Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information
and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's
a step on, Stay lot go. Here's your hosts, Jesse sup Here
and Victor Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live back once again. This is Jesse super from
fan Tracks, joined as always by Victor Nuno. Divert prospects. Victor,
how you doing. I'm doing awesome, Jesse. We are in the last
of a consecutive number of shows here that I've done this day, and so
we're getting a little we're getting a little delirious towards the end here. We
like to put in the work for everyone. We've got to get these out
to the people, and this is a good one. I'm looking forward to
talk in Tampa. They got some great pieces and some things be shifting around
this year, so it'll be interesting to hear about them. But how we
have to hear about how you're doing, Jesse. Oh, I'm hanging on,
Victor. I don't know my own name anymore. I don't know where
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chatter. We got to get to talk about some Tampa Bay lightning with the
great first time guests. Right after this, we're very pleased to welcome today
a lady who's going to tell us about the Tampa Bay lightning. Deandralu of
the Hockey News, SI dot com and NHL dot com. Deandrew, how
you doing today? Hey guys, I'm good. How are you? I'm
great, I'm great, We're great. Ready to talk a little bit of
Tampa Bay lightning. Quite a team for you to be following. How many
years have you been reporting on Tampa just out of curiosity since twenty eighteen?
Pretty good time, pretty good time to do it. Yeah, no,
I've seen them be to hear that. Everyone keeps talking about that. I
don't think we'll ever let that year go when I got swept by the Columbus
Blue Jackets. So that was my first year covering the team. And it's
been a really fun road and I've seen a lot of ups and downs and
just the definition of resilience with these guys. The core has somewhat remained the
same through all of it. When we look at guys like Sam Coos and
Headman, all of them like they've been there this whole time, and the
rotating pieces have changed, but for the most part it stayed the same and
it's been a really fun ride. Yeah, it's arguably it's been about ten
years of peak lightning Headmund stand Coast Kilorin kucherov. John Cooper all being there
for this whole ten years. The teams won two Cups, lost two finals,
and made it to two more conference finals. And this year was a
first round out, which is unusual except, like you say at the Columbus
year, an excellent Toronto team though is not a not an unfair way to
go out. They were a very good team, and they lost all their
three games at home and overtime. That probably was not a lot of fun
to report on. Tampa had a top three most efficient power play, which
was conveniently paired with the most average opponent pims per game this year at twelve
point three. Of course, they also took the third most penalties per game,
which meant it wasn't always a power play at that they were getting.
The Bolts have had to churn their support players a lot, and they've gone
on to other teams. Some of them really thrived, but it seems to
be working. Is the Tampa Bay Lightning still a Cup contender in this coming
year? Gandra Oh. I think they're absolutely a Cup contender, and I've
seen some of my colleagues around the league put them down there is they're not
going to make it to the playoffs this year. This is the year it's
the downfall of the Lightning or I've seen it all over and for the guys,
I know they see that, but they don't really pay too much attention
to that. But for us, we watch it and I think to count
them out this year especially would be the biggest mistake the year that just I
hate to go back to the Columbus year. But the year that they lost,
they got swept, and they came back right after that and won two
Cups back to back. Like the revenge tour continues. I think the biggest
difference with this team this year is they've had a full off season and as
much as they did not want to lose to Toronto, as somebody who was
in the locker room and I was covering the team and I was around them,
I could see the fatigue as the season went on. And I think
it's just and they've said it too, but it was a blessing and disguise
to have a full off season, meet with their trainers, take some time
to just relax and be with family. Especially during that COVID year it went,
they really didn't have an off season and they haven't in a while.
So a well rested Lightning team going into this season. I wouldn't underestimate them
at all. And when you look at the core and yeah, you look
at the Stanley Cup and the team that was there, and how many guys
have left, I think there's and I'm just throwing this number out, but
I think it's nine guys are gone now. From that team, but they
just they're retooling and they keep plugging away and getting great players. And when
you win the Cup and you have a really competitive team, when you have
a cap situation like what Julian brees Ball had to deal with this offseason,
players still want to come play for the Lightning and sometimes they'll take a cut
to do that, and so that has really worked out in their benefit until
the cap increases. That's something that they've had to rely on the area that
they play in, their winning culture and just a really good relationship with the
coaches and Julian Braceball and the players and all of that. It's appealing to
a lot of players. So I think the season's gonna be good for them.
Yeah, hard to imagine it's going to be too bad. And we're
going to start talking about the forwards here, and of course we're going to
start with Nikiya Kutrov. What a stud he is. We thought he'd be
somewhere around the six or seventh past forward. He was actually number twelve,
but still really good and we expect that the future. He played eighty two
games for the third time in his career. Gone are those concerns from twenty
twenty twenty one, where he missed the whole season, he had thirty goals
eighty two assists for one hundred and twelve points. That was the closest he's
come to his MVP twenty eighteen nineteen season, when we had one hundred twenty
eight points. The shots are great. He actually gets a pretty decent number
of hits and blocks as well for a forward, and the forty nine power
play points is just absurdly good. He's got four years left at nine and
a half million for those of us in cap leagues, still pretty decent value
for what he's doing. Defensively, he's really not great, but that's not
why he's out there. He's excellent offensively, power play even strength. All
of his number underlying numbers look really good there. His shooting percentage was actually
a bit low this season compared to his career average, a few percentage points
low, but his power play points participation was a little high, so maybe
that evens out and he ends up doing similarly too before. So, Deandrew,
do you think Kutrov maintains over that one hundred and ten point pace again
next season? Oh? Yeah? And he's so funny because since they lost
to Toronto. He's been skating, like I think Julian Bresbass said, five
to six days a week since that loss. So he's been on the ice
trying to get his mind right and get his body right and get ready.
And he's been there almost every single day since the playoffs. So I think
he's ready to go. And I look at different areas for somebody like Kutrofs
as far as the goal scoring goes and what he had eighty three assists last
year, eighty two assists, but as far as scoring goals go, that's
somewhere that he can make up this season. When you lose players like Ross
Colton or Alex klarn Like, you have to make up for those goals somewhere,
and the players know that, and I'm sure Kutroff would be somebody that
you can always bank on to focus on that. He knows he needs to
score a little bit more. But yeah, that was his third career one
hundred point season. I would expect it to just go up from there,
and especially knowing having a full off season and knowing that they have to make
up I don't want to say for the slack, but obviously they took some
significant losses here due to the cap, so he knows he's got to step
up as far as that goes. And Kutrof is he's his own breed of
person. He's just incredible. He's amazing to watch and I'm excited to see
what he does this season. Radon point ninety five points last year. It
was a new career high for the guy. Fifty one of those points were
goals. That was fifth in the NHL and ten more than his prior personal
best. Now twenty one point seven percent shooting ran a little bit hot for
him, but his career rate is eighteen percent, so not crazy hot.
He played with Kucharov for years and when both are healthy, both are amazing.
We'll get to Brandon An in a few minutes, but that threesome played
the third most minutes together at even strength of any line in the NHL.
There is a heat map that I can get off the hockeyz website where Red
courses much better offense. Blew is much worse offense. When point is on
the ice, the middle of the ice looks like somebody stepped on a bunch
of ketchup packets. Basically, it's just redder than red and that just represents
the fact that when he's not on the ice, tampus five on five offenses
seven percent below league average, and when he's on the ice, it's thirty
six percent above league average, especially in the middle when he gets himself three
shots per game. He had exactly two penalties this year, one slashing penalty
and a fight with Mikey Esimont for some reason. That was all of his
pims last year, so he is not a highly penalized player. He's still
twenty seven seven more big year contracts ahead. I don't know what there is
to ask about this guy except over under ninety points next year. Yeah no,
And I love that his fight, his one fight was Mikey A Simon
because now McKay smont plays for the Lightning and their teammates, so that was
great. That was a lot of fun to talk about as he scored his
fiftieth goal and only one of those the fifty one was the empty night or
the rest. The rest are all legit. So I think the thing with
Brandom point and you can actually say this with most of the players on the
Lightning, it is they don't get a lot of limelight they don't get a
lot of hype. They just put their head down, go to work and
do what they're supposed to do. So Brandon Point had the quietest fifty goal
season I think of any player that was on there, any such a great
leader, and I've watched him take more of a leadership role on the team.
I think he's going to be incredible. And last year was big because
he was coming off an injury in the Stanley Cup final against Colorado. So
who knows, honestly, what would have happened if he was on the ice,
especially when you were rereading those stats of what it's like when he's up
there, and you think the Stanley Cup. Finally got injured. So I
remember talking to him last summer and he was working really hard to rehab and
get back out there, and he had a great season. I look at
Brandon Point and Kutroff and Hagel and those are the guys that when anyone doubts
the lightning, I just think about who's going to be up top, and
you're they're incredible. They're elite skaters. So same thing with Coach and Brandon
Point. They're gonna have great seasons, and not only them. That's not
even getting around to Stephen Standcost yet on this team, and he's been around
so long he had a peek before the ten year run that I'm talking about.
He's just an annual point per game plus guy. Last year it was
thirty four goals fifty assists for eighty four points in eighty one games. Also
three shots also hit every game, as well as Avershamani's of nineteen o one,
his most since twoy fifteen sixteen. Stephen stamp Coost turns thirty four this
season is in the final year of a contract on a team that has been
having to do cap gymnastics for a couple of years now to hold it all
together. So that's always a little bit scary. But Stampkos is seventy fifth
all time and scoring in the NHL, and another eighty point season should land
him to exactly sixtieth in the all time scoring ranks. Absolute surefire Hall of
Famer. What explains this mid thirties longevity out of stamp Coost and should we
expect yet another patented Steven stamp Coost season next year? Yeah? I could
say a lot of great things about stamp KOs as he's such a great leader
on this team. But I know that he works really hard to stay healthy
and I was actually he was just saying a couple of months in the off
season that his goal is to play for five more years. If he can
stay healthy and do that. You know what to expect with Stamkost. He's
always consistent. He's also just he is. In my opinion, he's the
best captain in the league. I watch how he interacts with his players,
and I think he's so much of the reason. Him and John Cooper,
but he's so much of the reason why the players can stay level headed and
get to where they're at and why they have a great season every single year
is because of guys like Steven Stamkost, because he'll pull them up get I
don't know. He's resilient. He's a resilient player, and I'm not worried
about his contract. I know that's in the works and he's very he wants
to stay in Tampa. That's what he wants to do, and I know
that will be coming soon. We knew the Hegel extension. I knew it
would be the Hegel extension and then the Stamkost. They're working those numbers out,
So I think now that Hagel's done, I would expect Stamkost is coming
soon. But yeah, everyone's been watching him for Stammer for years, so
he's always going to be right there. And I'm excited to see how he
interacts with some of the new guys that are coming into this dynamic, because
when you win the Cup and you go through these experiences together, these players
are really bonded. They have really great relationship, and Stammer's that guy that
brings everybody in the loop. They just feed off of him and feed off
each other, and I think that's how he stays consistent every year. You
mentioned Brandon Hegel. It is Brandon Hegel's twenty fifth birthday the day we record
this, and I think he deserves two pieces of cake considering the accomplishments he's
had in his past year. Thirty goals, thirty four assists for sixty four
points in eighty one games, with his first full year with the Lightning manages
just over two shots of game something under a hit in three quarters of a
block. Nice peripheral stats. Honestly, I didn't know what to make of
it. In twenty twenty one, twenty two when Tampa traded Taylor Radish Boris
kachukin two first rounders for Hegel and two fourth rounders. He was coming off
like a partial season where he scored a lot with Chicago and twenty two percent
shooting playing with Patrick Kane, and it was kind of like, is he
really all that or is this a hot half season? But boy, they
put Hagel mostly with Point and Kucheroff and it wasn't exactly a depth role.
He was six on the team in power play tim on ice And now,
like you said, the contract is done, they've doubled down. He's got
a max eight year, six point five million dollar year, a maximum eight
year the most years he can get six point five million dollars per starting after
this coming season. An amazing commitment for a team that otherwise is really trying
to economize. Like we say, what are the Bolts see here? And
are they right? Would you guess another sixty five ish point season from Brandon
Hegel? Oh yeah, I think it's only up for Hagel. It's only
up from here. But also when you're playing on a line with Brandon Point
and Nikita Kucheroff, it did take a little bit of an adjustment period.
But when you're playing on a line with those guys like you're pretty much set
up for success and you play at their level. And that's what happened with
him. And it's so funny because I watched him when he came on the
team and new in the locker room and he's just a little bit uncomfortable trying
to find his way. Now I watch him through this season and he's just
He's done an incredible job and they love him. He just meshed right in.
Culture is really big with the Lightning. He meshed right in right away.
And I think again, like the environment that these guys are playing in
really sets them up for success mentally and physically. But one thing about the
Lightning that I will say is they take these guys and everyone's what I don't
get it, but doesn't make sense to a lot of people, is are
they going to be good? Nobody knows. They really rely on the development
of their players, and Hagel Is he's one of those guys. He stepped
up, did what he could, and he actually went above and beyond to
fit in with this team. It paid off and he wants to stay here.
And I loved hearing what he said about why he wanted to stay with
the Lightning and he wants to win the Cup, so he didn't get to
do that with these guys. And it's easy to forget because he's such a
big part of this team now that he wasn't there when they won the Stanley
Cup. So he wants it, and I think, especially with this contract,
obviously that's going to motivate him to have a really big season. So
look out for him too. Yeah, definitely. And after those main guys,
there's a bit of a drop off fantasy wise. The Lightning are have
some great top of the lineup fantasy players and then there's a bit of a
middle here that isn't maybe not exciting. So I'm going to pose these guys
as a pickum. So I have Anthony Sarelli, Connor Sherry, and Nick
Paul. Obviously we have Sherry come in is a little bit new. Sarelli
has been roughly a forty point guy for years now, so I'm not really
sure if that's going to change much. Nick Paul has been more of like
a thirty point guy, so a little bit lower, but he has had
some top of the lineup relevance here and there. And obviously we don't know
what's going on necessarily with Sherry because he's new. But in Washington he had
some decent role here and there. He had a fifty point pace a couple
of seasons ago, and then he's been more like in the thirties. So
hard to say between those two. But between these three, who are you
taking in terms of a point pace and can any of them get over forty
five. I think this upcoming season is a big one for Nick Paul because
when you look at goals scored for him, he did when he came in
at the trade deadline and they played Toronto and Colorado and he did awesome.
But this past year he did some great things, but he just struggled with
scoring goals, and so he knows that's something that he has to work on.
I would definitely expect him, especially losing Klauren and Ross Colton, like,
he knows that he has to figure that out. He's got to score,
he's got to shoot the puck. He's going to be shooting the puck
a lot more because he can't. We can't have another season where that's not
happening. I would expect Nick Paul honestly to have a pretty good season as
far as that goes, because there was a lot of pressure on him there
at the end to score and he did score against Toronto. As far as
Connor Sheery goes, again, like you said, it is up in the
air, I will say like he played on the same line as Ovechkin,
which is pretty huge, and I know that's what the Lightning really liked about
him. He's going to be up there next to stamp Kost. I think
he's going to have a good year, but it'll take an adjustment period.
Right Like any player that comes into a new environment, it takes them a
bit to get adjusted. So I don't know if right off the bat,
if that's really going to be if we're going to see that success from Connor
Sherry. As far as Sarelli goes, he's consistent. We know what to
expect, was Sarelli. I think if you're going to go with a player,
I would say Nick Paul would be the one because it's crunched time on
him. He's got that long term contract. He didn't really score any goals
there last year, and so he's going to be shooting the puck more and
the more you shoot the puck, the more it goes in. So let's
go with the Nick Paul is the guy that I think out of those three,
I like it. It's nice to get that opinion. Of course,
Sherry is the bigger unknown, So if you want to take a big wild
swing, I think Sarelli, as you pointed out, is the one we
know the most about and it is probably the least likely to pop off.
Freley's a great player, but as far as is goals and shooting, Nick
poulis who I would go with. Connor Sherry. I hope that he has
a really good season. We just don't know he's again, it's just an
unknown as far as that goes, and it's going to take him a little
bit to get adjusted. Yeah for sure. All right, Yeah, let's
talk about the defense now, Michael Sergachev. It seems like we are witnessing
a bit of a change of the guard here at the top d in Tampa.
Headman still getting a smidge more power play time on ice, but Sergachev
has fifteen more points in just three more games than Headman. Coming into this
season, Jesse and I thought he'd be on the twenty four to twenty eight
best defenseman range, and he was actually the eleventh best, so really took
the reins there. Ten goals, fifty four assists for sixty four points in
seventy two games, which is a sixty six point pace, twenty seven power
play points, tons of hits, blocks and shots. Really good for those
bash metrics twenty first at his position, seven years, eight eight and a
half millions, it's looking like a pretty good value already. He's definitely providing
a ton of offense. His defensive impacts are neutral, so that's fine.
He really does better in the offensive areas anyways, So what do we think
about these two? I know, and Fantasy it's been tough because usually you
want the top power play defenseman, and he and Hedman have alternated a bit,
and sire Chef looked like he took it and the headman took it back
at times. What do you think we should expect here for Sergacheff in particular
right now in the power play? Yeah? No, I think Sergacheff again,
he's the thing with the lightning too. That especially when you're looking at
something like for Fantasy, the lightning of eight players right now under contract through
twenty twenty six seasons, and they're all young players. So, like you
said, I don't want to say changing of the guard too much, but
you're seeing some of those younger guys that are locked in. They got those
big contracts and there's a lot of pressure on them to step up as far
as leadership goes. Sergey is one of those guys. I think Hedman,
especially like last year towards the end, he got pretty banged up, which
didn't help. But Serge's really been stepping up, taking on more of a
leadership role, and I do think that it's just going to go up.
I saw him getting into his rhythm there in the second half of the season.
He was really determined and I can only imagine what he's going to be
like this year. They lost some leadership on that team. He's going to
be one of those guys that steps up and fills in that hole. So
as far as like what you're saying, powerplay, that's going to be on
him. And they got a couple of new guys on defense, so Sergi's
going to be taking the reins there along with Hedman, and those guys play
off each other. So well, let's talk more about Hedman because we need
to take a moment to appreciate this guy and an eighty two game pace.
He was the fourth best defenseman in fantasy hockey last year, and he's been
one of the top defenseman in the NHL for a very long time. I
ran the numbers from Evolving Hockey over the last ten years. Collectively, only
Romanosi and Eric Carlson have more points than Hedman among defensemen, and he ties
with Carlson for the most primary assists out of that group. On the power
play, Headman is alone in scoring for that ten year period in terms of
power play points two hundred and twelve. As referenced in the Circa chev Talk.
He wasn't alone at the top this year. For the first time since
twenty fourteen. Fifteen, Headman was not the top defenseman score for the Lightning.
Bonus points to any listeners who can name the top score that year,
because it blew my mind. But of course it wasn't exactly a disaster for
Headman. Nine goals, forty assists for forty nine points and seventy six games
is still amazing. Twenty second in the NHL, and defenseman scoring over two
shots, two blocks and a hit mark a nice peripheral floor, but like
you said, banged up and that six year run of all Star teams and
top three Norris finishes ended last year? Was it a blip for the soon
to be thirty three year old. Where is the mileage of fourteen years?
And that doesn't even count all the long playoff runs that add all kinds of
mileage to the guy? Has that all taken a toll? And maybe Headman's
a been on the decline? I think last season was again like one of
those I feel like I've heard this so many times as Headman on the decline?
Is Stemco's almost done? Or the lightning? Was this their downfall?
And really last year was really tough because they were coming off those back to
back runs and then the Eastern Conference Final and then the Stanley Cup Final,
and it's just they were so run down and it's natural as we age,
we get a little more tired than the younger guys. I think it's a
mix of everything. Yeah, Headman is getting a little older obviously, but
I think part of that was just wear and terror exhaustion and three Cup runs
in a row. It's just really hard to gauge that. I think this
season. He's gonna be coming back with the vengeance. And it's also Sergacheff
is he's younger, he has a lot of energy, he has a big
contract, like he's in his peak right now and he's going to get better.
And Headman's just in a different phase of his career. But I don't
think he's on the decline. I think he's gonna have a great season,
and I'm sure he's been hearing what everyone's been saying about him, so that's
not gonna resonate well with him. Yeah, he's great. He's an all
around great defenseman. I will say too. When mcdonnah left the Lightning,
when they had to trade him, it changed the dynamic of their defense.
And I think ever since mcdonnah left, that's something that they've been trying to
find their groove there on defense. So that is another reason why Sergey really
had to step up there. And I'm interested to see how the defense gaels
now. It's last season with them putting things together and figuring out what works.
That's where Headman steps in and he's the leader on the defense, no
doubt, no question. I wouldn't say he's on the decline, But one
day he will get there, but we're not there yet. Yeah, those
are definitely the top two defenseman. Frankly some of the top defenseman in the
NHL, but certainly the top two on this team. Let's just throw out
a couple again, players arbitrurely. Put them up against one another and see
who you like the best for the depth defenseman. Nick Purbicks, Eric Turnak,
Felipe A. Myers, three different guys who've had smaller worlds. Turnachfors
really popped up a couple of years ago. But which one of these guys
do you like best? From at least a fantasy scoring perspective or anything else
you have to say about these guys. You saw what it looks like when
Turnak wasn't in the lineup in the playoffs. He saw what it was like
when Hedman wasn't in the lineup in the playoffs against Toronto this year as well,
because they were both banged up. Turnach obviously was we had a head
injury, so he was out the whole time. But you could see what
happens on defense when those guys aren't playing. I think, as far as
like from a fantasy standpoint, I think Nick Perbicks is really interesting because again
he's young, and he's gritty, and he's fast, and he's kind of
on the up here for the Lightning. He watched him last year find his
way and it's funny when you watch he and Radish play together. Those guys,
they're the young UN's fence, Darren Radish and Nick Perbick. I would
be interested to see what Nick Purbicks does. Churno is taken some brutal hits
and had some injuries, and I'm sure he'll have a great season, but
I would keep an eye on Nick Purbicks. He's on the up for sure.
He's really young too, so Raddish definitely someone to look for in cap
leagues, I would say, because he yea not making a lot and he's
going to be playing, so we'd like to see that. But I'm not
sure that he's not going to score a lot, but the volume per dollar
might be there. Yeah. We saw at the end and the playoffs against
Toronto like he really started to find his own there. It's a late bloomer
and I know that they really liked what they saw from him and just signed
him for two more years. So he's definitely somebody watched. But yeah,
Nick Purbicks is I think he'll just continue to get better as well. Yeah,
definitely, And he is Taylor's older brother if I remember quickly connection there.
Ye. Let's move on to the goalies, and the Lightning gave up
the sevente ranked goals expected goals per sixty according to Evolving Hockey two point sevent
two, but conceded the thirteenth actual goals two point eight five according to NHL
dot Com. And a big reason obviously is Andre Bossileski. What a stud
he is. He's basically been an anchor back there for many years. And
yeah, he has got the big contract, but it has been well worth
it. He's a workhorse, he plays a lot of games, he wins
most of them, and in terms of a fantasy asset, there's for a
long time there wasn't a question who was better, although at this point we're
starting to entertain ideas about it's just Jerkin and Sirokin, But just in terms
of what we're talking about here, he was incredible. Seventeen goals save above
expected point eight six delta. Fenwick just really strong number thirty three wins,
nine fifteen say percentage outperforming all of his expected numbers. I can't imagine too
much changes with Fasileski. I think there's a little bit question about the backup
he hasn't It's been a while since he had a really rely viable, good
backup that could play a lot of games, which is why he's played over
sixty of the last two years. I would imagine, do you see anything
changes there? Same old great stuff from Vassilevski, volume starter, lots of
wins, good numbers, anything changing there. I think that last year was
and he said it like it was a really difficult season. It was hard
for him to push through his mind and his body weren't connected. He was
just exhausted on both sides. And he came out at the end of the
season and said, this wasn't my normal season, like I can be so
much better, and they were just he was exhausted, right, not an
excuse for them, but that's what he said. So I think that his
season, he'll actually have a better season this year. There's a lot of
questions as far as like the backup goalie situation goes in Tampa, and I
know Coop is adamant that a goalie should be able to play sixty games no
problem. So I know it was interesting when Vassilevski was talking about how exhausted
he was, and I think he said like game thirty five is when he
started to wear down meant and physically. So I am interested to see what
happens with the backup goalie situation. I haven't heard a ton and Johansen.
He hasn't played a lot, He doesn't have a lot of experience. We
don't really have much to go on as far as that ghost. But he's
young and I know that's what they were looking for. I think Vassie's gonna
have a much better season this year. He's rested up. He just had
and he was banged up. He said last year too, a lot of
little I don't know if injuries would be the word, but he's just he
was just banged up. So I would expect him that actually actually have a
better season this year. A well rested big cat should be fun to watch.
Oh boy, arrested, healed, motivated, Vassilevski is a scary thing.
For that is. I did want to touch a little bit more on
the backup situation because yeah, Jonah Johansson has not too many NHL games thirty
five in his career, and frankly, most of them have not been very
good. I definitely believe though, that behind a much better team than he
has had in some of his stints, then maybe he can do okay.
But he played for Colorado who was a really good team obviously and struggled,
and I'm wondering how much or the least they give him because they have Hugo
Alafeld, who has been who is I think one of the best prospect goalies
around, and he previously had struggled a little bit in the HL, and
so I understand why he didn't get too many looks previously. But he was
really good last year, seems to be pretty close to nhlready, and I
almost wonder if they don't give him ten to fifteen starts and maybe Johnson a
couple here and there, because all felt almost seems like he might already be
similar better than Johnson. What do you think about that option? Yeah,
I think, like I said, there's still a lot of question and of
what's going to happen there. But I could see that being the competition situation
between the two of them as far as who's going to get the backup spot.
And yeah, like you said, I agree with you one hundred percent.
The thing with the Lightning is they they're not going to really tell us.
We're going to find out when we find out. But I could definitely
see it being a situation, especially Johannsson. They don't have a lot to
go on with and he doesn't have a lot of NHL experience. I think
it's going to be one of those who's going to compete for the backup and
who's going to get out there and we'll see. I think they'll book get
a fair shot to show what they have and we'll see who gets it.
But yeah, as long as Vassi gets some time off to rest his body,
especially if they're going to make another run, which I know that that's
their plan, it's going to be whoever can step up. And you don't
know, because we've seen players like what we were talking about with Hagel,
you just don't know until they get in there, especially with the Lightning,
because these players get in there and they thrive in that environment and it could
be the same for Johansson. We'll see what happens. Premendous. Thank you
DeAndre, you brought us a lot of information on these Tampa Bay Lightnings.
How should people out there follow your work? Yeah, so I am covering
the Lightning for the Hockey News as the season training camp happens in the next
few weeks, I'll have a lot going on with that. But yeah,
you can follow me on my Twitter too, which we can post when we
send this episode out. But the Hockey News, I'm doing a Lightning show
with the Belief Network, so we'll have a Bolts like a breakdown, a
weekly breakdown show all throughout the season. And I do a serious x NHL
Network radio so do a lot of Bolts breakdowns there too, and some league
stuff. But kind of it's gonna be a busy season and we're getting close.
I'm excited. Absolutely everybody should definitely follow your work. And thank you
so much for being on the show today. Yeah, thank you so much.
Guys Wilson, Well, that's good fired pass goodness, got quick grab
Now it's your weekly goalie talk with Kats Silverman Cats Instincts. Time for another
edition of Cat's Instincts with Cat Silverman of Ingold mag Tampa Bay Lightning edition.
And you might be saying, why do we even need to talk about prospect
goalies because they have one of the best in the world, but you never
know. These guys could get traded. Heaven forbid, Vassi gets hurt,
but it's always interesting to know what's in the pipeline either way. And we're
going to start with Hugo alma Felt, one of my favorite guys, although
he's been blocked in this system. As we said, but twenty nineteen third
round pick by Tampa sixty three, twenty pound now twenty two, just finished
his second full season the HL and it went much better than the first.
I think his transition when he came over was rough. And I'm frankly very
larry of Vasileski's backup, Jonas Johansson, who has played several handfuls of NHL
games and most of them have gone pretty terribly. And I think we can
all remember Calado's playoff run that came to an end because they were forced to
play him, and anyways, I'm not sure that he's long for that backup
role. And Hugo alna Felt has been good, his goal save above expected
and the HL was one of the tops in the league this year, so
maybe there's some potential there. Hockey prospecting has him in the kind of thirty
to forty percent range. He looks a little bit like Alex alda average starter,
but maybe there's more upside than that. Kat, what do your instincts
tell us about Hugo Alnifelt. My instinct tells me that we're going to see
him in the NHL this year. I Jonas Johansen, that's a choice for
Tampa Bay. Oh boy didn't work in Buffalo, so we'll try it in
Tampa. Yeah. I think Hugo Alfeldt's they He's officially at the point where
I feel like he has to play in the NHL now. I think he's
given us enough of a sample size that we're almost reaching like the Connor Ingram
point where if he doesn't get called up, we may start to see a
little bit of a backslide in his game because he's ready. He looks good
in the NHL, and it's not like he'd I think the only reason they
wouldn't call him up is because they like to play Vasilovski for seventy to seventy
five games this season. I think at some point they have to stop doing
that, though, and it would be really fun to see Allena Felt come
up and essentially tandem there. I think he's It's interesting because he plays the
type of game that Tampa Bay likes, which is very skating heavy. It
really likes to say fluid. When he's playing, he doesn't really get himself
set and then just hold himself there. But he's a lot of fun too
personality wise. If anyone is bored and likes to like citroll YouTube, there's
a very good development camp clip where they used to make up Connor Ingram.
He was like a miked up darling. They decided to do it with Hugo
Alna Felt and he basically chased Magnus Krona around the ice, calling him Magnus
with the Humagnus five hole. So he's a delight. He's a gym.
He lets things roll off his back pretty easily. He's got good tracking instincts.
He recovers quickly. There's I don't think he's Vasilevski, but I don't
think anyone in their system could be. I think that would be a disservice
to Tampa Bay to have two guys like that fighting over the starting role.
Yeah, I'm curious to see if they do bring him up to the NHL
this year though, because I do think that he's at the point where they
have to do it this year, or essentially they run the risk of potentially
seeing him want to leave because he's at the point where he's put in the
work at the HL level. He's shown that he, like you said,
is one of the best in the AHL, and they have to reward him
somehow for that. That may be why they signed someone that intentionally needs to
go to the HL instead. With no disrespect to Jonas Johansson. So he's
a nice guy, but I don't have any faith in that in him will
annown that role. Let's move to the next guy I'm super high on now
in the field two. I would try to get him wherever I could,
and in Dynasty this year because I do think he'll play some games. The
next guy a mere Mythtica and he is a twenty twenty six round pick currently
unsigned, six foot one hundred and sixty five pounds now twenty three years old,
plays in the same system as Arter Aktiyamav of Toronto and he's been there
KHL goalie and that's part of the reason I think why aktiamoff hasn't had as
much opportunity there because he's been basically he's split some time previously, but played
thirty four KHL games this year. Was really good for them, and he
looking at his hockey prospecting, his equivalency is super high. He's basically in
the fifties, which is really high for a goalie. He's got equivalencis guys
like kippersof Vocoon cam Ward. I think he looks a fair amount like Vocoon,
and he was a star starter, and they had some other guys in
this range that are pretty good. Alan Felt's good. Miftakoff seems like he
also could be a potential future starter for the Lightning, but he did.
I think the one concerning thing is he came to North America, played in
the HL last season, and then left went back to Russia. So I
don't know if that's a concern for you or for anyone. And the fact
that he's unsigned, they still have his rights. But what your instincts tell
us about Amir Miftokoff, Yeah, when he got drafted, I had been
nervous that he wasn't going to get drafted as well because the ukbars Kazan system
really loves them. An undersized goalie, he actually is undersized. He's six
feet I think one sixty five. He's so fast. He's one of the
goaltenders that when watching him skate, I was like, Oh, this kid's
that once again just fits with that Tampa system. That's one of the things
that Vasilevsky does sneaky well is just skates so quickly. He doesn't play an
uncontrolled game, but he does utilize his speed to make sure that he doesn't
leave pulls open, which is something that some of the other undersized goalies that
we've looked at over the years really can miss out on the either panic and
do too much, or they really don't have the speed to recover if someone
tries to exploit one of the holes that they inevitably leave open. The thing
that makes me a little nervous is he loves to come out and challenge shots,
which I think in North America can be something that you have to control
and rain in your game because the game does move so quickly, essentially right
in and around the blue paint, so you can't come out too far unless
you're Mike Smith, in which case you like to do it anyway. But
I think his decision making looked good when I was watching him in Russia,
looked like when he was playing in North America. He did fine, but
didn't look as comfortable. It may just be that they figured he wasn't quite
ready to make the jump, so we went back to play more games in
the KHL. That may also mean that he doesn't want to play in North
America, which is always that little bit of a risk. But I think
he's a low risk hip reward player to have in their system just because he
does play a good game. Best case he comes over, plays for them,
could have starter potential. Worst case if you go on a felt in
their system, So they're fine. He's not their their make or break,
do or die guy. Yeah, definitely. It definitely seems like a nice
extra piece to have in the in the system. And another guy who you
might qualify as that is Nick Malik and he was drafted by the Lightning in
twenty twenty two in the fifth round as a double overager. He's six two
hundred and seventy nine pounds. He is a son of defenseman Merrick Milik,
who scored an epic between the Lake shootout goals. First of It's kind that
I remember seeing and it was awesome, especially because he had literally never scored
or hadn't scored that season and then it's like round fourteen of the shootout and
anyways, very cool. So the name is familiar and Nick has was playing
in Chechia during his true draft season and Deep one and then moved to Finland
after that and his D plus two season, finally got drafted playing for Kuku
or I guess it's Coco ko Ko. I believe it was pronounced coco and
in the league anyways, he was really good that season. This past season
he progressed a little bit playing for the same team, and his equivalence he
has trended down. It was much better when he was in the Zech leagues.
Now he's inn eighteen percent range. He actually looks somewhat like Brian Boucher,
who had that shoutout streak. Was more of a replacement level goalie when
all was said and done. But Cat, what are your instincts tell us
about Nick Malik? I liked his game during his first draft eligible year.
I was surprised that he didn't get more looks. I do know that when
he during the twenty nineteen twenty twenty season, he came over and played with
the Sue Greyhounds in the OHL, and he struggled with adapting his game because,
like I've mentioned before, the check leagues can get a little uncontrolled,
and so those the guys that grow up developing in the check system can really
sometimes struggle with needing to rain in their game over a long stretch of time,
especially when you're playing on a smaller ice surface where really the game moves
so much faster in front of you and you can't be doing too much.
And so it looked like he really needed more development in his overall just like
technical structure of his game. So it's nice seeing that he left the check
leagues and is playing in Finland where he's getting a little bit more structure to
his game, and where honestly, a lot of teams have scouts and have
coaches that are hanging out. Finland's become like a sneaky place for teams to
put their European prospects before they come over to North America. We see a
lot of Russian guys go there, We see some we obviously see the Finnished
kids. We see the check kids coming over, and so they play in
Finland and then they come over to North America. So it's nice seeing that
he's getting that transitional league. I'm curious to see how he does this year.
I don't know what I'd liked his game at one point, I didn't
know how well it would translate to North America. Obviously, teams agreed because
they didn't draft him with their first opportunity to do so we'll see. I
don't think he's I would say the order that we have talked about each of
the Tampa Bay goalies is about where I would say they fall in the ranking
for my likelihood that they would become a pivotal piece for Tampa Bay. Awesome,
thank you so much. Okay, forgive me us your instincts on the
Tampa goalies. We'll be back right after this the China fe did, Victor
Uco and myself back here to talk a little bit of Tampa Bay Lightning prospects.
Tampa Bay has been very good for a very long time, and even
though they always seem to get prospects to perform above their draft slot. Nonetheless,
they are only ranked twenty six in the NHL according to Victor's current rankings,
which take into account depth, and yet there are some really high level
prospects here and it starts with your no brainer. Who is it, Victor?
Yeah, our no brainer is Isaac Howard, twenty twenty two first round
pick, thirty first overall, five to eleven hundred, ninety pound left wing.
Had a bit of a rough transition from the USNTDP, where he had
eighty two points and sixty games to the NC Double A. His D zero
was at the University of Minnesota Duluth, and he had just seventeen points in
thirty five games. Primarily a goalscorer, and he only had six goals,
so that was tough. Next season, he's gonna make the shift. He's
gonna move over to the Michigan State, so it'll be interesting to see with
more opportunity what he can do with that. He's still unsigned. Sophomore year
coming up, thirteen shots and sixty sorry, thirteen shots per sixty is what
I saw his underlying metrics as, but only one expected goals per sixty isn't
good enough, So he's going to have to increase those underlying metrics with his
move to Michigan State to keep his chances of being an NHL are alive and
irrelevant fantasy score. But to learn a little bit more about him, we
have our FHL scout Jesse. That's right, Today's today's scouting reports are provided
all by FHL scout Jacob. Great job, Jacob doing a lot of Tampa
Bay Lightning scouting for us. And here's what Jacob has to say about Isaac
Howard. The skating is great skater, quick strides, strong cuts, high
motor. He can zip around the ice with ease. Puck handling great win
on his game. Howard and makes some dazzling plays with the puck that can
bring fans out of their seats. However, he has the tendency to try
to do too much with the puck and that led to a lot of turnovers
last season. The creativity is there though. The shot great again, quick
wrist shot good, one timer can be a dangerous shooter from anywhere on the
ice. The IQ medium. Howard is an offensive first player, so he
isn't afraid to find open space and try to create chances. When it works,
it's fantastic. When it doesn't work, he tends to throw the puck
away or just gets out worked by his opponents. Defense just average. When
he isn't the best defensive player, he puts in the effort will pressure his
opponents with his stick, summing that up. The biggest asset is the shot.
The biggest concern is the IQ. That is, the skills can make
him an offensive player who's dangerous, but it's going to come down to the
execution. Top outcome potential for mister mister Howard is going to be a top
line winger. If he's able to translate his game, he could very much
play a complimentary role to star players like Point or Kuchara, most likely outcome
top six winger. If he isn't able to translate, he could still be
a top six, solid, top six winger with powerplay time. The stylistic
comparable that we're going to give here, Jacob says Nikolai Eelers and in summary,
an offensive winger, excellent skill, powerful shot. Rough freshman season at
Minnesota Duluke but hopefully transferred to Michigan State will lead to our resurgence. The
NHL rank King Mason Black has given us a verdict on how mister Howard does
according to the p NHL E model. He is declined at this point,
but he is top comparable is Tyler Sagan, and then Keeper Bellows and then
Nathan Horton. That's his third highest comparable there, So that's interesting. Tyler
Sagan is the number one, and yet somehow he's dipped below second line potential
in this the third year of the score that we have Isaac Howard. Then
again, he was drafted last year, number thirty one. In terms of
a comparison, Charlie Strammell from the University of Wisconsin, who was drafted by
the Minnesota Wild will be his comp for the competition. The vote that goes
out there on Twitter and which one of these two would you rather have in
your team? Isaac Howard in a landslide sixty eight to thirty two, basically
over Charlie Strammell. Is that how you see this one going? Victor?
Yeah, I guess. So it's funny because I know Mason is really high
on Strammell, so this poll probably made him sad. But he Howard had
a really rough year, and I think it's quite possible that he bounces up
quite a bit with his move to Michigan State, but it still remains to
be seen. So if I think he still has that first line potential.
It was just an off year. He needs to figure some things out with
his game and how he plays. I think he can do it. Raym
We've talked a lot about on the draft shows, and he's someone who coming
into the year was ranked really highly, had a good d minus one year
and just really didn't have a good draft season at the University of Wisconsin,
and Wisconsin should be better next season and should have more organization, more more
organized systems and play, so that'll probably help Strayml. He's someone who can
probably turn it around. So I guess whether you want someone who's a little
farther away and hasn't quite proved it or someone who kind of tip dipped down.
Either way, these guys both have question marks as prospects. I think
based on Howard's game being more of a score, if he can figure that
out, he's someone I'm more interested in, so I would take him here.
I do think there's some interest for Straymal, but personally I am definitely
more interested in Howard overall. I do like that the Wild took stray Mole.
Maybe they see something in him that other people haven't, and they tend
to draft really well, so that always makes me reconsidered it a little bit.
But I'm taking Howard. If you look at their hockey prospecting, Howard
started at forty percent chance of being a star and went all the way down
to just twelve percent this year. That could very easily pop back up with
a strong ncuba A season. Next season, Stream will came in a just
nine percent chance of being a star due to his poor draft season, so
we'll have to see where that goes. Looking at Howard, some of his
other comps, guys like Ben Meyers who's a tweter NHL R, Carl Soderberg
one guy I think he looks. He looked a fair amount like is Logan
cature and the Calture trended down in his star potential, and currently Howard is
a little bit lower than that. But if you correct for some of the
poor nc double A season, it's possible that he could be in that range.
So that's where I would lean like he could be that sixty to seventy
point guy if he figures it out, which is where I think Calture lands
most of the time. In the top down hockey model. As a Coward
seven percent chance of being a star just nine percent chance of being in full
and HLA, which is pretty disappointing, especially all of this being said about
your no brainer prospect, Jessie, Yeah, that'd a real great sign.
But let's try again. Who's the need to know prospect? So this guy
definitely a little less known. Hopefully it'll be helpful for people. Jason Shuga
Bay is a twenty twenty three fourth round pick by the Lightning. He's a
five ft nine hundred and sixty eight pounds center. He's an April birthday,
so there might be some room to grow physically here. He played both Minnesota
High school circuit and for the Green Bay Gamblers of the USHL. Thirty three
goals sixty three assists in thirty one games for the Minnesota high school that he
went to, and that's good for almost three points per game. It was
Wirad High School. I guess probably saying that wrong, But then in the
USHL had three goals thirteen assists in twenty seven games. Really not bad USHL
production for such a young guy, especially being a bit smaller in that league.
He will be at Minnesota Duluth for his freshman season of the NC Double
A and he was Minnesota Mister Hockey this past year, which is the interesting
award that they give to the top Minnesota hockey player, usually a high school
player. Some interesting previous winners Jack Pert who's a defenseman, Blake Beyondi.
Both these guys are wild prospects. In fact, a lot of these guys
spend time in the Minnesota organization. Other interesting guys Casey Middlestad, Nick Buke's
dad, Nick Letty, Ryan McDonough so some varied interest of fantasy names there,
most of them not terribly interesting except mcdonna and Letty definitely had their time.
Anyways, back to Hugo Bay. His Mitch Brown tracking data based on
seven USHL games not great. Actually, his overall is just at fifty three.
Defensively, it's pretty bad. He's in the twenty seventh percentile, so
really not good there, especially with his retrievals and defensive play. A lot
of his transition numbers are actually poor too. It's really an interesting mixed bag
there. Some things are really good, like controlled entries and entries per sixty,
but then some of his things like cross lane plays and transition success controlled
exits are really poor. So defensively in transition or sorry transition wise a mixed
bag offensively, though, his expected goals and expected primary assists are both pretty
good, about half a standard deviation above the means, so just barely in
that top half. Not terribly exciting, but we need to hear a little
bit more about our need to know from our FHL scout Jesse, Yes,
Sir, back to Jacob to talk about sugar Bay. The skating average decent
skater with good strides moving up the ice, but very average piece of play.
Puck handling, great flashy puck skills that draw attention to himself allow him
to create open passing lanes for his linemates. He's not afraid to dig his
way around defenders. The shot good. While he doesn't always shoot the puck.
He has a quick wrist shot and a solid one timer. Tends to
get pucks off quickly to surprise goaltenders. The IQ not so good. Low.
He loves to drive plays so he doesn't necessarily panic one under pressure,
but sometimes gets outworked due to his smaller size. Other than that, excellent
sense for the game, knows exactly what plays to make. Defense below average.
He is simply an offensive player and doesn't display any high end defense.
He'll use a stick to try to take away shooting lanes, but typically waits
for the puck to come to him, so the best asset here puck skills.
The biggest concern defensive games. The offensive skill set to make him a
dangerous playmaker, he needs to work on his acceleration speed win in transition,
plus he needs to put in the work defensively. The top tier potential here
he could still be at top six forward according to Jacob. Best case scenario
if all of his all around game translates, he improves the skating to become
an excellent playmaker on the top six with top line power play. The most
likely outcome middle sixth forward. Worst case scenario, he becomes a middle sixth
forward with some power playtime. The stylistic comparable we're going with Johnny Goodreaux here
from Jacob and in summary, an excellent playmaker is Shuga Bay with fantastic puck
skills and a high hockey sense. Likes to drive plays to draw attention to
himself, which opens up the ice for scoring chances for his linemates. The
NHL rank King Mason Black is coming in and we don't have a whole lot
of data for Jason Shugo Bay, but we're going to say that Brad Malone,
Trent Frederick, and Andrew Kopp are relatively high comparisons for him, but
it's really very early to try to tell anything. And Suga Bay we're going
to compare in the poll to Jimmy Clark, who has drafted four rounds later
than Miss Sugar Bay in this year's draft by the Minnesota Wild And in the
poll it comes out very decisively in favor of Shugo Bay over Jimmy Clark,
sixty eight point six percent to thirty one point four victor. Is that vote
correct on the assessment of these two players relative to one another. I don't
know if it's correct, but that's what I would agree with. I think
that Chuckle Bay. I mean, they're both interesting and that they are.
They're both yeah Minnesota players, and they both had a low ISSH equivalency.
They're both later round picks, although Clark much lower the PNHL. Yeah,
it's similar for the two, but in terms of the hockey prospecting, Shugo
Bay is much much higher. So I think based on that, I think
it's pretty clear I would take him, although Jimmy Clark not a small guy,
so you have the small guy thing working against for Jason Shuga Bay.
But I definitely would take him because if he can figure it out in the
offense pops in college then and if it translates and he can be a much
more interesting prospect than Clark, which I'm not sure based on his production.
Seems like he's more a depth piece, so we'll have to wait and see
about that. It's interesting I pulled up this comp for Shruggle Bay. He
has one of the comps that's probably most accurate or most apt is Tyler Johnson,
who's also really small. He's actually an inch smaller than Shuckle Bay is
five eight, and we all know that tay Joe had really was able to
translate his game to the professional ranks pretty well. Shuga Bay has twenty eight
percent chance of being a star. Tyler Johnson started out at eighteen. Of
course, he started in the A I believe that's a JHL, and then
he went to the WHL and his kind of equivalence. He went trended down
from there, but he ended up obviously doing pretty well with that. So
that's basically where shruggle bay is, so I would definitely take him. I
think that he has more upside and if he fails to translate into college,
then you know, you can just drop him. You don't need to hang
on to him. Very good victor. One more who's to keep your eye
on, prospect keep your eye on for the Tampa Bay Lightning is Ethan Gautier
and he is the twenty twenty three second round pick by Tampa thirty seventh overall,
six foot, one hundred and eighty three pounds was in the qm JHL.
This season for Sherbrooke. Wasn't the best season for the q just in
general, not too many super high end guys, but he had thirty nine
points in sixty five games in his d minus one that he increased to sixty
nine points in sixty six games in his draft season, so increased that by
quite a bit, which you always like to see. And yeah, thirty
goals thirty nasis pretty great stuff for Sherbrooke. And he was traded to Drummondville
this offseason, so he will be with them next season. He's got at
least two more years in the que Based on his birth year, so birthday
had currently unsigned still and will definitely be curious to see how he progresses this
next year with his time in Sherbrooke. Based on Mitch Brown's tracking data,
overall, he came in at a ninety three percent tile, which is really
good. His d defense was pretty good, you know, off seventy fourth
percentile. His transition game also overall really good, but his offense was the
best ninety first percentile, and his expected goals per sixty and expected primary assists
both really good and that's really you love to see that. He also had
some really nice translatable features like off puck assist per sixty, expected primary point
involvement, all those things look really good. And yeah, we got a
shout out Jacob who stepped in and really helped us out with some of these
reports. And I should also mention that Jacob goes by future Bolts on Twitter,
so if you want to read all about Bolt prospects, you can check
him out there. But also we need to hear a little bit more about
Ethan Gotier right now from our Fahl scout Jesse Yep and Jacob says this about
Gotier, the skating a little below average high motor that makes him relentless checker,
but really needs work on his strides and top end speed. Puck handling
is great, excellent puck skills with great awareness to create scoring chances for himself
in linemates. Shot is good, has a quick release off his blade,
scores a lot of his goals by going to the front of the net for
tips or rebounds. The IQ the panic meter relatively low, very little panic
in his game, but shows excellent patients with and without the puck. Defense,
excellent, high work ethic, relentless checking, plays hard along the boards
and wins puck battles. Loves to pressure his opponents to force turnovers, so
the best asset for him defense and work ethic. The biggest concern is the
skating. Actually, he's got the style of game that can make him a
legit NHL player, but it's going to come down to speed. He's got
the pace and the work ethic, so Jacob Leese is not going to be
too much of an issue. The top tier outcome for mister Gautier a top
six winger. Best case scenario figures out the skating translates the offensive game and
becomes incredibly reliable top six winger with time on both special teams units most likely
tier middle to bottom six. Worst case scenario, he becomes a reliable middle
to bottom six winger with defensive responsibilities. The stylistic comparable. Oh boy,
here's Brady Kachuk. You know what that means. We're gonna get some bash
out of this guy. A skill two ay forward with a high work ethic
and solid puck skills. The NHL rank King says this about the p NHL
E and mister got is trending up. Just to bet he's a little bit
above second line potential in the model. Now, Brendan Gaunce, Brad Richardson,
Brendan Leipzig are the top comparables in terms of a statistical translation. So
we're gonna put him up against Cohen Zimmer in terms of a matchup, and
Zimmer, of course was drafted. Boy was drafted much later than Gautier was
in this year's draft, almost the twice as late thirty seven versus pick seventy
eight, and the people out on Twitter did side with the draft knicks who
took before fifty five to forty four for Gautier over Ziemer. Is that how
you see this matching up? Pictor That's definitely not how I had it in
my rankings, So I guess no, I guess not. I understand picking
based on the draft position, and we just had the draft. Gautier going
much earlier is obviously gonna make him look a little bit more enticing, I
would say. But I had Gautier ranked as thirty fourth, and he went
right around there in the real draft thirty seventh. But Zeemur or fantasy perspective,
is much higher. I had him number eighteen. There's definitely more of
growth that needs to happen in Ziemer's game to be an NHLer, I would
say, than Gotier's in terms of the offense and what you want out of
fantasy. Seas said, this is a classic philosophical question, Jesse, because
I would rather just take Zeemer and if he ends up not progressing and the
t and the offense doesn't really translate as he continues to develop, then you
just drop him, whereas he is more likely to be an NHLer. But
if he does make it, I think he's more likely to be a middle
to bottom sixer. And then you're like, Okay, is I held onto
him this whole time and I'm not super excited, So I would rather just
be disappointed and drop someone then hold on to the end and be disappointed.
It's like, when do you want your disappointment to be? I would rather
be earlier so that I can get out from under him and move on to
something else. That's the way I think of it right now. The hockey
prospecting between the two is much much higher for Zeemer forty percent chance of being
a star to fifteen, and that's based on their WHL production, which was
much higher for Zeemer, and the nhller likelihood is actually much higher at this
point. You look at Gautier and he's got some pretty pedestrian comps. I
would say one of the ones that I think looks most appropriate is Kelly jan
Kroc and Kelly jan Krok pretty average producer, not anything too exciting, but
based on deployment, could be interesting. And I think that's pretty much what
it comes down to, is with the right deployment, he could be interesting.
But overall, Gatier probably isn't going to be all that exciting, So
you have to keep all that in mind when you're, you know, considering
these two. But yeah, I think it's pretty clear to me and I
think you have to think about how you want your want to structure your pools.
But in terms of the top down hockey model, Gotier just two percent
chance of being a star, six percent chance of being an NHL or so.
The numbers don't really back it up too much for Gautier either. But
anyways, this system obviously is a little bit on the downswing because their ANHL
team is still good, but they did get a couple of decent picks this
year to flesh things out a little bit. Thanks again to Jacob. Definitely
check out his stuff on future Bolts and Jesse. There are more guys we
could talk about. None of them are terribly exciting, but they do have
other players, And if you're a patron, you can listen to my top
ten list recap on Patreon and if you're interested in doing some scouting with us,
shoot me a dam on Twitter, discord or email. Last be right
back to close out of the Shelf stopy. If you've heard this before,
Fantraks is a pretty cool place to play fantasy sports. We're part of the
Fantraks podcast network and fantracks dot com is a place you can play like ten
different fantasy sports. You can move your fantasy hockey leagues over there. You
can. Basically it's the place to play dynasty but also start new ones.
Why not. They got the most options for scoring, salaries, contracts,
customized rookie eligibility. You can play it for free. There is a pay
version. Everybody from your league kicks in a couple of bucks and you have
access to even more crazy features that is in there. But you know,
give it a try. It is also one of the few plays this is
where they still have a good chat feature on the mobile app that you could
play with, so do that. Fantrak's HQ has got a lot of fantasy
content articles on fantasy hockey, all the fantasy sports. There are a couple
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the Fly Fantasy Football, p TWOW Fantasy Football. There's good content on those
other sports if you're into them. We think our content curator Nate Duffett,
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other podcast, Dabber Prospects Report, that he does with our friend Peter Harling,
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next time, keep living that fantasy hockey life.