1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:07,679 This is the in This League Fantasy Podcast network, in This League Fantasy Baseball 2 00:00:07,759 --> 00:00:13,960 podcast online at in this League dot com. Now here's your host, Bogman 3 00:00:14,039 --> 00:00:18,920 and the Welsh. What's up, friends of Welcome in to the end of 4 00:00:18,879 --> 00:00:22,600 This League Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It's Welsh, It's Bogman, and it's you. 5 00:00:23,519 --> 00:00:27,960 We're back into our profiles. It's second base profiles for the twenty twenty 6 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,119 four season, but really profiling the twenty twenty three season. We're profiling what 7 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:36,799 these guys did, where they stand out. We might have a you know, 8 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,759 some anecdotal notes to add to some of these. I've been doing some 9 00:00:39,799 --> 00:00:42,679 write ups for the Black Book, and I happen to be on second base 10 00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:45,479 as we're recording this Bad Boy, so I've got some stuff. Bogman has 11 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,200 put together lots of other notes for us, so we can just give you 12 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,280 not only the top category of what they did, but guys that you know, 13 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,079 into the season may be hot or cold, some weird splits. To 14 00:00:56,119 --> 00:01:02,280 pay attention to profiling the entire position at second base to here on in this 15 00:01:02,439 --> 00:01:04,760 league a new thing that we're doing. Bogs and I actually thoroughly enjoy it 16 00:01:04,799 --> 00:01:10,159 because, like there's a lot of stuff that's going on baseball, why surprisingly 17 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:14,400 to people in November and December. But I also think people that do baseball 18 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:19,879 struggle with like what should we do for on air stuff? And I think 19 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,599 the common thing is like, you know, maybe doing early ranks, and 20 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,319 that's totally fine. Mock drafts are, but this is almost presenting people with 21 00:01:26,599 --> 00:01:32,799 prep. This is like we do prep. This is an online podcast version 22 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,280 of prep, just giving you all the basics of the position and kind of 23 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:38,840 getting everything set for this coming year and how people want to rank them. 24 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,319 Yeah, this is what we do in the off season. This is a 25 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:47,599 you know, you gather up the position, you put all the numbers in, 26 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:49,840 you start breaking it down, you move X here, y here, 27 00:01:49,959 --> 00:01:55,200 all that stuff. This is like the first glance and then you go into 28 00:01:55,239 --> 00:02:00,719 your You're ahead of me obviously when it comes to baseball stuff. So have 29 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:06,120 you already made your initial twenty twenty four rankings or is that the process that 30 00:02:06,159 --> 00:02:09,439 you're doing this section? So I had started and then I stopped because this 31 00:02:09,599 --> 00:02:14,120 is more important to do this. So what I do, what I'm doing 32 00:02:14,159 --> 00:02:17,680 in the process as I'm going through and I'm literally just doing research on every 33 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:22,919 single player. I'm doing write ups and then I'm getting my positional ranks. 34 00:02:23,199 --> 00:02:27,360 So once it's all done, I will have my initial ranks. I would 35 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,680 say it's fair to say mid December I will have a very very locked in 36 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,919 one because what I would do in the past is I tended to like to 37 00:02:36,039 --> 00:02:39,719 just do my initial no think about it, just process what the season just 38 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,240 happened, how I value them, and boom, that's my first rank, 39 00:02:44,479 --> 00:02:46,120 and then I would start some work, maybe give another update. Boom, 40 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,520 there's the next rank. I just don't think it's necessary. Maybe people want 41 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,719 it. People, you know, I mean, hey, if you're over 42 00:02:52,759 --> 00:02:54,960 on our patreon at Endleague dot com, that's where we post this stuff. 43 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:59,360 We post our ranks. I post prospect ranks. At the end of the 44 00:02:59,439 --> 00:03:00,520 day, I can stand. People are like, well, I'm paid for 45 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,759 it, you know, you just want content. Okay, we could do 46 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,120 that, but in this specific one, I've decided it's better for me to 47 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:14,719 go through this process and just go with a way more finalized version that's gonna 48 00:03:14,759 --> 00:03:20,520 have minimal adjustments throughout the year, then really posting the process. You know, 49 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,919 well, here's the first one, here's the second one. Because when 50 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:24,479 I dig into some of the there's a couple of second I'm interrupting. There's 51 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:30,879 like a second basement or two on here that I had really no interest in, 52 00:03:30,439 --> 00:03:34,639 wasn't even on top of my mind coming off of this past year. 53 00:03:34,719 --> 00:03:38,599 Not that they're horrible or anything, but just looking at things, the underlyings 54 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:44,039 I'm in like and I think I'm valuing them exponentially more than I would have, 55 00:03:44,479 --> 00:03:46,599 So I guess I get to avoid some of the like if I would 56 00:03:46,639 --> 00:03:50,039 have had my initial ranks, this guy might have been here, and then 57 00:03:50,039 --> 00:03:52,560 he boosts up and people are like, well, what's going on? Maybe 58 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:57,240 that causes some conversation. But all of this to say, initial ranks are 59 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,479 going to be in the next couple weeks, once this entire process is done, 60 00:04:00,719 --> 00:04:04,879 and I'll feel really really good about it. I don't typically like to 61 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:11,439 do my first initial ranks and post them until the Winter meetings are over, 62 00:04:11,719 --> 00:04:16,000 because after the Winter meetings then you have so many free agents signed, typically 63 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,879 lots of trades have happened, because that's when most of your off season trades 64 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,680 happen, is at the Winter meetings or immediately following them. You know, 65 00:04:24,759 --> 00:04:28,079 like you lay your base at the winter meetings and then you know, within 66 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,279 the next week, Okay, you're on the phone and it works. So 67 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:36,680 I like to kind of get to the middle of decemberish and then now we 68 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,079 know where a lot of the free agents are, we're gonna know where you 69 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,480 know, a lot of these guys Yamamoto who's been posted where he's gonna go 70 00:04:44,879 --> 00:04:48,120 where we expect you and I personally, and I think most people in the 71 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:54,639 industry are expecting a wide amount of trades because the free agent class is fairly 72 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:58,480 weak in terms of hitters. So there's gonna be a lot of deals made. 73 00:04:58,519 --> 00:05:01,839 There's gonna be a lot of moving pieces and line up in you know, 74 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,759 the lineup around you and your spot in the lineup mean a lot for 75 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,000 fantasy. So that is when I like to do. Mind, I think 76 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:12,920 the biggest reason to have had it already done, like to end the season 77 00:05:12,959 --> 00:05:15,680 and go, you know, like one of my co hosts, Scott white 78 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:17,040 Over on CBS that I do, you know he does his like right out 79 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,879 to shoot. I think the biggest benefit is if you take advantage of very 80 00:05:20,959 --> 00:05:26,079 very early NFBC drafts, that's your big advantage to take like you know, 81 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:30,480 two or three weeks and do this entire process very very early. Is taking 82 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,560 advantage of the early NFBC drafts, which is fine, that's not really necessarily 83 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,879 our world. I definitely will do some NFBC drafts, but that's probably going 84 00:05:36,959 --> 00:05:42,199 to be right at the end of December, in the early January range, 85 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,879 because also we have first Pitch, we have Arizona Fall League and stuff like 86 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,439 that. But all of that aside, December is going to be a fantastic 87 00:05:49,519 --> 00:05:53,560 month that in this league. So come and check us out in this League 88 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,439 dot com. That's the Patreon. The ranks will be there. We're going 89 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,879 to have updates to the prospect list, the dynasty list, everything that we're 90 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,600 talking about here is going to be in rank form. And our Christmas Special 91 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:10,000 Deck our Balls is happening December twenty second. There'll be there'll be a replay 92 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:14,439 available only available at in this League dot Com. That Christmas Special. It 93 00:06:14,519 --> 00:06:17,079 is full of just wild fun. We're hanging with people, we're drinking, 94 00:06:17,199 --> 00:06:21,560 We've got the Crazy Wheel. There's giveaways, there's a little debauchery. Debauchery 95 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,920 exactly. There's a it's a it's a wild fun experience. If you like 96 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,439 who we are is not going to be fantasy involved or anything like that, 97 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:35,079 but it is our yearly culmination of everything. So n you want access to 98 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,920 it in this league dot com, come and sign up today. We would 99 00:06:38,959 --> 00:06:43,199 love to have you. And also you're supporting us, so that's you know, 100 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,920 support access to us in the community the stuff we do in this league 101 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,000 dot com, Come and sign almination Colman Nation. And I don't know why, 102 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:54,480 but every time I hear that word. If you remember, if you 103 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,079 listening out there, a lot of you are probably not old enough to remember 104 00:06:57,079 --> 00:07:01,040 this, but in American pie, when they're watching the lacrosse coach give a 105 00:07:01,079 --> 00:07:05,839 speech, there's a coach behind him and the last word of whatever the main 106 00:07:05,879 --> 00:07:11,079 coach says, the assistant coach says, and he says culmination or whatever, 107 00:07:11,399 --> 00:07:16,680 and the assistant coach just goes culmination, yeah, real loud, yeah. 108 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,680 And I don't know why, but because he did it for like six different 109 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:24,959 words, that word right there, I every time I hear the one, 110 00:07:25,079 --> 00:07:28,319 No, you can't think of that, you can't let me finish culmination, 111 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,160 Well, I just wait for anyone to say it, and it doesn't matter, 112 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,079 like even if I'm biting my tongue and not saying it in my head. 113 00:07:34,079 --> 00:07:39,439 I'm going culmination. Culmination. It's the same actually effect as the old 114 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,720 Jim Gaffigan bit where it's like, uh, oh, you got a book, 115 00:07:42,759 --> 00:07:45,240 Can I borrow it? No? How long have you had it? 116 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:47,439 I've had it since I Can I borrow it? No? Exactly, there's 117 00:07:47,439 --> 00:07:50,240 a couple of bits you just you have to do. There's another one I'm 118 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,680 not thinking of right now, but sometimes you just have to finish them. 119 00:07:54,319 --> 00:07:58,360 We are going to jump into second base, so we're profiling the position. 120 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:01,959 We've tiered them, We've kind of like the tiers, we've got the NFBC. 121 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:05,439 We're going to talk about stats just overall, kind of give you the 122 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,759 primer. However you want to look at it for the second base position, 123 00:08:09,399 --> 00:08:13,240 and let's go do it. We'll get you second base profiles right after this. 124 00:08:13,319 --> 00:08:18,560 Right here in this league, in this league, somebody royally forked up. 125 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,000 Somebody forked up. Why can't I sk a fork? If you're trying 126 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:30,759 to curse, you can't hear full shirt? Holy mother four ka shirt boss. 127 00:08:31,399 --> 00:08:35,879 Second base not as bad as it's been in the past. There's actually 128 00:08:37,039 --> 00:08:41,200 I was just talking about this on CBS Fantasy Baseball today that you know, 129 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:45,600 I guess I haven't dug into the shortstops yet, and I kind of know 130 00:08:45,759 --> 00:08:50,000 the general scope of third base, but second, second base, and third 131 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:54,000 base is generally where people are crying, like, oh the position and blah 132 00:08:54,039 --> 00:09:00,320 blah, and it's like it's just not good and there's holes, there's some 133 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,519 warts and stuff. But I would say from the depth perspective, it's better 134 00:09:03,519 --> 00:09:07,279 than it's been in quite a few years. There are a few players that 135 00:09:07,519 --> 00:09:13,320 added eligibility. There are a few young players that haven't broke up, broke 136 00:09:13,399 --> 00:09:18,600 onto the scene in a way that they dominate the position. Say Matt McLean 137 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,399 is probably the one that is holding the hype. But you got some younger 138 00:09:22,399 --> 00:09:26,879 players and like Zach Geloff and Edward Julian that jump up the position. Stolen 139 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:31,919 bases, I think also have made this position quite a bit better, because 140 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,559 if you look, I'll just you know, randomly throw this out here. 141 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:39,600 Inside the top let's say four, seven, eight, nine, ten, 142 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:45,759 eleven, twelve. In the top twelve of NFBC, there is a only 143 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:50,919 one second baseman that did not steal double digits, which is crazy. There 144 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:58,480 are four that stole thirty or more bases at the position, and of those 145 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:05,159 twelve i'm looking here, nine of them stole fourteen or more bases. So 146 00:10:05,279 --> 00:10:11,159 second base has stabilized its value by adding those stolen bases to the market. 147 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,039 We talk about, you know, oh, stolen bases are up, and 148 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:18,320 they are, but they're exponentially up at this position. It's hard to not 149 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,120 get some stolen bases. But there's also some elite guys. So where there 150 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,000 might be players that lacked on maybe batting average or some of the power numbers 151 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,320 that hold them down, they made up for it in stolen bases. And 152 00:10:28,399 --> 00:10:33,240 what that did was that just made more viable starters at this position than we've 153 00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:37,799 had in I don't know, i'd say quite some time, Yeah, for 154 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,919 sure. And it also kind of to me makes it like you're kind of 155 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:46,399 because there's so many stolen bases at this position, you're kind of either going, 156 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:52,240 I'm spending big on a second basement that can do everything for me and 157 00:10:52,279 --> 00:10:54,200 I'm going to pay up for one of the big ones, or I'm going 158 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:58,759 to make sure I get my stolen bases here. That's kind of where I'm 159 00:10:58,799 --> 00:11:01,759 coming from at second base. And you know, some of these guys that 160 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:07,559 steel, they come with conditions. You know, they're not always the best 161 00:11:07,799 --> 00:11:11,840 after you get outside of the top twelve. So it is depthier than it 162 00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:16,840 has been, I'll say, but I'm still not really in love with second 163 00:11:16,919 --> 00:11:20,519 base. Yeah, And I guess it also becomes about like the flavor that 164 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,679 you need or want, because you know, at second base, I actually 165 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,720 think there's like for the most part, I said that definitively, and then 166 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,360 I backed off of it. For the most part, there's just like here 167 00:11:31,399 --> 00:11:35,799 are the power guys, and here are the speed guys. Because the speed 168 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,960 guys lack quite a bit, especially when you look at like the position like 169 00:11:41,039 --> 00:11:43,639 hard hit numbers. You've got super low hard hit numbers, super low barrel 170 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,320 numbers kind of across the board, and yet you'll still have these guys that 171 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,600 maxed out some of their value homer wise. I'll just randomly throw it out 172 00:11:52,639 --> 00:11:56,039 like hawesome Kim Bryson Stott, like they might have been at the tippy top 173 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,480 of what they can do when you put up those low hard hitt and barrel 174 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:05,080 rates, and you've got these like bigger hard hit power guys which are a 175 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:09,159 little bit more few and far between. At this position now, so you 176 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,720 know, finding either a the in between or picking well, this is what 177 00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:16,279 I want. I want this stolen base guy that might have more Wartz's power, 178 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,000 or I'm going to take a more power projected second base and not get 179 00:12:20,039 --> 00:12:24,559 my stolen bases out of here. You know, to each his own and 180 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,399 what your strategy is going to be. I just think there are a lot 181 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,759 more names to choose from. We've definitely had this conversation in the past where 182 00:12:30,759 --> 00:12:33,759 we're like, Okay, these guys look like starters, but oh my god, 183 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:35,200 look at this and it's like, well, you know, you get 184 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:39,440 down to twelve, eleven or twelve. I think the eleven or twelve this 185 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:45,039 year looks crazy better than it has in yes, the last five years. 186 00:12:45,399 --> 00:12:48,159 Now, when you get down to in a fifteen team league, you get 187 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:52,399 down to like the bottom starter. Okay, now we're opening up to maybe 188 00:12:52,399 --> 00:12:56,960 some questions. You're taking some more shots at maybe you know, only batting 189 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,559 average and Luisa Rise or you know, Edward Julian who's maybe got some concerns 190 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,039 and stuff like that. So it definitely falls off at the very very back 191 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,120 end of what is a startable second baseman. But there are just more names 192 00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:11,639 to choose from than I don't know. I feel like last year we were 193 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:16,879 like, there's six and then it just kind of stunk. It did. 194 00:13:16,919 --> 00:13:20,039 It did feel way lighter last year because a lot of these guys didn't qualify 195 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:24,639 at second base, right, so that was a big thing. Luckily, 196 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:28,440 we saw a lot of position movement this year, so there's a couple of 197 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,879 guys that have opened up this position, even on an FBC in places that 198 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,360 you know it requires twenty games, not like Yahoo, where you know you 199 00:13:35,399 --> 00:13:39,000 trip over second. Now you're a second basement. So yeah, so you're 200 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,679 right. It's definitely way deeper than it has been in the past. So 201 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,440 that is nice. Well, and you kind of set us up for the 202 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,480 very first guy. This is what I think for many of us, was 203 00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:54,639 a surprise player that was added to our pool that you know, we would 204 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,120 not have expected, but he played enough games to get there. It's Mookie 205 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:03,480 Bets. So MOOKI jumps up at the tippy top because he I don't have 206 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,559 the game. I guess I could click on fangrafts real quick and it'll tell 207 00:14:05,639 --> 00:14:09,720 us he played enough games at second base to qualify in all formats. He 208 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:15,159 would have qualified in Yahoo like without question, but he was able to get 209 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,360 over to second base five games. Okay, so sixty yeah, it still 210 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,519 hasn't quite loaded for me. Sixty five games at second base and I know 211 00:14:22,559 --> 00:14:26,720 it's so silly, but actually I see seventy games, but that doesn't matter. 212 00:14:26,759 --> 00:14:30,519 That might have been moving over seventy games at second base. Either way, 213 00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:35,720 it qualifies him. But the re signing of Jason Hayward, some people 214 00:14:35,799 --> 00:14:37,559 kind of looked at and were like, you know, that might be Mookie 215 00:14:37,559 --> 00:14:43,039 Betts playing more second base. And there's some trade rooms out there of Miguel 216 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,480 Vargas that would come off of that list. So all of that is just 217 00:14:46,519 --> 00:14:48,720 to set up that Mookie Bets qualifies. That's what matters. And he is 218 00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:54,559 the dominant second baseman. Thirty nine homers which technically led the position, one 219 00:14:54,639 --> 00:14:58,279 hundred and twenty six runs led the position, one hundred and seven rbi that 220 00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:01,000 was second at the position, fourteen stolen bases, kind of right in the 221 00:15:01,039 --> 00:15:05,559 middle, and as I'm doing a quick scroll, the only qualified second basement 222 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:11,879 with a four hundred OBP. So if you're jetting over to an OBP league, 223 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:15,759 he should be even more valuable. That is a three four five slash 224 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,200 and he's just kind of a monster across the board. And this is why 225 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,919 he's in the conversation as a top five overall pick at what is now even 226 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,879 a more premium position. Yeah, I mean the premium position just makes him 227 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,840 even more attractive if you're gonna buy. And then you look at all of 228 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:37,039 the savant stuff. He's just like top five percent in almost everything. It's 229 00:15:37,159 --> 00:15:41,000 crazy expect in all of his ex stats x WOLBA, batting average, slugging 230 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:46,159 ISOOBP, he's all in the ninety six percentile or better. There's just very 231 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:50,639 little downside at all. He's hitting in at the top of the lineup for 232 00:15:50,679 --> 00:15:52,919 one of the best lineups. I mean, Mochi is a beast, yeah, 233 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,679 and just finishing up at Mochi. Muki also had the best hard hit 234 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,519 percentage of anybody at the position. He was number two in average and number 235 00:16:00,519 --> 00:16:04,240 two in XBA behind Luisa Raise. So you know, Moki Betts is just 236 00:16:04,639 --> 00:16:11,240 the tippy top. He ended hot as well, hitting three forty seven on 237 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,279 the back half of the year three four five slash. And you also noted 238 00:16:15,639 --> 00:16:18,799 or no, I guess it was what is the maybe I'm reading this wrong, 239 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,519 ended hot cold because the big splits first half second half. Oh yeah, 240 00:16:22,559 --> 00:16:26,159 yeah, it's two seventy six to three forty seven, and he had 241 00:16:26,159 --> 00:16:29,159 the three four five slash in the second half, so that was like a 242 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:33,480 yeah, pretty severely positive second half. Looking looking at the overall Samon numbers 243 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:37,399 two six in x WOE but in the league, seventh in x slugging, 244 00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:42,240 twelfth in XBA, sixteenth in average exit V low. Like, there is 245 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:48,840 just no downside to Moki. So he is outstanding and NFBC drafts he's right 246 00:16:48,879 --> 00:16:52,519 around five h it's a it's a big core. He's a tier of his 247 00:16:52,559 --> 00:16:53,559 own. Yeah, he is a tier of his own. He's and you 248 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,039 know what, I'm throw this out to you. This might be one of 249 00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,279 the few years that him being a second basement actually doesn't because in five outfield 250 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,319 leagues, outfield is not quite as deep that you may still want him to 251 00:17:03,359 --> 00:17:07,279 be in the outfield. He just gives you more flexibility. So now going 252 00:17:07,319 --> 00:17:11,640 to the more traditional, going back to the more traditional of the second basement, 253 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,359 this tier two starts with Azzi Albis, who is coming off of a 254 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:22,440 phenomenal year hit two eighty thirty three homers ninety six runs. He led all 255 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:27,640 second basement with one hundred and nine RBI. He had thirteen stolen bases with 256 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:34,480 a five thirteen slug and was in the upper echellent of a lot of the 257 00:17:34,559 --> 00:17:40,640 overall analytics at a couple things I can tell you about him. His hard 258 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:45,079 hit number is pretty basic at thirty nine percent, but it's been a quality 259 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,440 of hit situation with Albi's. He's on a four year run of lowering his 260 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:53,799 strikeout rate, which dropped to sixteen point two percent, and as far as 261 00:17:55,079 --> 00:17:57,920 you know, taking advantage of what you're hitting, he has hit over three 262 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:03,200 hundred against both fastballs and breaking pitches, and that translated to a two ninety 263 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:08,880 average two ninety eight average against forteen fastballs. The really impressive one was a 264 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:15,279 three forty six average against sliders, which he saw thirteen percent of the time. 265 00:18:15,319 --> 00:18:18,400 That's like a really common thing that I've been looking at. Getting his 266 00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:22,160 pitch was this super important thing. He lowered his first pitch swing rate down 267 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:27,319 to thirty four point seven percent, and he then attacked the second pitch that 268 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,200 he was getting. This is a This is the other last weird wild stat 269 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:36,599 I'll give you. He hit twenty eight of his thirty three homers against right 270 00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:40,640 handers this year too, so that was like a huge lefty right He splits 271 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:47,720 three ninety one two fifty and the highest pole rate of any second baseman fifty 272 00:18:47,839 --> 00:18:55,200 four point five percent according to Fangrafs. Sometimes Fangrafs and uh Savant differ a 273 00:18:55,200 --> 00:19:00,279 little bit fifty four point five percent pole rate. So it's not free swinging 274 00:19:00,279 --> 00:19:03,960 at the first pitch, it's being able to hit sliders, being able to 275 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:10,119 work your count, pull the ball even without big hard hit numbers, and 276 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,680 not strikeout. He utilized it into becoming one of the more premier hitters. 277 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:18,799 Yeah, I mean Ozzie is. Ozzie's a tough out. He will chase 278 00:19:18,839 --> 00:19:22,519 every once in a while. I think that rate is pretty low in terms 279 00:19:22,559 --> 00:19:27,440 of percentile chase rate is in the bottom fourteen percent. He's not walking a 280 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:32,359 lot, like you said, He's not always hitting it hard, but doesn't 281 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,839 matter. When he gets it, he gets it. He drove in over 282 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:40,519 one hundred, he almost scored one hundred and ninety six at ninety six thirty 283 00:19:40,519 --> 00:19:44,599 three bombs to eighty, and he's smack in the middle of one of the 284 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,680 top three lineups in the game, the number one in my opinion. If 285 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,240 they add Otani, it might be one of the best lineups ever. So 286 00:19:52,279 --> 00:19:56,279 the Braves are just unbelievable right now. He's hitting in the middle of it, 287 00:19:56,319 --> 00:20:02,200 and he's a strong hitter. So just a great Ozzie is yea every 288 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,519 time. And I forgot this is what I was trying to say before I 289 00:20:03,559 --> 00:20:07,680 lost my place in one of my write ups here. So not only this 290 00:20:07,759 --> 00:20:11,319 is what I was getting to when I was talking about the getting his first 291 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:15,359 pitch. He's not swinging as much as he was before. At the first 292 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,519 pitch, he's doing damage against sliders, so he's getting to that next pitch. 293 00:20:19,079 --> 00:20:22,880 Not only did he hit twenty eight of his thirty eight homers against right 294 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:26,400 handed pitchers. This is the stat I wanted to give you. He attacked 295 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:32,240 the second pitch that came to him. Twenty eight of his thirty three homers 296 00:20:32,519 --> 00:20:37,920 came in either a one oh count or an oh one count twenty eight. 297 00:20:37,319 --> 00:20:41,519 No, I, in my early process of this, I have seen nobody 298 00:20:41,599 --> 00:20:45,599 with even remotely close of that type of an extreme The second in the count 299 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:51,039 twenty eight of thirty three homers came from. So it is getting to his 300 00:20:51,279 --> 00:20:55,799 pitch, whether it is him seeing sliders better or it's you know, them 301 00:20:55,839 --> 00:21:00,519 starting him off breaking and getting a fastball, especially if they're if they're behind 302 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,200 on like a one to zero count. Twenty eight homers in that count I 303 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:07,079 thought was a wild stat. It's kind of crazy. I mean, it 304 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,480 feels like you just don't throw him strikes early in the count. Then you 305 00:21:11,519 --> 00:21:15,440 know if he's gonna attack that second pitch every single time because he has a 306 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,920 high chase rate. So what he's trying to do is he is trying to 307 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,319 get to an early pitch so he doesn't get into a chase count. So 308 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,119 I would just make him chase early. But we'll see if he can. 309 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,640 I'm sure everyone has thought about that who looks at a scouting report. So 310 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,799 we'll see if they can adjust on him. But that is pretty that's pretty 311 00:21:34,799 --> 00:21:37,680 wild. Think you said to have twenty eight to thirty three bombs on the 312 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:45,799 second pitch's nuts and twenty two of his thirty three bombs came off of fastballs, 313 00:21:45,079 --> 00:21:49,240 so he absolutely destroyed fastballs. You know, I already mentioned the average, 314 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,839 but like you didn't get beat by sliders. When you don't get beat 315 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,559 by sliders, you're more likely to get more fastball counts. And it's just 316 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,319 a really interesting process and he just helped himself by lowering the striker I'm saying, 317 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:04,400 I love Ozzy Alby's, Like those are all things that like cool, 318 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,039 fun ones like I love looking at like barrel and hard hit and kind of 319 00:22:07,039 --> 00:22:10,759 falling in love with players there. But if you're looking deeper, he doesn't 320 00:22:10,799 --> 00:22:12,599 really have that you all of a sudden then can fall in love with like, 321 00:22:12,599 --> 00:22:17,559 oh, this is a guy that is not swinging as much. He's 322 00:22:17,599 --> 00:22:19,799 getting himself into accounts. He's lowering his strikeout rate. Oh and by the 323 00:22:19,799 --> 00:22:25,759 way, there's such a common denominator between guys who struggled that also struggle with 324 00:22:25,759 --> 00:22:30,119 sliders. He's not. And you know, there is a big, big 325 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,680 pole power. He's utilizing every bit of it. I do think there's a 326 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:37,720 possibility the homers don't sustain because that is like an insanely heavy pole rate, 327 00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:41,480 and he'll be get adjusted to this year. But I think he is as 328 00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:45,920 safe as you can get with that old Ozzi Alby's. Number two kind of 329 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,640 in a very similar boat is Marcus Simeon. He hit two seventy six this 330 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:53,799 past year, twenty nine homers, one hundred and twenty two runs, which 331 00:22:53,880 --> 00:23:00,279 was second at the position, one hundred rbi, fourteen stolen bases. And 332 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,920 this is like Ozzy Alby's, there's a lot of similarities. He's not quite 333 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:08,480 as much of a slugger. Barrel percentage was quite a bit lower as well. 334 00:23:08,799 --> 00:23:12,640 On Simeon, any thoughts you want to throw in before I add on 335 00:23:12,759 --> 00:23:18,200 Simeon here, Well for for Simeon. For me, it's weird because this 336 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,720 is one of the streakiest hitters that we've ever seen in baseball. Like I 337 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,160 just you know, watching him play and looking at his numbers, it's always 338 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:30,039 been big swings. He didn't have that this year. You know. Uh, 339 00:23:30,559 --> 00:23:33,240 Like first month he came out and hit two sixty eight. Second month 340 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,480 he bumped up to three twenty two. So I was kind of like, 341 00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:40,039 all right, here we go. But then the next months two fifty sixty 342 00:23:40,079 --> 00:23:42,720 seven, two seventy seven all close in the same range. His first half 343 00:23:42,799 --> 00:23:48,359 numbers was too was average was two seventy one, second half two eighty three. 344 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,440 Lefty righty Splitzer within ten points thirty one points at home away. Uh, 345 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,759 So everything was kind of close for him until the playoffs, where you 346 00:23:56,799 --> 00:24:02,839 and I obviously saw Marcus Simeon hit a very important homer, But before that 347 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:07,359 it was like he was great to start for the Rangers, awful in the 348 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,759 ALCS in the first part of the World Series, and in those last three 349 00:24:10,799 --> 00:24:12,400 games he picked it up. That's more of than Marcus SIMI and I know. 350 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,680 But if he can, I mean, he hits lead off of the 351 00:24:15,759 --> 00:24:21,759 Rangers who are unbelievable lineup and just getting better. So it's a great spot 352 00:24:21,759 --> 00:24:23,359 for him to be in. He's definitely worth coming up here. And if 353 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:29,319 he is kind of, you know, cooled off that streakiness that he has, 354 00:24:29,759 --> 00:24:33,039 he's even more fun to own. So a great season that he's coming 355 00:24:33,079 --> 00:24:37,119 off of huge playoff performance as well, and yeah, I mean, he's 356 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,559 just a guy that you want at second base. He was one of only 357 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:44,400 nine players in baseball to have twenty homers, go one hundred hundred, and 358 00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:49,559 have double digit steals, which was pretty impressive. He's got like lower hard 359 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,759 hit and barrel numbers that you want, but he also kind of drives the 360 00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:56,880 ball and counts that he wants, and he lowered his strikeout rate. There's 361 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:02,440 another like common denominator of play that found success. No shocker is lowering your 362 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,960 strikeout rate fourteen point six percent. He also I thought this one was kind 363 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:11,319 of interesting. He had the fourth biggest launch angle at the position nineteen point 364 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,559 one degrees. That's a fourth straight year he's had nineteen or higher. And 365 00:25:15,559 --> 00:25:19,599 it also correlates with a lot of his big production uppercut. And that's kind 366 00:25:19,599 --> 00:25:22,440 of the thing because check this out. There's not great barrel, there's not 367 00:25:22,519 --> 00:25:26,079 great hard hit. So what do you do. You get the ball in 368 00:25:26,079 --> 00:25:29,160 the air and you pull it. Guess what. Like Albi's pull, hep 369 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:34,640 happy forty nine point four percent. Only four of his twenty nine homers went 370 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:40,359 to center or opposite field. That is way way big, pull heavy. 371 00:25:41,039 --> 00:25:44,240 And one other interesting thing I'll throw out about him, as far as being 372 00:25:44,279 --> 00:25:47,839 a consistent hitter, this doesn't play to the power. I also think you're 373 00:25:47,839 --> 00:25:51,960 gonna have more wild swings with him theoretically with the power numbers, But as 374 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,000 far as the hitter goes, you lower the strikeout rate and then you have 375 00:25:55,039 --> 00:25:59,680 this. He saw seven different pitch types at least four point eight percent of 376 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,880 the time or higher. Obviously, like fastballs you see thirty percent of the 377 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,680 time, so seven pitch types essentially like five percent of the time. Only 378 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:12,880 one he hit under two sixty three against, and guess what that was, 379 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,960 the four seam fastball, which he saw the most. That's the only one 380 00:26:17,039 --> 00:26:22,599 that he hit under two sixty three. So that tells me there might be 381 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,640 some potential slumps in there for power because he is looking to hit. He's 382 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,119 looking to not get beat in other spots, but it creates the floor. 383 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,559 He's a fantastic hitter. Projections kind of agree. That's a little breakdown for 384 00:26:34,599 --> 00:26:41,400 you of Marcus Simeon RBI's I also throw out he had one hundred RBI and 385 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,599 he's a leadoff guy. The Rangers had second, and by the way, 386 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,480 he didn't hit anywhere else. He played every single game and he hit lead 387 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,880 off every single game. By the way, there are two second basemen on 388 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,400 this list here that literally hit in every single spot one through nine on their 389 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,640 team so far, and he never moved out of it. So this is 390 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,279 a little bit more reliant. The Rangers scored i think, the second most 391 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,119 runs in baseball, the third most runs in baseball, the most in the 392 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:10,480 AL and I guess if you do that, you can have one hundred RBI 393 00:27:10,519 --> 00:27:14,359 out of that position lead off guy. Yeah. Me personally, I'm looking 394 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:18,519 at Simeon as a great floor guy that probably drops RBI and some of the 395 00:27:18,559 --> 00:27:26,960 homer numbers, and I think for the most part that's kind of the projections 396 00:27:26,039 --> 00:27:29,440 kind of agree with that. The RBI numbers are lower, and I think 397 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,759 I just went away from it, but I think the home run numbers are 398 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:34,319 let me take a look here. I think they're a little bit lower on 399 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,079 steamer at least we might see some other projections jump out with some other stuff. 400 00:27:38,079 --> 00:27:41,519 It's yeah, twenty seven homers, so two less rbi are two less 401 00:27:41,519 --> 00:27:45,200 homers, but twenty two less RBI and the batting average being a tiny bit 402 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,079 lower, I think that's fair. Yeah, I think that's kind of fair 403 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,599 too. The third in this tier here is Jose Altuve. He hit three 404 00:27:52,599 --> 00:27:57,839 to eleven after missing some time, seventeen homers, fourteen stolen bases, had 405 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:03,319 seventy six runs in a little over four hundred played appearances, had a three 406 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,119 ninety three OBP for AL two A. The time mist was due to a 407 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:11,440 fractured thumb. He suffered in the WBC, so he returned in May, 408 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,880 and he kind of just kept rocking with that, what do you want to 409 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,400 add? And then I'll add in a few little anecdotal things on Al two 410 00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,200 A. Yeah, you know, digging into Al two A, it's not 411 00:28:21,279 --> 00:28:25,680 great. I was a little surprised because we talked about his war during this 412 00:28:25,799 --> 00:28:29,400 season, because it was just like crazy his war that he put up his 413 00:28:29,519 --> 00:28:30,960 F four, you know, like I've said before, not playing in war 414 00:28:32,079 --> 00:28:33,920 leagues. But his numbers are great too, coming back, Like he said, 415 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:40,119 he hit three eleven. He is down. So seventeen homers, fourteen 416 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,680 swipes with the three ninety three OEP is all great, but when you dig 417 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:47,759 a little deeper, like I said, he had the biggest negative difference in 418 00:28:47,839 --> 00:28:52,599 qualified batters between his expected batting average and his actual batting average, meaning his 419 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:56,599 actual batting average is three to eleven. Like I said, he was down, 420 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,920 he was amber, but his expected batting average two forty eight, a 421 00:29:00,119 --> 00:29:06,759 sixty three point difference that is enormous. He also was two thirty one out 422 00:29:06,759 --> 00:29:11,440 of two hundred and fifty eighth batters that qualified in hard hit percentage and two 423 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:15,559 hundred and forty second of two fifty eight an average exit below. So when 424 00:29:15,599 --> 00:29:21,079 you dive in and see those numbers, they are a little concerning for a 425 00:29:21,079 --> 00:29:26,200 guy that's aging. A couple other notes, his babbitt was the fourth highest 426 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,839 at the position at three forty eight over his career. That's only around twenty 427 00:29:30,839 --> 00:29:36,079 points more than normal, but it's the highest he's had since twenty and eighteen. 428 00:29:36,759 --> 00:29:41,119 This one I thought was interesting. So on the batting average, the 429 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:45,839 batting average of three twenty eight or higher against any pitch he saw ten percent 430 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,599 or more of the time, that's what he had. He had a three 431 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:55,160 twenty eight batting average of all four I think it is four of the pitches. 432 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,279 I think it's three three pitches he saw ten percent or more of the 433 00:29:57,319 --> 00:30:02,240 time. I'll actually confirm it by staring at it right now. Yeah, 434 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,920 he saw sinker, sliders, and four seamers at least ten percent of the 435 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:10,480 time. He hit three twenty eight or better. Three fifty seven, four 436 00:30:10,519 --> 00:30:14,440 seemer, three thirty three slider, three twenty eight sinker. That's freakin' awesome, 437 00:30:14,559 --> 00:30:18,079 right, Well, this comes back to your XBA. Every one of 438 00:30:18,119 --> 00:30:27,119 those has at minimum eighty points or lower expected batting average againstool. So here's 439 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:33,200 perspective, three point fifty seven batting average against four seemers, a two sixty 440 00:30:33,359 --> 00:30:41,519 seven expected slider even worse, three thirty seven batting average and expected two thirty 441 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,400 seven. That's one hundred point differential. So what does that all mean? 442 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,240 Oh, guys, you're doing expected jays blah blah blah. Yeah, sure, 443 00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:52,039 but what it does is it just shows like there might not have been 444 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:56,960 enough time to stabilize. He overperformed at the position. We're are gonna be 445 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:02,680 different bigger anyway because he only played ninety games. Yeah, and do you 446 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,880 also have an aging decline that's coming in, So you have like an increased 447 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:11,319 Babbitt with expected numbers that wildly tell you he should have hit worse. I 448 00:31:11,359 --> 00:31:18,319 think he's relatively commonly a guy that's gonna like overperform or expected expected numbers usually 449 00:31:18,359 --> 00:31:21,160 sit a lot higher. For example, last year, he hit three sixteen 450 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:26,079 against four seemers with a two ninety three expected batting average. His slider had 451 00:31:26,079 --> 00:31:30,960 a fifty percent difference between batting average and expected batting average. So this is 452 00:31:30,279 --> 00:31:36,799 highly more abnormal. You take a guy that is getting a bit older, 453 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:41,839 already got hurt and incredibly overperformed. Had he been in the same ADP range 454 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:48,240 as Simon and Albi's, i'd call it black. As of November first in 455 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,160 NFC drafts, he's going around forty two. I don't know. I think 456 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,240 it's okay. You know, if you would have put his numbers, you 457 00:31:55,359 --> 00:31:57,440 spread them out, his numbers would have obviously looked a lot better. I 458 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,720 think there's a lot of people that are complete le back in. I just 459 00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:05,279 don't think I'm completely back in. But that is obviously more of a of 460 00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:08,319 a rank conversation for him, for sure. Do you have I cannot find 461 00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:12,319 this sheet here. I want to see what his Steamer projections look like, 462 00:32:12,359 --> 00:32:15,680 and then we'll speed up on these next guys here. I got it here. 463 00:32:15,119 --> 00:32:20,680 So if obviously, if you would have spanned out his entire season in 464 00:32:20,759 --> 00:32:24,039 ninety games, you're probably looking at something along the lines of like twenty five 465 00:32:24,119 --> 00:32:29,519 twenty five right around there. Projections are around one hundred and forty seven games, 466 00:32:29,559 --> 00:32:32,400 twenty four homers, fifteen stolen bases, ninety seven runs with a two 467 00:32:32,559 --> 00:32:37,480 seventy three batting average. That two seventy three batting average would be the second 468 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:43,279 worst of his career, so just throwing that out of his entire career. 469 00:32:43,359 --> 00:32:49,720 Projected second worst batting average of his career, but everything else is kind of 470 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,039 stabilized. I think he's fine outside the top fifty. I like in a 471 00:32:52,079 --> 00:32:55,039 good second basement. I just don't think I'm paying this price for him. 472 00:32:55,160 --> 00:33:00,839 I think that's kind of where I've come to a realization on to and I 473 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,519 think a lot of people are going to have that revelation, and I think 474 00:33:04,519 --> 00:33:07,920 he's going to drop in value and probably kind of slide into this next tier 475 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:12,759 of guys. Yeah, so those are the that's kind of the top tier 476 00:33:12,799 --> 00:33:16,400 that doesn't consist of mooki bets. So going into this next tier, these 477 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:22,720 are NFBC quote second baseman that finish out from essentially the top fifty to the 478 00:33:22,759 --> 00:33:25,960 top one hundred. There's only three of them that are sitting in that range, 479 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,640 so that could create some scarcity. If there's only seven qualified in the 480 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,319 top one hundred, you might have people reaching and that's what would maybe move 481 00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,839 me away a little bit from a guy like hose Al Tuove. But we 482 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,640 go to Matt McClain, So there's one of your big breakout guys in eighty 483 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:45,920 nine games sixteen homers, fourteen stolen bases, sixty five runs, fifty rbi. 484 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:52,519 For perspective, putting that against Jose al Tuove, it's a twenty point 485 00:33:52,559 --> 00:33:57,880 lower batting average, one less homer, nine less runs, almost the same 486 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,599 rbi, same stolen bases, quite a bit lower of an OBP. Yet 487 00:34:01,759 --> 00:34:07,440 he's going like twenty spots behind him, So negatively or positively, you can 488 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,400 take a look at that. With Matt McClain. Projections put him around to 489 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:15,480 twenty two seventeen with a lower batting average, though he is in a beautiful 490 00:34:15,559 --> 00:34:20,320 ballpark forty two percent hard hit rate, ten almost eleven percent barrel rate, 491 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:24,679 which I really like. Expected numbers are quite a bit lower. The world 492 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:29,199 is the is your oyster type of thing with Matt McClain. So I think 493 00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:32,519 actually Matt McClain versus al Twove is like a really fascinating debate because you've got, 494 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:37,599 you know, the old steady in al Twove that comes at a little 495 00:34:37,599 --> 00:34:39,760 bit of a discount versus a guy in Matt McClain, who I would say 496 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:44,800 actually did fairly well first to second half, three hundred to two seventy six 497 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,679 batting average, distributed, the homers, well, stole the same amount of 498 00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:52,440 bases in that time. He just got hurt and he missed time. Yeah, 499 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,599 for the price, I definitely want mcclan so, but you are right 500 00:34:57,159 --> 00:35:00,440 looking at the expected stats, which you know, like you said before, 501 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:05,320 some people respect them, some people don't. I get it. But everything 502 00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:07,000 was negative for him on the expected SATs. I think a lot of that 503 00:35:07,079 --> 00:35:10,480 has to do with the ballpark though, too. You know we're putting that 504 00:35:10,519 --> 00:35:16,920 factor in. Yeah, because his ex Whoeba to wOBA was the seventh biggest 505 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:22,840 difference in baseball three seventy three thirty two, ninth biggest negative difference in slugging 506 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,679 to x slugging, a seventy two point difference five h seven to four to 507 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:31,320 thirty five, and thirteen highest negative difference between his average and XBA two ninety 508 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:36,119 to two fifty five, So thirty five points there as well. So yeah, 509 00:35:36,199 --> 00:35:39,800 just some negative there from a guy with a smaller, little bit of 510 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:44,360 a smaller sample size here in only eighty nine games. But I mean, 511 00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:47,679 you know, the extrapolation game is amazing, and there's no other big splits. 512 00:35:47,679 --> 00:35:52,199 There's no huge home road splits, lefty righty splits for him. Month 513 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:57,440 to month, So I kind of like mat Matt McClain, even though some 514 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,000 of these numbers say that there is a little regression, you'd expect that from 515 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:05,679 a guy they only played ninety games. Yeah, he's top seven at the 516 00:36:05,679 --> 00:36:08,920 position in barrel percentage ten point eight, which I like. I think he's 517 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:13,360 in the top like fifty. Oh no, it's actually top ten. He's 518 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:19,239 eighth overall at hard hard hit percentage at the position. There's a great launch 519 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,639 angle. Max EV is in the upper echelon. It was essentially one ten. 520 00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:29,400 His average EV dipped like just a tiny bit. I'll say this is 521 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:34,599 one other little positive to add in. He didn't have extreme home road splits. 522 00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,159 He did hit three zero four at home with ten homers, but he 523 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:43,280 hit two seventy nine on the road and had six homers in a few more 524 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,800 games, So the power potential is a little bit higher. Matt McClain looks 525 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:52,840 like a pretty safe safe for us not having enough of a sample size twenty 526 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:57,920 five to fifteen guy. And that's funny picking on that. I can verbally 527 00:36:58,199 --> 00:37:00,840 understand that. Picking on that versus out Tuve, who is probably a safe 528 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:05,719 twenty five to fifteen guy, you're just dealing with maybe some declines that are 529 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,719 coming in. But I think you can also live in a world where you 530 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:14,039 could extrapolate and maybe see Matt McLain as a thirty thirty guy. And I 531 00:37:14,079 --> 00:37:16,800 don't like the expected stats going lower, but good hard hit numbers, good 532 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:22,199 barrel percentage numbers, and if there's continued work on the strikeout rate, I 533 00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,440 think that's going to work really well in his favor. But he did have 534 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:30,760 a twenty eight and a half percent k rate, which is quite a bit 535 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:34,880 alarming. So he's a little bit more risk reward. Maybe you want a 536 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:39,599 little bit more value on him. He's going sixty one in NFBC draft since 537 00:37:40,559 --> 00:37:45,280 November. That is less than twenty spots away from Altuve. But he also 538 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,440 qualifies a shortstop. So take that, put that near pipe and smoke it. 539 00:37:49,679 --> 00:37:52,840 Nico Horner, this is one of those guys we were talking about. 540 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,440 We're now starting to get into this range where the boppers become a little bit 541 00:37:55,519 --> 00:38:00,880 less and there's these guys that saved their fantasy value by stealing bases. I 542 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:04,960 mean, if you would have taken these stolen bases away from Horner, it's 543 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,760 not much of a fantasy player. Outside of he did score an enormous amount 544 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,639 of runs. I believe this is like the third most runs at the position. 545 00:38:10,679 --> 00:38:15,760 He had nine homers, ninety eight runs, scored, sixty eight RBI, 546 00:38:15,039 --> 00:38:22,039 stealing forty three bases with a three forty six batting average. And I'm 547 00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:24,800 not looking at my big major leader board here, but I believe those forty 548 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:29,599 three bases are number one at the position. Is that? Uh? Yeah, 549 00:38:29,599 --> 00:38:35,440 that sounds party gotta be okay. Yeah, so let's see forty three 550 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:39,159 Yeah, the most at the position and six most in baseball. So what 551 00:38:39,199 --> 00:38:42,480 do you want to add on Horner? And then I'll throw a couple things 552 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,719 in. Yeah, you know Nico Horner. If you just open up his 553 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:50,480 savant page, I mean it's blue, da dadi, da da da. 554 00:38:50,519 --> 00:38:52,800 There's a lot of blue on it. There's some red in here too, 555 00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,800 and there's some good red. So but like you said, you're here for 556 00:38:55,880 --> 00:39:00,360 stolen bases. Now, the good news is that even though he has some 557 00:39:00,519 --> 00:39:05,679 bad stackcast numbers, you know, two fifty two of two hundred and fifty 558 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,320 eight barrels per plate appearance, two hundred and thirty first out of two fifty 559 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:15,840 eight in average exit V low low percentage hard hit bottom sixteen percent. The 560 00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,800 nice thing is is while he's not hitting the ball hard, he's always putting 561 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,599 it in play. I mean, his wifth rate is the top one percent 562 00:39:23,679 --> 00:39:29,400 of the league. His strikeout rate is top four percent of the league. 563 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,519 So he's not walking a lot, but he puts the ball in play and 564 00:39:31,599 --> 00:39:35,880 he uses that speed. So it allowed him to hit to eighty three. 565 00:39:36,159 --> 00:39:40,039 He only hit nine homers. Like you said, obp is okay, it's 566 00:39:40,079 --> 00:39:44,199 three forty six for a guy that hit two eighty three. It's a little 567 00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,159 low, but that's fine. He's just not going to hit you homers. 568 00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:51,559 You if you're drafting Nico Horner, you're taking him for the stolen bases. 569 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,119 You know, you have to worry about that less. But now you have 570 00:39:53,199 --> 00:39:57,800 to gain some power. So he is a little bit of a conditional guy 571 00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,679 when you draft him, but for what you get back, he is absolutely 572 00:40:00,679 --> 00:40:06,840 worth this price. He had the sixth worst qualified hard hit percentage at the 573 00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:13,679 position at thirty three percent. He had a one point seven percent barrel rate. 574 00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:20,920 For perspective, there's only one player that had a under forty percent hard 575 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,559 hit rate and a worse barrel percentage, and that is Jeff McNeil. That's 576 00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:27,519 kind of an interesting comp into him as well. But I mean, like 577 00:40:27,599 --> 00:40:30,559 even Luisa Rise had a three and a half percent barrel rate, but he 578 00:40:30,599 --> 00:40:34,639 had a worse hard hit rate. One of the other things in digging into 579 00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:38,360 Nico Horner, I just don't believe there's like ever any power projection. One 580 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:44,960 hundred ISO and like bottom four percent of ISO. It's not good though. 581 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:50,239 He is like a good hit. He's a good hitter, really low strike 582 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,000 up percentage, twelve point one percent strike up percentage, that was in the 583 00:40:52,039 --> 00:40:55,840 bottom fourth percentile of the league. That's great, solid contact hitter, but 584 00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:00,440 he's doing it. He's like a strictly fastball hitter. His strikeout rate was 585 00:41:00,559 --> 00:41:05,159 under ten percent against four seams, sinkers, and cutters. So it's like 586 00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,119 that is where he is not getting beat and he's doing his damage off of 587 00:41:08,199 --> 00:41:12,400 fastballs alone. But he doesn't lift him, he doesn't hit him hard, 588 00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,039 he doesn't pull him. There's no power projection in there for me, and 589 00:41:15,119 --> 00:41:19,519 frankly, like, I think it's cool. Whatever offensive pieces are there, 590 00:41:19,559 --> 00:41:22,679 I'm gonna pay attention to because he can score a lot of runs. But 591 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:28,800 RBIs don't exist. I don't personally believe like the batting average is really gonna 592 00:41:29,119 --> 00:41:31,760 stick into like a crazy it's ever gonna get to an elite territory. Here's 593 00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:36,639 what you get. You get fined good batting average. You get really good 594 00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,679 runs and really good stolen bases, and that's it. RBI's kind of defunct. 595 00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:44,239 Homers are not there. I'm just not as interested. He's a stolen 596 00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,480 based chase. That's what you're doing, your stolen base chase with no power 597 00:41:46,519 --> 00:41:51,920 projection. Now on the other end, the last guy in this tier hasan 598 00:41:52,039 --> 00:41:55,119 kim hit two sixty, the lowest of this tier. Seventeen homers were the 599 00:41:55,119 --> 00:42:00,559 most eighty four runs sixty. Rbi actually less than Horner with thirty eight stolen 600 00:42:00,599 --> 00:42:06,840 bases. He had a three P fifty OBP and you know, really a 601 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:12,559 revelation of the year. Again, the problem is is he's not supported by 602 00:42:12,639 --> 00:42:16,880 a whole lot of the expected stats and the power projection as well. So 603 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:22,000 he had the most homers of any second baseman to steal twenty or more bases, 604 00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,920 but the projectable power is out because he had a twenty six point seven 605 00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:31,199 percent hard hit rank rate, which ranked third worst at second base and the 606 00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:37,519 fifth worst in baseball. Also a suboptimal exit velocity of eighty six point two 607 00:42:37,599 --> 00:42:42,800 percent on average, which was in the seventh percentile. And then pair that 608 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,760 with a four point four batting average a barrel rate, and then the last 609 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:50,159 thing is he had a two to forty three expected batting average. I want 610 00:42:50,199 --> 00:42:54,519 to like has Sun Kim, but everything under the hood is telling you there 611 00:42:54,920 --> 00:43:00,119 is a not sustainable batting average and the batting and and a power projection. 612 00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:05,400 So if the power projection goes away and you get to like a twelve homer, 613 00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:10,280 maybe thirty stolen base, good runs and low RBI, he's Nico Horner 614 00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,679 all over again. He did hit more homers, and maybe we don't have 615 00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,920 enough data long term, you know, for who he is coming over from 616 00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:22,360 the KBO. But I was a little discouraged when you dug in a little 617 00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:23,719 bit, like a little bit more, because this is another one of those 618 00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:27,559 guys that, like, you know, hey, super low chase rate. 619 00:43:27,639 --> 00:43:29,719 He had one of the lowest chase rates in baseball, by the way, 620 00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:34,679 it was near like Sales. Suzuki doesn't chase and doesn't swing at first pitches, 621 00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,400 and he tries to be very patient, tries to find his pitch, 622 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:42,079 but there wasn't a whole lot of like underlying things that support him being able 623 00:43:42,119 --> 00:43:45,679 to build off of this let alone repeat. Yeah, and you know big 624 00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:50,280 lefty righty splits two as well, three h two against lefties and two forty 625 00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:53,280 one against righty's which is why he hit two sixty. Can't hit righties, 626 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:57,239 and that's not a good spot to be in. In the bigs, most 627 00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:01,840 pitchers are righties, so it's kind of a tough look there. Also, 628 00:44:02,079 --> 00:44:06,039 you know, I feel like maybe he would do better if they put him 629 00:44:06,039 --> 00:44:09,400 in one spot, and I mean just on the field and in the lineup. 630 00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:13,519 He played one hundred and one games at second, thirty, at third, 631 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:15,760 eighteen at short, so I guess mainly it's like a basement, but 632 00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:20,320 they were kicking him around there. But in the lineup, seventy three games 633 00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:23,000 at first, thirty, one at seventh, thirteen at six, thirteen, 634 00:44:23,039 --> 00:44:28,400 at eight, seven, at second, five, at fifth, six at 635 00:44:28,519 --> 00:44:31,119 ninth, so they're moving him all up and down the lineup and moving him 636 00:44:31,159 --> 00:44:37,679 positions. He's a guy that might stable out if we get him in one 637 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,719 spot. But you know, because it's just a lot for him to do. 638 00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:45,280 It's you know, you're living in a different country, you're moving all 639 00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:50,119 over different positions, facing different pitchers, and he might get traded this offseason 640 00:44:50,159 --> 00:44:53,840 too. His name has been kicked around in rumors as the Patres start to 641 00:44:54,119 --> 00:44:57,559 maybe cut payroll here, and if that were to be the case, you 642 00:44:57,559 --> 00:44:59,760 know, the one thing I'll say, he is like, again, this 643 00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,719 is why there are guys that shared some of these similarities. Again, this 644 00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:06,599 is another one of those guys. I said, Yes, super low hard 645 00:45:06,679 --> 00:45:09,440 hit, super low barrel. How you get into seventeen homers got a big 646 00:45:09,519 --> 00:45:13,519 launch angle, forty five percent pull rate. I mean forty five percent pull 647 00:45:13,559 --> 00:45:17,440 Rate's not insane, but that's more in the upper echelot of players doing it. 648 00:45:17,519 --> 00:45:22,679 Forty percent ground ball, thirty eight percent the fly ball, and almost 649 00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,199 fourteen degree launch angle. So again, pull the crap out of the ball, 650 00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,840 get it in the air, and get some homers that are going out. 651 00:45:29,039 --> 00:45:30,199 There is an interesting I don't know if I can pull it up in 652 00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:34,480 time. I could take a look here. You can go over to Homers 653 00:45:34,519 --> 00:45:37,800 on Baseball Saffant and they I think they added this this year because I don't 654 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,719 really recall seeing it before, but maybe they did. I don't want to 655 00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:45,920 say that they didn't. But they've got this area on the homer and leader 656 00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:49,639 board where obviously it'll tell you like the expected stats on the players and stuff, 657 00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:55,000 but it'll tell you no doubters, doubters and mostly gone in parks, 658 00:45:55,519 --> 00:46:01,000 and six of his homers were registered as doubters where they would have only been 659 00:46:01,079 --> 00:46:07,920 homers in one to seven ballparks in baseball. So that's six of them fifteen 660 00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,880 And by the way, it expands this because these crossover a little bit. 661 00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:17,000 Fifteen homers were registered between like mostly gone between eight and twenty nine parks, 662 00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:22,079 and then three homers registered is like absolute no doubters in all parts all parts. 663 00:46:22,079 --> 00:46:27,400 So three homers were absolute no doubters, but six were in that that 664 00:46:27,519 --> 00:46:29,800 might not go. That's all I'm saying is like, if he goes to 665 00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,320 a hitter friendly environment, all right, maybe you know his ability to pull 666 00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,920 the ball, and he doesn't strike out a bunch, he doesn't chase, 667 00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,960 and he's you know, making good contact, you're just gonna get yourself into 668 00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:43,920 some homers. But if you were to be traded into a bad situation when 669 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,960 you're not in a friendly hitter friendly environment. I think his homers can be 670 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,840 pretty volatile and not to be counted on. Like I don't look at Hastin 671 00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,800 Kim and go if that's a guy, if he could hit twenty five, 672 00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,360 now he's elite. I don't think that's possible. Maybe if he goes to 673 00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:58,239 Cincinnati it's a different situation, but just you know, kind of keep that 674 00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:00,920 in. Have to be pretty specific. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So 675 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:05,239 like I look at this range like Nico and Hassem Kim specifically as players like 676 00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:08,440 I might be a little might be a little fadie on you guys can decide 677 00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:13,400 for yourselves. Also inside the top one hundred, So this now takes us 678 00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,840 into the next tier where we're outside the top one hundred and a little spoiler 679 00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,400 alert, this is a guy in the ranks, you know, in the 680 00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,760 off in a couple months when we talk about we're both gonna like this is 681 00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,360 a guy that I think is on the other side of this. Labor Torres 682 00:47:25,679 --> 00:47:30,840 Labor Torres two seventy three batting average, hit twenty five homers, ninety run, 683 00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:36,400 sixty eight RBI an stole thirteen bases this past year for the Yankees and 684 00:47:37,199 --> 00:47:38,960 a couple things that I like you had noted here. He had some big 685 00:47:39,199 --> 00:47:43,719 first second half splits two fifty one in the first half, hit three h 686 00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:47,119 two in the second half, And as I was going through, I fell 687 00:47:47,159 --> 00:47:52,920 in love with the idea of him completely changing his profile bogs and the thing 688 00:47:52,079 --> 00:47:55,719 he did like a Cody Bellinger where he was like a mid twenty most k 689 00:47:55,880 --> 00:48:00,400 guy, and all of a sudden he dropped that strikeout right down to fourteen 690 00:48:00,519 --> 00:48:07,519 point six percent, a massive drop and in that and I think a lot 691 00:48:07,559 --> 00:48:12,199 of that had to do with his approach to sliders. In twenty twenty two, 692 00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:17,960 he was swinging at twenty five percent and thirty three percent in the middle 693 00:48:19,039 --> 00:48:22,119 of the outside quadrant of the zone. So if you, you know, 694 00:48:22,159 --> 00:48:24,400 you look at the like it's like four four four four, they're all stacked 695 00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:29,079 on top of each other. If you take the outside two middle ones, 696 00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:31,679 you know, so that's the middle of the zone. He was swinging at 697 00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:37,079 a lot of that stuff on sliders, as was slider specifically, he lowered 698 00:48:37,119 --> 00:48:42,199 that this year to thirteen percent and twenty percent in those same quadrants. So 699 00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:45,519 that's saying he's just saying, Nope, I'm not gonna be swinging at inches 700 00:48:45,559 --> 00:48:51,199 in that zone. I'm laying off more. He lowered his overall strikeout rate 701 00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:57,679 versus sliders from twenty four point one percent in twenty twenty two to ten percent 702 00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,679 ten point six percent this paslast year. And I say all of this, 703 00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:05,519 you can be like, okay, whatever, but like doesn't have like lefty 704 00:49:05,559 --> 00:49:08,400 righty split issues two eighty three to two seventy three. He doesn't have home 705 00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:14,679 road splits. He hit two seventy three and two seventy four this past year 706 00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,880 with an improvement in the second half. Getting to your pitches, not letting 707 00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:22,880 sliders beat you. All of those things get me excited because then you can 708 00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,760 also stare at him. When you're looking at the upper echelon of hitters in 709 00:49:25,800 --> 00:49:30,679 this area, what are we looking for? Oh, hard hit gets guys 710 00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:36,079 to be a bit more sustainable. Barrel rate shows the ability to get quality 711 00:49:36,159 --> 00:49:39,719 hits well. He had the fourth best hard hit rate of qualified second basement. 712 00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:45,159 He had an expected batting average that was better than his actual average, 713 00:49:45,159 --> 00:49:50,119 a two point eighty expected batting average on the year, and he had the 714 00:49:50,159 --> 00:49:54,920 second best expected slug of any second basement. Mookie Betts is the only one 715 00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:59,559 with the better. So you had a better expected slug, a better expected 716 00:49:59,559 --> 00:50:02,039 batting app average, one of the best hard hit you stop striking out, 717 00:50:02,519 --> 00:50:07,480 stop me here, But like, those are some positive signs on glabor Torres. 718 00:50:07,559 --> 00:50:10,119 Man, I mean, it's not gonna calm down here. We couldn't. 719 00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:14,320 Welsh and I were so excited to talk about labor Torres after diving in. 720 00:50:14,559 --> 00:50:15,639 We couldn't keep it in our pants. We talked about him for like 721 00:50:15,679 --> 00:50:21,400 five minutes before we even hit record here. So but just looking at the 722 00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:24,119 big you mentioned all the slider stuff. That was what excited you about him, 723 00:50:24,159 --> 00:50:29,159 And look, this is one of the biggest improvements in his game. 724 00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,480 And not only did it work for him in the first half, but it 725 00:50:32,519 --> 00:50:36,719 got better in the second half. You just mentioned how much better he got 726 00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:38,719 in the second half. Two fifty one in the first half, three to 727 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:44,159 ho two in the second half. The dude had a great season. And 728 00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:49,239 if he is going to keep adding and keep improving for a little bit here, 729 00:50:49,679 --> 00:50:52,280 I mean, he could easily move himself into the next tier. He's 730 00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:57,119 a way safer hitter than Horner and Kim, but he you know, those 731 00:50:57,119 --> 00:51:00,280 stolen bases are so valuable from those guys, which is they're going so much 732 00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,800 higher, But I don't know. I think by the time we get home, 733 00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:07,920 while we're sitting in March, I think Labor is going to be in 734 00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:14,800 that same range. He's going to be up with Horner and Kim, and 735 00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:19,039 then he's kinda kind of leave these guys a little bit behind because when people 736 00:51:19,079 --> 00:51:21,519 dig in a little bit more, they're going to see that he made these 737 00:51:21,519 --> 00:51:24,000 massive improvements and his stock is going to go up. So if you're buying 738 00:51:24,039 --> 00:51:28,480 now, great, but his price is going to rise as people dig in. 739 00:51:28,559 --> 00:51:30,119 I do agree with this. I think it's going to change. He's 740 00:51:30,159 --> 00:51:34,280 gonna rise pending when people are listening to this. As people dig in, 741 00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:37,480 there's going to be a lot of the stuff that everyone's gonna love. The 742 00:51:37,519 --> 00:51:40,159 price will rise. I would in Dynasty. He's still young enough. I 743 00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:45,440 love him as a bye right now. I think there's some excitement built around 744 00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:46,519 it, and I think a lot of people are going to follow with it. 745 00:51:46,599 --> 00:51:50,199 But just you know, letting you know that we're kind of excited about 746 00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:53,000 it. Bryson Stott next up on the list, because we are in the 747 00:51:53,039 --> 00:51:58,239 post one hundred and eighty p's of NFBC right now, and Bryson stock came 748 00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:01,039 in next. He finished the year fifth teen homers, thirty one stolen bases 749 00:52:01,039 --> 00:52:05,920 while hitting two eighty. He had seventy eight runs, sixty two RBI, 750 00:52:06,639 --> 00:52:09,840 and kind of a wonky over the place. He had a really bad expected 751 00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:15,400 wOBA but a phenomenal expected batting average. So what do you want to throw 752 00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:19,199 out about Bryson Stott? Yeah, I mean he is like you said, 753 00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,360 he's he's interesting because there's no big flaws one way or the other. He 754 00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,920 doesn't hit the ball hard a two hundred and thirty nine out of two hundred 755 00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:30,199 and fifty eight in max exit Velo. But I don't really care he hit 756 00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:34,239 fifteen homers. I mean, I wouldn't want to see him hitting in a 757 00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:37,360 different ballpark than Citizen Bank. But the thirty one stolen bases in the two 758 00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:40,920 eity batting average plus the runs in RBI he can put up in that good 759 00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:45,559 Phillies lineup. That's why you're buying him. You're not buying him for bombs, 760 00:52:45,679 --> 00:52:47,599 they're great. If you get him, fine, You're buying him for 761 00:52:47,639 --> 00:52:52,719 the average in the steels. I would say he's better than most second baseman. 762 00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:57,480 So obviously he's going to be pretty high, but I don't know if 763 00:52:57,519 --> 00:53:00,039 he is. I don't know, is there is their meat on the bone, 764 00:53:00,039 --> 00:53:05,639 Welsh gonna is he gonna improve? He's young, there's meat on the 765 00:53:05,679 --> 00:53:08,000 bone. Projections don't feel it. You know. One thing I'm gonna point 766 00:53:08,039 --> 00:53:09,760 out, I think, and I'll say this is probably a lot of this 767 00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:14,800 offseason. I think projections just still are not caught up to like where stolen 768 00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:19,079 bases are gonna because like everybody is projected for lower stolen bases, so maybe 769 00:53:19,119 --> 00:53:22,320 that'll be the case. But it's pretty aggressively. Everything else is pretty in 770 00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:27,719 line. Batting average is a little bit lower. I don't know to your 771 00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,519 point, if there's gonna be like any real growth. One thing I love 772 00:53:30,599 --> 00:53:35,119 about him is bat speed. I think there's incredible bat speed. He can 773 00:53:35,159 --> 00:53:38,599 definitely do some of what we've talked about with some of these players where it's 774 00:53:38,639 --> 00:53:42,239 like, oh, this guy has a heavy pole rate would low this and 775 00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:45,679 that he hasn't done that yet. So that's where there could be your proverbial 776 00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:47,519 meat on the bone. Thirty five percent hard hit rate with a four percent 777 00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:52,760 barrel rate, that's not great. Double digit launch angle ten that's decent. 778 00:53:52,079 --> 00:53:57,079 Only a thirty three percent pole rate. That's that's really low. So with 779 00:53:57,239 --> 00:53:59,719 his bad speed, if he wants to, you could start trying to pull 780 00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:02,400 the ball a little bit more. I will tell you one note that I 781 00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:05,679 really liked as far as the type of hitter that he is. This is 782 00:54:05,679 --> 00:54:08,800 another one of those low strikeout guys. Of the of the pitches he saw 783 00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:14,199 ten percent or more of the time, he had an expected batting average of 784 00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:19,039 two sixty five or better on all of them. That includes change ups, 785 00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:23,159 which changeups are typically a pitch that most hitters do not hit well and withff 786 00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:28,880 rates go through the roof on two sixty five expected batting average or higher on 787 00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,199 all of them. So you know, you get more hits, better batting 788 00:54:31,199 --> 00:54:35,119 average, you pull the ball a little bit more. Maybe you could get 789 00:54:35,159 --> 00:54:37,760 Bryson to be a twenty thirty guy that he's on the table, But I 790 00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,719 kind of think, you know, post one hundred, that's a guy you 791 00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:44,400 should be taking a look at, especially when I don't know if there'll be 792 00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,320 that much of a difference between guys like Hassan Kim and him, even though 793 00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:52,199 there is a big draft capital difference right, And I would rather give me 794 00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:59,360 fifteen to eighteen homers in that Philly lineup with thirty stolen bases than like nine 795 00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,440 homers and forty stolen bases with the Cubs and Nico Horner, Like, I'll 796 00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:06,679 take the shot on a stot, I think, uh, maybe a little 797 00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:10,679 bit more, but especially for the price ranky stuff, this one I think 798 00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,880 is another one of those maybe not caught up. He could be in the 799 00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:17,239 glabor Tords range. Could tell Marte twenty five homers, hit two seventy six 800 00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:22,000 ninety four runs, eighty two RBA, eight stolen bases this past year. 801 00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:27,960 And I'll add in here because in the playoffs, So that was what he 802 00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,000 finished in the regular season the playoffs. In the playoffs, he ended up 803 00:55:31,039 --> 00:55:36,480 having the most hits in the playoffs of any player. I know. That 804 00:55:36,519 --> 00:55:38,199 could be like, maybe not that impressive because he went to the World Series, 805 00:55:38,199 --> 00:55:43,559 but nobody had more hits. He set the uh you know, he 806 00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:47,280 set the AOL record for hit streak in the postseason as well. So twenty 807 00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:52,719 four hits, two homers, seven doubles, and three stolen bases in the 808 00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:57,039 playoffs added to all of that. So what do you got? What do 809 00:55:57,039 --> 00:56:00,280 you want to add on Marte. Well, I'm I'm kind of surprise that 810 00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:04,119 he's so far down here because of the great pisergreen that he had right like, 811 00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:08,599 So I'm a little surprised by that because I was obviously I always have 812 00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:12,360 liked Katel Marte, but in terms of fantasy, I want to know part 813 00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,840 of him last year because he does. While he doesn't miss games all the 814 00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:19,599 time, he played one hundred and fifty this year, one hundred and thirty 815 00:56:19,599 --> 00:56:22,800 seven last year, so he missed a little time ninety and twenty twenty one, 816 00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:28,840 he's always seems to be dragging around something or you know, maybe questionable 817 00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,440 to play tonight, Like, there's a lot of that with Katel. So 818 00:56:31,519 --> 00:56:35,559 he's banged up a lot, which annoys me. He also has some big 819 00:56:35,599 --> 00:56:38,480 splits lefty right, he splits three thirteen to two fifty nine and Home Road 820 00:56:38,519 --> 00:56:42,320 three zero three to two fifty. But the good news there is, while 821 00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:46,079 they're big, two fifty nine and two fifty are sustainable, so it's not 822 00:56:46,199 --> 00:56:51,199 like he's dropping down to some ridiculous number. It's it's just he does have 823 00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,920 some large splits. The negative the biggest negative one where I looked was he 824 00:56:54,960 --> 00:57:00,199 had the sixteenth biggest negative difference between his x slugging and slug four eighty five 825 00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:05,119 to four to twenty four, so that was pretty big. But he also 826 00:57:05,599 --> 00:57:10,199 had the ninth highest max exit velow in baseball last year, one hundred and 827 00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:14,880 seventeen point one miles per hour. So the power is there for him and 828 00:57:14,920 --> 00:57:20,320 he will hit bombs twenty five last year. You know, he's just not 829 00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,000 going to steal bases. He's going to be on the back end of some 830 00:57:22,079 --> 00:57:27,480 double steals. But in terms of him straight stealing bases, I think those 831 00:57:27,599 --> 00:57:30,880 days are mainly gone, even with the new rules. So maybe he'll improve 832 00:57:30,159 --> 00:57:35,000 on that next year if he's feeling a little healthier. I think because he 833 00:57:35,039 --> 00:57:37,599 plays banged up a lot, Tory doesn't like running him that much. Yeah, 834 00:57:37,599 --> 00:57:39,679 that might be the case, just don't do it. A couple things 835 00:57:39,679 --> 00:57:44,599 I'll adds something I wrote up here. You're right about the home road splits, 836 00:57:44,639 --> 00:57:49,559 but one positive. He maintained a two hundred ISO regardless of the fifty 837 00:57:49,599 --> 00:57:52,119 point drop on the road. So on the road he only hit two fifty, 838 00:57:52,159 --> 00:57:54,880 but he still had a two hundred plus ISO. So while you said 839 00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:59,800 that's maintainable, it is maintainable because the power numbers were still out out. 840 00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:02,719 There also an interesting thing with him as well. He had one bad month 841 00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:07,400 this year where he hit one seventy nine in August, but hit three hundred 842 00:58:07,519 --> 00:58:13,320 plus in May, June, July, and then he hit two ninety nine 843 00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,840 in September. I thought that was really interesting. And then one other thing 844 00:58:16,559 --> 00:58:22,920 was the change to finally getting Corby and Carroll. Hitting at the one spot 845 00:58:22,199 --> 00:58:28,840 was big. In ninety nine games hitting two, tel Marte hit nineteen of 846 00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:32,599 his twenty five homers, So in only ninety nine games, nineteen of twenty 847 00:58:32,599 --> 00:58:38,119 five homers with sixty five runs in sixty one RBI. Just saying if he 848 00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:42,840 was hitting two, not saying they will do that. Tory tinkers and they 849 00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,639 might do lefties, they might want to hit him lead off and whatnot. 850 00:58:45,639 --> 00:58:47,280 But if he were hitting two, you could kind of play around with that 851 00:58:47,280 --> 00:58:52,360 and extrapolate. You might start toying around with one hundred hundred and bigger home 852 00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:57,199 run numbers. There's always a big Max Ev. He's a little bit streaky, 853 00:58:57,239 --> 00:59:00,559 but the streakiness kind of went more away, and I think this offense 854 00:59:00,639 --> 00:59:02,519 help. So I don't know, we've talked about a deal. We've talked 855 00:59:02,559 --> 00:59:06,000 about some of these guys moving up and down. If you had to pick 856 00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:09,800 a direction for him from where he's at now, up to you just it's 857 00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:13,239 all up. Oh yeah, I had him quite a bit up when I 858 00:59:13,239 --> 00:59:16,840 was starting to do the right I think this actual range so far that the 859 00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:20,440 three players we've talked about in this tier are ups. I don't know if 860 00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:23,400 the last two in this tier are actual ups. For me. These are 861 00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:28,480 the last guys before you get outside the top one fifty. You've got Andros 862 00:59:28,519 --> 00:59:31,719 Jimenez. Fifteen homers, thirty stolen bases, he hit two fifty one this 863 00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:37,119 past year, seventy six runs, seventy sixty two RBI. Any quick notes 864 00:59:37,159 --> 00:59:42,320 you want to throw on Andros Jimenez because he's another one of those stolen base 865 00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:45,519 chasis, kind of like if you don't want if you wanted Nico and miss 866 00:59:45,559 --> 00:59:47,880 him, you're probably going to be somebody that targets Andres Jimenez. Yeah. 867 00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:52,719 I think he's the worst version of you know, Nico and Kim and those 868 00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:57,880 guys. Third worst average exit Vilo in baseball eighty four point eight miles per 869 00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,920 hour, only Jake Freeley in his story Ruik or worse than him in average 870 01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:06,239 exit v low and he's two forty nine to two point fifty eight in hard 871 01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:09,239 hit percentage with only twenty seven percent of his hits being hard. So that's 872 01:00:09,239 --> 01:00:12,920 not great. You know, you're buying him for the swipes, That's what 873 01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,599 it is. Because his zaccass numbers are blue all over the place. They're 874 01:00:15,599 --> 01:00:21,000 not like bottomed out. They're not so bad. But he's like bottom thirty 875 01:00:21,079 --> 01:00:25,760 six percent and expected batting average he is average exitvlow. He's bad. And 876 01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:30,400 the hard hit percentage he's bottoming out. Barrel percentage is bottom twenty two percent, 877 01:00:31,239 --> 01:00:36,519 chase percentage is bad. Walk percentage is not good either. Although he's 878 01:00:36,559 --> 01:00:38,159 not striking out a ton, he is putting the ball in play for his 879 01:00:38,199 --> 01:00:42,320 speed, which is nice. He's just to me, he's just the worst 880 01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:44,880 version of those other guys that we've already talked. Yeah, I think there's 881 01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:49,639 some stuff on the stolen base front. This is kind of interesting. He 882 01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:54,000 attempted only eight stolen bases against lefties in ninety nine games, where he had 883 01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:59,159 attempted twenty eight stolen bases against right handers in one hundred and thirty nine games. 884 01:00:59,159 --> 01:01:00,559 Now, I know that's be like, Okay, well you're gonna steal 885 01:01:00,599 --> 01:01:05,320 more. But when you go and look at more premium like stolen base guys, 886 01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:09,400 that's a bigger number. Like he really doesn't feel comfortable running against lefties, 887 01:01:09,519 --> 01:01:13,760 and the success rate is quite a bit lower. So I thought that 888 01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:17,239 stood out. Also, I just don't trust the bat enough. He had 889 01:01:17,639 --> 01:01:22,559 a forty percent chase rate, which I don't think you can quite understand or 890 01:01:22,639 --> 01:01:25,559 you would think about when you look at his profile, and you know, 891 01:01:25,599 --> 01:01:30,639 a lot of these like low hard hit guys, what they'll do is you'll 892 01:01:30,719 --> 01:01:32,480 if you go and like peek at the pitch mix and stuff, they'll make 893 01:01:32,559 --> 01:01:36,519 up for it by like hitting really well against fastballs. Maybe they like really 894 01:01:36,519 --> 01:01:38,320 stink against you know, like cutters and sliders, and it's bad hard hit 895 01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:42,840 percentages. But all of a sudden a guy has like forty five percent against 896 01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:49,880 fastballs. That's not the case with Amenez. Amenez had no single pitch that 897 01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:53,960 he hit that registered higher than a thirty three percent hard hit rate. That 898 01:01:54,320 --> 01:02:00,920 stinks and against fastballs getting to an average, he hit two seventy six. 899 01:02:00,199 --> 01:02:06,400 Hadn't expected two twenty eight average against fastballs so he doesn't hit off speed hard, 900 01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:10,599 he doesn't anything hard, and he well well overperformed against fastballs. I 901 01:02:10,639 --> 01:02:14,880 just don't like it. I don't trust it. I think it's minimal power 902 01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:17,800 numbers. I think the stolen bases might be wonky, and I don't trust 903 01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:22,079 the higher batting average. I would rather Nico than him. You said it 904 01:02:22,119 --> 01:02:25,800 best. He's the worst version of Nico Horner and he's gonna costa top one 905 01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:30,880 fifty. And then the final one is Zach Geloff, who hit fourteen homers, 906 01:02:30,159 --> 01:02:36,360 stole fourteen bases in sixty nine games, hit two sixty seven, and 907 01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:37,920 was kind of the big talk of the town. What do you got on 908 01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:42,880 Geloff? I mean, look, I big lefty, right, he splits 909 01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:46,280 one sixty seven to three zero three home away were huge as well, two 910 01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:51,079 ninety six to two thirty seven. But what I keep looking at here, 911 01:02:51,519 --> 01:02:54,199 and it's dangerous to do this, especially in a guy that's in such a 912 01:02:54,199 --> 01:03:00,159 bad lineup. I mean, Oakland is so bad, right, but you 913 01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:05,320 put these Triple A numbers and major league numbers from last year together, and 914 01:03:05,360 --> 01:03:08,760 we're looking at like a two eighty hitter with twenty six homers and thirty four 915 01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:14,679 swipes. Obviously runs an RBI are low because the a's are bad. Uh, 916 01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:19,320 But I mean, I don't know, I'd rather have him much more 917 01:03:19,599 --> 01:03:23,079 than Andres Jimenez. Well, to add to your point real quick, Yeah, 918 01:03:23,119 --> 01:03:29,320 when you saw extrapolating those he if he had qualified, he his Uh, 919 01:03:29,360 --> 01:03:31,880 these metrics would have finished top ten a the position, eleven point one 920 01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:37,440 percent barrel rate, forty point seven percent hard hit rate, five zero four 921 01:03:37,559 --> 01:03:40,360 slugging, and a four to thirty three expected slugging. So that's a big 922 01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:45,400 difference between expected and actual slugging. But all of those would have been top 923 01:03:45,480 --> 01:03:49,559 ten at second base. And and by the way, his first three months, 924 01:03:49,599 --> 01:03:52,679 like uh, you know, July he came in, he only played 925 01:03:52,679 --> 01:03:55,159 fourteen games, but he only hit two eighteen in that initial fourteen games. 926 01:03:55,159 --> 01:04:00,199 But in August he played twenty seven games and hit too eighty six, and 927 01:04:00,239 --> 01:04:03,760 then he hit two seventy three in that final month. Not that this is 928 01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:08,639 enough of the sample size to say that he is ready and he's not going 929 01:04:08,719 --> 01:04:12,079 to be streaky and all that stuff. He definitely is being so young and 930 01:04:12,159 --> 01:04:15,320 having these enormous splits that he has. But at least when he got a 931 01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:18,880 little adjusted on. He met it, and he matched it, and he 932 01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:23,960 was still able to keep the bat playable. So uh yeah, I mean 933 01:04:24,039 --> 01:04:28,800 I think I like gel Off a decent amount. I think this price is 934 01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:31,320 very fair for him, And I mean I don't I wouldn't take him over 935 01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,760 Martestat or Torrez or anybody else, but I would definitely put him ahead of 936 01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:39,760 him as Yeah, I think there's there's still some implied risk with him. 937 01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:43,840 I don't know if I think there's difference between like what you take and what 938 01:04:43,880 --> 01:04:48,280 you ultimately target. Projections twenty homers nineteen stolen bases with a two thirty eight 939 01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:53,440 average. That is early Steamer projections, and I think what that's telling you 940 01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:57,119 in line is like, don't build in for crazy, crazy, bigger, 941 01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:00,639 you know, bigger production. But sure, I worry about the strikeout rate. 942 01:05:00,719 --> 01:05:05,480 The chase rate actually wasn't insane twenty eight point nine percent, which is 943 01:05:05,519 --> 01:05:09,960 still high, but like we saw, I told you Andersimenez was forty, 944 01:05:10,199 --> 01:05:12,599 so that was a much higher chase rate. I don't know. I think 945 01:05:12,639 --> 01:05:16,960 he's volatile, and I think these systems are building in where the bottom line 946 01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:23,320 is. I would say I think twenty twenty is a safe floor. But 947 01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:28,760 there is the upside of him being a two sixty hitter and going thirty thirty's. 948 01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:31,440 That's what is possible here with especially like I told you, there's hard 949 01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:34,920 hit and barrel numbers that support it. So I think that's where we're sitting 950 01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:39,280 there. The next year we're gonna start grouping in. This is the one 951 01:05:39,440 --> 01:05:43,719 fifty essentially one fifty to two hundred, and I'm gonna just list them out 952 01:05:43,719 --> 01:05:48,760 here. Thyro Strata two seventy one, fourteen homers, twenty three stolen bases, 953 01:05:48,800 --> 01:05:53,960 with sixty three runs and forty nine RBI over one hundred and twenty games. 954 01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:57,239 So you could play around with numbers, maybe getting to eighteen twenty five. 955 01:05:57,280 --> 01:05:59,719 That's pretty good, but you gotta pay for him. This year Tom 956 01:06:00,079 --> 01:06:03,880 Tommy Edmond he hit two forty eight, thirteen homers, only twenty seven stolen 957 01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:08,960 bases, only thirteen homers, sixty nine runs, forty seven RBI within only 958 01:06:09,079 --> 01:06:14,199 three hundred OBP. Also, Luisa Rise, who everybody's been waiting for. 959 01:06:14,280 --> 01:06:16,840 He's amazing everybody, He is amazing. He's an amazing hitter. He had 960 01:06:16,880 --> 01:06:20,960 three point fifty four it's absurd, but he had ten homers, which I 961 01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:25,400 mean that is impressive. He got there. Three stolen bases, seventy one 962 01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:29,360 run, sixty nine RBI, a three ninety three OBP, so only like 963 01:06:29,440 --> 01:06:34,119 forty spots higher, you know, top one hundred percentile in SBI. He's 964 01:06:34,519 --> 01:06:36,639 get through the rest. And I'll talk about Louise. Yeah, well let's 965 01:06:36,639 --> 01:06:40,119 stop. Let's stop at these three. Actually we'll stop at these three here, 966 01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:44,519 Estrada, Edmund and a Rise. Look, Estrada is you know, 967 01:06:44,599 --> 01:06:46,559 he's built just like those other guys. He's not hitting the ball hard two 968 01:06:46,639 --> 01:06:49,480 hundred and forty six out of two hundred and fifty eight in average exit v 969 01:06:49,559 --> 01:06:55,760 low, but he keeps a batting average decent two seventy one last year, 970 01:06:56,360 --> 01:07:00,360 fourteen bombs, twenty three stolen bases. At the they're not sexy. I 971 01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:05,119 don't expect improvement at much at all. But it's playable, right, That 972 01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:10,760 is what thyrostrata is. So it's kind of like once you get away from 973 01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:14,199 those other top guys that we talked about, that top twelve, everyone is 974 01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:18,239 kind of conditional. Thyro's is that he probably not gonna improve. This is 975 01:07:18,239 --> 01:07:20,639 what you're gonna get from him. What you see is what you get he's 976 01:07:20,719 --> 01:07:25,599 kind of basic to me. Tommy Edmund is fine. I mean, I'm 977 01:07:25,639 --> 01:07:28,400 not same deal. You know, I'm not expecting a lot from him. 978 01:07:28,719 --> 01:07:31,360 You're buying him for solen bases and whatever power you get, and you hope 979 01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:34,639 he keeps that batting average playable two forty eight, little lower than we want. 980 01:07:35,239 --> 01:07:40,760 But Luisa Rise is a conditional guy because he's just a stop gap. 981 01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:45,320 Like he he is a guy if you've drafted too many dead weights at batting 982 01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:49,199 average, you have to stick him in there. But you're not getting stuff 983 01:07:49,199 --> 01:07:54,199 from him. It's just the batting average, not getting homers. Your runs 984 01:07:54,239 --> 01:07:58,519 are fine, RBI. He's not an albatross. There's an albatross's soolen base 985 01:07:59,360 --> 01:08:02,679 versus pretty much everyone. That's not gonna tell Marte at this position. So 986 01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:06,760 you know, he drags you down in other spots, but he raises that 987 01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:10,519 average so much for you. He is still a good player. But I 988 01:08:10,559 --> 01:08:15,280 think he's appropriately valued. You'd think with such a good bat that he would 989 01:08:15,320 --> 01:08:18,079 be much higher than this, but this is exactly where he belongs. Yeah, 990 01:08:18,079 --> 01:08:23,159 and all three of these guys, they're just you know, bottom tier 991 01:08:23,319 --> 01:08:28,600 expected ISO, bottom barrel percentage. Some of the worst hard hit that's out 992 01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:33,239 there. They also don't walk a whole bunch either. It's tough to put 993 01:08:33,239 --> 01:08:38,520 a lot of projection out on any of them. Edmund and Estrada are kind 994 01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:42,840 of the stolen based guys with some position flexibility. Arise is an elite, 995 01:08:43,199 --> 01:08:45,800 elite batting average player. But you know, my argument always is like, 996 01:08:45,880 --> 01:08:49,039 that's great, but he just is kind of like you said, albatross at 997 01:08:49,079 --> 01:08:53,439 the other spots on the inverse. These next three guys in this same tier, 998 01:08:54,159 --> 01:08:58,600 these are more of the power bats. Jonathan India seventeen homers, seventy 999 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,800 eight runs, hitting two forty two forty four with fourteen stolen bases and only 1000 01:09:01,840 --> 01:09:06,239 one hundred and nineteen games he missed some time. Nolan Gorman, who I 1001 01:09:06,239 --> 01:09:11,039 think registers, is like the number one barrel, number one hard hit second 1002 01:09:11,079 --> 01:09:16,000 baseman, twenty seven homers, seven stolen bases, only two thirty six batting 1003 01:09:16,039 --> 01:09:19,680 average, also in one hundred and nineteen games. And then finally Edward Julian 1004 01:09:20,159 --> 01:09:25,840 two sixty three, sixteen homers, sixty runs, only thirty seven RBI with 1005 01:09:25,920 --> 01:09:31,119 a three eighty one OBP huge obb OBP bump. And these guys are all 1006 01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:38,800 high expected wOBA higher expected slugging expected ISO's in there. Barrel percentage is in 1007 01:09:38,840 --> 01:09:44,319 there, But specifically Nolan Gorman here ninety seventh percentile barrel percentage, he is 1008 01:09:44,520 --> 01:09:50,439 nineteenth in baseball. Yeah, ninetieth percentile expected slug is out there, and 1009 01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:55,920 he hit twenty seven homers. And I think when you go to baseball Savanna, 1010 01:09:55,920 --> 01:09:58,239 I'll do it real quick. I think he's at the tippy top of 1011 01:09:58,319 --> 01:10:02,920 barrel's per plate appearance, or maybe he doesn't let me take off nineteen here 1012 01:10:03,079 --> 01:10:06,760 in base was nineteenth on here, Yeah, out of two hundred fifteen twentieth, 1013 01:10:06,800 --> 01:10:12,279 I see a twentieth. Yeah, nineteen point three or nine point three 1014 01:10:12,359 --> 01:10:15,960 barrels per played appearance for him, So I guess that's not in that dreams. 1015 01:10:16,039 --> 01:10:19,720 But the thing is is this is a massive, big power hitter who 1016 01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:25,399 found early positive batting average signs and then it kind of tapered off with that 1017 01:10:25,439 --> 01:10:29,039 whole high fastball stuff. The league adjusted to him. But he is like 1018 01:10:29,119 --> 01:10:33,439 of projection's biggest power hitter. I think you could project at this position that 1019 01:10:34,199 --> 01:10:36,800 not if he did it consistently, it might be a whole nother ballgame. 1020 01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:41,039 But like if the dude hit two sixty. He's probably hitting thirty five homers 1021 01:10:41,159 --> 01:10:44,560 that second. Yeah, and this is kind of you know, I think 1022 01:10:44,600 --> 01:10:47,840 what we're seeing in where these guys are being drafted in an FBC, right, 1023 01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:53,239 because Thiro's one forty six, then we got one fifty eight for Edmund 1024 01:10:53,239 --> 01:10:57,119 one sixty two and Arise. These numbers have changed obviously a little bit because 1025 01:10:57,359 --> 01:11:01,199 drafts have happened since I put them in. But and then India Gorman and 1026 01:11:01,439 --> 01:11:06,039 Julian being lower, it's because what are you buying at the position? Right? 1027 01:11:06,399 --> 01:11:12,000 You've waited to get your second basement. So most people who have waited 1028 01:11:12,039 --> 01:11:15,159 and filled in at other spots now they're looking for stolen bases. And you 1029 01:11:15,239 --> 01:11:20,680 see Thyro and Edmund up there, they're fine. Other people have bad batting 1030 01:11:20,720 --> 01:11:27,159 average. Luisa rises a stop gap for that, and then India Gorman and 1031 01:11:27,239 --> 01:11:30,119 Julian, if you're buying them here at second base, to me, you 1032 01:11:30,199 --> 01:11:33,880 have to already have your stolen bases pretty much sealed. Maybe you're getting you 1033 01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:38,000 know, maybe you get a little extra at first or third or in the 1034 01:11:38,000 --> 01:11:41,279 outfield, whatever it is. And now you're going, okay, well, 1035 01:11:41,279 --> 01:11:44,439 I'm just gonna take one of these upside hitters, because I think on most 1036 01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:46,279 of my teams, I would much rather have, you know, the risk 1037 01:11:46,359 --> 01:11:50,199 of India seems like he's gone right right, He's getting traded at some point 1038 01:11:50,319 --> 01:11:55,520 this offseason. The upside on Gorman, the upside in Julian, I think 1039 01:11:55,560 --> 01:12:00,760 I'd rather take the risk on those bats. But the Scarcy stolen and having 1040 01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:04,159 to have them specifically at this position where most guys have them, make Thyro 1041 01:12:04,760 --> 01:12:09,279 and Edmund go higher and draft, but I feel like I'd rather have those 1042 01:12:09,279 --> 01:12:13,279 bottom three guys. So if I'm at this point and I feel okay about 1043 01:12:13,279 --> 01:12:15,920 my solen bases, I definitely want one of those bottom three guys in this 1044 01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:19,319 year versus the top guys, because I think you're gonna get more overall production 1045 01:12:19,359 --> 01:12:27,840 from In the projections, no player is projected to hit more homers in less 1046 01:12:27,880 --> 01:12:32,239 games than Nolan Gorman, so specifically, in under one hundred and fifteen games, 1047 01:12:32,279 --> 01:12:35,560 he's the only one to be projected to hit over twenty. He's projected 1048 01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:40,600 to hit twenty five on Steamer, which would be tied for six best, 1049 01:12:40,640 --> 01:12:45,600 while hitting two forty six in only one hundred and thirteen games. They're projecting 1050 01:12:45,760 --> 01:12:48,800 labor Torres twenty five and one hundred and forty nine. Every player above him 1051 01:12:49,279 --> 01:12:54,640 is projected one hundred and forty one or more games, So you know, 1052 01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:57,720 if he were to have a full season, you start to play that game, 1053 01:12:58,119 --> 01:13:01,119 you can see the over thirty marker. I'll tell you though, Edward 1054 01:13:01,199 --> 01:13:04,479 Julian is kind of the guy that I'm probably going to be targeting. He 1055 01:13:04,520 --> 01:13:09,720 was really interesting. Thirteen point one percent barrel rate, forty four point nine 1056 01:13:09,760 --> 01:13:13,560 percent hard hit rate, ranked inside the top five at the position had he 1057 01:13:13,640 --> 01:13:16,560 qualified. He also had a really high wOBA, though his expected batting average 1058 01:13:16,600 --> 01:13:24,159 was low. Thirty one point four percent strikeout rate, absolute rate absolutely garbage, 1059 01:13:24,279 --> 01:13:30,920 second worst at the position, but fourteen point one percent chase rate the 1060 01:13:30,920 --> 01:13:34,800 best at top one hundred percent tile in baseball. His problem he is being 1061 01:13:35,119 --> 01:13:40,439 way too selective and missing on pitches. So what I get into is I 1062 01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:45,640 go, that's a change that seems like a very quantifiable change. Huge barrel, 1063 01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:49,439 hard hit numbers, he has huge OBP numbers, but he is being 1064 01:13:49,640 --> 01:13:54,399 hyper selective to the middle of the zone. He does not swing inside and 1065 01:13:54,439 --> 01:13:57,680 outside. I looked at the zone chart inside and outside. That's not where 1066 01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:00,960 he's doing damage down the middle. He wants it in the middle, and 1067 01:14:00,000 --> 01:14:03,359 I think and he wants a fastball down the middle, or when he decides 1068 01:14:03,399 --> 01:14:08,000 he's chasing on a breaking pitch, he's getting eaten there. He's got to 1069 01:14:08,000 --> 01:14:11,159 stop keeping the bat on his shoulder, and I think that is a change 1070 01:14:11,199 --> 01:14:14,279 you can make. And if he does, I think Edward Julian has a 1071 01:14:14,359 --> 01:14:16,279 huge breakout and could be a thirty home run hitter. So that's why I'm 1072 01:14:16,359 --> 01:14:19,920 kind of into that. I really like him, but he is going to 1073 01:14:20,000 --> 01:14:23,399 have to hit lefties better to stay on there. Yeah, yeah, awful 1074 01:14:23,399 --> 01:14:27,640 against lefties. So about one ninety six. It's under two hundred two seventy 1075 01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:30,479 four against righties, which is great. Like most once again, most pitchers 1076 01:14:30,479 --> 01:14:34,159 are righty. So eighty five percent of euro at bats or seventy percent of 1077 01:14:34,199 --> 01:14:39,319 whatever it is, you know, normal baseball average, you're going to be 1078 01:14:39,439 --> 01:14:42,760 hitting against the righty. So you would much rather have the splits in favor 1079 01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:46,359 of hitting righties than hitting lefties. But when a lefty comes in Julian goes 1080 01:14:46,399 --> 01:14:49,279 out, he's going to be out of the lineup. So if he doesn't 1081 01:14:49,279 --> 01:14:54,399 improve this one ninety six, you know, he's maybe you leave him in 1082 01:14:54,399 --> 01:14:58,520 there because you like him so much to see if he can work through this. 1083 01:14:58,760 --> 01:15:00,560 You know, watch it in spring training, that kind of stuff. 1084 01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:03,039 I'm sure something he's working on in the offseason right now as we're speaking. 1085 01:15:03,279 --> 01:15:06,560 But he has to get better at hitting lefties or he won't have enough at 1086 01:15:06,600 --> 01:15:10,319 bats to hit those thirty. Yeah, I do agree with that. Platoon 1087 01:15:10,439 --> 01:15:14,079 is a big problem. So you do have the passiveness of such a weird 1088 01:15:14,119 --> 01:15:16,039 like chase rate versus strikeout rates one of the weirder ones I've seen. But 1089 01:15:16,119 --> 01:15:19,960 the lefty stuff is actually way more of a massive, massively bigger problem. 1090 01:15:20,159 --> 01:15:24,720 As you play baseball more and your pitch recognition goes up, that first thing 1091 01:15:24,760 --> 01:15:27,439 can be fixed. But like you got to learn how to hit lefties, 1092 01:15:27,439 --> 01:15:30,600 So hopefully that changes the guys in the two hundred range. I'm gonna kind 1093 01:15:30,640 --> 01:15:33,640 of do some'na. We're skimming at this point here because we're outside the top 1094 01:15:33,680 --> 01:15:40,199 two hundred. Ryan McMahon Brandon Drury, those are the two highest home run 1095 01:15:40,319 --> 01:15:43,920 hitters from last year that are outside the top two hundred. McMahon hit twenty 1096 01:15:43,960 --> 01:15:46,920 three, Brandon Jury actually hit twenty six and qualifies at second base with a 1097 01:15:46,960 --> 01:15:53,000 two sixty two batting average. Wit Merrifield came in around the two thirties. 1098 01:15:53,039 --> 01:15:56,560 He had twenty six dolen bases last year, kind of a refound year with 1099 01:15:56,640 --> 01:16:00,640 a two seventy two batting average. Ronnie Mauricio is one of the big prospects 1100 01:16:00,640 --> 01:16:03,560 to look at here. Two homers, seven stolen bases, but had twenty 1101 01:16:03,560 --> 01:16:08,479 three homers and twenty four stolen bases while hitting two ninety six. I think 1102 01:16:08,520 --> 01:16:12,119 it was a two ninety eight in the minors, so he struggled a little 1103 01:16:12,119 --> 01:16:15,439 bit, but he also put up a I believe it's like one seventeen point 1104 01:16:15,479 --> 01:16:18,239 three or one. He had one of the hardest hit balls in baseball in 1105 01:16:18,279 --> 01:16:23,079 that short period of time. But he's a massive chase rate guy. Brandon 1106 01:16:23,159 --> 01:16:27,960 Lau twenty one homers. He's a little bit volatile. He hit only two 1107 01:16:28,000 --> 01:16:30,760 thirty one and it doesn't look like that's changing any time time soon. Jorge 1108 01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:34,920 Polanco fourteen homers, four stolen bases, two fifty five. We didn't have 1109 01:16:34,960 --> 01:16:39,600 Gavin lux last year. He's going to be looks like an everyday shortstop for 1110 01:16:39,960 --> 01:16:43,399 the Dodgers unless they make another move. And then the last in the three 1111 01:16:43,479 --> 01:16:46,840 hundreds. E Leise Ring GIFO had sixteen homers with a two sixty four at 1112 01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:50,479 batting average, Brendan Donovan eleven homers, five stolen bases, hitting two eighty 1113 01:16:50,479 --> 01:16:55,840 four, and Jordan Westberg in sixty eight games had three homers, four stolen 1114 01:16:55,840 --> 01:17:00,720 bases, hitting two sixty names. We did not mention Jake and Worth has 1115 01:17:00,760 --> 01:17:05,640 fallen out, probably for rightful reason. Disgustingly bad. Yeah, mid Rosario 1116 01:17:05,760 --> 01:17:10,479 out, Miguel Vargas is out. There's a lot of names that are not 1117 01:17:10,520 --> 01:17:13,840 being bet on. But coming back here, any note you want to throw 1118 01:17:13,880 --> 01:17:16,880 out to that two hundred to three hundred second base range, Yeah, you 1119 01:17:16,880 --> 01:17:19,560 don't want to be picking him out of here, right. So, uh, 1120 01:17:19,920 --> 01:17:25,760 they're just not great options. Ryan McMahon is easily the one that I 1121 01:17:25,760 --> 01:17:29,199 would want out of this group, but he finished so bad. He had 1122 01:17:29,199 --> 01:17:31,560 big lefty righty splits one ninety one to two sixty, which, once again, 1123 01:17:31,560 --> 01:17:33,720 if you can't hit lefties, you're not gonna be on the field. 1124 01:17:34,079 --> 01:17:40,039 And his triple slash two eleven, two ninety seven, three seventy five in 1125 01:17:40,119 --> 01:17:43,199 the year was just not great. But you look at this font numbers, 1126 01:17:43,760 --> 01:17:46,000 they're better than pretty much everybody else in this group. Brandon Duriy had pretty 1127 01:17:46,000 --> 01:17:49,560 good ones too, but absolute albatross, zero solen bases, not sealing you 1128 01:17:49,600 --> 01:17:53,600 bases at all. He will hit you homers, which is fine, but 1129 01:17:54,039 --> 01:17:57,840 he is conditional in the fact that you have to have slen bases before you 1130 01:17:57,920 --> 01:18:00,439 draft him, because he will get you absolutely nothing thing, and they're becoming 1131 01:18:00,720 --> 01:18:04,760 more and more prevalent. Wits numbers were just not only were they bad, 1132 01:18:05,239 --> 01:18:11,399 but his underlying stuff was bad to two fifty one to two fifty eight in 1133 01:18:11,520 --> 01:18:14,920 max exit ve low, two hundred and fifty second of two and fifty eight 1134 01:18:15,159 --> 01:18:17,279 in hard hit percentage, two hundred and fiftieth in barrels per play. It 1135 01:18:17,319 --> 01:18:24,079 appearances eighteenth biggest negative difference between his batting average and X batting average. Same 1136 01:18:24,079 --> 01:18:29,159 thing with wOBA and x WOE. But it's just he's almost bottom ten percent 1137 01:18:29,239 --> 01:18:32,159 of like in every category except for whiffing, Like he just stopped striking yet 1138 01:18:32,279 --> 01:18:35,439 and he still stole twenty six bases. Yet he had eleven homers in twenty 1139 01:18:35,439 --> 01:18:39,319 sixtlen bases. I just want to point that out, that that is we 1140 01:18:39,399 --> 01:18:44,560 completely understand the difference between expected stats and actual production. It's more of a 1141 01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:47,239 trying. It's it's more of a predictor of what's going on under the hood. 1142 01:18:47,279 --> 01:18:51,119 It does not mean it is a foreseer. I mean, there's probably 1143 01:18:51,119 --> 01:18:56,920 a better word to use for that, a predictor. Right like he was 1144 01:18:56,720 --> 01:19:00,560 he was. It feels like he's playing with an injury. Like these numbers 1145 01:19:00,600 --> 01:19:02,840 are so bad, they're so unlike him. Remember this was a guy you 1146 01:19:02,880 --> 01:19:08,319 know a while ago that was going in top three rounds. Yeah, but 1147 01:19:08,039 --> 01:19:12,319 it's over. It is, it is over. But also I wouldn't be 1148 01:19:12,399 --> 01:19:15,319 surprised to see him improve these numbers a little bit. He's not gonna get 1149 01:19:15,359 --> 01:19:19,600 up back to second and third round ever, that's done. But he should 1150 01:19:19,640 --> 01:19:23,279 improve on these numbers if he was dealing with an injury or something. So 1151 01:19:23,359 --> 01:19:26,199 I don't know, maybe pay attention for that. This just doesn't feel right 1152 01:19:26,239 --> 01:19:28,359 for him at all, Like, yeah, he can't stay on the field 1153 01:19:28,359 --> 01:19:30,960 with these bad numbers. And as far as projections go, we'll point out 1154 01:19:30,960 --> 01:19:38,640 whit Mayfield is actually the sixth highest stolen base projected second basement with twenty one 1155 01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:42,079 this coming year, but no home So I don't know about that. Bryce 1156 01:19:42,159 --> 01:19:45,319 Terrang who he did not mention is projected ten homer twenty stolen base. He's 1157 01:19:45,359 --> 01:19:49,359 outside the top three hundred hitting two forty six. That would make and really 1158 01:19:49,399 --> 01:19:53,039 are taking him off because how many games do they have him playing one hundred 1159 01:19:53,079 --> 01:19:56,359 and twenty six. He played one hundred and thirty seven and had twenty six 1160 01:19:56,439 --> 01:19:59,880 last year, So yeah, so I mean that's sitting out there. Juwan 1161 01:20:00,279 --> 01:20:02,800 fifteen stolen bases as well, So I mean that's like if you're chasing late 1162 01:20:02,880 --> 01:20:06,800 stolen bases. We've kind of laid out some of the players. The best 1163 01:20:06,920 --> 01:20:13,800 late player is probably Brandon Laud to chase for homers. He's projected for the 1164 01:20:13,920 --> 01:20:16,560 ninth most homers at the position, and they're projecting a better batting average, 1165 01:20:16,600 --> 01:20:19,720 which I just don't see the story because I think he's hit like two thirty 1166 01:20:19,720 --> 01:20:24,560 two straight years and he's sad under two fifty for three straight years, so 1167 01:20:25,000 --> 01:20:27,960 I'm just not quite into that. He's pretty volatile. But that is the 1168 01:20:28,000 --> 01:20:30,079 second base position we spent. You know, sometimes in ranks, we did 1169 01:20:30,079 --> 01:20:33,279 the inverse where we lead up to one. The profiles are about giving you 1170 01:20:33,319 --> 01:20:36,960 and spending the most time on the top end, and that's why, you 1171 01:20:36,960 --> 01:20:43,319 know, I think We got through probably fifteen to sixteen of like real breakdowns 1172 01:20:43,359 --> 01:20:45,840 and then kind of getting quicker because that is how the approach should be. 1173 01:20:45,880 --> 01:20:49,439 Will there be sleepers, will they be breakouts, Yes, we will identify 1174 01:20:49,520 --> 01:20:55,079 them, But this is what the last year profile of these players are going 1175 01:20:55,159 --> 01:20:58,680 into this year with a little bit of projections as well. If you're gambling 1176 01:20:58,800 --> 01:21:03,039 on a prospect that hasn't touched the majors yet, who is that guy? 1177 01:21:03,159 --> 01:21:08,279 Who is that guy that can maybe either break camp or you don't care if 1178 01:21:08,279 --> 01:21:11,520 he breaks camp or not. He'll come in and put up some big numbers 1179 01:21:11,520 --> 01:21:14,239 once he gets up. Is there a guy at this position this year? 1180 01:21:14,279 --> 01:21:16,560 Because I noticed a lot of your top guys at second base, our guys 1181 01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:20,479 that were recently drafted in their acas until twenty five, twenty six, something 1182 01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:24,520 like that. Yeah, so this is so this is tricky. Positionally, 1183 01:21:24,600 --> 01:21:27,960 Yeah, because the only prospect like prospect prospect we really talked about was Ronnie 1184 01:21:28,000 --> 01:21:32,960 Mauricio. Positionally, and I'm saying this, here's a couple names you can 1185 01:21:33,000 --> 01:21:35,800 take a look at, and we'll probably talk about in ranks more. There's 1186 01:21:35,880 --> 01:21:40,760 I think Matt Shaw is a possibility with the Cubs, though Obviously, Nico 1187 01:21:40,800 --> 01:21:43,600 Horner's there. They can make some adjustments, but I wouldn't say that he's 1188 01:21:43,800 --> 01:21:47,960 not. Curtis Meade so qualifies at second base. That's another prospect that he 1189 01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:51,720 has made the majors. That's not answering your question. Here's one or two. 1190 01:21:53,199 --> 01:21:56,359 Ryan Bliss with the Seattle Mariners. I don't know if they would be 1191 01:21:56,359 --> 01:22:00,960 comfortable with it. Ryan Bliss came on a little bit later into the AFL. 1192 01:22:00,079 --> 01:22:02,439 He just played. He got traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners. 1193 01:22:02,439 --> 01:22:08,079 But he's coming off of a season where he hit three hundred with twenty three 1194 01:22:08,159 --> 01:22:14,279 homers and fifty five stolen bases, and in the playoffs of the aflheah, 1195 01:22:14,319 --> 01:22:18,359 he had a Grand Slam, Ryan Bliss. A possibility Tyler Black with the 1196 01:22:18,439 --> 01:22:23,920 Brewers is a possibility of somebody that we could see. And again you got 1197 01:22:23,920 --> 01:22:28,079 Bryce Young battling against it. Tyler Black just stole fifty five bases while hitting 1198 01:22:28,119 --> 01:22:32,039 eighteen homers and a two eighty four batting average. You said, Bryce Young, 1199 01:22:32,479 --> 01:22:34,960 Oh, I'm sorry, yeah, yeah, Bryce looking at I was 1200 01:22:35,000 --> 01:22:39,319 looking at a same level of prospect, right, yeah, yeah, Bryce 1201 01:22:39,399 --> 01:22:42,560 Trank. So, Tyler Black and Ryan Bliss are two guys that jump out. 1202 01:22:42,600 --> 01:22:45,720 I think there's a litany of other players. But here's the other thing 1203 01:22:45,720 --> 01:22:49,159 I want to point out is shortstops could end up filling that gap as well. 1204 01:22:49,279 --> 01:22:54,000 So that's where things get a little bit wonky. I'm not saying they 1205 01:22:54,039 --> 01:22:56,960 would do this, but you know, there's always a possibility. A guy 1206 01:22:57,000 --> 01:23:00,119 like Jackson Holliday could go there, Jordan Lawler could go there. Jackson Merrill 1207 01:23:00,319 --> 01:23:06,359 is more likely if the Padres where to trade hasan kim get your sites immediately 1208 01:23:06,399 --> 01:23:10,439 on Jackson Merrill with the Padres, because that's a guy that would move over 1209 01:23:10,479 --> 01:23:13,920 to second base. He's a high contact hitter, only hit fifteen homers and 1210 01:23:13,960 --> 01:23:15,960 like fifteen stolen bases this past year, but he would be one of those 1211 01:23:16,000 --> 01:23:21,119 guys. Also throwing out guys like Kolsa Montgomery, Luisan Helakunya, and Thomas 1212 01:23:21,199 --> 01:23:26,279 A. Jac Those are players that could move over to second base pending trades 1213 01:23:26,319 --> 01:23:30,520 that happen. Akunya sa j C both have hit triple A already, so 1214 01:23:30,680 --> 01:23:35,920 that's why their possibility and Kolson Montgomery is pretty close to ready. Just saying 1215 01:23:35,960 --> 01:23:40,960 that those could be guys that move over to second base, pending what happens. 1216 01:23:41,600 --> 01:23:45,920 But again we'll see into the offseason in camps and that'll be a part 1217 01:23:45,960 --> 01:23:49,199 of that'll be and end up being a part of those rank episodes. But 1218 01:23:49,439 --> 01:23:53,520 as far as profiles go, we got some prospects for you, We got 1219 01:23:53,560 --> 01:23:57,560 the big guys. You guys make your decisions. Don't let us completely influence 1220 01:23:57,600 --> 01:24:00,640 you on how you guys want to rank them in this offseas and that is 1221 01:24:00,680 --> 01:24:03,840 it coming up. It's a big one shortstop. We're going to stay in 1222 01:24:03,880 --> 01:24:09,640 the infield shortstops, very big episode. We'll be profiling those guys next week, 1223 01:24:09,840 --> 01:24:12,960 leading us to third base, outfield pitching, and then we are going 1224 01:24:13,000 --> 01:24:15,199 to get into our main season schedule, which is going to have lots of 1225 01:24:15,199 --> 01:24:17,479 stuff and interaction from you guys as well. You want to be a part 1226 01:24:17,520 --> 01:24:20,159 of our mock drafts, bam. You want to be on the Patreon, 1227 01:24:20,199 --> 01:24:24,319 You want to get the ranks early bam, Patreon and everything else. So 1228 01:24:24,359 --> 01:24:27,199 go to end this League dot com. You'll be notified of all the stuff 1229 01:24:27,239 --> 01:24:30,760 we do. We also in the new year, we've toyed around with this 1230 01:24:30,960 --> 01:24:33,720 and we've kind of talked about this. We may be doing a listener only 1231 01:24:33,880 --> 01:24:38,600 Answer episode in the off season on Patreon as well, just like you know, 1232 01:24:38,680 --> 01:24:42,479 twenty thirty minute episode once a week where we're just answering questions. So 1233 01:24:42,520 --> 01:24:45,920 you want to have access to that and more in this League dot com, 1234 01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:47,760 come and sign up today. We really appreciate you guys' support because you guys 1235 01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:51,640 are literally supporting this podcast when you do it, so thank you so much. 1236 01:24:51,720 --> 01:24:55,520 That's that's all that we got. There's lots of great stuff going on 1237 01:24:55,560 --> 01:24:59,239 in the off season with us. Check out Prospect One where I'm talking Dynasty 1238 01:24:59,279 --> 01:25:02,520 prospects, Dynasty Pod on Fantasy Pros if you want some of that and just 1239 01:25:02,560 --> 01:25:06,039 be on the lookout for more baseball content. You can find him on Twitter 1240 01:25:06,079 --> 01:25:11,279 at Bogman sports me at is It the Welsh. Until next time, friends, 1241 01:25:11,319 --> 01:25:15,439 more profiles coming your way right here on End this League, so Yer