Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week, I am doing a two part
series of first is free, you listen to it right now. The second
is over on Patreon. The free content is twenty twenty three Breakout Candidates,
and the paid content over on Patreon is twenty twenty three Bust Candidates. One
of my favorite content series of due during the offseason because breakout and busts can
make or shape the direction of a redraft or dynasty fantasy football team. So
I have five breakout candidates to reveal this week, and I'll get right to
those in a few short moments. First, though, I had a five
start room review over on Apple podcast. It was left by Scott and it
was titled Google Meet with Cory. Just wanted to shout Corey with a five
star review. I just had a Google meet with him and it went awesome.
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that I've had. I've been listening to the Dynasty do for about six or
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Thanks Corey. Thank you Scott for investing me a call and secondly, leaving
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So here we go twenty twenty three breakout candidates, no specific order, but
I do feel that these players are about to explode in value. Now is
the time to buy before they become exponentially more expensive in a matter of weeks
months by the time the season begins up. First is Drake London. He's
twenty two later on this month, younger than some twenty twenty three rookie wideouts
of notes that we're reaching for in the first round of Rookie ADP this year,
eighth overall pick. Last year at a USC he turned in a seventy
two eight sixty six for Rookie log with one hundred and seventeen targets for twelve
yards pertetch good for the PPR ober you for thirty one earned a twenty nine
point three percent target shares are working with Atlanta is actually fifth best among all
nflide receivers and ranked second among wide receivers and target per route run rate that
was at thirty two point four percent. So the field metrics indicates that Drake
London is indeed an elite talent that didn't have the best opportunity or usage first
year in the Pros with the Falcons. He had a few Dutch showings.
Of course, last year's seven games with three or fewer ketches on the flip
side, Drake reached or surpassed five receptions and eight other contests. Perhaps most
encouraging is that London ended his rookie campaign on a high note with a six
ketch one hundred and twenty yard performers for Stampa Bay to showcase the sealing the
potential if features a focal point with the appropriate usage, not the inconsistency we
saw early on in twenty twenty two. In general, London brings a WI
receiver one skills set to the field body frame at six four two thirteen.
That is your prototypical franchise wide out one. The Falcons have arguably the weakest
WI reshiver depth chart. Behind London, you have mc collins, Scotty Miller,
Joshua Lee who's made some noises offseason, none of which are going to
push London for significant volume. Kyle Pitts is a Glory five receiver, but
still is a tight end by nature, so that is really fact they're into
London's role all that much. Another factor working in the breakout case for London
is a full off season with Desert Ritter. That outlook should be training upwards
for both of them. A few of Drake's top out in these last season
actually came with Ritter at quarterback from he's fifteen to eighteen, and per week
he saw target totals of eleven, nine, eights and eights over that span.
That's approcheing double legit, if not their targets week in week out,
and that is once again indication of an alpha wid receiver one in real life
and fantasy. I'm comfortable roster in London as a dynasty wide receiver one.
You might not get that value in twenty twenty three figure wide receiver two,
wide receiver three. Then you're in excellent shape. Regardless, it's quite evident
that Drake is on the path of breaking out in twenty twenty three. Is
a sophomore. Up next is Johan Dotson, twenty three years old, sixteenth
overall pick in twenty twenty two from Penn States, delivered a thirty five five
twenty three seven rookie line with sixty one targets for fourteen point nine yards per
catch. That was all in twelve games. Played good for the PPR wide
receiver fifty one. As a rookie, he dealt with a hamstring injury that
cost him five weeks after began the season. The four touchdowns within his first
four career contest it was a great starts four Dotson a bit undersize eighty two.
He makes up for it, though with great route running, relival hands,
and a four point four three forty yard dashtime Interesting staff here, Dotson
had thirty five targets to Terry mclaurens thirty four over Washington's final five weeks in
twenty twenty two. Is that a sign of Dotson being in line with or
perhaps even overtaking mclauren in twenty twenty three. Time will tell small Napolis size,
but I thought it was worth bringing up a few of Dotson's stand dot
worky game logs were three forty and two touchdowns versus Jacksonville four fifty nine and
one touchdown at Detroit's five fifty four and one touchdown at the New York Giants
four one oh five one verse the Giants and then six seventy six one at
San Francisco. Solid, not spectacular, but solid across the board in those
showings, and outside of Terry mclauren, Dotson doesn't face substantial target competition at
wide rechiever. Besides Curtis, Samuel has been more bust than Boom over the
course of his career. The development of Sam Howell's upcoming campaign could make or
break the entire Commander's offense, especially for the likes of Dotson or McLaurin.
If Howell struggles, then we'll see jacober set under center, who's proven to
be a steady game manager for the Colts and Brown's recent memory, but he's
not going to win football game. Sam Howells a chance to assert himself as
a franchise caliber starter year in, year out. It's a matter of at
this point Washington letting him loose and being the player that he was in North
Carolina. I want to roster Johan as a wide receiver three and allow him
to grow and develop in value during the sophomore year in the NFL, But
expecting wide receiver two wide receiver one numbers out of the gates is a bit
rich. He's a breakout candidate. He has not broken out or emerged yet,
hence why he's on this episode, and that's the potential it's there,
which is why I think he's a clear cut breakout candidate for twenty twenty three.
How about a running back or Shad Why? Twenty four years old third
rounder last year of Arizona States, where Shad was ineffective as a rusher during
his first stint at the pro level, a one twenty nine one one rushing
law for three point seven yards per carry, but excelled as a pass catcher
to the two of a fifty two ninety and two receiving law hit the eight
targets good for the PPR RB thirty six, so right around RB three territory.
It took White time to earn significant reps or playing time in twenty twenty
two. His breakout game came actually in Week ten verse Seattle. He recorded
twenty two rushes one hundred and five scoreless yards. White didn't surpass sixty four
yards rushing over the ration of TEMP based schedule, but did manage to post
five and more catches in five different games as a rookie, with nine grabs
in Week twelve at Cleveland resending his season high as a receiver. He has
plus size six feet two fourteen with a superb athletic profile, four point four
forty thirty eighties vertical and ten foot five broad jump. As a prospect in
analytic models, those numbers were always compared to Davy Johnson, who was a
unicorn, very unique running back prospect at his time when he declared out of
college. I don't think Rashad White it would be that much of a top
tier player like Davy Johnson was in his prime. Even so, Rashad White
is a lot working in his favor, with perhaps most importantly him being temper
based clear RB one without leonardour Nette in the Baffy rotation unless someone like Dalvin
Cook or Zo Elliott ends up signing with a bucan years and at the time
it's recording that has not taken place. All that is really behind my shot
right now. Of note at running back is Keyshawn Vaughan, Chase Edmonds,
and Udfa Shawn Tucker, who still has not really been on the field all
that much. He did manage that, being Rashod to demonstrate reliable hands with
only two drops on a fifty eight targets last season for rookie tailback. That
is impressive. You don't see that all too often. A the usage be
the consistency with those hands. For some real value context, I was able
to select Rashad White as an RB two in a recent startup draft at pick
nine point twelve. There's a ton of room for upside of profit at that
price point. Nobody is depending on my shot as an RB one for twenty
twenty three. Yet that kind of outcome is possible, even if it's back
end RB one value that is a lot better to return ROI than his current
ADP or asking price in a trade. And I think there's a few variables
that will allow Rashod to propel himself to that value point. And it has
to be becoming more effective as a rusher and then being featured extensively as a
receiver out of the backfield. If he can push forward seed two hundred rushing
attempts or above that and again hit fifty and more catches. We're talking about
barring health a locked in RB two with as I mentioned RB one upside,
So roster Rashad White as an RB two reflects and if he is able to
break out, you have an appreciating asset on your hands to either keep or
flip another player or draft pick of your choice. If the breakout happens,
that's when everybody wants in and buys into it. If you're requiring players before
they break out, then you're getting in at the ground level, and then
you have so many other options and leverage at your disposal. Time for a
quick break and I'll discuss two more breakout candidates that I see for twenty twenty
three. The next is the tight end and it's Pat Friar Youth. He's
twenty five in October second round selection. In twenty twenty one out of Penn
States. He has emerged. I wouldn't say broken outnocessarily. Let's look at
his twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two season logs. Twenty twenty one is
a rookie sixty four ninety seven seven with seventy nine targets eight point three yards
per catch PPR tighten thirteen on the year twenty twenty two. Last year's a
sophomore sixty three seven thirty two two with ninety eight targets eleven point six yards
pertecch PPR tight end eight, so he became a tight end one. He
was actually fourth and targets among all tight ends last season. The touchdown diet
from seven to two was drastic, and it's difficult to predict for any player,
let alone a tight end. Even so, if we expect positive touchdown
aggression before, if a frirem youth, it's then a bet for him to
push for or exceed seventy receptions eight hundred or so yards and then that threat
for double age to touchdowns. That's what makes a top five tight end and
face football. It's not that difficult to achieve that level. It's just a
so few tight ends that are ever even in the realm of reaching that threshold.
He had sixteen games played in both pro campaigns to dates, yet does
come with some durability or injury history. In terms of risk, he dealt
with two concussions as a rookie in twenty twenty one, and then suffered a
third concussion in twenty twenty two, not to mention that late season MCL's brain.
No surgery avoided that, and it sounds like he'll be aw systems go
for training camp, if not close to it now, assuming health cooperates.
Frime Youth has all of the makings of a superstar tight end in terms of
session traits, red zone usage. Just collecting those counting stats his red zone
targets so far, we're twenty in twenty twenty one and then thirteen to twenty
twenty two, so that dip is probably what was correlated or related to these
seven touchdowns as a rookie and two as a sophomore. If you see that
spike yet again in twenty twenty three for red zone usage pushing twenty or more
red zone targets, then fried Moth should be much closer to the seven or
more touchdowns we've seen him hit before. I'm a fan of Darnell Washington as
a prospect. It remains to be seen how the Steelers intend utilize him.
Terrific blocker can basically operate as a glorified infensive lineman for Pittsburgh with pass catching
chops and after catch skills. But make no mistake, Pat firearm Youth is
the price commodity at tight end in Pittsburgh, and believe it or not,
friarm Youth has not caught a touchdown pass from Kenny Pickett. That should obviously
change in twenty twenty three, assuming both of them take another step forward this
upcoming season. In general, I would not be surprised if Friarmuth is locked
in as a top five tight end in fantasy this time next year, right
behind or in the conversation of Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts,
TJ. Hogginson, right in that value range. The leap has to come
for him to be asserted in that vicinity, but he's not far off,
and what we've seen in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two are on par with
that sort of career arc. So buy in now at a back end tight
end one price tag, if not middle of the pack, but realize that
the breakout occurs and he's going to be locked in as a premiere tight end
and Fantasy football, which is difficult to obtain as we know, at a
very thin scarce position. Last, but not least, another running back,
and it is none other than James Cook, someone I was high on as
a rookie, didn't get featured all that extensively, but the future is bright.
He's twenty four in September, second rounder last year out of Georgia in
eighty nine five or seven two rushing line five point seven yards per clip,
almost six yards per carry. That's amazing. And then a twenty one one
eighty and one receiving log that was on thirty two targets which amounted to only
two hundred and fifty seven total offensive snaps. That's underwhelming. Cook ended up
being the PPR RB forty four while sharing time with Devin Singletary and Nahem Hinz.
Singletary, as we know, is now in Houston. Even so,
the Bills brought in Damian Harris from New England as a threat to Cook's early
down and red zone usage. Not to mention the Alvin Cook or Zeke could
still end up in Buffalo, so keep that in mind. It would damper
Cook's outlook, but there's still breakout potential, and I'll explain why. The
first point I want to make is that if you don't want to break the
bank for Jamire Gibbs in startup draft capital or rookie ADP, if you have
a first then James Cook is a solid backup plan with a similar set of
skills. Not as explosive or fast, but James does sports and above average.
I thought a profile. He's five to eleven one ninety with four point
four to speed, a thirty brings vertical and a ten foot for broad jump.
Jamire Gibbs is far more appealingly to trade for or roster and dynasty and
as a higher ceiling James Cook. But from a cost benefit analysis, it's
going to cost you a premium for Gibbs, whereas James Cook could be acquired
for mid to late first perhaps two seconds, much more cost effective, and
in the short term the value or output difference between Gibbs and Cook might not
be all that different for a lead. The next one or two seasons,
there's been nothing but powser reports about Cook as he heads to a software campaign.
As a rookie, he had nine eclips, fourteen rushes, ninety nine
yards rushing, six receptions or forty one yards receiving a single game. Those
should be easy milestones or metchmarks to surpass. In twenty twenty three, it
would be a major letdown disappointment if James Cook didn't come close to her double
his rushing volume which r eighty nine carries receiving work which is twenty one catches
as a sophomore. Hopefully it does occur that would result in RB two value
and RB one's spike weeks in Buffalo's high teen offense. If touchdowns pile up,
that is the most difficult category or metric to analyze in fantasy football.
Touchdowns. They are volatile and consistent and are related to teams finding their way
to the end zone being efficient. But then there's so many variables in play,
like a Josh Allen could easily steal or vulture touchdowns, same with Jalen
Hurts other quarterbacks that are dual threat pass and rushing in the red zone.
With that big body frame, it makes it difficult to then assume or s
to men, how much use is your running back like Cook will get in
the red zone. All that aside, roster James Cook as an RB three
and if he does see it expanded role as the second year of pro,
then we could be placing him in the same mold or value conversation as a
Tony Poward, Jantre Swipt, Miles Sanders this time next year. The nice
part about investing in James Cook at his current price tag is that there's room
for error. He's not being necessarily viewed as a starter. He could be
a flex, could be a bench commodity that is actually in certain to your
lineup, which makes him a breakout candidate because nobody expecting it necessarily occur in
twenty twenty three. I'm not quite sure why there's a lack of hype surrounding
Cook. We were all very excited about him as a prospect that a Georgia.
This time last year, he was a borderline first round pick. Granted
their size concerns and workload limitations that were evident. Still he's done nothing but
improve his stock. The only detriment to his value would be the addition of
a Dalvin Cook or a Zeke in a matter of a few weeks or a
month by the time the season begins. Even that boat doesn't necessarily deter Cook
from seeing more work in twenty twenty three and entering a higher level of worth
in Dynasty and breaking out before our eyes. That will do it. Hope
you all enjoyed this week's episode. A quick recap of twenty twenty three breakout
candidates. I discussed Drake London, Johan Dotson, Rashad White, pet Fire
Youth, and James Cook. Don't forget over on Patreon. Would be the
opposite of breakout that being twenty twenty three bus candidates this week, and then
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Talk to you all next week. See you