We're back with another edition of The Federalist or Radio Hour. I'm Emily Dashinsky,
culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the
show at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on exit FDR ls
T. Make sure to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts, and of course
to the premium version of our website as well. Today, if you follow
politics closely, is something of a holiday. It is the Iowa Caucus Day,
and we are joined by Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith and
Freedom Coalition once again, who knows all about Iowa, Who's heading into a
blizzard pretty soon. Timothy, thanks for joining us on the show. Well,
thank you so much for being here and always great to be with you.
This is like you said this for you for it's kind of like super
well Sunday or something for a lot of extremely politically engaged people, you know,
And so it's it's both exciting and also kind of a I don't know,
like a like a fulcrum. You know, you feel like you're like
crossing over officially into presidential election season once, once this thing actually gets gets
kicked off, you know. I always love when things not just holidays or
whatever. But when things are the idealized versions of themselves, and it looks
like we're recording this on Friday and it's going to run on Monday, on
Iowa Caucus Day, it looks like the Iowa Caucus is going to be the
sort of idealized version of the Iowa Caucus. Because blizzards have descended upon Iowa,
the candidates are making their last ditch efforts to spread their word to me
the I want to ask you just a little bit about the significance of Iowa
because people are actually debating that, you know, more in more detail than
they have in years past, this year, with some conversations about Iowa's role
going forward. But you know Iowa, Well, what is the sort of
significance that it plays at least this cycle twenty twenty four? What rule will
Iowa have in this primary? Well, I think part of the reason why
it's why it's being debated a little more, a little more kind of vehemently,
is because listen, I mean, over the last basically twelve to sixteen
years, the Democrats have performed worse and worse in Iowa, and so really
in twenty twenty I would say the conversation became heated in Democrat circles. They
basically said, you know, from their perspective, why are we having all
of these conversations in a part of the country, in a state specifically that
is that's not a majority minority, And so they actually moved there first.
In the nation, they're kind of doing this weird hybrid where they're technically having
an election or caucuses, but they don't actually count until later, and they're
really moving the first one that quote unquote counts as now Nevada and are in
South Carolina. They've kind of like re reoriented the Democrat primary process to exclude
Iowa, but frankly, in the very same reasons why they want to exclude
Iowa or the frankly probably the main reasons why we get Faith in Freedom coalition
want to continue to have Iowa. Be that that kind of pole position,
if you will. So, you know, most of us don't really think
a lot about this, but the fact that we have the first primary,
which is a caucus in Iowa mid January, then the second, you know,
we go to New Hampshire. The third about two and a half weeks
after New Hampshire comes Nevada, so we go out to the west coast,
and then the fourth of those so called carve out states goes to South Carolina
for us and Freedom's you know, as your listeners might might know, we
work on the way we like to say is we work on public policy from
a biblical worldview within a constitutional framework. And so that means that we want
voters that vote from a biblical worldview and want a constitutional framework to be not
only heard in that in that process, but even you know, arguably preferred
in that in that process. And so for us, there's the state of
Iowa. On the Republican side, you can actually register three different ways Republican,
Democrat, or independent in Iowan. It's almost exactly a third to third
to third of those. But of the registered Republicans in Iowa basically just shied
seventy percent of those sixty seven sixty eight percent of those identify as faith based
voters either usually evangelical or Catholic voters in Iowa. So you know, so
basically, you know, two out of three, a little over two out
of three voters that are going to be going to caucuses this this coming week
are are coming from a kind of a basically a biblical constitutional perspective when it
comes to policies and their candidates. And then we actually toggle later on to
late February in South Carolina, it's almost the exact same number. It's actually
right at seventy percent in South Carolina. I also identify as faith based voters.
And so a little bit two out of three. That's a lot of
work on the ground for you in the last I'm sure the last year plus.
But yeah, well you know that's that's you know, as a as
an an organization that kind of works perennially, perpetually, you know, are
kind of quoter fight framing for these kinds of issues for us around faith and
Freedom is that we have a special, a special term for the day after
elections at Faith and Fried and Coalition. They're just called Wednesdays that you know,
once everybody else kind of checks out and goes back to soccer practice,
work and stuff. After a presidential election or even after a primary here,
we just kind of go we we just flip the calendar and go right back
to work. So so we're working with these voters constantly, literally on a
on a year round basis. And uh, and so from a structural standpoint,
the fact that presidential would be presidential candidates have to sort of orient their
their message and their policies for that matter, to these kinds of voters.
And actually Nevada has a as a surprisingly high number of evangelical and Catholic voters
as well, so and and for that matter, a lot of Latter Day
Saint voters in addition, so again a lot of conservative faith based voters in
Nevada. So three of the first four have extremely large percentages in the Republican
primary or caucus. Uh that are that are again that kind of religious conservative
perspective, and so we we like that. And then of course, right
after we we do the South Carolina votes, and then we go to Super
Tuesday fifteen states, of which you'd probably say nine or ten of those are
kind of you know, either southern, Southeastern, or kind of midwestern.
So yet again, so you know, part of the reason why the Democrats
don't necessarily emphasize this kind of message or these kind of policies is because they've
kind of built the primaries to sort of carve out this constituency. There are
ideological reasons, for sure, but you know, so the ideological reasons are
part of the reason why they've moved away from Iowa and moved to Nomada.
So anyway, that's you know, kind of a below the hood, if
you will. There actually are some kind of inter nicing fights, if you
mean, we'll put it in air quotes, but we'll just call them lively
debates. Maybe there are some people that argue that Iowa shouldn't be first or
early in South Carolina shouldn't be first or early. But but you know,
again and kind of off the off season. Faith and Freedom is one of
the main voices that actually pushes pretty hard within the RNC to make sure that
this sequence remains the same. We think that it's actually a really really big
deal. The other piece that the last thing I'll say is also it's a
very grassroots oriented state. So you you know, just about three million,
just over three million residents or citizens in Iowa, roughly six hundred and fifty
to seven hundred thousand of them live in Des Moines. So basically, you
know, you still have two thirds of the of the state that do not
live in the main metropolitan area. So it's a lot of them very rural.
As people would guess, it's you know, pretty agriculture, agricultural and
so we think that it brings candidates closer to actual voters. You can't just
buy a bunch of you know, if you run and if Florida was first
in the nation, it would completely change the orientation of politics for the Republican
Party. If you did that, like three consecutive presidential cycles, basically all
the money would buy TV's TV ads and nobody would actually ever do live events
anymore, which is, if you think about it, basically exactly what Democrats
have done. Has there been anything that surprised you. We talked about this
a little bit last time, but you know, there are a lot of
cliches and stereotypes when it comes to voters of faith. That two thirds number
is remarkable. Has there been any takeaways you've had talking to voters and some
of these coalitions on the ground their reactions to the candidates. Was there anything
that maybe caught you off guard or took you by surprise as you've been working
for months and months and months now on this group of voters in Iowa,
well in Iowa and in South Carolina, I'd say that one of the interesting
things in Iowa that really I would voters these caucus goers. I expect we'll
probably see close to two hundred thousand that'll attend in these caucuses. And they
take this vetting role very very seriously. And so you know, I've literally
had like I mean, ten or twelve individual voters tell me that they don't
make up their mind until they personally met a candidate at least four times.
One lady said, I will not vote for somebody. Like to think about
how many presidential candidates you met in your life personally this this lady basically said
I will not do it. I will not vote for somebody that I'm not
personally met four times or more. One day, we said I won't do
it until I've sat in a room with them, like have a conversation with
them, not even like at a ropeline or whatever. So God bless Iowa.
Oh my goodness. These people are engaged with that kind of grassroots engagement.
And then I mean, they know these people's social Security numbers. It's
it's not just kind of like you know, they flipped on the they watched
the TV TV and on Saturday before or you know they you know, follow
a Twitter account or something like that. That is not how this goes in
Iowa. So I'll say that to say, one of the really interesting things
that's maybe probably not historically I'm literally unprecedented, but unusual, is we have,
you know, Trump, who obviously was the president in twenty in the
twenty twenty cycles, so he literally was an incumbent, and then he obviously
loses, and so you might think that the sort of entropy political entropy of
Iowa would say so everybody will just go back to the quote unquote incumbent,
And I would say that there definitely are many, many loyalists and huge fans
of Trump in Iowa, but a huge swath. I mean, I would
say well over half of the voters that I've interacted with, even though they
probably are favorable towards Trump, they kind of like went back to the starting
line and said, we're going to reevaluate this entire thing from scratch, and
certainly his his his record goes into play there. But they didn't just sort
of give an automatic inclination towards Trump that they very much wanted to vet DeSantis,
wanted to vet Haley, wanted to vet Chris Christie. I mean,
Christy's been a part of the process before in Iowa. But Ramaswami wanted to
vet vet him, you know, pretty pretty intimately there. So it's actually
a really interesting process just to see people want to make sure that they kind
of like did the they worked out the entire math equation from the from the
beginning and didn't just sort of rely on you know, kind of passed immedia
past history, you know, in some ways. Vivik Ramaswami we had him
on this podcast not too long ago, speaks a language that's really familiar to
faith based voters, whether they're evangelical Christians or more orthodox Catholics. But his
own faith is not the typical story of somebody who does speak that language so
fluently. I wanted to ask him a little bit about how he's been received
by the voters that you're so familiar with in Iowa. The cycle. Yeah.
So, so we as an organization did two events. We did an
event in April and in one portion of Des Moines and had had him and
and at that time there were there were ten declared candidates, had actually all
ten show up to that uh. And then nationally we did our own event,
our national event in Washington, d C. In late June, and
then once again. We'd actually did another event downtown Des Moines in mid September,
and the Veik went to all four all three of those events, two
in two in Iowa itself and then one in d C. And he's actually
done other events elsewhere with us. But he personally showed up, as my
point, and and kind of lock people in the in the eyes and let
them do the same. And and I mean, honestly, he's uh you
probably saw when you interacted with him, but he's a very compelling public speaker,
but also just very engaging, you know, interpersonally. You know,
wife both are very sort of affable, likable people. And uh, and
I think that that's that's one of the ways I think that you know,
back to that kind of grassroots you know, there's a there's a couple of
pizza places there in Iowa that they are sort of famous or infamous for for,
and so a lot of people like to, like, you know,
sit down in those piece of parlors and hear people. And he does very
well in that in that kind of setting. So what he's saying is is
definitely the policies themselves resonate, but really just his personality and his own personal
story also resonate with people, and and I don't I've never actually personally interacted
with people that that, you know, the fact that he is not an
evangelical or Catholic that was not like automatically counted against him. It was new.
I mean, most of those people haven't really interacted much either. Maybe
some of them have never met a Hindu period that certainly have never had a
presidential candidate or a possibilit possible presidential candidate who was a Hindu. So they
just wanted to kind of sort of play that out a little bit. What
does that look like, What does it look like personally? What is that
you know, are there other implications for public policy that we haven't really thought
about before, kind of rehearsed those those you know, kind of logic exercises
out and and you know, honestly, you would probably say some of his
his public policy as it relates, for instance, to Israel, might be
a decent sort of illustration of that that that there are national security elements to
to most Christian politicians calculus on public policy as it relates to Israel. But
they're also for a lot of those those Christian policy makers there's a there's a
certain kind of biblical element to that as well, either historical biblical or or
you know, in some settings, some theologies you know, have significant kind
of future theological implications that that relate to Israel. So there is kind of
this theological twist even though you're making foreign policy and clearly, you know,
you would say that Ramaswami has more of an isolationist approach as it relates both
to Israel and others. So that's an example of questions that a lot of
people in Iowa will ask that question and sort of you know, work that
worked that answer out in ways that people that are just watching TV, you
know, are not necessarily going to sort of work their way through that problem.
You know, that was one of the biggest questions I had for you,
timd because I think the last time we talked was before the actually seventh
attacks, and I imagine that's had a real influence on the way candidates have
approached especially the issue of Israel obviously, but foreign policy in general. On
the campaign trail over the last couple of months, can you talk to us
a little bit about how especially since you know there have been stories on like
Glenn Greenwold wrote a story about the divide between Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carls and
they sort of high level disputes that are happening in the conservative discourse. Have
those trickled into the campaign trail in Iowa? What is that done basically to
the Iowa caucuses? If it has had much of an effect, well,
I think it probably has had a direct effect. But you know, one
of the interesting things you know about it, it certainly relates to I would
also I think it affects New Hampshire as well, that you know, their
public policy considerations, and certainly you know a lot of people watched, I
forget the ultimate number of debates, but watched you know, five or six
different debates and different iterations and and some of it you're kind of listening,
you know, just to see on the the the public policy positions themselves.
But once you watched six debates, there's probably not a lot of novelty to
the policy positions, but you're almost waiting to see, you know, some
of it's the personality, some of it's you know, can people avoid major
gaffs or faux pause for you know, six consecutive debates? You know,
things of that nature. And so what I'm saying is there's a certain element
of kind of part of the reason why Iowa I think breaks so late is
because momentum is very much a very real currency, if you will, political
currency. For Frankly, as somebody that's you know, run run campaigns,
I would actually argue that it's it's the case in every single race. But
but you definitely see a play out in a in a race like this high
level race, is momentum is a huge, huge element. And and you
would say that Frankly, probably the October seventh event, as tragic as it
was, is very much kind of in the wheelhouse, the policy wheelhouse of
of Nikki Hayley. And so you would you would argue that I would say,
it's actually pretty it's almost linear, like you could chart on a on
a graph. You know that her the momiment momentum that she started to pick
up on the presidential level is very much correlates on the calendar to you know,
from October the eighth, she starts speaking very very forcefully not only before
Israel but also against Hamas and other kind of proxies of Iran, and that
clearly resonated with many many people. But then you'd also possibly track that there's
you knows, there's become a bit of fatigue. It's not you wouldn't say
that the waves has eliminated, has has gone by the wayside, but it's
it's potentially crested on public opinion, and you know, some people are kind
of saying, you know, exactly how far should we not only go in
Israel, but maybe also in Ukraine, and and so you know, she's
probably slightly subsided. So she had you know, my point is that she's
got a the the momentum that she kind of caught from the outrage immediately following
the October seventh attacks, has has has very well, it has very closely
kind of tracked public sentiment the ire against Hamas and in Iran, and then
also a little bit of the fatigue around that sub that subject. And so
she's trying to kind of find another another lease on on that momentum, if
you will, you know, as as we're coming down the home stretch,
certainly for for Iwaen is she can perform well in in i well, there's
no you know, straight number to that, but but if she does as
well or better than expect and then the expectations there will be momentum coming for
her coming out of Iowa and going into New Hampshire, which is really where
she's put most all but most of her eggs are actually in the the New
Hampshire basket, so to speak, at this point, and you know,
so it's there, you very much have to kind of you know, in
sports, it's a little bit like playing the World Series, like you want
to win the first game, but but you're trying to win, you know,
the best of seven, and so the second game strategy is as important
as the first game, and a lot of people just played for the first
game. Just for Iowa, she and her campaign have very much scripted,
at least for the first four you know, we'd say two and a half
of the first four states are her strategy more so than just sort of all
the cards on the table for Iowa. Are you a Braves fan, Tim
I am. I'm an Atlanta Braves fan. I do live in Atlanta.
So that was part of my voter registration ticket. Actually here was swearing allegiance
to the Braves. You said Atlanta Braves. I was going to mention we
can at least agree on the braves. I have a Milwaukee Braves hat,
an old Milwaukee Braves hat. Those were cool. It was a it was
a cool The hats are really cool. That is so off topic though,
although I imagine maybe a way to connect to this that when you're in Iowa
you probably eat culvers from time to time. Well indeed I do, and
I was able to when Culver has expanded into Georgia a couple of years ago.
They were to tell people, uh, you know, get some get
some cheese, curds and culverts. It's a Western thing. Southerners were like,
what is this. You've had all yeah, you had all that Iowa
experience. Well. Actually, one thing that Vek mentioned when he was on
Federalist Radio are not too long ago, is that he thinks he wasn't really
bullish about winning. He thinks so that there will be some surprises in the
outcome of the caucus versus the polling, that you know, the polling might
not be capturing the state of affairs as accurately as some people think that it
is. So I want to get your take on Tim on this. Tim,
you know, do you feel like the polling and Iowa has been pretty
good or are you also maybe expecting some potentially significant surprises. Yeah. So
again this is uh, you know, I hate to say, one of
the reasons why I like being with you, Emily is because we're able to
sort of unpack, you know, some of this stuff that that you know,
in other setting, we have to be a little more quippy with.
But so the difference between a caucus and a primary matters in that, you
know, So for for your listeners at caucus, basically instead of you know,
Tim or Emily showing up, we show our id. We walk in
the front door, you know, they say, go to that that uh,
you know polling place over there. You're there for three minutes, you
go through the whole exercise, and then you go out the you go out
the door you came in. What happens in a in a caucus is everybody
shows up. So if if we're in a certain precinct, our our precinct
meets at whatever the local middle school or the basement of this nearby church or
you know, some some public meeting area. And uh, the largest caucuses
in in Iowa and really around des moin area will have literally like eight hundred
people in a caucus. They meet in all like a gymnasium. It looks
like a basketball a basketball game, and they they actually like they at a
certain point they closed the door so you can show up early, but they
closed the doors and then everybody is allowed to come and speak on behalf of
their preferred candidate, and frankly, for some of these really large ones,
the actual candidate will show up him or herself. And so I've actually worked
I volunteer at these things just administratively, just to kind of help, you
know, open the doors and make sure that elderly people can get in and
this kind of stuff. And I've I mean the last one that I was
or the one in twenty sixteen, there were six different presidential candidates that came
into the caucus room that I was in that gave their pitch. And so
so either the caucus members or the candidates or other surrogates come into these caucus
rooms give their pitch, and then once everybody's kind of said their piece,
then they vote all on them just a piece of paper. So what I'm
saying with all this is a kind of best practice or gold plated campaign in
Iowa is not really at most it's fifty percent kind of marketing, you know,
TV ads and stuff. There's a huge ground game organizational element to this
that I would say Trump is actually done very well with, and I would
also just say DeSantis has done very well with. Frankly, I would say
Haley's Haley's team. Again, they're more focused in New Hampshire, so their
ground game and I was probably not quite as strong. What that means is,
I think it's entirely possible that DeSantis kind of overperforms recent polling because he
and their team have like five hundred caucus leaders that are going to each of
their respective caucuses and like organizing inviting people their neighbor, Hey, don't stay
home tonight even though it's a blizzard. So it's kind of like measures not
only the organizational kind of power of the campaign, but it also measures like
the dedication the fervor of each of the voters. So if I just kind
of like candidate X and it's a blizzard, I may not go. If
I really really love candidate X, then I'm still going. And so all
of that. You know, again that sounds a little bit uh too granular,
but but I would say there's a I would say there's a good chance
that again, the Dysantas kind of slightly overperform some of the polling. And
and look, I mean this is there, They're pulling exactly eagle equal right
now DeSantis and Haley. And that if if DeSantis does well and Haley does
not do quite as well, that absolutely could have an impact on New Hampshire.
And and if New Hampshire doesn't go well for DeSantis, there's a good
chance in New Hampshire may not that Dysantis may not make it to South Carolina,
you know. So so again kind of that that multi game approach to
the World Series. Having a ground game in Iowa, you can outperform hence
beat expectations, which then can trans transition you into the week later in New
Hampshire. Then you can fund raise. If you outperform in New Hampshire,
you have about three weeks to really fundraise strongly going into South Carolina. And
so so yes, I actually think that that Trump probably will be about on
par with what what you would expect. But I wouldn't be surprised if Hailey
slightly underperforms in the Caucuses, and I wouldn't be surprised if if DeSantis slightly
overperforms their their recent polls. The last thing I'll say is the Des Moines
Register is really probably the quote unquote gold standard of polling that everybody else is
kind of doing. You know, they're trying to figure out how I Wan's
you know, the turnout model is sort of the secret sauce to that thing.
And there's one particular polar that does does her polling for de Win Register
that that knows that like the back of her hand, and everybody else is
still trying to kind of read the fine prints. So watched the Des Moin
Register polling and and then the the campaign infrastructure truly does make a big difference
there. Do you think the debates have had a significant impact on the sort
of shifts in I mean, i was always been a different state than what
was happening in New Hampshire, as some similarities between what was happening in South
Carolina. As you're actually on the ground talking to grassroots folks, talking to
you the caucusgoers who aren't your average Republican primary voters, because if you're involved
in the Iowa caucus, it's a different it's a different tradition, it's a
different level of engagement. Do you feel like the debates have made a big
difference to those voters. In short, I would say generally yes. Again,
I think among other things, well, I mean, first you kind
of have to start with the premise, of course Trump does not participate in
any of the debates, and which also kind of tracks essentially with the nature
of this primary, which is essentially everybody's been competing for who's going to be
the quote unquote alternative to Don't Trump. And so the reason why you have
to watch, like how does Trump do? Is if if if Trump starts
to really exceed fifty percent in multiple states, then it doesn't matter who the
alternative is. But if Trump still is kind of hovering forty four, forty
five, forty six percent, then whoever the last alternative is standing stands a
chance to become, you know, to get fifty to fifty one, fifty
two percent. And I think that that's essentially what the exercise has been in
the debates is who who can kind of be the last man or maybe last
woman standing in that debate to then you know, and frankly that's probably what
New Hampshire, what what Iowa, and definitely New Hampshire will will be the
final test is who will be that last person standing as the alternative and if
and so there's there's there's the pure voting element to that, and then there
also is the financial engagement, because there still are very significant dollars that are
kind of waiting on this sideline that just don't either personally don't like something about
Donald Trump or strategically don't think that he can win for you know, three
or four or five different reasons. So if you can be the last man
again or woman standing, if you have momentum coming out of New Hampshire and
especially coming out of South Carolina, if you do well coming out of South
Carolina, you've got a very short window that somebody really might be able to
raise seventy five million dollars in like two weeks time. So I think the
debates have successfully, in a sense kind of from their perspective, served to
kind of window the field down basically to DeSantis and Haley. I think most
people thought the Santis would be in it. I don't know that how many
people definitively would have put money on Haley being that other person. But you
know, she again, she performed very well and for a variety of reasons,
including that October seventh foreign policy element. So I think that it's kind
of in that regard, it's served its purpose, and then you know,
I think it's also allowed a lot of those donors to kind of watch how
somebody does on you know, kind of under the bright lights, if you
will. And so I think that again, coming out of New Hampshire in
particular, if one or the other of the answers or Haley has momentum coming
out of Iowa, especially out of New Hampshire, you will see an overwhelming
amount of money going to that person. Like literally, in one week they'll
raise at least fifty million dollars, very possibly one hundred million dollars. I
hadn't thought about that in those terms, because it does. It harkens back
to the what happened after the Iowa caucus and the Democratic primary in twenty twenty.
They're all sort of panicked and tried to consolidate in order to avoid a
Bernie surprise against Biden. And a lot of that is just you can suddenly
reallocate resources to one person, and that can make a really big difference if
all of those donors who were really easy to undercut Trump are really eager to
undercut Trump, and that they were looking at the santis for a while.
They might then say, this guy's got momentum. Again. Let's you know,
blast New Hampshire in South Carolina, and you would say that that at
the moment, Nikki probably has what will even say, as of a week
ago, you would say Hayley probably had a sizable momentum advantage. You know,
some of her recent comments in New Hampshire actually at least you know,
kind of forced or encouraged some people to kind of tap the brakes a little
bit. So you wouldn't say that she's lost complete momentum, but she definitely
has has subsided somewhat on momentum. So when you're kind of doing just that
pure analysis and you're trying to think, what are all of the major major
donors, I mean people that are going to put ten million dollars into super
packs and then Ken Griffin someone like that, Yeah, yeah, so there's
you know, there's still a probably a dozen to fifteen of those that are
kind of out there that are again either either really really don't like President Trump
or at least have some strategic pause about him. And so there is major
money that's still kind of on the sidelines. And then you know, the
other piece is what are all of these what are the major consultants, the
media consultants, the pollsters for those three major campaigns, what are they trying
to do trying to how are they evaluating these things? And so that what
I'm trying to do is kind of break down a little bit what the analysis
looks like. All of them have they kind of wait different variables slightly differently.
But Trump is trying to get as close to fifty or over fifty as
possible so we can try to put all this stuff to bed. DeSantis is
just trying to at this point to kind of finish second because he's not going
to do as well in New Hampshire. Hayley is trying to see if she
could barely beat DeSantis to try to make the argument a week later when she
does be Dysantis almost almost certainly in New Hampshire, that she's the alternative.
You know, So there's there's almost three different games being played in the same
game, so to speak. Yeah, absolutely, I have a couple of
big picture questions, and I know, Tim, you're super busy right now
and you're being very generous your time because we had I had some tech difficulties
going into it. One question would be Axios led its morning newsletter today.
You probably saw this with a piece on how Trump has gotten a lot of
support from the pulpit in Iowa, and that, you know, brings that
sort of big picture question up. Why a lot of people in the media
have never been able to figure out evangelical support for Donald Trump. You know,
they went into swear words and all of that, and some people have
done some interesting reporting on this for years now, literally, But in the
twenty twenty four cycle, there was this alternative Dysantis. We were just kind
of talking about why some donors were interested in a Dysantis or a Haley when
it came to know, maybe undercutting President Trump. But again, as somebody
who knows these voters very well and has been in Iowa has seen what's happening,
Why is it that so many voters decided to even with these different alternatives,
and especially with a Dissanta, somebody who seemed to be on the same
page as Donald Trump on so many different things. What is it that's keeping
so many of these voters, you know, still sticking to Donald Trump certainly,
the polling showed that the law fair. It's a pretty convincing theory as
to why so many people are sticking with Trump. But Tim, you know
this better than anyone. What's going on in Iowa? There? Yeah,
So there actually have been a couple of little polls run to this effect,
trying to kind of a mine the evangelical or faith based Iowa voters mentality here.
I think that that there, you know, again earlier in this cycle,
the faith based voters across the country, including in Iowa, they vote
based on kind of two basic kind of rubrics. First of all, does
this person share my values and share my values? As in a kind of
stereotypical poll most people think, you know, does does does Donald Trump share
my values? Means does he believe what I believe? It's more kind of
like will he operate? You know, will he legislate? Or will he
you know, do do do the policies that I want done? And and
then so like the the assumption normally is you know that the candidate that believes
what I believe will do what the same policy that we went done. The
interesting thing about Trump having one term obviously in office, is it's a an
unusually transactional. It's always somewhat transactional, but it's like unusually transactional with Donald
Trump that basically most evangelicals are like, you know, I mean, I
hope on a personal level that he shares my values, but I'm completely convinced
that he will do these values because he didn't just kind of like deliver on
some of them or or you know, he promised to ten and he delivered
a six on that scale for you know, for various things he did overwhelming
accomplished overwhelming victories on the top four or five six, you know, certainly
Supreme Court, and you know, things related to abortion and the pro life
movement, also around family, definitely around Israel, historic kind of wins or
victories to that effect that of some of them, not all that some of
those have been walked back by this this Biden administration. So anyways, you
have this share my values. But then the other piece that is lost us
I still think is lost by a lot of people kind of observing through the
window here is they want somebody who will fight, and so they they I
think that these voters do believe that Nikki Haley is a fighter, and they
do believe that DeSantis is a fighter, but they know categorically that Donald Trump
if there has ever ever been a fighter in the history death. So it's
kind of like I'm almost positive on these two other two other candidates, you
know, and they may even share my values more, but I know that
I'm one hundred percent going to be getting the fighter and everybody knows that going
into in order to kind of walk back some of the the Biden administrations or
just kind of the cultural things that we're dealing with still in the United States,
I wilting lily or kind of a typical politician with with with political speak,
is not going to is more likely to shrink back once they actually are
in Washington, d c. In that White House, with the media,
with you know, certainly international pressure at this point, et cetera. And
so it's the shares my values element or that kind of will he do the
policies that I want? But then the fighter piece has become as much or
frankly, I would argue, even more of a variable in that equation than
it ever was before. So I think that that that DeSantis and and they
kind of are almost positi But there is no doubt with Trump that you're going
to get that fighter in the in the White House. Yeah, and that
makes sense with the lawfare theory too, because all that does is highlight that
Trump is continuing to fight against the powers that are trying to undermine him.
Yeah, that's exactly right. So yet again, some people, you know,
on the on the political left, thought that this would undermine him.
Not only does it make him sympathetic more sympathetic, and it looks like the
quote unquote system is out to get him, but it also kind of if
there ever could have been a question about that, that sort of fighter element.
I mean, he's proving it. He's fighting, you know, in
some ways for his his maybe not literal life, but at least his freedom
and definitely his his life's work, if you will. On the business side,
he's fighting that on four different fronts personally, while also fighting politically,
so fighting within his party to then fight against, you know, the opposite
party. So this guy's fighting, you know, I mean, I don't
even know he can with every breath, you run out of fingers and toes
to count the fights that he's fighting at any given moment. And people are
like, the guy's worth whatever, how much money he's worth, he's however
old he is, you know, wouldn't he just ride off into the sunset
at a certain point. And they're like, whatever his motive is, you
know, maybe it's a personal vendetta, maybe it's fighting for you know,
certain values for the country at large. Whatever the case, that guy is
on a mission, and we want that. We don't want somebody that just
wants a position so that you know, that can kind of be part of
part of their their legacy or whatever. Of one more question, Tim,
and it's because the economy is in you know, not a great place for
so many people. If you're invested in the stock market, maybe, but
for so many average Americans that are seeing still crazy high prices at the grocery
store, in some cases at the gas pump, depending on where you are,
we're kind of experiencing an uneven economy. And I imagine a lot of
those books are in Iowa. So we talked about October seventh. We talked
about some of these really very significant and serious cultural issues. When people head
to the caucus on Monday night tonight, how heavily or how are they thinking
about the interplay between those cultural issues, those foreign policy issues, and frankly
just that sort of survival mentality in their pocketbooks and their bank accounts in the
Biden administration. Yeah, that's a fantastic question, which is again one of
the reasons why we fight so hard to make sure that i Alway stays in
that kind of pole position that it has enjoyed now now for over fifty years,
because not only I mean there are kind of worldview ideological reasons for it,
but at its core, it is flyover country. It's the part of
the country that politicians, i mean literally most politicians and media like don't want
to go to Iowa. It's it's literally like, can I please, you
know, like, I'll spend as little time as I have to there,
I want to, you know, and don't make me interact with any of
the people just you know, they don't know about callers. Yes, I'll
go backstage, I'll go out and I'll make the speech, I'll go back
to sage, I'll go back to the car, I'll go back to the
Airborne give me and But but the reality is, I mean, these are
just they're just normal people. They're good, decent people. You know,
they're family people, they're hardworking people, they just they don't all expect to
be billionaires. They just want kind of you know, they want life to
be a little bit easier than it is. And they definitely want to give
a better life and a better country for that matter, to their kids than
they have themselves, because they feel like that they got a little bit of
a better life for the most part than their parents have. So, you
know, I think that that that calculus that you just talked about, you
know, gas prices, especially when you're talking about you know, in agricultural
areas where so many things are contingent on on gas prices. It's it's a
huge part. It's almost uh, I do think that that you know,
in a place like I where are very cognizant of of of gas prices,
but a lot of places, you know, inflation and things like gas prices
are almost kind of baked in. They're almost like, uh, you know
that they're they're kind of implied or you know, canoded almost more than even
even stated, you know, and and so it's it's a huge part of
kind of everyday average Americans calculations, you know, for for normal expenses down
to where you know, if they're able to take a vacation or you know,
where they going to go to Florida? Are they just going to go
to like South Dakota or something? You know, so you know, all
all of these kinds of things, I mean, saving for college, just
you know, on down the down the line, these kinds of things absolutely
factor in. And I think it's I want people like that making these decisions.
I don't necessarily want bankers and you know, actuaries doing statistical analysis on
who should be the next president. I just want like policies that you know,
of the three hundred and thirty or so million of US in America,
probably three hundred and twenty million of US, you know, are making decisions
based on sort of pretty pretty predicate issues like you know, the cost of
eggs and the cost of school, and you know, can I can I
just maybe one or two times a week? Can we go out to eat?
You know, it's it's it's not necessarily the super high minded kind of
clandestine policy analysis that you know sometimes think tanks and universities can tuggle to.
Well, tim We're lucky to have gotten a slice of your time in this
extremely busy season for you. Timothy Head is the executive director of at the
Faith and Freedom Coalition. Thank you so much, Tim for coming back on
the show. It's always a treat to be with you, and I hope
that you're able to stay warm and stay engaged. And there's plenty more to
talk about, so hopefully we'll catch you a little bit farther down the road
here. Yes, absolutely, absolutely, well, you've been listening to another
edition of The Federalist or radio hour. I'm I'm Alisashinski, culture editor here
at The Federalist. We'll be back soon with more. Until then, the
lovers of freedom and anxious for the Fray