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Welcome, Welcome to the Tesla shareholder
Meeting. I just want to start up

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by saying, hot, damn,
I love you guys. We have the

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most awesome shareholder base. I mean, it's just incredible any public company,

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it's incredible. Wow, We've got
a great sort of shareholder of meeting here

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to recap the achievements of the company
and tell you about where we're going.

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I think it's incredible. I think
we're not just opening a new chapter for

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Tesla, we're starting a new book. So those of you who have been

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following Tesla closely understand, like you
get it, you know, and so

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like the important thing is you get
it. I mean, it's so the

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Yeah, where things are going.
I think it's just going to be absolutely

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mind blowing. You know, we're
obviously making great progress in solving the sustainable

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energy problem, you know, with
electric vehicles, with stationary storage, with

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solar, and and then terms I
think in terms of the value of the

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company, autonomy is just such a
mind blowing thing that I said, you

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guys understand, but I think most
of the world does not yet understand.

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So and you know, talking to
a lot of these sort of big institutional

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investors I mean they're often in like
New York and they don't drive cars.

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So I'll be like, have you
driven our car? Have you tried self

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driving? You know, the version
twelve point three, and they're like,

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oh no, okay, well you
should try it. That would be a

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good thing to do. And if
you just plot the points on the curve

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of how well autonomy is progressing,
and just believe the curve, it's headed

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towards unsupervisedbule self driving very quickly at
an exponential pace. If you just yeah,

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it's I mean, yeah, So
it's really as simple as that.

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And in fact, i'd invite you
to just do it personally, just say

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okay, with each release, how
many miles do you drive before you have

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to intervene. It's like literally that
simple. And with each release you'll see

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there's a big improvement and it looks
like an exponential so and it's very clear

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that will actually go to the point
where it is actually far safer than a

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person driving the car. So,
and I have some insight into, you

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know, the next releases, because
we've got basically for every release that's on

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the road, we kind of see
what the next generation releases and a little

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bit about the release after that,
so we have some insight into where it's

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going, and it's really amazing,
no question whatsoever, that will far exceed

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human safety. Yeah, no question. So, and I think you know

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I have mentioned this a bit,
like sometimes it's like helpful to sort of

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reiterate and connect some of the dots
because sometimes people wonder, well, how

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do you go from this big fleet
to actually monetizing the fleet in an autonomous

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situation? And it's actually a combination
of like it's like Airbnb and Uber to

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some degree. So like there'll be
some cars that Teesla owns itself. It's

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kind of like an Uber of fashion. But then for the fleet that is

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owned by our customers, it will
be like an Airbnb thing. You can

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add or subtract your car to the
fleet whenever you want. So you can

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say, like I'm going away for
a week, just one tap on your

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Tesla app, your car gets added
to the fleet and it just makes money

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for you while you're gone. Yeah, you can say you can add it

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to the fleet for a few hours, for a few days, for a

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few weeks. Whenever you want it
back, you can say come back,

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and car will come right back.
And I'm highly confident that it will far

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exceed the value, Like the revenue
made by the owner of the car will

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far exceed the actual monthly payment,
and then Test will obviously take a rev

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share on that, but most of
the money will go to the owner of

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the car. And it's this is
actually gonna work. This is what will

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happen. So, I mean,
i'd mark my words. This is simply

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a matter of time. Now,
admittedly I'm a little optimistic sometimes, you

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know, I'm you know, so
I don't have complete lack of self awareness.

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But if I wasn't optimistic, this
wouldn't exist, This factory wouldn't exist,

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you know. So you know,
that's when my brother, who's supports

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he just got reelected. No,
sorry, this is so like a little

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anecdote when we're kids, is cool. My brother would tell me the wrong

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time for the bus so that I
missed the bus, and then it'd be

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upset with him, like why did
you tell me the bus was going to

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come earlier than it was, And
he's like, well, because otherwise you'd

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be late for the bus. This
is an actual thing that would happen.

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So I'm I guess I've been sort
of pathologically optimistic from from you know,

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from birth. But that's the reason
where this is all the stuff is happening

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anyway, It's like I gotta be
somewhat pathologically optimistic, but I did live

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in the end. That's important thing. So yeah, and it's it's really

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just going to be something else.
I mentioned this before, but like the

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for ARC invest, I'd recommend reading
the ARC invest analysis. That's the most

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accurate. There may be, you
know, more accurate ones, but the

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most accurate sort of analysis of the
potential of autonomy, the most accurate that

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I'm aware of is Kathy Wood's ARC
invest. So and if I recall correctly,

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they predicted somewhere over a five trillion
dollar valuation for Tellla just based on

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vehicle autonomy, not counting optimists.
Yeah, yeah, I agree with that.

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So so I think I think just
based on vehicle autonomy, we can

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we can tend act one ten x
the value of the company. I believe

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that is what will happen. Hey, it's just what do you know,

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it's it's it's four twenty pm.
Just notice that, so, you know,

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So, so I think that's actually
I think that's pretty accurate. But

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there's this It actually gets way crazier
when you think about the Optimus robot,

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which is really a humanoid robot that
is intended to you know, be able

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to do anything you wanted to do, to be you know, it's your

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you know, your companion. It
can be at your house. It can

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sort of babysit your kids. It
could teach them, be a teacher,

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you know, it can do factory
stuff. Like I think that the ultimate

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ratio of you, say, how
many super useful humanoid helper droids do you

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want? Like who doesn't want to
see three po you know, you know,

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but a C three P O plus
R two D two plus you know

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plus it would be pretty awesome.
I think everyone in the world is going

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to want one, like literally everyone, and then there will be obviously robots

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in industry making stuff, and so
I mean, I think the ratio of

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humanoid robots to humans will probably at
least two to one something like that,

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one to one for sure, which
means like somewhere on the order of ten

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billion humanoid robots, maybe twenty or
thirty. And so then it's like,

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okay, well, let's say,
you know, you kind of make they

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said the build rate is I think
the build rate will be probably something ultimately

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like a billion a year humanoid robots
like actually, and if Tesla just has

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a temper cent sure of that,
and it might be a lot more than

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and this you know, who make
like one hundred million Optimists units a year.

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I just I mean, for reference, the auto industry is roughly one

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hundred million vehicles per year, so
that you know, sort of similar Bullpark

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at least within an order of magnitude. And I think we could make one

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for a cost of maybe at really
high scale of about ten thousand dollars.

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It's smaller, it'd be less expensive
than a car. So and I think

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if you sold it for sell for
twenty thousand dollars something this is at large

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scale volume, Tesla would basically make
about a trillion dollars of profit a year

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from that. So yeah, if
the price oarning is multiple is say on

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a twenty or twenty five something like, that would mean a twenty trillion dollar

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market cap from Optimis alone, and
probably five to ten from autonomous vehicles.

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So like, I think it's actually
it's within the realm of possibility for Tesla

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to achieve evaluation ten times that of
the most valuable company today. So when

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I say this is like we're starting
a new book, I mean it's going

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to be the best book next level, next, next level, and we

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need to make sure these robots are
nice to us, and you know that's

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very important. So so anyway that
so with that, let me get into

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the presentation. Blah blah blah blah
blah blah. I think it might be

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worth us just putting a word limit
on future shareholder TELA of proposals. It's

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like you can't have like a novel
length, you know, it's kind of

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like you can't have a whole novel
as a TESLA present. So, you

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know, as you can see,
our impact is accelerating. You know,

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we're starting to make a real noticeable
event in corbon emissions. So we're really,

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you know, making a lot of
progress towards achieving our goal of sustainability.

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And one of the effects of autonomy
is actually is going to be an

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even greater effect on carbon emissions because
I suspect that we'll go from passenger cars

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having about ten hours of usage per
week, about an hour and a half

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per day, to probably a thirty
the hours in the week, maybe fifty

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fifty five hours, which means the
same car we'll be used five times.

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So you need a certain amount of
resources to make the car, but it'll

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have five times the usage. In
my opinion, I think that's quite likely,

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which will be an even more dramatic
impact on carbon emissions. So you

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know, we care a lot about
sustainable manufacturing. Our factories are beautiful.

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Like you walk around the factory,
it's actually, you know, a contrary

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to these like what you're in the
press. It's like a good vibe in

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the factory, like people are smiling
and happy. It's like it's nice.

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So yeah, so I mean we
do care. We actually do care a

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lot. It tells about doing the
right thing. And you know we're not

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going to be perfect, but we
do care a lot about doing the right

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thing. So our vehicles are water
efficient, energy efficient, We try whenever

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possible to use renewables for powering the
factory, and you know, do our

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best to do the right thing.
Our batteries are lasting. Look longer,

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I get too many things, man, Anyway, the batteries the last lasting

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a lot longer. It's just good. Safety is good in the factory.

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We're improving the affordability of EBS you
know model why it is comparable to a

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BMW X three, but it's actual
cost of ownership on a monthly basis is

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much lower. We were number one
in EBS globally last year. So yeah,

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so yeah, so let's see,
I Congress, that tails the team

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on making six million vehicles all the
time. So, I mean the tail

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of the fleet is really becoming very
substantial. I mean it's gonna be seven

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million vehicles by the end of this
year, over seven million vehicles. So

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we have and our factory in Fremont
is currently the highest volume auto factory in

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North America. So and we broke
the prior production record from when it was

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new me So it's it's actually pretty
wild that there's a we have a giant

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car factory in the San Francisco Bay
area. It's like it's not exactly the

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cheapest place to have a car factory. It's like that in the Swiss Alps

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or something, you know, but
we still managed to make, you know,

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great cars at high volume. And
that's a testament to the great team

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we've got in Fremont. So,
Congress, the Fremont team, and you

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know, a lot of people were
saying the cyber truck is like fake,

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it's never going to come out,
you know. And now we're shipping a

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lot of cyber trucks. We had
a weekly record of thirteen hundred. And

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you know, I think with a
cyber truck, it really is something special.

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Like you feel sometimes have like different
opinions on the cyber truck, but

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if you really want to know if
there's a if something is cool, if

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it's a great product, like show
it to a kid, okay, like

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no filter. Okay, the kid's
got like no filter, like a five

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year old, six year old something
like that, and or three even three

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year old and say which car do
you like? Cyber truck? So it's

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like that's how you know, And
it's finally something that it just looks like

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the future. It's and it drives
so well, you know, it's comfortable,

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it's it's just a fantastic product.
I think it's out. I think

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it's our best product, and it's
a lot of innovation. It's got a

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forty eight volt a low voltage system
finally instead of twelve vaults, eight hundre

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voult drive train, the world's biggest
castings. You know, it's bulletproof.

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All the cool things can you know
outpull a F three P fifty diesel,

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which is a very impressive truck,
and it can you know, it can

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do a quarter mile faster than a
portion nine to eleven while towing a portion

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nine eleven, So that's insane.
So yeah, I think if you think

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about it, like, how often
do companies make products that move your heart

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that are really special. It's so
rare, and I think this is one

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of them. So yeah, And
we launched the upgraded three, which is

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actually a fantastic car. I'd recommend
trying it out. It's really a great

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car, and it's only two hundred
and sixteen dollars after a gas savings like

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total cost ownership, it's basically two
hundred and something dollars when compared to a

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gasoline car, some of the gasoline
cars, so it's really a great deal

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and a fun car. And the
performance of wealthy performance is well it's like

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you know, fasting portion nine eleven. It's just a great car. So

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yeah. So yeah, And of
course one of Way became the best selling

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globally, and this is something that
we predicted, so you know, I

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think I said in like twenty twenty
two it would well away would be the

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biggest car in the world by dollar
volume sales, and that twenty twenty three

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it would be the biggest in unit
volume, and it was, and again

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this year it will be the best
selling car on Earth. So and we

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were We've got the Tesla Semi.
You know, we're in low volume production

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of the Tesla Semi. And just
last week I proved the plans for volume

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production of the Tesla Semi. So
we're gonna make a lot of semi trucks.

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We're going to start off with.
Yeah, it's something I think it'll

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actually move the needle financially. It's
not like it's not a small thing.

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And the thing about like commercial vehicles
is that companies that use them are super

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objective. It's not like it's actually
I mean, obviously we're going to make

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it have cool style and be an
awesome car. But for commercial vehicles,

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the companies that make the buying decisions, they just look at it and say,

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like, what are the numbers,
Like, is this costs less to

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transport or it costs more to transport
than say a diesel truck. And the

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thing is that the economics are much
better than a diesel truck. It's kind

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of basically no brainer. If you're
a transport company, you don't use an

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electric the test electric semi, you're
just losing money. Why would you do

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that? Do you not like money? Okay, but if you do like

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money, then I recommend using the
Tesla semi. And it's so I think

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this is really going to actually sell
it a scale that to you will be

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surprised at and we'll actually move the
needle financially and do a lot of good

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And also for CO two and sustainability
because semis are driven all the time and

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actually even at much smaller numbers,
they have a very big effect on total

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carbon emission solved. So obviously we've
got some new products that we're working on

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under the covers, and I think
these are I think is going to be

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pretty special. So you know,
some of them, I think people maybe

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at first may think, oh,
it's not going to be that amazing,

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but just wait, it will be. Our supercharge network is continuing to grow.

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You know, rumors of the death
or supercharger are greatly exaggerated. We

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are in fact continuing to grow the
supercharge network significantly. In fact, this

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year I think we will put more, deploy more superchargers this year that are

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actually working than the rest of industry
combined, just FI. So now we

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are going to be more careful about, like you know, the capital efficiency

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of where we deploy supercharges, but
for sure any place that has congestion,

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any sort of missing parts of the
map that we're missing, we're going to

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put the supercharges there. So even
for the remainder of the year, we

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expect to spend about half a billion
dollars on as charge of deployment, so

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it's very significant and well spent half
a million, so this is it's a

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lot so and we're this is actually
not showing a bunch of new markets that

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we'll be opening up later this year
and next. So we're obviously we want

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Tesla to be worldwide, and this
is a lot of countries that we you

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know, have zero to very few
Tesla's and we obviously we want Tesla everywhere.

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So there are a lot of new
markets that we're going to open up

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later this year and next. We're
also opening the supercharge of supercharges to other

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companies with the that's the adapter to
the old somewhat clunky connector. But our

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goal is to be helpful to other
car companies, So any other car companies

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that are going electric, we we
do want to be helpful to them with

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our supercharge network. So we're providing
them with adapters and enabling them to have

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access to the taels of supercharging network
because we think it's better to do that

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than to create a world garden that
inhibits ev growth hopes. There's a bit

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of latency, and we're also innovating
a lot in battery production with the forty

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six eighty that's built right here,
and it is it's a hard problem,

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you know, like there are entire
companies that just make battery cells. That's

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all they do. But we're making
good progress, Like all the cyber trucks

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that you see use the tells of
forty six eighty cell and we have a

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clear path to the forty six eighty
being we think probably the most competitive cell

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from it's from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint, and so it's but it is a

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hard problem. I have to say, there's quite a lot of brain damage

249
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required to be good at cell manufacturing. It's like a brain damage high.

250
00:18:14.359 --> 00:18:18.920
But I think it does give Tesla
resilience in the face of if there are

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00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:23.480
changes in the I don't know geopolitical
situation somehow, but it's like it's good

252
00:18:23.480 --> 00:18:30.839
to have something in the independence in
cell manufacturing. So yeah, we're making

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study progress. And we also have
the cathode refinery, which you can see

254
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behind the main factory, so you
can sort of see it in the picture

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there that's a cathode refinery. And
then we've got the lithium refinery in South

256
00:18:41.640 --> 00:18:45.200
Texas, and so we're just making
sure we've kind of got the piece of

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the puzzle and the I mean,
if you would to look at sort of

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a video of how Tesla does say
cathode and lithium refining and how the rest

259
00:18:56.039 --> 00:18:59.240
of industry does it, it's night
and day. I mean, you can

260
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sort of eat off the or in
the Tesla refinery, and I would not

261
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recommend doing so in the others.
So you know, it's really we're definitely

262
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going very vertical here. But I
think that this is a it's a wise

263
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investment that will pay off more than
people realize. So I don't think this

264
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thing is working. So this year
we're also on track to complete a massive

265
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number of energy deployments, so that
is a gigantic increase in deployment capability.

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So okay, we're really we seem
to be tracking to sort of a two

267
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to three hundred percent year of a
year growth and energy storage deployment and stationary

268
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pack so it's giant and the limiting
factor really is being able to build more

269
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megapacks and build more power walls.
So we're ramping up production of the power

270
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wall three, which is really a
game changer for at the personal level.

271
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The power wall three, it usually
takes about three iterations of any given technology

272
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to to really for it to be
something where it's like, Okay, now

273
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we're really hitting the sweet spot.
So power Wall three is like an epic

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product. The megapack is also it's
even it's i'd call it sort of iteration

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two of the Megapac is also an
epic product. With with the Megapac three,

276
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which is probably a couple of years
away, will we'll start actually absorbing

277
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more and more of the substation of
the power of the sort of power electronics.

278
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So because I sort of think you
want to get to the point with

279
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the megapac where you can literally just
take the high voltage power lines and plug

280
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them in just there's no substation,
we just plug them in just drop them

281
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down and drop it down and plug
it in. That's and networks, which

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is like mind blowing for the utility
industry by the way, like they're like,

283
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what, yeah, just plug the
wires in and it'll work for very

284
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high voltage. So that I think
is actually going to be a major So

285
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this is this great, excellent work
by the energy storage team. Services and

286
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other are also looking good. So
we're actually now making money on the services

287
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and other stuff. So this is
kind of a big deal, right,

288
00:21:26.480 --> 00:21:30.400
yeah, so let's see. Yeah, and Tesla's obviously way more than a

289
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car company. You know, we
do a lot of software Tesla you know

290
00:21:36.200 --> 00:21:41.079
about I don't know, roughly half
the or a very huge percentage of the

291
00:21:41.079 --> 00:21:45.319
engineering we do is actually software engineering. So Tesla's i'd say as much as

292
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software company as it is a hardware
company. This is a very big deal

293
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because car companies are not software companies
normally, so this matters a lot.

294
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So things like our order bit of
software for energy storage, all of the

295
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software that controls the cars, the
megapacks, power walls of the solar obviously

296
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for AI and and full self driving, a big deal, insurance service and

297
00:22:07.720 --> 00:22:14.039
collision. Tesla also writes a lot
of software internally that that helps that like

298
00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:18.960
we call like the Tesla operating system
internally that is head and shoulders above what

299
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any other company has. I think, probably better than any Fortune five hundred

300
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company. The Tesla internal software is
is just way better. So it's yeah,

301
00:22:29.759 --> 00:22:33.480
it's just far more than what people
normally think of as a car company.

302
00:22:33.039 --> 00:22:40.359
And Tesla's also the leader in a
real world AI, so there's really

303
00:22:40.599 --> 00:22:45.359
this is a big deal. Like
Tesla is ahead of Google matter, you

304
00:22:45.400 --> 00:22:49.880
know, opening anyone on real world
software actually looking taking in video and making

305
00:22:49.880 --> 00:22:53.440
decisions based on video. No one
can. No one is even close.

306
00:22:55.079 --> 00:22:59.119
And it's getting better, I say, with each passing month, if not

307
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each passing week. Soya. And
it's also worth noting that Tela is actually

308
00:23:04.039 --> 00:23:10.440
pretty good at chip design. So
the AI inference chip that's that was designed

309
00:23:10.440 --> 00:23:14.240
by Tela, that's in cars.
We had sort of our hardware three AI

310
00:23:14.240 --> 00:23:18.599
inference cars made you over the past
year have the hardware four. We've just

311
00:23:18.640 --> 00:23:25.000
completed design on hardware five, which
we're now calling AI five because it's really

312
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is it's there's still actually is not
a chip or from and I have a

313
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lot of respect from a video any
company that we would prefer to put in

314
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our car that is better than what
we have in the car. So so

315
00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:52.440
we started from scratch in chip design
just says we started from scratch in AI

316
00:23:52.519 --> 00:23:56.119
software and have the best real world
AI software and the and the best AI

317
00:23:56.200 --> 00:24:03.680
infernence chip in the world from nothing. So this is you know, a

318
00:24:03.680 --> 00:24:11.319
big deal, and the capability of
the chips in the car is dramatic.

319
00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:15.279
Like I mean, right now all
the cars are actually training, like we

320
00:24:15.359 --> 00:24:21.039
have Hardware four run Hardware three in
emulation mode. So we'll continue to make

321
00:24:21.119 --> 00:24:25.559
significant progress in hardware three, but
later this year we'll actually bifurcate continue working

322
00:24:25.559 --> 00:24:32.960
on hardware three, training on hardware
three, but then do separate training on

323
00:24:33.119 --> 00:24:36.759
hardware four. That'll be the sort
of training cluster that we're building at the

324
00:24:36.799 --> 00:24:42.319
south side of the gigafactory, and
that'll be dedicated hardware for video and inference.

325
00:24:42.839 --> 00:24:48.240
And you know, so that the
hardware four has cameras that have about

326
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four or five times better resolution,
and depending on how you count the sort

327
00:24:53.000 --> 00:24:59.960
of harderfor it's about anywhere from three
to eight times better than hardware three.

328
00:25:00.359 --> 00:25:03.759
But everything you're seeing thus far is
just hardware three, and we still have

329
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:06.559
a long way to go before we
get we reach the limits of hardware three.

330
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So hardware three I think we'll still
we'll do amazing things. But hardware

331
00:25:10.319 --> 00:25:14.240
four, I think we'll probably do
about five times better. Then Hardware five,

332
00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:18.880
which comes out in about eighteen months
or so, is ten times more

333
00:25:18.880 --> 00:25:23.000
capable than hardware full. It's like
a if you know, in video hardware,

334
00:25:23.000 --> 00:25:27.799
it's sort of a B two hundred
class computer, so you know,

335
00:25:27.880 --> 00:25:33.079
that's like this. So what we'll
just progressively do is improve how many nines

336
00:25:33.160 --> 00:25:38.079
of reliability the car gets, and
then of course that will go into optimists

337
00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:41.839
as well. So the same chip
we'll go into you know, hardware full,

338
00:25:42.599 --> 00:25:47.720
we'll go into opto is an optimist. AI five, which you're switching

339
00:25:47.759 --> 00:25:51.279
from hardware five to a F five
will be an optimist and in all cars

340
00:25:51.359 --> 00:25:55.799
in about eighteen months. And it's
really just a staggering amount of compute,

341
00:25:55.880 --> 00:25:59.759
and it's very power efficient compute.
So it's got to be because if you're

342
00:25:59.759 --> 00:26:03.640
in an oval application like a humanoid
robot or a car, you can't just

343
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:07.039
be socking down ten kilowatts, you
know, like you can in a data

344
00:26:07.079 --> 00:26:10.960
center, So you've got to be
very power efficient. So the you know,

345
00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:15.200
sort of hardware three and four are
only a few hundred watts. Yeah,

346
00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:26.680
yeah, it's hard hardware five will
be able to go probably up to

347
00:26:26.720 --> 00:26:32.880
about seven or eight hundred watts,
but it'll power fluctuate contingent upon the complexity

348
00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:36.000
of the scene that it is in. So if it is in a parking

349
00:26:36.079 --> 00:26:38.519
lot, station areas, like,
you know, you know, you don't

350
00:26:38.519 --> 00:26:41.599
have to think very much, just
like a person like if you're in a

351
00:26:41.640 --> 00:26:45.480
complicated traffic scenario, you've got to
think a lot more than if you're just

352
00:26:45.559 --> 00:26:48.119
cruising long, you know, on
an empty road. But something that I

353
00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:52.440
think is potentially interesting down the road
is like, at some point, the

354
00:26:52.519 --> 00:26:56.240
Tesla fleet I think will probably be
you know, over one hundred million vehicles,

355
00:26:57.240 --> 00:27:04.200
and if each vehicle has a killer
watt of efficient, I think there's

356
00:27:04.240 --> 00:27:10.599
a there's I think there's a sort
of an Amazon Web Services AWS type opportunity

357
00:27:11.519 --> 00:27:15.480
because if you've got one hundred million
vehicles with a killowatt of efficients in furnace

358
00:27:15.519 --> 00:27:22.160
compute, you've got one hundred gigawatts
of compute, like one hundred gigawatts of

359
00:27:22.559 --> 00:27:26.880
computers a lot, and it's distributed
all over the world. So even so

360
00:27:26.920 --> 00:27:30.519
when the car is not in autonomous
mode, which I think probably is you

361
00:27:30.559 --> 00:27:37.160
know, doing ROBOTAXI work maybe fifty
sixty hours a week, but about one

362
00:27:37.200 --> 00:27:42.720
hundred hours a week it's not it's
probably stationary. So so there's one hundred

363
00:27:42.759 --> 00:27:48.720
hours of one hundred gigawatts of infernce
compute, which I think we should use.

364
00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:52.799
Why not. You know, when
people looked at Amazon, which started

365
00:27:52.799 --> 00:27:56.599
out obviously as an online bookseller,
and it's you know, has grown to

366
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:00.039
be and then they and then Amazon
Web Services, like, well, they

367
00:28:00.039 --> 00:28:07.759
got all these computers that only really
see peak usage sometimes, but what are

368
00:28:07.799 --> 00:28:11.279
they going to do when it's not
peak usage? And sometimes Amazon servers are

369
00:28:11.279 --> 00:28:12.640
down at like ten percent. So
that's when they said, well, let's

370
00:28:12.640 --> 00:28:18.920
do Amazon Web Services. And then
Amazon Web Services became more valuable than the

371
00:28:18.039 --> 00:28:22.039
entire rest of Amazon. And anyway, I think there's there's some kind of

372
00:28:22.039 --> 00:28:26.680
opportunity there that's pretty significant for Tesla
down the road. You know, again

373
00:28:26.759 --> 00:28:30.400
that's really nobody's really factoring that in, but I think that that actually will

374
00:28:30.440 --> 00:28:33.720
be quite significant. But we also
are no longer compute constrained for training,

375
00:28:34.359 --> 00:28:38.200
So I check in with the team, is like, is there anything we

376
00:28:38.240 --> 00:28:42.920
could do to improve the pace of
progress with respected training and inference? Currently

377
00:28:42.920 --> 00:28:45.240
that is not the limiting factor.
In fact, that the limiting factor right

378
00:28:45.240 --> 00:28:52.519
now is that the amount of miles
between interventions is so long that it takes

379
00:28:52.039 --> 00:28:56.039
quite a while to figure out which
version is better than the other version because

380
00:28:56.079 --> 00:29:02.079
that none of them are requiring any
interventions. So it's like, you know,

381
00:29:02.119 --> 00:29:04.279
if he's not getting to like thousands
of miles between interventions or like ten

382
00:29:04.319 --> 00:29:08.960
thousand miles to get an intervention,
then like, well, the average person

383
00:29:08.960 --> 00:29:14.200
only drives about ten thousand miles in
a year, and if it's in an

384
00:29:14.359 --> 00:29:18.599
urban environment and the average speed is
twenty miles an hour, I mean,

385
00:29:18.799 --> 00:29:22.720
so our professional test drivers get pretty
bored. Frankly, you know, they're

386
00:29:22.799 --> 00:29:26.000
like, Okay, I drove all
week and there was no intervention, Like

387
00:29:26.559 --> 00:29:30.240
the highlight of the week would be
like, yes, an intervention. Finally,

388
00:29:30.799 --> 00:29:37.519
it's like getting to that point.
So this is where actually having a

389
00:29:37.640 --> 00:29:41.680
giant fleet is extremely important because we
can deploy a new FST model and run

390
00:29:41.759 --> 00:29:48.680
it in shadow mode and see how
well it performs relative you know compare how

391
00:29:48.720 --> 00:29:53.359
the human drives the car versus the
new self driving build and then analyze that

392
00:29:53.440 --> 00:29:57.799
delta in shadow mode like the shadow
knows or doesn't know, does the case

393
00:29:57.839 --> 00:30:03.839
maybe, and then be able to
assess by getting billions of miles very quickly

394
00:30:03.680 --> 00:30:08.720
with the giant fleet like that.
Basically, that data engine is incredibly helpful.

395
00:30:08.759 --> 00:30:14.440
Like I actually, it's not possible
to solve the self driving problem without

396
00:30:14.480 --> 00:30:19.359
having millions of vehicles on the road. So that's actually the is like figuring

397
00:30:19.359 --> 00:30:26.640
out clever ways to test which how
good the next build FSD build is actually

398
00:30:26.680 --> 00:30:29.359
the limiting factor right now. And
then, of course, like I said,

399
00:30:29.359 --> 00:30:33.599
we are building another training data center
right here, which will be dedicated

400
00:30:33.640 --> 00:30:38.319
to hardware for training, So we'll
bifurcate hardware three and hardware four training later

401
00:30:38.400 --> 00:30:42.839
this year. We'll keep improving hardware
three, but we're gonna uncork the full

402
00:30:42.920 --> 00:30:56.759
capability of hardware four as well.
So yeah, I think most people here

403
00:30:56.799 --> 00:31:03.480
have tried out version twelve. I'd
say, like sort of unsupervised full self

404
00:31:03.519 --> 00:31:07.799
driving, full self driving version twelve, So we are actually just keeping the

405
00:31:07.880 --> 00:31:11.480
version arbitrarily at twelve and then like
calling a twelve point four, twelve point

406
00:31:11.480 --> 00:31:15.599
three, twelve point four to twelve
point five, but it's actually really like

407
00:31:15.680 --> 00:31:18.960
version thirteen, version fourteen. But
anyway, this is an arbitrary designation.

408
00:31:19.519 --> 00:31:25.880
So twelve point four is actually like
a whole different version than twelve point three,

409
00:31:26.000 --> 00:31:29.359
and twelve point five is a whole
different version twelve point four. So

410
00:31:30.519 --> 00:31:37.440
you'll see really giant improvements I think
sometimes factor of ten improvements between successive versions.

411
00:31:38.200 --> 00:31:41.000
And then, as I mentioned,
the way it'll work for the existing

412
00:31:41.000 --> 00:31:45.200
fleet is be able to add us
subtract your car to the fleets as you'd

413
00:31:45.279 --> 00:31:48.839
like, and there will also be
Tesla owned cars, so it'll be a

414
00:31:48.839 --> 00:31:55.240
combination of like Uber plus Airbnb.
But it'll be pretty wild that there'll be

415
00:31:55.279 --> 00:31:59.440
a software update and then the whole
fleet suddenly becomes accessible. It's like suddenly

416
00:31:59.480 --> 00:32:02.839
you've got seven million, ten million
cars that can ultimately tens of millions of

417
00:32:02.880 --> 00:32:07.640
cars that can do autonomous driving,
and instead of being used ten hours a

418
00:32:07.640 --> 00:32:23.640
week, can be used fifty or
sixty hours a week. So it's pretty

419
00:32:23.640 --> 00:32:29.000
well to just be in Palo Alta
with a bunch of cubes and then a

420
00:32:29.039 --> 00:32:32.640
humanoid robot just walks past. We've
made a massive amount of progress with Optimists

421
00:32:32.640 --> 00:32:37.200
in a short period of time,
from someone pretending to be a robot dancing

422
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:42.039
in a suit to a pretty hodgepodgy
robot to a robot that is actually doing

423
00:32:42.160 --> 00:32:45.799
useful tasks in the factory today.
So we have two Optimus robots in our

424
00:32:45.799 --> 00:32:52.559
Fremont factory that are doing basically this
task, which is taking cells off the

425
00:32:52.680 --> 00:32:55.559
end of the line and placing them
in a shipping container. And yeah,

426
00:32:57.000 --> 00:33:00.880
we actually have quite a few of
these cruising around our office in pal Alto.

427
00:33:00.599 --> 00:33:08.039
So there's and I think we've got
one major hardware revision which should be

428
00:33:08.079 --> 00:33:13.039
done by end of this year or
early next before and then we'll move into

429
00:33:13.200 --> 00:33:17.480
a limited production next year of Optimists, limited production for use in our factories

430
00:33:17.519 --> 00:33:22.519
where we'll test out the product kind
of you know, you know, as

431
00:33:22.559 --> 00:33:25.799
I say, sort of either and
dog food or whatever the electronic equivalent that

432
00:33:25.960 --> 00:33:31.079
is. So, but I think
like next year, my prediction is next

433
00:33:31.119 --> 00:33:37.359
year we'll have over over one thousand, maybe a few thousand Optimus robots working

434
00:33:37.440 --> 00:33:43.079
at Tesla, and and things are
going to scale up very rapidly from there,

435
00:33:43.720 --> 00:33:49.720
so well iron out the bugs.
It'll like the degree of autonomy will

436
00:33:49.759 --> 00:33:52.119
be radically better. You'll just literally
be able to talk to it and say,

437
00:33:52.200 --> 00:33:55.400
please do this task, or I'm
going to show you something. Now

438
00:33:55.519 --> 00:33:59.160
do that the thing that I am
showing you, and you know, get

439
00:33:59.200 --> 00:34:02.000
to the point where it can watch
a video of something like a person and

440
00:34:02.039 --> 00:34:07.440
then learn just by looking at that
video and do that task. So yeah,

441
00:34:07.639 --> 00:34:10.880
so really it's going to be quite
something, and I'm confident of the

442
00:34:12.280 --> 00:34:17.039
prediction that there will be more,
like the ratio of humanoid robots to humans

443
00:34:17.079 --> 00:34:21.360
will be greater than one to one, so that there'll be, you know,

444
00:34:21.800 --> 00:34:24.760
more than ten billion humanoid robots in
the world, probably twenty or more,

445
00:34:25.360 --> 00:34:30.000
and Tella is going to be by
far the leader in that. You're

446
00:34:30.000 --> 00:34:34.840
seeing a lot of robot startups,
but I think it's actually very challenging to

447
00:34:34.880 --> 00:34:39.320
do Optimists as a robots startup because
what we found to make Optimists work,

448
00:34:40.199 --> 00:34:46.199
We've had to design every design from
first principles from scratch. Every part of

449
00:34:46.239 --> 00:34:50.840
the robot, so the motor,
the gearbox, the power, electronics,

450
00:34:51.400 --> 00:34:55.159
the communications system, everything had to
be done from scratch. We found that

451
00:34:55.199 --> 00:35:00.440
there's basically nothing, there's no supply
chain. So even though there are many

452
00:35:00.480 --> 00:35:05.840
electric motors made in the world,
there's no supply chain for the types of

453
00:35:05.880 --> 00:35:10.239
motors and sensors and gearboxes that are
needed for humanoid robot. I mean,

454
00:35:10.239 --> 00:35:15.760
what you're saying here is our current
generation hand and arm, but actually which

455
00:35:15.760 --> 00:35:19.920
has eleven degrees of freedom, our
next generation has twenty two degrees of freedom.

456
00:35:20.400 --> 00:35:24.440
It will be able to play the
piano. So it's really like wow.

457
00:35:24.800 --> 00:35:27.480
Now, of course, like I
said, we need to make sure

458
00:35:27.679 --> 00:35:31.719
we don't have the terminator scenario.
That's very important. So safety of the

459
00:35:31.880 --> 00:35:38.039
humanoid drobot it will be very important. But because it requires so much ground

460
00:35:38.119 --> 00:35:43.079
up design, designing every motor,
gearbox, sensor, par electronics from scratch,

461
00:35:43.559 --> 00:35:45.800
it's very hard for a startup to
if not impossible for a startup to

462
00:35:45.880 --> 00:35:50.320
replicate that. But it tes that
we have the world's best electrical engineering.

463
00:35:51.119 --> 00:35:55.199
I think we've got the world's best
mechanical engineering for gearboxes and for the electric

464
00:35:55.239 --> 00:36:00.519
motors. Par electronics. You know, we have the resources to do that.

465
00:36:00.840 --> 00:36:05.239
It applies quite well. And then
you also have to have the brain.

466
00:36:05.360 --> 00:36:09.199
You need the you need a power
efficient inference computer, which we've got

467
00:36:09.199 --> 00:36:14.320
for the car, and we'll be
using an optimist, you need AI real

468
00:36:14.639 --> 00:36:16.440
you need to be the best in
real world AI, and Tela's the best

469
00:36:16.440 --> 00:36:20.599
in real world AI, So you
need all of these. You need a

470
00:36:20.719 --> 00:36:24.239
very strong hand of cards in order
to make a compelling robot. And then

471
00:36:24.400 --> 00:36:29.519
you also need to be very good
at scale manufacturing. So in order to

472
00:36:29.599 --> 00:36:32.559
have the robot not cost like hundreds
of thousands of dollars, in order to

473
00:36:32.599 --> 00:36:37.440
make it cost like ten or twenty
thousand dollars, you actually need to design

474
00:36:37.519 --> 00:36:43.000
for manufacturing and be very good at
manufacturing. And what in my experience,

475
00:36:43.400 --> 00:36:47.400
prototypes are easy compared to volume manufacturing, prototypes are easy. Production is hard,

476
00:36:47.480 --> 00:36:52.360
relatively speaking. So Tela has the
production capability, it has the engineering

477
00:36:52.440 --> 00:36:59.039
capability, and it has the AI
hardware and software capability. And even the

478
00:36:59.079 --> 00:37:06.920
most optimistic estimates that I've seen for
optimists, the optimist I think under account

479
00:37:07.519 --> 00:37:09.760
the magnitude of what this robot will
be able to do. You know,

480
00:37:09.880 --> 00:37:14.360
as I said at the beginning of
the presentation, you know, I agree

481
00:37:14.360 --> 00:37:20.920
with the ark and Best analysis that
autonomous transport is called sort of a five

482
00:37:20.920 --> 00:37:25.599
to seven trillion dollar market cap situation. Optimists, I think is a twenty

483
00:37:25.679 --> 00:37:30.639
five literally twenty five trillion dollar market
cap situation, the

