This podcast episode is brought to you by Coors Light. These days, everything
is go, go go. It's NonStop hustle all the time. Work,
friends, family, expect you to be on twenty four seven. Well,
sometimes you just need to reach for a Coors Light because it's made to chill.
Coors Light is cold loggered, cold filtered, and cold package. It's
as crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. It's literally made to chill.
Cores Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind. So when
you want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill.
Get Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with drizzling or
INSTATCRT Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. What it do Hardwoodnox
listeners. I am Dampa Valley. It's been a while, probably over a
year and a half since I came in with that intro. So you're welcome.
Welcome to another episode of the Hardwoodknox Podcast. We have our Monday mailbag
for you, Adam and I. Before we get into it, reminder,
come on join us on locker Room Sundays four pm. We had a couple
of regular listeners in there, in addition to the few locker room stragglers we
get, or maybe they're loyal locker room listeners that don't just listen to the
podcast, but listeners that we actually not over interact with on Twitter came to
locker room join them. You get to ask live questions. You can also
respond to the tweets that we're sending out. Make sure at the very least
that you are downloading every episode of this podcast, listening to it, and
also fully subscribed. Please and word of mouth. If you've done all those
things, tell your friends, family, frenemies, co workers, random people
on social media about us. That helps out it out too, and definitely
don't forget to go go to iTunes search Hardwoo Knox. Doesn't matter if you
use iTunes or not go there anyway, give us that five star rating,
write a review. Those help us a ton as well. Follow us on
Twitter at Hardwood Knox, follow us on YouTube, YouTube dot com search hardwood
Knox. We will come up subscribe like our videos. Juice that algorithm for
us so we get more views and would have proven to be weird sometimes awkward
comments on YouTube, but hey, we're here, we're rolling with it,
and finally, follow the Sports Math Network on Twitter at the underscore Sports Underscore
Math spelled exactly as it sounds, without further delay. We'll make this a
sub eighty second intro or excuse me, a sub one hundred and twenty second
intro. Let's get to our met back. We cover a bunch. It's
a lot of fun. Talk to you guys in a couple of milliseconds.
Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwood Knox. This is
Adam Frommel here with my good friend and co host Stan for Valley. Today
we're going to be focusing on the Eastern Conference playoff race, which is just
this fascinating amalgamation of teams right now. Whether it seems like the number one
seed is up for grabs, a bunch of teams are fighting for the number
four spot. Even more teams are fighting to stay out of the play in
tournament, and just as many are trying to get into that tenth and final
spot for the inaugural play in tournament. I guess is it really inaugural this
season because of last year? Even though the format's different. What are we
calling that? Dan? I don't know. If it's inaugural. They just
tweaked the rules to it a little bit, and I don't actually know why
they tweaked the rules, because I think the having to be within four games
makes sense just so that there's not this huge distance between you know, if
Dallas is seven and is like a twelve games in front of eighth, ninth,
and tenth, which is going to happen. But I do think there
needs to be that needs to be an adjustment they bring back. I'm with
you. I think that it's going to continue to be tweaked as we move
forward, especially because like Mark Cuban came out and was like, maybe this
wasn't the greatest idea, even though he was in favor of it in the
first place. But that's neither here nor there, because most importantly, we
have to ask how you're doing today? Dan. I am all right currently
about to post a gift with the link on Twitter. I'm excited to talk
about the East and get to our mail bad questions as usual. Shout out
to the two people listening to us live at the moment, it's like I
hope I get stage fight with all these live years just hearing my voice.
Ay it's a good start. We appreciate everyone here, But yeah, I'm
doing well. I just finished watching the fantastic Sunday afternoon game between through New
Orleans Pelicans and New York Knicks, and it makes me want to ask about
Julius Randall right off the bat, because he's just been on an absolute tear
lately. The ten games going into Sunday, he was averaging twenty six point
one points, nine point eight rebounds, seven point zero assists. Then Sunday
he has just another fantastic do everything game thirty three points, ten assists,
five steals, five rebounds, a workhorse on the offensive end, trying to
play better defense on a nightly basis, it seems, and keys at ten
point over time victory against the Pelicans as the Knicks continue to play above five
hundred basketball. He's only twenty six, He's under contract for one more year
at nineteen point eight million dollars. And I'm just curious how you're thinking has
changed, especially given the Knicks fandom, however diminished it may have become in
recent years, Like do you view him as way more of a building block
now or do you still think this is like just a temporary thing that is
very much worthy of celebration, but doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be a
core part of the next cha papionship caliber Knicks team. I honestly think I
lean towards the ladder because you're going to have to decide whether he can be
the best player or I guess second best player. If you assume RJ.
Barrett or someone else you acquire is will be can be the second best player
at bet him on a championship team. Maybe he gets there. I don't
know if his timeline and the knickses are going to be in lockstep. You
can extend him this summer like four let's say one hundred. It was probably
the number they would land at, which seems fair. I don't know what
that it makes you. I think it puts a cap on your ceiling,
is what I'm getting at. And this year has been fun because the Knicks
have been competent again, and I don't want to diminish everything he's doing.
He Lebron James and who's the other player? Yokis are the only players in
the league leading their teams and points and assist this year. His offense,
the Knicks offense is not great, but you know he has a step back
now like he's hitting these tough aaides and we've seen him do it from three
two to where. I don't think the three point shooting is an anomaly or
just a product of easy opportunity. So I want to make it clear.
I don't think he's all ONBA this year is because of how deep the forward
pool is. But he has been probably you know, top twenty five,
top thirty guy this year. He's been spectacular. I just don't know where
that gets you. Looking at the rest of the roster, and you have
decisions to make this year around the rest of the roster Mitchell Robinson team option.
Do you resign him, decline it, make him a restricted free ation
and pay him now, or do you pick it up and punt on paying
him until later. But no, he's going to enter unrestricted free agency next
year where there will probably be more suitors. Alec Burks, Reggie Bullock.
I'm not even gonna throw out for Peyton in there. But you know,
Netherlands, Noel, these are guys that are going to pay, don't They're
not gonna pay him, and I'm going to be so upset if they don't.
First of all, I want him for the record, if they don't
extend Frankie Lakina a qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agency, this
podcast is going to riot collectively, not just me, but Adam by extension
as well. So unless the Knicks can figure out a way to get that,
I think they're probably a player and a half short of being a contender
or like a superstar short. And unless they find a way to get that
while keeping Randall and RJ Barrett, I'm not saying you don't keep Randall.
I just don't think he's on the iteration of this next title contender. And
I'm not just saying that they can't get a star via trade, but or
you know, is Obi Toppin gonna pops that Maggie Well quickly gonna pop?
Probably not, RJ Barrett, your best chance at getting to that level of
player, And I think you still need another one after that. And I
buy I buy into Julius Randall. I feel like I'm denigrating him right now.
If he signed a four year, one hundred million dollar extension, I
would say that's that's fair value for what where he's done from a team perspective.
He's just it's pretty clear that there's a cap on what you're going to
be if he's your best or second best player right now, and considering he's
just their best player, you know that cap exists. It's also just such
funky typical Nick's timing, isn't it. Like this team has been an absolute
joy to watch. Tom Thiboeau has it playing remarkably hard on the defensive end.
Everyone plays with passion and exuberance and really seems to revel in each and
every vie, which is so important. Like this, this team knows that
it's on the rise and it's enjoying that process. But like, of course
the Knicks unearthed Julius Randall as like a legitimate star and knock themselves down the
draft standings like they currently sit eighteenth in the pecking order in mock drafts during
the year that the draft is absolutely loaded with top end talent and any spot
in the lottery seams beneficial. Look now is when the Knicks are going to
make the playoffs and not have access to one of those top talents. It's
it's just it's a little it's just a little too nixxy isn't it that they
do all of this at the worst possible time and might cap their ceiling a
little bit just because of that bad timing. Yeah, and there's I guess
the two pushbacks against that would be they've they've been very poor and in the
past and they've not gotten those top picks and so they've been spurned by that.
And also if they finish above five hundred after going through I think it
was after the All Star Break the league's toughest guy, Joel was one of
the three toughest. If you finish above five hundred after that, maybe there's
more to plumb with this team. I'm just I'm still curious as that RJ.
Barrett's really the because Mitchell Robinson's out, like he's the only young player
on this team getting consistent heavy minutes just with the sporadic usage of Obi Toppin
or Emmanuel Quickly. So those are questions. And I know Noah Odage just
said Julius Randall greater than Christops porzingis in the chat on mocker Room. He's
been better than I don't know how you argue otherwise. Right now, right
like, the idea is still still intriguing. But like the idea is only
intriguing if it's possible to be realized, and increasingly that looks unlikely. Right,
So, even if you're going long term, it gets tough to pick
Chris Stops there and with Randall, even if Chris Stops just does become the
guy who can be close to all defense and while spacing the Florign offense,
and he's been hitting a fair amount of his post ups looks this year,
even though they don't necessarily look pretty. Even if he becomes that his influence
over the offense is going to be capped because he's not a primary ballhand or
like Julius Randall is. And I do think for me specifically, I default
to the playmakers in that situation, especially if they're going to have that much
responsibility like Julius Randall does. What does get interesting is to before really diving
into the playoff predictions in the east or structure. However, whatever you want
to say revisiting that Chris Stops porzingis trade, because I think everyone has said
the Knicks won that trade. Julius Randall was a part of that because they
use the cap space they got from the trade to get Julius Randall. I'm
not saying that's faulty logic. There's still an element of Look, Chris stops
Porzingis could be better long term Tim Hardaway juniors in Dallas. They might keep
him and he's been very useful. What did those Mavericks picks turn into?
Is Julius Randall in New York beyond next season? So there's still is much
TBD here for me. But I do the argument, which I had made
in the past that the Knicks really fucked up because they did that move for
cap space. Isn't those Mavericks picks. It was for cap space, and
they whiffed on all their major signings. They still whipped on their first first
choice options. But Julius Randall looks like he could be a mainstay and has
been so good this year, so it probably is fair as of right now.
If we were to just end the trade right now, it looks like
the Knicks got the better end of it. But this is still one of
those moves where I think you have to let it play out a little bit
longer before you make that final verdict. It's also going to be such a
tough trade to relitigate. I can already see like retroactive gradings of it five
years from now. That just overlook the context because ultimately, like the trade
goes in the books as the Knicks trading Christops porzingis Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway
Junior and Courtney Lee to the Dallas Mavericks for DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews,
Dennis Smith Junior and two top ten protected first round picks in twenty twenty one
and twenty twenty three. But what that doesn't say is how it unfolded.
I think is the first pick is unprotected, so that adds value to the
two right here, right, Yeah, just the latter is top ten protected,
but it's not like that protect was gonna matter this year anyway. But
but either way, like the way the trade unfolded, was that happened on
January thirty first, twenty nineteen, and we learned that Christops porzingis wanted out,
Like was it January thirtieth or was it the morning of January thirty first?
Like that process happened so fast that the big criticism of the Knicks wasn't
just that they were making this move for cap space, it was how quickly
it unfolded because if you shopped him around, you're probably getting a lot more
for him, right, And I feel confident in saying that they did not
adequately canvass the league for a package. And I think it's mostly because they
needed a team that was willing to take on the bad money and they weren't
trading Christops Porzingis for value back. It was the flexibility in free agency,
and that isn't so rushed. Yeah, but to their credit or to I
think this is more Julius Randall's credit, To be honest with you, he
is. He is the best player to come out of that deal so far,
pretty decidedly. I don't you know Christops Perzincas has number two? Maybe?
Man? I mean, is it Tim hartaway? Jan? It might
be Ji right now, Yeah, especially given the price point at which you're
still having Chris Stops on the roster. So if you're this to wrap it
up here, if you're the Knicks, are you keeping Julius Randall long term?
And by that I mean are you signing him to an extension this summer
or are you waiting playing it out, letting it seeing where you are in
twenty twenty two and evaluating his actual free agency, then I think I'd sign
him to an extension right away. Like having him It might not produce a
championship caliber ceiling, but the only way that's going to happen is by hitting
on a later pick in the draft now anyway, or r J. Barrett
just blossom into an absolute superstar who makes the previous debate abou him and John
Morant look ridiculous because he's that much better. It's like, I don't know
why you would let him go. Oh, I'm with you. I would.
I'd probably try and get him to an extension at this point, and
there's a chance that he only costs you more if you're if you let him
go to twenty twenty two free agency. Just yeah, I mean especially yeah,
right now, there's still this air of uncertainty about like how legitimate and
sustainable this level of play is. If he produces like this for another year
and you're looking at a guy who's led the Knicks to back to back playoff
appearances after decades of futility, that price point is skyrocketing. Yeah, I'm
probably near max money at that point. Yeah, I feel pretty confident in
saying looking at the Eastern Conference playoff structure. We had a few questions in
our mailbag solicitation about this, and I'll throw those in there as they pertained.
We did not have any at the top. I think that would be
the place to start, because there are three teams, and I feel like,
really only two that have a possibility of winding up in the first spot.
But how would your tip? I think there's still three four times.
It's just it's only three teams a max of three teams computing for number one.
I think it's the order that it currently is, with the seventy six
ers and the number one seed Brooklyn that's at number two, and the Milwaukee
Bucks at number three. I still think the Bucks could be the best of
those three teams at full strength, but they've learned from the past few years
that there's no need to chase that number one seed. I mean, it's
useful, but if you're doing that at the expense of health and long term
ability in the postseason, why bother so I think they're taking the right approach
by being so cautious, holding Janisanda Kumpo out for longer than might be necessary
and making sure he's fully recovered before stepping back on the floor, maybe unlike
what the Nets are doing, because we just saw Kevin Durant return and leave
after a few minutes with a left thigh contusion, and it's just another injury
in the long and troubling line for him. I'm not sure that the Nets
are going to be healthy enough to keep pace with a seventy six ers squad
that's getting all the pieces back. I still don't really know how I think
those three stack up if we're talking about playoff series, because they all have
such disparate strengths and weaknesses, and all of them are just legitimately capable of
advancing all the way through the Eastern Conference playoffs and representing the conference in the
NBA Finals. But I do think the way the standings currently stack up,
where the seventy six Ers have a one game lead over the Nets, who
are three games ahead of the Bucks, looks about right. Yeah, I'm
mostly with you. I might just take the put the Bucks into and the
Nets at three because of all the injuries that they've suffered, and now if
you're gonna miss, they've treated every Kevin Durant issue, you know, putting
him in basically bubble wrap. And I think I mean, that's the move
right now. It doesn't really matter for seeding, and you're locked into me
for top three. And so you look at the Bucks. They've been experimenting
a lot this regular season, and I think they have the tougher schedule moving
forward. As I double checked this very quickly, No, the Nets actually
have the fourth toughest schedule remaining in the league per positive residual. So I'll
go six Ers one. I'll go Milwaukee Bucks two, and the Nets three,
and I don't really have much to add from that. I not convinced,
though. I think a lot of people have defaulted to the Nets coming
out of the East, and even just independent of injuries, though that's certainly
an issue. I'm not I'm not convinced. I think Milwaukee and Philly both
have a shot. And if I had to pick two day, who's coming
out of the East, I'm picking the Philadelphia seventy six ers. I think
I'm still picking the Bucks, but it's with a lot of hesitance. Any
of those three, you know, it wouldn't be even remotely surprising to me.
I do agree that the conversation has been a little bit weird, where
the Nets are treated as like this foregone conclusion the offense might be good enough
for them to just steam roll their way through, but I'm just I'm not
there yet, no, And it looks the availability he's a part of it.
Just looking at how much time KAD has missed. And you know,
I'm not too worried about the James harden write cash strain whatever he's dealing with
right now, and Irving will be fine, even KD just might be fine.
I just sometimes these things take a little time to come together in the
first place, when you're dealing with superstar formations of this magnitude, and that
could be an adjustment period for them. They have played seven times together this
season, the three of them, So, like I've said from the start
here that like I view this as a type of team constructuction that has a
remarkably high ceiling, but also a lower floor because when you are that reliant
on one end of the court, you don't have the defensive ability to make
up for off shooting nights. And yeah, it's great that you have three
legitimate offensive superstars, but they can all have off nights at the same time.
And if you go through a stretch where the offense gets cold, like
that's a death knell. They I would be shocked if these three players had
off nights on the same time. I think I would be. I would
be too, I would be two for sure, but still like it's easier
to lose games when you are that reliant on one side of the court and
don't have the ability to counteract it with the other. I think the more
interesting discussion to me is four or five and six in the East out of
the play in firmly in the playoffs. The teams that are in those spots
right now. Atlanta is fourth, Boston is fifth, the nixt or sixth,
winners of six in a row. By the way, the Knicks,
how do you see that shaking out? Do you see another team? I
think really just looking at not just the distance between them, but I would
throw Miami as the only other team that could finish with one of these three
spots. It feels like between the heat Nick, Celtics, and Hawks for
these final three guaranteed playoff slots. Yeah, I mean the Hornets are three
games back of the Hawks. The Pacers are, Yeah, but neither of
those really feels like it's trending in the right direction. I mean, as
as you mentioned the Knicks of one six and a row. The Celtics have
also won six in a row. The Hawks have been playing a lot better
lately. I think I'm gonna go with Atlanta getting the four spot. It
feels like this is the team, maybe so, but it feels like this
is the team that has the most upside, just based on all the prominent
offseason acquisitions that are finally starting to coalesce together. Like boy On Bogdanovich has
been our sorry Bogdon Bogdanovitch has been fantastic lately, just shooting career high numbers
from three point range, on hitting pull up shots, hitting spot up shots.
Kevin Herder is playing this versatile, all around brand of basketball that constantly
flies below the radar and is probably going to get him paid this offseason.
Trey Young is driving, Clint Capella has been unbelievable in keying everything that Atlanta
does on the defensive end, cleaning the glass remarkably well. It feels like
all those pieces are coming together as expected earlier in the season, where we
were talking about them as like a playoff lock potentially, and it's just seems
to be clicking under Nate McMillan. So what I would say here is I
actually think it ends up being the three teams that are already in the spots.
Looking at the Hawks, Celtics and Knicks, the Heat are just I
don't trust them on a night tonight basis. And there maybe I'm just breeding
too much into the three game losing streak, but you're dealing with the Oladipo
injury, and not that he was mission critical to what you're doing, but
that was your swing piece for the rest of this year. Jimmy Butler just
said they're playing so off Their offense has been wildly inconsistent, putting in constant
pressure on the rim outside of Jimmy Butler obviously, So I think I would
put the Celtics here just because I think they are the better team than the
Hawks. Still at the top, you have Trey Young in Atlanta, and
I think one of the things that Alan has done a great job doing,
by the way under Nate McMillan, and I'm not Nate McMillen deserve a lot
of credit for this, but I also think they got healthier, which was
a big factor at least in terms of their other ball handlers like Bogdanovich and
Gallo, they've been able to navigate like the non Trey Young minutes there was
I can't remember what was the win? Was it last week without Trey Young?
Where they went in overtime? I think in one. I can't remember
the team. That's not something they seem to equip to do previously. But
the Celtics just having Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum is absolutely huge. In that
conversation, both these teams have some of the league's easiest schedules remaining, Boston
as the third easiest in the league, the Hawks of the fifth easiest,
and so maybe there's a level of interchangeability there. I just to fall to
the Celtics, even though I'm not sure I trust them as much. They're
not as deep, but their top end talent is probably better. I think
the Knicks wind up staying in sixth, and that's by I might actually the
Knicks a little bit better than the Hawks overall, just because of their defense.
Their schedule is just still it's normalized a little bit the difficulty of it
because they've played so many difficult games, but they still have one of the
twelve hardest schedules remaining and that's after having a play through like what they've just
played through. And look, the other thing we got to keep an eye
on is that Julius Randall and RJ. Barrett have played a crap ton of
minutes this year. That was RJ. Barrett playing forty six in regulation the
other night. It's really a deviation from the norm. For Thibadeau, I
just shocked by this. Yeah, he's normally so good at limiting his players
minutes. He does a good drop of it with a supporting cast, to
be fair. So that's because there's only so many minutes to go around,
right. But I think if I had to pick, I think the Knicks
would leap drop with the Hawks before the Celtics. At this point, I'm
just gonna slap them into sixth because I could see them hitting a wall or
just the schedule, you know, getting to them a little bit. And
they're already just throughout the bottom of this three team tier. So I have
Boss fourth, Atlanta fifth, and the Knicks six. I do not think
that tier changes at all, though. Yeah, I think Atlanta narrowly edges
out Boston for four, and I'll have the Knicks in sixth, and I
don't think the heat will be particularly close, But we just we have to
give some respect to Jason Tatum right now because he's just been on a tear
there. I mean, during this six game winning streak twenty five, ten
and five, fifty three, ten and four, twenty eight and ten,
thirty two and nine, fourteen, five and five, and then forty four
and ten when he went toe to toe with Steph Curry. He's been unbelievable.
This is the level we were expecting him to play at early in the
season when we knew that Kemba Walker was going to be missing time, and
I think both of us were kind of on board with the idea that he
was going to get off to such a strong start that he'd begin the season
firmly in the MVP mix. Didn't really happen, but had he played like
this, he would be. He's getting to the line, he's hitting three
pointers from all over, all over the arc, he's involved as a playmaker,
he's still pay some of the best off ball defense you'll find in the
NBA. Just everything is clicking for him right now. Yeah, then the
level of difficulty on some of his shots, My god, that warrior Celtics
game. He just hit some really tough ones down the stretch, so he
is spectacular. The next sector of teams, we have a question from Meyer
Rothbomb of who gets the ten seed. And it's interesting because I think we
can also break this up into a group of three. I think seven,
eight and nine are going to be between the Heat, Hornets, and Pacers.
I don't see anyone bridging any of the gaps to stink there. How
do you see seven, eight and nine shaking out? And then we can
get to who we think is. You know, the race for the ten
spot is actually probably another three team race, So that's kind of funny too.
Yeah. I think the Heat stick at seven. They just they're the
best healthiest team. They have the most top end talent that's actually available.
Jimmy Butler and bam Onto Bio give you a chance to win any game on
any given night, and they have the advantage of already being in the seventh
spot in the standings. So I don't I don't see that changing. I
do think that the Pace are going to leap frog the Hornets. Now.
The Miles Turner is back. He played in this most recent game against the
Hawks. They they are getting healthier, they still have a good foundation on
both ends of the floor, and the Hornets the injuries are just a little
bit too much to overcome unless they start giving Grant Ruler thirty minutes tonight,
and then who knows what's going to happen. I think Grant Ruler injured at
the moment or no. I should probably know that, shouldn't I, But
I don't. Yeah, if you're if you're gonna cape for him at least,
no he's not, he's not all right, Well, then maybe I'm
not caping for him, So I don't feel bad. I could have sworn
there was something there. I'm gonna be in lockstep with you here too.
I'm nervous to say that, like the Pacers will get leap frogged, but
that they will leap frogg the Hornets though they've been I know injuries have been
part of it, but they've just been an acid trip all year where they've
had offensive breakdowns where it feels like they need more playmaking, but then they've
had defensive breakdowns there. I might want to keep him in ninth. I'm
not gonna lie if it's been so unimpressed with them, but having Miles Turner
back is going to be so absolutely huge for them if they ever get There's
no timeline, it seems, but like when t. J. Warren comes
back after having his surgery on his foot, that would be huge for them,
and they yeah, I'll leave them. This is a stream of conscious
thought here, I'll put them in eighth and have the Hornets ninth. There
just by virtue of missing Heyward in Mamelo Ball, you think they fall off
a little bit, And when you look at just the strength of schedules moving
forward, there's not like this huge difference. The Pacers actually have the fourth
easiest in the league compared to the Hornets are seventh, So that's how that'll
shake out. I do think the race for the ten spot is probably more
interesting. It is between the Bulls and the Wizards have identical records right now.
The Bulls actually hold the tiebreaker though, so they are in tenth,
and then the Raptors are in eleventh, a half game behind the two of
them. Who do you have there? This is a tough one, but
I think I'm gonna go with the Wizards very hesitantly. They have the fifth
easiest remaining schedule, which is easier than any of the others. They have
health working in their advantage more than the other teams do. As Zach Lavine
is set to miss a good bit of time, and the Raptors just kind
of like seemed to be in tanking mode. I don't think a team that
really wants to end up in the tenth seed is going to have rest days
like they did on Friday. I believe where they sat Pascal Siakam and o
g Nnobi and Kyle Lowry and everyone, and that's like they're giving themselves a
schedule loss, which you can't afford to do if you really want to be
making a push for that ten seed. The Wizards are playing hard. They
really seem to be letting Russell Westbrook's mentality affect everyone on the team in a
positive way. It seems like Bradley Beale has bought into Russell Westbrook's role.
It seems like all of the role players have embraced the toughest nails personality with
which he plays and it's paying off. You know, they've won four games
in a row. It doesn't feel that because this team does have a good
bit of talent, it just hasn't come together until later in the season.
I think I would go as far as saying that if the Wizards are the
team that does make the play in game like, they might have a legitimate
shot to advance beyond that play in tournament. Oh, I oh, beyond
the play And yeah, I thought you were gonna say, to'm win a
playoff series. I have the Raptors there. I know that they're going through
the I don't know if this is a stealth tank at this point. I
don't know what they're doing, but I think it's over. I don't know
that they're giving themselves scheduled losses. I do think they're deeper than advertised,
and I still kind of believe that they haven't defaulted to tank mode just yet,
and so we're going to see more time with their four and five best
players together, which they just haven't gotten a ton of this season, and
they clearly have the highest ceiling. I would argue of any of the teams
behind the Miami Heat in the standings at this point, you might I might
even be able to incline to pick them against the Heat. They're a team
that I love to see make the play in because I think they could really
mess up the Eastern Conference playoffs in that regard where I would probably pick them
to win the play in I think if they make it, so I guess
I'm writing off the heat there, which might be a little unfair. And
if they do win, you know, if they do win, the well
there would be too sponsible. I would predict that they make the playoffs then,
and I could see them against any team other than Brooklyn, a healthy
Brooklyn really putting up like a huge fight, and that could totally just fuck
with the Eastern Conference playoff pitcher in the first round. And so I will
be rooting for them to make the playoffs and finish with a seven or eight
seed, but also have to play someone who is not a healthy net squad.
Yeah, I think the difference for me is just the availability of the
stars, and also there are young There are more young players in Washington who
are starting to discover their talents a bit more, looking specifically at Denny Ava
who's putting together flashes a bit more consistently, and Ruby Haschimura who seems to
be coming around nicely later in this saw more season for him, Like we
can talk about Chris Buche and Giananobi and Fred van Bleet. But they they've
been playing it. We can for sure they've they've been playing at a higher
level. There's not like I don't think there's another layer for them to plumb
at this late stretch run, quite like there is for some of these rotation
players in Washington who are starting to figure out their roles around Beale and Westbrook.
Here's the thing is the level that the Raptors can get to is their
players are playing together, their best players are playing together. That's their next
level, which I don't like to be understold. And yeah, which five
if they want it, which I'm just not convinced they do yet. It's
and it's it's so strange because like they kept Lowry at the trade deadline,
like you would think that that ushers in a very explicit we're going for this
season mentality that has not been maintained past the trade deadline, right, And
maybe they're trying to do the whole one year tank and re signed Lowry,
have the high draft pick and we move forward and they'll be really good.
But even the new five man unit where you have Siakam, Trent Lowry,
o Gianna Nobi, and Fred van Fleet, they're destroying opponents when they're on
the court together. Flip some of that to include Chris Bruche as like another
big in there that's been destroying opponents since the trade deadline. So I think
they have I guess you're right to frame it that way. Is if they
play their guys, that's their next level, which is they just haven't.
Their best players have not been on the court together this season, and so
maybe I'm the fool who's buying into them. It's just tough looking at the
Pacers have completely disenchanted me this season. Charlotte is dealing with so many,
so many important injuries right now. Vernon Carrey played really well the other night
though, by the way, that was a pick that the Knicks tried to
pick up that I really wanted them too, but that did not work out.
And you know the other team involved in this, like, I'm not
going to trust the Wizards, the Bulls or you have Zach Lavine is going
to miss a little bit of time, which has been fine there. It's
just like they're losing it without Levine. Yeah, yeah, Like that's just
and they're the lineups. I think their best five man lineup is winning the
minutes that it's on the court for. But it's been the other times that
that's been most difficult, even though Daniel Tis has done some really nice things
for them since the trade deadline. So I don't trust Chicago or Washington.
The Pacers have just disenchanted me. So I'm just gonna roll with the Raptors
here, and I'm content to be wrong. I'm not only gonna roll with
the Raptors to be in the play in I think they're gonna get one of
those final two playoff spots in the East. I wouldn't be surprised at all.
Do you think we've we've basically written off the Bulls, which I think
is valid. And the only other team to mention, I suppose is the
Cavaliers, who are three games back of number ten and would have to leap
frog three teams to get there. I can't see that happening. No,
just because there are too many of those teams in front of them are still
trying. Even if you want to play that they'll catch the Raptors just I
mean, they're they're only three bet yeah, they're three back in the lost
colum of the Bulls, but that's like, that's for ten if like you're
trying to get that's what, Yeah, it would be. I'd be shocked
if they were able to do that. Yeah, kudos to them. I
guess we're remaining it in this one. They were like they were like bad
bad for a while and things that Isaaca Coros looked good for them more lately,
I'm still a big context and guy for them. Love and Larry and
ANNs Jr. Are both playing, but I think it's just too little,
too late. That's like an anomaly having both of them available at the moment.
Right. So if you want to dive into this this mail bag,
if we have people listening who want to ask questions or speak, you can
ask us anything about the NBA during this during this segment currently, but we
do have a ton of questions. I'll start with one of them. Let's
go recent events here. Fred asked how significant is Dwayne Wade becoming a stakeholder
in the Utah Jazz It's so hard to know that the answer that without like
any insight into the process. You know, we heard from from pat Riley
and the immediate aftermath of that that when Wade retired they tried to get him
involved in the ownership group and it didn't work. How much do we trust
that? Like, what did that conversation look like? So my answer here
just I think it has to be a non answer because I am not informed
enough to give any semblance of certainty. Here do you do you have like
more legitimate insight into this than I do. He's going to apparently be an
active stakeholder, which I think matters because just looking at if you want to
be a free agency destination or keep your own free agents, if there's just
a marquee guy there that players might be drawn through, like a Donovan Mitchell
and Dwayne Wade, does that help you keep Donovan Mitchell happy long terms?
But he's the guy who's game. Mitchell has been compared to the most and
so I think that gives the Jazz a little bit extra, you know,
market appeal. The other thing I will say that it might be more noteworthy
for is that he discussed having an ownership stake in the heat and I guess
they just never came to terms there, and then Mickey Harrison felt inclined to
like come out and make a statement about it, which I thought was so
stupid. It was just very awkward so I do find more noteworthy that he
ended up becoming a stakeholder with Utah over Miami. I think the only thing
I would add there is, like, does it matter that much? Like
I guess it's nice, But like Shaquille O'Neill was involved with the Sacramento Kings,
who have landed all of the Marquis free agents, right, Like Michael
Jordan has managed to land all of the Marquis free agents in Charlotte. So
like, clearly these big name Hall of Fame players have just this immense impact
when they're involved in ownership groups. I would yeah, the Shack front is
that we might just need to reevaluate how Shack is about about yeah in general,
So yes, yes, agreed, But yeah, I just I don't
know, Like I don't know that Dwayne Wade being involved is going to do
anything to sway Donovan Mitchell. Like if you think if Donovan Mitchell wants to
stay in Utah, he's gonna stay in Utah. If he thinks they can
win a title there, he's gonna stay there. I don't think it.
It can only help them, is my point. I don't see the downside
of having Wade involved and it's like they're raptors touting Drake as a brand ambassador
or whatever. He was right, I think it's something that's fun to talk
about and has almost no bearing. Here's a question that I guess more so
about actual basketball. To Saint Miles, ask how much better has MPJ been
this year than last year? So much better? Just the consistency. The
growth in consistency is astounding. The fact that you could count on him to
get fifteen plus points and shoot better than fifty percent from the field on a
nightly basis is just such a boon for the Nuggets. The fact that he
looks like he's more engaged on defense, even if he isn't always making the
right rotations, like he has been markedly improved on that end. He's been
a tenacious rebounder, He's been a more willing passer. It doesn't look like
he feels the need to hoist up this contested shot every time he touches the
ball, because he knows his touches are limited. He knows that he is
a key part of this rotation and this offensive scheme in particular, and has
acted accordingly done wonders for the Nuggets. Yeah, I'm with you. The
two things that I've noticed is he's done a lot a much better job of
playing within the flow of the offense this season, and I think that's also
where he could stand to expand now. And we'll see if he does get
the chance to do that with Jamal Murray out, And we actually have a
question about that we should probably get to next. Can he do more off
the dribble? And I think he can. He's not like this super quick
guy off the dribble, but he has the size and the handle to do
it. We're probably gonna see him play more two man actions with Nicole Yokich
now that Jamal Murray is gone, So that's something that could help him.
There's a higher offensive ceiling here than we've seen. He's so deadly accurate because
his role is just, I don't want to say easy, but they've streamlined
it a little bit. That has been his concession though, because I do
think he's fully capable more. The defense has been most impressive to me.
I still when you look at the Yoki Porter junior numbers, before Aaron Gordon
came along on defense, they were suspiciously stingy. But you watch Michael Porter
Jr. Probably for the you know, a good chunk of this season.
His help side defense has been a lot better. It feels like he's making
a ton of progress away from the ball, and if you're gonna apply a
lot of power forward, that's going to be huge for them. And so
this is someone who I think it's pretty clear. I don't know if you'll
ever call him a two way player. He might be a two way player
in the sense that Yokich is a two way player where he doesn't destroy your
defense, but he's also not going to make it. He clearly still has
an All Star sealing it. He might have something higher than that. Just
Jamal Murray is clearly the better player. But if there's more that Michael Porter
Junior can do off the dribble and as maybe a playmaker, if there's that
next gear for him, he might be the one that's more likely to make
All NBA. I don't I wouldn't buy into that. I would need to
see more from Porter Junior in a different type of role because I feel like
I'm just crediting the body of work Murray has done. But that's just that's
a wild get for the Nuggets to have. They got it at the end
of the lottery, and it's I think it's huge too because Jamal Murray.
And I'll scroll through and find that question the thing about his injury, and
this is from Kim asked, what should what should Denver hope for this offseason?
How far can they go without Jamal Murray. We can talk about the
impact jam losing Jamal Murray has on this season, but I assume the timeline
for next year, they haven't released it. I think he gets pushed back
a little bit. So you should still get Jamal Murray back. But if
you're operating on or close to schedule, if it takes him a full twelve
months to come back, April's the end of the year, like that's playoff
time on a normal schedule, towards the middle end of that month, So
you're going through basically all year without him. I've seen people predict just based
off the way that Jamal Murray is that maybe he comes back by March first.
That's still just a huge chunk of the season to miss. Michael Porter
Junior is so mission critical to that because I've already said that they're not going
to replace or even find a fact simile of Jamal Murray in one player,
They're gonna have to use a bunch of different players. Michael Porter Junior is
the closest that comes. You need a shot creator, someone who can keep
the ball moving, someone who can hit difficult looks down the stretch, who
can manipulate defenses, have great chemistry with Yokich. They don't defend the same
position, so that's not going to matter as much. Michael Porter Junior comes
closer than anyone else on this roster, more so than Will Barton, more
so than even Aaron Gordon, who's a great playmaker. But when you look
at like his footage from Orlando, he made that lead by doing stuff in
the post, and you could run that in Denver like they're set up to
do that. My thing would just be Jamal Murray was that downhill prober,
and Michael Porter Junior is going to be more maybe even not more likely to
do that. I would still say more likely, but he's definitely has the
better chance of thriving in such a role there, And so I would say
Denver ceiling without Jamal Murray this year. You put them in that five player
that five team race in the West with Utah the two LA teams Phoenix and
Denver. They're probably fifth in that at this point, but they're still fifth.
I don't think they're worse than any of the other teams behind them.
Next year without Jamal Murray, I think they have a chance to still be
an actual contender, maybe not on the same level as Tier one, but
still a Tier two contender without Murray because of what you can still plumb with
Michael Porter Junior, I'm in lockstep with everything you just said there. I'm
a little disappointed you didn't mention Austin Rivers, who, as we know,
is just going to totally take over that Jamal Murray roll right, Did they
officially even sign him? There's been like two rumors that say they're close,
and I haven't seen anything efficient official. I'm not sure, but it seems
like it's at least trending in that direction. Maybe by the time this is
like actually released and not just the live version, it will be. But
no, I mean, like, obviously that's not going to be this game
changing move. I do. I do think that the guard rotation that they
have behind Jamal Murray is good enough that the Nuggets could still sit in that
top five tier. As you mentioned, like Monte Morris has been one of
the better backup point guards in the NBA, and he's capable of taking on
a longer roll. Facunda Compozzo has been a fantastic defensive presence at the point
of attack, which is hugely beneficial to the Nuggets. Will Barton Michael Porter
Jr. Can take and create more shots, so they do have the pieces
to work together and show some ability to replace what was lost with Murray.
But obviously, you know, getting that from five different sources isn't the same
as getting it from one source who has shown the kind of upside that he
has in playoff games. So I don't know that I'm like too concerned about
the Nuggets this season, especially just given how well Yokich has continued to play
and how devastatingly effective they've been with both him and Aaron Gordon on the court,
and given the growth that we've seen from Michael Porter Jr. But yeah,
I think it. I think it matters more next season because being able
to replace him with so many different rotation members is more taxing for the long
haul. Yeah, that's a good point. I'm also wondering if Aaron Gordon
is intrigued enough with the long term potential of Denver that he kind of signs
an extension or defaults to signing a new contract after next year. That's one
plus one because you're not going to have the full The whole thought process here
was, oh, we get two postseasons with the Yoki Murray MPJ Gordon corps
before we have to start making wholesale decisions whether, yeah, they might extend
Michael Porter Junior this offseason. But Michael Porter Junior has a lot of leverage
now, especially with the Jamal Murray and Jeanne argue. He has a good
postseason, his market is the max and it might just be the max anyway.
Yeah, I was coming playing the tax for that. I also think,
just circling back to the Porter discussion, that we have to give some
credit to Mike Maloneire because the way that he handled him has really worked.
You know. I know that there was some frustration that he was being treated
with the training wheels on for much of his rookie season and wasn't really allowed
to blossom until midway through this season. But blossom he has because he's been
empowered to play the kind of basketball that he wants to play and to gradually
fill this bigger role. And I think that the buy in that you see
on defense and the quality of the help rotations and everything on that end of
the floor is a testament to how empowered he feels on offense because he doesn't
have to work for those touches. He doesn't have to try to immediately make
something happen when he receives a rare touch which lands him in the doghouse and
gets him back on the bench like it all goes together. And I think
that the job that Malone and the rest of that staff has done in terms
of player development has really shown itself there. We actually have a few questions
about crunch time play that I think would be smart to leap together Damian Lillard.
That's my answer. Yeah, he's Damion. We do not have a
question about Damian Lillard and crunch time. But the answer in crunch time is
just it's always Damian Lillard. So this comes from mid season p which is
actually a funny there's actually a funny name. Wants to know that the clutch
stats for all of the Clippers players. I don't really want to drone on
about that because I think it would be incredibly boring. Some things I'll note
no One and I found this fascinating. Nicholas Beatum leads the Clippers in total
minutes played this year just overall. That is nothing to do with crunch time.
And I know that's block machine. Nick Patoon to you, by the
way, and I know I know why, like we understand the factors.
But considering where he was in Charlotte the past few seasons, how they just
got him, you know, him being a starter is like was objectively hysterical.
This is just mind blowing if you look at the key players for the
Clippers though, so in crunch time this year and the Clippers overall in the
clutch that's been one of the things that people have hard on. They're twelve
and fourteen, when they play any crunch time games, that record was actually
worse for a lot of the time. You're looking at Kauai in these minutes
is slashing thirty one and twenty and then he get shoots a ninety percent at
the foul line, but he's not getting there. And that's been just one
of the clippers biggest issues is that they don't get to the foul line enough.
Actually don't know how much that hurts them. If you want to criticize
their rim pressure, I think that's fair. Paul George in the clutch twenty
six point one percent shooting overall, twenty one point four percent from three,
shooting one hundred percent from the foul line, but only because he doesn't really
get there. So those are the two guys that you look at and see,
like who's played the or averaging the most minutes. Marcus Morris there shooting
just not shooting a ton and he's only played in fifteen of their crunch games,
but he's you know, sixty seven percent overall, seventy five percent from
three, just not a ton of volume there. That is probably a you
know, a bigger issue is that you have this scattershot sample size with a
ton of these guys. Where Patrick Beverley has only played in twelve of your
twenty six crunch time games. Rondo is shooting zero percent in his three clutch
appearances for the Clippers. In case anyone's wondering, but he's been good for
them. I was as of right now. I still think I don't understand
why they needed to give up as muchs they did to get him, but
it does not look like such an egregious move for both sides. So far,
Serge Ibaka is shooting twenty percent from overall and has missed all his three
point attempts. But again, it's two three point attempts. I just want
to reiterate how small in the sample size is. Can you guess who is
third on the Clippers in crunch time field goals made this season? I'm gonna
go with Luke Kennard almost solely because of one game against the Hawks. No,
it's Reggie Jackson and Terrence Man being tied in crunch time. That was
my next guess. Nicholas Batum leads the team in crunch time three pointers made.
Like that's that's just all of that's just weird, and maybe that's very
weird. It's very weird. And to translate a lot of those numbers,
you know, because we're affiliated with NBA math and we have to explain the
context behind the numbers. Those are bad. Those cats are bad. Are
you sure you're positive this is very positive? I'm positive that those are negative.
The other the other crunch time question we have, how this is from
Ryan Fitzpatrick. I don't think it's the NFL player. If anyone cares,
I'm gonna pretend that maybe he went to Harvard. I'm gonna just pretend that
this Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard. It doesn't matter whether he was an NFL
player. How much better is RJ. Barrett in the clutch than John'sion?
I'm going to assume that they're asking just about this season. I don't think
that RJ. Barrett has necessary early been better than Zion in crunch time.
Zion is slashing, he doesn't take threes, but he' shooting fifty eight point
one percent on his twos and crunch time eighty four point eight percent from the
foul line the Pelicans this season when he's on the floor, and this is
such a small sample size we're dealing with for Zion eighty nine minutes, the
Pelicans have out scored opponents by twenty seven points. In eighty nine minutes of
crunch time play with Zion on the court, RJ. Barrett is shooting fifty
one point one percent overall seven of twelve on threes in the clutch. That's
fifty eight point three percent, eleven of fifteen at the line, seventy three
point three percent. The Knicks in one hundred and eight minutes with RJ.
Barrett on the flour in crunch time have out scored opponents by forty six points,
which is pretty good. John Moran has not been doing as well as
his draft class brethren. He is thirteen of forty one from the floor in
crunch time, including oh of eight from three. That's thirty one point seven
percent overall from the floor, nineteen of twenty seven at the foul eze seventy
point four percent. He is dealing with the smallest sample size here, sixty
eight minutes. That's a fall of him missing time, I think is one
of the biggest things. And the Grizzlies have been outscored by twenty one points
in those sixteen minutes with him on the court. I don't ascribe responsibility to
him for that, but when you're looking at these three roles, you might
be able to say that his performance has been the most troubling relative to expectations.
Zion Williamson has just started being more of a primary playmaker and has been
fantastic, you know, in the clutch for the Pelicans buy and buy.
RJ. Barrett shooting has been reliable in the clutch, even if he's not
playmaking a ton John Morant, like, it's been fine as a passer in
those situations. Fourteen assists but to seven turnovers, not you know, for
the clutch, Like, that's perfectly fine. His perimeter shot this year is
just so. I don't trust as much of his game as I did,
but what he can do off the dribble is passing his vision. This might
just be an anomaly. Even though the Grizzli has been better than expected.
I still am just not prepared to say that RJ. Barrett is better than
John Morant, which I think some people have come around on long term,
though this does feel increasingly like a a fifty fifty proposition. Yeah, I
think so. My initial reaction when I heard the question was that it might
be like that classic case of overvalueing clutch performance because of a few shots that
stick out of the mind, specifically with regards to r J. Barrett,
because to me, it has felt like Zion in particular just gets even more
involved in those late game situations now that he's been empowered to do so,
Like we saw early, very early in the season that he wasn't even on
the floor for some of those crunch time moments or that he wouldn't touch the
ball, but now that he is so involved as the primary ball handler and
facilitator and playmaker, that he's just doing even more in those situations. So
I'm glad the numbers kind of backed that up too. Do you want to
read Ellis Cohen's question? Yeah, So we have a question from locker room
from Ellis Cohen who says, has Mitch Cupcheck rehabbed his image? Hornets drafted
mellow Bridges, PJ Graham, Riller, McDaniels, and Kerry They made the
Rosier and Hayward moves and we're a top four seed when healthy. Randall,
Delo ingram Zoobots Clarkson Nance were also cup Check picks playing well. I'm guessing
that the idea that cup Check needs to rehab his image comes from the last
few years of his Lakers tenure, which did not go very well post Kobe
Bryant retirement and the team really struggling to get anything going. But I don't
know that like there was that much of a need to rehab the image because
he was generally perceived as one of the top basketball minds regardless, And yeah,
I mean, like the moves that he's made have been fantastic, Like
there's a reason that Charlotte has been able to exceed expectations so much that we
were talking about them in the Play and Tournament conversation earlier in this podcast,
even though they've dealt with all the injuries, like it has been good move
after good move. And I would agree that you know, Julius Randall and
gid Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram thriving in other locations is still a testament to
his ability to unearthed talent even if they weren't maximized on his teams. Yeah,
I look, I think a majority of the criticism about cup tract was
sort of how his Laker's tenure ended, where putting yourself on that timeline I've
won, won a championship and then spending all that money on masgov and and
Dang I will say though it probably wasn't talked about. And also by the
way to shout out to Ellis for listening Riller first just on the appreciate So
I if there was doubt that he could still do this, I think he
has rehabed as him as a bit and what's worked out for them too.
Is the Hayward signing just no longer seems as bad even with this injury.
I think it still brings the question up about what does the back end of
this deal look like? But if anything, he's really helped make life easier
for LaMelo Ball when they played together, and I think that's made for a
better learning curve for him. And I think it's interesting that he brings up
the Lakers draft track record because the Lakers have drafted fairly well. It's just
they've given away like a lot of those players for nothing or use them as
a salary dumps. So I guess would would it be fair to say that
cup Check has become underrated as an executive? Is that the way to look
at this? If he was considered bad in the first place, I think
I'm good with that. I don't think he ever should have been. I
mean, every general manager goes through rough periods. I mean we've we've seen
it with with Sam Presty, We've seen Messiah Jerry occasionally miss fire. Like
you named the general manager and you could find a bad signing or a bad
draft pick. It was ultimately always going to be a tough situation to figure
out, because you have to remember that, like they were still trying to
maximize a roster with Kobe Bryant that did not have any right to be maximized,
and in doing so, you create a pickle for yourself and it was
hard to escape. And they made swing for the fences moves like the Moskov
contract that definitively did not work out. But it happens. You don't.
I don't think that should supersed Like an executive who I believe has won seven
championships over the year, but really it's seven. I didn't know is that
high. I think he's been around long enough for it to be because he
was affiliated with the Lakers dating back to yeah, nineteen eighty one. Yeah,
seven time NBA champion. Let's get to this one question from Keith and
then we have a question the chat from Noah. Other than Ben Simmons,
witch guard in NBA history who played as many minutes has taken the fewest three
point attempts? And how many did he take? So I did look this
up. The criteria I used is the first four seasons of their career.
Yes, I know this is year five for Ben Simmons, but he has
only played in four and then they needed to play at least nine thousand minutes
through their first four seasons, and I obviously did it by the three point
era. Otherwise you get a bunch of zeros. I was gonna say,
Bob Kuzy thirty thousand minutes, no three point attempts. Verne Fleming is number
one with the fewest he's taken thirty three. Sidney Montcreef and Ben Simmons are
tied for second at thirty four. Rolando Blackman at fifty is four, and
Joe Dumars is fifth with eighty six. Fat Lever is sixth at ninety two,
and Magic Johnson is eighth. Seventh was Jay Humphreys. Magic Johnson is
eighth with ninety eight, Jim Paxson ninth at one hundred and twelve, and
then Gary Payton is ten. I also sorted this just by three point makes
to see what would come up. Vern Fleming first place again in the fewest
with three three point makes, Sidney montcrief with four, and then Ben Simmons
is third with five. Rolando Blackman is fourth, Packson fifth, Humphrey six,
Magic Johnson is seventh, Kevin Johnson eighth. Ninth is fat lever.
Gary Payton is tenth again here Jordan is twelfth on this if anyone cares about
that. So there's only three players that have made single digit three pointers in
the three point error as a guard while playing as many minutes as Ben Simmons
through their first four seasons. That is Verne Fleming and Sidney Moncrief. Fleming
is the one that stands out to me, especially because his career overlapped a
bit with the shortening at the three point arc and just didn't matter. Pacers
legend. Noah in the chat says the Blazers can't contend with his current core.
I would probably agree who gets who would get? Who gets? Dealt
leaves in free agency first, Nurkic or CJ. McCollum. I mean,
is it? Is it the cob out answer to say that it's Nurkics just
because of how their contracts are structured. McCollum is ultimately on a deal that
extends through the twenty twenty three twenty four season. Nurkics only through next year.
It's not guaranteed, but come on, we know that it's not going
to be declined. Nurki chits free agency two years two years earlier. I
think it's as simple as that, like Portland can still convince itself that if
all of the pieces are healthy, it can try. Because Nurkis hasn't been
available for portions of this season, McCollum has missed time, so I can
see the desire from the Blazer's end to run it back one more time and
then Nurkic hits free agency. So I think that that's the more likely scenario
than them pulling the plug on it by dealing CJ. McCollum. I think
I'm with you too. I don't know. It feels like they'll bet that
they are married to CJ. McCollum and Dame, And so unless Dame changes
that by dynamic by saying he wants out, or they have the opportunity to
acquire and which does not feel likely. No, and that look, it's
fine if we probably criticize that the Rings culture is just annoying to begin with.
But if he just wants to stay there and it's win or bust in
Portland, more power to him. And if Bradley Beale wants to do that
in Washington, we've all collectively decided on his behalf that he's going to Lee
Washington. I think it's just because his free agency is still in the purview
like Dame signs a long term extension, and I do think it's fair to
be like Bradley Beale is clearly equivocating on some level because he went the short
term route, and yes he could have gotten more money by waiting, but
then why not just wait and hit free agency sooner? So I do feel
like there will be equivocation there. But if Dames still wants to stay in
Portland, I don't think they break up the McCullum horn. It's not even
like I agree with you on the contract stuff. And then centers are easier
to approximate. If you have to replace someone with CJ, what are you
doing to get an upgrade from him? I don't know that he's a decided
top twenty five player, but his offense is eminently valuable to you, especially
in the playoffs. He's shown time and again that it translates to the playoffs.
Who are you getting? You have to get and you're if you're get
it, you have to get a top what fifteen guy to pair with Dame
if you're giving him up for it to really be worth it because you're going
to attach someone else or send other things to him to make that move.
And that's why I have long thought, you know, we got to stop
looking at like Portland moving CJ McComb as the move because I don't know even
if they were willing to do it, I just don't know what the move
is that makes you so much better that you're a title contender, which is
why I almost respect I didn't necessarily understand it at the time. After watching
Norm Powell in Portland giving them that really downhill another downhill element to their offense,
I kind of understand them leaning into like, look, we've tried with
Roco and Nurkicsch, even bringing Derrick Jones junior. The defense is fine for
stretches, but long term, we feel destined to be this bottom ten to
five defensive team. We're going to lead into diversifying our offense, and I
totally get that. I think Norman Powell over Trent in that regard might give
them a slightly higher ceiling. I still think it's like, oh, they
won a playoff series. Maybe if things break right too. I don't view
them as a candidate to come out of the West but I don't know what
else they can do, And so even moving Nurkics or letting him walk is
like, Okay, well where do you go from there? It's still and
I'll say the thing that feels like they need they're that star wing short that
still just feels like what it is for them, which is pretty tough to
find given the current situation. But I guess, like as we were talking
through this, I'm wondering if I want to push back a little on the
Blazers can't contend with his current core. Yeah, they're not going to be
the number one seed in the West, They're not going to be the favorite
to come out of the West. But how do we how are we defining
contention? Because to me, like this current core with Lillard, McCollum,
and Nurkics, if the pieces are healthy and if the supporting cast is healthy
around them, I think that Damian Lillard is good enough to single handedly carry
them to a series win against any team in the West. Do you disagree
any team in the West. Yeah, I would disagree with their makeup right
now. I would disagree. I see, I think he can get on
enough of a heater that they can sweak out a series win. Whether they
could do that three times in a row is a different question. But like,
to me, the ability to have a roster where like you still had
the pause before you answered that question, to me, that's contention, Like
it's not like true top level championship contention, but it means that you've constructed
a good enough team that you're giving yourself a chance, right, I think
that's fair. And to clarify, if they would have traded, so here's
how I look at it. If they would have traded for Aaron Gordon instead
of Norman Powell, I would probably be more inclined to call them a contender.
And they're that type of player away, and I think I think the
Norman Powell move is probably again maybe hires their thing a little bit because he
has just more offensive than Gary Trent Jr. Overall, I think they're that,
let's say it, a fringe star away from being a legit title contender.
And that's sort of how I'm viewing this lens where I think you need
to be in the West. I think you need to be top four,
top five right now to be considered in that discussion. But yeah, I
think that the differentiation between legit contender and contender is significant. Yeah, I
mean that's fair. If anyone in the room has some final questions, let's
get to a final one from our actual mail bag. But if anyone else
has any final questions, feel free to ask them in the room and we'll
try and tackle those very quickly. But the players, here's one that's interesting.
I don't know if we could do off the cuff. I think it
just came in and like super recently players, lou Dort statistically resembles. That's
lou Dort the scorer. Now, by the way, who's all of this?
I'm turned into a good shooter. He is shooting thirty four point three
percent from three on the season. I look up his splits more recently,
but they've like sort of bestowed more and he missed some time to everyone in
Oklahoma City's miss time by design at this point though, since late February,
he's shooting thirty nine point one percent from from three on six point six attempts
per game. His actual averages this season or thirteen point six points, three
point six rebounds, one point six assists, one point zero steals, and
Mike I said he is shooting thirty four point three percent from three forty five
point seven percent from two doesn't get the foun line a ton about seventy three
percent from there? Is there is there like a lou Dort type fighter that
comes to mind, not even looking at his numbers, but when you consider
lou Dort, not really he feels pretty unique where I'm not sure I'm willing
to call him a three in D guy because I don't know, like how
much I buy into that three point shot. And he's also just such a
tenacious and versatile and aggressive defender that he doesn't necessarily just fill that wing defense
role that you typically expect from a three in D guy. Like my first
thought was like Tony Allen, but that doesn't really make sense because Tony Allen
was even more of an offensive liability to the point that guys would just entirely
neglect him on the perimeter. And then my head went to like Robert Covington,
but they don't necessarily guard the same type of players. So I'm I'm
just kind of struggling with this one. What about Marcus Smart? I see
how pass another name who came to mind, But then the playmaking just isn't
there. Yeah, that's but the fact that he has no like that was
the third name in my head. Sure, sure, it was way to
just piggyback off everything I say, Adam, that's my out of there.
Is it would it be like I don't even know, like if Marcus Smart
and Tony Allen had a baby, maybe that type deal. Right, Yeah,
exactly, that's perfect, that's perfect. I don't know if that's I
don't know if that's the best way to frame it. If he's gonna have
a next level I would wonder if it's does he finish better at the rim
or is there more of that playmaking element just because he's still he's a really
good player, but there's a chance of the postseason he's still kind of a
you know, teams are guarding him from the three point line now, but
how does that hold up in the postseason. We're definitely not going to find
out this year. Ellis has another question, if you want to read it.
Yeah, so he asked, would you rather give up assets for Miles
Turner or overpay Rashaun Holmes in free agency? Particularly if you're the Hornets?
And I think the only issue I have with this question elis is that it
presumes that you can over pay Rashaun Holmes, which I think might be.
But I think for this, for if we're thinking of this as a Hornet's
centric question, I think the I still want Myles Turner because you have enough
offensive ability already on this roster, where I just I want that defensive menace
who can capably protect the ram and is going to erase mistakes behind LaMelo Ball
and Terry Rogier and Grant Riller and all the other awesome cards they have.
I would say Reshaun Holmes because you can't overpay him. Here's my thing,
what does it take to getting Miles Turner? And I don't know what he's
going to do to kind of solidify your rebounding and Rashaun Holmes is going to
do more than that for you. The fact that he's spaces the floor is
great, but it's three point clips are all over the place. Maybe she's
better in Charlotte. My main advocacy, or my main argument in support of
Reshaun Holmes is he costs you cap space. Miles Turner is going to cost
you draft equity, and I think you can talk to yourself into all right,
whatever players it cost you for Miles Turner of the non LaMelo ball category,
You'll be fine. Are you giving up your pick this year? Are
you giving up? But what you are? I'm what would you use to
pick on that would be better than having Miles Turner on that roster. Here's
my problem though, is that if you're a Hornets team where you feel one
Miles Turner away from something special, I don't know that he nudges your ceiling
more enough. He doesn't nudge it high enough, more so than Rashaun Holmes
to be like, hey, if it costs you, what does it cost
to get Miles Turner? If it costs you two future first round picks?
Which I think it might, because what young players are you giving up in
there? I mean, you have Monk and DeVante Graham are going into restricted
free agency. They're just not entities. Maybe Indiana Ston wants Gordon Hayward,
But are you giving up Gordon Hayward for Miles Turner? That's it. I
don't think you would either, So I would rather if I'm gonna have to
give two first round picks, I mean, or PJ Washington and a first
round pick, you're as the Hornet. It's you're not. You're look in
a vacuum. You're doing it. But if you have the option of paying
Rashaun Holmes or giving up two first round picks or Miles Turner, let's just
frame it that way. I'm picking Rashaun Holmes because one he's really good,
and two the Turner stuff is maybe you like the fact that his contract will
be shorter at that point. Who knows. Maybe Rashaun Holmes on these signs
the two year deal or three year deal anyway, so it's not going to
be that much different to begin with. But I just don't what is the
Miles Turner you have. I guess he trampsformed your defense, but does he
and does he do it enough? He does? Yeah, that's unfair to
Miles Turner. I just the equity. You're not Charlotte Charlotte with Miles Turner
a similar core with Miles Turner. I don't know that they're guaranteed to be
good enough that that draft pick doesn't matter, is my point. I know
we romanticized draft picks, and I'm a Miles Turner is a great NBA player,
But if the alternative is getting Rashawn Holmes, I'm taking Rashawn Holmes that
scenario. Now, if the alternative is if you said, would you trade
for Miles Turner if it costs you two first round picks and a young player
that's not LaMelo Ball at all, Yes, I'm doing that. If that
is the scenario on the table, I'm doing that. When Rashaun Holmes is
the alternative, I'm rolling with rashawnee. I Just my only qualm with that
is that I don't know that Rashaun Holmes, as good as he is and
will be, is a transformative player. Because if you are signing him,
and we're talking about overpaying here him here, which I assume is to guarantee
his arrival in Charlotte, if you're going down that route, you have so
much money locked up in him and Gordon Hayward that I don't think you can
make the ancillary moves necessary to become a contender, like I think you're doing
yourself. Like sure, like it would be great that you're going to be
like a four or five seed in the East year after year with Rishawn Holmes,
but I don't think that you have upside beyond that. And I think
if you're making that move for Miles Turner again, Like, whether it's two
first round picks or PJ Washington in a first round pick, or whatever the
deal may be, you are creating the ceiling as well. My thing with
that is, Miles Turner costs eighteen million to begin with. I think if
you're overpaying Rashaun Holmes, like that's gonna be like I was thinking, like
it's gonna be twenty to twenty two. No, it's it's not just with
the big met Well, I don't want to dismiss you, because I do
think he is at least the name. He's the best center on the market
this summer. So maybe there's a chance that he's well, he's the best
center in a market that's going to have a surplus of money without enough available
players. But if it's if you pay him twenty I don't you know,
that's only a two million dollars difference. It doesn't hamstring you. I think
it would hamstring you more to give up two first and a young player than
losing that extra two million dollars. And all the other thing is I would
need to check this. I'd be willing to guess that Rashaun Holds is averaging
more points per shot on his floaters than Miles Turner's averaging from three, and
so that like floors basing element. I don't know how like huge that is
for. I mean, the volume is there, so like having someone who
does that. But first of all, ver Shaun Holmes might be able to
shoot threes. We saw it. I can't remember it was Filly or Phoenix,
but it happened. He experimented. So I like that we disagree there.
Uh, you'd be interesting if and maybe I'm just saying this to piss
off Noah who's still in the chat, shout out to him. It'd be
interesting if the Knicks just decided, like we need to hire end five Mitchell
Robinson's not the answer, and we're going to be the team that trades a
Miles Turner. That would be like a very that would fit the motif of
what this team is trying to do. It feels like, but that's why
I would I like that we disagree there. I just don't know that there's
enough of a difference. But you would have to tell, like I,
if ra Shown Holmes is gonna cost twenty three million, then maybe it will
come. But if he's gonna be within two millions. I still just I
wonder if Rashaun Holmes as good as he is, and I'm not trying to
diminish how good he is, does he make players better around him, like
I think the Turner can. I think he can in the right situation.
Like I'm thinking about how much easier life is on LaMelo ball if he doesn't
have to worry about his defensive assignments quite as much because he has one of
the league's best erasers behind him, Like that matters for a young guard,
Like think about what we've seen from the Atlanta Hawks with Trey Young and Clint
Capella on the floor together, Like as soon as you have that transformative piece
of the defensive end, everything starts to click on the other end as well
for those young guards. I just don't know if Holmes elevates the rest of
the team quite like having a presence like Turner would, so he has real
role gravity, which Miles Turner just a lot of times he's picking him popping
too, So like that's just not so. I do think he makes his
team better by those extensions, you're the defensive difference is big because Shaun Holmes
is a perfectly confident Ram protector and he can move in space, but Turner's
just a different Yeah, he's top three, top four in that depending on
how you view his mistime this year. He's clearly there. So it's certainly
a discussion. I still think unless Rashaun Holmes is costing you twenty plus,
I'm probably default thing to him. But Noah did say the jokes on me.
He loves Miles Turner, so that would I'm not even necessarily against that
move. It's just something I've considered. This also assumes that the Pacers want
to get rid of Miles Turner this season, which, if you're the Pacers,
are you do you want the future assets that the Hornets are touting just
because are you at that point where you're valuing picks? I think so,
but I'm not sure. I mean, they're not rebuilding, so they would
I feel is there a third team involved? But and you need to tell
me. I think the two things we need to know here, and this
was a great question, apparently ellis just because we're still debating it, is
what is Rashaun Holmes actually costing if you're overpaying him? And then what does
it cost to get Miles Turner? And so if my assumptions were if Rashaun
Holmes cost you twenty million between sixteen and twenty million, and then to trade
for Turner costs you two first, and I think something else. It's obviously
might not need to be salary filler, but you know something, you know?
Is it just another player. I'm probably defaulting to Holmes in that scenario,
but I do think it's a discussion. It's a good one, for
sure. I think that's a good time to get us out if you're on.
Thank you for everyone who who joined us. This was great. We
will be back here next week at four pm on Sunday unless we change the
time, in which case will let everyone know. But thank you all for
listening. Until next time. We leave you all with the shout out to
the one, the only, the uninjured, Brant Riller and I did that
for you, Dad. I appreciate it. MHM.