follow up, because I'm eager to hear what is threads and what is it 184 00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:11.600 going to compete with? Yeah, so let's just give you the rundown. 185 00:14:11.679 --> 00:14:16.919 Threads is basically Facebook and Instagram's version of Twitter. So we have not seen 186 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:20.919 the app and its entirety just yet. It is scheduled to launch tomorrow morning. 187 00:14:22.799 --> 00:14:26.080 You can search for an invite on your Instagram. If you search the 188 00:14:26.240 --> 00:14:31.440 term threads, it'll get a little ticket. You can tap that ticket set 189 00:14:31.480 --> 00:14:35.279 a reminder to download the app. It's available for iOS first, Android later, 190 00:14:35.559 --> 00:14:37.840 and it's basically Twitter. You get to write posts, you get to 191 00:14:37.879 --> 00:14:46.519 post pictures, people can reply, people can retweet or sorry rethread and yeah, 192 00:14:46.600 --> 00:14:50.799 it's basically Meta's answer to Twitter at a time when some people are disenfranchised 193 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:54.080 with Twitter. Okay, that was my follow up, kind of which is 194 00:14:54.279 --> 00:14:58.879 why would Okay, let's talk about Meta's install base. Is that enough grab 195 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:05.440 alone to make it a Twitter competitor immediately? I think it definitely gives it 196 00:15:05.480 --> 00:15:09.039 a good chance that people will check it out. But I find the irony 197 00:15:09.200 --> 00:15:13.919 very thick because here it is people are looking towards a company that a couple 198 00:15:13.919 --> 00:15:18.639 of years ago they were all hating on for their privacy practices and various other 199 00:15:18.679 --> 00:15:24.360 things, and now they're looking towards towards Meta as being the savior for the 200 00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:30.039 social media kind of landscape. And so I don't know if I want Meta 201 00:15:30.080 --> 00:15:33.519 to have that much power with Facebook, also Instagram and now sort of the 202 00:15:33.559 --> 00:15:37.320 Twitter scape as well, but we'll see. It definitely has a good chance 203 00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:41.440 because it seems like you're going to follow over whatever followers you have on Instagram 204 00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:46.919 will immediately come over to this new app and vice versa, so that gives 205 00:15:46.919 --> 00:15:50.120 it a big user base immediately. Do you think that maybe Meta had this 206 00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:52.320 in the works. Obviously it was in the works, but do you think 207 00:15:52.320 --> 00:15:54.600 they pushed it out a little bit early because of the stuff over the weekend 208 00:15:54.600 --> 00:15:58.600 with the limitations on what you can view on Twitter? Oh? Absolutely, 209 00:15:58.639 --> 00:16:02.679 So I think they were just kind of you know, they knew they needed 210 00:16:02.679 --> 00:16:04.879 this product for the last couple of years, but they just sat there and 211 00:16:04.960 --> 00:16:08.919 waited for an opportunity because they seemed to come up every couple of months with 212 00:16:08.960 --> 00:16:11.320 Elon Musk at the Helm, So they just said, you know what, 213 00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:15.320 We're just gonna wait for the next big opportunity where people are really angry, 214 00:16:15.399 --> 00:16:18.320 and then we'll announce this and then we'll launch it. And of course with 215 00:16:18.399 --> 00:16:21.039 apps, you can update them, you can make them better as time goes 216 00:16:21.080 --> 00:16:22.679 on. So it's not going to be complete from day one, but it's 217 00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:27.159 probably going to be pretty good and it will hopefully get better. Didn't they 218 00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:30.480 try to do something with audio once or twice? I mean, they've rolled 219 00:16:30.480 --> 00:16:34.360 out some stuff before that's been like full of pomp and circumstance and didn't really 220 00:16:34.399 --> 00:16:37.360 deliver. So this might be another hurry up and wait situation. Is that 221 00:16:37.399 --> 00:16:41.679 your take too? Oh, they've tried everything. Anything that has come out, 222 00:16:41.759 --> 00:16:45.000 they have copycat. They have been a copycat me too, me too, 223 00:16:45.120 --> 00:16:48.519 me too? And you know, at the core, really what they're 224 00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:55.679 still successful at is the Facebook feed and Instagram, and Instagram's having some success 225 00:16:55.759 --> 00:16:57.879 with the reels, which is just a rip off of TikTok and of course 226 00:16:57.919 --> 00:17:03.839 Instagram. What Snapchat did with their stories and made that very popular on Instagram, 227 00:17:03.839 --> 00:17:10.119 people probably don't even remember that Snapchat started that that sort of storytelling ability, 228 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:15.000 and now of course we just identify it with us with Instagram. Yeah, 229 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:17.160 so we'll see, We'll see what happens with this. I just don't 230 00:17:17.160 --> 00:17:19.119 see a lot of people saying, oh, yeah, let's make this my 231 00:17:19.160 --> 00:17:22.519 new Twitter. But hey, time will tell, right, And I'm still 232 00:17:22.519 --> 00:17:26.839 watching Blue Sky too. I heard you mentioned that yesterday won't with Wayne Resnick. 233 00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:30.839 Yeah, Facebook does have a serious fomo. Let's move over to Google 234 00:17:32.039 --> 00:17:34.920 and it's privacy policy. It says, what's it saying now, it's going 235 00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:38.440 to scrape even more or less of us? What's happening? Yeah, basically, 236 00:17:38.799 --> 00:17:42.000 Google over the weekend updated its privacy policy to say, you know what, 237 00:17:42.160 --> 00:17:47.680 anything you're right online could be used potentially by Google for any and all 238 00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:52.640 of its AI projects, including bard and anything else that they come up with. 239 00:17:52.799 --> 00:17:56.000 And so I think the bottom line here is that it used to be 240 00:17:56.039 --> 00:18:00.279 when you wrote something online, if you didn't like it later, you could 241 00:18:00.279 --> 00:18:03.759 delete it. And yeah, nothing ever really goes away from the Internet, 242 00:18:03.880 --> 00:18:06.920 but it was a little bit tougher to find and maybe if someone had a 243 00:18:06.960 --> 00:18:11.400 screenshot or a cash of the page, fine, But now the fact that 244 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:15.480 these AI tools are scraping everything twenty four to seven, anything you say online 245 00:18:15.759 --> 00:18:19.680 could potentially go into one of these large language models and It just has a 246 00:18:19.720 --> 00:18:26.039 lot of implications for the way the web exists and also what we do on 247 00:18:26.079 --> 00:18:27.640 there and how long it lasts. Now, when it comes to this the 248 00:18:27.920 --> 00:18:33.160 scraping the AI, the large language models, Europe has traditionally, with GDPR 249 00:18:33.160 --> 00:18:37.960 and others, been ahead of the curve when it comes to privacy things, 250 00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:41.440 because honestly, the US used to do it does innovate these situations first, 251 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:45.079 and then Europe seems to respond. Is this going to be something that the 252 00:18:45.160 --> 00:18:48.880 EU picks up when it comes to Google and its new privacy policy? Oh? 253 00:18:49.000 --> 00:18:55.200 Probably. I mean, the EU is definitely very different than the US 254 00:18:55.200 --> 00:18:57.039 when it comes to all of this stuff on the internet. But I think 255 00:18:57.079 --> 00:19:02.480 California is probably the most closely aligned with the EU when it comes to privacy 256 00:19:02.519 --> 00:19:04.880 online. But you know, the US has always been kind of like, 257 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:08.319 build, build, build, and we'll figure it out later. I think 258 00:19:08.799 --> 00:19:12.440 Washington this time around is saying, let's look at this a little bit closer 259 00:19:12.599 --> 00:19:17.119 the first time around, before it gets too big and before we have to 260 00:19:17.160 --> 00:19:19.720 rewrite the rules and the tech companies have too much power. But at the 261 00:19:19.759 --> 00:19:22.920 same time, you don't want to stifle what can be done with this because 262 00:19:22.920 --> 00:19:26.039 the US wants to be seen as a leader in the world, in the 263 00:19:26.160 --> 00:19:29.839 entire world when it comes to AI, So we don't want to stop the 264 00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:33.799 progress, but we also want to make sure that people are reasonably safe. 265 00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:36.240 Yeah, that's great, that's really good context. I mean, because the 266 00:19:36.240 --> 00:19:38.640 tech sector is having its best year in forty years almost and oh yeah, 267 00:19:38.680 --> 00:19:42.000 and so yeah, we're about to have that conversation about Wall Street. So 268 00:19:42.000 --> 00:19:45.400 I'll just move over to Yahoo real quick, one of the Internet's oldest brands. 269 00:19:45.720 --> 00:19:48.640 I still use Yahoo Finance because I'm old school business, and I find 270 00:19:48.680 --> 00:19:52.880 that they're reporting in their data is pretty solid. But Yahoo's trying to look 271 00:19:52.920 --> 00:19:56.640 for a larger kind of comeback. What's it going to roll out? Well, 272 00:19:56.720 --> 00:20:00.000 yeah, and what you're saying with Yahoo Finance, I think is indicative 273 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:03.279 of a lot They still have a lot of users. And here's the thing. 274 00:20:03.319 --> 00:20:07.880 This is the the article in the Financial Times says that basically Yahoo wants 275 00:20:07.920 --> 00:20:10.839 to eventually IPO again, And I said, wait, what I thought they 276 00:20:10.839 --> 00:20:14.839 were owned by Verizon. Turns out they were spun out of Horizon after they 277 00:20:14.839 --> 00:20:18.279 were purchased a couple of years ago, and so now they are privately held 278 00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:21.240 company. They've got the same guy that I used to work for, Jim 279 00:20:21.319 --> 00:20:23.960 Land's own who used to be in charge of c net and then later CBS 280 00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:27.680 Interactive. So he knows what's going on with these brands. He knows how 281 00:20:27.720 --> 00:20:33.799 to build brands that people really like and in a lot of different ways. 282 00:20:33.799 --> 00:20:36.359 You know, they've got Yahoo Finance, They've got you know, entertainment, 283 00:20:36.400 --> 00:20:40.480 They've got a Tech Crunch as a startup. They even own AOL and so 284 00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:44.000 he's saying, basically, look, we're in a really good position. We 285 00:20:44.079 --> 00:20:47.599 also have AI now on our side, and I think we're ready to kind 286 00:20:47.599 --> 00:20:51.920 of make Yahoo big again. And I kind of believe it because the Internet 287 00:20:52.000 --> 00:20:56.519 has gone through this up and down phase with these big companies like BuzzFeed that 288 00:20:56.640 --> 00:21:00.000 all tried to like, you know, eat everyone's lunch and look what happened. 289 00:21:00.559 --> 00:21:03.480 And so Yahoo's kind of like been around forever and they still have what 290 00:21:03.519 --> 00:21:07.599 they do really well and a lot of traffic. So what can they do 291 00:21:07.640 --> 00:21:10.319 with that? We'll see. Yeah, I agree. I think this is 292 00:21:10.359 --> 00:21:14.200 a really smart move and I'm glad to see them reference it as a as 293 00:21:14.240 --> 00:21:18.359 an IPO because just anecdotally speaking, I've been dealing with Yahoo and a subscription 294 00:21:18.440 --> 00:21:21.480 thing, and it's been pretty stuss And I have to say that what the 295 00:21:21.559 --> 00:21:26.599 FDC is doing with Amazon and Amazon Prime subscriptions, I think that there's a 296 00:21:26.640 --> 00:21:29.519 shadow of that at Yahoo as well that needs to be addressed. Hey, 297 00:21:29.920 --> 00:21:33.440 tough to cancel, yeah, tough to cancel yeah, and tough to actually 298 00:21:33.680 --> 00:21:37.680 get any kind of response at all. Well, it's not what I'm I 299 00:21:37.720 --> 00:21:41.799 feel like this is very indicative of some of these companies that are you know, 300 00:21:41.079 --> 00:21:45.200 and this is something I always recommend when people sign up for something, 301 00:21:45.640 --> 00:21:48.319 before you sign up, because sign up is very very easy. Just see 302 00:21:48.359 --> 00:21:52.279 what it's like to cancel. For instance, I signed up for this service 303 00:21:52.640 --> 00:21:56.119 online, and you know, I said, okay, well you just google 304 00:21:56.200 --> 00:22:00.240 like the name of the service plus cancelation and then you see what people saying 305 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:02.680 about how tough it is to cancel. And that should give you an idea 306 00:22:02.680 --> 00:22:04.519 of do you want to deal with that at some point when it's your turn 307 00:22:04.559 --> 00:22:07.240 to cancel this stuff? And if it's not easy as like one, two, 308 00:22:07.240 --> 00:22:11.680 three click, you know, you should maybe think twice. But I 309 00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:15.599 will tell you one pro tip, Jason chat GPT is your friend for cancelation. 310 00:22:15.839 --> 00:22:19.720 It can craft a really nice letter that you can email to the company 311 00:22:19.759 --> 00:22:23.640 and help you cancel very quickly and easily. God Rich, I tell you 312 00:22:23.680 --> 00:22:26.599 there's always action items when we talked with you. This is fantastic. He 313 00:22:26.920 --> 00:22:30.079 speaking to which before I have to let you go, you mentioned yesterday something 314 00:22:30.079 --> 00:22:33.119 that we talked about a little bit last week. But I want to pull 315 00:22:33.160 --> 00:22:34.480 it back up because it's such a cool app. I hope you don't mind. 316 00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:37.960 It's not on our notes, I know, but it has to do 317 00:22:37.000 --> 00:22:41.200 with the interactive product to interactive tours that you can take where. Yeah. 318 00:22:41.599 --> 00:22:44.559 Yeah, can you tell us a little bit more about that one more time 319 00:22:44.599 --> 00:22:48.000 please? Yeah. Absolutely. This is called voice Map, and I absolutely 320 00:22:48.000 --> 00:22:53.000 love it. It's basically a GPS audio guided app. So you go to 321 00:22:53.039 --> 00:22:56.720 a city, you search for the destination and there's a whole bunch of tours 322 00:22:56.720 --> 00:23:00.279 typically in that city, done by local folks, casters and things like that. 323 00:23:00.880 --> 00:23:03.200 You pay a couple of bucks, you load it up on your phone, 324 00:23:03.240 --> 00:23:07.640 you walk around the city and you follow this map and it tells you 325 00:23:07.680 --> 00:23:11.079 what you're you know, what you're seeing, and it's really really cool. 326 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:12.799 We did it in Austin. I absolutely love it. I'm going to a 327 00:23:12.839 --> 00:23:17.720 couple of countries later this summer, and so I'm definitely going to fire it 328 00:23:17.759 --> 00:23:19.559 up there. And you just feel smart when you take one of these tours, 329 00:23:19.559 --> 00:23:22.240 because yeah, you can walk around by yourself and read the little signs 330 00:23:22.240 --> 00:23:27.039 around town or whatever, but this is really like taking your own personal tour 331 00:23:27.799 --> 00:23:30.119 on your own time. By the way, you can start and finish whenever 332 00:23:30.200 --> 00:23:33.960 you feel like it. Voicemap is the website. Yeah, voicemap dot Ammy. 333 00:23:34.079 --> 00:23:36.839 Thanks a lot for that, Rich, I really appreciate it. And 334 00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:40.279 hopefully if we talk again before you travel, that's great. If not, 335 00:23:40.480 --> 00:23:42.440 have great travels. Okay, yeah, we'll be back. It's it's later, 336 00:23:42.519 --> 00:23:47.240 so I've got it. But yeah, I'm excited. Yeah, right 337 00:23:47.279 --> 00:23:48.319 on. Well, Rich, always a pleasure. Thank you very much. 338 00:23:48.559 --> 00:23:52.680 All right, Jason, take care. It's Rich Dmorrow. He hosts rich 339 00:23:52.720 --> 00:23:55.880 on Tech. You're on KFI. That's Saturday's from eleven am to two pm, 340 00:23:56.079 --> 00:24:00.160 and he maintains a really strong Instagram feed at rich on Tech and his 341 00:24:00.240 --> 00:24:03.039 website is rich on Tech dot tv. Right now, on a wake up 342 00:24:03.039 --> 00:24:07.559 call, we have the President and chief investment Officer at First American Trust, 343 00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:11.359 Jerry Brockman. First American Trust is based in Santa Anna and has several billion 344 00:24:11.359 --> 00:24:15.079 dollars of assets under management. And for this morning, Jerry will help us 345 00:24:15.279 --> 00:24:18.000 tee up the second half of the year on Wall Street and we have to 346 00:24:18.000 --> 00:24:22.240 dig into the FED and how interest rates are playing out in the financial and 347 00:24:22.319 --> 00:24:25.119 investing world. If it's okay with you, I'd like to start with Wall 348 00:24:25.160 --> 00:24:30.279 Street. Looks like the AI rush from this beginning of the year has been 349 00:24:30.440 --> 00:24:33.279 somewhat sustainable for the first six months. What do you think that looks like 350 00:24:33.319 --> 00:24:36.200 for the rest of the year. Yeah, Obviously, when we look back 351 00:24:36.240 --> 00:24:40.359 at the first six months, AI was the dominant theme, and when you 352 00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:45.599 look at the SMP five hundred, the six seven names that have provided all 353 00:24:45.640 --> 00:24:52.319 the outperformance have been AI related. So Microsoft and did the Google, Facebook 354 00:24:52.920 --> 00:24:59.640 and others really are driving that potential success story. I think when we look 355 00:24:59.680 --> 00:25:03.200 at the run that has had, it becomes more difficult to see where it's 356 00:25:03.200 --> 00:25:08.599 going to go forward considering the huge valuation that opportunity has already been provided, 357 00:25:10.440 --> 00:25:15.920 with videos specifically being the posted child of that at a trillion plus valuation. 358 00:25:15.759 --> 00:25:21.000 I think as we look forward to the rest of the year, again, 359 00:25:22.039 --> 00:25:26.400 when we look at the four hundred ninety some other stocks in SMP five hundred, 360 00:25:26.440 --> 00:25:30.559 they're about flat year to day, and so that's really underlying, you 361 00:25:30.599 --> 00:25:37.720 know, just very few concentrated leadership and a lot of companies and their valuation 362 00:25:37.880 --> 00:25:42.519 struggling with the economic grind that's happening. Yeah, yeah, I think you're 363 00:25:42.599 --> 00:25:45.799 right, the head winds from inflation and of course the rising interest rates and 364 00:25:45.880 --> 00:25:52.200 the cost of borrowing money going up. Yeah, and we definitely see, 365 00:25:52.480 --> 00:25:56.359 you know, the Fed policy, there's a lot of uncertainty. They're about 366 00:25:56.440 --> 00:26:02.400 their path going forward. We see in a me that is continued to slow 367 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:07.640 I'll be from very high you know, inflationary levels. We've seen a lot 368 00:26:07.680 --> 00:26:14.119 of progress here since the beginning of the year of inflation being about half of 369 00:26:14.160 --> 00:26:18.480 what it was when we started the year. So again, monetary policy is 370 00:26:18.519 --> 00:26:22.960 effective. And the question is, you know, with this significant slowdown, 371 00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:30.279 where does that continue? Does that start introducing recessions by the end of this 372 00:26:30.359 --> 00:26:33.559 year? Yeah, exactly. It seems like the recession keeps getting pushed out 373 00:26:33.599 --> 00:26:36.880 and pushed out. And I like to I like to use the old saul 374 00:26:37.000 --> 00:26:41.119 that economists have predicted seven of the past four recessions and so we are we 375 00:26:41.160 --> 00:26:45.240 are pessimistic by nature necessarily, but we have been pushing this one out. 376 00:26:45.279 --> 00:26:48.240 Do you think that has to do with consumer spending or are we at the 377 00:26:48.319 --> 00:26:52.519 limit of consumer spending given the credit card debt collectively is a trillion dollars. 378 00:26:53.799 --> 00:27:00.720 Yeah, I think like most issues and most panics, right, it develops 379 00:27:00.799 --> 00:27:04.319 very slowly and then something happens and then all at once people rush for the 380 00:27:06.079 --> 00:27:10.400 for the exits. And we haven't had that issue yet. And part of 381 00:27:10.440 --> 00:27:18.160 that is the significant stimulus that happened after COVID. And when we just look 382 00:27:18.200 --> 00:27:22.920 at something like mto money supply, which is the aggregation of checking the savings 383 00:27:22.960 --> 00:27:27.240 accounts in banks went from about fifteen and a half trillion to twenty one and 384 00:27:27.279 --> 00:27:30.440 a half trillion at its peak, and now it's, you know, come 385 00:27:30.519 --> 00:27:34.640 down almost a trillion dollars. So there's been a lot of money that was 386 00:27:34.720 --> 00:27:41.119 created, which created this inflation, which created the necessitated the reaction by the 387 00:27:41.160 --> 00:27:48.160 Federal Reserve and rising rates to stem that inflation. And so you have this 388 00:27:48.440 --> 00:27:52.680 issue of a lot of money and there's still quite a bit out there. 389 00:27:52.960 --> 00:27:56.599 And when we just look at the trend line of normalcy there's probably still another 390 00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:02.960 trillion or more that's getting in that money supply that hasn't burned off yet. 391 00:28:03.039 --> 00:28:08.240 Now as we look forward to the second half here, we do have continuing 392 00:28:08.359 --> 00:28:15.839 challenges with money supply and also some expensive specifically student loan repayments that are scheduled 393 00:28:15.880 --> 00:28:21.839 to start again in September, which will impact certainly not everyone, but a 394 00:28:21.880 --> 00:28:27.359 significant amount of consumer liquidity. And the consumer with all that money has been 395 00:28:27.400 --> 00:28:32.640 stronger and more resilient. So yes, it's been a slow bill. But 396 00:28:32.759 --> 00:28:37.119 when you look at inflation coming down from eight nine percent on the headline to 397 00:28:37.240 --> 00:28:42.079 be four percent at the last reading in that we saw again down for four 398 00:28:42.119 --> 00:28:47.039 point nine percent the prior reading, you know, there's a lot of progress 399 00:28:47.079 --> 00:28:52.519 being made and some of the stickiness in inflation has been attributed to, you 400 00:28:52.519 --> 00:28:56.319 know, some of these things that are longer lasting, and specifically the biggest 401 00:28:56.319 --> 00:29:03.319 component there is being rent, rent and mortgage payments, so shelter the component 402 00:29:03.359 --> 00:29:07.640 there, we see that finally having peaked. And when you look at kind 403 00:29:07.640 --> 00:29:14.000 of forward looking indicators of that inflation such as Zelo and apartment listing dot Com 404 00:29:14.160 --> 00:29:18.359 where you see where rental rates are now, you know we see that coming 405 00:29:18.359 --> 00:29:23.240 down, and that should continue to help inflation come down again. That's not 406 00:29:23.279 --> 00:29:29.599 normally stripped out what people typically strip out as oil and food, which traditionally 407 00:29:29.599 --> 00:29:33.279 have been volatile, but shelter is very much a lagging indicator, and so 408 00:29:34.160 --> 00:29:40.640 which is normal. You know, people typically, you know, select a 409 00:29:40.680 --> 00:29:44.200 piece of property for a long term of time, and when you do, 410 00:29:44.279 --> 00:29:48.240 at least agreement, it's twelve to eighteen months on average, So it takes 411 00:29:48.240 --> 00:29:52.079 twelve to eighteen months for current prices to kind of filter into that. So 412 00:29:52.480 --> 00:29:56.920 you strip all that out, shelter and some of those volatile food and transportation 413 00:29:56.960 --> 00:30:02.480 costs like oil and already blow two percent, which kind of leaves us, 414 00:30:03.079 --> 00:30:07.960 you know, how long will the FED stick with this high rate policy on 415 00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:10.480 the front end of the curve. I'd really like to dig into the FED 416 00:30:10.559 --> 00:30:12.000 a little bit more, but I have to say, let's put a pin 417 00:30:12.079 --> 00:30:15.799 in that one for now and maybe the next time. Because I'm happy you 418 00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:21.000 mentioned shelter specifically, you mentioned residential I'm trying to keep a slow fire lit 419 00:30:21.119 --> 00:30:25.839 underneath commercial real estate. Is that maybe a tipping point for us recession wise? 420 00:30:25.880 --> 00:30:27.920 When you said it's a slow build to a crisis. Is that going 421 00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:33.000 to be the tipper is the cri well, I think cra You know, 422 00:30:33.079 --> 00:30:37.400 it's a broad asset class that has a lot of different dynamics underneath it. 423 00:30:37.559 --> 00:30:44.160 So there are still places that are very strong and hot. You know, 424 00:30:44.160 --> 00:30:48.759 when you think of warehouses and those type of things that are supporting the growth 425 00:30:48.759 --> 00:30:56.680 of Amazon and other issues or market players, that's still a very hot segment. 426 00:30:56.119 --> 00:31:02.839 I think the focus where people are really concerns are specifically, you know, 427 00:31:02.920 --> 00:31:10.200 the San Francisco Bay Area and New York City office high rises. Right 428 00:31:10.440 --> 00:31:15.720 what we've seen is a big change in work from home where hybrid work, 429 00:31:15.960 --> 00:31:21.079 and so all these office towers are stressed. There's right to be concerned there. 430 00:31:21.599 --> 00:31:26.039 I think on the residential side, the biggest challenge is that higher interest 431 00:31:26.119 --> 00:31:30.319 rate, you know, more to six over six percent on a thirty year 432 00:31:30.039 --> 00:31:33.759 continues to be a lot higher than it was a year and a half ago 433 00:31:33.920 --> 00:31:40.039 when we're looking at at our below three. So that interest rate cost and 434 00:31:40.200 --> 00:31:45.119 financing at the same time, because it's so much more expensive to buy a 435 00:31:45.160 --> 00:31:49.279 house, we see a lot of seller restraint because if you sell a house 436 00:31:49.279 --> 00:31:52.160 and you want to buy a new one, and now you have a lot 437 00:31:52.279 --> 00:31:57.799 higher mortgage payment. So the latest reading on the real estate market is we 438 00:31:57.880 --> 00:32:04.680 get a little bit by where existing inventory is kind of tied with that switching 439 00:32:04.720 --> 00:32:09.480 cost issue, but new homes are starting to pick up the new home permits 440 00:32:09.480 --> 00:32:14.079 and so forth, because there is an on that supply, and that's kind 441 00:32:14.119 --> 00:32:19.359 of what's keeping home prices still at a relatively high level. We'll see where 442 00:32:19.839 --> 00:32:23.519 that trends towards the later part of this year. Obviously, spring and summer 443 00:32:23.640 --> 00:32:29.799 are great times for homes tradition anyhow, and we rarely ever see price declients. 444 00:32:29.839 --> 00:32:32.880 There are those spring and summer selling seasons, but as we go out 445 00:32:32.960 --> 00:32:37.759 further that will be concerned, especially if rates continue to stay at these levels. 446 00:32:38.119 --> 00:32:42.480 Jerry, thanks a lot for your time. Absolutely, President and chief 447 00:32:42.480 --> 00:32:45.480 investment Officer at First American Trust, Jerry Brockman right there now on your wake 448 00:32:45.559 --> 00:32:49.160 up called. Jeffrey Skelly is with five thirty eight dot com. That's a 449 00:32:49.240 --> 00:32:52.559 high profile polling website, usually around politics. Mister Skelly, welcome back to 450 00:32:52.559 --> 00:32:57.200 wake Up Call. Hey, thanks for having me on. Absolutely, let's 451 00:32:57.240 --> 00:33:00.599 get into a third party politics. Not a great track record. What is 452 00:33:00.640 --> 00:33:07.279 happening now though, with no labels. Yeah. So this organization has been 453 00:33:07.319 --> 00:33:13.200 around for a while pushing sort of bipartisanship, centrism and our politics in Washington, 454 00:33:14.039 --> 00:33:15.400 and so you know, they have a bit of a track record for 455 00:33:15.400 --> 00:33:20.920 for trying to make appeals on this front. But they are basically planning a 456 00:33:21.000 --> 00:33:24.599 potential third party bid. They want to back a as they call it, 457 00:33:24.599 --> 00:33:30.359 a moderate independent alternative. I think, especially if we end up with a 458 00:33:30.400 --> 00:33:36.720 rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and so that that's they have some 459 00:33:36.720 --> 00:33:38.440 some money behind this, some muscle, if you will, political muscle. 460 00:33:39.000 --> 00:33:43.400 So it is possible that they can get on the ballot in you know, 461 00:33:43.599 --> 00:33:49.039 all or nearly all fifty states and actually run somebody and at least gained some 462 00:33:49.119 --> 00:33:52.440 notoriety and you know, perhaps affect the outcome of the election. Okay, 463 00:33:52.480 --> 00:33:57.440 well you're the one, you're the poster. You tell me if the partisanship 464 00:33:57.480 --> 00:34:00.000 has created a down the middle kind of alley for a third party this time, 465 00:34:00.039 --> 00:34:05.839 because it doesn't seem like the track record is very strong. I am 466 00:34:05.960 --> 00:34:09.800 definitely a bit skeptical. It's really really hard to win is a third party 467 00:34:09.840 --> 00:34:15.000 in this country and presidential elections. Some of that is systemic because, particularly 468 00:34:15.039 --> 00:34:19.760 because of the electoral college, most states award all their electoral votes to whoever 469 00:34:19.800 --> 00:34:22.480 has the most votes, and because of that, it tends to push people 470 00:34:22.559 --> 00:34:28.679 toward voting for two parties. It's it's been a long running thing in this 471 00:34:28.760 --> 00:34:31.880 country. So that's that's the sort of a fundamental challenge. Now if you 472 00:34:31.920 --> 00:34:37.760 look at our politics right now, there's definitely dissatisfaction with the status quo, 473 00:34:37.960 --> 00:34:42.960 and you have polls were keenly saying the majority of Americans would love to see 474 00:34:43.000 --> 00:34:45.719 the third party alternative just because they're sort of tired. They feel like the 475 00:34:45.760 --> 00:34:50.920 two parties aren't doing the job. But the problem is, if you actually 476 00:34:51.159 --> 00:34:54.199 ask people how they identify politically, you know, you'll get forty percent or 477 00:34:54.199 --> 00:34:59.239 so say they're independent. But if you push those independents and say, well, 478 00:34:59.239 --> 00:35:01.360 do you lean to one party? Yeah, well, three and four 479 00:35:01.440 --> 00:35:05.559 or four and five depending on the survey, will say, yeah, I 480 00:35:05.639 --> 00:35:07.440 lean towards the Democrats, or I lean towards the Republicans, And so you 481 00:35:07.559 --> 00:35:13.199 end up with only roughly one in ten Americans saying yeah, I'm truly independent. 482 00:35:13.199 --> 00:35:15.199 I don't lean one way or the other. So that makes it I 483 00:35:15.239 --> 00:35:17.440 think really hard to find, as you called it, sort of that middle 484 00:35:17.519 --> 00:35:22.679 lane. There's not a big middle lane. How many electoral college boats does 485 00:35:22.679 --> 00:35:27.119 it take to win the presidency? You need two hundred and seventy out of 486 00:35:27.119 --> 00:35:29.119 five and thirty eight, which, by the way, is the reason why 487 00:35:29.119 --> 00:35:31.199 our website is called five thirty eight dot com. See I set you up 488 00:35:31.199 --> 00:35:37.559 for that one. Uh. Does this third party have an actual strategy when 489 00:35:37.559 --> 00:35:43.079 it comes to getting to that magic number of electoral college boats? Yeah, 490 00:35:43.119 --> 00:35:45.000 I mean they're and they released a sort of a plan. They called it 491 00:35:45.000 --> 00:35:49.960 an insurance plan for twenty twenty four, and they sort of they did a 492 00:35:49.960 --> 00:35:53.719 bunch of polling late last year trying to identify i mean, with a very 493 00:35:54.000 --> 00:36:00.559 large sample size across the country, across all fifty states and sort of going 494 00:36:00.559 --> 00:36:04.480 down into the leads in each state, and they basically identified a past that 495 00:36:04.519 --> 00:36:07.840 they thought they could get to two hundred and eighty six electoral votes based on 496 00:36:07.880 --> 00:36:13.400 the electorates in states ranging from as red as Utah to as blue as Hawaii. 497 00:36:13.519 --> 00:36:16.400 Now I think that's you know, obviously they want to sell that they 498 00:36:16.400 --> 00:36:21.559 have a chance at winning this thing, but that's going to be very hard 499 00:36:21.559 --> 00:36:22.599 to do at the end of the day. Because another thing that I think 500 00:36:22.679 --> 00:36:27.719 is really important here. It's not just that people tend to identify with a 501 00:36:27.800 --> 00:36:30.199 party. You know, people attended to identify with a party in nineteen ninety 502 00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:34.280 two, and Ross Brow did really well. Yeah, I think. I 503 00:36:34.320 --> 00:36:38.360 think the real challenge though, is that even since that time, attitudes toward 504 00:36:38.440 --> 00:36:42.920 the other political party. So like a Democrat looking at a Republican, a 505 00:36:42.920 --> 00:36:45.920 Republican looking at a Democrat, their attitudes have gotten a lot more negative. 506 00:36:46.039 --> 00:36:50.960 It's this concept called negative partisanship. And so people tend to like their party 507 00:36:51.039 --> 00:36:53.719 or the party they lean toward, but they really dislike the other party now 508 00:36:53.800 --> 00:36:59.440 to a degree that was not the case twenty thirty years ago. And that 509 00:36:59.480 --> 00:37:04.519 makes voters even more afraid of the idea of the other party getting into power. 510 00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:07.960 And so that is another factor that can keep them sort of in their 511 00:37:07.000 --> 00:37:09.920 camp from considering an alternative because at the end of the day, it's to 512 00:37:10.039 --> 00:37:13.559 be really hard for a third party to win. So why would you risk 513 00:37:13.639 --> 00:37:16.199 voting for a third party if it might actually help the party you really don't 514 00:37:16.239 --> 00:37:20.280 want to see in power get into power. Right, Because you mentioned ninety 515 00:37:20.280 --> 00:37:22.519 two, Ross Perot kind of took a lot of votes away from George W. 516 00:37:22.679 --> 00:37:25.920 Bush's reelection campaign. Ralph Nader has done it in the past on the 517 00:37:25.960 --> 00:37:30.360 from politicians on the on the left as well. I'm wondering, let me 518 00:37:30.440 --> 00:37:34.079 ask you a question about methodology at five to thirty eight when it comes to 519 00:37:34.199 --> 00:37:37.599 third parties or any kind of polling around this, how do you how do 520 00:37:37.639 --> 00:37:40.840 you manage for that? Because if everybody, if one intent, are truly 521 00:37:40.880 --> 00:37:45.639 independent voters, that's a lot of squishy area. How do you compensate? 522 00:37:46.239 --> 00:37:50.039 Well, I mean, look, when you when you're when you're looking at 523 00:37:50.119 --> 00:37:54.239 polling UM, you know, the polster will ask people how they identify, 524 00:37:54.360 --> 00:37:58.800 they will ask who they intend to vote for, and you always have to 525 00:37:59.239 --> 00:38:01.400 be open to the idea, is it there's some error in polling UM. 526 00:38:01.440 --> 00:38:05.440 So so when you know, for instance, when we're building our forecast model, 527 00:38:06.000 --> 00:38:07.760 which we haven't done yet, we're still away as from the actual general 528 00:38:07.760 --> 00:38:13.199 election. But when you're but when you're but when you're doing that, you 529 00:38:13.199 --> 00:38:17.400 know, you you you build in room for error essentially, and so when 530 00:38:17.400 --> 00:38:21.679 you're saying like, oh, somebody has like a two and three chance of 531 00:38:21.719 --> 00:38:27.320 winning, it's because you're you're acknowledging that there is uncertainty, and acknowledging uncertainty 532 00:38:27.440 --> 00:38:30.760 is like a big part of what we do. Um So I think when 533 00:38:30.760 --> 00:38:32.719 you're thinking about a third party in general, and if we actually have a 534 00:38:32.719 --> 00:38:37.880 third party candidate who is polling I don't know, ten percent or something or 535 00:38:37.920 --> 00:38:39.639 eight percent, you know it should be you know, on the high side. 536 00:38:39.679 --> 00:38:44.679 Historically, you know that that will be uh know, that will be 537 00:38:44.679 --> 00:38:47.800 an added complication for for a forecast model, and we'll have to if we 538 00:38:47.840 --> 00:38:51.440 get if that's the situation, you know, we're going to have to account 539 00:38:51.480 --> 00:38:53.519 for it. But at the end of the day, like to some extent, 540 00:38:53.639 --> 00:38:58.320 you're still looking at the two bigger numbers there for the Democrat or the 541 00:38:58.360 --> 00:39:01.599 Republican because that's probably who's gonna win. And you know, we're looking at 542 00:39:01.639 --> 00:39:06.960 state level polling when it comes to the electoral College because that's how we actually 543 00:39:07.000 --> 00:39:08.880 decide prosividual elections. So you're gonna be looking at what's going on in each 544 00:39:08.920 --> 00:39:15.519 individual state, and historically the way that the state's move tends to be correlated. 545 00:39:16.000 --> 00:39:20.480 If one state is shifting to the right, a lot of times states 546 00:39:20.519 --> 00:39:23.480 nearby or have similar characteristics are also shifting to the right or left, you 547 00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:28.280 know, whatever it may be. All right, well, that's I appreciate 548 00:39:28.280 --> 00:39:30.639 you unpacking some of that because I think there's a definite question that rolls around 549 00:39:30.679 --> 00:39:34.000 when it comes to posters and polling, and I know that five thirty eight 550 00:39:34.039 --> 00:39:37.199 has been around long enough to handle that kind of question. Thank you so 551 00:39:37.280 --> 00:39:39.760 much, Jeffrey, Hey, thank you so much for having me. Jeffrey 552 00:39:39.800 --> 00:39:44.719 Skelly is senior elections analyst at five thirty eight dot com and of course they 553 00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:47.559 are a partner of ABC News. We lead local live from the KFY twenty 554 00:39:47.559 --> 00:39:51.159 four our newsroom. I'm Jason Middleton. This has been your wake up call. 555 00:39:51.440 --> 00:39:53.480 You've been listening to wake up call? 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