1 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,160 We're back with another edition of The Federalist or Radio Hour. I'm Emily Dashinsky, 2 00:00:22,199 --> 00:00:24,600 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the 3 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:28,239 show at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on exit FDR ls 4 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,359 T. Make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course 5 00:00:31,359 --> 00:00:35,159 to the premium version of our website as well. Today, if you follow 6 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:39,799 politics closely, is something of a holiday. It is the Iowa Caucus Day, 7 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,479 and we are joined by Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith and 8 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:48,799 Freedom Coalition once again, who knows all about Iowa, Who's heading into a 9 00:00:48,799 --> 00:00:52,799 blizzard pretty soon. Timothy, thanks for joining us on the show. Well, 10 00:00:52,799 --> 00:00:55,560 thank you so much for being here and always great to be with you. 11 00:00:55,679 --> 00:01:00,000 This is like you said this for you for it's kind of like super 12 00:01:00,039 --> 00:01:03,920 well Sunday or something for a lot of extremely politically engaged people, you know, 13 00:01:06,359 --> 00:01:11,480 And so it's it's both exciting and also kind of a I don't know, 14 00:01:11,599 --> 00:01:15,439 like a like a fulcrum. You know, you feel like you're like 15 00:01:15,519 --> 00:01:22,359 crossing over officially into presidential election season once, once this thing actually gets gets 16 00:01:22,439 --> 00:01:26,640 kicked off, you know. I always love when things not just holidays or 17 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,760 whatever. But when things are the idealized versions of themselves, and it looks 18 00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:34,640 like we're recording this on Friday and it's going to run on Monday, on 19 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,519 Iowa Caucus Day, it looks like the Iowa Caucus is going to be the 20 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:42,239 sort of idealized version of the Iowa Caucus. Because blizzards have descended upon Iowa, 21 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:49,200 the candidates are making their last ditch efforts to spread their word to me 22 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,400 the I want to ask you just a little bit about the significance of Iowa 23 00:01:53,519 --> 00:01:57,400 because people are actually debating that, you know, more in more detail than 24 00:01:57,439 --> 00:02:00,439 they have in years past, this year, with some conversations about Iowa's role 25 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:05,200 going forward. But you know Iowa, Well, what is the sort of 26 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,280 significance that it plays at least this cycle twenty twenty four? What rule will 27 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:14,560 Iowa have in this primary? Well, I think part of the reason why 28 00:02:14,599 --> 00:02:21,280 it's why it's being debated a little more, a little more kind of vehemently, 29 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:27,000 is because listen, I mean, over the last basically twelve to sixteen 30 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:35,719 years, the Democrats have performed worse and worse in Iowa, and so really 31 00:02:35,719 --> 00:02:42,520 in twenty twenty I would say the conversation became heated in Democrat circles. They 32 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:46,120 basically said, you know, from their perspective, why are we having all 33 00:02:46,159 --> 00:02:50,280 of these conversations in a part of the country, in a state specifically that 34 00:02:50,439 --> 00:02:55,680 is that's not a majority minority, And so they actually moved there first. 35 00:02:55,680 --> 00:03:00,240 In the nation, they're kind of doing this weird hybrid where they're technically having 36 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,599 an election or caucuses, but they don't actually count until later, and they're 37 00:03:04,599 --> 00:03:09,280 really moving the first one that quote unquote counts as now Nevada and are in 38 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:15,560 South Carolina. They've kind of like re reoriented the Democrat primary process to exclude 39 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:22,759 Iowa, but frankly, in the very same reasons why they want to exclude 40 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:27,879 Iowa or the frankly probably the main reasons why we get Faith in Freedom coalition 41 00:03:28,759 --> 00:03:34,080 want to continue to have Iowa. Be that that kind of pole position, 42 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,159 if you will. So, you know, most of us don't really think 43 00:03:37,199 --> 00:03:42,319 a lot about this, but the fact that we have the first primary, 44 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,639 which is a caucus in Iowa mid January, then the second, you know, 45 00:03:46,639 --> 00:03:50,599 we go to New Hampshire. The third about two and a half weeks 46 00:03:50,599 --> 00:03:53,919 after New Hampshire comes Nevada, so we go out to the west coast, 47 00:03:53,599 --> 00:03:59,159 and then the fourth of those so called carve out states goes to South Carolina 48 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:03,240 for us and Freedom's you know, as your listeners might might know, we 49 00:04:03,599 --> 00:04:08,599 work on the way we like to say is we work on public policy from 50 00:04:08,639 --> 00:04:13,520 a biblical worldview within a constitutional framework. And so that means that we want 51 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:19,560 voters that vote from a biblical worldview and want a constitutional framework to be not 52 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:24,959 only heard in that in that process, but even you know, arguably preferred 53 00:04:25,439 --> 00:04:29,600 in that in that process. And so for us, there's the state of 54 00:04:29,639 --> 00:04:34,120 Iowa. On the Republican side, you can actually register three different ways Republican, 55 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:39,279 Democrat, or independent in Iowan. It's almost exactly a third to third 56 00:04:39,319 --> 00:04:44,879 to third of those. But of the registered Republicans in Iowa basically just shied 57 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,920 seventy percent of those sixty seven sixty eight percent of those identify as faith based 58 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:56,920 voters either usually evangelical or Catholic voters in Iowa. So you know, so 59 00:04:56,959 --> 00:04:59,279 basically, you know, two out of three, a little over two out 60 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:02,879 of three voters that are going to be going to caucuses this this coming week 61 00:05:03,879 --> 00:05:09,439 are are coming from a kind of a basically a biblical constitutional perspective when it 62 00:05:09,439 --> 00:05:13,959 comes to policies and their candidates. And then we actually toggle later on to 63 00:05:14,079 --> 00:05:19,000 late February in South Carolina, it's almost the exact same number. It's actually 64 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:24,519 right at seventy percent in South Carolina. I also identify as faith based voters. 65 00:05:24,519 --> 00:05:28,000 And so a little bit two out of three. That's a lot of 66 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,879 work on the ground for you in the last I'm sure the last year plus. 67 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,480 But yeah, well you know that's that's you know, as a as 68 00:05:33,519 --> 00:05:42,120 an an organization that kind of works perennially, perpetually, you know, are 69 00:05:42,199 --> 00:05:46,680 kind of quoter fight framing for these kinds of issues for us around faith and 70 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,439 Freedom is that we have a special, a special term for the day after 71 00:05:50,519 --> 00:05:56,560 elections at Faith and Fried and Coalition. They're just called Wednesdays that you know, 72 00:05:56,639 --> 00:05:59,959 once everybody else kind of checks out and goes back to soccer practice, 73 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,759 work and stuff. After a presidential election or even after a primary here, 74 00:06:03,759 --> 00:06:08,480 we just kind of go we we just flip the calendar and go right back 75 00:06:08,519 --> 00:06:12,079 to work. So so we're working with these voters constantly, literally on a 76 00:06:12,199 --> 00:06:15,120 on a year round basis. And uh, and so from a structural standpoint, 77 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:23,240 the fact that presidential would be presidential candidates have to sort of orient their 78 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,879 their message and their policies for that matter, to these kinds of voters. 79 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,759 And actually Nevada has a as a surprisingly high number of evangelical and Catholic voters 80 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,120 as well, so and and for that matter, a lot of Latter Day 81 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:42,079 Saint voters in addition, so again a lot of conservative faith based voters in 82 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,920 Nevada. So three of the first four have extremely large percentages in the Republican 83 00:06:46,959 --> 00:06:53,360 primary or caucus. Uh that are that are again that kind of religious conservative 84 00:06:53,759 --> 00:06:57,240 perspective, and so we we like that. And then of course, right 85 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,879 after we we do the South Carolina votes, and then we go to Super 86 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,439 Tuesday fifteen states, of which you'd probably say nine or ten of those are 87 00:07:04,519 --> 00:07:09,000 kind of you know, either southern, Southeastern, or kind of midwestern. 88 00:07:09,079 --> 00:07:12,160 So yet again, so you know, part of the reason why the Democrats 89 00:07:13,959 --> 00:07:17,959 don't necessarily emphasize this kind of message or these kind of policies is because they've 90 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:25,160 kind of built the primaries to sort of carve out this constituency. There are 91 00:07:25,199 --> 00:07:29,319 ideological reasons, for sure, but you know, so the ideological reasons are 92 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,480 part of the reason why they've moved away from Iowa and moved to Nomada. 93 00:07:32,319 --> 00:07:36,920 So anyway, that's you know, kind of a below the hood, if 94 00:07:36,959 --> 00:07:41,720 you will. There actually are some kind of inter nicing fights, if you 95 00:07:41,879 --> 00:07:45,439 mean, we'll put it in air quotes, but we'll just call them lively 96 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:50,079 debates. Maybe there are some people that argue that Iowa shouldn't be first or 97 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:55,519 early in South Carolina shouldn't be first or early. But but you know, 98 00:07:55,560 --> 00:08:00,680 again and kind of off the off season. Faith and Freedom is one of 99 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:05,480 the main voices that actually pushes pretty hard within the RNC to make sure that 100 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:11,120 this sequence remains the same. We think that it's actually a really really big 101 00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:13,800 deal. The other piece that the last thing I'll say is also it's a 102 00:08:13,879 --> 00:08:20,079 very grassroots oriented state. So you you know, just about three million, 103 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:24,680 just over three million residents or citizens in Iowa, roughly six hundred and fifty 104 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,759 to seven hundred thousand of them live in Des Moines. So basically, you 105 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,680 know, you still have two thirds of the of the state that do not 106 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:37,200 live in the main metropolitan area. So it's a lot of them very rural. 107 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,840 As people would guess, it's you know, pretty agriculture, agricultural and 108 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:48,080 so we think that it brings candidates closer to actual voters. You can't just 109 00:08:48,159 --> 00:08:50,919 buy a bunch of you know, if you run and if Florida was first 110 00:08:50,919 --> 00:08:56,519 in the nation, it would completely change the orientation of politics for the Republican 111 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:01,879 Party. If you did that, like three consecutive presidential cycles, basically all 112 00:09:01,919 --> 00:09:07,080 the money would buy TV's TV ads and nobody would actually ever do live events 113 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,480 anymore, which is, if you think about it, basically exactly what Democrats 114 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:16,600 have done. Has there been anything that surprised you. We talked about this 115 00:09:16,639 --> 00:09:18,200 a little bit last time, but you know, there are a lot of 116 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:24,159 cliches and stereotypes when it comes to voters of faith. That two thirds number 117 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:28,879 is remarkable. Has there been any takeaways you've had talking to voters and some 118 00:09:28,919 --> 00:09:33,919 of these coalitions on the ground their reactions to the candidates. Was there anything 119 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:39,039 that maybe caught you off guard or took you by surprise as you've been working 120 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,480 for months and months and months now on this group of voters in Iowa, 121 00:09:41,879 --> 00:09:46,159 well in Iowa and in South Carolina, I'd say that one of the interesting 122 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:52,360 things in Iowa that really I would voters these caucus goers. I expect we'll 123 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,240 probably see close to two hundred thousand that'll attend in these caucuses. And they 124 00:09:56,279 --> 00:10:03,440 take this vetting role very very seriously. And so you know, I've literally 125 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:09,240 had like I mean, ten or twelve individual voters tell me that they don't 126 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:15,440 make up their mind until they personally met a candidate at least four times. 127 00:10:15,919 --> 00:10:20,799 One lady said, I will not vote for somebody. Like to think about 128 00:10:20,799 --> 00:10:26,679 how many presidential candidates you met in your life personally this this lady basically said 129 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,120 I will not do it. I will not vote for somebody that I'm not 130 00:10:28,639 --> 00:10:33,639 personally met four times or more. One day, we said I won't do 131 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:39,200 it until I've sat in a room with them, like have a conversation with 132 00:10:39,279 --> 00:10:43,320 them, not even like at a ropeline or whatever. So God bless Iowa. 133 00:10:43,519 --> 00:10:46,440 Oh my goodness. These people are engaged with that kind of grassroots engagement. 134 00:10:48,159 --> 00:10:50,039 And then I mean, they know these people's social Security numbers. It's 135 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,399 it's not just kind of like you know, they flipped on the they watched 136 00:10:54,399 --> 00:11:00,919 the TV TV and on Saturday before or you know they you know, follow 137 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,639 a Twitter account or something like that. That is not how this goes in 138 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,720 Iowa. So I'll say that to say, one of the really interesting things 139 00:11:07,759 --> 00:11:13,320 that's maybe probably not historically I'm literally unprecedented, but unusual, is we have, 140 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:18,960 you know, Trump, who obviously was the president in twenty in the 141 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,559 twenty twenty cycles, so he literally was an incumbent, and then he obviously 142 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:28,960 loses, and so you might think that the sort of entropy political entropy of 143 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,559 Iowa would say so everybody will just go back to the quote unquote incumbent, 144 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,879 And I would say that there definitely are many, many loyalists and huge fans 145 00:11:37,919 --> 00:11:41,200 of Trump in Iowa, but a huge swath. I mean, I would 146 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,360 say well over half of the voters that I've interacted with, even though they 147 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,240 probably are favorable towards Trump, they kind of like went back to the starting 148 00:11:48,279 --> 00:11:52,759 line and said, we're going to reevaluate this entire thing from scratch, and 149 00:11:52,840 --> 00:12:01,039 certainly his his his record goes into play there. But they didn't just sort 150 00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:09,200 of give an automatic inclination towards Trump that they very much wanted to vet DeSantis, 151 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:13,559 wanted to vet Haley, wanted to vet Chris Christie. I mean, 152 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:18,200 Christy's been a part of the process before in Iowa. But Ramaswami wanted to 153 00:12:18,279 --> 00:12:22,159 vet vet him, you know, pretty pretty intimately there. So it's actually 154 00:12:22,159 --> 00:12:28,240 a really interesting process just to see people want to make sure that they kind 155 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:33,440 of like did the they worked out the entire math equation from the from the 156 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:39,639 beginning and didn't just sort of rely on you know, kind of passed immedia 157 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,240 past history, you know, in some ways. Vivik Ramaswami we had him 158 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,039 on this podcast not too long ago, speaks a language that's really familiar to 159 00:12:46,799 --> 00:12:52,519 faith based voters, whether they're evangelical Christians or more orthodox Catholics. But his 160 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,519 own faith is not the typical story of somebody who does speak that language so 161 00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,840 fluently. I wanted to ask him a little bit about how he's been received 162 00:13:00,919 --> 00:13:05,480 by the voters that you're so familiar with in Iowa. The cycle. Yeah. 163 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,320 So, so we as an organization did two events. We did an 164 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:16,759 event in April and in one portion of Des Moines and had had him and 165 00:13:16,759 --> 00:13:20,440 and at that time there were there were ten declared candidates, had actually all 166 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:24,799 ten show up to that uh. And then nationally we did our own event, 167 00:13:24,039 --> 00:13:26,720 our national event in Washington, d C. In late June, and 168 00:13:26,759 --> 00:13:33,240 then once again. We'd actually did another event downtown Des Moines in mid September, 169 00:13:33,279 --> 00:13:37,559 and the Veik went to all four all three of those events, two 170 00:13:37,639 --> 00:13:41,440 in two in Iowa itself and then one in d C. And he's actually 171 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:45,360 done other events elsewhere with us. But he personally showed up, as my 172 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,519 point, and and kind of lock people in the in the eyes and let 173 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,200 them do the same. And and I mean, honestly, he's uh you 174 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,879 probably saw when you interacted with him, but he's a very compelling public speaker, 175 00:13:56,919 --> 00:13:58,919 but also just very engaging, you know, interpersonally. You know, 176 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:05,279 wife both are very sort of affable, likable people. And uh, and 177 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,039 I think that that's that's one of the ways I think that you know, 178 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:13,200 back to that kind of grassroots you know, there's a there's a couple of 179 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,600 pizza places there in Iowa that they are sort of famous or infamous for for, 180 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,279 and so a lot of people like to, like, you know, 181 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,559 sit down in those piece of parlors and hear people. And he does very 182 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,000 well in that in that kind of setting. So what he's saying is is 183 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:33,519 definitely the policies themselves resonate, but really just his personality and his own personal 184 00:14:33,559 --> 00:14:39,679 story also resonate with people, and and I don't I've never actually personally interacted 185 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,840 with people that that, you know, the fact that he is not an 186 00:14:43,919 --> 00:14:48,960 evangelical or Catholic that was not like automatically counted against him. It was new. 187 00:14:50,039 --> 00:14:52,799 I mean, most of those people haven't really interacted much either. Maybe 188 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,240 some of them have never met a Hindu period that certainly have never had a 189 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:03,399 presidential candidate or a possibilit possible presidential candidate who was a Hindu. So they 190 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,240 just wanted to kind of sort of play that out a little bit. What 191 00:15:05,279 --> 00:15:07,679 does that look like, What does it look like personally? What is that 192 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,600 you know, are there other implications for public policy that we haven't really thought 193 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:16,759 about before, kind of rehearsed those those you know, kind of logic exercises 194 00:15:16,799 --> 00:15:22,559 out and and you know, honestly, you would probably say some of his 195 00:15:22,559 --> 00:15:28,200 his public policy as it relates, for instance, to Israel, might be 196 00:15:28,279 --> 00:15:33,840 a decent sort of illustration of that that that there are national security elements to 197 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:41,639 to most Christian politicians calculus on public policy as it relates to Israel. But 198 00:15:41,679 --> 00:15:46,480 they're also for a lot of those those Christian policy makers there's a there's a 199 00:15:46,519 --> 00:15:52,080 certain kind of biblical element to that as well, either historical biblical or or 200 00:15:52,279 --> 00:15:56,559 you know, in some settings, some theologies you know, have significant kind 201 00:15:56,559 --> 00:16:00,919 of future theological implications that that relate to Israel. So there is kind of 202 00:16:00,919 --> 00:16:07,039 this theological twist even though you're making foreign policy and clearly, you know, 203 00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:14,080 you would say that Ramaswami has more of an isolationist approach as it relates both 204 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:18,919 to Israel and others. So that's an example of questions that a lot of 205 00:16:18,039 --> 00:16:22,240 people in Iowa will ask that question and sort of you know, work that 206 00:16:22,519 --> 00:16:26,519 worked that answer out in ways that people that are just watching TV, you 207 00:16:26,559 --> 00:16:32,639 know, are not necessarily going to sort of work their way through that problem. 208 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:34,120 You know, that was one of the biggest questions I had for you, 209 00:16:34,159 --> 00:16:37,159 timd because I think the last time we talked was before the actually seventh 210 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:42,679 attacks, and I imagine that's had a real influence on the way candidates have 211 00:16:42,879 --> 00:16:48,559 approached especially the issue of Israel obviously, but foreign policy in general. On 212 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,080 the campaign trail over the last couple of months, can you talk to us 213 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:56,159 a little bit about how especially since you know there have been stories on like 214 00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:00,960 Glenn Greenwold wrote a story about the divide between Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carls and 215 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:04,279 they sort of high level disputes that are happening in the conservative discourse. Have 216 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:10,759 those trickled into the campaign trail in Iowa? What is that done basically to 217 00:17:10,759 --> 00:17:12,960 the Iowa caucuses? If it has had much of an effect, well, 218 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,200 I think it probably has had a direct effect. But you know, one 219 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,559 of the interesting things you know about it, it certainly relates to I would 220 00:17:22,559 --> 00:17:26,240 also I think it affects New Hampshire as well, that you know, their 221 00:17:26,279 --> 00:17:33,319 public policy considerations, and certainly you know a lot of people watched, I 222 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,400 forget the ultimate number of debates, but watched you know, five or six 223 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,359 different debates and different iterations and and some of it you're kind of listening, 224 00:17:41,559 --> 00:17:47,839 you know, just to see on the the the public policy positions themselves. 225 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,240 But once you watched six debates, there's probably not a lot of novelty to 226 00:17:51,319 --> 00:17:55,240 the policy positions, but you're almost waiting to see, you know, some 227 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:59,960 of it's the personality, some of it's you know, can people avoid major 228 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,680 gaffs or faux pause for you know, six consecutive debates? You know, 229 00:18:03,759 --> 00:18:07,079 things of that nature. And so what I'm saying is there's a certain element 230 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:11,359 of kind of part of the reason why Iowa I think breaks so late is 231 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:18,880 because momentum is very much a very real currency, if you will, political 232 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,599 currency. For Frankly, as somebody that's you know, run run campaigns, 233 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,559 I would actually argue that it's it's the case in every single race. But 234 00:18:26,559 --> 00:18:30,480 but you definitely see a play out in a in a race like this high 235 00:18:30,559 --> 00:18:34,160 level race, is momentum is a huge, huge element. And and you 236 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:41,160 would say that Frankly, probably the October seventh event, as tragic as it 237 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:47,119 was, is very much kind of in the wheelhouse, the policy wheelhouse of 238 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:49,640 of Nikki Hayley. And so you would you would argue that I would say, 239 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,720 it's actually pretty it's almost linear, like you could chart on a on 240 00:18:52,799 --> 00:18:56,799 a graph. You know that her the momiment momentum that she started to pick 241 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:03,240 up on the presidential level is very much correlates on the calendar to you know, 242 00:19:03,279 --> 00:19:08,319 from October the eighth, she starts speaking very very forcefully not only before 243 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:15,759 Israel but also against Hamas and other kind of proxies of Iran, and that 244 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,880 clearly resonated with many many people. But then you'd also possibly track that there's 245 00:19:21,279 --> 00:19:23,640 you knows, there's become a bit of fatigue. It's not you wouldn't say 246 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:30,039 that the waves has eliminated, has has gone by the wayside, but it's 247 00:19:30,079 --> 00:19:34,160 it's potentially crested on public opinion, and you know, some people are kind 248 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,039 of saying, you know, exactly how far should we not only go in 249 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:41,799 Israel, but maybe also in Ukraine, and and so you know, she's 250 00:19:41,799 --> 00:19:47,759 probably slightly subsided. So she had you know, my point is that she's 251 00:19:47,799 --> 00:19:56,440 got a the the momentum that she kind of caught from the outrage immediately following 252 00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,440 the October seventh attacks, has has has very well, it has very closely 253 00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:07,559 kind of tracked public sentiment the ire against Hamas and in Iran, and then 254 00:20:07,599 --> 00:20:11,720 also a little bit of the fatigue around that sub that subject. And so 255 00:20:11,759 --> 00:20:18,119 she's trying to kind of find another another lease on on that momentum, if 256 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,559 you will, you know, as as we're coming down the home stretch, 257 00:20:19,599 --> 00:20:23,680 certainly for for Iwaen is she can perform well in in i well, there's 258 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,839 no you know, straight number to that, but but if she does as 259 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:33,039 well or better than expect and then the expectations there will be momentum coming for 260 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,119 her coming out of Iowa and going into New Hampshire, which is really where 261 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,000 she's put most all but most of her eggs are actually in the the New 262 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:47,039 Hampshire basket, so to speak, at this point, and you know, 263 00:20:47,079 --> 00:20:51,440 so it's there, you very much have to kind of you know, in 264 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,240 sports, it's a little bit like playing the World Series, like you want 265 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,119 to win the first game, but but you're trying to win, you know, 266 00:20:56,240 --> 00:21:00,240 the best of seven, and so the second game strategy is as important 267 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,599 as the first game, and a lot of people just played for the first 268 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,920 game. Just for Iowa, she and her campaign have very much scripted, 269 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,880 at least for the first four you know, we'd say two and a half 270 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:17,279 of the first four states are her strategy more so than just sort of all 271 00:21:17,319 --> 00:21:22,039 the cards on the table for Iowa. Are you a Braves fan, Tim 272 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,440 I am. I'm an Atlanta Braves fan. I do live in Atlanta. 273 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:32,079 So that was part of my voter registration ticket. Actually here was swearing allegiance 274 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:36,480 to the Braves. You said Atlanta Braves. I was going to mention we 275 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,519 can at least agree on the braves. I have a Milwaukee Braves hat, 276 00:21:38,559 --> 00:21:42,240 an old Milwaukee Braves hat. Those were cool. It was a it was 277 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:47,680 a cool The hats are really cool. That is so off topic though, 278 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,440 although I imagine maybe a way to connect to this that when you're in Iowa 279 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:55,319 you probably eat culvers from time to time. Well indeed I do, and 280 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:59,559 I was able to when Culver has expanded into Georgia a couple of years ago. 281 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,519 They were to tell people, uh, you know, get some get 282 00:22:02,559 --> 00:22:06,720 some cheese, curds and culverts. It's a Western thing. Southerners were like, 283 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,640 what is this. You've had all yeah, you had all that Iowa 284 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:12,319 experience. Well. Actually, one thing that Vek mentioned when he was on 285 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:17,039 Federalist Radio are not too long ago, is that he thinks he wasn't really 286 00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:21,200 bullish about winning. He thinks so that there will be some surprises in the 287 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:26,319 outcome of the caucus versus the polling, that you know, the polling might 288 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:32,160 not be capturing the state of affairs as accurately as some people think that it 289 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:33,319 is. So I want to get your take on Tim on this. Tim, 290 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,680 you know, do you feel like the polling and Iowa has been pretty 291 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:41,359 good or are you also maybe expecting some potentially significant surprises. Yeah. So 292 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,079 again this is uh, you know, I hate to say, one of 293 00:22:45,079 --> 00:22:48,599 the reasons why I like being with you, Emily is because we're able to 294 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,680 sort of unpack, you know, some of this stuff that that you know, 295 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,039 in other setting, we have to be a little more quippy with. 296 00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:03,559 But so the difference between a caucus and a primary matters in that, you 297 00:23:03,599 --> 00:23:07,160 know, So for for your listeners at caucus, basically instead of you know, 298 00:23:08,039 --> 00:23:11,400 Tim or Emily showing up, we show our id. We walk in 299 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,440 the front door, you know, they say, go to that that uh, 300 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,119 you know polling place over there. You're there for three minutes, you 301 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:19,920 go through the whole exercise, and then you go out the you go out 302 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,880 the door you came in. What happens in a in a caucus is everybody 303 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:29,720 shows up. So if if we're in a certain precinct, our our precinct 304 00:23:29,759 --> 00:23:33,079 meets at whatever the local middle school or the basement of this nearby church or 305 00:23:33,599 --> 00:23:38,400 you know, some some public meeting area. And uh, the largest caucuses 306 00:23:38,599 --> 00:23:45,079 in in Iowa and really around des moin area will have literally like eight hundred 307 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,960 people in a caucus. They meet in all like a gymnasium. It looks 308 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,440 like a basketball a basketball game, and they they actually like they at a 309 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,440 certain point they closed the door so you can show up early, but they 310 00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:02,200 closed the doors and then everybody is allowed to come and speak on behalf of 311 00:24:02,279 --> 00:24:07,559 their preferred candidate, and frankly, for some of these really large ones, 312 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:12,240 the actual candidate will show up him or herself. And so I've actually worked 313 00:24:12,799 --> 00:24:18,200 I volunteer at these things just administratively, just to kind of help, you 314 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,359 know, open the doors and make sure that elderly people can get in and 315 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:26,000 this kind of stuff. And I've I mean the last one that I was 316 00:24:26,079 --> 00:24:29,839 or the one in twenty sixteen, there were six different presidential candidates that came 317 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:34,119 into the caucus room that I was in that gave their pitch. And so 318 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:40,640 so either the caucus members or the candidates or other surrogates come into these caucus 319 00:24:40,759 --> 00:24:44,279 rooms give their pitch, and then once everybody's kind of said their piece, 320 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,319 then they vote all on them just a piece of paper. So what I'm 321 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:53,720 saying with all this is a kind of best practice or gold plated campaign in 322 00:24:53,799 --> 00:25:00,240 Iowa is not really at most it's fifty percent kind of marketing, you know, 323 00:25:00,319 --> 00:25:04,480 TV ads and stuff. There's a huge ground game organizational element to this 324 00:25:06,559 --> 00:25:08,240 that I would say Trump is actually done very well with, and I would 325 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,039 also just say DeSantis has done very well with. Frankly, I would say 326 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:17,279 Haley's Haley's team. Again, they're more focused in New Hampshire, so their 327 00:25:17,319 --> 00:25:21,400 ground game and I was probably not quite as strong. What that means is, 328 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:29,519 I think it's entirely possible that DeSantis kind of overperforms recent polling because he 329 00:25:29,599 --> 00:25:34,200 and their team have like five hundred caucus leaders that are going to each of 330 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,480 their respective caucuses and like organizing inviting people their neighbor, Hey, don't stay 331 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:44,440 home tonight even though it's a blizzard. So it's kind of like measures not 332 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,559 only the organizational kind of power of the campaign, but it also measures like 333 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:53,680 the dedication the fervor of each of the voters. So if I just kind 334 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:59,359 of like candidate X and it's a blizzard, I may not go. If 335 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,680 I really really love candidate X, then I'm still going. And so all 336 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,359 of that. You know, again that sounds a little bit uh too granular, 337 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,200 but but I would say there's a I would say there's a good chance 338 00:26:11,279 --> 00:26:17,720 that again, the Dysantas kind of slightly overperform some of the polling. And 339 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,920 and look, I mean this is there, They're pulling exactly eagle equal right 340 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:27,720 now DeSantis and Haley. And that if if DeSantis does well and Haley does 341 00:26:27,799 --> 00:26:32,799 not do quite as well, that absolutely could have an impact on New Hampshire. 342 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,680 And and if New Hampshire doesn't go well for DeSantis, there's a good 343 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,599 chance in New Hampshire may not that Dysantis may not make it to South Carolina, 344 00:26:42,079 --> 00:26:47,240 you know. So so again kind of that that multi game approach to 345 00:26:47,279 --> 00:26:52,440 the World Series. Having a ground game in Iowa, you can outperform hence 346 00:26:52,519 --> 00:26:57,279 beat expectations, which then can trans transition you into the week later in New 347 00:26:57,319 --> 00:27:02,079 Hampshire. Then you can fund raise. If you outperform in New Hampshire, 348 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:07,160 you have about three weeks to really fundraise strongly going into South Carolina. And 349 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:12,160 so so yes, I actually think that that Trump probably will be about on 350 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:18,079 par with what what you would expect. But I wouldn't be surprised if Hailey 351 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:25,319 slightly underperforms in the Caucuses, and I wouldn't be surprised if if DeSantis slightly 352 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,640 overperforms their their recent polls. The last thing I'll say is the Des Moines 353 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:34,240 Register is really probably the quote unquote gold standard of polling that everybody else is 354 00:27:34,319 --> 00:27:37,119 kind of doing. You know, they're trying to figure out how I Wan's 355 00:27:37,839 --> 00:27:42,359 you know, the turnout model is sort of the secret sauce to that thing. 356 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:48,039 And there's one particular polar that does does her polling for de Win Register 357 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:52,480 that that knows that like the back of her hand, and everybody else is 358 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,759 still trying to kind of read the fine prints. So watched the Des Moin 359 00:27:56,839 --> 00:28:03,079 Register polling and and then the the campaign infrastructure truly does make a big difference 360 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:08,880 there. Do you think the debates have had a significant impact on the sort 361 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:15,039 of shifts in I mean, i was always been a different state than what 362 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,079 was happening in New Hampshire, as some similarities between what was happening in South 363 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:22,240 Carolina. As you're actually on the ground talking to grassroots folks, talking to 364 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:27,039 you the caucusgoers who aren't your average Republican primary voters, because if you're involved 365 00:28:27,039 --> 00:28:30,640 in the Iowa caucus, it's a different it's a different tradition, it's a 366 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,880 different level of engagement. Do you feel like the debates have made a big 367 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:41,759 difference to those voters. In short, I would say generally yes. Again, 368 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:45,839 I think among other things, well, I mean, first you kind 369 00:28:45,839 --> 00:28:48,440 of have to start with the premise, of course Trump does not participate in 370 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:52,680 any of the debates, and which also kind of tracks essentially with the nature 371 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:57,279 of this primary, which is essentially everybody's been competing for who's going to be 372 00:28:57,319 --> 00:29:03,720 the quote unquote alternative to Don't Trump. And so the reason why you have 373 00:29:03,759 --> 00:29:07,039 to watch, like how does Trump do? Is if if if Trump starts 374 00:29:07,079 --> 00:29:11,200 to really exceed fifty percent in multiple states, then it doesn't matter who the 375 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,880 alternative is. But if Trump still is kind of hovering forty four, forty 376 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:21,839 five, forty six percent, then whoever the last alternative is standing stands a 377 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,640 chance to become, you know, to get fifty to fifty one, fifty 378 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,799 two percent. And I think that that's essentially what the exercise has been in 379 00:29:27,839 --> 00:29:33,240 the debates is who who can kind of be the last man or maybe last 380 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,279 woman standing in that debate to then you know, and frankly that's probably what 381 00:29:37,359 --> 00:29:41,359 New Hampshire, what what Iowa, and definitely New Hampshire will will be the 382 00:29:41,359 --> 00:29:48,039 final test is who will be that last person standing as the alternative and if 383 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,759 and so there's there's there's the pure voting element to that, and then there 384 00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:59,200 also is the financial engagement, because there still are very significant dollars that are 385 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:03,720 kind of waiting on this sideline that just don't either personally don't like something about 386 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,960 Donald Trump or strategically don't think that he can win for you know, three 387 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,400 or four or five different reasons. So if you can be the last man 388 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,839 again or woman standing, if you have momentum coming out of New Hampshire and 389 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,240 especially coming out of South Carolina, if you do well coming out of South 390 00:30:19,279 --> 00:30:23,160 Carolina, you've got a very short window that somebody really might be able to 391 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,880 raise seventy five million dollars in like two weeks time. So I think the 392 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:36,920 debates have successfully, in a sense kind of from their perspective, served to 393 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:41,039 kind of window the field down basically to DeSantis and Haley. I think most 394 00:30:41,039 --> 00:30:42,839 people thought the Santis would be in it. I don't know that how many 395 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:51,039 people definitively would have put money on Haley being that other person. But you 396 00:30:51,039 --> 00:30:53,839 know, she again, she performed very well and for a variety of reasons, 397 00:30:53,920 --> 00:31:00,279 including that October seventh foreign policy element. So I think that it's kind 398 00:31:00,279 --> 00:31:04,319 of in that regard, it's served its purpose, and then you know, 399 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,920 I think it's also allowed a lot of those donors to kind of watch how 400 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,880 somebody does on you know, kind of under the bright lights, if you 401 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,599 will. And so I think that again, coming out of New Hampshire in 402 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:21,799 particular, if one or the other of the answers or Haley has momentum coming 403 00:31:21,839 --> 00:31:26,799 out of Iowa, especially out of New Hampshire, you will see an overwhelming 404 00:31:26,839 --> 00:31:32,960 amount of money going to that person. Like literally, in one week they'll 405 00:31:33,039 --> 00:31:37,759 raise at least fifty million dollars, very possibly one hundred million dollars. I 406 00:31:37,799 --> 00:31:41,680 hadn't thought about that in those terms, because it does. It harkens back 407 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,240 to the what happened after the Iowa caucus and the Democratic primary in twenty twenty. 408 00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:49,480 They're all sort of panicked and tried to consolidate in order to avoid a 409 00:31:49,519 --> 00:31:56,039 Bernie surprise against Biden. And a lot of that is just you can suddenly 410 00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,240 reallocate resources to one person, and that can make a really big difference if 411 00:32:00,279 --> 00:32:04,839 all of those donors who were really easy to undercut Trump are really eager to 412 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,920 undercut Trump, and that they were looking at the santis for a while. 413 00:32:07,519 --> 00:32:12,200 They might then say, this guy's got momentum. Again. Let's you know, 414 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:19,160 blast New Hampshire in South Carolina, and you would say that that at 415 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:23,839 the moment, Nikki probably has what will even say, as of a week 416 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:29,839 ago, you would say Hayley probably had a sizable momentum advantage. You know, 417 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:34,079 some of her recent comments in New Hampshire actually at least you know, 418 00:32:34,279 --> 00:32:37,440 kind of forced or encouraged some people to kind of tap the brakes a little 419 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:42,720 bit. So you wouldn't say that she's lost complete momentum, but she definitely 420 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,839 has has subsided somewhat on momentum. So when you're kind of doing just that 421 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:51,039 pure analysis and you're trying to think, what are all of the major major 422 00:32:51,119 --> 00:32:53,200 donors, I mean people that are going to put ten million dollars into super 423 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:58,599 packs and then Ken Griffin someone like that, Yeah, yeah, so there's 424 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,400 you know, there's still a probably a dozen to fifteen of those that are 425 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:07,039 kind of out there that are again either either really really don't like President Trump 426 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:13,359 or at least have some strategic pause about him. And so there is major 427 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,319 money that's still kind of on the sidelines. And then you know, the 428 00:33:16,359 --> 00:33:20,359 other piece is what are all of these what are the major consultants, the 429 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,160 media consultants, the pollsters for those three major campaigns, what are they trying 430 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,920 to do trying to how are they evaluating these things? And so that what 431 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,480 I'm trying to do is kind of break down a little bit what the analysis 432 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:36,359 looks like. All of them have they kind of wait different variables slightly differently. 433 00:33:37,119 --> 00:33:38,880 But Trump is trying to get as close to fifty or over fifty as 434 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:44,240 possible so we can try to put all this stuff to bed. DeSantis is 435 00:33:44,279 --> 00:33:46,759 just trying to at this point to kind of finish second because he's not going 436 00:33:46,839 --> 00:33:51,400 to do as well in New Hampshire. Hayley is trying to see if she 437 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,880 could barely beat DeSantis to try to make the argument a week later when she 438 00:33:54,960 --> 00:34:00,799 does be Dysantis almost almost certainly in New Hampshire, that she's the alternative. 439 00:34:00,359 --> 00:34:05,279 You know, So there's there's almost three different games being played in the same 440 00:34:05,319 --> 00:34:08,719 game, so to speak. Yeah, absolutely, I have a couple of 441 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,440 big picture questions, and I know, Tim, you're super busy right now 442 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,719 and you're being very generous your time because we had I had some tech difficulties 443 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:20,480 going into it. One question would be Axios led its morning newsletter today. 444 00:34:20,559 --> 00:34:23,239 You probably saw this with a piece on how Trump has gotten a lot of 445 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,920 support from the pulpit in Iowa, and that, you know, brings that 446 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,880 sort of big picture question up. Why a lot of people in the media 447 00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:36,239 have never been able to figure out evangelical support for Donald Trump. You know, 448 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,159 they went into swear words and all of that, and some people have 449 00:34:39,199 --> 00:34:43,239 done some interesting reporting on this for years now, literally, But in the 450 00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,079 twenty twenty four cycle, there was this alternative Dysantis. We were just kind 451 00:34:46,079 --> 00:34:50,239 of talking about why some donors were interested in a Dysantis or a Haley when 452 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,000 it came to know, maybe undercutting President Trump. But again, as somebody 453 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:58,000 who knows these voters very well and has been in Iowa has seen what's happening, 454 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:05,440 Why is it that so many voters decided to even with these different alternatives, 455 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,039 and especially with a Dissanta, somebody who seemed to be on the same 456 00:35:07,039 --> 00:35:12,119 page as Donald Trump on so many different things. What is it that's keeping 457 00:35:12,519 --> 00:35:15,159 so many of these voters, you know, still sticking to Donald Trump certainly, 458 00:35:15,199 --> 00:35:20,679 the polling showed that the law fair. It's a pretty convincing theory as 459 00:35:20,679 --> 00:35:22,159 to why so many people are sticking with Trump. But Tim, you know 460 00:35:22,199 --> 00:35:25,840 this better than anyone. What's going on in Iowa? There? Yeah, 461 00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:30,320 So there actually have been a couple of little polls run to this effect, 462 00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:36,960 trying to kind of a mine the evangelical or faith based Iowa voters mentality here. 463 00:35:37,559 --> 00:35:40,920 I think that that there, you know, again earlier in this cycle, 464 00:35:42,039 --> 00:35:46,239 the faith based voters across the country, including in Iowa, they vote 465 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:51,320 based on kind of two basic kind of rubrics. First of all, does 466 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,760 this person share my values and share my values? As in a kind of 467 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,280 stereotypical poll most people think, you know, does does does Donald Trump share 468 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:07,119 my values? Means does he believe what I believe? It's more kind of 469 00:36:07,199 --> 00:36:09,719 like will he operate? You know, will he legislate? Or will he 470 00:36:10,199 --> 00:36:16,280 you know, do do do the policies that I want done? And and 471 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:22,159 then so like the the assumption normally is you know that the candidate that believes 472 00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:28,480 what I believe will do what the same policy that we went done. The 473 00:36:28,519 --> 00:36:35,239 interesting thing about Trump having one term obviously in office, is it's a an 474 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,280 unusually transactional. It's always somewhat transactional, but it's like unusually transactional with Donald 475 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:43,599 Trump that basically most evangelicals are like, you know, I mean, I 476 00:36:43,599 --> 00:36:46,480 hope on a personal level that he shares my values, but I'm completely convinced 477 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:51,559 that he will do these values because he didn't just kind of like deliver on 478 00:36:51,679 --> 00:36:54,079 some of them or or you know, he promised to ten and he delivered 479 00:36:54,079 --> 00:36:59,599 a six on that scale for you know, for various things he did overwhelming 480 00:37:00,639 --> 00:37:06,039 accomplished overwhelming victories on the top four or five six, you know, certainly 481 00:37:06,079 --> 00:37:08,199 Supreme Court, and you know, things related to abortion and the pro life 482 00:37:08,599 --> 00:37:14,719 movement, also around family, definitely around Israel, historic kind of wins or 483 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:19,159 victories to that effect that of some of them, not all that some of 484 00:37:19,199 --> 00:37:22,159 those have been walked back by this this Biden administration. So anyways, you 485 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:28,920 have this share my values. But then the other piece that is lost us 486 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,280 I still think is lost by a lot of people kind of observing through the 487 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:38,840 window here is they want somebody who will fight, and so they they I 488 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:43,719 think that these voters do believe that Nikki Haley is a fighter, and they 489 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:47,679 do believe that DeSantis is a fighter, but they know categorically that Donald Trump 490 00:37:49,119 --> 00:37:52,519 if there has ever ever been a fighter in the history death. So it's 491 00:37:52,599 --> 00:37:58,800 kind of like I'm almost positive on these two other two other candidates, you 492 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,360 know, and they may even share my values more, but I know that 493 00:38:01,519 --> 00:38:07,119 I'm one hundred percent going to be getting the fighter and everybody knows that going 494 00:38:07,159 --> 00:38:15,239 into in order to kind of walk back some of the the Biden administrations or 495 00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:19,960 just kind of the cultural things that we're dealing with still in the United States, 496 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,880 I wilting lily or kind of a typical politician with with with political speak, 497 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:31,679 is not going to is more likely to shrink back once they actually are 498 00:38:31,679 --> 00:38:35,400 in Washington, d c. In that White House, with the media, 499 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,199 with you know, certainly international pressure at this point, et cetera. And 500 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:44,400 so it's the shares my values element or that kind of will he do the 501 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,280 policies that I want? But then the fighter piece has become as much or 502 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:52,440 frankly, I would argue, even more of a variable in that equation than 503 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:58,079 it ever was before. So I think that that that DeSantis and and they 504 00:38:58,119 --> 00:39:01,800 kind of are almost positi But there is no doubt with Trump that you're going 505 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,480 to get that fighter in the in the White House. Yeah, and that 506 00:39:06,519 --> 00:39:08,239 makes sense with the lawfare theory too, because all that does is highlight that 507 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:13,679 Trump is continuing to fight against the powers that are trying to undermine him. 508 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,719 Yeah, that's exactly right. So yet again, some people, you know, 509 00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,880 on the on the political left, thought that this would undermine him. 510 00:39:20,639 --> 00:39:23,159 Not only does it make him sympathetic more sympathetic, and it looks like the 511 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:29,400 quote unquote system is out to get him, but it also kind of if 512 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,760 there ever could have been a question about that, that sort of fighter element. 513 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,360 I mean, he's proving it. He's fighting, you know, in 514 00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,440 some ways for his his maybe not literal life, but at least his freedom 515 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:45,719 and definitely his his life's work, if you will. On the business side, 516 00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:51,559 he's fighting that on four different fronts personally, while also fighting politically, 517 00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,639 so fighting within his party to then fight against, you know, the opposite 518 00:39:55,639 --> 00:40:01,440 party. So this guy's fighting, you know, I mean, I don't 519 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:05,880 even know he can with every breath, you run out of fingers and toes 520 00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,639 to count the fights that he's fighting at any given moment. And people are 521 00:40:09,679 --> 00:40:15,000 like, the guy's worth whatever, how much money he's worth, he's however 522 00:40:15,039 --> 00:40:19,280 old he is, you know, wouldn't he just ride off into the sunset 523 00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:23,639 at a certain point. And they're like, whatever his motive is, you 524 00:40:23,679 --> 00:40:28,880 know, maybe it's a personal vendetta, maybe it's fighting for you know, 525 00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:35,159 certain values for the country at large. Whatever the case, that guy is 526 00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:38,480 on a mission, and we want that. We don't want somebody that just 527 00:40:38,519 --> 00:40:44,199 wants a position so that you know, that can kind of be part of 528 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:49,639 part of their their legacy or whatever. Of one more question, Tim, 529 00:40:49,679 --> 00:40:52,519 and it's because the economy is in you know, not a great place for 530 00:40:52,559 --> 00:40:55,519 so many people. If you're invested in the stock market, maybe, but 531 00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:00,920 for so many average Americans that are seeing still crazy high prices at the grocery 532 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:05,360 store, in some cases at the gas pump, depending on where you are, 533 00:41:05,159 --> 00:41:07,679 we're kind of experiencing an uneven economy. And I imagine a lot of 534 00:41:07,679 --> 00:41:12,920 those books are in Iowa. So we talked about October seventh. We talked 535 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:17,920 about some of these really very significant and serious cultural issues. When people head 536 00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:24,679 to the caucus on Monday night tonight, how heavily or how are they thinking 537 00:41:24,679 --> 00:41:30,599 about the interplay between those cultural issues, those foreign policy issues, and frankly 538 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:36,280 just that sort of survival mentality in their pocketbooks and their bank accounts in the 539 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,760 Biden administration. Yeah, that's a fantastic question, which is again one of 540 00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:44,519 the reasons why we fight so hard to make sure that i Alway stays in 541 00:41:44,519 --> 00:41:49,599 that kind of pole position that it has enjoyed now now for over fifty years, 542 00:41:49,639 --> 00:41:53,679 because not only I mean there are kind of worldview ideological reasons for it, 543 00:41:54,679 --> 00:42:00,679 but at its core, it is flyover country. It's the part of 544 00:42:00,679 --> 00:42:06,199 the country that politicians, i mean literally most politicians and media like don't want 545 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,440 to go to Iowa. It's it's literally like, can I please, you 546 00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,320 know, like, I'll spend as little time as I have to there, 547 00:42:14,599 --> 00:42:16,559 I want to, you know, and don't make me interact with any of 548 00:42:16,559 --> 00:42:22,159 the people just you know, they don't know about callers. Yes, I'll 549 00:42:22,199 --> 00:42:23,719 go backstage, I'll go out and I'll make the speech, I'll go back 550 00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,880 to sage, I'll go back to the car, I'll go back to the 551 00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:30,639 Airborne give me and But but the reality is, I mean, these are 552 00:42:30,679 --> 00:42:32,599 just they're just normal people. They're good, decent people. You know, 553 00:42:32,639 --> 00:42:37,679 they're family people, they're hardworking people, they just they don't all expect to 554 00:42:37,679 --> 00:42:40,559 be billionaires. They just want kind of you know, they want life to 555 00:42:40,559 --> 00:42:44,360 be a little bit easier than it is. And they definitely want to give 556 00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,559 a better life and a better country for that matter, to their kids than 557 00:42:46,599 --> 00:42:51,480 they have themselves, because they feel like that they got a little bit of 558 00:42:51,519 --> 00:42:55,360 a better life for the most part than their parents have. So, you 559 00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,159 know, I think that that that calculus that you just talked about, you 560 00:42:59,199 --> 00:43:01,320 know, gas prices, especially when you're talking about you know, in agricultural 561 00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:07,320 areas where so many things are contingent on on gas prices. It's it's a 562 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:12,639 huge part. It's almost uh, I do think that that you know, 563 00:43:12,639 --> 00:43:15,880 in a place like I where are very cognizant of of of gas prices, 564 00:43:16,159 --> 00:43:22,360 but a lot of places, you know, inflation and things like gas prices 565 00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:27,079 are almost kind of baked in. They're almost like, uh, you know 566 00:43:27,559 --> 00:43:32,199 that they're they're kind of implied or you know, canoded almost more than even 567 00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:37,559 even stated, you know, and and so it's it's a huge part of 568 00:43:37,639 --> 00:43:45,280 kind of everyday average Americans calculations, you know, for for normal expenses down 569 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:46,880 to where you know, if they're able to take a vacation or you know, 570 00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,800 where they going to go to Florida? Are they just going to go 571 00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:53,400 to like South Dakota or something? You know, so you know, all 572 00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:57,840 all of these kinds of things, I mean, saving for college, just 573 00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:01,000 you know, on down the down the line, these kinds of things absolutely 574 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:08,239 factor in. And I think it's I want people like that making these decisions. 575 00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:15,800 I don't necessarily want bankers and you know, actuaries doing statistical analysis on 576 00:44:15,119 --> 00:44:20,480 who should be the next president. I just want like policies that you know, 577 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:22,760 of the three hundred and thirty or so million of US in America, 578 00:44:23,079 --> 00:44:27,880 probably three hundred and twenty million of US, you know, are making decisions 579 00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:32,360 based on sort of pretty pretty predicate issues like you know, the cost of 580 00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:37,320 eggs and the cost of school, and you know, can I can I 581 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,800 just maybe one or two times a week? Can we go out to eat? 582 00:44:42,079 --> 00:44:46,400 You know, it's it's it's not necessarily the super high minded kind of 583 00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:54,519 clandestine policy analysis that you know sometimes think tanks and universities can tuggle to. 584 00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,480 Well, tim We're lucky to have gotten a slice of your time in this 585 00:44:59,559 --> 00:45:04,639 extremely busy season for you. Timothy Head is the executive director of at the 586 00:45:04,679 --> 00:45:07,320 Faith and Freedom Coalition. Thank you so much, Tim for coming back on 587 00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:12,360 the show. It's always a treat to be with you, and I hope 588 00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,360 that you're able to stay warm and stay engaged. And there's plenty more to 589 00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,440 talk about, so hopefully we'll catch you a little bit farther down the road 590 00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,440 here. Yes, absolutely, absolutely, well, you've been listening to another 591 00:45:22,519 --> 00:45:25,880 edition of The Federalist or radio hour. I'm I'm Alisashinski, culture editor here 592 00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:29,840 at The Federalist. We'll be back soon with more. Until then, the 593 00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:45,559 lovers of freedom and anxious for the Fray