WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.440 --> 00:00:05.240 No, will it make a new high. I think it will because, 2 00:00:05.360 --> 00:00:15.640 quite frankly, I think we are in a new parabolic advance because bitcoin tends 3 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:22.079 to follow the rules of parabolic equation when it has these advances, and so 4 00:00:22.199 --> 00:00:29.320 we go up in a parabolic curve, which is basically an ever increasing advance. 5 00:00:29.519 --> 00:00:36.520 Parabolic advances mean the advance at an increasingly greater rate, and so early 6 00:00:36.560 --> 00:00:42.200 in the bull market the pace of gain is less than it is later in 7 00:00:42.240 --> 00:00:53.320 a bull market. This content is brought to you by v chain, which 8 00:00:53.359 --> 00:00:59.159 is a leading enterprise grade Layer one public blockchain spearheading a digital revolution from a 9 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:03.799 sustainable, highly scalable smart contract platform. 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I'm your host Tony Edward, and with me today is Peter Brandt, 19 00:01:48.920 --> 00:01:53.879 legendary trader, author and the founder and CEO of Factor Trading. Peter, 20 00:01:53.040 --> 00:01:57.680 great to have you on the podcast. Hey, it's great to be 21 00:01:57.760 --> 00:02:01.280 hones with you. Tony and I both got the memo about black so that's 22 00:02:01.359 --> 00:02:07.480 good. Absolutely, Peter, I'm astatic to be speaking with you. I've 23 00:02:07.480 --> 00:02:10.039 been following you for a long time. I appreciate your knowledge in the markets. 24 00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:14.719 And yeah, it's amazing to have with someone like you on say. 25 00:02:14.719 --> 00:02:17.639 It's an honor and thank you so much for taking the time. Oh no, 26 00:02:19.080 --> 00:02:23.759 I really enjoy it, Tony. Every chance I get, really to 27 00:02:23.080 --> 00:02:29.680 kind of share whatever knowledge people I have that people might find you as fault, 28 00:02:29.960 --> 00:02:35.000 I like to share it because I've you know, I've kind of learned 29 00:02:35.000 --> 00:02:38.319 by my mistakes. Trading is all about making mistakes and trying to learn. 30 00:02:38.360 --> 00:02:44.639 And if I can share things about mistakes I made them, I keep other 31 00:02:44.759 --> 00:02:49.479 people from making the same mistakes. I'm all for that, and I know 32 00:02:49.599 --> 00:02:53.280 that certainly early in my career there's some guys that were in Chicago on the 33 00:02:53.319 --> 00:02:58.719 Board of Trade that really, we're very selfless with me and sharing with me, 34 00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:04.360 and so I kind of look at it as my opportunity to say thank 35 00:03:04.439 --> 00:03:07.719 you to them, even though they're not around anymore. But at least the 36 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:13.680 appreciation of getting wisdom from people that have come before us is always important to 37 00:03:13.719 --> 00:03:16.960 do. I love that. So Peter, tell us about where are you 38 00:03:17.039 --> 00:03:21.479 from? Where did you grow up? I grew up in Minnesota. I'm 39 00:03:21.479 --> 00:03:29.400 a Minnesota guy. I grew up spent my first I think twenty two years 40 00:03:30.039 --> 00:03:38.240 in Minnesota. I grew up in Minneapolis, actually in the city of Minneapolis, 41 00:03:38.280 --> 00:03:40.840 although I spent a hic of a lot of time up in kind of 42 00:03:42.199 --> 00:03:47.240 the boundary waters or the lake area that's kind of wilderness in Minnesota is where 43 00:03:47.280 --> 00:03:53.840 I'd spend my summers. But that's where a group I went to I started 44 00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:58.599 out out of high school. I was an ice hockey player. Wow. 45 00:03:58.639 --> 00:04:05.840 And I played ice hockey for a team that actually last year was number two 46 00:04:05.879 --> 00:04:11.319 in the country in the national championship, Saint Cloud State University. It's a 47 00:04:11.439 --> 00:04:16.560 Division one hockey program, but then decided my junior year it was more of 48 00:04:16.600 --> 00:04:21.120 a party school than it was a real school, and I probably needed to 49 00:04:21.160 --> 00:04:28.160 get an education and something that there actually were jobs for. So I transferred 50 00:04:28.199 --> 00:04:36.720 to the University of Minnesota and got my degree in business marketing advertising type stuff 51 00:04:38.839 --> 00:04:45.279 at the University of Minnesota and from there. And this was back in the 52 00:04:45.399 --> 00:04:51.240 days when jobs were plentiful, unlike today, where these young people have to 53 00:04:51.279 --> 00:04:56.439 be, you know, real selective in what they're going to graduate in because 54 00:04:56.480 --> 00:05:00.959 in some fields, you know, becoming a Starbucks barista is kind of the 55 00:05:01.720 --> 00:05:06.600 education track there on, you know, unless they have some real skills or 56 00:05:06.600 --> 00:05:13.639 they're really grinders and can create jobs for themselves. But so there are plenty 57 00:05:13.639 --> 00:05:17.639 of jobs back then, and I was hired by at the time was the 58 00:05:17.680 --> 00:05:25.600 third or fourth largest advertising agency in the world, handling major, major accounts, 59 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:30.160 very very large accounts, and that was in Chicago, and I was 60 00:05:30.240 --> 00:05:36.199 young by then, I was married, I had a child, We had 61 00:05:36.519 --> 00:05:42.560 our kids, real young, and so we packed up and we moved to 62 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:46.920 Chicago, and I went to work for this advertising agency and worked on the 63 00:05:47.000 --> 00:05:56.360 McDonald's account, worked on Campbell's soup company count craft foods accounts, so we 64 00:05:56.399 --> 00:05:59.720 had some real, real big accounts that we worked on. It was great 65 00:06:00.079 --> 00:06:06.480 variance. But then about three years into that, I had met a guy 66 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:13.279 in Evanston is where we lived in northern suburb just outside of Chicago, and 67 00:06:13.319 --> 00:06:18.839 I met a guy actually through sports programs my kids were in who was a 68 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:25.839 soybean trader, and he invited me to come down and have lunch with them 69 00:06:25.879 --> 00:06:28.639 at the Chicago War to trade. Come on down, Peter, I have 70 00:06:28.839 --> 00:06:30.879 lunch. I think maybe you'll get to kick out of what we do down 71 00:06:30.920 --> 00:06:36.800 here. And I had never traded a stock. I had never traded anything 72 00:06:36.839 --> 00:06:44.160 at that point. I was completely naive about the financial markets. I was 73 00:06:44.199 --> 00:06:47.399 aware there were such a thing as financial markets, and you hear it on 74 00:06:47.000 --> 00:06:51.199 the news that the stock market was doing this or that or another thing, 75 00:06:53.000 --> 00:06:58.800 but really had no knowledge of working knowledge of public markets and how they operated 76 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:02.240 and what they did. And so I'd go down and have lunch with them, 77 00:07:02.279 --> 00:07:05.959 and we'd bet the members dining room on the fifth floor the Chicago Boarder 78 00:07:05.959 --> 00:07:12.680 Trade overlooking with big windows there the trading floor itself, and you look down 79 00:07:12.680 --> 00:07:18.920 and you see they're trading silver and gold, and soybeans and corn and ice 80 00:07:19.040 --> 00:07:25.399 broilers and oats, and it was crazy. I mean it was pandola. 81 00:07:26.680 --> 00:07:30.560 You know, it was just pandemonium down there, you know, and you'd 82 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:34.879 sit there for a while and guys would getting fist fights and push and shove 83 00:07:35.040 --> 00:07:41.800 and yelling and screaming, and I just kind of go like, seriously, 84 00:07:42.040 --> 00:07:46.240 guys do this for a living. I mean, how is that impossible that 85 00:07:46.879 --> 00:07:50.319 guys come down here and they got these old tattered ties, because that was 86 00:07:50.519 --> 00:07:55.120 really you had a word tie, but could have been a bolo tie or 87 00:07:55.160 --> 00:08:00.319 an old tie. And traders on the floors were superstitious, and so they 88 00:08:00.319 --> 00:08:03.480 were wearing the same tie they were wearing twenty years earlier when they happened to 89 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:09.399 have a good day, and you know, in their trading coats. And 90 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:13.839 I kind of went like, wow, this would be a cool This would 91 00:08:13.839 --> 00:08:18.920 be kind of a cool way to make a living. And so I studied 92 00:08:20.040 --> 00:08:24.000 up on it a little bit, just what it was about. I you 93 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:28.000 know, go down to the education center at the Board of Trade or Chicagomercantyle 94 00:08:28.120 --> 00:08:33.519 Exchange. They would have brochures or you know, this was pre you didn't 95 00:08:33.559 --> 00:08:37.639 go on the internet to look for this. Internet didn't exist, but they 96 00:08:37.639 --> 00:08:43.200 had printed brochures and you'd do or books, you'd buy books, and I 97 00:08:43.240 --> 00:08:46.879 was captivated by it. And you know, back then, you know, 98 00:08:46.919 --> 00:08:52.679 there was no MBA fast track. You didn't you didn't get hired out of 99 00:08:52.600 --> 00:08:58.679 Harvard or Yale for a large salary because you had an education degree. Everyone 100 00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:03.919 starts at the bottom. I mean, you started by being an order clerk 101 00:09:05.039 --> 00:09:11.039 or an apprentice to somebody, or an assistant. And but I just felt 102 00:09:11.080 --> 00:09:15.759 like sometimes when you're in your twenties and you're a guy, you feel you 103 00:09:15.799 --> 00:09:18.360 can't fail at anything, that there's nothing you can you can do, you 104 00:09:18.399 --> 00:09:22.679 can get hurt. It was pretty irresponsible of me. Frankly, I didn't 105 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:26.759 have a lot of money in the bank and I had a wife and two 106 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:33.759 kids. I had a rent to pay, food to grow to buy. 107 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:37.279 But I found a grain company, Continental Grain Company. They're not around anymore. 108 00:09:37.320 --> 00:09:41.519 At the time, they were the second largest grain company in the world, 109 00:09:43.399 --> 00:09:48.159 next to Cargil, which is the largest. And you know, they 110 00:09:48.240 --> 00:09:52.279 offered me a six month deal to bring in business. You know, here 111 00:09:52.360 --> 00:09:54.919 you can learn, you can learn the business, but you got to bring 112 00:09:54.960 --> 00:10:00.519 in business. Everyone starts at the bottom. Everybody has to bring in business. 113 00:10:00.600 --> 00:10:03.919 You want to be in the business, bring in business and that's how 114 00:10:03.960 --> 00:10:13.240 you learn. And lucky that I actually brought in as clients Continental Grain, 115 00:10:13.360 --> 00:10:18.559 Campbell Soup Company, and McDonald's and Homestake Mining was at the time was the 116 00:10:18.679 --> 00:10:22.639 largest goal miner in the United States, and so I was able to bring 117 00:10:22.679 --> 00:10:26.559 in business. But then I knew, even then, Tony, I wanted 118 00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:31.240 to be a trader. I didn't want to be what we defined as a 119 00:10:31.279 --> 00:10:35.960 customers man handling customers, because with these customers, I'd get a fraction of 120 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:41.840 a cent for every bushel of corn that they would buy and sell through Continental 121 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:48.919 Grain. And so within a year of doing that, I had replaced the 122 00:10:48.960 --> 00:10:52.600 income I had given up in the advertising business. And you know, everything 123 00:10:52.759 --> 00:10:56.759 beyond that was then gravy at that point. But I knew I wanted to 124 00:10:56.799 --> 00:11:01.240 be a trader. That's what I wanted to do. I didn't want to 125 00:11:01.279 --> 00:11:05.480 be talking to customers. I wanted to be down there in the pits. 126 00:11:05.600 --> 00:11:09.240 I wanted to be yelling and screaming. But you had to learn the business 127 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:16.360 first, and learning how to trade is And when I say trade, I'm 128 00:11:16.399 --> 00:11:18.960 not talking about you come in and you hit bitcoin and you go to the 129 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:24.320 moon, and you know, you cash in and you get a forty x 130 00:11:24.720 --> 00:11:28.639 move or you know, I'm talking about trading as a career. I wanted 131 00:11:28.679 --> 00:11:35.200 to make my steady living as a market speculator, and to do that, 132 00:11:35.279 --> 00:11:39.320 I needed to learn the markets. Then I needed to learn actually how to 133 00:11:39.440 --> 00:11:43.960 trade, and that really was like five year process. And I tell young 134 00:11:45.000 --> 00:11:48.440 guys today, you know, yeah, you can come in and you can 135 00:11:48.480 --> 00:11:58.240 get lucky with game stock, or you can get lucky with bitcoin or ether. 136 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:01.519 But you know, well that's one round. That's one round to a 137 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:05.519 fight. It's still got fourteen rounds left. What are you going to do 138 00:12:05.559 --> 00:12:11.159 that mark speculations of marathon that's now the sprint and who cares how you did 139 00:12:11.240 --> 00:12:16.200 in your last trade. That doesn't mean anything. It doesn't prove anything other 140 00:12:16.240 --> 00:12:20.360 than maybe you're lucky. But how do you how do you make it? 141 00:12:20.399 --> 00:12:24.519 And then how do you learn not to give it back? Right? I 142 00:12:24.559 --> 00:12:28.480 mean we've seen that in bitcoin where we have the huge run ups and then 143 00:12:28.600 --> 00:12:35.559 Bitcoin stalls and you get alt season and you have these big run ups and 144 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:39.720 then it's like a balloon that expands and somebody punctures the balloon and you give 145 00:12:39.759 --> 00:12:43.840 it all back, you know, And I, you know, you got 146 00:12:43.919 --> 00:12:50.200 guys today that they go, they get a ten x move, but then 147 00:12:50.240 --> 00:12:52.879 they give they get a ten x loss and they end up back where they 148 00:12:52.919 --> 00:12:58.480 started. And I didn't want that. So I really needed to learn how 149 00:12:58.519 --> 00:13:01.799 to trade. Like the guys were really good traders traded, and there were 150 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:07.919 plenty. I mean I worked in the Chicago Boarder Trade Building where you know, 151 00:13:07.279 --> 00:13:11.279 half the building were professional traders. These were guys that were the best 152 00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:16.120 at the best of the best at what they did. And you know, 153 00:13:16.200 --> 00:13:20.799 I blew up accounts, I probably, you know, I'd save up money 154 00:13:20.799 --> 00:13:22.960 and Continental let us trade. They let us trade our own account, no 155 00:13:24.039 --> 00:13:28.639 problem with that. Just couldn't front run your customer's orders, you know, 156 00:13:28.720 --> 00:13:31.159 So I couldn't. You know, I'm sitting with an order to buy a 157 00:13:31.200 --> 00:13:35.080 million bushes of weed. I couldn't buy ten thousand bushes for myself and then 158 00:13:35.120 --> 00:13:39.519 stick in the customer order. So you know, there were rule and regulations 159 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:43.960 about that, but not about trading. All that was required is I had 160 00:13:45.000 --> 00:13:48.720 to at least have a ten thousand dollars account I had. They didn't want 161 00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:52.879 me to come in and trade one thousand dollars. I mean I had to 162 00:13:52.879 --> 00:13:58.600 have a ten thousand dollars account to be on deposit and then trade. And 163 00:13:58.320 --> 00:14:03.799 I supposed I blew out three or four, ten or twenty thousand dollars accounts. 164 00:14:05.440 --> 00:14:09.600 And that's the price of learning, because you make a mistake and you 165 00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:15.639 kind of go, Okay, how how can I go with that the next 166 00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:18.720 time? Yeah? You know, in the reality is usually have to make 167 00:14:18.759 --> 00:14:24.320 the same mistake more than once. And you know, I'm fifty years into 168 00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:31.200 this since I've made my first future market trade, and heck, I made 169 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:33.720 a mistake last week. I screwed up a trade big time last week. 170 00:14:35.120 --> 00:14:39.679 You know what happened. But finally, you know, and I tried trading 171 00:14:39.720 --> 00:14:45.720 all kinds of ways. I tried trading on cycles and seasonals. I tried 172 00:14:45.759 --> 00:14:48.720 trading on the news, trying to be a fundamentalist taking a look at the 173 00:14:48.759 --> 00:14:58.360 macro situation. And so I tried a point figure charting. I try to 174 00:14:58.440 --> 00:15:07.000 whole number different ways until I kind of stumbled on a book written in nineteen 175 00:15:07.159 --> 00:15:15.679 forty eight, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John McGee, 176 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:20.480 and I read the book and it just kind of stock. You know, 177 00:15:20.559 --> 00:15:28.120 I had had enough experience trading to know this kind of makes sense to me. 178 00:15:28.879 --> 00:15:33.000 Maybe there's something here for me. And so, you know, that 179 00:15:33.159 --> 00:15:39.759 was nineteen seventy nine when I started looking at charts and what we define as 180 00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:45.039 classical chart patterns, and that really the patterns that were originally identified by Edwards 181 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:52.279 McGhee, but even before that by a guy they named Richard Schabacher who wrote 182 00:15:52.320 --> 00:15:58.399 a book in nineteen thirty three, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, and 183 00:15:58.440 --> 00:16:02.440 that was the original book. Define this is the head and shoulders. This 184 00:16:02.600 --> 00:16:07.440 is a rectangle, This is a tread line how you draw them. This 185 00:16:07.480 --> 00:16:11.879 is an ascending triangle, This is a whole worn this is and this is 186 00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:15.879 what they mean, and this is what's going on in the markets to create 187 00:16:15.919 --> 00:16:22.480 these patterns. They just don't happen haphazardly. They get created for a reason, 188 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:27.320 and what are those reasons? And how do you read those things? 189 00:16:27.399 --> 00:16:33.559 And so it was a matter of just finding my way through. I gained 190 00:16:33.600 --> 00:16:38.799 a little bit of traction trading chart patterns in nineteen seventy nine, and then 191 00:16:40.759 --> 00:16:47.480 nineteen eighty came and I had really my first really good year and good not 192 00:16:47.559 --> 00:16:52.799 only because I hit some really nice markets, but good because I didn't give 193 00:16:52.799 --> 00:16:57.519 it all back. You know, I'd catch a move and I'd capture it. 194 00:16:57.759 --> 00:17:03.000 Sure you give yahwas give profits back at turns? You know I'm not. 195 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:06.039 I don't date trade. I don't believe in day trade. I think 196 00:17:06.119 --> 00:17:11.680 day training is foolish. You know, I hold positions for a couple of 197 00:17:11.680 --> 00:17:15.599 weeks to a couple of months. That for me is kind of my sweet 198 00:17:15.599 --> 00:17:19.599 spot trading, and as futures, I trade futures and crypto and four x 199 00:17:22.319 --> 00:17:26.559 and so you know, it just and it takes a while, and you 200 00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:30.640 need to not just know what the chart patterns are, but you need to 201 00:17:30.640 --> 00:17:37.920 think through sizing and timing because you know there's two components to a trade, 202 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:44.039 direction and timing, and if you get one of those wrong, you're wrong. 203 00:17:44.359 --> 00:17:48.000 You know the trade's wrong. It doesn't matter. Well, I knew 204 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:52.279 this market was going to go from A to B big deal. You know 205 00:17:52.440 --> 00:17:56.039 that you can flip a coin for that. But you know, how do 206 00:17:56.079 --> 00:18:03.079 you get in? And then how do you size the trade? And how 207 00:18:03.079 --> 00:18:06.640 do you manage that trade? And how do you let your profits run? 208 00:18:06.759 --> 00:18:11.960 And you know how do you get out? I'm getting out of a trade, 209 00:18:11.000 --> 00:18:15.160 getting out of a profitable trade. It's probably the toughest trade to make. 210 00:18:15.279 --> 00:18:18.279 I mean, for me, getting out of a losing trades, but 211 00:18:18.039 --> 00:18:22.839 there's no brain that's a no brainer me. It doesn't take much brains for 212 00:18:22.920 --> 00:18:26.960 me to get out of a losing trade. But getting out of a trade 213 00:18:26.960 --> 00:18:30.720 that's a winner. And you got a good trade and the market starts stalling 214 00:18:30.960 --> 00:18:37.599 and you're not sure there's more money left on the table. Here do I 215 00:18:37.799 --> 00:18:41.480 get out? If I get out, will I need to get back in? 216 00:18:42.880 --> 00:18:47.920 Or do I go on and look at something else? And you know, 217 00:18:48.000 --> 00:18:51.039 that's just a trial and error. And for me it was just a 218 00:18:51.079 --> 00:18:59.000 matter of making enough trades. And I figure I've probably made somewhere between the 219 00:18:59.039 --> 00:19:03.960 thirty five thousand and forty thousand trades in my life. Wow, in future 220 00:19:03.039 --> 00:19:07.759 is crypto? Of course, crypto not going all the way back to the 221 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:11.720 nineteen seventies. I'm crypto, you know, going back to two thousand and 222 00:19:12.519 --> 00:19:18.720 fourteen, twenty fifteen. But you know, so you make a trade and 223 00:19:18.839 --> 00:19:25.440 you learn. If you're willing to learn, if you're willing to problem solve, 224 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:27.680 you go, you know, I made the trade and that didn't feel 225 00:19:27.799 --> 00:19:32.319 very well. I got slapped down pretty good. Well why do I get 226 00:19:32.319 --> 00:19:37.319 slapped down? I mean, and so it's just it's it's learning through trial 227 00:19:37.359 --> 00:19:44.039 and error what your best practices are. So that for me is a matter 228 00:19:44.200 --> 00:19:49.440 of best practices. I want to make trades that comply with what I believe 229 00:19:49.519 --> 00:19:55.680 to be the best practices in making trades and getting into trades and getting out 230 00:19:55.680 --> 00:20:00.279 of trades. Quite frankically, it's it's getting It's easy getting in a trade, 231 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:03.000 you know, getting into trade is easy to do. Getting out of 232 00:20:03.039 --> 00:20:07.160 a trade is where the bills are paid and the money is made. So 233 00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:11.319 a question on under trades, and and I know this is this might be 234 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:15.680 a tough question, but on average, what is the ratio of good trades 235 00:20:15.680 --> 00:20:18.079 to bat trades? Because look, bat trades will happen, right, because 236 00:20:18.079 --> 00:20:22.599 things happen. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean having bad trades 237 00:20:22.680 --> 00:20:27.079 that that's that's part of the process of finding good trades. I mean, 238 00:20:27.319 --> 00:20:33.279 I would say to your listeners, they have an emotional problem with losing trades, 239 00:20:33.319 --> 00:20:37.559 they probably out not trade. They ought to probably find, you know, 240 00:20:37.599 --> 00:20:41.599 put their money in a Schwab money market fund or find a good stock 241 00:20:41.720 --> 00:20:47.680 fund or put it into a bitcoin et F and forget your own it. 242 00:20:48.200 --> 00:20:56.160 Because if you're bothered by losing trades, that's that that's a good red flag 243 00:20:56.440 --> 00:21:00.079 not to trade. So it varies, but for the most part, I'm 244 00:21:00.319 --> 00:21:06.359 right about half the time. My going in assumption, Tony is I put 245 00:21:06.400 --> 00:21:08.400 on a trade, I assume it's going to be a loser. That's my 246 00:21:08.559 --> 00:21:12.680 mental attitude. And some people go, oh, you need to have more 247 00:21:12.720 --> 00:21:17.880 hope, Peter, you need to have you need to have positive expectations, 248 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:22.759 feel good about yourself. That's a bunch of bunk, you know, because 249 00:21:22.799 --> 00:21:26.759 I want to I want to start thinking defensively from the minute I get into 250 00:21:26.880 --> 00:21:30.119 trade. So I assume this trade is going to be a loser, and 251 00:21:30.200 --> 00:21:33.960 for the most part it is now in reality, if I go back and 252 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:41.480 I keep really really good statistics on my trade. I'm obsessed with keeping metrics 253 00:21:41.640 --> 00:21:51.000 about my trading, and so I'm basically right about fifty four percent of the 254 00:21:51.079 --> 00:21:53.680 time, wrong about forty six percent of time. I'll take a loss on 255 00:21:53.759 --> 00:22:00.599 a trade, but I watch my losses. Uh, you know, I 256 00:22:00.680 --> 00:22:10.279 will only risk about six tenths of one percent of my capital, So I 257 00:22:10.440 --> 00:22:14.160 have X amount of dollars that I consider I can employ this. I can 258 00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:18.519 buy bitcoin with it, I can use it to buy stock, I can 259 00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:22.599 use it for margins on a four x trade. I can use it for 260 00:22:22.759 --> 00:22:27.319 margins and trading corn futures, soybean futures. And this is my block of 261 00:22:27.319 --> 00:22:33.759 money. This is my pot of money. And so so if I, 262 00:22:33.880 --> 00:22:37.839 let's say, have a million and a half dollars at my pot of money, 263 00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:41.759 I'll only risk six tens one percent of that on the next trade. 264 00:22:41.839 --> 00:22:48.880 On the next trade I do. And so you know that's that's basically about 265 00:22:48.960 --> 00:22:52.240 nine you know, about nine thousand dollars. So I'll put on the trade. 266 00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:57.480 I'll risk nine thousand dollars to start with. Now, my goal when 267 00:22:57.519 --> 00:23:03.079 I put on that trade, aid is I want to I want to move 268 00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:07.400 to break even on that trade as quickly as I can, hopefully within a 269 00:23:07.440 --> 00:23:11.160 week. I mean, I really like even if I can do it in 270 00:23:11.200 --> 00:23:15.240 a few days, where I can adjust my and I always use protective stops. 271 00:23:15.279 --> 00:23:19.720 Now, guys that say don't use protective stops because you're gonna get stopped 272 00:23:19.759 --> 00:23:23.240 out and then the market's going to go your way, it happens sorry, 273 00:23:23.240 --> 00:23:26.559 it happens. You know, I can't tell you a number of times I've 274 00:23:26.599 --> 00:23:30.720 been long long something and it got stopped out at the low tick of a 275 00:23:30.799 --> 00:23:34.759 day. I mean, it's it. It's part of trading. Welcome, 276 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.279 Welcome to living. So you have to take accountability. You got to own 277 00:23:40.359 --> 00:23:45.920 your trades. Can't blame it on its manipulation. And the wheels came in, 278 00:23:45.160 --> 00:23:49.839 they tried to dump me. Take ownership, Yeah, because I tell 279 00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:53.880 you, take ownership, you'll never own it. And so but I look 280 00:23:53.960 --> 00:23:57.440 at it and say, hopefully within the three or four days, I can 281 00:23:57.559 --> 00:24:03.480 adjust my stops and I can move my stops where you know, I'm instead 282 00:24:03.519 --> 00:24:08.000 of losing nine thousand dollars, maybe I'll only lose three thousand if it goes 283 00:24:08.039 --> 00:24:12.000 against me, or even come to the point where I can move my stops 284 00:24:12.039 --> 00:24:18.519 and break even. And you know. So you know, and I remember 285 00:24:18.599 --> 00:24:22.000 back the old guys, and I'm talking about when I joined the Board of 286 00:24:22.039 --> 00:24:26.200 Trade. The season guys in the pit were World War Two veterans. I 287 00:24:26.200 --> 00:24:30.759 mean, these were guys that were born in the nineteen twenties that were in 288 00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:34.000 their prime trading in the pits. When I started in the pits. These 289 00:24:34.079 --> 00:24:40.000 were late guys in their late forties early fifties that had a lot of success 290 00:24:40.079 --> 00:24:45.000 in trading, and they were just you'd ask him, what's the secret, 291 00:24:45.279 --> 00:24:48.920 And to a man, they'd say, cut your losses short, let your 292 00:24:48.960 --> 00:24:53.319 winners run. Now, the devil's in the details of that, twenty of 293 00:24:53.400 --> 00:24:57.440 course, right, I mean cut your losses short. What does that really 294 00:24:57.519 --> 00:25:00.400 mean practically? You do? You know, how do you do that? 295 00:25:00.759 --> 00:25:06.359 You know, what's what's the technique or the principles or the rules by which 296 00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:12.119 losses get cut short and let your profits run? So what does that mean? 297 00:25:14.599 --> 00:25:19.240 And so you have to kind of go through a process of self discovery 298 00:25:22.200 --> 00:25:26.720 for what your own mentality is and you know what you're able to put up 299 00:25:26.720 --> 00:25:33.279 with emotionally, and and you know, that's a process that takes It takes 300 00:25:33.359 --> 00:25:40.079 time. It's self education. It takes time to get there. So by 301 00:25:40.240 --> 00:25:44.480 you know, eighty had a good year. Eighty one I just had a 302 00:25:44.599 --> 00:25:48.799 giant here. And you know, nineteen eighty one, I gave up all 303 00:25:48.839 --> 00:25:52.039 the customer business I had. I sold a bit, I sold the customer 304 00:25:52.119 --> 00:25:59.640 business to another broker, and you know, put a eight thousand dollars into 305 00:25:59.680 --> 00:26:04.319 a train account and incorporated Factor Research and Trading as a clearing member of the 306 00:26:04.400 --> 00:26:11.039 Chicago Boarder Trade and no rest was history. Right. Eighties were great years, 307 00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:17.920 And I look back and I don't take credit that it was my own 308 00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:22.079 intelligence that got me there. I just think I had some good tutors. 309 00:26:22.119 --> 00:26:26.880 I had some people who invested in me, gave me really wise advice, 310 00:26:30.759 --> 00:26:36.960 and I happened to be in the best commodity markets that have ever been in 311 00:26:37.119 --> 00:26:41.640 history, and that was in the nineteen eighties, the single best trending markets 312 00:26:41.759 --> 00:26:48.119 ever for future markets. And so kind of like the guys that have been 313 00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:52.839 in crypto in the last five six years, right, I mean, they 314 00:26:52.960 --> 00:26:59.920 came in to markets that were just absolutely incredibly beautiful. So lucky enough to 315 00:27:00.039 --> 00:27:06.720 participate in those markets early on in the nineteen eighties, and you know, 316 00:27:06.839 --> 00:27:14.319 built up a good size account and you've learned to a couple losses short and 317 00:27:14.440 --> 00:27:19.720 I learned to let my profits run and so it's it's been a good run. 318 00:27:21.480 --> 00:27:23.480 Like I said, this is the fiftieth year. This year marks the 319 00:27:23.519 --> 00:27:29.519 fiftieth year since I traded my first futures contract, and that was a few 320 00:27:29.599 --> 00:27:36.279 years contract in bags of pree nineteen sixty five silver coins that had ninety percent 321 00:27:36.480 --> 00:27:42.079 silver content, and that was the first silver contract futures contract trade in the 322 00:27:42.240 --> 00:27:48.000 US. And so, you know, I kind of pinched myself that I've 323 00:27:48.000 --> 00:27:55.960 been able to make a living doing what I'm doing, and it's you know, 324 00:27:56.039 --> 00:28:00.119 I've I've had some losing years. I think I've had. Last time 325 00:28:00.160 --> 00:28:03.640 I looked at it, I think through that time, I've had, of 326 00:28:03.640 --> 00:28:11.039 course, many losing trades. I mean, probably twenty thousand losing trades in 327 00:28:11.079 --> 00:28:18.279 the process, but I've had four losing years. I think they've averaged about 328 00:28:18.400 --> 00:28:26.039 maybe down five percent. My worst losing year was actually two thousand and fourteen 329 00:28:27.000 --> 00:28:32.839 was my worst losing year in my trading history, and I was down fourteen 330 00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:41.799 percent. But I've had a lot of good winning years. I've had all 331 00:28:41.880 --> 00:28:48.759 my performance added it and I've you know, I've managed to average a little 332 00:28:48.759 --> 00:28:55.920 bit north of forty percent a year during that time, and so the markets 333 00:28:56.000 --> 00:29:03.599 have been good to me. And twenty eleven, I happened to publish a 334 00:29:03.640 --> 00:29:06.759 book. John Wiley and sons wanted me to write a book by trading. 335 00:29:06.839 --> 00:29:08.920 I wrote a book in twenty eleven, did a lot of work. You 336 00:29:08.920 --> 00:29:12.640 don't make money writing books. But they wanted me to write a book and 337 00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:18.200 I published and part of that they had me go on Twitter. They set 338 00:29:18.279 --> 00:29:22.200 up a Twitter account for me. And prior to then, I was unknown, 339 00:29:22.480 --> 00:29:26.960 you know, prior to twenty eleven, nobody really knew who I was. 340 00:29:26.160 --> 00:29:32.799 I had operated for decades as just a private trader. Like most of 341 00:29:32.839 --> 00:29:36.759 my peers, I mean, most of my peers think I'm crazy for having 342 00:29:36.759 --> 00:29:40.160 a social media presence. Say, what are you doing, Peter, that's 343 00:29:40.599 --> 00:29:44.839 why are you doing that? But so I got involved in Twitter primarily to 344 00:29:44.880 --> 00:29:48.759 promote the book. And what a crazy world. I guess you call it 345 00:29:48.960 --> 00:29:52.960 x now, but what a social media What a crazy world that is? 346 00:29:53.319 --> 00:29:57.079 So, Peter, question on that because you brought up a great point and 347 00:29:57.440 --> 00:30:03.279 given your plethora of experience, and how do you see social media that dynamic 348 00:30:03.359 --> 00:30:06.680 playing out in markets now? Because you see game Stop in AMC, you 349 00:30:06.720 --> 00:30:11.720 see meme coins right where people are now crowdsourcing and they can have an agenda, 350 00:30:11.799 --> 00:30:15.720 they can have pulled their capital together. Have you seen anything like that 351 00:30:15.720 --> 00:30:21.720 in the history of your time trading? No, I think you know that's 352 00:30:21.880 --> 00:30:26.079 new to these small stocks. That happened as small, and it's new even 353 00:30:26.119 --> 00:30:33.319 there, I mean game Stock and Robin Hood. I think the professionals who 354 00:30:33.319 --> 00:30:36.440 would be my peers on the stock market side, you know, they were 355 00:30:36.480 --> 00:30:41.519 flabbergasts that all these little guys operating from a PC in their mom's basement were 356 00:30:41.559 --> 00:30:48.279 able to you know, take them out of their short positions in some of 357 00:30:48.279 --> 00:30:52.440 these stocks, right, I mean, because just the volume and ganged up 358 00:30:52.480 --> 00:30:57.759 upon them. Yeah. So, you know, in the last ten years, 359 00:30:57.799 --> 00:31:03.519 both through things like robin Hood and game Stock and then crypt Bitcoin of 360 00:31:03.559 --> 00:31:08.559 course, and then the olt coins and all the memes and all of that, 361 00:31:08.799 --> 00:31:14.519 it's it's you know, it's a brand new world. I mean, 362 00:31:14.240 --> 00:31:19.119 I feel I feel kind of fortunate because on one end of my career as 363 00:31:19.160 --> 00:31:22.799 a book nd, which is the beginning of futures trading, right, I 364 00:31:22.799 --> 00:31:27.599 mean, when I started futures, there were not goal futures. US citizens 365 00:31:27.599 --> 00:31:32.599 could not trade gold futures, I could not trade silver Bollian futures. They 366 00:31:32.599 --> 00:31:40.519 could not trade foreign exchange futures, they could not trade a treasury yield futures, 367 00:31:40.559 --> 00:31:45.200 stock index futures. Those weren't around when I started. And so there 368 00:31:45.200 --> 00:31:48.200 at one end and at the other end, I've got this you know, 369 00:31:49.079 --> 00:31:55.559 bookend, which is cryptos that I've been able to live through this whole period. 370 00:31:55.680 --> 00:32:00.119 Now I'm seeing cryptos which aren't crazy. So you know, we've we've 371 00:32:00.119 --> 00:32:05.200 got a lot of new blood that have come into the world of market speculation 372 00:32:05.480 --> 00:32:09.519 through you know, stocks like game Stock, and you know, coming in 373 00:32:09.599 --> 00:32:16.319 through Robinhood and you know, and na Vidia, and through the alt coins 374 00:32:16.400 --> 00:32:22.960 and bitcoin and memes and so forth. There's a lot of new players. 375 00:32:22.599 --> 00:32:30.480 But my guess is in the end there'll be a blowout rate that'll be similar 376 00:32:30.519 --> 00:32:35.839 to what the blowout rate was in futures traders back in the nineteen seventies, 377 00:32:35.960 --> 00:32:38.720 where for every one hundred people that came in, there's probably only going to 378 00:32:38.759 --> 00:32:44.880 be two or three that will merge and say they can make a whole career 379 00:32:45.000 --> 00:32:50.920 in market speculation up here. Obviously you've been training for a long time, 380 00:32:51.039 --> 00:32:54.359 you know, wealth knowledge, what keeps you going? And why do you 381 00:32:54.400 --> 00:32:59.359 want to keep trading? How coming you're not, you know, somewhere on 382 00:32:59.400 --> 00:33:02.400 the beach tired. I would love to. I just I'm genuinely curious about 383 00:33:02.400 --> 00:33:07.359 that. You know, why are you still well? For one thing? 384 00:33:07.359 --> 00:33:10.640 I love it? I mean The markets are in my mind, the ultimate 385 00:33:10.680 --> 00:33:17.680 and try and trying to beat yourself. Uh, My competition's not the markets, 386 00:33:17.759 --> 00:33:22.759 is not another trader. It's not the exchanges. It's not the manipulator, 387 00:33:22.799 --> 00:33:28.839 is it not. Uh, it's not some bank that's rigging the silver 388 00:33:29.000 --> 00:33:32.880 market. It's you know, it's not the whales. It's it's how do 389 00:33:32.960 --> 00:33:38.000 I it's self mastery? How do I? How do I? How do 390 00:33:38.079 --> 00:33:45.640 I overcome the inner demons that try to sabotage me in every turn? The 391 00:33:45.720 --> 00:33:52.880 hopes of Greer is the fomo, the the emotions? How do I? 392 00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:55.160 How do I excel? So, you know, I would say for me, 393 00:33:55.240 --> 00:33:59.400 at the beginning, it was kind of the excitement of guys yelling and 394 00:33:59.440 --> 00:34:02.319 screaming, as well as the money they made. I mean, the parking 395 00:34:02.319 --> 00:34:08.599 lots of the border trade were filled with Porsches and Mercedes that would drive up 396 00:34:08.679 --> 00:34:15.159 the Gold Coast to mansions and lake forests and monetca. And so it was 397 00:34:15.199 --> 00:34:22.559 the money that these guys were making that appealed to me. And now it's 398 00:34:22.840 --> 00:34:29.880 being really good, it's it's I've just found for me that I've been able 399 00:34:29.920 --> 00:34:35.400 to break down kind of every aspect of what has to go into the process 400 00:34:35.400 --> 00:34:42.920 of trading for myself from what what charting platforms do I use? How do 401 00:34:43.039 --> 00:34:50.800 I most excellently use analysis? What's excellence and analysis look like? What's excellence 402 00:34:50.840 --> 00:34:58.760 and order management look like? What's excellent and post trading performance metrics look like. 403 00:35:00.079 --> 00:35:05.480 So it's for me, it's the challenge of being being better this year 404 00:35:05.519 --> 00:35:09.639 at what I do than I was last year, believing that if I pursue 405 00:35:09.679 --> 00:35:16.360 excellence and I'm obsessed about details, that the money will come out at the 406 00:35:16.519 --> 00:35:22.480 end and it just becomes up as a byproduct. It's not my goal in 407 00:35:22.559 --> 00:35:28.760 terms of trading. I've got a lot of physical limitations to me, Tony. 408 00:35:28.840 --> 00:35:32.440 I fell off a house in nineteen eighty four and spent forty one days 409 00:35:32.440 --> 00:35:40.880 in the hospital to relearn how to walk, and so my mobility is not 410 00:35:42.159 --> 00:35:46.239 great, and so I'm not out on the golf course or walking beaches. 411 00:35:46.320 --> 00:35:52.199 For me. If I walk, I need a walker. If I want 412 00:35:52.199 --> 00:35:54.559 to walk with my wife, I need an electric card. And so you 413 00:35:54.599 --> 00:35:59.800 know I've got I've got limitations that kind of keep me in front of me 414 00:36:00.239 --> 00:36:02.159 in an office anyway, not in front of a screen. I don't like 415 00:36:02.239 --> 00:36:06.440 being glued in front of a screen. I hate screens. I want to 416 00:36:06.480 --> 00:36:09.159 turn my screens off during the day. I don't want them on because having 417 00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:14.199 them on, I believe, leads me to bad decisions. And so it's 418 00:36:14.320 --> 00:36:21.559 what are all of the things that can't optimize to the degree possible my ability 419 00:36:21.639 --> 00:36:27.559 to succeed as a market speculator, and what are the things that will interfere 420 00:36:27.639 --> 00:36:30.440 with my success? For me, one of those things that will interfere with 421 00:36:30.480 --> 00:36:36.920 my success is letting my emotions getting involved in decision making. And that's exactly 422 00:36:36.960 --> 00:36:43.000 what happens when you turn on a screen and you don't like what the hourly 423 00:36:43.079 --> 00:36:45.840 chart looks like. So you go to a five minute chart and you don't 424 00:36:45.920 --> 00:36:50.159 like what that looks like. So you go to a weekly chart and you 425 00:36:50.280 --> 00:36:52.920 keep looking until you find a trade. Well, I don't want to find 426 00:36:52.960 --> 00:36:54.719 a trade. Don't want trades to find me. You know. I only 427 00:36:54.760 --> 00:36:59.119 want to do two trades a week. And that's my goal going in is 428 00:36:59.440 --> 00:37:05.039 I want to be able on average to put on two new trades. Somewhere 429 00:37:05.039 --> 00:37:08.960 between one hundred and one hundred and twenty new trades a year is what I 430 00:37:09.079 --> 00:37:15.159 want. And so I kind of know what those trades are going to look 431 00:37:15.280 --> 00:37:21.119 like on a chart, and you know, so I'm looking at all the 432 00:37:21.199 --> 00:37:27.159 major cryptos. I don't look at all coins. I think I have no 433 00:37:27.239 --> 00:37:30.000 interest in all coins. I have no interest in memes. You know, 434 00:37:30.000 --> 00:37:36.199 I'm interested in four or five of the crypto coins, mainly only Bitcoin, 435 00:37:36.280 --> 00:37:40.199 however. And then the futures markets. I trade global futures, you know, 436 00:37:40.519 --> 00:37:46.800 everywhere from then Nikai Dao and the Osaka stock exchange to corn at the 437 00:37:46.840 --> 00:37:52.960 border trade, to gold at the comex, to bitcoin spot. I trade 438 00:37:52.960 --> 00:38:00.000 bitcoin Spot, and so you know, there's probably a list of forty markets 439 00:38:00.320 --> 00:38:02.719 I look at every every weekend, and that's when I do my work. 440 00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:10.079 Which one is your favorite to trade? If you weren't all time, it 441 00:38:10.079 --> 00:38:15.000 doesn't exist that they phased out the market. Last year it was euro dollar 442 00:38:15.079 --> 00:38:20.440 futures, which is basically the interest rate of holding US dollars in Europe, 443 00:38:21.239 --> 00:38:23.920 similar to the T bills. It's a t baill rate, but it's the 444 00:38:24.519 --> 00:38:30.519 equivalent of t bail rates for dollars held out of the country. And that 445 00:38:30.639 --> 00:38:35.679 for me, was a wonderful market because it trended so well, with such 446 00:38:35.719 --> 00:38:43.880 a good trending market that I liked it. I like grains simply because that's 447 00:38:43.960 --> 00:38:46.960 where I got my start. I got my start on the floor trading corn. 448 00:38:47.800 --> 00:38:52.920 So I'm from the Midwest, you know, where you can't go anywhere 449 00:38:52.960 --> 00:38:59.840 without driving through cornfields, and so I like the grain markets. I like 450 00:39:00.079 --> 00:39:06.880 currency markets, and surprisingly enough, I not only like holding bitcoin. It's 451 00:39:06.920 --> 00:39:15.920 the only asset really that I hold that i'd buy and I haven't even looked 452 00:39:15.960 --> 00:39:20.320 at the bitcoin I hold. I don't mean pay any attention to it. 453 00:39:21.000 --> 00:39:24.840 But also I'm an active trader in bitcoin. I will a whole separate pot 454 00:39:24.880 --> 00:39:30.559 of money. I like trading bitcoin. I think bitcoin is a great charting 455 00:39:30.679 --> 00:39:36.360 market. But so I would say bitcoin is probably right up there as one 456 00:39:36.400 --> 00:39:40.119 of my favorite markets to move in and out of, but really as a 457 00:39:40.159 --> 00:39:45.159 swing trader. So so Peter, since we're on bitcoin, would if you 458 00:39:45.159 --> 00:39:50.519 wouldn't mind shure your charts, what you're seeing from bitcoin and your outlook. 459 00:39:51.599 --> 00:39:57.400 Sure you know I had heard a bitcoin, Tony. I mean you know 460 00:39:57.639 --> 00:40:01.239 you're not frequently. Bitcoin wasn't talked about much. I mean you younger guys 461 00:40:01.320 --> 00:40:06.519 knew about dcoin outs older guys. It was just something out there that we'd 462 00:40:06.559 --> 00:40:09.559 hear and what a bitcoin is? Computer money? And some guy bought a 463 00:40:09.599 --> 00:40:14.119 pizza with it somewhere, some guy bought a pair of shoes with it. 464 00:40:14.239 --> 00:40:20.280 Some electronic computer money someone invented. I mean, that's what I thought. 465 00:40:21.119 --> 00:40:27.000 And then they're pretty active, pretty well known guys. Name is Raoul Paul 466 00:40:27.079 --> 00:40:30.760 as a friend of mine. He lives down in the Caymans. And Raoul 467 00:40:30.920 --> 00:40:37.000 sent me a chart of bitcoin in twenty sixteen, and he emailed me a 468 00:40:37.119 --> 00:40:42.159 chart and said, Peter, look at this chart and tell me what you 469 00:40:42.199 --> 00:40:45.400 think about it. And I opened this chart of bitcoin and went, holy 470 00:40:46.039 --> 00:40:52.559 crap, this is a butte. And so I almost immediately called and said, 471 00:40:52.599 --> 00:40:54.679 how do I buy that? I didn't know how to buy how do 472 00:40:54.719 --> 00:40:58.960 you buy a bitcoin? I had no idea about buying a bitcoin, even 473 00:40:59.039 --> 00:41:07.559 man Tony, I no idea whatsoever. But bitcoin was somewhere around five hundred 474 00:41:07.599 --> 00:41:13.199 bucks plus from my hundreds fifty bucks hanging around in that neighborhood. And Raoul 475 00:41:13.320 --> 00:41:17.000 set me up with a company that he was using at the time for purchasing 476 00:41:17.039 --> 00:41:22.719 bitcoin. So I didn't I mean, initially, I think I called my 477 00:41:22.800 --> 00:41:29.920 broker and this guy by bitcoin and buy what So I bought bitcoin, and 478 00:41:29.920 --> 00:41:37.239 that was in twenty sixteen, March or April twenty sixteen, and yeah, 479 00:41:37.320 --> 00:41:45.519 so the rest is history. But I take let me, let me. 480 00:41:45.599 --> 00:41:51.079 I'll pull up a couple bitcoin charts and I'll kind of give you a macro 481 00:41:51.320 --> 00:41:55.880 view, because what I really want bitcoin is I want to have a narrative, 482 00:41:57.840 --> 00:42:05.039 and I'm not dogmatic. I don't go like I'm going to go through 483 00:42:05.320 --> 00:42:10.199 a few charts. I'll kind of talk through them if you have questions. 484 00:42:10.480 --> 00:42:15.320 Uh, you know, some of these charts are going to show you kind 485 00:42:15.320 --> 00:42:21.239 of They're the charts I keep for myself. They're not charts I necessarily publish 486 00:42:21.280 --> 00:42:25.440 because there's such a disaster. I got so many marks and scribbles on them 487 00:42:25.519 --> 00:42:30.320 that they get, they get. They get pretty messy after a while. 488 00:42:30.400 --> 00:42:34.239 But at least I have numbers on there that mean something to me, and 489 00:42:34.280 --> 00:42:44.280 I'll kind of try I'll try to talk through it. I really have I 490 00:42:44.360 --> 00:42:50.519 have. I like to have narratives in my mind and then I like to 491 00:42:50.559 --> 00:42:54.679 say, Okay, this is what I see happening. Now I need to 492 00:42:54.719 --> 00:43:00.199 see prices support this narrative, because I'm not going to let my narrative dictate 493 00:43:00.440 --> 00:43:05.159 what I do in the markets. I want the markets to dictate my narrative, 494 00:43:05.239 --> 00:43:09.639 not the other way around. And so I try to formulate narratives in 495 00:43:09.719 --> 00:43:16.320 my mind that makes sense of price, and then I can use then rolling 496 00:43:16.440 --> 00:43:22.559 forward and what we have in bitcoin, if you go back to bitcoin and 497 00:43:22.639 --> 00:43:25.920 take a look at the history of bitcoin, you'll see a couple of different 498 00:43:25.920 --> 00:43:30.400 things. Kind of show them on this chart and talk to them. But 499 00:43:30.679 --> 00:43:37.480 what you have in bitcoin is you have these bull markets that are multiple x 500 00:43:37.599 --> 00:43:42.320 moves, you know, twenty x, fifty x, one hundred x price, 501 00:43:42.760 --> 00:43:49.599 these big multiplications of price, and you have these big bull markets and 502 00:43:49.719 --> 00:43:59.760 Bitcoin that form parabolic curves. They're governed by parabolic curves. Not just parabolic 503 00:43:59.800 --> 00:44:05.760 curve, but they're governed by parabolic curves on the log chart. And so 504 00:44:05.880 --> 00:44:13.280 in bitcoin, what you see is we had a parabolic move in twenty eleven 505 00:44:13.480 --> 00:44:22.519 to thirteen, another parabolic can move in to the bull market that topped out, 506 00:44:22.880 --> 00:44:29.559 then again in twenty fourteen, another parabolic move that topped out in December 507 00:44:29.719 --> 00:44:36.719 twenty seventeen, and another parabolic move that topped out well, some people say 508 00:44:36.760 --> 00:44:40.079 it topped out in February March twenty twenty one, though we made a slightly 509 00:44:40.159 --> 00:44:46.159 higher high than in November. So but nevertheless, the parabola was broken at 510 00:44:46.199 --> 00:44:50.519 the first top. And so what do you have in bitcoin? If you 511 00:44:50.559 --> 00:44:54.360 explain is people, what does bitcoin do? Say? Bitcoin is an asset 512 00:44:54.719 --> 00:45:02.880 has these bull markets that multi by price many times. Many times. When 513 00:45:02.960 --> 00:45:09.320 those bull markets are over, you have very prolonged bear markets that correct eighty 514 00:45:09.360 --> 00:45:14.880 percent of the price of the bull markets. And that is the behavior of 515 00:45:14.960 --> 00:45:21.079 bitcoin. Bitcoin behaves that way. It had a three one hundred and ninety 516 00:45:21.079 --> 00:45:27.079 one X move followed by a ninety four percent correction in the two thousand and 517 00:45:27.159 --> 00:45:31.800 eleven to twenty thirteen bull market. Then I have five hundred and seventy two 518 00:45:32.119 --> 00:45:39.559 X move followed by an eighty seven percent correction, then one hundred and twenty 519 00:45:39.599 --> 00:45:45.320 two X move followed by an eighty four percent correction, then the twenty two 520 00:45:45.679 --> 00:45:52.199 X move followed by approximately seventy eight percent correction. So you'll have Bitcoin that 521 00:45:52.280 --> 00:46:00.000 has these huge bull markets that then have massive corrections that correct more than seven 522 00:46:00.000 --> 00:46:04.760 twenty percent of the price, and corrections that last a long period of time 523 00:46:04.840 --> 00:46:09.400 before we see a new all time high. That we went after the first 524 00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:15.519 big parabolic bull market was twenty one months before we made a new high. 525 00:46:15.840 --> 00:46:21.480 Mark went sideways for twenty one months, and we broke another parabolic move, 526 00:46:21.960 --> 00:46:28.119 and for forty one months we didn't see a new high, another parabolic move 527 00:46:28.280 --> 00:46:35.199 topping in twenty seventeen, thirty six months before we saw a new all time 528 00:46:35.360 --> 00:46:40.000 high. And now we have a situation where we broke the bull market back 529 00:46:40.039 --> 00:46:46.480 in April twenty twenty one, by my and when you look at bigcoin and 530 00:46:46.559 --> 00:46:54.000 an adjusted adjust inflation adjusted basis, we still haven't taken out that high. 531 00:46:54.559 --> 00:46:59.679 Wow. And so everybody here recently have talked about this new all time high 532 00:46:59.719 --> 00:47:02.440 buil coin. I don't quite frankly buy it. I mean, sure, 533 00:47:02.519 --> 00:47:07.280 by a couple thousand dollars, you made a new all time high, but 534 00:47:07.440 --> 00:47:12.280 for the most part, we're right where we were in April twenty twenty one, 535 00:47:12.920 --> 00:47:16.679 and then again in November twenty twenty one, Bitcoin had not made a 536 00:47:16.719 --> 00:47:22.000 new high. Now in thirty eight months, you know, will it make 537 00:47:22.039 --> 00:47:27.400 a new high? I think it will, because, quite frankly, I 538 00:47:27.519 --> 00:47:36.840 think we are in a new parabolic advance. Because bitcoin tends to follow the 539 00:47:36.920 --> 00:47:43.280 rules of parabolic equation when it has these advances, and so we go up 540 00:47:43.320 --> 00:47:51.280 in a parabolic curve, which is basically an ever increasing advance. Parabolic advances 541 00:47:51.400 --> 00:47:58.880 mean the advance at an increasingly greater rate, and so early noble market the 542 00:47:58.920 --> 00:48:04.079 pace of gain is less than it is later in a bull market. But 543 00:48:04.239 --> 00:48:07.679 quite frank say, that's where I think we are. That we've had this 544 00:48:07.800 --> 00:48:14.559 thirty eight month period without making a new high. Yeah, we'd made one 545 00:48:14.639 --> 00:48:17.159 by a few thousand bucks, but I'm not counting it that way. But 546 00:48:17.280 --> 00:48:23.519 that we have this parabolic advance that I believe will go forward. Now where 547 00:48:23.599 --> 00:48:29.280 will it go from here? And I'm going to show you another chart which 548 00:48:29.360 --> 00:48:35.280 kind of lays out the rest of the narrative of the current bull cycle that 549 00:48:35.320 --> 00:48:37.760 we're in, because I believe that's what we're in. We're in a bull 550 00:48:37.880 --> 00:48:45.199 market cycle that will continue. And it started at the November twenty twenty too 551 00:48:45.360 --> 00:48:52.599 low, and so we are now what five six, seven, nineteen months 552 00:48:52.599 --> 00:48:58.079 into it, but from the low. Now having is a big deal in 553 00:48:58.159 --> 00:49:04.199 bitcoin. Everyone talks about in bitcoin. Let me just show you one other 554 00:49:04.320 --> 00:49:09.679 thing for why I think I'll come back to this, the correction that we're 555 00:49:09.719 --> 00:49:15.760 seeing in bitcoin right now, is a correction that I've seen over and over 556 00:49:15.840 --> 00:49:20.679 and over again. It just seems to be a correction that we have all 557 00:49:20.719 --> 00:49:22.960 of the time in bitcoin. Sorry, I have to kind of play with 558 00:49:23.000 --> 00:49:29.480 this chart to get it the way I want to, but it's this pattern 559 00:49:29.599 --> 00:49:35.000 in bitcoin where you get a high and then you just chop. You get 560 00:49:35.000 --> 00:49:38.159 people fomoing on new high, and then you dump them out. You know, 561 00:49:38.239 --> 00:49:43.440 you correct, you bait people in, you get people to fomo, 562 00:49:43.800 --> 00:49:46.159 then you dump them out, you get weak lows, which is really kind 563 00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:50.480 of where we are. It's what I refer to on Twitter as kind of 564 00:49:50.559 --> 00:49:54.880 the hump, slump, bump, dump, pump, and that's exactly what 565 00:49:54.960 --> 00:49:59.360 we have. We had the pump, the hump, the slumps, the 566 00:49:59.480 --> 00:50:01.559 bump, and then we had the dump. Now we think we do the 567 00:50:01.599 --> 00:50:07.199 pump. And this is, you know, very characteristic. And if you 568 00:50:07.280 --> 00:50:10.800 go back in the previous bull cycles in bitcoin, Tony, like the bull 569 00:50:12.199 --> 00:50:17.039 market cycle that we had in twenty sixteen, you'll see this pattern over and 570 00:50:17.079 --> 00:50:22.719 over and over again. It just reoccurs. Sure, so it looks like 571 00:50:22.159 --> 00:50:28.639 your next target up is around eighty something thousand, Yeah, I think so. 572 00:50:29.000 --> 00:50:34.559 But now I want to show you something that happens at having. There's 573 00:50:34.559 --> 00:50:37.920 a couple other people that have written about it. For the most part, 574 00:50:37.079 --> 00:50:43.400 it's something that I have followed. But if you take a look at having 575 00:50:43.800 --> 00:50:46.599 where we aren't having, and you take a look at where having is and 576 00:50:46.679 --> 00:50:52.320 but in bull market cycles, something absolutely amazing takes place. Now, whether 577 00:50:52.360 --> 00:50:57.880 it continues or not, I'm not sure, but you have to assume that 578 00:50:58.119 --> 00:51:01.719 it probably does. At least you have to in your initial hopes on that 579 00:51:01.719 --> 00:51:08.159 that having takes place had exactly the halfway point between the low that started the 580 00:51:08.199 --> 00:51:14.679 bullmarket in the eventual bull market high. Is if you take that bull cycle 581 00:51:15.159 --> 00:51:21.639 and look at the having halving took place exactly halfways. You had seventy five 582 00:51:21.760 --> 00:51:25.960 bars before the having seventy five bars to the high after after the having, 583 00:51:27.880 --> 00:51:34.880 then we had the bullmarket that topped out in November of October November of twenty 584 00:51:34.920 --> 00:51:40.000 one, where from the low to the having was exactly halfway seventy four bars 585 00:51:40.320 --> 00:51:45.960 to the having seventy five bars to the top. Wow. And if you 586 00:51:45.119 --> 00:51:51.719 look at where we are right now at the having from the low point that 587 00:51:51.800 --> 00:51:58.400 we had back in November of twenty twenty two and the having that suggests to 588 00:51:58.599 --> 00:52:04.119 me that that is going to be the halfway point. We're just a having 589 00:52:04.719 --> 00:52:09.920 process pause, which we've had before. We've with the Marcus drifted side sideways 590 00:52:09.960 --> 00:52:14.599 at the Having point in the past, and that we have a top that 591 00:52:14.719 --> 00:52:19.719 comes into Bitcoin. It was seventy three bars into the Having, now will 592 00:52:19.800 --> 00:52:23.320 be seventy three to seventy five bars out to the Having. We should top 593 00:52:23.360 --> 00:52:28.360 out in the middle of September. Now where do we top out? I 594 00:52:28.559 --> 00:52:32.239 just project. I just look and take a look at the parabolic curve and 595 00:52:32.320 --> 00:52:37.159 say we are going to top out based on the parabola, and so I 596 00:52:37.280 --> 00:52:40.760 just think, okay, we're going to be somewhere in the one twenty five 597 00:52:40.880 --> 00:52:50.039 to one fifty area relative to the parabola seventy four bars weekly bars after the 598 00:52:50.119 --> 00:52:54.719 Having point. So that kind of becomes myst mester narrative. Now I'm looking 599 00:52:54.760 --> 00:53:00.840 at that narrative and it's driving me. Now there's another narrative that I'm looking 600 00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:05.719 at that really conterdicts this. And so I am not the kind of trader 601 00:53:05.800 --> 00:53:07.840 that says I'm going to make up my mind once and no one's ever going 602 00:53:07.920 --> 00:53:13.119 to convince me I'm wrong. I mean, I want to have a reason 603 00:53:13.280 --> 00:53:17.480 to believe what I want to believe, but I also want to know what 604 00:53:17.559 --> 00:53:22.159 do guys on the other side of my trade believe. I mean, I 605 00:53:22.199 --> 00:53:27.039 got to believe that there's some really, really smart people that are not thinking 606 00:53:27.159 --> 00:53:30.079 like me, that think something's going to happen quite different. And these aren't 607 00:53:30.119 --> 00:53:35.679 idiots, they're smart guys, and they're not willing to place their bet the 608 00:53:35.719 --> 00:53:43.119 way I do. And there's something in bitcoin that really has kind of begun 609 00:53:43.239 --> 00:53:47.440 to bother me. And let me show you what that is. And what 610 00:53:47.519 --> 00:53:55.239 I call it is exponential decay. The bitcoin market has been subject to exponential 611 00:53:55.360 --> 00:54:02.880 decay, meaning that each success of made your bull cycle in bitcoin has been 612 00:54:04.159 --> 00:54:12.679 substantially decayed in robustness from the previous bullmarket cycle. That if you go back 613 00:54:13.119 --> 00:54:17.920 to the bullmarket cycle that ended in two thousand and eleven, we had approximately 614 00:54:17.960 --> 00:54:25.280 a three thousand x move. Correct. Now, the next bullmarket cycle lost 615 00:54:25.440 --> 00:54:32.239 eighty percent of its power because eighty percent of the three thousand x move gave 616 00:54:32.360 --> 00:54:37.480 us approximately a five hundred and seventy X move, So we had an eighty 617 00:54:37.559 --> 00:54:45.239 percent exponential decay in the energy of the bullmarket that ended in the December of 618 00:54:45.239 --> 00:54:52.920 twenty thirteen compared to the previous cycle, same thing happened with the bullmarket into 619 00:54:52.960 --> 00:54:58.079 the two thy seventeen high. It was one hundred and twenty two x move, 620 00:54:58.440 --> 00:55:06.000 again, approximately an eighty percent decay, exponential decay relative to the previous 621 00:55:06.079 --> 00:55:12.360 cycle. And lo and behold in the bull market cycle that broke the parable 622 00:55:12.440 --> 00:55:17.559 of finally in twenty twenty one, at a twenty two x move represented an 623 00:55:17.559 --> 00:55:22.800 eighty percent decay, and the energy of the market. Now, if you 624 00:55:22.960 --> 00:55:29.119 take that same decay and you say that it is not this having that is 625 00:55:29.199 --> 00:55:32.320 going to be the narrative that will carry the day, that the having takes 626 00:55:32.360 --> 00:55:37.480 place at the halfway point, and that the parabola continues from the halfway point 627 00:55:37.719 --> 00:55:43.760 to the end of the cycle. But instead you adopt the narrative of exponential 628 00:55:43.840 --> 00:55:50.039 decay, market's already top. Oh wow, that you take an eighty percent 629 00:55:50.119 --> 00:55:54.559 decay of the last bull market gives us basically somewhere between a five and six 630 00:55:55.039 --> 00:56:02.519 x advance from the low we had at approximately fifteen thousand dollars back down here 631 00:56:02.559 --> 00:56:08.920 in November twenty two. Is really what an exponentially decayed bull market would look 632 00:56:09.039 --> 00:56:15.800 like in bitcoin, and that would bring prices up into that seventy to seventy 633 00:56:15.880 --> 00:56:21.960 two thousand level. We've seen that, and so somebody's a liar here. 634 00:56:22.239 --> 00:56:27.400 This is kind of like two people saying I'm telling you the truth and somebody 635 00:56:27.400 --> 00:56:30.840 else is saying I'm telling you the truth, and the having theory, the 636 00:56:31.000 --> 00:56:37.320 having narrative has raised his hand and said, Tony, believe me on the 637 00:56:37.360 --> 00:56:40.679 truth. Sayer, we're halfway through the bull market. We've got a big 638 00:56:40.719 --> 00:56:45.960 bull yet to come. We still have fifty four weekly bars till the end. 639 00:56:46.920 --> 00:56:52.199 But then you have exponential decay. Raise his hand and say, no, 640 00:56:52.639 --> 00:56:55.719 it's really not that way. There's a whole different way to look at 641 00:56:55.800 --> 00:57:02.360 it. And that way is that we've already topped and will now see a 642 00:57:02.400 --> 00:57:08.719 ball tread, and then there are some ways that you can actually look at 643 00:57:08.800 --> 00:57:15.320 that find it. So yeah, Peter, I absolutely appreciate that you're giving 644 00:57:15.480 --> 00:57:20.800 both scenarios because sometimes many investors only look at one scenario, but you have 645 00:57:20.840 --> 00:57:23.199 to look at all because you never know what could play out. And like 646 00:57:23.239 --> 00:57:28.599 you said, there's diminishing returns here each cycle. The data doesn't lie, 647 00:57:29.000 --> 00:57:32.519 so the possibility of a top already being in there is there, It's just 648 00:57:32.760 --> 00:57:37.880 it's about probabilities which one is likely to play out? Right? Right? 649 00:57:37.000 --> 00:57:40.199 And so what I want to look at is the shorter term price. You 650 00:57:40.239 --> 00:57:44.920 know, is there a chance? Can I get a clue from other charts? 651 00:57:45.360 --> 00:57:47.679 Can it get a clue from weekly charts? Can I get a clue 652 00:57:47.719 --> 00:57:52.519 from bull under bands? Can I get a clue from other things? That 653 00:57:52.599 --> 00:57:57.440 will tell me? Uhh, the market is showing its hand. Where's the 654 00:57:57.599 --> 00:58:00.719 tell? It's like playing poker, trying to figure out the tell of my 655 00:58:00.840 --> 00:58:05.639 opponents. The opponents be in the market itself, trying to figure out what 656 00:58:05.639 --> 00:58:08.960 the market's telling me. Because now if you look at this where we have 657 00:58:09.519 --> 00:58:15.760 the entire bull history of bitcoin as a parabolic curve on a log scale, 658 00:58:15.639 --> 00:58:23.079 but you also have an upper parabolic curve which tends to suggest exponential decay, 659 00:58:24.320 --> 00:58:30.440 which tells me that, hey, I believe in the Bitcoin story. I 660 00:58:30.639 --> 00:58:37.039 buy it. I buy the story that fiat currencies are doomed, that Bitcoin 661 00:58:37.199 --> 00:58:45.920 has a chance to emerge here as an important store of value, that it 662 00:58:45.039 --> 00:58:50.639 has a great story to be told. If you look at all the characteristics 663 00:58:50.639 --> 00:58:53.800 of bitcoin, it has a great story to be told why it can emerge 664 00:58:53.840 --> 00:59:00.519 as as a l one store of value in the global financial scheme of things. 665 00:59:00.639 --> 00:59:05.840 Right. So, but if you look at this, this tends to 666 00:59:05.920 --> 00:59:14.199 support the concept of exponential decay in that we're topping out against the upper parabolic 667 00:59:14.280 --> 00:59:19.320 curve, which tells me that they're truly bitcoins going to a million. Like 668 00:59:19.400 --> 00:59:23.000 some people say, bitcoins a million, ballocks too many? You name your 669 00:59:23.039 --> 00:59:27.440 products? Who cares? Who cares what it is You're going to blow out 670 00:59:27.559 --> 00:59:34.119 through the top of this upper red parabolic curve. And that is how I 671 00:59:34.239 --> 00:59:37.840 will know that bitcoins going to a million. Ah, that's that's interesting. 672 00:59:38.000 --> 00:59:42.639 So, Peter, do you think and this is where, like you, 673 00:59:42.880 --> 00:59:46.079 I'm trying to figure out as a bitcoin holder an investor, you know, 674 00:59:46.239 --> 00:59:52.679 are those narratives that going to million legit? Because it would take something incredible, 675 00:59:52.760 --> 00:59:57.320 right maybe ets, maybe central banks holding bitcoin where it breaks out of 676 00:59:57.360 --> 01:00:01.559 this parabolic curve. Would it take a catalyst like that? Yeah, I 677 01:00:01.920 --> 01:00:08.840 mean I don't know. I mean, basically, the US dollar is the 678 01:00:08.920 --> 01:00:14.119 number one one, l one layer of store value in the in the in 679 01:00:14.159 --> 01:00:16.960 the global economic scheme of things, right, I mean it's one, It's 680 01:00:17.000 --> 01:00:27.960 the major global reserve currency. And so what happens where the US dollar gains 681 01:00:28.039 --> 01:00:37.159 such disrepute that they're a whole new currency scheme that somehow gets created all of 682 01:00:37.199 --> 01:00:40.920 a sudden. The price of oil, the price of real estate, the 683 01:00:40.960 --> 01:00:52.159 price of gold, the price of hard assets gets expressed as a bushel basket, 684 01:00:52.480 --> 01:00:55.880 which is twenty percent the price of crude oil twenty percent, the price 685 01:00:55.920 --> 01:01:01.000 of gold twenty percent, the value of the dollar twenty percent, the value 686 01:01:01.000 --> 01:01:06.480 of bigcoin ten percent, the euro currency, whatever it is, you know, 687 01:01:06.519 --> 01:01:10.159 figure it out, make it up. Is that Bitcoin gets included in 688 01:01:10.280 --> 01:01:20.880 a master currency basket that really represents going forward the new world order, you 689 01:01:20.920 --> 01:01:27.119 know, or at least an important player. You know, it gets wider 690 01:01:27.599 --> 01:01:32.960 acceptance as a place. Now. You know, most Americans their store of 691 01:01:34.039 --> 01:01:37.320 value, whether they admit it or not, as US dollars, because when 692 01:01:37.360 --> 01:01:42.039 they liquid data and asset, they return to dollars. It's their return, 693 01:01:42.280 --> 01:01:45.599 it's their home base, right, Their home store value is the US dollars. 694 01:01:45.599 --> 01:01:49.840 They sell a stock, it goes back into US dollars. They cash 695 01:01:49.880 --> 01:01:54.480 out on a treasure bill goes back in the US dollars. And I think 696 01:01:54.519 --> 01:01:59.559 you're in a generation where people are now starting to think, I don't want 697 01:01:59.559 --> 01:02:04.239 to really be holding you US dollars. I'm more comfortable with anything that's not 698 01:02:04.360 --> 01:02:08.599 employed in the stock market, or a venture capital deal or a private equity 699 01:02:08.719 --> 01:02:14.480 deal, or a stock I'm in love with, like Navidia or Apple Computers 700 01:02:14.599 --> 01:02:20.400 or Robinhood Counts, or an apartment building that they're trying to buy to own 701 01:02:20.599 --> 01:02:29.920 rental real estate that they returned they returned to bitcoin, and that bitcoin is 702 01:02:30.400 --> 01:02:32.679 forced its why I mean think of this way. I lived through the nineteen 703 01:02:32.760 --> 01:02:40.079 eighties, which your audience probably isn't going to relate to, but it was 704 01:02:40.119 --> 01:02:46.239 a period in corporate America where we had hostile takeovers where a group of investors 705 01:02:46.320 --> 01:02:52.920 felt like a company was undervalued. You had a big company that was selling 706 01:02:52.960 --> 01:02:57.400 at a share price that was less than the sum of its parts. That 707 01:02:57.480 --> 01:03:01.840 you could buy a corporation and break it up. You could break it up 708 01:03:02.039 --> 01:03:07.280 to its individual parts and sell it off, own it for a year and 709 01:03:07.360 --> 01:03:14.239 make thirty to forty percent. Because these corporations back in the early nineteen eighties, 710 01:03:14.800 --> 01:03:17.840 most of the Dow Jones in a large portion of the S and P 711 01:03:19.079 --> 01:03:22.840 corporations were selling at a share price it was less than the book value per 712 01:03:22.920 --> 01:03:28.719 share. They were cheap relative to the some of their parts. So yet 713 01:03:28.840 --> 01:03:34.000 hostile takeovers. The board of directors and the management of these companies weren't players. 714 01:03:34.000 --> 01:03:37.679 They were being bought up by these hostile people. These hostile people demanded 715 01:03:37.719 --> 01:03:44.000 a seat on the board of directors, They demanded changes that they were trying 716 01:03:44.000 --> 01:03:49.039 to take over these corporations so they could break them up and sell off some 717 01:03:49.159 --> 01:03:52.639 of their parts. They were being opposed by the management of the company. 718 01:03:52.039 --> 01:03:57.079 That in effect is kind of what we have. Bitcoin is a hostile takeover 719 01:03:57.719 --> 01:04:03.280 of the economic Fiat system system, and it's not well accepted by the people 720 01:04:03.320 --> 01:04:08.920 in the board room and in government. And that's why it's a hostile takeover, 721 01:04:09.400 --> 01:04:14.800 because it's it's an attempt to redefine what the currency is that is not 722 01:04:15.039 --> 01:04:18.960 wished for by central banks and governments, and so it's being forced upon them, 723 01:04:19.559 --> 01:04:23.800 and it's being forced upon them and they're fighting against it. In the 724 01:04:23.920 --> 01:04:28.800 end they're going to lose the fight, I think. So a great perspective 725 01:04:28.840 --> 01:04:31.559 there, and you know, we'll have to see you out with the future 726 01:04:31.639 --> 01:04:36.000 holes. But I like you. I'm fascinating to see you know, what 727 01:04:36.079 --> 01:04:42.079 will be the catalyst to drive Bitcoin outside this parabolic curve or it just stays 728 01:04:42.119 --> 01:04:45.360 within it. And it's not a million dollars by twenty thirty, right, 729 01:04:46.320 --> 01:04:51.159 it's just maybe a narrative out there that people are using. Yeah, yeah, 730 01:04:51.320 --> 01:04:57.079 well, you know, we're going to enter the world of quantum computing, 731 01:04:57.360 --> 01:05:02.920 and you put quantum computing together with artificial intelligence, and you know, 732 01:05:04.039 --> 01:05:09.000 fifteen years ago people wouldn't have imagined that we could have this thing called bitcoin. 733 01:05:11.800 --> 01:05:16.239 Bitcoin was created by the world of computers. Who knows? Is bitcoin 734 01:05:16.320 --> 01:05:23.039 the highest form of intellectual attainment that we can make in the monetary system? 735 01:05:24.119 --> 01:05:27.679 I don't know if I want to make that belt sure you know that I'm 736 01:05:27.679 --> 01:05:34.440 going to bet against the creativity and imagination of humanity of very smart people who 737 01:05:34.440 --> 01:05:40.239 want to employ AI and quantum computing to come up with something even better. 738 01:05:43.039 --> 01:05:47.000 And so you know, who knows. Who knows what the Bitcoin of the 739 01:05:47.079 --> 01:05:53.039 year twenty thirty five is going to be. But I'm going to allow for 740 01:05:53.079 --> 01:05:56.679 the fact that there may be something that I don't know about right now. 741 01:05:56.840 --> 01:05:59.119 I'm not going to be a live for it. So I'm not worried. 742 01:06:00.559 --> 01:06:02.920 Now. I know you trade e theorem as well, would you be able 743 01:06:02.960 --> 01:06:08.440 to show us if you have any charge for ETH? Yeah, I do, 744 01:06:08.559 --> 01:06:12.360 and I'm I'm I'm kind of an ETH hater. I get a lot 745 01:06:12.360 --> 01:06:19.000 of grief on I get a lot of grief on social media for not being 746 01:06:19.079 --> 01:06:25.599 an enthusiastic youth person. But I'm not and I'm not because I've dealt with 747 01:06:25.719 --> 01:06:30.280 the I've you know, you need ETH to get involved in some of the 748 01:06:30.320 --> 01:06:35.480 other things that the Internet has to do. It's a cumbersome thing. I 749 01:06:35.840 --> 01:06:45.840 think ETH is in the first place. I think the they claim it's decentralized, 750 01:06:45.840 --> 01:06:47.559 Now, that's a bunch of bunk. It's not. I mean, 751 01:06:48.159 --> 01:06:57.039 bitcoin is if you take all of the viable these central crypto coins, Bitcoin 752 01:06:57.119 --> 01:07:00.880 has liken five percent share of the mark. You know, it is the 753 01:07:00.960 --> 01:07:08.360 decentralized coin. And I personally think that the future can belong to decentralized crypto. 754 01:07:09.159 --> 01:07:12.840 And well, ETH makes the claim it is. It seems like ETH 755 01:07:13.000 --> 01:07:15.440 is always saying, well, if you don't like Ether, they're coming out 756 01:07:15.440 --> 01:07:17.920 with another version. I mean, whenever you got to come out with another 757 01:07:18.119 --> 01:07:23.159 version of things, Hey, you're admitting that what you had before is broken. 758 01:07:23.960 --> 01:07:28.039 And so that's the story of youth. Well wait for eighth version two, 759 01:07:28.159 --> 01:07:32.039 wait for ETH version three. You know the best is yet to come. 760 01:07:32.280 --> 01:07:39.559 Well that's pretty pathetic story. So I just I'm I like ETH because 761 01:07:39.599 --> 01:07:43.039 whenever I want to defend my bitcoin position, I look to sell it. 762 01:07:43.119 --> 01:07:46.800 I want to short it. I do not short spot crypto, you know, 763 01:07:46.880 --> 01:07:53.480 I only will short futures contracts, and so I will look to ETH 764 01:07:53.639 --> 01:07:57.920 when I'm a little bit nervous. I don't like to take short term capital 765 01:07:58.000 --> 01:08:00.679 gains. I want all my bitcoin transact since it possible to be long term 766 01:08:00.760 --> 01:08:06.400 capital gains. And so if I'm close to a long term capital gain tritment 767 01:08:06.639 --> 01:08:12.159 on a bitcoin purchase, I don't want to, you know, eleven months 768 01:08:12.199 --> 01:08:15.559 into the ownership sell it and take a short term capital gain on it. 769 01:08:15.199 --> 01:08:18.239 You know, I want long term capital gains. So there have been occasions 770 01:08:18.239 --> 01:08:25.359 when I've short at E futures against my bitcoin is kind of a hedge of 771 01:08:25.479 --> 01:08:33.640 protection. I'm just not I'm not an enthusiastic ETH user. I think there's 772 01:08:33.680 --> 01:08:38.439 going to be a lot of disasters come up. You know, we've seen 773 01:08:38.479 --> 01:08:45.239 a lot of big bankruptcies already in in the crypto world. It's been a 774 01:08:45.359 --> 01:08:48.880 history of them. The crypto world has been a history of fraud, it's 775 01:08:48.920 --> 01:08:55.840 been a history of bankruptcies. It's been a history of big failures, and 776 01:08:55.920 --> 01:09:00.119 when they're failures, they seem to be big failures. I think that this 777 01:09:00.159 --> 01:09:03.439 whole staking thing is going to be a disaster. There's going to be horror 778 01:09:03.520 --> 01:09:08.439 stories. It will come out, and it'll come out of the whole staking 779 01:09:09.199 --> 01:09:12.239 endeavors that are going on right now. In the first place, I don't 780 01:09:12.279 --> 01:09:16.880 think the US government's going to allow staking forever because it's really competition. The 781 01:09:16.920 --> 01:09:20.600 government's going to say, you're earning interest on an asset. Now, it's 782 01:09:20.640 --> 01:09:26.399 not US dollars. You're not buying treasure bills, You're not buying a CD 783 01:09:26.680 --> 01:09:32.039 issued by local savings and loan. You are buying an interest bearing instrument. 784 01:09:32.920 --> 01:09:39.600 And interest bearing instruments need to be governed by the Federal Reserve Bank and the 785 01:09:39.680 --> 01:09:45.079 Treasury. And so just as the SEC has attacked some of these cryptos as 786 01:09:45.159 --> 01:09:55.560 being securities and not cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are, I think we've got a world 787 01:09:55.560 --> 01:09:59.439 ahead of us where we're going to have a lot of failures and disasters that 788 01:09:59.560 --> 01:10:06.199 will be link to the whole Web two, Web three, staking worlds. 789 01:10:06.359 --> 01:10:12.039 So I would advise people, know where your money is. You know, 790 01:10:12.079 --> 01:10:15.000 it's like, hey it's it's eight o'clock. Know where your kids are, 791 01:10:15.079 --> 01:10:20.039 right, I mean, hey it's twenty twenty four. Know where your money 792 01:10:20.199 --> 01:10:24.760 is. So for sure, Peter, I know I kept you over time. 793 01:10:24.920 --> 01:10:29.319 I got some wrap up questions here for you. First. Yeah, 794 01:10:29.399 --> 01:10:36.920 well I should say it's rapid fire questions versus favorite food I got. I 795 01:10:36.960 --> 01:10:44.439 gotta go with pizza. I gotta go with pizza. And favorite musician are 796 01:10:44.479 --> 01:10:54.840 bad. That's hard for me because I like all kinds of music. You 797 01:10:54.880 --> 01:11:00.359 know, when I go to my radio stations and do shuffle, I never 798 01:11:00.439 --> 01:11:06.239 know what's gonna come up, YouTube or some new band. It's it's I've 799 01:11:06.239 --> 01:11:19.079 got I've got quirky tastes in music. Favorite movie, favorite movie, Wow, 800 01:11:27.439 --> 01:11:30.640 gonna pass on that one. Not a big movie, not a big 801 01:11:30.680 --> 01:11:38.159 movie watcher. How about favorite book? Bible? And when you're not doing 802 01:11:38.159 --> 01:11:40.840 any trading and things along those lines, what are you doing for fun? 803 01:11:42.159 --> 01:11:45.039 I bike ride, and I can't bike ride because I have a I can't 804 01:11:45.079 --> 01:11:47.880 walk. It's hard for me to walk. But when I'm on my bike, 805 01:11:48.800 --> 01:11:54.359 my postures leaned forward and I can hold the weight of my torsa with 806 01:11:54.439 --> 01:11:58.760 my handlebars. So I bike a lot. I do two three hour bike 807 01:11:58.840 --> 01:12:02.199 rides. I'll bike third forty miles when I go bike it. So that 808 01:12:02.359 --> 01:12:06.920 for me is the exercise. And I do play some racket sports only because 809 01:12:06.960 --> 01:12:12.640 again, if you're playing racket sports, the correct body posture and playing rock 810 01:12:12.680 --> 01:12:15.239 Colt sports is your bend at the waist, which is how I walk. 811 01:12:15.439 --> 01:12:18.600 I you know, I'm one of those old guys that you see at the 812 01:12:18.640 --> 01:12:23.039 mall and you say, look at that poor old hunchback man over there walking. 813 01:12:23.399 --> 01:12:26.640 I mean, that's me. It could have been me. So those 814 01:12:26.640 --> 01:12:31.720 are things I can do. And swim. I swim too. That's good. 815 01:12:31.840 --> 01:12:35.000 And then at least you're in an area where you have good weather. 816 01:12:35.119 --> 01:12:40.039 And yeah, I'm sure you probably have a pool or something like that. 817 01:12:40.479 --> 01:12:43.079 Well, we have a pool here. In the summer, though, we 818 01:12:43.119 --> 01:12:45.319 go we got a heat. It gets, you know, one hundred and 819 01:12:45.319 --> 01:12:48.439 fifteen degrees in the daytimes, a little hot, and so we three four 820 01:12:48.479 --> 01:12:51.199 months a year we'll go to Minnesota. And we have a lake place in 821 01:12:51.239 --> 01:12:56.840 Minnesota. So we'll go up and spend the summer at the lake and boat 822 01:12:57.039 --> 01:13:04.000 and go out to restaurants and so forth. We get out of that, 823 01:13:04.159 --> 01:13:10.319 We get out of the Arizona seat heat in the summertime. Peter, that's 824 01:13:10.359 --> 01:13:14.399 awesome and absolute pleasure in chatting with you. I appreciate all your knowledge and 825 01:13:14.439 --> 01:13:17.279 insights, and I wish I had a few more hours to look you up 826 01:13:17.359 --> 01:13:23.199 markets Well, it's good talking to you, Tony. Very good. Thanks 827 01:13:23.199 --> 01:13:28.680 You're you're a great You're a great host and a great interviewer, and I've 828 01:13:28.760 --> 01:13:45.399 appreciate speaking with you. Likewise, Thank you so much, Peter, Bye bye,